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NFL Draft Trends with Evan Abrams · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast part of Action Network
0:14
Speaker 1: and proudly presented by Bett three six five, the world's
0:21
Speaker 1: favorite sportsbook brand. I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer
0:25
Speaker 1: of the Action Network. I am joined as I am
0:29
Speaker 1: in every episode by my co host, by my bff,
0:33
Speaker 1: by my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter.
0:40
Speaker 2: Hello, so wymen.
0:42
Speaker 3: Hello hot Chad. It's my first all nighter.
0:45
Speaker 4: Did not sleep so I would not miss the show
0:48
Speaker 4: since I've been in Hawaii.
0:49
Speaker 2: Well why what's going on?
0:53
Speaker 1: Uh?
0:53
Speaker 4: Well, not only do I love doing this show, so
0:55
Speaker 4: I don't want to miss a show, But a little
0:57
Speaker 4: bit of a nerd fact.
0:59
Speaker 3: I am up us with space.
1:00
Speaker 4: I love all things space, and today we launched I'd
1:06
Speaker 4: say we as human beings. But Elon mus did the starship.
1:10
Speaker 4: I don't know if you know anything about that chat.
1:11
Speaker 3: Dude, I watched it, did you. Yeah, So it was exciting.
1:15
Speaker 4: They got it off the ground, but then it wouldn't
1:16
Speaker 4: break apart like.
1:17
Speaker 3: It was supposed to, so it blew up.
1:20
Speaker 4: But like they said, all the nerds said in the chat,
1:23
Speaker 4: this is what we want, we want to learn, so
1:25
Speaker 4: we got to take it with a grain of salt.
1:27
Speaker 3: But it's exciting, like the fact that you.
1:30
Speaker 4: Know, people are so negative every day you just hear
1:32
Speaker 4: all the negative stories in the news and all those
1:34
Speaker 4: horrible things. You know, sometimes there's some exciting things as
1:37
Speaker 4: being a human, and this is one of those moments.
1:39
Speaker 3: Where it's like, this is pretty crazy.
1:42
Speaker 4: They're building ships right now to try to send people
1:44
Speaker 4: to Mars the next couple of years. So the fact
1:46
Speaker 4: that the first one they built got off the ground,
1:49
Speaker 4: it was pretty pretty historical to watch.
1:51
Speaker 3: So that's awesome. Chad, I didn't know you got up
1:53
Speaker 3: and watch that too.
1:54
Speaker 1: You know what I love about you, Simon. People could
1:58
Speaker 1: hear you on the podcast only know a little bit
2:01
Speaker 1: about you, know that you're a professional better and not
2:06
Speaker 1: understand that you've got a deep well of interest of empathy,
2:13
Speaker 1: that you get excited by things that you can be optimistic. Listen,
2:19
Speaker 1: I agree with you about space exploration and the importance
2:25
Speaker 1: of bringing it to the masses and what it can
2:29
Speaker 1: give us in terms of enthusiasm and hope, because it's
2:34
Speaker 1: what's next that's where you go like, you gotta figure
2:38
Speaker 1: it out. Also, we have to figure out what the
2:43
Speaker 1: fuck is happening with this NFL Draft. We're going to
2:45
Speaker 1: bring on Evan Abrams, our director of research, in a minute.
2:50
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of cool things.
2:51
Speaker 1: We can talk about, Ohio state quarterback history, what's happening
2:55
Speaker 1: with CJ. Stroud, What are the Packers going to do now?
3:00
Speaker 1: Basic draft positioning as we get closer and closer. Before
3:04
Speaker 1: we came on the air, we were talking about Bryce Young,
3:08
Speaker 1: who's ods got as high as minus two thousand and
3:10
Speaker 1: now they're dropping a little bit. There's all this Will
3:13
Speaker 1: Levice smoke, there's all this CJ.
3:15
Speaker 2: Stroud smoke.
3:17
Speaker 1: Evan said something really interesting and I don't want them
3:19
Speaker 1: to comment yet, but you and I are going to
3:21
Speaker 1: talk about this. Everyone talks about these quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson,
3:26
Speaker 1: Will leve A, c J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Hendon Hooker.
3:28
Speaker 1: Maybe maybe that's not the highlight of the draft, and
3:35
Speaker 1: maybe it's Will Anderson and all of a sudden, like
3:37
Speaker 1: there's this momentum for Will Anderson at number two.
3:40
Speaker 2: It's getting very interesting.
3:43
Speaker 4: Yeah, now this is the that's that time of year chat.
3:46
Speaker 4: It's just there's a lot of here. Sam again, we'll
3:49
Speaker 4: talk about on this show.
3:50
Speaker 3: Here.
3:50
Speaker 4: There's a couple guys who opinions I value higher than
3:53
Speaker 4: other people's. So when they put out their mocks, that
3:56
Speaker 4: moves numbers. We've seen a bunch of numbers move in Again,
3:59
Speaker 4: we're going to dive into it is because certain people
4:01
Speaker 4: carry certain weight and we just know how it is
4:04
Speaker 4: where they're not just doing it for the clicks. They
4:06
Speaker 4: clearly know something when they say something. So the movement
4:09
Speaker 4: these last couple of days has been insane, and that's
4:12
Speaker 4: the kind of thing we love with these kind of
4:14
Speaker 4: drafts where it's like, you know, there's no guaranteed guy
4:17
Speaker 4: still at the top of these drafts.
4:19
Speaker 3: There's so many different little dominoes gonna happen.
4:21
Speaker 4: So gonna gonna love and hear what Evan has to
4:24
Speaker 4: say about it. But once again, it's one of those
4:27
Speaker 4: things where we kind of we kind of listen to
4:29
Speaker 4: these trends and if you if you know anything of.
4:31
Speaker 3: These drafts, the history repeats itself.
4:33
Speaker 4: So one of those drafts where if a quarterback doesn't
4:36
Speaker 4: go two or three, oh man, it's gonna be never
4:39
Speaker 4: any drama in this draft.
4:40
Speaker 3: Draft that does happen.
4:42
Speaker 2: It's gonna be amazing.
4:43
Speaker 1: Reminder, you say, these markets are moving, and these markets
4:46
Speaker 1: move based on a lot of the bets that are
4:49
Speaker 1: coming in from people like Vegas Refund, Lou Swayne, who
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Speaker 1: works at Action as a part of our our Fantasy
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Speaker 1: are our Action Island shows. I was going to say
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Speaker 2: Him and Nick.
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Speaker 1: Grisco, who was on with us earlier in the week,
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Speaker 1: are going to do an Action Network final Mock Draft
5:12
Speaker 1: podcast when we talk about markets moving. These are two
5:15
Speaker 1: of the guys that move the markets that Nick pointed
5:19
Speaker 1: out on Tuesday that Luke and made a bet on
5:22
Speaker 1: a certain player. I forget who it was, and Books
5:24
Speaker 1: took that bet down after he made it because it
5:26
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5:31
Speaker 1: we get to Evan Abrams, director of Research at Action Network, reminder,
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Speaker 1: Evan Abrams, we're bringing you in before we get to
7:19
Speaker 1: our very carefully curated topics that Matt Mitchell is going
7:23
Speaker 1: to force me to talk about right now, because you
7:27
Speaker 1: are a sneaky, active, better throwing you curveball here. Sure,
7:34
Speaker 1: give me the biggest draft bet you've made so far.
