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The Trump-Mike Johnson-MTG Love Triangle · Pod Save America

0:20
Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
0:22
Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
0:22
Speaker 1: On today's show, Donald Trump embraces his embattled MAGA speaker
0:26
Speaker 1: at a bogus election fraud event. Republicans admit to the
0:29
Speaker 1: New York Times that they plan to help third-party candidates
0:32
Speaker 1: as a way to beat Joe Biden. And Trump wows
0:35
Speaker 1: Fox News by ordering Chick-fil-A. But first, voters keep saying
0:42
Speaker 1: their top issue is high prices. And we got an
0:45
Speaker 1: economic report this week that says inflation might be sticking
0:48
Speaker 1: around longer than we hope. New Consumer Price Index data
0:52
Speaker 1: shows prices rising more quickly than expected, driven mostly by
0:56
Speaker 1: the cost of housing and gas. Donald Trump celebrated the
1:00
Speaker 1: news with a post that reads, inflation is back and raging.
1:05
Speaker 1: The Fed will never be able to credibly lower interest
1:07
Speaker 1: rates because they want to protect the worst president in
1:10
Speaker 1: the history of the untied states. Untied states President Joe
1:16
Speaker 1: Biden responded to the news in a press event where
1:19
Speaker 1: he also laid out the choice in the election between
1:21
Speaker 1: him and Trump on the economy. Let's take a listen.
1:24
Speaker 3: Well, I do stand by my prediction that before the
1:26
Speaker 3: year is out, there will be a rate cut. This
1:28
Speaker 3: may delay it a month or so. I'm not sure
1:30
Speaker 3: of that. We don't know what the Fed is going
1:33
Speaker 3: to do for certain. But look, we have dramatically reduced
1:36
Speaker 3: inflation from 9% down close to 3%. We're in a
1:41
Speaker 3: situation where we're better situated than we were when we
1:44
Speaker 3: took office, where inflation was skyrocketing. And we have a
1:48
Speaker 3: plan to deal with it, whereas the opposition, my opposition,
1:52
Speaker 3: talks about two things. They just want to cut taxes
1:55
Speaker 3: for the wealthy and raise taxes on other people.
1:59
Speaker 1: So it seems like both Biden and Trump are very
2:02
Speaker 1: focused on what the Fed decides to do between now
2:04
Speaker 1: and November. What's your sense of the politics around these
2:09
Speaker 1: inflation reports and potential rate cuts?
2:12
Speaker 2: Well, John, I'm just going to go out on a
2:14
Speaker 2: limb and say that higher inflation, not great politics.
2:17
Speaker 1: Bad. There you go. Yes.
2:19
Speaker 2: That's why people listen to the ads for this podcast
2:22
Speaker 2: so they can get analysis like that. Inflation has been
2:25
Speaker 2: coming down. President Biden is right. They've made real progress.
2:28
Speaker 2: We'd like it to be coming down faster. The lower
2:30
Speaker 2: the prices, the better things are for the president. The
2:33
Speaker 2: potential rate cut is really interesting because it's one of
2:38
Speaker 2: the few variables in this campaign between two people who
2:42
Speaker 2: just ran against each other four years ago. It's this
2:45
Speaker 2: one thing that's standing out there, which is if the
2:47
Speaker 2: Fed were to cut rates, that would be a sign
2:51
Speaker 2: that the president has succeeded in in slowing inflation to
2:54
Speaker 2: a level where the Fed felt comfortable doing that. So
2:57
Speaker 2: that's positive news for the president. And then a rate
2:59
Speaker 2: cut would be a boost to the economy, something the
3:02
Speaker 2: market's anticipating. It would lower costs for borrowers, for people
3:07
Speaker 2: who want to make a decent buy a house, buy
3:09
Speaker 2: a car, borrow money to start a business. It would
3:12
Speaker 2: be a validation and it would be good for the president.
3:14
Speaker 2: And the sooner that happens, the longer their time is
3:16
Speaker 2: between the rate cut and the election for the benefits
3:19
Speaker 2: of that boost to help. If the Fed decides not
3:23
Speaker 2: to do that, that will be seen by the markets,
3:26
Speaker 2: by the press, a message amplified by Trump and the Republicans.
3:29
Speaker 2: The president has not succeeded in lowering inflation sufficiently. And
3:33
Speaker 2: the economy, it will remain hard and frustrating and painful
3:37
Speaker 2: to buy a house, buy a car, borrow money, start
3:39
Speaker 2: a business. And that would be on its face good
3:42
Speaker 2: for Trump. So you see this. I don't really understand
3:44
Speaker 2: Trump's message about why he can't. The economics and financial
3:48
Speaker 2: sense and understand the economy in Trump's truth there, let
3:51
Speaker 2: alone his spelling. questionable, but from a pure point of
3:54
Speaker 2: view is that a rate cut is good for Biden
3:56
Speaker 2: and is bad for Trump.
3:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, so people know the Fed is independent. And
4:03
Speaker 1: so there's very little that Biden or Trump can do
4:06
Speaker 1: about this. What Jerome Powell and the Fed decides to do, though,
4:11
Speaker 1: and traditionally, presidents are not supposed to pressure the Fed
4:15
Speaker 1: in any way, which is why you heard Biden making
4:18
Speaker 1: more of a prediction of what they might do than
4:21
Speaker 1: yelling at them about what they should do, which is
4:23
Speaker 1: basically what Donald Trump did when he was president. And so, yeah,
4:28
Speaker 1: they just have to wait and see. And originally, I
4:31
Speaker 1: think economists forecasted like three rate cuts between now and November.
4:35
Speaker 1: Now they're thinking one to two. Originally, they were hoping June, July.
4:40
Speaker 1: Now they're thinking maybe September. But yeah, there's both the
4:43
Speaker 1: symbolic effects and I think there's the real effects for people, right?
4:46
Speaker 1: Mortgage rates are around over 7% right now. you want
4:49
Speaker 1: to buy a car if you want to take out
4:51
Speaker 1: a loan credit card rate uh interest rates it's just
4:53
Speaker 1: they're they're they're all very high i'm wondering what happens
4:56
Speaker 1: when trump promises to fire jerome powell and replace him
4:59
Speaker 1: with someone who will immediately cut interest rates yeah i
5:02
Speaker 1: mean that is i mean.
5:03
Speaker 2: That's a i see that coming yes.
5:07
Speaker 1: It would be against norms for sure But could totally
5:11
Speaker 1: see it. Joe Biden, he won't do anything about Jerome Powell.
5:14
Speaker 1: Jerome Powell won't cut rates. And he's just sitting there
5:17
Speaker 1: letting inflation do it. You put me in there, I'll
5:19
Speaker 1: fire his ass on the first day. Put in someone
5:21
Speaker 1: who's cutting your interest rates.
5:23
Speaker 2: I mean, well, President Trump did jawbone the Fed, as
5:26
Speaker 2: you pointed out, the whole time he was in there.
5:27
Speaker 2: And he is not delivering this truth about the Fed
5:30
Speaker 2: from prison, right? He escaped the consequences of violating said norm.
5:35
Speaker 2: So yeah.
5:37
Speaker 1: So I loved that Biden ended by... laying out the
5:40
Speaker 1: choice between him and Trump on the economy. How do
5:42
Speaker 1: you think that message can evolve over the next few months?
5:45
Speaker 2: The story that Joe Biden needs to tell in this
5:47
Speaker 2: election is that Joe Biden will fight for you and
5:49
Speaker 2: your family, and Donald Trump will fight for himself and
5:52
Speaker 2: his rich friends. And taxes is probably the best way
5:54
Speaker 2: to tell that story. You guys talked about this on Tuesday,
5:59
Speaker 2: I think. Everyone's podcasting all the time now, so at
6:02
Speaker 2: some point in recent memory, you talked about it. But
6:05
Speaker 2: the Trump standing in Mar-a-Lago and telling his rich friends
6:08
Speaker 2: at a fundraiser where people paid nearly a million dollars
6:11
Speaker 2: a ticket that he was going to cut their taxes,
6:13
Speaker 2: and then those rich goons applauded him. If that moment
6:16
Speaker 2: had been caught on video, it would have been the
6:18
Speaker 2: greatest political gaffe in American history, hands down.
6:21
Speaker 1: It's like Mitt Romney 47% on steroids.
6:23
Speaker 2: It's a thousand times worse than that. Ron Klain, who
6:28
Speaker 2: I know we'll talk about later, once told me, we
6:31
Speaker 2: were working together on a political matter, Candidate did something,
6:34
Speaker 2: and when I briefed Ron on what it was, he
6:37
Speaker 2: told me that would be an A-plus answer to how
6:39
Speaker 2: to lose a presidential election. What Trump did is, if
6:43
Speaker 2: you were just trying to figure out the best way
6:45
Speaker 2: to not be president, it would be to do exactly that.
