Latest / Cards & Categories / Ep. 74 : Draft-And-Hold Strategies with Derek VanRiper

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Ep. 74 : Draft-And-Hold Strategies with Derek VanRiper · Cards & Categories

• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome everybody to episode seventy four of Cards
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: and Categories. I'm Mike Coolard from Rasball, joined by a
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: very special guest. This time we have Derek Van Riper
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: from The Athletic and host of the Rates and Barrels
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: podcast DVR. I'm gonna call you DVR because that's what
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: I know you as in my head listening to your
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: podcast all the time. How are you doing today? And
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: welcome to Cards and Categories here.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: Hey, thanks for having me. Mike doing well. Excited to
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: be talking to you. Love love the combination of these
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: two things. It's kind of a brings it back to
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: the under the Radar days where we'd occasionally get into
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: cards or we'd be having a conversation about a player
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: and Nando would sort of trail off and come back
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: into conversation like, Oh, I just bought a PSA ten
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: Joe Ryan on eBay because of you DVR. Like you know,
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: just one of those things would happen. So I love
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: merging these two things that I like into one conversation.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Yes, I appreciate it that. I think it's been a
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: great through line here on this podcast as we kind
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: of combine both things and especially during the off season,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: as you know, when you get into the Dole drums,
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: post World Series and before that kind of first wave
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: of arbitration, pre arbitration, all the the different kind of
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: free agent maschinations that are out there. It's great to
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: be able to fall back onto baseball cards because that's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: also the prime time of baseball cards in November December,
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: getting everything out for the holidays. But that is I
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: like to that's great because I loved that podcast that
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: you hosted with Nando Dafino, and I especially think about
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: lots of conversations that you've had with Ian Cohn over
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: the years on that podcast that it is guided a
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: lot I think of my fantasy playing over the years,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: just because of all the insights that they had, So
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: that is I'm very honored.
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: It was fun too, just because I think it was
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: three people who genuinely play the game differently, so there
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: was something. I think there was always something we could
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: each learn from each other, and like non No in particular,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: I think was less similar to Ian and I than
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Ian and I were to each other. So working with
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: non No and then doing that show with him, I
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: think it was coloring outside the lines right, Like I'm
• 2:25
  Speaker 2: a rule follower. I'm more rigid to projections and have
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: this more concrete system of beliefs, and I think having
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: someone that pushes back on that and dismantles that and
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: does it in a fun way, it's good for you
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: if you're that type of person. I can be a
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: little tightly wound sometimes.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Yes, and it's great to get Like the insights that
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Ian would always have in terms of mound presence and
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: just body language and stuff. I think has been really helpful.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: As somebody who watches a lot of ball, like, why
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: not take advantage of that and get away from those
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: projections that are in there every day. So I think
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: we'll get into a little bit that with some of
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: our conversation that we're gonna cover. We're in the main
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: portion of this podcast, so what we're gonna do is
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: it is January fifteenth as we're recording this, so we
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: are right in the prime of opening of draft season. Obviously,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: we still have catchers and pitchers reporting here just within
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: a month, and a few free agents still sitting out
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: there on the market. So for the true Sikos out there,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: we're starting to get into the fifty round draft champions
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: and the Gladiator drafts, because you know what, you don't
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: have all the information anyways, might as well just kind
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of lock yourself into a bunch of really weird, deep
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: decisions of these leagues where you are trying to predict
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: what happens all season. In mid to early January, I
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: think that's mostly kind of what's running on NFBC right now.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: So I figured it'd be a good time to kind
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: of dive into conversations on different strategies we might be
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: taking in these fifty team dcs and what sorts of
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: players we might be targeting a little bit more than
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: your traditional five x five rod that you're gonna approach
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: here with fab leagues and stuff like that. But before
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: we get into that conversation, we do have some major
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: news on the card front. So this week they did
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: release from TOPS the design for twenty twenty five Series one.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: The flagship design will carry through from series one, Series two,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: TOPS update TOPS Chrome. We're gonna see lots of it.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: People who are familiar with this podcast will know that
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: I have not been a fan of the twenty twenty
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: four design, So this twenty twenty five design is a
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: nice kind of I think refresh to harken back to
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: some of the eighties design elements, some of the most
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: recent kind of twenty twenty one, twenty twenty designs, and
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: there's just lots of great little bits and bobs in it.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: If you are listening to this podcast, certainly go into
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: the show notes. There's a link to the pre order
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: for Top series one that just dropped today, I believe,
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: so you can get in there, order your hobby boxes,
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: order your jumbo boxes. Order. They also have these new
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: makeup boxes that are available on tops dot com, So
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: lots of great options in there. We'll get into more
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: discussion as that set becomes released and we get checklists
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: and everything like that. But because this is a little
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: bit of a cards and Fantasy Baseball podcast DVR, I
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: figured we'd see what is your favorite design or card
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: that has ever kind of like come through and you've
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: collected within your lifetime. Yeah.
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: I think my favorite card is classic and probably one
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: people have answered many times the questions like this, and
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: it's the kanger of your Junior eighty nine upper deck
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: Rookie card. I think the reason is, I mean I
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: was born in eighty four. I started collecting cards probably
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: when I was seven years old, so like the really
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: early nineties, and that was always the really elusive card.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: And even back then, I felt like it was hard
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: to get packs of eighty nine upper Deck, like relatively speaking,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: everything else you could get all the time, So I
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: never even really had chances to get one out of
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: a pack. You know, years and years went by, and
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: I think when everybody kind of had a call back
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: to collecting during the pandemic, when we were stuck at
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: home early twenty twenty, that's when I finally just jumped
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: in got one on eBay and I was like, all right,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: this is my card. This is the card I've wanted forever.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I'm a big kid now, so I can afford to
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: just chip in and get one of these. It's like
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: a PSA eight, it's not without a ten. It didn't
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: cost that much. It's one of my favorite cards just
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: because it was something I wanted when I was a
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: little kid and it could never get my hands on.
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: I think the design I like the most is one
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: that I never ever had a chance to collect outside
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: of just going after individual cards. I don't even have
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: that much from it, but it's the nineteen eighty three
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Tops design, right. I liked that it's got the headshot
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: in the lower corner, right, it's got the different color
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: banners around the card too. I think they're visually kind
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: of a lot more interesting than a lot of the
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: eighties stuff. And I think I came really back around
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: on that design when it was part of the anniversary stuff.
