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Episode 21 - 4/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 21 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on?
0:33
Everyone happy? Thirsty Thursday.
0:36
We are one day closer to the weekend, guys.
0:38
We got a lot to get to on today's POD.
0:40
I have a six pack of sweats for you, two Major League Baseball
0:44
bets, including a short dog and a short favorite.
0:47
And then big NHL night. Today's a big NHL night.
0:50
I'll tell you why I got 4 bets in the NHL, but I'm going to
0:53
really try to take advantage of a motivational edge here.
0:56
As we're getting late into the season, we have teams that are
0:58
basically eliminated from the postseason, postseason
1:01
contention versus teams that are either clinched or fighting for
1:04
a spot or fighting for positioning.
1:06
So we can take advantage of some of these, you know, one
1:09
motivated team versus team who got who's got nothing to play
1:11
for those type situations. So 6 packs of sweats for you
1:15
overall. I also want to mention that I
1:18
have a lot of people asking me about Masters now.
1:21
I fully admit, guys, I'm not a big golf guy.
1:24
My dad's a huge golfer. Has been his whole life.
1:26
I used to golf when I was a little bit younger.
1:28
I actually came in second place at a 13 year old tournament when
1:31
I was a young kid at Wacona Country Club back in the
1:34
Berkshires and Western Mass where I'm from.
1:36
But I never got the golf itch. My dad keeps telling me, like
1:39
wait until you get into your, like, you know your, your 40s.
1:41
That's when golf is going to be a great pastime to get get out
1:45
of the house and have fun and hang with your friends.
1:47
So maybe that'll happen to me. I'm, I'm 36, maybe I'm entering
1:50
the golf period of my life here, but I'm not a huge golfer.
1:52
I'm not a huge golf. Better.
1:53
But here's the thing, even though I'm not a huge golf
1:56
better, you still can get down on the Masters and make some
1:59
money. And how can you do it?
2:01
You can do it with rhythm, so rhythm sponsors.
2:03
This podcast does a great job of powering the pod and I just want
2:07
to give a a golf clap and a huge shout out to James Santor and
2:11
the whole team at Rhythm because they just unveiled golf as a
2:14
sport. Now Rhythm, their goal is to
2:16
have all sports available. Right now you have to think
2:19
about four sports. So we're going to add obviously
2:21
all the others which will happen in time, but I know they've been
2:24
working super hard behind the scenes to get to a point where
2:27
they feel confident and they're AI AI backed model and they're
2:30
waiting and waiting to unveil it and what better time than the
2:33
Masters to take advantage. So Rhythm just released AI
2:37
backed golf picks and I hope you guys will be using them to make
2:40
smarter bets on the Masters. Rhythm gives the best AI backed
2:44
picks for top five, top ten and top 20 positions every week
2:47
while also providing daily predictions throughout the
2:49
tournaments. So here's what I want you to do.
2:51
If you are a golfer and you want some more golf insights and you
2:54
want to take advantage of AI back picks from Rhythm for the
2:57
Masters then I here's what I want you to do.
2:59
I want you to go sign up right now for a free seven day trial
3:03
to get data back, bets, custom models and and more throughout
3:06
the Masters. All you got to do is sign up a
3:09
specific way. You can either click the
3:10
Description or info tab within Spotify where this podcast is
3:14
located, or just go to my Twitter page at Josh under Score
3:17
Insights. The very top of my page will be
3:19
a pinned tweet and it'll be basically explaining the pod
3:23
with a link to Rhythm. So it'll be a custom link
3:26
through Rhythm Click that get the seven a free trial.
3:29
If you're a golfer, this should be great news for you, hopefully
3:31
to take advantage. And really, when I bet a little
3:33
bit of golf during the pandemic because I needed the action and
3:36
I had nowhere else to go, I had a lot of golfers tell me, hey
3:39
don't look at, you know, guys, to win it outright, bet on the
3:42
top ten, top 20 head to heads. That's where you can make some
3:45
money. So hopefully rhythm will help
3:46
you in that endeavour. And again, you can sign up using
3:48
that custom rhythm sign up link on my Twitter page.
