Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 70 - 7/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 70 - 7/5/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 70 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:34
Happy Friday, the weekend is upon us.
0:37
Hope everyone had a fantastic 4th of July.
0:40
I had a great day as it was my second day in San Diego here for
0:43
a week. I can tell you guys it's great
0:45
when all the games start super early in the day because of the
0:48
three hour time zone change. It's also great when you can
0:50
have fantastic Mexican food pretty much any way you go.
0:54
Walk 2 feet. You got a great Mexican shop
0:56
here. So if you have burritos, tacos,
0:59
you got to get to San Diego. But again, 4th of July, hope
1:02
everyone had a great Independence Day, went to a
1:04
cookout and we're able to see some some neighborhood,
1:07
neighborhood fireworks, which was a great time.
1:09
And then today, right after I finish this pod, we are going to
1:12
the San Diego Fair at the Delmar Fairgrounds.
1:16
So I'm very much looking forward to this.
1:18
Me, the wife, the in laws we're going to all go to the fair,
1:21
have some probably fried Snickers, fried fried this fried
1:25
that corn dogs. It should be a lot of fun.
1:27
So I'm very much looking forward to that.
1:29
But before we go to the fairgrounds here for today, we
1:32
got some sports betting to talk about.
1:34
I have a 5 pack of sweats today, guys, including four Major
1:38
League Baseball bets. Couple short numbers here, a dog
1:41
to fave line move some good steam moves as well as a juice
1:45
reel sharp mush recommended bet of the day, which also is a robo
1:48
Jackson bet of the day. So Juice Reel hopefully help us
1:51
cash a ticket for today. And then WNBA, that's right,
1:55
there's some there's a lot of WNBA action here for tonight.
1:58
And I isolated one game where we don't really have a a huge line
2:01
move per SE, but we have a great rhythm edge in terms of the
2:05
rhythm projected models, AI backed models, along with a
2:09
great community model. And I'm going to talk to you
2:11
guys a little bit more about this great addition to rhythm,
2:13
which is the community feature, which is not yet unveiled still
2:17
beta testing, but it will be a premium feature that we've
2:20
already used to help us catch some bets So big day today 5
2:23
pack of sweats 4 MLB one WA will hit on it all for today's
2:28
episode 70 of the all systems go sports betting pod powered by
2:32
rhythm. Now looking back toward last
2:34
time we talked guys as I would have loved to put out a pod
2:37
yesterday, but we had a pretty busy day as we're running around
2:41
getting ready for the barbecue and going to friends of of my in
2:44
laws house. Had a great time but no pod
2:46
yesterday. But do you guys remember the
2:48
last pod that we had on Wednesday?
2:50
3 in 1 + 1.41 units, our third straight winning day.
2:54
Had a couple great hits with the Brewers, the Astros, the
2:57
Phoenix, Dallas over. Didn't have to sweat that one at
3:00
all. Remember that was over 171 and
3:02
1/2. Had a rhythm community model
3:04
edge. I think they scored close to 200
3:07
points. So that was great to see.
3:09
And then you can tell that we're kind of hot right now.
3:11
I don't want to jinx it, but we had the Mets too and they had a
3:14
5 nothing lead that they blew. So even even the one loss there
3:17
probably should have been a win. But either way, guys, three
3:20
straight winning days. Let's see if we can make it a
3:22
fourth straight winning day on episode 70 of the All Systems Go
3:25
pod. So to start off today's podcast,
3:28
I want to go with some Major League Baseball, which should be
3:33
a great lady game stay. And I'm also I should have
3:35
mentioned this. I'm going to the Padres game
3:37
tomorrow. We just bought a bunch of
3:39
tickets, A10 pack. So I'm going to my first game at
3:41
Petco Field or Petco Park, which should be should be fun.
3:45
But anyway, with baseball on the mind, let's start talking about
3:48
some sharp bets for today. So first one on the board for
3:51
me. I'm going to look at a matchup
3:53
tonight, 7:10 PM Eastern Time, Chicago White Sox at the Miami
3:57
Marlins and I'm going to lay the chalk with the fish, baby.
