Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 10 - 3/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 10 - 3/27/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 10 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:25
Betting Podcast Powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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week. We are now 24 hours away from
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MLB Opening Day as well as talk about bearing the lead March
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Madness, the return here of the madness going to the Sweet 16.
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But more importantly, because we have a lot to get to today it is
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win total Wednesday. So with MLB starting tomorrow, I
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have a final portfolio for you guys.
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If you want to join me on some futures bets, I'm going to talk
0:58
about three win totals that I've gotten down on, as well as two
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bets here to win their division and American League Rookie of
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the Year. I got to play here as well.
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So we're going to go through it all, get ready and excited for
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opening day for tomorrow, and then again, a lot to get to
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today. I have a six pack overall of
1:15
sweats. I got three NBA bets for you.
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I got two NHL bets as well as a bet on the NIT championship or
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actually the CBI. Get all these confused,
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CBINITCIT, whatever it may be. The CBI, whatever that Seattle
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high point game is, I have a play on that game as well.
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So a lot to get to on episode 10 of the All Systems Go pod.
1:34
But more importantly guys, I buried the lead we got after it
1:37
last night. Talk about a fantastic night on
1:40
the pod 5 and 1 + 2.84 units. You love to see it after it was
1:45
a rough Monday where nothing went our way.
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We went O and three. You got to keep grinding, stick
1:49
with it and just, you know, stick with the same mentality.
1:52
Disciplined, fearless approach. Again, if it's a system match,
1:55
if it's a sharp out, we're going to take it regardless of if we
1:57
had a oh and three day or three and O day.
1:59
But it was great to see last night, our hard work pay off in
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a very big way, a bigly way I must add.
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I'm looking at our plays toward, or for yesterday at least, had a
2:09
great hit there in the Indiana State game.
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I was watching that game and I I I learned to love this kid.
2:14
Avila, Robbie Avila, because he was fantastic shooting the three
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and pacing us to a win. But actually Indiana State got
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down at one point. You got see see you see where
2:23
they close guys they closed at -5 1/2.
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I mean we money line them when they were at -3 1/2.
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So great hit there -175 they ended up winning by 4.
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Again you got an early 3 1/2 or better.
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You covered a late number, you lose.
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But that's why we money line short favorite.
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So it's great to see Indiana State come through with a big
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win over Cincy. Then of course great night in
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the NBA, Dallas and Sacramento, we got the under 233 on that
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one. Also got the under in the Miami
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Golden State game 217 1/2 in the NHL.
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Got the Predators and boy was that a sweat cause Predators got
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down I think 3 nothing and then four to one came back, stormed
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their way back and won in overtime.
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So thank you to Roman Yossi and that it was going to lead into a
3:03
play here for tonight. Fading teams on the second leg
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go back-to-back. We got another match here for
3:07
tonight and then Wyatt Johnston capping off the night he had.
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We had over 2 1/2 shots on goal. Wyatt Johnson finished with
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three shots on goal. So overall guys A5 and one night
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plus 2.84 units. You love to see it and again,
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when you're grinding, when you're struggling, when you're
3:23
going through hell, keep going. That's what Winston Churchill
3:26
said and you guys just continue to stick with it.
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It was again great to see our hard work rewarded with a big,
3:31
big, big night last night. So with that being said, let's
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move right into today guys lot to get to, as I mentioned a six
3:37
pack across NBANHL and college basketball.
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But I want to start with what I've been dubbing and kind of
3:42
playing up all week as win total Wednesday.
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Now, it's not only win totals, because I'm going to talk about
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some futures bets here in terms of to win their division as well
3:51
as the American League Rook of the year, but take a step back
3:54
win totals, as well as basically just in general a conversation
3:57
about futures. I think the important thing when
3:59
you're betting futures is #1. It's a beneficial experience
4:04
because whether you place a futures bet or not, you had to
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do some homework to place that bet.
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So maybe you do some homework. You say, hey, I'm leaning toward
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this and then you realize say, hey, I'm not a great edge, I'll
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lay off. Even if you lay off or you bet
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it or don't bet it, you spent time, you know, whether it's an
4:18
hour or five hours learning about these teams.
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So the process of whether you bet or don't bet a win total,
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just the process of researching it and preparing yourself to cap
4:28
a win total, I think is beneficial once the season
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arrives because there's going to be some institutional knowledge
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that we have on these teams because we already spent some
4:34
time researching them. So that's one benefit to win
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totals and futures. The other thing is having a
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rooting interest throughout the year, something to hopefully get
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a good number on. Like I'll give you an example, I
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I had the Bruins over points, the Celtics over win total.