6:48
Speaker 2: And that's a story that Biden has to tell, is
6:50
Speaker 2: this is who Trump wants to help. And we've seen
6:52
Speaker 2: in polling that among working class voters of all races,
6:56
Speaker 2: the voters that Biden has been struggling with since 2020,
6:59
Speaker 2: their biggest concern about Trump is he's going to cut
7:01
Speaker 2: taxes for rich people.
7:03
Speaker 1: And you know what?
7:04
Speaker 2: Trump's going to do that because next year, at the
7:07
Speaker 2: end of 2025, the $ 2 trillion tax cut that overwhelmingly
7:10
Speaker 2: benefited corporations and the wealthy is set to expire. Joe
7:13
Speaker 2: Biden will let it expire. Donald Trump doesn't just want
7:15
Speaker 2: to renew it. He wants to make it more friendly
7:18
Speaker 2: to corporations, make the rate even lower. And framing the
7:21
Speaker 2: economy around that conversation about who Biden's going to fight
7:25
Speaker 2: for and who Trump's going to fight for is the
7:26
Speaker 2: absolute best sort of talent. I thought You can see
7:28
Speaker 2: Biden is in campaign mode now, right? Jennifer Palmer and
7:32
Speaker 2: I talked about this in the Univision interview, is that
7:34
Speaker 2: he is laser focused on what the best political message is,
7:37
Speaker 2: which is why he, at a press conference with a
7:38
Speaker 2: Japanese prime minister on a question on interest rates, he
7:41
Speaker 2: got to Trump's tax plan. And so he knows that.
7:45
Speaker 1: Yeah. And it's good that you mentioned that because the
7:47
Speaker 1: reason he just didn't say Donald Trump is because he
7:49
Speaker 1: was in the Rose Garden with the Japanese prime minister.
7:52
Speaker 1: So he said the opposition, but I'm sure he'll sharpen that.
7:55
Speaker 1: So people know, like, Extending the Trump tax cuts would
7:58
Speaker 1: cost $ 3. 5 trillion. And so Donald Trump wants to spend $ 3. 5
8:04
Speaker 1: trillion on extending a Trump tax cut that will give
8:08
Speaker 1: everyone who makes over a million dollars a $ 50, 000 tax cut.
8:14
Speaker 1: That's what that would mean for people making over a
8:15
Speaker 1: million dollars. $ 50, 000 if you extend the Trump tax cuts.
8:20
Speaker 1: And if you're in the bottom quarter, of the income brackets,
8:24
Speaker 1: you would get about $ 100 as a tax cut. That's
8:26
Speaker 1: what Donald Trump wants to do. That's a plan. And
8:29
Speaker 1: like you said, that is not like we got to
8:31
Speaker 1: figure out what the makeup of Congress is and all
8:32
Speaker 1: this kind of stuff. Like the tax cuts are expiring,
8:35
Speaker 1: so something has to happen. And if he's president, that's
8:37
Speaker 1: what he wants to do. And then to Biden's reference
8:40
Speaker 1: about he wants to raise taxes on everyone else, that
8:44
Speaker 1: is almost surely a reference to Trump's proposed tariffs, which
8:47
Speaker 1: have not gotten nearly enough coverage. because people are like, tariffs, boring,
8:52
Speaker 1: eyes glaze over, right? Trump, first of all, has enormous
8:55
Speaker 1: power as president to slap tariffs on goods, on foreign goods,
9:01
Speaker 1: without congressional approval. He can just do that. That's a
9:03
Speaker 1: power that presidents have. And he wants to propose 10%
9:08
Speaker 1: across the board tariffs on all imported goods from anywhere.
9:14
Speaker 1: He wants to do 60% tariff on imports from China
9:17
Speaker 1: and 100% tariff on foreign cars. So Center for American
9:22
Speaker 1: Progress crunched the numbers on this. This would mean a $ 1, 500
9:27
Speaker 1: tax increase for the typical household because of Trump's tariffs.
9:32
Speaker 1: And these are just something he could do on his own.
9:34
Speaker 1: So now imagine an economic plan from the economic genius,
9:38
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, that everyone gives so much credit for in
9:39
Speaker 1: the economy, who wants to give millionaires a $ 50, 000 tax
9:43
Speaker 1: cut and raise your taxes $ 1, 500. And that's just a start.
9:48
Speaker 1: There's a whole bunch of other economic plans that are terrible, too.
9:51
Speaker 1: You can see today he posted another video on his
9:54
Speaker 1: fake Twitter saying, Joe Biden's been saying I'm going to
9:57
Speaker 1: terminate the Affordable Care Act and I'm not going to
10:00
Speaker 1: terminate the Affordable Care Act. I'm going to make it better.
10:02
Speaker 1: Of course, Trump did say he would terminate the Affordable
10:04
Speaker 1: Care Act, did say he would repeal it, tried to
10:06
Speaker 1: repeal it when he was president, didn't have a replacement,
10:09
Speaker 1: didn't want to make it better. And now because he's
10:13
Speaker 1: looking at the polling a lot more on everything in
10:16
Speaker 1: this race, and just like abortion now, you can tell
10:19
Speaker 1: he's scared on ACA and he's trying to walk it back.
10:22
Speaker 2: The tariffs is interesting. And I will say it has
10:25
Speaker 2: not got enough coverage, not for lack of trying by you,
10:28
Speaker 2: because you have been really trying to drive the tariff
10:29
Speaker 2: message in podcast after podcast.
10:31
Speaker 4: But.
10:31
Speaker 1: It's a tax increase. It's also going to send inflation
10:35
Speaker 1: soaring and probably tip us into recession.
10:38
Speaker 2: The messaging on this, I think, is going to be
10:39
Speaker 2: really interesting. And I haven't seen research on it. But
10:43
Speaker 2: convincing people that a Republican like Donald Trump wants to
10:46
Speaker 2: raise their taxes is... challenging. So how you frame it
10:49
Speaker 2: is going to be interesting. And the way you would
10:53
Speaker 2: do this, the way we did it with Romney is
10:54
Speaker 2: you would say he's basically going to pay for a
10:57
Speaker 2: tax cut by the rich by asking you to pay
10:58
Speaker 2: a little more. That's not substantively accurate in this one
11:02
Speaker 2: because it's two separate things. But when Biden starts bringing
11:07
Speaker 2: this up more, I'm going to be interested to listen
11:09
Speaker 2: very carefully to the words he's using because it's going
11:10
Speaker 2: to be very clearly what they have found in their
11:13
Speaker 2: research to be the best way to.
11:14
Speaker 1: Make it stick. Yeah, I would like to see some
11:17
Speaker 1: more research on this, too. So one person who had
11:19
Speaker 1: some surprisingly candid thoughts on Biden's economic messaging this week
11:22
Speaker 1: was the president's former chief of staff, our friend Ron Klain.
11:25
Speaker 1: According to audio from an event that Politico obtained, Ron
11:29
Speaker 1: responded to a question from someone about why Biden isn't
11:32
Speaker 1: talking more about infrastructure by saying this, quote, I think
11:37
Speaker 1: the president is out there too much talking about bridges.
11:40
Speaker 1: Like I tell you, if you go to the grocery store,
11:42
Speaker 1: you go to the grocery store and, you know, eggs
11:44
Speaker 1: and milk are expensive. The fact that there's a fucking
11:46
Speaker 1: bridge is not, and then it was inaudible, but you
11:48
Speaker 1: can fill in whatever you want there. He then said
11:51
Speaker 1: that the president is not running for Congress. I think
11:54
Speaker 1: it's kind of a fool's errand. I think that it
11:56
Speaker 1: also doesn't get covered that much because, look, it's a
11:58
Speaker 1: fucking bridge, and how interesting is the bridge? It's a
12:01
Speaker 1: little interesting, but it's not a lot interesting. No argument
12:05
Speaker 1: from me there, Ron. I want to know who the
12:08
Speaker 1: idiot was who was like, why isn't he talking about
12:10
Speaker 1: infrastructure more? Who was that person?
12:12
Speaker 2: I mean, dude.
12:13
Speaker 1: Was it Pete Buttigieg?
12:15
Speaker 2: Was it Barack Obama?
12:17
Speaker 1: Was it Barack Obama? I'm thinking, like, who are the
12:19
Speaker 1: real infrastructure nerds that I know? So Ron later told
12:24
Speaker 1: Politico that he's fully aligned with the White House as, quote,
12:27
Speaker 1: the president's economic messaging has been more middle class oriented
12:31
Speaker 1: and less infrastructure centric since the State of the Union.