7:39
Speaker 5: Wow, the biggest draft that I've made, I think is
7:44
Speaker 5: Bjohn Robinson to go like top five or six in
7:50
Speaker 5: that range. That is the biggest bet I've made so far,
7:53
Speaker 5: because I think someone's going to reach out for him.
7:55
Speaker 5: I think people are talking top ten, but I think
7:58
Speaker 5: he's going to be one of the best players, and
8:00
Speaker 5: I think someone's going to reach for what they know
8:02
Speaker 5: is the best player with the best specs. And I
8:05
Speaker 5: just think when you look overall, the quarterbacks are weak,
8:09
Speaker 5: and I think we keep waffling between those five quarterbacks
8:12
Speaker 5: from every person you're talking to, to every GM you hear,
8:16
Speaker 5: because there's no one great. There's no Trevor Lawrence, there's
8:18
Speaker 5: no one with great stature, and everyone keeps going back
8:21
Speaker 5: and forth, and I think they're going to end up
8:23
Speaker 5: looking at the d Lineman's the will Anderson's and the
8:27
Speaker 5: Bjon Robinson's in the sense that these people are just
8:30
Speaker 5: going to produce. So I like Bjon and I think
8:32
Speaker 5: he's going to go early.
8:34
Speaker 1: Well that's interesting, Simon, what do you think of that?
8:37
Speaker 3: That'd be crazy?
8:38
Speaker 4: Again, that's one of those moves that would, you know,
8:40
Speaker 4: shake up the whole draft. You can go on bedthrough
8:42
Speaker 4: to bed three six y five right now and get
8:45
Speaker 4: him at plus one twenty. He'd be a top ten
8:47
Speaker 4: pick because I think most people assume he'll go to
8:50
Speaker 4: the Eagles, right that's the room where you keep hearing.
8:53
Speaker 4: But would not shock me at all if he goes
8:56
Speaker 4: to Seahawks or if he goes to the Lines like
8:58
Speaker 4: those are two teams that they think they're going win
9:00
Speaker 4: now mode.
9:01
Speaker 3: So again, he is the most complete player, so not
9:04
Speaker 3: at all would be a shock.
9:05
Speaker 4: I mean, you're probably getting crazy odds of about him
9:07
Speaker 4: to be top five. It's is it risky chat I
9:11
Speaker 4: would say no, just because you're going a good plus number.
9:15
Speaker 3: But it's definitely one of those picks where.
9:16
Speaker 4: Like you know, I would I would assume most people
9:20
Speaker 4: think it's going to be the quarterbacks, and then you
9:23
Speaker 4: know it's gonna be Will Anderson or Carter at that pick.
9:26
Speaker 4: So right now, if you want to take him to
9:29
Speaker 4: be a top five pick on bed three sixty five,
9:32
Speaker 4: it is plus sixty six to one. So if you
9:35
Speaker 4: want to six, yeah, sixty six to one right now,
9:37
Speaker 4: you just want to throw a little bit on that,
9:39
Speaker 4: why not? Because it's one of those things that it
9:42
Speaker 4: would not be shocking to see a team trade up,
9:45
Speaker 4: especially in that five spot taking him there where Seattle
9:48
Speaker 4: is picking.
9:49
Speaker 2: Well, look, you know I got to say.
9:53
Speaker 1: Right now in ESPN dot com there is a story
9:55
Speaker 1: that has a phenomenal headline. It meet Jean Robinson, a
10:00
Speaker 1: generational NFL draft talent in the wrong generation. I'm gonna
10:05
Speaker 1: get a little I'm gonna get a little writerly geeky
10:08
Speaker 1: here because it's written by a writer named Hallie Grossman,
10:12
Speaker 1: who I worked with closely when I was ed her
10:15
Speaker 1: in chief of the magazine. She was started as a
10:17
Speaker 1: reporter at the magazine. Incredibly talented, she rose up became
10:21
Speaker 1: a writer at the magazine.
10:22
Speaker 2: She's still writing for ESPN.
10:24
Speaker 1: The story is amazing, and it lays out in very
10:28
Speaker 1: smart writing and very good scenes and very good analysis
10:34
Speaker 1: the quandary that is Bijon Robinson as a generational talent
10:39
Speaker 1: at a time when running backs are so poorly valued
10:43
Speaker 1: by the NFL, and that when you draft a receiver
10:47
Speaker 1: who works out like a Justin Jefferson or a Jamar
10:50
Speaker 1: Chase and you get them for cheap in those first
10:53
Speaker 1: few years, it's saving you so much more money than
10:55
Speaker 1: when you get a running back who you're going to
10:57
Speaker 1: have to overpay as a high draft pick, and he'll
11:00
Speaker 1: immediately become one of the highest paid running backs. Someone
11:03
Speaker 1: said in the story, he basically have to produce like
11:07
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, one thousand yards receiving a thousand yards rushing,
11:11
Speaker 1: which he's done once McCaffrey, and it's only been done
11:14
Speaker 1: three times in the NFL history. For the money they'd
11:17
Speaker 1: have to pay Jon Robinson, he'd.
11:18
Speaker 2: Have to do it every year.
11:20
Speaker 1: It's a great story with what you guys are saying,
11:24
Speaker 1: with what Evan is saying, we'd have to expect looking
11:28
Speaker 1: at the top five, it would either be Arizona or
11:33
Speaker 1: Seattle that would be most likely to take Jon or Robinson.
11:39
Speaker 1: If he's going to go top five.
11:41
Speaker 4: Sure, yeah, I would say it's a pretty safe bet
11:46
Speaker 4: at this point to say Arizona won't be making that pick.
11:49
Speaker 4: From everything you hear, it just seems like if CJ's
11:52
Speaker 4: one that falls, if it's Will Levis, that's the one
11:54
Speaker 4: that falls. Like there's a bunch of guys that Anthony Richardson,
11:57
Speaker 4: there's just a bunch of different people that we've heard
11:59
Speaker 4: all these teams talk about these quarterbacks. The Colts is
12:02
Speaker 4: the pick, right, Like everyone knows the Colts are most
12:04
Speaker 4: likely going to take.
12:05
Speaker 3: A quarterback there.
12:06
Speaker 4: So that pick three, it just seems like Tennessee, Vegas,
12:09
Speaker 4: there's all these different teams that kind of will move
12:11
Speaker 4: into that spot take that quarterback. So once again, it's
12:15
Speaker 4: it's a bet on the Seahawks. It's a bet on
12:17
Speaker 4: that five spot at sixty six to one. Why not
12:20
Speaker 4: make the bet you like you're literally just gotta put
12:21
Speaker 4: a penny on it. It's more about the bet the
12:24
Speaker 4: top ten, Like you're getting plus one twenty on that as.
12:26
Speaker 3: Well, which we love.
12:28
Speaker 4: It's not that we're saying it's kind of the idea
12:31
Speaker 4: of it is old school, like what Chad saying now,
12:34
Speaker 4: it's anyone that has a draft chart, it'll never get
12:38
Speaker 4: the value back of drafting and running back this high.
