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Eco Data, Black Friday, Venture Capital · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you.
0:05
Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day
0:07
Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
0:10
Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
0:12
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple
0:15
Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
0:17
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Today we got a slew of
0:20
Speaker 1: better than expected economic data out of the United States,
0:22
Speaker 1: including demand for US business equipment unexpectedly increasing in October
0:28
Speaker 1: by the most since the start of the year. So
0:30
Speaker 1: is it the time pop the champagne? Get ready for
0:33
Speaker 1: a tick up across the board next year? At Dan
0:36
Speaker 1: North joining US now chief economist at North America at
0:38
Speaker 1: youler her mays, Dan, can you give us a sense
0:41
Speaker 1: first of all on how positive today's economic data was? Well?
0:46
Speaker 1: I think, first of all, good morning and happy almost
0:49
Speaker 1: Turkey day to you. Um. Looking at the month to
0:53
Speaker 1: month data on a number of things this morning, I
0:55
Speaker 1: mean you sighted durable goods, Yeah, it's up for the month,
0:59
Speaker 1: but I tended to take a longer term view, and
1:02
Speaker 1: if you look at core orders were still negative. Year
1:05
Speaker 1: over year negative point eight A year ago that was
1:08
Speaker 1: four point one percent, So the downtrend there. And if
1:11
Speaker 1: you look at shipments UM, which go into g d P,
1:14
Speaker 1: you know it's point four percent year over year, so
1:17
Speaker 1: that bodes well poorly for fourth quarter g d P.
1:21
Speaker 1: And you know a year ago was four point seven
1:24
Speaker 1: percent UM. And you saw a few other things this
1:27
Speaker 1: morning that looked kind of positive on the surface, but
1:31
Speaker 1: the biggest one to me is the indicator of the consumer.
1:34
Speaker 1: You know, the consumer has been sort of holding up
1:37
Speaker 1: the economy at least that's the narrative. Well this morning
1:40
Speaker 1: you see, uh, for the most recent data in October,
1:45
Speaker 1: real consumption was only up point one percent to two
1:49
Speaker 1: point three percent the last month of the year over
1:52
Speaker 1: year last month that was two point six percent, was
1:54
Speaker 1: three point two percent last year UM, and real income
1:59
Speaker 1: was down point three So I think that's the most
2:02
Speaker 1: important data of the morning, And certainly if you look
2:05
Speaker 1: at a longer term trend, to me, it's it's distinctly negative.
2:10
Speaker 1: So Dan focusing on the consumer again. The consumers you
2:14
Speaker 1: mentioned has been kind of the bulwark of this economy
2:18
Speaker 1: over the last several quarters. Are you concerned that the
2:21
Speaker 1: consumer may not be able to do its part again
2:25
Speaker 1: for the economy. I really am. And and here's again
2:28
Speaker 1: as a perfect example, real uh disposable personal income down
2:33
Speaker 1: this month. What I see is, let's holiday sales are
2:37
Speaker 1: coming up, right. I mean, in a few days we're
2:39
Speaker 1: going to get the anecdote reports of how good holiday
2:42
Speaker 1: sales are. And I think they're probably going to be
2:44
Speaker 1: pretty good. You know, By the way, I love this
2:46
Speaker 1: sort of cynical resignation that everyone who I've spoken to
2:50
Speaker 1: this morning has about Black Friday. Way to go with
2:53
Speaker 1: the spirit, carry on. You're like, yeah, they're I said,
2:58
Speaker 1: they're going to be pretty good. Do we think we've
3:00
Speaker 1: got the exuberance of consumer confidence of the stock markets high? So,
3:06
Speaker 1: you know, over the past few years it's something like
3:09
Speaker 1: four percent holiday sales growth overall, more so on black variety,
3:14
Speaker 1: of course. But let's say, you know, the consumer spends
3:17
Speaker 1: as much as usual for holiday sales, maybe more because
3:21
Speaker 1: of the exuberance. I think that sets us up for
3:24
Speaker 1: a little bit of a fall in the first quarter,
3:26
Speaker 1: especially since income is trending down, and that's what really
3:30
Speaker 1: gives us a concern about a future slowdown. We think
3:34
Speaker 1: growth in the first quarter could be flat even Dan,
3:37
Speaker 1: you think there could be a US recession in or
3:40
Speaker 1: maybe we think there's definitely going to be a sharp slowdown.
