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The Favorites - 2024 NFL Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:12
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action
0:19
Speaker 1: Network Huge Show. Today, I'm joined as always by my
0:25
Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my bff professional
0:29
Speaker 1: better Simon Hunt.
0:31
Speaker 2: Hello sim in Hello Chat, our last off season show, brother.
0:38
Speaker 1: You know what, I'm not even thinking about it that way.
0:39
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about it as our first regular season show
0:43
Speaker 1: because on today's show, we have so much actionable, important
0:49
Speaker 1: stuff to go over. Our twenty twenty four NFL Best
0:54
Speaker 1: Bets Futures episode, the final episode before Week one begins. Basically,
1:00
Speaker 1: in this episode, we're going to cover all of our
1:03
Speaker 1: favorite plays from the eight division preview episodes that we did,
1:07
Speaker 1: plus anything else that we've got in our portfolio heading
1:11
Speaker 1: into Week one. I did some betting this weekend. I
1:16
Speaker 1: found a couple of creative bets that I'm super excited about.
1:18
Speaker 1: I want to get your reaction to. I haven't heard
1:21
Speaker 1: many people talking about them, but they're taking from data
1:25
Speaker 1: and intel and conversations that we've had in our episodes.
1:28
Speaker 1: Plus you and I are going to go over our
1:30
Speaker 1: seven teams to make the playoffs and our final four
1:34
Speaker 1: for the conference championship games, and then our Super Bowl
1:38
Speaker 1: also will be joined. Now we know it's time right
1:43
Speaker 1: because Evan Abrams, director of Research, is back. He has
1:47
Speaker 1: come prepared with incredible data and analysis surrounding some of
1:51
Speaker 1: our favorite bets, and we love when Evan comes on.
1:55
Speaker 1: He usually at least in my mind, nine ways to
2:00
Speaker 1: support anything that we're saying, completely picking and choosing what
2:04
Speaker 1: I want him to say. Plus people will have to
2:08
Speaker 1: listen to the end of the show. Most people know
2:12
Speaker 1: Brett McMurphy as probably the most plugged in college football
2:16
Speaker 1: insider in the country. He works with us here at
2:20
Speaker 1: Action Networked for the past several years. He has a
2:22
Speaker 1: story that has nothing to do with football, but it
2:26
Speaker 1: is so insane and intense that he is literally in
2:30
Speaker 1: tears while he is telling the story something specific that
2:32
Speaker 1: happened to him years ago that puts him in the
2:34
Speaker 1: center of national news that he tells that I don't
2:37
Speaker 1: think a lot of people have heard this story. Plus
2:39
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell will reveal a long running con that he
2:43
Speaker 1: played on me all last football season that he revealed
2:46
Speaker 1: to the entire company. Intern aal hands meeting as a reminder,
2:49
Speaker 1: the Favorite Podcast is presented by Bet three six five.
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Speaker 1: to the show right now, you have zero reasons not
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Speaker 1: to sign up for the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand
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Speaker 1: dollars Pro Football Pick Them Contest. It's officially back, presented
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Speaker 1: by Bet three sixty five. You know the drill folks,
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Speaker 1: it is so much fun. You were going to compete
3:46
Speaker 1: against me and Simon directly. The five picks that we
3:48
Speaker 1: talk about on the show get entered into the contest.
3:51
Speaker 1: You could play against us, putting your picks against the spread.
3:55
Speaker 1: Each week. We awarded more than one hundred thousand dollars
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Speaker 1: in cash prizes to our listeners last year, a first
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Speaker 1: It's free to play. Make your picks, sign up favorites
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Speaker 1: exactly and the prize you get two grand. No catch,
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Speaker 1: nothing to lose. Compete against me and Simon. You were
4:27
Speaker 1: gonna get clues on what we're taking because we're talking
4:29
Speaker 1: about on the show. Sign up free, free favorites dot
4:34
Speaker 1: action network, dot com. Simon. In the last week, the
4:42
Speaker 1: odds for the AFC East have changed dramatically. When we
4:50
Speaker 1: talked about the AFCs a couple weeks ago, we love
4:53
Speaker 1: the Bills at plus one seventy. Now the Jets are
4:57
Speaker 1: plus one seventy and the Bills are plus one ninety five.
4:59
Speaker 1: The dude, what do we think of this?
5:02
Speaker 3: No, we love the Jets. We love the Jets.
5:04
Speaker 2: It was plus one eighty when I said I thought
5:06
Speaker 2: the Bills should be plus two hundred. Things are working
5:08
Speaker 2: out now, the Bills are moving more towards plus two.
5:11
Speaker 2: I think, Yeah, we're Jets. This is the Jets show
5:14
Speaker 2: this year. I'm all about the Jets.
5:17
Speaker 1: It's interesting.
5:18
Speaker 2: Yeah. My view of it was I thought the value
5:21
Speaker 2: had moved too much where I thought they would be
5:22
Speaker 2: closer to what they should be, right, I thought they
5:24
Speaker 2: were more even keel, you know, not that Matt Milano
5:27
Speaker 2: is like the most important player ever to the Bills.
5:29
Speaker 2: But it's just it's just tough man. The Bills just
5:32
Speaker 2: can't catch a break with injury bug, while the Jets
5:35
Speaker 2: it's been all good. I mean, the only negative right
5:37
Speaker 2: is a son Reddick. But it's like, at the end
5:39
Speaker 2: of the day, I don't know if it's that big
5:41
Speaker 2: of a deal because he's never been in the building
5:43
Speaker 2: like that.
5:43
Speaker 3: Cancer has never really affected the team, so it.
5:46
Speaker 2: To me, it honestly makes sense now, especially when you
5:48
Speaker 2: factor in Chad the forty nine ers. We thought it'd
5:51
Speaker 2: be a tough game right week one. If they win
5:53
Speaker 2: that game, now they might be what six and zero
5:55
Speaker 2: to start the season. This Jets team, like, there's a
5:58
Speaker 2: path there for this team to be by far one
6:00
Speaker 2: of the best teams in at AFC. So I can
6:02
Speaker 2: see what the odds have shifted, right. I just think
6:04
Speaker 2: more people are more confident in that team now. Is
6:07
Speaker 2: the weeks have gone along here, So yeah, it's it's
6:10
Speaker 2: a scary time where people think the Jets are the
6:11
Speaker 2: second best team in the AFC.
6:13
Speaker 1: Well, listen, we're going to talk about it later in
6:15
Speaker 1: the show where we have our favorite our seven playoff
6:21
Speaker 1: teams and then championship games and then Super Bowl, so
6:23
Speaker 1: we'll see how much you believe in the Jets. At
6:26
Speaker 1: the end of the show, we're going to talk about
6:28
Speaker 1: some of our favorite bets right now and for the preseason.
6:32
Speaker 1: I have mentioned this several times. I'm going to go
6:34
Speaker 1: first my favorite, one of my favorite bets. I did
6:38
Speaker 1: it last year. It's entirely based on in Evan Abrams stat.
6:43
Speaker 1: Ten of the past eleven years, the Super Bowl matchup
6:48
Speaker 1: has featured teams who began the season with odds of
6:51
Speaker 1: twelve to one or less. So this season, I expanded
6:56
Speaker 1: my matchup to teams at fourteen to one or less,
7:00
Speaker 1: so that included the Chiefs, Niners, Ravens, Lions, Bengals, and Eagles.
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Speaker 1: So my bets were of these. It's the nine bats, right,
7:12
Speaker 1: Chiefs Niners seventeen to one, Chiefs Eagles twenty eight to one,
7:18
Speaker 1: Chiefs Lions twenty eight to one, Bengals Lions fifty to one,
7:27
Speaker 1: Bengals Eagles sixty to one, Bengals Niners thirty three to one,
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Speaker 1: Ravens Lions forty one to one, Ravens Eagles forty one
7:41
Speaker 1: to one, Ravens Niners twenty five to one. Last year,
7:45
Speaker 1: I had the Niners and the Chiefs, and I think
7:47
Speaker 1: that paid at like thirty to one. What do you think?
7:54
Speaker 2: I love it. My only change i'd make chet is
7:56
Speaker 2: I would take the Ravens out for Houston. I just
7:59
Speaker 2: think the Ravens have lost so much. I just don't
8:04
Speaker 2: know how they get back there, especially where we've seen Lamar,
8:08
Speaker 2: you know Falter in the playoffs, where you know CJ.
8:11
Speaker 2: It just feels like they're a team that took a
8:13
Speaker 2: next step this year in this offseason by adding all
8:16
Speaker 2: these pieces where the Ravens. I could see either being
8:18
Speaker 2: the same team they were last year, not so much
8:20
Speaker 2: the one seed, just a playoff team. But I just
8:23
Speaker 2: I can't have faith them in the playoffs. Where CJ
8:26
Speaker 2: he's got working for him. I don't really know with CJ, right,
8:28
Speaker 2: I I kind of could see him upsetting Mahomes where Lamar,
8:33
Speaker 2: I just I don't know about you, chat. I have
8:35
Speaker 2: zero faith down him ever beaten Mahomes.
8:37
Speaker 1: My honest to god sort of wild card of those three.
8:42
Speaker 1: And I was not that comfortable taking the Ravens, And
8:46
Speaker 1: that my very specific question. Playing the numbers, yeah, yeah,
8:49
Speaker 1: I'm like, I'm just playing the numbers, right. I was
8:52
Speaker 1: wondering if I should extend it a little bit further
8:54
Speaker 1: to the Texans, because I do think there's a little
8:56
Speaker 1: bit more movement and fluidity outside of sort of say
9:02
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. Everyone else, like even the Lions feel up
9:06
Speaker 1: for grabs. To me, I'm actually most confident right now
9:09
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs and the Eagles. What's happening with the
9:13
Speaker 1: Niners with Brandon Aiyuk, with Trent Williams, those are worrying trends.
