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NFL Week 10 Best Bets · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna start
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I don't
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: even know what to tell you about that. I just
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: don't want to do this anymore. I have never seen
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two straight losses,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: not a good day at all. Oh in four that
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: have not had a good season. Man with wookends the
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've reached
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: into peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins hat man,
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know what is going on with the Bruins
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: arch hape? Is that what it is? I don't even
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: know it's It's March ninth, I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two yesterday and yesterday did not go
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: well for me. Own five the worst month that I've
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I don't
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: know what to even tell you about this anymore. Slump,
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: towed back with you for better off dead NFL Week
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: ten edition. I almost said Week eleven, that's not right.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Week ten today sucked ass as usual, two weeks in
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: a row. We have bad Friday, bad Saturday. Maybe it'll
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: lead into a good Sunday. I don't fucking know. I
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: don't know what I'm doing at this point. Do I
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: know anything at this point? No, Although we would have
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: had a winning day if it wasn't for bullsh in
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: the fucking Vanderbilt game. Yet again, it's fucking Vandy going
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: against them, screwing us Auburn or going with Auburn. How
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: about that too, Auburn. It seems like every time I'm
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: on them, some bullshit happens. Auburn. They were winning the
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: game outright for a bit, they were within the spread
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: for like the entire second half. Pretty much. It goes
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: into overtime, really high percentage chance they're gonna cover. If
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: you have the game going into overtime, you're taking almost
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: a touchdown underdog. Obviously you called the game right now.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: They go ahead, and they lose by fucking seven in
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: overtime because in whatever overtime period it was, Vandy gets
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the first possession, they score its touchdown, and then Auburn
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: has to match that and what do they do, Oh yeah,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: they turn it over and downs, so you lose the
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: play by a fucking half point. I don't think. I
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: don't I do not think the seven was ever out there.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to tell you about this. And
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: then both hockey losses were bullshit, like we had the
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: lead early. I think. Get both of those hockey games.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what to say about it anymore. Utah,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: the final score in that one. I think it was
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: the Utah one that was a six to two final.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I mean that game was like three to two with
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: five minutes left in the game probably or something like that,
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: So that game was not out of reach, or maybe
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I might be thinking of the other I don't even know.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: But if you look at what happened in the game
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: like that Utah in Washington both statistically dominated their games,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: like they had more shots, more face off wins, more hits.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure, just total bullshit in those games. I'm
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: fucking pissed, like I don't think any of them should
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: have lost. Of course, we did get the win of
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: the Islanders, so whatever, football, I mean, what do you want?
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Like Texas Tech started off well, that was an easy win.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: Boston College didn't even get up for the Red Bandana game.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: Even though BC that was a low scoring game. Pretty
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: deep into the game it looked like, yeah, they were
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: like a touchdown away from covering for a bunch, but
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: then all of a sudden, they're losing like forty to ten,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Like what the fuck? I don't know what the fuck
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: happened in that game. Yukon won outright, so we got
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: that game right. That was That was a good call. Finally,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: that one a Missouri basically got absolutely ass blasted by
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Texas A and M's. That was fucking fun. That one
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: was never even close to happening. So that was a
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: terrible call. Auburn, as we already talked about, was total
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: bullshit college basketball. Good call by me on Boise State,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: that was a pretty easy win. Even though the market
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: actually wound up being against it. They won easy, but
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I think they won by like at least thirty I
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: think in that game that was an easy win for Bois.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: They actually scored over one hundred points, which they usually
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: do not do. Speaking of basketball, Sun's Clippers on right now,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: isn't that just great? Everybody wants to watch that piece
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: of shit? Colorado won. It didn't cover because of course
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: they did. Fuck them. They were basically never in position
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: to cover that. So that was a loser, even though
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: the market seemed to agree with it. Queen's missed the
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: cover by two points. I mean that they were just
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: hanging around like close to that number the whole time
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Queen's was and they fell on the wrong side of it.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: In the end, I was thinking Villanova would just kind
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: of take their foot off the gas, play a little
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: bit slower and that would get within that number there.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: But no, we lost by one and a half points
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: on that one. And then what was the other one?
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Tarlton State. That line moved a lot. That
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: line moved up to like three, so what like hopefully
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: people still played it because it won anyway. I mean,
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: they won pretty easily. They would have won and covered
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: any of those numbers. So we did get Tarleton right,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: and then the New Orleans Saints and or the New
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Orleans Saints. Oh god, am I projecting? Am I gonna
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: have a play in the New Orleans Saints this week? Oh?
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: My god? The Pelicans got in the back door that game.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: They were just kind of hovering close the whole time,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: and they were able to make a little bit of
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: a run in the last couple of minutes and push it,
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: and they actually pushed it within three points near the
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: end of that game. They lost by six, So we
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: did get the Pelicans cover, correct, Jamison? What's up man? Yeah,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I'm still alive for now, probably not for long, Charles,
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. Justin de Missouri Missouri
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: state win. I didn't even see it. Did they actually
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: win out right against Liberty? If so? I was wrong
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: about that game? But I did not give out a
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: play on a dirty sock? What's up? Yeah? I'm gonna
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: fucking end it all man. What do you like? What
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: do you want the Yeah, dude, I'm never not. It's
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: like every time I'm either playing on an Auburn game
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: on Auburn or against Vandy, I wind up getting so
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: fucking pissed off. It's absolutely ridiculous. Bobby, what's up man?
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: When min Yama? I don't think he's possible to figure out,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Like he just has a physical advantage, Like it doesn't
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: even matter if you figure him out. Like he just
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: has a ridiculous wingspan, he's tall, and he can play
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: kind of on the perimeter as well. I mean, there's
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: no real recipe for doing that. Like that was a
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: game where I just think san Antonio just didn't really
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: give a shit about the game. That's that's that was.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: That was the reason why I went against them in
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: that game. I was just like, bad spot for san Antonio.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: But maybe not a great sign that they didn't do
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: that well against a Pelican team that doesn't have their
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: big man right now in Zion. But I don't know,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: justin Sam Houston versus Oregon State, I'm I do not
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: even know what's going on. What channel is that on.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: I have no idea the CW or something like that,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: CBS Sports, I don't know. A late touchdown on an
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: oh and then an interception to end the game. That's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: pretty crazy. I'm kind of surprised. Now Liberty is not
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: gonna make the conference championship. The most ridiculous game of
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: the day, by the way, was a loser for our
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: boy Rowdy Rhymes. You know what I'm talking about, the
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: dude who has like cerebral palsy or whatever, and he's awesome, dude.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: He was on such a hot streak, you know what
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: I'm talking about. He wears a hat. He makes those
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: short videos where he doesn't even explain himself. He just
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: tells you what his play is. But one of his
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: plays that he had a parlay that of Washington minus
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the points. I'm like, that's not gonna be good. Because
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: I liked Wisconsin in that game. I was somewhat considering
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: making that a play to name Wisconsin won the game outright.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: But that was one of the most ridiculous games that
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: you'll ever see. Like, congratulations to anybody who had the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: under in that game, because that game, the longest touchdown
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: drive in the entire game was a seven yard touchdown drive.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: The other and the other one was one yard like
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: there was a turnover or something that set up a
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: one yard touchdown drive. Those are the only two touchdowns
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: in the game, and Wisconsin's quarterback got hurt in the game.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: They put in some backup quarterback or maybe two of them,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and they both didn't do shit. And Wisconsin's leading passer
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: in the game was their punter who never actually lined
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: up as quarterback. I think he just made one completion
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: on a fake punt and he was the leading passer
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: with like one twenty yard pass or something like that,
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: and they won the game, which I don't even know.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to say about that, but it's
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: one of the most hilarious things. Wemba's had a slump
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: last few games. Well, one of them was against Houston.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, Houston could kind of counter him because Houston
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: has the tallest line up in the NBA, so that
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: might be like part of the reason why. And I
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, I think the spot was just
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: kind of way. Did san Antonio win that game or
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: do they lose? I can't remember now. No, the san
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: Antonio actually beat Houston, right, I don't know. Well, who's
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: figure who's figuring san Antonio out? I don't know of.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: San Antonio did lose to the Lakers, which I didn't
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: really expect because san Antonio has the better deepense. Although
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: san Antonio is still covered in that game. I don't know.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I'm not really watching all these games to see what's
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: going on. But still I think he's a physical freak.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: Like I don't really think you could possibly like figure
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: him out and like stop him. Does he have AIDS?
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: I don't know. He is French, but he missed a
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: lot of time last year because of he had like
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: a blood clot, and I'm thinking that doesn't that like
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: end your career if you have a blood clot. I
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: don't know, but he's out there. He might collapse on
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: the court like Reggie Lewis style. One of the things
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: that ruined the Celtics chances in my childhood, though, that
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: was because Reggie Lewis was on cocaine, which stopped his heart.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: It's on the CW. Should I put it on c W.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna put it on right now, baby, And we
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: gotta get into the NFL. I got my Jackson Dart jersey.