4:01
Little background for this matchup.
4:02
The White Sox come in 25 and 64, just lost two of three against
4:06
the Guardians. They lost the series finale
4:08
yesterday eight to four as a + 185 row dog.
4:12
Meanwhile, the Marlins 30 and 57 just got swept by the Red Sox,
4:16
losing six to five and extras yesterday as a + 135 home dog.
4:20
So what have you seen across the market here?
4:22
Well, First off, let's talk about the pitching matchup.
4:24
The White Sox are going with the righty Drew Thorpe, who's two
4:28
and one with a 4.43 ERA. Meanwhile, the Marlins go with
4:32
Rady Brian Hoeing, who's O&O with a 1.83 ERA.
4:36
So across the market, what have we seen?
4:38
Well, this game opened at basically a pick'em.
4:40
It was around -110 odds both sides.
4:43
We have seen a very obvious steam move in favor of the fish,
4:47
which is why I want to follow the steam and bet Miami opening
4:50
around -110 we've now seen Miami get bet up to -125 -, 130, some
4:56
shops even inching toward -135 So it's always notable to me.
4:59
Not just $0.10 of steam or more. That's kind of an indicator of
5:03
big money coming in. You know, a couple cents here, a
5:05
couple cents there, not that indicative.
5:07
But when you get to $0.10 or more, that tells you a lot of
5:10
smart money came in to push that number.
5:12
But also when you open up as a coin flip, basically a pick em,
5:16
always look at, hey, where does the line break?
5:18
Because maybe wise guys have it as a pick em as well.
5:21
But maybe they have one team favored over the other, which is
5:23
why again, you want to see that which direction it breaks when
5:27
you have a pick em number. So all money here is pouring in
5:30
on the Marlins. Marlins are getting 55% of money
5:33
line bets, but 64% of money line dollars.
5:37
So basically public is relatively split very slightly
5:40
in on Miami, but nearly 2/3 of dollars are going with Miami as
5:43
well. So good low bets, higher dollars
5:46
bet split. Also, Miami's checking off a few
5:49
boxes here. 1 interleague favorite, so lack of familiarity
5:52
benefiting the better team that's expected to win.
5:55
Also, Miami has some correlative betting value as a favorite in a
5:58
low total game. Total in this game is 8.
6:00
So the Fairmount expected run scored more likely to come from
6:03
quote UN quote that better team. Also, I'm going to bank on
6:06
Miami's offense hopefully hitting the ball well tonight
6:09
and getting a win over Chicago because Miami is hitting only
6:12
231 with 303 runs scored, but Chicago is worse only hitting
6:17
221 with 285 runs scored. Meanwhile, Thorpe, who's going
6:21
for the try? Sox, he's been kind of bad on
6:23
the road, 5 point O2 ERA on the road versus A3 ERA at home.
6:27
So he's on the road tonight. I want to bet against Thorpe.
6:30
And last little nugget here, the White Sox just 9 and 35 on the
6:34
road. That is the worst Rd. record in
6:36
all of baseball. So you open up pretty much a
6:38
pick em. We're now all the way up to
6:40
Miami around -130 good system matches, good bet split, better
6:44
bats. I'm going with the fish here
6:46
hopefully to get a win for us at -130 Keep on cruising.
6:51
Detroit Tigers at the Cincinnati Reds another 7:10 PM Eastern
6:54
Time. First pitch this game with a
6:57
little background here, Tigers 39 and 48.
7:00
They started kind of good. They really falling off here
7:03
over the last month or so. I'll just lost two of three
7:05
against the Twins. They lost 12 to three yesterday
7:08
as a + 150 Rd. dog. You know, the Reds, they're kind
7:11
of going the other way. They're getting hot here.
7:12
They're 42 and 45. They just swept the Yankees in
7:16
the Bronx, so that's pretty notable to me.
7:18
Must mean you're playing good ball.
