Transcript

Hot Stove Summer! · Politix

0:00
Maybe we should like work this out,
0:01
workshop it together on the other side of the paywall.
0:05
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
0:05
SPEAKER_01: Yes, let's do it.
0:07
SPEAKER_01: Actually, our ideas on the other side of the paywall are amazing.
0:09
SPEAKER_01: Really well worked out and will save everything.
0:13
But we are going to charge Chuck Schumer $5 a month so that he
0:17
can find out how to
0:18
SPEAKER_01: fix everything.
0:24
Hey,
0:24
everyone,
0:24
you're listening to a free preview of the politics podcast.
0:27
SPEAKER_00: You may have heard the resistance's favorite new acronym taco,
0:31
SPEAKER_00: which stands for Trump always chickens out.
0:35
SPEAKER_00: Sometimes he does, sometimes he doesn't.
0:37
SPEAKER_00: But the premise of this episode is that he does this on again,
0:41
SPEAKER_00: off again,
0:42
advanced retreat dance reliably enough that he avoids lasting
0:46
blowback for causing
0:48
SPEAKER_00: lasting damage.
0:49
SPEAKER_00: So we'll run through some examples and then pose the question.
0:53
SPEAKER_00: Would we be better off if he stopped chickening out?
0:56
Is it time for everyone,
0:58
but particularly for his supporters,
1:00
to really find out the hard way?
1:02
Or should liberals and Democrats still be doing whatever's in
1:04
our power to
1:06
SPEAKER_00: forestall at least some of the harms he threatens to cause?
1:10
SPEAKER_00: So if you want to hear the whole conversation,
1:11
SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
1:19
SPEAKER_00: Hey everyone, welcome to the Politics Podcast.
1:21
SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
1:22
SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Iglesias.
1:24
SPEAKER_00: So here's how I want to introduce this week's topic.
1:26
Donald Trump has been much more active in his first 100 to 200
1:30
days this time
1:31
SPEAKER_00: around than he was in 2017.
1:33
A lot of the stuff he's done or that he's allowed the people
1:37
working under him to
1:38
SPEAKER_00: do is actually very unpopular,
1:40
SPEAKER_00: but he is less unpopular now than he was eight years ago.
1:46
SPEAKER_00: And that might be for a number of reasons.
1:47
It might be because as as we resistance libs like to say,
1:52
Trump always chickens out.
1:55
But we have we have a range of issue areas where Trump really
1:58
is flirting with
1:59
SPEAKER_00: political and substantive disasters.
2:01
SPEAKER_00: That's like tariffs.
2:03
SPEAKER_00: Mass deportation, steep cuts to Medicaid.
2:07
SPEAKER_00: Now, this week, war with Iran.
2:09
SPEAKER_00: And it raises a question on a lot of anti-Trump people's minds,
2:14
SPEAKER_00: which is,
2:15
SPEAKER_00: should we all be accelerationists now?
2:17
SPEAKER_00: Should we,
2:18
SPEAKER_00: in some sense,
2:19
be rooting for Trump to not chicken out so that he gets into a
2:24
quagmire and loses
2:25
SPEAKER_00: most of his power?
2:26
SPEAKER_00: So I got a lot of thoughts about this.
2:27
SPEAKER_00: But Matt, do you want to give us your two cents?
2:30
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, you know, obviously on some level, the answer is obvious.
2:34
SPEAKER_01: Like, it depends.
2:36
SPEAKER_01: But, you know, I mean, I think about it a lot.
2:38
SPEAKER_01: You know, so this idea of the taco trade came out of Wall Street, right?
2:45
SPEAKER_01: The idea of the taco trade was when Trump makes some kind of trade policy
2:50
SPEAKER_01: announcement that causes markets to crash,
2:54
SPEAKER_01: you should buy the dip.
2:56
SPEAKER_01: Because Trump always chickens out.
2:59
SPEAKER_01: And I think it's important to understand that like.
3:02
SPEAKER_01: That's a pro-Trump take, you know what I mean?
3:06
Like it is a take coming from Wall Street guys who are like
3:10
inclined to look
3:12
SPEAKER_01: favorably on Republicans.
3:14
And like literally the advice is like invest in America during
3:19
downturns because
3:20
SPEAKER_01: the Trump administration in the end will be good for the stock market.
3:24
SPEAKER_01: Now,
3:24
it's also true that if you are not like a businessman who's
3:29
obsessed with money,
3:30
SPEAKER_01: but you're like a politics nerd who's obsessed with politics,
3:34
SPEAKER_01: that taco trade is making fun of Donald Trump.
3:37
SPEAKER_01: Right.
3:38
And so,
3:38
like,
3:38
if you don't like Donald Trump,
3:40
the idea of mocking him is obviously appealing.
3:44
SPEAKER_01: And I also enjoy mocking Donald Trump.
3:47
SPEAKER_01: and think it's funny that Trump is this tough guy, but he does in fact.
3:52
I would not say he always chickens out,
3:54
but he definitely sometimes chickens out.
3:57
He's much less of a tough guy than he likes to make himself out
3:59
to be,
4:00
and I enjoy that.
4:01
I also thought it was funny when he was asked about the taco
4:05
trade at a press
4:06
SPEAKER_01: conference,
4:07
SPEAKER_00: and he became—
4:08
SPEAKER_01: visibly irritated.
4:10
SPEAKER_01: And then he started tweeting about more tariffs.
