Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Disney Shares Slide as Profit Outlook Overshadows Streaming Wins
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- 0:23Speaker 2: One of my companies I used to cover the Walt
- 0:25Speaker 2: Disney Company Mickey Mouse. They reported some numbers, better than
- 0:29Speaker 2: expected numbers, so of course stocks down two point nine percent.
- 0:32Speaker 2: So the Walt Disney Company reported better than expected third
- 0:34Speaker 2: quarter earnings, with continued growth at its parks and streaming
- 0:37Speaker 2: business overshadowing a tough climate for movies and traditional TV.
- 0:42Speaker 2: Let's break it down with Keitha Rungino that she covers
- 0:44Speaker 2: all the media stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence. Keitha, it seemed
- 0:48Speaker 2: to me like on the service, a pretty good quarter
- 0:50Speaker 2: for Disney. What's the street a little concerned about?
- 0:55Speaker 3: Yeah, really good quarter for Disney. Paul the beaten raise,
- 0:59Speaker 3: for sure, I think Elevator, you know, expectations might have been,
- 1:02Speaker 3: you know, slightly high, and the fact that they didn't
- 1:05Speaker 3: necessarily give us any specific guidance for fiscal twenty twenty six.
- 1:09Speaker 3: They did point to a raised guidance for EPs growth
- 1:14Speaker 3: for fiscal twenty twenty five eighteen percent now instead of
- 1:17Speaker 3: sixteen percent, But they didn't necessarily give us anything specific
- 1:20Speaker 3: for fiscal twenty twenty six. That could be a slight
- 1:22Speaker 3: source of disappointment. Other than that, the only other thing
- 1:26Speaker 3: that I think might be causing this reaction is that
- 1:29Speaker 3: they did say that they will stop disclosing Disney Plus
- 1:32Speaker 3: subscriber numbers. But again, this is not something totally unexpected.
- 1:35Speaker 3: I mean, Netflix has stopped doing this. We're seeing this
- 1:38Speaker 3: kind of move away from just subscriber numbers to a
- 1:40Speaker 3: greater focus and profitability.
- 1:42Speaker 4: I want to zero in on parks because I'm still
- 1:44Speaker 4: scarred by how expensive it was when I visited a
- 1:47Speaker 4: couple of years ago as an adult. But how sustainable
- 1:50Speaker 4: is their strong parks performance given the divergent domestic and
- 1:53Speaker 4: international performance.
- 1:56Speaker 3: Very sustainable, Isabell. So you know, we saw Domesta stick parks,
- 2:00Speaker 3: and I say that because you know domestic parks actually
- 2:02Speaker 3: coming into this year, Coming into this quarter, there were
- 2:05Speaker 3: a lot of worries, one of course, about the general
- 2:07Speaker 3: macroeconomic environment, but the bigger source of worry was really
- 2:10Speaker 3: the opening of Epic Universe, which is you know, Universal's
- 2:14Speaker 3: big Florida theme parke at traction. But the fact that
- 2:17Speaker 3: it had absolutely no impact at all, or very very
- 2:21Speaker 3: modest impact, if at all, is really amazing, and it
- 2:25Speaker 3: just kind of speaks to the resilience in Disney's business model.
- 2:28Speaker 3: They reported again very very strong per capita growth, you know,
- 2:32Speaker 3: in terms of food and beverages, in terms of concessions,
- 2:35Speaker 3: so all of that doing really well. And the reason
- 2:37Speaker 3: I'm so positive about this business going forward. First of all,
- 2:40Speaker 3: it contributes about fifty five to sixty percent of Disney profits.
