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Transcript

NFL Week 18 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: is our Week eighteen. We made it. It's Week eighteen, Tuesday,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: NFL episode. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: the Action Network. We are coming off of a two
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: and three week in our contest. We did not have
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: a Sunday show. We will have one this week. By
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: the way, we will do a very brief recap right
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: now of winners, losers, good calls, bad calls. Our big
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: balls was Arizona plus twelve and a half nailed it.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Our exec decision, Green Bay plus one and a half
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: nailed it. Simon says, New York Giants plus five and
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: a half nailed it. Foxhoel Carolina plus five and a half.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: It's a wonder we finished two and three when we
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: were three and one in the other four picks. On
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: today show. We will get to our Simon says, we
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: will get to our exact decision Thursday. We will finalize
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: our big balls better the week our foxhold, our moneyline parlay,
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: and don't forget this episode, we'll look at the entire
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: board as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: enter in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest. Last week, folks, we are days
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: away from awarding tens of thousands of dollars. Let's bring
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: in my co host, might BFF, my companion, my compadre
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter Heado, Simon, I love. We were
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: right on the cards, we were right on the Giants.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Somehow we did not end up with Green Bay in there.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I've been trying to figure out how that happened. We
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: were wrong on Miami, we were wrong on Seattle, we
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: were wrong on Carolina. You and I just could not
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: agree on games like I like Buffalo, didn't worked out, Okay,
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: you like Seattle. I didn't didn't work out. I like
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: New Orleans. You refused to bet New Orleans on Sunday.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: We both liked Chicago, but ultimately we didn't want to
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: take out Carolina because we had a good number. So
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: last week to get it right.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: It's tough. It was a week of a lot of
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: bad beats in the sense of, you know, I do
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: our money line parlay every week. We had a two
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: pointer in the Lions game that we should have won.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: The money line on the line didn't work out. We
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: had the Giants where Taylor threw just a little behind
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Saquon Bart didn't catch you get a two pointer, and
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: it was just brutal because we hit the Arizona plus
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: five fifty plus five thirty. Yeah, just need one of
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: those other big dogs come through and it it would
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: have been a nice payday, but it didn't hit. You know,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: we had a lot of games we liked, a couple
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: of games we disagreed on, and unfortunately, instead of going
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: three into our four and one, we ended up two
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: and three. And that's that's just how it breaks.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: That has not happened to us much this season. So
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: I'm okay with it happening at the end of the season.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: And look, the fact of the matter is part of me.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: We're gonna go through this. We're not gonna win the contest,
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: but we're not gonna lose the contest. We went two
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: and three this week in the contest. We've got one
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: more week to go, knowing that our fate is kind
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: of sealed, and we didn't embarrass ourselves. I was less
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: stressed than I normally would be on a Sunday as
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three
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  Speaker 1: sixty five. Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's
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  Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
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  Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ioa, Virginia,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Condition restrictions apply. As a reminder, you can
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: catch you every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: For those enjoying on YouTube right now, don't forget to
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: give us a like. Subscribe to the Action Network YouTube
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: page before we get to the pick some housekeeping First
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Off Week seventeen winners roundup through seventeen weeks. Simon you
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: and I are forty eight and thirty seven in the contest.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: Eleven games over five hundred, we have dropped to four
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixty fourth place. We have entered the final weeks. Folks,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: somebody is actually going to win our forty thousand dollars
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: first place prize in six days. We're given away forty
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars to the winner. There are three entries currently
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: at the top with fifty four wins. The contest dropped
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: the too lowest scores back on Thanksgiving. That means those
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: entries are fifty four and twenty one over fifteen weeks
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: worth of picks, seventy two percent against the spread. That's incredible.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: First place may come down to the tiebreaker differential. Congrats
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: to everybody within striking distance. Looking back at week seventeen,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: we just saw seventy We saw just seventy two entries
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: finish five and oh we had a tie for first place.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Congrats to see Jorger twenty seven and d shoal Seth
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: seventy one. Enjoy the cash produces a couple of ward
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: goes to an entry by the name of your mom
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: and them for finishing dead fucking last, and the week
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: seventeen contest that one five, missing the tiebreaker by one
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: hundred and forty yards. Your mom and them, please email
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell at podcasts dot Actionnetwork dot com to claim
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: your non cash prize. Contest is now live for our
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: last and final week the tiebreaker total rushing yards in Buffalo,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: Miami on Sunday night. Good Luck. I can't believe we're
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: doing our last week of the contest. I can remember
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: getting so excited when people were signing up before the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: year began. Second housekeeping, No, don't forget RSVP for the
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Favorites Live show that will be January fourteenth, Sunday, doors
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: open four pm. Shepherd and the Knucklehead Hoboken, New Jersey,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: free entry, free drinks, free hanging with Me and Simon.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Then he and I will go live seven thirty pm.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Recap in the day, looking forward to the following week's
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: playoff games. Also day before January thirteenth, watch Party Me Stucky, Raybond, Kerner,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: The Whole Gang, Nick Giffin two four o'clock January thirteenth,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: also with The Shepherd in the Knucklehead, RSVP, free drinks,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: free entry. Check out the links in the episode description.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: All Right, We're almost there, Simon, I promise freaking CD
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: Lamb had that monster game against the Lions. Heading into
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: the final week of the season, we are subtly sweating
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: our Tyreek Hill nine to one. Bet he's only sixty
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: six yards ahead of Ceed Lamb. Jalen Carter now down
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to minus six hundred at Bet three sixty five. He
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: was minus fifteen hundred for Defensive Rookie of the Year
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: because Will Anderson had three sacks this past weekend. By
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: the way, Brandon Anderson came on the show before the
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: season began and said, take the Texans to win the
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: AFC South. We all laughed at him. About three or
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: four weeks ago, Brandon Anderson on the Action Network podcast
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: that Happens on Sunday nights. Evan Abrams and Joe Gallant
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: are the host of that show. Brandon Anderson has a
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: segment he said Will Anderson is about to break out.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: Since then, Will Anderson, I think, has seven sacks and
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: is now second in Defensive Rookie of the Year odds. Simon,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: what do you think of that? It's pretty cool, right,
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: good for Brandon Anderson open hits, all right, So look,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: first game Saturday, Pittsburgh at Baltimore. Baltimore is now a
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: three and a half point dog. It was four, so
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: it's coming down a little bit. Look, normally this game
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: is one of our favorite bets of the year. We're
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: automatically betting the dog. We're automatically betting the road dog.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: It would be at three. Now everything is screwed up
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  Speaker 1: because Lamar's clinched the MVP, the Ravens have clinched the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: number one seed. We don't know anything about this game.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: We don't know who'll be playing. Why are we betting
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: this game?
