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The Favorites - Sweet 16 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: It is the Thursday of Sweet sixteen of March Madness,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: and of course we're bringing on the one named Wonder
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: the Action Network OG, a man who has been everywhere
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: across your video, podcast, written, dial social media talking about Stucky.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: He's going to break down every single give us a
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: pick or an opinion as we go through every single game.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: But before we bring on Stucky, gotta bring on my bff,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: my companion, my co host, Michael Padre, professional better Simon Hunter. Hello,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: So Simon, Hello Chad. It was like a sports overload
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: last weekend. I loved it. I was really basking in it.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Ratings for the tournament are higher than they've ever been. Uh.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's because of brackets and gambling. That's my take. Yeah,
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: what do you think of that? Gotta be I mean
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: it's and he goes hand in hand, where more people
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: are cutting chords, yet more more sporting events are being
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: watched more by the general public. There's there's a correlations
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: because people they want the live feed, they don't want
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the delayed feed. So to me, it makes total sense that,
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: you know, as people want to hate on things, be
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: negative and be like, oh, college basketball now it's like
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: it used to be, as though as fun as it
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: used to be. March Madness is his own beast. Chad
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: doesn't matter if you know all the names of all
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: the different players. Once the games get going, it's the best.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: I mean that that. I mean we'll talk about with
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Stuck here. I love to hear what side he was on,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: but that TCU Gunzaga, it doesn't get him much better.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: That's why we love college basketball because it's just you
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: never know what's going to happen. All right, before we
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: bring on Stuck, you, let me remind everybody because I've
• 3:12
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  Speaker 1: a guarantee. Stucky drop in knowledge. Tell me about your
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: weekend before we get to like Thursday Friday games. Tell
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: me about your weekend, because I can imagine a stucky
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: weekend for much madness is glorious. Yeah, no, I was
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: especially I was actually gonna go to Vegas but with
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Hi everyone. But then we had this event pop up,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: and then so I was like, well, I'm gonna be
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: traveling up to New York. I'll go up to Philly
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday see my mom and dad. So I scrapped
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: that trip. So it was a lot of me and
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: my dungeon, my man cave in my basement. And then
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I was out at our bars on Sunday, which was
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: so depressing, and in Lexington obviously rooting for Kentucky. It's
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: huge for the bars on there, for my wife, and
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: especially for the staff. If they win, they go to
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the next weekend and it's just a whole bananza. But
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: and they haven't been on a run and so long,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: um like twenty I since I moved there, they haven't won,
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: they haven't gone to the second weekend. It was a
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: lot of fun, but then it was depressing and then
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: everyone just clears out of the bars like it's Sunday, Yeah,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: there's there there also has a lot of college kids
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: on spring break, but it was Sunday and then like
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Kentucky lost, with the vibe just crashed. But obviously I
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: was out with some of my friends until the very
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: wee hours of the morning until that TCU shot when
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I I had TCU plus four and a half and
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: plus five and then they were down four. They I'm like, oh,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: they're not gonna foul. They're not gonna foul. They foul
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: point seven seconds left and then I'm like, I guess
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: I'm done. What a terrible way to end the weekend.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: And then Damian Ball lets the ball roll all the
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: way up while there was hugs and celebrations at mid court,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: and let's it all the way roll all the way up,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: almost hear at the three point line, picks it up
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: and so pure and just a brutal beat. If you
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: had Gonzaga an amazing way to that, we can if
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: you had TCU. So yeah, it's a really fun weekend overall.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: And we thought there was going to be a lot
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: of chaos and there was. Um So I'm looking forward
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: to this weekend too, like pretty much anyone can win it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's the beauty of the tournament. There's not
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: one team that cannot be touched. I do think Alabama
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: and Houston are a step above. But the beauty of
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: the tournament is it's a lot a lot of it's
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: just gonna come. It's it's not like an NBA series,
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: right where the game one, you remember like Iverson goes
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: crazy and beats that powerhouse Lakers team and then you're
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: like Oh wait, there's you gotta win four in the tournament.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: You're you're hot from three, the other teams off, You're
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: you're going home. You can advance, which is what we've
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: seen with Princeton, we saw it with Fairlie Dickinson. So yeah,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: fun weekend overall, and a lot of the blue bloods
