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Israel, Exxon, and House Speaker · Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
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Speaker 2: Every business day, we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
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Speaker 1: Right now, we want to get back to the story,
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Speaker 1: the front page story, which is obviously what's happening in
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Speaker 1: Israel call it. Elgindy, Senior fellow at the Middle East Institute,
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Speaker 1: joins us here. Colin, thanks so much for joining us here.
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Speaker 1: We know you have so much expertise in this part
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Speaker 1: of the world. I wonder if you could just for
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Speaker 1: a lot of us, we're just not sure what's happened
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Speaker 1: over the last several days. Can you give us a
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Speaker 1: sense of why Hamas did what they did on Saturday?
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Speaker 1: Why did they do it, what was their goal of
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Speaker 1: any and then where do we go from here?
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Speaker 3: Yeah?
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Speaker 4: I mean I can't really speak to why Hamas would
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Speaker 4: carry out such a horrific attack that has killed hundreds
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Speaker 4: and hundreds over a thousand Israelis. I don't understand, you know,
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Speaker 4: the logic behind it. I think it's totally unjustifiable. But
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Speaker 4: what I can speak to is the context in which
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Speaker 4: this is happening, and that is, you know, there's you know,
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Speaker 4: Israel has occupied, has ruled over the Palestinians, five million
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Speaker 4: Palestinians in a military occupation for more than half a century,
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Speaker 4: had many many generations of Palestinians who have grown up
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Speaker 4: without really knowing any sort of freedom. And in Gaza
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Speaker 4: in particular, you have a very severe blockade that Israel
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Speaker 4: has imposed that has impoverished the Gaza Strip, and most
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Speaker 4: of the two million people who live in Gaza actually
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Speaker 4: rely on international assistance for their basic needs. And so
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Speaker 4: that's the context in which this is happening, as well
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Speaker 4: as the sort of broader sense of despair among Palestinians
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Speaker 4: that you know, there is no end in sight either
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Speaker 4: to Israel's occupation, which is quite violent and repressive, or
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Speaker 4: to the blockade in Gaza. And so Hamas is one
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Speaker 4: of the various Palestinian factions that have embraced what they
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Speaker 4: call armed struggle and are determined to pursue to push
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Speaker 4: back on and resist Israeli occupation through violence of course,
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Speaker 4: the violence that they've opted for in this case is
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Speaker 4: wholly unjustified in that it's directed at civilians.
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Speaker 2: Yes, and seems to be specifically directed, according to the
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Speaker 2: New York Times report on hostages this morning, at women
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Speaker 2: and children as well, which doesn't make any sense. I
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Speaker 2: think that we, those of us who've read pretty in
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Speaker 2: depth about this.
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Speaker 1: Not nearly as much as you have.
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Speaker 2: You've studied air studies at Georgetown and Indiana University, You've
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Speaker 2: you've taught that at Georgetown as well, and obviously you'ret
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Speaker 2: the Middle East Institute. But I think we understand to
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Speaker 2: some extent the context of the occupation. One thing that
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Speaker 2: we don't One thing that we have troubled divining is
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Speaker 2: how much support Hamas has in Gaza and from Palestinians.
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Speaker 2: And I noticed in a lot of reports, for example,
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Speaker 2: in the Times today, they have a ton of coverage
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Speaker 2: on this conflict. They seem to conflate Palestinians and Hamas,
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Speaker 2: and I wonder how fair that is. What kind of
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Speaker 2: support do you think Hamas has in Gaza?
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Speaker 4: Well, you're right, it's not fair to conflate millions of
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Speaker 4: Palestinians with with one movement, even if that move movement
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Speaker 4: is is governing at the moment inside the Gaza Strip.
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Speaker 4: It's it's impossible to say exactly how much support Hamas
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Speaker 4: has I think it has support. You know, the West
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Speaker 4: Bank and Gaza are divided both politically and geographically under
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Speaker 4: different kinds of Palestinian leaderships, both still under Israeli control.
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Speaker 4: I would say, you know, people in the West Bank
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Speaker 4: probably are more supportive of Hamas than people in Gaza
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Speaker 4: who have lived under Hamas's governing And but but at
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Speaker 4: the end of the day, when something like this happens,
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Speaker 4: and and bear in mind that you know, Israel's now
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Speaker 4: in the midst of a very severe bombing campaign inside Gaza,
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Speaker 4: where as I said, two million human beings live and
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Speaker 4: have nowhere to go in a in a very narrow
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Speaker 4: strip of land, and entire neighborhoods have been leveled to
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Speaker 4: the ground. So it's I think it's impossible to overstate
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Speaker 4: the ferocity of the Israeli attack. And I think we
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Speaker 4: have to be mindful that, you knows, as horrific as
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Speaker 4: the attacks were inside Israel, we also have to remember
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Speaker 4: that there are human beings also in the Gaza Strip
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Speaker 4: who are suffering and who are dying by the hundreds
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Speaker 4: and without much say in what's going on.
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Speaker 2: In fact, I read a UNISEF report this morning that
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Speaker 2: estimated there roughly a million children living in the Gaza strip,
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Speaker 2: meaning almost half of the people there are you know,
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Speaker 2: UNISEF says children are people who are under the age
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Speaker 2: of fifteen, So almost half of the people there are
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Speaker 2: under the age of fifteen, in which case, you know,
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Speaker 2: they certainly can't support Hamas. They're not capable of making
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Speaker 2: that kind of decision.
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Speaker 1: So call it. That kind of raises a question here,
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Speaker 1: do we have an idea or based upon your research
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Speaker 1: giving the idea, what other than extracting some level of
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Speaker 1: retribution or revenge does Israel? What do you think israel
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Speaker 1: strategy is in terms of its response that we expect
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Speaker 1: any day now.
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Speaker 4: Tragically, I don't think they have a strategy. I mean,
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Speaker 4: what they've stated is to remove Hamas or to end
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Speaker 4: Hamas's military and governing capabilities. Nobody really knows what that means.
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Speaker 4: I'm certain from having talked to many Israeli officials in
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Speaker 4: the past, that they don't know what that means. I
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Speaker 4: think right now they are in a very high state
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Speaker 4: of emotion and trauma, and it is primarily a sort
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Speaker 4: of the response is really one of retribution, as you said,
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Speaker 4: and those are actually the words that Israeli military leaders
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Speaker 4: are using. That we're not after precision, we're looking to
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Speaker 4: cause damage, and we're seeing that on the ground. I
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Speaker 4: think there is considerable evidence that civilians are being targeted.
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Speaker 4: They're bombing neighborhoods, they're bombing infrastructure, they're bombing roads, preventing
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Speaker 4: ambulances from reaching the wounded and so forth, and so
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Speaker 4: it's right now emotions are running high, and so what
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Speaker 4: needs to happen is there needs to be a responsible
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Speaker 4: third party actor in the international community, presumably someone like
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Speaker 4: the United States that has considerable leverage to intervene and
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Speaker 4: really bring this to an end, because creating more death
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Speaker 4: and destruction is not going to resolve any of the
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Speaker 4: underlying issues, and in fact, is just going to make
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Speaker 4: things worse.
