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Felix Prehn - BREAKING: FED *Just* Flipped + Stock Market News 10 January 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix, good morning to you.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Welcome to this pre-market bloodbath.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: Blood is in the street on Wall Street Well, actually, probably not on Wall Street, but on Main Street.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Wall Street just announced record bonuses, but we have just some data jobs data which is so outlandishly different to what the idiots who call themselves economists on Wall Street expect and I'm a former economist, so I think I can slag off my former profession that the market is taking a nosedive this morning.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: So I want to walk you through the following and enjoy this.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: This is still a good day of opportunity.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand the massive job market shift here.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: That's number one.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I want you to understand what the Fed will now do and how that therefore translates into stocks which is the real key risk to stocks here and then also outline the massive opportunity.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: That's it People are not talking about and they're not seeing it.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: And then I want to show you the key levels in the market today to show just how low we can actually go here.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: But if you want to avert your eyes, if you are this is not any children watching avert your eyes.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, here we go.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: This is pre-market Pretty pretty red right.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Nvidia down 2.6%, google and Meta down over a percent Tesla down 1.4%, amd down 3.3%, avgo down 2.2%.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: So chips getting particularly hit.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: We look at some of our favorites as well in in a moment.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it's definitely not not the morning.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: We were hoping and wishing and praying for right, but hoping and wishing and praying gets us where?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: Nowhere exactly.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So I asked you guys, as we get into the news here, what is it that you need to make investing a success there?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So far, the key thing seems to be basically picking stocks, timing it and knowing when to sell.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: So keep putting those votes in there, or put it in the chat as well.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: And then, as I run you through the job stage that just shocked the market, let me also know how long ago did you realize you basically had that problem, or that need, rather, to understand that?
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: How long have you been thinking about this?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Is it a month?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Is it a year?
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: Is it five years?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Is it 10 years?
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: How long has that been simmering up there?
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Well, I explained the jobs data.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So we were expecting 160,000 new jobs to be created by the private sector in the glorious United States of America, and what did the Muppets do?
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Apparently, they generated 256,000 jobs.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: That's a lot more jobs than expected.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: It's a massive amount more, and you might think that's a good thing.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The economy is going to be strong.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: That's a lot more jobs than expected.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: It's a massive amount more, and you might think that's a good thing.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Right, the economy is going to be strong.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Everyone's going to be out shopping and spending.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Isn't that a wonderful thing?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: But there is a little problem with it.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: If you have a very strong economy and this is basically what this is saying to you this is saying strong economy, and this is basically what this is saying to you.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: This is saying strong economy, and it might be a good thing.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: But what does it also mean?
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: It means the Fed does not have to cut rates because the economy is very strong and they might want to actually calm that economy a little bit down to make sure inflation is stopped out.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: So no rate cuts until October is what the market's now pricing in.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: So basically, for the next 10 months, not a single teeny, weeny rate cut here.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: Now, generally speaking, non-farm payroll data is bollocks, but the market pays attention to it, so it matters.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Unemployment rate also went from 4.2 to 4.1%.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: So also down.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: And again, wall Street does not like people to be in jobs.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Wall Street likes people to be unemployed.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: Now there is a silver lining here, just a little one that again headline news will not tell you about today, and that is the average hourly earnings came in kind of on the low end, so 0.3 0.3.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So it's going up less than last month.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: That's kind of a little bit of a positive here, right, um, and that's pretty much the only one.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Average hourly earnings for the year is now a little bit lower than expected, so that's kind of a little bit of a positive.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: And why is that important?
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: Because that's like less inflation, right.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Less wage inflation.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: So that's more important.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, a lot of you realized what you need to become a more successful investor here in the this year says Heidenberg there and Blues and Neumann I'm sorry I can't pronounce that Alyssa says a year ago, interesting.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, anybody else realize that out of the 500, you who voted about the need for your investments to get better what you need?
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through here a couple of charts.
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: So this really sinks in.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: This is the unemployment rate and what do you see?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: You see it's really come down quite significantly here in December.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: It's a nice little dip, not a massive dip, but it's a nice little dip.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: But you also see, the last 12 months here it's not that different.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: It's not that different.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: So this is likely a bit of an overreaction today.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying, because whether you are here or there or there, it's really not all that much different.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: We were at lower levels in March this year, for example, so it's not like a huge difference.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And then here is the average hourly earnings, which only went up 3.9%.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: That's pretty low, the lowest level since july.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Um, but you know, it is a nice sort of flattening of the trend there which is kind of, you know, low inflation.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what that's applying there in the last couple of weeks.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Says brent, okay, interesting, interesting, nikki, since you watched my class, okay, okay, so I triggered something around.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: I'm sorry about that.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: That was kind of my intention, because that's the first thing you need to realize, that you kind of need help, right.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: So why are people freaking out so much about a small change in jobs numbers?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Right, it's a bit like some people would freak out if only 10% of viewers had hit the like button on a video.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: But I'm built of stronger stuff.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: I can handle it.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: This is the S&P 500 bull run over the last two years.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: So this is us right, this is us that rocket ship there and that is, as Goldman Sachs puts it, above the top decile.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Could they put it any clearer, less clear?
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Basically, we've had one of the best two-year runs, the sort of how do I put this more easily?
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Okay, I was slagging off Goldman.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: It's easier said than done.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: A one in 20 bull runs are this great?
