Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For Iran Off-Ramp As His Popularity Sinks + Most Vulnerable Incumbents In 2026

Transcript

Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Is Desperate For Iran Off-Ramp As His Popularity Sinks + Most Vulnerable Incumbents In 2026 · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: by Incognate. You know, one of the things we talk
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: a lot about on this podcast is trust, who deserves
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: it and who doesn't. And lately I've been thinking about
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: how much of our personal information is just floating around online.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about phone numbers, home addresses, emails, even information
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: about your family, all sitting on websites you've probably never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: heard of. In the scary part, that information can be
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: used by scammers and identity thieves to piece together enough
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: details to impersonate you, target you, or worse. That's where
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: incognate comes in. Incognate works behind the scenes to track
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: down and remove your personal data from hundreds of websites,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: things like online directories, people search sites, and even commercial
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: databases that collect and sell your data without your consent.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: The process is automated, and because data can pop back
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: up again, incognit keeps monitoring and removing it for you.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: And one feature I really like its custom removals. If
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: you find something about yourself online that you want eliminated,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: it's a listing, an old record, or something you just
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: don't want publicly available, you can send incognit the link
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: and a dedicated privacy expert handles the removal for you.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: It's a great way to reduce your digital footprint and
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: protect yourself from scams and identity theft. Right now, you
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: can get sixty percent off an annual incognyplan. Just go
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: to incognit dot com slash Chuck podcast and use the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: code Chuck podcast. Use the code you get a discal again,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: that's in cogni dot com slash chucktodcast and use the
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: code Chuck podcast to get sixty percent off and start
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: taking control of your personal data today. Trust me, I'm
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: constantly working on this for years myself, and here's an
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: opportunity for you to take matters into your own hands
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: as well. Hello thereon, Welcome to the Wednesday episode of
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: the Chuck Podcast. So on Monday, I left you with
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a cliffhanger, right, I said I
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: had a new announcement coming and involved sports history, and
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: of course the minute it loaded, it turned out my
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: friends at Variety were dropping their story on Monday, not Tuesday,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: and I was not trying to hide it from anybody.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: I thought it was all hitting on Tuesday, so I
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: was trying to respect the embargoes that I'd done with
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: some coverage. But yes, I've teamed up with longtime sports
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: journalists Ja Donde. You may know Ja from his work
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: at the Washington Post or his work at the LA Times.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: That's where I first got to know him and read them.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: As a Dodger fan, I would consume anything Ja wrote
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: about the Dodgers, but would also follow his other work
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: as well, and then, of course, as part of the
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: hour long must see TV for the longest period of
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: time on ESPN when he had Around the Horn at
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: five pm Eastern and PTI at five thirty pm Eastern.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Around the Horn is no longer with us. Ja's been
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: He also is at the Medill's School and has been
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: doing that at Midill at Northwestern, teaching sports journalism for
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: I think it goes back to about twenty seventeen. So look,
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: we've teamed up to do recall it dynastic, and basically
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: what it is is every month Jay and I are
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: going to do a deep dive on a franchise, whether
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: it's a professional sports franchise or a college sports program
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: that is gone to another level. Right, there's sort of
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: there's that where they become iconic right, what makes a
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: team or a program go from simply successful to that
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: next level to become iconic? And we will make no bones.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: We are absolutely inspired by our friends over at Acquired
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: what they've done for the business world, long form storytelling
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: about how the great institutions in the business world were built.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: You know, they've done Google and JP Morgan Chase. They've
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: even dabbled and talked about the NFL and F one
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: Is businesses And honestly, we're you know, great ideas like
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: why not do this for sports? And we're applying the
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: same approach to sports franchises and programs. We want to
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: discuss the key people in the history of that franchise,
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: the decisions of turning points of forks on the road.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So our first episode dropped Tuesday. You may have gotten
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: it in the feed already, you may going, what the
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: hell is this? And our first franchise that we're doing
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: a deep dive is the Dodgers, the La Dodgers. It's
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: a franchise that has spent decades chasing the Yankees in
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: prestige in World Series Championships. Right, you know, in many
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: ways it was always that's the measuring stick. But along
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: the way in order to chase the Yankees, they ended
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: up becoming probably arguably the most innovative sports organization in
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: all of sports history, regardless of sport that you pick.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: In order to catch the Yankees, they had to be
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the innovators, and usually that's what happens, right. Necessity is
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: the mother of all invention, right. And of course the
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: story doesn't start there. The story begins in this little
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: borough before it even became a borough of New York City, Brooklyn,
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: New York. Eighteen eighty three is when the franchise was born.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Happened to be the same year that the Brooklyn Bridge opened,
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and within six or seven years Brooklyn itself would become
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: part of New York City. But that's sort of how
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: we're going to go through this, and Jay and I
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: are both get involved with the research, and it really
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: is sort of are we're making the argument. That's sort
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: of like we're making the case why this franchise X
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: is iconic. So every month we're going to take a
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: deep dive into an iconic franchise. So this month it's
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers. It'll be from teams you love, in teams
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: you hate, and everyone in between. The curious those that
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: you're curious about. So the Dodgers this month, we're going
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: to tackle the Pittsburgh Steelers in April. They will be
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: the franchise that hosts the NFL Draft, so we thought
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: that would the timing of that will be good. We're
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: going to do these every month. In between each episode
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: sort of again borrowing a you know, we're not trying
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: to reinvent the wheel here, borrowing a page from our
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: friends that acquired We'll also have a have an episode
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: with somebody who can sort of talk about the franchise
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: in more personal terms. Look, we're doing this independently. We
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: have no patron for any time we do this. So
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I think as much as we know there are plenty
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: of sports documentaries out there and episodic you know sort
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: of takes on you know, various individual players part of
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: a franchise, we are not taking our cues from anybody.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: We are simply doing it. Really, I look at it