4:13
SPEAKER_01: So I was like, OK, ha ha ha, taco, taco, taco.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: But Pat Dennis from from American Bridge,
4:19
SPEAKER_01: you know,
4:19
SPEAKER_01: he wrote an op ed in The Washington Post,
4:21
SPEAKER_01: which like I thought was good,
4:23
SPEAKER_01: which was like,
4:24
SPEAKER_01: You you want to scare people about Trump.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: You don't want to reassure them about Trump.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: Right.
4:30
SPEAKER_01: Like like taco is a funny meme,
4:33
SPEAKER_01: but like actually Trump has Trump has done two steps forward,
4:37
one step back on tariffs about 50 times over the course of his
4:42
presidency.
4:43
SPEAKER_01: The upshot is that tariffs are actually a lot higher.
4:46
SPEAKER_01: than they were before Trump became president.
4:49
SPEAKER_01: And, like, this is raising the cost of living for Americans.
4:52
SPEAKER_01: It's hurting American manufacturing.
4:54
SPEAKER_01: It has degraded the value of the dollar,
4:57
SPEAKER_01: ultimately,
4:58
SPEAKER_01: throughout all these gyrations and uncertainty.
5:00
SPEAKER_01: And, like, that's all bad, right?
5:01
SPEAKER_01: And,
5:01
SPEAKER_01: like,
5:02
SPEAKER_01: the thing you want to emphasize as the,
5:04
SPEAKER_01: you know,
5:05
SPEAKER_01: head of an APA research super PAC,
5:08
SPEAKER_01: which is...
5:09
SPEAKER_01: Pat's job.
5:10
But I mean,
5:10
like,
5:10
I think in general in life is that like,
5:12
yeah,
5:12
like Trump is doing bad stuff.
5:14
You know,
5:15
I was looking back on some commentary on Javier Millet in
5:20
Argentina,
5:21
actually.
5:21
SPEAKER_01: And like before the election,
5:23
SPEAKER_01: a lot of people were like,
5:24
SPEAKER_01: Millet is going to like wreck the country's economy.
5:27
SPEAKER_01: Actually, the country's economy has done well under him.
5:30
SPEAKER_01: So I saw some people dunking on the people who warned.
5:34
But like Milley actually hasn't done the radical dollarization
5:38
of the Argentine
5:39
SPEAKER_01: economy that he that he ran on.
5:42
SPEAKER_01: Right.
5:42
SPEAKER_01: So like to an extent, it's like a taco situation, which has been good.
5:48
SPEAKER_00: That'd be Mako, I think.
5:50
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, sure.
5:51
SPEAKER_01: But like but like that's been good for Argentina.
5:54
People who are trying to talk me into being nicer to Zorhan
6:00
Mamdami in New York
6:01
keep emphasizing to me that like a lot of his crazy ideas are
6:07
like not going to
6:08
SPEAKER_01: happen,
6:08
SPEAKER_01: actually.
6:09
SPEAKER_01: And so I should feel comfortable supporting the like young,
6:13
SPEAKER_01: charismatic,
6:14
SPEAKER_01: non corrupt guy over the like sleazy Cuomo.
6:18
SPEAKER_01: Right.
6:18
SPEAKER_01: This is again like this is a common form of politics.
6:22
SPEAKER_01: Right.
6:22
You are trying to shore up a politician's support by like
6:27
reassuring people that
6:29
SPEAKER_01: they're not actually going to going to do the thing.
6:32
And so I just I think that's an important messaging point to
6:35
keep in mind since we
6:36
SPEAKER_01: can't control what Trump actually does.
6:40
SPEAKER_01: You know,
6:41
just like you want to tell people about the bad things that
6:46
Trump is doing,
6:47
not like mock him for having some semblance of political
6:52
caution about the
6:54
SPEAKER_01: activities he's orchestrating.
6:55
SPEAKER_01: Similarly with this Iran thing,
6:57
like I can't tell actually what Trump's policy vis-a-vis Israel
7:02
and Iran is.
7:04
SPEAKER_01: There's like seven different accounts of what's happening.
7:08
SPEAKER_01: But like,
7:08
SPEAKER_01: as a political point,
7:11
SPEAKER_01: I think the thing to say is that like Trump,
7:13
SPEAKER_01: who said he was going to bring peace to the Middle East,
7:17
SPEAKER_01: seems to have only accelerated the range of conflicts there.
7:20
SPEAKER_01: Like,
7:21
SPEAKER_01: I don't know exactly what he's telling Netanyahu on or off the record,
7:26
SPEAKER_01: how his public statements add up to each other,
7:28
SPEAKER_01: or even frankly,
7:29
SPEAKER_01: like 100% know what the right thing to do in this situation is.
7:33
SPEAKER_01: But it's like Trump said he was going to make things calmer and safer.
7:38
SPEAKER_01: more dangerous.
7:39
SPEAKER_01: So I think it's like simple as like a like a discourse question.
7:45
The harder question is like,
7:46
what outcome do I actually want to see in the world?
7:50
SPEAKER_01: Like,
7:51
do I want Trump to go back to the Liberation Day tariffs or in
7:55
particular on
7:57
immigration where we just had like a big flurry of protest
8:01
activity and possibly
8:03
SPEAKER_01: some sign of policy change?
8:06
SPEAKER_00: So, yeah, a lot of thoughts about all that.
8:09
One is that you should not support anyone in the New York
8:12
mayor's race because
8:12
SPEAKER_00: you're a resident of Washington,
8:14
SPEAKER_00: D.C.,
8:14
SPEAKER_00: and voting in New York would be illegal.
8:17
SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
8:19
SPEAKER_00: The second, totally on point.
8:20
SPEAKER_01: But I'm doing my voter fraud, you know.