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: are gone, but I still think we have a very
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: fun field us. So looking forward to these games and
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: the rest of the tournament. I love the tournament. Um.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: TCU Gunzaga friend of the podcast My Friends Esau gave
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: a tremendous breakdown of the TCU Gonzaga backdoor cover called
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: it the greatest bad beat in college basketball history, and
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: he said he's not overstating it. Um, it's resonating with people.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: The whole TCU thing is resonating. It as a better
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: It kind of became the story of the weekend, which
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: is always so interesting, right because you don't know what
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: it's going to be. It ends up being a game
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: where the score is, the outcome is is not in question,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: but the cover is in question. And that's why we
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: do it. That's why yeah, I'll push I'll push back
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: on the greatest just because of course, you push back,
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: it's not the greatest, No, I mean the greatest that
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: backdoor cover, of course it isn't. Yeah joke, Okay, come on, yeah, dame,
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: exact same exact for spread was one and a half
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: make split free throws due on half court ends. One.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: I remember being at ESPN Zone in Washington, DC when
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I was in college, all right, p to the ESPN
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Zone and watching that game and the just the cheers
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: like it wouldn't it wouldn't have been as great as
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: it was now everyone betting, But there's enough people in
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: there that had money on the game where the reaction
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: was pretty pretty crazy to watch. But yeah, it was
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: up there. Though it'll be talked about for a while.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Who is the Cinderella that you still have alive in
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: your bracket? My, sinder, I mean so my. When we
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: talked about the brackets last weekend on Big Bets on campus,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: we'll have our previous out later this week when we
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: go in depth on all these games. You know, I said, look,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: Houston and Alabama, I think those are the chalky and
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: you agree with this chat. When we went through our
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: our brackets too, Unfortunately I went with Kentucky. I couldn't
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: decide between Kentucky and Memphis. Ultimately went with Kentucky. It
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: didn't really matter because they both lost and then TCU
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: in the other regions. So my final four, my bracket.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: It took until Sunday night just because of the randomness
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: of TV scheduling, but I finally ripped out my bracket.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: I do have a future. I do have a future
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: on Creighton, and I do have them going to the
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Elite Eight. So I'm now a Creton fan. They looked
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: really good this weekend. They obviously had the draw break
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: right for them for now. You know, they get Princeton.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: They're ten point favorite. They're the biggest favorite to the weekend,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: so they're the biggest favorites to go to the Elite Eight,
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: where they would presumably face Alabama. But you know, Alabama's
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: not going to necessarily have an easy game with San
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: Diego State. I do think that they'll find a way
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: to come through. But yeah, I'll be a San Diego
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: State fan, not just in addition to my bet, which
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about in a second, but yeah, San Diego
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: State can win and then Creton can pull it out.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: I will be sitting pretty with that future. So that's
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: that's pretty much my team for now and is from
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: here on out. I'm a Creton Blue Jack Simon. Do
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: you have any lingering Cinderella's No, I did terrible. I
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: had Penn State making it to the final four, they're gone.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: I had TCU making a final four, They're gone. I
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Duke win it all, They're gone. I will give a
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: shout out to Fairley Dickinson, a Jersey school. Four years
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: when I was in high school, we would go up
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: there in late February or when the snow is still
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: on the ground on the turf and we'd play like
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: a little round robin, a kind of preseason thing up
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: there to play like Mountain Lakes, all these North schools,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: And I'll never forget thinking this is not a college.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: This is literally smaller than my high school. That Fairley
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: dicketson campus. And the fact that they or the team
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: that didn't even win their own conference, they got in
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: and then they took down the one seed. It's just
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: why we love college basketball. It's literally one of those
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: schools where it's like I don't even know how they recruit,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Like how do you get a kid to go to
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Fairley Dickinson much respect to that school, just because those
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: are kids I love to play basketball. They're not going
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: there a party or have fun. Is a little small
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: boy ore in school. Um those are true hoopers. So
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: that was pretty incredible. See they put off one of
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the bigger upsets. Honestly, we are arguably would be a story.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: But because of what is it now, we have two
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: sixteen seeds lost in the last three years. It's not
