Latest / Racers Odds / The First Fall Charlotte Oval Since 2017... Here's Who To Watch
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Racers Odds.
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: I'm David Stiles.
- 0:02SPEAKER_00: He's Andrew Curland, and he's fresh out of the desert as Chase Briscoe rolled the dice in Las Vegas and came up with another big day, 75 points, just one point shy of a max points day in Las Vegas.
- 0:15SPEAKER_00: And he gains a considerable number of points on the leader, 39 altogether, but it's just not enough.
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: Kyle Larson still gained 14 points on the rest of the field.
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: He's in first place.
- 0:28SPEAKER_00: Denny Hamlin minus, he lost 14 points.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: He's still minus 40.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: And this is starting to get away from the rest of the field as Kyle Larson continues just to stack up good finishes.
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: And Andrew, it was not a good week for me on the books.
- 0:42SPEAKER_00: Only hit two out of six of those bets, and we lost 24 units, but we're still up 300 plus units on the year.
- 0:50SPEAKER_00: So if you've been following along and placing the same bets that we have, you're still doing pretty good so far this season.
- 0:56SPEAKER_01: Yeah, no, 100%.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: Um, I don't know who I bet.
- 1:00SPEAKER_01: I feel like I remember saying the Toyotas were gonna be good.
- 1:04SPEAKER_01: Um, which I I you know they obviously had the race winner.
- 1:08SPEAKER_01: Chase Briscoe is um one of those good drivers.
- 1:11SPEAKER_01: But um, you know, it'll be interesting going into Charlotte.
- 1:15SPEAKER_01: I feel like there's uh a number of different players who have emerged as of late who are good.
- 1:20SPEAKER_01: People that you wouldn't necessarily expect to be good at a mile and a half, but we're at this point of the season where the rules are just different just because of where you are performance-wise and such.
- 1:32SPEAKER_01: So um I'm gonna be looking at a handful of drivers from a bunch of different manufacturers and teams, I feel like, for this weekend in Charlotte.
- 1:41SPEAKER_01: I've I'm I'm kind of casting a wider net than I normally would.
- 1:45SPEAKER_00: For us at PRN, this is a home race.
- 1:47SPEAKER_00: Our offices are here at Charlotte Motor Speedway, so we're all hands on deck this week, getting ready to go back on the oval, the first time that we have seen this configuration in the fall since 2017.
- 2:00SPEAKER_00: And so stats are a little bit different.
- 2:02SPEAKER_00: I like the road course, but I think this will give us a good barometer of what our champion is this year.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: And this rounds out the final of the three 1.5 mile tracks back to back to back.
- 2:14SPEAKER_00: And Kyle Larson, like I said earlier, has been very dominant through this stretch.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: His average finish in these first five races, 2.2.
- 2:22SPEAKER_00: So he's been on fire.
- 2:24SPEAKER_00: So let's start looking at some bets.
- 2:26SPEAKER_00: And I found the books to be very just uh this week.
- 2:30SPEAKER_00: When I started looking at them, there wasn't anything that really stood out to me where I thought, oh, yes, let's lay some units on that.
- 2:36SPEAKER_00: So I have a few different things here and there.
- 2:38SPEAKER_00: I do have three matchups, but I'm going to start off with something that we usually don't talk about because typically the odds are just not really good for them.
- 2:48SPEAKER_00: But I've got a group bet this week that is on DraftKings that I think is actually pretty competitive.
- 2:54SPEAKER_00: It is Carson Hosevar versus Chris Busher versus Ross Chastain versus Brad Keslowski.
- 3:01SPEAKER_00: If you look at the way that they've been finishing, Busher, 20th, 27th, 13th, 23rd, 13th, that's the five races that he has had.
- 3:10SPEAKER_00: Carson Hosevar, up until he had that 33rd place finish, had an 11th, an 8th, a 3rd, and a 12th in the other four races.
- 3:18SPEAKER_00: He's been running a little bit better than Chris Busher has over the past five races.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: And I think he's kind of on a different strategy than everybody else.
