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Denmark's Diplomatic Ties with the EU - A Focus on the Current Relationship · Diplomacy and International Relations

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  Welcome to Diplomacy and International Relations by
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  Bastian Freiburg. If you're someone who always
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  You'll find the link for that right in the description.
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  Today we are looking at a, well, a genuine sea change in European
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  politics. We're talking about the
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  transformation of Denmark. For decades, they were kind of
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  the poster child for EU skepticism, you know, with their
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  opt outs, treating Brussels with a lot of distance.
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  But now, now they're embracing the European core.
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  And they're even leading the EU Council presidency from July to
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  December 2025 as one of the bloc's most proactive members.
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  It is a stunning pivot, and I think what makes this
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  exploration so interesting is that we're looking at a shift
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  that isn't really driven by ideology.
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  No, not at all. It's driven by, well, by brute
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  geopolitical pragmatism and the public opinion numbers, they
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  really back this up. You've got 66% of dames who now
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  believe the EU's role is going to become more important.
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  Wow. And that just, it dramatically
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  eclipses the EU average, which is only some 4%.
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  This isn't some slow cultural shift.
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  It's a direct reaction to Russia's invasion of Ukraine
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  and, you know, the whole changing security landscape.
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  That's right. It's a rapid recalculation of
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  their national interest. So our mission today is to
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  unpack the priorities of this Danish presidency.
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  We're going to focus on how Denmark is using its newfound
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  engagement to shape the future of European security,
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  competitiveness and, of course, climate policy.
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  We really need to understand not just what they're doing, but why
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  this shift is so powerful right now.
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  OK, so let's start with that cultural shift because it really
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  is seismic. For generations, the political
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  shorthand in Copenhagen for any, you know, distant bureaucratic
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  European decision was down in Brussels.
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  It just signified something foreign, complex, and probably
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  not in Denmark's best interest. That phrase down in Brussels, it
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  was a rhetorical tool. It was all about maintaining
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  distance, reinforcing a Danish identity against, you know, the
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  EU machine. It was a sign of political
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  control. So when Prime Minister met,
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  Frederickson recently declared that down in Brussels is now
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  precisely where Denmark finds its closest partners right, and
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  where its security and prosperity are secured.
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  Well, that was more than just a speech.
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  It was the formal burial of four decades of careful Danish
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  distance. And the ultimate proof of that
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  burial, a real defining moment, was the defense pivot.
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  Absolutely. The decision to abolish their
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  defense opt out was the watershed event.
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  I mean, this opt out had been a foundational piece of their EU
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  relationship since 1993. It allowed them to avoid
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  participating in EU military operations, defense development,
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  all of that. But in June 2022, Danish voters
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  didn't just agree to change it. They overwhelmingly supported
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  full participation in the common security and Defense policy, the
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  CSDP, with a staggering 66.9% of the vote.
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  And that's a record. It's the largest Yes vote margin
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  in any Danish EU referendum ever.
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  OK, I think we need to slow down a little on the the alphabet
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  soup of defense organizations because this is where the
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  practical impact really hits home.
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  What did that vote actually allow Denmark to do right away?
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  Well, it opened the door to military collaboration, to
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  procurement synergy. Almost immediately, Denmark
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  joined the European Defense Agency, the EDA.
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  That was in March 2023. OK at the.
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  EDA and the EDA is the EU's hub for coordinating defense
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  cooperation, capability development, all that research
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  stuff. Then just a couple of months
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  later, in May 2023, they join PESCO.
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  And PESCO for anyone listening who needs the technical side.
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  What does joining that mean? PESCO is essentially A
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  structural commitment. Participating states agree to
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  collaboratively plan, develop, and invest in joint defense
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  projects. So it moves beyond simple
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  cooperation to, you know, actual integrated capability building.
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  So things like joint drone surveillance or something?
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  Exactly or common logistics hubs.
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  By joining, Denmark went from being a neutral bystander to an
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  active partner in building Europe's future military muscle
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  and this translated into action fast.
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  They contributed a helicopter doctor to Operation Althea in
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  Bosnia and Herzegovina. That was their first EU LED
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  military operation since the opt out was lifted.
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  And crucially, this isn't just about policy changes.
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  It's backed by some unprecedented investors.
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  Oh, absolutely. That's the most tangible signal
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  of their commitment. Denmark allocated 190 billion
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  Danish kroner, roughly €25 billion, through its new defense
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  agreement for 2024 to 2033. And this investment is
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  explicitly dual purpose, strengthening contributions to
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  both NATO and the EU and making sure they permanently meet that
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  crucial NATO 2% of GDP target by 20-30.
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  OK, so let's talk about the specific geopolitical drivers
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  because Ukraine is clearly the, well, the central emotional and
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  political catalyst here. The level of Danish support is
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  just extraordinary. It truly is.
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  Denmark has committed something like €9 billion in military
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  support. And another what, €927,000,000
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  in civilian contributions? Just massive numbers.
