Latest / Toadstool Sports / Thursday BEST BETS | Never Listen to Me Again | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/25/26

Transcript

Thursday BEST BETS | Never Listen to Me Again | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/25/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm man, a hole in
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: your chips, the black coffee on the felt.
• 0:23
  Speaker 2: Man, you look like a mess.
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Three teen Parlette turned the dust in your head. Now
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: you stare at the chips like they made you this man.
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: But don't you go quiet.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the floor.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Your name still mean something on somebody for show. Put
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: the glass down, baby, look at me.
• 0:46
  Speaker 4: Nine.
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on nothing.
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: Nice now, hold on, hold on.
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: Me that.
• 1:10
  Speaker 4: But it don't get the crown. Hold on, hold on.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: Stay with me, now, what's up?
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: Everybody's towed back with you With Toadsool Sports for Thursday,
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: June twenty fifth. I always have to look. I'm like,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: I don't know what date it is. Never listen to
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: me again. Yesterday we got the first game right with
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: the Cleveland Indians, even though they blew the game and
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: the ninth inning, I think they won an extra innings
• 1:47
  Speaker 3: four to three. The other baseball game, A's could not
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: score any runs, so it was a push. It was
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: zero zero through the fifth in engage jump pitch pretty well.
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: I don't know how the put up no offense yet again,
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: and then they took a one nothing lead in the
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: eighth inning, and then they lost that they blew the
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: game in the ninth inning. I think so really ridiculous there. Then,
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: of course the WNBA. I was correct about all of
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: the other WNBA sides except for the one that was
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: my play. I thought it was a really good spot.
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: If you had told me that who are we playing?
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: I don't even remember who we faded, Washington. If you
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: had told me that Washington was gonna put up seventy
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: six points or whatever in the entire game, I would
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: have been like, yeah, obviously we're gonna lay the points
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: here in Minnesota. Like seventy six points is so low
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: in the WNBA, Like Minnesota's obviously winning that game by
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: double digits. No, they were losing for a decent chunk
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: of the game, and then they took the lead in
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: the fourth quarter. They played well later in the game,
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: but it still wasn't enough if you look at the
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: box score of that game. I don't know what happened
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: in that game. Just I don't know what else to say.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: I have nothing else to really say about it. I mean,
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: it was not a winner. It probably shouldn't have been,
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: although again, the fact that Washington scored so few points.
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: It probably should have been a win if Minnesota could
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: have done anything on offense in the game. And then
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: the Czech Republic. Yeah, I know they lost three to nothing,
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: but that was not what it looked like at all.
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: Like neither team put up any offense. The game was
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: zero zero till like the fifty five minute mark or something,
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: and Mexico scored twice in like a span of six minutes,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: and then the other goal was just some garbage bullshit
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: in extra time. If you look at the offensive statistics,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: that should have been like a zero zero draw, like
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: neither team did anything on offense, which, yeah, like part
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: of the handicap is the Czech Republic is gonna have
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: to do something on offense here, and they didn't. But
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: Mexico their performance was not a three goal performance by
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: any stretch. I think they only had like a couple
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: of scoring chances and they just happened to score a
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: goal on every one of them. It was, yeah, bullshit,
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: like it probably should. Maybe you could argue it was
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: like a one nothing Mexico win, but I still think
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: it was the right play. I mean, there are gonna
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: be professionals that make the argument that well, Mexico was
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: not favored as heavily as they should be given how
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: much better they are than their opponent there, because everybody
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: knows that it's a must win for the Czech Republic.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: And I'm like, yeah, well, I make that point myself
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: in you know, football whatever, like when you have a
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: must win. But I think it mostly applies to a favorite.
• 4:31
  Speaker 3: Like if a team is favored by five points and
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: they're in a must win and they should be like
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: a three point favorite, then yeah, I don't really want
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: to lay the points because they're not gonna really necessarily
• 4:41
  Speaker 3: try to win that game by margin. They just need
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: to win and the pressure's on and they're supposed to win.
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: But I think it's completely different when it's an underdog
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: and you're playing the team that's not even expected to
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: win and they're the only team that's motivated in the game, Like,
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: I think that is a shot that you want to take.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna have a SI World Cup play today.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: Nobody is gonna like it, which I like plays that
• 5:04
  Speaker 3: nobody likes. So I'm gonna make another World Cup play
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: here and try to get back on track. We're three
• 5:09
  Speaker 3: and one in the World Cup, right now, and I'm
• 5:11
  Speaker 3: gonna have one baseball play here on a short baseball card. Josh,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: what's up, Kyle, what's up? Thanks for hanging out everybody.
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: I don't know what I don't know what we mean
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: by that just it was a complete like that play
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: was just motivational entirely. Like I just I did not
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: even think Mexico would really necessarily show up, even though, oh,
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: they need to win in front of their home crowd.
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: Well not really, I mean they've already they'd already won,
• 5:45
  Speaker 3: they'd already won the group. They had nothing to play for.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: So that means we're gonna lose our play today too.
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: And you probably already know what it's gonna be. No
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: one is gonna like it. It's it's uglier than that
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: one yesterday. Red Sox yank tonight. I can't do it.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna be around. I can't do it tonight.
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: I might consider it, but I don't even want to
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: be in that atmosphere where nobody's gonna get up for
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox are obviously gonna lose, but nobody's gonna
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: be like the rivalry is dead, Like the atmosphere is
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: not what it should be. And not what it used
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: to be. The fan base just does not get invested
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: in it, does not get excited about it. They don't
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: make it a hostile environment at all. Uh, it's yeah,
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: I don't like anything about it. The Red Sox. It's
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a horrible spot for the Red Sox too. I don't
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: want anything to do with it. Fuck. I don't even
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: want to talk about the Red Sox. Yes, let me
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: get get through these games because this is we have
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: a shorter baseball card today. I don't want this to
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: be a long show. Kansas City at Tampa Bay. These
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: teams are finishing a four game series here, so they're
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: playing early afternoon here, right after noontime. Tampa Bay avoided
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: getting swept because they won yesterday and a bounce back win.
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: Wasn't totally sure that was gonna happen, although I thought
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: it was gonna be mostly a lower scoring game, which
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: it kind of was. Not really any sort of look
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: ahead here, I don't think, but probably both teams are
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: gonna kind of be motivated here, maybe Tampa Bay a
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: little bit more motivated because you really don't want to
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: lose three to one at home to Kansas City. You know,
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: Kansas City does play the White Sox next. Tampa Bay
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: plays Arizona, so maybe a little bit more of a
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: look ahead there for Kansas City. Possibly. Kansas City used
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: three relief pitchers yesterday, but I don't know if they're
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: gonna overlook Tampa because Tampa has a pretty good record.
• 7:40
  Speaker 3: Tampa used four. I don't like either bullpen. I would
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: avoid both of them. Tampa is ranked fifteenth in whip,
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: but their ERA is way higher than all the teams
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: around them. This is not a very good bullpen. Royal's
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: bullpen is even worse at twenty eighth. Not good. Offensively,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: Royals have been a little bit better easily. They're up
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: to sixteenth, actually tied with Tampa Bay and the Angels
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: right now all in sixteenth place based on ops. Seth
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: Lugo is pitching for Kansas City. He's an okay pitcher.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: I mean he's a veteran three point six to ninety
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: ray one point three to five whip is a little
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: bit high. He's actually slightly better on the road three
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: point six Roady Ray. Lugo got hit in the head
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: with the line drive on June tenth against Texas. Came
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: back on the nineteenth and he pitched pretty well against
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis, although one red flag there was that he
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: had no strikeouts in that outing, even though he went
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: six innings and one in run, which is good, but
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: the complete lack of strikeouts little bit of a red
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: flag here. Even though he's not really a strikeout pitcher,
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: he does have kind of a low strikeout rate here. Definitely,
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is a little bit too high, a
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: hiss walk rate is not horrible. Overall, he's alright generally.
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: His numbers against Tampa Bay are very mediocre, slash kind
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: of bad. In forty one at bats to sixty eight
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: to average seven to seventy four ohps. That's a little
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: bit high seven to one strikeout walk ratios, all right.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: So his command is usually alright, like he doesn't walk
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: that many guys, but sometimes he is too hittable. He's
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: a little bit too hittable against Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: is going with a bullpen game. They have Casey Legumina
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: listed as their starter. He's only gonna go about one
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: inning here. I don't really think we need to go
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: into his numbers a whole lot here. He's given up
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: a run in each of his last couple short appearances though,
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: which I guess isn't great. I don't know what else
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: we have to say about this, but I believe the
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: Rays are mostly gonna be using Ian Seymour here. I
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: think it's his turn in the rotation, and he was
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: listed as the starter for a while, so I think
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: he's gonna come in after legumina. I think Seymour will
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: be in the game somewhere around the second inning and
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: probably go at least a few innings here. He's not
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: that great though, four point nine to eighty RA one
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: point two to nine whip guess indicates his era should
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: be a little bit better than that. He is better
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: at home three point four to two home RA. He's
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: been okay recently. He did make it five innings last
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: time out against Washington, who is a good offense, especially
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: when they're on the road, and that's where that was
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: it was in Tampa. Had four strikeouts, no walks in
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: that one, allowed three runs with seven hits. I don't
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: really know how to gauge Seymour really. I mean, his
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: strike out rate is actually pretty good, hit rate is
• 10:25
  Speaker 3: low as well, walk rate is too high. So his
• 10:28
  Speaker 3: problem does appear to be the walks for the most part,
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: although he didn't have any in his last outing and
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: Kansas City does not have really any experience against him.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: Only Rojas has ever faced him, and he's zero for one,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: no walks, no strikeouts. So this game, yeah, I mean
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: the money is coming in on Tampa Bay. I mean
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: it kind of makes sense from like a motivational perspective
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: based on the match up here, it might make sense.
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: I don't know if I really want to rely on
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: this Seymour bullpen game. I mean, Lugo is at least
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: an established starter, but I just showed you as matchup
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: numbers are not excellent. Minus one thirty something the price
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: on Tampa Bay eighty two percent of the tickets, ninety
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on them. Money is also
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: hitting the over pretty strongly, sixty six percent of the
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: tickets on the under, eighty eight percent of the cash
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: on the over at eight and a half. I might
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: agree with that. I mean, you could go full game
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: on that and you get two bad bullpens here, both
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: you know, starting pitching setups could have their issues here possibly,
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: so I wouldn't really disagree with an over there. Maybe
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: that is kind of the better way to look at it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: Although sometimes these offenses get distracted when they're kind of
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: ready to just get out of tound, you know. But
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: maybe that won't be the case here, because maybe both
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: teams will try to win. Seattle at Pittsburgh this series
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: UH is also finishing here. UH. It's a split one
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: to one series here, so I expect both teams probably
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: show up here. I was correct about Pittsburgh winning yesterday.
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: It looks like WU was really not good in the
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: game yesterday. I don't know exactly what's going on with them,
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: but I preferred Ashcraft in that game yesterday. I recommended
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh first five, which I'm pretty sure was a winner,
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: although I haven't looked at the box score, but they
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: won eleven to one. Pittsburgh only is one relief pitcher there.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: They saved all their better relief pitchers, so that's at
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: least good for them. Seattle used three relief pitchers. It
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: was a blowout though, so they didn't use any of
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: their better relievers either. Seattle does have a bullpen edge here.