3:46
Speaker 1: We're looking at something like one point six percent GDP
3:49
Speaker 1: for all of you know this past year is two
3:53
Speaker 1: point so for sure a significant slowdown, and if this
3:58
Speaker 1: trade war picks up, you know, that could really knock
4:02
Speaker 1: half or one percentage point off a GDP, And in
4:05
Speaker 1: our world, that's a lot, Dan, sound go ahead. I
4:11
Speaker 1: was just gonna say, we still do think that there's
4:13
Speaker 1: a possibility of recession, but certainly a slow down, no
4:18
Speaker 1: question about that. Dan. I'm trying to square what you're
4:21
Speaker 1: saying with the consensus right now among at least Wall
4:23
Speaker 1: Street analysts which believe that who believe that the US
4:27
Speaker 1: equity market is going to do very well, particularly in
4:30
Speaker 1: the first quarter or first half of the year, with
4:32
Speaker 1: some accelerating growth. Why are they getting it so wrong?
4:36
Speaker 1: I wouldn't start they're getting it wrong about the stock market.
4:39
Speaker 1: Number one. Two things, you know, we are really involved
4:43
Speaker 1: in trade credit and we have to have a more
4:46
Speaker 1: realistic approach to what's actually happening to business on the
4:50
Speaker 1: front lines, and we're seeing an absolutely distinct deterioration there.
4:55
Speaker 1: But the important point is um, the stock market isn't
5:00
Speaker 1: necessarily connected to the economy a lot of the time.
5:04
Speaker 1: For instance, if you go back and look at the
5:07
Speaker 1: past ten recessions, the stock market only gave you some
5:11
Speaker 1: kind of warning three times, So it's not at all
5:15
Speaker 1: uncommon for them to disconnect. So I can't argue with
5:18
Speaker 1: the banks and brokerages who want to sell investments who
5:22
Speaker 1: were saying, yes, stock Mark is going to be great. Well,
5:24
Speaker 1: it could well be, you know, with low interest rates,
5:27
Speaker 1: but it's not a connection to the economy necessarily. Dan North,
5:31
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us, Dan Northeast, chief economist
5:34
Speaker 1: for North America. For Euler Ermez joining us on the
5:37
Speaker 1: phone from charm City, Baltimore, Maryland. Appreciate his comments. Time
5:55
Speaker 1: to check in with Bloomberg Opinion. We're joined by opinion
5:58
Speaker 1: calumnists retail columnists. Our house actually covers all things retail
6:02
Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Opinion. She joins us from the Washington d
6:04
Speaker 1: C Bureau. Sarah, thanks so much for joining us. Black
6:07
Speaker 1: Friday coming up, Cyber Monday coming up. What is the
6:11
Speaker 1: expectation for holiday sales this year? Yeah? So I think
6:15
Speaker 1: the expectations are largely upbeat for the season. Overall holiday
6:20
Speaker 1: sales are expected to be up about four percent, and
6:22
Speaker 1: that's because consumers are feeling pretty good. And you know,
6:25
Speaker 1: we saw quite a mixed bag of retail earnings results
6:28
Speaker 1: in the last couple of weeks, with some strong performers
6:31
Speaker 1: and some weak performers. But I think that just suggests that, uh,
6:34
Speaker 1: for for the ones that are executing well and do
6:36
Speaker 1: have a good strategy, there are plenty of dollars out
6:39
Speaker 1: there to to win and be fought for this season. Sarah,
6:41
Speaker 1: let's talk about Black Friday. This is the cliche of
6:45
Speaker 1: people lining up at three am to bust through the
6:48
Speaker 1: doors and these manufactured televised events, And I'm wondering, is
6:52
Speaker 1: that the reality anymore? Or is the vast amount of
6:55
Speaker 1: Black Friday shopping online? So it's definitely not the reality
6:59
Speaker 1: anymore more, folks are this isn't increasingly digital holiday. There
7:03
Speaker 1: will be seven point five billion dollars spent online alone
7:07
Speaker 1: on holiday and quotes, we're gonna just put that in
7:09
Speaker 1: quotes but carry out. Yes, but we so certainly Black
7:14
Speaker 1: Friday is becoming more and more of a digital occasion. However,
7:18
Speaker 1: stores still really matter a lot, and there will be
7:21
Speaker 1: big crowds in the stores. Uh, both Thanksgiving evening when
7:24
Speaker 1: a lot of the retailers kick off their big deals events,
7:27
Speaker 1: and and all throughout the weekend. Um. You know, for
7:30
Speaker 1: the holiday season, overall, only about of shopping will happen online. Uh.