7:19
Or maybe it means the Yankees just stink.
7:21
A little more on the Yankees here in a second.
7:23
But the Reds won the finale eight to four yesterday as a +
7:26
155 road dog. So for tonight's interleague
7:30
series opener, the Tigers are going with Rady Reese Olson,
7:33
who's two and eight with a 3.32 ERA.
7:36
Meanwhile, the Reds are going with Rady Carson Spires, who's
7:40
two and one with a 3.13 ERA. So what do you see across the
7:43
market here? Well, we open it relatively a
7:46
pick em or basically a slight favorite here for the Reds.
7:49
They open around -115 at some shops, Detroit around a -, 1 O 5
7:53
road dog. And we've seen pretty consistent
7:56
movement one way action in favor of Cincinnati.
7:58
The Reds after opening around -115 have not been bet up to
8:02
-125 So we have that 10 cent steam indicator telling a smart
8:06
money is going with the red legs.
8:07
Reds are getting around 75% of bets and dollars.
8:11
So basically A1 way support pro and Joe bet split in addition to
8:16
that $0.10 team move in their favor.
8:18
Cincinnati, we just mentioned the interleague favorite value.
8:20
They have that edge as well, with the lack of familiarity
8:23
benefiting the better team who is expected to win, and digging,
8:27
digging a little bit deeper into the starting pitchers.
8:29
Olson had a 5.73 ERA in six June starts, so he didn't have a very
8:33
good June. He gave up 21 runs in 33 innings
8:37
pitched. Meanwhile, poor Olson.
8:39
Hopefully he stays poor here tonight, but the Detroit Tigers
8:44
are three and 13 and Olson 16 starts this year.
8:48
Spires, by the way, 3 point O 4 ERA in four June starts, only
8:52
gave up eight runs in 23.2 innings pitched.
8:55
And then just recent performance.
8:57
Reds are going One Direction. They're playing well.
8:59
They're six and four over the last 10.
9:01
They're hitting 226 with a four point O 9 ERA.
9:05
Meanwhile, Tigers going the other way, they're three and
9:07
seven over the last 10, hitting only $1.96 with a 5.66 team ERA
9:13
and also run differential. They're just a, you know, basic
9:15
snapshot of these teams. Cincinnati, even though they're
9:18
three games below 500, they're plus 21 and run differential.
9:22
Detroit is -26 so you add it all up here guys pick them or slight
9:27
favorite opener for the Reds. The lion's gotten steamed bigly
9:30
in their favor. We have some good system matches
9:34
here with the interleague favorite as well as pitching
9:36
advantages. So I'm going to back the hotter
9:39
team playing well and now at home, the Reds to hopefully beat
9:42
the Tigers tonight. Give me Cincinnati got him at
9:44
-125 Now next one up, one that is near and dear to my heart.
9:50
Red Sox Yankees, that's right, a big rivalry renewed here, maybe
9:54
not quite the rivalry when I was a a die.
9:57
I'm still a die hard Sox fan, but the height of being a Sox
10:00
fan, you know, early 2000s breaking the curse.
10:03
Sox, Yankees was as good as it gets rivalry falling off a
10:06
little bit here, but not nevertheless a big match up in
10:08
the Bronx tonight, 7 O 5:00 PM Eastern Time first pitch Red Sox
10:13
come in 47 and 39 just had that big sweep on the road against
10:18
the Marlins. You know, the Yankees 54 and 35,
10:21
good record, but they've struggled here as a plate.
10:24
They just again got swept by the Reds at home.
10:26
So pitching match up here for tonight.
10:29
We have the Red Sox going with the righty Tanner Houk, who has
10:32
been great this year and probably should make the All
10:34
Star game. He's seven and six with a 2.67
10:37
ERA. Meanwhile, he'll be opposed by
10:39
the lefty Nestor Cortez, who's four and seven with a 3.51 ERA.
10:44
So we've seen across the market here.