3:51
So with that being said, we got to address kind of the rut that
3:55
we've been in here, guys. To start the week, 3:00 and 3:00
3:58
on Monday, 3:00 and 3:00 on Tuesday, and then last night, 2
4:01
and 4 -, 2.3 units. And sometimes embedding it
4:04
humbles you to a degree where you don't cry, you don't smash
4:08
your TV, you don't break a window.
4:09
You just, you just laugh. And I'll give you 2 examples of
4:11
why I just laughed yesterday. Now, we did have winners on the
4:14
Orioles, which were a value play.
4:15
They came back and beat my Red Sox.
4:17
They were down 5. Nothing came back in one.
4:19
Also got the Padres as a good sharp line move.
4:22
But here's where the ones I was really laughing.
4:24
Now the Jays were down one nothing.
4:27
They tied the game on a Guerrero home run one to one.
4:30
They go into extra innings. Now, First off, they had
4:31
multiple opportunities in the bottom of the ninth to score
4:33
some runs and end it right there.
4:35
Of course they don't. They go to extras.
4:37
Seattle scores six runs in the 10th inning.
4:39
They lose 7 to 1. So there we go.
4:42
That wasn't fun. Then right after that, the LA
4:45
Angels over. Angels in Tampa Bay over.
4:47
Wind blowing out. Good, sharp, good, sharp
4:50
liability. Huge, low bet, Tire dollars.
4:51
Bet split. The Angels score four runs in
4:54
the first, then they score. Run in the second.
4:56
We have two runs after an inning and a or sorry, we have five
4:59
runs after an inning and 1/2. That means we only need four
5:01
more to push. Five more to win over the next 7
5:04
innings, 7 1/2 innings. What happens?
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They pretty much don't score a single run the rest of the way.
5:09
We lose our over 9, so that was annoying.
5:12
The Nets over 221 just never really had a much offense there.
5:15
That really, you know, was a loss pretty much early on.
5:18
But the coup de grace of last night, which is why betting is
5:20
so frustrating sometimes, is that as bettors we try to do our
5:25
part and make good bets based on beating the closing line.
5:27
So my boy Marcos was asking about, you know, you always say
5:31
get CLV. What does that mean?
5:32
That means trying to bet games at better numbers than what they
5:35
close at doesn't guarantee a win.
5:37
But if you can consistently get better numbers than what a line
5:39
closes at over the long haul, you're going to be winning
5:42
better because you're consistently getting better
5:44
numbers. So without being said, I take
5:46
you to a game that I thought was again, there's no such thing as
5:49
as locker guarantee, but I felt so good about this game.
5:53
It was the Suns Clippers under. Now why did I feel good about
5:56
it? Because we got under 223.
5:58
On the podcast it was announced that I think it was both Harden
6:02
and who was it? Paul, George.
6:03
Bunch of guys were out. Did you see where that sun's
6:06
Clippers total closed? That guys, it closed at 2:20 and
6:09
a half 220 at some shops. So we beat the closing line by
6:13
three points. What happens?
6:15
It flies over in the fourth quarter.
6:17
I think they scored 74 points. So between the Jays blowing it,
6:21
between the Angels, you know, in the in the Tampa Bay Rays, Five
6:24
runs in the first two and then nothing the rest of the way.
6:27
And then that ridiculous CLV play on, the sun's under and
6:30
then it flies over. All you got to do is laugh
6:33
again. There's not much you can do.
6:34
We're right there. We're just not getting the
6:36
brakes right now. And I think in betting, this is
6:37
when it becomes frustrating. This one, it kind of tests you
6:40
because you keep knocking at the door and you feel like it's
6:42
personal. You feel like, you know, why are
6:44
the plays that I'm betting Losing and not just losing, but
6:47
losing in excruciating pet, in in excruciating, excruciating
6:52
fashion is what I mean to say. So we're not going to smash
6:55
their TV's. We're not going to quit.