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: as cool, but it still is pretty pretty incredible. Keep
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: getting these crazy runs. Uh well, listen, Tobin Anderson, I
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: think that's his name, the coach uh signed with IONA today.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: So he couldn't get out of there. That's that. Yeah,
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: you know he couldn't get of there fast enough, fast enough.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Um uh wait, anyway, Simon, you I also have a
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: Yukon future. Those are two of my uh five exactly
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: what I was gonna say. Blue teams though, blue teams,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm I'm here for the blue teams crazy. That's Simon.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Simon's theory is still alive, and I'm hoping that it
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: comes to fruition because I've just I think the only two.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I guess UCLA is a variation, but get yeah, we
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: got them. We got Xavier. We got we got two,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: We got a couple of blues left. You got a
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: quarter of the fields below. Uh, listen as a Central
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Connecticut native, thirty five minutes from stores, we are all
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: in on Yukon. They looked amazing. Uh. Michigan State and
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Kansas will tip off the Sweet Sixteen on Thursday night
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: at six thirty eastern on TBS UM. Michigan State a
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: short favorite, Stucky, do you have a lean here? Yeah,
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: you're gonna You're gonna lose all of the listeners in Manhattan.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Kansas State, not Kansas. Kansas went down? Didn't I say
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Kansas State? Now? He said Kansas, Kansas State, little brother,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Kansas State doesn't get respect again. Yeah, should be a
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: really good game. This is uh in the garden and
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: they're both teams are led by New York City point guards,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: which is fun, who are electric and they both could
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: put on a show here. I tend to like Michigan State.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: They opened as an underdog and they quickly moved to
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: a favorite. Was hoping to get him as underdog, but
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't. I think there's gonna be a lot of
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: runs in this game. So if you're looking keep this
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in mind, like the lines are pretty efficient this time
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: of the year. And if you like it aside, but
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: you don't love it, and you're like, man, I wish
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: I got a little better number. You can always just say,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: all right, let me there's live better. You can say,
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: all right, let me see if I can get a
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: better number live, and that's a sweat in of itself.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: You can say, all right, let's hope they go down,
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: you know, nine to two early, and then I can
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: get an even better number. I like, you know this
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Kansas State team they beat Kentucky. Kentucky couldn't make a shot.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Their best shooter was twelve from three. It was just
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: one of those days where he couldn't hit any outside shots.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: As Kansas State team just wasn't the same away from
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: home all year. They do have a really good backcourt,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: you know, Izzo and the Sweet six team with those
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: guards and they're shot making. I think Michigan State's going
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: to advance. I wish I got a little better number.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: I may end up playing them small on the money line,
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: but I'm definitely gonna wait to see if I can
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: get a better number with Sparty. I think they ultimately
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: prevail here. But it's the margins are tight. I think
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a pretty competitive game. All right. So
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: the game that and by the way, I should remind
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: everybody listen is stucky on Big Bets on Campus because
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: it is the epitome of action network podcasting. It's inside,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: it's conversational, it's research driven, but it's got analytics. It's
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: professional betting that you can do in a bar. It's
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: that much fun. Big Bets on Campus. Go listen. Arkansas Yukon.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Yukon's getting the hook, you know around three and a half.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: I love this Yukon team. Johnny California Hawkins, big man
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: in the middle, the kid from Bristol Central coming off
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: the bench, number thirty two. Yeah, I like. I like
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: Yukon here too. I played them money Line when it's open,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: and I think they're going to advance. I think they're
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: just like a little better version of Arkansas. And if
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: you want to play Arkansas, you have to defend at
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: the rim. That is how they get almost all of
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: their offense, either to get to the line, get on
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: the offensive. Class they get to the rim, they cannot shoot.
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: They are horrific. They just they can't shoot from three.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: One of the worst shooting teams in the field, and
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: I think the worst shooting team that's left. They're not
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: going to make any outside shots against the length of Connecticut,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: They're not going to be able to control the glass,
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: and Connecticut can defend at the rim. So I think
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: what this comes down to is Connecticut can match their size,
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: their physicality, and I trust Connecticut to make more shots.
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: They're peaking at the right time. Over the last month
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: or so, if you look at a few different analytics sites,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: they've been the best team in the country in overall efficiency.