- 3:27SPEAKER_00: So I actually like Carson Hosevar in this group D matchup here on this 1.5 mile oval at Charlotte over Busher, Chastain, and Keslowski.
- 3:35SPEAKER_00: If you like that bet, he just has to finish above those three other guys.
- 3:39SPEAKER_00: That's plus 140.
- 3:40SPEAKER_00: So he is favored in that group.
- 3:42SPEAKER_00: And I think that he ran pretty well here in Charlotte.
- 3:46SPEAKER_00: And oh yeah, his teammate won this race in the summer.
- 3:49SPEAKER_00: So Spire, I think they're they're punching above their weight still, but I actually like Hosevar to finish above those other three cars.
- 3:56SPEAKER_00: I know Chastain, former 600 winner.
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: Chris Busher, very competitive here, and Keslowski has won at this racetrack before, but I think that he's just on a little bit different playing field than those other three drivers.
- 4:07SPEAKER_00: That's a little risky, but I actually really do like that group bet.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: Andrew, what are your thoughts?
- 4:12SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, Busher's the only one where I would be like, oh, maybe it's worth considering him just because he was solid enough in Vegas.
- 4:21SPEAKER_01: I don't know where he ended up, but I remember talking about him a lot, um, kind of being in that top 10, top 15 range.
- 4:28SPEAKER_01: Um I'm I'm not gonna be real creative here.
- 4:32SPEAKER_01: Uh I feel like the top guys are gonna be the top guys that we've seen the last two weeks, the last two mile and a halves.
- 4:37SPEAKER_01: I like Kyle Larson.
- 4:39SPEAKER_01: I like Chase Briscoe.
- 4:40SPEAKER_01: If it wasn't for power steering, I think Christopher Rubel would have been in the picture a lot more.
- 4:45SPEAKER_01: Um I think you still have to consider Denny Hamlin being a player anywhere.
- 4:50SPEAKER_01: Um, William Byron has been like a sneaky top ten type of driver at the mile and a half this season.
- 4:57SPEAKER_01: Um and and Bubba Wallace, too.
- 5:00SPEAKER_01: His performance took me by surprise in Vegas, but he ran great and was a consistent player up front.
- 5:07SPEAKER_01: It wasn't like he just found himself up front at the end of that race.
- 5:11SPEAKER_01: He he had tremendous speed.
- 5:13SPEAKER_01: So um of those front runners, I like Bell a lot.
- 5:19SPEAKER_01: And Bell talking to him uh just before the chase started, said, I love Charlotte.
- 5:24SPEAKER_01: It's one of my favorite racetracks.
- 5:26SPEAKER_01: The only thing about it is I don't like long races.
- 5:30SPEAKER_01: And the Coke 600, I'm just not a fan of it.
- 5:33SPEAKER_01: He won the Coke 600, but it was rained short in Coke 600.
- 5:36SPEAKER_01: Now we get into the sweet spot of a mile and a half at 400 miles at one of Chris Rubel's favorite racetracks.
- 5:43SPEAKER_01: I think he gets a second win of the chase this weekend.
- 5:46SPEAKER_01: That's gonna be my official vote.
- 5:48SPEAKER_00: If you take him as a winner on Caesars, that's plus 425.
- 5:52SPEAKER_00: Kyle Larson plus 450.
- 5:54SPEAKER_00: Denny Hamlin, 500 on Caesars.
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: Chase Briscoe plus 650.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: And then you mentioned William Byron.
- 6:01SPEAKER_00: William Byron, average running position at this racetrack when it's on the oval configuration is seven-ish.
- 6:08SPEAKER_00: So that's pretty decent.
- 6:10SPEAKER_00: William Byron to win the race plus 1,500.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: And then Bubba Wallace plus 1,800.
- 6:15SPEAKER_00: Joey Logano, former winner at this configuration, plus 1,600.
- 6:19SPEAKER_00: Those 1,000 pluses for the winners, that's a little hard for me.