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  And when you measure that relative to GDP, it puts Denmark
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  second in the entire EU, just behind Estonia.
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  They have completely bought into the idea that Ukraine's survival
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  is Europe's security. And this isn't just about aid.
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  It's now driving the very core of their presidency agenda.
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  Exactly. The presidency has explicitly
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  framed Ukraine's EU accession as a geopolitical necessity.
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  They're arguing that enlargement has to be accelerated to
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  stabilize Eastern Europe and, you know, secure the continents
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  flank against Russia. This commitment is so deep that
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  a poll from March 2025 had this truly shocking finding.
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  What was that? 46% of Danes said they would
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  accept Ukraine as an EU member even if it failed to meet all
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  the formal membership requirements.
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  Wow, from a country like Denmark, that's huge.
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  That level of flexibility from a traditionally rigorous rules
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  based state, it just speaks volumes about the perceived
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  threat level. And on the flip side of
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  supporting Ukraine, of course, is the challenge of containing
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  Russia. That's a major pillar of their
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  security agenda. Their goal is maximum pressure.
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  The presidency is committed to driving forward the toughest
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  possible sanctions against Russia.
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  They're focused on closing loopholes, preventing
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  circumvention, which is, you know, notoriously difficult.
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  And a specific priority is tackling this contentious
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  Russian shadow fleet. The Shadow Fleet?
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  Tell us more about that. It sounds like something out of
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  a spy novel, but what is it? And why is a major maritime
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  nation like Denmark so focused on it?
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  Well, the Russian shadow fleet, it's this vast, aging and pretty
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  much unregulated collection of tankers.
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  They often operate under flags of convenience, and they
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  transport Russian oil all over the globe, frequently bypassing
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  Western sanctions and insurance regulations.
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  And because Denmark controls the shipping lanes through the
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  Baltic Sea, the Danish straits, they're acutely aware of the
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  risk this fleet poses, both environmentally and politically.
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  So for them, it's a direct threat.
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  It is tackling it is crucial for effective sanctions enforcement
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  and maritime security, and Denmark is determined to lead
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  that charge. OK, now let's revisit that
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  fascinating strategic implication you mentioned
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  earlier. This huge defense push, this
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  commitment to EU military capability, it seems to be built
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  on what politicians are calling a Plan A and a Plan B.
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  Yes, and this is the core insight into the whole shift.
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  Yeah, Plan A is the long standing European strategy,
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  right? Massively increased defense
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  spending to secure continued US commitment to NATO and Europe.
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  Basically you pay up so the US doesn't leave.
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  But the sources we're looking at suggest that Plan B is becoming
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  the new baseline reality. And Plan B is.
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  Plan B is the necessary recognition that if the US
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  commitment falters, or if America becomes unreliable
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  because of its own domestic politics or, as the sources
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  note, geopolitical friction like that earthquake caused by the US
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  threat over Greenland. Right, that was a huge deal.
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  A huge deal. It fractured trust.
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  That whole tension fundamentally accelerated Denmark's pivot
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  towards European defence autonomy.
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  So Plan B is that EU member states have to drastically and
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  rapidly increase their capabilities to act alone,
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  possibly without US support. The Danish mindset has clearly
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  shifted from relying on the US to building up the EU as a
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  sovereign insurance policy. That reframing is monumental,
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  seeing the EU as a necessary security alternative, not just
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  an economic club. But while security is dominating
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  the headlines, we can't forget the original bedrock of this
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  relationship. So let's shift focus to the
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  economy. It remains the strongest tie to
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  the EU. What are the fundamentals that
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  make the EU so indispensable to Copenhagen?
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  The numbers are just stark. Denmark is a small open economy
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  and the single market is it's, well, it's circulatory system.
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  Around 42% of all Danish exports, which is DKK 869
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  billion in 2024, go directly to other EU member States.
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  That's massive economic reliance.
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  It is an analysis suggests the single market has increased
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  Danish GDP by a full 5%. It supports over half a million
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  Danish jobs. Any disruption to the single
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  market hits Denmark hard and fast.
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  So it makes perfect sense that presidency is so focused on
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  European competitiveness. How are they planning to do that
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  though, beyond just saying it's a goal?
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  Well, as a highly regulated but extremely efficient economy,
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  Denmark believes the fastest way to boost European
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  competitiveness isn't necessarily through massive new
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  spending. It's through what they call
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  better regulation. This means prioritizing impact
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  assessments to really gauge the burden of new EU laws, reducing
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  overall bureaucratic red tape, and just streamlining the rules
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  for internal trade. Their perspective is that of a
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  successful small trading nation. You reduce internal barriers,
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  make it easier to do business, and Europe can compete globally
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  with powers like the US and China.
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  That focus on efficiency is classic Danish pragmatism, just
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  applied at the EU level. OK, let's transition to the
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  third pillar, the green transition.