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: through the eyes of a of a want to be
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: a historian, Right, I'm a history junkie, and I think
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: what I love about Jaa and our partnership is that
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: he you know, he's not he's as interested in the
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: off the field stuff as he is in the on
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: the field stuff just like I am. And in that sense,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: I think this is why this partnership is already working.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I'd like to think. So take a listen. It's a
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: couple takes more than it's more than two hours, right,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: you can't you know you're telling the story. It takes
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: more than a thirty minute episode. But we don't expect
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: you to listen to it in one listening. We know
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: that you know it may be that's why we're going
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: to do one of these a month and not try
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: to make you consume this here. But it's a lot
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: of fun. It's a labor of love for me, and
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: it's just been amazing to get to know Ja and
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: to work with him. Special shout out to the sort
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: of the godfather of this idea, the third partner in
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this my longtime friend and colleague Steve Hall as well.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So I hope you give it a chance. It's called Dynastics.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Subscribe today wherever you get to all your podcasts me on,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: iHeart already it's being syndicated there. And look, each episode
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: we come up with a we're both Jay and I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: have a mount rushmore of the four most iconic people
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: associated with that franchise Hard Stop. You know, I will
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: argue for more than you know, multiple amount rushmores that
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: we could come up with, but we decided to lean
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: into that gimmick. And we know it's a fun gimmick,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: and yes it's a gimmick, but it to just narrow
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: it down to four creates fun little debates. So we'd
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: love to hear from you. Don't be shy about giving
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: us your opinion on this. Trust me, in the world
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: of sports. The only place where people are more opinionated
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: in the world of sports is of course, in the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: world of politics. So I hope you'll check it out.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: I appreciate the patients in this feed that I've added
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: to it. As for this episode, we got a lot
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: of a lot of interesting nuggets on all things having
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: to do aroun. I have a little bit of a
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: campaign twenty twenty six update, including a fascinating new top
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: five list, a unique take on my top five this week,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: which is top five most likely state wide incumbents to
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: lose to not return to office, so slightly different it
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: would be either gov or sitting governors or sitting senators,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: but the five most vulnerable of those. I thought it
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: would be a different way to slice that idea. Going forward,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: We'll take some questions, but obviously, in the world of politics,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: it is still we are still living in one story
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that is going to continue and will continue to dominate,
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: and that is all things Iran. It is as as
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: has been foreshadowed on this podcast, and I've said in
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: other places, Donald Trump was not going to have a
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: lot of patience and he was going to look for
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: an exit ramp. And he is certainly trying to talk
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: talk his way into getting out of this war that
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: he got himself into. And it's clear he is struggling
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: with the political pain is causing because remember, as I
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: reminded you on Monday, the people feeling the immediate tax
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: hike from this war, and in this case, the tax
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: height is the rise in gas prices. It is more
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: folks who supported him, right, this is this gap. When
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: gas prices go up, it is folks in rural and
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: exurban America who are hit hardest. Well, that is geographically
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: the heart of the Trump political base. So this is
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: having a huge impact on his side politically, which is
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: why he knows and is so desperate to find his
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: way out, But what does victory actually look like. It's
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: a question that Donald Trump is trying to He's like,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: if we can they pledged never to have a nuclear bomb,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: which they had actually pledged to do before, or if
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: they get we destroyed their navy, he's saying, and we're
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: able to get them from doing a state sponsor of terrorism.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: But and he's trying to say, and there's gonna be
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: new people in the regime, so it's kind of like
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: regime change. Yeah, but it's not regime change, right, And
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: that's the problem. He's trying to spitball how he would
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: sell victory in this, But this is the problem he's in,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: is that there is no easy way out of here,
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: and there's not a good answer because there might not.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: There's no victory he can declare in the next four
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: to six weeks. And at this point they kind of
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: know it. And it looks like he is desperate to
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: get out of this energy crisis that he's helped create.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: So we've arrived at one of those moments in American
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: form policy where every path forward carries risks. And this
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: is I've said up before, he boxed himself in. He
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: boxed the country in You know, no matter your political persuasions,
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: your political feelings about Donald Trump, America's prestige is on
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: the line here and that's a huge problem. So what
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: are the options that are facing it. It's clear that militarily,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: he's being given the option to escalate. Right, we continue
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: to send more troops who look like they would be
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: the first troops on the boots on the ground for
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: some sort of ground incursion. Maybe it's just simply to
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: keep this straight of horn moves open. But the type
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: of resources we're sending over there now is in case
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: the President makes the decision and gives the green light
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: to putting actual American troops on the ground in Iran.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: But of course that's an escalation. And if you do that,
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: that risks a wider regional war and more energy shocks
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: and a long term commitment with no clear endgame. If
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: you're doing what he's doing now, he's trying to hurry
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: up and de escalate, okay, but he risks something that's
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: potentially just as dangerous, handing Iran a strategic victory without
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: ever formally admitting it. Right, the Jemes survived who won this?
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: For Yes, we've absolutely eviscerated their military, and we've certainly
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: degraded their ability to cause problems for the United States.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: What about for the region itself? And any circumstance that
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: he's negotiating at the moment continues to keep. And this
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: is where geography is Iran's best weapon. Here they're going
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: to have a large say over who gets to travel
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: through the Straight of Hormones. So former Defense Secretary Jim Mattis,
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: who was the Defense secretary for Donald Trump in his
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: first term, and he's no Iran dove, trust me on this,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: but he put it as bluntly as anyone has. Earlier
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: this week, he said, the United States declares victory and
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: steps back. Now, Iran will effectively claim control of the
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: Strait of Horn moves. And we know what that means.