7:34
Speaker 1: The vast majority of it will still happen in stores. Sir,
7:37
Speaker 1: What are gen Z folks? How are they shopping? I
7:41
Speaker 1: know they do a lot of e commerce, but did
7:42
Speaker 1: they what is their store bricks and mortar experience? Are
7:46
Speaker 1: actually even going to the malls? So interestingly they are,
7:50
Speaker 1: in fact, they shop a lot more like us, older
7:52
Speaker 1: than you might imagine. Um. So for purchases like food
7:56
Speaker 1: and beverage, they're still doing, you know, something like ninety
7:59
Speaker 1: one to their shopping in stores for items like apparel,
8:02
Speaker 1: seventy percent of their shopping in stores, and they actually
8:06
Speaker 1: say in surveys they liked the experience of being in
8:09
Speaker 1: a store. When we talk about this weekend specifically, uh,
8:12
Speaker 1: Deloyte did some survey work around this and asked, folks,
8:15
Speaker 1: will you be out shopping with family and friends? Gen
8:18
Speaker 1: Z was most likely to respond amongst people who were
8:21
Speaker 1: going to go to stores this weekend. Gen Z was
8:23
Speaker 1: most likely to respond that they were doing it in
8:24
Speaker 1: a social way, that they were doing it with family
8:26
Speaker 1: and friends. And I think if you've never been out
8:29
Speaker 1: on Black Friday before, I've been doing this for seven
8:32
Speaker 1: years now as in my capacity as a reporter UM,
8:34
Speaker 1: and this is consistent with what you see is that
8:37
Speaker 1: there aren't a lot of people out in the stores
8:39
Speaker 1: this weekend who are just trying to check off their
8:41
Speaker 1: gift list and you know, being very task oriented and
8:44
Speaker 1: errand oriented. This is a social event. This is something
8:47
Speaker 1: that people like to do with their family and friends.
8:48
Speaker 1: Are sort of a sport or ritual. I'm wondering about
8:51
Speaker 1: this data that we got out today. UM. Retailers were choice.
8:55
Speaker 1: This is on the Bloomberg terminal. There's never been a
8:57
Speaker 1: better time to buy heading into a Black Friday, and
9:00
Speaker 1: this was a look at buying conditions in the US
9:03
Speaker 1: advancing to the highest ever levels. Does that foretell something
9:08
Speaker 1: in your mind? And and sort of where they may
9:11
Speaker 1: be shopping too, you know, I think that in terms
9:15
Speaker 1: of where they're going to be shopping this year, I
9:16
Speaker 1: think the winners are going to be the retailers that
9:19
Speaker 1: have done the best job of kind of integrating their
9:22
Speaker 1: online and in store experiences. I think Walmart, Target in
9:25
Speaker 1: Best Buy are clear examples of that, where it's easy
9:28
Speaker 1: to ping pong back and forth between their websites and
9:31
Speaker 1: between their stores to place an order online and pick
9:33
Speaker 1: it up in the store, or to browse in the
9:35
Speaker 1: store and go and buy online later. I think those
9:38
Speaker 1: kinds of factors are what's going to be shaping people's
9:40
Speaker 1: purchasing decisions most and of course where the discounts are.