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Both of those have hit. Obviously I'm a I'm a Bruins and
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the Celtics fan. I'm from Boston.
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But the whole point being is it gives you something to root for
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throughout the year. Especially if you feel like this
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number right now before the season starts is going to be the
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best number you that you're going to get all year.
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That's really the goal of betting these early obviously
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win totals you know futures, they're going to be updated
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throughout the season. They'll be available to bet
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throughout the season. But really now before opening
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day is when we're going to get ideally the best value.
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And then of course when it comes to futures and win totals, make
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sure you have the liquidity to bet these because you don't want
5:18
to bet too many. You don't have a million of
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futures bets here, just, you know, be disciplined, only have
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a handful because the last thing you want is to bet, you know ten
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win totals and and five player awards and you bet you know a
5:30
unit on each. And now you have like nothing
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left in your bankroll to bet on sports from a daily basis
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standpoint. So don't go too overboard.
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Just be disciplined, limit them to your your sharpest bets that
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you feel you have the greatest edge and then boom, fire away
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and be able to track them throughout the year.
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So that's just a couple little little you know, you know
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guidelines so we can remember as we've got win totals whether
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it's baseball or NFL. By the way, I saw the NFL win
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totals just came out my Patriots are I think 4 1/2 juiced up
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over. Anyway, we got a long ways to
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go. We're going to continue to look
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toward the NFL draft. But just whole point being you
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want to keep those factors in mind when you're betting
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futures. So with all that being said,
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let's talk some MLB win totals on a big Wednesday.
6:09
So you may have heard me talk about this one before.
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It's the first win total, I bet. I bet it weeks ago, probably
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over a month ago at this point. And it is my favorite win total,
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especially on the news that this team added Jordan Montgomery
6:21
yesterday. One year 25,000,000.
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But you know who he went to? The D Backs.
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So the Diamondbacks are a team that I have been focusing on
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pretty much the entire offseason.
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I got the D backs over 83 1/2 wins.
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Now they went 84 and 78 last year.
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We all know they went to the World Series.
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Are they as good of a team as last year?
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If not better? I would argue yes.
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So 84 wins last year. Can they win 84 again Now the
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one thing is with Jordan Montgomery joining the D backs,
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their win total is now 84 1/2. So it was worth basically one
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win for the Diamondbacks overall.
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So now if you didn't play it yet, if you didn't listen to,
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you know, some of the previous podcasts where I highlighted
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this or kind of my appearances at V Sin.
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Like if you're holding an over 83 1/2 D backs now, you're
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feeling great now that they signed Montgomery.
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If not, I'll still go over 84 1/2 if that's your only number.
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The other thing with win total shop round, you know 84 1/2
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might be at one book. Maybe another book has 84.
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Maybe one book is slow and still has 83 1/2.
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So make sure you shop around to get the best number.
7:18
But not only adding Montgomery, but they also added Eduardo
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Rodriguez, lefty good lefty from Red Sox previously.
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Also, they are joining with Meryl Kelly, Zach Gallon,
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Brandon Fought, so they're really good starting rotation.
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They added some good, you know, thumpers to the lineup, adding
7:34
Jock Peterson and Eugenio Suarez.
7:36
And really, I'm banking on Corbin Carroll and Moreno, their
7:39
catcher, who are two young cornerstones here.
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And they did. They also resigned Lordes
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Guriel, who was a big, you know, big part of their lineup here in
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the middle of their lineup. So I could tell Marte, I mean,
7:49
this is a very deep team that had a good year last year, spent
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some money improved, added Montgomery.
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For the cherry on top guys I am. I was already holding AD backs
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over 83 1/2 wins win total bet. Now I'll go 84 1/2.
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But again 83 1/2 was your best number.
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That's my first 1D backs over 83 1/2 second win total bet.
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I'm going with the OS. I'll be honest guys.
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I'm loving the OS. I'm a Red Sox fan AL ES guy.
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But I think the Orioles are the team to beat here so I'm going
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to go Orioles over. Here's what's important. 89 1/2
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is there. Win toll at FanDuel.
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Another book is 90 1/2 another book is 90.
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So go shop around. Go bet this at the best book you
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can find the best number. But I'm going to go with the
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with the over Orioles over 89 1/2 wins.
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Again, some books are at 90 1/2, but find that 89 1/2.
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They went one O 1 and 61 last year.
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We all know they had an incredible year.