9:20
Speaker 1: What's happening with the Bengals with Jamar Chase. This is
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Speaker 1: turning into a shit show a week before the season
9:25
Speaker 1: starts for a team that has a one year window
9:29
Speaker 1: to get it right. So I'm a little worried about that.
9:32
Speaker 1: So I'm glad you're saying the Texans because I have
9:34
Speaker 1: been trying to figure out how am I hedging this
9:38
Speaker 1: a little more? And what I do like about this
9:39
Speaker 1: is it gives me a lot of hedge options, but
9:43
Speaker 1: the payouts are so high that I can sort of
9:46
Speaker 1: buy back a little bit and hedge if I have to.
9:50
Speaker 1: As the season goes on, even deep into the playoffs,
9:53
Speaker 1: Like even once the playoffs start, I can start to
9:55
Speaker 1: sort of get a sense of whether or not I
9:57
Speaker 1: need to hedges a little bit. So I'm glad you
9:59
Speaker 1: say the Texas. Nice give me something, Simon, I go,
10:05
Speaker 1: but I want to hear what you.
10:06
Speaker 2: Mine will be a little different. I'm gonna try to
10:08
Speaker 2: fit a lot into a small space. So I'll give
10:10
Speaker 2: you my four gross teams win totals, right, and Chad
10:14
Speaker 2: knows these teams We've talked that nauging about it's start off.
10:16
Speaker 1: Do you want to give them to me one at
10:17
Speaker 1: a time or do you.
10:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, go real quick, though, so we can fit them
10:20
Speaker 3: all in.
10:20
Speaker 2: I just want to people want to know which which
10:23
Speaker 2: grossovers and unders. I like, let's just run through it,
10:26
Speaker 2: and I'm gonna give you my chalk favorite overs and unders.
10:28
Speaker 2: So these teams are bad teams, right, we all know that.
10:32
Speaker 2: My whole idea here is they're not as bad as
10:34
Speaker 2: you all perceive them to be. Right, This this team
10:37
Speaker 2: where you talk all season about and I know the
10:39
Speaker 2: fans of the show hate it. Carolina Panthers. Let's start
10:42
Speaker 2: right there, Chad. When we start talking about them in May,
10:46
Speaker 2: their win totals four and a half five. Not a
10:48
Speaker 2: lot of books. They're up to five and a half six.
10:50
Speaker 2: This is a team that the professionals love and the
10:53
Speaker 2: public just absolutely hates. I want you guys to turn
10:57
Speaker 2: a page on this team. Right, They're not what they
10:58
Speaker 2: were last year. The coach better, The offensive line is
11:02
Speaker 2: so much improved, you wouldn't believe it. The weapons, just
11:04
Speaker 2: the weapons they've added too young I think are better
11:07
Speaker 2: than they.
11:07
Speaker 3: Were last year.
11:08
Speaker 2: And then on the defensive side, yes, I have a
11:11
Speaker 2: ton of questions about their secondary. The fact they lost
11:13
Speaker 2: Burns is a big deal. He's one of the best
11:15
Speaker 2: DNS on football, But I don't think it's that big
11:18
Speaker 2: of a deal because they were so bad last year.
11:20
Speaker 2: If you just bring in the right coaching, I think
11:22
Speaker 2: that defense could take another step, especially in this division,
11:24
Speaker 2: just a division that we think the Saints and the
11:27
Speaker 2: Buccaneers will take a step back. Please Panthers over, that's
11:30
Speaker 2: one of them, Chad, the next whole one.
11:32
Speaker 1: Before you say that, do you worry that the number
11:35
Speaker 1: has now creeped up more than a game to some places,
11:39
Speaker 1: six a game and a half? Like, what is your
11:42
Speaker 1: threshold for betting the over on the Panthers? Because I
11:45
Speaker 1: looked at it and like, at five and a half,
11:48
Speaker 1: I didn't love the number anymore, but I did love
11:51
Speaker 1: the Panthers. I think eleven to one to win the
11:55
Speaker 1: UH to win the division. Evan is saying it's like
11:59
Speaker 1: four and a half is two seventy five to the old.
12:02
Speaker 2: So I don't mind it, though, like say it's a
12:04
Speaker 2: plus number of the six and a half. I don't
12:06
Speaker 2: mind it because there they have so many coin flip
12:09
Speaker 2: games that they could easily cross even Week one, Like
12:11
Speaker 2: if they win this week one game is a four
12:13
Speaker 2: point dog, what is their win til after that? Check.
12:15
Speaker 2: I could see it being up to six and a
12:17
Speaker 2: half for the season. So like to me, there's a
12:19
Speaker 2: bunch of coin flip games that they're dogs in right
12:21
Speaker 2: now that I think it's closer to a pick them.
12:23
Speaker 2: So I don't hate it, but at least you're getting
12:25
Speaker 2: a plus number now. But I agree with this. I
12:27
Speaker 2: would not be taking minus two to seventy five and
12:30
Speaker 2: over four and a half.
12:31
Speaker 3: I'm just I just wouldn't do it.
12:33
Speaker 1: Go signing up for the contest. I can guarantee you.
12:37
Speaker 1: I've got my list of five games that I've been
12:40
Speaker 1: pegging uh Panthers as underdogs.
12:46
Speaker 2: I know it sucks because again all the people listening,
12:49
Speaker 2: you sign up for the contest. Go put your picks
12:50
Speaker 2: in now, get the best of the number.
12:52
Speaker 1: Don't be like get the best number.
12:53
Speaker 3: Yeah we have to wait, I mean go.
12:55
Speaker 2: If you can still get the Jets four and a
12:57
Speaker 2: half against the forty nine ers, you can still get
12:59
Speaker 2: Panthers four and a half half, why not grab it.
13:01
Speaker 2: I just see those numbers keep coming down, So I
13:04
Speaker 2: lock your heads at chat. Next team up, that's a
13:07
Speaker 2: gross over. Give me the Raiders. I love this team
13:11
Speaker 2: over six and a half. Their minus one forty now
13:13
Speaker 2: towards the over. This is just another PROS team, Like
13:17
Speaker 2: the pros love this team, the public hates that. They
13:19
Speaker 2: hate Minshew. They don't really know much about this defense.
13:22
Speaker 2: This is another team just like the Panthers. They have
13:24
Speaker 2: a horrible secondary. This secondary might be terrible, but there's
13:28
Speaker 2: pieces of the build on in this's front, Like I
13:29
Speaker 2: really love their front seven. And then on the offensive side,
13:33
Speaker 2: I love all the pieces around Minshew, like he just
13:35
Speaker 2: has so many great weapons around him. The only hesitation
13:37
Speaker 2: I have right now with them is what the hell
13:39
Speaker 2: is going on brock Powers. This guy has not touched
13:41
Speaker 2: the field in weeks. I mean, Pierce is being super
13:44
Speaker 2: vague about it. I have no idea what's going on
13:46
Speaker 2: block Bowers, and that honestly does make me a little
13:48
Speaker 2: nervous because I haven't invested in this team, But I
13:50
Speaker 2: still have faith in this team's over. It's just it's
13:54
Speaker 2: been weird. I don't know why they're not tell us
13:56
Speaker 2: what's going on brock Bowers, but they keep saying he's
13:58
Speaker 2: just a healthy scratch or there's resting in his ankle.
14:01
Speaker 3: Their season starts in a week, so very weird. What's
14:05
Speaker 3: going on?
14:05
Speaker 2: Right now the Raiders in Las Vegas.
14:07
Speaker 1: Alright, hold on, hold on, you know I love you
14:12
Speaker 1: like a brother. I cannot get with you on the Raiders.
14:18
Speaker 1: I've been trying so hard, Like this weekend, I like
14:21
Speaker 1: I was fighting away on so much. I don't like
14:25
Speaker 1: the six and a half. I don't like minus one forty.
14:29
Speaker 1: When you break it down, you're like their secondary is terrible.
14:33
Speaker 1: They got Gardner Minshew rock Bowers the one guy they've
14:37
Speaker 1: decided to invest in. No, they already have tight ends.
14:41
Speaker 1: Has this seen the field and did have a pretty
14:43
Speaker 1: bad injury last year in college. Like, I can't get
14:48
Speaker 1: there on the Raiders.
14:50
Speaker 2: Because again, the vibes are now spect declar right now,
14:53
Speaker 2: and a lot of people betting right now are just
14:54
Speaker 2: trying to bet off five. So let's talk about a
14:57
Speaker 2: team that has great vibes Chad, same division, Denver Broncos
15:00
Speaker 2: over five and a half. We just love this team
15:03
Speaker 2: for the simple reason it's Sean Payton. Like Sean Payton
15:06
Speaker 2: historically always has his team's performed well. Now, speaking of
15:09
Speaker 2: awful defenses, this might be my thirty first ranked defense
15:12
Speaker 2: in all football. Denver's defense is atrocious. I mean they've
15:15
Speaker 2: literally burned it down. But I kind of like this thing.
15:18
Speaker 2: So the same thing I had with the Rams last year.
15:19
Speaker 2: It's like, I like these teams that have young, hungry players,
15:23
Speaker 2: and that's what.
15:23
Speaker 3: Happened with the Rams last year, right started out slow.