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: It means that any moment in time they can essentially
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: create an energy problem for the United States and the world,
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: but it's a political problem for the US and is
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: you know, he had his own warning here was even
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: more vivid because he expects that under any scenario, they're
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: going to start to charge basically charging attacks on global
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: shipping to go through the Strait of ormentors because if
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: you were then, you know, Israel wants regime change. How
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: do you know that they've set it? Prime Minister that
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: now who's said it? So they're not going to feel secure.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Is the United States is going to guarantee that the
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: US would somehow prevent Israel from attacking them? Again? Are
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: we going to do that? Is Israel going to sign
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: off on that? I'm skeptical. So here we are, we're
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: going to be in a situation where the Iranians will
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: control the strait, this regime will control the straight. I mean,
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: still roughly twenty percent of the world's oil passes through
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: this narrow passage, and that continues to give the Arminians
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: leverage over the global economy. So it's hard to imagine that.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: First of all, they didn't have this much. You know,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: they arguably always kind of had this leverage if they
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: chose to use it, but there was an uneasy piece
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: that was there. But now by engaging in this, they
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: know and what is their incentive not to continue to
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: cause disruptions because they know their days are numbered if
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: they just sort of stand pat So it's hard to
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: it's hard to see how we get an uneasy cease
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: fire here that somehow is attainable in sticks. I hope
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: I'm wrong. I don't think any of us want to
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: see a war that escalates where we have American young
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: American men and women coming home in body bags fighting
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: a war of choice. Yes, aron's a menace, but it
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: would be a war of choice. Is this the time
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to have this war? I think we know what the
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: answer to that is, and certainly President Trump has created
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: a situation with our allies that makes it where we're
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: going in alone on this. I'm going to get to
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: more on that in a minute. But Mattis is warning
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: becomes something bigger than just a military assessment, because militarily,
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: you know, it's both the military has had massive strategic
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: victory here and at the same time, there's only so
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: much the military can do. Mattis said one other thing
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: in his interview. He said, you know, we're in a
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: tough spot. Now. This goes back to being boxed in.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: I can't identify a lot of options. This is coming
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: from Jem Mattis. This isn't coming from some left wing blogger, okay,
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: because that's the reality. There's no clear path forward here,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: and it's clear they didn't think this through at the
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: White House. They really believed, or the President believed that
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: this was going to be just like Venezuelan and that
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: the incentive to survive would somehow. You know, he doesn't
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: seem to acknowledge that this regime has kept power for
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: forty seven years, which means there's a lot of people
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: that are devoted to this regime and they're not going
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: to go away quietly because their livelihood depends on the
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: regime staying in power. You would think Donald Trump would
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: understand when you have kind of that kind of loyalty, right,
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: It's the type of loyalty he tries. He wants people
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: loyal to him, not because they like him, loyal to
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: him because they need them. Well, that's the type of
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: loyalty this regime is created. They're not going easily. This
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you by Soul.
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: So if you love that end of the day unwined
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: but hate the hangover, Soul's out of Office is for you.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: These sparkling THCHC drinks and gummies give you the same
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: relaxed social feeling without the alcohol, without the calories, and
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: without the crash. Soul is a wellness brand that believes
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul specializes in
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: delicious hemp derived THCHC, and CBD products designed to boost
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: your mood and help you unwind. Their best selling out
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: of office gummies were designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: boost your mood and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: different strengths, you can tailor the dose to fit your vibe.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: So also has a variety of products specifically designed to
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: help you get a better night's rest, including their top
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: selling Sleepy Gummies, a fan favorite for deep, restorous sleep. Look,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: I have made no secret. I am a believer in
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: this stuff, in cannabis and hemp derived. I do not
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: partake an alcohol. For the most part, I think this
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: stuff is a lot safer than alcohol, a lot less
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: addictive than alcohol. And yes, I have to say I
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: love these drinks. It is the glass of wine and
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: you know after work, that's what this is. So no
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: hangover and no excess calories like this. I'm a big fan.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: So bring on the good vibes and treat yourself to
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Sold today, right now, Soul is offering my audience thirty
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: percent off your entire order. Go to getsoul dot com
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: and use the word toodcast. That's getsold dot com promo
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: code podcast for thirty percent off. And yes, I too,
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: am a customer. And there's another reality that's hard to ignore.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: Airpower alan doesn't change regimes. History continues to show this
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: again and again. So even after weeks of strikes, even
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: after the damage to all these Iranian military targets, we're
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: still left in a position where we've demonstrated force and
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: we haven't secured the outcome, and are how are more
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you know, more rats sort of fall on deaf ears
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: to those that have survived, just surviving, what more is
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: there for us to destroy? And again this is asymmetric.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: Just the regime surviving is victory for them. So we're stuck.
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: Neither side can force the other to change course, neither
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: side can claim a decisive when, And the longer that continues,
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: the more this becomes about perception and who looks like
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: they held firm and who looks like they blinked, And
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: let's just say Donald Trump is blinking lot. So this
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: isn't just about Iran. This has got second order effects
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: already in motion among the Iranian diaspora menary who hope
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: this would be a turning point. Now that hope fades
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: right among the Gulf States, the question becomes is the
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: United States still the security partner of choice? And if
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: the answer becomes even slightly uncertain, they don't walk away,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: but they're going to hedge. That's where China comes in.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: There'll be regional arrangements, There'll be a lot of self preservation.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Because alliances don't break overnight. They hollow out. And this
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: is yet another uncomfortable part of this. We didn't just
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: stumble into this moment. Donald Trump helped create this moment.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: Sometimes the hardest thing is to say in politics are
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: the most obvious ones that because they're complicated, but because
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: they're so basic, you assume one doesn't need to even
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: say it. It doesn't need to be said. But if you
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: hollow out expertise, you get worse decisions. If you surround
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: yourself with people who agree with you, you make more mistakes,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and if you alienate your allies, you end up alone
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: when it matters. This is an advanced political science. This
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: is organizational leadership one oh one. Yet here we are right.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: How did he hollow out the expertise, He gutted the
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: National Security Council, He surrounded himself with a bunch of secofans.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: Right there is no gym Matis at the Defense at
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the Pentagon right now offering, say e questionable advice. There's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: Pete Hags who, let's just say, couldn't carry Jymnatis's jockstrap.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: So you've got a Secretary state in theory that I
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: think is sort of reality based. But his political future
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: hinges on whether Donald Trump thinks he's the heir apparent.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: So we know what kind of limited pushback. And notice
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: when you get all of the the fact that JD.
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: Vans and Telsea Gabbert have both used the same spin
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: while the President came to this conclusion, and Marco Ruby,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: while the President decided there was an imminent threat, and
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: the President decided right by the way talk about CYA.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: None of them want to own this. They're making it
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: clear this is a Donald Trump decision all the way through.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: They somehow think that they don't have it, that this
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: is just sustain and not a tattoo. But we shall see.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: So here we are. He has spent the last year here.
