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Markets, The Fed, And Satellites · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Danielle di Martino booth,
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: let's get right to her. She's a CEO and chief
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: strategist for Quill Intelligence, also a former advisor at the
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. So, Danielle, thanks so much
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: for taking the time. I guess where I want to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: start with is you know, during the press conference from
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: FED Chairman Pal there's obviously questions about potentially a recession
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: slowing growth, and he took a pretty aggressive tact and
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: pushing back on that narrative. What's your take? What do
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: you think he's trying to do well. I think he's
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: trying to do his job, which is to use FED
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: speak to its fullest and to induce confidence in the
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: markets and induced confidence among those who are listening to him,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: to say we've got this under control. We're going to
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: be able to to navigate a soft landing. And of
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: course today we've heard that from from Governor Waller. We've
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: heard the month July in terms of when they're looking
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: at starting that balance sheet runoff. That would explain why
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: they used the phrase coming months. So clearly they think
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: that this spate of inflation that's induced by Russia invading
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Ukraine is going to be short lived and possibly be
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: coming off the time we get towards the end of summer.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Was he doing his job last year, Danielle, Oh gosh, no, heavens, no, no, no, no, no.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: You just saw first time homebuyers decreased. The National Association
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: of Realtors at Laurence June said that that a payment
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: in February was higher than it was a year earlier.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: At a minimum, you could say, you know what, we'll
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: hold off on treasury run off, but we'll go ahead
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: and be responsible to homebuyers who cannot buy homes because
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: they're too expensive. Will be respond will and let those
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: mortgage backs start to run off by themselves before treasuries. So, Daniel,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: what do you take of this new wrinkle. I guess
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: it's just from an economic perspective into the equation, which
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: is a hot shooting war in Eastern Europe. If I'm
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, I've got inflation, I've got slowing growth.
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Now I've got this geopolitical risk at how do you
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: think that factors into the Fed's calculus. Well, it should
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: obviously be a factor, right, This is a this is
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: a new idiosyncrasy that's going to affect confidence. Bank of
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: America has a their own proprietary confidence gauge. It fell
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: to the lowest in history in the week through March thirteenth.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: So there's clearly a dent being made. And people are
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: watching the headlines and they're disturbing. I get that. But
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: the primary source of economic new news out of this
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: situation is that it's pushing inflation higher. And I think
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: that that's a greater offset and that they should look
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: at it through that lens. Because of the high starting
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: point of gasoline prices rising year over year in Intebrary
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: CPI yeah, if it's just filled up on the way
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: to work today for well over five dollars a gallon,
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: which I guess I should consider myself lucky. Because the
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Germans are hoping for legislation that lowers their gas bills
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: to eight dollars a gallon. They feel like that should Well,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I get concerned when we start throwing around price fixing
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: because central bankers all talk to each other, So I
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: don't don't want anybody getting any ideas here in the
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: United States about price fixing. You can look back and
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: google Nixon and price fixing and see how that ended. No,
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: agree one percent. The thing is the price is already
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: fixed in Germany because like cent of what you pay
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: at the pump is taxes, you know, so all they
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: need to do is reduce some of that burden. And
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we have a similar, uh not nearly as bad,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: but um similar tax burden here. What I was going
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: to ask about is um the growth, the slowing growth?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: I guess is it the bigger concern. And it looks
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: like when you have a Moody shock, which we have had,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: or when you have the fed um starting to raise rates,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: which we have, or when you have yield curves invert,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: which we saw yesterday. Um, these things all tend to
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: lead to recessions. Not necessarily you're gonna have a recession
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: after that, but you know, all three of them at once.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: Do we have a recession next year. I'm not so sure.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: My good friend Peter Jucchini said this morning that his
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: base cases is a recession in two based purely on
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: what he seen in the rapidity of the cycle compression.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: We we got accustomed to ten years of expansion, and
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: now we're talking about things happening inside of a two
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: to three year vacuum. So there's no reason to go
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: by the old playbook that suggests that once we see
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: yield curves flirting with inversion, that it shouldn't be a
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: faster runway between that moment and when we go into
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: an actual contraction. And again, this is a byproduct of
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: the Fed waiting too long last year to take the
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: opportunity of beginning to normalize. Then were you surprised at all,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: at Danielle, that they did not raised by fifty basis
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: points this week. I was not surprised at all that
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: that did not surprise me in the least. I was
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: shocked that they said in coming months about the balance sheet.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: And I'm even more shocked because now that we have
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Waller out on the wires, you know what was what's
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: being contemplated among those on the Federal Open Market Committee
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: and that right now appears to be July. So I
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: was expecting there to there to be an indication that
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: the balance sheet run up would start in May. And
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: even is it going to be eighty billion dollars a
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: month or a hundred billion dollars a month. Lorie Logan
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: of the New York Fed Markets Desk and John Williams,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: the President of the New York Fits, they've been fairly
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: explicit in terms of where they saw that balance sheet
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: run up beginning, at what levels, and how aggressively they
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: would they would have it run, which would be more
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: aggressively than the last time they attempted this. And yet
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: they appeared to be extremely hesitant on this tack. And
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: that was what surprised me the most. Okay, Daniel D.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: Martino Booth, we knew we'd get the clean skinny on
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: what's going on with our federal reserve. Daniel D. Martino Booth,
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: CEO and chief strategist A Quill Intelligence still concerned that
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the photo Reserve is behind the curve here. Yeah, and
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: and the risk is that they get a little too
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: aggressive to try and catch up, and and that's what
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: could push you into It's unlikely they'll do that with
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the balance sheet, right, I mean, remember when they wanted
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: to reduce the four trillion dollar balance sheet, which was
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: already i poppingly large. Um, just a couple of years later,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: we're looking at nine trillions son nine times nine times
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: for those that get the reference. We've got some ECO
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: data out. Got the Leading Economic Indicator came out today
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: pretty decent. I'm gonna say I'm not you know, I
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: think our economy hanging in there, but let's get the details.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Automan Azoldrum, Senior director of Economic Research at the conference Board.