9:43
Speaker 1: There's no doubt that this is a very deals oriented weekend, UH,
9:47
Speaker 1: and that that is shaping a lot of the decision
9:49
Speaker 1: making about where dollars gets spend. Sir, with all the
9:52
Speaker 1: changes in consumer spending, e commerce and so on, just
9:54
Speaker 1: give us a sense of how important still is this
9:57
Speaker 1: how they shopping period for retailers, the all shopping period
10:00
Speaker 1: is critically important. UM. It's more important for some retailers
10:04
Speaker 1: than others. So toy stores, jewelry stores, for example, h
10:07
Speaker 1: they do draw a more disproportionate share of their sales
10:11
Speaker 1: during the holiday season than say a bookstore. UM. So
10:15
Speaker 1: it varies by retailer, but this is a really important
10:18
Speaker 1: time of year, not only for the actual dollars that
10:20
Speaker 1: are pulled in, but just because it's a chance to
10:22
Speaker 1: make an impression with a consumer that you know, in
10:25
Speaker 1: the case of an apparel store, you might only see
10:27
Speaker 1: two or three times a year, right, And so if
10:29
Speaker 1: you're not showing them when they come into your store
10:32
Speaker 1: or pull up your website that you have good merchandise,
10:35
Speaker 1: that you have good pricing, that you're sort of aspirational
10:37
Speaker 1: and inspirational, that kind of sets a tone that will
10:40
Speaker 1: stick with that consumer for the rest of the year.
10:42
Speaker 1: So it's a very important, uh, several weeks for the
10:46
Speaker 1: retail industry. Sarah how Zac, thank you so much for
10:49
Speaker 1: being with Sarah. How's that covers all things retail for
10:52
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion Up, Well, it is the day before Thanksgiving.
11:12
Speaker 1: People are gearing up for family and friends and food
11:15
Speaker 1: and also for a lot of us shopping on maybe
11:18
Speaker 1: even tomorrow evening heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
11:22
Speaker 1: To get a preview, we welcome Mark Hamrick, senior economic
11:25
Speaker 1: analyst at bank rate dot Com, joining us on the
11:27
Speaker 1: phone from Washington, d C. Mark, Thanks so much for
11:28
Speaker 1: joining us. I love to get your thoughts on how
11:31
Speaker 1: you think this holiday shopping, Stevens is going to kick
11:34
Speaker 1: off on it's called Friday. Sure, good to be with you,
11:38
Speaker 1: Paul and Lisa. Well, I'm sure it'll start off with
11:41
Speaker 1: a bang. Obviously, through this shopping period, which truly begins
11:46
Speaker 1: before November one, Americans indicated they would start their holiday
11:51
Speaker 1: shopping in that time. Hold on a second, when is
11:54
Speaker 1: it just shopping? I mean, if you're starting before November one,
11:57
Speaker 1: can we just call it shopping or is it this
12:00
Speaker 1: typically for the holidays? So I think it's an intention
12:02
Speaker 1: to buy holiday gifts. And I think from a consumer
12:04
Speaker 1: standpoint that's quite wise because we know that this industry
12:08
Speaker 1: is promotional almost all the time anymore because it's so competitive.