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to take an angle, I guess
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  Speaker 2: it's like I'll back Pittsburgh because they're playing for something.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: But Chad just said it usually me and him bet
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  Speaker 2: the dog here, So I'll see what this number settles
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  Speaker 2: on by Sunday. But I can tell you I'm leaning
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: towards the Ravens. It's like, if I get plus four
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  Speaker 2: plus three and a half with their backup and not
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: their starters playing, I can still kind of see the
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: Ravens given Pittsburgh a game here. But yeah, it's right, like,
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: wouldn't put this in contest, would just stay away from
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  Speaker 2: this one. I don't know if I'd make this one
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  Speaker 2: of my five bets because there's just so much unknown
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: right now on Tuesday, all.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Right, I agree with you, and I also just wanted
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: to get to this game, Houston at Indy. This was
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: the first bet I made of the week Houston plus
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: one and a half at the time. It is now
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: moved to Houston minus one. It doesn't really make sense
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: to me they would be underdogs like INDI's defense just
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: hasn't been good in the latter half of the year.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: Nothing impressive about their performance against the Raiders. Gardner Minshew
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: is a threat to lose every game. CJ is always
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: a threat to win. So to me, the Texans were
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: the right side. It's now flipped to them being the favorite.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: Give me your take, yeah, Robson. On the first glance,
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: I immediately thought Colts are great value here and now
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: even more so now they move to a dog. I'll
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: just wait, like, let the public keep betting Houston and
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: let me get the free bump up of a number.
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Houston said it all season. They're just a different team
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: on the road, and as much as I want to
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: back them, you're backing a rookie. Qbing A rookie coach,
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: and I mean, what is this the most impactful game
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: that Houston's had in five six years? Like such a
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: huge game for this franchise, playing a Colts team that
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: they've been a dog and slept on all season. I mean,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: no one's given the Colts their flowers or the credit
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: they deserve. Where it's like there's just so many other
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: storylines they kind of get left in the dust. But
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: like this Colts team, this is incredible, Like this crazy.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: They've made it this far. They're in this spot they
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: should have covered last week for not a stupid back door,
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: which again I think moves this number, like if they
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: would have won that game by ten, Do you think
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: there's still a dog in this position or are they
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: still a minus one minus two favorite against Houston. I
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: think they would be, But I think most of the
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: people are gonna be pissed last week, like me, who
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: backed the Colts their defense, give up some back door,
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: and now they're just off of it. So this will
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: be one of the least beat teams this week. No
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: one's going to be betting the Colts except me and
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: a couple of their pros. So love the Colts here. I
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: won't make the Simon says, I'll let this number keep growing,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: let them become a bigger dog. But Houston, incredible season,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: great team, like the future, so bright. They just historically
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: they're gonna lose this game. They don't win in this spot.
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: Usually the home team in this spot, especially divisionally, now
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: becoming a dog. Yeah, I'm gonna like the Colts in
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: this spot where it's just the public darling of the
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: year Houston, Like people just love them, they love their story.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: You know, they might have the defensive rookie of the
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: year and the offensive rookie year on their team, like.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: This is just and by the way, coach of the year.
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just gonna be the most all hype team
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: in this game. So just wait, wait, wait wait. If
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: you're like me and you want to bet the Colts,
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: I think this number is going to keep going up.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: We are diametrically opposed on this game. I understand what
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: you're saying. I don't see these guys in week what
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: is it, eighteen of the season as being rookies at
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: this point anymore. And I still think you're back in
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: the much worse quarterback who consistently finds ways to keep
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: these games close and a much worse defense that has
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: been trending downward in the latter half of the year.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: And this is applicable for every game this weekend. Home
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: teams in the division since twenty fifteen forty seven percent
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: against the spread since twenty fifteen, So every home team.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: The trend is to bet against the home teams this weekend.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Good thing we can't put this one in the contest.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: Don't bet Houston. People don't that's like the new Beest
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: chalkst squarest thing you could ever do.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: In your own Oh no, no, no, no, Well I
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: would say, now I like them as an underdog.
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: Even then you're stepping in it. But hey, I've been
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: wrong a bunch this year. I could be wrong here,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: but historically you do not want to be playing Houston here.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: That's just that's a bad bet.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Well, I guess we'll find out. Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: is a six point favorite. Right now, I think we
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: got to throw all the stats and trends out the window.
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: Cleveland is already basically announced it's resting its starters. The
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Bengals playing for pride at home, a chance for a
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: winning record. We said before the season began, this was
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: the best division in football. It's the only one. If
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: the Bengals win that we'll have every team finish above
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: five hundred. But that's still a big number in the
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: division against arrival. I don't really have a strong opinion
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: about this one.
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're supposed to take Sincy, but the
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: numbers moved so much, Like it's hard for me to
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: tell people not, you know, to take this number at
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: six when it's like most of us bet to said
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: minus three, minus three and a half. Now it's six.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: So I'll give out since you on Sunday, that's how
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: many be backing. But totally understand if you want to
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: bet it because numbers move so much.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: AFC North was the best division ever in the preseason,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: according to Evan Abrams, highest combined win totals of all time.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it played out that way.
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: It totally played out that way. Tampa Bay and Carolina,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers are probably simon the reason why we
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: didn't go three and two. We get such a good
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: We had such a good number on Carolina at five
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and a half, which is basically the number that it
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: has been for the past month. Anyone they played, They've
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: been by the half point underdogs, and we can't stop
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: betting this team. It's so frustrating. According to Nick Giffon,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: this is a luck game in favor of the Panthers.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: It bounced down this number one from five and a
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: half to five, it's come back up. So look, I
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: feel like the Panthers are the right side here. I
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: don't want to bet the home team in the division.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I don't want to bet the Panthers again. But this
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: is such a big freaking number for a team that
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: we know we have liked at home against a team
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: that I think reached its peak value.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for if we go by the book, you're supposed
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: to take the Panthers here. This is a big number
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: against a Tampa team that's inconsistent. And sure they have
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: weeks where they look incredible and they should smash this
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: Panthers team. I mean, they are better than them in
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: a lot of ways, but we've just seen the Tampa
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: team plays down to the competition. They play these close games.
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I hate that last week where we make
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: these picks and it's like it comes out that the
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Panthers kickers hurt right where the game and You're like, well,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: that's not that big of a deal, but it is
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: because it changes everything. Like they could have kicked the
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: kicked the field goal, it would have been a three
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: to three game or six to three game. Instead of
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: going for it on fourth down and getting Bryce Young
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: broken in half.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fourth and seven, they have to go for from
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: like their thirty yardlold.
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And like, I can't remember a season that's had
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: so many injuries to a position that is the softest
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: of probably any sport. Right, they might be softer than golfers.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: They like, they's just they do nothing, there is no contact.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: How do these guys and not know how to stretch?
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: That's that's literally what they're doing. They're warming up on
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: kicks and pulling muscles in warm ups. It's like these
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: guys in this billion dollar business don't not have stretched
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: before they go out and do their kicks before the game. Like,
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: how many games have we had where the kicker has
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: got hurt in warm ups? It's it's absurd. I really
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: can't believe it. So I fucking hate this Panthers team, man,
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: And like, I know we're supposed to bet it, Chad,
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: but I'm sick of that I think the fans in
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: the show are sick of it, like like the joke,
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: You're always like, well, this is a corner TV game,
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: not in my life, like the Panthers have been a
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: center TV game for over a month. Then I can't
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: take it anymore. I hate betting this team. So yeah,
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: I'm with the fans. They don't want us to bet it.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: I'm sick of betting it. I hope to God nothing
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: changes and I wake up someday morning, but I am
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: I'm trying so hard enough to put this is one
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: of our five listening, I don't want to.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: Do it listening to you talk about kickers. I've seen
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: you go on tilt maybe three times in our lives,
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: and I just saw you go on tilt. You are
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: anger over the kickers inability, and I know it's manifesting
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: from the fact the Panthers had fourth down and had
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: nobody to kick a fucking field goal when they could
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: have made that game a different game, because that particular
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: play was the game changer for us in that game.