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Ottoman talked to us about the Leading Economic Indicator data
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: that just came out this morning. Yeah, good morning to
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: be here. So, yes, the Leading Economic Index came out
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: this morning. It increased about zero point three percent in February.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: That's reversing the revised decline from January, and overall, the
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Leading Economic Index remains on a moderately rising trajectory, pointing
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: to continuing expansion for the US economy. So, after after
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: weathering the omicrond wave in the beginning of the year,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: the US economy UM is in fairly good shape in
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: the first quarter. But what can you see about UM?
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: What's to come? Right? So there are some clouds in
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the horizon UM. And we've been uh, you know, looking
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: at what inflation means for household budgets, UH, consumer spending.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: We look at the volatility in stock prices UM and
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: one of the negative contributors this month was a building
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: permit spell and the housing construction sector is likely to
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: be negatively affected, you know, as the Fed continues to
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: raise rates for the rest of the year. So you know,
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: there are some clouds that will slow growth UM. And
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: we've seen that in you know, some of the UH
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: growth numbers getting revised for two UM. And unfortunately, on
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: top of that, we have the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: that is creating made a major shock for the global economy. UH.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: So it's it could also lower the trajectory and lower
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: growth rates further for two It's kind of where I
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: wanted to go Outoman. I think some folks are saying, hey,
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: when you put these rapid and significant rate increases along
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: with a shooting war in Europe, that might be enough
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: to push you know, some economies into a recession. Is
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: the R word in your vocabulary for the next year
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: or two? Uh not yet. So you know, the leading
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: economic indey is a gauge of recessions. It's used for
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: predicting recessions, and so far it hasn't been signaling anything
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: like that. And looking ahead, we have to watch that
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: very carefully. But the you know, underlying trend trajectory for
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: the US economy has been fairly healthy. UM and um.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: You know, even though revising growth rates down to around
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: three percent for UM, we we are still looking at
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: pretty robust above average growth rates in terms of what
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: the Fed does here. Um. Do you get the idea
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: that this is hurting the leading indicators? Uh, it does
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: create a potential downward risk for many leading indicators as
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: well as for the economy. Of course, that's what we're
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: trying to measure here. UM. So as those rates start
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: to go up to find inflation, we're going to begin
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: to see the impact starting out, you know, spilling over
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: into mortgage rates and credit card rates, and those are
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: the channels or mechanisms that work to slow the economy
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: and attempt to control inflation. So, UM, we will begin
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: to see some of that. But compared to the negative
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: effect of uncontrolled inflation on consumers purchasing power, it's uh,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: it's not de preferable. All right, olduman, thank you so
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: much for joining us and breaking down some of this
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: leading economic indicator data. Otoman also Drum, Senior director of
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Economic Research at the Conference Board. All Right, Matt, here
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: you go. You go get your bachelor's of Science and
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: mechanical engineering from Berkeley, and then you cross the metaphorical
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: street and get your pH d in material science and
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: engineering from Stanford. Then what do you do? You go
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to Wall Street. That's what our next guested Interesting Play
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Anchor Crawford, Executive vice president portfolio manager, Fred Alger Asset
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: Management Anchored. Thanks so much for joining us. You appreciate
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: you taking the time. All right, you've got all these
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: engineering degrees. How do you apply that stuff to the markets? Actually,
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: I don't. Parents are saying, Oh my goodness, I know
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: that is actually what they said. But um, you know,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: I think with engineering, all it is is pattern recognition.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, what we look for,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: even as investors, is different patterns in the market, different
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: patterns and companies and stocks in the numbers. And so
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: you really take that learning as an engineer and I'm
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: able to apply it to the markets. What are you
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: seeing in those markets? Right now. What are the patterns
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: you're seeing, because boy, you've got a lot of cross
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: currents on there that you have a lot of bricks
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: in that wall of worry. Now you get to add
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: geopolitical risks. How are you viewing the market right now?