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: In a couple of months berating our allies, using tariffs
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: to bludgeon our allies, and ad tacks, creating all sorts
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: of uncomfortable alliances, making NATO, you know, threat with the
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: threat on Greenland, shaking the confidence of our NATO allies.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: So that's how we spent twenty twenty five as a nation.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: And then he's boxed himself in and on this Iaran decision.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: Could use some allies to help us out with the
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: straight of Oar moves, and they're all like, hey, good luck, brother,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: you're on your own now. You can sit here and complain.
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: Where are our allies? Well, you alienated them. You made
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: it a lot harder for them to stick by us,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: because sticking by the United States is suddenly politically unpopular
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: in places like the UK, Germany, France and Italy let
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: me repeat myself, or Japan. Can you believe that standing
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: on the side of the United States is unpopular in
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: those countries? That's a problem. Ironically, Donald Trump had in
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: theory diverse voices in the room. He had a national
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: security team that looked like it did represent a range
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: of perspectives, from a dove like Tulsea Gabbert to a
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: hawk like Marco Rubio. But here's the difference between theory
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: and practice. No one appeared willing or able to tell
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: the President something he didn't want to hear. General Kine
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: came the closest, but he even did that through proxies,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: right through interviews with the Wall Street Journal, Washington Post,
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: New York Times. And that distinction matters a lot here
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: because dissent isn't about having different resumes in the room.
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: It's about whether anyone feels empowered to challenge the decision
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: that's already been made. And if they don't, then what
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: you have is in a debate, it's a performance. And
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: we spent all this time beating up our testing all
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: of our alliances. We treated them as transactional people, even
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: publicly lecturing them. The Vice President lectured Europe about the
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: their internal values. When I thought the whole point was
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: real politique. You do you, we do we? And it
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: raised a simple question, if you knew you might be
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: heading into a conflict that could disrupt global energy markets,
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: would you spend the previous year making it politically harder
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: for your allies to stand with you, or would you
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: be strengthening those relationships. Because what we're seeing right now
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: isn't a collapse of alliances. It's something more subtle. It's hesitation,
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: it's hedging. It's a quieter kind of distance. They're not
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: saying they won't help, but like, wrap up this war
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: and then we'll see what we can do. And then
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: this is where it all connects. When you narrow the
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: circle of advice, when you prioritize loyalty over challenge, when
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: you weaken alliances, you don't just change the environment around
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a decision, you actually change the decision itself. The risks
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: look smaller they weren't. The timeline looks shorter, it wasn't.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: The outcome feels more manageable. Well, this hain't been as well. Now.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: It's interesting here is that polling is showing this war
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: is unpopular, Okay, not surprising, and that's a huge issue
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: for him, and I think he's very aware. I mean,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: that's the problem here, right. He knee jerked his way
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: into this, and now he's going to knee jerk his
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: way out of this. And it ain't going to be
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: that clean. I know he thinks it could be, and
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: he has you know, rolled the dice before on Middle
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: East decisions, and he's not and it hasn't hurt him
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: yet until now, and I think he still thinks in
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: his head that if they can somehow wrap this up,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: he can declare some sort of victory and somehow the
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: markets will write themselves sooner rather than later. There's no
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: doubt this global economy and the American economy has been resilient.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: But at some point it ain't going to be this resilient,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: and more importantly, everybody's going to start hedging all over
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: the place. What's been interesting is what we're watching among
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: independence in the polling. They don't like Democrats, they don't
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: like Republicans, but they particularly don't like Donald Trump and Mega.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: So that is why independents look like they're supporting Democrats,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: because what they're voting against is Trump and MAGA is Trump.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: Trump is Mega support among independences that sit in the
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: low twenties. That is a huge problem here. Wherever independence
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: go in Chunk is usually when that party wins. Something
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: else that's popped up in the polls that I kind
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: of want people to pay attention to. Marquette is out,
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: and what's interesting is that they did fave on favor
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: ratings for Democratic Party, Republican Party and then MEGA believe
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: it or not, the Republican Party are the best ratings
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: of those three entities. Democratic Party they had the lowest
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: rating of those three entities. But MAGA was looked closer
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: to being as unpopular as the Democrats were, and certainly
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: more unpopular than Republicans. And now there's always been a
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: distinction between those that call themselves Republicans and those that
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: call themselves MAGA, and of course anything MAGA is always
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: more loyal to the President on everything like this. Around war,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: we've seen some polling showed like ninety nine percent support
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: among MEGA voters, but among those that consider themselves more
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: Republican than MEGA, it's been like fifty five to forty.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: You know, it's not been a clean break, you see.
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: And I know, I know MEGA influencers are more anti
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: war than the rank and file of MEGA, right, but
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: it tells you how bad the MEGA brand has become.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: Where the Republican brand is in better shape with voters
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: than the MAGA brand. If you're a Republican on the ballot,
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: you should be relieved that this is true. I think
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: the great fear among some Republicans is that Trump and
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: MAGA was going to drag. The republic can brand with it.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: If you've got voters willing to distinguish between the two,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: this should be the time to go rush and grab it.
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: Except guess what this Republican Party and Jerryman. It's made
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: primaries so important that Republicans can't distance themselves fast enough
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: from Trump because if they do, they won't win primaries.
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: This is the trap that John cornyns, right, So it's
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: a it's it's it's interesting here none of this is
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: yet benefiting the Democrats brand, even as it benefits them
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: in binary choices when you do those head to head tests.