15:26
Speaker 2: Once the guys kind of got into a groove and
15:28
Speaker 2: started figuring these things out, I think abou how much
15:30
Speaker 2: better they got as the season went along. I think
15:32
Speaker 2: that's the same thing or Denver that they can start
15:34
Speaker 2: zero for three, and I wouldn't panic about this win
15:36
Speaker 2: total because I think they're such a young team. It's
15:38
Speaker 2: about how they progressed this season. So this is a
15:41
Speaker 2: team that I like. And I think, you know, the
15:44
Speaker 2: fact they're playing the last place schedule in this division,
15:47
Speaker 2: they got an easy schedule. So the fact that you know,
15:51
Speaker 2: this team somehow got the seven wins last year with
15:53
Speaker 2: everything that was going on, I don't think it's out
15:55
Speaker 2: of the run to think they can get the six
15:56
Speaker 2: wins with bon Knicks. I think this kid is what
16:00
Speaker 2: one of the oldest quarterbacks we've ever had come into
16:02
Speaker 2: the league, and he's exactly what Champagne wants. He wants
16:06
Speaker 2: an accurate, not really thinking kind of quarterback and that's
16:09
Speaker 2: exactly what bo Nicks does. He tells bon Nicks where
16:11
Speaker 2: to put the ball. He's been doing that. So everything
16:14
Speaker 2: I've read, everything I've seen from this team, I'm just
16:17
Speaker 2: excited about Denver. I think this win total is too low?
16:20
Speaker 2: Do you want me negative chat or should keep going?
16:22
Speaker 1: Bonnix is so old he might get my references.
16:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're crazy when you see his age compared to
16:29
Speaker 2: other starters in the league, and it's just like these
16:31
Speaker 2: guys have been in the league for four years and
16:33
Speaker 2: they're still younger than bo Knicks. All right, Well, ended
16:36
Speaker 2: on my last one, Chad, Chad knows is coming Vikings
16:40
Speaker 2: under this is another team that's six and a half.
16:43
Speaker 2: I mean, we're gonna talk about it. Convince me because
16:45
Speaker 2: I'm giving out this pick as well, and convince me.
16:47
Speaker 2: Make sure to check it out this Sunday.
16:49
Speaker 1: Also, I would say, I'm convinced me we're going to
16:53
Speaker 1: be talking about boon Nicks. There's with Raybond and Kerner
16:56
Speaker 1: and Simon, there is a lot of conversation about bo
16:58
Speaker 1: Knicks and his season passing totals.
17:02
Speaker 2: The Vikings are one of these teams that I was
17:05
Speaker 2: already coming in on because I just felt like just
17:07
Speaker 2: because of this division, they were already in a brutal
17:10
Speaker 2: spot because I had them fourth in this division, and
17:12
Speaker 2: I just where am I finding them wins? Like I
17:14
Speaker 2: tried as hard as I could have fund them wins
17:16
Speaker 2: and I had them going one to five in their
17:17
Speaker 2: division where they're one win was at home against the Bears.
17:20
Speaker 2: The rest of it, I just can't see. I think
17:22
Speaker 2: Green Bay is so much better than Detroit and even
17:25
Speaker 2: the Bears. Like if the Bears swept them, mean Chad
17:27
Speaker 2: would not be shocked. The pushback I'm getting from people
17:30
Speaker 2: is they're saying them underrating Kevin O'Connell. What is all
17:34
Speaker 2: this love for Kevin O'Connell. He literally turned Kirk Cousins
17:37
Speaker 2: from a five hundred and winning percentage quarterback with zero
17:39
Speaker 2: playoff wins into a five hundred winning playoff with zero wins.
17:43
Speaker 2: It's like, did he really make Kirk Cousins that much better?
17:46
Speaker 2: Is he really this QB whisper everyone thinks he is.
17:48
Speaker 2: I don't think he is. And now he has Sam
17:50
Speaker 2: Darnold come in here, who statistically is the worst quarterback
17:53
Speaker 2: since twenty eighteen against the spread. Like people keep thinking, well,
17:57
Speaker 2: maybe he'll take another step. He's had over fifty starts
18:00
Speaker 2: in the league. Sam Donald, he is what he is.
18:02
Speaker 2: People like this ain't Josh Allen. This isn't some freak
18:05
Speaker 2: gifted athlete that's gonna turn a corner.
18:07
Speaker 3: He is what he is.
18:08
Speaker 2: He'll be great for a quarter, dog shit for three quarters.
18:11
Speaker 2: Like maybe you'll have a great game, then you'll have
18:13
Speaker 2: three games in a row where you just can't put
18:15
Speaker 2: anything together, like this is what Sam Donald is. So
18:18
Speaker 2: the only hesitation for this team was the respect to
18:20
Speaker 2: Brian Forest, because I do think Flores is one of
18:23
Speaker 2: the best dseason all football, and what he did with
18:25
Speaker 2: this team last year was incredible. They've added some pieces,
18:28
Speaker 2: they are still a bottom thirty secondary. Like I don't care.
18:32
Speaker 2: They wouldn't got thirty four year old Stefan Gilmore Like
18:35
Speaker 2: that ain't moving the needle for me. Like they have
18:37
Speaker 2: major issues. Their number one corner went out with injury.
18:40
Speaker 2: Their third round pick passed away this offseason, who was
18:42
Speaker 2: supposed to be a cornerback.
18:43
Speaker 3: They've had really bad luck. We're trying to.
18:45
Speaker 2: Fill in this holes now. Their first round pick, their
18:48
Speaker 2: tenth pick overall, isn't even gonna play this season, So
18:51
Speaker 2: it's just it's all bad right now for them. Yeah,
18:54
Speaker 2: fantasy number wise, could it be fun with Jefferson, Sure,
18:57
Speaker 2: but we're talking win totals. They're over under. The under
19:00
Speaker 2: right now is plus one thirty. I love the under
19:03
Speaker 2: six and a half for this team, like I've taken
19:04
Speaker 2: there justin under. This is just a team that I
19:07
Speaker 2: can see struggling, especially out the gates. Like I know
19:09
Speaker 2: they start with the Giants, go look at the eight
19:11
Speaker 2: games they play after that. It's just a really tough
19:13
Speaker 2: schedule to start the season, especially when you're again your
19:16
Speaker 2: quarterback is Sam Darnold. So three positive, three overstad and
19:20
Speaker 2: one negative one under.
19:22
Speaker 1: I love that you're talking about the vikings. And by
19:25
Speaker 1: the way, if you're new to the show, please like
19:28
Speaker 1: and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page where we
19:32
Speaker 1: are live with this show every Tuesday, Thursday Sunday during
19:37
Speaker 1: the season. Like subscribe, Like subscribe, smash the button. Let's
19:42
Speaker 1: go the Minnesota Vikings of the two bets I made
19:46
Speaker 1: this weekend that you did not know about already that
19:48
Speaker 1: I was most excited about. The Vikings have been one
19:52
Speaker 1: that I kept looking at trying to find. You mentioned
19:54
Speaker 1: the under six and a half. I felt like I
19:56
Speaker 1: wasn't getting enough value even at minus one thirty on
20:00
Speaker 1: the under six and a.
20:00
Speaker 3: Half plus one thirty plus one thirty.
20:02
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean plus one thirty. I actually bet
20:06
Speaker 1: the under four and a half at like I forgot
20:09
Speaker 1: what the number was.
20:10
Speaker 3: Plus three plus two hundred some right, Yeah, it was plus.
20:13
Speaker 1: Three something, I think. And this is one I think
20:17
Speaker 1: you're gonna like. Minnesota Vikings worst record in the league,
20:23
Speaker 1: fifteen to one. It's interesting the teams they have above there.
20:27
Speaker 1: I think the Patriots are above them.
20:29
Speaker 2: That's probably a lot rights. That's why those odds have
20:33
Speaker 2: gone so stretch. Is just the money is poured in
20:36
Speaker 2: on Patriots to be the worst team of football.
20:38
Speaker 1: The Titans, the Patriots, the Panthers, Giants, all the Giants,
20:43
Speaker 1: they're all above the Vikings. And look, we talked about
20:45
Speaker 1: this during the previews, right, And this is why I
20:47
Speaker 1: love doing the previews so much, because it really makes
20:50
Speaker 1: us look at every single team in really minute detail. Yeah,
20:55
Speaker 1: you mentioned Sam Donald. We have no confidence in Sam Donald.
20:59
Speaker 1: The guy has been seeing ghosts since he said he
21:02
Speaker 1: was seeing ghosts his rookie year and nothing has changed.
21:05
Speaker 1: No one has fixed him. Kyle Shanahan is the best
21:09
Speaker 1: coach in the NFL. He cannot fix Sam Donald. They
21:13
Speaker 1: have the fifth hartist schedule in the NFL according to
21:17
Speaker 1: strength of schedule that we look at, which is based
21:20
Speaker 1: on projected season win totals. Their offensive line is mediocre.
21:26
Speaker 1: But if you have a mediocre offensive line, Christian Dereshaw
21:29
Speaker 1: huge contract, everyone else's replacement level. If you have a
21:33
Speaker 1: mediocre offensive line with a quarterback who sees ghost and
21:36
Speaker 1: his jittery, that is a recipe for disaster. Thirtieth ranked
21:42
Speaker 1: defensive line. They let Daniel Hunter go. Their best pass
21:48
Speaker 1: rusher is now Andrew van Ginkel, twenty nine years old,
21:54
Speaker 1: has generally been mad while playing for the Dolphins, battled injuries,
21:59
Speaker 1: is tire career, had one good season last year and
22:02
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, he's the replacement for a guy
22:05
Speaker 1: who has been getting fifteen, sixteen, seventeen sacks the last
22:08
Speaker 1: two or three years. And you also mentioned the schedule.
22:11
Speaker 1: Look through the first seven weeks, this team could be winless.
22:17
Speaker 1: They are slight favorites at the Giants. We have loved
22:21
Speaker 1: the Giants since they were about one and a half
22:22
Speaker 1: two point underdogs at home. Then they gotta go play
22:28
Speaker 1: the Niners, the Texans, the Packers, the Jets, the Lions,
22:34
Speaker 1: the Rams. Fifteen to one, worst record in the NFL.