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Speaker 2: It's difficult not to be emotional about this when you
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Speaker 2: read the reports of what Hamas has done. I suppose
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Speaker 2: you could say the same thing in defense of the
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Speaker 2: Palestinians when you read the history of what's happened, and
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Speaker 2: you could say the same thing in support of the
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Speaker 2: Jews when you read the history of what's happened, so
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Speaker 2: you know there's this back and forth. One thing I
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Speaker 2: can't understand is why Iran can fund and support Hamas
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Speaker 2: and Hezbollah. Why they are allowed to do that, essentially,
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Speaker 2: you know, promoting terrorism. Why nothing is done about it?
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Speaker 2: Why is Iran allowed to Reportedly they fund up to
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Speaker 2: ninety percent of Hamas's budget and they're pursuing enriched uranium
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Speaker 2: to build a nuclear bomb. Why is that allowed even
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Speaker 2: by other Arab states?
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Speaker 4: Well, I mean setting aside the nuclear issue, which is
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Speaker 4: a whole other topic. Okay, but Iran, Iran is not
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Speaker 4: an air of state, but but it is a is
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Speaker 4: a key player in the region and they support many
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Speaker 4: different armed groups in different countries like Hisabela and Lebanon
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Speaker 4: who he's in Yemen, UH and UH you know others
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Speaker 4: in Iraq and in different places. Hamas is one of
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Speaker 4: the groups that it supports. From Hamas's perspective, they are
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Speaker 4: a non state actor. They need support from some patron,
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Speaker 4: some sponsor. Iran is a willing sponsor. Iran has an
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Speaker 4: interest in UH, in opposing Israel, in UH creating problems
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Speaker 4: for for Israel and what better way to do that
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Speaker 4: than to support groups whose mission it is to uh,
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Speaker 4: to attack Israel.
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Speaker 2: And to exdicate Israel to murder Jews. I mean, well,
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Speaker 2: one thing is support an state actor, but you can't
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Speaker 2: support terrorists. And Hamas, given what we've seen over the weekend,
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Speaker 2: is clearly a terrorist group, right.
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Speaker 4: I mean Hamas certainly isn't a group that has carried
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Speaker 4: out horrific acts of terrorism. There's no question about that.
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Speaker 4: And and you know these are these are war crimes
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Speaker 4: and they should be held accountable. Anyone involved in the
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Speaker 4: planning or the sponsoring, or the financing or the execution
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Speaker 4: of any of these attacks should be absolutely held accountable.
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Speaker 4: But I think we have to I think we have
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Speaker 4: to be careful in how we frame the issue. Uh,
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Speaker 4: this is I mean Hamas is not I mean Hamas
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Speaker 4: is a is a political movement. It's there's no serious
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Speaker 4: actor who believes that Hamas can destroy Israel.
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Speaker 5: Right.
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Speaker 4: Whatever the rhetoric comes out of any political movement, rhetoric
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Speaker 4: is rhetoric. I mean, if you if we take all
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Speaker 4: political and military leaders at their rhetoric.
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Speaker 1: Exactly, it would be unfortunate, you can call it. I
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Speaker 1: have to just cut a short rare because of time,
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Speaker 1: but we really appreciate you taking time sharing your thoughts
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Speaker 1: with us.
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Speaker 1: Big m and a trade here today exceon mobile buying
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Speaker 1: Pioneer Natural Resource sixty large sixty billion dollars. This is
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Speaker 1: a big time play on shale. Let's break it down
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Speaker 1: with Frenetta Valley. He is a senior analyst at Bloomberg
11:32
Speaker 1: Intelligence is covering all the energy space. He joins his
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Speaker 1: live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. So let's
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Speaker 1: start first with the price, the valuation. Did they have
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Speaker 1: to pay up to get this thing here?
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Speaker 6: A little bit? But you know when you look at
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Speaker 6: the breakdown on the free Castle per share, the ebitdah
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Speaker 6: per share after the dilution, it's actually a creative right
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Speaker 6: away to ex and mobile propriety. They can capture that
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Speaker 6: one billion dollar synergies which is the low end of
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Speaker 6: their target two billion being high end.
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Speaker 1: And it's all stock deal, all stocked. Nice, that's good
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Speaker 1: to you. Don't go out and borrow.
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Speaker 2: It, you know. I had read an analyst saying, like,
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Speaker 2: if they pay a moderate premium, then they can still
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Speaker 2: make money on this. But does it have to be
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Speaker 2: only a moderate premium or are they going to make
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Speaker 2: money handover fist.
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Speaker 6: I believe they'll make money handover fist regardless because of
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Speaker 6: two factors. First, we've talked about the underinvestment in the
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Speaker 6: industry over the past decade, and although we're burish in
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Speaker 6: the short term demand side of the equation, longer term
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Speaker 6: we think that will be the driver of oil prices.
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Speaker 6: But second, Pioneer has the largest undeveloped resource base in
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Speaker 6: the Midland Basin, which gives Excellent a huge jud region
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Speaker 6: to develop over the next ten years.
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Speaker 1: So Matt and I were just noticing that this is
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Speaker 1: just a good old fashion buy up some you know,
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Speaker 1: old fashioned fuel oil shale whatever it is. There's no carbon,
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Speaker 1: there's no solar here, there's no wind here, there's no
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Speaker 1: eco friendly thing here, there's no green here. This is
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Speaker 1: good old fashioned big oil company buying another big Texas
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Speaker 1: oil company. Right, this is old time. But they said
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Speaker 1: it was good for the environment. They said it was
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Speaker 1: good for the environment. I'm not sure where they get
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Speaker 1: that from.
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Speaker 6: Well, you know, there's two factors. Yes, it is exactly that.
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Speaker 6: And Darren Woods in his interview with Alex Steele said
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Speaker 6: they don't believe peak oils upon us and that we'll
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Speaker 6: still use oil in gas for a really long time.
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Speaker 6: And then their their point on reducing emissions is that
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Speaker 6: because they're developing this carbon capture center in the Gulf Coast,
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Speaker 6: they'll actually be able to take all the Pioneer's production
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Speaker 6: and take it there and capture that carbon and use
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Speaker 6: and reduce their emissions. So on a net basis, this
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Speaker 6: becomes a lower emissions.
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Speaker 1: So they bury that stuff, right.
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Speaker 6: They bury. Eventually the goal is to use it for
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Speaker 6: power generation, but we're still a little bit away from that.
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Speaker 1: Okay, I'll buy it.
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Speaker 2: Sounds interesting.
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Speaker 1: Some geologists somewhere came up with that idea.
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Speaker 2: So Alex Eel was on here earlier and told us
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Speaker 2: we pump thirteen million barrels a day more than Saudi
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Speaker 2: Arabia in this country. Talk to us just for a
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Speaker 2: brief moment about energy independence. What does that mean? I mean,
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Speaker 2: if for example, we no longer could import any oil
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Speaker 2: or petroleum products to the US. Would we still be
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Speaker 2: okay with prices hovering around where they are now?
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Speaker 6: Likely not unless you're counting inports from Canada and Mexico
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Speaker 6: as well and looking at that as one integrated system.
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Speaker 6: The issues that the shale oil that we produce is
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Speaker 6: very light, and it's one of the reasons we export
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Speaker 6: a fair amount of our shale crew and still import.