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, Arkansas has a ton of talent. Look,
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: they have three potential first round draft picks, but one
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: of them, Nick Smith Junior, he doesn't even play like
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: you didn't even play in the second half of last game.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: There's something going on there, you know, this Arkansas team.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I think it was a pretty good matchup against Kansas
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: not that strong at the rim, and they really pull
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: that out of a hat. So I think Connecticut advances here.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: I played them on a money line. Feel pretty confident
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: about it. This Connecticut team is extremely dangerous right now,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: and I think they're peaking at the right time and
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: they have the size and side to battle Arkansas at
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: the rim, which is what you need. That's basically what
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: Arkansas games come down to. The tournament is heating up,
• 16:19
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• 16:43
  Speaker 1: money line to point spreads to which team will be
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: cutting down the net in the Sweet sixteen. My favorite
• 16:49
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• 18:11
  Speaker 1: West Virginia. I know Simon is going to want to
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: ask you about Gonzaga UCLA because it's so much blue.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: But before we get to that, I know you bet
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: on Florida Atlantic plus five and a half because I
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: follow you in the Action Network Gap. Everybody should go download.
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: It's free. You can follow experts like Simon and Stucky
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: see what they're betting immediately if you follow them and
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: get alerts. And so I'm able to get on fau
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: A plus five and a half when I see Stucky
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: does it. Yeah, I like the owl's here. It's funny.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: You could still see even at this late and year,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: you can you can still see recency bias in people
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: after just one result. Right going into last weekend Duke Tennessee.
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: The entire world is betting on Duke, and everyone is
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: saying Tennessee stinks and Duke is going to win this
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: game easily, and every report from every sports book out
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: there is we need Tennessee. The whole world is Bettingduke.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: Click they know the final score. Well, Tennessee wins that
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: game kind of just bullied. Duke was just not physical
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: enough and their youth really showed. And now everyone's saying
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Tennessee's legit, they can win it all. This team is
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: for real, Like what happened to the day before the
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Tennessee team, who also still you know, they lost one
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: of their most important guards in Zigler for the year.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think Florida Atlantic this is this line
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: is too high. This is a really deep, physical, experienced team,
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: and then they play four out. They have a seven
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: footer in the middle, but then they play with four
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: out four guys who can shoot. Duke's not really a
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: good shooting team. And what you need to do against
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: this Tennessee defense is because they are physical as you
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: need to be able to hit shots. You need to
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: be able to swing it around the perimeter, and you
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: need to be able to hit threes. No one can
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: make threes in the SEC all year, which is why
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: the three point defense was so good. But they give
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: up a lot of three point looks. Florida Atlantic can
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: hit them there. I think they're being slept on here.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: I think you played this game last week in this
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: you know, on Saturday, instead of Tennessee Duke, this line
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: would have been three and a half four. But I
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: think you're getting a little inflation because of what Tennessee
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: did to Duke. And I think Florida Lanta keeps us
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: close it's also a Tennessee team that remains limited offensively,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: so it's not a team that you should ever feel
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: comfortable with, you know, laying five and a half points
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: in a tournament game. So I'm more than happy to
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: fade Tennessee as a decent sized favorite here. I wouldn't
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: be surprised if Florida Landa pulls this off outright, but
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be right down to the wire.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: More than happy to have five and a half of
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: my back pocket, which I was saying, is there any
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: good value on this Gonzaga Ucla game? Or is this
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: this game price right? I mean it's it's one of
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: those numberies that it has been bouncing around a little bit.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Now it's kind of settled in here as we sit
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: here talking on Thursday. Yeah, I like I like Ucla
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: here just because if you have this is a pace clash.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: And we saw with Gonzag and TCU two teams that
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: want to get up and down and run, and that
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: game was played into the eighties. It was kind of
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: conducive to both and it was back and forth and
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: gad Zaga made the run late in the game. Ucla
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: won't let you get out in the transition. They want
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: to slow the game down to a crawl, and I
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: tend to favor teams that do that against teams that
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: want to run. In the tournaments, I think it's easier
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: to slow the game down, and us LA pretty much
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: does that to everyone. They just don't let you get
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: out in transition. Gonzaga still has a major weakness defending
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: at the rim and just defending overall in general. So
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: you know, and TC was missing their big man, Eddi Lampin.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: I think would have been huge in that game and
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: made the difference. So I like UCLA to prevail here.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: I think the Gonzaga defense is one of the weaker
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: units remaining in the field. I think that's gonna end
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: up costing them. Look, their offense is great, Timmy's great,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: they have shooters or if they're hot, they could win
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: this game. I don't think it USA is going to
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: blow them out of the water, but I do think
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: that they're gonna get their revenge from a couple of
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: years ago. And it's even crazier that seventeen years ago
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: to the day when they're gonna be playing seventeen years
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: ago of the day is the game where they played
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: in two thousand and six with Adam Morrison crying. I'm like,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: how was that seventeen years ago? How old are we?