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And really with the Orioles it's not that they made a bunch of
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additions in the offseason. It's just that they are building
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this young core who's extremely talented and gaining more
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experience. So Adly Rushman, their starting
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catcher Gunner Henderson won Rookie of the Year Jackson
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Holiday. We'll get to him in a second
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because I have a play on Rookie of the Year and it's not
8:57
Holiday. I think Holiday's going to
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start. I believe in the minors and
9:00
probably come up at some point, but a really good young core,
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Mount Castle, Santander. I mean they're super deep, but I
9:07
really like the fact that, you know, they're growing together.
9:09
So it's a team that's building together, growing together.
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They didn't really lose anybody. Kind of the youth and the the
9:15
vibrance. And also, you know, I'll throw
9:17
this out there they did, Their owner was a complete jerk.
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He got, I think they sold the team.
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So maybe you have better ownership.
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Who's willing to spend more money at the deadline and make
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moves? Those are some things you always
9:28
got to consider. But also the big one is Corbin
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Burns. Adding Corbin Burns from the
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Milwaukee Brewers to pair with their young stud Grayson
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Rodriguez Wells, Kramer, Irvin, they have a pretty good
9:38
rotation. I mean, I'm really high in the
9:40
Orioles in general, and I'm going to actually have another
9:42
bet on the Orioles I'm going to tell you about in a second.
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But I'm going over 89 1/2 wins for Baltimore.
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Again, shop around because there are books as high as 90 1/2.
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Last one, I'm going over 83 1/2 wins for the San Francisco G
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men. That's right.
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I'm going Giants here, guys. The Giants open the offseason
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with a win total of 81 1/2. They're up to 83 1/2.
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So on the one hand, you're saying, hey, you're not getting
10:06
the best of the number. It's moved a little bit, which
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is never a good thing. You want to get the triggering
10:10
number, but hopefully it won't matter.
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Hopefully this team wins 84 or more.
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I'm going to go over that 83 1/2.
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They won 79 games last year and they really, you know, just made
10:21
only what I would call additions, really no
10:22
subtractions. They spent a lot of money.
10:25
Maybe my, maybe my Red Sox can learn a thing or two about
10:27
spending money. But they added Jun Hoon Lee.
10:31
He's an outfielder from, I don't know, Japan or Korea, but gave
10:35
him a lot of money. He's supposed to be a pretty
10:37
good addition outfielder. They added Jorge Solaire who can
10:40
bring thump to the line up. They added Matt Chapman.
10:43
Great defense, a good bat. And the big addition was adding
10:46
Blake Snell to Logan Webb and Harrison and Hicks.
10:50
So pretty good 1/2. With Snell and Webb, a bunch of
10:53
pop has been added to the lineup and I'm also like the defense
10:56
here, or actually the the pitching I should say the
10:59
bullpen in particular. Doval is a really good closer in
11:01
the two Rogers brothers, Taylor and Tyler, I believe they're
11:05
pretty good set up men as well, so good bullpen.
11:08
And then also you look at Pakoda, they have projected 86
11:11
wins for the Giants. So if we're getting over 83 1/2
11:14
sounds like value to me. I'm going Giants over 83 1/2
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wins, Orioles over 89 1/2 wins and D backs over now 84 1/2.
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I got 83 1/2 couple bets here to win their division.
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American League East, the aforementioned Baltimore
11:30
Orioles. I'm going Orioles, guys.
11:32
I got the Orioles at +200 to win the AL East.
11:35
Now the Yankees are the favorite here, but Yankees to me maybe a
11:40
bit of a sell high because on the one hand did they brought in
11:44
Soto but big injury to to Garrett Cole.
11:47
You know he got. I didn't get an elbow issue.
11:50
I don't know. He's not out for the year, but
11:51
he's going to be out for at least the the early portion of
11:53
the season. Lemay Hew's gotten hurt.
11:55
They don't have much in the way of pitching.
11:57
You know if you have Judge and Stanton and obviously Soto stay
12:00
healthy, you know maybe catch a lot of overs and have a good
12:03
really good offense here. But the Yankees have fallen off.
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The Jays still competitive. The Rays they've fallen off a
12:10
bit too. Their one total is only only 84
12:13
1/2 I believe. The Red Sox obviously stink.
12:15
Their win total fell from 80 to like 77 1/2.
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But really from a data perspective, what I like about
12:21
Baltimore, I got a fresh batch of data from BET MGM.
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At BET MGM, the Orioles are getting 47% of bets, but nearly
12:27
60% of the money to win the American League East.
12:30
So if this is a team that I'm going to go over 89 1/2 wins for
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and I'm super high on, then why aren't I playing them to win
12:36
their division? Well, I am going to play them to
12:37
win their division. You got the Orioles +200 to win
12:41
the division. Next bet for you, AL West.
12:44
Let's go to the West. Go on Astros.