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Speaker 2: Then pulse fase, what what are light crudes used for
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Speaker 2: as opposed to heavy.
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Speaker 6: So light crudes tend to produce more gasoline and NAFTA,
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Speaker 6: and then medium crudes produce diesel and jet fuel. So
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Speaker 6: we need to balance that in our crude diet. And
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Speaker 6: then Paul's favorite act, the Jones Act, prevents us to
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Speaker 6: moving some of that crude into the East Coast that
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Speaker 6: could process some of that crude, So we'd have to
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Speaker 6: revoke that act. We would have to also refining capacity.
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Speaker 1: All right. Talk to so I bring up the oil
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Speaker 1: from the shale in Texas, how do I get it
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Speaker 1: to where it needs to go? How does that happen?
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Speaker 6: Pipelines primarily pipelines, and that's one of.
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Speaker 1: The midstream what you guys called midstream.
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Speaker 6: Yeah, midstream is the whole processing side. So we separate
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Speaker 6: oil from gas, from water, from the natural gas liquids,
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Speaker 6: and then we move it out to the production center's refineries, fractionators,
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Speaker 6: et cetera. And one of the wrinkles in this deal
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Speaker 6: is that it will make it harder for the mid
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Speaker 6: streams and service players because Excellon is now going to
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Speaker 6: be you know, nearly ten over ten percent of premium production.
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Speaker 6: They'll have a lot of say on how the pricing
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Speaker 6: goes that in that market. And it will also make
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Speaker 6: it harder for smaller independent players to get those service
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Speaker 6: is because you need to be exposed to Xceon and
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Speaker 6: they will have a driver's seat in that area.
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Speaker 1: Oh so, do we need to talk to Jennifer Ree
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg intellig She is anti trust person. Is this still
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Speaker 1: going to get approved? You think?
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Speaker 7: So?
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Speaker 6: I was speaking to Jennifer earlier and she thinks, because
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Speaker 6: it's less than fifteen percent of permium production, there's a
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Speaker 6: good chance that he will get approved. But the timeline
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Speaker 6: maybe beyond the first half of twenty twenty four, and
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Speaker 6: it will be a challenge. Typically, the way they argue
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Speaker 6: is that oil is a global market and we export
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Speaker 6: CREWD So we're actually competing with the Saudia, Ramcos and
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Speaker 6: the gas drums of the world and not just with
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Speaker 6: the pioneers and EOGs.
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Speaker 1: So are we going to I mean, if I'm an
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Speaker 1: investment energy investment banker in Houston, am I just ripping
16:46
Speaker 1: up the phone here calling everybody I can? My rolldeck's
16:48
Speaker 1: trying to get some deals done.
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Speaker 6: Well, you're calling four companies, primarily you're calling Conical Phillips,
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Speaker 6: You're calling Chefron, you're calling Occidental, and maybe you're calling
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Speaker 6: EOG Resources and you're saying, who do you want?
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Speaker 1: Right?
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Speaker 6: And then perhaps they're calling all the private equity players
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Speaker 6: and be like, hey, we need to get together and
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Speaker 6: create a better larger player or else we're going to
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Speaker 6: be taken up by larger players.
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Speaker 2: What about BP and SHELL Where are they in the
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Speaker 2: Permian basin?
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Speaker 6: So shell sowed their acreage to Chronicle Phillips, so they're
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Speaker 6: no longer in the Permian basin and they really have
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Speaker 6: moved away from shale. BP had bought BHP Billetin's shale portfolio.
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Speaker 6: They haven't been very aggressive in the Permian and it's
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Speaker 6: kind of a question mark because they changed their CEO
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Speaker 6: after burn Looney was forced to resign a couple months ago.
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Speaker 1: All Right, we got WTI crude oil eighty four dollars
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Speaker 1: a barrel here it did you know spike up Monday?
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Speaker 1: You know, four or five percent on the news coming
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Speaker 1: out of Israel. What's the feeling now when you talk
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Speaker 1: to the energy folks about just kind of the geopolitics
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Speaker 1: of that part of the world and what it really
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Speaker 1: means for global supply.
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Speaker 6: I guess, well, the fear is there on what happens
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Speaker 6: with Iran. Is this war going to escalate to that
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Speaker 6: part of the world, and if he does, how will
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Speaker 6: it impact the oil flows and also the exports of crude?
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Speaker 1: How much does Iran I guess producer exporter.
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Speaker 6: They produce around three million barrels a day and the
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Speaker 6: export just north at one point two million barrels a day.
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Speaker 6: So it's about one percent of the world consumption in exports.
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Speaker 6: It's not that significant, except that supply is relatively tight. Again,
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Speaker 6: as we said, our fear is on the demand side,
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Speaker 6: and that we think could be the bigger driver. But
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Speaker 6: if Iran does go into war, wars consume a lot
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Speaker 6: of fuel consume a lot of oil, so that could
18:39
Speaker 6: shift the narrative entirely.
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Speaker 2: But it's fungible, so we could be okay as long
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Speaker 2: as we hold Canada and Mexico as allies.
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Speaker 6: Exactly exactly, and we could also we have other allies,
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Speaker 6: including in the UK and Norway that produce a fair
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Speaker 6: amount of crud, in Brazil and others that can help
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Speaker 6: fill our needs.
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Speaker 2: By the way, I saw a pipeline had been damaged
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Speaker 2: between Finland and Estonia. Today you see that, yes, and
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Speaker 2: apparently at one point this is a young pipeline, it's
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Speaker 2: only three years old. Nonetheless, Finland gets almost all of
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Speaker 2: their gas through this pipeline.
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Speaker 6: I mean, Europe is in a very comfortable place with
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Speaker 6: natural gas inventories. The issue is if there are disruptions
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Speaker 6: and movements, because their diesel inventories are very low, and
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Speaker 6: that's the backup to the natural gas. And obviously they
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Speaker 6: closed a lot of nuclear plants over the past year
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Speaker 6: in Belgium and Germany. If there is a disruption, especially
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Speaker 6: in the straight or horror moves between Katara and Iran
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Speaker 6: where we get a lot of the natural gas shipments
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Speaker 6: to Western Europe, that leads them the very precarious position.
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Speaker 6: If we have a normal to cold winter.
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Speaker 2: Got to put LNG terminals in over there.
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and can you put like, yeah, what is the
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Speaker 1: LNG situation over in New York? Can't we just? I
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Speaker 1: thought you can build them pretty quickly.
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Speaker 2: Well they did. They didn't want to build them back
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Speaker 2: when Dan Boyette was over there.
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Speaker 6: But that's to regassify we need the gas first. In
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Speaker 6: Qatar and Iran shared the largest gas field in the world,
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Speaker 6: the North Field, and they are the Qatar is the
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Speaker 6: largest producer of ellen g in the world.
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Speaker 1: Interesting, man, it all comes back.
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Speaker 2: It's a big gas field in Netherlands, but they decided
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Speaker 2: to shut it down.
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Speaker 1: Yeah I heard that, because all right, Fernando, thanks so
20:22
Speaker 1: much for joining us. Fernando Valley, he's our senior global
20:26
Speaker 1: energy guy for Bloomberg Intelligence.