8:24
SPEAKER_01: I think you don't need photo IDs, so I can just vote anywhere.
8:28
The second also completely on point thing is that I think that
8:32
the politics
8:33
situation in Argentina is different because they're so used to
8:36
people in power just
8:38
SPEAKER_00: completely destroying their economy.
8:41
They spend like two out of every 10 years in some kind of
8:44
horrible financial crisis.
8:46
SPEAKER_00: And so their expectations are a bit lower.
8:50
SPEAKER_00: And as a Chilean, I like to think it's because we stole their coastline.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: Nice, yeah.
8:55
SPEAKER_00: Now, on the actual topic,
9:00
I think the only thing I,
9:03
and I don't even think we necessarily disagree.
9:05
I think that you're drawing slightly too stark of a line
9:10
between the value of
9:12
SPEAKER_00: mocking Trump and the value of whipping up anti-Trump alarmism,
9:17
SPEAKER_00: right?
9:18
SPEAKER_00: Like both things are, I think, appropriate.
9:21
SPEAKER_00: The one thing I always want to avoid is any kind of
9:26
rhetoric that um imbues him with too much power like says like
9:30
this is not normal
9:31
we should be afraid it's like it's like a bad weak soft posture
9:36
to adopt um and so
9:37
you want to move a little in from there to sort of how you were
9:42
describing it that
9:43
like trump is threatening to do things that would really hurt
9:47
people and and should
9:49
be stopped from doing those things on the other side um like i
9:53
think mocking him
9:54
SPEAKER_00: especially on like
9:57
really frivolous things like that,
9:58
like what happened to taking over Greenland,
10:00
right?
10:00
SPEAKER_00: Like sure that, that is just mocking.
10:03
SPEAKER_00: Right.
10:05
And don't worry that you're going to create like make people
10:11
rest too easy because
10:12
they're going to be lulled into complacency because Trump
10:14
always chickens out.
10:16
SPEAKER_00: But obviously it's true that Trump doesn't literally always chicken out.
10:19
SPEAKER_00: I think like a more accurate statement,
10:21
description of what the resistance people mean is that Trump
10:29
never really fully
10:31
follows through on the most literal and aggressive reading of
10:37
the things he
10:37
SPEAKER_00: threatens.
10:38
SPEAKER_00: So that's why you have...
10:40
SPEAKER_00: the Liberation Day tariffs,
10:42
SPEAKER_00: and then the clawback,
10:43
SPEAKER_00: and then another clawback,
10:45
SPEAKER_00: and then maybe the reimposition of some.
10:47
SPEAKER_00: And we're sort of in a little bit of a no-man's land here on immigration,
10:51
because he basically unleashed Stephen Miller until people from
10:55
the recreation
10:56
SPEAKER_00: industry,
10:57
SPEAKER_00: the hotel industry,
10:58
SPEAKER_00: and agriculture were like,
11:01
SPEAKER_00: hey,
11:01
SPEAKER_00: this is causing real problems.
11:03
And so he announced a backtrack,
11:05
and now they announced a backtrack from the backtrack.
11:07
SPEAKER_00: And it's...
11:09
SPEAKER_00: it's sort of unclear where they end up.
11:12
SPEAKER_00: And like the,
11:13
SPEAKER_00: I would like,
11:15
SPEAKER_00: you know,
11:16
SPEAKER_00: the people who oppose Trump to come up with a way to convey this.
11:19
SPEAKER_00: That is both Trump is much more bark than bite,
11:25
SPEAKER_00: but the bite is still really bad and people need to fight it.
11:30
SPEAKER_00: And I don't know how you do that in a pithy way.
11:32
SPEAKER_00: But, but I also think that like,
11:36
There should be a lot of discernment should go into the
11:42
question of where to fight
11:44
SPEAKER_00: Trump versus where to let him just,
11:49
SPEAKER_00: like,
11:50
SPEAKER_00: fail.
11:52
And I've seen a few things out of Democrats over the last four
11:56
or five months that,
11:58
SPEAKER_00: like,
11:58
SPEAKER_00: I thought misinterpreted the situation.
12:01
There was this period where Senate Democrats were advancing
12:04
this bill that was going to...
12:07
like provide social security beneficiaries a boost so that they
12:10
could deal with the
12:12
SPEAKER_00: increased costs from his tariffs.
12:14
SPEAKER_00: And I thought that that was just stupid, right?
12:15
SPEAKER_00: Like you want people to feel the pain from the tariffs.
12:19
SPEAKER_00: You don't want to insulate him from the political harm by,
12:24
SPEAKER_00: by making it so that seniors can't tell,
12:26
SPEAKER_00: right?
12:26
SPEAKER_00: Because you've given them more money.
12:28
SPEAKER_00: Um,
12:30
SPEAKER_00: But at the same time,
12:31
I think beating him on things like starting wars or trying to
12:38
cut Medicaid or
12:39
SPEAKER_00: trying to do a mass deportation is good.
12:42
Because even though you don't end up with the big substantive
12:48
harms that would come
12:48
from war and ethnic cleansing and kicking 10 million people off
12:52
their health
12:53
SPEAKER_00: insurance,
12:54
SPEAKER_00: you beat him.
12:55
SPEAKER_00: He wants to do a thing and then...
12:57
SPEAKER_00: the people who want to beat him interceded and stopped him.
13:00
And that will tend to weaken him anyway,
13:03
even though we haven't really touched the hot stove.