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: But the fact that this is really and in some
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: ways you know, this Iran war could be the death
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: knell for the MEGA brand, right because even though the
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: influencers want the MAGA brand to be something else, as
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump has always said, Mega is whatever he says
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: it is. And it turns out the voters are look
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: at MAGA through the prism of Trump, and maga's numbers
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: are as bad as Trump's numbers. But the fact that
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party's numbers are actually slightly better than MAGA
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: and Trump in theories an opportunity for the Republican Party
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: to find its way away out of the wilderness, away
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: from Trump, if they so choose. What that really tells
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: you is that independent voters, because that's where these numbers
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: are coming from. Independence, have a better view of Republicans
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: in general, the Republican Party when it's not associated with
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. I'll be curious to see what that means
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight and does the unpopularity of Trump's
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: on pot you know, if this isn't recoverable, and there
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: are always points and second terms where once it's gone,
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: it's gone. He's bounced back a few other times, there's
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: going to be a point he stops bouncing back. This
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: might be the time he stops bound back, which means
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: there's an opening. And what's interesting, there's one there's one
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: person I'm keeping an eye on, closest when it comes
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: to somebody who would run as a sort of a
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: non maga but maybe mega call it, you know, not
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: anti this, and it's Brian Kemp in Georgia. And guess
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: what state is the only state so far to do
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: a gas tax holiday. Brian camp in Georgia. Feels like
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: an easy way for Brian Kemp presidential candidate to distinguish
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: himself from a JD. Vance or Marco Rubio in the primary.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: So not lost on me that Camp you know, already
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: has that feather in his twenty twenty eight cap should
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: he need it, and you're starting to see polling conformed
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: to that. Look, this is just early days of this,
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: but I think this is going to be worth keeping
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: tracking a which is, how can does the Republican brand
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: start improving in the mind of some independent voters simply
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: because Trump and MAGA have become so dominant, and what
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Republican office holders find a way? Hear that? All right?
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: With that, I had a few more political items I
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: want to get to. I think I'm gonna punt. We're
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: going to do that. We'll do that with tomorrow's episode,
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: including this bizarre sort of Chuck Schumer sort of attempt
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: to sort of quell the There is clearly a growing
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: band of senator Democratic senators that want Schimmer to go.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: He did a crazy interview with the Wall Street Journal
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: where I think he sort of exposed himself as either
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: being a bit out of touch or not fully on
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: top of what is happening here, and at the same
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: same time, you know, one can understand what he's tried
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: to do, and so if Chuck Schumer doesn't want progress
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: to look like Progressives have defeated him, he may want
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: to go out on his terms rather than test the
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: premise whether he could survive a vote himself come December,
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: should Democrats end up with the majority of the Senate.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna get more than that tomorrow. Will do
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: a little bit more on the democratic side of things.
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: But considering where we are at the run, it is,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: as I've said before, there is only one story impacting
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: American politics until until it is no longer front and center,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: it's going to be hard to focus on anything else.
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, artisanal pastries, and
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: nutrients antioxidants There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: and a new protein box. I will tell you I
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: have done the gluten free box. I have done it
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: a second time. I have also used the code, the
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: todcast code. If you use the promo code podcast at
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: check out, you get thirty dollars off. I've already used
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: it as a gift to somebody else who loves this bread.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: It is hard to find good gluten free bread. It
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: is fantastic. They give you step by step instructions. I
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: really dig this. There is nothing like having an artesian
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: bakery in your freezer to chase away the winter chill.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: Now is the best time to stay in and enjoy
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: some comforting homemade meals with Wild Grain. I obviously highly
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: recommend it. It is worth giving Wild Grain to try.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Right now. Wildgrain is offering my listeners thirty dollars off
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: your first box plus free croissants for life. Come on
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: when you go to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: start your subscription today. That's thirty dollars off your first
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: box and free Croissants for life when you visit wildgrain
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: dot com, slash podcast, or simply use the promo code
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: podcast at checkout. This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: so use that code. Top five top top jest top
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: all right, this week I got a unique take on
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: the top five list. I've been giving you my top
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: five most you send it, seats most likely to flip,
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: your top five governor seats most likely to flip. I've
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: done some historical top five lists, and I'm going to
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: keep that going. But I thought i'd do a slightly
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: different take on on something, because which is the top
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: five right now? My top five most vulnerable state wide
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: incumbents Because in some cases, you know, like the case
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: in Louisiana or Rhode Island, where there's a state wide
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: incumbent who's going to lose, but they're the same party
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: is going to end up with the seats, so they
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: don't doesn't make my top five most likely to flip, right,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: whether it's in the senate races with Louisiana or the
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: governor's races with Rhode Island. So that's why I thought
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: we do a little bit of a take on that,
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: and I wanted to give you right now, who I
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: think are the five most vulnerable state wide office holders
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: who are more at this point, four of the five
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: are more likely to lose than win given the situation
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: that they're currently in literally for them underwater. One arguably
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: has still got a slight advantage here and it is
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: in my fifth slot. So number one on the list
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: of most vulnerable incumbent is John Cornet, right, He's already
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: been forced into a run on off. We will find
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: out after Memorial Day whether that'll happen. A new pole
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: came out a couple of days ago showed him down eight.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: He's sort of the forty one percent, you know, he
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: basically the number he got in the primaries, the number
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: he's sitting on the runoff. Paxston looks like he's got
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the you know, the more likely. You know, this runoff
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: is going to probably be lower turnout, and that is
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: likely to advantage Paxton on this front. Trump is clearly
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: not decided whether to endorse. I think in some ways
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: he was probably he doesn't like being smoked out and
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: the corn and people were trying corning in Thune. We're
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: trying so hard to corner him into an endorsement within
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that first forty eight hours after the Texas primary, and
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: when it didn't happen, then they knew others were going
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: to get to him. And that's exactly what's happened. Others
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: have gotten to Trump. So I think we're at the
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: point now where I don't know if he gets if
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: he gets comfortable endorsing, I just don't buy it. Not
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: if poles continue to show corn And losing, and he
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: does not like tobacco loser. You know he does not.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: He will back somebody trailing in the polls if it's
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: early in a primary and he thinks and he knows
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: that it will flip. He doesn't like doing it late
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: because he does it want to. He hates being with
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: the losing candidate. And if he can't be convinced that
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Corny could win, I don't think that solo endorsement is coming.