10:46
Well, this game opened with the Yankees listed around a -, 140
10:50
home favorite and the public still, even though the Yankees
10:53
are struggling and Red Sox are playing well, they say Yankees
10:56
at home better record. Got to go with the Yankees.
10:59
So currently you're getting 60% of bets taking New York, yet the
11:03
Yankees open -140 they're down to around -130 So why is the
11:08
line falling away from New York if they're the popular bet?
11:11
Tells me we got some smart money here on the Red Sox with pros
11:14
jumping on Boston at a plus money payout.
11:16
Red Sox only getting 40% of bets, so they're contrarian and
11:20
we'll end up being a pretty heavily backed game here
11:22
tonight. And also you're seeing that
11:24
reverse line move in their favor despite being unpopular tonight,
11:27
the lines going in their direction.
11:28
So it tells us we got some smart money on Boston.
11:31
I want to be with the Red Sox. Yes, I'm a Red Sox fan, but I
11:34
hope you guys know by now not to bet as a fan, but to bet based
11:38
on where the market is moving, where the data is telling you
11:42
the value is, which happens to be Boston.
11:44
So even though they're my favorite team through the sharp
11:46
play tonight, so I guess lucky for me, I'm going to sweat my
11:50
favorite team as a system match. So Red Sox digging a little bit
11:53
deeper, they have a good divisional dog value.
11:56
So two teams from the same division levels the playing
11:59
field based on the familiarity, which benefits the dog, the team
12:02
getting plus money. Also digging into these pictures
12:06
a bit, Tanner Hawk has been actually better on the road than
12:09
at home. On the road he has a 1.85 ERA,
12:12
at home, 3.23. So he's been good regardless,
12:15
but he's been been even better on the road.
12:17
The Red Sox, meanwhile, are seven and one and his last eight
12:20
starts. And if you look at Esther
12:22
Cortez, 3.97 ERA and six June starts, not terrible, but that's
12:27
kind of been his worst month overall.
12:29
Red Sox, by the way, 27 and 16 on the road.
12:32
They've played well away from Fenway Park and also recent
12:36
performance. I mean, we got two teams going,
12:38
going in opposite directions. The Red Sox are seven and three
12:41
in the last 10 games. They're hitting 251 over that
12:44
time frame with a 4.45 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Yankees are two
12:49
and eight over their last 10. They're only hitting 231 and
12:52
maybe 6.59 team ERA. So adding it all up here, guys.
12:57
Publix Yankees yet Lions going to Red Sox divisional dog
13:00
hopefully pitching advantage playing better as of late.
13:03
I'm going Red Sox here plus 120 shop round because there are
13:06
some shops around plus 1:15, but not just a market based play on
13:10
the Red Sox. We have a juice reel advantage
13:13
here to bet Boston. So juice reel who does a great
13:16
job helping us power this podcast.
13:18
You guys hear me talking about all the time, but there are two
13:20
things in particular I love. There are a lot of things I love
13:22
about juice Reel, but two in particular.
13:24
One is the sharp mush indicator. So I don't know if anyone has
13:28
seen the A Bronx tale great movie, but I forgot the the
13:33
exact quote, but he said was named Jimmy mush or something
13:37
mush. He was a mush because everything
13:39
he touched turned to mush. So mush is someone who like when
13:42
you're watching a game, for whatever reason, they're a
13:44
downer and they, you always end up losing whenever they're
13:46
around you. Basically they're kind of your
13:48
kryptonite. But the Juice Reel sharp mush
13:50
indicator is really cool because it basically looks at all of the
13:54
betters who have a account at Juice Reel and it, it basically
13:57
pulls them or tracks that data and then it gives you a
14:00
breakdown of, OK, the best winning betters who do they like
14:04
and then the worst losing betters who are they betting.
14:07
So this is a great sharp mush indicator tonight on Boston
14:10
because if you look in the app, 88% of the best betters who are
14:14
betting this game are on the Red Sox versus 59% of the worst
14:18
betters are taking the Yankees. So basically you have the losing
14:22
betters in the app going Yankees, the winning betters in
14:24
the app going Red Sox. That creates a sharp mush edge
14:27
on Boston. Also mentioned Robo Jackson, the
14:30
hard working AI backed model here does have a best bet.