12:34
Speaker 1: I completely agree with Ron there. I'm sure that's what
12:36
Speaker 1: Ron had been referring to before when he was talking
12:39
Speaker 1: in the Politico event. And ultimately, this is just, you know,
12:42
Speaker 1: chum for the D.C. press. But I do think it
12:44
Speaker 1: illuminates a larger debate about, and we've talked about this before,
12:48
Speaker 1: how much Biden should focus on selling his economic accomplishments
12:52
Speaker 1: versus driving the economic contrast between him and Trump. What
12:57
Speaker 1: are your thoughts? I know where I stand.
13:00
Speaker 2: You're with Ron 100%?
13:02
Speaker 5: Yeah.
13:03
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, I think there's a lot of layers
13:05
Speaker 2: to this debate. Ron is 100% right about the challenge
13:10
Speaker 2: of trying to drive a message to the free press
13:12
Speaker 2: with Bridges.
13:13
Speaker 4: Right.
13:13
Speaker 2: I understand how the White– I have sat in many
13:17
Speaker 2: meetings trying to figure out what kind of events you're
13:19
Speaker 2: going to do in the White House. And one of
13:21
Speaker 2: the things the press likes is a good visual. And
13:23
Speaker 2: you know what's a good visual?
13:24
Speaker 1: A bridge.
13:25
Speaker 2: And so that's how you end up in front of
13:27
Speaker 2: bridges a lot. The challenge of it is obviously is
13:30
Speaker 2: the press covers what is going to happen or what
13:34
Speaker 2: is happening in that moment, not what happened in the past.
13:36
Speaker 2: So when you say, Last year during– I guess two
13:40
Speaker 2: years now? Two years ago during the bipartisan infrastructure bill,
13:42
Speaker 2: we passed money for this bridge, and that money is
13:45
Speaker 2: arriving today in the form of a giant check or whatever.
13:48
Speaker 2: That's just not going to drive coverage. So Ron is
13:52
Speaker 2: 100% right about that. I think he's also right that
13:54
Speaker 2: infrastructure is one of those issues that voters tell pollsters
13:57
Speaker 2: they care about, but it doesn't drive vote choice. Everyone
14:01
Speaker 2: wants better roads, better bridges, better airports. They hate potholes.
14:04
Speaker 2: All of that is true. it is not, I've never
14:07
Speaker 2: seen it be one of those issues that overcomes concerns
14:09
Speaker 2: on other issues, right? Where you're like, well, you know,
14:12
Speaker 2: the cost of milk is really high, but on my
14:14
Speaker 2: trip to the, to buy the expensive milk, I got
14:16
Speaker 2: to cross this bridge, right? It's not like that doesn't
14:18
Speaker 2: really work that way. However, and I, you know, a
14:21
Speaker 2: lot in 2022, we had a lot of conversations about
14:24
Speaker 2: like the Dems, hashtag Dems deliver message and why that
14:27
Speaker 2: was in how elections about the future, not the past.
14:29
Speaker 2: And voters don't reelect you because of what you did.
14:32
Speaker 2: They reelect you because of what they think you're going
14:34
Speaker 2: to do for them next. I think it is slightly
14:37
Speaker 2: different for Biden. And I think there is an argument for,
14:40
Speaker 2: and I think this is primarily through paid messaging for
14:42
Speaker 2: the reasons I just said, that he has to lay
14:44
Speaker 2: a foundation of some of the things that he has done.
14:47
Speaker 2: Because all of the polling shows that huge swaths of
14:51
Speaker 2: the electorate, including people who say they're planning on voting
14:53
Speaker 2: for Joe Biden, are completely unaware of a lot of
14:56
Speaker 2: his record of accomplishment. And there's this simply foundational work
15:00
Speaker 2: that you're going to have to do to build a
15:02
Speaker 2: level of credibility to talk about what you're going to
15:04
Speaker 2: do next, because of the things you have done in
15:06
Speaker 2: the past, and also to be able to have a
15:08
Speaker 2: critique against Trump. It's going to be hard to drive
15:11
Speaker 2: that tax message if people think you've done nothing on
15:13
Speaker 2: the economy over the last three years. And the best
15:17
Speaker 2: issue in all the polling is taking on big pharma
15:20
Speaker 2: to get Medicare to have lower prescription drugs, $ 35 cap
15:24
Speaker 2: on insulin. That sort of stuff is that you've had fights.
15:27
Speaker 2: You won those fights against special interests. You accomplished something
15:29
Speaker 2: that lowers costs, which is evidence that you can do,
15:31
Speaker 2: and it gives you credibility to drive that message against Trump.
15:34
Speaker 2: What I would say is when he's out there doing
15:37
Speaker 2: events that are designed to reach voters via the press,
15:41
Speaker 2: it's got to have to be something at some level
15:43
Speaker 2: of contrast and conflict, right? That will get it or
15:45
Speaker 2: something buzzy enough to get attention like the student loan
15:47
Speaker 2: announcement you guys talked about on Tuesday. But in the advertising,
15:51
Speaker 2: I do think you want to lay down targeted at
15:53
Speaker 2: Biden 2020 voters what he's done, right? You can do
15:57
Speaker 2: it in contrast to what Trump did not do. Biden
15:59
Speaker 2: did X, Trump did Y, Biden did X, Trump failed
16:02
Speaker 2: to do Y. But I do think there's work, there's
16:05
Speaker 2: educational work that still needs to be done with our
16:07
Speaker 2: voters that will help drive the message later on.
16:11
Speaker 1: I think that's right. I certainly think that paid media
16:15
Speaker 1: is a good way to sort of lay that foundation
16:17
Speaker 1: you were talking about as accomplishments. I would say that
16:20
Speaker 1: I think like other voices besides Biden's are probably more
16:24
Speaker 1: powerful advocates, right? If you have ads of people who
16:27
Speaker 1: got jobs because of the infrastructure or benefited from any
16:31
Speaker 1: of the initiatives that Biden has enacted over the last
16:34
Speaker 1: several years, I think that's going to be more powerful.
16:36
Speaker 1: I just think that for, I mean, you obviously have
16:38
Speaker 1: to do both. The question is, what's the mix? And
16:41
Speaker 1: I think the balance needs to be way more on
16:44
Speaker 1: the contrast with Trump and what's the agenda going forward
16:48
Speaker 1: than what you've already done. And of course, I'm sure
16:52
Speaker 1: it's all research-based if the campaign's thinking about this, but
16:56
Speaker 1: like what you wouldn't want is it to come from,
16:59
Speaker 1: you know, the bosses feeling annoyed that he's not getting
17:02
Speaker 1: enough credit for everything he did, which is a lot.
17:05
Speaker 1: This is a lot and some great stuff. But like
17:09
Speaker 1: the reality is he has to frame, the whole election
17:12
Speaker 1: has to be a choice between him and Donald Trump, right?
17:14
Speaker 1: That's the number one task. And so I do feel
17:16
Speaker 1: like You have to drive the economic contrast with Donald
17:19
Speaker 1: Trump every single day. And in a way, you have
17:22
Speaker 1: to relitigate the story of where we've been and where
17:27
Speaker 1: we are and where we need to go, because right
17:29
Speaker 1: now Donald Trump still has an advantage there. So like,
17:32
Speaker 1: you know, you could imagine Biden saying, look, we've come
17:34
Speaker 1: a long way since Donald Trump mismanaged a pandemic that
17:38
Speaker 1: crashed the economy and sent inflation soaring. But even though
17:41
Speaker 1: the economy is growing and corporations are making record profits,
17:45
Speaker 1: they won't reduce prices. And guess what? Donald Trump wants
17:49
Speaker 1: to give those corporations that refuse to lower prices another
17:53
Speaker 1: $ 3 trillion in tax cuts. And then he wants to
17:56
Speaker 1: make you pay more. And you know what I want
17:57
Speaker 1: to do? I want to keep fighting to keep lowering prices,
18:00
Speaker 1: keep lowering inflation, keep helping you. And like, that's the difference.
18:02
Speaker 1: And by the way, if you send me back to
18:04
Speaker 1: the White House and you give me a bigger Democratic Congress,
18:06
Speaker 1: I'll be able to lower prices even more and I'll
18:08
Speaker 1: be able to lower costs even more. And he won't,
18:10
Speaker 1: you know, like, I think it's just got to be
18:12
Speaker 1: that it's got to sort of tell the whole story.
18:14
Speaker 1: I think, One.
18:16
Speaker 2: Really important point you made there is that the best
18:18
Speaker 2: voices for this are not going to be Biden's voice.
18:20
Speaker 2: There need to be ads with Biden's voice, right? Like
18:22
Speaker 2: that ad, they ran right out of the State of
18:23
Speaker 2: the Union. People need to see him speaking, driving the message.
18:26
Speaker 2: But the most persuasive ad for the voters who we
18:29
Speaker 2: are losing or that we need to win back or
18:31
Speaker 2: keep in our camp is going to be other people, right?