12:40
Speaker 4: But when you're a complete team, and you know you
12:42
Speaker 4: can get a guy who's like sa Kuon Barkley. Anyone
12:45
Speaker 4: can remember Saquon Barkley's rookie year. That kid had nothing
12:48
Speaker 4: around one of the worst offensive lines I've ever seen,
12:50
Speaker 4: the worst quarterbacks I've ever seen, and he was untouchable
12:53
Speaker 4: like that twenty one to twenty two year old young
12:56
Speaker 4: running back. We've seen it time and time again when
12:58
Speaker 4: they get drafted up high. They're not like, you know,
13:01
Speaker 4: the Richardson's the bust of the past. Nowadays they have
13:05
Speaker 4: they have enough resources now and they draft these guys
13:07
Speaker 4: and these top picks like this, you're gonna get a Zeke,
13:09
Speaker 4: You're gonna get a Saquon Barkley. User usually gonna get
13:11
Speaker 4: a workhorse guy. So to me, that's why it makes sense.
13:14
Speaker 4: Like Evan just said, taking it at that number, why not, Chat,
13:17
Speaker 4: that's just such a good value, a sixty six to one.
13:19
Speaker 2: Would you like the Eagles to take them?
13:21
Speaker 1: Do you feel like the Eagles as they're currently constructed,
13:24
Speaker 1: they're closest to being a complete team, certainly of everybody
13:28
Speaker 1: who's in the top of that board, he was a Carter.
13:32
Speaker 4: Carter would be number one by far, like I love
13:36
Speaker 4: a good d tackle, and again we drafted one last year.
13:39
Speaker 4: But yes, Jalen Carter. So to me, if he somehow
13:42
Speaker 4: falls to ten, that's automatically a pick. But of course
13:45
Speaker 4: I won Robinson. It's like I compare the kid to ap.
13:49
Speaker 4: He is truly a freak, and most people's draft boards
13:51
Speaker 4: they have him the top three, top four.
13:54
Speaker 3: It was my number two guy. I'm hot, I really
13:56
Speaker 3: highly rated, So I want him to do it. Chat.
13:59
Speaker 4: I just the Eagles fan in me and the Howie fan.
14:02
Speaker 4: It's just how he doesn't do that. So it would
14:04
Speaker 4: be one of the more shocking picks. But again, I mean,
14:08
Speaker 4: I don't know if we can.
14:08
Speaker 3: Talk about it.
14:09
Speaker 4: Peter Schrager, guy, I do respect. He mocked him going
14:12
Speaker 4: to the Eagles, and he wouldn't just do that just
14:14
Speaker 4: to do it. He's doing it because he knows something.
14:16
Speaker 4: So to me, on a guy like Peter puts that
14:18
Speaker 4: out there, and it's a big deal. We've seen that
14:20
Speaker 4: number move. It was I think plus two hundred from
14:23
Speaker 4: me to a top ten pick. Peter put out his mock,
14:26
Speaker 4: did his Good Morning America good good Morning Football show,
14:29
Speaker 4: and we saw move to plus one twenty.
14:31
Speaker 3: So to me, he's not just saying it just to
14:33
Speaker 3: say it.
14:34
Speaker 4: He's not one of those type of people like if
14:35
Speaker 4: he's gonna put something in there, that's a big deal.
14:37
Speaker 4: And now we've seen guys like Peter King talk about
14:40
Speaker 4: he's heard too that the Eagles like this kid a
14:42
Speaker 4: lot and that's a good.
14:43
Speaker 3: Pick for them.
14:43
Speaker 4: So I don't want him to do it, Chad, just
14:46
Speaker 4: because I'm one of those people I take into the
14:48
Speaker 4: draft math that that's just not a valuable pick there taking.
14:52
Speaker 3: A running back.
14:52
Speaker 4: There can get a running back in the second, third round.
14:54
Speaker 4: That could be you know, it could be a Kamara.
14:57
Speaker 4: You know, that's what we're looking for. So I wouldn't
14:59
Speaker 4: be shocked. But I'm like you, Chai. As a fan,
15:02
Speaker 4: of course, I want the kid like I want him.
15:04
Speaker 4: I don't want the offensive lineman that's not gonna do
15:06
Speaker 4: anything this year. I want the running back. So yeah,
15:09
Speaker 4: the fan in me hopes it is, but I just
15:12
Speaker 4: can't see it happen. I see a different team swooping
15:14
Speaker 4: in that top ten taking in before then.
15:17
Speaker 1: Well what's funny is you mentioned the Eagles and Howie
15:20
Speaker 1: and Schrager put that out and I saw that too.
15:23
Speaker 1: In the story that I mentioned by Hallie on ESPN
15:26
Speaker 1: dot com right now, the opening scene and an anchor
15:30
Speaker 1: scene in the story is Bijon having to convince Howie
15:35
Speaker 1: why he's worthy of being taken so high. Wow, so
15:38
Speaker 1: running back and almost like trying to avoid using the
15:43
Speaker 1: phrase running back when he's making his pitch because everybody
15:49
Speaker 1: knows nobody wants to take a running.
15:50
Speaker 2: Back because of the value that high.
15:53
Speaker 1: It is the middle of the NBA playoffs, right or
15:55
Speaker 1: the beginning of the NBA playoffs, and we're going to
15:57
Speaker 1: get more into the draft. And found an amazing NBA
16:02
Speaker 1: playoff betting stat last night, So tell us what it is, Evan.
16:07
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I think you just have to touch on
16:08
Speaker 5: this because literally it's taking over the world currently just
16:11
Speaker 5: because it keeps going. So teams that win also cover
16:14
Speaker 5: the spread, and that's been an unbelievable trend so far.
16:17
Speaker 5: So in this year's playoffs, the winner of the game
16:20
Speaker 5: is sixteen and zero against the spread. Now you say
16:22
Speaker 5: to yourself, Okay, underdog wins automatically happens, and if the
16:26
Speaker 5: spreads aren't large, tends to happen anyway. But if you
16:29
Speaker 5: look over the last three years, it's now one hundred
16:31
Speaker 5: and seventy four and thirteen, so winner also covers the spread.
16:36
Speaker 5: It's about ninety three percent, which is actually an eight
16:40
Speaker 5: percent difference between the previous three years. So something's happening.
16:44
Speaker 3: In that area.
16:45
Speaker 5: And the fun one that everyone likes is it's actually
16:47
Speaker 5: covered in forty four straight playoff games. So and the
16:52
Speaker 5: thing that's interesting, if you look at the board right now,
16:54
Speaker 5: like the next six or eight games currently in the
16:56
Speaker 5: next few days, no spreads larger than six, so that
16:59
Speaker 5: actually might be telling you a little bit why it's happening.
17:02
Speaker 1: So basically, whoever you like to win the game, if
17:05
Speaker 1: you like the underdog, like let's say you like the
17:07
Speaker 1: Nets tonight in desperation mode against the Sixers, just bet
17:11
Speaker 1: the Nets on the money line.
17:13
Speaker 3: Sprinkle do it?
17:14
Speaker 5: Yeah, sprinkle Yeah. It's happening on both sides. And the
17:18
Speaker 5: interesting thing, which you can hear on all of our
17:19
Speaker 5: other podcasts and all of our other content, is the
17:22
Speaker 5: first half trend when you're down oh two going home.
17:24
Speaker 5: So there's all sorts of things kind of working in
17:27
Speaker 5: that Brooklyn favorite tonight, So we'll see how it goes.
