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How Diworsification Killed Allbirds. · The Curve

• 0:00
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, where we read the finance you see you don't have to.
• 0:04
  I am Vick Harris and I am a finance professional who's made a career out of making money for
• 0:09
  other people.
• 0:10
  And I'm Sophie Hallwright, I am a media producer, I worked in film, TV radio for a long
• 0:14
  time, I had no idea what was going on with the market, so we created this podcast.
• 0:18
  And a huge thank you to Emily Rigby, our fantastic producer, Iparan and the team that makes
• 0:23
  this podcast happen.
• 0:24
  In today's episode, the market's up back.
• 0:26
  And what do we mean by that?
• 0:28
  Basically, it is following exactly what Trump says up, down, up, down sideways, we're going
• 0:32
  to talk about what is going on there and also celebrate, visit a celebration, a year since
• 0:38
  the terrorist went in.
• 0:40
  So we're going to talk about how this is affected global trade.
• 0:43
  And one company has had a massive fall from grace, it's fallen 99% in the last five
• 0:49
  years from when IPO, so we talk about that company and what are some learnings?
• 0:53
  You know, that fitness kind of bro, black watch situation.
• 0:58
  LeBron James is one of the owners and this company is doing so well.
• 1:02
  We're going to talk about the health tech space, this sort of investing trend as a whole
• 1:07
  and what we're expecting to see from this particular business in the next two years.
• 1:11
  And one of my predictions for the year, look like it's coming true.
• 1:16
  As in, the company that Vitt Guest was going to go public is looking as though it's going
• 1:20
  to happen and be one of the world's biggest companies.
• 1:23
  So watch this, but first, we are watching ourselves on 0.7 speed, which let's just say not
• 1:31
  very cute.
• 1:32
  We sound a little drunk.
• 1:34
  So one of our friends, I have got permission to play this by the way.
• 1:38
  Yeah.
• 1:39
  So one of our friends who we've both known for a long time, she's honestly the best,
• 1:43
  we love her.
• 1:44
  Maybe I won't say her name, but we're going to be playing her voice to anyone who knows
• 1:47
  who will be like, oh, yes.
• 1:49
  Anyway, she sent me this voice, no, and I was like, this is so funny.
• 1:52
  I'm not going to watch what she's telling us to do until we're on the podcast.
• 1:56
  I'm just going to play a tiny subject to give context for what I'm actually talking about.
• 2:00
  The episode, latest one, which usually I do on a Friday morning, I've got a little ritual,
• 2:05
  but I was like, no, no.
• 2:08
  Listen to Sof and Vitt today, instead, it was really nice.
• 2:12
  And it was like, you want 0.7 speed, actually, and you both sound a drunk, like,
• 2:18
  or like, you're on something, like, you'd had a volume and a really strong tequila.
• 2:22
  And I was like, why, like, why do they sound like this, have they, do they know they sound like this?
• 2:29
  And then she went things and realized I was on 0.7.
• 2:33
  And so, quite a lot, if you want to listen to yourself on the quiet slow speed,
• 2:38
  it's funny.
• 2:39
  You've probably already done that.
• 2:41
  I was like, we haven't done that.
• 2:42
  No, we were drunk.
• 2:44
  It was that one.
• 2:46
  April Fools.
• 2:48
  Oh, my God.
• 2:49
  I actually, I was like, we've never done that before.
• 2:52
  It was so scary.
• 2:53
  I know.
• 2:54
  So she was listening for about 15 minutes without realizing what was going on.
• 2:57
  Oh, my goodness.
• 2:58
  She's like, oh, they sound really out of it.
• 3:00
  She's like, both of them do.
• 3:01
  Oh, my gosh.
• 3:02
  I'm the opposite.
• 3:03
  I'm like, two times everybody.
• 3:04
  Well, she didn't do it on purpose, which I thought was the finest part.
• 3:07
  So we're just going to play a tiny snippet.
• 3:10
  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, where we read the finance news, so you don't have to.
• 3:15
  I'm Vic Harris.
• 3:16
  I'm a finance professional and have had a career out of making money for people.
• 3:22
  And I'm Sophie Hallwright.
• 3:23
  I'm an ex-producer.
• 3:25
  I've worked in radio, television, and the media industry.
• 3:29
  And I was just really sick and tired of my life.
• 3:32
  Oh, my God.
• 3:33
  It's not good.
• 3:34
  It's really not good.
• 3:35
  Oh, my God.
• 3:36
  All we need to do is like a little slur.
• 3:38
  And then it's like, oh, my gosh.
• 3:39
  She spills something on ourselves.
• 3:41
  Oh, gosh.
• 3:43
  God, there's so many things to talk about today.
• 3:45
  But the markets are back up.
• 3:47
  I was expecting them to be down for longer, kind of.
• 3:52
  Or is this what they call a dead cat bounce?
• 3:54
  I what the hell is that?
• 3:56
  Is that what?
• 3:57
  That's what it's called.
• 3:58
  A dead cat bounce.
• 3:59
  Oh, that's weird.
• 4:00
  I don't know why, but I don't know why it's called that.
• 4:04
  But it's like when markets are falling and they kind of have a little reprieve.
• 4:08
  And then they have another leg down, like massively done.
• 4:11
  But I don't think that's what it's happening in this case.
• 4:13
  I mean, I don't know.
• 4:14
  I'm not a short term market predictor.
• 4:16
  But I have seen a lot of people saying that's what they think.
• 4:18
  They have a no.
• 4:19
  But this is just reacting to what Donald Trump says.
• 4:22
  And that's kind of what the market's been doing for the last 12 months.
• 4:26
  So he has come out and said that he reckons the war will be over in two to three weeks.
• 4:31
  If it is, this must be the shortest war in ever.
• 4:34
  Like what war lasts a total of like two months, two months?
• 4:39
  I also just look at the headlines and everything that's happening.
• 4:42
  And I think this feels far from peace.
• 4:44
  This feels far from things slowing down.
• 4:47
  Totally.
• 4:48
  Kind of shocked people believe him and reacted to it.
• 4:50
  That was more my...
• 4:51
  I don't know.
• 4:52
  I just feel like aren't we more aware that everything he does and says is to impact the market?
• 4:57
  Why are we trusting him?
• 4:59
  He's got so much invested in the stock market for it to do well.
• 5:03
  I think he's got something up his sleeve.
• 5:05
  Oh, Christ.
• 5:06
  I know.
• 5:07
  He's like, again, the puppeteer.
• 5:09
  But yeah, we've had oil come down below 100 again, which is great.
• 5:14
  But I think what?
• 5:16
  With all of this that's going on, there's still kind of an undertone of the global economy is not doing that well.
• 5:22
  You know, like we've still got inflation that's hitting in the wrong direction.
• 5:26
  We've still got high-ish unemployment in certain countries.
• 5:30
  We've still got GDP that's like, like there's still...
• 5:33
  Yeah, it's just...
• 5:34
  Yes, this might move the needle a little bit in stock markets, but...
• 5:37
  Do you know what it's giving?
• 5:39
  It's giving Donald Trump's fake tan.
• 5:43
  It's almost like fake propping up the market.
• 5:46
  Yeah.
• 5:47
  All the underlying issues are still there.
• 5:49
  Yeah.
• 5:50
  He's trying to mask it with a bit of fake tan.
• 5:51
  And it's also like...
• 5:53
  Like a war in a high oil price does impact the world.
• 5:58
  You know, even if it's short-term, I don't know.
• 6:00
  Yeah, I just feel like he can say what he wants.
• 6:02
  But the dire to speak for itself.
• 6:04
  Yeah.
• 6:05
  I'm...
• 6:06
  At what point are investors going to stop reacting to his word?
• 6:11
  I'm really curious to know...
• 6:14
  Well, it's his word, it's his word, but it's also what he does.
• 6:18
  You know, like he said, I'm going to put tariffs on, and then wound that back.
• 6:23
  So, he forgot to spoke, because he was doing...
• 6:26
  He was going to do what he said he was going to do, and then he wound it back.
• 6:29
  So, it's like, he sees things, and people believe it, because he does do it.
• 6:34
  Do you know what I mean?
• 6:35
  Like it's...
• 6:36
  He knows he is the master of one of the biggest economies in the world,
• 6:42
  and one of the most dominant stock markets in the world,
• 6:47
  that wealth is tied up in, and so he knows he has this control,
• 6:51
  and he knows whatever he sees, people react to.
• 6:53
  It's just volatile, right?
• 6:55
  It could be in two or three weeks' time the war's not over,
• 6:58
  and as we approach that time, markets are forward-looking,
• 7:01
  so they'll be like, oh, hang on, this isn't actually resolved.
