Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 294 - 6/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 294 - 6/6/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 294 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
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end, about to wrap up the first week in June as spring is I
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guess a little bit transitioning here to summer.
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It's hot in my area of the woods in New England here.
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Just again, I told you yesterday I hit 90°.
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So that kind of tells you that the dog days of summer are not
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that far off, which is OK with me, although I must say 90 a
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little too hot for your boy. I like kind of like a, you know,
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a nice 70° a little bit of wind. That's kind of what I like.
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Although, although my wife was from San Diego, she loves the
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heat 90°. She's she's happy as a clam.
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So I guess you got to find a little yin and Yang in a
1:10
relationship like that. But anyway, guys looking to
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finish up the week strong. I do have a three pack of MLB
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sweats where you're going to continue to grind all year long.
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3 plays here in MLB. Try to eke out as many 2IN1
1:21
winning days as we can. And I will tell you this, I
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jumped on last night SiriusXM V some live tonight with my buddy
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Patrick Maher and, and, and my buddy Dustin Swedelson.
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They're asking me for, you know, a play on last night's game with
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OKC. And I kept saying like, hey, the
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markets, OKC, you know, Oklahoma City Thunder, they opened as low
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as -9 got to 9 1/2 and ended up closing -10.
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So it was pretty clear there was some smart money there on OKC.
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And again, they were getting a pretty good split as well.
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Like I think they're getting like 40% bets, but around 50% of
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the money. But I did say to myself, man, I
1:56
really don't want to lay big points against the Pacers.
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I mentioned it to you guys yesterday, but Pacers going into
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last night, 11 and five against the spread, six and two ATS on
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the road, seven and three ATS as a road dog.
2:08
And I specifically remember talking to Dustin and Patrick
2:11
last night saying, hey, they also got a guy who hits big
2:13
shots with Halliburton. And what do you know it?
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I'm glad I laid off again. Sometimes you love the bets you
2:18
make that cash. Sometimes you're glad you lay
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off a bet where you might have again given away a unit because
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right on queue down big late OKC looks like they're going to take
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the game and then the Pacers turn it on.
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Halliburton hits another game-winning shot.
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So that was that was that was kind of a great game to watch.
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I guess if you had the Pacers or if maybe you thought about OKC
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and laid off. But man, if you're laying the
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points of the OKC that that reminded me of like those
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Celtics collapses that were taking place earlier in the
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postseason. Little food for thought too.
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We did see that total dip a little bit late.
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That was about 230 1/2. Got down to two 3229 1/2 and
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obviously that under did come through.
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So some teachable moments there. I am looking toward tonight for
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the NHL game. I would say if you like the
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Florida Panthers, Panthers are in a bounce back spot.
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They open around plus one O 5 and now flip to around -1 O 5.
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We did see those six and a halfs get juiced down toward toward 6
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here. So does Florida bounce back?
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Do we see a low scoring game? Again, I don't want to force an
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NBA Finals play or an NHL play in the in the Stanley Cup Finals
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when we're really doing well with baseball here.
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So again, always try to maximize your edge as an old mentor of
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mine used to say. So that's why we're sticking to
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baseball. So 3 pack today, guys.
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Hopefully you can get two out of three because these are all very
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short favorites here, very, very short numbers.
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So it'd be nice if we can get 2 out of 3.
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That's exactly what we did last night. 2 and 1 + 0.7 units.
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Had a great hit with the Jays early.
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Remember the Toronto was very contrarian.
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Everyone was taking Philly. That line kept falling toward
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Toronto. They rolled 9 to 1.
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So shout out to the Jays. And the Cubbies also came
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through with a 7 to 1 winner. We saw that line creep up in
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their favor as well. Only loser was the Padres and
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that was a tough one. It was a three to two game.
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I really couldn't get anything going with the bats late.
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But 2 and 1 + 0.7 units, I will take that every single time.
4:08
So let's try to finish up the weeks week strong here guys
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going to dive right in to the MLB slate.
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First game I want to highlight is a 7:10 PM Eastern Time.
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First pitch, Arizona Diamondbacks and the Cincinnati
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Reds. Now going to this one.