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: They are ranked like fifteenth. I think where are they
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: at seventeenth? But they're better than that. Their era is
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: better than all these teams around them, they're I would
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: I think they're kind of like a top ten bullpen.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has ranked twenty at them bullpen, but they're not
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: anywhere near as good to Seattle. Pittsburgh number three in offense,
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: that is pretty good. They are the better offense. Seattle's
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: really falling off again. They're number twenty five, tied with
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox, so that tells you how not good
• 12:57
  Speaker 3: their offense has been. They're dealing with injuries though, so
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: like I don't know that they've had a full lineup
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: really at many points this entire season. It's always somebody
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: injured for Seattle, like cal Raley comes back and then
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: other guys are out, you know whatever. I think Crawford
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: and Arosa Rayner are still out. This on the surface
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: kind of looks like a decent pitching matchup. Bryce Miller
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Seattle. I think he is the more
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: trustworthy of the two pitchers here. He's got really good
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: numbers here one point five to eighty ray point seven
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: whip probably unsustainably good numbers there. But he's been good. Uh,
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: he's been a little bit worse on the road. Two
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: point two to two Roady Ray still really good though
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: it makes sense because Seattle is a pitcher friendly ballpark.
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: Miller has been good in all three starts this month.
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: He has a ridiculous twenty three to two strike out
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: walk ratio of that s man. Even going back through
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: like his entire season, his strike out walk ratio is
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: absurd forty three to five. He hasn't really pitched that much,
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: but in forty innings he's only a lot twenty three hits.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: These are all really good numbers here, so there's not
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: a lot to dislike here with Miller. His numbers against
• 14:05
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh pretty good as well, although they only have three
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: hitters who have ever faced him twenty three at bats,
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: they have no extra base hits, ten strikeouts, one walk,
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: one thirty average two ninety seven ops. So he basically
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: dominates the Pittsburgh hitters that he's seen before and the
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: rest of them haven't seen him, so that should be
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: an extra edge to him. I know Pittsburgh is a
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: good offense at home, but this might be the one.
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: This This is well not d one, but this is
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: one scenario where the pitching might have the edge against them.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: Baba Chandler is pitching for Pittsburgh, and while I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: he is a talented pitcher, he does look a little
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: bit better recently. He's still got some issues, mostly walks.
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: He's got a four point six to two ERA one
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: point three to eight whip not excellent here. He's not
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: as good at home five point two eight home ERA.
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: Like I said, he's been better recently though. He's allowed
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: two or fewer earned runs in his last three starts.
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: One was against the Brave, one was at Course Field,
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: so that's a decent sign he is pitching better here.
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: His walk rate has gone down a bit here in
• 15:07
  Speaker 3: these recent outings, so he seems to be kind of
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: figuring some stuff out. He's still young, he is talented.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: He hasn't allowed very many hits at all. His strikeout
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: rate is okay, although I think it should probably be higher,
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: but his walk rate still remains too high. But again,
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: it looks like he is kind of turning it around
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: and pitching better recently. And the Mariners have never seen
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: him before, so that does give him an extra advantage.
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: He's facing an offense that's not the most powerful offense here,
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: so maybe he will actually do okay this game. When
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: I first looked at it, I was kind of thinking under,
• 15:40
  Speaker 3: and maybe that is the right approach here. The totals
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: eight and a half. I don't love Pittsburgh's bullpen though,
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: although they are rested, so I don't know. Maybe a
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: first five under kind of makes sense here. The money
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: is backing the over though, fifty eight percent of tickets
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: on the under, sixty percent of the cash on the over,
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean something to consider here, although I
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: think a first five under makes sense, but Seattle might
• 16:04
  Speaker 3: make sense on the side too. I mean, there's still
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: the team that just has the better pitching throughout this game,
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: and they're the better team, but they are favored for
• 16:11
  Speaker 3: that reason. They're minus one forty something here, and the
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: money is fading them sixty eight percent of the tickets
• 16:16
  Speaker 3: on Seattle, eighty six percent of the cash on Pittsburgh.
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: So that kind of that does back the underthinking because
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: of the money is backing the pitcher that's less trustworthy.
• 16:27
  Speaker 3: That's sort of it's not really a fade of that
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: better pitcher, you know what I mean. It's more of
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: like a we think there's value on this team, uh,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: but also it kind of means we're going to back
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: this other Pitcher here, so to me, that kind of
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: as an indicator towards the under there. But yeah, I
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: would slightly lean to Seattle, but I think a first
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: five under might be a little bit better than that.
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I don't like the game that much though,
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: A's at San Francisco and the A's are actually trying
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: to avoid getting swept here. I don't know what's going
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: on in the serial. Well, I mean you could see
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: what's going on in the series. The A's have not
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: scored at all. I mean San Francisco hasn't scored much either,
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: and that's expected because their offense is not good. The
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: A's offense is way more potent, So I don't know
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: what's going on with them in this series. And I
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: believe we've taken a loss and a push in this
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: series on the show, so that's obviously not good. The
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: A's are the number six ranked offense. The Giants are
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: ranked twelve, tied with the White Sox, but they're nowhere
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: near that good again, they just had some real outlier
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: performances since then. This has been a struggling offense again,
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: so I think the Giants are like a bottom ten offense.
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: They're not good bullpen usage. San Francisco does have the
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: better bullpen. They did use four relief pitchers yesterday, but
• 17:39
  Speaker 3: they're still fairly rested. Recently. The Aas used four as well,
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: a little bit less rested, and they're not a good bullpen.
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: Sar Francisco is twenty third, but their era is a
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: little bit better than that, so their bullpen is better
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: than that. The a Is are ranked twenty fourth. Their
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: bullpen is quite bad. They're probably like bottom five A's
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: are using Jeff Springs here. He's not great. Five point
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: five to five RRA one point three to five whip
• 18:06
  Speaker 3: I guess indicates his ERA should be a little bit
• 18:08
  Speaker 3: lower than that, and he is better on the road,
• 18:10
  Speaker 3: which makes sense because the A's stadium is just destructive
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: to pitchers, so four point two eight road era is
• 18:16
  Speaker 3: definitely more tolerable. He's been really bad recently, but almost
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: all the starts have been at home, but still his
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: road starts recently haven't really been that good either, and
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: one of them was at San Diego, so that's not
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: exactly a great sign. He's not a good form right now.
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: He's a lot four plus runs in all but one
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: of his most recent outings going back to late may
• 18:39
  Speaker 3: not great here. He's got an okay ish strikeout rate,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: his walk rate is actually somewhat low, hit rate is
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: too high. He's also a looted a ton of home runs,
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: although granted some of that's because of the stadium that
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: he has to pitch in at home, but he's definitely
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: two home run conducive. We faded him in his last
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: game with an over that Anaheim game. That was an
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: easy win with that over and he part of that
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: handicap is that he's very fly ball heavy. But he
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: is pitching at San Francisco here, so that should actually
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: be a better matchup for him. He's got good numbers
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: against them in sixty eight at bats fifteen to one
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: strikeout walker ratio that is really good. One sixty two
• 19:19
  Speaker 3: average allowed four h nine ohps. So this is a
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: matchup where I think Springs should pitch better. Like I
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: think this should be a good start from him. I
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: would that would be my assumption based on what we
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: could see here, even though I worry about how bad
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: his form currently is, but this does look like a
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: match up where he should do well. A team that
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: has not had success against it. It's a good pitching
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: environment here against a weak offense. Landon Route is pitching
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: for the Giants here. He's alright, a four point one
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: five ERA one point two to nine whip not as
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: good at home for some reason. Four point sixty five
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: home e RA, even though it's a more pitcher friendly
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: ballpark doesn't totally makes sense. He was good in his
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: last start at Miami. He had a high strikeout rate there,
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: didn't allow many runs, went deep into the game, which
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: is a good sign because he struggled in the previous
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: start against the Cubs, but he has bad numbers against
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: the Cubs, so he definitely started coming back into form.
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: It looks like here mostly, I think because he had
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: faced some more powerful offenses prior to that, the Cubs
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: twice in Milwaukee or the Milwaukee not really a power
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: hitting team, but they do score a lot of runs.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: So Miami was a bit of a It was like
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: a reprieve for him. But facing the A's is not
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: going to be easy. The A's are obviously a good offense.
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: A Route does have a pretty low hit rate here.
• 20:41
  Speaker 3: His walk rate is a bit too high. That's his
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: one issue really, and he does have a high strikeout rate,
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: especially for a guy that doesn't really throw that hard.
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: He mostly relies on really hard breaking stuff, like sharp
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: breaking stuff, which does seem to be doing well though
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: for the most part he gets a lot of swings
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: and misses and a lot of ground balls with that.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: Against the A's he actually has been pretty good in
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: fourteen at bats. I know it's not a lot of
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: at bats here, but most of their hitters have faced
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: him to fourteen average six to seventy ops. So I
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: think the under probably makes the most sense here, but
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: in the first five, because I would not touch the
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: A's bullpen. I don't love either bullpen, but I think
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: an under first five might be the way to go
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: with this game. Pitchers eras don't look that good, but
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: this looks like a good matchup really for both pitchers.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: Here kind of fifty three percent of tickets sixty three
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on the over though, totals at
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: eight and a half or eight on the full game,
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: so you're probably looking at about four and a half
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: in the first five, which is pretty reasonable really. If
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: you can find that the Giants are favored at around
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: minus one thirty sixty one percent of the tickets and
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: cash on them. I don't know if I like that
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: the A's trying to avoid the sweet peer the Giants. Uh,
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: let me see who are they playing next? The other
• 21:56
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I think they're playing Atlanta. They are,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: so the Giants have a pretty big series next against Atlanta,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: so it is possible they start looking ahead because they've
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: already won the series. And I don't know if the
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: Giant should really be favored like this. To be honest,
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: I don't know that they're the better team here. Man.
• 22:12
  Speaker 3: The A's definitely have the better offense. The bullpen is
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: obviously a problem for the A's, but I think you
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: might be able to grab the A's first five if
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: you can still find the A's as an underdog in
• 22:23
  Speaker 3: the first five. I think that makes some sense because
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: I actually think I like Springs in this matchup a
• 22:27
  Speaker 3: little bit better than Raupe, who hasn't been that good
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: against these better offenses. But again, the A's offense is
• 22:34
  Speaker 3: really struggling in this series though, and they haven't done
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: well against Roup in the past. So even though yeah,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: there might be some value with A's first five as
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: an underdog, I think first five under probably makes the
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: most sense in that game. Uh, Houston and Detroit. This
• 22:49
  Speaker 3: is a new series starting. Detroit just lost again to
• 22:52
  Speaker 3: the Yankees yesterday. It was a fairly competitive series, but
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: they lost the last two of them. Detroit is staying
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: at home here. Houston is traveling in from Toronto, so
• 23:03
  Speaker 3: it's not a huge travel spot for them, So not horrible.
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: Houston just beat Toronto yesterday to win that series. Houston,
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: with their pitching, is actually kind of coming around a
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: little bit. Houston did use three relief pitchers yesterday. I
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: still don't fully trust their bullpen. Detroit used two relief pitchers.
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: I don't like either bullpen here. Still, Houston's gotten way
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: better though. They're actually nineteenth now. Though their bullpen the
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: R ray is still pretty bad, but they've definitely been
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: you know, they've moved up. They're not one of the
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: worst bullpens anymore. Detroit's bullpend their E ray is actually
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: well below four now the rank sixteenth, so this is
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: actually a decent bullpend. Both bullpens have actually been better recently,
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: so maybe you don't really need to avoid the bullpens here,
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: although I still might in what I would recommend here,
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: this is not I have won baseball playing this is
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: not it. Houston has tied an eighth in offense with
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: the Braves and the Twins, and who are they playing?