• 7:04
  Because that's what he said.
• 7:05
  He said, you know, when the war first started, we over in about four weeks,
• 7:09
  and we're nearing that approach, nearing that date, things aren't over.
• 7:12
  So he's like, oh, it'll be another two or three weeks.
• 7:14
  Give the market a little bit of excitement, and then as that timeline comes...
• 7:18
  You know, like it's...
• 7:19
  Oh, I don't love it, and I also think, you know,
• 7:23
  one of the things that drives up the war
• 7:26
  is the idea of investing in gambling.
• 7:28
  And honestly, when you see the biggest stock market in the world,
• 7:32
  the biggest economy, riding off of whatever Donald Trump says,
• 7:37
  kind of makes me feel like the value of what you're buying is sort of irrelevant.
• 7:43
  You know, like it makes the whole thing feel more...
• 7:47
  More like gambling, honestly.
• 7:49
  No, but what he says...
• 7:52
  Has a ripple effect for the economy, and then that comes through in companies,
• 7:56
  if that makes sense.
• 7:57
  So if he's saying the war's going to be over in two or three weeks,
• 7:59
  it means oil's going to come down, which means airlines will be better off,
• 8:02
  which means that inflation will be lower.
• 8:04
  You know, like there isn't just...
• 8:05
  It's not just what he says.
• 8:07
  It's a repercussions of what he says he's always going to introduce,
• 8:10
  or he's going to do, or he's not going to do...
• 8:12
  And then because they're forward-looking.
• 8:14
  Yeah. And because markets forward-looking, they then think,
• 8:16
  oh, if he's saying that then these things are going to happen.
• 8:19
  Then oil will be lower.
• 8:21
  Yeah, all of that. So, yeah.
• 8:27
  Oh, we've just got a new female CEO of BP,
• 8:31
  the first female of a major oil company,
• 8:34
  and we're in the height of some of the highest oil prices we've ever had.
• 8:39
  Oh, God.
• 8:40
  But I'm hoping that she'll be good for BP.
• 8:42
  I mean, is she going to close it down?
• 8:44
  If she closed BP down, we would have so many more issues in the world.
• 8:49
  Can we talk about that?
• 8:51
  Like, in terms of what oil is actually used for?
• 8:54
  Because I think that I have such a skewed view on.
• 8:59
  Oil-bad, let's not use it.
• 9:01
  Because I think you're just thinking oil like that.
• 9:03
  No, 100%.
• 9:04
  Like, we're looking at everything in the studio, probably made with oil.
• 9:07
  Not ideal.
• 9:08
  Yeah, fossil fuels.
• 9:10
  You know, like it's kind of like 99% of plastic in the world is made from oil.
• 9:15
  If you think oil helps heat homes, gives people energy.
• 9:19
  Not people, but like the houses.
• 9:20
  Like getting more of skill, I know.
• 9:22
  So like retirement religious.
• 9:24
  Any house relies on energy to keep you.
• 9:26
  You really try and get me with your like old person.
• 9:28
  But I just think there's no.
• 9:29
  I feel like this is her go to.
• 9:31
  Like, you should like be paid because there's an old person getting really cold
• 9:35
  because fuels expensive.
• 9:36
  I'm like, no, it's just I was kind of in that camp of.
• 9:40
  By the way, if you know on the hasn't listened to the last week's episode,
• 9:43
  really incredibly unhinged from me.
• 9:46
  Why?
• 9:47
  Because it just sounds like I don't care about old people getting cold.
• 9:49
  Oh, right.
• 9:50
  Yeah, just to clarify.
• 9:51
  No, but this is I was in this camp.
• 9:52
  And I was like, you know what?
• 9:53
  Like, why is it taking so long to get renewable energy, you know,
• 9:56
  as kind of the dominant energy in every country.
• 9:59
  And I was getting really like frustrated.
• 10:01
  And then I realized, okay, if we just switched off like oil exploration,
• 10:06
  like exploration, wow, oil exploration, if we switched off coal plants,
• 10:10
  if we switched off all the dirty, dirty power,
• 10:13
  there would be people without power.
• 10:16
  And if you think in the depths of London winter,
• 10:18
  you'd have deaths.
• 10:19
  I think you would just, you have to do a rolled out approach.
• 10:24
  Don't get me wrong.
• 10:25
  Could definitely be accelerators.
• 10:27
  And I think that's what will come from this.
• 10:29
  This whole reliance on oil in the least with the most volatile area
• 10:34
  of the world right now.
• 10:35
  I hope it will lead to diversification.
• 10:37
  I think a really good thing is that the UK and Europe
• 10:40
  is going into summer for the next sort of six months.
• 10:43
  Because I think if we were heading into winter,
• 10:45
  this would be really scary for a lot of people.
• 10:48
  I mean, it's scary anyway.
• 10:50
  But I think in terms of the southern hemisphere heading into winter.
• 10:53
  I don't know why I thought that was a good thing in reverse.
• 10:57
  As if there's less population.
• 10:59
  Probably is.
• 11:01
  I think you probably is.
• 11:02
  But there's always always some part in the world in winter.
• 11:06
  Oh my God, the logic in my head was,
• 11:08
  everyone's heating into summer.
• 11:10
  It's not very literally.
• 11:11
  I was thinking, oh God, it's so cold in Europe in winter.
• 11:15
  As if it doesn't get cold in other parts of the world.
• 11:17
  Because I guess the New Zealand winter isn't as dire.
• 11:19
  No.
• 11:20
  But it is still cold.
• 11:21
  Yeah.
• 11:22
  Still need heating.
• 11:23
  Yeah.
• 11:24
  But also, you've got to think of,
• 11:25
  and there's been stories on the news of highlighting
• 11:28
  kind of small remote businesses that have been severely impacted
• 11:33
  because they just can't afford to buy oil,
• 11:36
  which by petrol, which is oil.
• 11:38
  And like in Thailand,
• 11:40
  it's mainly in Southeast Asia,
• 11:41
  where it's been most impacted.
• 11:42
  And you've got these remote villages that can't even use
• 11:45
  the motorbike that they use to get the water up to
• 11:49
  to put the water in the plants and the agriculture.
• 11:52
  Like little things like that.
• 11:53
  Like you just see,
• 11:54
  oh, it's a bit more expensive at the pump for us.
• 11:56
  But there's actually,
• 11:58
  when you have countries that are getting 90% of their oil
• 12:02
  from the Middle East,
• 12:04
  I mean, they're feeling it way more than we are.
• 12:06
  Also, even being in Vietnam,
• 12:08
  I mean, I feel like I've had not much cultural exposure
• 12:10
  in the last couple of years,
• 12:12
  like have really been, as you can tell,
• 12:14
  in the Northern Hemisphere.
• 12:15
  But when I was in Vietnam,
• 12:17
  that was one of the things I thought we did a motorbike trip
• 12:19
  through the mountains.
• 12:20
  There was all these houses in the middle of nowhere.
• 12:23
  And you're right.
• 12:24
  A lot of them have their whole family on a motorbike,
• 12:27
  like five of them.
• 12:29
  These kids are sometimes walking, you know, 10 kilometers
• 12:32
  to your home or two school.
• 12:34
  The motorbike scenario is how a lot of them
• 12:38
  then get to any of the jobs where they make money.
• 12:40
  I mean, imagine if they just are stranded,
• 12:42
  can't get food, can't get groceries, can't get water.
• 12:44
  And in the middle of nowhere,
• 12:46
  like it's quite scary.
• 12:47
  Yeah.
• 12:48
  And if we think of plastic itself,
• 12:50
  like a bad example,
• 12:52
  because I don't hate them,
• 12:53
  we've run and hates them.
• 12:54
  It's plastic.
• 12:55
  Like a plastic bottle is
• 12:57
  yes, there's oil and used and making that plastic bottle.
• 13:00
  But then there's also oil used to getting it from A to B.
• 13:03
  You know, like it's not,
• 13:04
  it's in the manufacturing process.
• 13:05
  Also, and like the moving and the logistics of that item.
• 13:08
  Like there's just...
• 13:09
  It's everywhere.
• 13:10
  It's not good.
• 13:12
  It's not good.
• 13:13
  It's not good at all.
• 13:14
  We've got an anniversary now, Vic.
• 13:17
  We do.
• 13:18
  It's a big birthday.
• 13:19
  Oh, a celebration.
• 13:20
  It's a year anniversary,
• 13:22
  since our dear friend put the tariffs on the world.
• 13:25
  Yes.
• 13:26
  This is pretty much to the day, actually,
• 13:29
  that Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs,
• 13:33
  pretty much on every single country in the world,
• 13:35
  as part of his like liberation day.