- 6:23SPEAKER_00: The only one that I really like that I may think would be worth the squeeze would be Byron at plus 1,500.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: But I think you're right.
- 6:30SPEAKER_00: I think the Toyotas will be strong again this weekend.
- 6:33SPEAKER_00: And I think Kyle Larson will be really strong this weekend.
- 6:36SPEAKER_01: It's also worth talking about Austin Sendrick.
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: He finished top five the last two mile and a halves.
- 6:41SPEAKER_01: He's only done that once before in his career.
- 6:44SPEAKER_01: And uh he really did not have a whole lot of mile and a half stats going into Kansas.
- 6:50SPEAKER_01: And all of a sudden, he has found just like the speed at the mile and a halves.
- 6:55SPEAKER_01: He's not going to win the race, I don't think.
- 6:56SPEAKER_01: But if you take a look at Austin Cendrick for top ten, I think that's where you can get the most value.
- 7:02SPEAKER_01: And I think that's what's pretty cool.
- 7:04SPEAKER_00: Cendrick, just to give you some more ammunition for this, he is the second in average finish across the last five races since the chase has started with an eight-place average finish.
- 7:15SPEAKER_00: He's averaging 37 points per race, and he's gained six spots in the chase standings since the beginning of the chase five races ago.
- 7:26SPEAKER_00: Those finishes a 13th, a 10th, an 11th, a second, and a fourth.
- 7:31SPEAKER_00: So he has been very, very consistent over the last five races, and that goes perfectly into my next bet, which you mentioned Bubba Wallace.
- 7:40SPEAKER_00: You said that he's been running very well in the mile and a half, and he isn't a Toyota.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: He isn't a matchup with Austin Cendrick.
- 7:46SPEAKER_00: Bubba Wallace is favored at minus 120.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: Austin Cendrick at minus 110, which is a little bit around that 50% probability that I really like to bet on.
- 7:55SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to bet on Austin Cendrick to finish better than Bubba Wallace at Charlotte this weekend in one of those matchups.
- 8:02SPEAKER_00: You can find that one on DraftKings.
- 8:04SPEAKER_00: Cendrick, minus 110.
- 8:06SPEAKER_00: Bubba Wallace, minus 120.
- 8:08SPEAKER_00: I really like that bet.
- 8:09SPEAKER_00: I think that was the first one that I wrote down on my bet slip this week because Cindrick has been performing very well over the last five weeks.
- 8:17SPEAKER_01: That's solid.
- 8:18SPEAKER_01: That's real solid.
- 8:19SPEAKER_01: I feel like that's a pretty fair matchup, too.
- 8:21SPEAKER_01: Um, but I think I'm with you.
- 8:23SPEAKER_01: I I would give the benefit of the doubt to Austin Cendrick just based on the speed that they found it.
- 8:29SPEAKER_01: And Team Penske as a whole.
- 8:31SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, Joey Logano scored his first stage points in a mile and a half at Kansas, and Ryan Blaney was a player in the top ten at the end of Las Vegas.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: So um something about Team Penske, they figured out how to improve on their weakest spot, and we're seeing the proof of concept right now, which I think is important.
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: And I feel like Joey Logano needs to be mentioned in this conversation just a little bit because he has a 20th place at Kansas two weeks ago, but it I don't think that's a reflection of how well he was running.
- 9:06SPEAKER_00: He was a top 15 car, top 10 car all day, and then courted that right front tire and had to limp it back to the finish line just to get a finish and ended up finishing in 20th.
- 9:15SPEAKER_00: So he would have gotten more points and would have had a better finish.
- 9:18SPEAKER_00: I think their mile and a half package altogether for Team Pinski has been better over these last three races.
- 9:25SPEAKER_00: It just hasn't materialized for points for all of those Team Pinsky drivers.
- 9:29SPEAKER_00: So now we're gonna transition.
- 9:31SPEAKER_00: I've got two more matchups left, and that will kind of round out what I normally pick.