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: But yeah, they've had some classics in the tournament. I like,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: I like DCLA here to prevail with their seniors leading
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: the way. That makes me sad. I want Gonzaga is
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: one of those teams that I just want to win
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: a national title. Yeah. I root for the program, I
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: root for the coach. I like um. I admire and
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: respect a guy who has stuck around and just built
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: greatness in the middle of nowhere, has had many of
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: opportunities to go elsewhere and has just decided this is
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: where I'm at. We're going to build something substantial. We're
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: going to build something that lasts. I think it's really
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: impressive what Mark Few has done. And there's honestly no
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: other team in the tournament right now that I personally
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: feel strongly about other than you can so like, I'd
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: love to see Gonzaga actually win a title. It makes
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: me sad when you say you feel like UCLA it's
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: going to advance, because I want Gonzaga to do it
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: so badly. They're not. They're gonna have a shot. I
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: haven't even bet UCLA yet, so yeah, they're they're gonna
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: have a shot. If they're making their outside shots, you
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: pretty much need to do against UCLA. Yeah, they're they're
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: They're in the mix, so it's not a bad secondary
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: horse to pick off the root for chat, I could
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: see why you just want them to get over the hunt.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: I do. I just wanted to get over the hump
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: I root. You know, true Cubs fan talking here. It is,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: by the way, you don't think that informs my thinking
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: when you did a Chicago sports fan, it informs your thinking,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: and honestly, I think it says a lot about who
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: you are. Either you are an empathetic person who feels
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: for the rest of fandom who might be struggling with
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: the feelings you've had, or you're a bitter person who
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: was like, fuck them, it took me forever to win.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: They have to wait forever to win. Listen. Yeah, yeah,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: I've read it for the Cups. I always used to
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: read for the Cups. Now then once they wanted I
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: said fuck them. Then then that's fine. They got there,
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: they got their World series. But I'm just surprised you
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: didn't transition that into more Bears talk. Well, we can
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: talk about the Bears, but I don't want to lose
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: any more listeners than we already have. Uh, San Diego State,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: you mentioned visiting Alabama. I love this team, love the
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: narrative with the coach and him being a Steve Fisher
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: assistant for so many years, both going back to Fab
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: five and then at San Diego State and getting this team,
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: and the team's been really good. I'd love to see
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: an upset here, can I tell you? Listen? Nick Saban
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: suspended that kid on his team who was driving one
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty one miles per hour to day and
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: it's it's debating in the internet world this week that
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: he threw a little bit of shade and the Alabama
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: basketball coach and eight oats who didn't suspend Brandon Miller,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: and Nick Saban basically said, there is no such thing
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: as being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: You make your choices, you make your decisions about who
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: you hang out with. Um. But there's something about this
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Alabama team that I root against. And I don't know
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: if it's the situation or what, but I want San
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Diego State. Yeah, I don't blame it, but it's a
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: little easier for Saban with what he's done to suspend
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: anybody at any time, and also to do it in
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: like in March. Yeah, March's little little different for college
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: football and college bastball. But yeah, I like San Diego
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: State here. I bet them plus seven and a half
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: and they I don't know if they have enough firepower
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: to win this game out right. But again this goes
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: back to San Diego State wants to slow it down,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: slow the game down to a hall. Alabama wants to
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: get out and run right, use all their athletes, and
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: they want to get out in transition. I think San
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: Diego State and they have one of the best game
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: planned coaches in the entire country. So you get, you know,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: a couple extra days to prep here, which I think
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: favors them a bit. But what Alabama is, they are
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: like the embodiment of analytics. They just it's three in rim.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: They want to shoot threes and they want to get
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: to the rim. They never shoot in the midrange. Well,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: San Diego State is the best three point defense in
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: the country, and they have a lot of length at
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: the rim and they're really strong at defending there. So
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: they match up pretty well. On the other side, Alabama,
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: you got to kind of beat them in the mid
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: range with the way that Alabama plays schematically on defense,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: and that's the entire San Diego State backcourt. So there's
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: a lot of variants. Like Matt Bradley and company, he
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: could shoot them out of this game, but they have
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: the talent and prows in the mid range that just
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: consistently that jumpers slow this game down. And then most importantly,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: it's one of the best defenses in the country. They
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: can defend the three and defend at the rim. That's
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: what Alabama does. They want to do it more than
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: any other team in the country. They hate shooting two
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: two jumpers. So I think San Diego State matches up
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: here of it and a half. It's a lot of
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: points in a game that I think will be lower
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: scoring than a normal Alabama game, and they just match
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: up too well. So yeah, I like the aspects with
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: the points here, and yeah, I'm with you. I'll be
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: rooting for them to pull off the upset as well.