12:47
You know, death, taxes and Astros winning this division.
12:49
They won it last year, but good movement toward the Astros.
12:51
They open the offseason plus 1:50 to win the division.
12:55
Now they're -110. So we're pretty much just paying
12:57
a juice price here. 35% bets over 40% money at bet.
13:02
MGM is on the Astros to win the division Didn't make a ton of
13:05
additions, but a great core still of Altuve Alvarez, Tucker
13:09
Bregman, the experience, the pedigree.
13:11
But one big addition is Josh Hater bringing in the big lefty
13:14
to be the closer. That makes Ryan Presley the set
13:16
up man. So have a good rotation with
13:18
Framber Valdez and Javier and a bunch of those other guys.
13:21
Brown could be a a good young stud as well.
13:24
But if you look at that division, obviously Oakland's
13:27
terrible. You know the Angels aren't very
13:29
good. Seattle's intriguing and
13:31
obviously Texas won it last year but we've seen their win total
13:34
dip a little bit as well. So I I'm just going to go chalk
13:37
here with Astros. But they have the movement.
13:39
They have a good bet split. I like them to win that AL West.
13:41
So I think it's a good price getting the Astros here.
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You know, if they get off to a good lead, that -110 juice
13:47
price, that's going to be -150 before you know it.
13:49
So I'm going Astros to win the West at -110, Orioles to win the
13:53
AL East at +200. Then last bet here for you, a
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futures bet to place on the eve of opening day.
13:59
Let's go to the American League Rookie of the Year.
14:03
Now when I'm betting a lot of these futures, like I think on
14:06
the one hand, typically you want to wait as late as you can, you
14:08
know, because things can change. You can have one guy be the
14:11
favorite next guy next week it's someone new.
14:14
You know, usually you're not going to get the best number.
14:16
But think of Lamar Jackson. You know, we went through the
14:19
NFL season where, you know, it was Mahomes, it was Purdy at one
14:22
point. It was Josh Allen, it was
14:23
Burrow, it was Dak Prescott one week and end up being Jackson
14:27
and he really lit it up late and became that favorite late.
14:31
So on the one hand, you want to wait.
14:32
But the other thing is if there's a generational talent
14:35
that comes around that you feel like it's the best time to bet
14:36
it now. Like, for example, betting
14:39
Connor Badad and Victor Wenbanyama, who we bet on the
14:42
Pod before the start of the NBA and NHL year this year.
14:46
That's the type of play I want to make, and we're feeling
14:48
pretty good about both. They're huge favorites.
14:50
But I got a guy who's a generational talent in Major
14:52
League Baseball and his name is not Jackson Holiday, who's the
14:56
young stud for the Orioles? It's Wyatt Langford.
15:00
I don't know if you guys have read about this kid.
15:02
He is on the Texas Rangers. He's going to start the season
15:05
with the Rangers. He's lighting it up in Spring
15:07
training. Now if you look at from a data
15:09
perspective, he opened the offseason plus 800 to win Rookie
15:12
of the Year and now he's down to plus 225.
15:14
He's the favorite. He's getting 20% bets, 30%
15:17
money. He was the 4th pick in the MLB
15:19
draft in 2023 and he played for the Florida Gators.
15:23
But what it really got me going is that I I I prescribe or I
15:28
subscribe to the Athletic. So I read The Athletic.
15:30
They have pretty good coverage and help every now and again.
15:32
They help me cash a bet. Like they have pretty good mock
15:34
drafts for the NFL Draft right now.
15:36
But I was reading an article from, I believe it was Ken
15:39
Rosenthal came out yesterday or the day before about how amazing
15:43
Wyatt Langford is and raving about him and how the Texas
15:46
Rangers, like, feel like they got the next Ted Williams.
15:49
Basically, maybe not Ted Williams, but either way I'm
15:51
reading about it and I'm getting flashbacks to a year ago when I
15:55
was reading all the same things about Corbin Carroll and I was
15:59
looking at the stats. Corbin Carroll, you know, hit
16:01
500 no matter where he played high school.
16:03
You know, you know college, wherever it may be, all
16:06
throughout the, you know, single A, AA, AAA.
16:08
Well, I looked at Wyatt Langford's stats from Florida
16:11
and then what he's done so far in the minors and it's the same
16:14
exact thing. So I'm getting deja vu.
16:16
Just the way this article was written in favor of Langford
16:19
sounded exactly like that article I read at the beginning
16:21
of the year last year that talked about Corbin Carroll.
16:24
So I'm thinking this kid Langford, maybe he's the real
16:26
deal. And if he is, this is going to
16:28
be a pretty good payout here if we can get it.