- 2:42Speaker 3: Are really really important to their top line, to their
- 2:44Speaker 3: bottom line. Definitely, they have a lot of upcoming capacity,
- 2:48Speaker 3: So the biggest source of expansion over the next few
- 2:50Speaker 3: months is really going to be their cruise ships. They're
- 2:53Speaker 3: launching two new cruise ships, their biggest ever actually, which
- 2:57Speaker 3: is going to come on board in November, and this
- 3:01Speaker 3: one of them sets sail from Asia and that basically
- 3:03Speaker 3: takes the number of cruise ships to eight cruise ships,
- 3:06Speaker 3: effectively kind of doubling their capacity in a span of
- 3:09Speaker 3: just maybe two to three years. So that is going
- 3:12Speaker 3: to really buoy you know, both top line and bottom
- 3:15Speaker 3: line going into twenty twenty six, and then beyond that,
- 3:18Speaker 3: you really have this huge sixty billion capital expansion plan
- 3:22Speaker 3: that is really going to play out over the next
- 3:24Speaker 3: five to ten years. So we're going to see a
- 3:26Speaker 3: lot more attractions all over the world. We're going to
- 3:28Speaker 3: see that new Abu Dhabi park come out, So there
- 3:31Speaker 3: is really a lot of you know, a sustained momentum
- 3:34Speaker 3: that we can expect at the park's going forward.
- 3:36Speaker 2: Kitha talked to us about that deal they just made
- 3:38Speaker 2: with the NFL. It seems like a really positive development.
- 3:42Speaker 5: For the company.
- 3:44Speaker 3: Yeah, it's really good. I think from a Disney from
- 3:47Speaker 3: an ESPN standpoint, that they're so closely aligned now with
- 3:50Speaker 3: the NFL. I mean, the NFL is absolutely the premium property,
- 3:54Speaker 3: the gold standard, Paul. You know this well when it
- 3:56Speaker 3: comes to you know, sports properties in the US. And
- 3:58Speaker 3: the fact now that they're going to be able to
- 4:01Speaker 3: use all of this content for their upcoming esp and
- 4:03Speaker 3: streaming launch, I mean that itself just kind of gives
- 4:07Speaker 3: it a tremendous boost, I think even before you know
- 4:10Speaker 3: it comes on board. So it's great for the product.
- 4:14Speaker 3: It's also great from a strategic standpoint because the NFL
- 4:17Speaker 3: is obviously one of the most important sports properties, and
- 4:20Speaker 3: this really gives them access or it at least definitely
- 4:23Speaker 3: gives them a little bit of an advantageous position compared
- 4:26Speaker 3: to let's say, an Amazon or a Netflix or an
- 4:28Speaker 3: Apple if they want to ever outbid you know, the
- 4:30Speaker 3: current media partners. So definitely, I think a strategically, very
- 4:34Speaker 3: very sound move on the part of Disney.
- 4:36Speaker 4: So it seems like we had a good quarter. Runway
- 4:38Speaker 4: for growth is really just long and wide. What downside
- 4:41Speaker 4: risks remain then, especially around the macro uncertainty and Tiriff exposure.
- 4:45Speaker 3: Do you see, Yeah, maybe a little bit of execution risks.
- 4:50Speaker 3: So we still really don't know how this whole. I mean,
- 4:52Speaker 3: obviously everybody is very excited for the ESPN product launch,
- 4:56Speaker 3: but we still don't know how exactly that's going to
- 4:58Speaker 3: play out. Again, a huge source of upside it is
- 5:00Speaker 3: going to be the streaming business. Everybody's expecting huge cost
- 5:03Speaker 3: savings when it comes to the integration of Hulu and
- 5:05Speaker 3: Disney Plus. But again, execution is a little bit of
- 5:08Speaker 3: a risk. And then you pointed out you know macro factors.
- 5:11Speaker 3: Remember Disney still obviously has huge exposure because of its
- 5:14Speaker 3: parks business, and anytime we see kind of a slowdown
- 5:17Speaker 3: in the economy, we do feel that in the parks
- 5:19Speaker 3: as well. And of course advertising also, so you know,
- 5:22Speaker 3: they do have a substantial exposure to advertising because of
- 5:25Speaker 3: their TV networks business. So there again we can see
- 5:28Speaker 3: a little bit of an impact. But overall, as it
- 5:31Speaker 3: stands right now, the business seems to be in really
- 5:32Speaker 3: good shape all right here.
- 5:34Speaker 2: The problem childs though, are the broadcast networks and the
- 5:36Speaker 2: cable networks. What you know, just because of cort cutting
- 5:39Speaker 2: that they're just declining businesses. What's the company saying about
- 5:43Speaker 2: what they're going to do with those businesses.