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: There's an anniversary set that has tawny Akunya and Sodo
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: Rookies all in it, and it's great. And speaking of
• 7:03
  Speaker 2: the Vian Kahan, I think I talked him into actually
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: buying that set at the time, for I want to
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: say he bought it more for the Sodo Rookie because
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: it was underpriced, and it was before Otani became this
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: version of Otani, so that set's got to be up
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: quite a bit in value. But the visual the visual
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: design on that one especially is just a That's a
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: set that I really like. If you said, hey, you
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: could have a set framed and hanging on your wall,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: eighty three tops would be really high.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: On my list. Yeah, that's a great choice. And it's
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: got the classic Ryan Sandberg and Cal Ripken cards from
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: that set, and they harkened back to that a little
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: bit with the twenty twenty three design. When that's got
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: the ad Lee and Gunner Henderson Rookie cards in it
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: where it has the little picture down in the bottom corner.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: That yeah, great choice. That that's the eighty three is
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: a great design. And you are right that that Otani,
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: it looks great in that from his Rookie set. That
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: actually part of like I also got back into cart
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: collecting in twenty twenty just like everybody else, and Otani
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: was a big portion of that that I was able
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: to buy a large lot of Rookie cards. That is
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: treated me generously over the years. I would say, so
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: it's a that's a great choice. If, like I said,
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: we've got the link to the pre order in the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: show notes, I guess I should have probably also I
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: always forget this in terms of if you are listening
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: to the podcast, make sure to rate and review us
• 8:29
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• 8:32
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• 8:37
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• 8:41
  Speaker 1: out like the back end of that handle. You just
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: tell people your front handle. It's it's confusing, right.
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: I have been saying it as dvrbsky dot Social, and
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't know, Like I feel like if
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I just say I'm DVR, I'm blue Sky, I feel
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: like people would figure it out. So that's one of
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: my small frustrations with them. I'm glad more people are
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: using it. It has been a more pleasant place to
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: hang out for the last couple of months. Hopefully it
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: continues trending that way as more and more people show
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: up over there. But yeah, the nomenclature needs to be
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: tightened up a little bit, yes, exactly.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: So you can find the podcast there. You can find
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: me there at m cool seven. You can email us
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: at cards categories at gmail dot com if you have
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: anything to reach out to us about. And then yeah,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: if you are looking for tools to help you with
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: your fantasy baseball preparation here for twenty twenty five, certainly
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: look at rasball dot com. We've got lots of great subscriptions,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: lots of great tools. We last week in our pod
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: went over the player Raider and some of the great
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: things that have been developed over the years that certainly
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for streamers things like that throughout the season,
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: can't go wrong with rasball. I know that you guys
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: on rates and barrels, like using the player rader a lot.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: So is there any tool maybe from rasball that DVR
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: that like you get the most value out of or
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: really have the most enjoyment from.
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: I think the weekly projections and being able to look
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: at those in an NFBC splits in particular are a
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: great feature. I mean, I think for people playing that
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: format for the first time, or even people that have
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: done it for a while. One of the trickier things
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: to grasp is just do you play the guy that's
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: going to start three games or do you like who's
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: less talented than someone who's going to start two? Like,
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: how do you make that choice? Quantifying that choice is
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: really difficult. It's not always intuitive because the value gap
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: and the players fluctuates a lot based on who those
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: players are. And I think you become a more sharp
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: player putting numbers to it then trying to do it
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: purely by feel. And for a long time it was
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: all feel for me. And I've done okay in the NFBC,
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: but certainly haven't done as well as I would have
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: liked you for as much time and effort as I
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: put into it.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I totally agree. As the writer of the
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: weekly fab article, it's really helpful to see those projections
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: on a weekly basis to see which players are worth
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: the most because of Honestly, Rudy also incorporates environmental factors
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: obviously on top of part factors, which really helps that.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: You will notice that if there's a storm system that's
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: like Bruin in the West coast and you give it
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: a couple of days, it'll change the projections a little bit.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So it's really helpful to stay on top of everything
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: with up to date information. So with that, let's turn
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the corner into our main discussion on fifty round DC's
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: and gladiator drafts they're running on NFBC. Again, I thank
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: you for joining me here because I figured I would
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: rope you in because as somebody who is more of
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: the Waiver Wire article person at Rasball, I'm focused on
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: leagues that involve lots of NCASON management and how to
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: navigate that. So actually I joined my first gladiator drafts
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: in fifty round DC at First of Arizona this past fall,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: where we were drafting side by side for the fifty
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: round DC. I'm in Ino Sarrus's league, which was it
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: felt good I snaked him on David Peterson late in
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the draft and got an audible grown for him in
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: that like, that's maybe one of the highlights of my
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: entire fantasy baseball career. That it's a great time. But
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: I figured, given your experience with these very deep drafts
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: where you aren't allowed to make moves during the season,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: so that's very important here that you have to find
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: players where you can roster them for the entire season
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: and try to make use of them. So you're trying
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: to navigate injury risk players who might have issues with
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: sticking on the major league roster, players who might be
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: having platoon splits, and then on top of that, you
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: can't make any trades in these leagues either. That you
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: have your roster, you roll with it from there. I
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: thought it'd be good to bring you in for some
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: insight on how to manage these over the draft season
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: and kind of what sorts of players and strategies we
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: might be taking in these drafts. So what is kind
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: of your overall experience with these fifty round dcs and
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: these gladiator drafts, and what do you think makes them
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: more maybe not enjoyable all the time, but like what
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: stands out to you compared to like your standard roto
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: league with fab moves and everything else.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, well, well think I'll say at the top, I
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: haven't played any Gladiators yet. It's just no bench. Yeah,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Draft and Hold has a bench, Gladiator doesn't. If you've
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: played Draft and Hold, you at least understand the concepts
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: of Gladiator. And I think Gladiator is really cool.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: It's nice.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: It's a little quicker too. Like I'm a sicco, as
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: you alluded to earlier, the drafts that goes like I
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: will start doing these drafts in November, usually like one
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: at a time. I'm not the extreme sicko where I've
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: got like ten of them going at once. I don't
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: have the patience for ten of these at once. So
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: my overall approach is to be much more risk averse.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: I think when you think about different categories, you see
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: some odd things in these leagues without in season pickups,
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: mostly that closers, the established closers, are hyper inflated. So
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: one of the first early round decisions you have to
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: think about a little bit differently is how interested are
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: you in top end closers. Are you comfortable taking closers
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: in rounds three, four, and five. It's not something you
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: necessarily do as often in leagues with moves. I know.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: It's something that I was on a panel with Rudy
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: once talking about draft strategy, and it's clear to me
• 14:33
  Speaker 2: Rudy is much more of a weight on saves player
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: in a typical league. But you don't necessarily have that luxury.