6:57
We're not going to say, screw this, I quit or I double down,
6:59
triple down. We're just going to stick with
7:01
it. Guys, I can tell you I've been
7:02
betting on sports. I'm 36, as I mentioned, I'll say
7:06
legally since I was 21, maybe even a little bit sooner, but
7:09
this is what happens. You just go through ebbs and
7:12
flows. There's going to be weeks where
7:13
nothing goes your way. They're going to be weeks where
7:15
everything goes your way. Right now, we just got to keep
7:17
grinding, keep sticking with it. Now, that being said, after a
7:20
frustrating night, 2 and 4 -, 2.3 units, here are some bright
7:24
spots. Now, you may have had the
7:26
Phillies earlier in the day. Phillies were a good, sharp
7:28
steam move. I wrote about the Phillies at
7:30
for my my article for vesan.com. You can always check my Twitter
7:33
page for earlier bets that might come before the podcast.
7:36
So maybe you added the Phillies, which made your day a little bit
7:38
better. But I'm going to give you one
7:40
last little angle here that should make you happy.
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Now on the Pod yesterday we talked about NBA awards.
7:45
What do we talk about? We talked about how pretty much
7:48
every award is moved so much that it's not even bettable.
7:50
You know -10,000, -, 3000 -, 1600 MVP Yokich you know these
7:56
numbers are are unvetable. But there was one bet that we
7:59
talked about yesterday and boy am I glad that we talked about
8:02
it because we talked about the 6th man award.
8:06
Malik Monk -145. He was getting a huge low bets,
8:10
higher dollar bet split. He had come off the bench for
8:12
every single game played 72 games And I said hey Malik Monk
8:16
at -145, good low bets, higher dollar bet split 15 points a
8:21
game every game off the bench looks like a sharp play.
8:24
Let's bet Malik Monk yesterday. Well, who bet Malik Monk 6th Man
8:28
of the Year yesterday? I did.
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I did. Did you?
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I hope you did. Because guess what?
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I woke up this morning, logged into my DraftKings account.
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What did I see? I go to Nbai, go to futures, I
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go to awards. I go to six.
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Man, Malik Monk is now -240. Let's go after night.
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Worth nothing. Went our way with our, our, our
8:48
game sweats. That is something that did go
8:50
our way. I noticed that Nas Reed started
8:52
last night. I think he had 13 points.
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Nas Reed is the one guy that could maybe clip here, clip Monk
8:58
and get this award. Here's the thing, 6th man, you
9:01
got to come off the bench. Nas Reed, that's up to I think
9:03
14 starts this year. So I think even though his
9:05
numbers are pretty decent and he came off the bench a lot, he's
9:09
now started 14 games. That kind of is a bad sign if
9:11
you want to win the 6th man of the year award.
9:13
So when things aren't going your way, you keep grinding, but you
9:16
try to find the positives. Maybe in other bets or other
9:18
situations, which again, maybe the Phillies, maybe Malik Monk.
9:22
With that being said, guys, who wants to have a winning day?
9:24
I do. Let's get right into it.
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I got 2 baseball bets for. I'm a little annoyed because
9:29
they're only seven games coming into today, and three of them or
9:31
two of them got postponed. And I actually liked a couple of
9:35
them. I like Minnesota as a dog.
9:36
I liked Milwaukee as a favorite earlier today.
9:38
So anyway, they get rained out. There's only two games left in
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the day, and I got a plan, both of them.
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So let's get right into it. First one on the board for me.
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Let's go to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.
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This is a 640 game between the Pirates and the Phillies.
9:53
Now going into this match up the the Pirates are nine and three.
9:55
They've been a great story this year, good start to the year.
9:58
I just had a two game series with the Tigers.
10:00
They lost the finale though, 5:00 to 3:00 as a -, 120 home
10:03
favorite. They're actually up in that game
10:05
and their closer blew it late. But then you also look toward
10:09
the Phillies here, six and six. They did have a win.
10:12
If you played them like I did earlier in the day against the
10:14
Cardinals. They won that game four to three
10:16
as a -, 135 Rd. favorite. So for tonight's game we have
10:20
the Pirates going with Jared Jones, one and one 3.86 ERA
10:25
Phillies. Meanwhile going with the lefty
10:26
Ranger Suarez one and O 4 point O 9 ERA.