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell reminding us right now we are two and
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: five betting on Carolina in the Phase five this year. Unreal,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: this care they have been suckering us. Another team that
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: we have had a hard time when we put on
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: our no bet list the New England Patriots. Right now,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: they have two and a half point home favorites against
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: the New York Jets. The total in this game is
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: thirty one. Could end up being one of the seventh
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: lowest totals, one of the seven lowest totals since nineteen eighty.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing. Division faves, home division faves. We've
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: mentioned this a few times. That is a spot that
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: you want to fade. I don't think this makes our list.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: My instinct here is to bet the New York Jets.
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, me too, But like again, thank god, this isn't
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: a great number. If this was three, three and a half,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: I would be all over this Jets team. I've seen
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of two and a half's out there. It's
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: just there's no real value here. It feels like it
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: feels like this is probably priced correctly, and both these
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: teams have such major question marks at quarterback. You know,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: last week I tried to hedge we have some massive
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: bills futures. I mean, I personally have a ton of
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: money tied to the bills when in their division. So
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: you know, through a decent them out on the Patriots
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: money line last week, and it's like they tried everything
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: they could not to beat the Bills. Like the Bills
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: were begging them to take that game and they couldn't
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: do it. It's just it's crazy. Like again, we talk all
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: the time how good of a coach Belichick is and
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: his defenses. I can't imagine another coach coaching this Patriots team.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: They're just so bad across the board, especially the quarterback position.
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Chad, I want to take the Jets here,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: but doesn't feel like there's any real values. I'll pass
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: on it.
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: The Bills should have won that game by fifty points,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: Like the way in the first in the first quarter,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: what do they have? Three turnover? Yeah, a short field,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: and the fact that the Patriots kept themselves in the game,
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: that they were grinding, that they kept scoring that all
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: of a sudden it was a six point game, like.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: Well, a chance to win at the end. Crazy.
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: It was a testament to Bichi philosophy, which is you
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: play every down, you play every play like it is
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: a long game, and all of a sudden you'd look
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: up and you're within one score of basically ruining the
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Bills season, like the Bill's going in and just getting trapped.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: So kudos to the Patriots for that. Minnesota at Detroit
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: another division game, Another division game about the home favorites.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: We know the Lions well, we assume the Lions might
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: play their starters. They have a very minimal chance to
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: go from three to two in the seedings. They need
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: the Eagles and the Cowboys to lose. The Vikings have
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: a four percent chance to make the playoffs. This line
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: opened at four, got bet up to four and a half,
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: got bet up to five, got bet up to five
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: and a half. It was at five and a half
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: at eleven am this morning and then Simon, you and
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: I were just doing a Green Dot Daily taping and
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: we were talking about game and I made the mistake
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: of not checking the lines for the last two hours,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, it was back down to three.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: So like somebody came in and hit the Vikings pretty hard?
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: Was it you?
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: No? But it was a friendly reminder of how blind
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: you are because the number was on the screen while
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: you were talking. But I know you don't have your
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: glasses on, so you couldn't see a big three just
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: standing in the face and you kept saying, yeah, five
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: five and a half.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: Well, I didn't have it in front of you when
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: we were talking.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: I know. It just cracked me up. Or it's just
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: it reminded me how blind you are where it's like
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: you don't see the three on the screen.
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: Oh you mean, well, like when we were doing the
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: taping they had it on the full screen. That's I
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: didn't even notice this.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, like Chad, you said it though, we're supposed to
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: bet the vikings here like Detroit, we don't have the
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: info yet, but the number has given us the info,
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: isn't it Like the fact that this number has moved
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: so much. Some sharp guys who know people that work
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: for the Detroit they've gotten the info, right. That's what
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: this movement kind of highlights is. Like, Okay, a pro
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: with a really good you know, mole or whatever you
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: want to call it on this Detroit team gave them
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: really good info. They bet that info, and they've moved
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: the number now because the books respect that amount of
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: money that they put down to move it a full
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: two and a half points. Like she had just said,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: it was five and a half. Now it's three's that's
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: a big movement off some professional money. So I have
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: no knowledge about what's going on with the Lions might do,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: but I told chat what I thought they would do
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: is you use this as many bye week. You're stuck
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: like the Eagles and the Cowboys are not losing this week,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: Like I do have one of them to get upset,
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: which we'll talk about, but it just doesn't feel like
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: a smart move for them to really go out there
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and try where it's like you should rest Detroit. They've
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: had had injuries this season. They do have guys who've
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: played all seventeen games, and they should take a week
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: off for all sixteen games, Like it just makes sense
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: for them to take a little money buy a week
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: here because they're kind of stuck in that three spot
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: because of a blown call last week. Like it's it's
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: even more brutal now after the Eagles lost, where it's
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: like these guys could have been playing for that two
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: seed and they still are technically, like Chad said, but
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: I just don't see it happening here, So I lean
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: towards Minnesota. But it's again one of these numbers where
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't take it because we really don't know yet.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Like I would bet the three now just in case
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: the Lions do sit people, but it would be brutal
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: if it's like, Okay, the tray is playing all their
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: guys this number goes all the way up to six,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: six and a half and it's like, well, now I
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: feel like an idiot, so just be careful. I'm betting Minnesota.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: I bet them at three. I just just if you
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: don't want to bet it yet and you want to
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: wait until Sunday so you officially know who's actually playing.
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I understand completely.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Why do you assume that the people who bet this
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: down have information about the Lions versus just playing the
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: five and a half.
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I mean you just saw in Minnesota this past weekend,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: right you bet on Green Bay?
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I did bet on Green Bay.
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: So yeah, like they I think they know what we
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: don't know. Like they know either what's going on the
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: Detroit side or maybe you're right, maybe they know the
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: Vikings are playing Nick Mullens and different info like that.
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: That's why they've moved this number. But this I'm just
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: trying to explain to people that this number is not
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: just moving off. Yeah, these guys love the Vikings here like, no,
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: they got info why they're back in this team here,
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: like they got early info that we don't have.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: All right, we're going to put a pin in that one.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: We'll wait and see how the numbers move over the
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: next forty eight hours. It could be a good sharp calls.
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: I'm sure we'll get some intel and see what's happening
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: with that game. Jacksonville at Tennessee. Tennessee is now a
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: five point underdog, a game that the Jaguars need to
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: win the division. Listen, we have spent a lot of
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: years profiting off of Mike Rabel in this scenario. This
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: is like exactly when we have loved to bet them,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: but to our credit, we have backed away from that
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: the past few weeks because there's only so much bad quarterback,
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: bad secondary, bad defense that Mike Vrabel's magic can overcome. Meanwhile,
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: the Jags actually have something to play for. You want
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: to fade home teams in the division in this spot.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: You know it's funny. I don't really have a lean
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: on this, do you.
