Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Beans on the Move! What Sparked Yesterday's Surge | Grain Talk February 5th, 2026

Transcript

Beans on the Move! What Sparked Yesterday's Surge | Grain Talk February 5th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_02: Today is February 5th.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_02: I've got Jaden here with us here today.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to talk about the grain markets, but we have a plethora of items to talk about with these crazy markets here today.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_02: Jaden, how's it going?
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: It's going good, Mike.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: How about yourself?
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_02: Oh, it is something.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you what, these markets have been incredibly choppy this week.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm going to give you a little bit of the breakdown on the agenda for this podcast today.
• 0:41
  SPEAKER_02: What we're going to do is we're going to talk about a just a broad overview of uh I'm talking outside markets, kind of breaking it down into commodities and the impact it's had.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_02: A little bit wrap up and talk about the commodity boom a little bit and include that two that we mentioned weeks ago.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_02: And then we're going to get into why soybeans traded the way they did the last two days, 45Z, India trade deal, and then what to look forward to.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_02: So you ready?
• 1:04
  SPEAKER_02: I'm ready, Mike.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Alright.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: Broad market overview.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to have Cade pull up some of the outside markets here on the screen that you guys can see.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_02: The SP 500 has been getting rocked.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: We're going to start with the outside markets.
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_02: Stock market's been super choppy here, Jaden.
• 1:17
  SPEAKER_02: Investors have been weighing weaker manufacturing numbers against still firm services spending.
• 1:23
  SPEAKER_02: So not as much revenue, and we're spending a bunch of money.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_02: We're selling off the tech sector pretty darn hard here and the defense sectors as well, getting very little support.
• 1:32
  SPEAKER_02: So the pullback that we've seen in the equities the last couple days is starting to really add up.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_02: It seems like risk off.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_02: Bitcoin as well for an outside investment under 70,000 again.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_02: Really seeing setbacks in some of those.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_02: We've seen gold.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_02: That took a really big hit to again today.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_02: Last Friday was a crazy day in the gold market and silver after trading with volume greater than the entirety of the Meg 7 complex last Thursday.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_02: Silver is completely tanked along with gold, tried to recover a little bit.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_02: We're pulling it back really hard today.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: Part of that being tied to the firmer US dollar Jaden.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_02: We've had some rising rate expectations, so we're probably not going to cut interest rates as hard as what we expected, or if if any.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_02: And uh we've seen continued liquidation because of that here.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: So a little bit firmer US dollar, uh a little bit weaker metals and equities kind of all tying together on those outside markets.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_02: And just to kind of cap off the outside markets here, Jaden, that crude oil market, it's been trying to stabilize, but it's been really choppy as well lately.
• 2:33
  SPEAKER_02: Uh something that definitely gets watched from a spending perspective, uh inflation, and and where some of this money flow is going into energy markets because that makes up a bigger part of that commodity basket.
• 2:45
  SPEAKER_02: And as we talk about the commodity basket, Jaden, we we mentioned it uh it could have even been a week ago on this show that we talked about the potential of a commodity boom.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_02: We we've seen the silver market and dollar and and uh sell off, and we've seen uh the debasement trade alive and well, but we are just wondering when is corn gonna participate in this?
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_02: The proteins have been getting some support, uh, the money flow has been going there with a little bit tighter balance sheet already.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_02: We're just wondering when is the grant when are the grain markets gonna participate?
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_02: Well, we kind of found that the last two days, Jaden.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_02: So I want you to talk to me about what in the heck happened the last two trading days on this soybean market because I'm gonna have uh Cade pull up a minute chart of soybeans yesterday just to show how crazy this market's been.
• 3:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Mike, we we definitely got some kind of boom in the soybean market yesterday.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: Um, like you said, money flow tends to, you know, go towards the tightest balance sheet.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump's truth social post yesterday kind of helped help prove that.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_01: So Trump did come out and say that he was on a phone call with President G of China, and he key word here, consideration by by China that they're gonna lift their soybean count from this year from 12 million metric tons to 20 million metric tons.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_01: So that's that's around 300 million more bushels.
• 4:05
  SPEAKER_01: And just just for reference, our ending stocks is only 350 million bushels.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: So that really makes that balance sheet sure tight.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: But I I think it's important to keep in mind.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_01: He said the word consider, not for sure they're gonna do this.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_01: And also you look, Brazil's you know starting their harvest now, and normally China basically turns off their buying from us now, anyways.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_01: So we'll see going forward.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_01: Are are we gonna see um actual buying from China this time of the year when they, you know, this would be a counter-seasonal thing?