13:06
SPEAKER_00: So that's sort of like the schema I use when I'm like,
13:10
SPEAKER_00: where does accelerationism end in like,
13:13
SPEAKER_00: you know,
13:15
SPEAKER_00: the agency,
13:16
like the small amount of power Democrats actually have and how
13:19
they should wield it
13:19
SPEAKER_00: begin.
13:20
SPEAKER_01: So, okay.
13:22
SPEAKER_01: So, you know, when it comes to a bill,
13:26
SPEAKER_01: Like, I think I definitely agree with you, right?
13:29
SPEAKER_01: So when Trump was trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act, that was bad.
13:34
The process of attempting to repeal it dragged his numbers down
13:39
because people didn't like it.
13:41
But then defeating him in the Senate,
13:43
I think,
13:43
was like a double win,
13:45
right?
13:45
Like,
13:45
it was a win for the American people because this bad
13:49
legislation didn't pass.
13:51
SPEAKER_01: But it also humiliated him politically.
13:54
SPEAKER_01: You know,
13:54
SPEAKER_01: because he he just lost,
13:58
SPEAKER_01: you know,
13:59
SPEAKER_01: like John McCain,
14:00
Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted no on a piece of
14:05
legislation that Trump had
14:06
SPEAKER_01: tied himself to.
14:08
SPEAKER_01: And it showed that,
14:09
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:10
SPEAKER_01: not only does Trump have some political weakness,
14:14
SPEAKER_01: but also that,
14:15
SPEAKER_01: like,
14:15
SPEAKER_01: all Democrats
14:18
SPEAKER_01: And the sanest,
14:19
most popular Republicans in the country are united in the
14:24
judgment that Trump's
14:25
SPEAKER_01: economic policy here is bad.
14:27
SPEAKER_01: So, like, that's good.
14:28
SPEAKER_01: I think it's going to be really hard to defeat the...
14:34
SPEAKER_01: one big,
14:34
beautiful bill act simply because the Republican margin in the
14:38
Senate is so much
14:39
SPEAKER_01: bigger.
14:40
SPEAKER_01: Their margin in the House is tiny.
14:42
And theoretically,
14:43
you should be able to block bills given that tiny margin in the
14:46
House.
14:46
But House Republican front line House Republicans are I don't
14:51
know if you can what
14:52
SPEAKER_01: terminology we can even use in this day and age,
14:55
but they do not have strong backbones or a high likelihood to
15:01
stand up to party
15:02
SPEAKER_01: leadership.
15:03
SPEAKER_01: But if we can beat this bill,
15:05
SPEAKER_01: I would love to,
15:06
SPEAKER_01: even though passing it would create some some backlash against Trump,
15:11
because my biggest political worry about about BBB is just that
15:15
like people aren't
15:16
SPEAKER_01: hearing enough about it and like ratcheting up the drama is good.
15:20
SPEAKER_01: And immigration,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: though,
15:21
SPEAKER_01: like I I wonder because I mean,
15:24
SPEAKER_01: just to recap what's been occurring,
15:26
SPEAKER_01: right?
15:28
SPEAKER_01: Trump rolled out a majority,
15:31
a bunch of different sort of aggressive enforcement actions at
15:35
roughly the same
15:36
SPEAKER_01: time,
15:36
SPEAKER_01: you know,
15:37
SPEAKER_01: in May as Stephen Miller was really taking the reins.
15:40
And,
15:40
you know,
15:41
he was saying to ICE,
15:43
like,
15:43
you're not arresting people fast enough.
15:46
Because what ICE had been doing is sort of going back to what
15:51
they did in Obama's
15:51
SPEAKER_01: first term,
15:53
SPEAKER_01: right,
15:53
which is the the low hanging fruit of immigration enforcement
15:57
is you go to the most
15:58
conservative jurisdictions where local law enforcement is like
16:02
most keyed up to
16:04
SPEAKER_01: cooperate with ICE.
16:05
SPEAKER_01: And you just like tell them,
16:07
SPEAKER_01: like,
16:07
SPEAKER_01: give us whoever you got,
16:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
16:09
SPEAKER_01: just like scour the jails for undocumented people.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: We'll pick them all up.
16:14
SPEAKER_01: We'll put them all in deportations.
16:16
SPEAKER_01: And it's easy.
16:17
SPEAKER_01: You know, it's easy work.
16:19
SPEAKER_01: You hit numbers.
16:20
So Stephen Miller said that they weren't getting the volume of
16:25
arrests that he
16:26
SPEAKER_01: wanted out of this.
16:27
SPEAKER_01: And so he asked them to do two things, separate but related.
16:32
SPEAKER_01: One was like, go to workplaces.
16:36
where we have reason to believe on the basis of our general
16:39
knowledge that like
16:40
SPEAKER_01: there are a lot of undocumented people working.
16:42
SPEAKER_01: I think,
16:43
SPEAKER_01: you know,
16:44
SPEAKER_01: there was a specific verbiage about Home Depot,
16:46
SPEAKER_01: which,
16:46
SPEAKER_01: again,
16:47
SPEAKER_01: not talking politics,
16:48
SPEAKER_01: like just talking to my friends.
16:50
SPEAKER_01: If you need some work done around the house,
16:52
there's guys in the parking lot of Home Depot who are willing
16:55
to do odd jobs for
16:57
SPEAKER_01: cash.
16:59
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what their immigration status is,
17:01
SPEAKER_01: but that's the kind of thing that you do if you are here without legal
17:05
SPEAKER_01: authorization to work.