- 9:35SPEAKER_00: And then I'm gonna pick a winner this week because I think it's just gonna line up that way.
- 9:39SPEAKER_00: So I usually don't pick a winner, but I'm gonna pick one this week.
- 9:43SPEAKER_00: So the other two matchups I have, I'm gonna go head to head with our points leader and the and our runner-up in the standings.
- 9:49SPEAKER_00: Both of these guys are minus 115.
- 9:51SPEAKER_00: It's Larson versus Hamlin.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: Larson historically has not run very well at Charlotte in the past, and Denny Hamlin needs to have a good weekend to try and cut into this lead.
- 10:03SPEAKER_00: He's 40 points behind Larson right now.
- 10:06SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to fade that and bet on Denny Hamlin at minus 115 in that matchup to finish better than Kyle Larson to try to cut into that deficit.
- 10:15SPEAKER_00: The next one is very interesting to me, and I like this one a lot.
- 10:19SPEAKER_00: Ty Gibbs has been faltering lately.
- 10:21SPEAKER_00: He doesn't have a great average finish at this track, and we've already talked about William Byron just a shade.
- 10:27SPEAKER_00: William Byron is plus 100 to Ty Gibbs minus 130 at this track.
- 10:34SPEAKER_00: This matchup blows my mind a little bit.
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: I know Gibbs has been very consistent all year long, but Byron at plus 100, that's just too good not to bet on right now at this point in the week.
- 10:44SPEAKER_00: So I think you throw a few units on that, and then if that line changes, you can always pull those units back off in the future.
- 10:51SPEAKER_00: But I think betting on Byron right now at plus 100 to tie Gibbs at minus 130 is a good bet, and that rounds out my matchups.
- 10:58SPEAKER_01: I think that's solid.
- 10:59SPEAKER_01: I also agree with you in the fact that Denny cuts into Kyle Larson's point lead this weekend.
- 11:07SPEAKER_01: Um and he should have last weekend in Vegas.
- 11:11SPEAKER_01: I don't know, again, I don't know how Larson's gonna fire off this weekend.
- 11:15SPEAKER_01: Um, whether or not we qualify or not to will also be a big thing.
- 11:19SPEAKER_01: If we get started by the metric, that may change uh a lot of of who starts where and may dictate how the start of the race goes.
- 11:28SPEAKER_01: Obviously, that was a storyline going into Bristol was we qualified via the metric.
- 11:33SPEAKER_01: You didn't actually get a shot at you know vying for a starting position, and you already are talking about stage one being a challenge for some teams who were chase drivers, mired in the back, now having to figure out how to capture those stage one points.
- 11:50SPEAKER_01: So um that will also be something interesting.
- 11:52SPEAKER_01: I don't know what the metric would hold in terms of who starts where if we were to start it right now, but um just something to consider because the metric, I'm sure, is gonna be favoring Kyle Larson based on his finishing position and where he is at the points.
- 12:06SPEAKER_00: It has to.
- 12:07SPEAKER_00: And now for the winner, I like I said, I usually don't pick a winner.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: I think you're right.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: I think Christopher Bell, he's really good here.
- 12:13SPEAKER_00: And I think this lines up perfectly for him last week with the power steering issue.
- 12:17SPEAKER_00: He's usually better than that at Vegas.
- 12:19SPEAKER_00: I'm just gonna go with the books.
- 12:20SPEAKER_00: I think you bet the favorite he on Caesar, it's plus 425.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: I think you put a few units on him this week.
- 12:27SPEAKER_00: I think plus 500 on plus 500 on DraftKings, that's where you go then.
- 12:32SPEAKER_00: Plus 500 on DraftKings, get that longer odd on him and uh cash that in a little bit.
- 12:37SPEAKER_00: So that rounds out all my bets.
- 12:39SPEAKER_00: Andrew, anything else that you're looking at to put some units on this week?
- 12:43SPEAKER_01: Um if you really want to get crazy, Corey Hymes in the field, and he's already love the race car too.