14:35
There's two each day that come out at noon.
14:37
One of them happens to be on Boston plus 120.
14:40
If you want the other one again, you can sign up for Juice Reel
14:43
get all those sharp mush indicators as well as the Robo
14:46
Jackson best bets the arbitrage bets again, if you haven't done
14:50
it yet, go sign up for a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel so you
14:54
can get all this data to help you cash some tickets.
14:56
You can sign up using the custom link, which is located in the
14:59
bio description of this podcast. If you're listening on iTunes or
15:03
Spotify, just go to where it says info or about this episode.
15:07
Boom. It'll have a breakdown of what
15:09
we're talking about on today's episode and then Scroll down.
15:11
You'll have those sign up links for Juice Reel.
15:14
The last bet of the night here in Major League Baseball.
15:18
We are going to somewhere very close to me because I'm in San
15:21
Diego. So we're going to look at for
15:23
tonight last bet in Major League Baseball, the Diamondbacks at
15:27
the San Diego Padres. Now going into this one, the
15:30
Snakes are 43 and 44. They just took two or three
15:33
against the Dodgers. They won nine to three yesterday
15:36
as a + 100 row dog. Meanwhile, the pods, 48 and 43
15:40
just took two or three against the Rangers.
15:42
They won three to one yesterday as a + 100 row dog.
15:45
So for tonight's series opener, the Snakes are going with ready
15:48
Slade Sesame, who's two and six with a 5.81 ERA.
15:52
Meanwhile, the pods are going with fella ready, Randy Vasquez,
15:56
two and four, 4.88 ERA. So what we've seen across the
15:59
market here, well, this game open with the Padres listed as a
16:02
very short home favorite -110 at home, Arizona plus 100 on the
16:06
road. And the public says, hey, let's
16:08
go Padres. They're at home.
16:10
They have a better record. They're laying a very, very
16:12
short chalk number. So currently 60% of money line
16:15
bets are going Padres. However, despite nearly 2/3 of
16:19
bets on San Diego, this line has moved away from San Diego and
16:23
toward Arizona. We've seen the Padres fall from
16:26
-110 down to plus 100. We've seen the Diamondbacks go
16:29
from plus 100 to -110 So if the public is on San Diego, you
16:34
know, and they open -110 shouldn't they be up to -115 -,
16:38
120? No, it's going the other way
16:40
away from San Diego, even though they're the popular bet.
16:43
So that alarm bells boom going off.
16:45
That's sharp money, reverse line movement on Arizona telling us
16:49
the smart money is going with the snakes in this one.
16:51
So I'm going to be with the sharps, I'm going Arizona.
16:54
I got Arizona. I was able to shop around and
16:55
get around a -, 1 O 7 some books again closer to -110 but this is
17:00
a pure data play. Again, seems fishy because
17:02
Padres better record at home. Short number yet It's going to
17:06
Arizona. So hopefully, you know, after
17:08
taking two or three against the mighty Dodgers, maybe Arizona's
17:11
got some good mojo coming into tonight and slates is either
17:14
Sesame or Sisoni. I know I bet on the the snakes a
17:19
couple times and I feel like he's let me down and gotten lit
17:21
up. So hopefully we got some better
17:22
luck. Tiny pitches better on the road
17:25
because he's actually been better on the road than at home.
17:27
At home, he has an 11.65 ERA on the road. 3.35 SA pure data play
17:33
here on Arizona line going in their direction, only getting
17:37
40% of bets. So I'm taking Arizona again
17:39
around -110 shop around. If you can find a -, 107 So four
17:44
pack tonight. Can we get three of them, Reds,
17:47
Marlins, Red Sox and the Diamondbacks?
17:50
Keep on cruising. Last bet of the night.
17:52
Let's go to the WNBA. First off, have I converted any
17:56
of you into WNBA? Betters?
