Good News About The Midterms: This Looks Better Than The Data Looked In 2018
The Downballot ran the numbers on 110 special elections since January 2025. Democrats are outrunning Kamala Harris's 2024 margins by 12.5 points on average and Joe Biden's 2020 numbers by 8.4. That implies a roughly 12 point environment in House and Senate races, slightly better than what the same measure showed heading into 2018, when Democrats gained 40 House seats. Brandon Dukes just flipped Pennsylvania's 12th, the 31st legislative flip of the cycle. Democrats have won every one.
Ron Brownstein's piece for CNN gets at the other half. The risk to Republicans is subtraction rather than…
The skinny
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