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NCAAF Week 6 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

0:01
Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
0:06
Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
0:08
Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
0:12
Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
0:15
Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that. I
0:18
Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
0:20
Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
0:25
Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
0:28
Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
0:33
Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
0:37
Speaker 1: reached into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my broins
0:42
Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
0:44
Speaker 1: the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
0:47
Speaker 1: don't even know it's it's March ninth, I think who
0:50
Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
0:53
Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore. Man, back
0:55
Speaker 1: with you after the worst day that I can possibly have,
0:59
Speaker 1: Back with you as I always am until I die
1:03
Speaker 1: at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday did not
1:07
Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
1:11
Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years. Doing this. I
1:13
Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
1:15
Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
1:21
Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
1:24
Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
1:32
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
1:35
Speaker 1: Better Off Dead. College Football Week six edition, with hoping
1:41
Speaker 1: to continue the run. Man, We've been pretty good in
1:43
Speaker 1: pretty much every support of the last week or week
1:46
Speaker 1: plus or so. The last couple of weeks have been
1:48
Speaker 1: excellent in football. I believe I'm on an eight and
1:51
Speaker 1: one run in college football over the last two weeks.
1:54
Speaker 1: Toning it down a little bit this week, I'm gonna
1:56
Speaker 1: give out three plays on the show. I know last
1:59
Speaker 1: week I had six because I really liked a couple
2:00
Speaker 1: of the plays on Friday, and then I had four
2:02
Speaker 1: more on Saturday. I've got three here. I've got a
2:05
Speaker 1: few that are like very close to me in plays,
2:07
Speaker 1: which I'll talk about those. I'll give out those as
2:10
Speaker 1: leans as well, so you know what I'm thinking in
2:12
Speaker 1: those games. You know, the usual, getting really selective here.
2:15
Speaker 1: Hopefully it pays off this week. But of course I
2:17
Speaker 1: can't continue to have like ridiculous weeks like this every
2:21
Speaker 1: single week, but I'm gonna try. And NFL has been
2:23
Speaker 1: good the last couple of weeks as well. I think
2:25
Speaker 1: NFL is on six and one run over the last
2:28
Speaker 1: two weeks. So we'll talk about NFL tomorrow. Yeah, Charles,
2:32
Speaker 1: that's what's up, man. Yeah, the Darth Toed video that
2:35
Speaker 1: was yeah, and that wound up being a push and
2:37
Speaker 1: full game would have been a winner on that And
2:41
Speaker 1: I want to die because the Red Sox lost. Do
2:46
Speaker 1: we have anything to really talk about right now? As
2:47
Speaker 1: far as today, I mean, it didn't have any plays today.
2:50
Speaker 1: My strongest lean that I had was actually was San
2:53
Speaker 1: Jose State, and I don't know what's happening in that game.
2:55
Speaker 1: I have the West Virginia BYU game on over here
2:57
Speaker 1: right now. It looks like BYU might actually wind up
2:59
Speaker 1: cover this number. It was a low scoring game for
3:03
Speaker 1: a while. I did say I liked the under in
3:05
Speaker 1: this game too. Both offenses suck, but it looks like
3:09
Speaker 1: Boyu is putting up some points now and making it
3:11
Speaker 1: a little bit questionable later in the game. Let's get
3:15
Speaker 1: into tomorrow, man, We're gonna do what we usually do.
3:17
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have a bunch of plays. We're gonna talk
3:19
Speaker 1: about all the biggest games as well. If you want
3:22
Speaker 1: me to talk about some other game, we could talk
3:25
Speaker 1: about it as well. I hope the Yankees don't make
3:28
Speaker 1: it to the World Series, obviously I hate them. But
3:31
Speaker 1: you saw when I did my bracket special, I have
3:33
Speaker 1: the Seattle Mariners winning the whole thing, which is very
3:36
Speaker 1: anti history. And by the way I looked it up,
3:38
Speaker 1: I believe Seattle, San Diego, and Milwaukee. I believe none
3:43
Speaker 1: of them have ever won the World Series before, so
3:46
Speaker 1: there is that although Milwaukee and San Diego, well, san
3:49
Speaker 1: Diego's out already, so I was gonna say Milwaukee and
3:51
Speaker 1: San Diego would have had to have crossed paths if
3:54
Speaker 1: they got that far. But yeah, we will see. I
3:56
Speaker 1: got all the first round, all the wild card winners
4:01
Speaker 1: I had correct, except for the Cubs versus Padres in
4:05
Speaker 1: my bracket, which I thought was pretty much a toss
4:07
Speaker 1: up type of series. It kind of wound up being
4:09
Speaker 1: that way. The Cubs did win, though, which I was forgetting.
4:13
Speaker 1: By the way that I believe Charlie Kirk was a
4:16
Speaker 1: Cubs fan. Is that what I'm hearing at least Erica
4:18
Speaker 1: kirk is, So I'm like, oh, is that gonna? Like?
4:20
Speaker 1: Is there some rigging going on right now? That means
4:22
Speaker 1: the Cubs are gonna win the whole thing? I don't know,
4:25
Speaker 1: let's get into it, man, I don't want this to
4:27
Speaker 1: be two hours like it usually is. But we'll see. Man,
4:30
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna try to allow it to not
4:32
Speaker 1: be that. Kentucky and Georgia is gonna be the first
4:35
Speaker 1: game we're gonna talk about here on the Saturday slate
4:38
Speaker 1: twelve noon Eastern ABC. Georgia ranked twelfth in the country.
4:44
Speaker 1: Big SEC matchup here, though, Man, this is one of
4:49
Speaker 1: that's very very close to a play for me. This
4:51
Speaker 1: is one of the last ones that I left off
4:52
Speaker 1: my card, and that would be a play on Kentucky.
4:55
Speaker 1: I linked to Kentucky in this game. I have a
4:58
Speaker 1: couple of hesitations with it. Though. Looks like San Jose
5:00
Speaker 1: State is winning by the way right now, so I
5:02
Speaker 1: might have been correct about that. Georgia down from twenty
5:06
Speaker 1: and a half with juice to twenty. I don't know
5:08
Speaker 1: if it really ever touched the twenty one of course,
5:10
Speaker 1: twenty one three touchdowns is a key number. But if
5:14
Speaker 1: you wanted to play this game, I would take the
5:16
Speaker 1: twenty or twenty and a half with Kentucky here. I mean,
5:18
Speaker 1: you don't have to take it now either, really, because
5:20
Speaker 1: if it gets you could wait to see if it
5:23
Speaker 1: does get to twenty one. I don't think it will,
5:25
Speaker 1: maybe it potentially will. I mean, Georgia obviously is gonna
5:28
Speaker 1: be the public side, eighty four percent of tickets, only
5:31
Speaker 1: sixty one percent of the cash on Georgia. Now. The
5:34
Speaker 1: one actual hesitation that I do have with this is
5:36
Speaker 1: that even though this is revenge for Kentucky, aam and
5:39
Speaker 1: I don't think the revenge factor really matters that much
5:41
Speaker 1: because Georgia is basically always a favorite against Kentucky, and
5:45
Speaker 1: Kentucky played them very close last year. If you remember
5:48
Speaker 1: what happened last year, Georgia, I believe had to travel
5:52
Speaker 1: to Kentucky last year, and it was the week before
5:54
Speaker 1: Georgia was gonna play Alabama, or I think maybe Georgia
5:57
Speaker 1: had to buy the next weekend. Then they had Alabama
6:00
Speaker 1: the following week after that, but it was like basically
6:02
Speaker 1: a look ahead spot. I think I think Georgia kind
6:04
Speaker 1: of just got caught not really paying attention. Although I
6:07
Speaker 1: will say right now, I think look ahead spots are
6:09
Speaker 1: less strong, like it's less strong of a fade like,
6:14
Speaker 1: it's less strong of a factor when a team might
6:16
Speaker 1: have a look ahead spot than it is for them
6:18
Speaker 1: to have like a letdown spot or hangover spots. So
6:21
Speaker 1: I think it's stronger to look at what the team
6:23
Speaker 1: did in the prior week because it can really affect
6:25
Speaker 1: their state like fatigue wise, mental state whatever coming into
6:28
Speaker 1: this game, whereas the look ahead really the look ahead
6:31
Speaker 1: only can cause a distraction and it can't really cause
6:35
Speaker 1: like fatigue or anything coming into the game, you know
6:37
Speaker 1: what I mean. So I think the look ahead is
6:39
Speaker 1: a little bit less of a factor. It is still
6:40
Speaker 1: a factor, but less so. So way those things accordingly.
6:43
Speaker 1: But Georgia, I believe, did get caught in the look
6:45
Speaker 1: ahead spot against Kentucky last year. Georgia still won the game,
6:49
Speaker 1: but they only won thirteen to twelve, if I'm not mistaken,
6:52
Speaker 1: So I Georgia could take that both ways. Man, I mean,
6:57
Speaker 1: they could remember that from last year, and because they
7:00
Speaker 1: remember that happening, it means they have to focus here
7:03
Speaker 1: and step it up because Kentucky almost caught them last year,
7:06
Speaker 1: but I think they still might not really care. And
7:09
Speaker 1: even if Georgia does show up, they just need to
7:11
Speaker 1: win the game really, so I don't think they care
7:13
Speaker 1: about style points right now. I mean right now. They're
7:16
Speaker 1: trying to make like the SEC title game right now,
7:19
Speaker 1: and they have a loss now in the SEC, so
7:22
Speaker 1: they're gonna be as focused as necessary for that. But
7:25
Speaker 1: I do think this is a bad spot for Georgia,
7:27
Speaker 1: so I would fade them if I was gonna play this,
7:29
Speaker 1: and it is pretty strong. I will say I was
7:31
Speaker 1: very much considering Kentucky here because again, I don't think
7:35
Speaker 1: last year's result is gonna cause Georgia to be like
7:38
Speaker 1: so ultra focused here, Oh we need to blow this
7:40
Speaker 1: team out by twenty points. No, you got to show
7:43
Speaker 1: up and win the game. But Georgia is in a
7:45
Speaker 1: difficult spot, man. I mean they played Tennessee into overtime
7:48
Speaker 1: going into the bye. That was a big game. Georgia
7:51
Speaker 1: escaped with the win there. Then coming out of the
7:53
Speaker 1: by they had to play their huge game against Alabama
7:56
Speaker 1: last week, and I talked about that on last week's show.
7:58
Speaker 1: I thought Alabama was gonna win the game. I was correct.
8:02
Speaker 1: So Alabama, I thought they were very much under ranked
8:05
Speaker 1: coming into that game. And we know the deal with Georgia. Man,
8:08
Speaker 1: it's basically like in the Kirby Smart era, even though
8:11
Speaker 1: I know they lost a couple extra games last year,
8:13
Speaker 1: but usually it's basically Georgia just beats everybody, but they
8:16
Speaker 1: lose to Alabama. I mean, that's pretty much what happens,
8:18
Speaker 1: and it happened again, but that was still a big
8:20
Speaker 1: game Manson. Now they have to come off of that
8:22
Speaker 1: close three point loss to Alabama and that huge game
8:26
Speaker 1: that you get up for emotional. I think it was
8:28
Speaker 1: probably the college game Day game, I would guess. I
8:30
Speaker 1: don't even know if it was. But now they face
8:32
Speaker 1: this Kentucky team that is one of the lower teams
8:35
Speaker 1: in the SEC really, and up next they do have Auburn,
8:38
Speaker 1: which Auburn's more of a name team in the SEC
8:41
Speaker 1: at the very least, even though they're somewhat mediocre right now.
8:43
Speaker 1: But they were ranked, I believe until they lost last
8:46
Speaker 1: week only by six to Texas A and M, which
8:49
Speaker 1: is a game we're gonna talk about later in the show.
8:51
Speaker 1: So I do think the Auburn game is bigger, and
8:52
Speaker 1: they do have oh Miss after that too. So in
8:55
Speaker 1: this run of like five games or maybe even six,
8:57
Speaker 1: because they have the after a bye, they have to
9:00
Speaker 1: face Florida in what is a big rivalry game as well,
9:03
Speaker 1: the World's Greatest Cocktail Party or whatever it's called outdoor
9:07
Speaker 1: cocktail party, some massive tailgating game there. That's a big
9:13
Speaker 1: game too. So in this run of six games basically
9:17
Speaker 1: that we have for Georgia here, this Kentucky game I
9:19
Speaker 1: think means the least out of all of them as
9:22
Speaker 1: far as Kentucky. They did play last week. They played
9:26
Speaker 1: pretty poorly against South Carolina, which is not good. I've
9:29
Speaker 1: been talking about how bad South Carolina as I talked
9:32
Speaker 1: about how terrible they are on first and second down
9:35
Speaker 1: coming into this. Kentucky got blown out though, which is
9:39
Speaker 1: not really a good sign. I mean, South Carolina has
9:42
Speaker 1: been really really bad, actually like worse than what the
9:45
Speaker 1: record mad even indicate. And they finally had a pretty
9:48
Speaker 1: good game, although even this game for South Carolina wasn't
9:51
Speaker 1: quite as good as it looked. Although they did win
9:53
Speaker 1: the yardish battle by over one hundred for once, South
9:56
Speaker 1: Carolina wins the yardage battle by a substantial margins, so
10:00
Speaker 1: they deserve to win the game, but Kentucky compounded how
10:04
Speaker 1: bad the game was by also losing four turnovers in
10:08
Speaker 1: the game. They were minus four in turnovers, so I
10:09
Speaker 1: think the result looked a little bit worse. I'm not
10:13
Speaker 1: saying Kentucky was like distracted and overlooked South Carolina, but
10:16
Speaker 1: I think maybe a little bit of a look at
10:18
Speaker 1: to Georgia here. It is a second straight road game
10:21
Speaker 1: for them, though, so it is a little bit of
10:22
Speaker 1: a difficult spot for Kentucky here. But definitely lean to
10:26
Speaker 1: Kentucky plus the points in that game overall, and it's
10:28
Speaker 1: close to being a play for me. I just have
10:31
Speaker 1: a few concerns about it. But that one was one
10:34
Speaker 1: of the last ones that I left off the card here. Man,
10:36
Speaker 1: it was almost a four or even five play card here,
10:39
Speaker 1: and those were very close. Player props pretty much never
10:44
Speaker 1: it's just not my thing. Definitely not in college. I
10:47
Speaker 1: don't even know how many I don't even think you
10:48
Speaker 1: can play player props in college, right. I think it's
10:51
Speaker 1: most states I think ban it completely, even though the
10:54
Speaker 1: NIL might change that. But like in the NFL, I
10:58
Speaker 1: mean I rare ever do it. I do it in
11:01
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl when you can really just focus on
11:03
Speaker 1: one game. You can focus on props. I think maybe
11:06
Speaker 1: very occasionally I do it in like the some of
11:09
Speaker 1: the other NFL playoff games. So that's about it. Like
11:13
Speaker 1: when there's more focus on it, and I know that's
11:15
Speaker 1: when you basically get the worst lines on it because
11:18
Speaker 1: the books have to focus on it too, and they
11:20
Speaker 1: have to set the lines more accordingly. They have to
11:24
Speaker 1: like make sure that their lines are good. But no,
11:27
Speaker 1: I mean, I basically don't Iowa State Cincinnati. This one
11:30
Speaker 1: is actually close to making my card as well. It
11:33
Speaker 1: wasn't one of my last cuts, but it was like
11:35
Speaker 1: it was there. I just don't really see that much
11:37
Speaker 1: of a situation for it. But as far as like
11:40
Speaker 1: this is like a pure like market read versus what
11:46
Speaker 1: the rankings makers are saying, and the rankings makers are
11:48
Speaker 1: telling you something that is completely wrong, which is that
11:52
Speaker 1: they're telling you that Iowa State is the fourteenth ranked
11:55
Speaker 1: team in the country, and I will tell you right
11:57
Speaker 1: now they are not. They're not even worthy of the
11:59
Speaker 1: top twenty five ranking. I mean, I know I keep
12:01
Speaker 1: saying that, but it's just I mean, it's just true
12:05
Speaker 1: based on what the Power ratings guys are doing here.
12:07
Speaker 1: You can see in the line here, the line makes
12:09
Speaker 1: no sense. Right. You have Iowa State rate fourteenth in
12:12
Speaker 1: the country. They're five and zero. I mean, Cincinnati's records
12:16
Speaker 1: not that bad. Cincinnati's three to one and they're at home.
12:19
Speaker 1: Cincinnati flipped from a one and a half point dog
12:21
Speaker 1: to a one point favorite. Fifty nine percent of the
12:23
Speaker 1: cash is on Cincinnati, so the money has flipped them
12:26
Speaker 1: to the favorite, even though Iowa State is getting the
12:29
Speaker 1: public action at fifty six percent. So that is definitely
12:32
Speaker 1: an indicator. Even just the ticket percentage versus the cash
12:36
Speaker 1: percentage alone, that's an indicator that you want to look
12:38
Speaker 1: to Cincinnati and this one. But I think the ranking
12:41
Speaker 1: disparity versus what the oddsmakers are telling you is a
12:44
Speaker 1: huge deal. So again, when the rankings makers are telling
12:46
Speaker 1: you something, the oddsmakers are telling you the opposite, you
12:49
Speaker 1: want to go with what the odds makers are saying
12:51
Speaker 1: because the rankings makers are just more on like beat writers. Basically,
12:55
Speaker 1: they don't know what the fuck they're talking about. They
12:57
Speaker 1: overreact to everything. The odds makers have a ton of
13:01
Speaker 1: money on the line here, so I mean, I know
13:04
Speaker 1: they're not really necessarily trying to tell you who's gonna
13:06
Speaker 1: win the game. They're telling they're trying to split the action.
13:09
Speaker 1: But sometimes they will take a stand on a certain
13:11
Speaker 1: game as well, knowing that the public is gonna come
13:13
Speaker 1: in a certain way and they can't skew the line
13:15
Speaker 1: that much away from like what they think is really
13:17
Speaker 1: gonna happen. Like if the osbaker says this team is
13:20
Speaker 1: a favorite and it's opposing what the rankings makers say,
13:23
Speaker 1: I do think you have to definitely take notice of
13:25
Speaker 1: that public's gonna see this all five and oh, Iowa
13:28
Speaker 1: State and you're getting a point or two on the
13:30
Speaker 1: road here and they're ranked it looks way too easy
13:33
Speaker 1: to play Iowa State when it's basically just a pick
13:35
Speaker 1: the winner situation. Like at worse for Iowa State here,
13:38
Speaker 1: But what is Iowa State really done so far? They
13:41
Speaker 1: won the game at Dublin in Dublin against Kansas State.
13:44
Speaker 1: Kansas State really struggled at the beginning of the season,
13:46
Speaker 1: but Kansas State outgained Iowa State in that game. And
13:49
Speaker 1: I had Kansas State in that game, if you remember,
13:52
Speaker 1: so kind of a misleading result in that. When then
13:54
Speaker 1: Iowa State came home, I thought it was a bad spot.
13:56
Speaker 1: And yes they did crush FCS South Dakota, but I
14:00
Speaker 1: don't know if there's really a whole lot to take
14:01
Speaker 1: away from that. They did play pretty well against Iowa
14:04
Speaker 1: at least defensively. I was a defensive battle, as it
14:07
Speaker 1: always is, and they played fine in the game. I
14:11
Speaker 1: was a pretty solid team. It was a defensive battle,
14:14
Speaker 1: I mean what it was what it was a typical
14:17
Speaker 1: variation of that rivalry game. But then Iowa State really
14:20
Speaker 1: did not look good against Arkansas State, and you could argue, well,
14:23
Speaker 1: it was kind of a sandwich spot coming up that
14:25
Speaker 1: big Iowa game. I think I very I was very
14:29
Speaker 1: close to giving Arkansas State as a play in that game,
14:31
Speaker 1: I think, and they definitely covered. But Iowa State played
14:34
Speaker 1: shockingly poorly in that game. And I know they had
14:36
Speaker 1: their big twelve home open er up next against Arizona,
14:41
Speaker 1: and they did play fairly well in the game against Arizona.
14:44
Speaker 1: Sure they blew out Arizona, but I think it was
14:47
Speaker 1: maybe slightly misleading at the very least if you look
14:49
Speaker 1: at the yardage in this game, Iowa State only had
14:53
Speaker 1: a thirty nine yard advantage in total yards, so something
14:56
Speaker 1: else was going on in this game, Arizona did only
14:59
Speaker 1: lose the turnover battle by one, but you look at
15:01
Speaker 1: the final score and then you look at the statistics,
15:03
Speaker 1: the final score was still misleading based on how this
15:07
Speaker 1: game played out statistically. So I still don't think Iowa
15:09
Speaker 1: State is actually that good. They're facing Cincinnati here was
15:13
Speaker 1: kind of a newcomer to the Big Twelve. I think
15:15
Speaker 1: Iowa States just kind of like, not only whatever, but
15:18
Speaker 1: I think Iowa State also they're not that used to
15:20
Speaker 1: traveling to Cincinnati really yet, so it's a little bit
15:23
Speaker 1: of a weird travel spot. I know, they don't necessarily
15:25
Speaker 1: have a big game up next. It is Colorado, it
15:28
Speaker 1: is still coach Prime, but really this is more of
15:30
Speaker 1: like a again, it's market versus rankings as far as
15:33
Speaker 1: this game is concerned. And my only my hesitation on
15:36
Speaker 1: Cincinnati would be that they're coming off winning in and
15:39
Speaker 1: upset and they haven't played anybody yet really, so Cincinnati
15:42
Speaker 1: really has played the less difficult schedule. Their most difficult
15:45
Speaker 1: games against Nebraska, they did play pretty well. They only
15:48
Speaker 1: lost by three neutral site game in Arrowhead Stadium, is
15:53
Speaker 1: that was what that one was. But since then Cincinnati
15:55
Speaker 1: has been lighting up the scoreboard man. They put up
15:57
Speaker 1: a lot of offense against Bowling Green, and I know
16:00
Speaker 1: it's a MAC team, but Bowling Green their defense isn't
16:03
Speaker 1: that bad for a MAC team. Cincinnati put up thirty
16:06
Speaker 1: four there, they put up seventy against Northwestern State, and
16:09
Speaker 1: then they put up a bunch of yards against Kansas.
16:11
Speaker 1: I know it was an upset, only a four and
16:14
Speaker 1: a half when the game went off, So it's not
16:16
Speaker 1: like one of those massive upsets where it's like, oh,
16:18
Speaker 1: you gotta like consider that team to be in like
16:21
Speaker 1: a letdown spot or something like that. After that, I
16:23
Speaker 1: don't think that's gonna be the case. I mean, they
16:25
Speaker 1: went and they beat Kansas, and again, I don't think
16:28
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a letdown spot because they're playing a
16:30
Speaker 1: ranked team here at home. So it is a big
16:32
Speaker 1: deal for Cincinnati. If you look at what they did
16:34
Speaker 1: yardage wise in this game. I know Cincinnati's defense wasn't good.
16:37
Speaker 1: They give it five hundred, five hundred and ninety seven
16:39
Speaker 1: yards to a Kansas offense that hasn't been that impressive.
16:43
Speaker 1: That's not good, But Cincinnati's offense has been really good.
16:46
Speaker 1: They put up six hundred and three yards of offense
16:49
Speaker 1: against Kansas defense. It's supposed to be improved this year,
16:52
Speaker 1: so at the very least this Cincinnati team they could score. Man.