• 13:38
  They were called liberation day tariffs,
• 13:39
  because he was liberating America.
• 13:41
  Anyway, Canada and Mexico were much higher than that.
• 13:43
  But yes, today, 12 months ago,
• 13:46
  was when that was announced.
• 13:48
  Play the clip.
• 13:49
  Shall we?
• 13:50
  Play the clip.
• 13:51
  Okay, we're going back in time.
• 13:53
  I have never been more excited
• 13:55
  for a curved weekly than this one than today.
• 13:58
  Like I...
• 13:59
  I've got my power suit on.
• 14:00
  I'm reading.
• 14:01
  By reporter.
• 14:03
  Crossing line.
• 14:04
  Now, to London.
• 14:05
  Look at the excitement in your face.
• 14:07
  So Donald Trump announced that
• 14:10
  he was going to effectively stop globalization as we know it.
• 14:14
  And globalization just means
• 14:16
  the ease of movement of products around the world.
• 14:19
  You know, it's everyone,
• 14:20
  every country leaning into their strengths
• 14:22
  and producing what they can at the best possible price
• 14:25
  so that the rest of the world can benefit.
• 14:27
  And that is meant that we've benefited
• 14:30
  as a global economy
• 14:32
  from being able to purchase cheaper goods
• 14:35
  because he runs,
• 14:36
  leaning into their strengths.
• 14:37
  And what Donald Trump has done
• 14:39
  is he has said,
• 14:40
  you know what?
• 14:41
  I've had enough.
• 14:42
  There is too many jobs
• 14:44
  that are being lost to other countries
• 14:46
  and not given to Americans.
• 14:49
  He announced tariffs on over 100 countries.
• 14:52
  The shock factor for the stock market
• 14:54
  was, oh my goodness,
• 14:56
  what does this mean for the future?
• 14:58
  It blows my mind.
• 15:00
  You know, I think sometimes back to...
• 15:02
  I'm like, that was a year ago.
• 15:04
  Gosh, that feels like it's today.
• 15:06
  I also just sometimes,
• 15:07
  I know that the least important thing to think about
• 15:09
  is the clothes that we're wearing.
• 15:11
  I was like, wow,
• 15:12
  I really made an effort there.
• 15:13
  And now I'm in like...
• 15:14
  I thought this...
• 15:15
  I thought this was...
• 15:17
  The anniversary of the tariffs.
• 15:19
  I'm sitting here
• 15:20
  and like what kind of looks like
• 15:22
  like a school teacher's outfit.
• 15:24
  Like I've got sneakers with my...
• 15:26
  We really let myself go in the last year.
• 15:29
  I like the power suit.
• 15:31
  I might bring that back.
• 15:32
  Yeah, I think you should.
• 15:33
  There was a good look.
• 15:34
  I don't like more of any of it.
• 15:35
  Can we talk about the facts that we didn't even...
• 15:37
  Well, I didn't even know what a tariff was.
• 15:39
  You know, when things...
• 15:41
  It was the same with inflation years and years ago.
• 15:44
  I kind of angling you up, but didn't.
• 15:46
  There's almost these hallmark moments in the last five years,
• 15:49
  since we've been doing the podcast,
• 15:51
  where there's been these big realizations
• 15:54
  or a new concept introduced that...
• 15:56
  Like a deed cat bounce.
• 15:58
  Exactly.
• 15:59
  What the hell is the deed cat bounce?
• 16:01
  Or the black swan.
• 16:02
  Or the...
• 16:03
  I mean, the run on the bag.
• 16:04
  There's all these things that...
• 16:05
  A lot on the streets.
• 16:06
  On the knees.
• 16:07
  Sharks are circling.
• 16:08
  Oh my god.
• 16:09
  It's just...
• 16:10
  It's so dramatic.
• 16:11
  It's so dramatic.
• 16:12
  The tariffs have been around now for an entire year.
• 16:15
  All these men sitting behind their computers with their G-lays
• 16:17
  trying to make it so dramatic.
• 16:19
  It's like...
• 16:20
  Yeah.
• 16:21
  Everyone will go to deed cat bounce.
• 16:23
  We'll go to deed cat bounce.
• 16:24
  The sharks are circling.
• 16:25
  The sharks are circling.
• 16:26
  Apple's on its knees, everyone.
• 16:28
  Oh my god.
• 16:29
  Anyway, so...
• 16:30
  Anyway, we're a year.
• 16:31
  We're a year.
• 16:32
  We're a year since that.
• 16:33
  What a...
• 16:34
  I have to say...
• 16:35
  The markets are up 16% since we recorded that episode.
• 16:40
  So we were like, oh my gosh, they're falling.
• 16:42
  They're falling.
• 16:43
  I mean, they did fall in April.
• 16:45
  And anyone who bought them amazing.
• 16:47
  Anyone who was...
• 16:48
  Get a close up of your $1.
• 16:50
  Dollar cost every day.
• 16:51
  I bought so much.
• 16:52
  It was the best...
• 16:53
  It was the highlight of my career, I would say.
• 16:55
  Yeah.
• 16:56
  So in April last year,
• 16:58
  stock markets fell about 12%.
• 17:00
  They've now rebounded and they're up 16% since that last...
• 17:04
  Since that clip.
• 17:05
  So since 12 months ago.
• 17:06
  So I remember, like, markets...
• 17:08
  The US stock market usually does about 10%.
• 17:10
  So 16%.
• 17:11
  It's great.
• 17:12
  Yeah.
• 17:13
  And if we look at what was the biggest fear
• 17:17
  from tariffs being introduced was inflation.
• 17:20
  We're actually in the US, New Zealand, UK.
• 17:24
  Pretty much the same orbiter than we were in terms of inflation levels.
• 17:28
  Oh my god, I'm so conflicted.
• 17:30
  Because on the one hand, I want it to be really bad
• 17:33
  so that we can look at Trump and say, you're absolutely wrong.
• 17:36
  And then on the other hand, I'm like, thank God.
• 17:39
  Because I know inflation would be crippling so many of us right now.
• 17:42
  Look, it's estimated that it would probably cost the average household nearly $3,000 per household
• 17:49
  in terms of increased costs.
• 17:51
  Is that annual increase?
• 17:53
  Yeah.
• 17:54
  So that's why it would have kind of cost every household with these tariff impacts.
• 17:59
  But we've had other things at play as well, like AI,
• 18:02
  which has helped keep inflation a bit lower.
• 18:05
  You know, there's so much else going on in the world.
• 18:08
  But it's just funny, like even the headlines back then of, you know,
• 18:12
  this is going to impact global economy and then all of that.
• 18:15
  And it's kind of like, well, we're sitting here 12 months later
• 18:19
  and hasn't really done that.
• 18:20
  And I think it's a really good reminder that you just need to keep investing.
• 18:25
  I saw this little clip on social media and it was like,
• 18:28
  all the reasons not to invest.
• 18:30
  And it was like in 2016 Brexit,
• 18:33
  like it goes through every year from 2016 to 2016.
• 18:36
  2016, there was Brexit 2018.
• 18:39
  There was actually a trade war.
• 18:40
  2020 was global pandemic.
• 18:41
  Like it goes through every single year.
• 18:43
  After the global pandemic, we had the supply chain crisis.
• 18:46
  Then we had rate hikes.
• 18:47
  Then we had AI bubble.
• 18:48
  Then we had the tariffs.
• 18:49
  Now we've sold.
• 18:50
  Last year was the tariffs.
• 18:51
  Now we've got the Iran war and the oil spike.
• 18:53
  Like there is always going to be something.
• 18:55
  Yeah.
• 18:56
  And I think that's a good reminder.
• 18:58
  Yeah, it's like every year there is something that is supposedly going to derail
• 19:02
  the stock market.
• 19:03
  At what point do we just realise that media needs things to write about?
• 19:08
  Well, do we just do a curve weekly every five years and go,
• 19:11
  oh, well, not much has happened.
• 19:13
  Oh, the stock market's gone up.
• 19:14
  Oh, there's been a really notched idea.
• 19:16
  I thought that by the way, from a business perspective.
• 19:18
  Like I'm kind of glad there's so much to do with that.
• 19:20
  Yeah, yeah.
• 19:21
  But it's just kind of highlights.
• 19:23
  It's great to know what's going on and being part of the conversation.
• 19:26
  And like you said, know what a tariff is.
• 19:28
  Know what inflation is.
• 19:30
  But you don't need to react.
• 19:32
  And I think sometimes the most boring investing strategies are the best.
• 19:36
  In 2025, when the tariffs came in.