- 5:46Speaker 3: They haven't said anything explicitly, Paul. So a few years ago,
- 5:49Speaker 3: you know, this idea was floated that maybe they kind
- 5:52Speaker 3: of spin off ABC, their broadcast network, maybe they spin
- 5:55Speaker 3: off their linear cable channels, all of that. You know,
- 5:59Speaker 3: noise is kind of quietened down, you know, bar Biger
- 6:01Speaker 3: basically said, no, no, no, we need these businesses. They're
- 6:04Speaker 3: all kind of integral to the whole Disney story. So
- 6:06Speaker 3: we haven't heard anything recently that being said. Just this
- 6:11Speaker 3: whole deal with the NFL, the NFL kind of taking
- 6:14Speaker 3: an equity stake. It almost seems like they are prepping
- 6:17Speaker 3: for ESPN to kind of ESPN and maybe ABC to
- 6:20Speaker 3: kind of coast solo. Remember, Bob Biger only has a
- 6:24Speaker 3: few more months left, so the end of twenty twenty
- 6:27Speaker 3: six he leaves Disney, or at least that's what he says. Yeah,
- 6:32Speaker 3: we think, and I really think he kind of wants
- 6:36Speaker 3: to get this deal done so to separate ESPN because
- 6:39Speaker 3: it's not really core to the rest of the Disney properties.
- 6:43Speaker 3: But again it's a little bit of a wait and watch,
- 6:45Speaker 3: but nothing explicitly, you know, stated from Disney management about
- 6:48Speaker 3: what they want to do with the linear piece of
- 6:50Speaker 3: the business.
- 6:51Speaker 4: So ESPN is getting a fresh spin with an August
- 6:53Speaker 4: twenty one launch. It will be thirty dollars a month
- 6:56Speaker 4: for the new streaming app. What do you make of
- 6:58Speaker 4: that price? You think people will pay up for it
- 7:00Speaker 4: or is that steep?
- 7:03Speaker 3: It's a high price point, there's no doubt about it.
- 7:05Speaker 3: I think most people were kind of expecting somewhere in
- 7:07Speaker 3: the twenty three to twenty five dollars range. That said,
- 7:10Speaker 3: what we just ran a survey actually at Bloomberg Intelligence,
- 7:13Speaker 3: and what we found is that there's actually a lot
- 7:16Speaker 3: of interest in this product, so we think that the
- 7:18Speaker 3: updake will be fairly strong, and the Updake not so
- 7:20Speaker 3: much as a standalone product, but when you bundle it
- 7:23Speaker 3: with Disney Plus and Hulu, so they are running a
- 7:26Speaker 3: pretty attractive promotion. So for the first year, you can
- 7:29Speaker 3: get Disney Plus, Hulu and ESPN at a thirty to
- 7:34Speaker 3: thirty dollars price point, which which seems like really good value.
- 7:36Speaker 3: So I think we're going to see a lot of
- 7:38Speaker 3: people come in initially through the bundles at least.
- 7:43Speaker 2: All right, great stuff as always, Keith I, thank you
- 7:45Speaker 2: so much for chatting with this.
- 7:47Speaker 5: Keitha ranganof and she's the media Analyst.
- 7:49Speaker 2: The media anamals the Bloomberg Intelligence covering all those fun
- 7:53Speaker 2: companies in the media space.
- 7:56Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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- 8:09Speaker 5: It's about Lee Paul Sweeney.
- 8:10Speaker 2: We're live here in our Bloomberg Getter Active Broker Studio,
- 8:12Speaker 2: streaming live on YouTube and Ween've been reporting all morning
- 8:15Speaker 2: on the McDonald's print. Here, I look at something called
- 8:18Speaker 2: which the analysts look at, something called like same store sales,
- 8:21Speaker 2: sales sales at stores you have owned for you know,
- 8:23Speaker 2: like like like a year or so. That takes out
- 8:25Speaker 2: the fluctuations of buying and selling and opening and closing stores.
- 8:28Speaker 5: So global sales at restaurants open at.