16:56
Speaker 1: The only problem, or I guess the other problem with
16:59
Speaker 1: Cincinnati here is that I know I like the better
17:02
Speaker 1: defense more often than I don't, and that is Iowa
17:05
Speaker 1: State here. Iowa State does have the better of these
17:07
Speaker 1: two defenses, but I think Iowa State has a really
17:11
Speaker 1: deficient offense against what they're gonna face here with Cincinnati.
17:15
Speaker 1: Iowa State has lost other top two wide receivers again,
17:19
Speaker 1: I think, so Iowa State's really depleted on their offense
17:22
Speaker 1: right now. I know they have Becked there. He's an
17:24
Speaker 1: experienced quarterback, but I don't know how much he can
17:26
Speaker 1: really do here. So I could see I was stay
17:28
Speaker 1: struggling to keep up with Cincinnati's offense in this game.
17:32
Speaker 1: They're really gonna need their defense to slow down Cincinnati,
17:35
Speaker 1: and it might not be enough. So I do think
17:37
Speaker 1: Cincinnati wins that game. Nate, what's up? Man? I thinks
17:41
Speaker 1: for hanging out McCorkell, Yeah, McGonagall, I don't know. All right,
17:47
Speaker 1: let's keep going here, man, And I forgot to say,
17:51
Speaker 1: this is the fucking breakdown man, I forgot to put
17:53
Speaker 1: up the graphic, as I almost always do. I mean,
17:57
Speaker 1: you know this, I always forget something on this show.
18:02
Speaker 1: So that game, by the way, ESPN two at noon,
18:04
Speaker 1: we're still in the noon slide here. We got a
18:06
Speaker 1: lot of noon games to talk about here, and one
18:09
Speaker 1: of them is gonna be one of my plays, which
18:11
Speaker 1: is the Illinois Purdue game. So I'm gonna wait on
18:13
Speaker 1: that one. On Fox at noon. We do have Wisconsin
18:16
Speaker 1: and Michigan this game. It's it's on Fox. It's gonna
18:21
Speaker 1: be a big ten match up here in Michigan's ranked
18:23
Speaker 1: twentieth in the country. Are they a little bit overrated?
18:27
Speaker 1: I don't know. Michigan still is a good deep manse.
18:28
Speaker 1: They're still dealing with the fact that they have a
18:32
Speaker 1: young quarterback that's not very experienced in Bryce Underwood. There.
18:36
Speaker 1: Wisconsin's got some quarterback issues themselves here. Both teams, I believe,
18:41
Speaker 1: are coming out of buys. But you know, I talk
18:43
Speaker 1: about this, when a team comes out of a bye
18:45
Speaker 1: and they went into the buy on a bad note
18:46
Speaker 1: like Wisconsin did, I think that's an advantage. I think
18:50
Speaker 1: you go into that buy and you fix shit. Because
18:52
Speaker 1: Wisconsin they couldn't have really gone into the buy on
18:54
Speaker 1: a worse note. They lost at home to Maryland. Going
18:58
Speaker 1: into the buy in Wisconsin was a big favorite in
19:00
Speaker 1: that game, double digit favorite, and they lost the game outright. Yeah,
19:04
Speaker 1: ten and a half I think is what that number was. Yeah,
19:06
Speaker 1: so really bad performance for Wisconsin there. And they did
19:09
Speaker 1: lose to Alabama on the road of the week before that.
19:12
Speaker 1: I mean, no shame in that, but oh thank you sir.
19:16
Speaker 1: It is chat GPT though those graphics, so I know
19:20
Speaker 1: people make fun of the AI there will likes the Mariners.
19:23
Speaker 1: We're going to talk about that tomorrow. Tomorrow morning, we'll
19:26
Speaker 1: talk about the baseball and if there's any WNBA, we'll
19:29
Speaker 1: talk about it. But Wisconsin, they went into this buy
19:32
Speaker 1: and a terrible note. So I think it is a positive.
19:34
Speaker 1: I think Wisconsin they're gonna use that extra time to
19:37
Speaker 1: prepare something for Michigan here. Michigan is also coming out
19:41
Speaker 1: of a bye. But they went into the buy in
19:42
Speaker 1: a good note. They'd won two games in a row
19:46
Speaker 1: and it culminated them getting their best win so far
19:49
Speaker 1: this season at Nebraska, which I think, Nate, You're are
19:53
Speaker 1: Nebraska guy, right, So Nate is not happy about that.
19:56
Speaker 1: But Michigan got that win going to the buy. If
20:00
Speaker 1: you look at what they did in that game, Underwood
20:01
Speaker 1: really did not do well. I know, Nebraska's got a
20:03
Speaker 1: good defense, but Underwood he still has some improvement to
20:08
Speaker 1: do there, although Michigan was able to run the ball
20:10
Speaker 1: pretty well in that game. With Haines there, Yeah, Justine Saines,
20:15
Speaker 1: he was he the one who was on Georgia Tech
20:18
Speaker 1: last year. Did he transfer to Michigan. I'm not sure
20:21
Speaker 1: because I remember Georgia Tech I think had Haines King
20:24
Speaker 1: and the running back was also Haynes, So I don't
20:26
Speaker 1: know if it was this guy or somebody else. I
20:28
Speaker 1: don't know. I lose track of where everybody goes. But
20:30
Speaker 1: Michigan went into the buy in a big on a
20:32
Speaker 1: good note, man, and they and Nebraska was ranked I
20:35
Speaker 1: believe at the time that Michigan beat them too. I
20:37
Speaker 1: think so that was a much bigger win, a better
20:42
Speaker 1: way to kind of a worse way to go into
20:45
Speaker 1: the buy because they went into the buy in a
20:46
Speaker 1: good note. And I talked about when you go into
20:48
Speaker 1: the buy in a good note, you don't really have
20:51
Speaker 1: anything to fix because you're playing well now Michigan's coming
20:53
Speaker 1: out of that. They're playing this Wisconsin team it's been
20:55
Speaker 1: down the last couple couple of years. And up next
20:58
Speaker 1: they got USC, who was ranked I believe until last
21:02
Speaker 1: week as well, so that's a big game against USC.
21:05
Speaker 1: Man USC carries a lot of name recognition too, so
21:08
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of a sandwich spot from
21:10
Speaker 1: Michigan to some extent here. So I like Wisconsin to
21:14
Speaker 1: cover in this one. It hasn't been. It has not
21:18
Speaker 1: risen to the level of a play for me. Michigan's
21:20
Speaker 1: very public. Eighty one percent of tickets, eighty six percent
21:23
Speaker 1: of the cash on them, so the cash is on
21:26
Speaker 1: them for now, at least. I don't know if that'll
21:27
Speaker 1: be the case tomorrow when the game kicks off. Michigan
21:30
Speaker 1: up from sixteen to seventeen with juice, so you're getting
21:33
Speaker 1: a little bit of extra value if you like those
21:34
Speaker 1: consent in side, which I do. It is also one
21:37
Speaker 1: of those games of the low total man. I know
21:39
Speaker 1: it went up a little bit from forty two to
21:41
Speaker 1: forty three and a half, but you're looking at two
21:43
Speaker 1: teams that could play pretty decent defense. Wisconsin's kind of
21:46
Speaker 1: gravitating more towards playing defense. Again, we know Michigan's defense
21:49
Speaker 1: is really good, and I talk about this, when you
21:52
Speaker 1: have a really low total, you want to look towards
21:54
Speaker 1: the underdog because those points are more valuable. Man, when
21:58
Speaker 1: there's gonna be fewer points scored in the game and
22:01
Speaker 1: you're getting a lot of points with Wisconsin there, so
22:03
Speaker 1: I think the only way that you can play that game,
22:05
Speaker 1: in my opinion, is to take the points with Wisconsin.
22:08
Speaker 1: Haines transferred from Alabama, it must be a different Haines,
22:11
Speaker 1: then Michigan. Michigan is stan I like it. That's I'm
22:17
Speaker 1: trying to think of some joke on the fly. That's
22:19
Speaker 1: if they're harboring Osama bin Laden. All right, we got
22:27
Speaker 1: and then the last game of the slate there, of
22:30
Speaker 1: the noon slate, I'm gonna give out a play on
22:32
Speaker 1: that which you probably already know what it's gonna be,
22:34
Speaker 1: three point thirty pm Eastern on CBS. This almost became
22:38
Speaker 1: a play for me. Man Penn State at UCLA. This
22:42
Speaker 1: Big ten match up feels weird saying that still three
22:45
Speaker 1: and one, Penn State ranked seventh in the country, still,
22:48
Speaker 1: which I think is about accurate, and I don't think
22:50
Speaker 1: Penn State should have been ranked quite as highly as
22:53
Speaker 1: they were last week. I think seventh is probably closer
22:55
Speaker 1: to accurate here. Even though I thought that it's set
22:58
Speaker 1: up for Penn State to win that game man at home.
23:00
Speaker 1: But it's the James Franklin effect. Man, he can't win
23:04
Speaker 1: big games. That's the deal, That's what it is. I mean,
23:07
Speaker 1: you don't get a much better setup than Penn State
23:09
Speaker 1: had last week. You get Oregon having to travel to
23:11
Speaker 1: your place where they're not used to playing. It's a
23:13
Speaker 1: night game, a whiteout game, Penn State. The crowd is
23:16
Speaker 1: going to be crazy, crazy drunk. I mean, I talked
23:19
Speaker 1: about it last week. You know. I think Penn State
23:22
Speaker 1: was coming out of a bye as well, so they
23:24
Speaker 1: had extra time to prepare for it. There's just no
23:26
Speaker 1: real excuse for Penn State losing that game, man, But
23:29
Speaker 1: they did, and that kind of leads to the handicap here.
23:31
Speaker 1: And man, Penn State lost that game, and I talk
23:34
Speaker 1: about it. Sometimes when a team loses the first game
23:37
Speaker 1: of the season, they get their first loss of the season.
23:40
Speaker 1: Sometimes that alone as a hangover effect. If you lose
23:42
Speaker 1: your first game of the season, you're not really used
23:44
Speaker 1: to losing and then you have to play again right away.
23:48
Speaker 1: It's a little bit difficult, man, but especially when you
23:51
Speaker 1: had that huge game, and it was also a big
23:53
Speaker 1: ten final revenge game for Penn State, and that once
23:57
Speaker 1: some Penn State had extra motivation for that, they still
24:01
Speaker 1: couldn't get it done. They lost in double overtime. And
24:04
Speaker 1: when teams playing multiple overtimes, man, you want to look
24:06
Speaker 1: to fade those teams for that reason as well, coming
24:09
Speaker 1: off the double overtime. And I also just mentioned a
24:12
Speaker 1: little bit earlier in the show how sometimes teams that
24:16
Speaker 1: lose a game like this are actually more fadable the
24:19
Speaker 1: next week than the team that won, because the team
24:21
Speaker 1: that won at least has a little bit of momentum. Although, yeah,
24:23
Speaker 1: it is a letdown spot, but I think the letdown
24:25
Speaker 1: spot is a bigger deal when it's like a big upset,
24:28
Speaker 1: which we're going to talk about as well on the show,
24:30
Speaker 1: in one game at least, but Penn State, I mean,
24:33
Speaker 1: that was a step up game and to come that
24:34
Speaker 1: close to that monumental win, it would have gotten kind
24:37
Speaker 1: of the monkey off James Franklin's back. I mean, it's
24:40
Speaker 1: ridiculous how poorly he does in these top ten matchups
24:43
Speaker 1: or whatever. I don't think he's ever won one, if
24:46
Speaker 1: I'm not mistaken. Just crazy that Penn State that they
24:50
Speaker 1: can't that Franklin can't do it, man, and he's got
24:54
Speaker 1: enough talent there at Penn State. They've loaded up on
24:56
Speaker 1: their offense this year, same quarterback as last year, al
24:59
Speaker 1: u of them. I'm not sure how good he really is.
25:01
Speaker 1: Penn State's defense should be good as well. I mean,
25:04
Speaker 1: that was a fairly low scoring game until it went
25:06
Speaker 1: into overtime, so the defenses actually did show up in
25:09
Speaker 1: that game. But now Penn State have to go on
25:11
Speaker 1: the road for literally their first road game of the
25:14
Speaker 1: entire season, and it's a game where they have to
25:16
Speaker 1: go to the Pacific Coast. I know it's not a
25:18
Speaker 1: late night Pacific Coast game, because if it was, maybe
25:21
Speaker 1: it would escalate it to a play for me man.
25:23
Speaker 1: I talk about that when an Eastern team has to
25:25
Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast, it fucks with their
25:27
Speaker 1: biological clock. It's like the worst biological clock situation because
25:31
Speaker 1: you got to play late night out there. This isn't
25:34
Speaker 1: one of those, but I think it's still a weird spot.
25:36
Speaker 1: It's a bad spot for Penn State having to go
25:39
Speaker 1: out there. Man, they're not used to doing it. They
25:40
Speaker 1: haven't traveled at all this year, which makes it more difficult,
25:44
Speaker 1: and they might just overlook it and it might be
25:46
Speaker 1: a play for me if it was a sandwich spot,
25:48
Speaker 1: if Penn State had a bigger game up next, I
25:50
Speaker 1: would probably be looking. I would maybe give out the
25:53
Speaker 1: play on Ucla and this one if they did. It's
25:55
Speaker 1: very close to a play for me, man, this one
25:58
Speaker 1: playing on UCLA here plus points, this one and Kentucky
26:02
Speaker 1: I like them, man, But Penn State, Yeah, I mean
26:06
Speaker 1: they're only facing Northwestern next, so it's not really a
26:09
Speaker 1: huge look ahead. Ucla, I know their own four and
26:12
Speaker 1: the public is gonna want nothing to do with them here.
26:14
Speaker 1: They haven't exactly played a totally difficult schedule. I mean
26:18
Speaker 1: they're one, like seriously good team. I think that they
26:20
Speaker 1: played was Utah. But what did UCLA do? I talked
26:24
Speaker 1: about this last week. They fired their coach after they
26:26
Speaker 1: lost to New Mexico, and I think it gave them
26:29
Speaker 1: a spark last week. Man, I think they're interim coach
26:32
Speaker 1: they have there's probably better than I forget the name
26:34
Speaker 1: of the coach. They fired, but they played better. At
26:36
Speaker 1: least they were an underdog and they played on the
26:39
Speaker 1: road at Northwestern, which is an environment they're not used
26:42
Speaker 1: to playing, and there were six and a half point
26:44
Speaker 1: underdogs and they covered the spread. They played better in
26:46
Speaker 1: the game. I mean, they came back. They were down
26:48
Speaker 1: seventeen to nothing, so Ucla they could have just said
26:51
Speaker 1: fuck it again, I packed it in, but no, they
26:53
Speaker 1: stayed motivated, so they gave you like a full game
26:56
Speaker 1: of effort at least, and they almost came back and won.
26:58
Speaker 1: So I think that's a good sign for UCLA that
27:01
Speaker 1: at least mentally they seem to be in better shape here.
27:04
Speaker 1: And statistically it was a close game too, And this
27:07
Speaker 1: is Penn State coming into their place, so you know
27:09
Speaker 1: they're gonna at least have motivation. It's just a matter
27:12
Speaker 1: of how much of a mismatch is this. UCLA at
27:15
Speaker 1: least does have Nico still a quarterback there who is
27:18
Speaker 1: used to facing good defenses, at least because he was
27:20
Speaker 1: in the SEC last year, So there is something to
27:23
Speaker 1: be said there for the UCLA side, So I do
27:26
Speaker 1: lean that way. Penn State is public, they're down from
27:29
Speaker 1: twenty six to twenty four and a half if you
27:31
Speaker 1: like it. Twenty four is a somewhat key number, so
27:33
Speaker 1: you can still get the plus twenty four and a
27:35
Speaker 1: half right now if you want to do it. Eighty
27:38
Speaker 1: five percent of tickets only seventy seven percent of cash
27:40
Speaker 1: on Penn State, so the money is agreeing with that
27:43
Speaker 1: and fading the public Penn State side there, and the
27:46
Speaker 1: total is dropped from fifty to forty eight. So you
27:49
Speaker 1: got a forty eight total and you're getting twenty four
27:51
Speaker 1: and a half points. It looks like that's the way
27:54
Speaker 1: to go, man. I mean, if Penn State's gonna cover
27:57
Speaker 1: that number, you're basically asking them to almost shut out LA.
28:00
Speaker 1: I mean, not quite but close to that in the game.
28:03
Speaker 1: I mean it could happen, but yeah, I mean with
28:07
Speaker 1: a low total like that, Again, the points went up
28:09
Speaker 1: being worth more and you're getting twenty four twenty four
28:11
Speaker 1: and a half of them there, So I think the
28:13
Speaker 1: only way that you could play that is to take
28:15
Speaker 1: the points with UCLA. The one maybe biggest hesitation with
28:19
Speaker 1: that would be that James Franklin is known for beating
28:22
Speaker 1: up on bad teams. That's what he does. He loses
28:25
Speaker 1: all these Top ten matchups and even when he's off
28:28
Speaker 1: of like losing some of those big games. Sometimes he
28:30
Speaker 1: still gets the team motivated though, and they're able to win.
28:33
Speaker 1: Like he's a bully. He doesn't take his foot off
28:36
Speaker 1: the gas. That's the problem. So if Penn State does
28:39
Speaker 1: actually show up, So if you're playing your CLA, you're
28:41
Speaker 1: banking on Penn State not really showing up, which could
28:44
Speaker 1: definitely happen off of that big loss that they just had.
28:47
Speaker 1: But if they do show up, James Franklin runs up
28:50
Speaker 1: the score. That's the problem. Man. With taking underdogs against
28:53
Speaker 1: him like this, He's gonna probably try to run up
28:56
Speaker 1: the score if he has the opportunity to do so.
28:58
Speaker 1: He does that. He does. He doesn't put his backups.
29:01
Speaker 1: And even though with the new nil stuff and whatever,
29:03
Speaker 1: you don't really need to with a new excuse me,
29:06
Speaker 1: with a new playoff format, excuse me, you don't really
29:08
Speaker 1: need to run up the score as much, you don't
29:10
Speaker 1: need style points, but he still does it for whatever reason.
29:15
Speaker 1: ESPN also at three point thirty. I don't know which
29:18
Speaker 1: one of these is College Game Day, by the way,
29:19
Speaker 1: so somebody can let me know which spot the College
29:22
Speaker 1: Game Day game this year, I'm not sure it might
29:24
Speaker 1: be vanned is Vandy and Alabama? No, probably not, because
29:27
Speaker 1: I think it was Alabama last week. I don't know.
29:29
Speaker 1: I don't know where the fuck they are this week,
29:31
Speaker 1: but we do have It might be this game Texas Florida.
29:33
Speaker 1: I don't even know, but Florida sitting at one and three.
29:36
Speaker 1: Everybody's making fun of Florida. Man, at this point, Florida
29:40
Speaker 1: looks like another bad season here. Billy Napier. I mean,
29:44
Speaker 1: if Florida doesn't do something fast, Napier is going to
29:46
Speaker 1: be out of there before the season's over. Man, he's
29:49
Speaker 1: gonna get his ass fired. But if they win this
29:51
Speaker 1: game against Texas, he might save his job. So I
29:54
Speaker 1: think there is motivation. I know I keep saying this
29:56
Speaker 1: with Florida that they have motivation and it just hasn't
29:59
Speaker 1: paid out yet. But there's still a team that's been
30:02
Speaker 1: playing some decent defense. And some of these scores, as
30:05
Speaker 1: I pointed out, have been misleading. Man, Like this game
30:07
Speaker 1: against LSU, Florida outgained them in the game, probably should
30:11
Speaker 1: have been able to win the game. They had minus
30:13
Speaker 1: four and turnovers in that game outgained LSU on the road,
30:18
Speaker 1: only lost by ten Despite being minus four in turnovers,
30:21
Speaker 1: so they could have won that game. And then I
30:23
Speaker 1: did give out Florida as a play against Miami. I
30:26
Speaker 1: know they lost twenty six to seven, but in this game, yeah,
30:29
Speaker 1: I mean they did get out gained by quite a bit.
30:31
Speaker 1: Their offense just really really failed in that game. But
30:34
Speaker 1: Lagway looks like he might not be totally healthy. So
30:37
Speaker 1: that's one thing that you gotta be aware of coming
30:39
Speaker 1: into this game. DJ Lagway for Florida, I mean, he's
30:43
Speaker 1: supposed to be the guy after Mertz or whatever his
30:46
Speaker 1: name was, got hurt, Lagway came in. He's the guy
30:49
Speaker 1: that everybody wanted. He played a little bit better towards
30:51
Speaker 1: this when he came in I think towards the later
30:54
Speaker 1: half of last year. But he has not been playing
30:56
Speaker 1: well this year, and I don't know if he's hurt
30:57
Speaker 1: or what. But then on the other side, Texas, I mean,
31:00
Speaker 1: they're not really living up to expectations either, except their
31:03
Speaker 1: defense is really really good. So in this game, we
31:05
Speaker 1: have two teams that are much better on defense than
31:07
Speaker 1: they are on offense. These are both defense oriented teams.
31:10
Speaker 1: Texas may still again have the best defense in the country.
31:15
Speaker 1: Man here they haven't really quite done anything yet, though
31:19
Speaker 1: it's inspiring confidence. I mean, they lost a close defense
31:22
Speaker 1: a battle Ohio State, who might be the best team
31:25
Speaker 1: in the country, even though they have a very inexperienced quarterback.
31:28
Speaker 1: There so no real shame in that loss. And then Texas,
31:32
Speaker 1: I mean, they've really just done what they're supposed to
31:34
Speaker 1: do since then, except even though they beat San Jose
31:37
Speaker 1: State and sam Houston State easily. That game against UTEP,
31:41
Speaker 1: I know it's in in state a little brother situation
31:43
Speaker 1: where UTEP might step up their game. But this game
31:46
Speaker 1: did not look good for Texas. Man. Texas didn't really
31:50
Speaker 1: put up a whole lot of yards through the air.
31:51
Speaker 1: I think arch Manning did not look very good. So
31:54
Speaker 1: Arch Manning maybe he's not what he's cracked up to be. Man,
31:58
Speaker 1: he has not really done anything yet as far as
32:01
Speaker 1: showing that he's done one of these like top tier
32:04
Speaker 1: quarterbacks here. Man, it's not looking good for him. So
32:07
Speaker 1: that is definitely a drawback for Texas. Both of these
32:10
Speaker 1: teams are coming out of buys as far as the
32:11
Speaker 1: situation is concerned. You know, I talk about that too.
32:14
Speaker 1: Though Texas went into the buy and a good note.
32:16
Speaker 1: They won three games in a row, they won fifty
32:18
Speaker 1: five to nothing. Manning finally had a good performance three
32:22
Speaker 1: hundred nine yards against Sam Houston. He only had one
32:24
Speaker 1: hundred and fourteen against UTEP and the game wasn't enough
32:27
Speaker 1: of a blowout to take him out either, so I
32:29
Speaker 1: don't think they took him out, So he's not doing well.
32:31
Speaker 1: Man Texas went into the bye though, on a good note,
32:34
Speaker 1: so I talk about that too. They went into the
32:37
Speaker 1: buying the good note. You don't really have anything to
32:39
Speaker 1: fix coming out of that bye, So it's gonna be
32:42
Speaker 1: a little bit of a difficult spot for Texas for
32:45
Speaker 1: that reason, and it could be a look at spot
32:47
Speaker 1: because they have their big Red River rivalry game next week,
32:50
Speaker 1: which is now a n SEC rivalry against Oklahoma, and
32:53
Speaker 1: Oklahoma is up to fifth in the country now, so
32:56
Speaker 1: that's gonna be a big deal. That's a big game.