22:40
Speaker 1: Give it to me.
22:42
Speaker 2: I love it?
22:43
Speaker 3: Now? Should I go with a positive side?
22:45
Speaker 2: Shash?
22:45
Speaker 3: I give out some chalky overs?
22:48
Speaker 1: All right, fine, all right?
22:50
Speaker 3: Number one we'll go in my favorite chalk is.
22:52
Speaker 2: One can say one things, hold on, hold on.
22:56
Speaker 1: I know you had a whole soliloquy about the Vikings,
22:59
Speaker 1: but I felt like my research and creativity on Vikings
23:04
Speaker 1: at fifteen to one for worst record deserved a little
23:08
Speaker 1: bit more compliments, attention recognition.
23:15
Speaker 3: Give me two if it hits in January.
23:16
Speaker 2: Brother, you want you an accomplishment like applause before anything
23:19
Speaker 2: even happens here.
23:20
Speaker 3: What are we talking about?
23:21
Speaker 1: Well, you know I like positive reinforcement.
23:23
Speaker 3: No, I love it. I mean you know I love it.
23:25
Speaker 3: I'm I just shit on the Viking.
23:26
Speaker 4: You love it?
23:26
Speaker 3: Five minutes?
23:27
Speaker 1: All I want to hear?
23:28
Speaker 2: There? You go? What it?
23:29
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, give me your give me your Chalky's.
23:33
Speaker 2: All right, it's no surprise anyone. I love the Eagles.
23:35
Speaker 2: Eagles over ten and a half. I just think this
23:37
Speaker 2: division's week. The Cowboys, I believe will take a step
23:40
Speaker 2: back from what they were last year, and Eagles had
23:43
Speaker 2: an epic choke job just to lose the division by
23:45
Speaker 2: one game last year. I think even if you take
23:48
Speaker 2: away a few wins from what they did last year,
23:52
Speaker 2: I still gain't see this team being any worse than
23:54
Speaker 2: twelve and five, eleven and six, and they're win throwing
23:56
Speaker 2: it right now. It's ten and a half, So no
23:58
Speaker 2: brainer for me. Just offensively, I think this team's a juggernaut.
24:04
Speaker 2: The questions will always be defensively, like their linebacking group,
24:09
Speaker 2: middle of the field, that is the question end of
24:11
Speaker 2: the day. Like you know, people are still worried about
24:13
Speaker 2: the Jalen Hurts and the whole blitz thing. Apparently that's
24:16
Speaker 2: all they've been working on a practice is him playing
24:18
Speaker 2: against the bullets. He threw win interceptions all training camp,
24:22
Speaker 2: Like clearly he's adjusted to that and he worked on
24:24
Speaker 2: that during the offseason. The fear here, if you're better
24:27
Speaker 2: the Eagles is is his secondary gonna be able to
24:29
Speaker 2: shut down these other teams where they struggled so much
24:31
Speaker 2: down the stretch. With Vic Vango, I think that will
24:34
Speaker 2: Like everything you read he gives the guys and trusting
24:37
Speaker 2: the freedom that gives them confidence. I think that's all
24:39
Speaker 2: the Eagles were lacking last year. They're lacking good coaching
24:42
Speaker 2: and confidence. Like you get to see they had zero
24:44
Speaker 2: confidence by the time they got the playoffs and played
24:46
Speaker 2: Tampa and and football.
24:48
Speaker 3: That's everything.
24:49
Speaker 2: Like you need to think you're the badest mofo in
24:51
Speaker 2: the field or you're you're done, like you just you're
24:53
Speaker 2: surrounded by killers. You got to be one yourself. So
24:56
Speaker 2: for my first one, my first chalky over, give me
24:59
Speaker 2: the Eagle over ten and a half.
25:01
Speaker 1: Can I say one thing? Yeah, I'm just gonna tease
25:04
Speaker 1: this very good chance you and I are doing something
25:10
Speaker 1: live in Philly before Thursday night game at the Link
25:16
Speaker 1: in November. I'm just going to say that now, just
25:19
Speaker 1: planting the seed for free Booze listeners of the show.
25:22
Speaker 3: Huh so free Booze Simon.
25:25
Speaker 1: I don't know what we're doing yet. I just know
25:26
Speaker 1: we're I just know you and I might be there
25:28
Speaker 1: together to talk to people's That was.
25:30
Speaker 2: Like the greatest part it ever we threw last year.
25:32
Speaker 2: So I'm just just checking, just checking. Let's keep let's
25:36
Speaker 2: keep going. These chalcovers, these chalkovers, give me the Lions
25:40
Speaker 2: ten and a half over, Hello Detroit. They to me
25:50
Speaker 2: they're the best in this division. We all know. I
25:52
Speaker 2: mean this. The stat's been said at nauseum. Their first
25:55
Speaker 2: outdoor game is Week sixteen against the Bears, Like you're
25:59
Speaker 2: giving me golf indoors with a better team they had
26:02
Speaker 2: last year with Ben Johnston. Like it's all there, Chad,
26:05
Speaker 2: Like the only thing that's going to stop this team
26:08
Speaker 2: is themselves, Like they have all the talent, they attack
26:11
Speaker 2: the secondary, that's where their biggest weakness was. They went
26:13
Speaker 2: out and try to improve it. I just love this team,
26:15
Speaker 2: like them, I might eventually have them above the Egles
26:19
Speaker 2: as the one seed. Like, say they roll the Rams
26:21
Speaker 2: Week one and the Eagles, I don't even care if
26:23
Speaker 2: the Egles won by twenty against Green Bay it's in Brazil, Like,
26:26
Speaker 2: I don't really take much from that game. Where Detroit
26:29
Speaker 2: at home with all these expectations, all this pressure, if
26:31
Speaker 2: they roll the Rams, can easily have them be my
26:34
Speaker 2: number one power of the team in the NFC. Like
26:35
Speaker 2: it's just it's all there for the Lions. I'm just
26:37
Speaker 2: so excited for them and their fan base.
26:39
Speaker 1: So it felt just so funny to bet the Lions
26:44
Speaker 1: for Super Bowl matchup, Like, even though we've talked about it, yeah,
26:47
Speaker 1: it's scared and foundationally, their offensive line and defensive line
26:51
Speaker 1: are ridiculous, which is really why we like them when
26:54
Speaker 1: we look deeper and see beyond the skill positions and
26:57
Speaker 1: the coaching like that, those like in the trenches, they're
27:00
Speaker 1: just too good.
27:02
Speaker 2: And I've had people ask why I haven't given out
27:04
Speaker 2: their Super Bowl future. Honestly, guys, I hate to be
27:08
Speaker 2: the one that's like say this and do this, but like,
27:10
Speaker 2: I haven't gotten over them. Blown. That's seventeen. They're up
27:13
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half lead to the forty nine ers, Like,
27:16
Speaker 2: I don't know if that's something they can just move
27:18
Speaker 2: past in the playoffs next year. Like that, to me,
27:21
Speaker 2: how's that not in the back of golf's heead next
27:23
Speaker 2: year in the playoffs? Like that's my hesitation, my fear
27:26
Speaker 2: with this Lions team, because I do think they could
27:28
Speaker 2: easily be the best in the NFCS. It's just, man,
27:31
Speaker 2: that's so much baggage to half Like you, they are
27:34
Speaker 2: up seventeen points in the NFC Championship game on the road,
27:38
Speaker 2: and they somehow almost lost by ten points in that game.
27:40
Speaker 2: So that that's my hesitation betting. There's super Bowl future, Chad,
27:45
Speaker 2: next one, next one. Here we go, people, we talked
27:50
Speaker 2: about it a lot. It's so boring, it's so chalky.
27:53
Speaker 2: How do we not take the Chiefs over eleven and
27:55
Speaker 2: a half? Like this is a team that had eleven
27:57
Speaker 2: wins last year in a season from hell, Like everything
28:00
Speaker 2: was so negative, everything was so wrong. People don't think
28:02
Speaker 2: that way because they had this incredible run the playoffs,
28:05
Speaker 2: but like, none of us were buying them, right, no one.
28:08
Speaker 2: I don't know anybody that was buying them coming out
28:10
Speaker 2: all the professionals. Everyone was all over the Ravens are
28:12
Speaker 2: the Bills. Those were the two best teams headed into
28:15
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They had played the best and into the
28:17
Speaker 2: playoffs we got Mahomes. Like Mahomes turned it on. This
28:21
Speaker 2: year is totally different, right, Like this year, to me,
28:23
Speaker 2: it's all there, like the fact they had it worthy
28:26
Speaker 2: we think this is last year, maybe not maybe another year,
28:29
Speaker 2: but the last year of Travis Kelce Like this to me,
28:31
Speaker 2: it feels like the old Tyreek offense with Mahomes, Like
28:35
Speaker 2: it's all there. I actually understand a little bit of
28:38
Speaker 2: hesitation people about their offensive line. I honestly don't have
28:41
Speaker 2: any issue of their offensive line. Then defensively, I mean,
28:45
Speaker 2: come on, like me and chat talk all the time
28:46
Speaker 2: about this defense. We love this defense. Spags is still there.
28:51
Speaker 2: We got no worry. So to me, eleven and a half.
28:53
Speaker 2: People don't like it to such a high win total.
28:56
Speaker 2: I got no issue with this. I think they're gonna
28:57
Speaker 2: be the one seed in the AFC. So this weak
29:00
Speaker 2: division they are in, come on, I gotta take this
29:03
Speaker 2: over At eleven and a half.