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: You can try to play it that way. You can
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: try to take a bunch of well placed, opportunistic shots
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: in the late in the middle rounds and maybe come
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: away with enough saves to be competitive. But it's just
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: thinking about how you're going to handle that category as
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: part of your early round strategy that's a lot different.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: And then just your risk tolerance across the entire player pool.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: I think my willingness to draft players in draft and
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: hold or gladiator leagues that are already hurt and rehabbing
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: significant injuries that will possibly impact them into the start
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: of the season goes down considerably because I have a
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: lot less control over handling how I replace them. You know, yes,
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: you get the draft, your bench, and draft in the hold,
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: but even like a Ronald Lacunya junior, I'm much more
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: likely to take the risk on Acunya in a league
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: where I have fab to rely upon, because if we
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: find out he has setbacks, maybe I didn't do enough
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: to even manage that.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: At least if you.
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: Find that out in a league with moves, you can
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: go ahead and make those adjustments. So I think that's
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: for me is like the biggest consideration is making sure
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: I don't walk into situations where guys are clearly working
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: back from massive injuries, pitchers coming off of Tommy John
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: where we haven't seen them come back yet. That's a
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: group that over the years I've really started to move
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: away from in this format, thinking of one I did
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: step on a rake accidentally in the league you mentioned,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: the Arizona Fall League draft. I took zach Netto in
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: the eighth round. I thought it was value, but as
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: before the Angels told us that he had shoulder surgery. Yeah,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: and he's exactly the kind of player that, as much
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: as I like him, felt like I got a good
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: value at that time. I probably wouldn't draft him in
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: this format because they didn't even specify the nature of
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: his shoulder surgery. So it's a major injury. We're assuming
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: that may or may not allow him to play by
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: opening day and could easily impact his per game numbers
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: even after he comes back because we know so little
• 16:27
  Speaker 2: about it. Players like that, to me become almost no
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: fly players, even at steep discounts, because you're going to
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: pick up injuries along the way, so you really don't
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: want to build a foundation that's already partially broken. Of course,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: there are exceptions to every rule, but that's generally the
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: biggest shift that I make playing these formats.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I would agree, And certainly I'm glad to
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: hear your take on closers there because in both my
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Gladiator draft and my DC draft, I took Emmanuel class
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: early because I think he's a good example of, like,
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: if you're looking for saves and somebody who can set
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: in a lot of saves pretty easily, as well as
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: not having to worry about his job you're gotta have,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: you're gonna have to shop at that really high end
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: of the market. Otherwise, especially given the way that the
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: closer market's shaping up right now, you're just throwing darts
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: all the way across the board, which I think, at
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: the end of the day, can also be a useful strategy,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: just because you're also picking up the good era and
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: whip numbers, and you know, you look at I think
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: also like a lot about Tyler Holton in the season
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: that he put up with the wins and just the volume.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be lots more players that go
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: that route in terms of just overall roster construction. The
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: other consideration is just kind of like your mix and
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: match of hitters and pitchers, and especially catchers, because you're
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: gonna burn through catchers pretty quickly, and so what what
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: do you aim for there in terms of your your
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: balance of especially focused on fifty teen or the fifty rounders,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: because obviously with the Gladiator draft you have your twenty
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: three spots and that's it. With the fifty rounds, how
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: many pitchers you look in at? How many hitters are
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: you looking at? And then how many catchers of those hitters.
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: Usually my teams end up close to twenty eight hitters
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: and twenty two pitchers, so more than two pitchers per
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: starting spot. Knowing I'm gonna break a bunch, knowing that
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: maybe I have a prospect or two that won't be
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: up the whole season, trying to just give myself as
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: much buffer as possible. I haven't built a team yet
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: that was so pitching heavy early that I've taken a
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: smaller number than that and then had to lean more
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: into hitters. I don't really like the way that feels
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: at the later stages. I feel like I can talk
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: myself into late pitching all the time, and I can't
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: talk myself into as many late bats that I like
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: in these fifty round leagues. The catchers, I think I'm
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: pretty typically gonna land on four catchers. I think there's
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: been a little bit of a shift the last couple
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: of years. It was the year that Phil Decill had
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: an amazing year, and one of the things he mentioned
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: was punting at catcher, literally not taking a zero in
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: a spot, being willing to say I don't need a
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: third or a fourth catcher if I don't like the
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: players that are out there in the late rounds, because
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: I'm getting so little from that spot, it doesn't even matter.
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: I'm better off taking one more picture to not have
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: a hole, or finding one more outfielder, because the players,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: comparatively speaking, are a lot better than the backup catchers
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: that might become starters because of injuries. But I do
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: I still like having four if possible, I think differently
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: about pairing up catching situations. If I have a lot
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: of confidence that the two catchers that are going to
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: get the bulk of the playing time all year on
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: the big league roster, I have no problem pairing certain
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: combinations together. We've talked on our show a little bit
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: about the Cardinals this year, you know, Yvon Herrera Pedro Plajes,
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: like in some combination it might be a little bit
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: harder to figure that out as far as like which
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: one you like a lot better than the other, how
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: aggressively to push her Ara's playing time. But those two
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: guys are going to pretty much cover catcher for the
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: Cardinals this year with Wilson Contraras moving over to first base.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: I'm more likely to pair those guys together in a
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: draft and hole than I ever would be in a
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: thirty round league. I don't think there's enough value coming
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: from having a guy's backup in almost any circumstance to
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: do that. So yeah, typically four catchers for me, and
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: oftentimes at least one pair of teammates in there. Unless
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: I go really aggressive. Sometimes I'll end up with two
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: top eight, top nine catchers, and then in that case,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: I'm not necessarily as committed to the backup because the
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: backup for a lot of those guys isn't very good.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: And yeah, the backup might be sharing time with the
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: third string catcher who isn't even on the roster yet
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: either at Triple A or is going to be acquired
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: off waivers in season, right, So I think those situations
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: can also kind of tweak that just a little bit.
