Latest / Combat Veteran News / Do Ukrainian Drone Pilots AVERAGE 100 Kills Each?

Transcript

Do Ukrainian Drone Pilots AVERAGE 100 Kills Each? · Combat Veteran News

• 0:00
  Russian mill bloggers are saying that
• 0:02
  the average Ukrainian drone pilot has
• 0:04
  over 100 kills. Is this really a true
• 0:09
  stat or is this just more Russian mail
• 0:12
  blogger cope? Let's break down what we
• 0:15
  know and see if the math really checks
• 0:19
  out. Okay, so this stat originally came
• 0:21
  to us from Preston Stewart, who I would
• 0:24
  tell you guys to follow him, but I
• 0:26
  strongly suspect and I can see in the
• 0:28
  YouTube stats that almost all of you do.
• 0:30
  And he is really dialed into the Russian
• 0:33
  mil blogger traffic. And one of his
• 0:35
  videos repeated a claim from these mil
• 0:37
  bloggers that the inside the Ukrainian
• 0:40
  unmanned systems forces, pilots with
• 0:43
  over a 100 kills are now considered
• 0:45
  average. These sources of course point
• 0:48
  out that the
• 0:51
  drone pilots or FPV drone pilots make up
• 0:53
  just 2.5% of the Ukrainian military but
• 0:57
  produce an outsized amount of kills.
• 1:00
  Now, normally I would look at a stat
• 1:03
  like this and say that this is cope,
• 1:05
  right? If you are an individual with
• 1:08
  over 100 kills to your name, uh that
• 1:11
  would put you among the greatest
• 1:13
  warriors in human history. Um, of
• 1:15
  course, man and machine have often
• 1:18
  combined to produce staggering effects.
• 1:21
  Uh, look, for example, at a uh bomber
• 1:25
  crew uh or for example, a a F-16 pilot
• 1:28
  with multiple tours in Afghanistan, they
• 1:31
  may find themselves racking up 100 plus
• 1:34
  uh kills of enemy infantry. But we know
• 1:37
  that Russian miloggers are often looking
• 1:39
  for, let's say, stories that explain the
• 1:43
  abject failure of the Russian military.
• 1:45
  And this is a good one. The idea that
• 1:47
  there's this highly trained group of
• 1:49
  pilots who are simply buzzsawing through
• 1:52
  Russian infantry. However, other sources
• 1:55
  confirm similar stories. For example,
• 1:57
  here is uh Marco Rubio, the US Secretary
• 2:01
  of State, who despite being essentially
• 2:04
  forced to parrot Trump's insane talking
• 2:06
  points, has repeatedly demonstrated that
• 2:08
  he does actually read the CIA's
• 2:11
  briefings. He actually gets real
• 2:13
  information from the State Department
• 2:15
  and from the US intelligence apparatus.
• 2:17
  That's why I put a lot of credibility in
• 2:19
  the numbers he cites. He uh Rubio
• 2:22
  again repeats a lot of Trump BS, but
• 2:25
  when he cites a stat, that stat is
• 2:27
  almost always backed up. And so I was
• 2:30
  shocked when he cited a stat that
• 2:32
  actually goes off of the standard Trump
• 2:35
  talking point, right? He said in a
• 2:37
  recent interview, I think this was maybe
• 2:38
  two or three weeks ago, that Moscow was
• 2:40
  losing quote five times as many soldiers
• 2:43
  a month as Kiev. Then he dropped a
• 2:45
  literal stat saying, quote, "The
• 2:46
  Russians are losing 15 to 20,000
• 2:48
  soldiers a month. Dead, not injured,
• 2:50
  dead." He said, "This is crazy." And
• 2:54
  while he repeated the Trump point that
• 2:56
  the war is bad for both sides, uh, a
• 2:58
  duh, war bad. What a take. And that the
• 3:01
  president wants to see the war end.