32:58
Speaker 1: So it might be a look ahead for Tech here
33:00
Speaker 1: as well. Florida, they gotta be motivated here, man, They
33:04
Speaker 1: got to do something here. They are coming out of
33:06
Speaker 1: the buy as well, and I talk about these this
33:08
Speaker 1: inverted by situation. Florida went into the buy in a
33:11
Speaker 1: bad note, losing to LSU and Miami there, so I
33:15
Speaker 1: know those are teams that are highly ranked here, so
33:17
Speaker 1: they did, and both those games are on the road.
33:20
Speaker 1: Now they're coming out of that, they're back home. This
33:21
Speaker 1: is actually their SEC home opener here. It's a big
33:24
Speaker 1: deal for Texas. They they gotta get this one man
33:27
Speaker 1: in the swamp. I mean, it is still the swamp.
33:31
Speaker 1: The crowd's gonna be crazy Texas coming in. It's the
33:34
Speaker 1: home opener here for Florida for the SEC, so they
33:37
Speaker 1: gotta get it done. Man, if they're gonna do anything
33:39
Speaker 1: this year, I think it's a spot where Florida's gonna
33:42
Speaker 1: be more motivated. Florida's actually played the more difficult schedule too,
33:45
Speaker 1: because they played at LSU and Miami. Texas played Ohio
33:48
Speaker 1: State and basically nobody since then, so Florida's more recently
33:52
Speaker 1: battle tested too. So yeah, I mean I lean to
33:56
Speaker 1: Florida on this game. This was actually close to a
33:58
Speaker 1: play for me as well. The money looks like it's
34:00
Speaker 1: slightly coming into Texas for now, but I don't really
34:03
Speaker 1: think that that's really the case. It looks like it
34:05
Speaker 1: might have been close to a seven. I don't know,
34:07
Speaker 1: the seven's are really out there though. On Texas, they're
34:09
Speaker 1: down from six and a half basically to five and
34:11
Speaker 1: a half. The line's dropping though, man, So I mean,
34:14
Speaker 1: if you like Florida, I mean, it's in no man's
34:17
Speaker 1: land right now five and a half. So maybe you
34:18
Speaker 1: could wait to see if you get a better number.
34:20
Speaker 1: But I don't think you're gonna get better than I mean,
34:22
Speaker 1: I guess you might be able to find a six
34:23
Speaker 1: out there still in Florida. So if you can find that,
34:26
Speaker 1: I would probably take it, whatever it is. I mean,
34:28
Speaker 1: if you're gonna play it, I would probably still take
34:30
Speaker 1: the five and a half. I mean, it looks too
34:32
Speaker 1: easy to lay the points with Texas, right You got
34:35
Speaker 1: a top ten ranked team with Texas against a Florida
34:38
Speaker 1: team that everybody's just making fun of. The line is
34:41
Speaker 1: really really low at five and a half at this point,
34:44
Speaker 1: and it's almost like the books are just begging you
34:46
Speaker 1: to take Texas sixty four percent or lay the points
34:49
Speaker 1: sixty four percent, tickets sixty five percent of the cash
34:51
Speaker 1: on Texas though for now. But I think come game time,
34:54
Speaker 1: you're gonna see the cash percentage is not gonna be
34:56
Speaker 1: on Texas anymore. I think if you're gonna play the game,
34:59
Speaker 1: you gotta take the points with Florida, and it is
35:01
Speaker 1: a low scoring, a low total, I mean down for
35:04
Speaker 1: forty three and after forty two and a half. I
35:05
Speaker 1: talked about how it's two teams that play defense and
35:08
Speaker 1: they don't really play offense. So the total is low
35:11
Speaker 1: forty two and a half. But the money is coming
35:13
Speaker 1: in on the over fifty one percent of cash on
35:15
Speaker 1: the under seventy percent of cash on the over fifty
35:18
Speaker 1: one percent of tickets, excuse me, on the under seventy
35:20
Speaker 1: percent of cash on the over So do with all
35:23
Speaker 1: that information what you will. But it's a low total.
35:25
Speaker 1: So if you're taking points, it's good that you have
35:28
Speaker 1: a low total there when you're taking points, and that's
35:30
Speaker 1: a decent sign for that Billy Gapey area. That sounds
35:36
Speaker 1: bad for a couple of different reasons. The Alligator Alcatraz, Yeah,
35:40
Speaker 1: that's what they should start calling the swamp man. I
35:43
Speaker 1: don't know how many illegal immigrants they house in that stadium.
35:48
Speaker 1: But also, if you're a Florida fan right now, you
35:50
Speaker 1: probably feel like you're trapped. You probably feel like you're
35:53
Speaker 1: in prison at this point. But yeah, I mean, I
35:57
Speaker 1: think Florida is the right side in that game. ABC
36:01
Speaker 1: three thirty, number sixteen Vandy five and zero in the
36:04
Speaker 1: season against number ten Alabama at three and one. This
36:07
Speaker 1: is an interesting one, man, This is a game where
36:11
Speaker 1: you know me, normally, I'd be like, well, I think
36:13
Speaker 1: Alabama is in a letdown spot, right because they just
36:15
Speaker 1: beat Georgia, huge game. It's always one of their biggest
36:18
Speaker 1: games of the season. They beat Georgia, they did it
36:21
Speaker 1: on the road. But I'm not so sure this time, man,
36:24
Speaker 1: that the letdown spot is really the only factor here. Yes,
36:29
Speaker 1: it could be a little bit of a letdown spot,
36:31
Speaker 1: but remember what Vandy did to Alabama last year. Man,
36:34
Speaker 1: Vandy went into Alabama's house last year. I think, excuse me,
36:40
Speaker 1: it was at Vandy. Excuse me. Alabama had to go
36:42
Speaker 1: to Vandy last year. Excuse me. And Alabama was a
36:45
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half point favorite. I think when
36:47
Speaker 1: the game went off on the road, they were definitely
36:49
Speaker 1: more than a twenty point favorite on the road last year.
36:51
Speaker 1: So remember that number. And we know Vandy upset them
36:55
Speaker 1: and beat them out right, But I believe it was
36:57
Speaker 1: a bad spot for Alabama when that happened. We look
37:00
Speaker 1: at the spot that that was in last year, where
37:04
Speaker 1: is it They actually had just come off beating Georgia,
37:08
Speaker 1: So it's a very similar setup. Man. They beat Georgia
37:10
Speaker 1: and they lost to Vandy in the next week, so
37:13
Speaker 1: it's the same setup. It's just different venues where that
37:17
Speaker 1: was at home against Georgia and then they had to
37:19
Speaker 1: go to Vandy. So that's crazy, man, how it sets
37:22
Speaker 1: up almost the same way. But I think that's why
37:24
Speaker 1: you maybe don't want to fade Alabama here, because you
37:26
Speaker 1: know they're gonna remember that that was their first loss
37:29
Speaker 1: last year, was their most embarrassing upset loss last year,
37:32
Speaker 1: So I think because of that, they're not gonna take
37:34
Speaker 1: Vandy lightly here. A lot of these Alabama players are
37:37
Speaker 1: the same. I know they have a different quarterback, Simpson.
37:39
Speaker 1: He's playing pretty well so far this year. And you
37:43
Speaker 1: should probably do okay against a Vandy defense. It's actually
37:46
Speaker 1: not really that good. Vandy. Their offense is really what's good.
37:49
Speaker 1: But Alabama they have a good defense man, which is
37:52
Speaker 1: usually the case, but it is the case again here.
37:54
Speaker 1: I think this defense can slow Vandy down. They're gonna
37:57
Speaker 1: remember what Vandy did last year, and they're facing pretty
38:00
Speaker 1: much the same Vandy offense as last year, same Vandy team. Really,
38:04
Speaker 1: Vandy brought back a lot of their players, including their
38:06
Speaker 1: quarterback Pavia, who is really good. I mean, he's a
38:10
Speaker 1: small dude, but he goes out there and he just
38:11
Speaker 1: has a lot of He's like one of the most
38:14
Speaker 1: motivated quarterbacks that you'll see. Man. He is a leader
38:17
Speaker 1: for Vandy there. But I think Alabama, because of what
38:20
Speaker 1: happened last year. I think Alabama is going to be
38:23
Speaker 1: focused on this game, man, just for that reason. So
38:25
Speaker 1: I don't really know that it's going to be a
38:27
Speaker 1: let down spot where they're just not going to pay
38:29
Speaker 1: attention Vandy coming into this game. They're rolling right now.
38:32
Speaker 1: They won again against Utah State last week. They gave
38:35
Speaker 1: up thirty five points. I know, you just state they
38:38
Speaker 1: look like they're playing decently with Bronco menden Hall there,
38:40
Speaker 1: But that's still not really that great a sign that
38:42
Speaker 1: Vandy gave up that many points. So though you could
38:45
Speaker 1: argue they weren't really paying attention and now they interface
38:47
Speaker 1: Alabama like, well maybe because they were looking ahead to Alabama,
38:52
Speaker 1: maybe they weren't paying attention. Yes, I know Vandy's been
38:54
Speaker 1: putting up some gaudy point totals here, putting up one
38:58
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty five points in the last few games.
39:00
Speaker 1: One was against Georgia State. Though they're defense is in
39:02
Speaker 1: that good Utah States defense is still not good either.
39:05
Speaker 1: Vandy has not really played that difficult to schedule. Man,
39:08
Speaker 1: South Carolina, They're really not that good, as we pointed out.
39:11
Speaker 1: And I had Vandy in that game. I gave Vandy
39:13
Speaker 1: out as a play in that game, and Vandy stomped them.
39:15
Speaker 1: And I know Sellers got injured in the game for
39:17
Speaker 1: South Carolina. But South Carolina is not as good as
39:20
Speaker 1: we thought they were, were not as good as they
39:22
Speaker 1: were ranked, I should say back then. And Vandy did
39:25
Speaker 1: play Virginia Tech was the other difficult opponent they faced,
39:29
Speaker 1: but they beat them up. Man, they beat them easily.
39:33
Speaker 1: So that was probably those two were their best wins. Yeah,
39:36
Speaker 1: but Alabama's facing the more difficult schedules still. I mean,
39:39
Speaker 1: Alabama faced Florida State and Georgia, so Alabama is the
39:43
Speaker 1: more battle tested team as well coming into this one.
39:46
Speaker 1: And remember I said on the road last year, similar teams.
39:50
Speaker 1: Vandy's almost the same team Alabama. I know they have
39:53
Speaker 1: a lesser quarterback this year. But Alabama was a twenty
39:57
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite at Vandy last year
39:59
Speaker 1: and now they're only laying eleven and a half in
40:01
Speaker 1: this game, So it's like, what gives? So the line
40:03
Speaker 1: value really has to be on Alabama here. Man. When
40:06
Speaker 1: I first thought about this game, I was like, oh,
40:08
Speaker 1: let down spot for Alabama makes sense, But then you
40:10
Speaker 1: dig into this game and I actually don't think that's
40:13
Speaker 1: what we want to do here. Again, I think you're
40:16
Speaker 1: getting a lot of value here. I mean the fact
40:18
Speaker 1: that Alabama was twenty three and a half point of
40:20
Speaker 1: twenty three and a half point road favorite last year.
40:22
Speaker 1: I know that line was probably too high. They lost
40:25
Speaker 1: the game outright, but eleven and a half just seems
40:28
Speaker 1: really really low here. I think the value is on Alabama.
40:31
Speaker 1: They're down from minus thirteen and a half to minus
40:33
Speaker 1: eleven and a half, sixty percent of ticket seventy two
40:35
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Alabama's even though Alabama is
40:38
Speaker 1: the slightly public side because they're Alabama, the money is
40:42
Speaker 1: actually coming in on Alabama too, and you're getting a
40:44
Speaker 1: little bit more value there, better number there. So I
40:47
Speaker 1: would actually lean towards laying the points of Alabama in
40:50
Speaker 1: that game. Thank you, charlesy. I don't forget to like
40:54
Speaker 1: give me a like here like subscribe. Of course I
40:56
Speaker 1: should say that at the top of the show. I
40:57
Speaker 1: always say at the end, We've got a lot of
41:00
Speaker 1: big games here, man, But hopefully I'm not going to
41:02
Speaker 1: talk about too many of the other games here, so
41:03
Speaker 1: we can not have this video go ridiculously long. Boise
41:07
Speaker 1: at Notre Dame is pretty interesting too, man, Boise at
41:11
Speaker 1: three and one. I mean, the only game they lost
41:13
Speaker 1: so far is that game where we saw them just
41:15
Speaker 1: play a horrendous game at South Florida, and they've won
41:18
Speaker 1: their game. Since then, they haven't really played anybody, so
41:21
Speaker 1: Notre Dames played a much more difficult schedule. Notre Dame's
41:24
Speaker 1: still ranked at twenty first. Notre Dame absolutely smashed Arkansas
41:28
Speaker 1: on the road last week, and I told you I
41:30
Speaker 1: leaned to Arkansas in that game, and I was wrong.
41:33
Speaker 1: Notre Dame actually absolutely destroyed them. This Notre Dame offense
41:38
Speaker 1: playing shockingly well. Even with Carr at quarterback, who I
41:42
Speaker 1: think is their replacement quarterback this year. I think he
41:44
Speaker 1: might have been one of their backups last year. This
41:47
Speaker 1: offense is moving along, and we already knew they had
41:49
Speaker 1: a good ground game, but I think Notre Dame's defense
41:52
Speaker 1: is actually surprisingly not very good so far this year.
41:55
Speaker 1: I know they held Arkansas down. Arkansas does have a
41:58
Speaker 1: pretty capable offense there, but Notre Dame gave up a
42:02
Speaker 1: lot of points to Texas A and M and Purdue.
42:05
Speaker 1: I know Texas A and M can move the ball
42:07
Speaker 1: to but Purdue, that Purdue offense, I don't think there's
42:10
Speaker 1: anything very good at all. And Notre Dame, I mean
42:14
Speaker 1: they kind of struggled with their depense. There's just Notre
42:16
Speaker 1: Dame deepense looks like it's not really as good as
42:18
Speaker 1: last year. Right, So yeah, man, I mean it's difficult
42:24
Speaker 1: to figure this game out, to be honest. This game
42:26
Speaker 1: is at Notre Dame. It's gonna be a big game
42:28
Speaker 1: for Boise, but they don't usually have to travel to
42:30
Speaker 1: Self Bend either a Notre Dame, as I pointed out,
42:33
Speaker 1: they've had a difficult schedule so far. They played no
42:35
Speaker 1: FCS teams. They played Miami in Texas A and M
42:38
Speaker 1: to open the season, and both of those teams are
42:40
Speaker 1: I think ranked in the top ten right now. Whether
42:43
Speaker 1: you buy those rankings or not. I think they might
42:45
Speaker 1: be both a little bit overrated right now. But those
42:48
Speaker 1: are still good teams in Arkansas, still solid too, So
42:51
Speaker 1: Notre Dame has faced a way more difficult schedule here
42:54
Speaker 1: soon that they have the worst record, I think we
42:56
Speaker 1: know Notre Dame is the better of these two teams. Boise.
42:59
Speaker 1: I mean they play in a conference. I mean their wins,
43:01
Speaker 1: I mean their games have been really easy so far.
43:04
Speaker 1: South Florida is not even that good. And then they
43:06
Speaker 1: played FCS Eastern Washington. They played air Force and somewhat
43:10
Speaker 1: struggled in that game on the road. And then they
43:13
Speaker 1: beat app State last week and I thought app State
43:15
Speaker 1: was in a decent spot, or I thought Boise was
43:17
Speaker 1: kind of in a bad spot. Really he was more
43:19
Speaker 1: like it, but Boise crushed them. Anyway. Now boys are
43:23
Speaker 1: going on the road, I mean, Boise. They got to
43:25
Speaker 1: be motivated though, because they got to pretty much run
43:28
Speaker 1: the table at this point. Man, if they want to
43:30
Speaker 1: try to make the playoff despite having that one loss,
43:34
Speaker 1: winning against Notre Dame would be big for them. But though,
43:36
Speaker 1: of course Notre Dame is still trying to make the
43:39
Speaker 1: playoff too, and they can't afford to lose. So I
43:41
Speaker 1: mean Notre Dame, their chances might be might be gone
43:45
Speaker 1: because they're not in a conference, they're independence and they
43:48
Speaker 1: might already be Yeah, I'm looking at maybe their chances
43:51
Speaker 1: are gone, but I think they still kind of think
43:53
Speaker 1: that maybe they still have it, So maybe they're still
43:55
Speaker 1: gonna have motivation for that reason. But you're laying a
43:58
Speaker 1: lot of points with Notre Dame. Here is up from
44:00
Speaker 1: seventeen af very soon, the numbers up from seventeen and
44:02
Speaker 1: a half to twenty one. Seventy nine percent of take
44:05
Speaker 1: a sixty eight percent of the cash on Notre Dame.
44:07
Speaker 1: So Notre Dame's public with less of the cash on them.
44:10
Speaker 1: So the money, even though it looks like it initially
44:12
Speaker 1: drove the line up on Notre Dame. And I know
44:14
Speaker 1: it looks weird seeing a twenty one point favorite that's
44:17
Speaker 1: two and two against a three to one team. So
44:20
Speaker 1: that would make you think that maybe the public wouldn't
44:22
Speaker 1: want to be on Notre Dame here, but they are
44:24
Speaker 1: because they're ranked. It's Notre Dame. Yeah, man, I mean,
44:28
Speaker 1: the the market read says to take the points here
44:31
Speaker 1: with Boise. Ugh. I mean, I don't know if I
44:36
Speaker 1: I mean, obviously I'm not gonna give it out as
44:38
Speaker 1: a play. I mean, it's tough to say that because
44:40
Speaker 1: we know Notre Dames faced a way more difficult schedule,
44:45
Speaker 1: and because the records of the two teams are a
44:48
Speaker 1: little bit misleading. So yeah, I mean it's also a
44:52
Speaker 1: really high total. Man, you know, usually see Notre You're like,
44:54
Speaker 1: you're not used to having Notre Dame having a high
44:56
Speaker 1: total like that in the sixties. It's down for sixty
44:59
Speaker 1: three to sixty two and a half, only eighty seven
45:01
Speaker 1: percent of tickets, with only seventy three percent of cash
45:03
Speaker 1: on the over though, so the money somewhat playing the
45:06
Speaker 1: under in that game. But we know we have we
45:09
Speaker 1: basically have two offenses that have looked good so far
45:11
Speaker 1: and two depfenses that might not really be that good.
45:14
Speaker 1: So there's a reason why that total is that high. Yeah,
45:18
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want anything to do with that game.
45:20
Speaker 1: That that game, I don't even have a very strong
45:23
Speaker 1: opinion on it at all. Yeah, I mean, the market
45:26
Speaker 1: read is probably where you just have to default and
45:28
Speaker 1: take the points with poise, But I really really don't
45:31
Speaker 1: love it. Uh, Nate is only gonna like it if
45:35
Speaker 1: I don't slander on Nebraska, I'll talk about the Nebraska
45:38
Speaker 1: game and you'll have to wait and see. Dude, if
45:40
Speaker 1: I just say that I have an opinion against Nebraska, though,
45:44
Speaker 1: is that enough? Is that? Does that qualify slander? Though?
45:47
Speaker 1: If I just don't think they're gonna cover in a
45:49
Speaker 1: particular game or something, I don't know, Man, is that
45:52
Speaker 1: really slander Purdue as the Yeah, the chicken finger attack, Man,
45:57
Speaker 1: you gotta worry about that. It's a solid attack. Virginia
45:59
Speaker 1: and Louisville. I'm gonna talk about that game as one
46:02
Speaker 1: of my best bets. I'm gonna skip a couple of
46:04
Speaker 1: these games here into the night Slate. Here we have
46:07
Speaker 1: an ESPN Texas Tech ranked eleventh in the country four
46:12
Speaker 1: and oh going to Houston who is four and oh,
46:16
Speaker 1: we know Houston is not as good as Texas Tech. Obviously,
46:18
Speaker 1: Texas Tech. They brought in that oil money. Man, I'm
46:21
Speaker 1: not joking with the new nil stuff. Texas Tech brought
46:24
Speaker 1: in all this money and they stacked their team pretty much,
46:27
Speaker 1: which is why they're this good. We think of Texas Tech,
46:29
Speaker 1: is this really good offensive team. And I was still
46:32
Speaker 1: kind of questioning how good their defense would be. But
46:34
Speaker 1: they look like they're pretty good on both sides of
46:36
Speaker 1: the ball here, man, the Texas Tech team, they really
46:39
Speaker 1: surprised me in the one win that really means anything,
46:42
Speaker 1: which is against Utah. They went in and they beat Utah.
46:46
Speaker 1: That was their one big win on the road at Utah.
46:49
Speaker 1: Big win. But Texas Tech, what happened? Man? They went
46:53
Speaker 1: into a bye after that, And I talk about this, man,
46:55
Speaker 1: when you have a BUYE and you haven't even lost
46:57
Speaker 1: a game yet, that buy is not helpful because again,
47:00
Speaker 1: what do you fix? And it's even worse because they
47:03
Speaker 1: went in on a huge win against Utah. They knocked
47:06
Speaker 1: Utah out of the rankings. Texas tex quarterback Morton I
47:09
Speaker 1: think got hurt in the game and Hammond came in,
47:12
Speaker 1: but I think Morton is probably back in this one.
47:15
Speaker 1: And yes, I know Texas Tech's offense is really good.
47:17
Speaker 1: But again, you have nothing to fix in that buy.
47:20
Speaker 1: So I think that bye is not actually that helpful.
47:23
Speaker 1: And Houston's gonna consider themselves to be a little brother
47:26
Speaker 1: in the state at Texas here. You know what, am
47:29
Speaker 1: I gonna add this as a play? Should I elevate
47:31
Speaker 1: this one to a play? Because there were a couple
47:33
Speaker 1: of extra factors here that I like, but the fact
47:35
Speaker 1: that I mean I already was considering the fact that
47:38
Speaker 1: it was a bad buye for Texas Tech, an unhelpful
47:41
Speaker 1: buy Houston last week. Remember last week I gave out
47:45
Speaker 1: a play on Oregon State last week in Oregon State
47:47
Speaker 1: plus the thirteen and a half no sweat cover there,
47:50
Speaker 1: and they almost won the game out right, they went
47:52
Speaker 1: into overtime. So yes, I know Houston went into overtime.
47:55
Speaker 1: Houston did have to play last week, but they do
47:57
Speaker 1: at least have an extra day off because it was
47:59
Speaker 1: a Friday. But I talked about this, I thought Houston
48:02
Speaker 1: they were just not tested at all. It was the
48:04
Speaker 1: first time they were traveling outside of the city of Houston,
48:07
Speaker 1: so it was a really weird spot for them having
48:09
Speaker 1: to play a late night Pacific Coast game like that.