17:31
Speaker 1: Little ziggy zag zig Zig zig zig zag. All right,
17:37
Speaker 1: let's get back to the draft. Nice little MVA interlude.
17:42
Speaker 1: I wake up this morning. I don't know if you
17:44
Speaker 1: guys saw this, but the socials are a buzz with
17:49
Speaker 1: talk about CJ. Stroud blowing off the Manning Passing Academy.
17:56
Speaker 3: And three years ago in high school.
17:58
Speaker 2: And tying that, Yeah, I didn't see any of the context.
18:02
Speaker 4: Yah from three years ago when he was in high school.
18:04
Speaker 1: Honestly, Simon, I saw it all, and I thought, this
18:07
Speaker 1: is really fucking stupid, Like this is when this is
18:10
Speaker 1: when it gets to someone's being used, right when the
18:15
Speaker 1: media starts coming out with this. We saw this a
18:17
Speaker 1: few years ago with the whole mac Jones Trey Lance stuff.
18:21
Speaker 1: We've talked about it ad nauseum like the.
18:24
Speaker 2: Guys in the media.
18:25
Speaker 1: This is when smoke screens are at their highest and
18:28
Speaker 1: when capital jade journalism is at its lowest, because guys
18:33
Speaker 1: just run with rumors wildly because they know it can
18:38
Speaker 1: sort of be interesting fodder and like the stakes aren't
18:41
Speaker 1: so high, you know, it becomes incredibly irresponsible and silly.
18:46
Speaker 4: And I said that because again, I'll never forget a
18:50
Speaker 4: story about I supposely the bills leaked info about Josh
18:53
Speaker 4: Allen not being close to a lot of guys on
18:55
Speaker 4: his team, but it's because he was a senior and
18:57
Speaker 4: the rest of his team were like, you know, sophomores
18:58
Speaker 4: and juniors. A lot of the guys who was as
19:00
Speaker 4: we have already left the teams and the Bills joked about
19:02
Speaker 4: They're like, yeah, we put that on the media because
19:03
Speaker 4: we wanted.
19:04
Speaker 3: Jousts to drop.
19:05
Speaker 4: So there is a lot of chess pieces like moving
19:08
Speaker 4: here for these kind of things like Chad's touching on.
19:10
Speaker 2: Dude, dude, the gms are playing chess and the media
19:14
Speaker 2: is playing checkers, is the problem?
19:16
Speaker 1: And or or the gms are playing chess and they
19:19
Speaker 1: know that. The people in the media who put these
19:21
Speaker 1: things out there are the pawns because they're just moving
19:25
Speaker 1: people around.
19:27
Speaker 4: Whatever.
19:27
Speaker 2: This CJ.
19:27
Speaker 1: Stroud stuff, the fact that it's coming out now, do
19:32
Speaker 1: we think it's having an impact Evan, I'll start with
19:36
Speaker 1: you on his draft position or was that already something
19:41
Speaker 1: that was being impacted.
19:43
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Mann Academy thing means nothing. It's a story.
19:45
Speaker 5: There's just too much time right now where nothing is
19:48
Speaker 5: going on in like the NFL landscape, and it happens
19:52
Speaker 5: every single year and we'll talk about it later with
19:54
Speaker 5: Hendon Hooker. But people are just making stuff up and
19:56
Speaker 5: people are making stories. Then you get higher profile people
19:59
Speaker 5: making mock tra and he listens to him, and he
20:02
Speaker 5: listens to her. It becomes an absolute mess. And the
20:05
Speaker 5: fact that Simon said it, this wasn't even this year,
20:07
Speaker 5: this wasn't even last year. It's like, okay, enough already.
20:10
Speaker 5: And people were looking at Stroud as an issue even
20:13
Speaker 5: prior to this. You know his play, the Ohio State thing.
20:16
Speaker 5: There's enough stuff you can find issues with when it
20:20
Speaker 5: comes to Stroud that you don't need to make up
20:22
Speaker 5: something from three years ago that probably meant nothing. That's
20:24
Speaker 5: my opinion.
20:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, it all seems a little bit silly. I feel
20:30
Speaker 1: like I will continue to say this. If you're drafted
20:33
Speaker 1: a quarterback number one overall, it should be c J.
20:37
Speaker 2: Stroud. Simon, where do you have c J. Stroud?
20:41
Speaker 1: You said you said you had Bijon number two. I
20:44
Speaker 1: know how seriously you take this? Where do you have CJ.
20:46
Speaker 2: Stroud?
20:48
Speaker 4: I've CG A three. I still Carter at one. Like
20:51
Speaker 4: I know, Carter is all the off field stuff. And
20:54
Speaker 4: I watched a lot of his tape, he took plays off.
20:58
Speaker 3: But he's a college kid who.
20:59
Speaker 4: Would get a double and then he would just stand
21:01
Speaker 4: there with a double like it was kind of those
21:02
Speaker 4: things where he would take plays off. I know why
21:05
Speaker 4: people hate on Jalen Carter for it.
21:07
Speaker 3: It's definitely there on tape.
21:08
Speaker 4: In the NFL, you just don't do that, especially not
21:11
Speaker 4: maybe when you're you know.
21:12
Speaker 3: Year eight vet you can take some plays off.
21:15
Speaker 4: He's if he's coming in as a top five, top
21:17
Speaker 4: ten pick, there's no plays off for Jalen Carter, So
21:20
Speaker 4: I think that's one of the big negatives for him.
21:22
Speaker 3: CJ.
21:22
Speaker 4: Yeah, my number third ranked player, Chad, it's I've taken
21:26
Speaker 4: some shit a lot of DMS. Guy's talking shit to
21:28
Speaker 4: me about me saying I wouldn't take Bryce Shunk till
21:30
Speaker 4: the second round. It's honestly, the way I look at this,
21:34
Speaker 4: it's it's just a business.
21:35
Speaker 3: It's nothing person.
21:36
Speaker 4: Bryce Shunk to me is one of these smartest quarterbacks
21:39
Speaker 4: I've ever evaluated. The kid's brains is off the charts.
21:41
Speaker 4: It's foot by a Q is insane. But he can't
21:44
Speaker 4: run under a four or five forty. He weighs under
21:47
Speaker 4: two hundred pounds. It's like the if he was six
21:50
Speaker 4: three six y four and had wide shoulders in a
21:52
Speaker 4: bigger body, I wouldn't have a second round grade on him.
21:54
Speaker 3: He would be easier first round pick.
21:56
Speaker 4: So that's why I just can't wrap my head around
21:58
Speaker 4: it that this kid is going to go number one overall.
22:02
Speaker 4: If you're still in a position like I and they,
22:03
Speaker 4: you want to fade it once again, bet three six
22:06
Speaker 4: y five, you can go on there right now. You
22:07
Speaker 4: can take CJ. Stroud to be the first pick. It's
22:10
Speaker 4: plus eight hundred. You can go to pick two. He's
22:14
Speaker 4: plus one thousand right now, Bryce Young to be the
22:16
Speaker 4: second pick overall. I still think that's the realm of
22:19
Speaker 4: a possibility that Carol Linon was just bluffing. They were
22:22
Speaker 4: just trying to get a pick out of Houston. Houston
22:24
Speaker 4: doesn't bite. They end up taking CJ. Anyway, and then
22:26
Speaker 4: Bryce Young follows falls to Houston, which Houston has been
22:30
Speaker 4: saying for two months now. That's who they want. So
22:33
Speaker 4: if you want to fade the public, that's the play.