16:30
So I'm going Wyatt Langford plus 225 to win the American League
16:35
Rookie of the Year. Now of course, starting
16:38
tomorrow, we will bet MLB Major League Baseball on a daily basis
16:42
and different ways to approach it.
16:44
But don't feel like we're going to you know, we'll talk about it
16:47
all today. Just remember that we're going
16:48
to bet baseball every day. We're going to pick and choose
16:50
our spots. We'll get our model down, but
16:52
starting tomorrow we will have some plays for Major League
16:54
Baseball. But let's move over to today and
16:57
our sweats for today. After a great day yesterday, 5
16:59
and 1 + 2.84 units, I want to go first to some college
17:03
basketball. So let's go to the CBI
17:05
championship game. So this is Seattle and High
17:08
point Seattle is about a 1 1/2 point favorite.
17:11
So it's a very short spread here.
17:13
But where am I going? I'm going under here.
17:15
I'm going to play the under. I got the under Seattle High
17:18
point under 150. Now some books are down to 149
17:22
1/2, obviously trying to shop around for 1:50.
17:24
The first thing that jumped out to me with this one is that on
17:27
the spread Seattle hasn't moved at all.
17:28
They open -1 1/2. They've stayed -1 1/2, but the
17:31
total is dipped. The total open at 1:51.
17:34
Overnight it got down to 150. Now it's creeping down toward
17:37
149 1/2. So I've seen a lot of movement
17:40
and sharp action on this under and if you look at the
17:43
percentages, it's a good sharp reverse line move because nearly
17:45
60% of bets are going over here. But what I really like about
17:49
this under is a Tired Legs championship game.
17:52
Under So Tired Legs is the fact that these teams are playing
17:55
their third game in three days. Again, this is the the CBI
17:58
championship game. So they played Monday, Tuesday,
18:02
now Wednesday, so third game in three days.
18:04
Your legs are tired. Your front rim your shots maybe
18:06
your your fast break isn't as fast.
18:09
There's always that angle of tired legs unders, especially on
18:11
neutral courts. There's another neutral courts
18:13
game will be played, I believe Daytona Beach and Florida also
18:18
championship games. There's a system that I love to
18:20
play when it comes to both NHL and NBA.
18:23
Game six or Game 7 unders. The whole thought process there
18:26
is that one, you've had a grueling series.
18:28
That doesn't apply here because this isn't a, you know, best of
18:30
seven, best of you know best of five, best of three.
18:33
It's just the one game. But the championship game is the
18:37
biggest game of the year. So therefore you're going to
18:39
lock down on defense, you're going to use the shot clock.
18:41
You're not going to be a little more conservative.
18:43
You're not going to want to turn it over.
18:44
So that just goes toward that system.
18:47
Match of You know, championship games tired legs unders Game 7
18:51
unders. That would match here with this
18:53
Seattle high point under in which the total is also falling
18:56
and it's a reverse line move. Then lastly, both these teams
18:59
are kind of on the slower end of the of the pace spectrum.
19:02
Seattle has a tempo of 67.1, high point is 68.9.
19:06
The line of demarcation for fast versus slow is around 70.
19:09
So anything below 70 is slow. Above 70 is fast.
19:12
These are two slower teams Tired legs.
19:14
Third game in three days the total is dropping.
19:16
It's a championship game defensive effort with a good
19:19
reverse line move. So I'm going Seattle and high
19:21
point. It's a 5:00 game.
19:23
I'm going under 150. If you can't find that 149 1/2,
19:28
keep on cruising. Now let's go over to the NBA.
19:31
After a great night in the NBA, two and a last night with our
19:33
totals, I said hey, let's run it back.
19:35
Let's do the same thing here tonight.
19:36
So first one for me, the Warriors and the Magic 7:00 game
19:40
here tonight. Now I've seen some movement
19:42
toward the Magic. Magic Open -3, 1/2.
19:45
They're up all the way down to 4 1/2 or five magic of a pretty
19:48
good bet split here they're getting around 60% bets, 90%
19:52
money. This would be a fate of Golden
19:53
State cause Golden State played last night so fading teams on
19:56
the second leg of a back-to-back on the money line that's 74%
19:59
this year it's around -180 -, 190 magic.
20:02
I really don't mind that at all. What I'm doing is I'm going
20:05
under here. I'm going Golden State in
20:07
Orlando under 218. I love the fact that.
20:11
It's really good bet split, you know 70% of bets are over.
20:14
Get this total open 218. It's pretty much stayed 218 or
20:17
even dipped down to 217 1/2. So steam move or basically a a
20:22
sharp line freeze or maybe some reverse line movement.