12:12
Speaker 1: And from a bank RT perspective, I also like the
12:14
Speaker 1: idea of not sort of taking the hit to the
12:17
Speaker 1: either the bank account or the credit cards, um, you know,
12:21
Speaker 1: uh late in the year, if if you have the
12:23
Speaker 1: ability to spread out those purchases. So to ask your
12:26
Speaker 1: question from a bank reat data perspective, we did ask Americans,
12:29
Speaker 1: by the way, and just published this survey this week
12:33
Speaker 1: whether they intend to spend more or less or about
12:35
Speaker 1: the same, and of Americans said they intend to spend
12:38
Speaker 1: about the same as last year, only said they'd spend more,
12:43
Speaker 1: said they'd spend less. We know the Yeah, So how
12:46
Speaker 1: does this cohere with the idea that this is the
12:48
Speaker 1: best time ever for consumers and that they're more confident
12:50
Speaker 1: than ever heading into Black Friday? Um, I, you know,
12:55
Speaker 1: I guess the question best time for consumers? I I'd
12:58
Speaker 1: want to play that out a little bit and and
13:00
Speaker 1: have an idea about how that works exactly. But there's
13:04
Speaker 1: plenty of competition out there, and between online and brick
13:08
Speaker 1: and mortar, you certainly can uh pick and choose, and
13:12
Speaker 1: particularly in the apparel world, where it feels like that
13:15
Speaker 1: is sort of yesterday's news in the sense of things
13:18
Speaker 1: to have. So um, you know, I think also consumers
13:22
Speaker 1: are always consuming, right, and so the question is, you know,
13:24
Speaker 1: I think for a lot of people who are you
13:26
Speaker 1: might call them well qualified consumers, what do they need?
13:30
Speaker 1: And for many the answer is not much? And I
13:32
Speaker 1: think that's one of the reasons why purchase of experiences
13:35
Speaker 1: has become more of a thing, because you can always
13:37
Speaker 1: have more experiences, but we don't necessarily need another sweater.
13:41
Speaker 1: So Mark, give us a sense of from your survey work.
13:44
Speaker 1: Are people gonna spend money they have. Are they going
13:46
Speaker 1: to rack up some debt here going into the holiday season. Yeah,
13:49
Speaker 1: And of course that's one of our key concerns, right,
13:52
Speaker 1: and I think it should be our concern as a
13:54
Speaker 1: society or as a nation as well. And so I
13:57
Speaker 1: suppose the good news here is that a slight majority
14:01
Speaker 1: fifty said that they're going to spend money that they
14:04
Speaker 1: already have. And then of those who gave us an answer,
14:09
Speaker 1: in other words, if they had an idea about where
14:11
Speaker 1: they would use their financial resources, said they'd use some
14:16
Speaker 1: combination of credit. In that mix, only about six indicated
14:21
Speaker 1: that they would use either most or all with credits
14:25
Speaker 1: only six percent, or go leaning heavily on the plastic
14:28
Speaker 1: you know, which raises a question in my mind. We've
14:30
Speaker 1: heard about the strength of the consumer powering the economic
14:33
Speaker 1: recovery in the United States over the past five ten years.
14:37
Speaker 1: I'm trying to understand how much this has been done
14:40
Speaker 1: on credit and how much further it has to go,
14:44
Speaker 1: given the fact that rates are still low, but that
14:46
Speaker 1: we are starting to see delinquencies chack up a bit,
14:49
Speaker 1: at least in credit cards and auto loans. Well, rates
14:52
Speaker 1: are low from a credit card perspective, right. Uh. You know,
14:55
Speaker 1: we survey this all the time, and the average rate
14:57
Speaker 1: for consumer credit card is cent. Of course, you don't
15:00
Speaker 1: need to take that eighteen percent hit if you're paying
15:03
Speaker 1: the balance off within the month and then store cards
15:05
Speaker 1: are above twenty UM. So you know, I love the
15:08
Speaker 1: use of reward oriented credit cards personally, but I loathe
15:12
Speaker 1: the idea of allowing those balances to go beyond thirty days.