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If the D backs back to 531 and 31 just swept the Braves and
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they had a ridiculous comeback yesterday.
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Did you guys see this? I believe they're down six runs
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in the ninth inning, 6 or 7. They scored like 7 ended up
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winning 11 to 10. If you are a Braves, better in
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that one. Man, that's about as bad as it
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gets and all I could do was laugh.
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Thank God I didn't have the Braves because they brought in a
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reliever whose last name was Blewett BLEWETTI.
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Don't want to rag on the guy too much because he actually had a
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pretty good ERA going into it, but remember Adam Sandler?
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Was it Billy Madison or was it what was it Happy Gilmore?
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You blew it. I think it was Billy Madison,
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but ironic how the guy with last name blew it.
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Literally blew the game anyway. On the other hand, the Reds 30
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and 33 on the year just dropped two or three against the brew
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crew lost that series finale 9 to one as a - 135 home favorite.
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So pitching match up here tonight.
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We got a couple of lefties going on the bump.
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Arizona is going to go with Eddie Eduardo Rodriguez one and
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three seven point O 5 ERA hasn't been good this year, but he is
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coming off the injured list. So maybe he's, you know,
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hopefully going to pitch better tonight.
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Hints because I'm on the snakes. Reds, meanwhile, are going to go
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with the lefty Nick Lodolo. He's four and four with a 3.1 O
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ERA. So we've seen across the market
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here will a very sharp dog to fave move on my favorite moves
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in all sports betting in favor of the snakes.
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This game opened actually with Cincinnati favored around -115
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at home, Arizona around a -, 1 O 5 Rd. dog.
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And we've now seen the line completely flip to now Arizona
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-115 -. 120 across the board. I actually jumped on Arizona
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-118 at FanDuel again, that should still be available, but
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you have a bunch of other books who are inching closer to -120
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but that was really what jumped out to me.
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Dog to fave open as a dog. Arizona flip to a favorite.
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I look at the bet splits. Really good split at Circa on
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Arizona. So Arizona at Circa only getting
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36% of money line bets, but over 95% of money line dollars.
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So it tells me out in Vegas at Circa, which again caters and
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welcome sharp action. I think that's a smart way to do
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it if you're a bookmaker because they get bad PR when you turn
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people away and also you want the Intel of who the sharps are
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betting that'll help you mold the mold the line to its best
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number. But only 36 percent, 99% dollars
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again tells me big smart money going with the D backs here now
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Arizona's bats. Hopefully they get to low Dolo
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tonight because on the year they're hitting 255, 87 home
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runs, 317 runs scored since he hitting 243, only 64 homers and
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280 runs scored. We do have some Arizona non
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division favorite value here. So lack of familiarity
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benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
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Hope that comes true here tonight.
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And then also you look at some of these splits, the
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Diamondbacks against lefties this year they're hitting 2:45.
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That's doesn't sound amazing, but it's 11th best in baseball.
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The Reds are only hitting 213 against lefties.
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That ranks 27th. Also, Arizona is hitting 251 on
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the road. That's the 7th best Rd. average.
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Reds only hitting 244 at home, that ranks 21st.
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Dig into low Dolo a little bit. He does have a 6.15 ERA at home
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versus 1.25 on the road. So I want to fade him at home.
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And the Reds are just one in five in his last six starts.
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Nothing huge here but Arizona is above 500 on the road 16 and 14
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since he is below 500 at home 15 and 16.
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I did notice pop open the Juice Reel app I saw a 10% sharp mush
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edge on the snakes here. So 10% more of the sharper
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winning betters are going Arizona as opposed to the more
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profit division betters who are leaning towards Cincinnati.
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But you had me a dog to fave line move guys.
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Love that big move. Again, great bets split out at
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Circa and maybe carry some momentum after that amazing come
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from behind win yesterday with Arizona.
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But add it all up, guys. I got snakes -118 shop around
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some books a little bit closer to -120 next one, let's go to
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Saint Louis. The Cardinals 8:15 PM Eastern
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Time hosting the mighty LA Dodgers.
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So the Dodgers come into this 138 and 25.
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Just split A4 game series against the Mets.