29:04
Speaker 1: Shad Chris Jones just has grown man strength. He just
29:07
Speaker 1: like he's a tone rucker. Love watching him play Who's
29:12
Speaker 1: Your Next?
29:13
Speaker 2: All right? So it's the last one. I never thought
29:16
Speaker 2: I would get there with this team. But it's a
29:18
Speaker 2: team that I don't know. It's like, how do we
29:22
Speaker 2: not take this. We've hyped them up, being chat to
29:24
Speaker 2: have a super Bowl future on them. It's the Cincinnati Bengals.
29:26
Speaker 2: Like I know, they have a high win total, It's
29:29
Speaker 2: in a really tough division. I'm betting on a guy
29:31
Speaker 2: that has a fifty to fifty chance of having his
29:33
Speaker 2: risk now fall apart midway through the season. But I
29:37
Speaker 2: love this Cincinnati team. This feels like it's the last
29:40
Speaker 2: year for it, right, Like, I'm all in on it.
29:42
Speaker 2: So it's either them or their Jets here. The reason
29:44
Speaker 2: I'm taking since a year is because the Jets juice
29:46
Speaker 2: now is up to like minus one seventy for their
29:48
Speaker 2: win total, Like it's just too high at this point,
29:51
Speaker 2: or at least since you still can get a nice
29:53
Speaker 2: low number. So if you want to take their over
29:55
Speaker 2: win total ten and a half, I love it. If
29:57
Speaker 2: you want to adjust it up to eleven and a half,
29:59
Speaker 2: and you know you we want that big plus number,
30:01
Speaker 2: you can go for it. But I'll just take there
30:02
Speaker 2: over at ten and a half. Cincinnati Bengals.
30:05
Speaker 1: Look, we've been on the Bengals all off season since
30:09
Speaker 1: the second Super Bowl futures came out. I'm a little
30:12
Speaker 1: bit anxious about it because it feels like there's a
30:14
Speaker 1: little bit more turmoil on that team than I would left.
30:16
Speaker 3: But this is their defensive side.
30:18
Speaker 2: There's a bunch of question marks, like there's it's fair
30:20
Speaker 2: to question this team.
30:22
Speaker 1: This is this you know, it's interesting. It's so funny.
30:27
Speaker 1: We didn't plan this, but you and I assignment are
30:30
Speaker 1: in such a mid season mind meld already. The reasons
30:35
Speaker 1: that your gross teams ended with the Vikings, and one
30:38
Speaker 1: of my favorite bets was Vikings fifteen to one, worst
30:42
Speaker 1: record in the league. Your Chalckey teams ended with the Bengals.
30:46
Speaker 1: My other favorite creative bet AFC North as a division
30:53
Speaker 1: most combined wins plus two twenty five. Here's how I
30:58
Speaker 1: think about it. Everybody is down on the Steelers right now,
31:01
Speaker 1: which is fine, Like that is a very trendy wise
31:04
Speaker 1: guy pick. Take the Steelers under their win total. It'll
31:07
Speaker 1: be the first time that Tomlin is finishing below five
31:10
Speaker 1: hundred meeting. He's not going to be five hundred or
31:13
Speaker 1: better in his entire career. He has done this with
31:16
Speaker 1: quarterbacks like Duck Hodges. He did it last year with
31:20
Speaker 1: a rotating cast and an offense that really didn't know
31:24
Speaker 1: how to move the ball, only because they had good
31:26
Speaker 1: plays on defense and kept themselves in games. But if
31:30
Speaker 1: you look at every other division, there is at least one,
31:33
Speaker 1: if not two, teams that could be four win teams.
31:37
Speaker 1: Right and so the NFC South, the Saints could be terrible,
31:42
Speaker 1: the Bucks could be terrible. In the AFC West, the
31:46
Speaker 1: Raiders could be terrible, the Broncos could be terrible. The
31:49
Speaker 1: Chargers could be terrible. In the NFC North, the Vikings
31:52
Speaker 1: could be terrible. In the NFC East, the Commanders or
31:56
Speaker 1: Giants could be terrible. Every single division has at least
31:58
Speaker 1: one or two teams that you think are suspect. Last year,
32:03
Speaker 1: the AFC North had the most wins by far. I
32:07
Speaker 1: don't think the Steelers greater. If they don't cover their
32:11
Speaker 1: season win total, it'll be six wins or seven wins
32:14
Speaker 1: or maybe eight wins. It's not going to be three wins.
32:17
Speaker 1: So to me, AFC North plus two twenty five most
32:20
Speaker 1: comment combined wins for a division.
32:22
Speaker 2: And if I'm just gonna steal Chad's bet, I made
32:24
Speaker 2: the same bet, but I did the NFC West. So
32:28
Speaker 2: that's a division. I'm just really hot. I mean, every
32:31
Speaker 2: pros high on it. Like that's the hardest part talking
32:33
Speaker 2: about division is either a Seahawks guy or our Cardinals
32:36
Speaker 2: guy or.
32:37
Speaker 3: Some crazy people.
32:38
Speaker 2: They're all three. They like the Rams, Cardinals, and the
32:41
Speaker 2: Seahawks where they're just super down the forty nine ers.
32:43
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's that's.
32:45
Speaker 2: Fundation if you if you want to hear out just
32:47
Speaker 2: two more future bets. I like divisional odds and then
32:50
Speaker 2: I'm cro on.
32:51
Speaker 1: What was your number on NFC West combined wins?
32:55
Speaker 2: It probably moved because I did bet this early August
32:57
Speaker 2: it was plus four hundred for them to have the
32:59
Speaker 2: best best rind, best record, most wins.
33:01
Speaker 1: I should say, all right, two more for you, buddy,
33:05
Speaker 1: all right.
33:06
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm not gonna give all the Chiefs, even
33:07
Speaker 2: though that's my favorite divisional bet. They're minus two to
33:10
Speaker 2: seventy now minus two to fifty at most books. So
33:13
Speaker 2: I already talked about if you want to take them
33:15
Speaker 2: and parlay them with another divisional winner. I've done a
33:17
Speaker 2: lot with this team about the mention. Yeer, it's the Eagles.
33:19
Speaker 2: Me and Chat I talk every year the star sixth season.
33:23
Speaker 2: We have gotten this division right every single year. And
33:26
Speaker 2: it's not because we are geniuses like I like to
33:28
Speaker 2: think we are. We simply just either picked the Cowboys
33:31
Speaker 2: and then we picked the Eagles the following year, then
33:33
Speaker 2: the Cowboys. Now this might be had last year of
33:35
Speaker 2: doing this, because I do think Washington or you know
33:38
Speaker 2: what Jaden Daniels could be, they could be the second
33:40
Speaker 2: best team this year or even the best team next year,
33:43
Speaker 2: like if he takes that CJ.
33:44
Speaker 3: Strout kind of step.
33:46
Speaker 2: No one will be shocked with Washington, but for this year,
33:50
Speaker 2: I just have no faith in Washington, don't. I like
33:53
Speaker 2: the Giants, but I can't see the Giants getting to
33:56
Speaker 2: eleven twelve wins, Like I just even though if I
33:59
Speaker 2: want to lie to myself, I can't make up the
34:01
Speaker 2: wins for them and get them to those that total.
34:04
Speaker 2: And then Cowboys me and chat talk about it's just
34:07
Speaker 2: all negative. Like everything about this team has just felt
34:10
Speaker 2: so negative come out of camp. You know, Dak has
34:14
Speaker 2: been the constant professional, like he's showed up all camp.
34:17
Speaker 2: I think he had one little bad moment where he
34:19
Speaker 2: was just like he couldn't help himself.
34:21
Speaker 3: But say he goes.
34:21
Speaker 2: You know, great quarterbacks have played in other teams, like
34:24
Speaker 2: Tom Brady left his team, like he basically let it
34:27
Speaker 2: be known that, like, you know, you don't give me
34:29
Speaker 2: the kind of money I want, I'm happy to walk.
34:32
Speaker 2: They haven't. I mean, we're not even what Chad nine
34:35
Speaker 2: days away from the season starting. He didn't get the contract.
34:38
Speaker 2: Like preseason's over, they're doing regular season practices at this point.
34:41
Speaker 2: So for me, the Cowboys, everything's so negative there that
34:45
Speaker 2: you know the fact that I can still get the
34:46
Speaker 2: Eagles on minus one twenty five at bet three sixty five.
34:49
Speaker 2: I love that value here. So if you, if you again,
34:52
Speaker 2: if you want to throw in the Chiefs and all these,
34:55
Speaker 2: I totally get it. Like I love the Chiefs so much,
34:57
Speaker 2: you're gonna pair them with the Eagles. I believe it's
34:59
Speaker 2: plus one if you pair them to parlay them to
35:02
Speaker 2: win their division. So yeah, give me the Eagles. I
35:06
Speaker 2: just they're the only team I have in this division
35:08
Speaker 2: over ten wins, like I have the Cowboys under at
35:10
Speaker 2: the nine and a half. So yeah, very confident in
35:13
Speaker 2: this pick and them coming out of this division winning
35:15
Speaker 2: at Chad.
35:18
Speaker 1: The one team we didn't talk about, the Colts twin
35:22
Speaker 1: the AFC.
35:25
Speaker 3: South South.
35:27
Speaker 1: I just blanked plus three forty right now, which I love.
35:32
Speaker 1: I like it better than the Jags. I like it
35:34
Speaker 1: better than the Texans. I know you're we're all gonna
35:36
Speaker 1: behind the Texans, but to me, that's a good sort
35:38
Speaker 1: of I feel like there's value there.
35:41
Speaker 2: There is.
35:42
Speaker 3: I finally got beat up Chad.
35:44
Speaker 2: I got jumped on this Houston thing and they beat
35:49
Speaker 2: it into me. Like I like Houston. Now I hate it.