15:15
Speaker 1: But to your question, I think it has as far
15:17
Speaker 1: to go as the economic expansion has far to go,
15:20
Speaker 1: and as long as we can have actual gains and
15:23
Speaker 1: income or wages that is above the rate of inflation
15:26
Speaker 1: and so um. You know, I think that is sort
15:28
Speaker 1: of the conundrum to use an Allen Green Spanish word,
15:31
Speaker 1: uh that you know, while the FED is sort of
15:33
Speaker 1: fighting to get inflation up to its would be target, uh,
15:37
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of consumers are sort of saying, hey,
15:38
Speaker 1: wait a minute, what about education? What about healthcare? Those
15:41
Speaker 1: should matter more, shouldn't they because those have the outsize
15:44
Speaker 1: impacts on our on our finances, and they do matter
15:46
Speaker 1: a lot. Right, So what are we hearing and or
15:49
Speaker 1: what are you seeing out there as it relates to
15:51
Speaker 1: gen Z about how they're buying stuff out there. Are
15:55
Speaker 1: they still buying stuff? Are they just more into experiences? Yeah,
15:58
Speaker 1: this is a great question, and I'm glad you asked
16:01
Speaker 1: it because I think this may be one of the
16:04
Speaker 1: one of the things that is going to be most
16:07
Speaker 1: fascinating in the period to come. And So for those
16:10
Speaker 1: who aren't all into the cohort categories here, we're talking
16:14
Speaker 1: about those who are age eighteen to twenty two. And
16:17
Speaker 1: of course millennials are perhaps the most talked about UM
16:21
Speaker 1: and to some degree take the most heat in print,
16:24
Speaker 1: etcetera via views of the words latte and avocado toast,
16:30
Speaker 1: and I get a little tired of that. But but
16:32
Speaker 1: the real reality is that the gen Z folks are
16:35
Speaker 1: really looking to be shaking things up with respect to
16:38
Speaker 1: UH for example, looking to buy uh, you know, gently
16:42
Speaker 1: used clothing for example. And when we ask people who
16:46
Speaker 1: is focused on saving as a reason why they're not
16:49
Speaker 1: spending more gen Z again, those eighteen to twenty two
16:53
Speaker 1: popped up by far at the top of the list.
16:55
Speaker 1: That was so, you know, these are the people who
16:59
Speaker 1: truly have been digital only all their lives. Some of
17:02
Speaker 1: the millennials were a bit of a mix between analog
17:04
Speaker 1: and digital. And I think that there's a back uh
17:08
Speaker 1: lash to that, just the same as in some ways
17:10
Speaker 1: the rest of society is having a backlash attack. Um.
17:13
Speaker 1: You know, tech is has become the punching bag that
17:17
Speaker 1: the bankers were ten years ago. Uh and and so,
17:21
Speaker 1: and I think that there are some valid reasons for that, right,
17:25
Speaker 1: the fact that people can be bullied in that space,
17:27
Speaker 1: and they also want to have touch points. Sure, and
17:31
Speaker 1: there is now a shift towards some more social affairs
17:35
Speaker 1: in addition to a big tech. Mark Cameric, thank you
17:37
Speaker 1: so much for being with us. Mark Camerck is a
17:39
Speaker 1: senior economic analyst with Banquet dot Com, joining us from Washington,
17:44
Speaker 1: d C. The years of the unit corn of given
18:00
Speaker 1: way to a year of skepticism with some high profile
18:04
Speaker 1: misses when it comes to we Work and other darlings
18:07
Speaker 1: of the venture capital space. But this doesn't really paint
18:11
Speaker 1: the whole picture. Joining us now, Matt Miller, chief executive
18:13
Speaker 1: officer of and broker, joining us from San Francisco. Matt,
18:17
Speaker 1: you've been surveying the venture capital space, but not just
18:21
Speaker 1: the mega deals or the mega companies within the sector.
18:25
Speaker 1: Can you give us a sense of what you're looking at. Yeah, sure,
18:28
Speaker 1: thank you. We work with thousands of venture back companies.