17:57
Hopefully make sure some are a little bit more interesting when
18:00
you don't have only baseball to get down on, but another market
18:03
here hopefully to maximize our edge.
18:05
But I'm going to focus on a game here tonight in the WNBA between
18:10
the sky and the storm. So this one is interesting for a
18:13
few different reasons here. But First off, this is going to
18:16
be a 10:00 game tonight and it's on the network Ion IONI don't
18:22
even know what can anyone tell me Ion is that like do you need
18:26
to pay for that? Is that on you know, Verizon or
18:29
Comcast or DIRECTV? Because sometimes I like to
18:32
watch these games if I have a bet on them, but I have no
18:35
freaking clue what ion is. Maybe you guys can send me Adm
18:38
and and guide me there. But anyway, 10:00 Eastern Time
18:41
match up here for tonight. I'm on the West Coast, so it's
18:44
7:00 for me, so even better. But anyway, looking at this one,
18:48
the sky come in seven and 11 versus the storm, who are 13 and
18:52
six. And in terms of what we've seen
18:56
in terms of the side, nothing really jumped out to me.
18:59
You know, you basically open Seattle -9 1/2.
19:02
They're up to -10 so not much notable there.
19:05
But I noticed something in terms of the total.
19:08
So if you look at the total in this one, it opened at basically
19:11
161 and it hasn't really moved. You know, a lot of these books
19:14
are still at 161. I see a couple books at 161 1/2.
19:19
So maybe, you know, either the same or ticked up, you know,
19:21
basically 1/2 point. So we don't have like a massive
19:24
steam move on the over. It's not like it opened, you
19:26
know, 157 and it's up to 161. It hasn't moved too much
19:30
slightly over, but there are a lot of reasons like this over.
19:33
So Long story short, I'm going over over with the sky and the
19:37
storm over 161. But here's a couple things to to
19:40
like about the over. One, the bet splits only 70% of
19:44
bets, but nearly 80% of money is on this over.
19:47
So right off the bat, we have a 10 cent low bets, higher dollars
19:51
indicator on the over. And then digging a little bit
19:53
deeper into kind of the style of play, the Storm are #3 in terms
19:57
of scoring offense, they average 84 points per game.
20:01
The Storm are #2 in terms of pace.
20:03
So the second fastest team up and down the court, faster pace,
20:07
more possessions, more opportunities to score.
20:09
Meanwhile, the sky, they're #4 in terms of pace.
20:12
So basically have two top four teams in terms of pace.
20:15
So again, up and down the court, you know, basically benefits and
20:19
over. You can always think of like
20:21
Gonzaga and college basketball, they get up and on the court
20:23
score a lot versus A-Team like Virginia who is super slow,
20:27
which is why you see such low totals for Virginia and college
20:29
hoops. But that pace jumps out to me.
20:31
We have two of the top four fastest paced teams.
20:35
Both these teams are well rested so it's not like you have the
20:37
tired legs under, but hopefully we have a well rested over
20:41
because the Sky haven't played since July 2nd whereas the Storm
20:45
haven't played since July 1st. So we're starting to piece to
20:48
get together the puzzle here. Line stayed the same or slightly
20:52
went up. We have two fast-paced teams,
20:54
high scoring team, good bet split, well rested.
20:58
But here is the cherry on top or two cherries on top.
21:02
I pop open my rhythm app, which again, I'll give you a SEC, I'll
21:05
give you a I'll tell you in a minute here how to sign up for
21:07
rhythm because if you ain't betting with rhythm, I don't
21:09
know what you're doing because rhythm is great because it's all
21:12
data. It's it's basically your head,
21:13
not your heart, The information, not a biased opportunity.
21:17
So anyway, open my rhythm app. I go to this game and notice a
21:20
few things right off the bat. I have two models in with
21:23
rhythm. I've I've gotten a lot of people
21:25
asking me about rhythm. The cool thing with rhythm is
21:28
that you can either do no work at all and just follow the
21:32
rhythm top. It's called the rhythm AI
21:35
basically predictor or or system or model I should say, or you
21:39
can create your own. Now creating your own is fun
21:41
because you can put in different like factors.
