Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - Time to Buy Again? + Stock Market News 09 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - Time to Buy Again? + Stock Market News 09 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix here, and good morning to you and the Echo.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Welcome to a new week.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Is it all over?
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Is the worst behind us, which means we need to pour white powder into cups?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, this is suspicious, I know.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at that.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at the Apple event today.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at the Palantir deal just out.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: We're going to look at the data that's driving the market.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I read all the weekend reports from Goldman Sachs and all the other banks out there and I'm going to put all that information and I'm going to hand it to you on a platter so you're the best informed investor there and you can make smarter decisions.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: That's really what our intention is here, despite the slightly mad hair today.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: What's with the hair?
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: It's kind of getting slightly out of control, isn't it?
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: I thank the 49 of you who've already found the way to the like button.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: For the other couple of hundred of you, there is still hope.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Yes, maybe I'm having a good hair day.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I know, I know it's a bit humid here today, which is why you get the full glory today of that.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So Apple event here something to watch out for that kicks off at 10 am today.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: Why is it important?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Well, till about 12 months ago, apple made the market and we didn't care about any other stock.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: They are still very, very important.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: We want them to wow us and woo us, to make us believe that people are going to buy about 10 million more iPhones than usual in the coming season.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: That's basically their goal over there.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: So it'll be interesting to see what they do.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Also important for the whole AI market and chip market and semiconductors and the whole ecosystem that is attached to the mighty Apple.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: But I think a lot of people are just asking this question Was this the top?
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Was this the 2000?
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We were here, been there, done that, and now it's only going to go one way.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: So this was 2000.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: And this is July 2024.
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: And we've come down a fair bit since then, not quite as dramatically as that.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Do you have a strawberry in your pocket?
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Strawberry, you mean this.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: There's a little pocket square.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: I don't try to fit in.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: By the way.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: I gave up when I was about 16 and I realized I was just a little mad and most people would always think that.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: So once you embrace your madness, then it's okay and you can proudly wear strawberries in your pocket.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: So that's one thing, and I want to answer that today by looking at some more data.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: So if you look at the stock market overall, you've got in mighty blue, the AI stocks.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Blue is AI.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Then you have, in some sort of weird brownish tone which I can't replicate, you've got tech generally and then in a friendly green, you have simply the S&P 500.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Then, in a friendly green, you have simply the S&P 500.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: And you can see, the S&P 500 is sort of this smooth, kind of boring ride.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: It just goes up very gradually over time and AI wow, that really gave you a jolt.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: But what you can also see is that the gap here this was the July high, this was July and the gap between there and the S&P.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: If I'm allowed a straight line, am I allowed a straight line?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: Apparently not.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Maybe I should try a different color.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: No, this is, yeah, the finest AI from Microsoft.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: So that line there.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: You see how long that was.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: And now where we are right now, you can see that the outperformance has shrunk drastically and in many ways that's a good thing, right, it means we've let some air out of the balloon and therefore we're ready to, you know, possibly improve again.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Right, that would be one way of looking at it.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Look at a bit more data.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, this year I thought I'd remember I've been boring the pants off many of you saying our portfolio is up $24,000 this year, up 80%.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Well, now it's a little bit more exciting.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: We're now up about $28,000.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: These are realized profits on a $30,000 portfolio.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Profits on a $30,000 portfolio and what's that?
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: In 28, over 30?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: So we're about 93%.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: No longer boring, is it 93%?
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: It's really not bad about.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: We should probably go on holiday for the rest of the year.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn how we do that without me promising, obviously, those returns, because the SEC would say that was illegal join me live tomorrow at phoenixfriendsorg slash webinar.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Bring about 90 minutes of your life, a notebook, a nice beverage, maybe a cat, and I'll teach you.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: As simple as that.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: It's a three-step system that we employ.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: We automate all of it and that's why the candle here came in so sharply.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: At the end there.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: You see that rally up there.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: That was actually a stop loss.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: But rather than losing money, we made money because we don't let our losers turn into our winners.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Turn into losers that's what happens when the market goes down in our portfolio.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: That's what happens.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: That's what happens when the market goes down.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: We actually cash out and we make money.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: So you're going to learn how we do that.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Come and join me.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So my last week was good, very nice.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: Now back to big data.
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: Love those realised profits, phil.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what it's all about.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: You look like a young Doc Brown Interesting.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Um the cat for the haitians.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: What's that all about the cat?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Oh, the haitians who are eating.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Eating.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: Um the wildlife.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Yes, what's that all about?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: It's a bit of an odd one, isn't it?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I thought they get free food and you give them free food.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: When you give every refugee and free food, I mean, haitians don't have it very good in ha.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: They should not be eating the cats, so I wouldn't like them if they eat the cats.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: I can tell you that much.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: What about, just generally, where the market is?
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Well, everybody's bought tech.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: It's just not been a secret.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Every single person since about 2018 has just gone out and said what are you invested in?
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Tech?
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: You, tech, and right now, tech ETFs make up almost 40% of the market.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: So tech is just like massive.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: But does that mean it's overboard?