48:12
Speaker 1: Oregon State had the motivation to get up for it
48:14
Speaker 1: because they don't usually host games like that, playing against
48:17
Speaker 1: a big conference team like that too, where Oregon State
48:20
Speaker 1: no longer one of those teams, so it was a
48:23
Speaker 1: much bigger game for Oregon State. But I think because
48:25
Speaker 1: Houston was a double digit favored and they played bad
48:28
Speaker 1: in that game. I think they were probably already looking
48:31
Speaker 1: ahead to Texas Tech, and I think they're gonna be
48:33
Speaker 1: motivated here. This is a big game for them, big
48:35
Speaker 1: ESPN game here. I'm considering giving this out as a
48:37
Speaker 1: play right now. Man, maybe I will have four plays
48:40
Speaker 1: here and you'll get an early play for me, which
48:42
Speaker 1: is gonna be the weakest of my plays. Charles wants
48:45
Speaker 1: me to do it. I mean, the other thing I
48:48
Speaker 1: like about this, the thing that I wasn't considering, is
48:50
Speaker 1: the transitive property right. So what I mean by that
48:54
Speaker 1: is you have a common opponent here. Both of these
48:56
Speaker 1: teams played at Oregon State. Houston again last week went
49:00
Speaker 1: to Oregon State and they almost lost the game outright,
49:03
Speaker 1: whereas Texas Tech they absolutely obliterated Oregon State. And I
49:07
Speaker 1: know it was at home for Texas Tech, but even so,
49:11
Speaker 1: I mean, Texas Tech looked like the way better of
49:14
Speaker 1: the two teams there. Man. People are gonna like take
49:17
Speaker 1: that into account too, and see, oh, Texas Tech beat
49:19
Speaker 1: Oregon State by thirty one points or whatever that is,
49:22
Speaker 1: and Houston only beat them by three and almost lost
49:25
Speaker 1: to them. So this looks really easy, Like Texas Tech
49:27
Speaker 1: should blow Houston out right, well, again, you're getting a
49:31
Speaker 1: lot of points with Houston here. You're gonna be getting
49:33
Speaker 1: double digit points with Houston here. They're back home. I
49:36
Speaker 1: know they haven't faced a difficult schedule, but neither Is
49:38
Speaker 1: Texas Tech really Texas Tech? Yeah, they're one step up game.
49:41
Speaker 1: They definitely played well. They beat Utah. They did beat
49:44
Speaker 1: them on the scoreboard as well. Utah did have four
49:46
Speaker 1: turnovers though, so Utah lost the turnover battle by two
49:50
Speaker 1: in that one, but Texas Tech did out gain them.
49:52
Speaker 1: I was surprised by that. But and yes, that is
49:56
Speaker 1: a test against a good Utah defense. One of the
49:59
Speaker 1: factors here is Houston is a solid defense. That's like
50:02
Speaker 1: the one thing they have going for them is they're
50:03
Speaker 1: a pretty good defense. I know they haven't faced any
50:06
Speaker 1: team like Texas Tech yet though, so that's the one
50:09
Speaker 1: concern maybe with Houston, as they haven't really played anybody yet.
50:12
Speaker 1: Texas Tech at least did play one good defense there
50:15
Speaker 1: in Utah. But I still think it's a pretty unhelpful
50:17
Speaker 1: buy man. I think Houston is gonna be the more
50:20
Speaker 1: motivated of these two teams. I know Houston again, the
50:23
Speaker 1: best team they played was like it was Colorado. I
50:26
Speaker 1: guess they're just still not good at all. Houston was
50:29
Speaker 1: only like a five to six point favorite in that game,
50:31
Speaker 1: and they took care of business and covered. I mean,
50:36
Speaker 1: the public's gonna not want nothing to They're gonna want
50:38
Speaker 1: nothing to do with Houston here, very public. Texas Tech
50:41
Speaker 1: side eighty two percent of tickets, only eighty percent of
50:44
Speaker 1: the cash, and then they're rough from ten and a
50:45
Speaker 1: half to eleven and a half year. You know, this
50:49
Speaker 1: is one of the first games I looked at this week,
50:51
Speaker 1: and I did like Houston. I mean, obviously I do.
50:54
Speaker 1: I mean, that's the only way I would play this game. Man,
51:00
Speaker 1: Texas Tech betting Cherry, I don't. I don't think I've
51:02
Speaker 1: given out a play in any of their games yet, right,
51:05
Speaker 1: you know what, it's a late night game, but yeah,
51:08
Speaker 1: let's do it. Nobody's gonna nobody's gonna want this, man,
51:11
Speaker 1: And I don't know if there's any reason to even
51:13
Speaker 1: take this now. I mean, you might get a little
51:14
Speaker 1: bit of a better number tomorrow because the public's not
51:17
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, but it's kind of in no man's lands,
51:19
Speaker 1: so you at least have to get ten and a
51:20
Speaker 1: half on this obviously, because ten is a key number
51:23
Speaker 1: in Texas in football, So as long as you get that,
51:26
Speaker 1: it's fine. But you might be able to wait and
51:28
Speaker 1: get even like twelve and a half, but it doesn't
51:30
Speaker 1: matter as much of it, and I don't think it's gonna
51:32
Speaker 1: get to fourteen or anything like that. There you go,
51:34
Speaker 1: Houston plus eleven and a half. It's an early best
51:37
Speaker 1: bet in the show for me, a sneaking in a
51:39
Speaker 1: best bet there as I I already handicapped every single
51:43
Speaker 1: game on the board man between all the FBS teams,
51:46
Speaker 1: that that one just stood out to me a little
51:48
Speaker 1: bit more with that common opponent there. So, and it's
51:50
Speaker 1: obviously an anti public play. It's not really a low total,
51:54
Speaker 1: but it's not as high as you would think. It's
51:55
Speaker 1: a fifty one and a half down for fifty two.
51:58
Speaker 1: Public is all over the old. I mean, the public
52:00
Speaker 1: sees Texas Tech scoring a ton and they just go over.
52:04
Speaker 1: In Texas Tech games, ninety three percent of tickets on
52:06
Speaker 1: them ninety or on the over, I mean ninety six
52:09
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over two. But the
52:11
Speaker 1: money did kind of sneak down to that fifty one
52:13
Speaker 1: and a half. It is juice to the under now
52:14
Speaker 1: and fifty one is a key number, so the total
52:17
Speaker 1: is not quite as high as you would think. So basically,
52:20
Speaker 1: if you want Houston here, they got to slow down
52:22
Speaker 1: Texas Tech Texas Tech's offense. That's what US is gotta
52:25
Speaker 1: do here. Texas Tech does have a good offense a
52:27
Speaker 1: good defense as well, though, but they're more offensive than defensive.
52:32
Speaker 1: But again, yeah, it is an anti public play. I
52:35
Speaker 1: think it's a good situational play. You're gonna do it,
52:38
Speaker 1: all right, It's it's my least favor to the ones
52:41
Speaker 1: I'm giving out as a play though obviously, uh, and
52:44
Speaker 1: then I don't really want to talk about too many
52:46
Speaker 1: of these other games, but I will talk about these
52:48
Speaker 1: last two. One of them is gonna be one of
52:50
Speaker 1: my best bets. The other is not. But ABC at
52:53
Speaker 1: seven point thirty unless maybe this is the game day
52:56
Speaker 1: game at night here, because this is a big floor
52:57
Speaker 1: in a matchup man between number three four and oh
53:01
Speaker 1: Miami and number eighteen three and one the new revamped
53:05
Speaker 1: Florida State, which, by the way, Florida State has already
53:08
Speaker 1: scored over two hundred points this year and last year
53:11
Speaker 1: in the entire season they only scored like one hundred
53:13
Speaker 1: and seventy something, so Florida or one hundred and eighty
53:16
Speaker 1: maybe so Florida State has already surpassed the amount of
53:20
Speaker 1: points that they scored all of last year. But is
53:23
Speaker 1: Florida State really that improved? I don't know. I mean,
53:27
Speaker 1: the ranked eighteenth in the country right now, and I
53:29
Speaker 1: don't think that ranking is that far off. I think
53:32
Speaker 1: they are definitely improved, and I don't really want to
53:34
Speaker 1: say it because I don't like Castellanos, their quarterback, because
53:37
Speaker 1: of what he did here at BC. I'm still not
53:41
Speaker 1: sure that I trust him. But how much do we
53:44
Speaker 1: trust Miami? I know they're at four and oh, the
53:46
Speaker 1: ranked third in the country, but I think they're over
53:48
Speaker 1: rated right now. I mean, I think Miami's probably somewhere
53:51
Speaker 1: around maybe a top ten team. I don't think they're
53:53
Speaker 1: a top three team. Their defense is maybe better than
53:56
Speaker 1: you usually get out of Miami. I don't trust their
53:59
Speaker 1: coach at all, Mario Crystaball, so if you get a
54:01
Speaker 1: close game, it seems like he just makes dumb mistakes
54:04
Speaker 1: in close games, although it seems to happen more in
54:08
Speaker 1: games where the team just isn't paying attention to some
54:11
Speaker 1: weaker opponent. Like that fumble that everybody remembers against Georgia
54:14
Speaker 1: Tech a few years back. As far as the schedule Miami,
54:19
Speaker 1: I mean they've played a somewhat decent schedule, beating Notre Dame,
54:23
Speaker 1: I know, beating South Florida. It was a bad spot
54:26
Speaker 1: for South Florida. I gave out Miami on the show
54:28
Speaker 1: and that one it was an easy win on Miami,
54:30
Speaker 1: laying the points there despite the lightning delaying that game.
54:33
Speaker 1: But we know South Florida was not actually the eighteenth
54:35
Speaker 1: best team in the country, not even close. That game
54:39
Speaker 1: is It's not a win that is as good as
54:41
Speaker 1: it looks. And then they did beat Florida, which I
54:43
Speaker 1: actually think was a more impressive win than that USF one.
54:47
Speaker 1: But Miami is I believe they're coming out of a
54:49
Speaker 1: bye here right, Yeah, that Florida game was two weeks ago,
54:52
Speaker 1: so Miami is coming out of a bye. And again
54:54
Speaker 1: I talk about this. They went into the bye with
54:56
Speaker 1: no losses. Sometimes that's not a good thing, man, when
55:00
Speaker 1: again you have nothing to fix, Like, yes, this is
55:02
Speaker 1: a big rivalry game, so yes, both teams should show
55:05
Speaker 1: up for this. Miami is used to being the the
55:08
Speaker 1: little brother, though I think recently in the state of
55:10
Speaker 1: Florida to both Florida and Florida State, but now Miami
55:13
Speaker 1: is actually kind of the big brother because they're ranked
55:16
Speaker 1: highers of Florida State, probably coming into this game with
55:19
Speaker 1: the chip on their shoulder after Florida State was the
55:21
Speaker 1: was really bad last year, and they're ranked lesser than
55:25
Speaker 1: Miami this year too, so might be more motivation for
55:28
Speaker 1: Florida State. Miami. I think an inopportune by because they
55:32
Speaker 1: went into that buying a good note being two Florida
55:34
Speaker 1: teams in a row, so you have nothing to fix
55:37
Speaker 1: in the bye even though again you do use the
55:39
Speaker 1: buy to prep for Florida State, but you don't really
55:41
Speaker 1: have anything to fix Florida State. Here. They're coming in
55:47
Speaker 1: off that loss that we saw on Friday where they
55:49
Speaker 1: were favored at Virginia and I gave out Virginia on
55:52
Speaker 1: the show. If you remember, I said it was a
55:54
Speaker 1: bad spot for Florida State. It was their first road game.
55:57
Speaker 1: Florida State was very highly ranked, they were in the
55:59
Speaker 1: top ten. Then Virginia, I thought I was flying under
56:01
Speaker 1: the radar, went to two overtimes. That's one hesitation I
56:05
Speaker 1: do have is that Florida State played two overtimes while
56:08
Speaker 1: Miami had a buy. So yes, Miami obviously does have
56:11
Speaker 1: a rest advantage here, which does concern me a little
56:13
Speaker 1: bit about Florida State. But Florida State, I mean, they
56:15
Speaker 1: at least played on Friday, so at least they have
56:17
Speaker 1: one extra day off on what they would normally have.
56:22
Speaker 1: But again, it was a two overtime game. It was
56:23
Speaker 1: their first loss, and I talked about how that kind
56:25
Speaker 1: of carry over and hang you over into the next
56:28
Speaker 1: game a little bit. But this is still a big
56:31
Speaker 1: game for Florida State, man. I mean it is their
56:33
Speaker 1: ACC home opener as well, and it is against Miami,
56:37
Speaker 1: so you know Florida State's gonna show up here. I
56:40
Speaker 1: think the spot is still better for Florida State despite
56:43
Speaker 1: having to play that tough game last week. But it
56:45
Speaker 1: was still an upset loss. And you know teams when
56:48
Speaker 1: they're highly ranked like that and they lose games that
56:50
Speaker 1: they feel like they should have won, they tend to
56:53
Speaker 1: bounce back from that and they step up and play
56:55
Speaker 1: better in the next game. So I will lean to
56:57
Speaker 1: Florida State plus the points here. The money looks like
57:00
Speaker 1: it's slightly disagreeing with that Miami is up from three
57:03
Speaker 1: and a half to four. Here fifty five percent of
57:04
Speaker 1: tickets on them, sixty two percent of the cash on them,
57:07
Speaker 1: So the money is coming in on Miami slightly, but
57:11
Speaker 1: I disagree with it again, I would if I was
57:13
Speaker 1: gonna play this game, I would take the points with
57:15
Speaker 1: Florida State in that one. Yeah, I mean, I don't
57:19
Speaker 1: know if I have a whole lot else to say
57:20
Speaker 1: about that that game there, But the money's also kind
57:24
Speaker 1: of leaning towards the under as the totals dropping fifty
57:26
Speaker 1: five and after fifty three and a half. I think
57:28
Speaker 1: the public just sees both these teams and thinks offense
57:31
Speaker 1: Miami and Florida State. And it might be one of
57:33
Speaker 1: those games that has more of kind of a playoff
57:35
Speaker 1: atmosphere to it because it's such a big rivalry. Eighty
57:38
Speaker 1: three percent of tickets only eighty two percent of cash
57:41
Speaker 1: on the over, so under possibly worth a look in
57:44
Speaker 1: this one. I mean Miami at least coming out of
57:46
Speaker 1: the bye. I think the buy tends to slow down
57:48
Speaker 1: the offense a little bit more on the rest, helps
57:50
Speaker 1: the defense a little bit more of a Florida State
57:53
Speaker 1: defense might be a little bit banged up potentially after
57:57
Speaker 1: what happened in that last game there. They just had
57:58
Speaker 1: to play, you know, really a taxing game there. So
58:03
Speaker 1: those are my thoughts on that game. Let's see if
58:05
Speaker 1: I have any other games on the schedule that are
58:07
Speaker 1: not not games that involved ranked teams and also not
58:12
Speaker 1: games they are gonna be best bets for me. Let's
58:14
Speaker 1: see here. I don't know if I want to talk
58:16
Speaker 1: about it a ton of these other games, man, I mean,
58:19
Speaker 1: I mean, are any of these games really that much work?
58:21
Speaker 1: If you want to, if you want my opinion on
58:23
Speaker 1: some of these games, you can shout it out. Man.
58:24
Speaker 1: I usually talk about too many games though. I mean,
58:30
Speaker 1: I guess Kansas State Baylor is kind of a big game,
58:33
Speaker 1: and I don't really know if I have an opinion
58:34
Speaker 1: on this game. I mean, these two teams should be,
58:38
Speaker 1: you know, playing for the Big Ten here. I mean
58:41
Speaker 1: they're both one and one, so they're both still in
58:43
Speaker 1: the mix for the Big Ten. Baylor, I mean, they
58:45
Speaker 1: beat Oklahoma State last week. You remember I gave out
58:47
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State as a play there. I thought Baylor was
58:50
Speaker 1: kind of sandwiched in between Arizona State and Kansas State.
58:53
Speaker 1: I thought they wouldn't have full focus against Oklahoma State.
58:56
Speaker 1: Oklahoma stated just fired Gundhy, which I thought would be
58:58
Speaker 1: a spark. So I'm I mean that was a game
59:01
Speaker 1: where we got the win on Oklahoma State. They did cover,
59:04
Speaker 1: although it got a little bit questionable at the end,
59:06
Speaker 1: but it was a cover. Baylor's coming off that so
59:08
Speaker 1: it was kind of a lackluster game for Baylor. Maybe
59:11
Speaker 1: they were looking ahead here they got Kansas State. Although
59:13
Speaker 1: Baylor kind of all offense. For Baylor, their defense isn't
59:17
Speaker 1: really as good. Kansas State's defense is a little bit better,
59:20
Speaker 1: but I think Kansas State does struggle to a defend
59:22
Speaker 1: against the pass and Baylor can pass. As they brought
59:25
Speaker 1: back what's his face from last year? As I knock
59:28
Speaker 1: some of my water bottles down, I don't think I
59:31
Speaker 1: had anything left in and I don't think it was
59:32
Speaker 1: a spill. Sawyer Robertson. I think is his name right,
59:37
Speaker 1: Robinson Robertson, whatever the hell his name is. For Bailey,
59:39
Speaker 1: they brought him back. Kansas State looks like the worst
59:42
Speaker 1: of the two teams right now because they're two and
59:44
Speaker 1: three Baylor's three and two. This is on the road
59:47
Speaker 1: at Baylor as well. Kansas State's coming off that winever UCF.
59:51
Speaker 1: I think that's good because that kind of just gets
59:52
Speaker 1: Kansas State. It gets that monkey off their back, right
59:55
Speaker 1: because they didn't have any FBS wins yet, and I
59:57
Speaker 1: gave that was another play I gave out last week
59:59
Speaker 1: on the State, so that kind of got that monkey
1:00:02
Speaker 1: off Kansas State's back. I think it was a decent
1:00:05
Speaker 1: win for them against UCF, and they played well for
1:00:07
Speaker 1: once in a game against an FBS team, So I
1:00:10
Speaker 1: think that is actually helpful to Kansas State. So I
1:00:14
Speaker 1: think Kansas State is probably the way I would lead
1:00:16
Speaker 1: to this one. Baylor's down from six to five here,
1:00:19
Speaker 1: sixty six percent tickets, eighty four percent of the cash
1:00:21
Speaker 1: coming on Kansas State, the money coming in that way,
1:00:24
Speaker 1: and I still kind of prefer the better deepfense getting points,
1:00:26
Speaker 1: which I still think is Kansas State. I think both
1:00:29
Speaker 1: teams are kind of in sponsorere they should be focused here,
1:00:32
Speaker 1: So I think that kind of gets thrown out the
1:00:33
Speaker 1: window a little bit. So we'll see what happens there. Man,
1:00:37
Speaker 1: maybe Kansas State will come in and Waco Baylor in
1:00:42
Speaker 1: Baylor there. I mean, I've used that joke before, I think,
1:00:44
Speaker 1: but whatever. We do have Air Force in Navy. These
1:00:47
Speaker 1: are both noon games by the way. Interestingly, Kansas State
1:00:51
Speaker 1: and Baylor on ESPN plus whatever air Force and Navy
1:00:54
Speaker 1: on CBS. Uh So they get top billing there because
1:00:58
Speaker 1: it's one of the Armed forces man, because it's all
1:01:01
Speaker 1: that military money, you know what I mean. But it's
1:01:03
Speaker 1: a not the Armed Forces Bowl, that's one of the
1:01:06
Speaker 1: actual bulls that This is the Commander in Chief Trophy
1:01:09
Speaker 1: where all the armed forces play against each other. Of course,
1:01:12
Speaker 1: we know Army plays Navy at the very end of
1:01:14
Speaker 1: the season and air Force plays each of them earlier
1:01:18
Speaker 1: in the season, but this is I believe the first
1:01:21
Speaker 1: one of those matchups this season air Force and Navy here.
1:01:24
Speaker 1: Air Force is definitely the least of the three this season. Navy,
1:01:30
Speaker 1: I mean, they're probably not as good as they were
1:01:31
Speaker 1: last year. And I do think these Armed forces armed.
1:01:35
Speaker 1: Do you think these military academies are taking a step
1:01:38
Speaker 1: down here because they can't use the nil or the
1:01:41
Speaker 1: transfer portal? So will Donald Donald Trunk? Will he be there?
1:01:47
Speaker 1: Is that what he calls himself to get people to
1:01:49
Speaker 1: stop saying that he has a micro penis? I don't know.
1:01:53
Speaker 1: I doubt the Trump will be at this game. But
1:01:54
Speaker 1: who knows, Man, maybe I don't know. This is not
1:01:58
Speaker 1: one of This is not Army Navy, though this is
1:02:00
Speaker 1: Air Force Navy. Nobody really gives a shit about Air Force.
1:02:03
Speaker 1: Space Force needs a team, by the way, where's that?
1:02:06
Speaker 1: Where's the Space Force Academy? Where's their football team? Man?
1:02:09
Speaker 2: Uh?
1:02:11
Speaker 1: But we know because this is an armed uh, this
1:02:14
Speaker 1: is a game between the two armed forces. We know
1:02:15
Speaker 1: that it's gonna be a lot of triple option. It's
1:02:17
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of running, even though Navy does
1:02:20
Speaker 1: pass it a little bit more. If they still are
1:02:22
Speaker 1: running that wing tee offense that they started implementing last
1:02:25
Speaker 1: year with I believe their new coach there, And if
1:02:28
Speaker 1: they are, that probably is bad for Air Force because
1:02:31
Speaker 1: Air Force their defense has been pretty bad, man, Their
1:02:34
Speaker 1: defense has not been good against the pass. They gave
1:02:36
Speaker 1: up a lot of points to all of their FBS opponents,
1:02:39
Speaker 1: and they have no wins against FBS opponents. Against Utah State,
1:02:43
Speaker 1: Boisey and we know boys that can light it up,
1:02:45
Speaker 1: Hawaii can throw the ball as well. Utah State has
1:02:48
Speaker 1: been pretty good offensively so far as well. But all
1:02:51
Speaker 1: three of those teams put up at least forty points
1:02:53
Speaker 1: against air Force. So air Force, their offense, their defense
1:02:57
Speaker 1: has been struggling. Man, their offense has been okay, their
1:02:59
Speaker 1: defense this has been awful. I think Navy does have
1:03:02
Speaker 1: the better defense, and Navy has played the more difficult
1:03:05
Speaker 1: schedule of the two. But I mean it's kind of
1:03:07
Speaker 1: obvious anyway. Navy's four and zero. Actually, excuse me, Navy
1:03:11
Speaker 1: has not played the more difficult schedule. Excuse me. I
1:03:13
Speaker 1: mean at least air Force played Bois. Navy hasn't played
1:03:16
Speaker 1: anybody yet, excuse me, so they haven't really been tested yet.
1:03:18
Speaker 1: Their best opponent was I guess probably UAB. I mean
1:03:22
Speaker 1: that's not very good that they played Tulsa on the
1:03:24
Speaker 1: road too. I don't know, man, but Navy is still
1:03:27
Speaker 1: the better team. Air Force their defense could struggle potentially
1:03:30
Speaker 1: a little bit more here, even though we know Navy's
1:03:34
Speaker 1: not really gonna pass the ball that much here. The
1:03:36
Speaker 1: total in this game, I know people have been talking about,
1:03:38
Speaker 1: like why is this total so high for an Armed
1:03:40
Speaker 1: Forces game? Because usually it's almost automatic, Like it used
1:03:44
Speaker 1: to be almost automatic to take the under in these
1:03:47
Speaker 1: Service Academy games, because we know they just run the football.