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They won that series finale 6 to 5 yesterday, cashed as a -, 135
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home favorite. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, 34 and
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28, they just dropped two or three against the Royals and
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they split a double header yesterday at home.
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So pitching match up here. The Dodgers are going to go with
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the lefty Justin Roblevski. He's one and one with an ERA of
8:52
eight. Meanwhile, the Cards are going
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to go with the veteran righty Sonny Gray.
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He's 6:00 and 1:00 with an ERA of 3.65.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, this game opened at basically a pickup -110 both
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sides. And what do I always try to
9:06
mention highlight on the pod anytime you got a pick em game,
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one pick em games are somewhat rare because typically based on
9:12
the match up, the power ratings, the projections, you know, home
9:16
field, the pitching match of all that, you're probably going to
9:18
get one team slightly favored over the other or, you know,
9:20
greatly favored over the other. So when you open as a pick em, I
9:24
always look for a line move in a pick em opener because maybe the
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sharps, the wise guys, the pros also have a pick em, but maybe
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they don't. Maybe they say, oh, this is a
9:32
pick em from the oddsmakers, but we have this team favored over
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the other. So they'll hit the the team they
9:37
have favored because it provides an edge, an actual advantage
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over the books. And it looks like they found an
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edge on the Cardinals. Believe it or not.
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I'm going cards here, guys. It's kind of a gross one, but
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it's very sharp. Cardinals open -110 Cardinals
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have now been bet up to -120 some shops even as high as -125
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South. Even though it opened at a pick
9:56
em and I forgot to mention, you would have guessed it, public is
9:59
all over the Dodgers. Dodgers are getting 73% of money
10:03
line bets at DraftKings. So even though the public is on
10:05
Dodgers, the line is moving towards Saint Louis.
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So that tells me we got a a classic RLM play reverse line
10:12
move when the betting line goes away from the popular side
10:15
Dodgers toward the unpopular side Cardinals DraftKings cards
10:20
only getting 27% of bets, but they are taking into account
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nearly 50% of dollars. So good low bets, higher dollar
10:27
split. Digging a little deeper here.
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You know, we do have Saint Louis as a non division favorite,
10:32
built in familiar or lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
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quote the better team. But if we dig a little deeper,
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this is what I found with the Cardinals in the spot.
10:40
Cardinals are really good at home, knock on wood.
10:42
Hope that continues. But they're 20 and 10 at home,
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67%. That is the 6th best home record
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in baseball. And I also dug a little deeper.
10:50
I said, what if they're at home and the line moves in their
10:52
favor? So they're good at home, but are
10:54
they even better when the, you know, the steam, the smart money
10:57
sides with them? Sorry my allergies are killing
11:00
me today, but they are actually a lot better when Saint Louis is
11:04
at home and the line moves in their favor.
11:06
They're 12 and 380% so far this season.
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Sonny Gray, four and one 3.23 ERA at home this year.
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He's been pretty good at home. Saint Louis is 10 and two in his
11:16
twelve starts. And Saint Louis, did you know,
11:19
is hitting 278 at home this season.
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That's the second best home wreck home batting average in
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baseball. LA isn't terrible.
11:25
Their 11th 2:47 on the road. Well, this is a spot where the
11:29
market really screams Saint Louis.
11:31
And even though it feels like a Dodgers are a great team, you're
11:34
basically getting a little plus money.
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Now you got to take LA. Well, hey, this is a play that
11:38
I'll make every time because if it's fishy and it looks sharp,
11:42
that's a play that I want to make so public on Dodgers.
11:45
But a pick em line move toward Saint Louis.
11:47
I am on the Cardinals -120 I got that at FanDuel again, some
11:51
shops as high as -125 Last bite of the night, 10 O 5:00 PM
11:57
Eastern Time, first pitch, let's go out West.
11:59
Baltimore Orioles visiting the Athletics.
12:02
You notice I didn't say Oakland. Sacramento not not not Nevada or
12:06
Vegas yet either. Let's set the stage for this
12:09
one. The Orioles, who were terrible
12:10
all year, fired their manager. They're playing pretty well
12:13
recently. They're 25 and 36 on the year.