17:07
And Miller wanted to surge enforcement activity into the bluest
17:12
cities and create
17:13
SPEAKER_01: confrontations,
17:15
SPEAKER_01: which is how we ended up with protests in Los Angeles,
17:18
SPEAKER_01: Marines,
17:18
SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
17:19
SPEAKER_01: While all that was playing out,
17:22
SPEAKER_01: Brooke Rollins,
17:23
SPEAKER_01: the agriculture secretary,
17:25
seems to have talked to Trump and said to him that Trump's
17:29
supporters in the
17:31
SPEAKER_01: agribusiness community were very concerned about these workplace raids.
17:35
SPEAKER_01: And that it was going to lead to increased grocery costs,
17:39
not just because he would be mechanically removing a certain
17:42
number of illegal
17:43
SPEAKER_01: workers from,
17:44
SPEAKER_01: you know,
17:45
SPEAKER_01: picking crops and working in slaughterhouses,
17:47
SPEAKER_01: etc.
17:48
SPEAKER_01: But because essentially because Miller's plan was working.
17:51
That like there is a deterrent effect to those kind of work job
17:54
site enforcement actions.
17:56
And it's going to make it hard for for farm workers to do their
18:00
businesses.
18:01
Trump posted on Truth Social that he's talked to our great
18:05
hotel owners and farmers
18:08
SPEAKER_01: and has seen that,
18:09
SPEAKER_01: you know,
18:09
we need to be focusing on deporting criminals rather than on
18:12
hardworking people.
18:16
I was heartened by that in a way because I think it's like a
18:19
move toward a more
18:20
SPEAKER_01: sensible immigration policy.
18:23
But it also it didn't feel to me like a like a political win
18:27
for Democrats in the
18:28
SPEAKER_01: way that like a bill failing in the Senate would be.
18:31
SPEAKER_01: This was just like Trump portraying himself as like.
18:36
SPEAKER_01: you know, like masterful and sensible.
18:38
That like first he came in and he was like pedal to the floor,
18:42
immigration enforcement.
18:43
SPEAKER_01: But then he like heard that things were going too far in certain areas.
18:47
So he's reeling it back and we're going to just redouble our
18:49
efforts on criminals.
18:51
SPEAKER_01: And that to me is like,
18:53
SPEAKER_01: the political sweet spot for Trump, right?
18:55
He's like two steps forward,
18:56
one step back,
18:57
completely controlling the narrative.
18:59
SPEAKER_01: He's reassuring stakeholders who are inclined to judge him favorably,
19:06
SPEAKER_01: like guys who own agribusiness companies,
19:08
SPEAKER_01: that like,
19:09
SPEAKER_01: I've got your back.
19:11
Democrats are just completely on the sidelines because it's
19:14
fully executive discretion.
19:16
SPEAKER_01: But also,
19:16
SPEAKER_01: like,
19:17
SPEAKER_01: we're just stuck in I feel like since 2016,
19:21
SPEAKER_01: we've been stuck in an immigration dynamic where,
19:24
SPEAKER_01: you know,
19:27
SPEAKER_01: Democrats went,
19:28
SPEAKER_01: I think,
19:28
SPEAKER_01: like a little too far out on the ledge with their politics,
19:33
but fundamentally are correct that like large scale deportation
19:38
is a bad idea that
19:40
SPEAKER_01: will like make native born Americans worse off.
19:43
SPEAKER_01: But the public has gotten so wound up in these asylum questions,
19:50
SPEAKER_01: sanctuary cities,
19:51
SPEAKER_01: criminals,
19:51
SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
19:52
SPEAKER_01: that like people just get away with this double thing.
19:55
And so you see all these polls now that are like people prefer
20:00
Republicans and immigration.
20:01
SPEAKER_01: People want mass deportation.
20:03
And then you ask all these specifics and they're like actually
20:06
much more aligned
20:07
SPEAKER_01: with Democrats about X,
20:08
SPEAKER_01: Y and Z.
20:09
But they align with Trump because they believe that Trump is
20:13
going to carry out
20:15
SPEAKER_01: some kind of.
20:16
SPEAKER_01: I don't know what, like moderate, sane implementation of this.
20:20
Then I read today in The Post reports that like Stephen Miller
20:25
had like re gotten
20:26
SPEAKER_01: the upper hand in this argument.
20:28
SPEAKER_01: And now there's like a new new guidance that's like,
20:32
SPEAKER_01: yes,
20:32
SPEAKER_01: we are going to do job site enforcement,
20:34
SPEAKER_01: but like we don't know what's actually going to happen.
20:37
SPEAKER_01: But here's the one we're like, I. I do just I I think I want Trump.
20:47
to kick down doors at meatpacking plants and vegetable farms
20:54
and other things and like deport
20:58
illegal immigrants who are working in these critical sectors
21:05
and have the economic harm come.
21:09
SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't favor that.
21:11
SPEAKER_01: I feel bad saying this,
21:12
but it's like I think we need to see the harms of this policy
21:18
manifest because it's
21:20
not like the more restrained policy Trump is articulating is
21:25
like really all that
21:27
SPEAKER_01: So restrained, ultimately, and like to win the argument on immigration.
21:33
SPEAKER_01: I mean, because when Bush was president, it was the other way.
21:36
SPEAKER_01: It was like lots of Republicans were like, we got to do mass deportation.
21:40
SPEAKER_01: But Bush was like, like, I don't really want to do that.
21:42
SPEAKER_01: Like, that would be bad for the economy.
21:44
SPEAKER_01: And I hoped we could get a deal done.
21:46
SPEAKER_01: But now it's like,
21:47
SPEAKER_01: unless we touch the stove,
21:49
I don't know how we're ever going to get out of this like Biden
21:52
era immigration
21:53
SPEAKER_01: politics,
21:54
SPEAKER_01: which which wasn't working.