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Rabel at Home as a dog. I love
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: Rabel at Home as a dog, and I have all season,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: and I feel like I've had a good rhythm on
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: them this year where I don't back them on the road.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: I just have stayed away from it. Even this past week.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: I think we talked about it on Sunday. It was like, yeah,
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: four plus five, and it's like, I don't want to
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: back Tennessee on the road. They're just a different team
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: than when they're at home. Here they are at home again.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Chad as a big dog, we'd take this like we
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: got to take this number. This is will probably be
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: one of our five. Like it's just too big of
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: a number, especially for a Jaguars team that we know.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: They're not as good as they looked against Carolina, right,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: They've had injuries across the board, but it's just all together,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: they just feel like a sloppy team. I mean, they
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: were eight and three and then they lost well whatever,
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: it was five straight games until last week. Great game
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: for them last week. I think we're getting two free
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: points here on Tennessee. Chad like, again, probably shouldn't make this.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: Simon says, maybe I will. You know, I will make this.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: Simon says, Oh my boy, says, oh boy.
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Simon, we do what Simon says, Tennessee in this spot.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: With their defense, they've struggled against the pass. If it's CJ. Bethard,
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: I'm not too worried about him passing. And then if
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: it is you know, whatever it is, might be the
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: quarterback for Tennessee right now, Like I don't know who
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be. If it's gonna be Will Lewis Ortannehill,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: we really don't know, and honestly really don't care. Like
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: they're both to me bad. Like the difference between Tannel
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: and will Levis is not that big, Like shocking to
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: say that Tanel's falling off that much, but like at
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: least will Levis can take the big plays down the field,
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: which we've not seen Tannehill do. Like Tannell plays like
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: a fifteen year vet, right, he just checks it down
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: or takes the safe play, or he just takes the sack,
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: like that's what Tannell does. So the Jaguars defense with
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen, they looked incredible last week against that Panthers team.
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: I think most defenses this year have looked incredible against
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: that Panthers team. So I will take Vrabel in this spot.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: You know, there's tons of rumors right now that he
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: is leaving after this season that him and the general
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: manager have been button heads and he wants out. If
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: this is it, this is the everything game for him
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: in this team, I could see the guys playing r
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: for him right Like we talk all the time about
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: how much his players love playing for him. They know
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: this is it for Rabel. They know they could play
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: spoiler to this Jaguars team. Give me the five, give
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: me the five and a half. I'll back Tennessee here
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: in the spot.
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: Could be the last game for Vrabel, could be the
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: last game for Derrick Henry. This is very much potentially
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: the end of an era for the Tennessee Titans. So
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: all right, well that's a little bit more of emotional
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: value on the Titans. There. Atlanta at New Orleans Leans. Listen,
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: we aren't Atlanta Falcons podcast. Yeah, okay, we are.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: What we're supposed to do here, and we are.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: An anti Saints podcast except for last week. This is
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: the scenario where you back the division dog. As we've
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: said multiple times today, this is this scenario where you
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: fade Dennis Allen and Derek Carr. Let's go Falcons, dirty
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: birded baby, listen, one hund have to back the Falcons
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: of plus three.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: You know you have to You're so right, we do,
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: and I hate it, like just hate both these teams
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: so much, just sustain for both these teams. But Dad's right,
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: it's just like the Saints last week, Like I should
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: have known better, Atlanta, this is the lowest point of
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: the season, right, Like this is low as it gets
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: this that Bears, that Bears thea and they were so dominated,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: like even from the first touchdown the Bears, how they
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: drove the field. Falcons come down, they miss another field
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: goal maybe at that point, and it just felt like,
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: all right, that's it, it's over. Like this this Bears
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: team is so good, they're gonna keep getting sevens, while
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: this Falcons team, she keeps trying to get threes. And like,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: you know, Arthur Smith, this is probably it, right, Like
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: if he lose this game, it feels like he's probably
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: gonna get fired. So yeah, Chad's right. Like the situationally
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: matchup wise too, like Atlanta matches up well offensively what
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: the SATs want to do defensively. You know, I look
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: forward to reading Evans article about what the trends say
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: with this one because it feels like the trends will
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: back us to here with Atlanta, uh fading Dennis Allen
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: and Derek Carr is a home favorite in this spot.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: But man, does this one not make your stomach turn? This?
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: This one makes your stomach turn. But yeah, Atlanta, Chad's right,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is the team you got to play in this spot,
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: especially at plus three.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's you know what's funny. Doesn't make my stomach
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: turn at all. Like I saw this and I'm like, oh, yeah,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: makes sense. I know, because I didn't even have to
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: put my notes into the script. I didn't even have
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: to do my full sort of volume of research. Instinctively
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: I saw this, I'm like, oh, yeah, we're betting the
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Falcons because we enjoy the pain. As a reminder, for
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the second time, catch every episode of the Favorites live
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: give us a like and subscribe to the Action Network
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: YouTube page. All right, we've done. As Simon says, I
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: owe an exac decision. Tempted. I was very tempted to
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: make it Atlanta. Like last week. I was very tempted
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: to make it Arizona. I pulled back because I think
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: there's one more game that to me feels like an
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: exec decision, not this one though, Dallas at Washington. Washington
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: is a thirteen point underdog. In my notes, here's what
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: I wrote, Fuck this bullshit, we gotta take the Commanders.
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: It's the same as last week, though, I'll only bet
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: them if it's Jacoby Burssett, and thank god he went
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: out and i'd have to bet them. Last week it
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: was Sam Howe, like I had whatever was my original
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: couple bets I had on Washington, but very lucky that
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: it came out whatever that was Thursday or Friday, that
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: Jacoby Brissette was hurt and it was gonna be Sam
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: how because that saved me a lot of money because
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: I did love him in that spot last week. And
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: Chad's right, like, I'm supposed to bet Washington here again,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: but if it's Sam Howe, there's no chance I will
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: not back that kid. He just can't help but turn
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: the ball over at the stupidest times, Like he just
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: puts his team at such a disadvantage. Where early in
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: the season was he was young and exciting, he'd pushed
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: the ball downfield and it was all O yeah. Now.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: Later in the season. It's like, you know, even when
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: he does make it work and push the ball downfield,
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: he's just so consistent, Like on third and four, third
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: and five, I have no faith that he can get
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: me those three or four yards to get me the
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: first down. So Jacoby Brisset's opposite, though, I do have
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: confidence in him. So if it is Jack Cobbersett, I'll
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: back it with Chad. I'll take the thirteen. But yeah,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: enjoy this. Washington's your last game a Ron Rivera, Coobersett,
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: Sam Howe. Like, just hopefully this is just the end
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: of all of it. Blow it all up. You draft
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: a quarterback in the supcoming draft, and this will just
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: all feel like a distant nightmare. But can't can't. Can't
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: tell you how much I hate betting on Ron Rivera
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: in this Washington team. It's just been awful all season.
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: Well, look, the coincidence could be that the Washington Commanders
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: end up picking a quarterback in the first round and
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: the quarterback is Drake May, who replaced Sam Howell in
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. By the way, also nothing to give me
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: any confidence as a fan of a team with an
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: incoming quarterback need in rafting. Drake May looking at the
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: recent history of North Carolina quarterbacks who everyone gets so
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: excited about, Mitch Trubisky, Sam Howe, Drake May. I'm not
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: buying a North Carolina quarterback until the North Carolina quarterback
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: does for North Carolina quarterbacks, which CJ. Stroud did for
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Ohio State quarterbacks.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Or justin fields t B D TBD.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Justin fields TBD. We want fields, we want fields. Did
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: you see that? Did you see that in the game,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: chanting that at the end of the game. I love that.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Dj Moore, the Bears receiver in one of the stories
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: this week, said I know that the executive's box is
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: right above where fans were chanting that. He's like, I
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: know they heard them saying that it's gonna be very interesting.