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would say that that's probably the one thing
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: that caught me off guard the most in my first
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: kind of DC is like where the catcher values fell. That, Like,
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: it did feel a lot more inflated compared to where
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: it usually is. But that's also because I'm coming in
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: with the mindset of being used to catcher being almost
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: like a carousel of like if you're in a fab league,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: I think that's an easy spot to like punt your
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: second catcher, although you've talked about a lot on your
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: podcast that sometimes there could be negative values there. But
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: if you can, especially stream catchers to be able to
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: find matchups, find the guys who are going to Colorado
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: for a week, find the guys who are facing the
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: White Sox for a stretch, that like that can can
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: work compared to in these draft and holds, you're stuck
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: with what you got and that's tough. What about like
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: another consideration I think that that makes a difference, especially
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: given how early we are in in draft season, is
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: what are you doing with players that haven't signed with
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: the team and players who haven't made the rosters officially.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: So guys who were, you know, in double A, triple
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: A look like they could be walking into a situation
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: but might not be guaranteed the situation. And then same
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: thing with the free agents. Like I'm looking at my
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: draft and whole team from first pitch Arizona, I took
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: ken Lee Jansen. He's sitting right there as my closer too.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: Is that what do you think of that strategy of
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: trying to pursue some of those free agents and up
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: and coming prospects.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll start with the free agents. Mean, I think
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: right now there's a discount on guys that don't have
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: a team, even if we are pretty confident in what
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: their role is going to look like. It's trickier with relievers.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Jansen specifically is a guy that I trust more than
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: the other relievers, only because I think a team that
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: already has a closer, could add Tanner Scott. That's a possibility.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Any team would be excited to have Tanner Scott. So
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: I look at Scott kind of as a higher risk,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: high reward sort of pick that if I was really
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: really kind of light on saves after the first GEZ
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: seven or eight rounds, probably at least before you're even
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: thinking about him, maybe I'm willing to burn my tenth
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: or eleventh round pick on the possibility. Because, as he
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: pointed out earlier, you do get the ratios, you do
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: get the k's, and I think it's easy to underestimate
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: the likelihood that you're just gonna need a healthy picture
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: of any kind to be your ninth pitcher some week.
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: So even Tanner Scott's set up guy on a good
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: team might vulture some wins going to get you the
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: k's probably gonna help your ratio. It's not completely wasted
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: pick if it doesn't work out. As far as Jansen goes,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: I look at him as the kind of guy that
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: is more likely to end up on a wild card
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: caliber team or worse, but would still be a closer
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: because he probably is a Hall of famer. I don't
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: want to start a Hall of Fame debate right now.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: But I think he's done that job for so long,
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: and he's aged well enough where teams look at him
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: for that role, and maybe even he and his agents
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: are looking for a spot where he has promised that.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: So he might end up as a national, or end
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: up in a spot where he's just going to get
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: twenty saves to begin the season. Maybe he gets traded
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: with the deadline and it's a little dice here after that,
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: but at least you have a closer too, And I
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: think he's discount enough where you can justify that for
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: position players, you know, guys like Alex Bregman, no matter
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: where he plays, he's gonna be an every day guy.
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: Even if it's a shorter deal than he wants, He's
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: an everyday guy. I'm not really worried about that. I
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: do think where he lands could have a significant impact
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: on his power output, but he's a good enough player
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: where he's not gonna hurt you where he's going, and
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: he could end up in a hitter friendly environment and
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: end up getting boosted up quite a bit. I mean,
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: if Alex Bregman becomes a Yankee, that ADP is going
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: to jump three or four rounds because of that lineup
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: in that home park, and if he ends up a Tiger,
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: it's probably not going to change. It's not going to
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: drop from where it is. He's still going to have
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: that playing time to fall back on. So I do
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: like guys like that. I think the uncertainty in that
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: instance makes a lot of sense to lean into because
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: you're probably getting a discount. We're probably too careful with
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: some of the higher end free agents, but the relievers
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: in particular I find to be really tricky. I mean
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: Jeff Hoffman. For the last several weeks, there were teams
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: that could have signed him and maybe decided to make
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: him a starter. They could have done the Clay Holmes
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: thing with him if he landed in the right spot. Now,
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: I think he's pretty safely the Blue Jays closer because
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: of the money they're giving him and their intentions of
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: keep him in the bullpen.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: So it's just a it's a really weird guessing game
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: right now with relievers in particular, because teams seem more
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: optimistic about roles than they have been historically for guys
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: that have been in short relief for multiple seasons.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I think that all makes sense. So let's
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: get into some more specific players in terms of so
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: what we did is I think these are kind of
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: categories archetypes that players are just chasing across the board
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: in these deeper leagues that I mean, obviously I've picked
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: this up a lot from your podcast and from other
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: sources over the years. But what I did go into
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: this draft knowing that I wanted to hone in on
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: was first just like high floor pitchers, because you just
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: need volume at the end of the day that I
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: especially think about my Gladiator, you know, I was able
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: to pick up like some late picks on like in
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: Eric Fetti, Michael Waka players like that where you know
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: their slide into the rotation. And then the other is
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: utility players in terms of you know you have the
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: flexibility to move them around, which is huge in the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: draft and hole dcs obviously not as big of a
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: deal and Gladiator where you're kind of set with your lineup,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: but that allows you to shuffle the player around and
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: just find the actual volume in the playing time that
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: might not always be there where like you alluded to
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: this where sometimes you just need a pitcher or warm
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: body to throw in because you've run out of players
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: due to injuries or just bad matchups or other mitigating factors.
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: So I figured we dive a little bit further into
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: these categories. Overall we've kind of got a few names,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: and then you know we can go from there. So
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: the first is high floor pitchers, who are some years
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: that are going really late in drafts or going much
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: lower in the overall ADPs, where, especially when you're considering
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: draft and holds draft champions, that the ADP he should
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: probably be a bit higher because you're looking for some
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: of that certainty, some of that floor.
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I think one that I see a
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: lot is Tobias Myers. I think Tobias Myers is one
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: of those guys that is probably safer in the Brewer's
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: rotation than his position on a depth chart would lead
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: you to believe. Freddy Peralta is the clear ace there,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: but he's had some arm problems in the past. See
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: there's a little bit of an injury risk there. Nest
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: Cortes was hurt last year even though they acquired him.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: Aaron Slavali never makes it through a season healthy. Woodriff's
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: coming up a major shoulder problem and then Tobias Myers
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: was really good last year, so he might be you know,
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: fifth on a depth chart or fourth on a depth chart,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: depending on how you account for woodriff. And he was
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: good enough where I think he's clearly ahead of guys
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: like d L. Hall and Aaron Ashby and Chad Patrick,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: and once Robert Gasser comes back, maybe even had a
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: gas er too. I think people are overlooking that, and
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: I'm not really sure why had Genuinely, it seemed like
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: the Brewers really would surprise that how good was because
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: where he was on their internal depth charts during the spring,
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: he was buried like double digits, like they didn't think
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: he was going to make any starts for them unless
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: a bunch of stuff went wrong. But it's a deep
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: enough arsenal, multiple fastball guy that has I think just
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: enough command to really be solid, albeit unspectacular, has the
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: occasional nights where it's seven or eight k's, but it's
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: like kind of league average ish for kra eight or
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: even a tick above pretty good walk rate. I think
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: people worry about the ballpark a little more than they
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: should in Milwaukee, being a detriment to the pitchers there.
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: But I think it's actually a good place to pitch.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: We've talked about it as one of the places that
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: actually boosts strikeouts, probably because of some lighting issues with
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: the roof and all these like unique factors about parks
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: that can actually boost the kraade, the batter's eye, whatever
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: it might be. Shadows during day games. There are some
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: quirks in American family field that I could see just
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: watching games that kind of helped me to understand why
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: it would boot strikeouts.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: But it might's brandy old fashions. Do you think the
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: brandy old fashions are distracting players?