21:58
If there was a way to force Trump to have the courage of
22:04
Stephen Miller's convictions.
22:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: And to make Stephen Miller have the courage of his own convictions.
22:10
SPEAKER_00: I think I would agree, you know, like.
22:12
I mean,
22:13
obviously,
22:14
to some extent,
22:14
it's like Trump doesn't care what I fucking think.
22:17
Also,
22:18
just for my own moral vanity,
22:20
I hate Trump's deportation policy,
22:23
and it makes me livid.
22:25
And I think that the reaction to it is the reaction you get to
22:29
just generalized
22:30
SPEAKER_00: tyranny because it's highly oppressive.
22:32
SPEAKER_00: It's cruel.
22:34
SPEAKER_00: But to the point about we need...
22:37
SPEAKER_00: The people who think they want this to understand that it's actually bad,
22:41
SPEAKER_00: it needs to happen to some extent.
22:43
SPEAKER_00: The problem,
22:44
the reason I think that you aren't going to get your way on
22:48
that or it's not going
22:49
SPEAKER_00: to play out the way you might imagine it would is that...
22:55
They're not going to go into Iowa meat packing plants and
22:59
they're not going to go
23:00
into various industries in Texas and do to the people who work
23:08
there what they're
23:09
SPEAKER_00: doing to garment workers in L.A.
23:11
SPEAKER_00: or Home Depot day laborers or farmers in California.
23:17
SPEAKER_00: Like the the the text of Trump's second walk back was like,
23:21
SPEAKER_00: we're just going to double down on going into blue cities because,
23:26
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:26
SPEAKER_00: great replacement nonsense.
23:28
SPEAKER_00: These like they use to do fraud votes.
23:31
And so what what what stove touching ends up looking like is
23:36
mass action in the
23:37
SPEAKER_00: streets of Los Angeles,
23:39
SPEAKER_00: Chicago.
23:40
SPEAKER_00: Philadelphia, wherever else, right?
23:43
And I'm not super opposed to that because I don't think that
23:48
this has worked out
23:49
SPEAKER_00: super well for Trump.
23:51
SPEAKER_00: And I don't think,
23:51
SPEAKER_00: like,
23:52
SPEAKER_00: I think that the,
23:54
SPEAKER_00: you know,
23:54
SPEAKER_00: the masked agents using Gestapo tactics and,
23:58
SPEAKER_00: like...
23:59
SPEAKER_00: You know,
24:00
SPEAKER_00: detaining pregnant Mexican women and blah,
24:02
SPEAKER_00: blah,
24:02
SPEAKER_00: blah is is not good politics on its own.
24:07
But it's not the touching of the hot stove that's going to make
24:10
MAGA crack up.
24:11
And this is the this is the part of the of the Trump two step
24:15
that I like.
24:17
I can't say like Democrats have failed to because I don't have
24:19
like a solid answer.
24:21
SPEAKER_00: But what he's doing is he's reflecting the fact that.
24:25
SPEAKER_00: That he's overcommitted to keep this weird coalition together, right?
24:30
And so he says mass deportation and like Stephen Miller runs
24:34
the show because
24:35
SPEAKER_00: there's this big nativist slash racist element in his coalition.
24:40
SPEAKER_00: But it's also unworkable for the people in industry who also support him.
24:45
SPEAKER_00: And so he says, we're going to do one.
24:48
SPEAKER_00: No, we're going to do the other.
24:49
SPEAKER_00: No, we're going to do one.
24:49
SPEAKER_00: No, we're going to do the other.
24:50
SPEAKER_00: Like he's straddling this unstraddleable divide.
24:54
And the way he does it is he creates a big problem by going
24:58
with Miller for a week.
24:59
SPEAKER_00: And then he says, ah, I'm solving the problem that I created.
25:04
SPEAKER_00: shower me with praise for solving the problem.
25:06
And because it's not clear in people's minds that this is
25:10
what's happening,
25:11
he does get some credit for having like fixed something that
25:15
was broken because
25:15
SPEAKER_00: people lose sight of the fact that he broke it.
25:18
And like,
25:18
I wish there was an easy way for Democrats to force him pick
25:22
one or the other,
25:22
right?
25:22
Like here's a bill that says people who work for a living in
25:28
regulated industries
25:29
SPEAKER_00: get work visas,
25:30
SPEAKER_00: right?
25:33
SPEAKER_00: And here's the mass deportation bill that you say you want,
25:39
SPEAKER_00: but it has language that says this applies not just in blue cities,
25:43
SPEAKER_00: but in red cities and in red rural areas across the whole country.
25:47
SPEAKER_00: You have to pick one.
25:49
SPEAKER_00: But like obviously like they can say that.
25:53
SPEAKER_00: And he can say, no, fuck you, I'm gonna keep doing my two-step.
25:55
SPEAKER_00: And it leaves us kind of nowhere.
25:57
SPEAKER_00: And I wish I had,
25:58
SPEAKER_00: like,
25:59
SPEAKER_00: here's the cool,
26:01
SPEAKER_00: you know,
26:02
SPEAKER_00: rat fuckery or rhetorical trick that can,
26:07
SPEAKER_00: like,
26:07
SPEAKER_00: solidify the fraud at the heart of this for people on,
26:11
SPEAKER_00: you know,
26:12
SPEAKER_00: in the middle or who support him.
26:14
SPEAKER_00: I just don't have any ideas.
26:17
SPEAKER_01: Right, well, so, but I mean...
26:20
SPEAKER_01: Just in terms of like where the stove is.