20:25
The under is only getting 30% bets but 60% of the money.
20:28
So great low bets higher dollar bet split there as well.
20:31
Also, Orlando is the 2nd best defensive in Earth.
20:35
Let me put it this way. In terms of defense defensive
20:37
efficiency, Orlando is #2 in the NBA, second best overall
20:40
defensive efficiency. They're also slow.
20:43
They're 25th in terms of pace. The Magic are eight and three to
20:46
the under in the month of March. The Warriors 7:00 and 6:00 to
20:49
the under in the month of March on the second leg of a
20:51
back-to-back where Golden State's probably going to be
20:53
gassed here. It's kind of a sharp line
20:56
freeze. I was considering that Magic
20:58
money line, but -180 is a little bit high.
21:01
I would still lean under I would still lean you know magic money
21:04
liner or nothing actually made me feel like I should have
21:07
played that. But I'm going to go under here
21:09
just on the really sharp line freeze with a good system match
21:12
to the under good bet splits good good defense slow pace
21:16
back-to-back for Warriors. So hopefully you know Magic get
21:19
up big take their foot off the gas and we and we get this under
21:22
here. So I'm going Warriors and
21:24
Orlando Magic under 218. Next step for you, Nets and
21:28
Wizards going under 221. Nets and Wizards seen a
21:32
movement, a little bit of movement toward the Nets.
21:34
They open -2 1/2. They're up to -3 1/2, but I like
21:37
this under quite a bit. This total open at 2:25, it's
21:41
down to 221 and some books I'm seeing even inch down to 220
21:45
1/2. So the unders getting hammered
21:47
64% bets, 84% dollars, really sharp bet split here.
21:51
Now both teams are basically at the bottom of the barrel in
21:55
terms of offensive efficiency. They're both bottom eight in the
21:58
NBA for offensive efficiency unders.
22:01
In the month of March they're 102 and 8854%.
22:04
But here's the thing, when the total was 220 or more in the
22:07
month of March, the under is 56%.
22:09
So just really jumping out to me, this Nets, Wizards under it
22:12
got hammered quite a bit. It's continuing to fall.
22:15
I've seen nothing but sharp movement toward this under and
22:18
if you look at some of the Nets box scores, they've been playing
22:19
a lot of low scoring games here. So hopefully that continues.
22:22
I'm going to go Nets Wizards under 221.
22:26
And again some shops are 220 1/2 at this point.
22:29
Now 4 and over. That's right going over here.
22:32
But it's a low total over. Blazers.
22:34
Hawks. I'm going Blazers.
22:36
Hawks over 217. Some books are 217 1/2.
22:41
One thing I notice here is a big steam move to the over open
22:44
around 2:15. It's up to 217.
22:47
Really good bet split, 70% bets, 85%.
22:49
Money is on the over. Atlanta by the way is fifth
22:53
fastest team in terms of pace. They're 10th offensively.
22:56
They're 28th defensively. So this They're fast.
23:00
They score a lot. They give up a lot.
23:01
Portland by the way, 22nd in defensive efficiency, low total
23:05
overs that I was talking about. When the total is 217 or less,
23:08
the over is 58%. This year it's 59 and 42.
23:12
The Blazers by the way, are the number one team in the NBA when
23:14
it comes to the over in the month of March.
23:17
In March, the Blazers are 10 and five to the over.
23:19
Hawks. By the way, 30 and 33 to the
23:21
over this year. That's only 54%, but that is
23:24
fifth best in the NBA. This one just jumped out to me
23:27
because a lot of the totals on the board today have really
23:29
fallen. This one's risen and it went
23:32
from a low number. You know 2:15.
23:33
This isn't like 230 up to 233. Can we get over 217?
23:38
That seems doable to me, especially when it comes to the
23:41
Blazers, the best over team in the month of March.
23:43
So hopefully the Hawks put in a lot of points and Blazers do
23:45
their part. But I'm going to go Hawks over
23:48
217. Now over to the NHL.
23:51
Got two bets for you in the NHL. First one is a system match from
23:56
last night. I'm running it back and I'm a
23:58
little hesitant because you know, it's going against my
24:00
favorite team, the Boston Bruins.
24:01
But I think one thing you got to learn in sports betting is that
24:04
you can't have any favorites. You got to just bet based on,
24:06
you know, what the market is telling you, what the system
24:08
matches are popping. We have one tonight against my
24:11
Bruins. So it's on Tampa Bay.
24:13
I'm going Tampa Bay here, guys shop around.
24:15
I got Tampa Bay at -110 -, 115 around there.