22:35
Speaker 3: Right now.
22:36
Speaker 4: You can do an easy south. You can't parlay it anymore.
22:39
Speaker 4: Most books don't let you parlay these draft picks. But
22:42
Speaker 4: make a straight bet up plus eight hundred, CJ be
22:44
Speaker 4: the first pick, Bryce young GiB the second pick is
22:46
Speaker 4: plus one thousand. So I'm like you, I still can't
22:49
Speaker 4: really wrap my head around it because I just think, yes,
22:52
Speaker 4: CJ does have some negatives, but the positives far outway.
22:56
Speaker 4: The kid is a good athlete. He's big bodied, he's
22:59
Speaker 4: got a good arm. He's smart too, like football intelligence wise.
23:02
Speaker 4: You smart. I mean Evan might touch on him. Give
23:06
Speaker 4: give him this Ohio State trivia, but there's a there's
23:09
Speaker 4: a there's definitely a knock against Ohio State quarterbacks.
23:11
Speaker 3: Chat.
23:11
Speaker 4: I think you're one of the teams that benefited from it,
23:13
Speaker 4: getting justin fields where you did.
23:15
Speaker 3: He dropped.
23:16
Speaker 4: We heard because he's a he was a Ohio State quarterback.
23:18
Speaker 4: So we've seen it time and time again. These Ohio
23:21
Speaker 4: State quarterbacks do drop in these drafts. I think there's
23:24
Speaker 4: a difference though.
23:24
Speaker 5: I think the knocks on Bryce are actually his stature
23:28
Speaker 5: and a lot of things that have to do with
23:29
Speaker 5: his play, while the knocks on Stroud are about like
23:32
Speaker 5: Buckeye history. Like, I think there's a difference, Like look
23:34
Speaker 5: at Stroud and you say to yourself, actually kind of
23:37
Speaker 5: looks like a quarterback, right like that looks like someone
23:39
Speaker 5: you can you know, trade up for potentially. I just
23:42
Speaker 5: don't see it with Bryce. So I'm on, I'm on
23:44
Speaker 5: the same page with you. He just doesn't look like
23:45
Speaker 5: someone I want to invest in.
23:47
Speaker 4: But he looks at a project, like a second round,
23:50
Speaker 4: like a Jalen Hurts type project. So that's what I'm
23:52
Speaker 4: just not getting here with Bryce Shung. It's it's an
23:55
Speaker 4: incredible move by his agent and Nick Saban to get
23:57
Speaker 4: him into this position that he's in right now.
24:00
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm never a big fan of.
24:05
Speaker 1: These history opinions on quarterbacks from various schools. It's like
24:12
Speaker 1: to me when you ascribe value to oh, the Bears
24:17
Speaker 1: of you know, haven't beaten the Packers in twenty seven years,
24:21
Speaker 1: blah blah blah. Nobody on any of these teams is
24:25
Speaker 1: relevant to anything that happened more than three years ago.
24:28
Speaker 4: And it matters though, Chad, don't be a school Why
24:32
Speaker 4: I'm with Chad because you don't get it. Brother, Time
24:36
Speaker 4: is endless circle. History repeats itself and never ending. That's
24:39
Speaker 4: why it's so important. Like I'm with you, I tink
24:42
Speaker 4: it with a grain of salt too.
24:43
Speaker 3: But you can't throw it out. There's something to it.
24:46
Speaker 4: I told you the Bears have never drafted a good
24:49
Speaker 4: quarterback and Ohio States never produced one. No one will
24:52
Speaker 4: be shocked if Justin Field's out of the league in
24:54
Speaker 4: six years. It's just the God on his truth.
24:56
Speaker 3: Chad.
24:56
Speaker 4: It's like you are a cursed franchise. You can't raft quarterbacks.
25:00
Speaker 3: You know it.
25:01
Speaker 4: I told you name your favorite quarterback in your history.
25:04
Speaker 4: I think you said Sid Luckman, or the hell it
25:06
Speaker 4: was someone from the sixties, So.
25:10
Speaker 5: I'm trying.
25:11
Speaker 2: Here's my Sid Luckman, Bobblehead, who went so Justin Fields
25:15
Speaker 2: was the greatest quarterback in Chicago Bears history, and he's
25:18
Speaker 2: from the forties. And also, I want to point something out.
25:22
Speaker 2: I want to point something out.
25:23
Speaker 1: Okay, you have gone from warm, sentimental, nearly weepy about
25:29
Speaker 1: the wonders of space exploration hardcore business on Bryce Young
25:35
Speaker 1: not being worthy of being a number one overall pick
25:38
Speaker 1: or even a first round pick now to the mysticism
25:40
Speaker 1: of time is a flat circle.
25:43
Speaker 2: You are a three D person, Simon, and I love
25:48
Speaker 2: that about you.
25:50
Speaker 3: Thanks, Jeff.
25:51
Speaker 1: Depths of Simon Hunter are endless, Evan, why do you
25:56
Speaker 1: agree with me and what is your take on Ohio
25:58
Speaker 1: state quarterbacks?
25:59
Speaker 5: And I just agree with you because again it's a past.
26:03
Speaker 5: It means nothing with j Stroud. Yes, it's an interesting
26:06
Speaker 5: thing with the program, but I'll give you the numbers
26:08
Speaker 5: anyway and then we can go into it. So if
26:10
Speaker 5: you want a draft in Ohio state quarterback history is
26:12
Speaker 5: not on your side. Justin Fields will actually become the
26:16
Speaker 5: only Ohio state quarterback to be the primary starter for
26:19
Speaker 5: two seasons or more. That it just did. It hasn't
26:23
Speaker 5: happened other than that.
26:24
Speaker 3: Is that not crazy? Jeff? Come on an insane stat
26:28
Speaker 3: He'll be the.
26:29
Speaker 2: Only Ohio state quarterback in NFL history.
26:32
Speaker 5: Be the primary starter for two seasons or more.
26:35
Speaker 3: That is it.
26:37
Speaker 5: There have been nineteen Buckeye quarterbacks selected in the NFL draft.
26:40
Speaker 5: That's draft and supplemental. When when you throw inter el prior.
26:44
Speaker 1: Going back to like nineteen to the J. Berwinger Draft
26:47
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty seven.
26:49
Speaker 5: That's it. Those are like, yeah, I think the firstson
26:52
Speaker 5: was like in the thirties. When I look back at
26:54
Speaker 5: the stats that I was looking at, those quarterbacks are
26:57
Speaker 5: combined forty two and eighty eight. The three first round
27:02
Speaker 5: picks justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Art Sleister forty four starts,
27:10
Speaker 5: thirty six losses.
27:12
Speaker 1: Haskins and Schleister are tragic stories.
27:16
Speaker 5: Very very tragic. Verry, Yes, I guess the one thing
27:21
Speaker 5: you could take from it is this so Ohio State
27:23
Speaker 5: first overall picks, Orlando Pace, goat Dan Wilkinson, not goat
27:29
Speaker 5: Tom Kusen out flop. And then if you want to
27:32
Speaker 5: go to the NBA draft, you can give you Greg Odin.