26:22
SPEAKER_01: I mean,
26:22
SPEAKER_01: I do want to say right on May 29th,
26:25
SPEAKER_01: you know,
26:25
we got a press release from ICE saying that they had detained
26:30
over 100 people at a
26:33
SPEAKER_01: construction site in Tallahassee.
26:36
SPEAKER_01: In a joint operation.
26:38
And like part of how this was like massaged was like after they
26:41
as they raided this
26:44
SPEAKER_01: site,
26:45
they generated some arrests for resisting arrest and like one
26:51
for like assaulting a
26:52
SPEAKER_01: law enforcement officer.
26:53
And Florida is like passing new laws to like criminalize more
26:59
like anti ice kind of
27:01
SPEAKER_01: activity so that you can.
27:03
SPEAKER_01: Do a job site operation,
27:05
SPEAKER_01: but then after the job site operation is done,
27:08
SPEAKER_01: you can say you've arrested people for violent crimes.
27:10
SPEAKER_01: But still,
27:11
SPEAKER_01: like what they what they were doing there,
27:13
SPEAKER_01: May 29th,
27:14
SPEAKER_01: not that long ago,
27:15
is trying to get unauthorized workers out of the construction
27:19
industry in northern
27:20
SPEAKER_01: Florida.
27:22
SPEAKER_01: June 11th, we had a major raid at a meatpacking plant in Omaha.
27:27
SPEAKER_01: Right.
27:28
SPEAKER_01: So,
27:28
SPEAKER_01: you know,
27:29
there is a version of Trumpism in which they are doing job site
27:34
raids in red
27:35
SPEAKER_01: states.
27:36
SPEAKER_01: Now,
27:36
SPEAKER_01: I agree with you that,
27:37
SPEAKER_01: like,
27:37
SPEAKER_01: the true sweet spot for Trump may be like do job site raids,
27:42
SPEAKER_01: but only do it in Los Angeles and Chicago,
27:45
SPEAKER_01: which is a tougher needle to thread.
27:48
SPEAKER_01: It's just it's.
27:50
But this is like one reason why I'm not I don't love the idea
27:58
of trying to sort of like.
28:00
SPEAKER_01: Fight ice in the streets around this kind of stuff, because.
28:07
SPEAKER_01: I think that it's the kind of thing where like.
28:11
SPEAKER_01: On its face,
28:13
SPEAKER_01: what has always made amnesty politics challenging,
28:16
SPEAKER_01: I think,
28:18
is that you sound like an asshole taking the position like
28:24
you're going to miss
28:26
SPEAKER_01: these low wage farm and hotel workers when they're gone kind of thing.
28:31
I think,
28:31
you know,
28:32
for like classic like left populist reasons,
28:35
like the politics of the
28:37
You know,
28:37
these elites and these employers,
28:40
they're like addicted to their cheap labor.
28:42
And like,
28:42
we're going to get that out and it's going to raise wages for
28:44
everyone.
28:45
SPEAKER_01: I feel like the politics of that sort of posturing like are fine.
28:48
SPEAKER_01: The problem is like actually,
28:50
SPEAKER_01: actually,
28:51
when the guys picking crops have all been deported and like now
28:55
the time comes to
28:56
offer white working class Trump voters in eastern Ohio the
29:00
opportunity to move to
29:01
SPEAKER_01: the Central Valley of California and go pick lettuce.
29:04
SPEAKER_01: Like nobody wants to do that.
29:06
SPEAKER_01: Right.
29:06
SPEAKER_01: Like, like the reality is bad.
29:10
SPEAKER_01: And I get that the reality is bad.
29:12
SPEAKER_01: And like,
29:12
I think that the political establishment in California gets
29:16
that the reality of
29:17
SPEAKER_01: that is bad.
29:17
SPEAKER_01: Has maybe over learned it.
29:20
SPEAKER_00: You don't see how the, how the, how the, how the gears click into place.
29:24
What happens is you deport the lettuce pickers from California
29:27
and then all the,
29:29
um,
29:30
SPEAKER_00: all the people who need to meet the Medicaid work requirements.
29:33
SPEAKER_00: So it's not sure.
29:34
SPEAKER_01: Right, right, right.
29:35
SPEAKER_00: They have to pick lettuce in order to keep their health care.
29:38
SPEAKER_00: And now the whole system makes perfect sense.
29:40
SPEAKER_01: No, but I mean, but like, I think that's correct.
29:43
And like I but like this is the story that like in some ways
29:46
needs to be told,
29:47
right?
29:48
SPEAKER_01: Like the state with the highest share of people on Medicaid,
29:51
SPEAKER_01: I believe,
29:52
SPEAKER_01: is either West Virginia or Kentucky.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: Right.
29:54
SPEAKER_01: And so it's like,
29:56
do Shelley Moore Capito's constituents like want to go pick
29:59
tomatoes in Florida?
30:01
Like those jobs,
30:02
frankly,
30:03
are available now and will only be more available.
30:06
SPEAKER_01: And the rest of us are all going to pay more for tomatoes.
30:08
SPEAKER_01: And like, I think it stinks.
30:10
But I just like again,
30:11
I can't I can't like mind control Trump around this one way or
30:16
the other.
30:17
SPEAKER_01: But I just I sort of think.