18:34
Speaker 2: Union leaders, workers, families that benefit. That is going to
18:38
Speaker 2: be true. All the people who did ads in 2022
18:41
Speaker 2: and 2023 said that those are the ads that always
18:44
Speaker 2: focus group the best. I also think it's probably fair
18:47
Speaker 2: to say that it's probably a mistake to ever run
18:48
Speaker 2: a single ad that's a straight positive. It should probably
18:52
Speaker 2: be all– if you got 30 seconds, 15 on what
18:55
Speaker 2: Biden did, 15 on what Trump would do, didn't do,
18:58
Speaker 2: did wrong, right? You got 60, 30, 30, right? Or
19:00
Speaker 2: even if it's 15, 45. So there needs to be
19:03
Speaker 2: contrast everywhere. But I still think there has to be
19:05
Speaker 2: some– we just have to tell people some things that
19:08
Speaker 2: Biden did to give them permission to come back, right?
19:12
Speaker 2: Because if you think he's done nothing, you're not going
19:14
Speaker 2: to vote for him again.
19:15
Speaker 1: No, I think other voices do the validation about accomplishments.
19:18
Speaker 1: And I think you want Biden's voice out there showing
19:21
Speaker 1: that he's continuing to fight for working people where Donald
19:25
Speaker 1: Trump will not. And so you have him do the
19:27
Speaker 1: fighting for you message and you have other people do
19:30
Speaker 1: the and here's what we've already accomplished message. All right,
19:44
Speaker 1: let's talk about what Trump's been up to this week.
19:46
Speaker 1: Our favorite criminal defendant slash Republican nominee is preparing for
19:49
Speaker 1: next week's... hush money trial. It is Florida Beach Club,
19:52
Speaker 1: where he's holding an event Friday morning with MAGA Mike Johnson,
19:56
Speaker 1: the speaker who thinks that Noah brought dinos on the ark.
19:59
Speaker 1: According to USA Today, the two men will talk about
20:01
Speaker 1: legislation to, quote, elevate the issue of non-citizens voting in
20:05
Speaker 1: federal elections, which is not actually an issue since it's
20:09
Speaker 1: against the law. It's a felony. And according to the
20:11
Speaker 1: Right-Wing Heritage Foundation... This has only happened 24 times in
20:15
Speaker 1: the last 20 years, 24 instances of an undocumented immigrant
20:20
Speaker 1: voting in a federal election. That's what we're dealing with
20:23
Speaker 1: here because it's a felony. And if you are caught,
20:27
Speaker 1: it's not only a year in jail, but you probably
20:28
Speaker 1: get deported. So either or you either get deported or
20:31
Speaker 1: you spend a year in jail. The reporting suggests that
20:33
Speaker 1: the real reason for the event is that Trump wants
20:35
Speaker 1: everyone to know that he's standing by Mike Johnson, despite
20:38
Speaker 1: the attempt by human clickbait Marjorie Taylor Greene to oust
20:42
Speaker 1: him as speaker. Large Marge is big mad that Johnson
20:46
Speaker 1: worked with Democrats to keep the government open, and she's
20:48
Speaker 1: threatened to trigger a motion to vacate if he lets
20:51
Speaker 1: the House vote on Ukraine funding or pass a reauthorization
20:55
Speaker 1: of something known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence
20:58
Speaker 1: Surveillance Act. which allows the government to spy on the
21:02
Speaker 1: communications of foreigners outside the United States who might pose
21:06
Speaker 1: a national security threat to America. Trump also doesn't want
21:09
Speaker 1: that to pass because he thinks this is the part
21:12
Speaker 1: of the law that was used to spy on his
21:13
Speaker 1: campaign in 2016, which isn't true. He's confusing 702 with
21:17
Speaker 1: another part of the surveillance law, which he's also done before.
21:21
Speaker 1: He confused this thing while he was president once before,
21:26
Speaker 1: had to issue a follow-up statement, ended up signing the
21:29
Speaker 1: Pfizer reauthorization law because he realized that he had fucked up.
21:32
Speaker 1: And now, a couple years later, he's doing it again.
21:35
Speaker 1: These are the people, Dan, that we want in charge
21:38
Speaker 1: of our government. These are the people that we want.
21:39
Speaker 5: Speak for yourself, John. These are the people we want
21:42
Speaker 5: to protect us from national security threats. Mike Johnson, Marjorie
21:46
Speaker 5: Taylor Greene, Donald Trump. They're on top of the ball.
21:50
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Mar-a-Lago event, which will probably have
21:53
Speaker 1: happened by the time you're all hearing this. So I
21:55
Speaker 1: can see why Johnson wants to be seen with Trump
21:57
Speaker 1: to save his job. Why do you think Trump is
22:00
Speaker 1: throwing Johnson a lifeline here?
22:03
Speaker 2: I think there are two reasons, one strategic, one petty.
22:07
Speaker 2: The strategic reason is, and you've seen some of the
22:08
Speaker 2: reporting on this, is that the Trump campaign is very
22:11
Speaker 2: uncomfortable with the image of the party that the chaos
22:16
Speaker 2: in the Republican House keeps giving. And if we have
22:19
Speaker 2: another speaker debacle.
22:20
Speaker 1: And it takes weeks- Framingly smart of them.
22:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's exactly right. That is the right political analysis.
22:26
Speaker 2: And so- Saving him is in Trump's interest. The petty
22:30
Speaker 2: thing is that Trump likes to own people. He likes
22:32
Speaker 2: to have leverage over people. So by making Mike Johnson
22:36
Speaker 2: come down to Mar-a-Lago and appear at this ridiculous event
22:40
Speaker 2: and bend the knee to Trump, Trump has leverage on
22:43
Speaker 2: him for as long as he needs it, right? Whether
22:45
Speaker 2: it's keeping people alive through this election, he needs them
22:48
Speaker 2: to spin up another cockamamie investigation of someone in the
22:52
Speaker 2: Biden family, they can do that. If Trump wins and
22:55
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson survives long enough to be Speaker of the
22:56
Speaker 2: House under that presidency, he's got leverage on him there.
23:00
Speaker 2: And he wants Mike Johnson to know that he controls
23:03
Speaker 2: his fate, and this will do that. Now, I will
23:05
Speaker 2: also say, I would pay money to hear the conversation
23:10
Speaker 2: between these two mix. I think it's possible no one
23:12
Speaker 2: has ever had less in common than these two. Mike
23:15
Speaker 2: Pence looks like a frat boy compared to Mike Johnson.
23:18
Speaker 1: You think Mike Johnson is going to try to get
23:20
Speaker 1: Trump to become his accountability partner and use Covenant Eyes,
23:23
Speaker 1: download Covenant Eyes?
23:26
Speaker 2: I don't even know. There are a lot of things
23:28
Speaker 2: I could say here. I don't think I should say
23:31
Speaker 2: any of them. Just move along.
23:33
Speaker 1: Do you think we could get an ad that includes
23:36
Speaker 1: Covenant Eyes by the end of the campaign? I really
23:39
Speaker 1: think that there's a lot of young men that are
23:44
Speaker 1: sort of drifting towards the Republican Party. I think they
23:46
Speaker 1: would find that... They find that notable that the Republican
23:50
Speaker 1: speaker of the House, Donald Trump's new pet, likes to
23:53
Speaker 1: monitor his son's porn intake.
23:55
Speaker 2: I mean, we know lots of people, John. Do you
23:57
Speaker 2: want to? Should we get this done?
23:58
Speaker 1: Well, you know what? I'm podcasting for 80% of my
24:02
Speaker 1: life now. So I just say things on the air
24:04
Speaker 1: and hopefully someone picks it up.
24:06
Speaker 2: Well, I'm only at like 45% right now because I only.
24:10
Speaker 1: Have- I don't have time to reach out to anyone else.
24:11
Speaker 2: I mean, you're either podcasting, you're just podcasting 24 seven,
24:15
Speaker 2: that is true. But yeah, I think we can, let's
24:17
Speaker 2: work on this project. I'm sure there was someone who
24:20
Speaker 2: would love to take this on.
24:21
Speaker 1: But you're right. You know that Donald Trump is telling
24:23
Speaker 1: all of his advisors and friends how weird Mike Johnson is.
24:27
Speaker 1: You know he's had that conversation.
24:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's going to make some sort of completely inappropriate
24:33
Speaker 2: comment or joke in front of Mike Johnson just to
24:35
Speaker 2: watch him just get squirm.
24:37
Speaker 1: Mm-hmm, yeah. What are the chances that Mike Johnson goes
24:40
Speaker 1: the way of Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, John Boehner?
24:45
Speaker 2: I mean, if he's going to appear with Trump tomorrow
24:47
Speaker 2: slash today, probably he's in great shape.
24:51
Speaker 1: You think he's safe? I.
24:53
Speaker 2: I would find it hard to imagine that of all people,
24:55
Speaker 2: I mean, anything is possible. These people are all nuts.