27:34
Speaker 5: How's Greg Godin that workout?
27:36
Speaker 3: That's what you mean?
27:37
Speaker 2: That's just me.
27:38
Speaker 3: Was Bosa not number one? Are now? Bosa was number two? Ye?
27:41
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean listen, not a sterling track record. I
27:44
Speaker 5: think we just discussed why maybe it doesn't matter so
27:47
Speaker 5: much when you evaluate Stroud. But oh boy, oh boy,
27:52
Speaker 5: oh boy.
27:53
Speaker 2: Was that going to be your trivia question.
27:55
Speaker 5: I'll set up the trivia question because it actually it
27:57
Speaker 5: gets even more fun. So, like I said, you know
28:00
Speaker 5: Ohio State quarterbacks have been selected in an NFL draft
28:03
Speaker 5: or supplemental draft. Only one has made the Pro Ball.
28:06
Speaker 1: Mister Milman, Well, it's not justin fields yet, Mike tom Zach.
28:14
Speaker 5: It's a good that's a really good one. It's not
28:16
Speaker 5: because that's a good one because he was he was undrafted.
28:19
Speaker 2: And then Harbaugh came. Okay, so who would it be?
28:22
Speaker 5: All right, so the extra hint he actually made it
28:25
Speaker 5: as a punter. It's Tom Tupa.
28:29
Speaker 1: That is such a such an indictment on the history
28:33
Speaker 1: of Ohio state quarterbacks and does not make me feel
28:37
Speaker 1: good about the future for Justin Fields.
28:39
Speaker 5: To me, that stat just says it all. Listen Fields
28:42
Speaker 5: five and twenty as a starter. So we'll see how.
28:44
Speaker 2: It got ke Evan Abrams.
28:47
Speaker 5: But again, how much you want to weigh for Stroud,
28:50
Speaker 5: We'll see, all right.
28:52
Speaker 1: Can we talk about Hendon Hooker because he's sort of
28:54
Speaker 1: like there's a lot of bets out there over under
28:57
Speaker 1: four and a half on total quarterbacks taken to the round,
29:00
Speaker 1: and I think that's a really interesting one. He's obviously
29:04
Speaker 1: the pivot point for that number, being over a lot
29:09
Speaker 1: of conversation lately about him being a guy that teams
29:13
Speaker 1: are starting to think about. I think it's indicative of
29:16
Speaker 1: how each team has so many questions about each one
29:18
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks.
29:20
Speaker 4: But it's again, it's crazy. He's four years older than
29:22
Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson.
29:23
Speaker 2: He twenty five years old.
29:25
Speaker 4: Yeah, like that's what it's so hard to wrap my
29:28
Speaker 4: head around these kind of things where it's like, I
29:30
Speaker 4: did not think he was gonna your first round pick,
29:31
Speaker 4: and now we've seen most people mocking Hayden at that
29:34
Speaker 4: back end hooker being I don't know, they have him
29:38
Speaker 4: going at pick thirty to a lot of these mocks.
29:40
Speaker 3: So interesting where Evan's opinion is on it.
29:43
Speaker 1: Yeah, well I want to get Evan's opinion on this
29:45
Speaker 1: also because I think as a quarterback, your career has
29:49
Speaker 1: been extended, do you know what I mean? Look at Brady,
29:52
Speaker 1: look at Rogers, look at Breez, look at players who.
29:55
Speaker 2: You get hit less.
29:57
Speaker 1: If you're smart about how you hand your body, then
30:01
Speaker 1: you can play longer. I'm not saying it's going to
30:04
Speaker 1: be the norm, but I think there's probably less of
30:08
Speaker 1: the concern drafting a twenty five year old than it
30:10
Speaker 1: might have been a decade ago.
30:11
Speaker 4: I would say because of Joe Burrow. Maybe that's the
30:13
Speaker 4: reason people aren't as scared because Joe came out late.
30:16
Speaker 4: I think Joe was what it was. He two years
30:19
Speaker 4: at Ohio State before he transferre LSU. I just remember
30:21
Speaker 4: he did his time in college, So maybe that's word
30:24
Speaker 4: of the two Chad, But definitely I always think that
30:27
Speaker 4: Brandon Whedon think like Brandon Whedon came out. I think
30:30
Speaker 4: he got drafted of what twenty nine or something like
30:32
Speaker 4: that by Dallas or maybe it was the Browns, and
30:36
Speaker 4: everyone was just like, why the hell would you do that?
30:38
Speaker 4: So that's always my pause with It's just like, you're
30:41
Speaker 4: already losing so.
30:41
Speaker 3: Many young good years there.
30:43
Speaker 4: It's just interesting that, you know, Hooker's coming off a
30:46
Speaker 4: big knee in jury and he's twenty five. It's crazy
30:49
Speaker 4: he's been able to work his way into that top
30:50
Speaker 4: thirty thirty two.
30:52
Speaker 2: Evan, what's your take?
30:54
Speaker 5: Yeah, Simon actually just mentioned and I was going to
30:56
Speaker 5: be like that was kind of the hook in the
30:57
Speaker 5: whole thing, which is the acl torn and no.
31:00
Speaker 2: Real pun intended.
31:01
Speaker 5: Yeah, there go not only twenty five, but injured too.
31:05
Speaker 5: And I think we kind of do this every year
31:07
Speaker 5: and bigas refound. Luke Swayin mentioned this as well, And
31:09
Speaker 5: I think it's really important. We have so much time
31:13
Speaker 5: we create all these things, like think about the past years.
31:16
Speaker 5: Desmond Ritter, Davis Mills, Jacob Beeson, Will Greer, Mason Rudolph,
31:20
Speaker 5: Like I can go on and on and on. We
31:23
Speaker 5: end up having so much time, we create first round
31:25
Speaker 5: value out of third round picks, and I think that's
31:29
Speaker 5: ends up what really happens here. But listen, when you
31:33
Speaker 5: look at having to actually take five quarterbacks in the
31:36
Speaker 5: first round, it doesn't happen often. Twenty twenty one, twenty eighteen,
31:40
Speaker 5: nineteen ninety nine, nineteen eighty three the only four times
31:44
Speaker 5: it's happened since the merger. So I know, we're like
31:47
Speaker 5: falling in love with four or five quarterbacks, and that's
31:50
Speaker 5: because we probably don't have one or two and everyone
31:53
Speaker 5: wants to get a quarterback right away. But this just
31:55
Speaker 5: seems a little off to me.
31:57
Speaker 1: That is a great fucking line, fallen in love with
32:01
Speaker 1: four to five quarterbacks because we.
32:03
Speaker 2: Don't have one or two. That says it all. That
32:08
Speaker 2: says it all.
32:10
Speaker 1: I could see the Saints drafting Hendon Hooker at twenty nine,
32:14
Speaker 1: But think about the money.
32:15
Speaker 5: And Simon knows more about this than I do in
32:16
Speaker 5: this sense, But think about the investment, right, Like you
32:19
Speaker 5: say to yourself, Okay, Hooker's the guy, twenty nine thirty whatever,
32:22
Speaker 5: it is the first round investment in that quarterback coming
32:25
Speaker 5: off that you gotta be really confident in what you're doing.