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Here here we go, baby, my Chinese knockoff jerseys that
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: actually basically look better than the Fanatics ones. Fuck Fanatics.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: They should sponsor me a fanatics. You gotta pay like
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: hundreds of bucks for these things and then I'm like, no,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna get a Chinese wholesale jersey, and it's like
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: almost the same quality and they don't really fuck it
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: up or anything. You just have to wait like three
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: weeks for it to come internationally and then through the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: US Postal Service. There we go. It's on right now.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Sam Houston down by three in the third quarter. It
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: looks like here seems like actually an interesting game. These
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: two teams bowl blow though. Dude, I forgot to talk
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: about this game on my show. But Oregon State, I
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: was correct about their game last week. They actually pulled
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: off the upset against Washington State, which was their that's
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: their only conference rival, their only conference opponent, so that
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: was a big game. So I kind of thought this
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: was a little bit of a letdown spot for Oregon State.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I just didn't know about Sam Houston having to go
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: out to the Pacific coast. Phoenix gave out a blueprint
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: for figuring out wemby. I I don't know. I still
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: don't think so. I mean, I think he's still gonna
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: do it really well. Like I still just don't think
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: you can really stop him. I'm gonn I'm gonna put
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: on my Wemby Jersey the next time, I have a
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Spurs play just for you, baby, just for Bobby. I
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: don't know what we're talking about here at this point.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Let me get into the NFL here though. Oh, both
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: these teams are terrible, Yeah for sure, all right, NFL man.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm gonna give out three plays here, and
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: my night is tentative right now. I'm gonna wait for
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the Monday night game because I
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: do like one of the sides, but the market is
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: kind of against it right now, So I'm holding off
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: on the Monday night game, and I'm gonna talk about
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: it again on Monday morning and maybe give out a
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: play on that at some point. We'll see. But I'm
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: gonna give about three other plays here, and you're gonna
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: hate these. I guarantee that, well, you might hate one
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: of them more than the other ones, because you know
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: me with my ugly underdog plays. You know there's gonna
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: be at least one of those in there. NFL first
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: game up. Unfortunately, we have more NFL Europe to deal
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: with here. We have a Berlin game now, and next
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: week there's gonna be a game fucking Madrid where I've been,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: by the way, I've not been to Berlin. I've been
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: to Madrid, though I don't have anything to say about
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: that except I think when I was in Madrid, I
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: ordered a steak where I didn't know what the meat
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: was gonna be, and it was this really weird rare
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: red meat. It was very tender with some salt sprinkled on.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: It was like a filet, and I'm almost certain that
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: it was horse. But it actually tasted pretty good, so whatever,
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: And it wasn't that expensive, so I'm not gonna complain.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: It was, like, I don't know, it was with some
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: dudes like we gotta find some food, man like after midnight,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Like hey, this restaurant is open. This doesn't look sketchy.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Let's let's go eat here. Oh they have a steak
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: on the menu. All right, Oh what is this? All right?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: The Berlin game, it does involve my Indianapolis Colts against
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons. This is a hard game for me
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: to read, man, because basically, immediately you're gonna know that
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: the Colts are gonna be a favorite here and probably
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: favored by too much, so the public is probably still
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Colts side. And probably unjustifiably, and
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: that is what the market is reflecting. Colts are down
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: actually from a seven point favorite to with a six
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite, which may have been the
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: seven might have been the look ahead. So maybe the
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: Colts got docked a little bit because of their performance
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: last week. Seventy seven percent of tickets, only seventy three
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: percent of cash on the Colts, So market Reid just
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: pure market. Reid says, take the points with the Falcons,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: and generally I would probably say, yeah, I would agree
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: with that, because I do think India is not as
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: good as they look, as I've been talking about for
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: a while now. I recommended maybe going against them last week,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: which wasn't one of my plays, but I did a
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: pick against Indy last week. Indy just has played a
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: pretty easy schedule man so far, so I don't think
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: they're as good as the record looks. Their offense has
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: been pretty good though. Now the question with this game
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: really is though, which team is going to travel better?
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Because I don't think either of these teams was really
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: used to going and playing in these Europe games, So
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: which team is gonna play better here? I don't know,
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: that is the question. I think what you want to
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: do is like look and see if you can find
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: information about which team traveled over there earlier, because I
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: think if a team got over there earlier and adjusted
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: to the time zone earlier, that's a little bit of
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: an edgile. I know it didn't work out for Jacksonville,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: who should have had the experience going out there and
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: they had the edge of going out there earlier, and
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: they still got completely wrecked. So who knows. Based on
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: what happened last week, though, it almost looks like the
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: colt should be in a bounced back spot though, because
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: they lost that game as a favorite at Pittsburgh. It
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: did end a win streak for the Colts, though, so
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: sometimes when you lose a win streak, it hangs you
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: over into the next game, although that wasn't the case
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: when the Colts lost to the Rams earlier. They came
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: out and they just bounced back and destroyed the Raiders
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: in the next game, So maybe they'll bounce back from it.
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: One thing about this Pittsburgh game, though, is it was
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: very misleading the fact that Pittsburgh won the game outright.
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: If you look at the stats in this game, it's
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: not what you would expect in They outgained Pittsburgh by
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty yards one hundred and forty three yards,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: They out first downed them by nine first downs, and
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: they outpossessed them by a few minutes. The reason why
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: they lost the game is because they had six turnovers
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: minus five and turnovers that's ridiculous. That's an outlier that's
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: probably not gonna happen again. So it does look like
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: based on that box where you should expect Indy to
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: do better this time, and they they fucking better because
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: I have Jonathan Taylor in fantasy and that's like the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: main reason I lost last week was Jonathan Taylor was
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: a total no show, and so was Patrick Mahomes and
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: he's on by this week, so I need Taylor to
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: do something here. As far as Atlanta is concerned, they're
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: coming off a tougher game they hung with New England.
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: They actually played pretty well in this game against New England,
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: although New England did outgain them I think by about
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: one hundred yards in this game. No, actually I'm wrong,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: it was actually about less than fifty. I'm wrong about
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: that because I know New England had some turnovers. They
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: were minus two in turnovers that helped Atlanta stay in
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: the game. But I think it was just kind of
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: a big game for Atlanta. I mean, they played close,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: they actually had a chance to win the game at
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: the end, and they missed an extra point. Parker Romo,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: looks like Atlanta should not have cut Yung Way Kou.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: What are they gonna do cut every one of their
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: kickers that this is an extra point? Oh coo, this
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: is an extra point in week one? Or no, he
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: missed a field goal. I guess in week one. I
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: think it was that could have won them the game
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: against the Buccaneers, which they should have won. Oh yeah,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: you're cut from the team now, Parker Romo. This is
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: an extra point and that would have tied the game
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: against New England. But he's still there. I don't know.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: And Yung Wai Ku is on this team, the New
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: York Giants, and it looks like he might play. I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: don't know, because they have Graham Gano too, so I
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: don't know. Kicking situation very weird for the Giants right now.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: But anyway, based on the situation here, I actually think
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: I would I would lean towards Indy slightly, just because
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: it was a very misleading loss, and I would kind
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: of expect them to bounce back a little bit, whereas
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Atlanta had a tougher game last week. But Market Reid
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: is saying take the points of the Falcons. So I
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: don't like it when situation could flicks with Market. Don't
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: love it at all. I don't know which way I'm
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: gonna go tomorrow, to be honest, like, and that's gonna
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: that game is gonna go probably before I do my
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: morning show tomorrow. So I don't even know which pick
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: I would give out in this one right now, man,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I guess I would say probably. It depends on what
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: number you have in your game, is what I would say.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: Like if you're picking, you know on ESPN, whatever your
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: game is, if you have seven or seven and a half,
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: I would probably take it with the Falcons, But if
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: it's six and a half, I would probably lay it
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: with the Colts. I mean, that's how week of an
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: opinion I have on that one. The next game up
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: is the game everybody's waiting for a baby, Browns and Jets.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I know everybody won once this game. The Jets basically
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: unloaded half the roster at the trade deadline, which we
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: know they traded Sauce Gardener to my Indianapolis Colts. So,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: by the way, I'm assuming he's gonna play for the
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: Colts this week, I would guess, so the Colts should
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: have that going on a little bit of an improvement
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: on defense. Maybe the Jets traded I believe one of
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: their defensive linemen was that quin and Williams, Quinn Williams,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: whatever his name is, he went to Dallas. I want
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: to say, is that right? Did I get that right?
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: I don't even know, But we know that the Jets
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: unloaded a bunch of their players, and that's basically a
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: signal that, hey, we're packing it in for the season.
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: Although you could have probably already guessed that because the
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Jets have one win, but the Jets were kind of
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: underperforming a little bit and a little bit better than
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: their record will look. But now it looks like maybe
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the mindset of the Jets is gonna be We're just
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: not gonna give a shit for the rest of the season.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Like so you gotta try to weigh that, which is
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: it's really difficult to figure out if that's gonna be
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: the Jets mindset or not. Now after those trades, happened.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: The Jets went from like a two or two and
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite all the way to the Browns
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: actually being a two point favorite pretty much here. So
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: the line completely flipped basically just based on those trades.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: So I think the Browns actually traded one of their
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: defensive players away too. But is that line moving over reaction?
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: It might be. I mean, the public doesn't want anything
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: to do with the Jets still, to the point where
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the public is actually on the Browns as a road favorite.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: I mean, when are you ever gonna see that be
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: the case and one of the Browns ever a road favorite? Never,
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm not sure that. I'm not sure that it's
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: justified to make the Browns a road favorite. Man, it
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: depends on whether the Jets will actually show up and
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: try to win this game or not. Sixty nine percent
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: of tickets fifty five percent of the cash on the Browns,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: so they're public with less of the money on them.
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: So i'man I guess just based on the market read
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: when I really don't have a strong opinion, otherwise I
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: would have to lean towards taking that those points of
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the Jets or just leaning to the Jets. I guess
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: win the game, which sounds a bit ridiculous. Both of
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: these teams are coming out of a bye, which, by
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: the way, the byes this week are Cincinnati, Dallas, Tennessee,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: and Kansas City. Unfortunately Kansas City because I have Mahomes
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: and Rice and Fantasy, but what can you do. They
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: have to have a bye at some point. I'm sitting
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: at seven and two after losing last week in my
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: main league, so I'm pissed because I'm probably gonna lose
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: again this week. Anyway, Brown's Jets both coming out of
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: a bye, This is gonna be a horrendous game, though,
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: Like however you look at it, both teams could be tanking,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: so I don't know, man. The Browns went into the
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: buy in a really bad note, getting blown out by
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: New England, so that buye actually came in a decent time,
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: because when a buye comes when you had a bad
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: game going into the buy, sometimes you'll use that buy
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: to fix some things. So maybe Cleveland will be embarrassed
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: off of that loss to New England try to fix
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: some things. Although for Cleveland, I mean this offense with
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: Dylan Gabriel, I mean this offense has done nothing I mean,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: this has not been the answer, So I don't know, man,
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: But they do have a better by spot because the
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Jets went into a buye on their first wins. Like
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: what happens, Oh, the Jets are owned seven. They finally
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: win a game in a crazy high scoring game against
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: an awful Cincinnati deepfense, and as soon as they get
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: some momentum and break that losing momentum, oh yeah, shit,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: we have a bye. The Jets had a buye, and
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: I think that buye came in a bad time for them,
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: and they do have to turn around it. On Thursday,
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: they got to play New England. You know, this Jets team,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: if they're not showing up for games that might be
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: a game, they still might show up for having to
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: play against New England. And that's gonna be in four
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: days on Thursday. So actually, the situation to me does
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: look like it's actually better for the Browns. So this
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: is another game where it's situation versus market. So it's
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: like which one do you want to go with here?
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Like I usually tend to my autism basically basically like
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: gets in my head and goes no toad, Like you
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: don't know more than the than the market, like as
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: a whole, Like you don't know more than all of
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: these actors acting in the market. I'm like, well, I
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: don't know, do I or don't I? Cause like sometimes
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: when I think that I know the situation, like it
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: feels like that beats the market more than it loses
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: to the market if they're differing. So I don't know.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: So both these first games, that's what I have to
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: say about them, though, I guess both both of these
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: first games, the situation will read for me is against
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: the market and both of them. So market says Falcons
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: and Jets. Situation will read at least the way that
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: I it says, uh, Colts and Brown's. So I don't know.
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: I'm do with that information what you will? I guess
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: The next game up, this one is almost a play
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: for me. This is the first game where I actually
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: have a stronger opinion on it. Saints Panthers. Panthers are
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: up from a three and a half point favorite to
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: a five and a half point favorite. Panthers are public
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: seventy five percent, ticket seventy two percent of the cash.