20:28
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20:47
Speaker 1: Economic outlook, inflation, interest rates, geopolitics is front center once again,
20:52
Speaker 1: first in Ukraine and now in Israel. Let's see how
20:55
Speaker 1: some of these professionals kind of put that into their calculus.
20:58
Speaker 1: Karra Murphy joins us. She's a CIO Kestra Investment Management. Karen,
21:02
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us via zoom here. Talk
21:04
Speaker 1: to us about kind of you know, like the rest
21:06
Speaker 1: of us, we woke up over the weekend and saw
21:08
Speaker 1: the terrible news coming out of Israel. As a professional investor,
21:13
Speaker 1: how does that factor into your calculus if at all?
21:18
Speaker 8: It's interesting, you know, I've been a chief investment officer
21:20
Speaker 8: for a long time and I've given a lot of
21:22
Speaker 8: presentations on our you know, global market outlook, and there's
21:25
Speaker 8: usually always a slide at the end of the deck
21:27
Speaker 8: that says risks, and there's always a line item there
21:30
Speaker 8: that says geopolitical risks. And exactly which risks are sort
21:33
Speaker 8: of simmering under the surface might change over time, but
21:36
Speaker 8: there's always a possibility of some sort of conflagration around
21:39
Speaker 8: around the world. And typically, like often when we see
21:43
Speaker 8: a geopolitical event outside the US, the main transmission mechanism
21:48
Speaker 8: by which it starts to affect global markets is through oil, right,
21:51
Speaker 8: So we saw this particularly in Ukraine when Russia invaded.
21:54
Speaker 8: Now conflict in the Middle East, and so I think
21:56
Speaker 8: that's the biggest immediate concern in terms of the impact
21:59
Speaker 8: on the US economy, and so far markets have really
22:02
Speaker 8: been largely shrugging it off. Now, if this continues to
22:06
Speaker 8: be you know, a big focus and continues on for
22:08
Speaker 8: a long time, really starts to affect the supply of oil.
22:11
Speaker 8: That then will drive the price of oil up, which
22:14
Speaker 8: then will complicate matters for the FED here at home.
22:17
Speaker 8: The other piece of it, of course is military funding,
22:19
Speaker 8: where now we have the US government helping a fund
22:22
Speaker 8: war in Ukraine and now war in Israel, and that
22:25
Speaker 8: does cost money. It is, you know, a commitment that
22:28
Speaker 8: the US has made, but we'll start to hurt the
22:31
Speaker 8: US budget in some way at the same time when
22:34
Speaker 8: the budget is already under pressure and we have discord
22:37
Speaker 8: in Washington.
22:38
Speaker 2: So it's sort of.
22:38
Speaker 8: The layering of these risks that starts to become an issue.
22:42
Speaker 2: I wonder to what extent the dropping yields is a
22:47
Speaker 2: reaction to the Middle East or is it a reaction
22:51
Speaker 2: to the FED speak that we've heard in the last
22:53
Speaker 2: couple of days.
22:54
Speaker 8: I still think that the US markets are being driven
22:58
Speaker 8: more by the FED than by what's happening outside the US.
23:01
Speaker 8: You know, the FED has been such a focus over
23:04
Speaker 8: the last couple of years, and they've done a great
23:07
Speaker 8: job so far in being able to bring down inflation,
23:09
Speaker 8: but this last mile for them to go on inflation
23:12
Speaker 8: is still really really important in how long interest rates
23:14
Speaker 8: remain high, and the longer interest rates remain high, the
23:17
Speaker 8: tougher it's going to be for the economy to moddel through.
23:20
Speaker 1: All Right, So Cara, let's switch gears a little bit.
23:22
Speaker 1: Focus on another data point for this market to kind
23:26
Speaker 1: of digest. It is earnings, and corporate earning is really
23:28
Speaker 1: kicking off in earnest Friday with some of the big banks.
23:31
Speaker 1: What are you looking for this quarter from Corporate America?
23:35
Speaker 8: But the big banks, it's always really helpful that they
23:37
Speaker 8: go kind of early in the earning season because they
23:40
Speaker 8: do have a really great view kind of across the
23:42
Speaker 8: country in terms of what's happening in both the corporate
23:45
Speaker 8: sector and the consumer sector. So what we'll be looking
23:48
Speaker 8: for is, particularly on the credit side, are we starting
23:52
Speaker 8: to see evidence that companies and individuals are feeling the
23:55
Speaker 8: pinch of higher interest rates. I think the answer is yes.
23:58
Speaker 8: So the question remains how much are they really feeling
24:01
Speaker 8: the pinch and how much should we be worried about it.
24:03
Speaker 8: Company banks are going to have to start increasing credit
24:06
Speaker 8: reserves and anticipation of that, you know, growing pinch. So
24:09
Speaker 8: I think that'll be a really helpful view of what's
24:11
Speaker 8: happening on the ground. The other piece that we're going
24:14
Speaker 8: to have to look out for our consumer shopping habits.
24:16
Speaker 8: We've started to hear little anecdotes from retailers come through
24:20
Speaker 8: that Again, consumers are starting to feel the pinch a
24:22
Speaker 8: little bit, but hearing about the on the ground behavior
24:25
Speaker 8: and expectations, particularly heading into the very crucial holiday shopping season,
24:30
Speaker 8: will give us a good sense of how consumers are feeling.
24:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be interesting as we I just saw a
24:36
Speaker 2: chart from Torst and Slock this morning that movie viewership
24:39
Speaker 2: has dropped dramatically in theaters. In theaters, yes, but maybe
24:43
Speaker 2: that's just a result of they're not being there's great movies.
24:48
Speaker 2: We just had Barbenheimer and yeah, you're not gonna get anything.
24:52
Speaker 1: You're not going to get anyth until the Tailor's Holidays,
24:54
Speaker 1: Taylor Swift movies coming true. We were all going to
24:57
Speaker 1: see that there's.
24:58
Speaker 2: A huge impact there, right, What, Caro, what areas of
25:03
Speaker 2: the market do you like in terms of the risk
25:05
Speaker 2: assets that you know we have on offer here? What
25:08
Speaker 2: are the sectors you like?
25:10
Speaker 8: Yeah, so this is for this has been a really
25:12
Speaker 8: tough year for anybody with a diversified portfolio, you know,
25:16
Speaker 8: because if you didn't own something in the Big seven,
25:19
Speaker 8: you significantly lagged what you saw happening in the broad market.
25:23
Speaker 8: That said, we start that, we still think that the
25:25
Speaker 8: leadership is going to start to change and where it's
25:27
Speaker 8: no longer just going to be the Big seven or
25:30
Speaker 8: the Magnificent seven, whatever you want to call them. So
25:32
Speaker 8: we're looking to go down cap a little bit. It
25:35
Speaker 8: doesn't mean you have to be in microcap names, but
25:37
Speaker 8: sort of you know, outside the market a little bit,
25:40
Speaker 8: a little bit more outside the US. And then on
25:42
Speaker 8: the credit side, again, because of this increasing pinch of
25:47
Speaker 8: higher interest rates, we would be cautious, particularly in things
25:49
Speaker 8: like high yield, where a lot of these companies are
25:52
Speaker 8: going to be hurt by a continuation of higher interest rates,
25:55
Speaker 8: and then spreads are at such a place where you're
25:57
Speaker 8: not really being paid to take on that extra risk.