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: To see the Bears owners and throw their drinks on
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: those fans. So at least some owners have classed in
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: this league. What the what the fuck? Seriously, I know,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: imagine that guy being your boss.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: Holy shit, Hey, Chad, just want to add best if
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: you can hear this, if a billionaire throws a drink
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: on you, you.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Got to act like that shit is acid. I would
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: be writhing.
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: Around on the ground in sheer agony if for no
• 35:19
  Speaker 3: reason one of the world's richest men threw a drink
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: right out. Just want to make sure everyone's aware of that.
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Well, look there, it is funny. There's a there's a
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: newsletter I get called Sportico, and one of the writers
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: for Sportico did a breakdown of the legal possibilities if
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: David Tepper threw a drink on somebody, and they said,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: the thing they need if they want to go after him,
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: they have to have made a complaint with stadium security
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: and the police immediately about the distress or agony or
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: pain or suffering that they endured from having the drink
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: thrown on them right away, and that the longer you wait,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: the less of a case you have. Seriously, you're a billionaire,
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: you own the team, you fired coaches in season three
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: times already. You consistently make the wrong choices. You did
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: it again by throwing a drink on somebody.
• 36:10
  Speaker 4: I will add that while in beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada,
• 36:15
  Speaker 4: in a casino once the Dallas Cowboys scored a touchdown
• 36:19
  Speaker 4: to back door a spread many years ago, and I
• 36:23
  Speaker 4: yelled yes as another guy yelled fuck pretty far away.
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: He then turned and threw a bottle of beer in
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: my direction and it whizzed by me and knocked the
• 36:36
  Speaker 4: drink I was holding out of my hand, and the
• 36:39
  Speaker 4: drink exploded, and then he ran away, and I immediately
• 36:42
  Speaker 4: complained it to security and said I'd like to press
• 36:44
  Speaker 4: charges for those kind of ex same reasons, and the
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: giant security guy in the you know, in the suit,
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: was like, you don't want to do that, and I
• 36:51
  Speaker 4: was like, no, yeah, I know, I get that.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: What are you going to do? And then I got
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: a seven day hotel state paid for so, but you
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: do have to make your comp right away. And I'm
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: just that you didn't knock all my fucking teeth out.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: So important life lessons for all of our listeners.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Betting advice and legal advice at the Favorites, Kansas City,
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: at the Chargers, the Chargers minus one and a half,
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: as Ariana Grande might say, thank you.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: Next, Yeah, like, we're supposed to bet the Chargers here.
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I know the pros have bet it. I bet it.
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: It's up to minus three at most books.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: It's just the Chiefs aren't playing for anything. They're gonna
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: arrest their starters. The Charger has been playing with their
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: backups for like four or five weeks now, So what
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: backups are gonna be more prepared for this game? I'll
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: give that to the Charges. But Chad's right, it's like
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: really hard to make a line on this where I
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: don't know for a fact the Chiefs are City and
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: I'm just going off with other pros and what the
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: line's telling me. And the line is telling me the
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: Chargers aren't playing anybody. You think the I mean, the
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: Chiefs aren't playing anybody. You think the Chiefs starters are
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: bad this year? Wait, do you see their backups? Like
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: that's gonna be really something special. Mahomes is held together
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: that team so much. I think Chad Henny retired, right,
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: I don't even know who their backup is. He didn't, Yeah,
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: so not not sure the backup is for the Chiefs.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I guess you've given so many more reps
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: to stick in this Chargers offense, as bad as they've looked,
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: you assume that's that's where the value was. But you know,
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: we saw last week the Chargers sat Bosa, they sat
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Keenan Allen like they're just they're packed in, they're ready
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: for the offseason. It's really hard to make a number
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: of this game. But you want to know what the
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: pros are doing. The pros are back in the Chargers.
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: Chad just said it. This number was minus one. Now
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: it's what the minus.
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: Three Denver at the Las Vegas Raiders. Raiders are two
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorites. I feel like the books
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: are the books are begging us to take the Raiders.
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah we do. We do need the Broncos to cash
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: out our over eight and a half wins ticket. It's
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: another one where the home team is the favorite. We
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: should made them for the stats. I actually don't have
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: an issue back in Denver in this spot at all.
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, me either. It was a fun week of people
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: bad mouthing Sean Payton. I think someone even called him
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: a thug, which was pretty hilarious. It's it's a business, people, Like,
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: what do you not get about this? It is a business.
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: Russell Wilson he got his money, Like he he put
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: off the greatest scam ever ever. Yeah, like he got paid.
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: He's gonna be able to I don't know if he's
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: going to be, but I assume a team next year.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: I'll pick him up to be a starter. If he
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: does get released, He's gonna be all right, Like, don't
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: don't doubt the Broncos for making this decisions. I think
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: Sean Payne's whole point was, I can put some scrub
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: in there that can pretty much get the same amount
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: of output that was good for Russell Wilson. Now that's
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: not entirely true, right, Russell Wilson's gonna be better than
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: instead of or whoever they're putting back there. But I
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: think his whole point was, you know, I can redo
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: all this, we can get we can let redo this
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: and I can get my own guys in here and
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: rebuild this right and make this a good team. And
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: I don't think he saw a future with Russell Wilson.
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, you go through and watch their plays this year.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: It was very, very basic. It was very college high
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: school up where it's like they basically ran out of
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: four or five formations and they only ran seven or
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: eight plays, and a lot of stuff you hear is
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: that he just thought Russell Wilson was too dumb to
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: learn his playbook and learn all his plays. And that's
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: why I kind of did that. And it's a big deal,
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Like they're the Broncos have made a decision now, right,
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: They're taking Sean Payton's side, They're letting him dictate things,
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: they're letting him run the show. And Chad's right in
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: this position with Denver, I think they're a better team.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, as as fun as this Raiders
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: run has been and how well their defense has been playing,
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: I give a slight edge to this Denver's offense against
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: this Raiders team. So Chad's right, Like with the way
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: the number is, the two and a half, I feel
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: like the books are kind of egging toall on here, right,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: beg us to come in and bet this Raiders team.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: And I'm with Chad like I won Denver. I wanted
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: a three, So two and a half I guess off
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: the man up and take it. But I'm hoping this
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: gets back to three.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah. It's a fascinating story that's going on with Denver
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: right now. And it kind of not that we not
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: that we didn't already know this, but everything Pete Carroll
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: said about Russell Wilson in Russell Wilson's final season where
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: he was getting lamb basted for not letting Russ cook
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: and changing the way they call plays and then getting
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: rid of those I know, right, But it turns out,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: turns out Pete Carroll saw what he saw on the tape,
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: which is what Sean Payton is now seeing on the tape.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: And it's just a different world for Russell Wilson than
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: it was back in the day. And like, look, the
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: Seahawks might not be any better, but they might have
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: been worse and paying a guy a lot more money.