12:16
They've won six straight. They just swept the Mariners.
12:18
They won the series finale yesterday, 4:00 to 3:00 as a +
12:21
130 row dog. The A's kind of the opposite.
12:24
Started pretty good and have really fallen off their 24 and
12:28
40 this year. They lost three of four to the
12:30
Twins, but did have a big win yesterday 14 to 3 as a + 160
12:34
home dog. Now in tonight's series opener,
12:37
the Orioles are going to go with the righty Dean Kramer.
12:41
Dean Kramer on the year is five and five with a 4.7 OERA.
12:45
Meanwhile, the A's, I don't know if it's official, but it looks
12:47
like it's going to be JP Sears four and five five point O 5
12:51
ERA. So what have we seen across the
12:52
market in this one? Well, this game opened with the
12:55
Orioles listed as a short round -120 -. 125 Rd. favorite.
13:00
A's are on a plus one O 5 home dog and very quietly.
13:03
It's not a massive steam move, but the line has ticked up
13:06
toward Baltimore. Baltimore went from -125 up to
13:09
-130 and again, some shops even as high as -135.
13:13
So that tells me we got a little bit of smart money.
13:14
Leaning with the Orioles again makes sense.
13:17
They're playing well right now, laying a short price.
13:19
But if you dig a little deeper, I like the splits on the O's.
13:22
They're getting 68% of money line bets, but 70% of money line
13:26
dollars at DraftKings. So kind of a pro and Joe split
13:29
at DK meanwhile, at Circa 80% of bets, 99% of dollars on the
13:35
Orioles. So both books do have a really
13:37
heavy pro and Joe especially out in circa good bets split there
13:40
in favor of Baltimore. Now Baltimore does have that
13:43
classic non division favorite value.
13:45
So lack of familiarity benefiting, quote UN quote the
13:48
better team and in particular Kramer, even though his his
13:51
numbers on the year aren't amazing, five and five 4.7 O ERA
13:56
if you look at how he's pitched recently.
13:58
Hope this continues. But he had a really good month
13:59
of May. He made six starts, only gave up
14:02
eleven runs in 36.1 innings pitched.
14:04
That's an ERA of 2.72. Meanwhile, Sears on the road,
14:09
he's 4.78 ERA, but at home, 5.68.
14:12
And lastly, you look at the last 10.
14:14
Let's hope the Orioles can stay hot.
14:16
They're eight and two over their last ten.
14:18
They have a really good team, ERA of 2.6 O, So they're
14:21
pitching well. Meanwhile, the A is 1 and 9 over
14:23
their last 10 ERA of nearly 9. So hopefully we can get to the
14:27
pitching staff of the A's here tonight.
14:30
So we got the line move, nothing huge, but a move toward
14:33
Baltimore. We got some system matches.
14:35
We've got a got a red hot team here laying a short number.
14:38
And oh, by the way, pop open juice Reel.
14:40
I noticed a 8%, nothing crazy, but a positive 8% sharp mush
14:45
edge here on Baltimore telling us the bigger, sharper players
14:49
are going with the OS. So you had all up here, guys,
14:51
Baltimore, St. Louis, Arizona, all pretty short
14:55
chalk numbers. If we could find a way to get
14:57
two of those, that'll be a nice two in one positive unit night.
15:01
So that about does it for episode 294 of the all systems
15:05
Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
15:07
Of course. This is the part of the pod
15:09
where we wrap things up and I start first by saying, of
15:12
course, thank you. Thank you for taking the time
15:14
out of your day, out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
15:17
the virtual bar and sweat some sharp data-driven place with me.
15:20
If you do enjoy the pod, if you value the insights, whether you
15:23
tail fade or just want to sit back and listen to some
15:27
breakdowns of where the money's moving across the market, I
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would love for you guys to give this podcast a five star review
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on Spotify or iTunes If you want to click the follow button.
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That way you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
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We'll get a pop up notification on your smartphone.
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Or if you wanted to also leave a nice comment under the review
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section. Hey, I'll take that always as
15:47
well. And then, hey, word of mouth you
15:50
got. We got a friend, a buddy yours
15:51
who bets baseball is struggling. Say, hey, check out this this
15:54
podcast I listen to. It's all about data.