26:00
Speaker 1: On the equity side, carea How do you feel about
26:02
Speaker 1: valuation here? I guess there's two ways to look at it.
26:04
Speaker 1: One just kind of looking at the broad SMP, and
26:06
Speaker 1: you could make an argument that fairly fully valued. It's
26:09
Speaker 1: not a little bit on the expensive side. But if
26:11
Speaker 1: you take out some of the big cap names, which
26:12
Speaker 1: I've had such big, big runs, whether it's six or
26:15
Speaker 1: seven names, maybe it looks a little bit better. How
26:17
Speaker 1: do you think about it?
26:18
Speaker 8: Yeah, it's really interesting because there's not one single story
26:22
Speaker 8: across the market, And even if you look at it
26:24
Speaker 8: just by sector, technology is really the only sector that's
26:27
Speaker 8: trading at a significant premium to its ten year historical average.
26:31
Speaker 8: Even consumer discretionary, which at first glance looks a little expensive,
26:35
Speaker 8: is actually trading right in line with its historical average.
26:38
Speaker 8: And then you have something like energy where valuations are
26:40
Speaker 8: half their historical average. So there are certainly areas of
26:44
Speaker 8: the market that don't look overstretched. And then even on
26:46
Speaker 8: a broad basis, you know, we're more expensive than average,
26:49
Speaker 8: but not extremely so, and that tends to not be
26:52
Speaker 8: a great indicator what direction the market is going next.
26:56
Speaker 2: By the way, I'm looking at one of the stories
26:59
Speaker 2: that's popping up. As you know, when clients click on
27:02
Speaker 2: our Bloomberg stories a lot, I have an alert, so
27:05
Speaker 2: I see what they're watching right now. Ozempic shows kidney
27:10
Speaker 2: promise and blow the dialysis firm. That's a big story.
27:13
Speaker 2: And you know, I talked to the Pepsi coost CFO
27:15
Speaker 2: yesterday his view on ozepic Whether it's hurting pepsi sales,
27:18
Speaker 2: he says not yet. Walmart says GLP one users are
27:23
Speaker 2: buying fewer calories, which is a I think pretty cool
27:27
Speaker 2: thing in itself that they can even track that. But
27:29
Speaker 2: what do you think about this move? It's like AI Junior, right,
27:34
Speaker 2: GLP ones.
27:37
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean so in many ways, like I've read
27:39
Speaker 8: the reports all those ones that you mentioned, and ozembic
27:42
Speaker 8: and other drugs like it seemed to be the wonder drug.
27:45
Speaker 7: Right.
27:45
Speaker 8: They cause us to eat less, they cause us to
27:48
Speaker 8: lose weight, have a healthier heart, now a healthier kidney.
27:51
Speaker 8: So let's all say that having healthier Americans and healthier
27:54
Speaker 8: people around the world is a good thing. Then the
27:57
Speaker 8: question is how do you actually invest alongside it? And
28:00
Speaker 8: you know, you mentioned some of the soft drink companies.
28:03
Speaker 8: Those guys have been under pressure for a very long
28:05
Speaker 8: time because of healthier like growing healthier habits of Americans.
28:09
Speaker 8: So this isn't necessarily new. It just sort of like
28:11
Speaker 8: accelerates many trends that you've already been in place.
28:14
Speaker 1: All Right, Kerra, thank you so much for joining us.
28:16
Speaker 1: As always, appreciate getting your thoughts. Karen Murphy. She is
28:19
Speaker 1: a chief investment officer at Kestra Investment Management.
28:24
Speaker 3: You're listening to the team. Ken's a live program Bloomberg
28:27
Speaker 3: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
28:30
Speaker 3: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
28:34
Speaker 3: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
28:38
Speaker 1: You want to get the latest reporting, we do that
28:39
Speaker 1: with Galite Alstein. She's a reportered with Bloomberg New She
28:42
Speaker 1: joins us from Tel Aviv. Glee, thanks so much for
28:44
Speaker 1: joining us. I know a very difficult time. What is
28:48
Speaker 1: the latest that you can tell us about what you
28:51
Speaker 1: believe or what is the consensus building about the type
28:54
Speaker 1: of response that we get from Israel.
28:59
Speaker 7: So actually today we're also seeing some developments in the
29:03
Speaker 7: north of Israel. This has been obviously a big question
29:06
Speaker 7: over the past few days on whether the Northern Front
29:09
Speaker 7: will also be joining joining in mainly Isbela, which is
29:13
Speaker 7: an Iranian backing group in the south of Lebanon and
29:17
Speaker 7: Lebanon in general. So over the past half hour or so,
29:21
Speaker 7: we've been getting reports on possibly some UAVs that have
29:25
Speaker 7: penetrated Israel through the northern border. We do not have
29:29
Speaker 7: too much details on that yet yet. I can only
29:32
Speaker 7: tell you that a lot of people, roughly a million
29:36
Speaker 7: and a half Israeli civilians have been called to go
29:39
Speaker 7: into safe rooms, into safe places and stay there until
29:44
Speaker 7: the picture is clearer. And earlier today we also saw
29:48
Speaker 7: from back and forth it wasn't as possibly dramatic is
29:53
Speaker 7: what we're seeing now. Once again, we don't exactly know
29:56
Speaker 7: what is going on now, but earlier on we saw
29:59
Speaker 7: some i'm back and forth between grisbe line idea forces
30:04
Speaker 7: some back and forth fire across the border. So we're
30:09
Speaker 7: looking a lot at that today as well.
30:13
Speaker 2: Paint a picture for us elite of you know, the
30:17
Speaker 2: differences between what's happening now and the past incursions that
30:24
Speaker 2: you face or the past you know, back and forth
30:28
Speaker 2: because typically, as I understand Israeli has just continue to
30:32
Speaker 2: go about their business, and I would imagine there's not
30:35
Speaker 2: much of an economic impact. But this has been compared
30:39
Speaker 2: to a nine to eleven, it's been compared to a
30:41
Speaker 2: nineteen seventy three. Yeah, Im Kapoor, War, is it different
30:46
Speaker 2: this time? And that people are not necessarily going to work,
30:49
Speaker 2: not necessarily going out and buying things, not necessarily doing
30:53
Speaker 2: much except for sort of huddling scared and safe rooms.
30:57
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think. I think you're absolutely right. I mean,
31:00
Speaker 7: obviously don't have all the economic data yet to bat
31:03
Speaker 7: this up, but I can definitely tell you that people
31:07
Speaker 7: are staying home a lot and not coming in to work.
31:12
Speaker 7: There's actually a combination. I think of a lot of
31:15
Speaker 7: people that have been called to serve in the army
31:17
Speaker 7: reserve forces, so we've had three hundred thousand of those,
31:21
Speaker 7: and then there are some people who need to stay
31:24
Speaker 7: at home because the children have not been going to
31:26
Speaker 7: school throughout the entire country, I mean all over Israel.