24:19
It's a very short price, but Tampa Bay is a very short
24:23
favorite against the Bruins here tonight and the angle here is
24:26
the same one that we had last night with the Predators fade
24:29
Teams on the second leg of a back-to-back.
24:31
So the Boston Bruins played yesterday.
24:33
I was kind of shocked because they've struggled a bit.
24:35
They had a BIG43 win against Florida.
24:37
Now they're playing again tonight.
24:39
If you look at favorites against teams on the second leg of a
24:42
back-to-back, they're now 132 and 6567% this year with almost
24:47
a 7% ROI. So that would match with Tampa
24:49
Bay. It's a big rest for his tired
24:51
spot. Bruins played last night.
24:53
Tampa Bay hasn't played since the 24th.
24:56
They haven't played since Sunday.
24:57
So that's a big rest first tired advantage.
24:59
Other system matches here. Rest first tired, which is 69%
25:03
this year. Now their favored rested favored
25:06
off a win 64% this year. So a bunch of matches on Tampa
25:09
Bay now power play 29% versus 24% in favor of Tampa Bay.
25:16
Now the penalty kills about the same.
25:18
Obviously you know Bruins are a good team.
25:20
So is Tampa Bay. But I'm going to put some faith
25:22
in this fade second leg of a back-to-back.
25:24
It's going to be olmark against Vasilevsky and Braden point
25:27
missed the last game he's expected to play here tonight.
25:29
So that's a big, big boost there for Tampa Bay.
25:33
But it's just a tough schedule spot for the Bruins.
25:35
Again, it's a very short price. You can look at the other way
25:38
how often you get Tampa Bay at home at like a -, 110 juice
25:41
price. But it's all about that second
25:43
leg of a back-to-back, which would be a fate of Boston.
25:45
So I'm going Tampa Bay on the money line.
25:48
I got him at -110 now last bed of the night and boy, we we got
25:53
a big pot here today. I'm going to go to a shots on
25:56
goal prop for an NHL player here in honor of Wyatt Johnson who
26:00
went over 2 1/2 last night. I got another one for you, Drake
26:04
Batherson over 2 1/2 shots tonight.
26:08
It's -130, so it's, you know, juiced up, tells us there's
26:10
liability over. Now this is part of the Ottawa
26:14
and Buffalo game. There's only two NHL games
26:16
tonight. Bruins are at 7:30, Tampa Bay
26:19
and Ottawa. Buffalo's at 7:00.
26:20
But this game here, Buffalo is about a -, 140 favorite.
26:24
Total 6 1/2. What I like about Drake
26:26
Batherson over 2 1/2 shots on goal.
26:29
One it's juiced up. -130 tells us there's liability over.
26:33
Now he's gone over this number in three straight games.
26:36
He's gone over this number in ten of his last 14 games.
26:39
He's on the top line with Ottawa, so he has a lot of
26:43
opportunities offensively. He is rested so they haven't
26:47
played since Sunday, so hopefully you got your legs and
26:49
you're feeling good to go. A lot of energy tonight.
26:51
There's also the highest total on the board, 6 1/2, so more
26:54
offense, more scoring, more shots on goal.
26:57
Hopefully that's to our benefit. Drake Batherson is the 4th
27:00
leading scorer on Ottawa. He gets a lot of power play
27:03
time. He's averaging almost 18 minutes
27:05
per game time on ice. But again, kind of checking off
27:09
the boxes that we had with Wyatt Johnston last night, a lot of
27:11
the same ones are popping for Drake Batherson tonight.
27:14
So I'm going Drake Batherson over 2 1/2 shots on goal at -130
27:21
said about does it for episode 10.
27:23
Can you believe it? We already got 10 ASG pods under
27:25
our belt. Thank you all for tuning in.
27:27
As always. Reminder if you enjoy the ASG
27:29
pod and you want to help us, you know water this seed that we're
27:33
growing the All Systems Go sports sports betting podcast.
27:37
You want to spread the word tell a friend.
27:39
It would mean a lot to me really what you want to do, which would
27:42
really mean a lot to me just, you know, specifically is if you
27:45
give this pod a five star review, give it five stars on
27:48
Spotify. Also, I'm messing around with
27:50
adding comments and I did it yesterday.
27:55
There's you can do polls in Spotify.
27:57
So like what's your favorite bet of the night?
27:58
I listed all the best bets. So I'm learning more about
28:01
Spotify and Spotify really is the number one source.
28:04
Obviously iTunes is right there and other people use Google,
28:08
Amazon as well as iHeartRadio. But again Spotify is kind of the
28:11
main one because my goal is to get so big that we become Joe
28:14
Rogan show and then we get some paid ads in there.