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I mean it could be for some guys, Like yeah,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on. I should find out.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: I know, visiting teams often stay at the Fister, and
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: the Fisters supposed to be haunted.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: It is.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: I'm sure the Fisters bar makes a really good old fashion.
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: I've never had it, but I should probably go down
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: there and do some research.
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I've stayed there. It is creepy, even if it's
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: not haunted. It's just like it's got that Midwestern, like
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: eighteen hundreds creepy vibe where no part of it. I
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: don't want any part of that Yeah, I like.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: I like dropping by places like that, maybe having a
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: nice meal or something, But I don't know if I
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: want to sleep there, even though it is it is
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: a nice hotel, I is. I don't think I want
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: to sleep there.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think what I really like about Tobias
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: Myers too, is just the volume and innings. I think
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: that's something that we're gonna have to worry about a
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: lot with pitching in some of these deeper drafts where
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: you're drafting and holding, because if you can't get the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: volume in innings pitch, then you're not going to get
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: the k's and the wins. And so so I'm looking
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: at Tobias Myers. Last year he put up one hundred
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: and fifty six and two thirds innings between the Majors
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: and Triple A, so he should be in line for
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: a full workload, which is great to see. So I
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: think that's a great pick, especially when you look at
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: that Milwaukee rotation. It's shaky at best, I would say
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: on the back end, given all the injuries and everything
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: that they're dealing with.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think if we haven't realized that by now,
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: I don't think this is me being a Homer. But
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: this is an organization that understands how to make pitchers
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: work effectively. They just do it well. They scout well,
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: they game plan well, they have a good defense on
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: the field. They have high quality catching instructors in the organization.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: You can see time and time again they bring catchers in.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Catchers get better. Like all of those factors help the
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: pitching staff too. And I just have some organizational trust there.
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: I know a lot of people trust the Dodgers, they
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: trust the Rays, they trust the Guard and the Brewers
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: belong in that conversation as far as what they do
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: with pitching on a regular basis.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I totally agree. And then I mean the type
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: of players that I'm looking for in this kind of category,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: and our narchetype are well. One. It wouldn't be our
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: podcast or RAS ball at all if I didn't call
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: out Sonny Gray as like a great option here of
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: like somebody who obviously he's going to go pretty high
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: on draft boards, and looking at the NFBC data for
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: draft champions over the past month, he's averaging about pick
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: one oh three, so just outside the top one hundred.
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: But I think he's the type of player where you
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: can boost him further up above some of the players
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: where there are question marks, you know, like I think
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: like a Spencer Schwellenbach or even like a Rokie Sasaki
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: or somebody who you know hasn't been fully established. We
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: don't know what the innings level coming into twenty twenty
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: five is going to be. Like somebody likes Sonny Gray
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: is going to provide just outstanding volume that some of
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: these other players, you know, they might not have the
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: similar question So I think he fits kind of into
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: this bucket of where in a typical kind of roto league,
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: where you have transactions that you can make, you can
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: chase upside a little more and kind of cycle through
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the back end of your roster and be able to
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: chase the latest and greatest prospect that's coming up from
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: the miners. But in this type of format, because you
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: need that steady eddy person, Sonny Gray I think really
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: can be boosted to like a very high number two
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: or even like, if you want to really risk it,
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: you know, maybe even a number one and then kind
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: of fill it out from there. But otherwise, the guy
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: who really strikes my fancy going into twenty twenty five
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: is Frankie Montas that I liked what we saw from
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: him in Milwaukee there, you know, down the stretch and
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: just some of the changes that he made in his arsenal.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: The move to City Field, I don't think can be
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: kind of stated strongly enough out there that this is
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: a park where home runs are suppressed, and you're looking
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: at just the way that it plays overall, and how
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: cold it can get too out there in Queens and
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: just the wind patterns. It seems like, I think, play
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: a factor that you're looking at a player in Frankie Montes,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: who you know over the years, he has come back
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: from that shoulder surgery. Now I believe it's a shoulder
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: issue over what that he battled in twenty twenty three,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: and so he came back, put up one hundred and
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: fifty and two thirds innings last year and this year.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Mets could lean on for
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: as many as they want, especially given that he's got
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the two year deal. I think they're going to write
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: him as hard as they can, because right now the
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Mets are looking at a little bit of like it's
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: another organization where the back end of the rotation isn't
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: quite as strong. So I think they're going to need
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: to get thirty two starts out of Frankie Montas if
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: they're going to survive the entire year. Yeah.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: I think that's what makes the Mets kind of a sneaky,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: dangerous team too, is like they have a park that's
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: even more pitched a friendly than Milwaukee. They have David
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Stearns taking the things that he did with the organization
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: in Milwaukee, implementing that with Steve Cohen's resources, so they
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: can go in. They can spend in free agency, they
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: can spend in player development, they can have a pitching lab.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: That's the end via the entire league. I think they
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: are the relative newcomer to the conversation of teams that
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: are phenomenal for pitching. But I think the fact that
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: Ino was upset that you got him on David Peterson
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: speaks a lot to the quality of what the Mets
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: can do with a pitcher. I don't think David Peterson
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: this time last year was anyone a lot of people
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: were excited about. He was just sort of a guy
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: on the depth chart. So when I look at the Mets,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: like I'm with you on Montas, it's interesting that he's
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: really over the course of his career turned to this
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: guy with a wider arsenal because I think he had
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: reliever a risk when he came in. He threw really hard.
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: It's like like sink or splitter, I think is all
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: he had, and oh, two pitches, can can you do
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: enough to be a starter? Now it's four steams sink
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: or cutter, splitter, slider, Okay, and it all works really
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: well together. You can at least plan on using a
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: guy like Momentos for pretty much all those home starts,
• 35:15
  Speaker 2: and then you're gonna pick your spots on the road.
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: So probably seventy five percent of the time he's in
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: your lineup. In deeper leagues, it might be more than that.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: I think that's a great call. And just on Sunny
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: Gray for a minute too, it's like he's he's also
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: become a very wide arsenal guy. But then he has
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: that devastating sweeper and you look at the the effectiveness
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: of that pitch, I feel like is optimized by the
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: fact that he's not throwing at forty percent of the time. Like,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: it's always good to see a pitch that's so good
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: you can throw it that often and get away with it.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: I feel like hitters eventually figure it out. The tech
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: is so good, the anticipation becomes something you can do.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: You can sit on a really good pitch and make
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: it less effective, but with a six pitch arsenal what like,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: you just don't know, Like he's he's kitchen sinking you,
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: but he's also beating you with pretty good breaking stuff too.