- 8:30Speaker 2: Least thirteen months rose three point eight percent in the
- 8:32Speaker 2: second quarter, according to the company. And that's kind of
- 8:35Speaker 2: one of the headlines there. Michael Halen, he looks at
- 8:37Speaker 2: that stuff. He's a senior restaurant analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 8:41Speaker 2: Michael talk to us about McDonald's. It seems like if
- 8:44Speaker 2: whenever I see this company give me some positive same
- 8:46Speaker 2: store sales, it feels like it feels like a win.
- 8:51Speaker 6: Yeah, it's definitely a win for you know, overall industry
- 8:56Speaker 6: same store sales. Because it's such a monster. It also
- 8:59Speaker 6: could be bad news for some of their competitors. With
- 9:02Speaker 6: fourteen thousand stores in the United States. Listen, man, they
- 9:05Speaker 6: know how to run run good restaurants right right now
- 9:10Speaker 6: in the US, they're starting to lap some easier comparisons,
- 9:14Speaker 6: and you know that's showing up in the you know,
- 9:18Speaker 6: that's helping their results. They're also you know, doing a
- 9:21Speaker 6: good job with you know the menu, right, they're bringing
- 9:24Speaker 6: back snack wraps, they're bringing back the mccrispy strip. They
- 9:29Speaker 6: just they debuted a daily double. They've been pressing on
- 9:32Speaker 6: value all year. That was a big thing since the
- 9:34Speaker 6: first quarter. And so you know, McDonald's has the scale
- 9:38Speaker 6: that they can you know, offer products a little bit
- 9:41Speaker 6: cheaper than their peers and still enfranchisees can still make
- 9:45Speaker 6: a little bit of money off of it. Right, So
- 9:48Speaker 6: you know, they they seem to really be hitting their
- 9:51Speaker 6: stride and they're lapping easy comps in the second half
- 9:53Speaker 6: of the year. So you know, we're looking at a
- 9:56Speaker 6: pretty good second half of McDonald's.
- 9:58Speaker 4: And international markets led to companies growth. What regions of
- 10:01Speaker 4: the world did they really push aggressively towards.
- 10:06Speaker 6: Yeah, they mentioned some really good strength in Germany. They
- 10:10Speaker 6: talked about some improvement in some markets that had been struggling,
- 10:14Speaker 6: like France and Australia, and so, you know, what they're
- 10:18Speaker 6: doing overseas is similar to the US playbook, right, but
- 10:22Speaker 6: they're probably ahead of the game, ahead of the US
- 10:26Speaker 6: in terms of providing everyday value their value messaging has
- 10:30Speaker 6: been on point, and it's really helped them grow internationally,
- 10:34Speaker 6: and that's why we've seen international grow faster than the US.
- 10:37Speaker 5: For the last year or so.
- 10:40Speaker 6: They also cited the fact that there's less competition overseas,
- 10:43Speaker 6: so they're really, you know, a pricing leader overseas. You know,
- 10:48Speaker 6: they can the same type of thing in the US
- 10:49Speaker 6: where they can offer price points that competitors just can't match.
- 10:53Speaker 6: And then they're also improving the operations, improving the quality
- 10:56Speaker 6: of the product, which has been an ongoing theme here,
- 11:00Speaker 6: proving the quality of the beef, better burgers, the way
- 11:03Speaker 6: they cook the burgers, their debuting the Big Arch, which
- 11:07Speaker 6: is a big, bigger sized burger in their lineup. They're
- 11:12Speaker 6: also expanding chicken overseas. So this company's humming along right now.
- 11:17Speaker 2: What does the company say, Like when I think about McDonald's,
- 11:19Speaker 2: I think a lot of folks probably feel like the
- 11:21Speaker 2: low end, low income consumers, probably it's bread and butter there,
- 11:25Speaker 2: and maybe that consumer is more at risk in this
- 11:28Speaker 2: economic environment. What's the company saying about some of those
- 11:30Speaker 2: low end, low income patrons.
- 11:35Speaker 6: Yeah, you know what I like about this call all
- 11:38Speaker 6: is that you know, they're talking about what they can control.