10:29
What are we seeing across the market here?
10:32
Well, sharp money looks to be on the dog with Pittsburgh.
10:34
I'm going to take the dog Pirates here.
10:37
Try to get a + 125 if you can, but why do I like the Pirates?
10:40
Classic RLM reverse line move. Philly open -150, Philly's down
10:45
to -140 -, 135. Why is that important?
10:48
Because Philly's getting around 60% of bets.
10:51
So if the public's on Philly why is this line dropping toward
10:54
Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has a great bet split
10:57
only around 37% bets but 59% of the money.
11:01
So good sharp contrarian bet split they got the line move in
11:04
their favor. They're also match a dog high
11:06
total total in this game is 9. I think the wind is howling out.
11:09
I want to say to center field let me double check.
11:11
Yeah like 15 mile per hour winds out to center field.
11:14
So probably why you're seeing liability over.
11:16
But that total of nine is a high total.
11:18
So more expected run scored, more opposite opportunities,
11:21
more variants. That's a benefit to a dog.
11:24
Also you look at the Pirates with a rest first tired
11:27
advantage. The Pirates were off yesterday.
11:29
The Phillies played in Saint Louis.
11:30
So one day rest advantage. Pirates.
11:32
Also the better bats. Starting 270 versus 234 for
11:36
Philadelphia Pirates have scored 69 runs.
11:40
Only 45 for the Phillies. Pirates 6 and one on the road.
11:43
Philly two and four at home. So I'm going to take a shot here
11:46
on the Pittsburgh Pirates. Some good plus money.
11:49
The line's moving in their direction even though public's
11:51
over Philly rest first. Tired better offense.
11:54
I'm going with the bucko so let's go Pirates.
11:56
I got him at plus 1/25. Next one for you.
11:59
If it ain't broke we ain't going to fix it.
12:02
Let's go Baltimore. I'm a Red Sox fan but I was
12:05
cheering last night as as the Red Sox were blowing A5 nothing
12:09
lead in the 6th inning And also I got to say like who scouts for
12:12
Baltimore. Every guy in their line up is
12:15
like a first round pick who just absolutely Rakes.
12:17
So if you're an Orioles fan, I feel like you'll love your team
12:20
here. Jackson Holiday made his debut.
12:23
Didn't impress much from the from the plate he was over four,
12:25
had an RBI. Made a nice double play though.
12:28
But again, first game ever. But anyway, I'm going right back
12:31
to the wall. Give me the Orioles guys like
12:32
the Orioles obviously they had a big win for us as a not a sharp
12:35
play, but a value play. Yesterday, 7:00 to 5:00 as
12:38
basically a even money dog. Tonight's game Grayson Rodriguez
12:42
righty going another thing. He's the first round pick going
12:45
for Baltimore two one O 2.19 ERA.
12:48
Red Sox are going with Garrett Whitlock one and O 0.96 ERA.
12:52
Why do I like Baltimore here? First off, it's a great price.
12:55
I got Baltimore -120. Baltimore actually open like
12:59
-110 -, 115. Now they've been up to -120 -,
13:03
125. S line is moving in favor of
13:05
Baltimore. They're getting around 70% of
13:08
bets in dollars. So both public and sharp
13:09
support. Rd. favorites this year.
13:12
They're 38 and 2066%. 15% ROI. Again, Red Sox.
13:18
They're booting the ball around like they did all last year.
13:21
Trevor Story's hurt. Nick Povetta is hurt.
13:23
Got guys crying in the locker room.
13:25
Jared Duran dropped the ball the other day.
13:28
Feels like the wheels are falling off, even though it's
13:29
like so early in the season for Boston.
13:31
Meanwhile, the Orioles, they're playing great.
13:33
Just pulled, called up a holiday.
13:35
Good vibes throughout their locker room.
13:37
Baltimore. This is another angle I like.
13:39
Baltimore is 52 and 1973 percent 19% ROI over the last two
13:45
seasons when they're playing a team who missed the playoffs the
13:48
previous year. Down match here tonight against
13:50
the Red Sox. So I'm going with the O's baby.