• 19:39
  Had there been tariffs before?
• 19:41
  Like was this a part of, I don't know,
• 19:44
  an economic strategy at any other time?
• 19:47
  Yeah.
• 19:48
  There's always a lot of countries do have tariffs on other countries.
• 19:52
  But they're reasonable, right?
• 19:54
  They're not ridiculous.
• 19:56
  Like Trump was going to put a blanket increase on all countries.
• 20:01
  It's like, no, no, you look at each country and you look, OK,
• 20:04
  is that fair that you are charging me this and I'm charging you that?
• 20:10
  Then he did.
• 20:11
  So it was a 10% blanket.
• 20:12
  And then he did the reciprocal tariffs,
• 20:14
  which were even higher, which was like the next leg of tariffs.
• 20:17
  So there was a huge step up in tariffs.
• 20:19
  That was when he did like the 150% on,
• 20:22
  I think it was some of the Asian markets.
• 20:24
  But that 10% was the biggest since like the 1930s.
• 20:28
  Crazy, isn't it?
• 20:29
  Yeah.
• 20:30
  I do feel like Trump is trying to create a world that is exactly like the 1930s.
• 20:35
  In many regards.
• 20:36
  I agree.
• 20:37
  Yes.
• 20:38
  We save that for another person.
• 20:39
  I was listening to this business owner who has a company called Princess Awesome.
• 20:47
  It's a children's clothing brand.
• 20:49
  And her and one of her friends started it like 10 years ago.
• 20:51
  And she was basically sharing her story or her experience over the last year
• 20:56
  and how it's impacted her business.
• 20:58
  They manufactured their clothes offshore, so not in the US.
• 21:02
  Before tariffs came in, they were growing really significantly.
• 21:06
  The business was going well, everything was fine.
• 21:08
  When the tariffs came in, it was like a 30,000 tariff impact on them.
• 21:14
  And the day that they came in, they actually wrote to all of their customers.
• 21:18
  And they were like, hi, everyone, we want to explain what tariffs are
• 21:21
  and how they impact businesses and how they're going to impact us normal.
• 21:24
  And they explain that normally businesses pass those tariffs or those extra prices
• 21:28
  on to consumers.
• 21:29
  But they basically said we're not going to do that.
• 21:32
  We're not going to make our clothes more expensive.
• 21:34
  We're going to do what we can to absorb this.
• 21:36
  And the customers responded really well.
• 21:38
  They sent it all around the place.
• 21:40
  And then basically then they were contacted by the Pacific Legal Foundation,
• 21:44
  asking if they wanted to join in this whole lawsuit against the tariffs.
• 21:49
  So I didn't even realise that a year ago, people were already trying to get refunds,
• 21:56
  which I was like, gosh, when we said it, they just had to be illegal,
• 22:00
  a court order saying they were illegal.
• 22:02
  So they were building this case in the assumption that they were illegal.
• 22:07
  And then that got passed, and then that came out, we can apply for refunds.
• 22:11
  So I just had no idea about it anyway.
• 22:13
  So they were dealing with this in the background.
• 22:15
  But I just think it was quite interesting.
• 22:17
  So they started talking about how one of the quotes in the interview,
• 22:20
  she said it feels like we're playing battleship.
• 22:23
  And you just don't know when you're going to get hit.
• 22:26
  And if we get hit, we're sinking.
• 22:28
  And she was talking about the fact she's a two person business.
• 22:31
  They've spent their bed a part of a decade building it.
• 22:34
  And the whole point of tariffs is to bring manufacturing into the US.
• 22:39
  But she was just saying, they've tried to have their clothes made in the US.
• 22:43
  They don't have the infrastructure.
• 22:45
  The factories aren't set up, which sounds kind of odd to say
• 22:48
  and a lot of people in the comments of this interview were like,
• 22:50
  as if America doesn't know how to produce clothing.
• 22:52
  But she was just saying, we've tried.
• 22:54
  If we wanted to produce in the US, we would have to import someone from overseas
• 22:59
  who knows how to run factories and do this.
• 23:01
  By our own machinery, make it happen.
• 23:04
  It's just like, if the point is to make small businesses bring their manufacturing
• 23:10
  like onshore, tariffs is like the worst way.
• 23:13
  No, it's all it's going to do is sink their business before they have a chance
• 23:17
  to do anything differently.
• 23:18
  It's almost like subsidies is probably the best way to do it.
• 23:20
  This is what she's like.
• 23:21
  Like subsidies or grants, which is like, yeah, it's not as though we're not open to it.
• 23:24
  But going about it in this way.
• 23:26
  Or it's just because like, and this is exactly what happened with Apple
• 23:29
  like, you know, 20 years ago when they started moving their manufacturing to China.
• 23:33
  Was that they were looking at, it's the cost, but also how long.
• 23:39
  Because like, the Chinese were hungry for that work.
• 23:43
  Because they had a rising middle class.
• 23:45
  That were way less affluent, weren't getting paid as much.
• 23:47
  And they were like, you know what, we're hungry for these jobs.
• 23:49
  We will work.
• 23:50
  I mean, it's not probably socially acceptable now.
• 23:52
  But they would work, you know, as many hours as they could to get that work across the line.
• 23:57
  Because that was like an necessity for them.
• 23:59
  Whereas in America, and they'll be like, no, I'm only working.
• 24:02
  No, I'm only working 95 and I want to get paid ex.
• 24:05
  You know, there's kind of, I think it's, it's just supply and demand.
• 24:08
  And then that makes China much more affluent.
• 24:12
  And they can put that money back into, back into their economy and help grow their economy.
• 24:17
  And then they, and now we've seen it 20 years later.
• 24:20
  You know, Chinese manufacturing is, is more expensive.
• 24:23
  And, and then some people are going to Vietnam, they're going to India.
• 24:27
  And like, it's just put it, but it helps bring up these economies.
• 24:30
  And America is already up there, if that makes sense.
• 24:34
  So it's kind of, I don't know, it's like, it's just global trade.
• 24:38
  And globalization is great for the greater goods.
• 24:43
  When you start closing off and being, you know, China restrict things to your own country.
• 24:48
  It's just like, let Mexico be good at growing avocado.
• 24:52
  Totally.
• 24:53
  Let Bangladesh be amazing at producing clothing.
• 24:57
  Yeah.
• 24:58
  You know, it doesn't, you don't have to be able to see that.
• 25:00
  Yeah.
• 25:01
  And the whole point of having a global economy is that you buy and sell things from different parts of the world.
• 25:06
  Oh, it's like, yeah, let's, what?
• 25:09
  No, it's just like, let's get Emily to produce the podcast because she's graded at, you know,
• 25:14
  let's not sit there and have me try and do it.
• 25:17
  Let's outsource.
• 25:18
  Like, it would take a month to edit one podcast.
• 25:22
  Like, know your skills, know like, and then you can reach more audiences, grow the podcast.
• 25:28
  You know, it's the same at a country level.
• 25:30
  It's like, let's not, you know, we don't have the skills or, you know, guess we might have the skills.
• 25:35
  We don't have the appropriate cost.
• 25:37
  Whatever it is.
• 25:38
  But yeah, it's just like leaning into their skillsets.
• 25:40
  And I think this example of this small business is, it basically just makes you realise, yeah, okay.
• 25:46
  Yeah, okay.
• 25:47
  Maybe you do want to bring manufacture and clothing in as a part of the US economy and something
• 25:52
  that isn't sent off shore.
• 25:54
  But in the same way, I took China 20 years to get good at that.
• 25:58
  It's going to take a while for businesses to be able to get the same quality, the same price,
• 26:03
  the same experience in house or in America than they currently do overseas because they've spent 20 years developing these.
• 26:10
  That is their primary industry.
• 26:12
  So I think, you know, we're celebrating the year.
• 26:15
  We're not really celebrating the year.
• 26:17
  I mean, but it's kind of interesting just to look at the last 12 months in review
• 26:21
  and how it's actually impacting businesses in the economy.
• 26:25
  Yeah.
• 26:26
  We've got a company that is no longer a public company.
• 26:29
  And it's got a little New Zealand type to it.
• 26:32
  A lot of question chips.
• 26:33
  Yes.
• 26:34
  Now, this business, I would say, is the business that we were all very proud of.
• 26:40
  You know, it was like a little success story.
• 26:43
  You may have seen the little woolen shoes trotting around on, like, older men.
• 26:48
  On 50-year-old men who thought they were cool.
• 26:50
  And we're talking about all birds.
• 26:52
  I actually had a friend come up to me last night and they were like,
• 26:55
  Vic, you have to talk about all birds on the podcast.