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: You know it is the market is actually quite fascinating
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: right now in um. You know, we the end of
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: COVID and the return of normalism and a return to
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: normalization of COVID, at least in the US. We have
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: this geopolitical risk that we haven't experienced in three generations. UM.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We have reverberations of all of these effects on the
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: supply chains causing inflation readings that we haven't seen in
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: four decades. UM. So there's a lot of different cross currents,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: as you mentioned, in the market right now. However, what
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: we're focused on is really understanding what's getting baked in
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: and so we are very deep in the numbers for
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: each of the businesses that we own, and we we
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: probability weight the the effect of our recession for example,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: and UM, well sorry, what was that? What what what's
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: your probability of recession? Oh, we don't, we don't. We
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: just probability weighted, so we say, if there's a five
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: percent probability of a recession, this is where we think
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: the bare case will be, or the numbers should go
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: to if there's um probability of a recession, and the
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: numbers will toggle down right, So we basically can tuggle
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: the probability of recession up and down in the numbers.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: And what we found is that really there's some of
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: these businesses that we're looking at, especially in the growth sector,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: that have gotten completely sold off over the last three months,
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: are trading at free cash flow yields even in a
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: more recessionary case, that are quite compelling, especially relative to
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: the cash flow yield of the S and P. So
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: it is interesting because the market is has very quickly
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: baked in a much higher probability of a recessionary case
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: scenario because of all these cross currents that we had
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: talked about. So, which companies do you think anchor do
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: well and even in a recession case, not saying that
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: we're having a recession, but if we do, where do
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: you want to be? So look, I think I think
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: the recession is going to at least in the US
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: if if we do have a recession, which I am.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I am very much on a fense about if we
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: see a recession in the US. In part, they because
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the consumer is so incredibly resilient, they have two point
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: five trillion dollars of express savings that can be used
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: to thwart off the effects of a recession. UM they
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: have under leveraged balance sheets still that they can the
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: consumer can still lever up. However, if UM, you know,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: there are several very interesting themes in the market right
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: now that have duration and have growth aspects that that
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: are almost uh not related to the economy and so
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: in in big tech, if you look at a company
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: like Microsoft, UM you know of that business is they
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: have visibility over the next year into the into the revenues,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: and so you know, even in a recessionary case scenario,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: the number is on the on the top and the
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: bottom line. I am not going to flex up and
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: down all that much, in part because they're really the
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: hub of this digital transformation and industrial revolution that we
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: are experiencing right now. UM. On the other hand, if
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: you look at consumer, we believe that the higher end
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: consumer will be also quite resilient and they have a
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: great wealth effect that they've experienced from both the market,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: home prices both going up over the last few years,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: and their businesses like Veil Mountain resorts that are trading
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: at five and six percent free cash full yields as
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: you look out a couple of years, and we think
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: that they will be relatively resilient through through UM a
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: slowdown in the economy. Anchor energy has had a nice
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: run here got oil north of a hundred dollars a
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: barrel w T I has that trade played out? Has
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: which trade played out? Kind of the energy trade just
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: kind of being long energy? You know what? I think?
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: I think we're not going back to energy and stock
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: prices where they were at thirty dollars of barrel um
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: in part because of like people are realizing that the
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: there's this very strategic aspect to oil and UM. But
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: has it played out? I think I think it has
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: and in part the global economies will start to slow
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: UM and demand for for oil will will decline and
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: so UM. You know, I do I do think that
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: it has mostly played out. That said, I do think
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: that oil stays higher for longer UM and maybe not
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: at one forty where it got to at its peak,
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: but could it could it stay at eighty bucks for
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: a long time it could. All right, uncle, thank you
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Really appreciate you taking the time.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: And Court Crawford, e v P and portfolio manager for
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: Fred Alger Management. Let's talk space. Let's talk satellites. I
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: mean you can see basically what the satellites we have
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: in the air these days. You can see just about anything.
