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2022 Crop Tour Day 4 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Egg Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the egg markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: Today is August 4th, and Gunnar and I here are wrapping up our final day of the Crop Tour.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: So we're gonna talk a little bit about yesterday's findings on the uh what was that, the fourth day of the Crop Tour?
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, fourth day.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: And uh we kind of uh had a route that went from White County, Indiana yesterday, got into Illinois, uh stretched across a northern central area of Illinois, kind of past Prioria, and then uh kind of worked our way towards uh Mechanicsville, Cedar Rapids area into Iowa last night.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: So the uh weather's changed a little bit for these markets, pushed a little bit more weather into the north towards the Dakotas, uh wrapped a little bit further east as well, getting some more rains over the next seven days for those I states east.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: Nebraska still looks pretty left out of it.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: The six to ten days still pretty dry, uh pretty uh pretty hot yet uh compared to normal.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: But the moral of the story here on these markets over the past 24 hours, even a little bit longer than that, would be uh better chances for the rain in the north and west.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we are also seeing money flowing out of commodities here early part of this week.
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: Um we do see uh the markets bouncing here a little bit today.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: November soybeans up 21 cents, 1390, and then the corn up five here to about six oh one on that December.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: So finding some decent support here.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: We'll see if it can hold uh towards the end of the week.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh do have a situation brewing in Taiwan, like we kind of talked about on yesterday's podcast there.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_01: China military launched some more exercises around Taiwan, so that situation is uh that is ramping up a little bit here as well.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: People have been taking a little bit more of a risk-off approach on these soybeans as of real late.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_01: And then the uh one of the last talking points on soybeans here.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_01: Looks like Brazil's gonna try to plant a record amount of soybeans this year.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh that'll be keeping a little bit of a lid on these crops here until we know more about that weather in the meantime.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: But Gunnar, I'm gonna have you talk a little bit about the overall stops here from the last day or so, kind of what we've traveled, things like that.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Mike, uh it's it's been a great trip so far.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: 1820 miles down with 315 to go.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: It's it's been a long journey, but I've seen a lot of great corn.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh yesterday, I think we seen our strongest samples, and especially at the end there in Joy, uh Joy, Illinois, and Cedar County, Iowa.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um clearly some of the best corn we've seen on the tour with with not a lot of uh early drought, so we retained a lot of those kernels um on especially on the top end with with little uh tip off.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm very excited for the last two stops in Iowa, and they're known for great corn yields, so I'm I'm really excited to see what samples we kind of pull.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_01: Awesome.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_01: Well, out of the uh out of the stops we had yesterday, like you mentioned, we worked from White County, um, Indiana there.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: We had some poor conditions.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_01: The kind of early on there, kind of drier, that was saved by some real recent rains, soybeans uh still pretty short by this point in the trip, and uh started to get better.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh started to get really uh into that better part of Indiana, though it started to improve a little bit.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Those samples mainly came just below average, which was a little bit of a trend for some of that far eastern uh part of the corn belt there uh until we worked back towards somewhere like Iroquois County, Illinois.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: Really no signs of aborted kernels at that point there, which was a little surprising really early on.
• 3:52
  SPEAKER_01: They had some really dry conditions, but had some really nice improvement on the drought map here recently over the past few weeks.
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we found those samples about average, but probably just below average still.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't until about LaSalle County that we started to see some more above average yields where we could surpass some of last year's numbers, I think.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: Um that that's really started to improve by that point.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh really started to get away from some of those drier areas in that border between Illinois and Indiana, and that's kind of where we really could start to tell.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_01: And by the time we got to the west side of the state there in the center of Illinois, Joy really showed some great potential.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: The crop popped out of the ground early, according to local farmers there, uh, had a really great start to the crop.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_01: They are excited about their crop, they think they could have uh some really nice yields this year.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_01: Consistency was great.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the soybeans look great by this point in the trip as well.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_01: Some some major improvements by the west side of the state compared to the east.
• 4:54
  SPEAKER_01: Um and then i it was a very similar story as we wrapped up uh in eastern Iowa last night towards the central part of the state, towards Cedar Rapids.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: Uh very similar story.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: Showed pretty decent potential.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_01: More average samples is what we pulled, but uh condition-wise, really the only thing they can complain about is maybe uh uh uh imperfect planting time frame there is that did g stretch a little bit longer this year, planted more towards the middle of May, which was maybe a little bit too late.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: So if anything's really gonna cap the yield potential there at this point, I would give that uh I would give that the reason.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_01: So but uh for the day anyways, we've started to finally see some more of the eastern corn belt crops that we were promised going into the tour.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_01: Uh it was pretty mixed, I think, for the eastern crop tour.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um I was a little bit disappointed in it.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_01: I was hoping to see a little bit more above trend or average yields to really help carry that Western Corn Belt.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_01: We did find some, but we're gonna crunch the numbers, come out with some really strong stuff tomorrow, and see if it was enough to uh try to lift up some yields uh to make up for Nebraska.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: So please check in tomorrow with our final crop tour uh day as we get wrapped up today with our findings, and then uh we'll have an overall summary for you as well.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks, guys.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_01: Please reach out to us from our website at professionalagmarketing.com or check out our newly added hog specific podcast named Hog Market Talk that's released every Thursday.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk and loss that is not suitable for all investors.