18:32
Speaker 1: Our company build an online platform for insurance, and venture
18:36
Speaker 1: back companies are one of our main customer segments. So
18:39
Speaker 1: we get data from thousands of back companies, both small
18:42
Speaker 1: ones and large ones, and a few days ago we
18:44
Speaker 1: publish a report with our findings on all of the
18:47
Speaker 1: data from twenty nineteen that we see across the entire
18:49
Speaker 1: venture industry. So what are some of the key takeaways
18:53
Speaker 1: from your report, Because, again, as Lisa suggested, the VC community, uh,
18:57
Speaker 1: Silicon Valley broadly defined, has taken some lump here in
19:00
Speaker 1: the public market. Look, I mean, I think when you
19:03
Speaker 1: look at the numbers, there's a lot of talk about
19:05
Speaker 1: funding slowdown or were expecting one, but you don't really
19:08
Speaker 1: see it yet. I think what we see as funding
19:10
Speaker 1: activity is still quite strong, particularly in early in middle
19:14
Speaker 1: stage investments, and so I think that we also see
19:17
Speaker 1: companies that are still able actually to raise pretty sizeable
19:20
Speaker 1: amounts of money despite having relatively small or even being
19:24
Speaker 1: pre revenue. So I think from a deal activity standpoint,
19:27
Speaker 1: at least right now, you still see investors trying to
19:29
Speaker 1: lean in and get deals done. How about the actual companies,
19:32
Speaker 1: how are they doing. I think, you know, obviously it
19:36
Speaker 1: varies across the span. I mean, there are companies that
19:39
Speaker 1: are doing quite well, companies that are potentially slowing down
19:41
Speaker 1: and starting to hordcasts. I think one interesting tech trend
19:44
Speaker 1: we see when we look at the data is that
19:46
Speaker 1: companies in California certainly are hiring fewer people relativity the
19:50
Speaker 1: amount of funding that they're raised than companies and other
19:53
Speaker 1: parts of the country. I think obviously a part of
19:55
Speaker 1: that is just due to the cost of hiring here,
19:57
Speaker 1: but I think a part of it could also be
19:58
Speaker 1: companies that are trying to preserved capital. What are the
20:02
Speaker 1: sectors right now that vcs are allocating maybe more money
20:07
Speaker 1: than maybe we've seen in the past. Yeah, I think
20:10
Speaker 1: certainly one of the things that we see is fintech
20:13
Speaker 1: continuing to be particularly strong um both in terms of
20:16
Speaker 1: average size of deals and overall deal flow UM. So
20:19
Speaker 1: I think that's an area where both just judging from
20:22
Speaker 1: the investor sentiment that we connect with but also looking
20:25
Speaker 1: at the numbers, that I think we should expect to
20:26
Speaker 1: see uh pretty wide and continued pattern of growth for
20:31
Speaker 1: fintech companies. But also I think we start to see
20:34
Speaker 1: UM still still some decent traction and consumer goods and
20:38
Speaker 1: consumer hardware and so companies that have had a couple
20:41
Speaker 1: of big accepts in the space, and I think there's
20:43
Speaker 1: investors that are still leaning in. Can you give us
20:45
Speaker 1: a sense of the investments made by the venture capital
20:49
Speaker 1: community and sort of the trend line of them. Are
20:51
Speaker 1: they increasing, are they decreasing? Are they tending to shift
20:54
Speaker 1: more towards the higher bigger companies, are the smaller ones?