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: So I like Sunny Gray quite a bit as already
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: safe ratios play. I think if you were going to
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: go the route of making him an SB one as
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: he suggested, you're probably drafting three more pitchers in the
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: next four or five rounds right behind him, just to
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: like support it. But if you build a team that way,
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: if you said, I'm going really hit or heavy, and
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: I want Sonny Gray and a couple of other like
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: veterans kind of like him as my staff, I think
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: you could actually put together a pretty quality team doing that.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, I think it is an interesting route to
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: kind of zig against, especially when you're in these drafts
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: right now. You're in with some of the sharpest people
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: out there in fantasy baseball. You know, I was just
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: looking before this at like some of the people who
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: are in my league and you just see like all
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: of the badges next to their names on NFBC that
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: I think it's gonna happen a lot if you're just
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: in even a public league, so it is you've got
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: to find different strategies to get your your stats where
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: you can. So let's flip over to utility players. So
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: I think this is another big hallmark of draft champions
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: is trying to find utility players to be able to
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: plug into different spots. But then at the same time,
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: it's difficult because a lots of these players in real
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: life are platooned or they are utility players themselves, so
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: they don't have a full time role and can kind
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: of get pushed out. But what types of players and
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: especially specific players, are your kind of favorite targets going
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: into twenty twenty five for a utility player on the
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: back end of your roster for these really deep draft champions.
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and when you say utility player, I think of
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: players that either have multiple positions of eligibility or will
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: quickly add new positions to an eligibility. So that's what
• 37:41
  Speaker 2: kind of jumps off the page. And occasionally these are
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: single position guys that don't move around. You can't always
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: guess right, But I think it's a few names. I
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: just drafted Tyler Black, another Brewer shocker. He's ut only
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: on the NNBC, and last year the Brewers only played
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: them at first base. Defensively, previously we looked at them
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: in hope he could find time at second or third.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: They may have an opening at third, assuming that Joey
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: or Teze either slides over to play a short stop.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: They may have an opening at second if they decide
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: to go with Bryce terraang over there. They could keep
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: or tease at third. In that scenario, they could make
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: a trade or sign someone and completely change everything. But
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: the more I look at the Brewer's depth chart, the
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: more I think the bar for Tyler Black to play
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: as they are currently constructed is actually pretty low. Reese
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Hoskins is not a good defender at first base. He's
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: blow average. So if Black could just be passable and
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: bring enough to be a big side platoon guy, they
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: can justify playing him at first base over Reese Hoskins.
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: D Hing Hoskins, and he'll qualify at first base, you know,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: maybe within a month, because maybe he's on he's the
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: first guy off the roster because he has options like,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: there's always a possibility of that. But the reason why
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: I believe in Tyler Black not because he's a brewer.
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: It's because we see a combination of skills in thes
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: We see power, we see speed, we see a really
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: discerning eye the strike zone that I felt like watching
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: games last year, in the brief time he was up,
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: he may have been the player getting burned the most
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: on that roster by borderline strike zone calls. It was absurd,
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: and I think there is a tougher adjustment for anybody
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: coming from Triple A to the big leagues right now,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: going from ABS to non ABS. Again, the zones are
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: just different anyway, so that that adjustment's never been easy.
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: The stuff's better in the big leagues. That's another reason
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: why the adjustment is hard. But then you have these
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: little quirks that if you have a great eye and
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: you can adapt to the zone really quickly, the zone
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: changing on top of guys being better, I feel like
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: amplifies that problem. So Tyler Black, he doesn't hit the
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: ball as hard as you would like, but a thirty
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: one thirty two percent hard hit rate at Triple A
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: for a guy that only strikes out seventeen or eighteen
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: percent of the time. Isn't that much of a concern.
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: He was twenty for twenty three as a base dealer
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: at Triple A last year, combined between High A, Double
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: A and Triple A, or just between Double A and
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: Triple A the year before fifty five bags and sixty
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: seven attempts. Right, So I think he gets on base
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: enough to use the wheels. He has non zero power.
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: And the Brewers haven't done anything in free agency at
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: all so far, and they lost Williadames. So there's a
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: huge share of playing time that opens up that with
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: all the shuffling around, could leave at least a big
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: side platoon share of playing time for Tyler Black somewhere.
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: The other ways it could work, I mean, if he's
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: good enough to play left field, which would be something
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: you have to see in spring training. Christian Yelich is
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: gonnadh a lot, right. I know they have a lot
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: of outfielders, but they can move so many guys around
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: that the playing time will work itself out if he's
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: the offensive player we expect him to be. And I
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: just I mean, do you see a lot of guys
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: run four hundred OVPs coming through the miners like either
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: young for the level or age appropriate for the level,
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: and then just do nothing in the big leagues. To me,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: that's a pretty short list of guys, especially ones that
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: actually have some power and can run like that.