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: You nailed it last week saying the ACC is having
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: a down year. Who would have thought our last team
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: from the ACC left would be Miami and they're going
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: up against Houston here, another big matchup of a big spread.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: You have the same feelings for a dog. Here is
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Miami's luck about the run out because man, are they
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: on a crazy run right now? Yeah, I tend to
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: lean Houston. I think the stift line is pretty close
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to fair. I'm making a tad higher. But there's also
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: the injury risk with Houston's guard too, if they flex
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: their depth last week when their their guards were in
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: foul trouble and hurt and then they just they really
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: just turned it on in the second half without them.
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: But they have a couple extra days to get healthy
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: and rest up here, so we'll see if Sasser and
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: shed are one hundred percent healthy. If they are, I
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: think this line is a little short, but because if
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: you look at this matchup that I mean, the Miami
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: defense has been their problem all year. They're outside the
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: top one hundred and an adjusted defensive efficiency. You never
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: really see a team make a deep, deep run in
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: the tournament with a flawed unit. And look, they want
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: to pressure you, and they have excellent guards, which does
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: play in March, and we saw it last year. They
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: their guards went on a run and they're well coached
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: as well. But Houston's not bothered by pressure. And you know,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: Houston's gonna get every offensive rebound in this game, which
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: is a problem for Miami, and I don't think that Miami.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: Since Houston's not bothered by pressure, I don't see how
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Miami's going to consistently get shots. And mainly because also
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: Houston's gonna get a ton of offensive rebounds they can
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: defend their guards on the other end. This is an experienced,
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: well coached Houston team. With the injury risk, it's probably
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: a stay away. But I don't I can't. It's hard
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: for me to see Miami pulling off this upset. I
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: think San Diego State actually has a better shot of doing. So,
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: why do you think jim Ler Niggah is a good coach?
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: And how do you how does he seem to connect
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: with his players? Yeah, he's like a He's all into
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: like psychology, psychology books and he gets deep into that
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: stuff on like how to connect on a personal level
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: with his players. And he's every year his players seem
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: to love playing for them, which I think goes a
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: really long way. I think about this like the Illinois
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: team when I was watching them this year, like I
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: was like, Brad Underwood and this day he hates this
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: team and this team hates him, and everyone hates each other.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: You never really see a Miami team like that. And
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I think that goes a long way into some of
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: the things that Larenega incorporates that aren't necessarily basketball related
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: but do impact, you know, from a team perspective, and
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: that that goes a long way. Building camaraderie and just
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: having a locker room where everyone likes each other. It
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: can go through the grind of a season. So he's
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: that's one of his biggest strengths for sure. He's a
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: great coach. Yeah, that's such an interesting comp Illinois. You know,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: as a Chicago guy, I watched Illinois. I've always liked
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Illinois basketball. I've been pretty surprised that Underwood has been
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: able to recruit the talent he's been able to recruit
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: the past few years and put this team in a
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: position to sort of be a potential number one seed
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: for the past three or four years. I think he's
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: been there five or six years. It makes no sense
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: to me because it doesn't seem joyful when he's coaching
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Liternega seems joyful. Yep, agreed. I think that's what it is,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: all right. We got the Blue Jays. They're ten point favorites,
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: are big favorites against Princeton. We love the Tigers, we
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: love watching him play. It's a Cinderella story. But I
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: also love Creighton, and I love McDermott, and I love
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: this team. I want this team to do well. Yeah,
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: this will be a tough task for Princeton. I don't
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: know if I can like ten but if I had
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: to bet it, that's where I would I would go.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: But look Princeton. In the first two rounds, they played
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Arizona and Missouri, two teams who want to run, get
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: out half to play fast, don't really love playing in
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: the half court and grinding, and Princeton slowed the game
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: down again, another example of one of these teams that
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: wants to slow the game down, and then they were