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: So you know, Pete Carroll wins, the Denver Broncos lose,
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: the Sean Payton's will manifest themselves a new future with
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: a new quarterback. In twenty twenty four, we will be suckers.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: We will bet on the Broncos season win total because
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: we love Sean Peyton. Meanwhile, Broncos go ahead.
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: I would say it is incredible in a year where
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: the Chiefs have had an absolute year from hell. They're
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: not that good. Travis Kelsey looks like he's about to retire.
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: They won the division again. It's crazy where it's like
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: we're trying to play the numbers, play the value. It
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: was all sitting there for this Broncos team. And if
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: they didn't have such a slow start, I mean, what
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: a totally different season they would have had, but it's crazy,
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: like I hate it. Like I'm already thinking to our
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: off season Chad, where I'm trying to convince us to
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: take the Chargers with Bill Belichick as a new head coach,
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: and we got whoever the Broncos new quarterback is, and
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: it's just like, please, man, Mitchell, be around and just
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: tell us, like, don't go against the Chiefs. Doesn't matter
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: how they get there, they.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Get there, Simon, We're fucking suckers, we are. I was
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: just going through I was just going through our futures
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: bets before the show, and I think we bet the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: Chargers at like fifty to one or something or twenty
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: five to one to win the Super Bowl because we
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: love the talent on that team and we did in
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: spite of hating Brandon Staley. We are always going to
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: bet the Chargers. We're always going to bet the Broncos
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: going out.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: I'm a change man. I'm a change man.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: No way, no way, I'm honestly.
• 43:37
  Speaker 2: I'm off Herbert. I can't went through our top ten
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: quarterbacks because I like Herbert's great, but would you really
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: take him over Stafford, a guy who I was the
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: only one that have in our top ten last year.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Like no, like Herbert, he completely fucked up this year.
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: So I'm excited to see what he does next year.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: But totally off the Herbert train, I tell you that much.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Well, listen speaking to Stafford. The Rams are three point
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: underdogs in San Francisco. The final week end of the year,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: it opened to two and a half. I'll be honest,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: I thought I thought it would move in the Rams direct,
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: and in the Rams direction given the circumstances. You know,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: the Niners really have nothing to play for the Rams do.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: But this line actually got up to three and a
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: half and then it has been bought back down to three.
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: What is your take on why it moved to three
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: And I'm texting a guy who's really locked in with
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers. He knows all things are going
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, Like, if you're new to the
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: show a couple of years ago, I want a shit
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: ton of money betting Trey Lance to be the forty
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: nine ers draft pick. And this is kind of the leak,
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: Like this guy he knows what the forty nine ers
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: are doing, unfortunately doesn't know what the Rams are gonna do.
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: And so me and I've been texting back and forth.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: I'm just trying to get info in this Rams team
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: because are we sure they're going to play their starters
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: as well? I'm pretty sure they're locked in at the
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: seven or six seed, right and if they win, maybe
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: they get to the sixth seed. Does it really matter
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: for them? Rather than taking this week arrest where I've
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: seen Sean McVay year figure out, he rest his guys.
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, we talk all the time. Is there a
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: better fade in the football than fading the Rams in preseason?
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: They never play starters. Same thing goes when the Rams were,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: you know, not a dynasty, but all those years McVeigh,
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: when they were winning, being the one seed to win
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: their division, they would always rest guys in this final
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: week if they didn't need to play them. So like
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: I'm I want to bet the Rams. I want to
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: fade Sam Darnold because that's who would be playing for
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: this this four nine ers team. That's a nice spot
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: to back of Rams, especially if it's Stafford and the boys.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: But we don't know they got to have any info here,
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: So I just don't want to give you guys a
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: bet here, And I don't really have the full info,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: but yeah, leaning towards the Rams. If it was three
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: and a half, I would make a bet right now
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: without any known NF info, which you had just said,
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: it's that three at most books. Now, I'm just not
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: going to take that number.
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Why do you I was. I was just confused that
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: it moved from two and a half to three and
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: a half, like and it happened in an instant on
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: Sunday night. I don't know if you've heard anything. Did
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: someone come in and bet big on the Niners at
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half? Like it?
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: I heard the Rams might sick guys. That's the thing.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: That's what I'm hearing. Okay, So I think that's what
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: guys are trying to bet that early movement because they're like, well,
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, we know the Rams are, you know, a
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: star and scrubs team, Like they got the four or
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: five star players and the rest of it's just thrown together.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: It's they're one of those teams they have zero depth,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: Like they just sold all their draft picks back in
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: the day, so they don't have any depth. So big
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: deal for a team that's gonna set starters against a
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers team that you know, They've had pretty
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: good backups over the years, right, guys who come in
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: and played pretty well for them, So it makes sense
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: the early line movement. Like I said, though, Chad, I
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: I don't really know what to do with this one.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia at New York Giants. Giants are five point underdogs
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: right now bet three sixty five. These teams just played
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. Giants covered miraculously. Eagles are
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: in dire straits. They need to win to maintain playoff
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: positioning answer the right side. Not a game I feel
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: comfortable with, partially because it just feels like it feels
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: like we got our Giants win this past weekend against
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: the Rams and what's that? What?
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: No? I just I don't know why I thought you
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: were gonna make us your EXEC decision. This just feels
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: like a Chad game. I can't believe you're not loving
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: The Giants at plus five. Yeah, I'm not loving it.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: It wasn't in my EXAC decision. Final two. My final
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: two for exec decision were the Rams, but I wanted
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: to hear more information and then one that's coming up
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: that will be the exact decision.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the the Eagles played the Giants. They played Dane
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: dey Vito, and that to me was a big advantage
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: to them. When we saw Taylor last weekgainst the Rams,
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: he is so much better than the Vido. Right, He's
• 47:54
  Speaker 2: such a more comparable quarterback. And the Eagles might be broken,
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: like you might have just saw their whole spirit and
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: will get completely broken in that game where I wasn't
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: worried when they all those losses they had had, like
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: didn't didn't worry me, right because it's just like that's football,
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: like you like you make little mistakes like things like that,
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: those things happen. Arizona played so much better than them
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: in that game. They dominated them that game. The Eagles
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: were incredibly lucky to be up twenty one to six
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: at halftime where they're outpossessed, they're out rushed everything, like
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: they're just their defense is so broken right now. And
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: they tried to turn it to Matt Patricia, a guy
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: who gave up whatever that was, forty one points when
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: he was a DC to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl.
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: Like this guy has never recovered from that. Patricia has
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: been broken now for seven eight years. Like the guy
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: just even if he gets it right for one week,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: it all comes back like he's just not well prepared.
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: He doesn't know to scheme up against teams, and everything
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: he did against Arizona was embarrassing. Like the Arizona coached
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: OUTCOI in the sense that they had a weird look
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: where they would drop Reddick into coverage if a certain
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: look for Arizona had an offense, and when Arizona figure
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: it out, they just ran the pretty much the same stop,
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: like not the same scheme, but basically they ran the
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: same play over and over again because instead of having
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: Redick rush them, they had him drop into coverage. Because
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: Matt Patricia just is just a dinosaur like he runs
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: his defense. He's like, well, I'm not gonna I'm not
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: gonna change what I'm running here, And that's what happened.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: At half time. They go into half time, they go, well,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: just because we've got up three hundred yards doesn't mean
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: I need to change the defense. Like we're holding them
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: to six points. This is working. They got dominating in
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: the second half. So Eagles just feel like a broken team.