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And I mean, if you're looking at the Brewer's
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: depth chart right now and roster resource, they have two
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: kind of platoons lined up, and one is in left
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: field self Frelik, who's left handed. The other is Oliver
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Done at third base, who's left handed. I don't have
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: a lot of faith and like either of those guys,
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: you know, necessarily being somebody that the Brewers have to
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: pencil into the lineup every single day. That it's you
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: can see where Tyler Black easily leaps frog leapfrog is
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: one of them, especially Oliver Done. I'm not sure what
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: Oliver Done is still kind of doing hanging around on
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: this Milwaukee roster, but that'd be a great spot for
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Black to settle in. And yes, the major league numbers
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: for Black were rough last year. But I also remember, like,
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: because he came up a couple times when I would
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: write about him on my waiver wire last year, that
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: it always looked like he had a spot, to be
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: able to walk in and play some first base when
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: Thereez Hoskin was hurt, play some dh especially when Yelich
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: start went down. That there were opportunities, but for some
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: reason Milwaukee just didn't give them to him. That the
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: playing time was sporadic, and so it's really hard, I
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: think for a player to find a groove. And if
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Black is able to walk into a situation where he
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: can get, you know, five six starts a week, he
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: might be able to find what that magic that he's
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: produced down in the minors and be able to just produce.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: It's hard to come up and produce as a rookie
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: without the regular playing time, the regular reps.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and a lot of guys, especially on contending teams,
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: run to that problem because every single game matters. And
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: I think last year maybe the defense of Jake Bowers
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: at first base was a consideration took. Fowers is back
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: on a NRI like non guaranteed deal, so there's always
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: the possibility to start the season that way. But man,
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: I just I have a hard time looking at that
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: production in the upper levels of the minor league and
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: saying they can't find a use for Tyler Black.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: On that roster. Yeah, I totally agree. So I'm actually
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: going to stick in the inne of central here for
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: I've actually got a pairapix because I think they work
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: together and in tandem and qualify lots of different positions.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: It's with the Pittsburgh Pirates, we've got some great opportunities
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: between Spencer Horwitz and Ikf Isaiah kiner Fhiletha. So they
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: are both slotted right now to be starting players for
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: the Pirates going into twenty twenty five. Kiner Phileff has
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: actually slotted to be the leadoff hitter right now for
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: the Pirates and play shortstop every day as O'Neil Cruz
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: is transitioning out to center field. And I think especially
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: for Ikf, he's kind of the classic mold of this
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: player where you don't always see the straight path to
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: playing time, but when it's all said and done, by
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: the end of the year, he's racked up five hundred
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: played appearances, he's swiped fifteen bags, he's popped eight to
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: ten homers, and he hasn't killed you in batting average.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: So it's perfect for being able to like be a
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: salve across your entire infield because he should qualify. Let
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: me see where he qualifies right now on NFBC, we
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: are looking at shortstop and second base and third base,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: so he's got the entire infield covered for you. And
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: can you know fill in corner end field and middle
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: and field too. That this is the exactly the type
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: of player who's playing every day on weekly lineups. You
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about him getting in and out
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: too much of the lineup. And it's just kind of
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: it's really boring because I can't like state that there's
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: something really fantastic in his game other than he plays
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: for the Pirates, has the playing time and has a
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of speed to be able to offer value
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: for us. On the other kind of guy that I
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: mentioned there, Horwitz. I love Horwitz that I've loved the
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: plate approach. It was really unfortunate. I think that the
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Blue Jays kind of buried him in the miners as
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: long as they did that. He was regularly putting up
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: fantastic WRC pluses throughout his minor league time with Buffalo,
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: and now that he's gotten his opportunity, he made the
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: most of it. Last year put up a one to
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: twenty seven WRC plus has fantastic plate discipline, you know,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: only struck out eighteen point four percent of the time
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: with an eleven percent walk rate two sixty five three
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: fifty seven four to thirty three slug. This is a
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: guy who's going to qualify at first and second base
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: that honestly, he's got a lot of like Brandon low
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: without is it low orlow? That one is? Wow? Wow,
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: that's low. Thank you the professional here that Brandon Lau
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: without the speed in terms of but also more batting average,
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: So like it's a power profile at second base. Am
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: I that? I think the draft price on Spencer Horwitz is,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: you know, a little bit more expensive than year pick
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: of Tyler Black there. But he's going average right outside
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the top three hundred over the last month. But this
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: is a guy who I think can be a top
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: twelve second baseman by the end of the year when
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: it's all said and done, just because I don't see
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: who's taking his job in Pittsburgh. And it's a fantastic
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: situation for Horwitz.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm trying to wrap my head around that that
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: ceiling and what it takes for him to get there.
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, he doesn't run well, so I think that's
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: the only the categorical deficiency that makes it a little
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: harder for him to make that leap. You're right about
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: the playing time, and I don't know what the Pirates
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: are doing as far as what they see in some
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: of their bats that they keep trying. Now. They made
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: the trade for Nick York, Yes, giving up Quinn Priester,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: and I kind of that was a fun trade where
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: it was like two organizations that couldn't quite get what
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: they wanted out of first round draft picks and decided
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: to swap good, fun challenge trade. I think we look
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: at the Pirates now is yet another organization that it's
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: not just Paul Skeens, but they're starting to put together
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: some pretty interesting pitching. I mean, you have Jared Jones,
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Oanes is a guy that's really taken off in their organization.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: A lot of people love Bubba Chandler. Thomas Harrington's close,
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: so they're getting it together on the pitching side. And
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: I have just like as much as I like that pitching,
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: I do not like what they do with their bats.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: Horowitz does make them better. You might be their third
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: best hitter by projections right now looking at WRC plus,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: I mean oeoal Cruz, Brian Reynolds, and then probably Horowitz.
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: So I think you're right about the playing time. The
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: plate skills are good. He got to a little more
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: power than expected last year with the Jays. It's probably
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: like a twenty homer sort of bat for me with
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: good run production and yeah, non zero speed. So yeah,
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: I could see it. And I think it also says
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: something about the state of second base as a position too,
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: where things tend to flatten out pretty good. So cracking
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: that top twelve is definitely possible if you end up
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: in an everyday role, and it's nice for the leagues
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: where you can't make moves like these draft and holds.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Having a corner middle guy first and second eligibility does
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: make him a nice kind of later round piece.
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I especially like I compare to this
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: is a little skewed because of like where Glaber Torres
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: was going before he signed, But like that, I think
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: that's the type of like player I would be taking
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: him over, honestly, because I just don't see where Glaver.
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: I know you're Glate, you love Claver in terms of
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: like what I've heard on the pot over the years,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: but I just don't see Detroit treating Glaber very well,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: and just like it's a it's a tough landing spot
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: as opposed to Spencer, Horowitz is just gonna walk into
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: great situation in Pittsburgh.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if if nothing else, I think Horowitz, for more
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: shallow leagus is probably gonna be a watchless sort of
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: player the first week two first, for two weeks of
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: the season, there's gonna be some people out there like, Wow,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: this guy's playing a lot, He's playing pretty well, he's
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: high up in the order, especially against right He's he's
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: gonna end up getting picked up in some shallow leagues
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: to at least cover for injuries and and help people out.
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I think it's also like the type of player
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: I find this when I'm writing my Waiver Wire articles.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Are there there's guys who just kind of like stick
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: around forever because for some reason, players fantasy players out
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: there don't buy in to the overall profile or especially
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: when you're playing for the Pirates, you know, exactly a
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: high profile team that I can see in past years
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: like Mitch Garver and Kyle Gashioka have been these players
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: where I just like suggested them every week last year
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: Tommy fam was in this in this group where Horwitz,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: I could see actually Horwitz was one of them when
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: before he kind of got into higher ownership percentages, it
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: felt like I was writing about him every week. So
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: it's a he's going to be one of my pet
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: projects probably going into twenty twenty five here.
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's a fun one. I think the other
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: name that I saw on the show sheet that I
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: want to talk about with you real quick is this
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: Hunter Goodman because he kind of he's interesting because he's
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: catcher eligible caught just enough to have that. I can't
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: quite figure out how much they really like.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: Him as a catcher.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: They have old man Jacob Staalings, they have another prospect
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: in Drew Romo, so the playing time question is very real.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: You look at projections for this team, Hunter Goodman by
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: WRC plus is the second best Rocky. It's using the
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: new Oopsie projections that just launched over at Fangrafts as
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: one of the other public Yeah, that's great acronym too.