• 26:58
  I was like, yep.
• 26:59
  Already?
• 27:00
  Don't you worry.
• 27:01
  Don't you worry.
• 27:02
  But yeah, it's unfortunately not a public company anymore.
• 27:06
  It got bought by a company called American Exchange Group
• 27:10
  who owns, like, Ted Baker and, like, a whole lot like other brands.
• 27:14
  Yeah.
• 27:15
  All of that makes a lot of sense.
• 27:17
  Very similar clientele.
• 27:19
  Yes.
• 27:20
  So it got bought for $39 million.
• 27:24
  Which sounds like a lot, but yeah.
• 27:26
  Let's just explain why that is a terrible purchase.
• 27:28
  But sorry, not terrible purchase.
• 27:30
  Terrible sale.
• 27:31
  Yes.
• 27:32
  So five years ago, in 2021, at IPO's,
• 27:36
  and it was valued at $4 billion.
• 27:39
  Since then, it has only gone one way.
• 27:41
  And that is...
• 27:42
  So Steve is telling you that.
• 27:44
  And it's sheer price has fallen 99%.
• 27:48
  So it's gone from $4 billion to, effectively, $40 million.
• 27:52
  So if you had invested $100 grand in this business,
• 27:57
  you would have walked away with $1,000.
• 27:59
  Or if you had invested $100, you would have walked away with $1.
• 28:01
  But that is a really bad return on investment.
• 28:04
  That is like the worst return on investment.
• 28:07
  That's like, ugh.
• 28:08
  Yeah.
• 28:09
  And I think this is a really good example.
• 28:11
  When this happened, and actually, when big businesses,
• 28:14
  IPO, as in debut, first time on the stock market,
• 28:17
  woohoo, everyone can buy shares.
• 28:19
  People get massive FOMO.
• 28:21
  And they want to buy.
• 28:22
  And this particular IPO, when people bought shares, I mean.
• 28:26
  I remember talking about it.
• 28:28
  And because it was up 90% on day one.
• 28:31
  Like it was one of the...
• 28:32
  Everyone was like, damn it, damn.
• 28:34
  But it's like, no, no, no.
• 28:36
  Imagine any bought there.
• 28:37
  Yeah.
• 28:38
  And then they mounted...
• 28:39
  It's been the last person that bought.
• 28:41
  And then it was all down.
• 28:43
  But I also think because it was a product that lots of people knew.
• 28:47
  There was a lot of hype around it.
• 28:49
  It was kind of new and shiny back then.
• 28:52
  It was the poster trial for sustainability, which was huge.
• 28:56
  There had a lot of things going for it.
• 28:58
  It was also 2021.
• 29:00
  If you think back to then, 2020 was COVID.
• 29:03
  And then the market absolutely roofed it after that.
• 29:06
  And so it was...
• 29:08
  Everyone was euphoric.
• 29:09
  Everyone was like, you know what?
• 29:11
  COVID, COVID, who, you know.
• 29:13
  Like it was...
• 29:14
  Everything was going gangbusters.
• 29:16
  And that's when they IPOed.
• 29:18
  So they IPOed kind of the peak euphoric moment
• 29:21
  with a big sustainability trend behind them.
• 29:25
  And they just rolled out stores way too quickly.
• 29:29
  They decided to go direct to consumer.
• 29:31
  So had fashion stores.
• 29:33
  I mean, we've seen them all around London, like it's...
• 29:35
  There's a lot of marketing as well, too.
• 29:37
  Yeah.
• 29:38
  They spent a lot of money on marketing.
• 29:40
  Yeah.
• 29:41
  And competition.
• 29:42
  There's now, you know, so many brands in the sustainable fashion space.
• 29:47
  And they also expanded beyond shoes to...
• 29:50
  I think this was their biggest downfall, wasn't it?
• 29:52
  They started with shoes, they were successful.
• 29:55
  And then they started producing jackets and all sorts of things.
• 29:58
  Which makes sense, right?
• 29:59
  Like you start with a product and then you expand from there.
• 30:01
  But I mean, they just, they were not worth it.
• 30:03
  No, it's called diversification.
• 30:06
  You love it?
• 30:08
  Stick to what you know.
• 30:09
  And what you know is woolen shoes, not jackets.
• 30:11
  Yeah.
• 30:12
  And like, we've seen it with little...
• 30:13
  Too worst of occasion, that's...
• 30:15
  Being brilliant.
• 30:16
  It's, we've seen it with little lemon, too.
• 30:18
  I mean, I love the yoga pants, do not get me wrong.
• 30:21
  I don't like this skirt.
• 30:22
  I don't like it.
• 30:23
  Like, you know, I'm just...
• 30:25
  I'm just...
• 30:27
  Yeah, it's like, stick to what you know.
• 30:28
  But then again, there's only so many times you can iterate a yoga pants.
• 30:32
  You have to get a yoga pants.
• 30:33
  Or a shoe.
• 30:34
  Yeah.
• 30:35
  Anyway, the reason it's got a kiwi tilt to it is that there was a kiwi soccer player called Tim Brown.
• 30:39
  He was worth 650 million at IPO.
• 30:42
  And he's now, who's got a few million?
• 30:45
  Devastating.
• 30:46
  He put Hicks for his money in.
• 30:47
  He was a founder.
• 30:49
  So, when the company's valued it for billion and you own a significant stake,
• 30:53
  so his stake was worth 650 million.
• 30:55
  Yikes.
• 30:56
  And he held on.
• 30:57
  He held on.
• 30:58
  And now he's worth a couple of million.
• 31:00
  Devastating.
• 31:01
  I think the kind of the learning here, you're right.
• 31:03
  So if IPO's are not your one shot to invest, I think that's really important.
• 31:07
  You can get caught up.
• 31:08
  The majority of IPO's do not do well.
• 31:12
  So, like, don't panic and be like, damn it, I've missed out.
• 31:15
  That was my one shot to get in.
• 31:17
  Like, there will be other times.
• 31:19
  And so, I think it's really important.
• 31:21
  I think the other thing is profits.
• 31:23
  This company never made a profit.
• 31:25
  Do you know what's interesting?
• 31:26
  I was looking at the story.
• 31:27
  They have sold for less than the amount of inventory that they have.
• 31:31
  Which shows the value.
• 31:33
  I mean, they have only three million in, like, product, left.
• 31:38
  They've kind of been bought for what they still own.
• 31:41
  It's kind of bad.
• 31:43
  But I think it's, yeah, the fact that never made a profit.
• 31:46
  And it's a retail business is pretty scary.
• 31:49
  But how do you make that, how is your IPO that successful?
• 31:53
  And the future of your business, that optimistic.
• 31:56
  If you've never made a profit, I don't understand that.
• 31:58
  Because a lot of companies don't.
• 32:00
  I guess Uber took years, didn't I?
• 32:02
  It's all about the future.
• 32:04
  And they'll be saying, you know, we're going to turn a profit when we reach X Revenue.
• 32:07
  And like, all of that.
• 32:08
  Then you slowly start to see, well, hang on, you've missed your revenue.
• 32:12
  That profit's going to take longer to get, you know, to reach to actually happen.
• 32:16
  And like, all of that.
• 32:17
  So they raised 300 million to give them a few years of buffer until they reach a profit.
• 32:24
  But their losses were about 400 million.
• 32:27
  So there's 100 million gap of, like, what they raised, see them through to profit.
• 32:32
  But they're like, they still never turn a profit.
• 32:34
  And that's when you get like, oh, shit.
• 32:36
  And you could go back to investors and raise more money.
• 32:40
  So you're not getting a lot of money for this.
• 32:42
  No, you're kind of like, oh gosh, okay.
• 32:44
  People put in money up here.
• 32:46
  And now we value down here and we're having to get more money.
• 32:48
  Like, you rebase anyway.
• 32:50
  But the other question on with this is, if you were a shareholder,
• 32:54
  when should you sell?
• 32:56
  Or when should you have sold?
• 32:57
  I mean, hindsight's great.
• 32:58
  It would have been, you know, back when it was four billion.
• 33:01
  I think.
• 33:02
  Could you have sold then, like, how quickly didn't it go immediately that high?
• 33:06
  As in in the first few weeks?
• 33:07
  Yes.
• 33:08
  Yeah, I think how you meant to think that.
• 33:10
  Yeah.
• 33:11
  No, it's hard, right?
• 33:12
  And like, there would have been a lot of at the time.
• 33:15
  Yeah.
• 33:16
  Excitement about all birds and, you know, kind of drinking the Kool-Aid
• 33:19
  and that kind of stuff.
• 33:20
  But.