- 11:40Speaker 6: You know, they cited the fact that low income consumer
- 11:43Speaker 6: traffic is down double digits, right, versus a small gain
- 11:47Speaker 6: for middle income consumers and steady consistent gains with high
- 11:51Speaker 6: income consumers.
- 11:52Speaker 5: So they are.
- 11:53Speaker 6: Seeing, you know, weakness with low income consumers like everyone else.
- 11:57Speaker 6: That's why they push so hard on value. That's why
- 11:59Speaker 6: they have these you know, five dollars meals and buy one,
- 12:02Speaker 6: get one for a dollar, and why they put marketing
- 12:05Speaker 6: dollars behind that. That's part of the you know, the
- 12:08Speaker 6: beauty of the snack wraps. They're coming back at a
- 12:10Speaker 6: two ninety nine price point. We think that's going to
- 12:12Speaker 6: bring some low income consumers back into the fold, right,
- 12:16Speaker 6: So they understand that that people are very priced sensitive
- 12:19Speaker 6: right now, and you know, they're addressing it with the
- 12:23Speaker 6: price points. But they're also trying to give people better
- 12:26Speaker 6: quality and better service. At the same time.
- 12:29Speaker 4: They also plan to taste new beverages and this includes
- 12:32Speaker 4: cold coffees and crafted sodas at more than five hundred
- 12:35Speaker 4: US locations. How much of a pull are beverages when
- 12:39Speaker 4: it comes to McDonald's offerings or is food really still king?
- 12:43Speaker 5: Food? Is still king?
- 12:44Speaker 6: But listen, beverages are hot. Beverages are hot everywhere, right,
- 12:47Speaker 6: dirty slages, energy and very high margin, right. And so
- 12:53Speaker 6: we think this is a very good opportunity for McDonald's.
- 12:57Speaker 6: I think this is kind of a problem for Sonic,
- 13:01Speaker 6: which has long done a really good job with their
- 13:05Speaker 6: drink offering. But yeah, we think this is something that
- 13:09Speaker 6: can help drive sales at McDonald's.
- 13:13Speaker 5: Taco Bell.
- 13:13Speaker 6: This is something Taco Bell's expanding as well. But we
- 13:18Speaker 6: think this is going to be more of a twenty
- 13:19Speaker 6: twenty six story for McDonald's.
- 13:21Speaker 2: For McDonald's, Mike, what percentage of the revenue comes from
- 13:25Speaker 2: owned and operated stores versus franchise stores?
- 13:30Speaker 6: Oh, they're ninety eight percent franchised. So there. Yeah, they're
- 13:34Speaker 6: heavily franchised. And you know, it's a beautiful model, man.
- 13:38Speaker 6: There's not a lot of operating leverage in the model.
- 13:40Speaker 6: They generate a ton of cash that they return to shareholders.
- 13:44Speaker 6: It really is a bu what's thing?
- 13:46Speaker 5: So what's the royalty rate on?
- 13:48Speaker 2: There's a franchise e paid McDonald's based upon revenue, based
- 13:51Speaker 2: upon net income, based upon how many Big Max say sale.
- 13:54Speaker 5: How does that work? Yeah?
- 13:56Speaker 6: Yeah, yeah, McDonald's is a little bit unique. They have
- 13:58Speaker 6: a five ish percent royalty rate, plus they own a
- 14:02Speaker 6: lot of the real estate, So a lot of franchises
- 14:04Speaker 6: in the United States are paying a rent, which is
- 14:07Speaker 6: typically you know, a ten inch percent of sales, we'll say,
- 14:10Speaker 6: and then they'll pay another three and a half to
- 14:12Speaker 6: four percent into the ad fun.
- 14:15Speaker 2: I didn't know that until I saw the movie and
- 14:17Speaker 2: then that famous scene. Yeah, you're not in the hamburger.
- 14:20Speaker 5: Business, you're in the real estate business. And that was
- 14:23Speaker 5: such a great scene. I learned a lot there.
- 14:25Speaker 2: All Right, I can't let you go without crackerbrol and
- 14:27Speaker 2: I need my daily update, Country Boy Breakfast.
- 14:29Speaker 5: How's that company doing?