31:31
Speaker 7: Schools have not been open since Saturday, I mean since
31:34
Speaker 7: since Sunday. In effect, Sunday is a business day in Israel,
31:38
Speaker 7: so and they've just announced today that schools are not
31:40
Speaker 7: coming back at least until next Sunday, so some of
31:44
Speaker 7: the parents, you don't need to stay home with your children.
31:46
Speaker 7: And then we also have people who are just afraid
31:49
Speaker 7: because Israeli still under missile attacks from the south from Gaza.
31:53
Speaker 7: This is affecting mostly the southern part of Israel, but
31:57
Speaker 7: also you know, every once in a while for parts
32:00
Speaker 7: like celebrating the Vicinity. So so what we're seeing basically is,
32:05
Speaker 7: you know, people working from home if they can, or
32:08
Speaker 7: not coming in to work. And this is very reminiscent
32:11
Speaker 7: to many people that that I speak to of COVID,
32:14
Speaker 7: of the first days of COVID, and you know, the
32:16
Speaker 7: first lockdowns. So so in some cases, you know, it's
32:21
Speaker 7: not you know, direct you instruction from the authorities. You know,
32:24
Speaker 7: don't don't leave the house like a lockdown. In some
32:27
Speaker 7: places it is, in some places it isn't, but but
32:30
Speaker 7: it was reminiscent of that. And I think it's just
32:33
Speaker 7: worth noting and and that some businesses and some international
32:38
Speaker 7: businesses that operate in Israel, and talking about some retail stores,
32:43
Speaker 7: you know, h and m ikei Ikia, I know that
32:48
Speaker 7: these stores for examples, have been shut down for the
32:51
Speaker 7: last few days so so obviously business consumption is is
32:57
Speaker 7: definitely down these days.
32:58
Speaker 1: Yes, what do we know about this new unity government
33:02
Speaker 1: that mister Nata who has announced tell us about that.
33:08
Speaker 7: So this is O news from this afternoon. So actually
33:13
Speaker 7: this is in fact a new party, Benny Ganz's party.
33:19
Speaker 7: He was he an opprsition leader until just from this
33:23
Speaker 7: afternoon and he just joined forces with NATHANIAO. Nathaniel's government.
33:30
Speaker 7: His former government stays in effect. But what we're seeing
33:32
Speaker 7: now is Gansa's party join in basically to form a
33:37
Speaker 7: very narrow war managing cabinet. In this cabinet will see
33:42
Speaker 7: as its members of Nathaniel himself defense minister, you have
33:46
Speaker 7: Gallant and joining them will be Benny Ganz, who is
33:50
Speaker 7: a former defense minister, and two more members in the cabinet,
33:57
Speaker 7: one from Ganz's party and one from Nathaniel's party. And
34:01
Speaker 7: actually they will be leading any operations the war. You
34:07
Speaker 7: can say that we'll be moving on from moving forward
34:10
Speaker 7: from now on. These are people who are very experienced,
34:16
Speaker 7: mainly speaking about Gance and another member of his party Eisenkott,
34:20
Speaker 7: and of course Defense Minister Galan. They're all very senior
34:24
Speaker 7: former idea officers. Led the Israeli Army Glance was previously
34:30
Speaker 7: in charge of the Southern Command. He's very familiar with
34:32
Speaker 7: the Gazza Street and they're the ones who are going
34:34
Speaker 7: to be leading the war effort from here on.
34:38
Speaker 2: I wonder if this changes the picture in terms of,
34:42
Speaker 2: you know, regional allies of Iran. What have you heard
34:45
Speaker 2: from other Arab states, especially considering the fact that we
34:51
Speaker 2: know Iran funds Hamas, we know Iran funds Hesbalah, and they've.
34:58
Speaker 1: You know, been responsib for.
35:02
Speaker 2: Something that's beyond a military attack, really just targeting citizens.
35:06
Speaker 2: And I know that's happened in the past, but at
35:08
Speaker 2: this point, now the world has seen it. Do you
35:11
Speaker 2: expect any any pushback on Iran?
35:17
Speaker 7: That's a good question, and you know, I'm not sure.
35:20
Speaker 2: It just seems to lead that everyone is hesitant from
35:23
Speaker 2: from from here, it seems everyone is hesitant to push
35:26
Speaker 2: back on Iran. When the Wall Street Journal first reported
35:28
Speaker 2: that Iran knew about these attacks and even was involved
35:31
Speaker 2: in the planning, or that the IRGC was involved in
35:33
Speaker 2: the planning, we had, you know, the Secretary of Defense saying, well,
35:38
Speaker 2: we haven't seen any evidence, you know, not eager to
35:42
Speaker 2: draw Iran into this because it makes things more difficult.
35:44
Speaker 2: On the other hand, we all know they're funding Hamas.
35:48
Speaker 7: Yeah, well well yeah, you know, the relationship between Iran
35:52
Speaker 7: and Hamas and Iran and Frisbelle as a slightly different one.
35:56
Speaker 7: You're right to say that Iran finances both Hamas and
35:59
Speaker 7: his Bala with Haramas, It's it's on a much lower scale.
36:03
Speaker 7: I'm talking about the financing, and there there are different
36:07
Speaker 7: They're a different organization because you know, there are Sunni
36:12
Speaker 7: Ramas is a sony organization, so they are cooperating with
36:16
Speaker 7: Iran and they're getting money from them, but they don't
36:19
Speaker 7: necessarily take orders from Iran, even if they're coordinated with them.
36:23
Speaker 7: I know it sounds a little complex, but it is.
36:26
Speaker 7: Whilezabella in the north of Israel is one hundred percent Iran,
36:31
Speaker 7: it's just you know, a proxy organization, the militant organization
36:34
Speaker 7: that is backed by Iran, that is led by around
36:37
Speaker 7: that is you know, taking orders from Iran. So and
36:40
Speaker 7: on your question, I think that you know, maybe what
36:43
Speaker 7: speaks loudest at this time is that you know, when
36:45
Speaker 7: we see the US carrier, the drive forward carrier, that
36:49
Speaker 7: is now you know around Israeli waters. You know, this
36:54
Speaker 7: is very extraordinary, slight. I would put it like that,
37:01
Speaker 7: I don't remember anything, you know, this sort happening at
37:05
Speaker 7: least over you know, the last decades. So this is
37:09
Speaker 7: like a warning sign which which may be a reinforcement
37:12
Speaker 7: of what you just said. You know, people don't countries
37:15
Speaker 7: don't wanting you know, and all out don't want an
37:18
Speaker 7: all out war. So they're putting you know, their biggest
37:20
Speaker 7: like you know, warning signs and you know, telling Iran
37:23
Speaker 7: don't get involved, not through football, not directly, and so
37:29
Speaker 7: so it's safe to assume that yes, maybe you know,
37:31
Speaker 7: the nations don't want an all out war at this time,
37:34
Speaker 7: and Israel definitely you know, wants to concentrate on Gaza now,
37:39
Speaker 7: but keep saying that it is very well prepared for
37:41
Speaker 7: anything that happens in the Northwest.