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  This is an area where Denmark really positions itself as a
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  natural leader. Oh, they absolutely have the
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  credentials. Domestically, their targets are
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  incredibly aggressive. A 70% cut in greenhouse gas
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  emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. 70% and full
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  climate neutrality by 2040. Five.
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  They see climate action not just as an environmental goal, but as
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  an industrial and security strategy.
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  And how does that domestic ambition translate into their EU
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  presidency agenda? What policies are they pushing?
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  They're actively leading the negotiations to establish the
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  EU's legally binding target to cut emissions by 90% by 2040.
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  And crucially, they're leveraging their national
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  expertise. Denmark is a global leader in
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  maritime shipping. You know, Maersk is Danish and
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  an offshore wind. So their presidency is shaping
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  the implementation of these targets by focusing on
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  decarbonizing these hard to abate sectors, driving
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  investment into green tech, and framing the whole green shift as
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  essential for energy independence from Russia.
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  So it's all connected. It's a completely integrated
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  strategy. Climate action equals security
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  equals economic strength. If we connect all these threads,
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  the security pivot, the economic push, the green goals, it really
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  sounds like Denmark has completely transformed its
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  institutional approach. It's moved from a country
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  dedicated to keeping its distance to one that's actively
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  seeking influence at the very core.
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  That's the perfect summary of the transformation.
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  They've gone from institutional skepticism to active political
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  leadership. But, and this is important, it's
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  vital to acknowledge the limits of this pragmatic integration.
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  This is not a rush to a federalist United States of
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  Europe. So what are those specific
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  limits? There are still three major opt
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  outs remaining. Correct.
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  The three big ones are the monetary union, so the euro,
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  justice and Home Affairs, and citizenship.
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  And while Denmark does participate in the European
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  Exchange Rate Mechanism, the ERM 2, which links their currency to
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  the euro, public support for actually adopting the euro is
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  still pretty limited. And the Justice and Home Affairs
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  opt out the Jha one that's critical.
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  What does that Jha opt out actually entail for the average
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  citizen? Well, essentially it means
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  Denmark doesn't automatically participate in EU policies
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  covering things like police cooperation, migration, asylum
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  and civil law. This separation reflects a very
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  deep seated national desire to maintain control over their
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  borders and their judicial sovereignty.
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  So it's very pragmatic. Exactly the fact that the
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  defense opt out was removed but Jha and the Euro opt outs
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  remain. It perfectly illustrates that
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  Danish support is based on national interest, trade and
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  defense, not some ideological commitment to full political
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  union. That brings up an important
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  question. Denmark historically was part of
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  the fiscally conservative Frugal 4.
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  Yes, this new security agenda requires massive collective
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  financial investment. Is Denmark's traditional
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  position on budget restraint going to create friction during
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  its presidency? It creates a major tension .1
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  they'll have to manage very delicately.
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  The Frugal 4 usually includes states like the Netherlands,
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  Austria, Swing nations that prioritize budget discipline.
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  And Denmark was a core member. A staunch member, but now with
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  the war in Ukraine and the need for independent EU defense, they
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  are pushing for major collective investment.
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  Which means embracing new EU financial mechanisms, and that
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  must go against the frugal grain.
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  Absolutely. Does they have to reconcile this
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  fiscal conservatism with the urgent need for defense
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  spending. For instance, they now have to
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  support mechanisms like the Security Action for Europe loan,
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  which lets the EU borrow collectively to fund defense
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  initiatives, balancing their historic demand for budget
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  restraint against the geopolitical necessity of
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  spending big on security, while also managing enlargement
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  tensions like concerns over agricultural competition with
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  Ukraine. That will be the defining test
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  of their diplomatic skill during this presidency.
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  So what does this all mean for the future of the EU?
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  I think the core take away is that Denmark's transition, one
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  of the most significant shifts in modern EU politics, was
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  driven by external shocks, the war in Ukraine and the shifting
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  security partnership with the United States.
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  They didn't change because of some ideological awakening, but
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  because of a hard, pragmatic recalculation of where their
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  security and prosperity truly lie.
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  They are fully engaged because they realize their national
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  interests are now best served at the very core of the block.
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  And that pragmatic success offers a really powerful model.
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  Denmark didn't sacrifice its sovereignty.
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  It leveraged its domestic strengths and defense and
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  climate policy combined it with a sharp strategic commitment and
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  gain significant influence. And this raises A provocative
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  thought for you to consider. Given the successful maneuver,
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  what lessons does this Danish model offer for other small or
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  medium sized member states? You know, countries like
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  Ireland, Portugal or the Baltics who are all navigating that
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  difficult balance between maintaining their national
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  sovereignty and pursuing necessary deep European
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  cooperation. That is a fantastic question to
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  leave you with. It really gets to the heart of
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  what a modern EU nation state looks like.
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  This has been a fascinating exploration of Denmark's
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  dramatic diplomatic transformation.
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  Thank you for joining us for this analysis.
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  If you enjoyed this conversation, please make sure
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  We'll be back soon with another exploration of global events.