13:53
Give me the Baltimore Orioles. I got the Orioles here at -120.
13:59
So Pirates plus 125. Orioles -120.
14:03
Now I got to mention NBANBA is in time out.
14:07
I am so frustrated with the NBA again.
14:09
The coup de grace was again betting in under 223, closes 220
14:12
and it flies over. So of course I'm going to give
14:15
NBA rest. And actually I'm thinking to
14:18
myself, like, man, I I just suck at NBA recently, last couple
14:21
weeks and I was looking on Twitter, I'm actually glad to
14:24
see misery loves company. A lot of other people that I
14:27
respect for saying, oh, NBA has been so erratic, I think maybe
14:29
it's because the season is coming to an end.
14:31
There's only a few games left so wacky things happen when the end
14:35
of a season takes place. So maybe I'll I'll blame it on
14:37
that. But anyway, no NBA tonight.
14:39
I want nothing to do with it. Let's go to the NHL though,
14:42
because I think there's an angle here here to back in the NHL in
14:46
terms of end of season motivation.
14:48
Some teams got to win, some teams obviously are out of it,
14:52
have nothing to play for. So I'm going to try to take
14:54
advantage of that situation tonight and I got 4 bets for
14:57
you. So first one on the board going
14:59
with the Toronto, almost said Blue Jays, Toronto Maple Leafs
15:04
at home against the Devils tonight, 7:00 game now.
15:07
Not a big line move. Play like Toronto open around
15:10
-190, -, 200. They pretty much stayed around
15:14
that, you know, kind of kind of spot.
15:16
But I think it's a good value play to back Toronto in this
15:19
situation tonight. So these teams just played the
15:21
other night and the Toronto Leafs just beat the Devils five
15:26
to two at New Jersey. Now it's a home and home it
15:29
comes back to Toronto. Couple of advantages here.
15:33
Number one is goaltending. Jacob, what's his name?
15:36
Allen Jake Allen for the Devils 3.38 goals against 898 save
15:42
percentage, but he's given up three plus goals in five of his
15:45
last six games. Meanwhile, Sampson OFF hasn't
15:48
been great goals against OF3895 save percentage, but he's
15:52
actually playing very well recently.
15:53
Recently he's 5 and O, and his last five starts he's given up
15:56
two goals or less than three. Of his last four, Toronto has
15:59
the better offense. They're averaging 3.6 goals per
16:01
game versus 3.3 for the Devils. They also have the better
16:04
defense giving up 3.1 a game versus 3.4, better power play,
16:09
nearly 25% versus 22%. And here's where I'm going to
16:13
put some motivation into it. Jack Hughes is out for the year
16:17
for the Devils, and the Devils have been eliminated from the
16:19
play offs. So Devils got nothing to play
16:21
for Toronto. They've clinched the play off
16:24
spot, but they're third in the Atlantic and they're fighting
16:27
for positioning. And really what they're trying
16:29
to do is catch Florida. They're down 3 points and have a
16:31
game in hand to to end the season.
16:33
So we have a a Toronto team who just beat the Devils.
16:36
Now they're at home and they play the Devils again.
16:38
Better goaltending as well as motivational edge.
16:41
They got something to play for. Devil's got nothing to play for
16:44
and their best players out for the year.
16:46
So I'm going Toronto blue. Keep doing this, guys.
16:48
Blue Jays, Toronto Maple Leafs. I'm going Leafs in this one.
16:51
Guys shop around. I got the Leafs at -195.
16:56
Keep on cruising. I'm going with the Islanders
16:59
tonight, Islanders at home against Montreal.
17:01
And again, these are some higher numbers guys.
17:02
Remember, shop around as well as bet Tris versus bet to win.
17:06
So the example of Toronto -195, I'm just risking my one unit
17:10
trying to get a little more than 1/2 unit back.
17:12
I'm not risking 1.95 units to win one because if any of these
17:16
teams lose, I hope they all win. But if they lose, I only want to
17:18
lose 1 unit, I don't want to lose 1.95.
17:21
Anyway, let's go to the Islanders.