24:58
Speaker 2: But as long as Trump's happy with them, I think
25:00
Speaker 2: he'll probably keep his job. And if Trump tells these people,
25:02
Speaker 2: do not toss them overboard because that will hurt my campaign,
25:05
Speaker 2: we've already seen they're willing to throw Ukraine and this U.S.
25:08
Speaker 2: border over. So I think they'll save Mike Johnson for him.
25:10
Speaker 2: It does seem.
25:12
Speaker 1: Like Marjorie Taylor Greene, she's ready to go. And it
25:16
Speaker 1: does seem like Ukraine could get done now, that Mike
25:20
Speaker 1: Johnson might put it on the floor. It seems like
25:21
Speaker 1: there's now going to be another vote on faiza on
25:24
Speaker 1: friday and um if she's angry like it's not going
25:28
Speaker 1: to take too many people to throw him overboard uh
25:31
Speaker 1: unless you know it seems like if if he does
25:34
Speaker 1: put ukraine up for a vote then the democrats will
25:36
Speaker 1: save him but if the democrats save him i don't
25:39
Speaker 1: i don't i think if the democrats save him and
25:41
Speaker 1: he remains speaker i could see him remaining speaker through
25:45
Speaker 1: November because Trump doesn't want him to leave. And then the,
25:48
Speaker 1: and then Republicans don't have another choice and they don't
25:51
Speaker 1: want the headache of going through that bullshit again with 30,000
25:54
Speaker 1: votes or whatever. Um, but I can't imagine him then
25:59
Speaker 1: at that point staying, uh, into 2025.
26:01
Speaker 2: I mean, it's worth noting. He seems particularly bad at
26:04
Speaker 2: his job.
26:06
Speaker 1: And lost. It's like sort of a, like a sad
26:09
Speaker 1: lost puppy. I mean, he's basically a person. How did
26:11
Speaker 1: I get here?
26:12
Speaker 2: He's basically a person who won a contest to be speaker,
26:15
Speaker 2: like a sweepstakes. He has no idea what he's doing.
26:17
Speaker 2: It is absolutely absurd. He's King Ralph, basically. I think
26:21
Speaker 2: that's the way you'd put it. Two things I think
26:24
Speaker 2: are likely to happen. If Trump wins, maybe Trump keeps him.
26:28
Speaker 2: Who knows? But they'll probably also change the rules the
26:32
Speaker 2: next time around, too, on the motion to vacate.
26:35
Speaker 1: Oh, so that one– person can't trigger a motion to vacate.
26:39
Speaker 2: Theoretically, it's possible that the majority could be slightly larger,
26:42
Speaker 2: where it gets a little bit harder to do that.
26:44
Speaker 2: There's a lot of people who do not want to,
26:46
Speaker 2: I think, stick with this plan. It's harder to undo
26:50
Speaker 2: in the middle of a session, but they're going to
26:51
Speaker 2: have to, in a new Congress, repass all the rules again.
26:55
Speaker 1: We should talk about the policy here. Trump and his goons... Why?
26:59
Speaker 2: Did I falsely even wake up and pot-save the world?
27:01
Speaker 1: What happened? Sorry, the policy consequences of this political mess.
27:09
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you. Or can we do the political consequences
27:12
Speaker 2: of the policy mess?
27:12
Speaker 1: That's where I'm most comfortable. We started there, of course.
27:15
Speaker 1: All right, all right. So Trump and his goons, they
27:17
Speaker 1: don't want to help Ukraine because they are huffing Putin's propaganda,
27:22
Speaker 1: and they don't want to let the government spy on
27:25
Speaker 1: potential foreign terrorists because they mistakenly think the law was
27:29
Speaker 1: used to spy on Trump. Seems like not a great
27:31
Speaker 1: way to run a railroad. I don't know. What do
27:32
Speaker 1: you think? I mean, I think to the- And do
27:35
Speaker 1: you think that there could be some political hay to
27:38
Speaker 1: be made here?
27:39
Speaker 2: You would hope so, that the absolute rank incompetence of
27:44
Speaker 2: this Republican House would be something that would give the
27:46
Speaker 2: American people pause before they return them to the majority.
27:51
Speaker 2: We have not seen a dramatic shift in the polling
27:56
Speaker 2: through all of this chaos, right? It's just, I mean,
27:59
Speaker 2: the generic ballot is.
28:00
Speaker 1: Kind of- Yeah, the generic– well, yeah, the approval of
28:04
Speaker 1: Congress is pretty grim, but it always has been.
28:07
Speaker 2: But yeah, but it's not specific to the Republicans in
28:09
Speaker 2: a way that is commiserate with what they've actually done here.
28:14
Speaker 2: In 2014, after the Republicans shut down the government to
28:18
Speaker 2: try to repeal the ACA, you saw this dramatic change
28:21
Speaker 2: in approval of the parties in Congress. We haven't seen
28:24
Speaker 2: that as much here because people probably– just in the
28:27
Speaker 2: media environment we're in, We can't get people to know
28:29
Speaker 2: what the President of the United States is getting done
28:30
Speaker 2: in their own communities. Getting them to understand the failure
28:34
Speaker 2: to pass the rule of the FISA bill is incredibly challenging.
28:38
Speaker 2: That doesn't mean we can't make that case over the
28:40
Speaker 2: next nine months. People are not dialed into what is
28:45
Speaker 2: happening in Congress right now. I think it's possible that,
28:48
Speaker 2: and this is where Trump's campaign instincts are correct, that
28:50
Speaker 2: if another speaker got tossed and we had another three-week
28:53
Speaker 2: period with no speaker and all these votes. Now people
28:56
Speaker 2: are more focused on the election. That could have an impact.
28:59
Speaker 2: But on the current trajectory, I'm just not sure. People
29:03
Speaker 2: need to feel the pain of this chaos, and they
29:05
Speaker 2: haven't felt that yet. They avoided a government shutdown. They
29:08
Speaker 2: avoided default in the past. Those are the sort of
29:11
Speaker 2: things where people wake up and see what happens. There's
29:16
Speaker 2: not that sort of cliff or looming tax raise if
29:19
Speaker 2: they don't pass this or something important expiring. It's just
29:23
Speaker 2: embarrassing chaos and opportunity cost. And we have to work
29:26
Speaker 2: a little bit harder, I think, to get the public
29:28
Speaker 2: to see that.
29:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do think they provide– these examples provide like
29:32
Speaker 1: proof points in the larger story we want to tell
29:36
Speaker 1: about Trump and the Republican Party. It's just another example
29:39
Speaker 1: of them. jeopardizing national security for the sake of Trump's
29:43
Speaker 1: deranged grievances and conspiracies. Like, you know, they don't give
29:47
Speaker 1: a shit about preventing World War Three with Putin rolling
29:50
Speaker 1: through Europe. They don't give a shit about preventing terrorist
29:53
Speaker 1: attacks against the United States. And look, there are legitimate
29:57
Speaker 1: reasons to want to put stronger protections in place in
30:01
Speaker 1: this Pfizer reauthorization. One of the problems is there's a
30:04
Speaker 1: concern that when the government spies on foreigners' communications, who
30:09
Speaker 1: they believe are national security threats, that sometimes if those
30:13
Speaker 1: foreigners are communicating with Americans, then American citizens' communications can
30:17
Speaker 1: get swept up. And so some people want more protections.
30:21
Speaker 1: Other people say it's sort of hard to design these protections.
30:24
Speaker 1: It gets into the weeds. But anyway, That's some of
30:26
Speaker 1: the reasons that like some progressive Democrats are worried about FISA.
30:29
Speaker 1: That's not the reason Republicans are worried. Republicans are just like, oh,
30:35
Speaker 1: Donald Trump mistakenly thinks that this is a tool that
30:38
Speaker 1: was used to spy on his campaign and we're just
30:40
Speaker 1: going to go all in on believing it. That's it.
30:43
Speaker 2: It's just reflexive idiocy, right? They just, I mean, it's
30:46
Speaker 2: so dumb. There is a legitimate policy debate here. That's
30:48
Speaker 2: not what the Republicans are doing.
30:50
Speaker 1: Yeah, which is usually the case these days. So here's
30:53
Speaker 1: a story I found unsettling. The New York Times reported
30:57
Speaker 1: this week that pro-Trump super PACs and outside groups plan
31:00
Speaker 1: to boost support for RFK Jr. and other third-party candidates
31:04
Speaker 1: because Trump and his campaign believe that any vote for
31:09
Speaker 1: a third-party candidate is a vote to help Donald Trump.