• 3:02
  Yeah, Ukraine and Russia also want to
• 3:04
  see the war end. They just don't want to
• 3:06
  see it end with their defeat. That's how
• 3:08
  war works. But
• 3:12
  the fact that he is casually admitting
• 3:15
  that for every five dead Russian
• 3:17
  soldiers, Keev loses Kiev loses just
• 3:20
  one. That indicates that someone out
• 3:23
  there is doing a lot of work in
• 3:25
  annihilating Russians without really
• 3:28
  taking much risk themselves. And we also
• 3:30
  know that over 80% of those kills are
• 3:35
  done by drone. This is straight out of
• 3:37
  Zalinsk's mouth. that four out of every
• 3:39
  five successful Ukrainian strikes
• 3:40
  against Russian forces are carried out
• 3:41
  by drones and that about se right in the
• 3:45
  spring of 2025 Ukrainians said that that
• 3:47
  number was about 70%. So we're seeing a
• 3:49
  rise in casualties inflicted by FPV
• 3:52
  drones again indicating that there is a
• 3:55
  massive amount of those 20,000 dead
• 3:57
  Russians are caused by drones. probably
• 4:01
  about
• 4:02
  17 to 18,000 of those uh Russian dead
• 4:07
  are killed by FPV drones. Now, I'm
• 4:10
  saying FPV. I'm FPV that's unfair
• 4:12
  because Ukraine also relies heavily on
• 4:15
  bomber drones. Um, and they have a bunch
• 4:18
  of other kind of innovative drones that
• 4:20
  can actually are not oneanddone uh
• 4:23
  one-way attack drones. That's the nice
• 4:25
  way of putting it. Now, before we break
• 4:27
  down the math, because Ukraine puts the
• 4:30
  math out there for us, and so we can
• 4:31
  mathematically verify this claim. But
• 4:34
  before we do that, I want to mention
• 4:35
  that if you want to help these guys,
• 4:37
  well, we've partnered with Ukraine aid
• 4:39
  operations to get Ukraine's drone pilots
• 4:43
  the stuff they need to succeed. Now, we
• 4:46
  aren't just focusing on strike drones.
• 4:48
  In fact, that's a fraction of what the
• 4:52
  drones role in the battlefield is. And
• 4:54
  in fact, we're helping all of some of
• 4:56
  the elite
• 4:58
  units in the unmanned systems uh center
• 5:03
  by hooking them up with ground drones,
• 5:05
  which are crucial for resupplying
• 5:08
  forward positions without risking
• 5:10
  soldiers lives, and even more
• 5:11
  importantly, evacuating wounded troops
• 5:14
  across places that no individual would
• 5:17
  go. There's also heavy lift transport
• 5:19
  drones, mid-range drones, and more. So,
• 5:23
  if you want to help these guys out,
• 5:24
  right, the link is in the description to
• 5:26
  donate. All right, the actually if you
• 5:28
  donate $200, First Unmanned System
• 5:30
  Center has said they would hook you up
• 5:31
  with a patch. And the 421st said they
• 5:34
  would hook you up with an additional
• 5:35
  patch for individuals that donate 400 or
• 5:38
  more. Plus, you can get even signed
• 5:39
  flags from some of these guys. Uh,
• 5:41
  custommade art with literally spent
• 5:44
  bullet shells. Some pretty cool stuff.