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: I forget already. Detroit is twentieth, So yeah, Houston has
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: the better offense here. Detroit does typically play better at home, though,
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: Houston is going with Tatsuya e Mai. Who is This
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: guy is just completely all over the place, man, He
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: is so unpredictable. He's got a six point one five
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: ERA one point four to four whip Those are pretty
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: bad numbers. He's better on the road slightly five point
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: seven to one Roady Ray, and he did have eleven
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: strikeouts and no walks in his last outing, really really
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: good outing from him there. He was just shredding Cleveland
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: in that start. But Cleveland's offense is one of the
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: weakest in baseball right now, especially with those injuries. So
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: how do you really gauge that? I don't know, because
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: Emi actually has been He's been pretty good in four
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: of his last five starts, and in three of his
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: last four he has He's kind of gotten his walk
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: right down too, except for this one start against the
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: A's where he still didn't allow that many runs in
• 24:56
  Speaker 3: that one, so I was referring to that as a
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: good start. He was really bad against Kansas City. But
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: the rest of these reasons starts have actually been good,
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: so he seems to be improving. And you can see
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: here he has a twenty to four strikeout walk race
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: here this month. So his ERA being seven point seven
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: to one this month is pretty misleading because his command
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: has been good. He's allowed too many hits though, but
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: a lot of it was that one start against Kansas City.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: You look at his overall numbers, his hit rate is
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: actually low, his strikeout rate is high, and his issue
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: is the walks. His walk rate is way too high.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: But like I said, it's been getting better. So I
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: don't know what to do with him. He seems to
• 25:31
  Speaker 3: maybe be adjusting to the majors here finally, because this
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: is his first season in the majors and he's still
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: kind of young at twenty eight. He was in the
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: Japanese leagues until now. Also, he's facing Detroit here if
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: they don't really have much experience against him. Only Outman
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: has ever faced him. He is one for two with
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: a single, no strikeouts, no walks. I don't know what
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: to do with this game. This game is really difficult, man,
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: and Troy Melton is pitching for Detroit. He's been good,
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: you know. He's a guy that they had as kind
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: of a long relief man, spot starter. He's been effective though,
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: even though he doesn't strike guys out. He's got a
• 26:06
  Speaker 3: two point five to six ERA point nine to five whip.
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: Not good at home really though, four point h nine
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: home y ra. But it's all being skewed by one
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: start at home against Minnesota, and he pitched well at
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: home last time against the White Sox. One hit them
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: through six innings. He did walk three guys, but that's
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: pretty good that you could do that against the White Sox.
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: So Melton, I think he's good. He's allowed two or
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: fewer earn runs and all but one start here so far,
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: or all but one outing. I'm not sure if they
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: might have used an opener in front of him in
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: one of these. I don't know. He's got a low
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: hit rate, low walk rate, and his strikeout rate is
• 26:41
  Speaker 3: also low. But he's just not putting guys on base,
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: which is good. Against Houston, they don't have much experience
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: against him. Three of their hitters have faced him. They're
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: zero for two with a strikeout in a walk this game.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know, it sounds maybe a little crazy,
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: but I think this game kind of looks like at
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: first five under. Uh, the total is kind of high
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: though at nine. I mean, these pictures are just all
• 27:08
  Speaker 3: over the place, sixty percent or EMI is all over
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: the place. I mean Melton is actually the more steady
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: pitcher here. Sixty five percent of tickets on the under,
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: ninety three percent of the cash on the over. I
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: would say, if you're gonna go under here, I think
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: you should limit it to the first five. If you're
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: gonna go over, he should include the bullpens still and
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: go full game with that, even though the bullpen's have
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: been better recently. Maybe Detroit is the better way to
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: look here, because Melton is still more trustworthy than EMI,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: even though he's not a good strikeout pitcher, and Emi is.
• 27:38
  Speaker 3: But Melton, you're getting like a Pickham price here minus
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: one ten sixty per tickets, ninety four percent of the
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: cash on Detroit here, maybe a slight travel edge for
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: Detroit because they are staying at home here. You know,
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it's a letdown or hangover necessarily
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: off of a Yankee series. Maybe that would slightly warry,
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: But the money is back in Detroit here, so yeah,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I think leaning towards Detroit makes some
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: sense here. You might be able to leave their bullpen
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: in that equation too, because I think they do still
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: have the better bullpend there. All right, Philadelphia and Washington,
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: they're finishing their series even though it is a night game,
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: which is interesting. It probably means both teams don't have
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: a whole lot of travel to do into their next series.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia has won the last two games here, so they're
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: up to one in the series. I still think it's
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: kind of a big series for both teams, though maybe
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: a little bit bigger for Washington because they don't want
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: to lose the series three to one. Philadelphia may start
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: looking ahead because Philadelphia is ahead of Washington in the
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: standings as well, and Philadelphia is the overall better team
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: here too, in my opinion, all the Washington's had the
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: better hitting. Philadelphia is favored on the road by a lot,
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: although part of that is because they have their best
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: starting pitcher pitching. But Washington's also not that good at home,
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: so that's something to consider. Is Philadelphia gonna be looking
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: ahead at all? I don't know. They're playing the Mets next,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: so again yet I mean, not a huge travel them
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: out for them. I don't know if they're really going
• 29:10
  Speaker 3: to look ahead to the last place Mets, but I
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: don't know. Maybe. I mean it's another divisional series that
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: does have teams with huge like markets behind them. You know,
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Washington is going to be playing their rival Baltimore next,
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: so not a huge travel leg for them there either,
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: which is what I said. It makes sense because that's
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: why they're playing a night game here. It means they
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: probably don't have a whole lot of travel to do
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: for tomorrow's game. Washington used three relief pitchers last night
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: or whatever. Philadelphia used five. Washington is still the lesser
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: bullpen though they ranked twenty fifth. This is not a
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: good bullpen. Philadelphia has been alright. They're number eleven of
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: the era, right around four. Not totally great. Plus the
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: lack of rest is a little bit of an issue.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: Philadelphia is twenty third in offense, which is not good,
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: although they're capable of better than that. But they're better
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: at home, and they're not at home here. Washington has
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: ranked fourth in offense. They're they're a pretty good offense,
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: but they're gonna have to deal with Christopher Sanchez here,
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: and we know how good he's been one point eight ERA,
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: one point zero nine width for Philadelphia here. Is not
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: quite as good on the road though, three point two
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: to three road ERA, so he's a little bit more
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: vulnerable on the road. But he's been pretty much excellent
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: throughout the entire season. Low hit rate, really low walk rate,
• 30:29
  Speaker 3: high strikeout rate as well, a lot of ground balls,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: a lot a lot to like about that, and his
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: numbers are really good against Washington in seventy four at
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: BET's one eighty nine average, allowed four point fifty three
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: ops seventeen to five strike out walk ratio, so Washington
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: has a large sample against him, they're familiar with him,
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: they still have not been able to hit him. He
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: pitched against them early in eight. Brony did walk four
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: guys in five and a third innings in that one,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: so his command was off in that game, but he's
• 30:58
  Speaker 3: still only allowed one and run and had a lot
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: of strikeouts there, so it wasn't exactly a bad outing
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: from him. And of course, as you can see his
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: walk number has gone way down since then, so I
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: don't really have many concerns with Sanchez. I think he
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: should pitch well here. Kay Cavali pitching for Washington. I
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: think he's better than people think. Four point seventy rail
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: though his whip is ugly. I know, one point four
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: to six not really something I would necessarily want to trust,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: but he is better at home three point seventy three
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: homye Ra He's one of the only Washington pitchers who's
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: actually better at home. Wasn't really good last time out
• 31:34
  Speaker 3: on the road against Tampa Bay, but he's been a
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: little bit better recently. Still some concerns here though, like
• 31:40
  Speaker 3: his hit rate is still kind of too high, too
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: many walks, a lot of that in that one outing
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: against Tampa Bay. Though you look at his overall numbers,
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: he actually does have good strikeouts stuff more strikeouts than
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: any of his pitch that's pretty good. His hit rate
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: is too high, so he has allowed too many hits,
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: but that is not translated into home runs. He does
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: not allow a lot of home run and his walk
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: rate is it's high, but it's not like dangerously high
• 32:05
  Speaker 3: in my opinions, So just those overall hit him walk
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: numbers make his whip bad. But I don't know, man,
• 32:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, I think he's kind of balanced. And again,
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: I don't hate those numbers really when I dig into them,
• 32:16
  Speaker 3: and his numbers against Philly are actually good. In fifty
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: seven at bats two forty six average, six sixty four ohps,
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: twelve to four strikeout walk ratio. He faced them earlier
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: this year in that same game, actually he went up
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: against Sanchez, and he actually pitched a little bit better
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: than Sanchez. He went deeper into the game six innings,
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: allowed one run at Philly, only three strikeouts, two walks.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: But he was pretty good in that start, and that
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: game wound up a six to five final, but it
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: went into extra innings. The starting pitchers only allowed one
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: run each there. So I think a first five under
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: makes sense in this game, man. Both pitchers have good
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers here. I don't really like the bullpens. The
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: money is backing the the totals at eight and a half,
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: sixty seven percent of the tickets on the under, ninety two
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over. But I look first
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: five under, man, I mean, I think it hit in
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: the first game with this same matchup, and it was
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: at Philly, and I think it's a better spot for
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: the under here because Washington is actually less good offensively
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: at home in Philly is definitely less good offensively on
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: the road, So both offenses are in the worst home
• 33:25
  Speaker 3: road splits here. I know Sanchez is in his worst
• 33:28
  Speaker 3: home road split though Cavali is in the better of his.
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: But yeah, I think first five under makes the most
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: sense in that game. I don't know if I'd really
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: want to risk that, but that's the way that I
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: look at that. This next game almost made the cut
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: for me. Texas in Toronto it would be pretty much
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: entirely a matchup play, though Toronto is staying at home
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: after losing to Houston, so it does look like kind
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: of a bounce back spot for Houston here. Texas is
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: having to travel in from Miami, so they do have
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of travel to have to do here
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: with no time off or actually, wait, did they have
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: yesterday off? No, nobody had yesterday off? What am I saying? No?
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: They were in Miami. Yeah, today is the Today's Thursday.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: What am I thinking? Today's the day where a lot
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: of a lot of teams get the day off. So
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: Toronto has a travel advantage here. I'm not gonna talk
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: myself into this play. I don't know. I might. Toronto
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Texas is still the better
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: bullpen though they used three as well, but light usage.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: Their better relievers did not really pitch yesterday. Texas I
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: like their bullpen. They're number eight, but I think they're
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: a little bit better than that. Blue Jays haven't been
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: too bad at thirteenth, but Texas has the better of
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: these two bullpens here. Offensively, neither team has been very impressive.
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: Texas twenty first, Toronto twenty second. So that does make
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: it kind of look like it could be possibly an under.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: Mackenzie Gore is pitching for Texas. I kind of like him.
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: I think he's got good stuff, but he does walk
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: too many guys four point seven ERA, one point three whip.
• 35:00
  Speaker 3: He's way worse on the road though, five point seventy
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: five ROADYRA. It makes sense Texas. A lot of pitchers
• 35:06
  Speaker 3: do way better in Texas, and he is one of them.
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: His splits are extreme, like his Roady Ira is three
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: and a half runs basically worse than it is at home.
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: He was really good in his last down him, but
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: it was against San Diego, and pretty much everyone does
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: well against San Diego, and that was at home. Of course,
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: he did have a lot of strikeouts in the start
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: prior to that against Minnesota, also at home. He's struggled
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: in his last couple of road outings, the which is expected,
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: as you can tell based on his numbers, uh Gore. Overall,
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: he's got a low hit rate, he's got a high
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: strikeout rate, in his walk rate is a bit too high,
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: which is what I already said, we kind of know
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: what you're gonna get out of him, but he's on
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: the road here, so i'd be looking to fade him.
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: And his numbers against Toronto are not good. In forty
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: nine at bats they got three zero six average, nine
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: H three oh ps, eleven of four strike out walk ratio.
• 35:58
  Speaker 3: So none of these numbers have very good. So that
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: has been looking towards Toronto here. Toronto's going with Kevin Gussman,
• 36:05
  Speaker 3: and he was really bad in his last start, really bad.
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: But he's a veteran and he's got good numbers. He's
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: a good pitcher, so I think he's gonna bounce back here.
