Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Global Margin Call?📈Japan Fleeing to On-Chain Yields🚀

Transcript

Global Margin Call?📈Japan Fleeing to On-Chain Yields🚀 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Are we nearing a global margin called Japan of courses
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: in the news. We'll break it down for you today
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: and why it matters to you in the crypto market.
• 0:07
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  Speaker 1: there and make your first trade on BTCC a good
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  Speaker 1: place to go. Let's get into a couple of points
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: I want to hit on the market though here as
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: of today is starting to resurrect a little bit.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: This of course is eth as we start.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: To see a pretty significant comeback on ETH after hitting
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: around twenty six hundred and twenty seven hundred here recently,
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: now at almost thirty four hundred on the day, So
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: keep an eye right now eth up seven percent this
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: week going into the FOMC. I want to also show
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: something here because this is a big deal. Bank of
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Japan decision in December right now looks like we are
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: going to get an increase. And if you think about
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the United States of what we're looking at, which is
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: a decrease, and the Bank of Japan saying nope, we
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: are going to start to unwind this and we're going
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: with an increase in interest, this course changes things pretty dramatically.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: So is a global margin call coming? How the Bank
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: of Japan of course could hike and trigger the next
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: market shock. This is what everybody is watching right now.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: There's a few clips I'll get to here in a second.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Because the Bank of Deion Bank of Japan's decision happens
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: on December the eighteenth, So think about that.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: This week, you've got the Fed.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Getting ready to go into on December tenth a decision
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: on a quarter basis point rate cut.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Now you have eight.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: Days later, nine days later, the BOJ coming in saying
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: if we do this, this is what's going to happen.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And of course you can kind of see if we
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: see a hike, this is the kind of unwind potential
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: that we could see on the carry trade. And this
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: is the problem because most of these carry trades, of course,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: you know what is being done there that's being held
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: in terms of US treasuries. That of course puts a
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: lot of pressure on that. I want to go to
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: a clip real quick because this will explain kind of
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the bear versus the bull case on the Japanese carry trade.
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: Take a look.
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: Strong chance of this happening, according to Kelshi, very strong chance.
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: So if it does happen, is this one hike, does
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: that set up the scenario that you're talking about? Or
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: if there's more hikes, if this is a series of hikes,
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: is that the issue we should be worried about.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: I think this is going to be just a series
• 2:46
  Speaker 4: of hikes, and I think a lot of the carry
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: trade has probably washed out last year. There will be
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: more world washing out as we continue to lower our
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: interest rates and they continue to raise their interest rates,
• 2:59
  Speaker 4: and I think in real I think that's going to
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: be the backdrop to keep rates going much lower here
• 3:04
  Speaker 4: in the US.
• 3:05
  Speaker 5: This could become a giant global margin call. We saw
• 3:08
  Speaker 5: what happened in the margin colle with bitcoin. Just a
• 3:11
  Speaker 5: few weeks ago. Imagine that on the scale, on the
• 3:14
  Speaker 5: global scale, right, I mean that would be you know,
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: really a bad scenario. That's what you got to watch for,
• 3:22
  Speaker 5: is right, does this rate fall and do we see
• 3:26
  Speaker 5: our long term treasury yields rise? That would be a
• 3:29
  Speaker 5: concern for me.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So what would be the yield strategy if the yen
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: starts to take a hit. One angle that many people
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: are looking at is what's going on with sonium. We've
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: been reporting on this for quite some time, but I
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: want to go to this clip on meta planet and
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: the yield strategy that might play out here.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: Take a look if I'm a Japanese family and I
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: put my money in the bank, So what kind of yield.
• 3:54
  Speaker 5: Do I get?
• 3:56
  Speaker 6: Zero?
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: You get zero?
• 3:58
  Speaker 7: I think they're now desperately looking for you. There's seven
• 4:01
  Speaker 7: trillion dollars of cash sitting on personal bank accounts. Corporates
• 4:05
  Speaker 7: have another four or five trillion.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: Tell us what you're planning and what you're thinking.
• 4:09
  Speaker 7: Our version of strike, it's a perpetual preferred It pays
• 4:15
  Speaker 7: four point nine percent in yend. The goal is to
• 4:17
  Speaker 7: get that listed in Japan early next year. If I
• 4:21
  Speaker 7: share too much with you, here are you going to
• 4:23
  Speaker 7: try to do the same in Japan.
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: Now, not in the next twelve months.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: I'll give you a twelve month head start, all.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: Right, so you can see Sailor trying to get into
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: the Japanese market, seeing that the potential for this is
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: pretty significant. That was, of course the metaplan at CEO
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: kind of talking about the instruments that would replace what's
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: happening with the yen. If we start to see interest
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: rates a crew on the Japanese in that most likely
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: that's going to happen. Now, the question is is bitcoin
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: still the play, especially when you think about Wall Street
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: leading in what the rest of the world is doing.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: Here's a clip that kind of breaks that to take
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: a look, Britt, you don't own it, but you probably
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: have the most bitcoin related or crypto exposure on the show.