• 5:46
  So definitely thanks to guys like Martin
• 5:48
  uh uh Stelmack Honer, Jeff Mch, Peter
• 5:52
  Robert James, and more uh plus all the
• 5:54
  anonymous donors who have stepped up to
• 5:57
  help out these Ukrainian fighters. So
• 6:01
  let's do some math. Okay, so the Ukraine
• 6:04
  has a nice awesome English language
• 6:06
  leaderboard here run by SPS Group. And
• 6:10
  what's interesting and important about
• 6:11
  this leaderboard to know is that these
• 6:13
  are verified kills. Why? Because Ukraine
• 6:15
  has an entire system where if you can
• 6:17
  submit video of a kill then you get
• 6:20
  credit sort of uh basically the
• 6:24
  military's version of Amazon reward
• 6:26
  points or your credit card reward points
• 6:28
  and these units can spend those points
• 6:30
  to get more drones, more equipment, more
• 6:32
  gear and it's a system by which two
• 6:35
  things happen. First off, in order to
• 6:38
  train AI strike drones, which would make
• 6:41
  them even more lethal, you need a huge
• 6:44
  data set, like millions of strikes
• 6:46
  videos. And
• 6:49
  so by rewarding people for recording and
• 6:51
  submitting them, the Ukrainian research
• 6:55
  and development, the tech guys are able
• 6:57
  to build that data set to help train
• 7:00
  these strike drones, which we're already
• 7:02
  seeing on the battlefield now. But also
• 7:05
  by verifying these kills, you're
• 7:07
  creating an incentive system where you
• 7:09
  say, "Listen, the units, we don't care
• 7:10
  how you do it. We don't care how you
• 7:12
  figure it out, but we will reward you
• 7:16
  for getting these kills." It's no
• 7:18
  different than a enterprise, a
• 7:20
  corporation, where you say, "Listen, I
• 7:22
  don't really care how the farmer grows
• 7:24
  my corn. As long as it passes FDA
• 7:27
  inspection, you get it to market, you
• 7:31
  get more money. The person who grows
• 7:32
  more corn gets more money. The person
• 7:33
  who sells a better smartphone smells
• 7:37
  sells the most smartphones gets the most
• 7:38
  money. Bottom line. And as a result, you
• 7:41
  see your smartphones. I'd say we've had
• 7:43
  some pretty awesome innovations in the
• 7:45
  smartphone world. So this, believe it or
• 7:47
  not, guys, this is actually more
• 7:49
  powerful. This gamification of of
• 7:53
  strikes and military outcomes is more
• 7:55
  powerful is the powerful driving force
• 7:56
  behind drone innovation. And so they
• 7:59
  make it public. So we are looking at the
• 8:01
  four 14th Maguiars's Birds unit. This is
• 8:03
  one of the best drone units in the
• 8:06
  entire Ukrainian military and we are
• 8:08
  looking at the aggregated stats for the
• 8:10
  last 6 months. So what do we have? Well,
• 8:15
  we have enemy personnel in the last 6
• 8:18
  months reportedly
• 8:21
  involve about 10,000
• 8:24
  it says including destroyed. So damaged
• 8:26
  and destroyed inclusively. So we have
• 8:29
  about 10,000. So we can predict that the
• 8:32
  414th is on pace to do about 20,000
• 8:35
  kills per year. But how many pilots does
• 8:39
  that include? Because remember these
• 8:40
  units, they have pilots. Sure. But they
• 8:43
  also have drone engineers that help prep
• 8:45
  and and ready the drones for strikes.
• 8:47
  They also have on the back end they have
• 8:50
  uh reconnaissance teams. They have
• 8:53
  command centers. They have guys who just
• 8:55
  their only job is to do logistics
• 8:57
  running warehouses. In fact, one of the
• 8:59
  things that was fascinating is that when
• 9:01
  I was in Ukraine um and I visited a lot
• 9:04
  of these drone uh labs, they would say,
• 9:06
  "Listen, whatever you do, do not show
• 9:10
  windows, doors, or QR codes because they
• 9:14
  said we use barcodes and QR codes to
• 9:16
  track the logistics of every drone. we
• 9:18
  know where every one of these drones
• 9:19
  goes. We can track them from the
• 9:21
  manufacturer from lab to lab to
• 9:24
  logistics hub to the final strike. And
• 9:27
  they go, if so, if the Russians get a
• 9:29
  hold of this, they'd be able to unlock
• 9:30
  our whole logistics system. So, that was
• 9:33
  actually they were they would rather
• 9:35
  have me film a window or a door than
• 9:38
  have me film a barcode or QR code.