- 12:49SPEAKER_00: He's got an awesome paint scheme with the blue Marlin on it, and it's a North Carolina themed uh paint scheme.
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: So perfect for this racetrack.
- 12:58SPEAKER_01: Outside of that though, um just taking a look, yeah.
- 13:03SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think you said it, David.
- 13:05SPEAKER_01: The there's not a lot of eye-catching stuff out there, something, not a lot of plus money stuff that makes you go, oh, all right, I feel like I'm taking advantage of this.
- 13:13SPEAKER_01: So um it's a lower risk week, I feel like this week, but um, it should be fun.
- 13:20SPEAKER_01: I'm I'm looking forward to calling the race from the turns.
- 13:22SPEAKER_01: I know you'll be in the turns this weekend too for the truck series, so we've got a good view to see how our bets are going to be shaken out.
- 13:28SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's gonna be really exciting as we watch them go down that 1,500 foot back straightaway and uh and sell off into turn three in front of uh Doug Turnbull this week.
- 13:37SPEAKER_00: So that'll that'll be a lot of fun.
- 13:39SPEAKER_00: Uh one other thing that I wanted to ask you because I saw this bet and it just peaked in my mind.
- 13:44SPEAKER_00: We've had the stage winner of one and two win the race in back-to-back weeks on these mile and a halves.
- 13:51SPEAKER_00: Do you think that that is a place where people should look for value or should they stay away from that?
- 13:55SPEAKER_00: And the last two weeks were kind of an anomaly because there is a bet like that on Caesars where you can bet on the winner of stage one and the winner of stage two to win the race.
- 14:05SPEAKER_00: It's a pretty long odd, but uh is that something that betters should look for?
- 14:10SPEAKER_00: For me, I think no.
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: I think that those two races were dominated by dominant cars and they were able to work the strategy and win both of those stages.
- 14:18SPEAKER_00: But we're seeing the stage points be very, very important in this championship battle.
- 14:23SPEAKER_00: So should that be something that betters consider?
- 14:25SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna say no just because, and you can correct me if I'm wrong about Kansas, but um if it's gonna I I'm I'm saying no, banking on the fact that we might get qualifying reined out.
- 14:39SPEAKER_01: And if that's the case, the the fast cars are not necessarily gonna be in the front.
- 14:43SPEAKER_01: We're gonna see comers and goers, and I think it's gonna take a stage or two to maybe figure out who the race-winning cars are.
- 14:51SPEAKER_01: So I will say no for the specific weekend, but if there's anything that the last two mile and a half has shown us, it's when you figure it out, it clicks and you dominate, you know.
- 15:01SPEAKER_01: Um, so I'm curious to see who that driver's gonna be that that pops off on the scoring chart and really leads the most laps.
- 15:08SPEAKER_01: Because I I do think there will be a clear lap leader.
- 15:11SPEAKER_01: I'll say that.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: I like it.
- 15:13SPEAKER_00: I'm I'm in the same camp.
- 15:14SPEAKER_00: I think that those other two weeks were not an anomaly, but it set up perfectly for those two drivers to do that over the last two weeks, and I don't think that we'll see that again.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: The previous three winners in the first three races, they each scored 73 points, and then we've had two drivers, two different drivers in back-to-back weeks.
- 15:32SPEAKER_00: One of them scored maximum points, and then the other one was one point shy away from maximum points.
- 15:37SPEAKER_00: So something just to look at and something to file away for maybe later in the season or maybe next year, if that uh piques your interest at another one of these mile and a half, but just a little interesting wrinkle to throw into the show this week.
- 15:51SPEAKER_00: All right, let's get into pick them.
- 15:53SPEAKER_00: I'm still way behind, but I think that I actually gained what, two points on you last week.
- 15:57SPEAKER_00: I had Joe Arigano.
- 15:59SPEAKER_00: So uh, you know, I'm eating into that lead ever so slightly.
- 16:02SPEAKER_00: He scored 32 points, and uh who did you have last week?