• 5:06
  Speaker 8: I think Japan and crypto related that on one creates pressure.
• 5:10
  Speaker 8: I also think the FED stopping QT is going to
• 5:13
  Speaker 8: be positive. I think MicroStrategy has a complicated balance sheet.
• 5:17
  Speaker 8: I think bmn R from a treasure ethereum treasury. They
• 5:20
  Speaker 8: have a clean balance sheet. Obviously they're issuing shares, but
• 5:22
  Speaker 8: they're not doing preferreds or converts, and so I think
• 5:25
  Speaker 8: that this is an opportunity. I bought a theorym more
• 5:27
  Speaker 8: ethereum last week. I just think, especially with ethereum, which
• 5:30
  Speaker 8: is down quite a bit off the size, this is
• 5:32
  Speaker 8: when you add to these positions.
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Right, you're telling people to buy Strategy.
• 5:36
  Speaker 8: No Ethereum. I was like, I don't understand. Micro Strategy's
• 5:40
  Speaker 8: balance sheet is way too complicated for me to parse through.
• 5:44
  Speaker 8: I've decided to play it with Ethereum, and I bet
• 5:46
  Speaker 8: let me.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Go to you on it, because I don't know what
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: else I say on it. I mean, what else is
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: there to say?
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: The twelve month price target for the stock that trades
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: one eighty two right now is four hundred and seventy
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: three dollars. That's ridiculous, all right, So you can kind
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: of see the counterbalance between the two strategies. One of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: those that, of course you have to look at is
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: the complexity of that trade that that trader was talking
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: about is with micro strategy and the balance sheet. Are
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: other investors looking at that same thing? Remember Startail announced this,
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: We did a full video on this. Institutional grade compliance
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: now into a stable coin in the sonium ecosystem, this
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: of course being in Japan. This is a digital stable
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: coin that is US based, So the opportunity here for
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: an alternative is real, and I think some of the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: things you have to consider here USDC put your startel.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: This is the kind of money they're talking about in
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: terms of earning. So that's the alternative that's out there,
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: and the question will be will the Japanese go for
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: something like this, which essentially means that Yale is going
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: to be on chain instead of in traditional finance. One
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: thing I want to hit on right here was why
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: Sony chose us D stable coins over JPY and the
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: reason is the business model. This of course trump's everything
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: they're doing in Japan. Sony targets thirty percent of overseas
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: sales to US customers.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: That's a big deal.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: And don't forget the PlayStation, one of the biggest gaming
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: consoles out there, eliminating credit card fees. This again would
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: be another opportunity for stable coins to do that. So
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: a global commerce demand on dollar rails coming through stable coins.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: And again this goes back to yields now within the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Japanese market flipping out of the end.
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: So all of this also.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Pertains to what their tax position has been in Japan.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Twenty two percent of Japanese investors left crypto due to
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: tax complexity, and of course all of that has now
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: changed because they have restructured their tax plan. We showed
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: that here on this show to decrease from what was
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: around fifty percent down to twenty percent on.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: A fixed rate tax.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: This is of course going to draw in a lot
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: of their investors previously in crypto back into it in
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: the Japanese market.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: So here's another thing to look at. Here's Keo.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: This of course is a platform out there that is
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: now running a campaign to pay you to move your
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: ETH into Sonium. So basically this is the Japanese trying
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: to get to your ethereum right now. These are the
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: kind of moves that are taking place. One other note
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: to take a look at this, of course, is Kathy
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: would that basically put these two guys together and this
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: is Quantum and of course BM and R tom Lee.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: This of course could be aligning because remember Kathy Wood
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: is looking to try to enter the Japanese.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: Market via eth. This is exactly what she's.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Doing with BM and R. She's investing in tom Lee.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: So interesting bedfellows for sure. Here's Kathy Wood basically saying, hey,
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: we're happy to support Japan's first institutional grade eth DAT
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: and you can kind of see the growth that they've
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: had with Condum Solutions just in a very short period
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: of time, exploding over what we've seen in the past.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Just so you kind of know what's going on. This
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: is Japan's first collaboration on Thatt's staking. So this is
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: another strategy that we'll start to draw in off of
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: the reverse carry trade if it does in fact fall apart,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: and most likely it will, and a lot of these
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: investors are going to be looking for yield. This will
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: be possibly one of the spot spots that this could occur.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: One other thing that Quantum is doing which is kind
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: of interesting, they've had a project code named Frontier Finance. Basically,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: what it means is it allows them to take corporate
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: cash ingest this into the eath ecosystem, paying yield on it.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: And if you think.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: About that, that's the question that we started off in
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the front of the video is is the micro strategy
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: of Japan too complicated where they may go this route
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: As we start to see these yields unwind off of
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: the Japanese yen they're going to be looking for a home. Now,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: what does that mean for ETH? Could mean a huge
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: thing for ETH because all of this could start to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: push heavy into the market. Trump is now holding seven
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: and a half billion of ethereum. I don't know if
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: this means an thing, but of course you have to
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: consider World War liberty finance is right now on the
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: ethereum ecosystem. Not only that, let's look at this. ETH
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: is now bigger than Visa and MasterCard.