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna lean to taking the points with the Saints here, man,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Like that's what I would do in this game. I
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: just don't know, because, like I've taken the points with
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: the Saints so many times this year and lost like
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: one of my own three uh one and three? Maybe
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: did the Saints cover for me once? I forget? Uh yeah, no,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: the Saints did cover for me against the Giants once.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I think I'm one in three playing on
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: the Saints this year. So it's I gotta stop, baby,
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: and this will be the time where it does happen. Now,
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: the Panthers probably don't deserve to be a favorite like this,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: so there are definitely some things that I like about
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: the Saints here. I mean the Panthers. I think the
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: last time they were a favorite of this magnitude was
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: probably years ago. I would imagine, like the Panthers are
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: never a favorite like this, and that's just how disrespected
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the Saints are on the market. And maybe it's justified
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: because the Saints probably one of the worst teams in football.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's them and Tennessee are actually probably even
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: worse than the Jets. Panthers are in a bad spot here, though,
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I mean we know this. I gave out the Panthers
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: as a play last week. And what did they do. Yeah,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: they pulled off an upset of the green Bay Packers.
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: So that was a big, double digit upset. But I
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: told you the reason for playing against the Packers in
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: that game was the Packers. We're in a sandwich spot.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: I thought the Packers were not going to show up
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: in that game because the Panthers, or excuse me, the Packers.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: We're coming off that big win in the Aaron Rodgers
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: Bowl Sunday night primetime against Pittsburgh, huge game, and they
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: had this big Monday night game up this week against Philadelphia,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: which is also playoff revenge for green Bay because Philly
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: knocked them out of the playoffs last year. So I
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: was like, they're gonna overlook Carolina here. I didn't really
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: expect Carolina to win outright, but they did. So now
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Carolina coming up that ridiculous upset, and it was not
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: as good as it really looked, because again, it was
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: I think more green Bay just playing poorly than Carolina
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: playing well. So I don't think Carolina deserves to be
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: this much of a favorite against anybody, to be honest,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: under any circumstance. If you look at this game, it
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: was just ugly on both sides this game Carolina against
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: green Bay. Green Bay did outgain Carolina by over one
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: hundred yards, so Carolina did not outplay green Bay statistically
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: in this game, so it was a little bit of
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: a misleading result there too. So that's gonna make Carolina
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: look better than they actually were. And even though this
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: is a divisional game, I don't think anybody's gonna take
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: New Orleans very seriously and Carolina up next, they do
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: have Atlanta, which is a bigger divisional game coming up
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: after this, so it is basically a sandwich spot that
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Carolina is in here. It's just I don't I don't
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: know if I could do it, man, I don't know
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: if I could recommend another play on New Orleans. As
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: horrible as they are, they're on a four game loss street.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, they did get blown out in their last game,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: but this is gonna be a second straight road game
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: for them now, which I don't particularly love that type
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: of setup. And they haven't had a bye yet, so
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: it's actually a third road game in four weeks, so
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: that does kind of worry me a little bit. And
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: they're traveling from the Pacific coast because they were just
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: in La all the way east. So I do worry
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: a little bit about New Orleans. They're gonna have Shaw
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: again or shuck? How do you pronounce his name? About it?
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: What is he shucking? Corn? I don't know. The Louisville
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: grad him. I mean, he hasn't been horrible, really, but
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, do we trust him? I
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean maybe we trust him to cover
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: against a weak team like Carolina, And I mean Saints
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: have been embarrassed last couple of weeks, and they were
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: playing better earlier earlier in the season. Last week they
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: were my only loss out of the three plays I
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: gave out, and they did get pretty much dominated in
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: this game, though the Rams outgained the my two hundred
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: yards more than two hundred yards out first down them
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: thirty to ten, I outpossess them forty four to sixteen.
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: This is a bad call on my part. I mean,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: that was not even a very misleading result, even though
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: New Orleans did have two turnovers as well. Given all
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: of that, I don't know that I can actually do it.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I can give it out as
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: a play. I'll pick New Orleans plus the points and
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: my pickums and stuff. But that one's not gonna make
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: my card, although if I added an extra one, it
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: would probably be that one of the Saints. But I'm
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: not gonna do it, man, I can't do it. Bets
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: on the spectrum. Yeah, well, obviously the Saints are garbage.
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: That's factored into the line. Pulled pork sandwich spot. Yeah,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean, like this team is garbage that
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: like thought is always built into the line, man, So
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: that's why you're always getting a ton of points. Like
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: Caroline and I think they're five and four right now.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: There's no way they deserve to be five and four.
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: That Carolina team is shit, Like they are not five.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: They are not worthy of being above five hundred at all.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Like they're definitely gonna regress, and maybe it starts here,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: like they do not deserve to be a favorite of
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: anywhere near this magnitude. And I'm pretty sure the three
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: and a half was the look ahead, So before last
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: week's games, it was a three and a half and
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: now it's five and a half entirely just based off
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: of last week's results. So you know that you're getting
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: value taking the points of the Saints there based on
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: that number, Like, just look at the number. That number
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: is just too high. There's no doubt about it. It
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: would be a pull pork sandwich if you were oh yeah,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: cause it's Carolina, that's right exactly. I think it would
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: be a pull pork sandwich if you were in a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Carolina sandwich. Like if you had played Carolina the previous
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: week and then you have to play them again next week,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: I think that would be That would be the pullpork
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot. All right, Bill's Dolphins. You know it. It's
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays, baby, you know what
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be. So I'll skip that one for now.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Jaguars Texans. This one is a difficult read for me.
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: We're still in the one PM slate here, Texans down
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: from a three point favorite to a pick them here,
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of tickets, only fifty two percent of
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: the cash. So I think the three was a look ahead.
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: But I do think the Texans came out as a
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: slight favorite here of like one one and a half,
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: and now all of a sudden, it looks like the
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Texans are public for whatever reason. Don't really know why
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: they would be, because the Jags have the better record,
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: I don't understand why the public would be on the Texans,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: and the public doesn't like bad offenses usually, which definitely
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: that definitely describes the Texans. Bad offense, good defense, so
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: they usually fly under the radar. So I thought I
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: was gonna be leaning towards the Texans in this game,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: but the money is saying completely otherwise, so maybe I won't.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: This is a revenge spot for Houston though. So Houston
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: did lose at Jacksonville seventeen to ten earlier in the season,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: so a lot of times that second of the divisional matchup,
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: you do want to look towards the team that lost
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: the first matchup. But I think it's stronger when you're
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: getting that team as a road underdog. I think that's
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: usually the strongest. Like if that team lost at home
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: in the first matchup, now the road underdog in the
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: second game, that works out a little bit better. As
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: far as the scheduling spot here, Jacksonville didn't look very
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: good really in their win against the Raiders, because I
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: think people just don't give the Raiders any credit, and
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars were basically they were a two point conversion
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: away from losing that game. In overtime to the Raiders,
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: even though they looked good and that they scored thirty points.
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: I think the public is actually not going to give
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville credit for beating the Raiders and almost losing to them,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: and they would have lost if it was a two
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: point if that two point conversion came through for the Raiders.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Although I think the Raiders are actually not quite as
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: bad as they appear to be based on the record.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, as you saw the Raiders, I mean they
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: played pretty well on Thursday night, really well, or both
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: teams just didn't play well. I don't know. However you
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: look at it, that was one of the most horrendous games,
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: really offensively that you'll ever see the Broncos and Raiders.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: The Raiders should have beaten the Bears at the very least.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, they had that game dominated statistically and lost
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: that game and some bullshit at the end. Jamison, that
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: is a correct point. That is a good point. The
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: Jags are without Travis Hunter and what's beachy? J is it?
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Brian Johnson? Is that his name? I forget his name,
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: whatever his name is. Yeah, So the Jags are down
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: some of their weapons and of course Hunter plays on
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: both sides of the ball. So yes, they have lost
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: some of their players, so but the money's coming in
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: towards the Jaguars. Here. It is a second straight road
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: game for the Jaguars, but I don't really hate that
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: that much because they did have a bye before last week,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: so they are somewhat more fresh because they did have
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: the buye. They didn't look good last week because I
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: think the public, the public was all over the Jaguars
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: just because they wanted nothing to do with the Raiders.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: So again, I think the public is not going to
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: put any stock into what Jacksonville did, but I think
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: they actually will put some stock into Houston playing really
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: well against Denver and Houston should have won that game,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: but we know Stroud got knocked out of the game.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: My boys, Stroud, I have one of his jerseys, one
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: of those cool blue jerseys that are like the Oilers
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: colors that are just gonna piss off Titans fans. So
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: shout out to our boy and the Titans fan if
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: he's ever in the chat, he's gonna be pissed when
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I when I wear that Stroud jersey. Houston, though I
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: mean they played close against Denver, they still could have
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: won that game, even though Davis Mills came into the game.
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: Mills is at least experienced, although he's certainly not as
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: good as Stroud. I think if Stroud was in there,
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: Houston would have won the game. They blew the game late.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: They're winning the game fifteen to seven. Late in the game.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: They wound up losing the game in the end. I'm
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: pissed because I had Houston as one of my picks.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I think they should have won the game. But I
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: think the public's gonna like what Houston did there because
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: they almost beat Denver, and Denver is the hype right now. Man.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Everybody's hyping up Denver because Denver's eight and two or whatever.
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: Everybody's saying they're gonna go to the super Bowl, which
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think so. I mean, I think Denver's being very,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: very overrated right now. They've won a lot of close
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: games and this was one of them. But maybe Houston
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: gets a little bit overvalued here. Oh you know what,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I'm an idiot, Obviously, I'm an idiot. The reason why
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: the line moved from three to a Pickham obviously is
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: because Stroud is still out. I don't know what I'm
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: doing like, oh yeah, Brian, yeah, Brian, uh yeah, Thomas junior.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: And that's what that's what it is. Yeah, correct, I
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: don't know what I was. I was I thinking it
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: was Johnson. Yeah, Brian Thomas junior. Okay, but yes, the
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: reason why the line moved to a Pickham is because
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Stroud is out, so Davis Mills is coming in. Yes,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: he's at least experienced, although he's not great, although the
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: Texans have not really relied on quarterback much this year,
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. I mean, the books are saying
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: it's a three point down grade, which isn't that much
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: for a quarterback like drop off from Stroud to Mills.
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: You'd think it would actually be more. And it did
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: drop the total down from forty one and a half
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: to thirty seven and a half. So we have a
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: low total here in this one man, And we have
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: a low total at thirty eight in the Saints Panthers
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: game and thirty seven and a half in Brown's Jets.
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: So those games look like they're gonna be ugly, ugly games.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: But this game, the money, like the market reed is
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: still saying the Jags here in this game, though, and
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: maybe but one thing that I will say about Houston
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: is it's gonna be the injured player spot because Stroud
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: got knocked out of the last game. So this is
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be the first game that Mills starts this season
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: at least, so you know that I always talk about this.