• 33:21
  Because it was around the time when a lot of people,
• 33:24
  it was probably millennials between 30 and 40-year-olds were obsessed with them.
• 33:28
  That was kind of the peak.
• 33:30
  It was that sort of age group.
• 33:31
  And then they tried to target Gen Z's.
• 33:34
  And like, sorry.
• 33:36
  But what makes you think that you've fallen out to keep the Gen Z trend going?
• 33:40
  Like, I think about the people that own all birds.
• 33:43
  I don't want to own them.
• 33:45
  I don't want to.
• 33:46
  Do you know?
• 33:47
  That's what I mean.
• 33:48
  I mean, even, but we're even less cool.
• 33:49
  Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 33:50
  Yeah.
• 33:51
  They've also got one style.
• 33:52
  I just think there was so many disasters with this brand.
• 33:54
  But also, we could sit here on a high horse and be like, oh, what?
• 33:57
  Of course.
• 33:58
  No, neither.
• 33:59
  No, neither.
• 34:00
  I always looked them and thought, really?
• 34:01
  Are we getting on board with those?
• 34:03
  These slow comfort.
• 34:04
  And I was like, I don't care.
• 34:05
  Like, I'd rather be in place.
• 34:06
  I'm just playing.
• 34:07
  It's the beauty of everyone.
• 34:08
  I'm not angry.
• 34:09
  No, but I guess, yeah.
• 34:11
  So when should you have sold?
• 34:13
  And look, I think it's very easy to say you should have sold then or you should have sold
• 34:17
  then.
• 34:18
  I think this is why diversification, not diversification.
• 34:21
  Diversification is really good.
• 34:23
  Because, you know, if you had put all your eggs in this basket, you would have really been crying.
• 34:30
  Yeah, it's so easy to say, oh, well, they shouldn't have done all of this.
• 34:32
  It's like, of course, they were going to.
• 34:33
  They wanted to grow.
• 34:34
  But I think IPOs in general should only be a tiny portion of your portfolio, because they
• 34:39
  don't have a record.
• 34:40
  They don't have a history of public financials that you can go and you can look at, like Apple
• 34:47
  and be like, well, they've actually grown their profits year on year on year.
• 34:51
  They're stable, they're consistent.
• 34:53
  You know, if they do have a wobble, I know that they're going to probably come back.
• 34:59
  You know, whereas this, it's just such a new business and new as a new public company.
• 35:07
  So, I think it's just realising IPOs are risky.
• 35:10
  It's way more of a gamble than it is buying the stock market, I think.
• 35:13
  If you think, I can't buy IPOs when things are doing really well, you know?
• 35:18
  Like the chances of them doing really, really, really well so that you make a really great
• 35:23
  profit on that.
• 35:24
  It's probably much lower than buying an existing company.
• 35:28
  I would rather wait five years for a business and then jump in, or at least a couple of years
• 35:34
  and they've hit their targets and they show consistent delivery and then I can get comfortable.
• 35:40
  There's just too many other things to invest in that are way less, you know, giving me
• 35:45
  great years than IPOs.
• 35:47
  I mean, I do feel like I slightly have a bit of remorse for how many I've been about
• 35:52
  talking about that a lot for me and I think it's really, it's a good thing to do with
• 35:58
  that, because I think it would be really sad to have put this much time and energy and money into building a
• 36:02
  business for itself or what it has.
• 36:03
  So, I've really, really hoped no one that works at what owns all words, listens to this podcast.
• 36:06
  Yeah. You're right, there's a human element to it.
• 36:09
  There's so easy to say here in the stores.
• 36:10
  What shows are ugly, it's like, yeah, well, like, has any other designers
• 36:16
  shown and built a 40 billion or 40 billion dollar company know?
• 36:17
  And I think if you are sitting there and you have medicine or birds and you have lost money,
• 36:21
  like the best thing you can do now is literally sit down with a piece of paper and write down
• 36:27
  what your learnings from there have been. I love that.
• 36:30
  And what you won't do next time. Because otherwise, if you don't learn from your mistakes,
• 36:35
  it's kind of, it's going to cost you way more because you probably make this mistakes again.
• 36:38
  So it's like just sitting down. I will also say about that. I think that's such a cool idea.
• 36:43
  And if it were a pen and paper is something I don't often see, I like a little journal
• 36:48
  reflection. However, also investing in the stock market, and there's all what you're always
• 36:55
  going to have in all birds' scenario where you have lost money, I think the worst thing
• 36:59
  is to beat yourself up about a mistake you made like this and then be put off making
• 37:04
  investment decisions or feeling like, oh, I thought that was going to be a good one,
• 37:08
  and now I've failed and feel less confident in investing in things. But it is risky to make
• 37:14
  bets on some stocks. And unless you are at a really experienced investor, I don't think you should
• 37:19
  be putting a huge amount of money into investing opportunities like this. You want to be super
• 37:24
  diversified. So if all birds falls off a cliff like it has, you're not sitting there,
• 37:29
  feeling quite sorry for yourself. So if you have ballad and it didn't do well, like you kind of
• 37:33
  just have to be like, well, this is sort of, it's almost like not to break back to dating,
• 37:38
  but it kind of is you're going to be rejected, you're going to get heartbroken, you're going to go
• 37:42
  through like the fucking extreme anxieties of like, are they going to text me back? But that's also
• 37:46
  the risk of dating. And if you have nothing else going on in your life, then it can be a lot.
• 37:51
  It can be all-consuming, yeah. That's all right. I've got some great friendship job and a
• 37:55
  lot of love. Yeah. Whereas investing, it's like investing, you are going to lose money,
• 38:00
  you are going to have disasters like this. It's just part of it. You're also going to have
• 38:03
  big wins. Yeah, exactly. It's like if you've got 30 stocks in your investments or whatever,
• 38:08
  in a fund that you invest in, one doesn't go well, you know, it's not the end of the world. Yeah.
• 38:13
  There's an exciting new space that we're going to look at right now because there is a business
• 38:18
  doing super well. I'm quite excited about this, like not just this business, but this whole
• 38:24
  industry. And we just see how NBC and IPOs is risky. And exciting one coming called Woop.
• 38:34
  To me, it's almost the fitness bro signal. You know, one that has one is probably doing high rocks
• 38:43
  has potentially done that like 50, 30, whatever it is when you do like so many exercises in one way
• 38:49
  or I remember hearing this on the diaries year podcast, like two years ago. And I was like,
• 38:53
  what does it work? Because they're quite ugly as well. Like they don't actually display anything on
• 38:58
  their screen. All of their data is like sucked into their app. So it's not, it just looks like a random
• 39:03
  blade. Well, you don't pay for it. You pay just a subscription. So you get the watch for free,
• 39:08
  essentially. I mean, it's genius. Whereas an Apple watch you pay for. Yeah. Because I think the
• 39:13
  difference with Woop and the big reason that I think it's doing well and it's kind of got this
• 39:18
  USP or like, you know, thing that sets it aside is that they really focused on like sports recovery.
• 39:25
  Yeah. And and so all of these big sports people like LeBron James were fronting it. And so
• 39:32
  all these kind of fitness bros were like, oh, this is the best way to track my recovery in my body
• 39:36
  and blah, blah, blah. If you've got athletes that are backing it, it's like, yeah, yeah, they've
• 39:39
  been pretty clever. But it's just been valued at 10 billion. It's going to IPO in two years
• 39:44
  approximately. I mean, in 2021, it was valued at about three and a half billion. So it's
• 39:49
  absolutely killing it. It's also, but it's also, it's the third, like, small, third biggest
• 39:57
  player. So you've got Apple Watch is like dominating kind of in the kind of wearables space.
• 40:02
  Yeah. Then you've got that Aurora, Aurora, sorry, Aurora, the Aurora. Yeah. Yeah.
• 40:10
  And they really want them to be cooler. Like, if they can make their designs,
• 40:14
  might not look so ugly, I would absolutely get one. I know. It's like a wedding band in all
• 40:18
  bands, wedding bands. It looks like my dad's wedding. Yeah. It's big and titanium looking.
• 40:23
  Like, if you could just put a few diamonds on it. Yeah. Thank you.
• 40:28
  Oh my god. I mean, that would be a really cool innovation in the space is to have really
• 40:34
  gorgeous wearable jewelry that appeals to a woman that has the same technology benefits.
• 40:39
  Yeah. I think that's that's it, right? Like, it doesn't really. I had it fit bit for a while.
• 40:45
  That's right. And it's just ugly. It's so ugly. It looks like a prison bracelet.