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: So Cornn's in the one slot. In the number two
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: slot is somebody that I haven't been mentioning. But it's
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: like not even a close call. Dan McKee, who's the
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: current governor of Rhode Island. He ended up replacing Gina
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Romundo and as governor back in twenty twenty two. He
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: has just been in a hole for it feels like months.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's got a job approval rating that at
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: times has been in the twenties. There was a primary
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: University of New Hampshire poll that had him at eighteen percent.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: He's likely his main rival is actually the niece of
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: Chris Dodd for those of you keeping score at home,
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: Helena Folks. He's a former executive from CVS the pharmacy,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: which is headquartered in Rhode Island, so they have that
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: is that is not a net negative being a former
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: CVS executive. Being a former CVS executive is mostly a
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: net positive there. And look there's the you know Rhode Island,
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: it's a very strong democratic state in general, so the
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: primary is where all the action is. And you see
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: these labor and business divides, like all the normal divides
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: you normally see in a general election in Rhode Island
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: always takes place in the primary, kind of like what
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: we saw in Illinois, right where interest groups know that
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: there's only what it's a one party state, so you
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: start to see that, Well, Dan McKee is just it.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: I you know, it's unusual for a governor to lose primary,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: but it happens. It is happened. Frank Murkowski, Lisa Murkowski's father,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: basically over appointing his daughter of the Senate seat, among
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: other things, lost to primary back in twenty Back in
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: twenty oh six, this woman named Sarah Palin ended up
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: primary in him and she became She became governor and
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I think kind of made a name for herself there
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: for a few years. But this is why I wanted
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: to do this top five lists. I haven't been able
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: to get this on the table. So Dan McKee number two.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: It is hard to see a path. You could make
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: an argument that McKee should be in the one slot
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: most likely to lose, Cornyn in the two. The only
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: reason I'm putting corn in first is he's already been
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: through round one of a primary and now the runoff.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: I mean it is sitting out there in theory mcke's
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: that primary is not un till September, and so he's
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: in theory got five more months to fix himself. So
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: just because he's got more time, he's number two. Corning's
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: number one. In my third slot is Bill Cassidy, another
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: one who's more likely to lose in a primary than
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: in general. He appears slightly more competitive in a multi
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: candidate primary as Julia Letlow, who is basically the unofficial
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: official endorsed challenger of Cassidy in some form. Right, these
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: are the getting let Low in. This is where Trump
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: wants to be. It's likely who he's gonna end up supporting.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: We'll see how heavily he comes in. But there are
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: multiple candidates in the race, and the more crowded this
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: primary is, in theory, the better for Cassidy. But it
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: would end up in a runoff as well. I mean,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: they remember the state of Louisiana changed its rules basically
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: just so that Bill Cassidy could be primary because of
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: his impeachment vote pure and simple, right, Louisiana used to
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: be a jungle primary state, all parties on one ballot.
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: If nobody gets fifty, top two face off. Well, the
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: fear this would have been Cassidy's opportunity, he would have.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Cassidy would be winning reelection under the ole the rules
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: of Louisiana's election system that they had the first time
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: he ran. I promise you there is, and he would
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: probably be running a different race. Now maybe there isn't
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: you know, Maybe he's somehow done. He has figured out
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: how to alienate the left over with his playing footsie
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: with RFK Junior and the right by it voting to
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: convict Donald Trump. And maybe there's no coming back from that,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: and because of that squeeze, there really isn't There isn't
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: you know, he's so alienated both that nobody wants to
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: see him succeed either way. He's easily number three on
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: the list, but he he's not dead yet. And I
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: just think that that is you know, I it is
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: you know, I keep waiting. You know, I just don't
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: know if he ends up benefiting when Bobby Kennedy messes up,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: because at the end of the day, even though he's
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: been a critic now of what Kennedy's doing, he's still
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: the guy that got Kennedy into that job. And we
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: kind of and I think we all know why he
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: did it. He thought this is if he thought, this
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: is what it would take to get Trump's endorsement. And
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: we know what the Trump White House did, well, they said, well,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: certainly it will help. He was never going to he
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: was never going to flip. He was never going to
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: do it. That's something I don't know why Cassidy misread
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: that situation Number four on the list, Susan Collins. She
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: trails both Mills and Platner and polling and I've seen
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: she is now benefiting that Mills and Platner are going
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: after each other. Mills is up with another attack ad
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: on Platner. And we're going to find out, right, how
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: much do voters in Maine care about this stuff? You know,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: how powerful is the Donald Trump effect on Democratic primary voters?
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: We already know that Republican primary voters that the you know,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: the personal character issues just are not what they used
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: to be, not at all. Right, Donald Trump is is
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: sort of you know, is sort of almost like pardoned
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: anybody running for office on the Republican side on character.
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: And there's clear a lot of Democrats think, hey, they
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: they shouldn't be as picky either. I think this is generational.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: I think those that have grown up mostly living online
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: know that a lot of dumb stuff gets said. So
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to be a younger voter is
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: going to be more forgiving for what Platner did, and
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: an older voter is going to be less forgiving. Right,
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: And in Maine, Maine is the oldest state, oldest electorate
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: in the country, the single oldest electorate in the country.
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: So I do think we underrate Mills's chance to get
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: to win this primary this way and death by a
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: thousand cuts then I think, you know, I know, the
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: energy feels like it's with Platner. What don't underestimate sort
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: of the main electorate, which is again not a young electorate.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Just something to think about there. As for Susan Collins,
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I think she's you know, I think she's in. I
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: don't see a way out of this for her because
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: independence have turned on her and I don't know if
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: there's going to be any moment where she can show
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: her independence again. And if anything, it's you know, she's
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: had those opportunities and she's chosen partisanship over independence. Right.
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: If you think about Lisa Murkowski's is and Collins, who
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: both essentially have a similar electorate, you know, cranky independence,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: that's the Alaska that's the Alaska voter arguably, and that's
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: the main voter. Collins tries to always find herself on
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: the side of Republicans. Murkowski always seems more likely to
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: find her side herself on the side of not being
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: there with the Republicans. Being more independent or sometimes voting
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: against them. And I think Murkowski's displayed independence more credibly
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: than Collins has. And that's why I think this time
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: it's hard. So when I say the first four on
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: my list are all underwater, all trailing at the moment,
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Corny and McKay, Cassidy, Collins, that is true. Number five
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: on the list is somebody who's not trailing. And I
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: have to say, here are the people I had to
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: choose from who I think are all vulnerable incumbents at
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: the moment. You have the governor of Nevada, Joe Lombardo,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: being a Republican and a dem leaning state. You know,
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: he knocked off a one term incumbent. He's going to
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: be facing a wealth on the challenger. Nevada is as
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: swinging of a state as there is. I think he's
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: holding up as well as you could under the circumstances,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: but he is the wind is decidedly blowing against him.