- 14:32Speaker 6: Listen, We're we're big fans of new CEO Julie Messino.
- 14:36Speaker 6: That stock's been a bit of a rollercoaster, not a
- 14:39Speaker 6: surprise since it's a small cap. It rows more than
- 14:42Speaker 6: one hundred percent off its April lows. Now it's in
- 14:45Speaker 6: the midst of a pretty aggressive downturn. It's probably lost
- 14:48Speaker 6: about a twenty five percent of its value in the
- 14:50Speaker 6: last couple weeks.
- 14:53Speaker 5: But you know, we like it.
- 14:55Speaker 6: We like Julie's plans to improve the operations, to spend
- 14:59Speaker 6: more and more efficient with their marketing spend. We think
- 15:03Speaker 6: this is a chain that had been you know, not
- 15:07Speaker 6: had been hadn't been taken care of, it hadn't been
- 15:10Speaker 6: run really well for the last decade, and so we
- 15:12Speaker 6: see a lot of low hanging fruit for the current
- 15:14Speaker 6: management team to turn things around and really drive strong
- 15:17Speaker 6: seam source sales through year end twenty twenty five and
- 15:21Speaker 6: well into twenty twenty six.
- 15:22Speaker 5: All right, Mike, thanks so much for joining us.
- 15:24Speaker 2: Michael Heylen, Senior restaurants food service Analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence.
- 15:29Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
- 15:32Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto
- 15:36Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you
- 15:39Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 15:42Speaker 2: Well here's another tech company that I totally missed. Had
- 15:45Speaker 2: no idea it even existed until it had already skyrocket.
- 15:48Speaker 5: It's super micro Computer. I don't know. They make some
- 15:51Speaker 5: hardware stuff for chips on. You know, it's a tech thing.
- 15:53Speaker 5: Got the AI bug, it ripped.
- 15:55Speaker 2: It's reported the company reported some numbers stocks down twenty
- 15:58Speaker 2: one percent, and I wonder if this is a time
- 16:00Speaker 2: for all the people that missed it to maybe take
- 16:01Speaker 2: a look. Here, I'll tell you who did not miss
- 16:04Speaker 2: it was Woojino Senior Technology, aannels for Bloomberg Intelligence. Wooge
- 16:08Speaker 2: just for our audience, just really quickly tell everybody what
- 16:11Speaker 2: super micro computer is and what happened with their quarter.
- 16:16Speaker 7: Sure, hey, thanks, Paul. Super Micro is a leading AI
- 16:20Speaker 7: server manufacturer. They've been one of the beneficiaries from.
- 16:23Speaker 1: This AI boom.
- 16:25Speaker 7: Companies like x ai Core we've used or purchased AI
- 16:31Speaker 7: servers from them. And what has happened from the AI
- 16:34Speaker 7: boom is that they've seen the revenues go from three
- 16:36Speaker 7: billion three to four years back and they're on track
- 16:40Speaker 7: for about thirty three billion in fiscal twenty six. So
- 16:44Speaker 7: in terms of the quarter there, it's a sloppy explanation
- 16:51Speaker 7: in terms of they missed the guidance for the results
- 16:55Speaker 7: and their outlook came in a little bit light. Even
- 16:58Speaker 7: though the thirty three billion dollars sales guidance for physical
- 17:01Speaker 7: twenty six was ahead of consensus by by about ten percent.
- 17:06Speaker 7: One of the things is is that they had a
- 17:08Speaker 7: forty billion dollar view back in February that they pulled
- 17:12Speaker 7: off the table last quarter because of the trade wars,
- 17:14Speaker 7: and that thirty three billion dollars fell short of that
- 17:17Speaker 7: forty billion dollar view back in February, so, you know,
- 17:21Speaker 7: missed heightened expectations heading into the print.
- 17:24Speaker 4: What about the lowered revenue outlook? Does that really signal
- 17:28Speaker 4: a deeper execution challenge and just really optimism when pessimism
- 17:32Speaker 4: when it comes to meeting AI server demand or is
- 17:35Speaker 4: it really more margin compression driven by price pressures?