• 9:40
  That's how that's how important these
• 9:43
  logistics backend guys are. Unbelievably
• 9:46
  important. So, how many are actually
• 9:48
  pilots? Well, this reports uh about 550
• 9:53
  pilots. Now, that number uh might be
• 9:55
  higher, might be lower, but I think
• 9:56
  that's a good ballpark for the 414th
• 10:00
  because remember some of these pilots
• 10:02
  are recon pilots that have zero kills
• 10:05
  because they fly Mavics, they fly
• 10:08
  cameras, not strike drones. But let's
• 10:10
  just use the largest number we can and
• 10:12
  use 550, right? Then you're talking
• 10:16
  again in a typical year we'll say about
• 10:19
  20,000.
• 10:20
  So what does that mean? Simple math here
• 10:23
  guys. We're talking about a 20,000 kill
• 10:25
  year divided among 550 pilots. You see
• 10:28
  the average actually ends up being about
• 10:31
  36.
• 10:33
  But that I think is actually telling. So
• 10:37
  if this follows a normal distribution
• 10:40
  with an average of 36, right? then that
• 10:45
  means that 100 would be not that
• 10:48
  exceptional, right? So if I was to say,
• 10:52
  hey, make a normal distribution,
• 10:55
  right? With an average of 36
• 11:00
  and a total of 20,000,
• 11:04
  right? And let's say we've heard that
• 11:06
  some of the uh highest
• 11:10
  lethal lethality drone pilots exceed 500
• 11:13
  kills, right?
• 11:17
  We'll say a max of 500. So we'll say the
• 11:20
  the most lethal, let's say um the three
• 11:23
  third standard deviation, right?
• 11:27
  With a third standard deviation of 500.
• 11:29
  Let's see. Uh let's see. A Gemini is
• 11:31
  reportedly pretty good at math, right?
• 11:37
  So
• 11:40
  here we go.
• 11:42
  So if it follows a normal distribution
• 11:45
  with a mean of 36 and a third standard
• 11:48
  deviation hits 500, that means 500 is a
• 11:51
  one in 1,000 drone pilot roughly.
• 11:55
  Uh then what does that mean? That means
• 11:59
  that the average the the middle
• 12:02
  twothirds of drone pilots range from
• 12:06
  zero to 190 kills. So I think that is
• 12:10
  really interesting.
• 12:13
  That is super fast. You see, obviously
• 12:17
  you can't have zero kills, but likely
• 12:20
  this actually is probably true because
• 12:22
  most drone pilots are going to be new,
• 12:24
  right? and and as military operations
• 12:26
  go, people are either promoted or
• 12:28
  wounded or killed. And so, you're very
• 12:30
  unlikely to survive long enough to hit
• 12:32
  to 600 kills. So, I actually think this
• 12:33
  is spot on that you have a bunch of you
• 12:36
  have a a huge crop of people that sit at
• 12:38
  zero and then slowly they acrew more and
• 12:42
  more combat experience, right? And you
• 12:45
  can see that the middle the middle
• 12:47
  chunk,
• 12:49
  right? you is considered normal. You
• 12:52
  will be a normal drone pilot with up to
• 12:55
  190 kills.
• 12:57
  So that to me indicates that this is
• 13:02
  absolutely completely and utterly
• 13:04
  believably true. Now before we get out
• 13:06
  of here, I want to mention guys, check
• 13:07
  to make sure you're still subscribed
• 13:08
  because YouTube has been unsubscribing
• 13:10
  me people from the channel and it has
• 13:12
  been pretty bizarre and I think it's
• 13:13
  actually one of the reasons why my views
• 13:14
  have been as low as they have. So check
• 13:16
  to make sure you're still subscribed. If
• 13:17
  you've never subscribed, it can't hurt.
• 13:19
  Uh, and of course, a huge thank you to
• 13:21
  the members of Combat Vet News like
• 13:22
  Brendan, GS, Alfred, Peter, Gerard,
• 13:24
  Allan, William, Thomas, Def Jeff,
• 13:26
  Christine, the Lieutenant Folks. We
• 13:28
  really appreciate you guys, and we'll
• 13:29
  see you all in the next one. Cheers.