30:20
SPEAKER_01: I feel that the only way out at this point,
30:24
given that the pro-immigration wing of the Republican Party has
30:28
completely
30:29
SPEAKER_01: collapsed,
30:30
SPEAKER_01: and given the geography of the Senate,
30:32
SPEAKER_01: the filibuster rules,
30:33
SPEAKER_01: a million other things,
30:35
SPEAKER_01: to get to the point,
30:35
SPEAKER_01: there's a bill,
30:37
SPEAKER_01: like a Farm Worker Fairness Act or something,
30:39
SPEAKER_01: that's a targeted legalization program for agricultural workers.
30:44
SPEAKER_01: It's a good law.
30:45
SPEAKER_01: It's a good bill.
30:46
SPEAKER_01: But it doesn't have unanimous Democratic support.
30:50
Due to a mix of like moderate trepidation and progressive sort
30:54
of like principled
30:56
SPEAKER_01: desire to increase labor costs.
30:59
It has almost no Republican support at this point because the
31:03
Central Valley House
31:03
SPEAKER_01: Republicans lost their election bids in recent years,
31:08
SPEAKER_01: most of them at least.
31:09
SPEAKER_01: And it's like.
31:11
I just I feel my pessimistic read is that like the only way out
31:16
on this immigration
31:16
SPEAKER_01: stuff is is to go through the pain of mass deportation,
31:21
SPEAKER_01: not like literally deporting everybody,
31:25
because the pain comes like well before you've deported 11
31:29
million people.
31:31
SPEAKER_01: And you saw that from Trump.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: Right.
31:32
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he started flinching on this at like, frankly, trivial level.
31:38
SPEAKER_01: numbers of enforcement actions relative to the scale of the issue,
31:43
because like we have a full employment economy because Trump
31:46
through tariffs is
31:47
SPEAKER_01: like already raising cost pressures on so many spheres.
31:50
SPEAKER_01: And just like nobody wants the price of groceries to go up.
31:53
There's all these clips of Trump all throughout the campaign
31:56
being like price of groceries.
31:59
SPEAKER_01: It would be better if that was lower rather than higher.
32:01
SPEAKER_01: And just like really mechanically,
32:03
this is an immigration policy that is going to make housing
32:06
more expensive and is
32:07
SPEAKER_01: going to make food more expensive.
32:09
SPEAKER_01: And like,
32:09
I would love to just persuade people of that with my tweets and
32:12
my columns and my
32:14
SPEAKER_01: glorious podcast here.
32:15
SPEAKER_01: But I don't think they're going to believe it until they see it.
32:19
SPEAKER_00: Groceries, that old fashioned word.
32:22
SPEAKER_00: Can you?
32:23
SPEAKER_01: I almost invented the word groceries.
32:25
SPEAKER_00: The.
32:28
Look,
32:28
like Stephen Miller claims to have a goal of 3,000 deportations
32:33
a day.
32:34
SPEAKER_00: And I think that if they were to get anywhere in the ballpark of that,
32:39
life would start to feel like mass deportation already
32:41
succeeded because a lot of
32:42
people who feel comfortable going to job sites now thinking
32:46
that they won't be
32:48
snatched up will start looking for other kinds of work where
32:52
they're less likely to
32:53
SPEAKER_00: be caught in a dragnet.
32:54
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
32:56
SPEAKER_00: But maybe there's like a maybe there's actually like a synthesis here.
32:59
SPEAKER_00: Right.
32:59
Because like,
33:00
as you say,
33:01
it would be really great to kill the reconciliation bill.
33:04
SPEAKER_00: There is no bill to kill in in the in the mass deportation fight,
33:09
except insofar as like the reconciliation bill is also kind of
33:12
like fund the mass
33:13
SPEAKER_00: deportation.
33:14
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
33:15
SPEAKER_00: But,
33:16
SPEAKER_00: like,
33:16
we're seeing they're doing a bunch of stuff on immigration now
33:19
without new
33:20
SPEAKER_00: legislation.
33:22
SPEAKER_00: So insofar as that's going to be directed at L.A.
33:24
SPEAKER_00: and Chicago,
33:24
SPEAKER_00: the only way to resist it is kind of in the streets,
33:27
SPEAKER_00: which comes with some risks and some rewards.
33:30
SPEAKER_00: But if you confuse those two things,
33:32
SPEAKER_00: right,
33:35
SPEAKER_00: you know,
33:37
SPEAKER_00: create cross pressure on people like Shelley Moore Capito through,
33:43
SPEAKER_00: like,
33:43
SPEAKER_00: creative –
33:46
SPEAKER_00: like,
33:46
SPEAKER_00: conflict courting,
33:48
SPEAKER_00: courting of conflict,
33:49
SPEAKER_00: then maybe you could,
33:50
SPEAKER_00: like,
33:50
SPEAKER_00: both get people talking about it more so that,
33:54
SPEAKER_00: you know,
33:54
it's harder for Republicans to hide from the bill that they're
33:59
moving towards
33:59
SPEAKER_00: passing.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: And also, like...
34:02
Beat Trump on the reconciliation bill,
34:04
beat Stephen Miller on mass deportations.
34:07
SPEAKER_00: But maybe we should like we should like work this out,
34:11
SPEAKER_00: workshop it together on the on the other side of the paywall.
34:14
SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
34:15
SPEAKER_01: Yes, let's do it.
34:16
SPEAKER_01: That's OK.
34:18
SPEAKER_01: It's actually our ideas on the other side of the paywall are amazing,
34:21
SPEAKER_01: really well worked out and will save everything.
34:25
But we are going to charge Chuck Schumer five dollars a month
34:28
so that he can find
34:29
SPEAKER_01: out how to make everything,
34:30
SPEAKER_01: how to fix everything.
34:32
SPEAKER_00: You hear that Chuck?
34:32
SPEAKER_00: Go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.