35:52
Speaker 2: I wanted to fade Houston so bad. But I'm just
35:55
Speaker 2: I can't get over how good Cja is. Everything I've
35:57
Speaker 2: read and all the film I watch him in camp,
36:00
Speaker 2: he's incredible, Like he's so good. And their offensive line,
36:04
Speaker 2: we project them to be so much better than were
36:06
Speaker 2: last year. Again, they were their most injured offensive line
36:09
Speaker 2: in all football last season. They're fully healthy, right I
36:12
Speaker 2: headed into camp Defensively, I think that's the biggest thing
36:15
Speaker 2: we're not talking about Houston. I do think they're gonna
36:17
Speaker 2: take a big step defensively, like they just they've added
36:20
Speaker 2: the piece of that defense. Now they have two great
36:22
Speaker 2: pass rushers. Like, yeah, it's it's just all set up
36:25
Speaker 2: for Houston. So I'm trying hard try to stick to
36:28
Speaker 2: my love for the coach. I am so excited about them.
36:30
Speaker 2: I'm really high on Anthony Richardson, but it's a lot
36:34
Speaker 2: of unknowns. Like we've been on a guy that played
36:36
Speaker 2: what two and a half games in this league.
36:38
Speaker 3: Like I get.
36:39
Speaker 2: Hesitation by people, and I understand totally why Houston now
36:42
Speaker 2: is overwhelming favorite in this division.
36:44
Speaker 3: But yeah, it's it's tough.
36:47
Speaker 2: Like I just I didn't think I was gonna get
36:49
Speaker 2: there on Houston at this point. But like I just
36:52
Speaker 2: I can't keep denying what they have, Like they've done
36:55
Speaker 2: what I want teams to do. Right, Once you know
36:57
Speaker 2: you have the guy, you go and spend them money,
36:59
Speaker 2: Step Digs, Joe Mixon. Who knows if these guys will
37:02
Speaker 2: be absolute game changers, but I do know their improvement
37:05
Speaker 2: of what they had on last year.
37:07
Speaker 1: Right.
37:07
Speaker 2: If Stefan Diggs is your third receiver in Tank Dell's
37:10
Speaker 2: number two, that's an incredible luxury to have. Like that's
37:13
Speaker 2: I really literally can't wrap my head around how improved
37:16
Speaker 2: this team will be. So if you want to go
37:19
Speaker 2: out there and bet the nine and a half over,
37:20
Speaker 2: I totally get it. If you want to take our divisionalized,
37:22
Speaker 2: I totally get it. Like Chad just said, we bet
37:25
Speaker 2: the Colts here, so I haven't bought out my Colts position,
37:27
Speaker 2: But this is definitely what I'm getting weary on.
37:34
Speaker 1: It's come to that time, Simon, seven playoff teams, let's
37:38
Speaker 1: do it. Four conference championship teams, super Bowl matchup. Here
37:45
Speaker 1: we go, You're first, all.
37:48
Speaker 2: Right, I'm gonna go from seven to one starting the
37:50
Speaker 2: NFC number seven. My team Shocker, Arizona.
37:57
Speaker 3: They make it in chat. I love this team.
37:59
Speaker 2: I think they get to just sneak in, just like
38:02
Speaker 2: Green Big dead last year. You know, this is not
38:08
Speaker 2: gonna be too shocking. I actually have three teams from
38:10
Speaker 2: this division making the playoffs, number six forty nine ers,
38:14
Speaker 2: so I.
38:16
Speaker 3: Do think they'll take a step back.
38:17
Speaker 2: I think they've had so much drama this offseason that
38:20
Speaker 2: instead of being this juggernaut twelve twelve wins, I think
38:23
Speaker 2: they take a step back go to ten wins. So
38:25
Speaker 2: not too shocking there. Number five Green Bay. I want
38:29
Speaker 2: to hate on Green Bay and say they're not gonna
38:31
Speaker 2: make it. I took their under you know, barely put
38:34
Speaker 2: anything on it, just because I'm scared of Jordan Love
38:37
Speaker 2: and the floor. Like that's a great combo. If if
38:41
Speaker 2: Love is who we saw he was at the end
38:43
Speaker 2: of that season last year, if that just simply is
38:45
Speaker 2: who he is, come on, this has to be a
38:48
Speaker 2: playoff team. This this is gonna be a team flight
38:49
Speaker 2: for the division lead. Like that's how good he was
38:52
Speaker 2: at the end of the season. So my five spot
38:54
Speaker 2: went with Green Bay. Four seed. I hate it because
38:58
Speaker 2: it's so chalky, but I want with Atlanta. Chad. It's
39:01
Speaker 2: how can we not go Atlanta? Like They have the
39:04
Speaker 2: best offense in their division. They have the best defense
39:07
Speaker 2: in their division. And that's not saying much because their
39:09
Speaker 2: division is that bad, but that's how much better they
39:11
Speaker 2: are everyone else in their division. So I am skeptical
39:16
Speaker 2: of them just because it is Kirk Cousin coming off
39:18
Speaker 2: a major injury and they could start the season zero
39:20
Speaker 2: and three. I think that obviously wouldn't be that crazy
39:23
Speaker 2: to think. But overall, when you break down their full season,
39:27
Speaker 2: they should win this division. Like they should be favored,
39:29
Speaker 2: they should win this division. Number three, give me our
39:32
Speaker 2: old faithful the Rams. I love this team. I think
39:35
Speaker 2: they take another step this year. With everything going on
39:39
Speaker 2: with the forty nine ers, I could see them win
39:41
Speaker 2: this division, getting to eleven wins, ten wins, like, I
39:43
Speaker 2: think they could steal this division from this forty nine
39:46
Speaker 2: ers team that's happened so much turmoil right now. Number
39:50
Speaker 2: two we talked a nash about this team. I would
39:53
Speaker 2: have put them one seed if they didn't have such
39:55
Speaker 2: a hard division, but it's the Lions. Like the Lions,
39:57
Speaker 2: I do think they are probably the best team and
39:59
Speaker 2: then but I just couldn't get there just because are
40:02
Speaker 2: they really gonna swoop the Bears. Like, it's just it's
40:05
Speaker 2: hard for me to wrap my head around them doing
40:07
Speaker 2: that with the Bears again, like I think they'd split there.
40:09
Speaker 2: I have them splitting with Green Bay. So this is
40:12
Speaker 2: a team that because they are playing their first place schedule.
40:14
Speaker 3: I just don't have them being the one seed this year.
40:16
Speaker 2: And people know where I'm going the one seed Eagles
40:19
Speaker 2: easiest division. I think their schedule is easy as well
40:22
Speaker 2: because they didn't win the division last year.
40:24
Speaker 3: So it's all set up for the Eagles there.
40:26
Speaker 2: They get they brought in the coaching, they've added players
40:28
Speaker 2: to the second day, they've had it players on the
40:30
Speaker 2: offense like Sakwon Barkley. This is a team that should
40:33
Speaker 2: be the one seed at the end of the season
40:34
Speaker 2: for the NFC.
40:36
Speaker 1: Why Eagles fly, It's so funny. We're almost completely aligned,
40:42
Speaker 1: really close. Seventh, you have a off the radar wild
40:48
Speaker 1: card pick. I do as well. I'm going with the Panthers. Wow,
40:54
Speaker 1: And I just feel like that division is so bad.
40:57
Speaker 1: You really believe they have a chance to be a
41:00
Speaker 1: better team, and we are psyched about what we're seeing.
41:03
Speaker 1: We're one hundred percent we meet Im drinking the kool
41:06
Speaker 1: aid here, we're asking our listeners to do something as
41:10
Speaker 1: disgusting as we asked them to do all last year,
41:12
Speaker 1: which was continue to bet the Panthers. And by the way,
41:15
Speaker 1: by the way, the guy who won the contest last year,
41:17
Speaker 1: who visited us at one of our live shows, I'll
41:20
Speaker 1: never forget one. I believe he won by not taking
41:23
Speaker 1: our advice and putting the Panthers in his final five.
41:27
Speaker 3: That's the sap partise. He lost because you listen to us.
41:30
Speaker 2: He came in second, he lost first place. I wake
41:33
Speaker 2: up in cold sweats in the middle of the night
41:35
Speaker 2: think of him.
41:35
Speaker 1: Dude.
41:35
Speaker 3: It's terrible.
41:36
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that's awful. That's even worse.
41:39
Speaker 3: I really cost this kid forty dollars.
41:41
Speaker 2: I hate it.
41:42
Speaker 1: Oh my god, that is terrible. Panthers seven. I have
41:47
Speaker 1: the Rams six. Interesting to me, so okay, Ram six Packers,
41:52
Speaker 1: five Falcons four. I had the Niners three, yeah, Lions,
41:57
Speaker 1: two Eagles one. So basically you and I are are
42:00
Speaker 1: you know, you have the Cardinals, I've the Panthers, and
42:02
Speaker 1: we're flipped on the Niners and the Rams.
42:04
Speaker 2: Yeah.
42:05
Speaker 1: I believe the rent the Niners have the benefit of
42:07
Speaker 1: the doubt here, and so that's really why I did it,
42:11
Speaker 1: but fascinating, fascinating how close we are on this. Also
42:14
Speaker 1: fascinating Cowboys know uh and you have three NFC West to.
42:27
Speaker 2: You're like me. You had two new playoff teams from
42:29
Speaker 2: last year, right, we dropped out Dallas.
42:32
Speaker 1: Cowboys and who else.
42:39
Speaker 2: I'm blanking Bucks Bucks, so those two makes sense to
42:45
Speaker 2: drop out Box.