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: I think my guess reading the description of what Oopsie
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: brings into its system is that it's going to look
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: more like the bat X than some of the older
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: projection systems new so cool to have that out there,
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: and Jordan Rosenbloom did some great work to make that happen.
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: But anyway, Hunter Goodman thirty four homers last year in
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: twenty twenty three in the minors, and most of them
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: were hit at double A. A's only ninety one games.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: I just think this is a bat the Rockies can
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: rely on. They seem like an organization that understands guys
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: are going to strike out, in part because of what
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: happens on the road, the differences in how pitches move
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: at Coors versus elsewhere. And I think I saw comments
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: from Bud Black talking about Sam Hilliard is a guy
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: they were going to give significant run to. And Hilliard
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: did put together kind of a super productive run in
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: limited playing time last year. But he's thirty one in February,
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: and up to this point in his career, he's had
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: eight hundred and seventy five Big League played appearances, and
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: he did what he did last year with ay thirty
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: five per kate. So you know, you could be a
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: strikeout tolerant organization, but you've probably seen enough Sam Hilliard
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: over the years to say he's more of a backup outfielder.
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: I realized the platoon situation wouldn't work in Goodman's favor,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: but I think they owe it to themselves to give
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: the opportunity to a guy who's five years younger. So
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: even if Hunter Goodman's not a big part of their
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: catching plan, he should be part of their plan somewhere
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: the other part of this roster that's a little different.
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: I know they talk about Chris Bryant being maybe the
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: main DH trying to keep him healthy. They could also
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: play Chris Bryant at first base. There's no reason why
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: that act isn't a possibility. They don't have Charlie Blackman
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: there anymore. That's a guy they play a lot the
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: last couple of years, at the twilight of his career.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: So I think a couple of things have shifted to
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: where I can talk myself into Hunter Goodman, even if
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: I don't have a clear indication from the Rockies of
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: what his playing time looks like.
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I will be fascinating to see how this all
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: sorts out in the spring, because it is a jumble
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: in Colorado, and I think there's lots of great buying
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: opportunities because, like another person, I was considering, like bringing
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: up in this discussion was Tyro Estrada, but like, I'm
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: also afraid that the Rockies are going to rockies this
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: up and bring in Kyle Farmer to play second base
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: all the time. And you're looking at like Sean Bouchard,
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: Why Sean Bouchard not getting the opportunity over Hilliard as well?
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: And yeah, it's just a confounding situation where I think
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: there's lots of great opportunities and lots of good buying
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: opportunities here on this Rocky squad. And I love Goodman,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: but I just like that in a vacuum, where like
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: if we didn't have the Rockies organization at large influencing
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: our decisions, I would be all in on Goodman because
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: he should be playing Overstallings, he should be playing at
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: first base in right field and getting these opportunities. But
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: I'm just not sure if they're going to do it right.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Like that's that's the difficulty, and it's a I mean,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: I know we're kind of running up on time here,
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: but like the Rockies are always going to be just
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: it's like the classic like the meme of like the
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: sticking the stick into your own like bicycle spokes and
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: asking like how did this happen? That it feels like
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: that's Colorado And it's just I don't think I'm smarter
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: than too many organizations, but I do have a feeling
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: like if we ran the Rockies, we could certainly do
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: better than what they've been putting out on the field. Yeah.
• 53:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, one thing I've kind of realized over the years,
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: even teams that aren't good have smart people they've hired,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: and sometimes they just don't listen to them, right, And
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: I think there's been some strange things we've learned over
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: the years. I think during the shutdown, you know, they
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: had analytics people folding laundry. It was a report that
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: was going around just like weird stuff, right, And how
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: much of the Rocky struggle is the result of everyone
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: working there having to carry Dick Monford around on their shoulders,
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: Like it's bad ownership. It's it's a group that should
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: be as data and tech intensive as any in the
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: league because of how difficult it is to play baseball there. Like,
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: I will fully agnow that's the toughest job in the
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: big leagues, regardless of who owns the team. It's just
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: a tough place to figure out pitching, and then it's
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: even more difficult when you have like another Ardi Moreno
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: type who owns the team, who's cheap and erratic and
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: just doesn't just doesn't get it. So that's that's part
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: of the problem in Colorado too. I just don't get
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the sense they go far enough outside of their own
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: circle to ever change everything. That's that's why I get
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: so frustrated with them. And yeah, like Michael Tolia, I
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: think he's gonna play a lot, should play a lot.
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: People like him more than I do. Maybe that's part
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: of my interest in Goodman too, is looking at Totally
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: and saying, yeah, he also is above that thirty percent
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: krate mark. Maybe they'll sour on him if he can't
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: make some strides, even though projections are a little optimistic
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: in that regard.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I hear you, and it does. It did
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: feel like Totally have finally found his footing and whatever.
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: Rockies love that they kind of indoctrinate there, so like
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: it'll be. I think he's also like such an easy
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: bus candidate because of he's been going really high in drafts,
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: because of everybody seeing all the playing time in front
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: of him. But yes, I'm glad that we got some
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: great conversation on the Pirates and the Rockies. I'm sure
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: that's what everybody was tuning in for that. It's nothing
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: more fascinating, nothing that really lights up those SEO buzzers
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: more than pirates and Rockies talk. But Derek, I really
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: appreciate you coming on here. It's been a fantastic time
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: talking with you. So let everybody know where they can
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: reach you.
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: On socials, Yeah, I'm on Blue Sky just DVR over there.
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: It's dvr dotbsky dot social if that's if that helps you.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: I'm on Twitter. I'm not really there, Derek, ben Riper's
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: the handle. If you want to follow me. I don't know.
• 56:09
  Speaker 2: If there's a world where that comes back and ever
• 56:11
  Speaker 2: becomes what it used to be, that happens, you can
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: follow me there and I will gradually show back up,
• 56:16
  Speaker 2: but not expecting that to happen right now. Rates and
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: Barrels is anywhere you want to listen to podcasts if
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: you like watching them on YouTube or throwing them on
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: the background on YouTube. We got a YouTube channel with
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: the full episodes up there as well, so be sure
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: to check it out.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: Awesome well yeah, and you can reach me on socials
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Am Cool seven on Blue Sky and you can find
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: the podcast at cards Categories on Blue Sky and email
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: the podcast at cards Categories at gmail dot com. We
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: do have links in the show notes for some Cards
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: and Categories merchandise if you want a hat or a
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: mug or baby onesie, we have a baby Onesie in
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: there too, and so appreciate you checking out this podcast
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: and once again, DVR thanks for joining in this week
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: and giving us this preview on Draft Champs and Gladiator Leagues.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: And we will be back, same time, same place next
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: week as we get into our divisional previews here on
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Cards and Categories. Thanks everybody,