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: In the first game where you have the injured quarterback,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the team usually steps up their level of play because
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: they know they have to like show up for that game, right,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: Like they have to put in a bigger amount of
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: effort to win that game. But there is still an
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: issue with Houston, and that is that they're coming off
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: that close game against Denver, so they could be in
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a hangover spot after that. And
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Denver their defense is very physical, so is Houston's. That
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: was a very punishing game. And by the way, I
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: think teams after they played Denver, I'm pretty sure those
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: teams are like one in eight against the spread on
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the season or something like that. So it's not good.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: By the way, if you guys want to guess in
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: the chat, there's one team this season where teams that
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: played that team the next week after playing that team,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: the teams have not covered the spread at all. The
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: teams are zero to eight after they have played this team.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: If you want to try to guess which team that is,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: and I'm laughing for reasons, you'll probably be able to
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: guess which team that is. But Denver is close. Teams
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: that have played Denver, they'll only covered the spread, I
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: believe once. You can check me if I'm wrong about
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: that in the next game. So that is a concern.
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: I've spent too much time looking at this one game,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: which I'm not even gonna give it out a play on,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: but the money is saying Jaguars right now. I'm not
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: really gonna disagree with it, but we'll see. I'm gonna
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: give out a play on Ravens and Vikings, which hopefully
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: that's gonna be one that works out for us. We'll see, Jamison,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: you are correct, sir, The Jets are the correct answer
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: to that teams the week after they face the Jets.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: No team has covered the spread this entire season, and
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: there is no team in that spot right now because
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the Jets had a bye last week, so no team
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: is in the is in the post Jets spot this week. Yeah,
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: it's just insane that that's the case. I don't even
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: know why, because the Jets defense hasn't been that good
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: this year, and usually they are pretty good, all right, Yeah,
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: Ravens Vikings, I'm skipping it for now. I'll give it
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: out a play on that one. Patriots Buccaneers. This is
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game, man. The Bucks are two
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. It looks like it's headed
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: towards three. So if you do like the Bucks, you
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: got to try to get it at two and a
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: half or maybe money line it four taking sixty nine
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on Tampa, so the money is
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: somewhat coming in on Tampa. Charles, you hate the Jets.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: I kind of like them because I've played on them
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: six times this year and those plays have gone four
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: and two. So I don't have really anything bad to
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: say about the Jets this year. Last year I did
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: because I think I have had more losses than wins
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: on the Jets last year. Now, New England and Tampa Bay,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: New England, they're they're one of the hype trains right now.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: I mean it's New England and Denver. Everybody's just anointed
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: in these two teams right now. And if you look
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: at New England's schedule, it's been really really fucking easy, dude.
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at their wins. Their wins are against Miami, Carolina, Buffalo. Yeah,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: that was a good win on the road. Fine, but
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: then New Orleans, Tennessee, Cleveland, and then Atlanta. I mean
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: that's an okay win. But still, I mean, this has
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: been a very, very weak schedule. They're going back on
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: on the road again to face Tampa, and Tampa is
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: gonna be the best team that they've faced since Buffalo,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: even though you know, I have my gripes with Tampa
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: eating that, like well basically that I think that they're
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: all overrated because they win a lot of one score games.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: But the Patriots are probably overhyped right now, man, I
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: think Tampa is a little bit less hyped. Patriots are
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: coming into this game on a win streak, still looking
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: pretty good, even though they didn't cover last week. I
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: think beating Atlanta still makes them look pretty good. Everybody
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: loves Drake May right now, and this, by the way,
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: is gonna be May versus Mayfield on May's Field on
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: the Mayfield and May in the State of the Mayflower.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: A lot of stuff going on, but this is like
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: a quarterback MVP battle type of thing. Men where you
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: have like you have like Mahomes and Allen at the top.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: I think right for the MVP odds right now, and
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: then for a while it was Baker Mayfield was in third,
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: and now Drake may has overtaken him in third. So
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: I actually think that Mayfield might have a little bit
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: extra motivation here, man, because Drake may overtook him in
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: the MVP odds. If the following that because Drake may
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: is excusing Baker Mayfield has kind of fallen off a
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: little bit. Their names are so close to the same, man,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: Drake er Mayfield, I don't know, Bake may That's that's
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: when you smoke pot in the month of May. But yeah, Tampa,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: they look less impressive recently because they lost to Detroit,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: although everybody knows Detroit's good, but still Tampa only put
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: up nine points in that game, and then beating New Orleans.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna care that Tampa Bay beat New Orleans. Nobody's
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: gonna give them any credit for that. Tampa went into
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the buy off of that, so yes, technically a guess
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: they went into the buy in a good note facing
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: New Orleans. But I think they're gonna use that bye
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: to prepare for this, man, Like, I don't necessarily think
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: that they went into that by thinking like, oh, hell yeah,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: we're so good right now because we beat New Orleans.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. So I don't think that
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: buye is gonna really be like a momentum stopper necessarily
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: for this team or negative. So I agree with the
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: marketing this one. I would slightly lean to Tampa bayo.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: This is a difficult read, but Tampa's faced the more
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: difficult schedules so far. Man, There's no doubt about it.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: Like they also beat Atlanta on the road, although I
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: think they should have lost that game. They played Houston, Philadelphia, Seattle,
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: San Francisco, Detroit, much more difficult schedule for Tampa Bay.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I think Mayfield might be a little bit more motivated
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: here because may has overtaken him, and Mayfield's the more
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: long standing quarterback. That might be like, hey, take a
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: step back, new guy. So I agree Tampa. Plus, I
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: think the buy might actually help them a little bit here,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: So I'll agree with the money in that one. With
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: the Tampa Bay side Giants and Bears Giants, I'm not
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: gonna give out a play on this, but I do
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: lean to the Giants in this one, even though the
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: market looks like it's saying Bears right now from three
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: and a half to four and a half. I don't
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: like the spot for the Bears sixty five percent take
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: it seventy three percent of the cash on the Bears
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: for now, But come game time tomorrow, you might see
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: the money start coming back in on the Giants. Here,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: it's a it's not really a high total of forty
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: six and a half, and it's sort of trending downward
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: with money coming in on the under. I think the
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: three and a half maybe was the look ahead on
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: this game, So I don't know the lookhads up right now,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: but usually on pregame the opener listed it was usually
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: actually the look ahead. So the Bears got bumped up
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: a little bit I think for last week. And what
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: did we see the Bears do last week? Yeah, the
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Bears actually looked pretty good, even though it was against Cincinnati.
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: I think people are giving Cincinnati more credit now because
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: their offense looks pretty capable under Joe Flacco. So I
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: think people are actually gonna give the Bears a lot
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: of credit for that win because also because they won
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: forty seven to forty two, and that was crazy. With
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the Bears blowing like a multiple score lead late in
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: the game, Cincinnati made a multiple score comeback took the lead,
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: and then the Bears basically had no shot to come
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: back and win after that, and they still did. And
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: the Bears actually, well, actually they kind of did because
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: they only needed a field goal, but they scored a
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: touchdown on like a sixty something yard pass which covered
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the spread, which they wouldn't have done if they'd kicked
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: a field goal. They would have only won two and
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: not covered the two and a half. So I got
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: the pick right, at least in my pick comes with
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the Bears minus two and a half should have been
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: easier because they were winning the whole game. But I
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: think the Bears are gonna get a lot of credit
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: for that win, beating Cincinnati like that, scoring a ton
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: of points. But I don't think the Bears are this
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: good man. I mean, they caught Dallas in a good spot.
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: That was their first win of the season, and we
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: know Dallas's defense is just horrendous, So I don't give
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: the Bears that much credit for that win. As I
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: pointed out, the Bears absolutely should have lost to the Raiders.
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: Raiders outstated them in the game. Bears blocked a kick
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: at the end of the game as well. It was
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: just ridiculous that the Bears came back and won that one,
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: beating Washington. Washington has just struggled this year, man, And
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: of course they can't stay healthy now either. But and
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: it was a good spot kind of you know, that
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: revenge spot for Caleb Williams against Jaydon Daniels after last year.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: So I don't put that much weight into that. And
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: then the Bears beating New Orleans and Cincinnati. Again, they're
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: not that good. They have no defense right now or
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: ever really, and beating New Orleans obviously is not a
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: big deal except that I gave out a losing play
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: on the Saints in that game. Of course I did,
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: so I do it. I'm gonna continue to say the
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: Bears are not as good as their record looks. Oh
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: and by the way, so they're coming up that really
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: high score performance against Cincinnati. Who do they play next?
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: By the way? Oh yeah, they play the Minnesota Vikings,
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: which is a big divisional matchup. I mean, every one
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: of these teams in the division is separated by like
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: basically one one and a half games. So that's a
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: big game coming up against Minnesota. So I think the
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: Bears might overlook the Giants here. Man, as bad as
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: the Giants have been playing, I know the Giants are
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: owned five on the road, but you don't need the
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Giants to win to get this cover. You need them
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: to just come within the number. Although I know it's
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: kind of a small ish number, but they're getting at
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: least above a field goal here. Giants didn't do well
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: last week against San Francisco. San Francisco is still a
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: pretty solid team. Now the Giants are going out on
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: the road to face Chicago, but they're actually stepping down
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: in class to do so, because look at how much
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: more difficult the giants schedule has been the Chicago's. I mean,
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: look at the Giants some of their losses. Man, yes,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: I know they lost to Dallas or Chicago beat them.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: They lost to Washington where Chicago beat them. So the
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: public might do that transit of property thing like, oh
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: my god, look at all these teams that Chicago beat
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: the Giants. This is so easy, right, But the Giants
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: also played Kansas City the Chargers own. They also lost
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: to New Orleans. By the way, some more transitive shit
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: going on, where the Giants have three common opponents with
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: the Bears, and the Bears are three and zero in
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: those games, so the public will almost certainly be on
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: the Bears for those reasons. But yes, the Giants have
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: played Kansas City, the Chargers, Philadelphia twice already, Denver, and
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: San Francisco and those four games that I just mentioned
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: were their last four games. So the Giants have played
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: a very difficult schedule, especially recently anow they're coming up
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: all those very difficult games. They're actually stepping way down
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: in class to face Chicago. So after the Giants face
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: that gauntlet, this is gonna be an easier game for them,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: I think. Man, So I do like the Giants, plus
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: the points in that game, I think it will be
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a bounce back. I think the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: spot is worse for our Chicago there. So those are
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: my thoughts on that one. All right, Cardinals, Seahawks, this one.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: I do kind of like the Cardinals as we move
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: into the four PM slate. Don't have this on my
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: card here, don't have the Cards on my card, But
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: I do like the Cardinals. I think this is one
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: of the better plays this week, So my stronger leans
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: at least you can kind of tell already that are
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: not plays on my card or the Saints plus the
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: points Giants, I guess, and Cardinals. I would say Saints first,
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: then Cardinals, then Giants, and then I guess Buccaneers and
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: the other ones. I am just really fucked up trying
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: to try to read the rest of the games I've
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: talked about. Seahawks are a seven point favorite here. I
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: think the look Ahead was a six point favorite here
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: for the Seahawks. Eighty percent of the tickets eighty three
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Seahawks for now, but
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see some of the cash start
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: moving towards the Cardinals. I've heard multiple professional opinions on
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals here, and it mostly has to do with
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: fading the Seahawks at the peak of their market value,
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: which I agree is the case. I just have a
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: few hesitations with Arizona here, but this is one of
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: those spots where it is one of those avenging divisional
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: road underdogs here, because you know, Seattle went into Arizona
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: on Thursday night earlier this season and they beat Arizona
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: in a close game. So Arizona is an avenging Divisional
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: road underdog here, so they're getting a lot of points
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: on the road now in a revenge spot against US Seattle.
