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What The Turkey Problem and The Black Swan Teach About Life? · Deep Thoughts

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to Deep Thoughts, a podcast designed to take you
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  Speaker 2: Hey everyone, and welcome to a deep dive that's going
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  Speaker 2: to challenge some of our assumption about the world. We're
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  Speaker 2: talking about the Turkey problem. And before you think, wait,
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  Speaker 2: is this a Thanksgiving special? Trust me, it's much deeper
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  Speaker 2: than that.
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  Speaker 3: It really is. It's a fascinating look at risk, decision making,
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  Speaker 3: and even personal growth, all wrapped up in this kind
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  Speaker 3: of quirky little story.
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  Speaker 2: So set the stage for us. What's this whole Turkey
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  Speaker 2: problem about?
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  Speaker 3: Okay, picture this your turkey living on a farm. Life
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  Speaker 3: is good, You've got sunshine, you've got plenty of space
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  Speaker 3: to roam around, sounds like dyllick, and every single day
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  Speaker 3: the farmer shows up like clockwork with a big bucket
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  Speaker 3: of delicious food.
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  Speaker 2: Not of care in the world.
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  Speaker 3: Right from the turkey's perspective, this is just how things are.
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  Speaker 3: Why would anything ever change? But then Thanksgiving comes along.
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  Speaker 2: Oh no, I think I see where this is going exactly.
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  Speaker 2: The trucky, never seeing it coming, gets a very rude awakening,
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  Speaker 2: and that, in essence is the Turkey problem. We get
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  Speaker 2: so comfortable with patterns that we mistake them for guarantees. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: I see the analogy, but we're not turkey's on a farm.
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  Speaker 2: How does this apply to us humans in the real world?
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  Speaker 3: Think about it. But we do the same thing all
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  Speaker 3: the time, don't we. That stable job that's been there
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  Speaker 3: for years, that long term relationship that's become more routine
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  Speaker 3: than exciting.
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  Speaker 2: You're saying, we start to assume these things will always
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  Speaker 2: be there exactly.
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  Speaker 3: We fall into this trap of thinking, well, this is
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  Speaker 3: how it is, this is how it'll always be, and
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  Speaker 3: that's when we become vulnerable.
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  Speaker 2: Wow, it's like that feeling of security can actually blind
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  Speaker 2: us to potential risks.
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. It's like building a house on a foundation of well,
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  Speaker 3: it's always been this way, right. And while it's great
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  Speaker 3: to be optimistic, we don't want to be so optimistic
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  Speaker 3: that we ignore warning signs or fail to prepare for,
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  Speaker 3: you know, disruptions.
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  Speaker 2: So how do we avoid becoming Thanksgiving dinner metaphorically? Speaking
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  Speaker 2: of course, are we supposed to walk around constantly worrying
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  Speaker 2: about what could go wrong?
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  Speaker 3: No, not at all. It's not about living in fear.
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  Speaker 3: It's more about what I call informed optimism. You can
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  Speaker 3: still hope for the best, but acknowledge that unexpected things
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  Speaker 3: do happen, and have a plan for how you'll respond
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  Speaker 3: Informed optimism.
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  Speaker 2: I like that. So what are some practical steps we
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  Speaker 2: can take? How do we move away from that blind
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  Speaker 2: trust in patterns?
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  Speaker 3: Well? One powerful tool is scenario planning. Imagine different what
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  Speaker 3: if scenarios right? What if your industry is disrupted? What
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  Speaker 3: if a key relationship in your life changes dramatically? Thinking
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  Speaker 3: through those possibilities, even if they're uncomfortable, can help you
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  Speaker 3: develop the flexibility and resilience to adapt.
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  Speaker 2: So it's like having an escape route plan before the
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  Speaker 2: fire breaks out. You don't want to be figuring it
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  Speaker 2: out in the heat of the moment. Yeah, but isn't
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  Speaker 2: there a risk of getting too caught up in all
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  Speaker 2: the what IFFs?