- 16:06SPEAKER_00: I can't remember.
- 16:07SPEAKER_01: I had Bell who scored 31, so I actually get to pick first.
- 16:10SPEAKER_00: There you go.
- 16:11SPEAKER_00: All right, I'll let you I'll let you go first.
- 16:13SPEAKER_00: He's a very odd odd situation.
- 16:15SPEAKER_00: I know.
- 16:15SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I'm gonna go with a guy that I talked about.
- 16:17SPEAKER_01: I went on racing reference before we chatted and actually saw that this driver has finished in the top 10 in all of the mile and a half races that we've been to, and that's William Byron.
- 16:30SPEAKER_00: I like it.
- 16:31SPEAKER_00: He's a good pick for here.
- 16:32SPEAKER_00: We've talked about him earlier in the show.
- 16:34SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go with my guns.
- 16:36SPEAKER_00: I think it's Christopher Bell's weekend.
- 16:38SPEAKER_00: I think this is the right slot to use Christopher Bell.
- 16:41SPEAKER_00: You used him last week.
- 16:42SPEAKER_00: So I think I think this will line up for me.
- 16:44SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, he can get a max point day or at least in the 70s and win this race, and then I can get a little bit closer because we're getting down to the nitty-gritty.
- 16:52SPEAKER_00: We've only got five races left, and I don't know if I can make up the points or not.
- 16:56SPEAKER_00: So I may have a punishment coming up here at the end of the year once we decide uh who the winner is out of this pick'em game.
- 17:04SPEAKER_01: I think Bell's really solid.
- 17:05SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 17:05SPEAKER_00: Yeah, Bell's a solid pick this week.
- 17:07SPEAKER_00: I again picked him as the winner at plus 500.
- 17:10SPEAKER_00: So I think that's a solid uh solid choice by me.
- 17:12SPEAKER_00: Anything else here before we wrap up this show and we get into another Charlotte race weekend here in the uh Old North State?
- 17:20SPEAKER_01: Uh it's it I don't know.
- 17:21SPEAKER_01: It's just it's Charlotte Race Week.
- 17:23SPEAKER_01: You can see the racetracks behind me, and uh they're busy at work setting the racetrack up today and and getting it all set.
- 17:29SPEAKER_01: And um I, you know, we've we've done 14 of these for the Performance Racing Network, but this week, even though I just came back from Vegas, this week I feels like race week.
- 17:43SPEAKER_01: You know, you wake up on Monday, you're like, it's race week.
- 17:46SPEAKER_01: And I was just at a racetrack.
- 17:48SPEAKER_01: But i i that's my best way to describe it.
- 17:50SPEAKER_01: There's something special about the home game that's Charlotte, and uh I think it's gonna be a special weekend with the Oval being back as well.
- 17:57SPEAKER_00: I mean, growing up, Bristol was kind of my home track because we stopped racing at North Wilkesboro when I was a little kid.
- 18:03SPEAKER_00: So Bristol's always kind of been the de facto home track.
- 18:05SPEAKER_00: But since I moved to Charlotte and worked here, race weekends at Charlotte just hit different.
- 18:09SPEAKER_00: And it's America's home for racing.
- 18:11SPEAKER_00: I mean, this is the center for NASCAR.
- 18:15SPEAKER_00: And so it's a home race for all of these drivers, and it's just a lot of fun to be at this racetrack.
- 18:20SPEAKER_00: So for Andrew Curlin, I'm David Stiles.
- 18:22SPEAKER_00: Thanks for stopping by, Racers Odds.
- 18:24SPEAKER_00: Hopefully, we've injected some more fun into your weekend and you're able to grow that bankroll.
- 18:29SPEAKER_00: Stop in next week and uh we'll short the next one coming up after Charlotte.
- 18:33SPEAKER_00: That'll be Phoenix.
- 18:34SPEAKER_00: So for Andrew Curlin, I'm David Styles.
- 18:36SPEAKER_00: We'll talk again next week.