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: We're catching five right now. This will be the most
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: bet most teased team. I think the public will come
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: in they kind of have the same thought of, you know,
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: the Eagles are playing for something here, the Giants aren't.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: And we talk all the time chat we'd like playing
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: the spoilers right, especially in this final week, especially in
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: the division. Yeah, so the the only thing I hate
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: is this number probably should be six and it's not
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: because of that Eagle's loss and what ch had just said.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: The Giants probably should have beat the Rams, and I
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: think a lot of people know that where it's like,
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: you know, Taylor, I think people forgot how good this
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: guy can plain, how well he is. So we got
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: away with it last week with the Giants, we stole
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: that one where people really wouldn't checking them out. This
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: week they are on it. But that's I'm not gonna
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: let that scare me off here. Like I like the Giants.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: My only hope is I'm gonna talk a couple of
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: book makers over the next couple of days, like I'm
• 50:29
  Speaker 2: hoping that Eagles are like you know, just what the
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: Rams were last week, all the bets, all the teasers,
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: everything's tied to them. That's that's when I know the
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: value will go up on the Giants, where this would
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: go from five to six. Like, we just need more
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: public money to come in on this Eagles team, So
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: grab the five. Now. I didn't make the sigm says
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: just the case this does go up, but I would
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: grab the five now it does, just in case it
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: does drop down to four and a half four. But
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: I do see the public coming in pretty heavier on
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: the Eagles.
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah, right now, all the tickets about seventy percent of
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: the tickets on the Eagles, so it should move in
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: that direction. There are some five and a halves out
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: there if you can find them, so it's worth so
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: we're doing a little bit of shopping. But my hesitation
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: on this game was exactly what you just said is
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: I feel like I got away with it, and we
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: like to bet before the peak of the market, and
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like we got peak giants last week against
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: the Rams and almost got that money line this week.
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: It feels like the cat might be out of the
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: bag inflation deflation with both of those teams, which is
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: why not that I'm still putting it on the list,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: Like we're building a nice little list here for Thursday.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: My exact decision Chicago Bears plus three at the Green
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: Bay Packers.
• 51:42
  Speaker 3: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: Are you having your orders? Text your executive decision.
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: The line open three and a half. I bet the
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: Bears at three and a half. It's moved to three.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: I think because of my bet. It was in inflated
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: from the second it opened, because the Packers won so
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: convincingly on Sunday night. But don't forget, and you and
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: I talked about this and the taping we did for
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: Green Dot Daily. This Packer's defense is still terrible. There's
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: not the reason why people were hesitant to go in
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: on them. The reason why you and I discussed there
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: was hesitancy to put him in the final five is
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: because of how bad this defense is. Only now this
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: defense is actually going against a much more talented team
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: across the board, especially at quarterback with Justin Fields, who,
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: when he's not turning the ball over is playing lights
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: out and he's going to be going against the defense. Look,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the Falcons rush defense is top five in the NFL.
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: The Packers are not tie that top five anything in
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: the NFL defensively, And then you look at the defensive
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: side of the ball for the Bears. Everyone likes talking
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: about the Vikings such a good defense because of their blitz,
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: but that plays to Jordan Love's strengths as a quarterback.
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: What the Bears do actually is a better scheme for
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: defending against Jordan Love because they don't blitz, they get
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: the pressure worth they're front four and defensively they've been
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: so good with Montes Sweat, like their linebackers. TJ. Edwards
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: especially has been much much better since they got sweat.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: So I got all that going for me, plus I
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: got wanting to fade the home fave in the division.
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Give me the Bears EXAC decision.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and Chad knows I love this play. I love
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: the Bears here. If you're a Bears fan, this is
• 53:35
  Speaker 2: give me the dream scenario. This is as close as
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: you're going to get to a true playoff game, playoff atmosphere,
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: and you get to see what you got in the
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: fields for real here like this is a big deal
• 53:46
  Speaker 2: for fields, Like it really does feel like this is
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: what's going to decide his future with this team. Where
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: is he gonna be shipped off to a Lanna for
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: a second round pick or a first round pick, or
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: are we going to trade down to get him Marvin
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: Harris Junior and built around Fields, because this this really
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: is it Like Justin You've beat up on bad teams
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: at home. Now you're on the road against a divisional
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: foe which is pretty evinly matched against you, even though
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: I think Green Bay has a better record. But it's
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: like you know, coin flip games they won, like these
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: are pretty much same teams. This is a huge deal
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: for Justin Fields and he knows it. I think the
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: guys playing around him, like you just talked about DJ,
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: more guys who like him. I mean everyone on the
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: team he talked who loves Justin Fields and they want
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: to play hard for him, and I think they know
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: that how much this game matters to him in his future.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: So it's all there, like the the the pressure, the
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: you know, both teams like Jordan Love needs this to
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: make the playoffs, right, It's just this is this is
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: the as good as it gets if you're a football fan.
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: Where it's like two young quarterbacks who are gonna pretty
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: much define their future through one game. You know, Jordan Love,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: he makes the playoffs in his first season. How you
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: not elated as a Green Bay fan? Like you you've
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: done it again. You got a guy who threw over
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: thirty touchdowns in his first season, Like it's all right there.
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: So Chad's right where the Green Bay side is probably
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: going to be the sharp side.
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: It feels like the public will come in on the
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: Bears here, just in the sense that why are the
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: Bears catching three three and a half? That was crazy?
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: Like that was smart by you to hit that number
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: because that was way too big. Even three feels too
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: big like this to me, I got this smilele of
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: two one and a half. I don't really know what's
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: going on here. I don't know why we're getting these
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: extra points here, so little weary of it, But I'm
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: with Chad. I just love this matchup so much for
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: the Spars team. They've been a different team this last
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: seven eight weeks. We said every week we backed them,
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: we said the books have not caught up to the
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: Spars team. It's been true, like every week we back them.
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: They've been undervalued for the most part these last couple
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: of weeks. So this is the team that needed to
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: learn how to win. Chad, we talked about down the Bears.
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: They were a good team, but they didn't know how
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: to win. We've seen these last couple weeks. They've learned
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: how to win. They know how to close these games out.
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: So I'm going to back this ris team at plus
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: three in a game that should be closer to a
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: pick rather than plus three. I'm with Chat on his
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: exec decision.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Seven and five. The last twelve games are the Chicago Bears.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: All the reports that Matt Eberflus is likely to be
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: the coach next year, I don't know if there's any
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know if there's anything to glean from that
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: in terms of does that also mean they like the
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: stability and want to keep justin field? I think those
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: questions are still up in the air. Producer Tito mocking
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: me in the chat, reminding me that I have traded
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: and kept justin fields five or six times so far
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: this season. That is my right as the executive in
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: charge of the Chicago Bears decision making for the fans.
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: With my direct pipeline to senior executive management at the Bears,
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: they will be taking my input seriously. Also, Tito was
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: reporting that no Christian McCaffrey for the forty nine ers,
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: per Mike Shanahan, breaking news, so there is that as well.