32:28
Speaker 5: To not take alignment. Just a piece on your team
32:32
Speaker 5: that is maybe missing to take a chance feels odd.
32:38
Speaker 2: What's your trivia question for Tennessee?
32:41
Speaker 5: Only two Tennessee quarterbacks have been drafted in the first
32:44
Speaker 5: three rounds. Ever, One was Peyton Manning twenty five years ago.
32:49
Speaker 5: Can you name the other? Drafted a few years earlier.
32:51
Speaker 5: I got some Hintsafia if you need.
32:52
Speaker 4: A few years earlier earlier, Vinny Testaververdi.
32:57
Speaker 2: He went to Miami, so he was a flop.
33:02
Speaker 5: Not shocking. This one's from our producer Matt Mitchell, which
33:06
Speaker 5: might help Chad. He later became a North Carolina congressman.
33:12
Speaker 2: Oh it was he.
33:15
Speaker 5: Shuler nailed it very well.
33:17
Speaker 2: There, Schuler number five. By the way, I.
33:21
Speaker 5: Was gonna say he was drafted after Marshall Falk, but
33:24
Speaker 5: before William McGuinness. A nice little sam.
33:26
Speaker 4: Matt Mitchell either could be thirty five years old or
33:28
Speaker 4: fifty five years old.
33:29
Speaker 3: I will never truly know.
33:31
Speaker 2: It's totally true.
33:32
Speaker 1: Also, there was another quarterback, like it came down to
33:34
Speaker 1: Schuler and another quarterback in that draft.
33:36
Speaker 2: I can't remember who it is. Maybe Matt Mitchell can.
33:38
Speaker 1: Look it up while we're talking, because the other team
33:41
Speaker 1: I want to talk about is the Green Bay Packers,
33:47
Speaker 1: who have very serious tendencies for drafting first round quarterbacks.
33:53
Speaker 1: They're at fifteen, they've committed to Jordan Love, they are devoid.
33:59
Speaker 2: Of a ton of talent, a lot of spots. What
34:01
Speaker 2: do we think they're going to do?
34:04
Speaker 5: And it's been really sad because I feel, like, you know,
34:07
Speaker 5: working in social for a while and being in stats,
34:11
Speaker 5: this stat has been regurgitated for years.
34:14
Speaker 3: It is literally the.
34:15
Speaker 5: Fact that since they drafted Aaron Rodgers in two thousand
34:17
Speaker 5: and five, Green Bay has had two gms Good and
34:19
Speaker 5: Kuston Thompson. Here are the first round picks by position.
34:23
Speaker 5: Six offensive linemen, four linebackers, three defensive backs, one quarterback, Love,
34:29
Speaker 5: two safeties, and two offensive line two offensive tackles. So basically,
34:34
Speaker 5: since two thousand, the Packers have only taken two total
34:37
Speaker 5: wide receivers, running backs, or tight ends in the first round.
34:40
Speaker 5: They just have never given him help in the draft,
34:43
Speaker 5: and it was even widely seen in the last few
34:47
Speaker 5: years when he asked for it. So insane, And if
34:50
Speaker 5: you go even further back nineteen seventy, the Packers have
34:53
Speaker 5: only taken three other pass catchers in the first round,
34:56
Speaker 5: and two of them are Hall of famers Sterling Sharp,
35:00
Speaker 5: James Lofton, and Barry Smith. So it's just not something
35:03
Speaker 5: green Bay does in probably an area that they need
35:05
Speaker 5: some helping.
35:07
Speaker 1: Green Bay drafts it might be the most you know,
35:13
Speaker 1: how teams can represent their cities. The Steelers are representative
35:19
Speaker 1: of Pittsburgh, the Cowboys representative of Dallas. The way the
35:26
Speaker 1: Packers draft is representative of green Bay. They go stout,
35:31
Speaker 1: they go big, they go infrastructure, they go non glamour.
35:39
Speaker 5: You're one hundred percent right, and I think in the
35:41
Speaker 5: past it's probably bid them a little bit well in
35:44
Speaker 5: that sense, like they've actually built a really good fortress
35:48
Speaker 5: of a team on both sides of the ball, and
35:51
Speaker 5: I think they've actually made the right decisions, But in
35:53
Speaker 5: that alienated the quarterback. So interesting strategy.
35:59
Speaker 1: The Heath Schuler draft was nineteen ninety four and the
36:05
Speaker 1: other quarterback that was being debated was Trent Dilfer, who
36:10
Speaker 1: went two picks later.
36:14
Speaker 2: What do you want to talk about next, Evan?
36:16
Speaker 1: Do you want to talk about Stetson Bennett or do you
36:18
Speaker 1: want to talk about the group of five?
36:20
Speaker 5: Still a group of five. To me, this stat is ridiculous. Okay,
36:23
Speaker 5: so a lot of mock drafts do not feature any
36:27
Speaker 5: group of five conference players going in the first round.
36:29
Speaker 5: These are players from the non major conferences like AAC,
36:33
Speaker 5: Sunbelt MAC. But history tells us a G five player
36:38
Speaker 5: will get taken early. A G five player has gone
36:41
Speaker 5: in the first round every single year since nineteen ninety,
36:44
Speaker 5: more than thirty consecutive drafts. And the thing that's interesting
36:47
Speaker 5: is you look at mock drafts all over the place
36:50
Speaker 5: and there are none. Now, I think a reason for
36:53
Speaker 5: this could be the fact that we're just widening our
36:56
Speaker 5: scope in terms of how many players were looking at
36:58
Speaker 5: from different schools Division two division, like just different places
37:02
Speaker 5: we're looking for scouting. But I'm honestly curious, from Simon's
37:05
Speaker 5: point of view, like, how is this even possible that
37:08
Speaker 5: these groups of different schools don't have the talent to
37:11
Speaker 5: kind of get into this area. It just feels like
37:13
Speaker 5: possibly an outlier, but could be a trend.
37:17
Speaker 4: It's funny, you said, because I asked a scout literally
37:19
Speaker 4: about this not even two days ago. When I was
37:21
Speaker 4: talking to his reasoning makes more sense of what my
37:23
Speaker 4: thought was. His reason was COVID. He thinks this is
37:25
Speaker 4: kind of a COVID effect of a lot of guys
37:28
Speaker 4: just red shirt a year. A lot of guys stay
37:30
Speaker 4: at these schools where these big time programs and you know,
37:33
Speaker 4: these smaller schools.
37:34
Speaker 3: It's changed a lot of these guys.
37:36
Speaker 4: If you're really good at a smaller school, why wouldn't
37:38
Speaker 4: you transfer trying to get nil deal right and when
37:41
Speaker 4: the new one of.
37:41
Speaker 3: These bigger schools. So that could be part of it.
37:44
Speaker 4: So in my opinion, I thought it was something to
37:46
Speaker 4: do with that, like if you're if you're really good,
37:48
Speaker 4: because you know, I was back in the day you'd
37:49
Speaker 4: hear about some random center at some small school in
37:53
Speaker 4: Colorado that was a free corps you know, like a
37:55
Speaker 4: to o at where was his school, Louisiana Techer, Do
37:59
Speaker 4: you remember that it was?
38:00
Speaker 3: I remember something really weird.