15:56
And hey, we produce some some winners every every now and
15:59
again or more than now and again, hopefully.
16:02
But next guys, if you haven't done it yet and you want to
16:06
learn more about data-driven betting, you enjoy the pod and
16:09
the breakdowns and you want to become a better data-driven
16:11
better, then guess what? I would highly recommend.
16:14
Or again, you know someone in your life who could use some
16:16
data-driven tips. I would love for you to go to
16:19
Amazon.com and then type in the everything guide to sports
16:22
betting. That's the first book I ever
16:24
wrote. I'm very proud of it.
16:26
It's really geared toward brand new betters breaking into the
16:28
industry, but even like kind of like intermediate betters as
16:31
well. There's a lot of great tips, a
16:32
lot of great strategies, and I put everything I knew up until
16:36
that time into that book. And it's got everything I've
16:39
learned in the industry working in sports betting since 2011,
16:43
where I started as a customer service Rep for Sports Insights
16:47
and started from the bottom. Now we hear.
16:49
But anyway, it's got everything I learned in terms of how lines
16:52
are set, how and why they move, how to read line movement, how
16:54
to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
16:57
how to go contrarian, how to shop for the best line, how to
17:00
set up a bankroll management plan.
17:01
It's all included in the Everything Guide to sports
17:04
betting. While you're at it, stay on
17:06
Amazon.com and then type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
17:10
That's my new baby. The due date is August 12th, so
17:13
we're coming up on just about two months away, which is kind
17:15
of amazing because it started with an idea.
17:18
I didn't have a publisher. I just said, hey, I've got a lot
17:21
of knowledge on NFL betting and learned a lot, especially since
17:25
I joined V sin in 2019 and got to see, you know, behind the
17:28
scenes how bookmakers operate and you know, it's kind of meet
17:32
and mingle and network with sharp professional betters.
17:35
But I said, you know what, even though I'm a publisher, I think
17:38
I could write a pretty good book on how to bet bet on the NFL
17:40
from a data-driven perspective. And really there isn't one out
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there. I've kind of found a an opening
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there. But if you want to pre-order a
17:47
copy of the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, it's also available on
17:51
Amazon.com. Of course, you'll make me happy.
17:53
You'll make my publisher happy. And then when you have the
17:55
Everything Guide and the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook, you will
17:58
bring them to the sports book. We can meet up at the Nash in
18:02
Nashville, New Hampshire, or I'll go into to Encore.
18:04
It's about 45 minutes for me in Boston.
18:07
And we'll sweat some games together, get some nachos on a
18:10
Friday night, maybe have a couple beers or ginger Aales and
18:13
hopefully catch some some baseball tickets.
18:16
Next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
18:18
Juicereel yet? My two favorite sports betting
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apps. They help me win.
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They're going to help you win because they're all based on
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data. You're just adding another tool
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in your data-driven toolkit. So with Rhythm, obviously, they
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do an incredible job of powering this podcast, giving us AI
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backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
18:36
I was on, as I mentioned, with Patrick and Dustin last night on
18:40
SiriusXM Visen Live tonight, and they're like you like any props
18:42
tonight. And I was like, yeah, you know,
18:44
the one that I did notice was Alex Caruso over 2 1/2 rebounds.
18:48
It was a power trend, the new power trend indicator on the
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rhythm map. And wouldn't you know it, I
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think you had four rebounds. So that was a nice little hit
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there. So that's really how you can use
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those power trends to your advantage.
18:59
It basically kind of specifically isolates repeatable
19:03
sets of conditions. We're in this spot.
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This guy is performed, you know, X or Y or Z and therefore you
19:08
kind of want to take advantage of that.
19:10
But of course, WNBA is playing right now MLB player props NBA
19:16
Finals. You can get that all as well as
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AI back models and predictions, not just plot player props with
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rhythm. And then also while you're on
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the when you're when you're downloading on the App Store,
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new at new sports betting apps, make sure you now Next up,
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download juice reel. Juice reel is another great
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19:37
This is the part of the pod right?