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_01: And but yeah, it got the soybean market excited yesterday, up 49 cents at one point on the March contract.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_02: So this post here that Cade's showing on the screen, this was his truth post at 9.38 Central Time yesterday morning, and we rallied up to 49 cents within a half hour of that post coming out.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: So it directly correlates.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_02: If you pull up the minute chart, you could go back to that there, Cade, um, yesterday showing just right there.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_02: You can see that spike from about 1060 on March soybeans.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_02: We ran all the way up to 11.15 just after 10 o'clock there, so just over about a half hour uh you added on uh about 49 cents at least on that soybean market.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_02: Crazy, crazy.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_02: We stabilized through the rest of the day there, and then we found some support on follow-through today, which was it caught some people a little bit off guard because it looked like to me, so that number, 12 million metric tons, 441 million bushels, if they did another 8 million metric tons, that'd be about 293 million more bushels of soybeans.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_02: Our export number was dropped last month.
• 5:40
  SPEAKER_02: Um, the the numbers coming out of the USDA do not support a move like this at all.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_02: Uh let alone like uh the rest of the soybean marketing year, uh, you know, we're gonna be taking sales away from other countries if they do that type of number to China going forward.
• 5:53
  SPEAKER_02: It's very counter-seasonal.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_02: Brazil is gonna have a big crop that we're just getting into.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_02: They're 11% complete harvested as of this week.
• 6:01
  SPEAKER_02: So they're just starting their export program to s uh to China.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_02: It's hard to believe that China would come in and buy 8 million metric more tons of this.
• 6:09
  SPEAKER_02: Obviously, that'd be a shock.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_02: It was a shock to the soybean market the last two days if they're even considering it, uh, which is what Trump said they're doing.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_02: So far, far from any guarantees, but no, this is gonna give you a pretty, pretty darn hard look at any old crop soybeans sitting out there that you feel like you missed out on on the last rally.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_02: Look at that today and what we've done.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_02: We hit about 61% retracement here on the on the recovery.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_02: Uh some pretty key technical spots that we're starting to take out on this soybean market.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_02: Probably the biggest story as of late when it comes to the grain trade, Jaden, just to say the least.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_02: Some of the other news that came out here this week, 45Z.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_02: This week's 45Z news added fuel to the fire, so to say, for this renewable diesel and uh ethanol market.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_02: Some of the things that had been discussed, this is the first news we've had on this in quite some time, but plants are trying to understand how the emission scoring and feedstock credits will all shake out.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_02: But the market viewed this framework as just slightly friendly that came out this week.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_02: The fact that they're probably just talking about it, Jaden, I think was friendly.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_02: We haven't heard anything for quite some time.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_02: So even though the full impact is still being modeled, uh, the psychology alone of just being tightened meal uh and oil tone here, meal and uh bean tone going forward is has been quite friendly.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_02: The 45Z deal uh first was a brought up to us in in the United States.
• 7:33
  SPEAKER_02: It really showed in about 2022, which we had a tighter balance sheet in the grains at that time.
• 7:38
  SPEAKER_02: So it didn't seem to do much until really recently that uh you could say we have elevated inning stocks now in the United States.
• 7:45
  SPEAKER_02: It's a pretty good time to try to incentivize some reasons to to use some of uh some of that corn and soybeans uh in excess there.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_02: So just some added fuel to the fire, so to say, on 45Z this week uh that I thought was worth mentioning to say the least.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_02: Um The other thing is you start to tie this to, there's been a lot more talk at as of late about E-15 being a seasonal option.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_02: I know we've covered it on the show as well, but you're just talking about this sector a little bit more now, the Trump administration is, and that's probably a friendly sign uh that they're doing that.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_02: So when it comes to this these grain markets, we've started to align a few items, Jaden, to accommodate if we're gonna get a commodity boom, maybe some money flow can come into the grain market specifically.
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_02: We probably have started to see that this week for the first time in quite some time.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_02: The next thing I think worth mentioning would be a very minute news item that came out this week.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_02: If it was any other week here recently, it probably would have got talked about more, but the India Trade Chatter.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_02: Um it's been another supportive headline that we've seen.
• 8:48
  SPEAKER_02: India is reportedly considering uh adjustments to their import duties, and this could reopen some discussions into some U.S.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_02: egg products uh that could come in uh as a trade package.