• 40:50
  And you're like a, and you have to wear it all the time. So you'd go out for dinner and it's like,
• 40:55
  yeah, it's just, yeah. But anyway, this is a, this is a space that's growing wearables,
• 40:59
  the wearable space. It's expected to grow from 200 billion this year to about one trillion dollar
• 41:06
  market in nine years time. So that's about 20% growth a year. So this is a massive space.
• 41:13
  And it's kind of what we're talking about last week around people being way more involved in
• 41:18
  their health and wellness, wanting to extend their life, wanting to be more active, worry about
• 41:23
  their sleep more. You know, like, they're wanting to have control of all facets and make sure,
• 41:28
  like, okay, cool. I'm not sleeping well. What can I do about that? Yeah. Yeah.
• 41:31
  I actually think that there's also almost like a deeper trend, which is people are trying to go
• 41:37
  for prevention when it comes to health, rather than reaction. And that looks like getting full
• 41:44
  body scans. That means getting regular bloods. That means being really across what's happening
• 41:48
  within your body so that you can spot things before they're problematic. And I think that's
• 41:53
  amazing. You know, if you can be investing in people's health so that they aren't having to treat
• 41:58
  these awful illnesses, but actually spotting them incredibly early. How amazing.
• 42:03
  Totally. There should be government funding for these. There's two and a half million people
• 42:08
  that use WHOPE 8 and they log in eight times a day. I mean, those stats are enormous. Also,
• 42:15
  think about the amount of data. Totally. They have like a hundred megabytes of data per person,
• 42:21
  per day, being uploaded. Think about the insights that you're getting from two and a half
• 42:25
  million people. Imagine the network effects and like the people that would want to work with you
• 42:30
  and the brands that want to work with you, because they'd have access to all that data. You know?
• 42:34
  They're also surely just selling that data or using it in health technology and research.
• 42:38
  Totally. Could actually fast track funding. But imagine like a sleep, I'm not a sleep
• 42:42
  improvement pill or whatever, and they go to work and they know exactly who needs help with this
• 42:48
  product. Like creating that kind of network effect with a business and having that data,
• 42:53
  you're right, it's the data. Having that data and then being able to create this network effect
• 42:57
  is like so incredibly powerful. It's like zero. And you'll think to someone's body, you know?
• 43:03
  Yeah. It's this so much in depth, personal information. Like if you think about what happened
• 43:09
  with the flow app and they leaked all that data, it was like a business that was founded by men
• 43:14
  and it was this whole thing that happened, not that long ago actually. But this isn't just
• 43:18
  zooming into a woman's menstrual cycle data. This isn't someone's like almost entire body,
• 43:23
  like their heart rate, their like it's like blood biomarkers, like it's intense, the amount
• 43:30
  of information they have. Yeah. Like I'd be a bit frustrated though, be like, okay,
• 43:34
  cool, I didn't sleep well. Like how do I sleep better? I want to sleep better tomorrow.
• 43:39
  Well maybe that's their part too, is to be able to almost create products that solve the issues
• 43:45
  that people are seeing from a health perspective. Yeah. Like we've noticed that you are experiencing
• 43:49
  XYZ here as a product from where to face it. Yeah. It's because you had a market reader before
• 43:53
  you went to bed. You know, like that kind of stuff. We're like, okay, cool, good to know.
• 43:57
  More. Yeah. God, I'm excited by the space because it feels and then imagine,
• 44:01
  overlaying AI. Yeah. We're like, okay, well how do I turn into LeBron James?
• 44:08
  Right. But we've hit an email from someone in the community that we wanted to read out.
• 44:12
  Did you have anything else that you wanted to talk about before? Just quickly another IPO.
• 44:17
  SpaceX announced today. I saw this. They are going to IPO. And this is the biggest IPO ever.
• 44:24
  Did you predict this? Was this in your productions? Was this mine? Was yours? It's Victor Harris.
• 44:30
  I saw it and I thought, was this my production? I don't know. I think it was. I think it might have been.
• 44:34
  I think it might. But they're going to raise $75 billion and they will have a market cap.
• 44:41
  So it's like the size of the company will be 1.8 trillion trillion dollars.
• 44:45
  It's been done to any more. I know. It's a gazillion and a gazillion. But it'll be the
• 44:51
  sixth biggest company. So we've got Apple, Nvidia, Google.
• 44:54
  God, talk about starting strong. I know. Just go straight to the top.
• 44:58
  I'll go to the top of the list. And it's IPO and June, which is Elon's birthday.
• 45:05
  And because it's a space company, it's like there's some alignment with the stars and shit.
• 45:09
  I'm like, oh my god. I mean, I would do that too if I was about to IPO the biggest company in the
• 45:14
  world. I did on my birthday. I'd be like, I'll come on to any thing. I think the idea of being
• 45:19
  able to invest in a company that is doing stuff in space is kind of exciting to me.
• 45:23
  Yeah. The last company, the last biggest IPO was a $30 billion company in 2019.
• 45:30
  Who was that? Saudi America. It's like an oil company. And then now,
• 45:35
  SpaceX 1.3 trillion. 1.8 trillion. Oh god, I've put such a bad memory. Yeah. Wild.
• 45:41
  Yeah, crazy. It does kind of scare me. Like to suck out $75 billion of money from somewhere,
• 45:49
  from other stocks to invest in this. You know how we spoke about? I know you say this,
• 45:54
  but it's really weird because I don't know why for me. I'm like, is it coming from where people
• 46:00
  are invested in other stocks or is it just people that haven't invested before find more money to
• 46:05
  invest? Well, it's hard to know. But like, if I have my 30 stocks that I invest in or my fund
• 46:13
  even or whatever it is, and that's $100 a month, and then I want to invest in this IPO, and I put
• 46:20
  even $20 of that a month into this IPO, that's $20 I'm not putting across those previous investments
• 46:28
  that I made. And, you know, it's less money going into those investments because I covered a new one
• 46:32
  that I want to invest in. But isn't it just part of the cycle of investing people buy and sell and
• 46:36
  re-allocate it? Yeah, it's just you do, you do see it, like we've never had an IPO this big,
• 46:41
  so it'll be interesting to see what happens, but you do see it in a smaller sense, like in the New
• 46:46
  Zealand stock market, if there's a big capital raise or a company raising money, it does suck out
• 46:52
  of some other companies, or the market's just a bit lackluster. But that's a very small market,
• 46:58
  so I don't know, it'll be interesting. This is also a global interest, so. Where are they IPLN?
• 47:06
  In the US. On what? I don't know. There's been very secretive about their company filings,
• 47:12
  and like they don't have to show their financials. As you've got invite to Elon's party,
• 47:16
  pretty much, there's an opportunity buying the exchange that takes that IPO,
• 47:22
  because the fee you would get, and the broker doing the deal, like it'll be, yeah.
• 47:27
  Do you mean if you were investing and say the Nasdaq as the actual exchange, or the S&B 500 as
• 47:32
  the exchange? Yeah, not the Nasdaq or the New York stock exchange, yeah. So the S&P 500 has the
• 47:40
  index, and that has 500 companies that sit on the Nasdaq and the New York stock exchange,
• 47:45
  but they would be fighting tooth and nail to get this listing. So you could invest in both of those,
• 47:50
  like the Nasdaq and the New York stock exchange, who would get it, because it surely would be in the US.
• 47:56
  Yes, yeah. And that's like 75 billion of like new money, or some of it might be existing coming
• 48:02
  from other stocks, but it's interest, it's money, it's more trades, it's more interest on your stock
• 48:07
  exchange, and if it does well, then other companies will be like, well, space-extred well on the Nasdaq,
• 48:14
  so I like obesity, yeah. I wonder if you want the F over Trump by not putting it up there,
• 48:20
  because it is going to, you know, positively impact their use economy. But then if you put it on
• 48:26
  the London Stock Exchange, it's not going so far. Yeah. Okay, I really want to move on to the
• 48:30
  email from the community. Okay, so we've got an email from Frankie. Here's all something that I've
• 48:34
  always wondered in the back of my mind, and now it seems like the perfect time since my stocks are
• 48:38
  tanking. Just to give you a little bit of background, I invest solely through Shazies with a mix of
• 48:44
  ETFs, S&P 500, and various other intentional directions of that. I also have exposure to some
• 48:51
  singular stocks and companies like Alphabet and Commodities like Gold, very clever, starting
• 48:56
  to be smart. Very diversified. Love it. Oh, she does say. So I would say I'm pretty diversified.
• 49:02
  Agreed. I have noticed that my portfolio has halved in terms of percent return since all this
• 49:07
  drama has unfolded in the world, and it got me wondering, what is a good return when it comes to
• 49:11
  a portfolio, or is this irrelevant and should be ignored? Love you girls, you're the best, Frankie.