1:03:51
Speaker 1: The totals up from fifty to fifty one and a half, which, again,
1:03:54
Speaker 1: if you like the under, fifty one and a half
1:03:56
Speaker 1: is a key number, man, fifty is a fifty one,
1:03:58
Speaker 1: excuse me, is a key number. And the money is
1:04:01
Speaker 1: coming in on the under a little bit, fifty two
1:04:02
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over fifty four percent
1:04:04
Speaker 1: of the cash on the under. I do think it
1:04:06
Speaker 1: will still be an under type of game. See, I
1:04:10
Speaker 1: think you're still gonna see rushing here. And Navy's defense
1:04:12
Speaker 1: is actually not that bad. I might be able to
1:04:14
Speaker 1: slow air force down a little bit too, and again
1:04:17
Speaker 1: when you have armed forces. Part of the reason it's
1:04:19
Speaker 1: not just because the teams run the ball up, but
1:04:21
Speaker 1: part of the reason why the games tend to be
1:04:23
Speaker 1: low scoring is because both teams know how to defend
1:04:26
Speaker 1: against the triple option because they do it in practice
1:04:29
Speaker 1: all the time. Because the teams all run the triple
1:04:31
Speaker 1: option on offense, they know how to defend against it
1:04:34
Speaker 1: basically more than any other team does. And they play
1:04:36
Speaker 1: each other every year too, so they're some of the
1:04:39
Speaker 1: defenses that are the most use to defending against the
1:04:42
Speaker 1: triple option. So that's also a reason why the teams
1:04:45
Speaker 1: are very familiar with each other, and they also kind
1:04:47
Speaker 1: of come in don't want to make mistakes. They're disciplined,
1:04:50
Speaker 1: so you also tend to not have these like ridiculous
1:04:53
Speaker 1: turnovers in those games that wind up leading to points.
1:04:56
Speaker 1: Navy is a big favorite as well, from nine and
1:04:58
Speaker 1: a half to thirteen and a half now, so if
1:04:59
Speaker 1: you like Navy, you kind of missed the boat on
1:05:02
Speaker 1: that one. Uh, seventy take is ninety one percent of
1:05:06
Speaker 1: the cash on Navy, So the money is coming in
1:05:08
Speaker 1: on Navy, even though they're on the public side. I
1:05:10
Speaker 1: think probably even at the thirteen and a half, I
1:05:13
Speaker 1: think probably if you're gonna play the side, the only
1:05:15
Speaker 1: way to do it is really probably just still lay
1:05:17
Speaker 1: the points with Navy. But they haven't really played anybody yet. Uh,
1:05:20
Speaker 1: the under may be worth a look in that game.
1:05:23
Speaker 1: You call them trunk all the time? Yeah, Oh, some
1:05:28
Speaker 1: black lady called them trunk during the pandemic. I might
1:05:30
Speaker 1: have seen that. I don't really remember, though. What else
1:05:33
Speaker 1: do we have here for these games here? Wake Forest
1:05:35
Speaker 1: of Virginia Tech is actually an interesting game that I'm
1:05:38
Speaker 1: gonna point out. Yeah, the Splasher, it was like dropping
1:05:42
Speaker 1: a turd in the toilet Bowl there. That's how bad
1:05:45
Speaker 1: that joke was. Virginia Tech. I mean, we know what
1:05:49
Speaker 1: they did last week. I told you, man, Virginia Tech.
1:05:51
Speaker 1: They fired their coach after the first three losses, even
1:05:54
Speaker 1: though they lost to pretty solid teams really except I
1:05:56
Speaker 1: know South Carolina is not that good, but it's still
1:05:59
Speaker 1: an SEC team, and they lost to Vandy. We know
1:06:01
Speaker 1: Vandy's been pretty good. Old Dominion Vandy's been more than
1:06:04
Speaker 1: pretty good and old and they're an SEC team too.
1:06:07
Speaker 1: Old Dominions actually not that bad either. So Virginia Tech, yeah,
1:06:10
Speaker 1: they lost those games, they fired their coach and it
1:06:12
Speaker 1: kind of sparked them. They were able to get the
1:06:14
Speaker 1: monkey off their back by beating Wafford, an FCS team,
1:06:17
Speaker 1: and then last week, I told you Virginia Tech. One
1:06:19
Speaker 1: of you guys bet on Virginia Tech last week, right,
1:06:22
Speaker 1: and I told you I agreed with it. Virginia Tech
1:06:23
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half won the game out right,
1:06:26
Speaker 1: twenty three to twenty one against NC State. But this
1:06:30
Speaker 1: could be a bad spot now for Virginia Tech because
1:06:32
Speaker 1: they just pulled off that upset against NC State. I
1:06:34
Speaker 1: know this is going to be a home game here,
1:06:37
Speaker 1: and it is their first home ACC game. It's against
1:06:40
Speaker 1: Wake Forest, who tends to be kind of a dorm
1:06:42
Speaker 1: at in the ACC. And next week Virginia Tech does
1:06:45
Speaker 1: have to face the other Tech, Georgia Tech, the other
1:06:49
Speaker 1: Tech in the AEC. So it looks like a bit
1:06:51
Speaker 1: of a sandwich spot here, man. For Virginia Tech. The
1:06:53
Speaker 1: only thing that might keep them focused maybe is that
1:06:56
Speaker 1: the spark with the new coach maybe will continue a
1:06:58
Speaker 1: little bit and it is still there ACC home opener,
1:07:01
Speaker 1: But it's a bad spot for Virginia Tech. Problem is,
1:07:04
Speaker 1: I think it's also a bad spot for Wake Forest.
1:07:07
Speaker 1: And Wake Forest, I mean, yeah, they're probably more likely
1:07:09
Speaker 1: to get up for this game because they you know,
1:07:12
Speaker 1: they get to go to Virginia Tech. It's a big
1:07:14
Speaker 1: game playing one of these big name teams in the
1:07:16
Speaker 1: in the ACC, Virginia Tech, you know, a story program
1:07:20
Speaker 1: and whatever. But Wake Forest it's their first road game
1:07:23
Speaker 1: of the season, So I don't really want to play
1:07:24
Speaker 1: them in that spot when they haven't played on the
1:07:26
Speaker 1: road yet. Nor do I want to play them when
1:07:28
Speaker 1: they're coming off a game against Georgia Tech where they
1:07:30
Speaker 1: almost won the game. This is crazy, man, They took
1:07:33
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech into overtime last week. I think it was
1:07:37
Speaker 1: kind of a bad spot for Georgia Tech as well.
1:07:39
Speaker 1: Let me see real quick a Georgia Tech, No, not really.
1:07:43
Speaker 1: I mean I thought they were coming off the Clemson game,
1:07:45
Speaker 1: but they actually beat Temple in between the two, so
1:07:48
Speaker 1: it wasn't exactly a terrible spot for Georgia Tech. But
1:07:50
Speaker 1: wake Forest played well in this game Man, and they
1:07:53
Speaker 1: were an eleven and a half point underdog when the
1:07:55
Speaker 1: game went off. The money came in on them and
1:07:57
Speaker 1: wake Forest they had the lead in this game, Man,
1:08:00
Speaker 1: were winning by double digits. They're winning twenty to three
1:08:02
Speaker 1: in the third quarter. So wake Forest had Georgia Tech
1:08:05
Speaker 1: completely on the ropes. They blew the game late. They
1:08:08
Speaker 1: retook the lead with five minutes left, and then they
1:08:11
Speaker 1: allowed the tying field goal in the final seconds, went
1:08:14
Speaker 1: into overtime, and then they lost the game in overtime,
1:08:17
Speaker 1: and they tried to get the win with a two
1:08:18
Speaker 1: point conversion. They tried to go for it right then
1:08:21
Speaker 1: in overtime and they lost the game by one to
1:08:24
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech. That is a brutal way to lose. So
1:08:26
Speaker 1: it's a terrible spot for wake Forest coming into this game. Too, man,
1:08:30
Speaker 1: So I just can't do it. I can't play either team.
1:08:32
Speaker 1: They're both in bad spots. Because I saw that for
1:08:34
Speaker 1: wake Forest, I was like, holy crap, I want to
1:08:36
Speaker 1: go against wake Forest here, but I don't think you
1:08:39
Speaker 1: can because Virginia Tech's also in a bad spot and
1:08:41
Speaker 1: we do see the common opponent two. As we know,
1:08:44
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech went into NC State and beat them last
1:08:47
Speaker 1: week in NC State beat Wake Forests as well, So
1:08:51
Speaker 1: the transit of property is gonna get applied here by
1:08:53
Speaker 1: the public betters here. They're gonna say, well, that means
1:08:55
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech should win easily, right, because Virginia Tech, I
1:09:00
Speaker 1: mean they were able to beat NC State and NC
1:09:03
Speaker 1: State beat beat wake Forest here, so it's like it
1:09:08
Speaker 1: should be easy, right, Virginia Tech should win this game easily.
1:09:11
Speaker 1: I'm they're only six point favorite here. They're up from
1:09:13
Speaker 1: five and a half to six. But the money is
1:09:15
Speaker 1: actually agreen with the Virginia Tech side here, fifty tickets,
1:09:18
Speaker 1: sixty four percent of the cash coming out of Virginia Tech.
1:09:20
Speaker 1: The money is actually coming into Virginia Tech. It's a
1:09:24
Speaker 1: difficult game to figure out, man, I mean, I could
1:09:26
Speaker 1: definitely see an over because both deepfenses could be a
1:09:29
Speaker 1: little bit tired after what we saw last week and
1:09:32
Speaker 1: maybe not totally focused, and when a team lacks focus,
1:09:35
Speaker 1: it tends to affect the deepfense. So I think an
1:09:37
Speaker 1: over maybe it is worth a look here, but I
1:09:39
Speaker 1: don't do a lot of totals in the In college football,
1:09:42
Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of tickets and cash all in the
1:09:45
Speaker 1: over here total to go up from fifty to fifty one.
1:09:47
Speaker 1: So if you do like the over key number of
1:09:50
Speaker 1: fifty one, you got to make sure you get over
1:09:51
Speaker 1: that at least and not have to go over fifty
1:09:55
Speaker 1: one and a half. The money is slightly coming out
1:09:57
Speaker 1: of Virginia Tech, and I could see the argument of
1:09:59
Speaker 1: the wake Forest off of the way they lost that
1:10:01
Speaker 1: game and blew it against Georgia Tech. You could definitely
1:10:05
Speaker 1: argue that they're in the worst spot of the two
1:10:07
Speaker 1: against Virginia Tech. Here. I might not even disagree with
1:10:10
Speaker 1: that argument, So maybe I would actually slightly lead to
1:10:12
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech in that one, but it's not strong. I
1:10:15
Speaker 1: don't want to play either team in those spots. JC,
1:10:19
Speaker 1: what's up man, Thanks for hanging out. You're gonna DM
1:10:21
Speaker 1: me the video all right, it sounds good. Yes, OMG
1:10:25
Speaker 1: high to everybody. What else do we have left to
1:10:28
Speaker 1: talk about here besides my best bets? I mean, Washington
1:10:32
Speaker 1: Maryland is just kind of an interesting game. I've heard
1:10:34
Speaker 1: a lot of chatter about this game and some differing
1:10:37
Speaker 1: opinions on this game. Washington. They played a big game
1:10:40
Speaker 1: last week man against Ohio State, and you remember I
1:10:42
Speaker 1: said it. I thought it was a weird spot for
1:10:44
Speaker 1: Ohio State having to go out there. This Washington team
1:10:46
Speaker 1: has actually been pretty solid on both sides of the ball,
1:10:49
Speaker 1: but their offense just couldn't get anything going against Ohio
1:10:52
Speaker 1: State and they wound up losing and not covering twenty
1:10:54
Speaker 1: four to six. That was a big loss though for them.
1:10:57
Speaker 1: I mean, that was a big game for them. It
1:10:58
Speaker 1: was their first loss of the Sea and now they
1:11:02
Speaker 1: have to go out on the road. They didn't really
1:11:03
Speaker 1: play anybody prior to that. They played Colorado State U
1:11:06
Speaker 1: See Davis, an FCS team there in Washington State. I
1:11:09
Speaker 1: know it's a rivalry game or Washington State should step
1:11:12
Speaker 1: it up in that game, but Washington, yeah, I mean
1:11:14
Speaker 1: they hadn't really been totally tested. I think they did
1:11:17
Speaker 1: okay against Ohio State. There. I mean, they only allowed
1:11:19
Speaker 1: twenty four points, which isn't too bad. But after that
1:11:22
Speaker 1: big game, the first loss of the season, now they
1:11:24
Speaker 1: have to travel all the way to the East Coast
1:11:26
Speaker 1: for the first time this year. I know it's not
1:11:28
Speaker 1: the early start time, which is a little bit worse.
1:11:30
Speaker 1: I guess if it was at noon, because they have
1:11:32
Speaker 1: to be playing really early with their on their biological
1:11:35
Speaker 1: clock time, which again I don't think is as bad
1:11:37
Speaker 1: as the late biological clock spot with the East Coast
1:11:40
Speaker 1: teams going out west, but Washington having not played outside
1:11:43
Speaker 1: of the Pacific time zone this year, that's a difficult
1:11:46
Speaker 1: spot in Washington being new to the Big Ten. Last year,
1:11:49
Speaker 1: they did not do well when they traveled east. I
1:11:51
Speaker 1: think they were owing three straight up. So I think
1:11:54
Speaker 1: they did not do well in these Eastern games here
1:11:57
Speaker 1: Man Maryland. Probably with Maryland is that I don't think
1:12:01
Speaker 1: they're in a good spot either. Maryland pulled off that
1:12:04
Speaker 1: upset against Wisconsin and then they went into a buy
1:12:06
Speaker 1: and they haven't lost a game yet. So I again
1:12:09
Speaker 1: I reiterate that when a team goes into a buy
1:12:11
Speaker 1: off of their biggest win, an upset win, in this
1:12:13
Speaker 1: case against Wisconsin, on the road for Maryland, and then
1:12:16
Speaker 1: they went to the buy and they haven't lost the
1:12:18
Speaker 1: game yet. It's not a good spot for them either, man.
1:12:22
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean, it's a It's another one of
1:12:24
Speaker 1: those games which I just thought i'd pointed out just
1:12:26
Speaker 1: how I handicapped these. It's a bad spot for both
1:12:29
Speaker 1: teams in this case. The money looks like it's coming
1:12:31
Speaker 1: in in the under though, seventy four percent tickets on
1:12:33
Speaker 1: the over, sixty two percent of the cash on the over.
1:12:36
Speaker 1: Total drop from fifty three and a half to fifty
1:12:37
Speaker 1: two and a half, So it doesn't look like a
1:12:39
Speaker 1: spot where you want to go over in this one.
1:12:40
Speaker 1: For whatever reason, not really sure the reasoning exactly. Washington
1:12:45
Speaker 1: is up from a five and a half to a
1:12:46
Speaker 1: six and a half point road favorite, though, and Maryland
1:12:49
Speaker 1: looks like an Maryland is a public home underdog, so
1:12:53
Speaker 1: that's really not a team you want to be on.
1:12:55
Speaker 1: Sixty one percent of tickets, fifty five percent of the
1:12:57
Speaker 1: cash on Maryland. Even though when I first looked this
1:13:00
Speaker 1: I thought it was a pretty bad spot for Washington,
1:13:02
Speaker 1: I kind of leaned towards Maryland, but with the market
1:13:06
Speaker 1: re looking like this, I think I kind of have
1:13:07
Speaker 1: to reconsider that and maybe actually lean towards Washington again
1:13:11
Speaker 1: if her professionals give out opinions on both sides of
1:13:14
Speaker 1: this game. But when you see a public home underdog
1:13:17
Speaker 1: like that, it's very rare and usually you do not
1:13:20
Speaker 1: want to be on that team. The public just thinking
1:13:23
Speaker 1: there's something there where there is and thinking there's value
1:13:25
Speaker 1: taking this undefeated Maryland team against Washington just because Washington
1:13:30
Speaker 1: has one loss. So the public not sold on this
1:13:32
Speaker 1: Washington team era. I don't know why they'd be sold
1:13:34
Speaker 1: on Maryland. Maryland is not a good team. I mean,
1:13:37
Speaker 1: the oddsmakers are obviously telling you Washington is a better
1:13:39
Speaker 1: team laying a price like this despite being on the
1:13:42
Speaker 1: road in an environment they're I'm familiar with. I mean,
1:13:46
Speaker 1: it looks like a spot for Washington should not be
1:13:49
Speaker 1: laying points like that against an undefeated team, but they are.
1:13:52
Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers again, they're telling you Maryland is really
1:13:55
Speaker 1: not to be trusted here. And I do think Maryland's
1:13:57
Speaker 1: offense does have some some weak points. I think they
1:14:00
Speaker 1: might have a new quarterback there. I forget what's really
1:14:02
Speaker 1: going on with them, But yeah, I mean Washington, the
1:14:07
Speaker 1: Oswegers are telling you Washington is actually kind of on
1:14:11
Speaker 1: the way back up after they kind of had a
1:14:12
Speaker 1: difficult season last year. I think they made a Bowl
1:14:15
Speaker 1: still last year, if I'm not mistaken, did they I forget?
1:14:18
Speaker 1: But after they were in the championship game the year
1:14:21
Speaker 1: before that, you know, they obviously took a step back
1:14:23
Speaker 1: losing Panics and o'doons and whatever. And I think they
1:14:27
Speaker 1: lost one other wide receiver to right, I forget, But yeah, Washington,
1:14:34
Speaker 1: they seem to be on the rise again. They are.
1:14:36
Speaker 1: Actually they're they're the better team than Maryland. So that's
1:14:38
Speaker 1: something to consider there as well. Tower Game for Life,
1:14:42
Speaker 1: Yet I wish we had it back man. Biological clocks, Yeah,
1:14:46
Speaker 1: cappers are. They're definitely tracking female athletes, that's true, the
1:14:51
Speaker 1: menstrual cycles. The men's SE's got to take that. And
1:14:54
Speaker 1: maybe I'm not taking that into account in my because
1:14:56
Speaker 1: I'm not taking it into account of my w NBA
1:15:00
Speaker 1: handicapping there. I'm just looking at the spots and whatever.
1:15:02
Speaker 1: So maybe I should be. But I'm still winning in
1:15:04
Speaker 1: the WNBA, so I don't know. Maybe i'd been winning
1:15:07
Speaker 1: hard or if I was taking that into account. Any
1:15:10
Speaker 1: other games that are interesting here, I don't know, man.
1:15:13
Speaker 1: I mean Oregon State app State is a kind of
1:15:16
Speaker 1: a weird game because Oregon State, I mean, they haven't
1:15:18
Speaker 1: won yet their own five, but they did lose to
1:15:20
Speaker 1: Texas Tech, Oregon Houston, I mean Cal. They haven't faced
1:15:24
Speaker 1: any FCS teams. They haven't had an easy schedule, that's
1:15:27
Speaker 1: for sure. I mean Cal's not that good, but still
1:15:30
Speaker 1: Oregon State facing a pretty difficult schedule here. Easiest opponent
1:15:34
Speaker 1: was Fresno and yes they lost that game too and home.
1:15:37
Speaker 1: But Oregon State's coming off that game where they they
1:15:40
Speaker 1: had a big game as I was on them last week,
1:15:43
Speaker 1: as you remember, they almost pulled off the huge double
1:15:45
Speaker 1: digit upsetting It's Houston, and now they have to travel
1:15:48
Speaker 1: to the Eastern time zone for the first time this year.
1:15:51
Speaker 1: The furthest east they went this year was to Texas
1:15:53
Speaker 1: Tech and they didn't do well in that game. They've
1:15:55
Speaker 1: been bad on the road so far. That was Texas
1:15:57
Speaker 1: Tech Oregon. I mean those are both really good teams.
1:16:01
Speaker 1: But Oregon State having to go out on the road there, yeah,
1:16:05
Speaker 1: I mean it's a weird, unfamiliar spot. They're unfamiliar venue
1:16:08
Speaker 1: for them. App State is two and two, So the
1:16:10
Speaker 1: public's probably gonna be on them too, though, because they're
1:16:13
Speaker 1: not gonna play on a team that has no wins.
1:16:16
Speaker 1: App State has not really been battle test as much
1:16:18
Speaker 1: yet though they lost this Southern Miss and Boise. Their
1:16:21
Speaker 1: only wins are against Charlotte, who's been pretty bad so far,
1:16:24
Speaker 1: and Lynden would only by seven and FCSD, and that's
1:16:28
Speaker 1: not a good sign for app State either. So I
1:16:30
Speaker 1: don't know that I love the app State side either.
1:16:32
Speaker 1: And they did have that weird travel spot out to
1:16:34
Speaker 1: Boise last week, which I thought they'd played better, but
1:16:37
Speaker 1: my hesitation with that was that it was a weird
1:16:39
Speaker 1: travel spot. They don't usually have to go out to
1:16:41
Speaker 1: the Mountain time zone like that, and now they're having
1:16:44
Speaker 1: to return home from that. But they might get up
1:16:47
Speaker 1: for it because it is a game against a former
1:16:48
Speaker 1: Pac twelve team in Oregon State, so it is one
1:16:51
Speaker 1: of the biggest name teams that they will they will
1:16:54
Speaker 1: be playing this season. But I still don't love it. Man.
1:16:58
Speaker 1: There are no buys coming into this either, but I
1:16:59
Speaker 1: heard opinions on app State in this one. They did
1:17:02
Speaker 1: go up from one to two on the line here
1:17:04
Speaker 1: sixty four percent to take a sixty five percent of
1:17:06
Speaker 1: the cash. Of course, the public is going to see
1:17:08
Speaker 1: this and it's picked the winner. You know, they're only
1:17:10
Speaker 1: going to pick the team that has wins versus the
1:17:12
Speaker 1: team that doesn't. But I hesitate with that because again
1:17:14
Speaker 1: at Oregon State has faced some more difficult schedule. But
1:17:18
Speaker 1: the scheduling spot is probably worse for Oregon State here,
1:17:21
Speaker 1: as I just pointed out, So sixty five percent of
1:17:24
Speaker 1: the cash on app states, the money is slightly coming
1:17:26
Speaker 1: out on an app state as well. That's a difficult one, man. SOB,
1:17:31
Speaker 1: what's up? You went four and oh? How many of
1:17:33
Speaker 1: how many of our plays overlapped? Man? I was six
1:17:36
Speaker 1: and I was five and one? Excuse me, I think right,
1:17:38
Speaker 1: five and one. I was three and one on Saturday
1:17:41
Speaker 1: and two and oh on Friday last week. So we
1:17:43
Speaker 1: both really really crushed it. I think I agreed with
1:17:46
Speaker 1: all four of your plays, if I remember correctly, and
1:17:47
Speaker 1: I think one of them was the same as one
1:17:49
Speaker 1: of mine. You're the one that had Virginia Tech, right.
1:17:52
Speaker 1: I pointed that out a little while ago when I
1:17:53
Speaker 1: talked about Virginia Tech. That was I agreed with it.
1:17:56
Speaker 1: I didn't give it out as a play, but that
1:17:58
Speaker 1: was a good one as well. Britney grind Or. You're right,
1:18:01
Speaker 1: you can't handicap Britney grind Or who is a man,
1:18:04
Speaker 1: so you can't do that same handicapping there. She's not
1:18:07
Speaker 1: in it anymore. She's on Atlanta. They're out, they're out
1:18:10
Speaker 1: of it. She I think she was on Phoenix. What's
1:18:13
Speaker 1: she on Phoenix at one point? Maybe she wasn't. I
1:18:15
Speaker 1: don't even remember she was on. Yeah, I think she was, right,
1:18:19
Speaker 1: I don't even remember, man. But you know, she had
1:18:21
Speaker 1: that thing where she got kidnapped by the Russian government
1:18:24
Speaker 1: and whatever, and then the US traded an arms dealer
1:18:27
Speaker 1: for her, which I'm like, why do we do that?