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Well, look at this.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: Tmt is tech right Tech, media, telecoms or something, and the PE ratios of techs is right about here and there's always a bit of data on these.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: We've got to get through some data.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: We look at Palantir and everything in a moment.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: But compared to 2000, we're still at a modest sort of 40 PE 2000,.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: We were somewhere up here off the chart so we could go higher on that pure metric.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And here's another comparison, and I like doing that.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: I think historic data is useful.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So this is now, this is 2000 and the next 12 months.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Pe in 2000 for the magnificent 7 was well, it's confusing, isn't it?
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: With respect to this percentile, so it was significantly higher.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: That's basically what they're saying.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, okay, this is a steeper comparison.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: He made this chart.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: He made this chart idiot.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Anyway, this is a little bit clearer.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: This is actually what I wanted to get to and that is there is a reason.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: The top tech stocks are more expensive.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So the magnificent seven you know they're known the Magnificent Seven are the blue bars on this one here.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So these are the blue bars and in this year we expect them to grow their profits.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: That earnings just a fancy word for profit is 29% this year.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: That's staggeringly exciting, that's marvelous, wonderful, like, really brilliant, splendid, as the Brits would say.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: In next year it's still going to be 19%, and then 14%.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: That's the expectation.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: It's still pretty glorious.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: And then you have next to it, in sort of a dull kind of gray color, the other 493 stocks.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: They're growing this year by 3% Less than inflation right Next by 14% Maybe also less than inflation, who knows and then in 2026, also by 10%.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: So it's improving.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: Good, that's a positive.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: We want the market to improve, but there is still a significant outperformance of the top stocks, the tech stocks, to everybody else.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So you'd still expect tech to perform massively better, because 5% is a lot.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Now I see some questions here on leap option stuff.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: We'll get to that in a moment.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: My friend Just maybe ask it again in a few minutes.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, so this is stuff that isn't listed.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Why am I showing you stuff that isn't listed?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: People sometimes complain to me about that.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Felix, this is the company.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: Why are you showing me this?
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Well, these are the top nine AI companies that got funded by the cockroaches sorry, the venture capitalists of Silicon Valley.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: And look how much money they're throwing.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: X AI that's Elon's little pet 6 billion Anthropic, 2.75 billion Anthropic.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Amazon is heavily in on that.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: G42, enduro, coreweave all over a billion dollars, all more than a billion dollars, and this one here yesterday sort of took the biscuit safe super intelligence and they got a $5 billion valuation.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: The company is founded in 2024.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: It's got 10 employees.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: They actually got a billion dollars in cash.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: 5 billion valuation Makes you think a little bit that maybe we're leaving Earth's gravity a little bit, don't you think?
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Would you give a billion dollars to like some idea somebody just came up with?
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, the guy came from open AI, obviously, so he probably has a fairly good idea, but it's still quite a lot of money, isn't it?
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: It's quite a lot of money.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So this worries me a little bit, that everyone is just chasing the next OpenAI or the next AI thing so hard that they no longer care how much risk they're taking.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit of a concern.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: But back to us.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: You and me listed folks.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Yen carry trade yeah, potentially also an issue there.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: We'll look at that in a moment as well.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Google massage lady.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Who's the Google massage lady?
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Not sure somebody with a BKK in his name should be talking about massage ladies.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Okay, nvidia is indeed getting cheaper, so you got on here in light blue.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: This is my friend who uses blue and blue charts.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: Again, I'll try to track the bugger down at Goldman Sachs and steal his blue pens.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Forward EPS.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: This is basically profit per share right Expected for next year.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: And then in slightly darker blue, because the man can only see blue.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: That's probably the case, isn't it?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I'm criticizing the poor chap and he can only see blue, or maybe blue to him looks like red Happens if you take enough pills.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Apparently that's the NVIDIA stock price here, which of course, you can't see now because it's blue.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: And we're actually kind of on trend, aren't we?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: We're actually slightly below the average compared to the forward EPS, so maybe NVIDIA is actually cheap again.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Not cheap, but cheaper, right, cheaper.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: So the correction has been significant, especially on NVIDIA, which could be quite good.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Can you adopt Winston?
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: No, I'm afraid not.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I'm afraid not.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Can you adopt Winston?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: No, I'm afraid not.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: I'm afraid not.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: No, winston, you can't have Winston.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Actually, you can't have any of my little furry gown.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: My cat stopped eating again today.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: It's been a bit of a day.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: She's eating again and she's now lying on the bed, having been massaged, had acupuncture and has eaten about three cans of some sort of junk food from the supermarket, but it is what she makes her eat.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: So if she wants junk food, she has junk food.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, come and join me tomorrow live 8 pm eastern time.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: I'll show you how you get there.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: You go to felixfriendsorg slash webinar the link is down below, and that takes you to this little page here and you put in your name and you hit the register button and then boom, you'll be there.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: You get an email with how to get in there.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: It's completely it's not on youtube and and I'll show you how we're up.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: What is it?
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: 93 percent now 93 percent, which, of course, we have to use a blue pen.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: That's how I realized gain this year so far.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: We started off with $30,000 and we've turned expressed this another way.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: We've turned $30,000 into $58,000.