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: So that does make it a pretty good spot for Arizona.
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: As far as that's concerned. For Seattle, I think I
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: still think they're a bit overrated at six and two. Man,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: I think at some point you're gonna see them regress
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: a little bit. And they're coming off absolutely blasting Washington
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: in primetime on Sunday night, and I think people at
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: this point might actually give Seattle more credit for that.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Then they're gonna give Arizona for beating Dallas on Monday night.
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: And Seattle did this in ridiculous fashion. I mean, they
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: were winning the game thirty eight to seven. Late in
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: the game they won thirty eight to fourteen, and very stupidly.
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: Dan Quinn should be fired for this. Man. He left
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: Jaydon Daniels in the game, and as you saw, he
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: got hurt in a game that was totally out of reach.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: It was a thirty eight to seven game. He was
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: still in the game, he got hit, he bent his
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: elbow in the wrong direction. His non throwing elbow at
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: least has left, I believe, but dislocated elbow, and he's
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: gonna be out for a while now. Man and I
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: had been saying for a while that that was gonna happen,
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: just because there were way too many parallels with Jaydon
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Daniels and Robert Griffin. The third where this gets really
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: really freaky, by the way, because yes, they're both black quarterbacks,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: they both have like a rushing element to their game.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: They were both on Washington, similar style quarterbacks. Now they
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: both get seriously injured. But not only that, but they
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: both got injured in the same stadium. They both got
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: injured on the same yard line in the stadium, and
• 48:12
  Speaker 1: they both got injured against the same opponent, the Seattle Seahawks.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: So how insane is that? Like, is that a coincidence
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: or are we living in a simulation. I mean, it's
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: absolutely insane that every one of those things lined up,
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: and it would have It wouldn't have happened if Dan
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: Quinn just didn't have Jaydon Daniels in the game. Absolutely ridiculous. Yeah,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: the Avengers end game for Arizona here, there's probably some
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: voodoo dolls of RG three and Jaydon Daniels out there,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: but I still think Seattle's in the public ei they're
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: gonna get more credit for scoring almost forty points against
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Washington in a primetime game. And by the way, Seattle
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: might actually overlook Arizona because they did already beat Arizona
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: on the road, and Arizona's at the automn of this division,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: and Seattle does have the Rams up next, and of
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: course the Rams are right there with Seattle, I think
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: also at six and two, So that's a huge game
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: between Seattle and the Rams because those teams are tied
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: in first place right now in the division. So there
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: are a lot of reasons why Seattle might overlook Arizona. Here.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: Arizona's on a little bit of a shorter week because
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: they play on Monday, so that does worry me a
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: little bit, but they did have a bye before that,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: so they are still a bit rested. You could argue
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be in a little bit of a letdown
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: spot though, because beating Dallas is still a pretty big
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: deal in primetime on the road. So that's kind of
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: my one hesitation that I do have with Arizona here.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Everything else seems to line up fairly nicely for Arizona though,
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: and Arizona, by the way, they're getting seven points. Look
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: at their losses this year. They've lost by one, three, one, four,
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: and four, So they have not lost any game by
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: more than four points all seasons. So even though they
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of losses, they've covered this number in
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: every single game this season. They have not lost by
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: more than f points and they're getting seven in this game.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: So another reason to look towards Arizona here. Again, my
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: one hesitation is just that debatably could be in a
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: letdown spot off of Dallas, but otherwise I do like it.
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett, I believe, will continue to be their quarterback,
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: and I think that's better for Arizona. If Kyler Murray
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: came back, I would definitely not want to be on
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Arizona because I think that would throw like a wrench
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: into their team chemistry that they're building here. I actually
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: think he's not even as good as Brissette at this point.
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: As ridiculous as that sounds, I think Brissette might actually
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: be the better quarterback here at this point. He can
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: at least see over his line men because he's taller
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: than Murray. But Brissette, Yeah, I mean, he's a veteran.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: He doesn't turn the ball over that much. He's pretty solid.
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I do like how that linees up for Arizona.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: That is definitely one of the stronger plays for me. Actually,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: maybe even stronger than the Saints, to be honest. So
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: I do like Arizona hasn't made my card though. Lions
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: and Washington this game, man, it's gonna be weird. Top
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and Raven. We'll go back on NDS and we'll talk
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: about They have asked me to come on and talk
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: about sports stuff, so maybe I will. All Right, I'm
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: gonna try to lower my voice a little bit here, man,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: because I was just I don't know why. I just
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: tend to talk very very loud because I get excited here.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: But let's let's go chill here and we'll see if
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: I can do it. Lions and Washington here, man, in
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: this game the Lions, although this seems like it makes
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: it more boring if I talk that way. The Lions
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: are up from a three and a half point favorite
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: to an eight point favorite here, but this is obviously
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: because jayde Daniels is hurt. Okay, So yeah, the Lions
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: are Now they were gonna be a three and a
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. Now they're an eight point favorite. So
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: do I think it's an overreaction? I do, even though
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: I know I said that when when Daniels was hurt before,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: which was like two weeks ago, the line moved like
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: almost the line moved a little bit more than this
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs on that Monday night game, moved like
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: six points, and I thought that was way too much
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: of a move. And yeah, Washington still lost the game
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: and didn't cover, So yeah, I know, it wasn't that
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: good for Washington. Now we're going We've got Marcus Mariota
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: in this game again, and he's also my fantasy quarterback
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: this week with Mahomes on buy, So isn't that just great?
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: But I don't think Mariota is that bad, Like he
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: is a down grade, but I don't think he's that
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: much of a down grade. So I do think this
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: line is still a little bit of an overreaction on
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: the Lions. For that reason. Mariota he's used to playing
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: because Daniels has been hurt multiple times in the last
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: two years. So Mariota, I mean, we know he's also
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: a veteran. He's been around for a while, so he's
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: not gonna be intimidated or anything like that. Hasn't looked
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: good so far this year really though. Mariota Lions are
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: very public nine tickets, ninety three percent of the cash
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: on the Lions, so the money it looks like it's
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: slightly in coming in on the line. But they're a
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: very very public road favorite, and I think of too
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: high a number. So my read would be based on that.
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: I would start leaning to maybe taking the points with Washington,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: but the way that this scheduling spot sets up, I
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: actually think favors the Lions. So we know the Lions
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: just lost last week to Minnesota, and that was one
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: of my players last week on Minnesota that was a win,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: And what I said going into that game was the
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: Lions had a big win over Tampa Bay that went
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: into a bye. I thought that buy was going to
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: disrupt their momentum. And after playing Minnesota, who the Lions
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: had owned over the last few years, they hadn't lost
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: to Minnesota, and I think I don't know multiple games
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: over multiple years, they had this game up next because
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: I think they had this game circled against Washington because
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: you remember what happened last year. Washington came into Detroit
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: in the playoffs and Detroit was the top seed I
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: believe in the NFC in the playoffs, and Washington beat
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: them as a double digit underdog. So you know, the
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: Lions had this game, circle man, because Washington ended their
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: season last year and it was a game the Lions
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: obviously felt they should have won because they were the
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: big favorite and who was this newcomer to come in
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: and beat them, right, So I don't want to fade
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: Detroit in this game for that reason, because I think
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be in a bounce back spot because of
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: that loss last week, and I think part of the
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: reason why they lost it was because they were looking
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: ahead to this game because this game does definitely matter
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: to them. Washington didn't look good either though last week obviously,
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: as I just said, they got absolutely trounced by Seattle.
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: So the public doesn't want anything to do with Washington here.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: And yes, technically they're back in an injured player theory
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: spot again, which is what I was just alluding to,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: the line moved I think too much. Again, you know,
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: the team's probably gonna try to step it up given
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: the Daniels is out against you might see a better
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: effort from Washington for that reason. So a lot of
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: conflicting factors here, man. I mean, line value wise, I
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: do think that taking Washington is the right side, but
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: situation wise, I would say laying the points of the
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: Lions might actually be the right side. I think instead
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: of doing any of that, I think maybe going Lions
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: over their team total mat actually be the right move
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: in this game. I think it's at twenty nine and
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a half and the Lions I believe, have averaged thirty
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: points a game this year, so that might be the
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: better way to do it. Man, Because Washington doesn't have
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: a good defense. You got to expect the Lions are
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: gonna come out focus here and want to drill Washington
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: because Washington beat them last year in that playoff game.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: So maybe Lions over the team total would be the
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: better way to go. Yes, Jacoby Shaddox is the singer
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: of Poppa Roach. Definitely not the only two. There's Jacoby Ellsbury,
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: former outfielder on the Red Sox and the Yankees Boom,
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: and there are definitely more than that. They're not coming
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: to mine right now, but yeah, definitely at least those two.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: The puppa Roach singer, by the way, goes by Kobe
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Dix as well. That's his A stage namory shortens all
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: of it block punt. I didn't see it. You might
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: be able to see it in my background here. Hopefully
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: I don't get nuked from YouTube for illegally, you know,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: rebroadcasting the game. I don't think you can't even see
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: it though, so because the screen is blocking it my
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: screen share all right. Finishing off the four pm slate
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: here or four to twenty five pm here, Rams forty
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: nine ers. This game is hard to get a gauge
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: on because it looks like it looked like the Rams
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: are going to be a three point favorite, and now
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: they're a six point favorite. And I don't know if
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: really that's just based off of last week or not,
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: because why would it have moved that much. Both these
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: teams looked okay last week. They both won last week,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: so I don't know. Man, fifty six percent ticket, sixty
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the Rams. The money's coming
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: in on the Rams now. One situational angle we do
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: have here is the Rams did lose earlier in the
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: season at home to the forty nine Ers, and the
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: Rams are about a nine point favorite in that game
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: because of all the Niners injuries. So the forty nine ers, though,
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: they went in and they were able to beat them
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: out right, man. So this is a little bit of
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: a revenge spot for the Rams, and I think the
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: Rams have been good against the forty nine ers over
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: the past couple of seasons. The Rams have kind of
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: had their number, I'm pretty sure. So some of these
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: things do lead you to maybe look towards the Rams here.