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: That's kind of what it's basically saying.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: So it's a fairly rare occurrence, like how wonderful the market's been treating us these last two years, and therefore people are worried.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Well, what if we therefore go back down to average?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, that could be like 30% down.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: That's what Goldman Sachs are saying this morning.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: They think there's a 30% chance of a 10% correction.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: It could even be a 30% correction.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: That kind of thing.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying it.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: I'm not buying it for a moment.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: To me, this chart says only one thing you can live off the hope that the market's going to go up and just say my money and my wealth and my success will move with the market, which is kind of handing it over to somebody else, isn't it?
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: You're saying it's somebody else's problem, that's why I'm wealthy or not.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: It's the government's fault, it's the guys in Washington, or you know people running California.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: Good luck with that one.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: And that's one way of looking at the world.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Or you can say I'm going to be in charge of it.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: That's what I do.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: I do know I'm a control freak.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Yes, I admit, it, hands up, I'm a control freak.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: My name is Felix.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I have control issues, which is like I like to manage my own money because I know I can make money in the worst of markets the worst of markets.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: I can also make money in the greatest markets.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: It's a little easier.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Perhaps Is it easier?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: You have to think less, I think, because you kind of get forgiven for basically buying pretty much anything, and therefore, what I'd say to you is if this does become more dicey it could do become more dicey over the next week or two.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to have a brilliant 2025 and also outline why I think that but if it gets more dicey, a lot of people are going to get scared and shaken out and stuff, and you therefore need to have the rules and the framework and the guidance and the confidence to A.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Sleep well, b make sure you don't do silly things with your money and therefore lose money because it's expensive, right, mistakes with money are really expensive.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: It's like the most horrible thing to lose money on is your own money.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Investing it and give you the confidence to actually, on a positive note, just be like okay, brilliant, market's going down, fantastic, that's a great opportunity.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: What are we going to do with that?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Today, if you get into that kind of frame of mind where you're just looking for, like those things oh, it's brilliant, everything's on sale, Amazing.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: What am I going to shop for today?
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Like going to Macy's and everything is 70% off.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Five women on this chat are going yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I get that and then 95% of guys are going what are you talking about, man?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Macy's Is Macy's still around?
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: I think they are right.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: So what can I offer you on a day like this, a somber, solemn day like this?
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: The masterclass.
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: Somebody joked yesterday yes, did you realize Felix had a masterclass?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Yes, maybe I mentioned it a few times?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I mentioned it a few times because I know it helps you.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: It's helped thousands of people already, because I get the messages.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: So check it out, felixfrenzorggetfree.
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: And if you just only watched that today, then this little dip this morning that might scare the bejesus out of lesser people.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: What it does to you, because I know you're here it's encouraging you to actually get better, and that's what hard times do.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: Hard times make great people, and that's what hard times do.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Hard times make great people.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Tough times make great people.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Soft times make what I was going to say politicians A nuisance, but no, in all seriousness, a tough market is actually a great place to run.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: We haven't had one in a while, which is why we're going to be producing a lot of very soft, soft spined investors.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so check it out, felixransomorg, get free, do that right now.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: If you like, you can leave this stream.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: I will not be upset with you, because I know you'll be spending your time more wisely, because I'm going to run you through what's happening here today, that you need to really take better decisions and get you to your need, which is you know what I restarted with.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Macy's just announced more store closers.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Janine, you seem to be on top of that one.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: I've only ever been to Macy's in New York Fifth Avenue and to the one in Beverly Hills.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: The one in Beverly Hills felt a bit like a store that should be closing, so maybe that's not too bad.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: How did it go from four rules to three rules, says Jeremy?
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: It's kind of the same thing really.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Gary Newscum, yeah, that's the one.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Okay, let me show you this one here.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: And this is again Goldman Sachs.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: You know our beloved dear friends at Goldman Sachs.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You know our beloved dear friends at Goldman Sachs who really really care about the small man.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: And there are four lines or three lines on here.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Two of them are blue, because that way it will be easier.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It's the blue one.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Which blue one?
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: Oh, you know the one.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: You can hardly see the average return of the S&P and you can hardly see that if there is no recession, that line up here is the no recession line.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: So what does it say to you?
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: It says when the Fed first cuts, so you get a rate cut here, this is the moment you get the first rate cut, first cut.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: The first cut cuts the finest, the hardest, which we had right, we had the first rate cut in 2024.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: The market then either goes up or down and it depends entirely on whether you get a recession.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: So this up here is no recession and this gray line down here is a recession, when you have jobs data that's basically saying everybody and their dog got a job this week.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: What does that say to you?
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Does that say we're getting a recession or are we getting no recession?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: No recession, right?
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense to you?
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Does that make sense to you?
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Does this make sense to you?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: This chart so basically what they're saying at Goldman Sachs statistically, historically, since the first rate cut, the market goes up by approximately 20% in the following year if there is no recession.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: And it looks very much like there is going to be no recession, because otherwise we wouldn't have full employment, right?
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks for the one step.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: I think in probabilities, exactly.
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: So recession very, very less likely.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: And so why the heck are we upset about this?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Because it would be nice if we could get rate cuts and no recession.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, you can't have everything on the same day, right?
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: So today we have no recession and then later in the year, maybe in the summer, we start getting rate cuts again, and until then you're going to have to live without the rate cuts.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: So we start getting rate cuts again, and until then you're going to have to live without the rate cuts.
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: So is it a bad place to be?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: No, it's not.
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: It could be a tremendous entry point on a lot of the good stocks that we want to buy.