1:18:30
Speaker 1: We don't want Britney Grinder back. I'd rather I don't know. Well,
1:18:35
Speaker 1: I don't know, man. Maybe i'd rather have the arms
1:18:37
Speaker 1: dealer be in the US. I don't know, man, which
1:18:40
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start singing follow up boy if I keep
1:18:42
Speaker 1: saying arms.
1:18:43
Speaker 2: Dealer, Ah, yeah, I mean arms dealer.
1:18:49
Speaker 1: I'm trying to think of some parody that I can
1:18:51
Speaker 1: do up that with the Britney Grinder thing. I don't know,
1:18:58
Speaker 1: something I don't know. I'd have to think about.
1:19:02
Speaker 2: Being traded for Britney Grahianer.
1:19:08
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh you're on Oklahoma State. Yeah, that's right, we
1:19:10
Speaker 1: both had that one. I think I've done a you
1:19:15
Speaker 1: cover of that, the actual follow up boys song. Uh,
1:19:18
Speaker 1: this ain't a scene, it's an arms race. I think
1:19:21
Speaker 1: I have covered that. I don't know if it's still
1:19:22
Speaker 1: up on my Twitter though, because I delete a lot
1:19:24
Speaker 1: of shit. Any of these other games really matter? I mean,
1:19:28
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna be talking about many of these Mac games.
1:19:31
Speaker 1: Oh you want Michigan State and Nebraska, right, probably it's
1:19:34
Speaker 1: a big ten matchup. Whatever, let's do it, even though
1:19:36
Speaker 1: I have to talk about my best bets. Don't want
1:19:38
Speaker 1: this to be another two hour show man. But we're
1:19:40
Speaker 1: gonna get through this. We'll get through the rest of it.
1:19:42
Speaker 1: I mean, there aren't too many other games that I
1:19:43
Speaker 1: really want to talk about here. Uh, this one I'll
1:19:46
Speaker 1: talk about for Nate and Nate uh is he's gonna
1:19:51
Speaker 1: give me a like for this one. I think you're
1:19:55
Speaker 1: you're gonna do you want me to talk about the
1:19:57
Speaker 1: Arizona game. I forget what I even think about that game.
1:20:00
Speaker 1: You're laying the points of Arizona against who I don't
1:20:02
Speaker 1: even remember. I don't even know who the fuck they're playing.
1:20:05
Speaker 1: Michigan State at Nebraska. I'm not gonna do the best
1:20:07
Speaker 1: bet graphic yet because this is not I'm not onto
1:20:10
Speaker 1: the best bets yet, except I gave out Houston already,
1:20:13
Speaker 1: so Sab, you missed that. I already gave out Houston
1:20:15
Speaker 1: as the best bet. But I'll mention that again. But
1:20:17
Speaker 1: you have to go back for the analysis. Michigan State
1:20:20
Speaker 1: at Nebraska. Nebraska's coming out of a bye. They did
1:20:24
Speaker 1: have their first loss though going into the bye, so
1:20:27
Speaker 1: I could see that by going both ways, right, Because
1:20:30
Speaker 1: sometimes when you have a big loss like that against
1:20:31
Speaker 1: a good team, which was the best team Nebraska faced
1:20:34
Speaker 1: so far, Michigan, sometimes you come out of that and
1:20:39
Speaker 1: maybe you're still a little bit hungover coming out of that,
1:20:41
Speaker 1: by man, because that was a big game, even though
1:20:44
Speaker 1: it was a loss. It's possible that you don't really
1:20:47
Speaker 1: use that buy like to really refocus, because like, you
1:20:50
Speaker 1: don't really consider that to be a bad performance when
1:20:52
Speaker 1: you lose a close game to Michigan, right, and they
1:20:55
Speaker 1: got Michigan State here. I mean, I don't know if
1:20:57
Speaker 1: you're gonna spend an entire buy preparing for a Michigan
1:20:59
Speaker 1: State team that's down. Although Nebraska doesn't really have any
1:21:02
Speaker 1: big game up Mexicanst. Maryland. Maryland we know is not good.
1:21:05
Speaker 1: As I just pointed out Michigan State, though they're in
1:21:08
Speaker 1: the same situation. They had a bye last week too,
1:21:11
Speaker 1: and they went into it with their first loss, and
1:21:13
Speaker 1: they played pretty respectably on the road at USA, they
1:21:16
Speaker 1: covered I think, and lost that game. So these teams
1:21:19
Speaker 1: are both like basically in the same spot, which is
1:21:22
Speaker 1: pretty weird really. They're both in a similar spot there.
1:21:26
Speaker 1: So then it kind of just comes down to which
1:21:28
Speaker 1: of these teams is gonna use the bye better basically
1:21:31
Speaker 1: when the by kind of comes at the same point
1:21:34
Speaker 1: in the season in a very similar spot where they
1:21:36
Speaker 1: might use that buy, they might still be hung over
1:21:38
Speaker 1: coming out of that buy. But Nebraska is the better
1:21:42
Speaker 1: of these two teams. So that's probably the way you
1:21:44
Speaker 1: got to look here as far as this is concerned,
1:21:46
Speaker 1: just because I think that's what it comes down to.
1:21:48
Speaker 1: It comes down to these two teams being in a
1:21:50
Speaker 1: similar spot. I think it comes down to the better
1:21:52
Speaker 1: side here, and the public is gonna look at this
1:21:54
Speaker 1: and I don't think they're gonna want to lay points
1:21:56
Speaker 1: like this with Nebraska, and I know it is difficult
1:21:59
Speaker 1: to do because is a defensive team. I know I'm
1:22:02
Speaker 1: gonna throw a little bit of shade here. I'm gonna
1:22:05
Speaker 1: throw a little bit of shade here. Oh of Nate,
1:22:08
Speaker 1: not finished with research? You like UNLV? I do not
1:22:10
Speaker 1: at all. I could talk about that game too if
1:22:13
Speaker 1: you want. If you're throwing out the games here, uh,
1:22:17
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State against Arizona, I don't have I don't have
1:22:22
Speaker 1: a good I don't really have an opinion on that
1:22:24
Speaker 1: game one way or the other. Really, I'm gonna look
1:22:26
Speaker 1: at it again. I looked at it earlier and I
1:22:28
Speaker 1: didn't really see much of anything. But in this game,
1:22:30
Speaker 1: the total is low because Nebraska is a good defense,
1:22:32
Speaker 1: I'm gonna throw a little bit of shade. I thought
1:22:34
Speaker 1: Nate was saying he was gonna wait until I was
1:22:36
Speaker 1: done with my analysis here, before he decides whether to
1:22:38
Speaker 1: like my video or not. My only shade is that
1:22:42
Speaker 1: Dylan Rayola is still the Mahomes wanna be. And I
1:22:45
Speaker 1: still don't trust Nebraska's offense. Their defense is definitely good.
1:22:49
Speaker 1: The total is plummeted, though, from fifty four to forty
1:22:52
Speaker 1: nine in this one, sixty six per ticket, sixty nine
1:22:54
Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over, though some money
1:22:57
Speaker 1: maybe coming back a little bit on the over, maybe
1:22:59
Speaker 1: some lifting opinions on the total in that one, just
1:23:03
Speaker 1: maybe some buyback on the over because the total drops
1:23:05
Speaker 1: so much. But it's not expected to be a high
1:23:07
Speaker 1: scoring game, so that's kind of the problem with laying points.
1:23:10
Speaker 1: With Nebraska, they're out from eleven and a half to
1:23:12
Speaker 1: twelve seventy percent ticket seventy two percent of the cash
1:23:15
Speaker 1: on them. I would probably still lean that way they'll
1:23:18
Speaker 1: make because Michigan State is still kind of rebuilding. I know,
1:23:21
Speaker 1: they basically have a second they're in the second year
1:23:24
Speaker 1: with their new coach that they brought over from Oregon State,
1:23:26
Speaker 1: and usually the team doesn't fully coalesce until the third
1:23:29
Speaker 1: season with that coach. But he did bring over his guys,
1:23:32
Speaker 1: like he brought over Chiles and a couple other guys
1:23:34
Speaker 1: from Oregon State, so it's not like a full rebuild
1:23:37
Speaker 1: for Michigan State. So those guys could kind of hit
1:23:39
Speaker 1: the ground running, but they're still not as good of
1:23:42
Speaker 1: a team as Nebraska, and I think looking at that,
1:23:44
Speaker 1: the public kind of still looks at these teams. It
1:23:46
Speaker 1: kind of thinks they're both decent Big ten teams, and
1:23:49
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna look at that number. I think
1:23:50
Speaker 1: it's maybe a little bit high. Although the public is
1:23:53
Speaker 1: coming in on Nebraska anyway, but it looks like more
1:23:56
Speaker 1: of the money is coming in on that side, so
1:23:57
Speaker 1: I will slightly lean to Nebraska. Florida Gators. No, I
1:24:02
Speaker 1: gave it out as a lean though. That was probably
1:24:06
Speaker 1: like my it was like the fourth or fifth one
1:24:10
Speaker 1: away from from being from making my card. Here. The
1:24:14
Speaker 1: ones that were the closest that are not going to
1:24:16
Speaker 1: be plays for me are Kentucky, U C. L A. Oh,
1:24:20
Speaker 1: and actually and then Florida. I guess Florida was third.
1:24:22
Speaker 1: I guess, so those those are the ones. So I
1:24:24
Speaker 1: do agree with you on Florida though, but I'm not
1:24:26
Speaker 1: gonna I'm not gonna give it out as a play,
1:24:29
Speaker 1: but I don't disagree with it. Number twenty eight for
1:24:34
Speaker 1: Darren Woodson. Yeah, I mean I've not played anything besides
1:24:39
Speaker 1: Little league and Little League baseball and intramural well in
1:24:42
Speaker 1: T ball as well back in the day, and then
1:24:44
Speaker 1: intramural basketball in college, which I coached as well as played,
1:24:48
Speaker 1: and we didn't really have numbers. We just kind of wore.
1:24:51
Speaker 1: We just wore our own shit, basically. You know, it
1:24:54
Speaker 1: was a lackluster league. Did I skip over to the
1:24:59
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State one? Should I go back to where the
1:25:01
Speaker 1: hell was that game? Or is it a late night
1:25:03
Speaker 1: game or later in the day? I should say, is
1:25:05
Speaker 1: it a night game? Where the hell is that game?
1:25:07
Speaker 1: Because I was on the four pm games? There I
1:25:10
Speaker 1: see UNLV. Yeah, where the fuck is the Arizona game? Man?
1:25:14
Speaker 1: Why don't I see it? It's not an afternoon game, right,
1:25:18
Speaker 1: What are we looking at here? Oh? There it is.
1:25:20
Speaker 1: It's three pm. It is afternoon, all right, fine, Oklahoma
1:25:22
Speaker 1: State Arizona. I know Arizona loss last week against Iowa State,
1:25:26
Speaker 1: which I thought they would put in a better performance.
1:25:28
Speaker 1: It was their first loss. So I talk about this
1:25:30
Speaker 1: when you have a game that you at least kind
1:25:32
Speaker 1: of get up for emotionally. It's a big game for
1:25:35
Speaker 1: you and it's your first loss of the season. You
1:25:38
Speaker 1: take the first loss of the season. Sometimes that's not
1:25:41
Speaker 1: a good spot, man, because it can kind of hang
1:25:44
Speaker 1: you over a little bit. In Arizona does play BYU next,
1:25:47
Speaker 1: So this game is sandwiched in between two ranked teams,
1:25:50
Speaker 1: even though I know they didn't play well against Iowa State,
1:25:52
Speaker 1: I don't know that this is really a bounce back
1:25:55
Speaker 1: spot here. I think they could be hung over. I mean,
1:25:57
Speaker 1: this is the game that means the least in the
1:26:00
Speaker 1: span of four or five games, really, even with Houston
1:26:03
Speaker 1: undefeated right now too, so I think they might overlook
1:26:06
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. So I would not agree with laying the
1:26:08
Speaker 1: points of Arizona here. I know Oklahoma State did cover
1:26:12
Speaker 1: for us against Baylor, but it's not like they had
1:26:14
Speaker 1: a game that was close. Like if they almost upset Baylor,
1:26:17
Speaker 1: I would change my tune and I would say Oklahoma
1:26:20
Speaker 1: State's in a really bad spot. But I don't think so.
1:26:23
Speaker 1: I mean, they'll still lost by eighteen to Baylor. They
1:26:25
Speaker 1: almost didn't cover that number either. They weren't close to
1:26:27
Speaker 1: winning the game at all. But I think you might
1:26:30
Speaker 1: just be seeing kind of incremental improvement from Oklahoma State.
1:26:33
Speaker 1: Or they got the new coach there. I think that
1:26:35
Speaker 1: will continue to cause them to be focused a little bit.
1:26:38
Speaker 1: So No, I actually I would lean to Oklahoma State
1:26:41
Speaker 1: in this game. The total, I mean, excuse me, not
1:26:43
Speaker 1: the total. The number might actually hit twenty one. It's
1:26:46
Speaker 1: up from twenty to twenty and a half. Maybe you'll
1:26:49
Speaker 1: see a twenty one by the time the game kicks off.
1:26:52
Speaker 1: So that would be the best number that you could
1:26:53
Speaker 1: possibly get on Oklahoma State. I would say eighty one
1:26:56
Speaker 1: percent of tickets sixty eight percent of cash on Arizona
1:26:59
Speaker 1: to Arizona is look. So again, the market read the
1:27:03
Speaker 1: market is agree with me on taking the points of
1:27:05
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State there. Again, if you get three touchdowns, that's
1:27:08
Speaker 1: the key number there, Although if you're gonna play it
1:27:10
Speaker 1: at this number, I would still lean to Oklahoma State
1:27:13
Speaker 1: plus the twenty and a half in that one. Not
1:27:16
Speaker 1: a play for me, though not really close to a
1:27:18
Speaker 1: play for me. Coaching a youth league, Yeah yeah, the
1:27:22
Speaker 1: moms could see that I'm actually not bad with kids.
1:27:26
Speaker 1: Yeah hell yeah. Yeah, they'd finally be able to see
1:27:29
Speaker 1: that even though I am autistic. But I think the
1:27:31
Speaker 1: fact that I'm autistic, but I have enough social skills.
1:27:34
Speaker 1: I kind of just talk to kids like they're adults
1:27:36
Speaker 1: basically in all like, like, dude, I play some of
1:27:39
Speaker 1: the same things a kids, but I'll still play like
1:27:41
Speaker 1: video games and fucking like board games and shit and whatever,
1:27:44
Speaker 1: like I'll do that with kids. Yeah, all right, and
1:27:47
Speaker 1: you know, I got a bunch of cousins. I'm the
1:27:49
Speaker 1: oldest of a lot of cousins on my mom's side,
1:27:51
Speaker 1: so I got younger cousins. So yeah, I mean, even
1:27:54
Speaker 1: though I'm childless, it's not like I've had no children
1:27:57
Speaker 1: to deal with. And I'm an older sibling as well.
1:28:00
Speaker 1: I was still really young when my sister was born,
1:28:03
Speaker 1: so I you know, but I'm still older than she is.
1:28:08
Speaker 1: Although she's way taller than I am. She quickly became tall.
1:28:11
Speaker 1: My dad's pretty tall, my sister's really tall. I got
1:28:14
Speaker 1: the short end of the stick. Literally, all right, UNLV Wyoming.
1:28:19
Speaker 1: I wasn't even going to talk about this game, but
1:28:20
Speaker 1: let's do it anyway. I do not like UNLV in
1:28:23
Speaker 1: this one. Wherever the fuck this game is, this is
1:28:26
Speaker 1: on CBS Sports. If you want to watch this shitty
1:28:29
Speaker 1: game between these Mountain West teams, UNLV. I know they're
1:28:33
Speaker 1: four and oh, so the public is only going to
1:28:34
Speaker 1: be on the four and oh team against the two
1:28:36
Speaker 1: and two team. UNLV's only layth three and a half points.
1:28:40
Speaker 1: I mean, it just looks way too easy to lay
1:28:42
Speaker 1: the points with UNLV in this game, so I would
1:28:44
Speaker 1: not do it. Fifty nine percent of tickets are on UNLV,
1:28:47
Speaker 1: but eighty three percent of the cash on Wyoming, so
1:28:50
Speaker 1: the money is coming in on Wyoming. And the total
1:28:52
Speaker 1: has crashed from fifty three down to forty eight and
1:28:55
Speaker 1: a half, so money initially drove that total way down.
1:28:58
Speaker 1: So it's also a low total, which means taking the
1:29:02
Speaker 1: points is worth more. Seventy eight percent of tickets on
1:29:05
Speaker 1: the under, but seventy six percent of the cash on
1:29:07
Speaker 1: the over. Some money coming back on the over at
1:29:10
Speaker 1: this point out and I don't really have a feel
1:29:11
Speaker 1: for the total here, but Wyoming's offense definitely stinks. But
1:29:15
Speaker 1: I just don't think UNLV is that good. I think
1:29:17
Speaker 1: they're still riding what we saw from them last year.
1:29:20
Speaker 1: I mean, there's still a Dan Mullen team here, and
1:29:23
Speaker 1: how good of a coach is he really? I think
1:29:25
Speaker 1: we still don't know because who have they beaten. I
1:29:27
Speaker 1: mean I already said this when I give out Miami
1:29:29
Speaker 1: Ohio a couple weeks ago, which should have been a
1:29:30
Speaker 1: win by the way, Miami Ohio had to lead that
1:29:33
Speaker 1: whole game and they fucking blew it and then missed
1:29:36
Speaker 1: by a half point. And yes, I should have just
1:29:38
Speaker 1: mentioned it in the middle of the week and given
1:29:40
Speaker 1: it out with a better number. I know we're gonna
1:29:41
Speaker 1: we're gonna be missing a little bit of a key
1:29:43
Speaker 1: number in one of my plays today too, So I
1:29:45
Speaker 1: know it is what it is, man, the lateness of
1:29:49
Speaker 1: these shows where we kind of wait a little bit
1:29:51
Speaker 1: too long for some information to come in. But I
1:29:53
Speaker 1: still like my plays. I'm gonna give up. But UNLV
1:29:55
Speaker 1: they haven't played anybody. They barely got by Idaho State
1:29:59
Speaker 1: in the first game against FCS Idaho State team I'm
1:30:02
Speaker 1: not sure is really even that great of an FCS team,
1:30:05
Speaker 1: And UNLV was a big favorite in that game and
1:30:07
Speaker 1: they barely won. Then they went on the road and
1:30:10
Speaker 1: they beat Sam Houston, and Sam Houston couldn't even win
1:30:13
Speaker 1: when they were a road favorite yesterday, So that's not
1:30:16
Speaker 1: looking very good at all. They beat UCLA at home.
1:30:19
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a big win for the program, but
1:30:22
Speaker 1: for UNLV's program, I guess. But UCLA they were so
1:30:26
Speaker 1: bad they fired their coach a week later, So how
1:30:29
Speaker 1: good does that win? I mean, not really. And then
1:30:32
Speaker 1: they beat Miami Ohio. Miami Ohio, I think only as
1:30:34
Speaker 1: one win. I mean, they've been playing pretty poorly, and
1:30:37
Speaker 1: I think it might be against an FCS team too,
1:30:39
Speaker 1: So Miami Ohio was not exactly good. They're not even
1:30:42
Speaker 1: good for a MAC team. I just thought the spot
1:30:45
Speaker 1: was really good for them last week. I don't like this.
1:30:48
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a second straight road game here, but
1:30:50
Speaker 1: I know UNLV does have a bye in between the two,
1:30:52
Speaker 1: and they are coming back to their own territory here.
1:30:54
Speaker 1: It's not like they're not used to playing at Wyoming.
1:30:56
Speaker 1: It's a conference game. It's their first conference game, so yeah,
1:31:00
Speaker 1: way they should show up for it. But they had
1:31:03
Speaker 1: a buy man. Again, I keep talking about this, it's
1:31:05
Speaker 1: a bye when a team's four and zero. It's kind
1:31:07
Speaker 1: of an inopportune buy because again, you don't really have
1:31:10
Speaker 1: that much to fix going into that buy because you've
1:31:12
Speaker 1: been winning. So I know the win wasn't that impressive
1:31:15
Speaker 1: against Miami Ohio, but still they actually covered still in
1:31:19
Speaker 1: the game, So I don't like it. Yeah, I don't
1:31:22
Speaker 1: like UNLV in that one. I do not Wyoming. I mean,
1:31:25
Speaker 1: they played two teams that are more difficult than anybody
1:31:28
Speaker 1: UNLV face. They lost to Utah and Colorado, right, so
1:31:32
Speaker 1: those two teams are both better than UNLV's best win
1:31:35
Speaker 1: being against UCLA. So yeah, Wyoming's faced the more difficult schedule.
1:31:40
Speaker 1: I mean, Utah is a solid team. Colorado not great,
1:31:43
Speaker 1: but it is still coach prime. I mean, they're still
1:31:45
Speaker 1: not horrendous. So yeah, I mean Wyoming. I know, Wyoming's
1:31:50
Speaker 1: offense is very disgusting. It's difficult to want to play
1:31:53
Speaker 1: on this Wyoming offense here, but I mean they've shown
1:31:56
Speaker 1: some balance at least in the last couple of games.
1:31:58
Speaker 1: They did get a They had a one hundred yard
1:32:00
Speaker 1: rusher in that game at Colorado at least, and they
1:32:02
Speaker 1: had to buy as well, so both teams had buys.
1:32:04
Speaker 1: But Wyoming went into the buy on a losing note,
1:32:08
Speaker 1: so they lost a couple of games going into the buy.
1:32:09
Speaker 1: And I talk about that too. The team gets to
1:32:11
Speaker 1: like turn things around coming out of the bye. So
1:32:14
Speaker 1: it's almost making me want to play Wyoming here. I
1:32:18
Speaker 1: won't do it, but yeah, I mean I would definitely
1:32:20
Speaker 1: lean to Wyoming in that one. You're gonna skip it, yeah,
1:32:24
Speaker 1: skip it? Yeah, bye bye bye. I you cover that
1:32:27
Speaker 1: that I think is pretty good. I think that one's
1:32:29
Speaker 1: still out there somewhere if you search for it.
1:32:33
Speaker 2: I want to see you out that don't bye bye bye.
1:32:38
Speaker 1: All right, what do we have left here to talk
1:32:42
Speaker 1: about besides my best bets? So I want to talk
1:32:43
Speaker 1: about any of these other games, not particularly I don't
1:32:47
Speaker 1: think there's anything else really to talk about. I mean,
1:32:50
Speaker 1: Duke against Cal I've heard some professionals talk about this one.
1:32:54
Speaker 1: Duke Kevin to go out to the West Coast for
1:32:56
Speaker 1: the first time this season. I mean, it's a little
1:32:58
Speaker 1: bit of a difficult spot having to go out there.
1:32:59
Speaker 1: For sure, They're coming off of satisfying win. I guess
1:33:03
Speaker 1: at the very least against Syracuse, so we know Syracuse
1:33:05
Speaker 1: isn't that good. Duke is gonna be playing Georgia Tech next.