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  Speaker 3: It's a balance for sure. That's where the informed part
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  Speaker 3: of optimism comes in. You want to be prepared, not paralyzed.
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  Speaker 3: So it's not about obsessing over every possible risk, but
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  Speaker 3: identifying the most impactful ones and thinking, Okay, if this happened,
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  Speaker 3: what would I do?
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  Speaker 2: That makes sense? So it's about diversifying our skills, building
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  Speaker 2: strong networks, yes, and really cultivating a mindset that sees
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  Speaker 2: change as an opportunity not just a.
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  Speaker 3: Threat exactly, because look, you can't prevent every Thanksgiving from
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  Speaker 3: happening in life, but you can certainly do a lot
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  Speaker 3: to make sure you're not the turkey on the pable
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  Speaker 3: when it does.
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  Speaker 2: Well said, But I'm curious about something you mentioned earlier, gratitude.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, how does gratitude fit in with a concept
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  Speaker 2: that highlights all these potential risks and disruptions it seems
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  Speaker 2: a bit a bit counterintuitive.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it might seem that way at first glance, but
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  Speaker 3: think about it. The Turkey story highlights the fact that
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  Speaker 3: nothing is truly permanent, right, And while that can be
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  Speaker 3: a little unsettling, it can also be a powerful motivator
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  Speaker 3: for gratitude.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I see what you mean. If we just assume
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  Speaker 2: things will always stay the same, we take them for granted.
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  Speaker 2: But knowing that change is well inevitable, makes us appreciate
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  Speaker 2: what we have, you know, right now, while we.
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  Speaker 3: Still have it exactly. It's about finding that balance between
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  Speaker 3: acknowledging potential risks but also really savoring the present moment.
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  Speaker 3: Gratitude isn't about ignoring the need for preparation. It's about
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  Speaker 3: enriching how we experience the journey, even amidst uncertainty.
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  Speaker 2: So it's like, instead of just worrying about what we
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  Speaker 2: might lose, we're also celebrating what we have in this
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  Speaker 2: moment precisely.
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  Speaker 3: And this leads to a really interesting question. Can gratitude
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  Speaker 3: and preparedness actually coexist? And I think they not only can,
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  Speaker 3: but they should. Think of a ship captain, for example,
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  Speaker 3: they might deeply appreciate the beauty of the ocean, but
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  Speaker 3: are also meticulous about maintaining their ship and planning their
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  Speaker 3: course to navigate potential storms. Right. It's a beautiful blend
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  Speaker 3: of appreciation and awareness.
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  Speaker 2: That's a fantastic analogy. That image of the captain grateful
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  Speaker 2: but prepared really resonates.
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  Speaker 3: Now.
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  Speaker 2: You also mentioned that this whole turkey problem has implications
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  Speaker 2: for our relationships. Can you expand on that a bit?
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  Speaker 3: Sure? Just like that turkey who takes the farmer's daily
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  Speaker 3: feeding for granted, we sometimes do the same thing with
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  Speaker 3: the people in our lives. We assume they'll always be there,
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  Speaker 3: fulfilling these certain roles, that the dynamics will never change.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's easy to fall into that trap, especially in
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  Speaker 2: long term relationships where you've established these routines and become
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  Speaker 2: well comfortable.
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  Speaker 3: Right, and then life throws a curveball, Just like Thanksgiving
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  Speaker 3: for the turkey, people change, circumstances change, and if we're
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  Speaker 3: not actively nurturing those connections and being willing to adapt,
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  Speaker 3: we might end up facing our own relational Thanksgiving moments.
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  Speaker 2: Oooh, that's a powerful and a bit unsettling image. Nobody
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  Speaker 2: wants to wake up one day and realize they've been
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  Speaker 2: taking their loved ones for granted, So what's the antidote?
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  Speaker 2: How do we avoid those kinds of situations?