19:38
I hold out the tip jar, hold out the hat, pass the hat.
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This pod is free. It cost you nothing to listen to
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the pod. Hopefully you value the
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insights. Find them, you know, hopefully
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meaningful. If that's the case, you want to
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let me know you appreciate the pod, then you know what you
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should do. You should tip your podcaster.
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You go out to dinner. You know, every time your water
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They treat you, treat you nice, you give a tip to the waiter.
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way by getting the All Systems Go official best Bet picks only
20:16
and exclusively on Juice Reel so you can click the link.
20:20
I tweet out everyday. I'll tweet out something like,
20:21
hey, the Friday ASG Pod best bets are posted to Juice Reel.
20:25
There's a link right there at Josh under Score Insights when I
20:28
tweet it. Or you can just download rhythm
20:30
go to buy, sell bottom right corner, search ASG under score
20:33
podcast boom, $4.99 a week to get the plays, get a little
20:38
early, hopefully beat some closing lines and and again,
20:41
support the pod. But also you're going to get the
20:43
robo Jackson best bet picks the sharp mush indicators, the
20:47
arbitrage plays. Shop for the best line futures
20:49
and syncing up your sports books, getting a running report
20:52
card of your action. That's always great as well.
20:54
So download rhythm, download juice real, give them a five
20:57
star review in the App Store. Next, do you have a live odds
21:01
page? If you don't, you need one.
21:03
Seriously, it's so important. You got to be able to.
21:05
If you're a data-driven better, you got to be able to track the
21:07
market. The most important thing is you
21:09
got to have access to the data. So there are a lot of live odds
21:12
pages out there, but odds logic is the best one.
21:15
It gives you all the games, the start times, live scoring, live
21:19
in game wagering odds throughout the game.
21:21
All the sports books across the market, including the sharp
21:24
global ones like Pinnacle, Crisp, Bookmaker, Circa Bet
21:27
Online, as well as all the other books that you probably bet at
21:30
like FanDuel, DraftKings, all those ones.
21:33
But you can have an opening column that never moves the
21:35
current numbers quickly see which direction the line is
21:38
going, identify steam when the whole board lights up in red.
21:41
It is a fantastic tool for sportsbetters.
21:44
So I want you guys to test out odds logic by going to this
21:47
specific link, oddslogic.com/josh 123.
21:53
That's oddslogic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
21:57
trial and 50% off your first month of service.
22:01
So that about does it for the pod today guys on a big Friday.
22:04
As always, I'll leave you with two final things.
22:05
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
22:09
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
22:11
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston, or
22:15
Plain Ridge Park Casino MGM Springfield or the Nash in my
22:18
neck of the woods outside of Boston.
22:20
Or of course, out in the desert where the true grinders get
22:23
down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
22:25
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
22:27
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
22:29
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
22:31
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
22:34
you're going to walk up to me. Show me a nice Jays ticket RLM
22:38
like you read about. Show me a nice Cubbies ticket
22:41
and guess what? First one's on me, next one's on
22:42
you. We'll post about the book
22:44
sweatshop and train plays all night long.
22:47
So as always, guys, no pod on the weekends, but you can
22:51
definitely check out the sharp reports for visa.com that I'll
22:53
write. And you can of course, follow
22:55
the best bets this weekend for baseball from the from the ASG
22:58
under score podcast profile on Juice Rail.
23:02
But as always, guys two and one, one and two, three and OO and
23:05
three, whether we're hot, cold, whether you know things are
23:09
going well or not going well, we can't get too high or too low.
23:12
We got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint, flat
23:15
bet, fearless but disciplined and play the games that fit the
23:18
model and just layoff the ones that don't.
23:20
If there's a red flag, hey, layoff.
23:22
But the ones that fit our model, let's get down on them.
23:25
So you guys might know by now, that means we're looking for
23:28
games with the following, against the public, with the
23:30
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
23:34
If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters.
23:38
So have a great Friday everybody, have an even better
23:40
weekend, and I will see you back on Monday for episode 295 of the
23:45
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:49
Good luck everybody and enjoy the sweats on the diamond.