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Arizona, Arizona's a three point under. I don't
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: want to talk about this game.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: No, I want to take Seattle. But yeah, I guess
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: Chad's right. If you get Seattle two and a half,
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: you got to take that number. Like Arizona, that was
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: an incredible game against the Eagles. They're not that good.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: We know they're not that good. We watch Arizona this season.
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: It's really Kyler making magic. The fearyar is. You know,
• 57:27
  Speaker 2: Seattle can't stop the run. If I would have known
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: they werenna give them one hundred and fifty yards in
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: the first half against Pittsburgh Russian, I probably would have
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: stayed away from Seattle. And that's a big deal. Are
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: they going to learn how to tackle in a week now?
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: They're facing James Connor, one of the best running backs
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: in football this season, a guy who dominated the Eagles
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: in that game. I mean, he really was as good
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: as Kyler was. James Connor was a difference in that game.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: The guy was just incredible against the Eagles. So totally
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: get the hesitation from Chad. White doesn't want to do it,
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: but technically the value here to me is on Seattle.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: I got this my three and a half for Seattle
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: there's one book showing minus two and a half. I'll
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: take it. But man, am I fucking pissed at the
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: Seattle team. It's just it's just hard to back when
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: it's just they can't stop the run and that's a
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: big deal against an Arizona team that needs the run
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: to establish the pass. And you know, Chad's right, I
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: doubt this is going to make one of our five
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: because now that I'm thinking about it's just like there's
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: there's five or six other games I'd rather take than
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: So I got seven games on our list right now. Yeah,
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: I'd rather take than this one, including games where we
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: don't even know who's playing.
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: That's fair, No, I just that was that was a
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: really pissed poor showing by.
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: The Seattle That was that was so painful to watch
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: and know that we had it in the contest. The
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: only thing that kept me saying watching that game was
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: knowing that I had Pat Fryermuth over two and a
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: half receptions which Sean Kerner had given out and we
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: got there with like minutes left in the game of
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: actual clock time. Early in the second half, I washed
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: like I knew we were not winning at that after
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: the first Steelers drive, when Najee Harris could basically do
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted to do it was
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: it was really a pathetic showing on tackling Pete Carroll
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: leading with his team to just tackle on the sidelines
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: was just sickening if you really had a lot of
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: money on that game.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: Thanks Jain.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: Never made sense to Simon Listen. We entered a brand
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: new year, but to keep delivering the best podcast we can,
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: I need to ensure you're keeping up on the latest news.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to ask you just one time if
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: you can name the fastest growing ticketing app in the
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  Speaker 1: u United States.
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  Speaker 2: Game Time.
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  Speaker 1: Game Time, that's our sponsor. I love game Time for
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number Two, I
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  Speaker 1: You all right gave me the week. Sunday Night Football
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at Miami Miami. Let me just make sure I'm
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: looking at the latest lines here. Miami is a three
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: point underdog at home number one. I want to think
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: about waiting for this total to keep climbing. It opened
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: at forty eight and a half, it got up to
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: forty nine and a half. Now at fifteen and a half.
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: It will be a luck under. Just keeping track of that.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: It will be a luck under. Both of these teams
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: really good in pass coverage. Miami's defense sneaky good overall
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: according to PFF, just behind San Francisco and Baltimore. Hey,
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: they've lost some players, including Bradley Chubb. This past week.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: You've pointed out the Bills have been leaning more towards
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: a run heavy offense the past few weeks since Joe
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Brady took over his offensive coordinator. Buffalo has had Miami's
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: number past three games, beating him all three in Buffalo,
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: though last time they played in Miami, Miami won by two. Simon,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: It's a tricky one, very tricky.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 2: And you remember that game well because the Bills ran
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: eighty plays to the Dolphins what forty plays and they
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: still lost that game. And some extreme heat. It won't
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: be that. It will be perfect weather, nice little fifty
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: sixty degrees down in Miami, lovely little January game. I
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 2: hate it. Me and Chad or we love the Bills,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: and we're supposed to take the Bills here, but Chad's
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: I think Chad's leading towards the Dolphins, which is going
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: to be the professional side, and I'm going square. I
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 2: guess I'm going with the public on the Bills. And
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: it just feels like the injuries the Dolphins have had
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 2: to their defense are a huge deal. And then you
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: take away Moshert and Waddle. I mean, that's another big
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: deal to that offense. That Like again that Ravens game,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: they're up seven nothing I think, and it was third
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: and sixteen and they had you know whoever the Ravens
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: running back was, it might have been Hill catches this
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: little pass to the backfield and takes up the field
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: and gets the six or seventeen yards. And as soon
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 2: as that happened, I knew our Dolphins bet was dead
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: and it was just a team that they've gotten away
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: with it all season. Despite the numbers of the they
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: say about their defense, I do not think their defense
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: is good. And I think we should have realized that
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: when that Tennessee team was able to drive the field
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: and score fourteen points Will Levis in three or four
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: minutes at the end of that game, where it's like,
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: you know, this team does have some weaknesses that they
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: be able to cover up because they had such a
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: talent on that defense. Now you know they got three
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: or four huge injuries to that defense. I have to
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: account that where the Bills team they did make moves.
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: I mean Roster Douglas had another pick last week. Like
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: the move that Bills have made have worked out for them.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: And I would say to anyone out there that followed
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: me and Chad and a decent amount of money on
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: the Bills to win this division, if you have anything
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: better than four to one or three to one, you
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: have an easy head here. You have an easy hedge
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: on Miami. Now they're a dog, you know Chad said,
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: or maybe those agree on daily that they're plus one
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: fifty or plus one six or something like that to
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: win the division. So you have an easy hedge. You
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: can just do that and not sweat this game at all.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: If if you want, you can basically what we did
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: last year, which is you take whatever you want to
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: do one third or one fourth year bet put it
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: on Miami at plus three. If this game lands on
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: two or one and the Bills win, you have both bets.
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: Like that's the dream Snario, That's why we make these
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: kind of hedge bets. So my hedge bet, I will
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: be taking Miami plus three. But personally betting wise and
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: what I'm looking at, I'm betting the Bills here. I
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 2: like the Bills in the spot. It's just it's all
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: there for them. Like last week they had such a
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: bad week, and it was because I think they were
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: looking ahead to this Miami game. It just felt like
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: that kind of spot for them. You know, that's the fears.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: Is Josh Allen going to burn us in this game?
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: Is you go to turn the ball over, give Miami shortfields,
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: and that's how Miami could win this game. But I
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: just I don't think Miami can overcome all these injuries
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: to their offense and defense. It's just it's just too
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: much at this point. So I'm going to back this
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 2: Bills team.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: All right, this is one I want to give us
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: a lot more time on Thursday. I do think there'll
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: be some sharp calls here and I think maybe we'll
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: get some news over the next forty eight hours about
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: that will inform our decision making. But look, this is
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: the biggest game on the board. It'll be the Sunday
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: night game. There are I want to dig deeper into
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: the hedge opportunities because we have been talking about the
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: Bills as a potential AFC East Division winner. They got
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: back day Kwon Jones. You talked at defensive line, you
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: talked about Rasoulo Douglas, who had another pick in the
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: in the Patriots game. So this is a different Bills
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: team than the one that was struggling in that window
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 1: shortly after the London game and before they got Rastullo Douglas.
• 1:05:57
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