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  Speaker 3: Communication is key, right, It's about checking in, expressing appreciation,
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  Speaker 3: and having those tough conversations about changing needs and expectations,
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  Speaker 3: and just like preparing for those risks in our own lives,
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  Speaker 3: it's about being proactive in our relationships, not reactive.
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  Speaker 2: So it's not enough to just hope our relationship stay strong.
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  Speaker 2: We need to invest in them and be willing to
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  Speaker 2: adapt as we grow and change.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely, and I think this actually loops back to the
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  Speaker 3: idea of anti fragility. Just like resilient individuals, strong relationships
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  Speaker 3: can weather storms, adapt to change, even become stronger because
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  Speaker 3: of those challenges. But it takes work, awareness and a
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  Speaker 3: willingness to be a little uncomfortable, a little vulnerable at times.
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  Speaker 2: So maybe instead of fearing those potential disruptions in our relationships,
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  Speaker 2: we can see them as opportunities to deepen our connection,
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  Speaker 2: you know, to build something even stronger, kind of like
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  Speaker 2: the saying smooth seas never made a skilled sailor exactly.
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  Speaker 3: And on that note, I think it's time we shifted
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  Speaker 3: gears a bit and explore how the turkey problem can
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  Speaker 3: challenge our very definition of success.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, now you've really got me intrigued. We've gone from
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  Speaker 2: risk to gratitude to relationships. What in the world can
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  Speaker 2: a turkey on a farm teach us about success?
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  Speaker 3: It's surprisingly relevant. Think back to that turkey. If it had,
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  Speaker 3: you know, a concept of success, it would been based
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  Speaker 3: on that predictable life, regular food, comfy routine, no worries, right,
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  Speaker 3: total security exactly. But as we've seen, that kind of
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  Speaker 3: success is fragile, easily shattered.
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  Speaker 2: It's like basing your career on the hot skills right
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  Speaker 2: now without thinking about what happens if those skills become
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  Speaker 2: obsolete in a few years.
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  Speaker 3: Exactly, Or putting all your eggs in one basket with
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  Speaker 3: an investment that seems like a sure thing. If we
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  Speaker 3: define success by those predictable patterns, while we're setting ourselves
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  Speaker 3: up for a big fall when those patterns change, and
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  Speaker 3: they always do eventually.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, that's a sobering thought. So if we can't rely
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  Speaker 2: on those traditional markers of success, how should we define it,
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  Speaker 2: especially in a world that's so unpredictable.
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  Speaker 3: I think true success is all about adaptability. Being able
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  Speaker 3: to pivot, to adjust, to even thrive when things get messy,
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  Speaker 3: because you can't avoid disruptions altogether.
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  Speaker 2: Right, So instead of trying to create this perfect smooth path,
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  Speaker 2: it's more about becoming a skilled driver who can navigate
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  Speaker 2: the bumps, maybe even use them to our advantage.
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. It's about developing that inner compass that keeps you
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  Speaker 3: grounded and your values, your goals, your purpose even when
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  Speaker 3: the world around you is in chaos, and those thanksgiving moments,
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  Speaker 3: those disruptions, they become opportunities to reevaluate, to reinvent yourself
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  Speaker 3: and come out stronger on the other side.
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  Speaker 2: This has been such a fascinating deep dive. It's like
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  Speaker 2: you've given us a whole new way of thinking about risk, relationships,
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  Speaker 2: even success itself. So any final words of wisdom as
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  Speaker 2: we wrap.
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  Speaker 3: Up, remember the Turkey problem reminds us that growth isn't
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  Speaker 3: about avoiding risk altogether. It's about understanding it, preparing for it,
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  Speaker 3: and using it to our advantage. Change is inevitable, but
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  Speaker 3: it's also an opportunity to learn, adapt, and evolve.
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  Speaker 2: Well said, And on that note, we'll leave you with this.
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  Speaker 2: If you could go back and whisper some advice to
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  Speaker 2: that turkey. Knowing what you know now about the Turkey problem,
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  Speaker 2: what would it be? Thanks for joining us on this
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  Speaker 2: deep dive.
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