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: And the Governor Arizona in this case, I think she's
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: got the wind at her back a little bit Katie Hobbs,
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: but and she you know, if Andy Biggs is the nominee,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: I think she's in better shape than if Schwikert, David
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: Schwikert is the nominee there, so there, that's a nominee
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: for the fifth slot. See Katie Hobbs, Joe Lombardo, Dan
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: Sulivon Alaska, John Ossoff and Georgia and Pete Ricketts. And
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: I have to tell you right now, at the moment,
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: I think that the incumbent and that right now is
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: in the toughest shape. Who has who has the most
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: well formed challenger is Pete Ricketts in Nebraska. Look, he's
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: still favorite, It's still Nebraska. But man, it is fascinating
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: to watch how well how resilient Osborne is. He's already
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: taken a bunch of incoming claiming he's a Democrat in
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: independent clothing, and it hasn't really budged his numbers. So,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: you know, while I'm still you know, let's see he
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: can get to fifty. I think the path to forty
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: seven is pretty clear for him, somewhere between forty five
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: and forty seven. But can he get to fifty? But
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: right now, right now, I think Ricketts more so than Slomon,
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: more so than John Houston in Ohio, another candidate for
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: my incumbent list here, And you could make a strong case,
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: although I'd argue John Houston's an appointed so he doesn't
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: count as a real incumbent in that front. So my
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: fifth slote a little bit of a Husker surprise, just
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: like they've been to me. I know they're a four seed,
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: but I still think of Nebraska basketball as a bit
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: of a dark horse here, which translation means I'm probably
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: betting on Iowa. But there you go. There's the top
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: five most vulnerable statewide incumbents in the country. John Cornett,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Dan McKee, Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, and Pete Rippons. We'll
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: update the list again next month. Ass chuck. All right,
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: let's do a little last chuck. Cue the music. Hey,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: this has been from Colorado. I saw recently that John
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Hickenlooper dropped out of the caucus assembly process because he
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: was not getting the support that he needed to show
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: up on the primary ballot. I also saw some pulling
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: that he is trailing fairly significant the primary right now
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: to his challenger, Julie Gonzalez. If he loses, he would
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: be the third single term Senator in a row in
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: the last two Senate seat from Colorado. How about that,
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: I guess You're right that has been the case. Have
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: there been other cases where this has happened in the Senate? Thanks? Ben? Actually, yes, Ben,
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: here's your answer, because it is the So I guess
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: it would say I love that you identified it as
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: Class two. This would be the Class three seat in
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. Okay, So let me give you this this
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: run of one term senators. So you had Robert Morgan
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: elected in seventy four, lost reelection in eighty John East
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: elected in eighty he ends up dying, it's vacant. There's
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: an appointment Jim Broyhill. Then you have in eighty six
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: Terry Sandford is a Democrat, is elected, He's a one termer.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Locke Faircloth is elected in ninety two, defeats him, defeats
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Terry Stanford, he's a one termer. He loses to John Edwards.
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: John Edwards decides not to see reelection. And then that's
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: when Richard Berwin's that seat in two thousand and four.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: And that was two terms. So here we you have
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Edward's one term, Faircloth one term, Sanford one term. So
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: there's your three in a row. Really, you could argue
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: four in a row because East got one term Morgan
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: five in a row, so basically after sam Irvin, right,
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: sam Irvin resigns early in his seat. After sam Irvin,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: the most famous you know, and you know doing the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: Watergate hearings, that North Carolina Class three seat had five
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: straight one term senators. Some of them lost reelections, some
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: of them chose not to run, one died, So you
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: had a death presidential candidacy and incumbents losing twice. What
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: a fun question. But like I said, I'm sure there
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: are more than that. But if I found a five
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: spot for you, I think and look, you know, for
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: folks may not realize, Colorado has got an interesting little
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: system you can if you go through the cock you
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: can go through the essentially the state convention process, and
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into the details here, where
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: you can qualify for a primary for the primary ballot
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: without having to do petition signatures. You can just get
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: it and you can try to get the endorsement. But
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: the obviously, the party apparatus these days are dominated by
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: the by the base voters, right base progressives with Democrats
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: based mago for Republicans. So if you're sort of a
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: center left or a center right politician, You're not going
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: to be able to win an endorsement from your state
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: conventions these days, no matter where you are, particularly in
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: a place like Colorado. So I understand why he's going
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: to try to go in primary his way. Here, my
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: guess is, once he starts spending money, he's going to
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: be quote unquote okay, especially because you'll you should expect
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: to see a very large primary turnout. There's an open
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: seat for Governor Michael Bennett, the other senator from the
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: state is the sitting Attorney general or running against each
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: other in the primary, So there should be a large turnout,
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: and I imagine Hickenloopers should be okay in a large turnout.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know what the fireable offense is, and if
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: the fireable offense is he's not progressive enough. I don't
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: know if there's enough enough voters to knock him off.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: But we shall see, you know, he certainly. I've said
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: this before. I think being an incumbent on the ballot
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: that's vulnerable this year hard stop. Obviously, some vulnerabilities are
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: greater than others, but I would keep that in mind.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Next question, Matt Minneapolis, Hey, as a horse race election guy,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: elections guy, I've really been enjoying the primary night live streams. Nice.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: Please keep them coming. We will. Next one is going
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: to be for the Virginia special referendum, by the way,
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: in on April twenty first. Then we'll do all the
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: May primaries. May. He's going to be a huge primary month,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: so mark your calendars. Recently, you said that if Antonin
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Scalia had lived, Trump wouldn't have been elected, which seems
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: to apply. Hillary would have won in twenty sixteen. But
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: you also said the year it said the year you
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: thought she could have won was four. I do believe that.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Can you explain what you meant? Also, with and I
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: owe money and the transfer portal changing college basketball, do
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: you think limiting players to one transfer could help fix
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: some of the current issues and restore more team continuity?