42:46
Speaker 1: Also, by the way, if you can find it, Bucks
42:50
Speaker 1: to finish last in the NFC South, Bucks under seven
42:54
Speaker 1: and a half. If you listened to our luck ranking
42:57
Speaker 1: show with Nick Giffin, he is all over those doctor Nay,
43:00
Speaker 1: brilliant guy luck rankings. You all know how much we
43:03
Speaker 1: love the luck rankings. All right, AFC, I'm gonna go first.
43:07
Speaker 1: Are you ready?
43:08
Speaker 3: See?
43:09
Speaker 1: I have a surprise here. I have a surprise here,
43:13
Speaker 1: Jags seventh, I have the Texans sixth. Wow, I have
43:26
Speaker 1: the Ravens fifth, I have the Colts fourth. Three AFC
43:37
Speaker 1: South teams.
43:39
Speaker 4: This is the year.
43:40
Speaker 1: This is the year it turns for the AFC South.
43:42
Speaker 1: They go from the team the division that we don't
43:45
Speaker 1: care about, that nobody knows their teams and nobody listens
43:48
Speaker 1: to their games or watches their games. They are the
43:51
Speaker 1: epitome of corner TV teams. This is the year that changes.
43:57
Speaker 1: I was at four, the Jets at four, Jets of
44:03
Speaker 1: the Try, the Colts were four. I have the Jets
44:07
Speaker 1: at three, I have the Bangles at two, and I
44:13
Speaker 1: have the Chiefs at one.
44:16
Speaker 3: I love it.
44:17
Speaker 2: I think we're pretty old lined here, Chad. We're pretty
44:20
Speaker 2: line going into this season here. Brother. I also had
44:23
Speaker 2: the Jaguars at seven. It's just had the raw deal
44:28
Speaker 2: last year if Lawrence.
44:29
Speaker 3: Was banged up.
44:30
Speaker 2: They're not as bad as people perceive. I think, you know,
44:32
Speaker 2: this team getting nine wins ten wins this upcoming year,
44:36
Speaker 2: not that shocking seeing them limping as the seventh seed
44:38
Speaker 2: number six, even though on down on them, I still
44:41
Speaker 2: think the Ravens make the playoffs. Like, I still think
44:43
Speaker 2: there's enough there that this team will make the playoffs.
44:47
Speaker 2: Number five. I'm shocked that Chad I didn't talk about
44:51
Speaker 2: have him in his list. The Bills, man, I still
44:53
Speaker 2: think the Bills with Josh Allen still will be one
44:57
Speaker 2: of the better teams in football, Like with Joe Brady,
44:59
Speaker 2: everything that team is. I still got them getting over
45:02
Speaker 2: their wintows, so I still think they'll have eleven wins.
45:04
Speaker 2: So I think they'll be the fifth seed. Fourth seed Houston.
45:08
Speaker 2: Chad just stalked about it, like I love this team.
45:12
Speaker 2: They're just so good and it's just like I can't
45:14
Speaker 2: see them not taking a step, Like there's just nothing
45:16
Speaker 2: in CJ's game that I'm just you know, I'm not again,
45:19
Speaker 2: I'm not making them the two seed here because I
45:21
Speaker 2: do think like Chad just talk about, I think their
45:23
Speaker 2: division is better than people realize. But yeah, the four
45:26
Speaker 2: seed just makes sense for them. Three seed Cincinnati, Chad
45:29
Speaker 2: talked about, we're all in on this team, last place schedule,
45:33
Speaker 2: they should win this division like they are. This is
45:36
Speaker 2: the team, this is their year because next year they're
45:38
Speaker 2: gonna be they're gonna be worse. Like it really is
45:40
Speaker 2: that Joe Burrow when he's gonna start catching up to them,
45:42
Speaker 2: especially when now they have to pay Jamar Chase, Like
45:45
Speaker 2: it just feels like this is the year for since
45:47
Speaker 2: he so give me the three seed, how can I
45:50
Speaker 2: not put the Jets of the two seed, Like just
45:52
Speaker 2: looking at their schedule, everything about them, Rogers Stay is
45:56
Speaker 2: fully healthy. It's like this this is the team one seed,
46:00
Speaker 2: just like twenty twenty two, Chad, I got the Chiefs
46:02
Speaker 2: as the one seed. So both the Eagles and the
46:04
Speaker 2: Chiefs are the one seed in my rankings.
46:06
Speaker 1: Well, look, we're like you said, the biggest difference for
46:10
Speaker 1: us right now is Colts and Bills. I think the
46:13
Speaker 1: Colts take a massive step forward, and I think when
46:16
Speaker 1: I look at it, I don't think there's two teams
46:19
Speaker 1: from the AFC East coming out of it. So I
46:23
Speaker 1: went with the Jets. All right, those are seven and
46:27
Speaker 1: seven and seven and seven. Give me your four, your matchup,
46:32
Speaker 1: and your winner.
46:34
Speaker 2: I'll give you my final four, then my Super Bowl winner, Chad.
46:37
Speaker 2: So my final four. I went with my two favorite teams.
46:42
Speaker 2: Eagles versus the Rams. I just I love the Rams,
46:45
Speaker 2: especially in the playoffs. I just think Kase Stafford's been there.
46:48
Speaker 2: Last year against the Lions, they lost by what a
46:50
Speaker 2: point on the road in that game, like it was
46:53
Speaker 2: just right there, and they literally got bullied in that game.
46:55
Speaker 2: If people don't remember it, Detroit, they just beat the
46:58
Speaker 2: crap out. I mean Pooko almost died. Game like. That
47:00
Speaker 2: was just an incredible battle. So to MEI the Rams
47:03
Speaker 2: or their battle tested now with all these young guys,
47:06
Speaker 2: I like them taking that next step. So Eagles versus
47:08
Speaker 2: the Rams. Then they got the Chiefs versus Cincinnati in
47:11
Speaker 2: the AFC matchup.
47:14
Speaker 3: Not much to say here.
47:14
Speaker 2: People know like, we love Joe Burrow, we love my Homes,
47:18
Speaker 2: we think they're two of the best teams in the AFCs.
47:20
Speaker 3: Just I wanted to get Houston in this spot.
47:23
Speaker 2: I just couldn't get there. I can't can't pull myself
47:26
Speaker 2: to see them upsetting either one of these quarterbacks. I
47:28
Speaker 2: just think, you know, Joe Burrow is the ball, last
47:31
Speaker 2: moments of the ball last I can see them both
47:33
Speaker 2: being out. Those kind of guys. So my finals Chiefs
47:38
Speaker 2: winning over the Eagles once again in the Super Bowl.
47:41
Speaker 2: If to win three straight and you can get that
47:43
Speaker 2: right now at fifty five to one on bet three
47:45
Speaker 2: sixty five, Chiefs beating the Eagles in the Super Bowl,
47:48
Speaker 2: I just think it's there. They're both gonna be the
47:50
Speaker 2: one seeds if they're both at home. Like if the
47:54
Speaker 2: Lions got to come to Philadelphia in mid January, if
47:57
Speaker 2: Purdy has to come to Phildelphia in mid January, I
48:01
Speaker 2: just think the Eagles should win that game. The only
48:03
Speaker 2: hesitation I just talked about is the Rams, Like I
48:04
Speaker 2: think of all the guys that wouldn't be phased about
48:07
Speaker 2: that kind of environment, is Stafford. But yeah, I have
48:10
Speaker 2: the Eagles winning it then versus the Chiefs. The Chiefs
48:13
Speaker 2: winning the Eagles in the super Bowl. It's just Chad knows.
48:15
Speaker 2: I love ben on history. I want to be part
48:17
Speaker 2: of history. It's just it's one of my favorite things.
48:19
Speaker 2: And this is the team to do it. Like, It's
48:21
Speaker 2: just the Super Bowl team always gets a little weaker.
48:24
Speaker 2: I mean we're seeing it right now with the forty
48:25
Speaker 2: nine ers. They call that drama they're having to deal with.
48:27
Speaker 1: Yeah.
48:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't
48:30
Speaker 2: they don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there.
48:32
Speaker 2: So the boring bet, I know, But Chiefs winning the
48:36
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, That's where I'm going.
48:37
Speaker 1: Chad, uh I had Bengals, Chiefs, I had Lions, Eagles.
48:45
Speaker 1: I went Chiefs Lions in the Super Bowl. So I
48:49
Speaker 1: feel like, unlike you the seventeen point blown lead, this
48:56
Speaker 1: is not a team that has coward when they have
49:00
Speaker 1: faced adversity as a team that has come back, they
49:03
Speaker 1: are not afraid to be intellectually honest about what their
49:07
Speaker 1: challenges are and what they need to improve. And I
49:11
Speaker 1: would bet. Dan Campbell uses that all season long, and
49:15
Speaker 1: when it is time to face adversity and face down
49:20
Speaker 1: that fear, the Lions will roar. So they will play
49:25
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and they will lose,
49:28
Speaker 1: but that's fine. They will get to the Super Bowl.
49:31
Speaker 1: Chiefs lines twenty eight to one. Chiefs Eagles is a
49:34
Speaker 1: matchup is twenty eight to one. All right? That was
49:38
Speaker 1: that was tremendous. The only thing that can top that
49:41
Speaker 1: right now is when we bring back in. Evan Abrams,
49:45
Speaker 1: director of research, has got up some very interesting data.
49:49
Speaker 1: We have concerns about Trent Williams and the Niners. We
49:52
Speaker 1: have talked a lot about the Jets. He has stuff
49:54
Speaker 1: on Aaron Rodgers. We also are going to talk a
49:56
Speaker 1: little bit about Dennis Allen, who we think is the
49:58
Speaker 1: biggest joke of a coach in the NFL, A in
50:00
Speaker 1: NFL history. Evan, it's like it's Thursdays during the season
50:04
Speaker 1: all over again. Rock them, sock them.