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: Look at the chart here.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: As we're talking about what we're seeing, and we haven't
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: even completed the quarter around stable coin transfer volume on
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: ethereum already surpassing the volume of Q three still a
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: month left in the quarter of Visa MasterCard. That is
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: insane because we haven't really seen the unlock yet on
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: where stable coin is going. I want to go to
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: another clip real quick. I've got two to wrap up here.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: This one, of course, is Jack Moller's talking about bitcoin
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: and DeFi take a look.
• 10:38
  Speaker 8: So you want to do brokerage like coin base, but
• 10:41
  Speaker 8: strictly bitcoin.
• 10:43
  Speaker 9: We're really interested in building credit markets on top of bitcoin,
• 10:46
  Speaker 9: lending products on top of bitcoin. Will we'll come out
• 10:49
  Speaker 9: with them sooner rather than later. I'm not committing to
• 10:51
  Speaker 9: any timelines today. The thing is, you know, our tagline
• 10:54
  Speaker 9: is a bitcoin company. We're not a stable going company.
• 10:57
  Speaker 9: We're not a crypto company. We're not a prediction market company.
• 11:00
  Speaker 9: We see bitcoin as the forest through the trees. It
• 11:02
  Speaker 9: is the opportunity and no one seemingly focused on it.
• 11:05
  Speaker 9: And that's the part of the story of this equity
• 11:08
  Speaker 9: is to focus solely on bitcoin, deliver value to shareholders
• 11:11
  Speaker 9: through primarily bitcoin.
• 11:12
  Speaker 8: Who should buy your stock? Why wouldn't they just buy bitcoin?
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: Then?
• 11:16
  Speaker 9: You know, I agree with that. We do not want
• 11:18
  Speaker 9: the market to think of us and price us as
• 11:21
  Speaker 9: just a treasury asset that is not us at all.
• 11:23
  Speaker 9: We're going to acquire as much bitcoin as we possibly can.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: All right, So the way I perceive that is Jack
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: is trying to build bitcoin DeFi without DeFi is the
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: way I perceive that. I guess the market will tell
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: us if this works. We'll see if Mahler's and his
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: team are going to be able to pull something out.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: This is another clip that gets into Kathy Wood talking
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: about what is holding back bitcoin from exponential growth.
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: Take a look, why did we get Tesla right? Because
• 11:54
  Speaker 6: we didn't define it as an auto company. We gave
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: it to three people. Robotics analyst, an energy storage analyst,
• 12:04
  Speaker 6: and an AI analyst. Three analysts collaborating, three platforms feeding
• 12:10
  Speaker 6: each other. We've got three different s curves at work. Right,
• 12:15
  Speaker 6: I'll take you to a higher level than just exponential growth.
• 12:19
  Speaker 6: How about super exponential growth, and that is defined as
• 12:24
  Speaker 6: a company that is growing quickly but is entering new businesses.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: When you break down Kathy's clip, what she's trying to
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: do is get to exponential growth. Okay, As a good investor,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: you're always looking for those opportunities. What she was comparing
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: to was Tesla, But what she's talking about is Ethereum
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: because it has all of these.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: New business models AI.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: What we're going to see on tokeni's assets, what we're
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: going to see on private credit, what we're going to
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: see on stable coins. As you look at the global
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: market overview, you can kind of see just the growth
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: that we are continuing to experience and it's just getting started.
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: So this is the kind of exponential growth that she's referencing,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: and I think this is the market going forward.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: A few other things.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: If you kind of compare bitcoin minor revenue fees. This
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: is now down to one of its lowest points in
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: a long time, even though we are continuing to see
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: these remember these spikes that we had on these last turns,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and this of course was in twenty seventeen. Then you
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: saw this one right here, which was in twenty twenty four,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: that of course.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Was the April high.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: These are the kind of issues that we are facing.
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Let's just look there.
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: Also look at the hash rate also climbing and seeing
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: its first decline since really what we saw back in
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty one, which if you guys remember that was
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: when China basically said Bitcoin no more, no more mining
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: in China, and that of course is what happened right there.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: We're starting to see that kind of pullback currently on
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: bitcoin hash rates, so not good in general.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: And then let's go to the lightning nodes.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Lightning nodes continuing to decline here. So this is the
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: question that everybody's asking is which is the better asset
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: right now? I still think eth is still the better
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: asset to go with.
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: Now.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: This is only because I'm looking forward five years, ten years.
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: I hear Saylor all the time talk about this, but
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like bitcoin is probably gonna end up being
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: a store of value, possibly a speculative value that will
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: maybe in some way compared to gold. But all of that,
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: I think if you're looking for growth, I think this
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: is clear as we are seeing so much opportunity here
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: with you.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: All right, guys, you know what to do.
• 14:34
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• 14:36
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• 14:39
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• 14:41
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• 14:43
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