37:43
Speaker 1: Fastball Very good, All right, Glee, thank you so much
37:46
Speaker 1: once again for joining us. Khalita Alstein. She's a reporter
37:49
Speaker 1: with Bloomberg News. She's based in Tel Aviv, and we
37:51
Speaker 1: really appreciate getting some of her time during this very
37:54
Speaker 1: very difficult time for all Israeli citizens. And we'll see
37:58
Speaker 1: what type of response that we get from Israel, but
38:01
Speaker 1: all I guess indications are that it's going to be
38:04
Speaker 1: severe as we look at the call ups and so on.
38:07
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38:36
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38:38
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38:41
Speaker 1: to be a fan. I was there for Letterman and
38:43
Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff.
38:43
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, dude, I remember Letterman from the very beginning.
38:46
Speaker 1: But I mean, but I understand that's where the cool
38:48
Speaker 1: kids hang is kind of late night TV, which brings
38:51
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38:53
Speaker 1: Max Abelson. He's one of our star reporters for Bloomberg news,
38:57
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38:59
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39:03
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Originals.
39:07
Speaker 5: Yeah, my ego is too big now actually to talk,
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39:12
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39:16
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39:19
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39:23
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39:28
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39:30
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39:31
Speaker 1: And really good.
39:32
Speaker 5: I mean, we had a really big challenge, which is
39:34
Speaker 5: that Business Week is like a good thing as is.
39:37
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39:39
Speaker 5: when I have my best journalism of the year, if
39:42
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39:45
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39:48
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39:51
Speaker 5: like magazine and TV are different things. But we have
39:54
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39:57
Speaker 5: of like sitting there, you know, kind of suck with
40:00
Speaker 5: the issue that week, although I'm sure we would have
40:02
Speaker 5: fun if.
40:02
Speaker 1: We had to do that.
40:03
Speaker 5: What we've done, gentlemen, is take the themes that would
40:07
Speaker 5: normally kind of course below the surface of business journalism
40:10
Speaker 5: and Business Week, specifically ambition, risk, failure, genius, imagination, and
40:17
Speaker 5: we've dedicated episodes to each of them. And then we've
40:19
Speaker 5: brought on, like, honestly like kind of astounding people whose
40:23
Speaker 5: lives and careers and ideas, like honestly like have something
40:28
Speaker 5: to say about those themes. Like I've learned a lot
40:30
Speaker 5: like sitting at the table talking to people. It's been
40:32
Speaker 5: fun and it's been eye opening.
40:34
Speaker 2: All right, So what's the format you're gonna go on?
40:36
Speaker 2: This show is going to go out every Thursday at
40:38
Speaker 2: ten thirty on Bloomberg TV. I'm like, I'm guessing we're
40:40
Speaker 2: gonna be able to watch it on Bloomer dot com
40:42
Speaker 2: or somewhere online the next day. And then so is
40:45
Speaker 2: it an hour?
40:46
Speaker 1: Two?
40:47
Speaker 2: Do you have one guest for? How does it work?
40:50
Speaker 5: Thank you for asking. These are questions that remind me
40:51
Speaker 5: of my mom, Patty Abelson has been asking just these
40:54
Speaker 5: exact questions. All right, So look, it's gonna start with
40:57
Speaker 5: a kind of essayistic introduction. My only complaint about this
41:01
Speaker 5: whole series is that we have we we filmed me
41:04
Speaker 5: walking through the streets of New York, and I have
41:06
Speaker 5: to memorize my essay.
41:08
Speaker 2: And it is not easy. No one just called a
41:12
Speaker 2: monolog by the way, let's call it a monologue.
41:15
Speaker 1: Monologue.
41:15
Speaker 5: I have no teleprompter, so I'm in the streets of
41:18
Speaker 5: New York. I give a little opening essay. Then then
41:20
Speaker 5: I come to the studio, which, let me just say,
41:23
Speaker 5: my colleagues, like carpentered a studio. We're not talking like
41:27
Speaker 5: led screens. Is here here one floor up for listeners.
41:33
Speaker 5: I can't see this, but we are on the fifth floor.
41:35
Speaker 2: They can if they're streaming on YouTube. We're you look
41:38
Speaker 2: into the camera. They're not in the building.
41:40
Speaker 5: They're not in the building, so they would know it's
41:41
Speaker 5: but it's on the sixth floor, and it's yeah. I
41:43
Speaker 5: mean when I say carpentered, I mean like woodworkers made.
41:46
Speaker 5: It looks like kind of an eccentric editor in chief
41:50
Speaker 5: of it.
41:50
Speaker 2: Looks so cool.
41:51
Speaker 1: Seventy eight.
41:52
Speaker 5: It is beautiful, and there's something about the vibe. I mean, actually,
41:55
Speaker 5: I've always loved the studio where we are now, but
41:57
Speaker 5: there's something about the vibe where I feel like even
42:00
Speaker 5: interesting or powerful or complicated people come in and it's
42:04
Speaker 5: like it almost reminds me of like a therapist's office
42:06
Speaker 5: or something about it where I find that people are
42:08
Speaker 5: willing to open up and I'm definitely willing to meet
42:10
Speaker 5: them where they are. But there our guests so far
42:13
Speaker 5: have been really willing to meet us where we are,
42:15
Speaker 5: which is taking these themes seriously. It's not easy to
42:18
Speaker 5: talk about failure, it's not easy to talk about ambition.
42:20
Speaker 5: But I find that there's something about the space, and
42:22
Speaker 5: there's something about my colleagues, Eduino Tira. I have to say,
42:24
Speaker 5: our director and producer is really one of my favorite
42:26
Speaker 5: people I've ever worked with, combined thanks to Business Week,
42:29
Speaker 5: thanks to the show, thanks to the set, my colleagues,
42:32
Speaker 5: there's something that I think is kind of special about it,
42:34
Speaker 5: and I feel like, like I hope it'll I think
42:37
Speaker 5: it might be kind of like unlike anything we've ever
42:39
Speaker 5: done here.
42:39
Speaker 2: It does look, like, I have to agree, a really
42:42
Speaker 2: cool space and very unique and kind of different, a
42:46
Speaker 2: step away from reality without being like fake, you know,
42:50
Speaker 2: but just like a therapist's office. I think is a
42:52
Speaker 2: great description because you're sort of putting the world on
42:55
Speaker 2: pause to have these discussions. So who are the guests
42:58
Speaker 2: that you've.
42:58
Speaker 5: Had on Well, I'll tell you about the guys, but
43:00
Speaker 5: first I just want to respond to a very beautiful
43:02
Speaker 5: thing you just said, a step away from reality. It's
43:04
Speaker 5: been very I thought a lot about how to make television,
43:08
Speaker 5: which is very different from what I normally do. You know,
43:10
Speaker 5: I'm a writer, like I'm a reporter here. I've spent
43:12
Speaker 5: a long time here, my whole professional life in this building,
43:16
Speaker 5: thirteen years. I think like writing and reporting and being
43:19
Speaker 5: on TV and even you know what, honestly being on radio.
43:23
Speaker 5: It involves a certain amount of theater, certain kind of performance,
43:26
Speaker 5: Like it makes me think about my voice when I'm
43:28
Speaker 5: talking now or when I'm on TV, Like I think
43:29
Speaker 5: about the way I look, you know, the way I
43:31
Speaker 5: move my hands. And we've really spent a long time
43:34
Speaker 5: talking as a group about how to make it as
43:36
Speaker 5: real as possible, even though I have to do some
43:38
Speaker 5: performative things, not.