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: His era went up above four because of that outing,
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: but it should not be above four. He's got a
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: one point one to three whip, which is good four
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: point zero four era. I expect that to come back
• 36:23
  Speaker 3: down a little bit. He's been really good at home
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: three point one home he ra so we have some
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: extreme home road splits in Toronto's favor here. He had
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: pitched really well against the Yankees two starts to go,
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: and then he got absolutely bombed by the White excuse
• 36:38
  Speaker 3: I keep saying the White Sox, the cops, by the cops.
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, that was a ridiculous outing. It was
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: a weird outing. It was an afternoon game. I don't
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: know what happened in that game. I think it was
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: a getaway or no, it wasn't a getaway day. It
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: was a Friday game. I don't know what the hell
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: that was. But Gaussman is obviously nowhere near that bad.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: You look at his overall numbers, he's right at one
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: strikeoup per ending. That's good. Low hit rate. Walk rate
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: is pretty low as well. Not a whole lot to
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: dislike here, and he's going up against a weak Texas offense,
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: which is gonna be a downgrade from all the teams
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: that he's faced recently Atlanta, Baltimore, Yankees, Cubs. Texas is
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: worse offensively than all of those teams, and pretty significantly,
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: so I think I'm gonna talk myself into this. I
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: almost put this on my card against Texas. He's got
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: eighty nine at bats, twenty five to three strikeout walk ratio,
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: really really good command numbers there two two average allowed,
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: six to ten ops. Pretty much dominant numbers here for
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: the most part against Texas. How can we play this game, though,
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: is the question. I think you want to go first
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: five on this with Toronto. I do not like Texas.
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: I do not like the Toronto bullpen against Texas bullpen.
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: The money in this game is backing the over by
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: the way, which I don't know about that. I mean,
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: I think it under makes a little bit more sense
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: than this one. Totals at eight. But then again, I
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: like the favorite here Toronto. They're around minus one fifty
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: on the full game, seventy nine percent of tickets, eighty
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: four percent of the cash on Toronto. They're a little
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: bit public and you're gonna have to pay more for
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: them in the first five because the odds makers know
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: that Toronto's biggest advantage that they have here is the
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: starting pitching. Let me take a look. I do like this,
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: man hold on. Action Network does not like it. I
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: don't think Action Network likes either of my plays today.
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna look at the first Actually, the first five
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: number is actually pretty reasonable. FD has the money line
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: at minus one forty five. Do you want to pay
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: that much juice for it? Do I want to want
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: to go spread? Here? The spread looks pretty good. Actually,
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: it's it's as cheap as minus one oh two at
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: that same book at FD. Let's do it that way.
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: We'll do the spread. I know it means they have
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: to be winning at that point, but whatever, let's do it.
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: So this play is Toronto in the first five minus
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: a half run minus one oh two. You can get
• 39:04
  Speaker 3: it anywhere between minus one oh two and minus one tens.
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: You're basically just making a spread. I mean it is
• 39:09
  Speaker 3: literally a spread bet out of this. So that'll be
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: the first play there. We'll ride Kevin Gaussman to bounce
• 39:15
  Speaker 3: back here, and we have really good home road splits
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: and good matchup numbers for that. All right, that was
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: not my initial baseball play that I was gonna make.
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: I still have one, Thomas, what's up, man? I don't
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: really I haven't really been watching that much of the
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: World Cup. I've been watching Norway mostly because I like
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: Holland however your pronounce his name, I'm a fan, So
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: I've been watching Norway mostly. I watched a little bit
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: of Scotland yesterday because I appreciate the Scotts. But now
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: they're gonna have to hang on to a third to
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: being one of the top eight third place finishers. Now
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: they might I think it's more likely than not that
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: they still will, but I don't know. But I haven't
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: been following the US team. I mean, I don't know, man,
• 39:59
  Speaker 3: the US team, A lot of those guys are not
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: even American. I think they're just they're overhyped. I'm not
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: totally into it, Like, yeah, you know usay, like rooting
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: for this US team means you're a patriot, Like I'm
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: not into that. I mean, I'm an American. I like America.
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: I hate what's being done to this country. But you
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: know that doesn't translate for me until like we got
• 40:19
  Speaker 3: to root for this this US team that's overhyped, and
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: you know, the like the NPC is basically all root
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: for them because it's patriotic, you know what I mean.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: So something just doesn't sit right in my mind with that,
• 40:33
  Speaker 3: you know what I mean. It just seems like it's
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: just kind of blind allegiance, Like I don't like that.
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, I don't hate them either.
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: But you know, by the way, the US, we already
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: know they're gonna be playing Bosnia in the first round
• 40:48
  Speaker 3: of the knockout stage, so the US very likely to
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: advance there. That's a really good matchup for the US.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Bosnia not a very good team. So that's who I
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: think that's already decided. That's who the US is playing,
• 41:00
  Speaker 3: because they've already clinched their group which I'm gonna talk
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: about later in the show here, and Bosnia has already
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: finished their group matches. So got something on my screen
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: here that I gotta get rid of. There we go.
• 41:13
  Speaker 3: I don't know what that was, dust Maybe all right,
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: Cubs and Mets, this is gonna be my other play,
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: So you get two in a row. People are not
• 41:26
  Speaker 3: gonna like this one because guess what we're doing here today. Man,
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: We're gonna completely make We're gonna make two plays that
• 41:33
  Speaker 3: are completely reliant on two pitchers that allowed seven plus
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: runs and didn't make it past like the third inning
• 41:41
  Speaker 3: in their last start. That's what we're doing here. We're
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: gonna play the Mets in the first five here. What's there?
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: It is at minus one oh five on the money line.
• 41:49
  Speaker 3: It's a decent money line price here. Nobody is gonna
• 41:52
  Speaker 3: want this. The Mets lost both games of the doubleheader yesterday.
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Nolan McClain did pitch in the first game. He was
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: not good. I thought he was gonna be a lot
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: better than that in the first game. But I told
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: you guys, you know, I didn't love the Mets that
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: much once the Cubs announced they were gonna go with Asad,
• 42:08
  Speaker 3: who's been pretty good. And then of course I completely
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: forgot im Naga was supposed to start during all those
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: rainout games the Cubs had and they kept pushing him back,
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: So obviously Imanaga is gonna pitch one of those games yesterday,
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: and he did. He pitched the night game and I
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: think he was good enough, and the Cubs won that
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: game too, So I forgot im Naga was next in
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: line to pitch. So I'm an idiot. I'm sorry if
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: I I don't know how. I didn't remember that, Like,
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know. I just got thrown off by all
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: the rainouts the Cubs have had. But yeah, so this game,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: Imanaga is not gonna be pitching. I think we get
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: a pitching advantage in this game with the Mets, obviously,
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: which is why I'm doing this now. As far as
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: the bullpens, the bullpen's got absolutely ran out yesterday because
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: both these teams played two games yesterday, so it was
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: a doubleheader. So you know, these bullpens are in bad
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: shape after that. The Mets use seven relief pitchers across
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: the two games. The Cubs used I think eight or
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: maybe no, that's seven, I guess. I don't know, but
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: most of the relief pitchers had to come into the
• 43:08
  Speaker 3: games yesterday. These are still good bullpens, but I would
• 43:12
  Speaker 3: not want to really rely on them in this setup.
• 43:14
  Speaker 3: Just too much bullpen usage for me. Although the Mets
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: are ranked third and bullpen either ERA not quite that
• 43:21
  Speaker 3: good but still pretty good. Cobs a little bit worse
• 43:23
  Speaker 3: a tenth but still pretty good bullpen. Mets slight bullpen edge,
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: So I know you could go with the Mets full
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: game here and go with their bullpen, but I just
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: don't I don't know what you're gonna get with these bullpens.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: Was so much unrest there, so I just figured I
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: would focus on what we know, which is the starting
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: pitching here. The hitting by the way, yeah, the Cubs
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: have a hitting edge. I know we're gonna fade that here.
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: Cubs are fifth and hitting They're way better than the
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: Mets or twenty ninth. I know. So obviously the public
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: is not gonna like this. It's ugly, but part of this,
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: this is actually a situational play. The Cubs are on
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: the verge of sweeping the Mets. They've dominated the series.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: They've scored twenty nine runs in the first three games here,
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: So why would you ever want to fade the Cubs
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: here outscoring the Mets twenty nine to whatever that is? Fourteen?
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: Nobody's gonna want the Mets here. The Cubs have dominated.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: But that's why I like the Mets here. The Cubs
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: might just pack this in early, you know what I mean,
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: because they've already won the series. Are they really gonna
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: care about finishing a four games sweep pier when their
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: next opponent is the Milwaukee Brewers, which is a huge
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: series because the Cubs are gonna need to win some
• 44:35
  Speaker 3: games in that series to try to close the gap
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: against the Brewers, who are way up in first place
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: right now in the NL Central. That's gonna be a
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: huge series for the Cobs. So I think this is
• 44:44
  Speaker 3: a look ahead. They've already won the series. Huge series
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: coming up next, Mets should have the motivational edge here.
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: Mets are not going to overlook the Cubs here trying
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: to avoid getting swept in a four game home series here,
• 44:57
  Speaker 3: and we're gonna fade Matthew Boyd, who is coming back
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: from injury, which should help the Cub's rotation mostly. And
• 45:04
  Speaker 3: I know he's better than his ra would make it look.
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: I know a six era is really bad, but one
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: point two nine whip is not that bad. But I
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: still don't like him in the spot. And I know
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: I always talk about how I usually like veteran pitchers
• 45:16
  Speaker 3: coming back from injury because a lot of times the
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: team rallies around them will be pumped up. They like
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: this guy. This guy is used to, you know, the
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: ins and outs of pitching, and he'll be pumped to
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: get back out there. I agree with all that. It's
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: a decent spot for Boyd here as far as that
• 45:31
  Speaker 3: is concerned, but there are a lot of things to
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: not like here. He's been bad on the road eleven
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: point twenty five ROADYRA And you might say, well, that's
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: a small sample size. Yeah, I know, so you can
• 45:41
  Speaker 3: look at last year. But last year his home road
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: splits were also not really that good on the road
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: like he was. He had a three point nine Roady
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: ray last year, which was a run and a half
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: higher than it was at home, so he was more
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: fadable on the road last year as well. This year,
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: he hasn't made that many starts. He went down due
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: to injury and early men was pitching fairly well though
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: if you look at his command numbers, they're actually really
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: good thirty one to six strike out walk race in
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: twenty four innings, but he was too hittable twenty five
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: hits allowed. So but his command numbers are good. So generally, yes,
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: I do think he's a good pitcher, but I just
• 46:15
  Speaker 3: don't like the spot for the Cubs here, and I
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: don't like this matchup for Boyd, and I don't like
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: the home road splits for him, either believe it or not.
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: The Mets have good numbers against him in seventy five
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: at bats. They have some guys that have a lot
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: of experience. Lind d'Or has a lot of experience against
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: him and does a lot of damage. So yeah, you
• 46:32
  Speaker 3: could argue that if he can pitch around him, he
• 46:34
  Speaker 3: might do well here. But these overall numbers are bad.
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: Three zero seven average oneenty twenty seven ops, twelve to
• 46:40
  Speaker 3: eight strike out walk ratio. I'm not liking that, so
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: I'm willing to fade him here and go with Freddy
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: peralt On. I know, why would we want to do that?
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: And Paralta's numbers look disgusting here. Four point eight three
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: ERA one point three to nine whip is pretty bad too.
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: I know, I get all that he's not this bad though,
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: like you look at what he's done throughout his career.
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: He's a pretty solid pitcher. These numbers are gonna come
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: down a little bit. He's not this bad, and if
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: you look at his splits, he is better at home,
• 47:11
  Speaker 3: although I know his ERA four point five still not
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: that great, but we still get the better of the
• 47:15
  Speaker 3: home road split here. His last start was at Philadelphia.