20:58
Speaker 1: What are you seeing? Yeah? Um, I think we see
21:01
Speaker 1: in general it depends a little bit on the sector,
21:03
Speaker 1: but overall continent UH pattern of growth. If you look
21:07
Speaker 1: at the deal volume of total funding, I think you
21:10
Speaker 1: know you do see a lot of still large growth
21:13
Speaker 1: deals coming into relatively small number of startups that are
21:16
Speaker 1: those that have the most traction momentum. But when you
21:19
Speaker 1: broaden the aperture and look across the entire spectrum, I
21:22
Speaker 1: think you continue to see UH a reasonably strong amount
21:26
Speaker 1: of activity, and not just in the usual places of
21:28
Speaker 1: California and New York, but I think small venture deals
21:31
Speaker 1: are getting done increasingly across the entire country. I think
21:33
Speaker 1: one thing we definitely see is that as companies start
21:36
Speaker 1: to branch out. Even though San Francisco is still the
21:39
Speaker 1: bulk of where we see most funding activity, there are
21:42
Speaker 1: places like Utah and Texas where we're starting to see
21:45
Speaker 1: a growth of startups and a growth of some early
21:47
Speaker 1: stage deals as investors get more comfortable with technology companies
21:51
Speaker 1: being built outside of just the Bay Area. Man, I
21:53
Speaker 1: know there's UM seed rounds, Series A, Series B. Are
21:58
Speaker 1: all those kinds of rounds as conscious of those? Do
22:01
Speaker 1: they share similar similarities in terms of strength or lack
22:04
Speaker 1: of strength? It's a good question. Actually probably not. It
22:09
Speaker 1: really depends. I think you can look at companies UM
22:12
Speaker 1: that you call around a seed round or call around
22:14
Speaker 1: a Series A that have wildly different sizes of revenue
22:17
Speaker 1: and a number of employees, And so to some degree,
22:19
Speaker 1: I think the naming nomenclature really just varies depending on
22:24
Speaker 1: how companies are trying to UH position themselves. But I
22:27
Speaker 1: think you do see certain trends like to raise a
22:30
Speaker 1: series A round. I think you most companies want to
22:33
Speaker 1: have UH an established business model, real revenue in the door.
22:36
Speaker 1: Maybe not quite a proven traction, but UM certainly enough
22:39
Speaker 1: points where you know you can justify a larger size
22:42
Speaker 1: of investment, and companies that move on to a series
22:44
Speaker 1: B of call it, you know, ten to fifteen million
22:46
Speaker 1: dollars or more, tend to have a repeatable business model
22:49
Speaker 1: where you know you're doing something that works. People are
22:52
Speaker 1: generally can see the pattern and see how you can
22:54
Speaker 1: go into a much larger business. So, even though I
22:56
Speaker 1: think there are differences specifically between companies at the at
23:00
Speaker 1: each round, right, you do see some transmit that tend
23:03
Speaker 1: to continue. Matt Miller, thanks so much for joining us.
23:05
Speaker 1: Appreciate your thoughts on the venture capital world. Matt Miller's
23:08
Speaker 1: the CEO of M Broker. They've just put out a
23:10
Speaker 1: report kind of detailing their views kind of what they're
23:13
Speaker 1: seeing in the venture capital community. And I think it's
23:16
Speaker 1: a Tommy discussion because, as you mentioned, Lisa, twenty nineteen,
23:19
Speaker 1: we came into the year thinking, boy, we're gonna really
23:22
Speaker 1: spread the wealth of the venture capital and private equity
23:24
Speaker 1: community to the public markets and public investors with you know,
23:28
Speaker 1: the Ubers and lifts of the world and we works
23:31
Speaker 1: of course, uh and some of those big high profile
23:34
Speaker 1: deals obviously been very disappointing for public equity investors. So um,
23:38
Speaker 1: I think the story we hear from the VC communities. Yes,
23:41
Speaker 1: there were some big disappointments, but there's a lot of smaller,
23:43
Speaker 1: midsized deals that continue to work well. Thanks for listening
23:46
Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can subscribe
23:49
Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast
23:52
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. Paul Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at pt
23:55
Speaker 1: Sweeney and Lisa abram Boy It's I'm on Twitter at
23:57
Speaker 1: Lisa A. Bramwoit's one before the podcast. You can always
24:00
Speaker 1: catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.