1:33:09
Speaker 1: I think Duke might have a bye in between the
1:33:11
Speaker 1: two they do, so they're going into a bye, then
1:33:14
Speaker 1: they have Georgia Tech and then clems them. But it
1:33:16
Speaker 1: is still kind of a weird spot for Duke. Although
1:33:19
Speaker 1: I don't think Duke is really even I don't think
1:33:21
Speaker 1: they're quite as bad as the record looks at three
1:33:23
Speaker 1: and two, because we know I talk about that Illinois
1:33:25
Speaker 1: game they played where Duke basically lost the game because
1:33:28
Speaker 1: they had five turnovers in the game. So I don't
1:33:30
Speaker 1: think Illinois is good, which is gonna come up in
1:33:34
Speaker 1: one of my plays. I mean, Duke still does have
1:33:36
Speaker 1: mensa there. He's an experienced quarterback, and they did at
1:33:39
Speaker 1: least put up a lot of rushing in some of
1:33:41
Speaker 1: these games here as well, So I mean, Duke, I
1:33:43
Speaker 1: don't think they're really that bad, but it is still
1:33:46
Speaker 1: kind of a weird spot going out there. Cal is
1:33:49
Speaker 1: four and one. I do still think Duke is the
1:33:51
Speaker 1: better of the two teams though, so that kind of
1:33:53
Speaker 1: gives me some hesitation if you want to play Cal here.
1:33:55
Speaker 1: Cal hasn't really played anybody yet. I mean, they're best opponent.
1:34:00
Speaker 1: It was Minnesota on Minnesota is having to travel out
1:34:02
Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coasts a weird spot for them. Cal
1:34:05
Speaker 1: got the job done in that game, but I don't
1:34:07
Speaker 1: know how good Cal really is. I know they went
1:34:10
Speaker 1: on the road and I thought it was I thought
1:34:11
Speaker 1: BC should have been the play in that game, and
1:34:14
Speaker 1: BC lost the game right near the end. So yeah,
1:34:18
Speaker 1: Cal got to win there as an underdog, but they're
1:34:20
Speaker 1: having to travel back to the Pacific Coast from that too,
1:34:22
Speaker 1: although I know they're used to it because they've had
1:34:25
Speaker 1: to do that since they've been in the ACC they've
1:34:27
Speaker 1: had to make those trips, so the trip is a
1:34:29
Speaker 1: little bit weirder for Duke here. But Cal at four
1:34:34
Speaker 1: and one, people are gonna kind of look at that
1:34:35
Speaker 1: and think they're the better team over Duke, which I
1:34:37
Speaker 1: don't think they are, even though Duke is three and two.
1:34:40
Speaker 1: I think Duke is the better team, and the Ozigers
1:34:42
Speaker 1: are telling you that because Duke's the favorite. But the
1:34:44
Speaker 1: money is coming in on Col. Duke down from three
1:34:48
Speaker 1: and after three here sixty percent of tickets on Cal,
1:34:51
Speaker 1: so the public is somewhat on Cow, but seventy eight
1:34:54
Speaker 1: percent of the cash. The money is even more heavily
1:34:58
Speaker 1: on Cal here, so the money is coming in a CAL.
1:35:01
Speaker 1: I don't love it, though, I mean, I do think
1:35:03
Speaker 1: Duke is still the better team, but the Oswegers are
1:35:05
Speaker 1: telling you that, and it is a weird enough spot
1:35:07
Speaker 1: that maybe maybe the spot is a little bit worse
1:35:10
Speaker 1: for Duke because they do have to go out to
1:35:12
Speaker 1: an unfamiliar venue there, and it's one of those late
1:35:14
Speaker 1: night games that I talk about with the East Coast
1:35:16
Speaker 1: team having to go to the Pacific Coast, which they
1:35:19
Speaker 1: rarely do, when this is the first time they're doing that.
1:35:22
Speaker 1: Doing that this season. It's gonna be a late game
1:35:24
Speaker 1: on their biological clocks. So yeah, it's not exactly the
1:35:28
Speaker 1: best spot there for Duke, So maybe I would agree
1:35:32
Speaker 1: with the money. They're slightly in to lean to, a
1:35:37
Speaker 1: slight lean to. It's a very small Native American dwelling,
1:35:43
Speaker 1: but yeah, slightly into cal in that one. Let's go
1:35:48
Speaker 1: best bets, let's do it. Gotta get it done, man,
1:35:52
Speaker 1: this video is gonna want to be two fucking hours again,
1:35:54
Speaker 1: maybe not quite, but let's do it here. First one
1:35:56
Speaker 1: up is going to be well, I already gave you guys,
1:35:58
Speaker 1: Houston's even though that's the eight one I think to play,
1:36:02
Speaker 1: I decided to make it a play earlier in the show.
1:36:04
Speaker 1: You can go see my analysis on that. Houston plus
1:36:07
Speaker 1: the points eleven and a half. That's play one. Will
1:36:10
Speaker 1: really play four and it's my least favorite of the four.
1:36:14
Speaker 1: First one off, I said, we're losing a little bit
1:36:16
Speaker 1: of live value here, but I still think this is
1:36:17
Speaker 1: a play. Purdue plus nine and a half. This is
1:36:20
Speaker 1: gonna be a fade of Illinois. Illinois is ranked, Purdue
1:36:24
Speaker 1: is not produce sucks. We all know this, but the
1:36:27
Speaker 1: public's only gonna go one way on this, and they're
1:36:29
Speaker 1: gonna go with Illinois. Purdue is bad. I get it.
1:36:33
Speaker 1: I know we could have had ten earlier, which would
1:36:35
Speaker 1: have been better. I don't think you're gonna get that
1:36:37
Speaker 1: number back, though, so I still think nine and a
1:36:39
Speaker 1: half is good on this one, though I no, I
1:36:42
Speaker 1: would prefer to have ten, sure because it's the touchdown
1:36:45
Speaker 1: plus field goal, but we still get above a touchdown
1:36:47
Speaker 1: on this Fifty seven percent of tickets around Illinois, fifty
1:36:50
Speaker 1: six percent of the cash come be gonna Purdue. I
1:36:52
Speaker 1: think Illinois has been overvalued pretty much all season because
1:36:55
Speaker 1: they returned most of their team from last year. But
1:36:58
Speaker 1: when that team over for four last year, and I
1:37:00
Speaker 1: don't think they were really as good as they looked
1:37:02
Speaker 1: last year. How good is Illinois really? I don't think
1:37:06
Speaker 1: they're that good. Man in Illinois against Purdue. The last
1:37:09
Speaker 1: couple of years, they actually have not been very good.
1:37:11
Speaker 1: I know they're four and won this year, but I mean,
1:37:15
Speaker 1: what have they done so far? I mean they beat Duke. Yeah,
1:37:17
Speaker 1: they beat Duke on the road, but I told you
1:37:18
Speaker 1: Duke had five turnovers in the game. I think they
1:37:21
Speaker 1: outgained Illinois in the game. So that was a misleading
1:37:24
Speaker 1: game for Illinois. Then Illinois basically was completely outclassed by Indiana,
1:37:29
Speaker 1: and we saw Iowa played pretty well against Indiana last week.
1:37:32
Speaker 1: So that's not a good looking game that they just
1:37:34
Speaker 1: got absolutely wrecked by Indiana. Yes, Illinois, I was wrong
1:37:38
Speaker 1: about the game last week. Yes, Illinois did bounce back
1:37:41
Speaker 1: with a win there. And Illinois was a seven point
1:37:43
Speaker 1: underdog at home against USC in that one. And yeah,
1:37:46
Speaker 1: Illinois got the win to get to maintain their spot
1:37:50
Speaker 1: in the rankings there, and they knocked USC out of
1:37:52
Speaker 1: the rankings. But that's a big win. Man. They've now
1:37:54
Speaker 1: played two straight ranked opponents. They beat USC as an
1:37:57
Speaker 1: underdog in a close game, which again I thought USC
1:38:01
Speaker 1: was probably the right side in that game, and I
1:38:04
Speaker 1: was wrong. USC wasn't ever gonna cover that, but they
1:38:06
Speaker 1: almost won. Illinois won the game on a late field
1:38:10
Speaker 1: goal right at the end of the game. If we
1:38:12
Speaker 1: look at what happened in the game statistically, in the game, yeah,
1:38:16
Speaker 1: I mean it was close, it was closed on the scoreboard,
1:38:19
Speaker 1: it was close statistically, So there wasn't really any sort
1:38:21
Speaker 1: of outlier there as far as what happened in that
1:38:23
Speaker 1: game statistically. But if you look at what Illinois has
1:38:28
Speaker 1: done against So that was Illinois's best game for sure.
1:38:32
Speaker 1: But they're coming off of that and now they have
1:38:34
Speaker 1: to play Purdue and then next week they host Ohio State.
1:38:38
Speaker 1: So this is a sandwich spot man for Illinois. I mean,
1:38:40
Speaker 1: that is a huge game coming up next against Ohio State.
1:38:43
Speaker 1: I don't know they're gonna really be looking like really
1:38:46
Speaker 1: focusing on Purdue here. Man. Last year they beat Purdue,
1:38:49
Speaker 1: but it was an overtime game where they actually played
1:38:51
Speaker 1: like shit. Illinois did against Purdue last year. I just
1:38:54
Speaker 1: think Illinois is not that good, man. They were not
1:38:57
Speaker 1: impressive last year really, to be honest. I mean, they
1:38:59
Speaker 1: didn't face that difficult of a schedule. Some of their
1:39:02
Speaker 1: wins were misleading, Like I think that Nebraska one was.
1:39:05
Speaker 1: I think that Kansas one was. I think they were
1:39:07
Speaker 1: thriving on turnovers. Purdue put up forty nine points against
1:39:11
Speaker 1: Illinois last year, and man, and Illinois has a very
1:39:14
Speaker 1: similar team this year. It's a lot of the same
1:39:16
Speaker 1: guys and they had to go to overtime. They allowed
1:39:19
Speaker 1: forty nine to Purdue last year and beat them fifty
1:39:21
Speaker 1: to forty nine. And that was at Illinois too. So
1:39:26
Speaker 1: what do you think Illinois is going to do on
1:39:27
Speaker 1: the road here? I mean, I know it's kind of
1:39:30
Speaker 1: you can't really gauge that much from what happened last year,
1:39:32
Speaker 1: but still, I mean, I think Purdue is still gonna
1:39:35
Speaker 1: get up for this game because it's a game against
1:39:37
Speaker 1: Illinois who beat them last year. But Illinois did not
1:39:39
Speaker 1: play well there. And the last time Illinois went to
1:39:42
Speaker 1: Purdue was the previous year and it was with these
1:39:44
Speaker 1: guys still Altmeyer at least was still there, and that
1:39:46
Speaker 1: I know, he was a lot younger than two years ago.
1:39:49
Speaker 1: He's still Illinois quarterback now. But Illinois went to Purdue
1:39:52
Speaker 1: that year and they lost forty four to nineteen. So
1:39:56
Speaker 1: Illinois has not exactly been good against Purdue the last
1:39:58
Speaker 1: couple of years. And du do as far as what
1:40:01
Speaker 1: they've been doing this year, Yeah, they're two and two.
1:40:03
Speaker 1: They lost to USC, so we have a transitive property
1:40:06
Speaker 1: situation where Purdue loss and they actually didn't play that
1:40:10
Speaker 1: badly in the game. They lost thirty three to seventeen,
1:40:12
Speaker 1: and that's not that bad against USC, and I believe
1:40:17
Speaker 1: they might have covered to the cover in this one.
1:40:18
Speaker 1: Let me see, Yeah, twenty and a half point underdog,
1:40:20
Speaker 1: So Purdue is a twenty and a half point underdog.
1:40:23
Speaker 1: So you can look at that number two because Purdue
1:40:25
Speaker 1: is a twenty and al point underdog at home against USC,
1:40:28
Speaker 1: Illinois was a seven point underdog, so that basically says
1:40:31
Speaker 1: Illinois should be thirteen points better than Purdue here. So
1:40:36
Speaker 1: this line is about saying that basically, So you give
1:40:39
Speaker 1: Purdue like a few points for home. So the line
1:40:41
Speaker 1: isn't really that skewed at all based on those numbers.
1:40:44
Speaker 1: It's about where it should be. So there's no real
1:40:46
Speaker 1: lied value looking at those other games where the public
1:40:49
Speaker 1: is obviously going to see, Well, Purdue lost to USC
1:40:52
Speaker 1: by double digits. Illinois beat USC at home, so obviously
1:40:55
Speaker 1: Illinois should be able to win this game easily. Purdue
1:40:58
Speaker 1: will also lost to Notre Dame, and they put up
1:41:01
Speaker 1: thirty points against Notre Dame. So I don't know. I know,
1:41:03
Speaker 1: I talked about Notre Dame. Maybe their defense isn't that
1:41:06
Speaker 1: good this year, but maybe Purdue's offense is it as
1:41:09
Speaker 1: bad as maybe we think it is. I don't know, man,
1:41:11
Speaker 1: they put up thirty against Notre Dame. It's not that bad,
1:41:14
Speaker 1: and then they went into a bye so Purdue as
1:41:16
Speaker 1: a bye so I think they have a big advantage
1:41:19
Speaker 1: here because Illinois played last week and they pulled off
1:41:21
Speaker 1: a big upset last week, and they're in the sandwich spot,
1:41:24
Speaker 1: whereas Purdue didn't even play last week, so they had
1:41:26
Speaker 1: a buy to kind of recollect themselves and prepare for
1:41:29
Speaker 1: this game. They had an extra week off there, and
1:41:32
Speaker 1: they went into the buy on a bad note, losing twice.
1:41:35
Speaker 1: I know it was a big game against Notre Dame
1:41:37
Speaker 1: and they might have covered. I think they covered that number,
1:41:39
Speaker 1: but still it wasn't a very impressive performance. Did they cover?
1:41:43
Speaker 1: I think they did, right, Maybe they didn't. They lost
1:41:46
Speaker 1: by twenty six what was the number in this game? No,
1:41:51
Speaker 1: they didn't even cover. Notre Dame covered on the minus
1:41:53
Speaker 1: twenty four and a half. So yeah, I mean that
1:41:55
Speaker 1: makes it, yeah, even more of a game where I
1:41:58
Speaker 1: think Purdue they're gonna use the time off to try
1:42:00
Speaker 1: to fix some things that went wrong in those other games. Yeah,
1:42:05
Speaker 1: I mean, I think they've Uh, I don't know if
1:42:08
Speaker 1: I want to say they faced the more difficult schedule,
1:42:10
Speaker 1: but maybe because both teams face USC. Yeah, Illinois did
1:42:14
Speaker 1: face Duke in there, but Illinois played one more game
1:42:16
Speaker 1: so far, so I guess Illinois is a little bit
1:42:18
Speaker 1: more battle testing from that, but Notre Dames. I think
1:42:21
Speaker 1: the better team over on Indiana, despite what the rankies
1:42:24
Speaker 1: are telling you. So yeah, I mean Purdue. I mean
1:42:27
Speaker 1: they've been fairly battle tested as well. But overall, yeah,
1:42:30
Speaker 1: we're gonna play. We're gonna play purduing this one. Man.
1:42:33
Speaker 1: I think it's a good spot to do it. I
1:42:35
Speaker 1: think it lines up nicely for both teams best bets.
1:42:39
Speaker 1: That's right. Next up, So Purdue, I told you these
1:42:41
Speaker 1: are ugly. Man, you're not gonna like these. You might
1:42:44
Speaker 1: like my last one. Maybe next up you're gonna be thinking,
1:42:47
Speaker 1: what the fuck are you doing with this one. We're
1:42:49
Speaker 1: gonna lay the points with Louisville, and you know me,
1:42:51
Speaker 1: I'm on a lot of underdogs usually, but I'm on
1:42:54
Speaker 1: two favorites this time. One of them is Louisville minus
1:42:57
Speaker 1: six and a half. People are gonna look at this like,
1:42:59
Speaker 1: what is going on with this line? This is against Virginia,
1:43:02
Speaker 1: So I know I had Virginia last week and we're
1:43:05
Speaker 1: just gonna fade them. Mean, this is the nature of
1:43:07
Speaker 1: the game, man. You find a good spot to play
1:43:09
Speaker 1: on a team like Virginia and then they pull off
1:43:11
Speaker 1: that massive upset, double overtime upset, you gotta look to
1:43:16
Speaker 1: go against that team the next week. Man. So there
1:43:18
Speaker 1: are a lot of situations where you have you're gonna
1:43:21
Speaker 1: be on a team one week and against them the next,
1:43:23
Speaker 1: or vice versa. Things will flip flop, and you can
1:43:27
Speaker 1: kind of gauge like where the public is in both
1:43:29
Speaker 1: games too, which I think we're gonna see more like
1:43:31
Speaker 1: in the NFL this week. But the the public was
1:43:36
Speaker 1: totally against Virginia last week, right because they were on
1:43:39
Speaker 1: Florida State. But when the public was totally against them
1:43:42
Speaker 1: one week and they kind of just misjudged in one direction,
1:43:44
Speaker 1: the public overreacts to it and they come in I
1:43:47
Speaker 1: think the public is actually coming into the Virginia side
1:43:49
Speaker 1: here and the public overreacting like that, you know what
1:43:52
Speaker 1: I mean. It's kind of a gauge to use where
1:43:54
Speaker 1: it's like, well, why was the public so heavily against
1:43:57
Speaker 1: Virginia last week and then just based on that one outcome,
1:44:00
Speaker 1: now they're kind of going the opposite way here. Again,
1:44:03
Speaker 1: it's because they overreact and the reality lies somewhere in
1:44:06
Speaker 1: the middle. But yeah, people are gonna look at this
1:44:08
Speaker 1: and see a ranked Virginia team, even though I know
1:44:10
Speaker 1: the record is actually worse. Louisville is actually undefeated at
1:44:13
Speaker 1: four and oh, Virginia's four and one. But Virginia is
1:44:16
Speaker 1: ranked and they're getting almost a touchdown here. It's like, well,
1:44:19
Speaker 1: what gives? Right? Like the public's gonna see that and
1:44:21
Speaker 1: think it makes no sense and coming in, come in
1:44:26
Speaker 1: towards the Virginia side of the No, we do see
1:44:28
Speaker 1: fifty three percent of tickets on Louisville, so public isn't
1:44:31
Speaker 1: that heavily on Virginia, but still more of the cash
1:44:34
Speaker 1: is on Louisville. Though it looks like the recreational betters
1:44:37
Speaker 1: are somewhat evenly split on this one, and given that,
1:44:41
Speaker 1: I think a lot of professional betters are on the
1:44:43
Speaker 1: Louisville side here, and that's factory into that fifty three
1:44:45
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets too. I think the majority of
1:44:47
Speaker 1: the public tickets are indeed actually on the Virginia side,
1:44:50
Speaker 1: but we got sixty five percent of the cash on Louisville.
1:44:53
Speaker 1: They're sitting at the seven. I would probably still lay up,
1:44:56
Speaker 1: but I think you can get the six and a
1:44:57
Speaker 1: half out there right now. I don't know if you
1:44:59
Speaker 1: should really weight on it. I think you should, well,
1:45:01
Speaker 1: I mean, I guess you could, because I don't think
1:45:03
Speaker 1: it's gonna go to seven and a half. But I
1:45:05
Speaker 1: would try to find the six and a half obviously,
1:45:07
Speaker 1: because then if they win by exactly a touchdown, you
1:45:09
Speaker 1: win the bet. But I would still probably lay it
1:45:11
Speaker 1: at seven, even though I know it'll be a push
1:45:15
Speaker 1: if they win by seven. But I like it, Man, Virginia,
1:45:18
Speaker 1: when you see a field storming like that. It was
1:45:21
Speaker 1: the biggest field storming I think I've ever seen, because
1:45:23
Speaker 1: Virginia has that like hill there. That was a monumental
1:45:26
Speaker 1: win for their program. Man, Virginia, they never get to
1:45:29
Speaker 1: plan a primetime Friday night isolated game like that against
1:45:32
Speaker 1: a top ten ranked team, and they pulled off the
1:45:34
Speaker 1: upset in double overtime. I think they're gonna have nothing
1:45:38
Speaker 1: left coming out of the tank here. Man. I know
1:45:40
Speaker 1: they have an extra day off to prepare for this,
1:45:42
Speaker 1: but still, that's just such a ridiculous high emotional high,
1:45:46
Speaker 1: such a battle of that game. And then again, like
1:45:49
Speaker 1: the field storming, it's almost an automatic fade, Man, when
1:45:52
Speaker 1: you see its team's crowd storm the field or the
1:45:56
Speaker 1: court in basketball, it's like almost an auto fade for
1:45:58
Speaker 1: me the next week. And I think that's what we're
1:46:00
Speaker 1: gonna do here, man, And it's a situation. I like
1:46:03
Speaker 1: it better because the line is basically miss like it's
1:46:06
Speaker 1: like kind of a misleading looking line, right, because you
1:46:09
Speaker 1: see that Virginia is the better ranked team, yet there
1:46:12
Speaker 1: are a six and a half point underdog, and the
1:46:13
Speaker 1: question is why. Part of it is because of the spot.
1:46:17
Speaker 1: But again the odds is telling you Louisville is actually
1:46:20
Speaker 1: the better of these two teams here, despite what we
1:46:22
Speaker 1: saw Virginia do last week. So it's all of that
1:46:25
Speaker 1: coming into play here, man, kind of a rankings versus
1:46:28
Speaker 1: Odds maker disparity here plus a really bad spot for Virginia. Again,
1:46:32
Speaker 1: the the I can't like really overstate what that crowdstorming
1:46:36
Speaker 1: looked like the field storming last week. It was like
1:46:38
Speaker 1: a sea of bodies just filling the entire field. I
1:46:41
Speaker 1: think some people actually got injured. I don't think Squirrel
1:46:44
Speaker 1: White got injured though. It was the the secondary player
1:46:49
Speaker 1: on the last play there with that or the wide
1:46:51
Speaker 1: receiver excusely for Florida State on the last play where
1:46:53
Speaker 1: they were trying to score on the last play of
1:46:55
Speaker 1: the game to try to win the game. A squirrel White,
1:46:58
Speaker 1: I mean, it's such a ridiculous name and so many
1:47:00
Speaker 1: ridiculous names in football, man, but he basically got drowned
1:47:06
Speaker 1: by the crowd. The crowd was already running out onto
1:47:07
Speaker 1: the field. But just such a crazy field storm made man.
1:47:11
Speaker 1: Louisville that coming up with more lackluster performance. I know
1:47:14
Speaker 1: they haven't played anybody yet, so I know, for like
1:47:17
Speaker 1: you're looking at this in Virginia, they've actually played I
1:47:20
Speaker 1: guess a slightly more difficult schedule because they did play
1:47:23
Speaker 1: NC State on the road. But NC State doesn't look
1:47:25
Speaker 1: that great this year. Louisville, I know they haven't really
1:47:28
Speaker 1: played anybody yet. James Madison, they only beat them by
1:47:32
Speaker 1: fourteen at home. James Madison is actually not that bad
1:47:34
Speaker 1: of a team though, either one of those better like
1:47:36
Speaker 1: mid major teams. Louisville smoked Eastern Kentucky NFCS team and
1:47:41
Speaker 1: they beat Bowling Greed. I almost said Boise Green is
1:47:45
Speaker 1: gonna be the new one like Florida Illinois from last year. Man,
1:47:48
Speaker 1: that's the new misspeak of mine here. But Louisville beat
1:47:52
Speaker 1: Bowling Greed big time, and that was a game where
1:47:55
Speaker 1: I thought Bowling Green might try to step it up
1:47:57
Speaker 1: in that game, but Louisville just handled them. And Bowling
1:48:00
Speaker 1: is not like one of the worst s MAC teams
1:48:02
Speaker 1: really either. So Louisville's playing pretty well and they're actually
1:48:05
Speaker 1: good on both sides of the ball, which I like
1:48:06
Speaker 1: here too because Virginia I think they got a questionable defense.