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: But I do I want to lay six points on
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: the road. No, I don't. But if you're forced to
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: have to pick this game, maybe the Rams do make
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: sense because you know the Rams are up on the
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: on the line here a little bit, or excuse me,
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: the Rams are not getting the cash a little bit
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: here in some of the situation looks like it does
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: favor the Rams to some extent. Here. Rams are gonna
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: want a little bit of revenge I think from that loss.
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: But by the way, if if the Rams were a
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: nine point favorite in that game, which I thought that
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: number was too high, the line in this game should
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: probably Even though the Rams really don't get much for
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: home field, they probably get about one and a half,
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: but then you flip through the forty nine ers would
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: probably get about two. So this line should probably be
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit lower than this, although it's still in
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: no man's land. I mean, it should probably be somewhere
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: in like the five range maybe, although I guess this
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: is close to me where it should be. The scheduling
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: spot I think does actually set up a little bit
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: better for the Rams, even though they did have a
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: blowout win last week, so the public might kind of
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: be on them a little bit. The public might also
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: think it's tempting to take the points of the Niners, though,
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: because the Niners did win out right at the Rams,
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: and the public might be saying, hey, the Niners are
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: only a half game behind the Rams here, and you're
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: giving them that many points at home. So the public's
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: not that heavy on the Rams here. They're not gonna
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: put much weight into the Rams beating New Orleans, I
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: don't think, or beating Baltimore without Lamar Jackson or beating
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: Jacksonville really necessarily. But yeah, the Rams, I mean they
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: haven't faced they I mean they haven't faced necessarily that
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: difficult of a schedule, I guess, and some their wins
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: are not great. I mean, their other wins are against Tennessee.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Houston at least has a good deepfense, and then India
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: is at least fairly good, So that was a decent win.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: Rams probably not as good as their record looks though.
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: But the Rams, they're not really traveling that far. They're
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: only going up the coast to northern California. So the
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Rams have actually been back home for a week because
• 59:22
  Speaker 1: they came, well actually for multiple weeks because they were
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: in London I believe they had to buy and then
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: last week they played at home, so they're staying in
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: California in the Pacific time zone. And that is not
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: the case with San Francisco, as San Francisco actually has
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: played two road games in a row and haven't had
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: a buy yet I believe. Yeah, San Francisco's by doesn't
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: come until week fourteen. So San Francisco they actually played
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: four road games in five weeks, and that included at
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: La then at Tampa Bay. Then they came all the
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: way back to the Pacific coast, so two cross country
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: trips there. Then they had to go after playing at
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: lant at home, they had to go back out on
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: the road to Houston and then to the Giants, So
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: another cross country trip, now another one back home. So
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: four cross country trips basically since early to mid October.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: So the Giants, I mean, the forty nine ers have
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: done a lot of traveling, so the travel situation doesn't
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: line up that well. So I guess I will slightly
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: agree with the Rams in that one, but don't really
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: want to make it a play. I mean, I certainly don't.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: Jacoby Meyers, Yeah, that's true. He spells it with an ie,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: which kind of throws me off. Where did Myers go?
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: I forget because the Raiders traded him away, and I
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: forget where he even went. All right, Steelers Chargers is
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of my plays, So I'll leave that
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: alone for now, and then Monday Night. As you guys
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: know already because you've been following me, I do lean
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: to the Packers on Monday Night, but as of now,
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be disagreeing with that. Now, the
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Packers were a three point favorite on the look Ahead,
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: and I think because of what happened last week, the
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: line came out closer to like two with the Packers.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: But all ready it looks like it's a pick them.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: So for now, it looks like the money is coming
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: in the Eagles, even though they're public seventy six percent
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: of tickets eighty five percent of the cash on the Eagles.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: But by the time it gets to Monday, I mean,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: you might see this market shift around and you might
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: actually see the market read start reflecting the Packers here,
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: which I think might be the case. So I'm there's
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: definitely the potential I'm gonna give out the Packers as
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: a play. I'm not gonna do it yet, but I
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: do think the situation does set up for the Packers
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: here now Philadelphia, they're coming out of a buy. But
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: they went into that buy in a good note. I mean,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: they beat Minnesota and then got their revenge against division
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: rival Giants before going into the buy. So I think
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: that buy came in a bad time for the Eagles.
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: They didn't really need it, and that could stop their
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: momentum a little bit. Like I said, you don't really
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: want to go into the buy on a wind streak
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: because it can slow down your momentum a little bit. Yeah,
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: they'll get up for this game because it's Monday night
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: at lambeau Field, But I think the game is gonna
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: mean a little It's gonna mean a little bit more
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: to the Packers, and the backers are coming off that
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: loss man to Carolina last week, and I know it
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: ended a win streak for them, But I think ending
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: win streak is a little bit different in football. I mean,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: I think when it's your first loss of the season,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: it can hang you over a little bit. But green
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Bay already did have another loss this season, and green
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: Bay has been good against good competition this year. Man,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: it's just that green Bay they haven't done like they've
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: taken their losses in games where they've been a big favorite,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: like games were a big favorite. Those are the games
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: that they lose, right. Like I pointed that out last
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: week as part of my Carolina handicap. I said the
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: games were green Bay was a big favorite where Cleveland, Dallas, Cincinnati, Arizona,
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: and Carolina and green Bay failed to cover every single
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: one of those games, and both losses came in those games.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: But games where green Bay has been facing better teams
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: for the most part, although really that was just kind
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: of Detroit and Pittsburgh and Washington back when they still
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: had Jen Daniels, where green Bay was lined as like
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: a smaller favorite in those games. Green Bay did well
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: in those games. So in this price range, green Bay
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: has won and covered every single one of the games
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: where they've been priced like this, So that's a good
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: sign the green Bay does step it up in bigger games.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: They're coming off that loss to Carolina, where again I
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: pointed out green Bay still outgained Carolina about over one
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: hundred yards in that game, so it wasn't as bad
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: as it looked like on the scoreboard, and it's still embarrassing.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: Everybody's gonna be making fun of green Bay for losing
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: to Carolina. I think people were gonna be a little
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: bit off the green Bay train after they lost to Carolina.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: People are gonna want Philly instead. Between these two teams
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: that they perceive as both decent teams that they perceived
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: Philly as better. Philly are the super Bowl champs, you
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: know from last year. But the other thing about green Bay,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: of course, is that Philadelphia knocked green Bay out of
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: the playoffs last year. So green Bay gets a chance
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: at playoff revenge here and that is big. You remember
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: the team that ended your season last year, man, green
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Bay played okay in that game they fell short. I
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: think I might have given up Philly minus the points
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: because the public was actually on green Bay in that game.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: I think as an underdog last year at Philly, the
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: public was not really respecting Philly, but now it's a
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: little bit different, and now the public is disrespecting green Bay.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: By the way, it's one of those situations where the
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: public was all over green Bay last week because they're
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: facing Carolina, and now this week the public is basically
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: off of them. So that's another signal that you want
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: to look to fade the public, because when the public
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: completely jumps ship and goes to the other side, you
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: want to fade that sentiment because that's like a knee
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: jerk reaction. It's an overreaction to one game. So I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: do like that as well, and I think the revenge
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: factor is big here. Green Bay is gonna want that revenge.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: They're gonna want to beat Philadelphia. So definitely a strong
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: lean for me to the Packers. Will I give it
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: out as a play, I'm not entirely sure yet. I
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: think I will, but I mean the line's probably only
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: gonna wind up like in the one one and a
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: half range, probably, so you'll still basically be able to
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: play the Packers to just win the game. Jacoby Myers
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: went to the Jags. Yeah, so that'll help with those
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: Jags wide receiver injuries there, all right, first play up.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: You know what it's gonna be. Man, it's the Miami
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: Dolphins plus the nine and a half. I know you
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: guys love this one. You gotta love it. Bills very public.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Eighty five percent of the cash, only eighty four percent
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: of the tickets. You might still think I'm a mad man,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: which I am. I'm a crazy person. Why the hell
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: would I want to take the Dolphins against the Bills. Well,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: first of all, I think you're getting value on the
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: Dolphins because nobody wants anything to do with the Dolphins,
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: so the books have to skew the number towards the
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: Bills a little bit. That's why fading the public works
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: more often than it doesn't generally, because the public side
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: is usually gonna be the side that is overvalued, and
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: that's the Bills. Here you can see the publics all
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: over them, probably the most public team of the week, actually,
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: well except for Detroit, I guess, which is why I
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: don't want to lay the points with Detroit. Less of
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: the cash coming in on the Bills, so it looks
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: like some of the money is indicating on the Miami side. Here.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: The crux of this, though, is that I think the
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: Bills are in a huge letdown spot. I mean, we
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: saw what they did last week. It wasn't a primetime game,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: but it kind of felt like it because it was
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: one of those games in that four PM slate last
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: week where there weren't really any other big games on.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was the game that lasted later,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: because I think it was one of the ones that
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: was slightly scheduled later or scheduled slightly later. That was
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: a huge game for Buffalo, dude. They beat Kansas City.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: You know, Kansas City was the team and eliminated Buffalo
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: from the playoffs. This seems to happen every year. Kansas
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: City eliminates Buffalo from the playoffs and then Buffalo beats
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: them during the regular season. But that is still a
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: huge win, man. Buffalo got that win against Kansas City,
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: huge win. Now they're gonna go face Miami again and
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: they already beat Miami by double digits at home, and
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: I know Miami actually covered the number in that game
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: on a Thursday night game. I think it was like
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: an eleven and a half twelve and a half points
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: spread there Miami covered the number. Now we're shifting to
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: Miami and the line is nine and a half, and
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: you probably don't even have to play this now. Actually
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: you could wait and see if it gets to ten.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know if it will, because ten is definitely
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: a really key number. But I think there's no reason
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: to play it now because if you wait, it's probably
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: still gonna be nine to nine and a half at worse.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: So I would wait and see if you get the ten,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: because it is a key number. But I think this
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: line is a little bit too high based on what
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: it was. I think it was too high in that
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: game at Buffalo as well, being eleven and a half
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: or whatever. I think it probably should have been a
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: little bit less than that. So I think the line
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: here probably should be maybe more, maybe closer to seven
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: and a half or so here, although I know some
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: dead numbers above seven and a half there. But also
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: I think part of the reason why it's nine and
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: a half is because it's a teaser killer, Like the
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: books want to make sure that you can't do the
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: long teaser and tease a number that's above seven all
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: the way down to below three, So the books might
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: do that. They might actually get the Lions up to
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: nine for that reason too, because they think the Lions
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: actually make a very good teaser this week, because I
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: think the Lions are absolutely going to show up and
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: at least try to win that game because this is
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: a revenge game for them, So I don't see the
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: Lions losing that one. So I think a te like
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: Lions do make a good teaser leg right now, you
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: can get it down from eight to two. That is
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: definitely a good teaser leg. I don't know what I
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: would pair it with though, as far as one of
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: the other teasers, and that one seems very good crossing
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: the numbers of US seven and three there. The other
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: one is still kind of up in the air though.