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: You can get a picture of just about anything. Peter Platts,
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: or CEO of Spire, joins us. Spire is a publicly
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: traded company went public via a spack it looks like
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: back in UM. Yeah, they offered twenty three million is
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: at ten dollars via my good friends of credits. Sweet.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: All right, Peter, talk to us about Spire. Give us
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: the thirty second elevator pitch. What inspire? What are you
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: guys up to these days? Absolutely appitude. We are a
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: data and analytics company and we're leveraging space to solve
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: business and e s G challenges for companies, countries and
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: communities all across the world. We are We designed and
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: launched and owned and operate the world's largest radio frequency
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: based UM satellite constellation to observe the Earth. You know,
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: we track some seventeen trillion dollars of global trade, the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: two trillion dollar aviation industry, and the weather all across
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the globe, which you also predict up to ten days out. Um.
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: And as you as well know that whether it is
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: impacting you know, at least twenty five trillion of global
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: GDP in with climate change that is just getting more extreme,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: you know, almost every single week. I want to say, um,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: we serve do you watch this war? Yes, we do, UM.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: And you know it is with data and insights from
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: space that the truth and transparency can be shed on
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: on such a global conflict. And I think we have
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: been witnessing this really firsthand um as it relates to
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: the situation in the Ukraine right now, UM, with with
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: commercial companies like a spire really bringing that data and
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: transparency to the world. UM. You know, our data has
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: been used by humanitarian efforts, you know, by the media
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: to bring that that knowledge and transparency as well as
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: some other areas as I'm sure you can you can
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: probably imagine and really being able to participate, um, helping
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: people and humanity in you know, this particular situation as
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: a European is uh, like I'm I'm from Austria is
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: something that is very very meaningful to me personally, so Peter.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: The supply chain, global supply chains, but a big, big
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: issue for the world's economies. It's a global story. People
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: are always trying to figure out where are the ships,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: where the trucks, where the trains? Um, how have you
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: kind of taken a look at that side of the business.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: So supply chain is a is a very very nice
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: industry for us UM from a customer perspective. UM we
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: track all of the world ships, where they are, where
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: they're going, what they're doing, how fast they are, where
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: they will arrive, why they will arrive, as well as
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the planes. And then as you imagine, once you are
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: on land and transportation happens in trucks, then whether it
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: has a massive impact on on potential disruptions there and
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: so everything from uh you know, the blocking of the
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Suez Canal and the and the ripple effects all across
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the world on the ports um to you know, just
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: today we put out a little story about the shutting
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: down of of Shenzen. You know, we have been able
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: to to monitor those activities and then help our customers,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: uh preempt them and know what to do based on
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: what is happening and how they can get a bit
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: of a leg up in their own supply chain management,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: and then their understanding of what is happening to their
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: own supply chain based on the data and analytics that
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: we can provide them. In terms of UM, your company,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: your stock has come down pretty substantially over the last
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: I guess six months. What's going on there? You know, honestly,
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: if if if I could predict the understand the market
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: with great certainty, I'll probably spent more time in Vegas
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: and rather than helping our customers. But I think I
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: think there's there's probably a number of elements. You know.
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: One of them is certainly that we are in a
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: in a very very risk off environment. I spent I
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: spent ten years and LASS so there's a quantitative investment
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: manager UMH in longer term trading. And certainly when you
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: have situations like uh a geopolitical crisis in Europe, when
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: you have a situation like a pandemic UM but then
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: at risk of indust rates rising, UM, you know, you
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: have a you have a very risk off environment that
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: has been you know, very negative for high growth companies UM.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think additionally you know, the the products that we
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: have serve industries that are vast and large, but they're
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: not you know, top of mind for people. I mean
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: you started off by talking about the pictures that you
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: can get from satellites, but the data that we do
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: that cover, for example, you know, four hundred billion dollar
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: fishing industry, that's just not as much top of mind,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: and I think I need to do a better job
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: in bringing that to life with people. Well, and what's
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: the growth outlook, I mean, what kind of revenues are
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: you expecting, say this year, and and what the margins
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: look like. Yes, so we you know, we had a
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: very very strong finish to the year. We exceeded guidance
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: both on the UH hop line and bottom line elements
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a region, the very top of it UM fourth quote
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: of revenue was fifteen million, up a hundred and six
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: percent year of a year UM. We reached seventy one
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: million almost of annually recurring revenue, which was in ninety
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: six percent year of a year increase. UM guidance for
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: this year on the revenue side is eighty five to
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: ninety million of revenue, which is a year of a
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: year growth rate of over a hundred percent at the midpoint,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: so growth is really really phenomenal. Um, we see the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: demand in every single one off our segments. We see
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: it in the h the maritime, the aviation, the weather,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: as well as the space services segment, and we continue
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: to drive, you know, very very aggressively to profitability despite
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that high growth rate. He Peter, thanks so much for
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: joining us. Really interesting company. Peter Platts or CEO of
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Spire again that trades on the New York Sock Exchange
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: sp i R. Thanks for listening to the bloom Markets podcast.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller and on Fall Sweeney I'm
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast. You can
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.