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: able to dictate tempo against the team that wants to
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: get out and run. Missouri also missed every three. But
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Craton's comfortable in the half court. They're not a team
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: that needs to get up and down there. You know,
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: I think middle of the pack as far as adjust
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: a tempo, their offense is excellent. Princeton isn't going to
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: get any offensive rebounds here, which they were able to
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: do against Missouri's every one of the worst rebound teams
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: in the country. Creton is elite when defensive rebounds. Prince
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: is going to make shots. It's not a great shooting team.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: They're capable, but a lot of times you see these
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: fifteen seeds, great story, magical run the first weekend, and
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: then you know, the second weekend, new location kind of
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: come crashing back down to earth and he sets in.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't think this is a great matchup
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: for Princeton because if they if they were able to
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: slow it down, that's perfectly fine with Creyton, who just
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: has much better athletes, much better players, and just much
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: better talent overall. So I think this is the end
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: of the Cinderella run for the Princeton Tigers. I was
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: just gonna say, is New Jersey an absolute powerhouse? We
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: had Saint Peter's last year. I think we had Ryder
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: one year. How many basketball schools have we got? Rutgers
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: is an afterthought, Um, well, look it was a fifteen seed,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: went to the Sweet sixteen for the second time ever
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: two years ago in or Roberts. Last year is the
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: first time I went to lead eight and maybe maybe
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: we're doing we want to go to the final four.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: I don't say it, but who it's the beauty of
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: the tournaments. The best hot hot from three and Creton
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: can't hit a shot, and then guess what, there's six
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: minutes to go in the game and it's tied. The
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: crowd is going to turn and then they're gonna be
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: rooting for Princeton and then Craton's gonna get tight and
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: then everything can work against them from that point on.
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: So that's yeah, that's that's the beauty of it. You
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: like anything that's Xavier Texas game or is this to
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: stay away Vine? I think it's pretty fair, but I
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: kind of like the over here. Um there's been a
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: tournament of unders. There's a new ball that some teams
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: have to use, which I think has hurt. But they're
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: you know, they've had a weekend of it now and
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: then I think some of the rims last week. We're
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: so tight at certain locations. We'll see what it looks
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: like this weekend. But both Xavier is an elite offense
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: and they also want to play really fast, but their
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: defense has a lot of issues, especially on the perimeter.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: And Texas. You know, you think about this Texas team,
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: They've been in a lot of like slogs, but that's
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: in the Big Twelve. You get in those kind of
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: grinders again and they just become these physical matches. But
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Texas dna is they want to play faster, and they
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: have guards that want to get up and down, and
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: they should be able to do what they want on
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: the perimeter against the Xavier defense. So I think this
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: game ends up going up, up and down the court.
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: I liked the Xavier over last weekend after there was
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: like thirty unders in a row that hit luckily that
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: got through the window on Sunday. I think this is
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: another over on two teams that will be more than
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: comfortable going up and down the court with both offenses
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: having advantages. So yeah, I'm gonna go up against the
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: under trend again. But I think Xavier's are really good
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: over team, great offense, play, fast, question questionable defense, and
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: that I think Texas can exploit. But Xavier will have
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: some advantages on offense too, So I think this could
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: be your most up and down Did you have a
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: lot of teams that are up and down this round,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: but they're playing teams that want to just make the
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: game a complete crawl. This is a game where both
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: teams are like, fine, you want to run, we'll run.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: You miss, we'll run after we miss, so we know
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: you're gonna run. And then I think that gets contagious.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: So I could see this being up and down whole way.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be on the over here and if needed,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: hopefully we get some fouls late. Stucky Action Network Gog,
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: host of the Big Bets on Campus podcast. I feel
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: so informed. I'm looking forward to seeing you this weekend, Buddy.
• 35:18
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• 35:20
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