17:23
Feel like the Islanders are in a good spot here, a little bit of
17:25
steam. The Islanders open around -210.
17:28
They've been now been that up to around -220 -, 225 S again, it's
17:32
a big number here. Shop round.
17:34
I got the Islanders at -220 but the Isles have won five straight
17:37
games. They have hopefully a big edge
17:41
in net Tonight. Varlamov is in goal 2.69 goals
17:44
against 9/17 save percentage against Montembo.
17:48
I always screw up his kids name 3.1 O goals against nine O 4
17:52
save percentage. But recent performance we have
17:55
Montembo giving up 4.78 goals per game in his last three or
18:01
three starts in April. You look at Varlamov 1.49 goals
18:06
against in three April starts. He's three and O By the way.
18:09
We have the Islanders, who have been good at home. 1910 and 10.
18:12
Montreal's losing on the road. 1416 and 8.
18:16
Slightly better offense for the Islanders.
18:17
Three goals a game versus 2.8 and much better.
18:20
Not much better, but better defense.
18:22
Give me up 3.2 goals a game versus 3.4.
18:25
Again, motivation. Montreal has been eliminated
18:28
from the playoffs. They got nothing to play for.
18:30
The Islanders are currently #3 in the Metro, but they haven't
18:33
clinched a spot yet. And the Caps, Penguins and
18:37
Flyers are all four points or less behind the Islanders.
18:40
So Islanders got to keep winning.
18:41
Montreal's got nothing to play for, so I'm going to back the
18:43
Islanders here, guys. Shop around again.
18:45
Bet Tris versus bet to win. I'm on the aisles at -220.
18:50
Keep on cruising. A little bit lower of a price
18:51
here. Still a favorite, but a good
18:54
angle to back the Stars. Thank you, me, the Dallas Stars
18:57
guys shop around. I got the Stars at -170.
19:00
We're at home tonight against Winnipeg.
19:02
Big steam on Dallas. Dallas actually open as low as
19:05
like -145. Now they're up to -170 #1.
19:09
The Stars are red hot. They're ten and one their last
19:11
eleven games. Goaltending tonight, even though
19:15
the numbers may not say it, you'll be back up with Brassat
19:19
in goal, or Brassouil or Bersois if I can get my good French
19:23
Canadian accent going. He's got a 2.1 goals against 925
19:27
save percentage, but he is the back up to Hellebuck.
19:30
If you look at Ottinger, stud starter here 2.81 goals against
19:34
nine O 3 save percentage, but he's 8 and O his last eight
19:37
starts in in April. In three starts he has the goals
19:40
against of two point O1. Ottinger has given up two goals
19:44
or less in seven of his last eight games.
19:47
If you look at Brassat, maybe he's rusty.
19:50
He hasn't played in 10 days and he has allowed three goals or
19:54
more in two of his last three starts.
19:56
You also get Dallas 2410 and four at home.
20:00
Last 10 games for each team, much better offense.
20:03
For Dallas. They're averaging 4.2 goals a
20:05
game versus The Jets only averaging 2.7.
20:08
Better offense for Dallas, 3.7 goals game versus 3.1.
20:11
Better power play, 25% versus 19%.
20:15
Better penalty kill, 80% versus 77% and the Dallas Stars are
20:19
three and O this year against The Jets.
20:21
So good sharp steam starter against the backup as well as a
20:26
red hot Dallas team especially at home with this good steam
20:29
move guys, I got to go Dallas in this one.
20:31
Give me the stars. The Dallas Stars here I got them
20:34
at -170. Then last bed of the night
20:38
staying up late to sweat the Kings baby.
20:41
Let's go LA Kings got the Kings at -190.
20:44
Kings are at home against Calgary.
20:46
Another motivational edge play here.
20:48
First off some steam to the Kings.
20:51
You know they open around -185 ish up to -190, shop around.
20:56
I see a couple of -190 fives out there.
