Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Liam Hehir: Political Commentator on the general election being set for November 7th

Transcript

Liam Hehir: Political Commentator on the general election being set for November 7th · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The elections coming November seventh. Of course Whins will refuse
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: to go into negotiations until the final official count lands.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: He's always done that. So anyway, by that stage, once
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: we finally get into some negotiation with something, we're going
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: to be close to Christmas, if not the new year,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: before we know who's going to lead the country for
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: the next three years. So Liam here is a political
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: commentator and joins me. Now, Liam, long time, no speak?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: How are you? Good morning?
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: I'm very well, good morning to you.
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  Speaker 1: So first up this this date. I said yesterday the
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: government just wants to wait for as many green shoots
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: as possible. Would you say that's the case.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: That's exactly right. It's been the strategy the whole time.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: You know, it's been a rough couple of years, and
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  Speaker 2: I can tell you, as someone who's got a business
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: of myself, that it has been very difficult. Things are
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: turning it around. There has been a turning of the corner,
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: and unemployments predicted to a sort of checking down. So
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping that if they hear as much time as
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: possible that people will start to feel more and more confident.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: So it's about of weight as it can be according
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: to you know, recent precedent. We're much more use to
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: October elections in New Zealand, recent vintage. But they want
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  Speaker 2: to buy as much time as possible for the economy
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  Speaker 2: to improve as much as possible.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, But at the same time we keep on
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  Speaker 1: hearing that we will get election fatigue and then that
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  Speaker 1: turns voters off and then people can be bothered because
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: they've had enough of it by the time we get
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: to November the seventh.
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  Speaker 2: There's always a risk, and the risk is that if
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: things don't improve, or if the government becomes more unpopular,
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: there's more time for that popularity or a road. So
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's there's no such thing as a sure
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  Speaker 2: bet in Baltics, and they are taking a big bet
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: on the economy improving and that being the main thing,
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: the main driver of voters.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: And we got somebody from Labour at the bump and
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  Speaker 1: going oh over this next election, you're going to hear
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  Speaker 1: a lot of disagreements between the coalition parties and I'm thinking, well,
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  Speaker 1: of course you because this is the period of time
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  Speaker 1: where they differentiate them differentiate themselves from each other.
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  Speaker 2: Well, what's been really interesting is that you haven't seen
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  Speaker 2: the minor party collapse that you normally see from a
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  Speaker 2: coalition government or any type of government. Are the MMP
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  Speaker 2: and that is because the wister Peters and David sea
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  Speaker 2: Wall have been differentiating themselves constantly throughout the last two
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  Speaker 2: and a half years. It's been very difficult for Christopher
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  Speaker 2: Luxan and it's one of the reasons why National hasn't
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  Speaker 2: sort of had the big bounce that governments normally have
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  Speaker 2: at the end of their first term. It's because they
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  Speaker 2: have Lutson and David c Will have figured out that
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  Speaker 2: the way to continue to maintain their party support while
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: government is to be as difficult as possible, to be
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: continued to be bad boys. And I think that this
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: is the first election where the minor parties of the
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  Speaker 2: coalition are going in Losten pretty strong, so if that's true,
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: But it's been happening more already.
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  Speaker 1: And Labor, I mean, what's going to happen with Labor?
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  Speaker 1: I mean they don't want to work with to Pattimali.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: They actually want to destroy to Palti Mari and when
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  Speaker 1: all the seats they do want to work with the Greens,
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  Speaker 1: But in that case will they ever be able to
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: get enough seats.
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  Speaker 2: This is this is the big thing for National ifal
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  Speaker 2: TPM quite politically toxic to the most of the voting population,
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  Speaker 2: but quite popular with the hardcore of the left, and
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  Speaker 2: that is a classic what we thought would call a
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: wedge in politics. And if National can tie Labour's fate
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: to that TPM, that is a potential big driver of
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  Speaker 2: votes for National And the same way that the then
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  Speaker 2: unpopularity of the Greens that's changed since been two thousand
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  Speaker 2: and two. The Greens are quite unpopular in the United
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: Future was able to ride that about sort of a big,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: big bump in the polls. If National can in the
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: same way from time Labor to TPM, that's the type
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  Speaker 2: of thing that might drive Centrius photos to National on
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  Speaker 2: the basis that is there any way to keep TPM
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  Speaker 2: out of government. So it's a big it's a big
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: f about this election.
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  Speaker 1: Oh lots of and that's what makes elections fascinating them.
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  Speaker 1: Thank you so much for your time today. That's them
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: here Political Commentator.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: For more from earlier edition with Ryan Bridge, listen live
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: to News Talks it'd be from five am weekdays, or
• 4:35
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