31:12
Speaker 1: So these groups plan to elevate RFK as a, quote,
31:16
Speaker 1: champion for choice and also a champion for the environment
31:20
Speaker 1: in order to attract more liberal voters who might not
31:23
Speaker 1: want to support Biden or They want to elevate Green
31:26
Speaker 1: Party candidate Jill Stein and target young people and progressives
31:30
Speaker 1: with ads that tout Biden's record on domestic oil production,
31:34
Speaker 1: which is now at a record high. And they're also
31:36
Speaker 1: thinking about running ads in Dearborn, Michigan and other heavily
31:40
Speaker 1: Muslim and Arab-American areas, thanking Joe Biden for standing with Israel.
31:46
Speaker 1: Very cynical. Very cynical. Also potentially very smart. How much
31:50
Speaker 1: does this strategy concern you, Dan? And are you surprised
31:52
Speaker 1: they're admitting it to The New York Times?
31:55
Speaker 2: The strategy does concern me. It's quite concerning, and this
31:58
Speaker 2: is one of the reasons why we've been so concerned
32:00
Speaker 2: about third-party candidates. This is not a new strategy. This
32:04
Speaker 2: is a lot of what some Trump people and the
32:07
Speaker 2: Russians did in 2016. This is why Jared Kushner helped
32:11
Speaker 2: Kanye West get on the ballot in 2020.
32:14
Speaker 1: Oh, yeah. Forgot about that.
32:15
Speaker 6: Wow.
32:16
Speaker 2: Just like, what a world where Kanye West ran for
32:19
Speaker 2: president at the urging of the president's son-in-law, and it's barely.
32:22
Speaker 1: A foot- Completely memory-holed it. Yes. I mean, voters- And
32:26
Speaker 1: I do this for a living.
32:27
Speaker 2: Yes. Voters also clearly didn't care that much either, but
32:31
Speaker 2: he was on the ballot in Wisconsin, I think. That's
32:33
Speaker 2: how fucking insane that was. He didn't do very well,
32:37
Speaker 2: for the record.
32:38
Speaker 1: No, he didn't.
32:38
Speaker 2: But it is- Not surprising that they told everyone because
32:43
Speaker 2: one of the true hallmarks of the Trump era is
32:46
Speaker 2: you do all your dirt in public. You announce your crimes,
32:49
Speaker 2: you read everyone in your plans. You just, just be
32:52
Speaker 2: as public as humanly possible as they always are. And
32:55
Speaker 2: of course they told the New York times because they
32:57
Speaker 2: want to seem really smart and they want to raise
32:59
Speaker 2: more money for this. It's the other thing, right? The
33:01
Speaker 2: fact that one of the things this story points out is,
33:03
Speaker 2: and I did not know this, that one of Jill
33:06
Speaker 2: Stein's biggest supporters in 2016, was a major Trump donor.
33:12
Speaker 1: I didn't know that either.
33:13
Speaker 2: Yeah. And we talked a lot, especially when Liz Smith,
33:18
Speaker 2: who's working on the third-party stuff for the DNC, was
33:21
Speaker 2: on the podcast a few weeks ago, that Tim Mellon,
33:23
Speaker 2: who's one of the biggest donors to Trump's super PAC,
33:25
Speaker 2: is also the biggest donor to RFK Jr. 's super PAC.
33:28
Speaker 2: We know what's going on here. But yeah, it's very, very,
33:33
Speaker 2: very concerning, and in part because this is an election
33:35
Speaker 2: where the electorate is very open to such appeals, right?
33:39
Speaker 2: And because of how they feel about the choice they have,
33:42
Speaker 2: about how they feel about both parties, about how they
33:44
Speaker 2: feel about politics generally, is that this is a very
33:48
Speaker 2: target-rich environment for people who want to enact this strategy.
33:52
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon is actually on the record.
33:55
Speaker 2: Speaking of people who like to do all their dirt
33:58
Speaker 2: in public.
34:00
Speaker 1: And he said, the path to victory here is clearly
34:02
Speaker 1: maximizing the reach of these left-wing alternatives and no Republican
34:06
Speaker 1: knows that oil production under Biden is higher than ever,
34:09
Speaker 1: but Jill Stein's people do, and the college kids are
34:11
Speaker 1: furious about it. Just the most, most cynical thing you
34:16
Speaker 1: could possibly say is that Trump's out there saying Joe
34:20
Speaker 1: Biden is not producing enough oil, not producing enough American energy,
34:24
Speaker 1: and all the gas prices are high because of that,
34:26
Speaker 1: when the truth is all of these people know that
34:28
Speaker 1: oil production is higher than ever. And now they're going
34:31
Speaker 1: to use that as a cudgel for progressives who are
34:34
Speaker 1: upset that oil production is higher than ever. It's just,
34:37
Speaker 1: you know. There's also a couple other interesting parts of
34:42
Speaker 1: the piece that the Trump team polling shows that RFK Jr.
34:47
Speaker 1: pulls more votes from Biden than Trump, which we had
34:49
Speaker 1: suspected and seen in some public polling, but it was
34:52
Speaker 1: confirmed by the Trump team polling. And it's especially true
34:54
Speaker 1: among Latino voters. Did you see that in Arizona? They
34:58
Speaker 1: have Biden beating Trump among Latino voters today. in a
35:01
Speaker 1: two-way in Arizona, but when it's the full ballot, then
35:05
Speaker 1: Trump is winning among Latino voters by a good margin.
35:08
Speaker 2: There's a poll of RFK Jr. Latino voters that's making
35:11
Speaker 2: the rounds in Democratic politics right now that is quite, quite,
35:14
Speaker 2: quite scary.
35:16
Speaker 1: Trump, although, is reportedly worried about losing the anti-vaxxers to
35:21
Speaker 1: RFK Jr. and has even floated RFK Jr. to some
35:25
Speaker 1: people as a possible running mate because he said he
35:27
Speaker 1: likes the sound of Trump-Kennedy. I know. It's fun to
35:31
Speaker 1: talk about this piece and also scary. But I think
35:34
Speaker 1: that the Trump people and Bannon and all the rest
35:37
Speaker 1: of the idiots have given Democrats like a lot of
35:40
Speaker 1: fodder with this piece to strengthen the argument that Liz
35:44
Speaker 1: and other people are making about these third party candidates.
35:46
Speaker 1: Because it's one thing to say, you know, you got
35:49
Speaker 1: to vote for Joe Biden. Don't go third party because
35:52
Speaker 1: we got to stand up to Donald Trump. And it's
35:55
Speaker 1: a different thing. And I think it's a little more
35:56
Speaker 1: effective to say Donald Trump, Donald Trump. believes that a
36:01
Speaker 1: vote for anyone but Biden is a vote for Donald Trump.
36:04
Speaker 1: Donald Trump wants you to vote third party so he
36:07
Speaker 1: can win. That's what his campaign thinks they can win with.
36:11
Speaker 1: And so every single criticism of Joe Biden, all they
36:14
Speaker 1: need to do is peel votes away from Joe Biden
36:16
Speaker 1: to keep people home, to get people voting for third
36:18
Speaker 1: party candidates. And Donald Trump thinks that's what's going to
36:22
Speaker 1: get him to win. And so I do think that
36:24
Speaker 1: that's helpful. And I wonder if this Trump war, like,
36:28
Speaker 1: do you think the Democrats... can cause any similar mischief
36:33
Speaker 1: with the third party candidates with elevating anyone like Trump is?
36:36
Speaker 1: I mean, it's different, right?
36:38
Speaker 2: Because it's... I mean, I could give you 10 ideas
36:40
Speaker 2: on how to do that right now. Like, absolutely.
36:43
Speaker 1: You think that Biden should praise Trump for making the vaccines,
36:49
Speaker 1: for getting the vaccine, the COVID vaccine?
36:51
Speaker 2: No, I would not do that. But I mean, there's
36:54
Speaker 2: nothing illegal about what you're doing here, right?
36:57
Speaker 1: I mean.
36:58
Speaker 2: It doesn't have to be legal. These guys will probably
37:00
Speaker 2: stumble ass backwards into crimes into this by fake robocalls
37:05
Speaker 2: and stuff like that. But you can very clearly have
37:09
Speaker 2: an effort which highlights elements of RFK Jr. 's record
37:14
Speaker 2: on vaccines, on the border, on what he said about
37:18
Speaker 2: January 6th to a certain set of voters. You could
37:22
Speaker 2: very clearly find voters. It's pretty easy to find them
37:26
Speaker 2: on Facebook. and elsewhere, people who patronize certain anti-vax sites,
37:31
Speaker 2: who follow certain anti-vax influencers, and target them with messages
37:36
Speaker 2: about thanking RFK Jr. for standing up against Big Pharma
37:40
Speaker 2: when even Trump wanted to push the vaccine. There is
37:47
Speaker 2: no reason why Democrats can't also try to drive some
37:50
Speaker 2: voters into RFK Jr. 's camp. Now, that is more
37:52
Speaker 2: challenging because as we sit here today, a larger portion
37:57
Speaker 2: of Biden's coalition from 2020 is wandering than Trump's, right?