20:58
So again these are bigger prices but couple things to our benefit
21:02
hopefully. One goaltending Jacob Markstrom
21:05
going for Calgary, 2.7, four goals against nine O 6 save
21:08
percentage. Talbot 2.49 goals against, nine
21:12
O 915 save percentage. And if you look at Markstrom, in
21:16
two April starts, he has a goals against of four point O3 and
21:19
he's given up three goals or more and eight of his last nine
21:22
games. By the way, motivationally,
21:26
Flames have been eliminated. Flames got nothing to play for.
21:28
Kings are #3 in the Pacific, but they haven't clinched yet, so
21:31
they got to keep winning. The defense of the Kings is much
21:36
better, 2.6 goals allowed versus 3.3.
21:39
Better power play, 22% versus 18%, Better penalty kill, 85%
21:44
versus 81%. The Kings are plus 37 and goals
21:48
against this year. The Calgary Flames are -20 Kings
21:52
1911 and seven at home. Calgary 1618 and four on the
21:55
road. And I do like the Kings and a
21:57
bounce back spot because watch them the other night had the
22:00
over 5 1/2 against the Ducks obviously couldn't come through
22:03
which is frustrating. That's just how this week has
22:05
gone. But the Kings were a big
22:07
favorite in that one and you lose outright to the Ducks.
22:10
This is a proud veteran team at home fighting for a playoff
22:13
spot. Hopefully their their mental you
22:15
know focus gets sharpened after that bad loss and they come out
22:18
here tonight and play well for us.
22:20
So I'm going kings on the money line at -190.
22:24
So Kings, Dallas Stars, the Isles in the Toronto Maple
22:28
Leafs, our four bets tonight, let's see, we can get three out
22:30
of four of those. But that about does it for
22:34
episode 21 of the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast.
22:38
Now a reminder, if you enjoy the sports betting, the all Systems
22:40
go sports betting pod, obviously the results haven't been there
22:43
quite what we want this week. But again, we got to keep
22:46
grinding because sports betting is hard.
22:48
You can never get down on yourself.
22:49
This is a very difficult industry that we have a passion
22:53
for. We just got to keep grinding.
22:55
But if the pod has helped you to become a sharper, better has
22:58
helped you to learn a couple tips here or there to be to help
23:01
you win some bets. If you look forward to the
23:03
breakdowns each day, if you've kind of adopted, or at least
23:06
kind of adopted a few things about this data-driven approach
23:10
that speaks to you, that makes sense.
23:11
Maybe you never really looked at line movement before.
23:14
Maybe you never really put much stock into betting percentages,
23:17
bets and dollars, bet splits. Maybe you didn't really care for
23:20
or even know about betting system matches or what are used
23:23
to parlay everything. Now you're flat better.
23:25
Whatever the case may be, if the pod has helped you at all to
23:28
make some smart bets, then I need your help to spread the
23:32
word about the all systems gopod and get this pod to continue to
23:35
rise like a rocket ship, which I must say, it's been off to a
23:39
good start. We keep continuing to climb up
23:41
the charts, which is great, but I need your help.
23:43
Can you do one thing for me? It'll take you 5 seconds, maybe
23:46
even less. Can you give this pod five stars
23:50
on Spotify or if you're on iTunes, five stars in a good
23:53
review? It goes a long way.
23:55
It means a lot. If you could give this pod five
23:57
stars, guess what? When I see at the book, I'm
23:59
going to buy you a beer. But seriously, it would really
24:01
make a big difference and I'd really, really appreciate that
24:04
if you could give it five stars. Of course, if you enjoy the
24:07
breakdowns, if you think I'm a good guy, if you want to make my
24:10
day, if you want to learn more about data-driven betting, and
24:12
also I recommend buying my book. It only cost 20 bucks, but it's
24:16
got a lot of Nuggets, a lot of secrets.
24:17
A lot of things I've learned betting in this or being a part
24:20
of this injury since injury. This industry I should say since
24:24
2011. Everything I've learned in the
24:26
industry. How lines are set, how and why
24:28
they move, How to read line movement.
24:30
How to locate sharp action, how to go contrarian.
24:32
How to place a bet in person or online.
24:34
How to shop for the best line. How to set up a bankroll
24:36
management plan. It's all included in my book The
24:40
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
24:41
So go to Amazon, type in the Everything Guide to sports
24:44
betting, pick one up for you or for a friend.