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: He got absolutely bombed in that start and we lost
• 47:21
  Speaker 3: an under in that game on the show. I don't
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: know what was up with Parolta in that game, man,
• 47:26
  Speaker 3: but I think that's an outlier. He was good against
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: Atlanta on the prior start. I know he gave up
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: six runs to Saint Louis before that, but he got
• 47:33
  Speaker 3: unlucky in that start. It was only on six hits
• 47:36
  Speaker 3: in six innings, so I'm not really buying that. He
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: was good against Seattle to start before that. He's still
• 47:41
  Speaker 3: got a fifteen to six strikeout walk ratio this month.
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: While that's not great, it's not that bad, and the
• 47:47
  Speaker 3: hit number is only high because of that last outing
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: against Philly, which I think that's an outlier. I think
• 47:53
  Speaker 3: you get a solid pitcher like paral Doo's had a
• 47:56
  Speaker 3: solid career. He should bounce back after that bad of
• 47:59
  Speaker 3: a star. His overall numbers aren't really that bad. His
• 48:03
  Speaker 3: hit rate is a little bit less than one per inning.
• 48:05
  Speaker 3: It should be a little bit lower, but that's not
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: that bad. His walk rate is kind of high. That's
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: his one main issue. That's been the case throughout his career,
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: though that his walks are usually jo high. His strikeout
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: rate is okay. I think he's a lot better than
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: what he looked like in his last start, at least,
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: I'll tell you that. And he has been good against
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: the Cobs, even though they have a lot of experience
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: against him because he was on the Brewers, he was
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: in their division for a long time. They have two
• 48:29
  Speaker 3: hundred and nineteen at bats against them. But the good
• 48:32
  Speaker 3: thing about this is they still have not had success
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: against him and all those at bats seventy five strikeouts,
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: twenty eight walks. I know the walk number is still
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: a little bit too high there, but a one sixty
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: batting average and five ninety one ops that's really good
• 48:47
  Speaker 3: for that amount of at bats. You usually do not
• 48:49
  Speaker 3: see batting numbers that are that low in a sample
• 48:52
  Speaker 3: size that huge for one pitcher against an opposing lineup.
• 48:56
  Speaker 3: So Peralta has done well in his career against these guys.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: It I like the situation for it. The money looked
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: like it was agreeing with me earlier. Hopefully it still is.
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: It is sixty three percent of tickets are on the Cobs.
• 49:08
  Speaker 3: The money's all gonna come in on the Cobs because
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: they're the better record, man. But the oddsmakers have thrown
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: up a Pickham price here. So it's like they're daring
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: you to play the Cobs here. They know the public
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: is gonna play the Cobs here, the Mets sixty one
• 49:22
  Speaker 3: percent of the money on them. We'll go with the Mets,
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: but we'll make it first five to take out that
• 49:27
  Speaker 3: bullpen variability that might happen here. If the bullpens were rested,
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: I probably would make this a full game play, and
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: you are gonna get that motivation probably throughout the whole game,
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: because the Mets are going to try to win the
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: full game. But I prefer to just focus on the
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: starting pitching there. So Mets first five, Gerald, what's up?
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: Thanks for hanging out. LaMelo ball got traded? I didn't
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: even see that was that part of the draft stuff?
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: Like what happened there? Do they trade up to get
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: a draft pick or something? What's going on? Man? Garrett
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: is our resident Charlotte fan there, dude, I have a
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: ball jersey. Man, that's my Charlotte Hornets jerseys is like
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: that like Teal, Alternate, whatever the hell, City Connect Jersey,
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: whatever the hell it is. I forget what the hell
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: it's called. Whatever it is. Anyway, let's get through this
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: baseball slate the I'm gonna take a break and then
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: talk about the other stuff. Yankees in the Red Sox
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: Do I even want to talk about this MLB network?
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox are in a bad spot, as I
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: already mentioned, the returning from Seattle and Colorado. The Red
• 50:29
  Speaker 3: Sox had a six to three lead yesterday against Colorado
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: and again they couldn't hold it. The Red Sox were
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: winning all three of these games against Colorado in the
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: late innings of these games and they lost two out
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: of three. And the Red Sox had a huge bullpen
• 50:42
  Speaker 3: advantage over Colorado in that series. What the fuck? I
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: have no idea what's going on right now. But now
• 50:49
  Speaker 3: they're in a bad spot because they're returning home. So
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: the Yankees get a good scheduling spot here even though
• 50:54
  Speaker 3: they're traveling. They're traveling from Detroit, Red Sox having to
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: cross more time zones. They're having to come back home
• 51:00
  Speaker 3: for a long not really a long road trip, but
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: a week long road trip. It's a negative for the
• 51:05
  Speaker 3: Red Sox. You can get distracted a little though. Obviously
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: they're playing the Yankees, so they should still get up
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: for this at least, so that should at least alleviate
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: that a little bit. The Red Sox is still gonna
• 51:15
  Speaker 3: lose this game because they have to go up against Schlitler,
• 51:18
  Speaker 3: so there's not really much the Red Sox could do here.
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: The Red Sox offense also still blows. Oh great, the
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: bullpend stuff. We can't see anything right now, thanks rood
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: o wire. Oh oh now it might be back. Oh
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: but it's still not like, oh, there we go. The
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: Red Sox used three relief pitchers yesterday. Yankees that think
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: used about the same. I don't know. This website is
• 51:39
  Speaker 3: not fucking loading right now, right when I'm almost through
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: the baseball slate. Yeah, isn't that just great? I hope
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: it's just this website and not my internet overall. They
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: use three relief pictures as well. You got nas Reed.
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: He's pretty good though. That was from Minnesota, right, And
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: second round picks. I mean, you can make good picks
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: in the second round. I saw what the board looked like,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: and I was like, oh, there's still some good college
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: players going off the board in the second round there,
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: So I don't know. Nasried is a pretty good player though,
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: all right, let me see. Yes, Yankees also used three
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: eleade pitchers. These bullpens have both been good. The Red
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: Sox have been slightly better, although not recently, but maybe
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: that was the cores field effect. Red Sox are ranked fifth.
• 52:29
  Speaker 3: They have like the second best Bullpenny Ray I think
• 52:32
  Speaker 3: right now, I think that's right, So they're good. Yankees
• 52:35
  Speaker 3: are almost as good. Red Sox have the third best
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: Ballpenny Ra my mistake, behind Atlanta and San Diego. Yankees
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: are also almost there. They're number seven in bullpen, also
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: a good bullpen. Yankees have a huge offensive edge Number two,
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: Red Sox twenty fifth. They still have not turned it around.
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Tied with the Mariners, Red Sox are probably not likely
• 52:56
  Speaker 3: to do much against Schlittler, who has a point seven
• 52:58
  Speaker 3: to one e Ray point eight nine whip. He's been
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: even better on the road one point one to two
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: Roady Ira. He's been dominating pretty much the entire season,
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: but he had thirteen strikeouts in a six inning shutout
• 53:11
  Speaker 3: of the Reds last time out. He faced the Red
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: Sox once earlier this month, and he didn't go that
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: deep into the game, but he still allowed one and
• 53:22
  Speaker 3: run only in five and two thirds innings. He was
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: still good in that out and He dominated the Red
• 53:26
  Speaker 3: Sox in another outing in Fenway earlier this year. That
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: most recent one was in New York at Fenway, went
• 53:33
  Speaker 3: eight innings and allowed one and run to them in
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: early in early in the season in April. Numbers against
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox obviously are good. One fifty nine average allowed,
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: four to thirty nine ohps' sixty three at bats, so
• 53:46
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox have seen a bunch of them by now,
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: and they still have not done anything against him. Eighteen
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: to two strike out walk ratio. Nothing to like there
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: for the Red Sox. The Red Sox are gonna counter
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: with Connolly early. He's an alright pitcher, but he's not
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: as good as Schlitzler. He's got a three point six
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: four ERA one point two seven whip, which is, you know,
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: a little bit high for my legging. He hasn't been
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: as good at home either, four point eight two home
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: he Ira, so he kind of struggles in Femway Park.
• 54:15
  Speaker 3: It is a more hitter friendly ballpark, as I keep mentioning,
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: but a lot of it is kind of skewed by
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: a really bad outing against Texas here. So he's not
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: quite that bad at home. He's been decent for the
• 54:26
  Speaker 3: most part. But he's been you know, a little bit
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: questionable with the walks and hits recently, although again a
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: lot of it is that one really bad start against
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: Texas skewing his recent numbers. He's got a pretty low
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: hit rate overall. His walk rate is not great but okay,
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: and his strikeout rate is okay as well. He faced
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: the Yankees once this year and he was mediocre. He
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: went five and a third at home against him, give
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: up three or in runs, had three walks, which was
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: not good. So he was kind of putting himself in
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: bad positions there and he was able to get himself
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: out of some jams. It looks like not great really,
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: four strikeouts there, But his numbers overall against the Yankees
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: are actually not that bad. They have a two thirty
• 55:06
  Speaker 3: one average of five point fifty five ops off him
• 55:09
  Speaker 3: in twenty six at bats, eight to two strikeout walk ratio,
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: so he does actually do generally well against them. I
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: think the Yankees are gonna win this game. The spot
• 55:19
  Speaker 3: is better for them. They have the better starting pitcher here.
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: The bullpens are pretty close seventy six percent of tickets,
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: ninety one percent of the cash on the Yankees. They're
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: about minus one sixty here. I don't know about laying
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: that price, though I like the under better. The total
• 55:35
  Speaker 3: you might be able to get under eight here at
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: minus one twenty seven and a half is about the same,
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: thoughle bit it'll be like a reduced juice under the
• 55:43
  Speaker 3: seven and a half here, So maybe you can find
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: an eight at a better price. The Lion book with
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: the m has under eight at minus one eighteen. I
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: have a tendency to go with something like that more
• 55:53
  Speaker 3: so than going with the under seven and a half
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: at plus money, even though it's not as key of
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: a number there. But for me, I don't I don't
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: know why. It's just intuition. I just do it that way.
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: But I do like the under more than anything else
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: in that game. Plus it's it's still a big rivalry series.
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: A lot of times you'll get focus pitching and you know,
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: good deepfense behind the pitching. Whatever. We do have two
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: good bullpens here, two starters that both look like they
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: match up ball right at least or really good in
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: Schlitzler's case. Sixty four percent of tickets on the over,
• 56:23
  Speaker 3: fifty two percent of the cash on the under. Of course,
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox can't hit, so if you want to
• 56:28
  Speaker 3: do something like Red Sox team total under, that makes
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: sense as well. But you're gonna need the Red Sox
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: to probably be really limited there, Like you're gonna need
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox to probably score at most three in
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: the game, but that is certainly possible. And the Red
• 56:41
  Speaker 3: Sox offense is terrible at home this year, and I
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: have no idea why, because usually they hit a lot
• 56:46
  Speaker 3: better at home. It's a hitter friendly ballpark. But those
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: are options for that game. I still think if I
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: was gonna do it, I would go full game under,
• 56:54
  Speaker 3: though Arizona Saint Louis to finish off the baseball board here.
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: These teams are finishing a four game series. Saint Louis
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: won the first game and lost the last two, so
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: maybe they have a little bit of extra motivation here.
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: Arizona plays Tampa Bay next. I don't know if they're
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: going to really look ahead to that. Saint Louis plays Miami.
• 57:12
  Speaker 3: Not really a look ahead for either team here. Both
• 57:15
  Speaker 3: teams may show up here, but I like the pitching
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: matchup better for Saint Louis in this one, and they
• 57:20
  Speaker 3: might have a little bit extra motivation because they don't
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: want to lose a series at home. Three to one.
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: ESPN Unlimited has this game. I don't love either bullpen here.