38:03
Speaker 2: In that New York Times-Santa poll, I think the numbers
38:05
Speaker 2: are a little extreme. Biden's getting, I think, like 85%
38:08
Speaker 2: of his vote, and Trump's getting 97% of his. It's
38:10
Speaker 2: probably– Trump has an advantage, but it's maybe not that large.
38:14
Speaker 2: So there's just more potential disinfected Democrats who can move,
38:19
Speaker 2: and having Jill Stein is helpful there. But there's no
38:21
Speaker 2: reason why Democrats should not be trying to peel off
38:25
Speaker 2: Trump supporters and push them into RFK Jr.
38:27
Speaker 4: 's camp.
38:28
Speaker 1: Yeah. And I mean, I was joking about Biden saying that.
38:31
Speaker 1: But I do think like like footage of Trump, like
38:35
Speaker 1: getting the vaccine, urging people to get the vaccine, talking
38:38
Speaker 1: about that, talking about like basically the the stupid campaign
38:42
Speaker 1: that DeSantis was trying to run against him, where he
38:44
Speaker 1: somehow like what, you know, like Trump was for shutdowns
38:47
Speaker 1: and standing with Fauci and all that kind of stuff.
38:49
Speaker 1: I do think targeted ads and certain to certain voters
38:53
Speaker 1: who are Trump voters now, but would be maybe RFK Jr.
38:57
Speaker 1: Curious could could be effective.
38:58
Speaker 2: People are going to be pretty mad about this. I'm
39:00
Speaker 2: going to just foreshadow that, that we will be, that
39:04
Speaker 2: these ideas would be fomenting and spreading anti-vax sentiment. So
39:07
Speaker 2: there's probably a way to do this that doesn't tip
39:10
Speaker 2: over into that.
39:12
Speaker 1: No, that's why you don't spread it by, you just say,
39:14
Speaker 1: thank you, President Trump. It's just like they want to
39:17
Speaker 1: do with Biden in Israel in Dearborn, right? You say,
39:20
Speaker 1: thank you, President Trump, for standing up to the anti-vaxxers.
39:23
Speaker 1: And getting the vaccine, you do it that way.
39:26
Speaker 2: There's lots of pictures of Trump with Fauci from those
39:28
Speaker 2: press conferences in the early spring.
39:30
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah. It's not a negative ad. It's a positive ad.
39:32
Speaker 1: It's thanking Donald Trump.
39:33
Speaker 2: And also some of the anti-corporate stuff with RFK Jr.
39:36
Speaker 2: You know, if you haven't, if folks have not listened
39:37
Speaker 2: to it, I highly recommend, I think it's the most
39:40
Speaker 2: recent episode of Sarah Longwell's Focus Group podcast where they
39:42
Speaker 2: did both 2020 Trump voters and 2020 Biden voters who
39:46
Speaker 2: are supporting or considering supporting RFK Jr.
39:49
Speaker 1: And it is.
39:50
Speaker 2: It's a very eye-opening conversation, but it gives you a
39:52
Speaker 2: roadmap of what is appealing about RFK Jr., in large
39:58
Speaker 2: part in ignorance, particularly among Democratic voters, that there are
40:02
Speaker 2: the threads you could pull to drive that message.
40:05
Speaker 1: Yeah, that was– I don't know if I've listened to
40:08
Speaker 1: a focus group of voters that have said more factually
40:11
Speaker 1: inaccurate things than in that focus group and listened to
40:15
Speaker 1: a lot of focus groups.
40:16
Speaker 2: The Biden voting chemist who was considering RFK Jr. despite
40:21
Speaker 2: him being wrong on all the science. Yeah, that one
40:23
Speaker 2: really caused me to pull my car over.
40:28
Speaker 1: That was unsettling. That was unsettling. But these voters that
40:32
Speaker 1: we're worried about, this is going back to our original
40:35
Speaker 1: point here, The challenge with these third party voters is
40:37
Speaker 1: that they are so tuned out from politics, from the news,
40:43
Speaker 1: so skeptical of institutions, so distrustful of all politicians that
40:48
Speaker 1: like reaching them and persuading them is going to be,
40:51
Speaker 1: I think, enormously difficult. And I think one of the
40:54
Speaker 1: biggest challenges in the campaign. And ideally, maybe for Biden,
41:00
Speaker 1: maybe some of them just you know, stay home who
41:03
Speaker 1: are going to vote for Trump or RFK Jr. But
41:05
Speaker 1: I think those, the Biden 2020 voters that were thinking
41:08
Speaker 1: about drifting are the ones that you're going to want
41:11
Speaker 1: to spend most of the time on.
41:12
Speaker 2: And the way you do that is you just shine
41:14
Speaker 2: a huge light on who RFK Jr. is and who
41:18
Speaker 2: wants him to win, who's funding him. Like this article,
41:20
Speaker 2: like that quote from Steve Bannon, just it's sunlight is
41:24
Speaker 2: the best way to deal with RFK Jr.
41:29
Speaker 1: I think that's right. And I think it's a, it,
41:31
Speaker 1: At first, I was like, well, maybe you want to
41:32
Speaker 1: go after him for individual positions that would piss off
41:35
Speaker 1: certain groups of voters. But I do think you've got
41:37
Speaker 1: to go just the overall, the strategy here and link
41:42
Speaker 1: him to Trump, link all these third party candidates to Trump.
41:45
Speaker 1: Trump wants third party candidates to do well so he
41:48
Speaker 1: can win. Because I think that if you were trying
41:50
Speaker 1: to convince someone the day before the election who was
41:53
Speaker 1: thinking of voting third party, you'd do that, right? You'd
41:56
Speaker 1: be like, you really don't like Trump. then voting third
41:59
Speaker 1: party is a really good way to make him president. Okay,
42:15
Speaker 1: before we go, we got to talk about the biggest
42:17
Speaker 1: story of the week, one that got wall-to-wall coverage on
42:21
Speaker 1: the country's most popular cable channel, Donald Trump's visit to
42:24
Speaker 1: Chick-fil-A in Atlanta on Wednesday, where he put on a
42:27
Speaker 1: true masterclass in retail politics. Here's Fox News anchor Martha
42:32
Speaker 1: McCallum and guest Clay Travis struggling to contain themselves. You
42:36
Speaker 1: know what, Clay, hold on.
42:37
Speaker 4: We're going to show a little bit from that, from
42:40
Speaker 4: Donald Trump buying everybody milkshakes and chicken at Chick-fil-A.
42:43
Speaker 2: Watch.
42:44
Speaker 1: Can I have 30 milkshakes and also some chicken that
42:49
Speaker 1: we're going to.
42:50
Speaker 2: Take care of the customers?
42:51
Speaker 1: Is business good?
42:52
Speaker 6: Making a lot of money?
42:55
Speaker 5: Everybody's getting rich, right?
42:57
Speaker 6: The idea that Democrats try to sell that Trump is
43:00
Speaker 6: an awful human being, that he's Adolf Hitler, I don't
43:02
Speaker 6: know that Hitler was regularly buying journalist milkshakes or walking
43:06
Speaker 6: into Chick-fil-A or Dairy Queen like this.
43:09
Speaker 1: I think this is Trump at his best, right?
43:11
Speaker 4: So decisive and strong leader in the Gallup poll, Trump 57,
43:16
Speaker 4: Biden is at 38, although more people think that Biden
43:19
Speaker 4: is likable. He's at 57, Trump at 37. I guess
43:23
Speaker 4: they weren't at the Chick-fil-A.
43:29
Speaker 1: Oh, man. 30 milkshakes and chicken. Dan, is this the
43:33
Speaker 1: milkshake election? Are there milkshake voters? Is that our subgroup?
43:38
Speaker 1: Hitler never bought milkshakes for anyone, Dan. Not even his
43:42
Speaker 1: fellow Nazis. No one got a milkshake.
43:44
Speaker 2: Never been to Chick-fil-A, Hitler.
43:45
Speaker 1: Never been to a Dairy Queen. That's how you know
43:48
Speaker 1: he's not Hitler. Because if he was Hitler, he wouldn't
43:51
Speaker 1: be buying milkshakes for people.
43:52
Speaker 2: Bad people don't eat ice cream.
43:55
Speaker 1: That's just the... Also, Joe Biden eats ice cream. bad
44:00
Speaker 1: donald trump buys milkshakes good i.
44:02
Speaker 2: Mean it is just it just and this is it
44:05
Speaker 2: just has to be said that.
44:08
Speaker 1: For you look like you look like you're gonna burst
44:10
Speaker 1: a blood vessel.
44:10
Speaker 2: It's not even anger it's just like humor that fox
44:16
Speaker 2: has been on a mission to take down people who
44:21
Speaker 2: drink through straws and people who eat ice cream As
44:25
Speaker 2: a way to hit Joe Biden. And now they're praising
44:27
Speaker 2: Donald Trump for buying ice cream you drink through a straw.