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: As far as what I would do if I wanted
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: to play a teaser like, what would be the other
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: leg here? I don't know. Man, It's actually a difficult
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: decision because usually I'd look to take maybe an underdog
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: like up, like maybe maybe take the Jets up, because
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: do you really think the Browns can beat the Jets
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: by like over eight and a half points or something.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Man made a very low total game,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: as ugly as that seems. Maybe that's the teaser played there.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know, man, if there is one or tied
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: into something next week. But anyway back to Buffalo here.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: Buffalo also has Tampa Bay next week and that's I
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: think still a big game because it's Baker Mayfield and
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen's still kind of like the MVP race type
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: of thing there. So yeah, I think it's a bad
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: spot for Buffalo, and I think the spot's a little
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: bit better for Miami as Miami has extra time off
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: because they played on Thursday. People saw them look really
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: bad against Baltimore on Thursday than they scored six points,
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: and now Miami has extra rest off of that, which
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: I think is helpful. When you have extra rest and
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: you didn't play well, that's gonna help you out a
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: little bit. And you know, Miami, even though they're dead
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: this year, you gotta think that a game that Miami
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: is going to show up for, Like, if there's any
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: game they're gonna show up for in the remainder of
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: the season, it's gonna be a home game against the
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. I mean, the Bills are still the team
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: to beat in the division. You gotta think Miami is
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: still gonna show up for that one. I think Miami's
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: also lost i think three games in a row at
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: least to Buffalo, so it's a big game from Miami.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at this Miami game against the Ravens. By
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: the way, the Ravens weren't really as good as it
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: looked like on the scoreboard. The Ravens only outgained Miami
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: by six yards, so it was actually close game statistically,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: and basically one of the main reasons why Miami lost
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: the way they did is because they had three turnovers,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: So that's like that makes it a little bit of
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: a misleading result there. I think if Miami can clean
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: that up, they can actually play close in this game.
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Buffalo having to go to Miami is always kind of
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: a weird spot. Really, I don't know. It seems like
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: Miami does tend to play them fairly well in Miami.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be almost ninety degrees at this game, so
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: I think that also is not good for Buffalo because
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: they're kind of a coldish weather team. Having to play
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: in heat like this even though it's in November, it's
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: eighty eight degrees at game time, is what it's supposed
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: to be. Miami might be able to steam Buffalo out
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit. Miami should wear white uniforms and forced
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: Buffalo and I have to wear dark uniforms. And it's
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: in the middle of the day, so the sun's gonna
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: be bearing down as well, So that might be a
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: little bit of an added edge they're built into Miami
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: that people might not talk about. And then what else
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: was I gonna say? I mean, that was most of it.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: I think, Oh yes, and Mike McDaniels is still coaching Miami.
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: Here is it McDaniels or McDaniel, I forget. I mean,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: he's an idiot. He's gonna get fired. He's not good.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: But obviously he's on the hot seat here. And he
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: did the same thing that John Harbaugh did with the
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: Ravens when the Ravens are coming out of the bye
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: Harbaugh took like all their entertainment away in the locker room,
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: like he took all their video games and shit away.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: McDaniel has done the same thing with Miami this week.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: Like I don't I forget what game it was that
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: he took away from them. It was some hilarious sounding
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: game that he took away from them. But McDaniel, he's
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: getting serious, man, and it worked out. You remember, I
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: gave out the Ravens as that as the play after
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: they did that coming out of the bye, because that's
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: an indicator that the coach is really like getting his
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: players focused on the game, Like he's removing distractions from
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: the locker room, saying, you guys got to focus here, man. Like,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: I think the funning games is those are good when
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: the team's playing well because it adds like team chemistry
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: and stuff. But when the team is playing poorly, you
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: gotta shake something up. You gotta start drilling your players
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: a bit. So I think this is a good thing
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: that McDaniels has taking away some of their entertainment. So
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Miami BLUs the points in that game, man, I like
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: that one. It is definitely human in Florida as well.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know about this time of year, but probably
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: still it's just always humid there. I've been in Florida
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 1: in the summer and it's real bad. But I'm a
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: new Englander, so I can't even like, I can't, dude,
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: I deal with the cold real well. I deal. I
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: don't deal with heat. It just it sucks. I've been
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: I've been down to Miami in like January two though,
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: and it's a lot better in January, a lot nicer.
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: All right, Next play up. Usually I don't do this,
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: but I'm gonna lay a road favorite here with the
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens. Minus four, I think is the best you
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: can get if you want to play money line. It's
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit crazy with like a minus two
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: hundred or so. I mean, you could maybe parlay that
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: money line something else if you really want to, But
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: I think the Ravens are gonna get this thing done.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: The Ravens are still a below five hundred team, so
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: I think the public is still gonna look at this
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: number and be like, I can't lay like points like
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: this with a three to five raven team on the road,
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: you know, and the Ravens. The public is still I
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: don't think gonna be that impressed with the Ravens with
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: what they've done coming out of the by. They beat
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: Chicago and then they beat Miami last week, and it
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: was kind of an ugly game, and Miami's ugly, so
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: I don't think the public is gonna really put that
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: much weight into Baltimore yet. But I still think Baltimore
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: is like a sleeping giant right now. Man, Like, I
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: still think Baltimore is gonna win their division. Of course,
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: they were my pick to win the Super Bowl to
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: start the year, and their defense was really struggling at
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 1: the beginning of the year. But Baltimore also has faced
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: a very difficult schedule. I mean, they have lost this
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: to Buffalo, Detroit, Kansas City, the Rams Houston, and the
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: Rams in Houston were without Lamar Jackson because he went
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: down in the Kansas City game. So been a difficult
• 1:13:59
  Speaker 1: schedule and they don't have any bad losses really, so
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: that is something to look at with Baltimore. I think Baltimore,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: in the situation that they're in right now, I think
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: they're one of the best teams in football. And by
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: the way, last week was actually the reverse injured player
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: spot that I talked about. Lamar Jackson came back last week,
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: and usually there can be a little bit of a
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: chemistry concern there. You know, he can kind of be slow,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: like your star player can kind of be slow to
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: ramp back up to speed. You know, so usually that game,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: usually want to look to go against that team. And
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: that was the only Thursday Night game I've gotten wrong
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: all year on the show. I didn't give it out
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: as a play but luckily, but usually the team, you know,
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: can start a little bit slow, and they actually weren't
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: that good offensively in the game. But I think, you know,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: it takes like a game or two to get your
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: bearings again. So I think in the second game, with
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: your star player back with Lamar Jackson, you're gonna be
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: a lot better than you were in that first game.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: They've had extra time to do something here because they
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: played on Thursday. I think that won't stop the momentum
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: having the extra time off because I think I think
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: they realize they didn't play that well in that Miami
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: game and they can't take their foot off the gas
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: right now. Man Baltimore, they got to catch up in
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: their divisions, so they got to win all these games.
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: Even though usually I would say a road out of
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: conference game, you don't want to look to play on
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: the team it's a road out of conference favorite because
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: usually they're gonna overlook that game because it's one of
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: the games that means the least on their schedule, but
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: Baltimore needs ever win they can get right now, man
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: to try to get back in this because right now,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: like they're not focused on time breakers, they're focused on
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: winning fucking games. So that's what they got to do here.
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: It's the second game with Jackson back, which I think
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: is gonna be helpful to them as well. Baltimore. Their
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: defense has actually started to play better recently too, although
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: I know they've started to face worse offenses, but Minnesota
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: is also not a very good offense. I know Minnesota
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: looked pretty good last week, but you remember I gave
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: out Minnesota in that game against Detroit because I thought
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: it was a bad spot for Detroit, which I already
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: talked about the show earlier when I talked about Detroit,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: and you can go back and watch that again or
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: watch my analysis from last week. But Detroit, they I
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: think they were coming out of a bye, was that right,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: I forget, Yeah, they were coming out of a bye
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: that I think stopped their momentum a little bit, and
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: they had Washington up next, so it was a sandwich
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: spot for Detroit Minnesota. I know it was kind of
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: a reverse injured player spot because they did get McCarthy back,
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: but Wentz was hurt due so they had to go
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: back to McCarthy, and you knew McCarthy was gonna be
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: a bit of an upgrade from Wentz, who was just
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: playing injured. So it just had to be that way,
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: and they got the job done. But now everybody's like
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: hyping McCarthy. Oh my god, McCarthy's so good. He beat
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: Detroit on the road and Sam darnelld couldn't do that,
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: which is true, he couldn't, and Detroit had beaten Minnesota
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: a bunch of times in a row. But that's why
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 1: I want to fade Minnesota here, man, because Minnesota wasn't
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: really as good as it looked like in this game,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: which I haven't dug into the box score yet on
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: the show. But Detroit outgained Minnesota by almost fifty yards,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: which isn't a lot, but still Minnesota didn't actually play
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: that well in this game. They played well enough to
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: cover and they won the game outright, which I'm happy
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: for because that was one of my plays last week.
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: But now you've got Minnesota looking better than they actually are.
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Beating Detroit is a huge game from Minnesota. Now I
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be the team that overlooks an out
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: of conference opponent with Baltimore being below five hundred, even
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: though we know Baltimore's good. But and I think people
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 1: are gonna think, hey, if Minnesota beat Detroit and Detroit
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: beat Baltimore, then how could we possibly lay points with Baltimore? Right?
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: So I think the public might actually do that transitive
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: thing here too, because we saw Detroit beat Baltimore with
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson on Monday night, So how could you possibly
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: lay points with Baltimore here? Right? Like, it doesn't look
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: like the public's gonna want to do it, but that's
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: why I want to do it. And Minnesota after they
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: played Baltimore here, oh yeah, they have Chicago and then
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: green Bay. So this is a divisional sandwich here where
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: they're playing all of their divisional opponents surrounding this game.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: So I think this is the game that Minnesota overlooks
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: man and they take a step back. Baltimore is the
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: better team, even though the record doesn't look like it.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: They're so much the better team that they're laying four
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: points on the road here. I like it lay the
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: points of the Ravens. I think it's a sandwich spot
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: that Minnesota is in here. As ridiculous as that might sound,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: let's do it. There we go, Ravens, Yeah, Florida is
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: bad in the summer. For sure, you parlay them. I mean,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: I recommend against parlane because one one loss takes down
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: the entire parlaning books want you to parlay. That's why
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: they advertise so much, because they never give you good
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 1: enough odds. So me, knowing that I don't have an
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: edge on parlays, I can't do it. Although doing it,
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: you know, for fun and whatever, fine, but you just
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: gotta understand that it's more entertainment and that you're not
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be able to beat it long term. Really, Sam Houston,
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: are they gonna win the game? They're up four? It
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: looks like here they have the football, they're celebrating. It's
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be their first win of the season. I think,
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: oh wait, what am I looking at here? No, that's
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: Oregon State celebrating. What just happened? Oht know, Oregon State
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: got a first down? I think, what are we? What
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 1: are you talking about? Justin Oregon State has the football?