• 57:29
  Speaker 3: Saint Louis used two guys out of the bullpen yesterday,
• 57:32
  Speaker 3: Arizona use four. I don't love this Arizona bullpen, Dude,
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: I've been talking about it. They're number nine right now,
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: but this era getting close to the mid four is
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: not great, so I don't think they're that good of
• 57:45
  Speaker 3: a bullpen. I think they're pretty mediocre. Saint Louis is
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: ranked twenty first, although the ERA isn't that much worse
• 57:51
  Speaker 3: than Arizona, so I think they're kind of a middle
• 57:53
  Speaker 3: of the pack bullpen as well. Hitting wise, Saint Louis
• 57:57
  Speaker 3: has been better. They're number fourteen. Arizona's been really struggling
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: number twenty seven, although they've gotten a little bit going
• 58:04
  Speaker 3: in this series, but still not a lot. This is
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: a more pitcher friendly park here too, and Zach Gallon
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Arizona here. I do not like that
• 58:13
  Speaker 3: for them. He's not been good at all. Six point
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: one ERA one point six y three whip. He's been
• 58:19
  Speaker 3: worse on the road six point nine to eight road
• 58:22
  Speaker 3: e RA, so he looks like a complete fade here
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: pretty much. He's he was awful in his last start
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: against Minnesota at home, where he's actually usually a little
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: bit better. He's been pretty much awful all month. A
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: low strike out rate, high walk rate, extremely high hit rate.
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: He's almost allowing two hits per inning this month. I
• 58:42
  Speaker 3: don't know what he's even doing. He's a lot a
• 58:44
  Speaker 3: ton of hits on the season. His walk rate is
• 58:46
  Speaker 3: actually not that bad on the season. His strike cut
• 58:49
  Speaker 3: rate is also low, though, but he's been extremely hittable,
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: just putting pitches over the plate. Something really wrong with him.
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: But he's in a picture friendly ballpark here in St.
• 59:00
  Speaker 3: Lewis specifically, might be an okay matchup for him. They
• 59:03
  Speaker 3: only have five hitters who have faced him nineteen at bats,
• 59:06
  Speaker 3: one fifty eight average, six twenty ops, five to four
• 59:09
  Speaker 3: strike up walk ratio, so he might do okay here.
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: This is at least a more beneficial matchup for him,
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: but there's still no way I could trust him. He's
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: going against Michael McGreevy, who's been the much more stable
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: pitcher here. Way better numbers to three point three five
• 59:26
  Speaker 3: yr one point one five whip. He gave up five
• 59:29
  Speaker 3: runs last time out at Kansas City. Wasn't really great
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: in that start, but he was pitching well before that.
• 59:35
  Speaker 3: He's a lot more than three or in runs only
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: three times this season. He's a lot of low hit rate,
• 59:39
  Speaker 3: a pretty low walk rate. He doesn't strike guys out though,
• 59:43
  Speaker 3: so he does rely on getting guys to hit into
• 59:45
  Speaker 3: soft contact, which I know I tend to not like that,
• 59:49
  Speaker 3: but he's been pretty effective in doing that and he's
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: been consistently doing that. And again, he doesn't put too
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: many guys on base, so he's not really putting himself
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: in trouble, so that's good. And Arizona's actually never faced before,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: so he has a little bit of an extra advantage there.
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 3: As pitchers have a little bit of an extra edge
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 3: when they're facing an offense that hasn't seen them before.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna lean to Saint Louis in this one.
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 3: Maybe take the bullpen's out of the equation though, because
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: I don't really like either bullpen here sixty six percent
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: of tickets eighty four percent of the cash on Saint Louis,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: I agree with that. I think I might go first five.
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know what type of price you'll get on that, though,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: probably a little bit higher than what it is on
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: the full game there at minus one thirty something for
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: the full game. I don't think it'll be that much higher, though,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: So a money line on them in the first five
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 3: makes some sense, might be a little bit juicy. You
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: could go with the run line as well, but they'll
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: need to be winning after the verse five if you
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 3: do it that way, and money is coming in on
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: the over there, So at least playing that run line there,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 3: it's a little bit better because it's a higher total
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: here total at nine with money coming in on the over,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 3: so better chance for a favor to cover some sort
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: of run line when there's a higher total expected. All right,
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be right back, and then I'm gonna move
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: over to w n B A, which you know, I
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 3: don't have a ton to say about the w NBA
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 3: except I'm pissed because I was right about the side
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 3: in three of the four games last night, and the
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: only one I gave out was the wrong was the
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: was the one I was wrong about, even though again
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 3: I really really liked the spot there, and I you know,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: I go with what works like, this is what I
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: do here, So I'm gonna be right back though, as
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: I spill my water here. Yes, that's awesome, all right,
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: Wet wet a hoodie contest now w n B A here, Yeah,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 3: I mean we have three games of the w n
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: B A l A at Toronto is the first game.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: First thing I noticed here is Toronto's returning home from
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: a road trip. So you know, I like to fade
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: teams returning home from the road. They've been on the
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: road for more than a week, so that's a long time.
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: It can be a distraction. You got to get back
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: to home life. Whatever. They didn't They didn't go that
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: far geographically Indiana, Connecticut, Atlanta, but still they're returning home
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: from that. That game against Atlanta wasn't that close, by
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 3: the way. I know, they lost by seven. I'd probably
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 3: I'd be more inclined to fade Toronto if they had
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 3: a really close call against Atlanta, because that would have
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 3: been a big deal for them. But that game was
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 3: not close. But still it doesn't look like a great
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: spot for them. Problem is La is coming up that
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 3: big win over New York. That was a win. I
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: gave it on the show, it was a horrible spot
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 3: for New York, so LA could be in a letdown
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 3: spot after that. And they're traveling here to start a
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 3: road trip here, although a lot of times you are
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: focused start a road trip. But they do have Indiana next.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: That's probably a bigger game because it's Indiana, it's Caitlin Clark,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: so they're kind of in a sandwich spot here. I
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: don't really love any of that, so this will be
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: a fad or too. This will be a no play
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 3: for me obviously LA. By the way, these two teams
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 3: played each other twice already, both in LA and LA
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 3: won the first game by four, but lost the second
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 3: game by ten. So it is possible that LA doesn't
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: overlook Toronto because last time they played them they lost
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 3: as a favorite at home to them. Also, we do
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: have to kind of watch the Plumb injury here because
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 3: I think she's still out for LA. She's been out
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 3: for a while now. Yeah, she's gonna be out it
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: looks like for another month. And they're without Brink right
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: now too, So this LA team is a little bit
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 3: injured right now. Somebody keep in mind Toronto without Psykes,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: who I think is actually one of their better players too,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I mean, I'm gonna slightly lean towards LA here,
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 3: but I don't really love it. The money is playing
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: them fifty three percent of the tickets, sixty five percent
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: of the money on them. They're a slight underdog, about
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: a plus one and a half. So you are, I think,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: getting the better team as an underdog there if you
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: do play LA there. Even though the records are really close,
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 3: I think LA is still the better team, better than
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 3: an expansion team. But then again, they also have not
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: played in Toronto yet, so that could throw them off
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: a little bit, you know, having to go through customs
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: and whatever, because they've only played Toronto at home so far.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: All right, Dallas and Vegas, this is the probably the
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 3: best matchup on the WNBA board here because these are
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: two pretty good teams here. Vegas is one of the
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: best teams. Vegas is staying at home off of that
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: loss to the Liberty there. You know, that was a
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 3: game where I thought the Liberty would come out and
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: play pretty well, and that was the spot made more
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: sense for the Liberty there. It could be a bounce
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 3: back for Vegas after that, though. That was a tough game.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 3: But they did lose by double digits, and they're not
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: going to overlook Dallas because guess what, the last time
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 3: they played Dallas, they got absolutely embarrassed by thirty points
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 3: in Dallas, and they also lost in Dallas by eight
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: the other time they played them. So you gotta think
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: Vegas is going to want to get them now that
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: they get them at home, and Vegas is going to
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 3: be a favorite here in this game because they are
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 3: still the better team, but having lost by thirty points
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 3: the last time, you know they're gonna make adjustments after that.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 3: There had to be some outlier here, and there was.
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, Dallas went to the line twelve more times
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: in the game. Dallas hit five more threes. Vegas couldn't
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: hit anything in the game. They were not shooting well.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 3: In the game. Dallas shot almost fifty percent, Vegas was
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: only twenty four percent from three, minus fifteen from three
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: point range. Dallas did win the rebound battle by double digits, though,
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 3: so it wasn't all like outlier stuff, But for the
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 3: most part it wasn't. You know, a thirty point win
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 3: like that is obviously gonna have some outliers in it.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: So I think Vegas is going to make some adjustments here.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: They have They definitely have room to progress here. Dallas
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 3: has some regression points there. Not gonna play it, but
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 3: I would lay the points with Vegas here. The money's
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 3: not agreeing with me on that fifty nine percent of
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 3: tickets fifty two percent of the cash on Vegas. They're
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 3: about five and a half there, But I would lay
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 3: the points in that one if I was gonna play it.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 3: And then New York at Seattle, this is a mismatch.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: I mean, the Liberty are one of the best teams
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 3: in the league. Seattle is one of the worst. Seattle's
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: coming off a tough game against Dallas, Seattle almost pulled
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: off an upset. Excuse me at home against Dallas. Seattle
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: was almost a ten point underdog in that game, I'm
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: pretty sure, and they almost pulled off the upset. So
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: you got to question what do they have left in
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: the tank after that, Like they should get up for
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 3: a game against New York. But after a huge performance
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: like that, can they really do that for another entire game?
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 3: I don't know. But New York is also gonna be
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: in a letdown spot because they just had that huge
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: win over Vegas. Which is the preview of the Cup Final,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: which is gonna be on the thirtieth, So that was
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: a huge game for them, and the Liberty also have
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 3: to play Golden State and then Minnesota after this, and
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 3: Dallas and then Minnesota against This is a pretty clear
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: sandwich spot that the Liberty are in here, so it's
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 3: not a good spot for them Seattle. I know Seattle
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: is coming off that performance, so they almost pulled off
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: the upset of Dallas, but I think I prefer Seattle
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: in this game. You're getting a ton of points at home,
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: even though they absolutely suck. I know the Liberty are
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: laying eleven and a half though, but again, Lang double
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: digits with a team and a sandwich spot like that,
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 3: I would not want to do that at all. Obviously,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: sixty three percent of tickets on New York eighty nine
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 3: percent of the cash on Seattle, so the money's agreeing
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: with Seattle. I'm agreeing with that. I don't know whether
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: or not I would say that's the best of these
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: three plays, Like, I kind of have some issues with
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: all of them, but that's the way that I lean
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: in there. All right, World Cup, we have six more
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 3: games here in the World Cup. We're doing six games
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 3: every day as we are in the third round here,
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: every one or the third matchup of the group stage here.
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: Now we have to look at the standings here to
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: see where do these teams stand, where is the motivation?
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: Here we have Curosound Ivory Coast is the first game up.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: This is a huge mismatch man curosal Like I said,
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: I think they might be the worst team in this
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: entire event, although they actually have a point. They actually
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: are coming out of a draw against Ecuador, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: which is very unexpected. They're a huge underdog there. But
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: of course that can be Curosau is in a letdown
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: spot here because you know I talk about when teams
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: are coming off an unexpectedly good performance like that, they
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: could definitely be in a letdown after that. Ivory Coasts
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 3: could be in a letdown too though, because if you
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: saw what they did. They played a huge game against
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: Germany in their first match, and if you saw what
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: happened in that game, that was a one to one
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: tie or draw until Germany scored with like almost no
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: time left in stoppage time. Germany scored I think with
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: like it was like six minutes until like a nine
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: minute stoppage time Germany scored to win the game. That
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: is brutal, and I think Ivory Coast I think was
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: winning that game one and nothing too at one point.
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: So that was a brutal way for the Ivory Coast
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 3: to lose that game. Yeah, they were just absolutely brutal
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: way for them to lose that game. Although if you
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: dig into it, Ivory Coast actually did play somewhat well
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: here expected goals are actually pretty close here and possession
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: was not dominated by Germany, although Germany did have better
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: shots or more shots and better chances, so their offense,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 3: the way they set up their offense was better. But yeah,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 3: I don't want to play either of these teams, man.