- 17:39Speaker 7: Yeah, you know, that's that's a good question. Like in
- 17:43Speaker 7: terms of the thirty three billion dollars, if we think
- 17:45Speaker 7: of it one way, right, fifty percent revenue growth on
- 17:52Speaker 7: really tough comps is still fairly impressive, right, and they
- 17:55Speaker 7: still have to close a lot of big deals. The
- 17:59Speaker 7: issue is is that they they raise a bi bar
- 18:01Speaker 7: so high that you know, meeting that would have been very,
- 18:07Speaker 7: very impressive. And that's what I think growth the stock
- 18:09Speaker 7: run up. Now. The margin compression question is very interesting.
- 18:15Speaker 7: I will tell you Consentus has them add about seven
- 18:18Speaker 7: percent margins for fiscal twenty For fiscal twenty six. Heading
- 18:22Speaker 7: into the print, they're guiding too about five to six
- 18:26Speaker 7: percent margins. I don't know if they'll get to seven
- 18:31Speaker 7: percent for the year. I mean, they'll lead to scale
- 18:33Speaker 7: up more. But the competition, the creditive landscape is pretty
- 18:37Speaker 7: pretty fierce right now, and I have a tough time
- 18:40Speaker 7: getting to seven percent. And you know, EPs on lower
- 18:42Speaker 7: revenues and lower margins doesn't get me above three dollars
- 18:47Speaker 7: per share.
- 18:48Speaker 2: So Wiich talk to you mentioned competition here, who does
- 18:53Speaker 2: s SMCI Who do they really compete against here?
- 18:57Speaker 7: Dell? Right, that's a yeah, Dell has really been breathing
- 19:03Speaker 7: down super Micro's neck. If you think about the big
- 19:07Speaker 7: deals that Tesla and Xai and Core we've you know
- 19:14Speaker 7: that super Micro has been in. Dell has actually won
- 19:17Speaker 7: their fair share. Look, they're going to report in a
- 19:20Speaker 7: couple of quarters from now. They booked about fourteen billion
- 19:23Speaker 7: dollars in orders last quarter, seven billion of it that
- 19:27Speaker 7: should be closed in this upcoming quarter. So they're winning
- 19:31Speaker 7: monster deals at low margins. And then they're going to
- 19:34Speaker 7: continue to be competitive in these deals.
- 19:37Speaker 4: And given it to reliance on Nvidia chips, how exposed
- 19:40Speaker 4: to supermcro to bottlenecks or maybe just you know, prioritization
- 19:44Speaker 4: towards d video when it comes to their own chips.
- 19:46Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean well, super Micro doesn't make their own chips.
- 19:50Speaker 7: They are going to be reliant on end video chips.
- 19:53Speaker 7: There is a pecking order in terms of who get
- 19:55Speaker 7: those GPUs. The hyper scale guys are going to be
- 19:58Speaker 7: the first ones to get those gp use and for
- 20:02Speaker 7: large parts, super Micro and Deell do not have that
- 20:05Speaker 7: exposure to the hyperscale customers. So the second order of
- 20:08Speaker 7: magnitude are going to be the tier two neo clouds
- 20:12Speaker 7: like Xai, Open Ai and the core weaves of the world.
- 20:18Speaker 7: And you know, it's all about execution in those sales.
- 20:23Speaker 7: I don't think I don't think it's going to be
- 20:26Speaker 7: an allocation issue. But if you win those deals, Jensen
- 20:30Speaker 7: will have the GPU ready for you. So let's see.
- 20:34Speaker 7: And it all comes down to a pricing war at
- 20:36Speaker 7: the end of the day, which affects gross margins.
- 20:38Speaker 2: All right, Weich, thanks so much for joining us. Always
- 20:40Speaker 2: appreciate getting an update from you. Wujinhoe Senior Technology Channels
- 20:44Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence from our Princeton, New Jersey campus down there,
- 20:48Speaker 2: like a lot of bi folks down there, and which
- 20:50Speaker 2: is part of that global technology research team that we
- 20:53Speaker 2: have at Bloomberg Intelligence, and we cover this industry from
- 20:56Speaker 2: a global perspective, so anyway, we'll see how it goes.
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