21:44
So I can put in hey, for my model on a total, I'm looking at
21:48
pace, I'm looking at offense, 3 point shooting defense, you
21:52
know, free 3 point free throw. I don't know if I mentioned
21:55
that, but those are my factors that are more important to me.
21:58
Now your factors might be a little bit different, but you
22:01
can weight them based on what you think is is important to
22:04
you. So I have two system matches on
22:07
the over. The first one is the Rhythm AI
22:10
model, which is predicting a 164.4 final score which would
22:16
cash our over 161. And then my model, my Josh
22:19
Rhythm model is 162.4. So either way, the Rhythm model
22:24
or the one that I created both have a total that is higher than
22:28
the current number. And then the last cherry on top,
22:31
the community model, Community model, which is unbelievable.
22:35
I, I really think this is a game changer for rhythm because the
22:38
community model basically looks at everyone.
22:40
And you probably heard me say this before, I know there's new
22:43
people who listen. So I just want to mention it.
22:44
The community model basically compiles everyone who has a
22:48
rhythm account who has created a model on their own.
22:51
And then it looks at all those models and it basically tells
22:54
you what percentage are on the over or the under or the dog or
22:58
the the favorite. You know, basically you can look
23:00
at, Hey, other people in the app.
23:01
What are what are the other people betting?
23:04
Now as a contrarian better, you know, I don't want to be with
23:07
the public, but in this situation, I do want to be with
23:10
quote UN quote, the public because it's not drunk guys at
23:13
the bar creating rhythm models. It's data minded people who are
23:17
smart, who know what they're doing.
23:19
So I want to be with that basically that that that
23:22
majority side. So Long story short, the
23:25
community model on this game, 77.1% of people who have a model
23:31
on this game are on the over. So that is a good sign there
23:35
that the other sharp people in the rhythm app are betting the
23:38
over. Again, the rhythm model is
23:40
164.4, my model is 162.4, and 77.1% of rhythm models are
23:47
saying go over. So add it all up here guys.
23:50
We got a lot of indicators to go over tonight, so add it all up.
23:53
Sky Storm I'm going over over, over, over.
23:58
Let's get some points in this 1 / 161.
24:02
That about does it for episode 70 of the all systems go sports
24:05
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
24:07
But First off, thank you for listening to the pod each day.
24:10
Thank you for pulling up a chair to the virtual bar and sweating
24:13
sharp contrary in plays with me. It means so much that you guys
24:16
take the time out of your day to listen to the pod.
24:18
I'm going to ask something of you, though.
24:20
This is the part of the pod where can you do me a favor.
24:22
Can you please give this podcast a 5 star review?
24:26
It really goes a long way to helping us rise up the charts,
24:29
gain more credibility, gain more follows.
24:31
So if you are listening in Spotify or iTunes, please give
24:34
it a 5 star review. And also if you want to
24:37
recommend it to a friend, that would be great.
24:39
And also if you want to help grow the pod by clicking the
24:44
follow button, like if you're on Spotify, you can follow certain
24:47
artists or podcast that helps as well because the more follows
24:51
you'll get alerted as soon as it drops and help us rise up the
24:54
rank. So five star review.
24:56
If I if you could do that for me, I would really appreciate
24:58
that. Secondly, if you enjoy this
25:01
style of betting, data-driven betting, trying to read the
25:03
market, the challenge of trying to make sharp bets based on
25:06
where the smart money is going and piercing together the puzzle
25:10
of the smartest bet possible finding value.
25:12
Maybe you are into betting against the public now and
25:15
you're a little bit more contrarian minded.
25:16
You're looking at percentages, line move system matches,
25:19
whatever the case may be, if this pod interests you in terms
25:23
of how to become a data-driven better, well, guess what?