• 49:16
  She's probably seeing the stock markets haven't fallen as much. By 50% but hers has. Yes, and I think,
• 49:22
  like when you say you've got a commodity like Gold, Gold has moved a lot, and there's some single
• 49:28
  stocks in there, which it's hard when you don't know the percentage of what's in your single
• 49:33
  stocks, what's in ETFs, what ETFs you have. But I think this is well diversified. I think she should
• 49:39
  be really happy with what she's got in there, like having a bit of commodities, having some ETFs,
• 49:43
  having some US exposure with S&P 500, and then some individual stocks that she's obviously
• 49:49
  really likes, like Alphabet, which is Google. What is a good return when it comes to your portfolio?
• 49:55
  It totally depends what you invest in. You know, if you just invest in some really boring companies
• 50:01
  or a lot of ETFs which are well diversified, you're not going to have these really high returns
• 50:07
  and these really low returns, whereas if you just invest in a few single stocks, you can have
• 50:11
  much more volatile portfolio. But all we can go off is the US stock market return, which is about 10%
• 50:18
  return per year. So if you're achieving around that, but that's over the long term. So you're
• 50:24
  dealing with all this drama happening and it's not at 10%, it's on negative. That's kind of normal.
• 50:29
  Yeah, it's kind of normal. And I think that's really important is that there will be short-term
• 50:34
  movements in EVA runs portfolios. And if you've got a great selection like she does and you are
• 50:41
  well diversified, your portfolio will go up more than the general stock market return when things
• 50:47
  and when those certain things are doing well. But it will also go down more than the general
• 50:53
  stock market return. So it's so hard to know. And yeah, there's just like so many different things
• 50:58
  that play, but there is also another thing in here, which is currency. So if I look at this,
• 51:05
  I don't know with what ETFs she's invested in, but I'm assuming like S&P 500, that's all US
• 51:10
  companies. So US dollar investments, Alphabet, US dollar investment. So what you're seeing in terms
• 51:16
  of the return from those US stocks will be one thing, but your return won't be exactly that
• 51:22
  because you're paying for the currency exchange as well. Well, say the return of those has been
• 51:28
  12%, but the currency has moved in the opposite direction. So it's so you're now when you convert
• 51:35
  the US dollars to New Zealand dollars, you're getting less. Your return in New Zealand dollars might
• 51:40
  be 10%. So you've got, yes, you've gone up 10, but the currency has kind of moved against you and
• 51:46
  fallen. So you've got, you're making negative 2% return. So your overall returns to 10%.
• 51:53
  It could and it could also move the other way, right? Then you could have, you could be up 10%
• 51:57
  and then the currency works in your favor and you've got another 2%. So you've got 12% return
• 52:02
  overall. Like it's, the currency is a thing you kind of, you're paying for, you're paying for a lot
• 52:08
  also with it because you're not, it's not just what you're paying for within the stock market and
• 52:11
  the things you own. There's also, yeah, if you're on Shizu's, there's a percentage of that that
• 52:15
  they'll take, you know, you have to look at the overarching breakdown. And that's why we say
• 52:19
  the least you can like trade the better, the better, if you can auto invest, do it once, you know,
• 52:24
  and invest across all companies or ETFs or whatever you're investing in great, the more you try and
• 52:30
  time the market and jump in an hour and exchange money, like you get charged to fee when you exchange
• 52:34
  money and when you do trades as well on Shizu's. So it's just really important to realize any very
• 52:40
  platform is different, but there is no platform that doesn't charge fees because they're doing
• 52:45
  your service. So if there is a platform that's like, we've got no commission or we've got no,
• 52:50
  like there'll be fees in other places. So it's just a really good reminder.
• 52:53
  Okay, I want to say something else on this. I think the fact that you are looking at the
• 52:58
  percentage return, firstly awesome, great that you're involved and also you're connecting the dots
• 53:03
  between what is happening within your investment and seeing what's happening in the more like
• 53:07
  geopolitical global, there's so many things going on. So you're obviously recognising the fact that
• 53:13
  what's happening in your portfolio is a direct reflection of what was happening globally. I think
• 53:19
  it's really amazing when you can feel like you have a grasp on what is going on. Yeah. To give you
• 53:26
  almost like the answers to the why, it doesn't necessarily mean you need to make a decision. I think
• 53:32
  you're obviously diversified, which is amazing. But for me, when I feel like I know what's going on
• 53:37
  in the economy, it then means that if I see an investment doing something, it makes sense to me.
• 53:42
  Yeah. Because we were just talking earlier in this podcast around like when should you sell?
• 53:47
  Obviously, if you were just looking at the return, you may be thinking, God, it's like half,
• 53:51
  that's not good. Maybe I should think about selling, but actually if you're aware of what's
• 53:55
  happening in the bigger picture globally, you know that this is a short term situation. Yeah.
• 54:00
  It doesn't mean you have to make a decision, but I think just being informed and educated
• 54:04
  helps to make you feel like a more confident investor. Well, I know it does for me. Yeah.
• 54:08
  Definitely. We wanted to ask the community a quick question before we end this episode. And
• 54:12
  that is, we've been talking about this a little bit. We've got a bit of a change of scheduling.
• 54:17
  I hate that I say scheduling, not scheduling. I think how... Did we decide in a name?
• 54:22
  I... Yeah. Can I put my vote in? So for anyone that doesn't know what's going on,
• 54:26
  we're talking about the fact that we are actually increasing our episodes soon to have two
• 54:32
  curve weeklies and one race in the curve every week. And we're trying to find names,
• 54:36
  we're trying to vote on what days there should be a release. And we kind of wanted to involve
• 54:39
  all of our listeners in those decisions. So Vick's talking about the name because we were trying
• 54:43
  to ask who has good ideas and so many have come through. But I'm not, I'm not so lonely.
• 54:48
  I think we can, we can, we continue. There was one that came through that was like you've
• 54:52
  built an incredible brand around the curve weekly and you just keep it that because it could be
• 54:56
  biweekly, it could be... Do we shut biweekly? No, we just said the curve weekly,
• 55:00
  like it's still a podcast that comes out on a weekly basis.
• 55:03
  Twice weekly? Is that fine? Maybe we should. I'm not the curve weekly.
• 55:06
  Yeah, like it doesn't matter if it comes out five times a week, it's still weekly.
• 55:10
  You know, like it's... I think at that point, we call it daily, surely.
• 55:13
  Yeah, but like I kind of was like, yeah, why are we... Yes, so my vote is we keep it the curve weekly.
• 55:18
  I kind of agree. I'm kind of, I love the curve weekly.
• 55:21
  Yeah. Okay, we'll park that. Yeah.
• 55:23
  The thing we wanted to ask was we're planning, because most people are interested in news,
• 55:27
  we think on more on weekdays. You're not really going to be sitting in bed on a Saturday morning
• 55:31
  listening to the curve weekly, I can't imagine. So our thoughts were to release them on Mondays,
• 55:35
  like we do normally, and Wednesday, and then move our Thursday race in the curve episode to Fridays,
• 55:42
  because it's more, those are more like interview style and more conversational. You can kind of,
• 55:46
  it's probably more of a Friday lesson. We have so much consistency. People listen on Monday
• 55:50
  and Thursday, so we didn't know if we moved things around to a Monday, Wednesday, Friday,
• 55:54
  if that's going to throw people. My question is, if we released episodes Monday, Wednesday, Friday,
• 56:01
  instead of... That's what we're saying.
• 56:03
  Is that going to throw people off? Is this going to be a blow out for anyone?
• 56:07
  So we're going to put a vote in the podcast description. Can you let us know?
• 56:12
  Because we don't want to change anything and be annoying. I hope everyone has had a really good
• 56:17
  Easter. I mean, that's obviously Easter Monday. So what if you're doing, I hope you're having
• 56:21
  amazing time with family and friends eating lots of chocolate. And oh, we do have a really great
• 56:27
  episode coming out on Thursday with Danielle, who's an expert in the crypto space. So if you're
• 56:33
  wanting to know everything about how should you invest, when should you invest, what you should
• 56:37
  you invest in? She is amazing. And when we recorded this episode, I think I messaged everyone
• 56:42
  in the curve team and like, guys, crypto, oh my god, classic me getting excited,
• 56:47
  but a really cool episode. So keep an eye out for that later this week. Bye!
• 56:51
  Happy Easter! Thank you so much for listening to The Curve Weekly.
• 56:54
  Make sure you hit subscribe or follow wherever you're listening. So you're always up to date
• 56:58
  with the latest finance and investing news. And feel free to leave a comment to let us know what
• 57:01
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• 57:30
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