• 9:00
  SPEAKER_02: It's not a deal, it's not a done deal by any means, but uh the headline is it it's leaning a little bit more on the supportive side.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_02: And what I'd like to say about India and the possibility of a trade deal there is who it's gonna benefit would be one renewable diesel, soybean oil exports, which we don't really do today, but that could be a possibility, basically to help them out with the energy side of things.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_02: Two, the the other aspect would definitely be ethanol.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_02: Uh they're moving to E10 uh E20 there.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh we could really export them a heck of a lot of ethanol.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_02: Our ex ethanol export market's been picking up.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_02: I think that's a beautiful uh collaboration that we could see going forward.
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_02: Outside of that, they want to be very self-sufficient when it comes to their ag industry.
• 9:43
  SPEAKER_02: So they really don't import any corn soybeans directly.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_02: Um we're not gonna send them a lot of pork or beef, it looks like, obviously, for cultural reasons.
• 9:53
  SPEAKER_02: So I think if if something is regarding agriculture as a trade positive, which which it sounds like that was part of the package, then you're gonna be looking at mainly uh renewable fuel products, it sure looks like.
• 10:05
  SPEAKER_01: So you're one of the largest importers of soybean oil, so it makes sense.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_02: So if we are gonna export soybean oil, that's a pretty good destination to start with if we're gonna make up a trade deal.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_02: What are some of the things you think going forward, just as quick hit eyeing items that volatility's picked up a little bit now in this grain sector, which we've talked about was a problem for a while.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: Um what can we look forward to here in the next coming month, two months?
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, Mike, I guess the next coming month are probably just gonna be trading acres between corn and soybeans um after this week's rally.
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, soybeans are, you know, it probably was favoring corn a lot more than it is this week, but looking forward to next week.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_01: We have a WASD report there.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: Um so the yield's set, so really all they can change is demand there.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_01: So it'll be interesting to see what the USDA decides to do after this um true social tweet from Trump and whether they will, you know, mess with exports on the beans or not.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_01: And I uh I think people are really expecting Brazil's, you know, crop to be increased there as well.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_01: Um we know there's gonna be a record crop coming out of Brazil, so that's probably kind of already priced into the market already.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Cade's got those numbers up for the expectations there from Stonex up on the board.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: Um, a few things to look forward to in next week's trade just to topple on to this volatility.
• 11:19
  SPEAKER_02: The February 1 normally isn't that exciting, but this uh recent activity definitely could help ignite us or or change direction.
• 11:27
  SPEAKER_02: Uh some momentum traders are gonna be looking forward to that, I think.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_02: The acreage discussion is very interesting because outlook coming up after the WASDA report, we're gonna have the fab outlook at on the February 20th here.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: Very key items, November soybeans here after this little pop.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: We're sitting just shy of 11 bucks.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_02: 2.35 times greater than about corn at 468.
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_02: So if you start to talk about more normal levels, once you get a soybean market above 11 here, if corn's kind of hanging in here, it starts to be a lot more competitive for you guys to try to plant soybeans to make it work.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: It still isn't the best, don't get me wrong, it's not insanely profitable levels by any means, but uh we can start to make 11 plus work on soybean futures on on NOVE and get a little cute with it on uh on the corn side at you know 470 or higher, it starts to become a little bit more attractive from a profitability standpoint for a lot of farmers.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: So it gets to be very interesting territory as we head into next year's acreage battle as we start to talk about 470 and$11 here between the two crops.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_02: Other than the WAS day going forward and then the Feb outlook, then you're basically looking at prospective plannings at the end of March.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_02: So really a few quick hitting items to look forward to.
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_02: And then obviously the E15, 45Z, some of those things are gonna be very important.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_02: Are they gonna talk about 45q at all going forward is is another major talking point.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_02: If this Trump administration wants to head into midterms with some wins under their belt, they're probably gonna want to have some pretty good momentum on a lot of these items here, Jaden.
• 13:00
  SPEAKER_02: Any final thoughts for our listeners here this week uh after these crazy markets?
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_02: No, Mike, I think we hit it on the head.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_02: Well, thank you everyone for joining us.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate your time today.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_02: And thank you for tuning in today.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_02: Before we wrap up, just a quick reminder here.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_02: If you're listening on Spotify or Apple Podcasts, make sure to check us out on YouTube as well.
• 13:19
  SPEAKER_02: That's where we will post full video versions of these shows with charts and graphs and visual market breakdowns to help you follow along.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_02: Also, Riskology coming up February 17th on YouTube.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_02: If you're looking to deepen your understanding of how agricultural markets work, how it's managed, and why markets do what they do, please follow along on the Riskology series.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_02: It's a great place to start.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_02: And if you want to take it to the next step, we'll be hosting a Riskology boot camp at SDSU on February 18th and 19th.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_02: You can register for that on professional agmarketing.com website.
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_02: Thanks again for listening.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see you next time.