25:26
I wrote a book, it's called the Everything Guide to Sports
25:29
betting. Just go to Amazon.com, type in
25:31
the Everything guide to sports betting, support the team, buy a
25:34
copy for you or for a friend. You'll learn more about
25:37
data-driven betting, how lines are set, how and why they move,
25:40
how to read line movement, how to locate sharp action, how to
25:43
place a bet in person or online, how to shop for the best line,
25:46
how to set up a bankroll management plan, all included in
25:49
my book, the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
25:51
So pick one up, bring it to the the sports book and I'll sign
25:55
the book. At the book, I'll buy you beer
25:57
or ginger ale. If you don't drink, that's fine
25:59
too. But seriously, thank you so
26:01
much. I appreciate that.
26:02
Of course. Lastly, whether I see you at the
26:04
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River and Rhode Island, the
26:07
Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
26:10
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
26:12
Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
26:15
Massachusetts. Or out on the West Coast in the
26:18
desert where the true grinders get down, where Billy Walters
26:20
sends his number runners, where lowest juice possible is found
26:23
at the South Point. Or sweating, sharp contrarian
26:25
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool at Circa.
26:28
When you catch a big ticket, wherever it may be, you're going
26:30
to walk up to me, hopefully had a great 4th of July.
26:33
And also you're going to show me some good winning tickets from
26:36
our last pod on Wednesday. Show me a Brewers ticket, an
26:39
Astros ticket, a Phoenix, Dallas over, Mercury wings over that's
26:43
sailed over. Whatever you do, don't show me
26:45
that Mets ticket 5 nothing lead and they blow it.
26:48
You know things are going well when you go three in 1 + 1.41
26:51
units, but you're still mad at that last play that didn't come
26:53
through. So guys, we got three straight
26:56
winning days. Let's keep it rolling.
26:57
Do our best to post another winning night here for tonight.
27:01
Of course, as I mentioned, go sign up for Juice Reel as well
27:04
as Rhythm. You can click those custom links
27:06
in the bio description of the pods.
27:08
I would hopefully, hopefully I'm making converting you into a
27:11
Rhythm and Juice Reel user because again, it's all about
27:13
data. When you're data-driven, better
27:15
you love data. The more good data you can get,
27:17
the better it is for everybody. So of course, everyone enjoy
27:21
your Friday. Unfortunately, no, no biting.
27:24
I'm not going to give you biting because it's just biting because
27:27
there's no UFC this weekend, damn it.
27:29
But we do have UFC coming back on.
27:32
I think it's the 13th. So it's next Saturday.
27:36
So no UFC for this weekend. We'll be back at it hopefully
27:39
for next week. And our next pod is going to be
27:41
on Monday, So I'll see you guys back on Monday for Episode 71 of
27:45
the All systems go sports betting podcast powered by
27:48
rhythm. Hope everyone has a fantastic
27:50
weekend. Good luck with your sweats and
27:53
maybe I'll see you at the San Diego fair at the Delmar
27:56
Fairgrounds later today. And I don't know, maybe we can
27:58
bet on, I don't know, bet on bet on this bet on that.
28:02
We'll find find a way to get some action at the at the
28:04
fairgrounds. But good luck everyone.
28:06
My parting words, as always, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet
28:09
against the public, place yourself on the side of the
28:11
house. Always be with the smart money
28:13
never against it will smart money when every time of course
28:16
not hope you guys know at this point, betting is hard, which is
28:19
why you when you have a three day winning streak.
28:21
It gives you confidence. But if we had a three day losing
28:23
streak, hey, we know it gives us perspective and up or down
28:27
treading water doesn't matter the the basically the process
28:30
never changes. So we can find that sweet spot
28:33
games that fit our model against the public with the house with
28:36
the pros flat bet avoid parlays, get that CLV.
28:40
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports bettors.
28:43
So again, enjoy the sweats everyone, have a great weekend.
28:45
I'll see you back on Monday, Episode 71 of the All Systems Go
28:49
Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
28:52
Good luck everybody, I'll see you soon.