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: I was looking I just saw orange. That was Oregon
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 1: State celebrating. But they have to get a touchdown. This
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: is gonna be an interesting end of this game here,
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 1: so you might get my live and commentary while I
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: do this, But I have to give out my last
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: play too, which is gonna be on the Chargers minus
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 1: two and a half. And I found this at minus
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 1: one eleven. I didn't see it at minus one ten anywhere.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: It's at three reduced juice at some places now, But
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: I think I would lay minus two and a half
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 1: up to like maybe minus one fifteen. If not, then
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: maybe lay the three. But of course three is a
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: key number, so you want to try to get it
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: below the three. You could maybe they're going for the
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: end zone here. Man Oregon State is sam Uston. This
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a huge game for them if they
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: get the win, though, because they don't have to win
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: this season, although they actually had ten wins last season.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know why sam Houston changed in their offenses
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: yearn oh, he maybe could have caught that anyway. Chargers
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: with the line get the best line that you can.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: You could play money line on this too if you
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 1: want to. But I like the spot for the Chargers here,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: and I don't like the spot for the Steelers two
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 1: dollars on tonight would have paid over three thousand. You
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: don't care about two dollars, I guess, but I mean
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: it's still it's still uh, you should get better odds
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: than that. It should pay you even more than that.
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: So like, yeah, like long, long term, it's still gonna
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: be a loser. Although like I'm not gonna knock you
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: for paying two bucks for it per like for my
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: like autism, I can't do it though, because I'm like
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: I always need an edge. What happened? There was a
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: turnover in this game, But I thought you said they
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: couldn't kneeled. Oregon State only is one time out left,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: so why why did Sam used to not kneel? Or
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: were they not able to? I don't know, man, this
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: is gonna be a crazy ending. Holy crap. I don't know.
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: I don't know what down it is right now. But Chargers, Yes,
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: let me try to talk about the Chargers. The money's
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: coming in on the Chargers, fifty one percent of tickets
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: on the Steelers. Everybody's I think overvaluing the Steelers right now, man,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: and overlooking the Chargers as usual because people don't like this.
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh offense where he plays like kind of a
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 1: possession style, though he's not really doing that as much
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: this year. He's unleashing Herbert a bit more because Herbert
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: was hurt the prior like two seasons, so now he's healthier.
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: But fifty nine percent of the cash on the Chargers,
• 1:21:42
  Speaker 1: they are headed towards three. Here. It looks like the
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: look ahead on this game had Chargers four and a
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: half and then just because of last week, the line
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: came out like Chargers two and a half. So you're
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: getting a little bit of value on the Chargers. So
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: the line actually overreacted based on last week's results because
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: it was gonna be Charged four and a half here.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: And of course we know what the Steelers did last week.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: They beat Indianapolis, and I already told you why they
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: beat Indianapolis. I mean, Indianapolis outgained them in this game
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: by over one hundred yards in the game, so Indianapolis
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: dominated the game statistically. They had more first downs, more
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: time of possession slightly, but Indy lost this game because
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: they were minus five and turnovers. It looks like that
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: is at the end of it. Yeah, Sam Houston hangs
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 1: on for a win. Man that's crazy able to get
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: the win as the underdog there. I don't know how
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: big of an underdog they were where Sam Houston would
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: win there. But anyway, Yes, the Colts had six turnovers
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: as I already mentioned, minus five and turnovers. I mean,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: that was the game that Pittsburgh looked better than they
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 1: actually wore. And that was a huge win for Pittsburgh
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 1: man beating the team that was like a top the
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 1: AFC there. Now what does Pittsburgh have to do? They
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: have to go out on the road to the Pacific
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: Coast for the first time this season. Pittsburgh is not
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: played further west than Cincinnati all all seasons so far.
• 1:23:01
  Speaker 1: So now they have to go out to the Pacific Coast.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: They have to change time zones and all the way out.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: Not only all the way after the Pacific Coast and
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: changing time zones, but for a late night game at
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: eight to twenty pm Eastern times, that's gonna be I
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 1: talk about this the biological clock shift. People always talk
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 1: about the West coast team having played the early East
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 1: coast time. That's not the worst spot. The worst biological
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: spot is the East Eastern times on team going all
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: the way west because the game doesn't end until like
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: midnight their time sometimes or whatever, so they can really
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 1: be getting fatigued at the end of the day based
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 1: on their biological clock. So it is a pretty bad
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 1: spot for that reason as well. Oh in Pittsburgh, by
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: the way, who do they have after the Chargers? Or
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 1: they might overlook the Chargers a little bit because the
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: Chargers have been kind of mediocre. Even though they are
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 1: six and three. I still think the Chargers under the
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 1: raidar a little bit big win over Indian. Who does
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh play next Cincinnati, even though Cincinnati is down right
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: now because they don't have Joe Burrow. That's a big
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: divisional game and it's a revenge game and Pittsburgh needs
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: to hold serve in the conference, man, So they do
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: need to beat Cincinnati to make sure Cincinnati doesn't start
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 1: catching up to them. And Pittsburgh already lost at Cincinnati
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: in that big primetime game, So that's not that's a
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: look ahead spot I think for Pittsburgh here, man, I
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: think it's a bit of a sandwich spot because I
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be looking ahead to that game. They
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: want revenge against Cincinnati. It'll be Rogers versus Flacco Part two.
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't like the spot at all here.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: And Pittsburgh has played a bunch of like big games
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 1: in a row man. They played Thursday night primetime against
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati in Week seven, and then in Week eight they
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: had the primetime Aaron Rodgers Bowl Sunday night against Green Bay.
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: Then they had a big game last week even though
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: it wasn't a primetime game against Indy. Now it's another
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: primetime game against the Chargers that takes its toll as well. Man,
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: So yeah, it's a bad spot for Pittsburgh. And as
• 1:24:59
  Speaker 1: far as the Chargers are concerned, they're under the radar
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: right now, and they haven't had to travel that much
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 1: over the last few weeks. They were actually at home
• 1:25:06
  Speaker 1: for two straight games. They righted the ship, and then
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 1: they only had to make one travel spot out to
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: Tennessee last week, and they didn't look good in the game.
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: They only beat Tennessee by seven. So I think the
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: public is kind of off the Charger train right now
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: because they don't care about the Chargers beating Miami barely
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 1: back in Week six. That doesn't look very good for
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: the Chargers losing to Indianapolis. Oh, by the way, ding
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: ding ding. The public's gonna see that, I think, and think, hey,
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh beat Indy, who beat the Chargers, So of course
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is gonna at least cover this number against the Chargers, right,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: That's what the public is gonna think. But again, you
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: shouldn't handicap that way. I mean, every game is in
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: an individual situation. And the Chargers were better statistically in
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 1: that game against India than it looks like on the score.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: But I mean you can see here Herbert threw for
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: four to twenty in the game, so it was a
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: better game for the Chargers to look like on the scoreboard.
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 1: So again, that kind of puts me looking for that
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: has to be looking towards the Chargers as well. But yeah,
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. Then they beat Minnesota with an injured Carson Wentz.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: Nobody's gonna put that much stock into the Chargers doing that,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 1: and then nobody cares about them beating Tennessee and not
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 1: even covering if anything, that's gonna make the public not
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 1: like the Chargers as much, but I do. They're coming
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: back home. The spot is a lot worse in my
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 1: opinion for Pittsburgh, and I think the Chargers are the
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: better team and the Chargers they don't get much for
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: home field. They probably will get about two points at
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: most for home field, maybe one and a half. So
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: the Oswegers are telling you the Chargers are actually the
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 1: slightly better team here. I agree with it, and it's
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 1: a better spot for them. Lay it with the Chargers.
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 1: You can probably still find it a minus two and
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: a half at like slightly juiced, like up to minus
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: one fifteen. But I mean I'm probably okay with laying
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: the three as well. Yep, Sam Houston won. It was
• 1:26:58
  Speaker 1: twenty and a half points. Yeah, I mean that's even
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 1: though Sam Houston bad team, and twenty and a half
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 1: is too high. I mean, Oregon State's still pretty bad
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 1: as well. So yeah, I think that spread was a
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: bit too high. I didn't talk about that on my show.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: But that's gonna do it, man. So hopefully we get
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 1: some wins. Hopefully you guys like these plays. I gotta
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: try to get some sleep. I gotta get some more
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: water too. Again, Miami plus the nine and a half,
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: but I said wait on that to see if Ten's
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: show up. I don't know if they will, but I
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: like that one. Baltimore minus the points and chargers minus
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 1: the two and a half, you might have to lay
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: three two and a half again. I would probably do
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: it up to about minus one fifteen because you get
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 1: on the better side of the three. I saw it
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 1: at minus one eleven at one of the books. That's
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 1: slow to react in Massachusetts. So that's what we're going with, Charles.
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 1: Thank you, sir. We need to get back on track
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: after two losing days a little. Today was not that bad,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 1: a slight losing day, although it pissed me off still,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: Yesterday was a lot worse. Let's bounce back. Let's get
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: back on the winning track. Let's do it and learn
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: a tone on Twitter, learn it tone on Instagram. I'll
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: like it. Subscribe here to the YouTube channel, leave a
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 1: good comment. It all helps me out here. Man, we're
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 1: on audio as well. Give me a good review over
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: on Spotify and Apple. That helps me out. Listening on
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: audio helps me out as well. I have a yuke
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: channel here on YouTube covered in yukes. You can check
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: that out for yuke covers and Pagreon dot com, slash
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: learn it toad and you get bonus content. There's a
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: yuke Spotify feed and yuke requests and I gotta think
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: about more bonus content to give to people to get
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: their money's worse, so I gotta think about what what
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 1: I can add. But I need to get my voice
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: back too, so I gotta stop doing these shows. And dude,
• 1:28:43
  Speaker 1: I just like my instinct is just talk loud. I
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: don't know what to do. I'm Italian and I talk
• 1:28:48
  Speaker 1: with my hands about a ban, about a boom. I mean,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: that's just what we do. I don't know what else
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: to do. I don't know. Maybe I should put my
• 1:28:56
  Speaker 1: headphones back on and have myself loud, like in my
• 1:28:59
  Speaker 1: own ears. That would probably have me not talking as loudly.
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys for hanging out. Let's get some Winstrom. I'll
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 1: be back in the morning because I know there's gonna
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: be some probably college basketball, usually light college basketball on Sunday,
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: and then there'll be some NBA and NHL, probably light
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: on all three of those. But we'll see Italian Toad.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's better than Boston Toad, but
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: they're both kind of the same thing. A lot of
• 1:29:24
  Speaker 1: Italians in Boston in the North End. Kid, that's that's
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 1: just that's the way that it is, all right, it's late, guys,
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: Peace for now,