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 3: I mean, Ivory Coast is minus five to seventy five
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: on the three way, so they should win. All these
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 3: games are on Fox Sports one, Fox Won and Fox
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 3: for What That's where, and Universo and Telemundo. This game
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 3: is in Pennsylvania, in Philly. I believe Ivory Coast just
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 3: played in Toronto, I want to say, and Curisau was
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: in Kansas City, so Curisau is a bit more of
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 3: a weird travel spot here. But I don't have a
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: whole lot else to say about this. I think both
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 3: teams are kind of in bad spots here. But well,
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: if we actually I take that back, if we look
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: at the standings, Ivory Coast, they can't catch Germany, So
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: Ivory Coast is going is playing for the second place
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: spot here, but they could lose that, So they do
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: have to do something here to make sure they don't
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: fall into You don't want to fall into third place
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: and have to rely on being one of the top
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 3: eight third place teams to get into the knockout rounding.
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 3: Because Germany's already clinched this group because they beat Ivory Coast,
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: so they have the head to head already and the
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: three points ahead of them, so Germany already won. Plus
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: they're gonna have the goal differential tiebreaker to unless something
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: insane happens. You know that's not gonna happen either, So
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 3: Ivory Coast does need this cures ow is still alive.
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 3: Like if they were somehow able to win this, they
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: would actually probably they'd be able to advance, which is
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 3: insane to think about. We'll see though, you know, I mean,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: they have to advance to the third place team though,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 3: because I think, well, it depends, it depends what Ecuador
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 3: is gonna do. Actually, yeah, they might be able to
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 3: do because Ecuador has to play Germany, so they're probably
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 3: not gonna win that. So yeah, inter very very interesting. Actually,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: Ecuador Germany is the other game that I was talking
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: about in this group, which is GROUPY Garrett, you're playing
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: the Mets, all right, well we better get the win
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: on that man Ecuador in Germany. This is interesting because,
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: like I said, Germany doesn't really have anything played for
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: here because they already clinched their group. They're already moving
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: on and they're already guaranteed the number one spot out
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 3: of their groups. They don't have anything to play for.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 3: Ecuador really does. Ecuador only has one point right now,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 3: and if they were somehow to manage a win here,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 3: that would be massive, Like did be able to advance
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 3: if they did that. Ecuador is coming up. That really
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 3: ugly draw with curis out almost inexcusable. They should have
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: gotten three points out of that if you look what
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: happened in that one. I don't think they played that well,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 3: but I do think they played well enough to win,
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: and they didn't do it. Actually, yeah, if you look
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 3: at Ecuador dominated this game, expected goals basically three to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: almost zero here seventy five percent of possession. Equador actually
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: had fifteen shots on goal, So I take that back Ecuador.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: It's almost impossible that they didn't score a goal in
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: this game. Like, I have no idea how they lost
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: this game, Absolutely no idea, Absolutely ridiculous. It makes no sense.
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: You're telling me curious, how's goalie had fifteen saves? Is
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: that what happened here? Out of fifteen? Like, that's basically impossible.
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: It's not even possible because you know, in soccer the
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: nets are huge, it's not hockey like, basically half of
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: the shots on goal are gonna result in goals pretty much,
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: or maybe more than that. So I don't know how
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: that's possible. Now, Germany is favored here at minus one
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: seventy five, and normally I think they be favored by
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: more than that, but the oddsmakers have lowered the number
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 3: because Germany has already clinched. Now, Germany played in Kansas City,
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: so it is kind of a worse travel spot for them. Wait,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: am I right about that? No? Germany played in Toronto, Yeah,
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 3: they played in Toronto. Ecuador played in Kansas City. Yeah,
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 3: I think that's right. Yeah, and they're both going to
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 3: MetLife here in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the Jets and
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 3: Giants Stadium. I lean to Ecuador here. Ecuador is the
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 3: team and has the motivation. They're a big underdog here.
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: Fading Germany makes sense also because Germany kind of had
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: a bullshit win against Ivory Coast there, so they really
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 3: weren't that good in that match. Ecuador was way better
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: in their imagine that it looked like, and it was
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 3: an embarrassing draw for them, you know what. I kind
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 3: of like the idea of playing Ecuador here. Should we
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: actually do it? I mean, what's the hold on? I
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 3: gotta see what the what the odds are on this?
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 3: But we can get on like a spread on Ecuador here.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 3: Let me see if we can get like a reasonable
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: price on like the plus one and a half. That
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: might be the way to look here, because you could go,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: you know, the win or draw. But I don't like
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: that quite as much. Let me look at the spread here. Yeah,
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: it's it's it's not great. Plus plus one and a
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: half is minus one eighty. I don't love that plus
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: a half goals plus one thirty What does the wind
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 3: draw look like? You know, I was just looking at
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 3: the and it's like, there isn't really a market where
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 3: I really love the number here. And this was not
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 3: the game that I was gonna give out. Al I'm
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 3: still giving out a play and it's not on this game.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 3: But let me see here. I'm just I'm gonna look
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 3: at DK and just see what they have for all
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 3: these different markets here real quick. Yeah, I mean, basically,
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 3: the numbers are even worse at DK than they were
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 3: overall that I just gave you. But Ecuador winner draws
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 3: plus one thirty five here at DK. It might be
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 3: better at some of the other books. I don't know.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: Let me look at FD real quick here. I know
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 3: this is gonna take a little while longer here, but
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: this show is not gonna be too long today. This
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 3: is already the second World Cup game. Let me look
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 3: at the double chance here if I can find it
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 3: on FD, yes I can. It's the same plus one
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 3: thirty five. And I think their spread prices are pretty
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: much in line with what with what you get at
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: a DK. Ah. You know, I kind of like it,
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 3: but the only problem that I would have with it
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 3: is that Germany kind of they're off of like an
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: escape against the Ivory Coast, you know what I mean?
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 3: Where you know, does that mean Germany will kind of
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 3: show up for this still? I don't know, because Germany
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: doesn't need this match, you know what I mean, They've
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: already clinched. So you know what, let's let's be really stupid.
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 3: Let's do it. We'll do Ecuador wind draw at plus
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: one thirty five. Yeah, let's do it. We're gonna lose
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: some place today. Man, I know we're gonna have a
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: bad time here, but let's just do that, you know.
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 3: I just think the setup is a lot better for them.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: They were so much better in that last game than
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: what it looked like. I think they can hang in
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 3: this one given the motivational spot and whatever. All right,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: Japan and Sweden, as we moved to this other group here,
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: which is group?
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: What group is this?
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 3: I don't even know my ancestors from Sweden? Where are
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: you guys at? This is where the hell are the
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 3: group f which this is a close group to between
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: the Netherlands, Japan and Sweden. Tunisia is eliminated, but the
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: other three teams were all separated by one point. So
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: this is a close, close group here. Both teams need
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 3: to win here or need to do something here in Arlington, Texas. Sweden,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: I believe is coming from playing in Houston. We got
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: that one right on the show. Netherlands absolutely blasted Sweden,
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 3: although it wasn't quite as it looked on the scoreboard.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: If you look at what happened in the game, Netherlands
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 3: was the better team, but expected goals was like was
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: two point six to one, so it wasn't really five
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 3: to one, and possession actually in the possession in the
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: shots were actually really close in the game. So I
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 3: don't know how they expected goals get tallied here. I
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: don't know how ESPN figures that out. But this game
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: was closer than the final score looked at the very least,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: So Sweden might be a little bit undervalued here, and
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: that game was I'm pretty sure in Houston. So I
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: think Sweden does have a travel edge because I'm pretty
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: sure Japan is coming in from playing I want to
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: say they played in Mexico. Am I right about that?
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 3: Against Tunisia. They had an easy win against Tunisia. Tunisia
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: is no good this game. Let me see where was
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: this game or match. Excuse me, but Japan dominated this.
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: Tunisia was expected to score point zh five goals with
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 3: no shots on goal. I don't know how that's even possible.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: It should be zero maybe, I don't know. I don't
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 3: know how they figure that out. Japan won the game,
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 3: expected to be like a two nothing win for Japan,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 3: but I mean, Tunisia has just been just a joke
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: in this thing, so whatever. Japan did play well against
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 3: the Netherlands, though, but people are gonna look at that, right,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: this is that common opponent thing. People are gonna say, oh, well,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 3: Japan had a draw against the Netherlands, and the Netherlands
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: wrecked the Netherlands wrecked Sweden, so of course Japan's gonna
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: beat Sweden, right, you know what I mean. But I
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: don't think it works that way man. And yes, I'm right,
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 3: that game for Japan was in Mexico, so their travel
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 3: spot is worse having to travel to Irelington for this.
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna lean to Sweden in this one slightly.
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 3: Japan is the better team at minus one ten, it's
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 3: possible that both teams still make the knockout round because
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 3: you know, I mean, whichever team well, you know what
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 3: these teams could do. They could just kind of play
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 3: to a draw here and each take one point, and
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 3: then whichever team comes in third is probably still gonna
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: advance to the knockout with four points. I think that'll
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 3: probably be enough to get them through. So that is
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 3: an interesting approach where maybe you could look at the
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 3: draw here. It didn't happen with a Canada yesterday, and
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 3: the under didn't happen either. I don't I think I'd
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 3: really want to look towards the under here though, I
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 3: mean Sweden. I don't know the way these teams have
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 3: played so far. I do not like the under here,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 3: but I would lean Sweden slightly though, based on what
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: these teams look like in their last matches here, Like
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: I think it's kind of misleading. So you could get
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 3: Sweden on the win or draw or plus a half
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 3: goal at probably a slight underdog price like plus one
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: thirty probably or something like that. So that might be
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 3: the way to approach that one. Tunisia at the Netherlands.
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: Netherlands actually need points here because as I showed you,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 3: they're in the same group here. Netherlands are in Kansas City,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 3: where I think they're staying in Kansas City or they're no,
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: they're coming up from Texas. They're coming up from Houston,
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 3: so it's still an easy travel spot for them. Tunisia
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 3: is coming in from Mexico, which is not as easy.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 3: Tunisia's eliminated. So now I talk about like I talked
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: about with like Haiti yesterday, what does that mean? Like,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 3: is this team gonna step up their game being eliminated?
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Like, are they gonna actually
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 3: show up and try to play a good game because
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 3: they know this is their last game in the World
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: Cup or are they not gonna do that? But the
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 3: problem with that is that Netherlands are just the way
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: better team here. Netherlands need points here, so the Netherlands
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 3: are not gonna not show up here, you know what
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: I mean. Netherlands only leading their group by one point,
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 3: so they want to win this thing. They're minus a
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: thousand here. Yeah, I mean Netherlands should win this game.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: I mean, maybe this game looks like you go with
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: Netherlands over their team total or something like that. I
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: wouldn't want to really deal with this game though, you know,
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: maybe Tunisia does finally try to get a like put
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 3: a goal in net here. Oh no, they already did.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: I thought they were scoreless in this whole thing. They weren't.
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: They put one goal in against Sweden. But you know,
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 3: maybe in a game like this, you could look towards
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: like both teams to score. That has happened a lot
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 3: in the World Cup so far. It really happened a
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: lot in the first matches that we had, so you
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: could look to that. I mean, that's another market that
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 3: you can look at. I don't love that one because
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 3: it seems kind of flukey, but I know there are
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: professional betters that like to do that. The both teams
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: to score US versus Turkey over well one and a
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 3: half is a really low total though, and it's low
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 3: for a reason. I don't. I don't love that approach.
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 3: I don't love that. Paraguay at Australia here. Australia is
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 3: not eliminated, like their fans are being a bunch of
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: assholes and talking a bunch of shit about the United States.