1:48:09
Speaker 1: Man Like, obviously, Virginia could score, so the public's gonna
1:48:13
Speaker 1: kind of want to be on them for that reason too.
1:48:14
Speaker 1: Because Virginia's offense has been really good. It's been the
1:48:17
Speaker 1: better of these two offenses. But Louisville is the one
1:48:21
Speaker 1: of these teams that actually has a decent defense. So
1:48:24
Speaker 1: I think Louisville can slow down Virginia's offense because it's
1:48:27
Speaker 1: gonna be one of the better defenses that Virginia has
1:48:30
Speaker 1: seen so far. Although I know Florida State has some
1:48:33
Speaker 1: defensive ability too, but Louisville's defense I think is flying
1:48:36
Speaker 1: under the radar. And Louisville could score on offense too.
1:48:39
Speaker 1: They're a pretty balanced team, man coming into the season.
1:48:42
Speaker 1: A lot of like professional betters, we're talking about Louisville
1:48:45
Speaker 1: taking another step up this year and vying to win
1:48:48
Speaker 1: the ACC, which they could. That's still all in front
1:48:51
Speaker 1: of them right now, man, And like I said, they're
1:48:53
Speaker 1: coming off kind of a lackluster performance. So they went
1:48:56
Speaker 1: on the road to Pit last week, and Pit's not
1:48:58
Speaker 1: that good this year. Louisville was a three and a
1:49:00
Speaker 1: point favorite, so they did still cover, but they were
1:49:03
Speaker 1: losing the game by ten in the middle of the game, man,
1:49:07
Speaker 1: and they were still losing in the fourth quarter. They
1:49:09
Speaker 1: tied it in the fourth quarter and then won. They
1:49:11
Speaker 1: had a good fourth quarter late in the game. But
1:49:13
Speaker 1: I think Louisville, you know, it's kind of a it
1:49:15
Speaker 1: was a lackluster performance to them, I would say. So
1:49:18
Speaker 1: I think they are going to show up, especially now
1:49:19
Speaker 1: that Virginia has put everybody on notice about how good
1:49:22
Speaker 1: they are. So I think Louisville should be able to
1:49:25
Speaker 1: come into this game and do something. Louisville, they do
1:49:27
Speaker 1: have a Miller Moss, by the way, who was USC's
1:49:31
Speaker 1: quarterback last year, so he is a highly touted quarterback
1:49:34
Speaker 1: at least, and he is playing pretty well so far
1:49:36
Speaker 1: for Louisville. He played pretty well in this game, so
1:49:40
Speaker 1: that's something to consider. Louisville also beat Pitt on the
1:49:43
Speaker 1: statistical sheet here out, gaining them by a decent margin
1:49:47
Speaker 1: by whatever that is fifty something yard. It's not a
1:49:50
Speaker 1: huge margin, but something. Yes, I know Pitt did help
1:49:52
Speaker 1: them out with five turnovers, so yeah, Louisville probably should
1:49:56
Speaker 1: have won by more than seven when they were plus
1:49:58
Speaker 1: four and turnovers. But even so, man, I mean Louisville,
1:50:02
Speaker 1: I mean, they were the way better team in the
1:50:03
Speaker 1: clutch two on third down. I know that's a little
1:50:05
Speaker 1: bit of a fluke nine for nineteen and Pitt was
1:50:08
Speaker 1: only one for ten, but yeah, I mean, I'm not
1:50:10
Speaker 1: gonna be labored this, but I think it's a much
1:50:12
Speaker 1: much better spot for Louisville. And this is their home
1:50:15
Speaker 1: opener in the ACC, too, so the crowd's gonna be
1:50:17
Speaker 1: there for this one. It's on ESPN two in the afternoon.
1:50:21
Speaker 1: Louisville had a couple of spots like this last year.
1:50:23
Speaker 1: I think they had at least one spot like this
1:50:25
Speaker 1: last year where I laid the points with Louisville and
1:50:27
Speaker 1: it was a winner, I think against Pitt. Maybe when
1:50:30
Speaker 1: Pitt was coming off some big game and Pitt was
1:50:32
Speaker 1: a little bit over valued, So I'm going back to
1:50:35
Speaker 1: the well with this one. We're laying the points with
1:50:37
Speaker 1: Louisville in this one, and yeah, that's about it, man.
1:50:41
Speaker 1: I think it is actually a little bit of a
1:50:43
Speaker 1: bigger game for them right now. And then we're gonna
1:50:45
Speaker 1: finish this off with my other favorite. I know briefly
1:50:48
Speaker 1: there was a fourteen out there on this. The money
1:50:50
Speaker 1: has moved on this, We're still gonna lay the points
1:50:53
Speaker 1: with Texas A and M here at fifteen and a half.
1:50:55
Speaker 1: It's kind of in a dead number zone here once
1:50:58
Speaker 1: it gets to fourteen and a half or above. I
1:51:00
Speaker 1: know very briefly there was a fourteen out there, so
1:51:03
Speaker 1: probably I should have been able to give it out
1:51:04
Speaker 1: back then. It looks like it opened thirteen and a half,
1:51:06
Speaker 1: but I don't think I ever saw it at thirteen
1:51:07
Speaker 1: and a half. I think it very quickly just started
1:51:11
Speaker 1: moving up. It's already up to sixteen, although there's like
1:51:14
Speaker 1: not really a difference between fifteen and a half and sixteen,
1:51:17
Speaker 1: so I think it's still good to lay it in
1:51:19
Speaker 1: anything below seventeen here. I like Texas A and M
1:51:22
Speaker 1: and this SEC battlegainst. Mississippi State, the public kind of
1:51:25
Speaker 1: likes they see in Mississippi State so far, and I
1:51:27
Speaker 1: don't disagree Mississippi State, as I pointed out, they were
1:51:31
Speaker 1: without their quarterback for a large chunk of last year Slaton,
1:51:35
Speaker 1: and I think that's his name, and he is back
1:51:37
Speaker 1: this year. So Mississippi State is definitely playing better there.
1:51:40
Speaker 1: Their coach has been there longer, so they're playing better.
1:51:43
Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of the tickets are on Mississippi State here,
1:51:45
Speaker 1: but fifty one percent of the cash on A and M.
1:51:48
Speaker 1: We're going to lay it. I know we're getting a
1:51:49
Speaker 1: little bit less value here on both A and M
1:51:51
Speaker 1: and Purdue, but I still like it. Man, even at
1:51:54
Speaker 1: this number, I still think it's worthy. This is gonna
1:51:58
Speaker 1: be on the SEC network at night at seven thirty.
1:52:01
Speaker 1: Public again, they're looking at this and they like Mississippi
1:52:03
Speaker 1: State because they're four and one so far in Texas
1:52:05
Speaker 1: A and M andno, they're four and oh. But the
1:52:07
Speaker 1: public see double digits here and thinking that this is
1:52:11
Speaker 1: probably gonna be a close matchup, right, because it's an
1:52:13
Speaker 1: SEC matchup. But remember, Mississippi State was really bad last year,
1:52:17
Speaker 1: and how much is Mississippi State really improved this year? Sorry?
1:52:20
Speaker 1: Shape and not slate in shape, and I got that wrong.
1:52:24
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, Mississippi State has definitely improved. They have
1:52:26
Speaker 1: a balanced attack, they can run the ball, they play
1:52:29
Speaker 1: some decent defense, they can throw the ball. Their best
1:52:31
Speaker 1: wins so farther against Arizona State at home was a
1:52:35
Speaker 1: nice upset win for them, and then they that was
1:52:39
Speaker 1: their only good win really. Then they played Tennessee last week,
1:52:42
Speaker 1: and this is basically why I'm fading them, because yes,
1:52:44
Speaker 1: they did look good against Tennessee. They took Tennessee into overtime, man,
1:52:48
Speaker 1: But that's why I don't think they can put up
1:52:50
Speaker 1: the same effort here two weeks in a row. And
1:52:53
Speaker 1: it's also difficult because it's their first SEC road game
1:52:56
Speaker 1: of the season, very difficult in the environment going to
1:52:58
Speaker 1: College Station, and they're only other road games against Southern
1:53:01
Speaker 1: Miss this year. And I know that's an in state
1:53:03
Speaker 1: little brother. I know Southern Miss isn't that bad this year.
1:53:06
Speaker 1: They brought over all those guys from Marshall this year.
1:53:09
Speaker 1: But still, I think it's a difficult spot for Mississippi
1:53:12
Speaker 1: State here. Man. Their first road game since the opening
1:53:15
Speaker 1: week I think, which might have been actually in Week
1:53:17
Speaker 1: zero and they're coming off their first loss of the season.
1:53:22
Speaker 1: And again, I'm gonna talk about this. When a team
1:53:24
Speaker 1: has their first loss this late into the season and
1:53:26
Speaker 1: it's in a really emotional step up game like that,
1:53:30
Speaker 1: I think they just can't put in that effort the
1:53:31
Speaker 1: next game after that. So I think it's a bad
1:53:33
Speaker 1: spot for Mississippi State for that reason. I know they're
1:53:36
Speaker 1: gonna want to try to put in an effort here
1:53:38
Speaker 1: because Texas A and M is a highly ranked team,
1:53:40
Speaker 1: but Tennessee even kind of draws more of your attention
1:53:43
Speaker 1: just because their name is Tennessee and the fact that
1:53:46
Speaker 1: Mississippi State did that and played them as a seven
1:53:48
Speaker 1: a half point underdog into overtime, if you've got the
1:53:51
Speaker 1: seven and a half they covered for you in this game.
1:53:53
Speaker 1: But that was a game Misssippi State had the lead
1:53:55
Speaker 1: late in the fourth quarter, they gave up a late
1:53:58
Speaker 1: time touchdown, so they actually almost had win against Tennessee,
1:54:01
Speaker 1: and that Tennessee beat them in overtime. Just a brutal
1:54:05
Speaker 1: way to lose from Mississippi State, man and then have
1:54:08
Speaker 1: to go out on the road here Texas A and M.
1:54:10
Speaker 1: Whether or not you think they deserve being ranked six
1:54:12
Speaker 1: in the country, which I told you I thought they
1:54:14
Speaker 1: would contend for the SEC this year. I don't think
1:54:17
Speaker 1: they're the sixth best team. I think they're probably somewhere
1:54:20
Speaker 1: around tenth or so, to be honest, Ill, legitimately, they
1:54:24
Speaker 1: haven't lost yet, but they're not coming out of a bye.
1:54:26
Speaker 1: They actually went into the by prior to last week
1:54:29
Speaker 1: after the Notre Dame win, and I struggled to figure
1:54:34
Speaker 1: this game out last week with Texas A and M.
1:54:35
Speaker 1: I leaned to Texas A and M, and they did
1:54:37
Speaker 1: not cover against Auburn, and they looked pretty bad in
1:54:40
Speaker 1: a win, which I think means you're gonna get focused
1:54:43
Speaker 1: from Texas A and M. That was kind of a
1:54:44
Speaker 1: bad spot for both teams against. Texas A and M
1:54:47
Speaker 1: went into the by having won all their games and
1:54:50
Speaker 1: they had beaten Notre Dame going into it, so they
1:54:52
Speaker 1: went into the buy in a really good note. Auburn
1:54:55
Speaker 1: was coming off that really brutal loss at the end
1:54:57
Speaker 1: to Oklahoma, so it was a difficult spot for both
1:54:59
Speaker 1: teams coming into this game. But if you look at
1:55:02
Speaker 1: just the score, it's like, well, wait, a mane. Texas
1:55:04
Speaker 1: A and M only scored sixteen points, so This is
1:55:06
Speaker 1: in the other part of this handicap man. Mississippi State
1:55:09
Speaker 1: looked really good in a loss. They scored thirty four
1:55:12
Speaker 1: points and a loss to Tennessee, So the public's gonna
1:55:14
Speaker 1: kind of want them after that, whereas they're gonna see
1:55:16
Speaker 1: Texas A and M only scored sixteen against Auburn. What
1:55:19
Speaker 1: the hell is that? So this is another angle that
1:55:23
Speaker 1: you can look for where you have a team like
1:55:24
Speaker 1: Mississippi State that looked really good in a loss, and
1:55:27
Speaker 1: when that happens, you want to go against that team
1:55:29
Speaker 1: more often than not in the next game, and they're
1:55:31
Speaker 1: playing against a team that looked really bad and to
1:55:34
Speaker 1: win Texas A and M, and I think that's the
1:55:37
Speaker 1: type of team you want to be on in the
1:55:38
Speaker 1: next week. And they were a six and a half
1:55:40
Speaker 1: point favorite, and they didn't cover the number, only scoring
1:55:42
Speaker 1: sixteen points. But if you dig into the box score here,
1:55:46
Speaker 1: what the hell happened in this game? Texas A and
1:55:48
Speaker 1: M outgained Auburn four fourteen to one seventy seven and
1:55:52
Speaker 1: they only lost a turnover about a one to nothing.
1:55:54
Speaker 1: So how did Texas A and M not blow them
1:55:56
Speaker 1: out in this game? It was it was statistical domination
1:56:00
Speaker 1: so from Texas A and M in this one, So
1:56:01
Speaker 1: I think they were actually kind of the right side here,
1:56:04
Speaker 1: twenty one to nine, at first downs, thirty four to
1:56:08
Speaker 1: twenty five, in time of possession base there thirty four
1:56:10
Speaker 1: to twenty six basically, so Texas A and M dominated
1:56:13
Speaker 1: all the main statistical categories completely. So how the fuck
1:56:17
Speaker 1: did they not win this game? By more? I mean,
1:56:20
Speaker 1: it was just kind of a weird game. And you
1:56:21
Speaker 1: have both teams in double digits and penalties Texas A
1:56:25
Speaker 1: and M thirteen penalties for one hundred and nineteen yards.
1:56:28
Speaker 1: But that's obviously something you can clean up, you know,
1:56:30
Speaker 1: Mike Elko, I mean, you're getting him as the coach here.
1:56:33
Speaker 1: I think he's the better of these two coaches, the
1:56:35
Speaker 1: more experienced coach. You know, he's gonna be drilling his
1:56:38
Speaker 1: team after that, Like, that's way too many penalties. That's
1:56:41
Speaker 1: just lack of discipline, man, So they can definitely clean
1:56:44
Speaker 1: that up. And then Auburn had ten penalties themselves, but
1:56:48
Speaker 1: not for anywhere near his many yards sixty nine hot
1:56:51
Speaker 1: and nice. And then the third down conversion rate was
1:56:54
Speaker 1: just insane in this game. Auburn was zero for thirteen
1:56:58
Speaker 1: and Texas A and M was three for fourteen, So
1:57:00
Speaker 1: both teams were horrendous on third down in the game,
1:57:03
Speaker 1: which is basically why neither team wound up scoring in
1:57:06
Speaker 1: the game. But it really held Texas Texas A and
1:57:09
Speaker 1: M excuseally their offense down as well. So yeah, I
1:57:12
Speaker 1: think it's kind of a misleading looking number here on
1:57:14
Speaker 1: this one too. I think the spot sets up nicely
1:57:16
Speaker 1: for a focus performance from A and M. Here agains
1:57:19
Speaker 1: Mississippi State will lay the points in that one, and
1:57:23
Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Man. I know we're losing a
1:57:24
Speaker 1: little bit of value on a couple of those. We're
1:57:26
Speaker 1: still gonna do it, hopefully. I don't have a bad week.
1:57:29
Speaker 1: But someone's point shaving maybe I don't know, maybe they're
1:57:33
Speaker 1: doing it with a raised or maybe they're point manscaping.
1:57:38
Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, gotta make that look good for
1:57:40
Speaker 1: the ladies. But we're still doing it, man. So once again,
1:57:43
Speaker 1: my best bets Purdue plus the nine and a half.
1:57:46
Speaker 1: I know I wish we could get the ten. I
1:57:47
Speaker 1: don't think it's gonna be there. If you want to
1:57:49
Speaker 1: wait to see if it happens, you can probably because
1:57:51
Speaker 1: there's not really a difference between nine and a half
1:57:53
Speaker 1: and nine, but I still like it. Louisville minus six
1:57:57
Speaker 1: and a half. You're getting the best of that number there,
1:57:59
Speaker 1: I think, for the most part, on the better side
1:58:01
Speaker 1: of seven Texas A and M minus a fifteen and
1:58:04
Speaker 1: a half. I know the line's gotten a little bit crazy.
1:58:07
Speaker 1: I would have loved the fourteen, but whatever, I know
1:58:11
Speaker 1: it cost me the Miami Ohio one. I know. I
1:58:14
Speaker 1: get that you want to try to get the best
1:58:15
Speaker 1: number whenever you can. You want to time it the best.
1:58:18
Speaker 1: But I do this show late, so I give out
1:58:20
Speaker 1: the plays. You know, I'm gonna say, I'm gonna still
1:58:22
Speaker 1: recommend it as a play at this number, man, and
1:58:25
Speaker 1: then Houston to finish it off at plus eleven and
1:58:27
Speaker 1: a half. And then I did have a few other
1:58:29
Speaker 1: leans I do like Kentucky, Ucla, Florida plus the points
1:58:34
Speaker 1: in those three and then whatever the other leans I
1:58:36
Speaker 1: had Wyoming actually because actually one of the stronger leans
1:58:39
Speaker 1: to this week. So that's gonna do it. Man. Thank you, sir, Charles,
1:58:44
Speaker 1: thank you again. You're too kind. I think nobody's gonna
1:58:48
Speaker 1: want to watch two hours with me ranting autistically, but
1:58:51
Speaker 1: I gotta do the fucking Instagram videos for this too.
1:58:54
Speaker 1: And I like to go to sleep after this and
1:58:55
Speaker 1: then I still love to do it. But we'll see
1:58:57
Speaker 1: what I can do. Man. I gotta get this up
1:58:59
Speaker 1: on audio platforms too. Learn it to on a Twitter,
1:59:02
Speaker 1: learn its on Instagram, Like subscribe to the show here, man,
1:59:05
Speaker 1: let's get I want to get more subscribers here. Man.
1:59:07
Speaker 1: I want to blow up this channel somehow. I need
1:59:11
Speaker 1: a better looking backdrop too. I gotta do something. I
1:59:13
Speaker 1: gotta be more entertaining somehow here. Matter just look more
1:59:17
Speaker 1: professional on it. But I got the Knigga hat on
1:59:19
Speaker 1: again today. Man, come on, let's go with that. My
1:59:23
Speaker 1: favorite dude. Although I never talk about his team, Eastern Michigan.
1:59:26
Speaker 1: They're playing this week, I think against Central or know
1:59:28
Speaker 1: they played Central Michigan last week. I think. I don't
1:59:30
Speaker 1: even know, man, I don't know what they're doing. But
1:59:32
Speaker 1: Eastern Michigan is not very good. Yeah, Like subscribe better
1:59:36
Speaker 1: off dead here on YouTube, listen on audio, give me
1:59:39
Speaker 1: a good review on audio on Apple and Spotify. That
1:59:42
Speaker 1: helps me out as well. Covered in Yuke the Yuke
1:59:44
Speaker 1: channel on YouTube. Gotta get that going a bit too.
1:59:47
Speaker 1: I want more listeners and subscribers for both, and then
1:59:52
Speaker 1: patreon dot com slash learned a tone and there's some
1:59:54
Speaker 1: bonus Yuke content there, and figure out what else to
1:59:56
Speaker 1: give the patrens because I'm not giving I'm not giving
1:59:59
Speaker 1: anybody in a man so great name. Yeah, Kanega, thank you,
2:00:04
Speaker 1: plus nine and a half of Eastern Michigan. I have
2:00:06
Speaker 1: no clue, man, You want me to look at that
2:00:08
Speaker 1: game real quick. I looked at it earlier and I
2:00:10
Speaker 1: was just like, I have no idea. The money is
2:00:12
Speaker 1: agreeing with you pretty significantly. By the way, that's against
2:00:14
Speaker 1: Buffalo in this Mac game in the afternoon, sixty percent
2:00:18
Speaker 1: of tickets on Buffalo, seventy six percent of the cash
2:00:21
Speaker 1: though coming on in Eastern Michigan, and then numbers all
2:00:24
Speaker 1: the way off from seven and a half to nine.
2:00:25
Speaker 1: You might even be I don't know, nine and a half.
2:00:27
Speaker 1: You might be able to get a ten on this too.
2:00:28
Speaker 1: I don't know, but yeah, the money's agreeing with you.
2:00:32
Speaker 1: I don't really have an opinion on this game though,
2:00:34
Speaker 1: other than yeah, I would agree with the market reeven.
2:00:36
Speaker 1: I don't know anything else. Buffalo, they're coming off a
2:00:38
Speaker 1: game against Yukon. I think that was a close line
2:00:40
Speaker 1: in that game. Don't really have much to say about
2:00:44
Speaker 1: the situation here. Man, Buffalo is two and three. Their
2:00:47
Speaker 1: best opponent was Minnesota, and they did hold their own
2:00:50
Speaker 1: in that game against Minnesota. At least they only lost
2:00:52
Speaker 1: by thirteen, not too bad. Eastern Michigan played Kentucky, so
2:00:57
Speaker 1: they're a little bit battle tested in that regard. They
2:01:00
Speaker 1: lost pretty badly in that game, so I don't know, Man,
2:01:03
Speaker 1: And they did have a big rivalry game last week
2:01:05
Speaker 1: and lost. That was their Central Michigan game that they
2:01:08
Speaker 1: lost last week, and it's a second road game in
2:01:11
Speaker 1: a row, so I don't know. I don't love how
2:01:13
Speaker 1: that sets up for Eastern Michigan. But the market is
2:01:16
Speaker 1: agreeing with you pretty strongly, So I'm not really gonna
2:01:18
Speaker 1: disagree with a strong market read like that. But I
2:01:21
Speaker 1: just don't really see, you know, I just don't really
2:01:24
Speaker 1: see a really strong case for it. So those are
2:01:28
Speaker 1: my thoughts on that, but I don't really disagree with it.
2:01:32
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it, Man. I'll be back in the morning.
2:01:34
Speaker 1: We've got playoff baseball for the most part to talk about.
2:01:37
Speaker 1: It'd be a short morning show this time, and then
2:01:39
Speaker 1: there might be WNB. I don't even know what happened
2:01:41
Speaker 1: in the WNBA tonight. I don't know if they're playing
2:01:43
Speaker 1: two days in a row or I think they might
2:01:44
Speaker 1: not be. I think they usually have a day off
2:01:46
Speaker 1: in between the two, even though they're staying in Vegas,
2:01:48
Speaker 1: I think for the first two. So I don't know
2:01:50
Speaker 1: whatever it is, So it'll probably just be baseball. It'll
2:01:53
Speaker 1: be a short show and late market reads, probably for college.
2:01:57
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it for now. Peace guys,