44:32
Speaker 2: It's just wild. And without even blinking, no one's like, well,
44:37
Speaker 2: no one's trying to square the circle between the anti-straw,
44:40
Speaker 2: anti-Joe Biden ice cream thing to Donald Trump is not
44:44
Speaker 2: only not Hitler, he's a great, kind, compassionate leader because
44:47
Speaker 2: he buys milkshakes. Just wild. Just amazing.
44:50
Speaker 1: I didn't say that. Tommy and I had a conversation
44:53
Speaker 1: about this yesterday when we first saw the clip. And
44:56
Speaker 1: he was like, this is the fundamental difference between, like,
44:59
Speaker 1: right-wing media and Fox News and, like, all of us
45:03
Speaker 1: on the progressive media side. Is that, like, could you
45:06
Speaker 1: imagine if Joe Biden walked, as he's done many times,
45:10
Speaker 1: walks into a restaurant and, like, buys everyone lunch and
45:14
Speaker 1: we just played the clip on Pods of America and
45:16
Speaker 1: we're like, can you believe this? That is Joe Biden
45:20
Speaker 1: at his best. What a wonderful. He is amazing because
45:24
Speaker 1: he bought those people lunch. If he does something really
45:28
Speaker 1: kind and like unusually wonderful with some to someone like, yeah,
45:32
Speaker 1: maybe we talk about it. But I just I don't
45:35
Speaker 1: think any of us could ever get ourselves to that point.
45:39
Speaker 1: And like Fox News with a straight face, it was
45:41
Speaker 1: it was it was like the number one story on
45:43
Speaker 1: Fox all day long. It was like headline after headline
45:47
Speaker 1: after headline. Every host came up and talked about the
45:49
Speaker 1: fucking milkshakes.
45:51
Speaker 2: I mean, I'd say a couple of things. One, maybe
45:54
Speaker 2: we should be doing that.
45:55
Speaker 1: No, we should not.
45:57
Speaker 2: I'm not saying we feel good about ourselves, but just
45:59
Speaker 2: for the overall point of the world that Joe Biden
46:01
Speaker 2: did something really nice. Maybe we should talk about it
46:02
Speaker 2: more often. That's just the thought.
46:04
Speaker 1: You know, I remember from the last campaign when Joe
46:07
Speaker 1: Biden talked to the kid with the stutter about how
46:10
Speaker 1: he'd had a stutter. And it's like, you know what?
46:11
Speaker 1: That is an unusually just like, you don't see that
46:14
Speaker 1: moment often in politics, no matter who it is. And
46:17
Speaker 1: it shows what a kind like soul Joe Biden is,
46:19
Speaker 1: you know, but like, I'm sorry, that is Donald Trump
46:24
Speaker 1: at his best buying milkshakes.
46:25
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just, I mean, or just another example
46:29
Speaker 2: that when Biden was in the elevator and that horrendous
46:32
Speaker 2: documentary about the New York times editorial endorsement process, we
46:38
Speaker 2: know that there was that great moment, like, like, yes,
46:40
Speaker 2: we should highlight all those things. it does show just
46:42
Speaker 2: like what a, the fact that Donald Trump is such
46:44
Speaker 2: an asshole so often that there's this one moment where
46:47
Speaker 2: he buys ice cream for people and it's like, Oh
46:49
Speaker 2: my fucking God, give him the Nobel prize. Yeah.
46:53
Speaker 1: I will say though, it is, it is like this campaign.
46:55
Speaker 1: And again, I know you and Jen talked about this on, on,
46:58
Speaker 1: on Wednesday too, like just because they're better than other
47:01
Speaker 1: Trump campaigns doesn't mean they're good, but like they are
47:04
Speaker 1: they're reading all the polling correctly. They know what his
47:07
Speaker 1: weaknesses are. They know what his strengths are. They're trying
47:10
Speaker 1: to neutralize the weaknesses. They're trying to play up the
47:12
Speaker 1: strengths like they are. This is a real, it's a
47:15
Speaker 1: real campaign. It's a real campaign. Uh, and if, you know, it's,
47:19
Speaker 1: it's a real campaign despite the candidate that they have
47:22
Speaker 1: because he's, uh, you know, on, uh, on his best days,
47:26
Speaker 1: he's still a, uh, fricking goober. But, um, but yeah, I, uh, it's,
47:32
Speaker 1: It's going to be tough.
47:33
Speaker 2: Did you read the Gabe Sherman piece in Vinny Fair
47:35
Speaker 2: about the Trump campaign?
47:37
Speaker 1: I mean, because I like fanfic. Yeah, sure.
47:41
Speaker 2: The major takeaway of it is the reason the campaign
47:44
Speaker 2: is working is that Donald Trump is so embroiled in
47:46
Speaker 2: his criminal trials that.
47:48
Speaker 1: He- Which we have said here.
47:50
Speaker 2: That he can't focus on, he can't be doing all
47:52
Speaker 2: the dumb shit he was doing before, which is, I mean,
47:55
Speaker 2: I think that's actually probably true. And the prospect of
47:58
Speaker 2: going to prison has focused his mind a little bit,
48:00
Speaker 2: just a little bit, mind you. But it is wild
48:04
Speaker 2: that somehow being involved in multiple criminal– like he's involved
48:08
Speaker 2: in so many criminal trials that he doesn't have time
48:11
Speaker 2: to do as much dumb shit. Like if he was
48:13
Speaker 2: only facing two trials, maybe he would– I mean it's
48:17
Speaker 2: just wild. But look, I think the takeaway on the
48:20
Speaker 2: campaign thing is I think they are running a totally
48:23
Speaker 2: competent campaign thus far. And it is– Lightyear is better
48:27
Speaker 2: than the ones before. But as we stand here today
48:30
Speaker 2: on April 11th, the campaign that Joe Biden is running
48:34
Speaker 2: is light years better than the one Trump is running.
48:36
Speaker 2: That is my take as we sit here. But Trump
48:40
Speaker 2: will not lose this campaign on his own. We will
48:42
Speaker 2: have to beat him. His campaign has set a floor.
48:47
Speaker 3: Yeah.
48:47
Speaker 1: And I will say they're running a competent campaign and
48:53
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is always on his best behavior, both when
48:57
Speaker 1: he is worried about going to prison and losing all
48:59
Speaker 1: his money, but also When he is doing relatively well
49:04
Speaker 1: and thus far in the campaign, the story has been
49:07
Speaker 1: like Donald Trump outperforming expectations and he was leading in
49:11
Speaker 1: the polls for a while. And if now that the
49:13
Speaker 1: Biden campaign's in gear, like Donald Trump starts slipping in
49:16
Speaker 1: the polls and you're already seeing it, he's going to
49:19
Speaker 1: turn into the. Donald Trump we saw the night of
49:21
Speaker 1: the New Hampshire primary. We started losing it on Nikki Haley,
49:26
Speaker 1: which is I think the Biden campaign very much understands,
49:28
Speaker 1: which is why they're trying to continue to get under
49:31
Speaker 1: his skin, is not just a voter strategy, but a
49:34
Speaker 1: strategy to have Donald Trump, you know, become his famously
49:39
Speaker 1: undisciplined self again. All right, few quick housekeeping notes before
49:43
Speaker 1: we go. If, like us, you're following the news about
49:45
Speaker 1: this horrendous Arizona abortion law and the mess that Donald
49:48
Speaker 1: Trump has gotten himself into with the whole let the
49:52
Speaker 1: states decide thing, check out this week's episode of Hysteria.
49:56
Speaker 1: Erin and Alyssa are all over this story and all
49:59
Speaker 1: the other GOP attacks on women's health and freedom. Hysteria
50:02
Speaker 1: is fantastic. Follow it wherever you get your podcasts. Also,
50:06
Speaker 1: Erin is going to be joining us Dan and Tommy
50:09
Speaker 1: and me for our upcoming live show right here in
50:11
Speaker 1: LA on April 21st at the LA Times Festival of Books.
50:15
Speaker 1: Come hang out and stress about the news with us
50:17
Speaker 1: and learn about our new book, Democracy or Else, How
50:20
Speaker 1: to Save America in 10 Easy Steps. You can learn
50:23
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50:27
Speaker 1: fun Sunday we'll have.
50:28
Speaker 2: Look, I love books. I love podcasting. I love politics.
50:31
Speaker 2: What more can I ask for?
50:33
Speaker 1: And we get a Dan Pfeiffer appearance right here in L.A.
50:36
Speaker 1: What more could you want?
50:37
Speaker 2: Probably an Aaron Ryan appearance. That's what the public is
50:40
Speaker 2: going to want, but I will also be there.
50:43
Speaker 1: It's going to be great. All right, everyone, have a
50:44
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50:46
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