43:41
Speaker 1: Move my hands in silly ways.
43:42
Speaker 5: You know, not talk too much. We've really tried to
43:46
Speaker 5: keep it as connected to reality as print journalism can be.
43:51
Speaker 5: Now let me tell you about the guests.
43:52
Speaker 2: But with the set that evokes a like nineteen seventies newsroom,
43:56
Speaker 2: Thank you, but what you wanted to see today in
43:58
Speaker 2: any news so you're trying to get real. But also
44:02
Speaker 2: it's I aroays reminded kind of like a mister Rogers neighborhood. Oh,
44:06
Speaker 2: like the you know the set in taxi, Like basically
44:08
Speaker 2: one set that's different from everything else, but that you
44:11
Speaker 2: want to be paying attention to that.
44:12
Speaker 5: You're talking my language. We have a signed photo of
44:14
Speaker 5: Fred Rodgers in the signed to me as a little boy.
44:17
Speaker 1: Thanks, thanks my dad.
44:18
Speaker 5: But let me just talk about the guests. So for
44:20
Speaker 5: this week's episode, Genius Thursday Night, we have a ninety
44:24
Speaker 5: one year old genius, Bert Malkiel, who who's writing a
44:27
Speaker 5: gentleman probably walk down Wall Sheet, which is a book
44:30
Speaker 5: about how genius doesn't actually exist in the markets. He
44:33
Speaker 5: is so interesting, has so much to say, it's it's
44:36
Speaker 5: such a distinct version of genius. Then we have a
44:38
Speaker 5: seventeen year old genius who won the spelling Bee. I'm
44:41
Speaker 5: going to say very little about her because she is
44:43
Speaker 5: such a surprise and she has I think she is
44:46
Speaker 5: my most genius guest, but I'm not going to say
44:49
Speaker 5: too much more about her. And then we have more
44:51
Speaker 5: of a Jah who is the genius. In fact, he
44:54
Speaker 5: literally one genius grant. He is a guy who thinks
44:58
Speaker 5: about all the garbage that floating around our orbit, all
45:02
Speaker 5: the dead all the dead stuff that we sent out satellites,
45:05
Speaker 5: but then they died and they're just there. It's this
45:07
Speaker 5: new kind of trash.
45:08
Speaker 1: And he really did.
45:10
Speaker 5: Blow my mind the way that he talked about the
45:12
Speaker 5: difference between jualized genius and a kind of collective genius,
45:15
Speaker 5: and the way that you can learn from other people
45:17
Speaker 5: instead of just like being a genius yourself.
45:19
Speaker 2: Standing on the shoulders of giants exactly.
45:21
Speaker 5: I found it, honestly, very moving. I was told I
45:23
Speaker 5: had to stop nodding along because I was not on
45:25
Speaker 5: the long term.
45:26
Speaker 2: That's how much I enjoyed it. That sounds awesome. I
45:29
Speaker 2: can't wait to see this, honestly.
45:30
Speaker 1: And so what's the difference between kind of your what
45:33
Speaker 1: you have been doing, interviewing, call people on the phone,
45:36
Speaker 1: calling your sources and that kind of thing. As opposed
45:38
Speaker 1: to now you're sitting, you know, face to face with
45:41
Speaker 1: these people oftentimes, and that's a little different vibe.
45:44
Speaker 5: Right Oh, the vibe is tremendously different. Like right now
45:46
Speaker 5: I'm looking at you, you know, and we're talking like
45:49
Speaker 5: I don't want to I'm on the mood to confront you,
45:51
Speaker 5: you know, I don't want to press you on the
45:52
Speaker 5: most difficult things that if you've ever had to live through,
45:55
Speaker 5: or like, you know, if you were a prominent business person,
45:58
Speaker 5: you're your most prominent in barres because embarrassment comes with success.
46:02
Speaker 5: No one has success without failure. To sit across this
46:05
Speaker 5: table in the BusinessWeek shows set and to talk to
46:08
Speaker 5: people about pain and uncertainty and embarrassment, or even just
46:15
Speaker 5: to talk to them about their ambition or to talk
46:18
Speaker 5: about their genius or to talk about their imagination, there's
46:21
Speaker 5: something that's very awkward about it. I'm very interested in
46:25
Speaker 5: trying to re examine the journalistic encounter, you know, I
46:28
Speaker 5: love my favorite My favorite journalist is Janet Malcolm, who
46:31
Speaker 5: writes beautifully about the kind of betrayals that happen every
46:34
Speaker 5: time there's a journalistic encounter. Because the journalist is going
46:37
Speaker 5: to tell a story and the subject has a very
46:39
Speaker 5: different story. And it's been really fun for me to
46:42
Speaker 5: see in real time how different it is to stare
46:45
Speaker 5: your subject in the eyes. And it's spooky.
46:49
Speaker 2: That's very cool. I mean, we love your stories that
46:53
Speaker 2: you write for Bloomberg, but I can imagine it's very
46:55
Speaker 2: different because you get to kind of script everything. You
46:57
Speaker 2: totally create the narrative by yourself or know with your editors,
47:01
Speaker 2: whereas here you can script the questions and you can
47:05
Speaker 2: stage the interview, but it's gonna go where it goes.
47:08
Speaker 1: Yes, yes, you know.
47:08
Speaker 5: Hearing you say that reminds me that you know, my
47:10
Speaker 5: beat in a way is money and power, when when
47:12
Speaker 5: I ask, honestly, my beat is like semi made up
47:14
Speaker 5: but Wall Street culture of Wall Street money and power.
47:18
Speaker 5: It really has got me thinking about the way that
47:20
Speaker 5: we have power, like journalists have power. We shape stories,
47:24
Speaker 5: we bring perspective. I mean, I believe that one of
47:28
Speaker 5: the things that makes Bloomberg News and Business Meek great
47:31
Speaker 5: is that we wield our power well and that we
47:33
Speaker 5: wield it with fairness and we wield it with authority.
47:36
Speaker 5: But it's been fun to feel powerful and also to
47:39
Speaker 5: feel a little powerless. I don't know what people are
47:42
Speaker 5: going to say. I don't know if they're gonna dislike
47:43
Speaker 5: my questions. I don't know if our vibe is going
47:45
Speaker 5: to be weird. And that's a powerless position to be in.
47:47
Speaker 5: I have the power.
47:48
Speaker 1: I have some power because I'm.
47:49
Speaker 5: Asking questions, but but it's been a very powerless experience,
47:53
Speaker 5: and it's it's been really fun to taste. What's the
47:55
Speaker 5: name of the show, The Business Week Show?
47:57
Speaker 1: The Business Week Show on Bloomberg Television on Thursday nights,
48:01
Speaker 1: ten thirty pm, Wall Street Time, Boom Mark that, Max Abelson,
48:05
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us.
48:08
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcasts. You can
48:11
Speaker 2: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever
48:15
Speaker 2: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter
48:19
Speaker 2: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.
48:21
Speaker 1: And I'm Faul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney.
48:24
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide at
48:27
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio.