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The Muster- Phil Duncan: Weather Watch · The Muster on Hokonui

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Today I don't feel like doing anything.
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  Speaker 2: Welcome back to the muster. Time to catch up with
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  Speaker 2: Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch.
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  Speaker 1: And I'm here to remind you of the mess you
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  Speaker 1: left when you went away. It's not fair to deny
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  Speaker 1: me of the crisis.
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  Speaker 2: Good afternoon, Phil.
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  Speaker 3: Good afternoon.
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: If Alanis Morissette ever went to Australia, we should almost
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: do a muster trip over there. She doesn't like New Zealand.
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: Have her live in the background doing You Oughta Know.
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  Speaker 2: How good would that be?
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  Speaker 3: That would be fun. Yeah, I do actually like her
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  Speaker 3: music too. Although I didn't really like her album that
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  Speaker 3: she put out, like the last one that she put out,
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  Speaker 3: which was quite a while ago now.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, they all go alternative, but Jagged Little Pill, that
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  Speaker 2: is an album for the ages.
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  Speaker 3: Absolutely. It's right up there with Brian Adams' one with
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  Speaker 3: the wheel on it. What was that one? The Muddy Tire.
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  Speaker 2: Don't Boris Get to the Chorus? No, that was Roxette.
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  Speaker 3: It was early 90s anyway, so I had that contest.
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  Speaker 2: Oh, Waking Up the Neighbours.
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  Speaker 3: That was it, yeah.
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  Speaker 2: There we go. All the big issues here on the
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  Speaker 2: muster as well as the weather. What's happening for the
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  Speaker 2: next seven days has been not too bad this week.
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  Speaker 3: Well, this week is not going to feel like El
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  Speaker 3: Nino around the country. This is going to feel more
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  Speaker 3: like La Nina because we've got more humidity, subtropical winds,
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  Speaker 3: and we've got thunderstorms and downpours. Now I'm talking about
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  Speaker 3: the country, I'm not talking about Southland so much, but
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  Speaker 3: the whole country is under more low pressure. In fact,
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  Speaker 3: we've got three low-pressure zones, large ones, that are coming
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  Speaker 3: into New Zealand with the first arriving tomorrow. It falls apart,
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  Speaker 3: but it arrives tomorrow. The next one comes in the
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  Speaker 3: middle of next week. And the third one, which may
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  Speaker 3: only affect the top of the North Island, but that
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  Speaker 3: could come in next weekend. So it is a bit
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  Speaker 3: of a different week at the moment. And at the moment,
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  Speaker 3: your temperatures today, like through the roof, today's a hot
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  Speaker 3: day in Southland. Mid-20s at least. So there could be 25s, 26s,
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  Speaker 3: maybe even 27s around Southland today. But it does drop
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  Speaker 3: tomorrow to around 19, 18 degrees and 17 or 18 degrees.
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  Speaker 3: on Sunday, and Monday gets cooler still because you've got
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  Speaker 3: an easterly coming in on Monday, and that easterly is
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  Speaker 3: actually being dredged up from south of New Zealand. So
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  Speaker 3: your maximum on Monday is 15. But by Tuesday next week,
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  Speaker 3: you're back to 21. 19 on Wednesday. Your next cold day,
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  Speaker 3: proper one, isn't for another week. Next Friday, forecast to
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  Speaker 3: have a high of 13 and a low of 5.
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  Speaker 3: But pretty much every other night, double-digit temperatures.
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  Speaker 2: Mind you, though, this time last week, it was a
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  Speaker 2: high of 7 or 8.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, we're at that part of spring where
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  Speaker 3: you're still getting a cold blast or a cold snap
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  Speaker 3: once a week or so, but there'll be more days
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  Speaker 3: now that are warm, and you'll probably now start, as
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  Speaker 3: we're getting today, you'll get more of these days where
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  Speaker 3: you suddenly have, you know, like a summer-like day where
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  Speaker 3: the temperatures are well into the 20s. So it's up
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  Speaker 3: and down, but the downs are getting fewer and far between.
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  Speaker 3: But because we do have an El Nino at the moment...
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  Speaker 3: the spring changes will go on through into summer. So
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  Speaker 3: we will get some cold days in summer, which is
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  Speaker 3: like not breaking news, but it's just a sign that,
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  Speaker 3: you know, there will be those days, I think, over
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  Speaker 3: summer where we talk about there will be possibly a
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  Speaker 3: frost and we might get a dusting of snow. That's
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  Speaker 3: not every single day, but we've had this in the
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  Speaker 3: past in Southland with El Nino. It can be a
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  Speaker 3: little relentless with spring not wanting to sort of quit.
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  Speaker 3: But at the moment, yeah, make the most of this weather.
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  Speaker 3: It's subtropical or at least it's warmer than usual.
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  Speaker 2: To be honest, I thought heading into November, though, like
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  Speaker 2: you said, the end of October would be pleasant. But
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  Speaker 2: I thought around now it was going to be rather cool.
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  Speaker 2: But like you say, it's not too bad.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's this break in the way that the highs,
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  Speaker 3: the big highs are placed at the moment. And so,
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  Speaker 3: you know, for the last couple of months, they've been
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  Speaker 3: nonstop streaming out of southern Australia and across the Tasman
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  Speaker 3: Sea and north of New Zealand. But just lately, the
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  Speaker 3: highs have gone further south of Australia, and the other
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  Speaker 3: ones have gone further north of New Zealand, up over
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  Speaker 3: the Coral Sea. And that's leaving this huge vacuum of
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  Speaker 3: low pressure, which is forming in the Tasman. And so
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  Speaker 3: we've still got high pressure east of New Zealand. We've
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  Speaker 3: got the next high that'll be tracking out, as I say,
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  Speaker 3: to the south of Australia. So between all of that,
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  Speaker 3: we've got low pressure, and that's why we're getting these
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  Speaker 3: temperature changes and swings. This week, this next seven or
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  Speaker 3: eight days ahead... is a little bit different to what
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  Speaker 3: we've been in the last couple of months, but it's
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  Speaker 3: very good timing for those in the North Island because,
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  Speaker 3: like I say, we have seen the North Island getting
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  Speaker 3: close to drought. There are some parts that are very dry,
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  Speaker 3: and so having this rain coming through with 150, 200
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  Speaker 3: millimetres for some parts of the North Island is going
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  Speaker 3: to be very welcome, while you guys are getting a
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  Speaker 3: drying-out phase to some degree. In saying that, though, you've
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  Speaker 3: had some rain, you've had some dry areas, and Southland,
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  Speaker 3: for the most part, is bang on where it should be.
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  Speaker 3: The soil moisture maps show a lot of green, whether
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  Speaker 3: that is the lighter green, which is bang on average,
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  Speaker 3: or slightly darker green, which is showing just a little
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  Speaker 3: bit wetter than usual, maybe 10 or 20 millimetres more
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  Speaker 3: than usual. But all of that's pretty much putting Southland
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  Speaker 3: in one of the healthiest grass-growing setups at the moment
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  Speaker 3: of any other region in the country.
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  Speaker 2: Well, our soil temperature's rolling the early teens onwards. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah. Things are lifting up, and there's lack of frost
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  Speaker 3: that we've got at the moment for the next week ahead.
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  Speaker 3: No frost, so that's going to also help.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, so when we look through into the end of November,
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  Speaker 2: everything is just going to be proving, everything is just
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  Speaker 2: going to be El Nino. I don't know how you
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  Speaker 2: describe it.
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  Speaker 3: The way I'm describing El Nino is that compared to
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  Speaker 3: La Nina, it's not very sexy. So La Nina... It's
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  Speaker 3: in the news all the time because we get these
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  Speaker 3: high humidity days with very, very tropical weather, a lot
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  Speaker 3: of downpours and thunderstorms, hail, flash floods, and more tropical cyclones.
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  Speaker 3: Even if those cyclones don't hit New Zealand, the fact
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  Speaker 3: that we're talking about cyclone whatever that's up around the
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  Speaker 3: Coral Sea or cyclone whatever that's out towards Fiji, there's
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  Speaker 3: lots of things to talk about. El Niño is not
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  Speaker 3: like that. El Niño is like an extended spring and
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  Speaker 3: autumn cyclone. It sometimes produces thunderstorms. It sometimes produces gales.
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  Speaker 3: But a lot of the time, 80% of the time,
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  Speaker 3: it's just a little bit cloudy. It's a little bit unsettled.
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  Speaker 3: There might be a shower. None of it's spectacular. None
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  Speaker 3: of it makes the news. And as I mentioned in
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  Speaker 3: my video today, if you're a townie, if you live
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  Speaker 3: in the town or the city, it's even less interesting.
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  Speaker 3: So it's not until you talk to farmers and growers
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  Speaker 3: and gardeners and those on rainwater tanks and suddenly they're
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  Speaker 3: the ones saying it's really dry, despite the showers we're
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  Speaker 3: getting every couple of days, the rainfall's tapering off. And
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  Speaker 3: so that's why in my video today at Weather Watch,
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  Speaker 3: I put up the soil moisture map to show, you know,
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  Speaker 3: there are parts of the North Island that are getting
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  Speaker 3: into the extremely dry category, even though if you ask
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  Speaker 3: most North Islanders what's the weather been like, they'd go, eh,
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  Speaker 3: a bit average. So El Nino's boring, and it takes
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  Speaker 3: months for it to be noticed, whereas La Nina, it
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  Speaker 3: could take a week, and you've suddenly got a flood,
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  Speaker 3: And everyone goes, oh, that's what La Nina looks like.
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  Speaker 2: Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch, we always appreciate your time on
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  Speaker 2: the muster. Enjoy the weekend.
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  Speaker 3: I will. Don't forget to vote. Not that anyone would, but,
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  Speaker 3: you know, don't forget to vote.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: Phil Duncan of Weatherwatch, every Friday here on the muster.
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Go and follow him on his YouTube channel and other socials.
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: Up next, Steve Henderson.