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Matt in Minneapolis, Go Gophers? All right, you got three
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: questions here, so yes, I think ultimately, I do believe
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton's best shot at the presidency was actually two
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: thousand and four, the year she didn't run, you know,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: not OA in not sixteen. What do I mean? Why
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: do I say, oh, four more than any others? And
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: I did this as a what if exercise, By the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: way of alternative history, she was the front runner. She
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: had very high favorable ratings at the time, probably was
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: higher favorable ratings than John Carrey did at the time
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: or even Al Gore. But that would happen with Hillary,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: right like you know, when she was in the middle
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: of a political campaign, then all the negatives would negative
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: negativity would come and it would lower her numbers. But still, look,
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: we were in the middle of a war right after
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: nine to eleven. I just think that being the former
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: first lady with another president sort of with a former
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: president as the first gentleman, would have probably been enough
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: to convince that slice of voter who didn't want to
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: change horses in midstream during a war. And we were
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: at ward twenty oh four. So that's why I believe
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: the only Democrat that could have won maybe Al Gore
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: as a sitting former sitting vice president, former vice president,
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: But I actually think that would have been the moment.
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: I think Hillary would have been seen as hawkish enough,
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: and frankly, those voters that might be a little hesitant
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: about electing a woman president might have been reassured by
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: the fact that there's a former president who she happened
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: to be married to I just think when you're changing,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: if you're asking voters to change commander in chiefs, they're
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: going to want more familiarity. And that's a case where
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: I think this is where by point, this is where
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: her her being tied to a former president was an asset,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: and I think a four would the only time was
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: an asset. Right, it was a liability in no A
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: because it didn't signify change, and by sixteen it was
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: a liability frankly for the same reason. Now, yes, do
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: I think that she ends up winning, I think she's
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: only a one term or if she does in sixteen,
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: if Scalia lives, I do because I do think Trump
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: had been disqualified and I think the only thing that
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: brought many Republicans back to hold their nose and instead
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: of voting Gary Johnson as a as a protest vote,
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: but when ahead to vote to Trump was the fact
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: that there was an open seat that was going to
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: be that could change literally change ideological hands depending on
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: the election of the president. And I do not I
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: think if Scalia is alive, I do not think. I
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: think you have more of those events, those people that
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: didn't like his character, who weren't ready to come aboard
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: the Trump train, probably end up in the Gary Johnson column,
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: and Gary Johnson probably ends up closer to ten percent,
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: which would have been the decisive figure for Hillary Clinton.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: So there's my explanation of that. All right, let me
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: take one more question here, because I went long on
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: both of those. This comes from Patrick in Los Angeles.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: He goes the talk of I five and I ninety
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: five and political party messaging made me think of one
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: of my favorite pop culture quotes that unintentionally sums up
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of American politics. You see Homer meaning Homer Simpson.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: You see Homer. There's a place between New York and
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: Los Angeles. We call it America. Do you have any
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: pop culture quotes or moments that unintentionally carry weight politically,
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Patrick and Los Angeles, I'll tell you one that I
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: use all the time. I always say my favorite political
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: pundit is Buffalo Springfield, which of course is a group,
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: not an individual, but some people think it Buffalo Springfield
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: sounds like an individual. But there's a there's a great
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield song. So the song title this is a
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield song. The song title is for what It's worth.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: It was written by Steven Stills. But it's but I
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: always say, you know, I think the most important, the
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: smartest political pundit we've ever had in handicapping elections as
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Springfield. Because and this goes back, and I'll tell
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: you the origin of why I became obsessed with this quote.
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: The quote goes, there's something happening here. What it is
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: ain't exactly clear, and it's that first half. Now, the
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: rest of the stanza goes, there's a man with a
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: gun over there telling me I gotta beware, So I
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: leave the gun line out. But there's something happening here
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: and what it is ain't exactly clear. It is my
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: favorite cop out political punditry quote. And the first person
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: I ever saw use it was actually Stan Greenberg. He
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: was Bill Clinton's polster in ninety two. We made it
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: our quote of the day in the Hotline, and it
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: was just I just thought it was the funniest thing ever,
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: because it was like, it was clear to me that
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: the reporter who was quoting Greenberg thought they were taking
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: a serious quote from the polster, going well, you know,
• 57:55
  Speaker 1: there's something happening out here, but what it is ain't
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: exactly clear. Didn't say he was quoting somebody, so the
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: reporter was sort of oblivious to the fact that he
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: was doing a lyric, you know. And so I've always
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: just thought, I mean, you know, when you're a political reporter,
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: the weirdest things crack you up, and this one always
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: cracked me up. So it's always actually been my go to,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: Hey whenever I you know, if I've been asked for
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: the empteeenth time, which way are things going? You know?
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: What did this poll mean? Well? You know, you know, Leicester,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: there's something happening out of here, and what it is
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: ain't exactly clear. You gotta stop. Hey, what's that anyway?
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: So with that, I will leave you here. I've got
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: a real great rant to come on the Wizards and Nationals.
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: I do believe, and I challenge you, my listeners, to
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: to prove me wrong. Of all the form. If you
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: want to count NHL as your fourth major sport, NFL, NBA,
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: MLB and NHL, is there a four major sports city
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: in worst shape than right here in Washington. I don't
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: think there is another for sport, major city, major league
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: city who doesn't have at least one team can actually
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: contending for a title. The best we got is sort
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: of the Caps and OV who you just had and
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: can't ever count them out, and who knows, right hockey playoffs,
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: anything can happen. But let's be honest, it's kind of
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: weak tea, right, It's aging. You know, it's a mess here.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: The Wizards and Nats are embarrassing, embarrassing their fan bases.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: And I have a lot more to say about this
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: tanking thing, but I've got to wrap up this broadcast,
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: so with that, I'll see in twenty four hours.