38:01
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's always that guy, Like there's almost always that
38:05
Speaker 4: guy that kind of pops on the board. So the
38:08
Speaker 4: fact that you know, we don't have that type this year,
38:11
Speaker 4: it's not that chocking, just because I think I do
38:13
Speaker 4: something with COVID and.
38:14
Speaker 3: I al deals.
38:15
Speaker 4: Like it's just there's so much money out there if
38:18
Speaker 4: you are this freak and you're at a D two school.
38:21
Speaker 4: You know, why wouldn't you try to get to a
38:22
Speaker 4: bigger school and try to make some money while you're
38:24
Speaker 4: in college. Because you know, most guys, I would say,
38:27
Speaker 4: they're pretty rational about this nowadays.
38:29
Speaker 3: They know the NFL is not that all be all.
38:30
Speaker 4: You can go to the AFL, there's other leagues now
38:32
Speaker 4: you go playing, it doesn't have to just be the NFL.
38:34
Speaker 3: So it kind of makes sense.
38:36
Speaker 4: But I always think there's a Belichick out there where
38:38
Speaker 4: Belichick will just see some guy we don't even know about,
38:41
Speaker 4: and he'll just take him in the first round and
38:43
Speaker 4: people be like, who the hell is this safety? From
38:45
Speaker 4: Farley Dickinson, It's like, well, Belichick knows the kid's dad
38:48
Speaker 4: or something weird like that.
38:50
Speaker 1: All right, guys, listen, we are one week from the
38:54
Speaker 1: draft right now as we are recording this podcast. In
39:00
Speaker 1: a week will be you know, seven hours away from
39:06
Speaker 1: the first pick being named. We know how much activity
39:11
Speaker 1: there is in the final forty eight hours, twenty four hours,
39:14
Speaker 1: even twelve hours before a draft.
39:17
Speaker 2: Simon first, then Evan tell me what will.
39:21
Speaker 1: Be the narrative at this time next week that is
39:28
Speaker 1: surprising us that is settling the draft. What do we
39:31
Speaker 1: think the narrative about the draft at the top of
39:33
Speaker 1: the draft will be.
39:36
Speaker 3: I still think I'll just be the quarterbacks.
39:37
Speaker 4: The Will Levis thing is real, Like his his movement's
39:43
Speaker 4: been the most shocking, just because once again he's an
39:45
Speaker 4: older quarterback as well. He's had one really good season,
39:48
Speaker 4: one horrible season. Don't really know what to make of
39:50
Speaker 4: the kid. He's injury prone as well, but you hear
39:53
Speaker 4: from all these different gms. He's got the body in
39:55
Speaker 4: the arm chat, which I talk of all the time,
39:57
Speaker 4: Like it's.
39:57
Speaker 3: Sometimes it's really that simple.
39:59
Speaker 4: If they have the body of the arm, you go, well,
40:01
Speaker 4: we'll put him out there is who we can get.
40:03
Speaker 4: It's kind of like that brock Oswaler thing. It's like
40:05
Speaker 4: rock Icewalter made sense on paper. He was tall as shit,
40:09
Speaker 4: had a great arm, had one good season, and.
40:11
Speaker 3: We saw him just fall apart.
40:12
Speaker 4: So it's kind of one of those things where I
40:16
Speaker 4: think Evan touched on when you have a draft you're
40:18
Speaker 4: not really sure who the best quarterback is and you're
40:20
Speaker 4: kind of mixing matching all these different guys. All it
40:23
Speaker 4: takes is one team to fall in over the guy.
40:24
Speaker 3: Like it's really all that it takes.
40:26
Speaker 4: So to me, I still think the biggest drama of
40:30
Speaker 4: the drafts and come down to that third pick. I
40:32
Speaker 4: think if Arizona moves out of that pick and a
40:34
Speaker 4: team moves up, it's kind of make a lot of
40:37
Speaker 4: chaos here, just because I think the Colts are acting
40:40
Speaker 4: like they want Will Levis. But I think the Colts
40:42
Speaker 4: deep down when Anthony Richardson and I think he'll be
40:44
Speaker 4: going at third pick. So to me, that's gonna be
40:46
Speaker 4: the drama of the draft, especially next week, all the
40:49
Speaker 4: rumors flying, I think it's talking about that third pick.
40:51
Speaker 2: Evan, what's the narrative.
40:53
Speaker 5: I'll say to one, I love the Jaalen Carter stuff
40:56
Speaker 5: because also Drew Rosenhaus, like the problems he's had in
40:58
Speaker 5: the past, Drew's done such a great job at leveling
41:01
Speaker 5: out all the issues and being like, this is the talent,
41:04
Speaker 5: this is the kid. I think he's going to fly up.
41:06
Speaker 5: I think someone's going to take a shot earlier because
41:07
Speaker 5: I think he's safer than the quarterbacks. And then it's
41:10
Speaker 5: obviously what Simon said, it is the quarterbacks. And I'll
41:12
Speaker 5: actually lead into a great stat with the quarterback, So
41:16
Speaker 5: most consecutive drafts without taking your quarterback in the first round.
41:20
Speaker 5: It's the Saints fifty one years their last first rounder
41:24
Speaker 5: Archie Manning in nineteen seventy one. But the hook here
41:27
Speaker 5: is next on the list is the Cowboys. Fine, it
41:30
Speaker 5: was Troy Aikman, but then you've got the Seahawks and
41:32
Speaker 5: the Raiders Seahawks at twenty nine years, Raiders at fifteen years,
41:36
Speaker 5: last being JaMarcus Russell. But the Raiders is the interesting part, right,
41:40
Speaker 5: because I do agree that the Arizona's going to probably
41:42
Speaker 5: flop out of there, and I think the Raiders really
41:45
Speaker 5: want a quarterback. And I think the intriguing thing next
41:49
Speaker 5: year's class much better than this year's class. So do
41:52
Speaker 5: you make the move now or do you wait to
41:55
Speaker 5: see if you get into the mix next year? Do
41:57
Speaker 5: you try to package something? It's kind of a thing,
42:00
Speaker 5: and that I think is the most interesting thing overall.
42:02
Speaker 4: And I've heard that from scouts too, that Williams the
42:05
Speaker 4: teams don't want to just come out and say they're
42:07
Speaker 4: tanking Chad, but the Williams makes teams want to come
42:09
Speaker 4: out and just tank like that kid would be the
42:11
Speaker 4: number one pick, no doubt this year and this year's draft,
42:14
Speaker 4: so it's not shocking. Will not be shocking me if
42:17
Speaker 4: Bright Seawan goz A one and Houston does pass on
42:19
Speaker 4: a quarterback, like I do think they should take CJ there.
42:23
Speaker 4: But in their mind if they're like screw it, like
42:25
Speaker 4: we can't compete our division anywhere, let's kick it down
42:27
Speaker 4: the road. Go for Williams next year, that would be
42:30
Speaker 4: the move. Like, the kid is incredible, So I.
42:32
Speaker 3: Think I have a hit on the head there.
42:34
Speaker 4: There's some teams that we think are gonna be in
42:36
Speaker 4: it on the quarterback and they might not be just
42:37
Speaker 4: because of Williams next year.
42:39
Speaker 2: It's going to be an exciting week, guys.
42:41
Speaker 1: I cannot wait as we get closer. Reminder to everybody,
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