28:17
That's all. That's the long term goal that
28:19
I'm working toward. But what you can do now to help
28:21
me get the pot off the ground is give it a five star review.
28:24
Give it five stars. That mean a lot to me guys.
28:27
Now, if you all also enjoy the pod and you want to learn more
28:29
about data-driven sports betting, or you just think I'm a
28:32
good guy, you want to make my day?
28:33
Then I have a request. Go buy my book.
28:35
Go to Amazon.com. Type in the Everything Guide to
28:38
Sports betting. Pick up a copy for you or for a
28:40
friend. It would mean the world to me,
28:41
guys. It's got everything I've learned
28:42
in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
28:45
they move, How to read line movement.
28:46
How to locate sharp action. How to place a bet in person or
28:49
online. How to shop for the best line.
28:51
How to set up a bankroll management plan.
28:53
How to bet MLB. It's all included in the
28:55
Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
28:56
So go to Amazon, pick one up. It's only 20 bucks.
28:59
When I see at the book, I'll sign it and I'll buy you a beer.
29:01
How about that about does it for episode 10 of the All Systems Go
29:05
Pod. Also, you can give me a follow
29:07
on Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
29:09
You can follow the ASG pod on Twitter at under score ASG under
29:14
score Podcast. Also, I want to let you know
29:16
about rhythm because Rhythm does a fantastic job Powering this
29:20
this podcast here. And Rhythm is the ultimate AI
29:23
sports betting app for data, back pics and props.
29:26
So I want you to go download the Rhythm app.
29:29
All you got to do is click the pin tweet at the top of my
29:31
profile at Josh under score Insights or the ASG Pod page.
29:35
There's going to be a pin link tweet there.
29:37
Click the link. It's going to be custom link
29:39
sign up with Rhythm, give it a shot. 7 day free trial with
29:43
March Madness coming back tomorrow.
29:45
A lot of great angles and NBA player props as well.
29:48
But Rhythm was founded in 2022 by a team of mathematical
29:51
quants, data scientists, and machine learning engineers, and
29:54
I've been playing around with it for quite a while now.
29:56
At this point I am super proud to be teaming up with Rhythm
30:00
because they have some really advanced models that can help
30:02
you win bets. So go give that 7 day free free
30:05
trial a shot by clicking that link pinned at the top of my
30:08
Twitter page and the ASG Pod Twitter page.
30:11
But that about does it everyone. Reminder whether I see you at
30:15
the Encore in Boston or Plainers Park Cocine or MGM Springfield
30:19
route, New York routed out in the desert.
30:22
Whether it's a South point. Whether it's whether it's Circa.
30:24
Whatever it may be. You're going to walk up to me
30:26
and you're going to flash me some real nice tickets from last
30:28
night. A Wyatt Johnston over 2 1/2
30:30
shots ticket. Predators.
30:32
Miami. Golden State under Dallas.
30:33
Sacramento under Indiana State with the with the great win
30:37
their money line. The only one that didn't come
30:39
through was Hurricanes. Probably the game you might have
30:41
felt the most confident in. But that's the way betting goes.
30:43
But guess what? First one's on me.
30:44
Next one's on you. We're going to post about the
30:46
book. Sweat sharp.
30:47
Conturion plays all night long. So wish the best of luck
30:50
everyone. My parting words Stay sharp,
30:52
Stay contrarian. Bet against the public.
30:54
Place yourself on the side of the house.
30:55
Always be with the smart money. Never against it.
30:57
Will smart money. When?
30:58
Every time? Of course not.
31:00
If you haven't realized yet, sports betting is hard.
31:02
But that's why when you go O and three, you can't get too down on
31:04
yourself. And when you go five and one, it
31:07
gives you some confidence. You know, you know, you know,
31:08
You know. You know you're on the right
31:10
track. But if we can consistently find
31:12
that sweet spot, you know. Bypass the games that I have red
31:15
flags and don't check off the boxes.
31:17
Get down on the games that do. Against the public, with the
31:19
house, with the pros. Flat bet, avoid parlays, Get
31:22
some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
31:24
to be successful sports bettors, everyone.
31:26
So enjoy your Wednesday night. We have of course tomorrow MLB
31:31
Opening day as well as Sweet 16 March Madness.
31:34
So it's a great time to be betting on sports and and I'm
31:37
very honored to be hosting this pod and and talking sharp and
31:41
sharing plays with you each day. But have a great day everyone.
31:43
Good luck. Cash some tickets.
31:45
I'll see you back tomorrow for opening day.
31:47
Put me in coach. I'm ready to play.