24:46
It would mean a lot to me guys. And when again when I see at the
24:48
book I'm going to buy a second beer for for buying the book, I
24:52
should say of course that about does it for now.
24:55
Episode 21 of the all Systems Go Pod, Whether I see you at the
24:59
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
25:01
Brooklyn, New Hampshire Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
25:04
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
25:07
Casino or MGM Springfield. And my neck of the woods in
25:09
Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
25:12
get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
25:14
number runners. Where lowest juice possible is
25:16
found at South Point. And Speaking of Billy Walters,
25:20
one great quote that I want to mention which is important when
25:23
you're losing Billy Walters on the Joe Rogan podcast.
25:27
Joe Rogan asked him hey, how'd you become such a good sports?
25:30
Better. And Billy Walter said I became a
25:32
good better by losing so just let that let that sink in.
25:36
Billy Walters ups and downs the greatest of all time.
25:39
He got the way he got to the the heights that he that he has by
25:43
losing. Because you know what happens
25:44
when you lose guys. It really sharpens your mental
25:46
focus. You learn to really protect your
25:49
units. You learn to be a even more
25:52
disciplined decision maker and you decide or you kind of learn
25:56
very quickly that you got to be, you know, focused and make smart
26:00
decisions and and not be loosey, goosey and be, you know,
26:03
discipline with your bankroll so you you, you.
26:05
It's a weird thing. It doesn't make sense, but you
26:07
become a better better long term by losing it.
26:10
It really sharpens your focus, makes you a sharper better long
26:13
term. But anyway, aside from Billy
26:15
Walters in the South point where they got -1 O 5 juice, I'd also,
26:20
you know, love to see you guys at the South point as well as
26:22
stadium swim at circa getting making sharp contrarian plays
26:27
with the crew, jumping in the pool at the end of the night,
26:29
getting a victory burger, whatever it may be, you're going
26:31
to walk up to me, You know, show me an Orioles ticket, A Padres
26:34
ticket, hopefully. Had a Phillies ticket.
26:36
Show me a Malik Monk ticket. Great CLV Love waking up to a -,
26:41
240 after you bet a -, 145 whatever you do.
26:44
That Jays ticket. The Angels ticket.
26:47
The freaking Clippers. Phoenix under 223 closes 220.
26:51
It flies over. I mean, if that's not the
26:53
betting gods just toying with you, laughing at you.
26:56
I don't know what is. But guess what, guys?
26:58
We're going to let it just roll off our back like a duck with
27:00
water and continue to grind. Because again, there's no
27:04
there's no crying in baseball. There's no crying in sports
27:07
betting. Let's see if we can have a
27:08
winning night tonight. That is the goal.
27:10
So stay sharp. Stay contrarian, bet against the
27:12
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
27:14
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
27:16
Will smart money win every time? Of course not.
27:18
Because as we've said today and this week, betting is hard.
27:21
You can make a right bet, beat the closing line, you can still
27:24
lose. But here's the thing.
27:25
If we consistently get down on games that fit our model against
27:29
the public with the house, with the pros flat bet, avoid
27:32
parlays, Get some CLV. If we can do that consistently,
27:35
we're going to be winning sports bettors long term, so enjoy the
27:38
sweats. Everyone Of course as I
27:41
mentioned with the masters go you go sign up for that free
27:44
rhythm trial, especially with golf now as being a part of
27:48
rhythm and you can then start making smart AI backed picks
27:51
today. Just go to my Twitter page, give
27:53
me a follow at Josh, under score insights and you can click that
27:57
pin tweet and use that custom link to get that that rhythm 7
28:02
day free trial. But good luck everyone.
28:03
Can we have a winning day today? Let's cross our fingers and hope
28:07
that we do. Wish you the best of luck, guys.
28:09
Let's cash some tickets. Let's get back in the green.
28:12
Let's have a good Thursday. Thursday.
28:13
I'll see you guys tomorrow for episode 22 of the All Systems Go
28:17
Sports Betting Podcast. Good luck.