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: The US just beat Australia, shut them out. But Australia
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 3: does have a win already, an unexpected upset win over Turkey.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 3: So Australia is probably going to advance to the knockout
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: stage because of that, even though that was a bullshit
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 3: win that shouldn't have happened. Australia, they're not good. Paraguay
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: is not good either though, and that tells you how
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 3: bad Australia is, because Australia is actually the slight underdog here.
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 3: Paraguay is plus one sixty five here. This game is
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: in Santa Clara, California. I believe Australia just played in
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 3: California against the US. Let me see, they might have
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 3: been in the same state. No, they're in Seattle. My mistake.
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: It was in Seattle, but not a huge travel spot
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 3: in northern California. Paraguay, though, I'm pretty sure they played
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 3: in Santa Clara in their last game, so Paraguay is
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 3: actually staying in the same stadium here. The problem I
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 3: have with Paraguay is you look at this game. They
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 3: beat Turkey one nothing. Yeah, okay, they did. And what's
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 3: hilarious about this is Paraguay scored two minutes into the game.
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 3: Then they got a red card right around halftime, so
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: Paraguay played the entire second half down a man and
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: Turkey still didn't score against them. How is that even
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: possible that with the main advantage, Turkey still didn't score.
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: I have no fucking idea, dude, But if you look
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 3: at what happened in this game, this is like Turkey
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 3: dominated this game, dude. They expected, they were expected to
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: win this game two to zero. Basically, though of course,
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 3: some of that was because Paraguay was down a man.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: Turkey dominated the possession, had more shots. Some of that
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: was because they were down a man though, I know,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 3: But you know, Turkey still was the better team here.
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 3: They had all the big chances. They still dominated this game.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: When you're down a man, it still doesn't lead to
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: that amount of domination. But this is a completely misleading result.
• 1:24:23
  Speaker 3: Turkey should have won that game. I have no idea
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: how they didn't. They should have beaten Australia too. This
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 3: has been an awful World Cup for Turkey. I'm gonna
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: talk about Turkey and man, I'm talking about Paraguay here first.
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 3: But like I said, Paraguay, yeah, I mean, that was
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: a misleading win for them. They're not good. Both these
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 3: teams do need this game kind of. I think they'll
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 3: both be motivated here because the US has already won
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 3: this group. They have the tiebreaker against Australia. So the
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 3: US has already won Group D. They're up three points,
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: plus they have a huge goal differential, so i'll Australia
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 3: is not coming back there. But Australia is tied with
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 3: Paraguay right now at three points. So these teams both
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 3: need this thing, and if one of them winds up
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: with zero points out of this, there's a chance they
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 3: get eliminated, and I kind of hope it happens to Australia,
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 3: to be honest, dude, if Australia loses, I will celebrate
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: kind of because it'll knock them out because I can't
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 3: stand what their fan base is doing. And it might
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 3: help Scotland get in because Scotland has a better goal differential.
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty sure that Australia would if they lost this game.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 3: So that's what we got going on there. I don't
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 3: really have an opinion here that's that great though. I
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: kind of think Australia might actually get the win here,
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 3: though they've looked better than they actually are. Probably neither
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 3: of these teams are really good. Both teams lost to
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 3: the US. Both teams kind of had a bullshit win
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 3: against Turkey. So both teams have basically done the same thing.
• 1:25:54
  Speaker 3: But yeah, whatever, I don't know. Maybe Australia in a
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 3: winn or draw scenario makes some sense there You'll have
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 3: to pay like minus money on that, but that might
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 3: make sense. Australia winner draw, No, Turkey is eliminated. I
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 3: don't know why that decides, uh the over for you
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 3: or not. I'm gonna talk about that game right now
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 3: because this is the play that I already had on
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: my card here. Uh yeah, we're gonna do it again.
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 3: We're dude, I'm just I'm gonna I'm basically, I'm just
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 3: blindly fading all of the teams that have already advanced.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: Now whatever, I mean, Turkey is eliminated, but we're gonna
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 3: play Turkey plus the half goal here at minus one
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 3: oh five. Everyone is gonna play the US at minus
• 1:26:39
  Speaker 3: one point fifteen. You know what I've said throughout this thing,
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 3: The odds makers are gonna jack the price up on
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: the US in this World Cup because all the books
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: are in the US. They know how much people are
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: gonna bet on the US. They're gonna be the most
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 3: public side in this thing, and people are gonna look
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 3: at what happens. So far, US have won both of
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: their matches. Turkey has looked awful. No one is gonna
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 3: bet Turkey here, but I'm gonna do it. Uh Turkey again,
• 1:27:05
  Speaker 3: I don't know what happened in the last game against Paraguay.
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 3: That was in Santa Clara, California, by the way, So
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 3: they're only traveling to Inglewood here. US is only traveling
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 3: down from Seattle, which isn't that much worse. But Turkey
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 3: I guess a slight edge in the travel. But dude,
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 3: I think Turkey is just even though they're eliminated, basically
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 3: they're free rolling here and they're a better team than this,
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: So I think they're going to show up here. That
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 3: would be my opinion that they're gonna try to get
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 3: something out of this World Cup, like the other teams
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 3: that have been eliminated, like Haiti and what was the
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 3: other team I mentioned, You're curious or no curious? I
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: was not even eliminated yet, but Haiti and there was
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 3: one other team that was eliminated already, Right, No, I
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 3: don't think so. Actually, just Turkey so far here, but
• 1:27:47
  Speaker 3: Haiti is just a legitimately bad team. They're awful Turkey
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 3: is not Turkey was the second best team based on
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 3: the odds. Turkey is the second best team in this group.
• 1:27:58
  Speaker 3: And you could see a bad Paraguay on aust have looked.
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 3: Those are not good teams. So Turkey, this has been
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: an absolutely embarrassing World Cup for them to lose to
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: those two teams. It could be a little bit of redemption,
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: even though they're not going to advance here. I think
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 3: they might want this because it could be a little
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 3: bit of redemption if they're able to beat the US
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 3: in the US, you know what I mean, it would
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 3: at least make their World Cup run look better, you
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 3: know what I mean. So I think they actually want this.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 3: The US has no reason to play here. I know
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 3: they're playing in the US.
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 4: You know.
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 3: One of the arguments yesterday own Mexico wants to play
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: in front of their fans, all right, Yeah, but the
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 3: US has already advanced to the knockout and they're playing
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: this entire tournament in the US. So it's a little
• 1:28:40
  Speaker 3: bit different from Mexico because that was Mexico's last game
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 3: in Mexico. So I acknowledge that that Mexico, once you
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 3: get to the knockout stage. All the games are gonna
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 3: be in the US. I'm pretty sure so Mexico that
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 3: was their last game in the US for the US.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: This will not be for the US. They're gonna continue
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 3: playing in the US. Like I told you, the US
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 3: have already won their group. There's no way they can
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 3: it was that even if they wind up tied with
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 3: Australia or whatever, the US has the tiebreaker against it
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 3: because they already beat them, so doesn't matter. This game
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 3: does not matter at all US. It looks way too
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 3: easy to play them at like minus one fifteen or whatever.
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 3: So I would look at the double chance market, uh,
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 3: in addition to this spread market and find the best number.
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 3: The double chance market was like minus one ten minus
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 3: one fifteen something like that. So I found the better
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 3: at price here with the minus one oh five on
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 3: the plus half goal. We're gonna do it. We're gonna
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 3: take Turkey again. Prior to this tournament started, Turkey was
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 3: supposed to be the second best team in this group.
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 3: I don't think they're as bad as they've looked here
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 3: in this tournament. Really, they're coming off both both of
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 3: their losses were pretty much bullshit. So and I know
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 3: it's not a great sign that they still didn't score
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 3: score against Paraguay who was down a man. But you
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 3: look at you know, the Turkey created enough scoring chances
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 3: to win that game and it didn't happen, so it
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 3: it was pretty misleading. Whereas you know, the US they played,
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 3: they outplayed Australia, but it wasn't like domination from the
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: US against Australia, you know, which Australia is not good.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 3: So really the US should kind of dominate Australia, but
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: they didn't. Really. So that's what we're gonna do here.
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 3: Let's get some wins today, man, that's gonna do it
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 3: for the show here. Today, we're on two first five
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 3: baseball sides here with Toronto minus the half run. Hopefully
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 3: we can get that Mets minus Mets on the money
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 3: line in the first five, and then we're on Ecuador
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: win or draw on the double chance at plus one
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 3: thirty five where I found the better number there and
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 3: we were on Turkey plus the half run for two
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 3: World Cup plays. Let's not fall to three and three, man,
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 3: Let's not do that. I do not want to be
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 3: losing in the World Cup. After we started up three
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 3: and all that is not what I want, but let's
• 1:30:51
  Speaker 3: get it done. That's gonna do it. Soccer is not
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 3: really my thing, though, so I'm just taking a shot
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 3: at it, so I guess, you know, if we wind
• 1:30:58
  Speaker 3: up with a slight loss, I guess it's not the
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 3: end of the world here, but we need to get
• 1:31:02
  Speaker 3: back on track. We had a losing day yesterday. I
• 1:31:04
  Speaker 3: haven't been that great recently, though. We did have a
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 3: couple of winning days. I think the prior couple of days.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 3: Still on a nice run over the last few months here,
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 3: So let's keep it going. Let's get these wins here.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: That's gonna do it. Learn it tod on Twitter, learn
• 1:31:17
  Speaker 3: it Tode on Instagram, listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Speaker.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: That all helps me out too. I appreciate all that
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 3: covered in you because my juke channel on YouTube. I
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: will get back to it. I think I'm getting a
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 3: little bit better, so I will get back to that finally.
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 3: Paedreon dot com, slash learned it toe if you want
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 3: to throw me some support that way, that'll help me
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 3: out as well. The Loser Cast every Tuesday night, so
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 3: you could check that out. We had a fun episode
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 3: on Monday this week, So if you missed it, go
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 3: check that out. Giants New York Giants. G Spot podcast
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 3: will be back at some point, and I believe I
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 3: am going to be on Neflum Death Squad in the
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 3: afternoon tomorrow, So the NDS fans they'll probably be happy
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 3: about that. I don't know if I'm allowed to say that,
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 3: but nobody watches the show anyway. I don't know if
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 3: they're wanting that to be a surprise or not, but
• 1:32:05
  Speaker 3: be on the lookout for that. So I feel like
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 3: we should promote it because I think they get some
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 3: good views when I'm on, So I carry that much weight,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 3: man within their listener base, just that listener base specifically.
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 3: But I'm an no buddy, that's gonna do it. Let's
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 3: get let's have a winning day today, man. We basically
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 3: need to go three and one to win, though, or
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 3: we can go two and two with the Ecuador one
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 3: losing and we'd still have a win if we did that.
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 3: If the big if the underdog out of the out
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 3: of the place is the loser and we go two
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 3: and two, that would still be a slight win. So
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 3: let's at least do that today. That's gonna do it.
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 3: The goal is always to win baby, just win baby.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 3: We're the Al Davis of betting on this show. That's
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 3: gonna do it. Shout out to Matt I think it's
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 3: his name. He's been in this chat before, but not
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 3: for a while. He's in the Twitter group chat that
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: we have where I get ornery all the time in there.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 3: That's the group for this show. I mean, if you
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 3: want to be in that group, let me know. I
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 3: can add you to it on Twitter DM me and
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 3: I'll probably let you into it. It's not I have
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 3: another group chat for my Twitter subscribers. If you want
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 3: in on that, you gotta subscribe to me. But the
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 3: group chat for this show is basically I'm just adding
• 1:33:20
  Speaker 3: people that I think would enjoy being in there that
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 3: they talk about sports. So that's gonna do it. I
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 3: appreciate everybody. Happy Thursday. Peace, But don't you go quiet.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name still means
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: something to somebody for a show. Put the glass down, baby,
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: look at me. No hold on, hold on letting, no.
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, Let me fo you that bites hard,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 4: but it don't get the crown.
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now,