50:07
Speaker 2: Oh they're talking.
50:08
Speaker 3: They discuss in the podcast.
50:11
Speaker 4: Try to light the fire, the bellas what's up?
50:15
Speaker 2: Uh so excited?
50:17
Speaker 4: Pumpkin fall. It's all here, but let's keep going. Trent
50:20
Speaker 4: Williams is where We're gonna start because you talked about
50:22
Speaker 4: him earlier. I'm gonna keep this super simple, so obviously
50:25
Speaker 4: questionable for that Week one game with the Jets, San
50:28
Speaker 4: Francisco's lost five consecutive games straight up where either Williams
50:31
Speaker 4: hasn't played or played fewer than fifty percent of offensive snaps.
50:35
Speaker 4: Good stat, better stat would be here's how San Francisco
50:39
Speaker 4: scored in those five games twenty nineteen, seventeen, seventeen, and fourteen.
50:45
Speaker 4: To me, that's probably the issue, not so much the
50:48
Speaker 4: games lost or whatever that may be, but also this
50:52
Speaker 4: one San Francisco was twenty one and two straight up.
50:55
Speaker 4: In the games Williams has played over fifty percent of
50:58
Speaker 4: snaps in that span, So pretty blanketed stat and obviously
51:02
Speaker 4: how important he is, and the AU part as well,
51:04
Speaker 4: because I believe Ayu missed one or two of those
51:06
Speaker 4: same games that Yeah, so I think it's a combination
51:12
Speaker 4: of everything, but he is utterly important. Now let's get
51:15
Speaker 4: to our favorite head coach. We all love Dennis Allen.
51:18
Speaker 2: Oh no, we suck again.
51:21
Speaker 4: But let's let let's let's start here. So he's coached
51:24
Speaker 4: five seasons in the NFL with the Raiders, and the Saints.
51:27
Speaker 4: His teams are five and oh to the under on
51:29
Speaker 4: their win total. Fantastic. We love hearing that. But in
51:32
Speaker 4: his coaching career, he is twenty four and forty six
51:35
Speaker 4: straight up. That's thirty four percent worst of all active
51:39
Speaker 4: head coaches. He's coached seventy games. He's twenty two games
51:42
Speaker 4: below five hundred. Only four other head coaches have really
51:46
Speaker 4: ever done that in that span. Now, the last note
51:50
Speaker 4: on him, he is five and fifteen straight up in
51:52
Speaker 4: the first four weeks of the season. That is the
51:54
Speaker 4: third worst on the money line in the last twenty years.
51:57
Speaker 4: Dus Bradley, John Fox, Dennis aut I think, listen, the
52:01
Speaker 4: Panthers are what they are. We're gonna go back and forth.
52:04
Speaker 4: The entire company likes Carolina, but I think in week
52:07
Speaker 4: one it is a good number, and I like them
52:10
Speaker 4: as well. So that's the Dennis Allen situation. Next December twelfth,
52:15
Speaker 4: twenty twenty one, and he guesses what that date represents.
52:19
Speaker 4: Mad he actually asking you. I'm gonna answer it myself.
52:21
Speaker 4: It's actually a thousand days prior to the twenty twenty
52:25
Speaker 4: four Monday Night opener. It'll be Aaron Rodgers' last three
52:28
Speaker 4: hundred yard passing game, also his last four touchdown game,
52:31
Speaker 4: and it did come against the Bear. Sorry, Chad, but
52:34
Speaker 4: since he is just twelve and eleven straight up, ten
52:38
Speaker 4: and thirteen against the spread. Now that includes a lucky
52:41
Speaker 4: win in the game he went down against Buffalo. But
52:44
Speaker 4: more than that, just talking about who Aaron Rodgers is
52:47
Speaker 4: as a quarterback. Since that three hundred yard game, he's
52:50
Speaker 4: basically the same pass success rate as Desmond Ritter, with
52:54
Speaker 4: the same number of interceptions and just forty more attempts.
52:58
Speaker 4: Now we talk about EPA per play. In EPA per play.
53:02
Speaker 4: Since that three hundred yard game, he is surrounded by
53:04
Speaker 4: Ryan Tannehill.
53:05
Speaker 2: And Baker Mayfield.
53:06
Speaker 4: That just might be whoe Aaron Rodgers is. Yeah, but
53:10
Speaker 4: we're gonna see, We're gonna see. Now, finally I'll go
53:14
Speaker 4: to Sam Darnald. Now, Simon's used a bunch of these stats.
53:17
Speaker 4: We know Chad loves Minnesota to be terrible this year,
53:20
Speaker 4: but he is twenty two thirty three and one against
53:22
Speaker 4: his bread his NFL career. That is the fourth least
53:25
Speaker 4: profitable of any quarterback since he started. It's Matt Ryan,
53:29
Speaker 4: Derek Carr, Carson Wentz and then Sam Darnald. But I
53:34
Speaker 4: think more importantly he is twenty one and thirty five
53:37
Speaker 4: straight up as a starter, sixteen and twenty six as
53:40
Speaker 4: a dog, five and nine as a favorite, nine and
53:43
Speaker 4: nineteen on the road, twelve and sixteen at home. I
53:47
Speaker 4: can't find a single thing he wins games in. Now,
53:51
Speaker 4: this is the one that really got me. Seven and
53:54
Speaker 4: fourteen straight up versus teams below five hundred. So even
53:58
Speaker 4: in scenarios where he supposed to win, and maybe his
54:02
Speaker 4: team behind him isn't the best, still not coming through. Now,
54:05
Speaker 4: I'll give you one more on Donald. Since two thousand
54:09
Speaker 4: ninety one quarterbacks have had fifteen hundred pass attempts, puts
54:12
Speaker 4: him into a category of players who have actually played.
54:16
Speaker 4: Here's Donald's ranks of those ninety one qbs sixty sixth
54:20
Speaker 4: in completion percentage, seventy second in yards per attempt seventy
54:24
Speaker 4: fifth and sack percentage seventy seventh, in touchdown percentage eightieth
54:29
Speaker 4: in past right success, it just might be Sam Donald.
54:33
Speaker 4: I don't know what else to say there, and I'll
54:35
Speaker 4: add with a little question for you. So right now,
54:39
Speaker 4: the longest season win total understreak, so basically under your
54:43
Speaker 4: win total in consecutive years. The longest streak goes to
54:46
Speaker 4: the Chargers at five, then the Broncos at four, then
54:50
Speaker 4: Chicago and Washington at three. We already know you kind
54:53
Speaker 4: of like Denver, But what are your thoughts on those
54:55
Speaker 4: four teams? You think any of them go over this year?
54:58
Speaker 3: Me and chat cusp, No, check.
55:00
Speaker 2: It kind of like the Chargers, and I've definitely thrown
55:02
Speaker 2: cold water on them. I just I can't get behind
55:04
Speaker 2: them yet. Man, that's an ugly list. That is an
55:08
Speaker 2: ugly list, Chad.
55:10
Speaker 1: It is really terrible. I don't think any of them do.
55:14
Speaker 1: I mean that the Bears expectations are so freaking high,
55:17
Speaker 1: They're off the charts high. You can't responsibly bet on
55:22
Speaker 1: them going over their season win total. I don't like
55:24
Speaker 1: any of them. That's for Washington.
55:25
Speaker 4: For me, those would be the two options. I think
55:27
Speaker 4: Washington could surprise people this year. I think a lot
55:30
Speaker 4: of us like Denver in the spot because I think
55:32
Speaker 4: get you like the Raiders. I think other people have
55:34
Speaker 4: a little bit different opinions, and I think a lot
55:35
Speaker 4: of people are down on the Chargers, which kind of
55:38
Speaker 4: just leaves Denver to win just enough.
55:39
Speaker 1: Games to go over Evan Abrams.
55:41
Speaker 4: Thanks fellows.
55:42
Speaker 1: Great to have you back, brother, great to have you back. Listen.
55:46
Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody go sign up for the
55:49
Speaker 1: Favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Them contest.
55:54
Speaker 1: It's free people. We are going to give away one
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Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars. All you got to do is pick
56:02
Speaker 1: five games every week and you got a chance to
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Speaker 1: do it. We're not asking you for money, We're not
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Speaker 1: asking you for anything. Just go make the freaking picks. Favorites.
56:14
Speaker 1: Dot to actionnetwork dot com is the sign up do
56:19
Speaker 1: your thing, all right. I had mentioned Matt Mitchell pulled
56:24
Speaker 1: a long con on me all last football season with
56:28
Speaker 1: an ad reag prank that took him months to execute.
56:34
Speaker 1: I'm gonna bring in Matt Mitchell to explain the con
56:38
Speaker 1: that he pulled on me, and listen, kudos to him
56:43
Speaker 1: because he worked this and stage straight faced for months
56:49
Speaker 1: while I made a fool of myself.
56:51
Speaker 3: Okay, last, but not least, Uncle Mitch ched.
56:54
Speaker 5: You and I have been working together now for a
56:57
Speaker 5: seventh NFL season, and like a lot of our talent,
57:01
Speaker 5: you're a real busy guy. You're busy being an executive
57:04
Speaker 5: doing meetings and such. You know, a lot of our
57:06
Speaker 5: maniacs eximon are busy with you know, handicapping Sam Houston
57:10
Speaker 5: State or MLB stuff plus rates or whatever. And like
57:13
Speaker 5: a lot of our talent, you're also made to do
57:16
Speaker 5: ad reads by me for our network. Unlike the rest
57:19
Speaker 5: of our talent, though, I learned that you will read
57:23
Speaker 5: absolutely anything I put in front of you, Ron Burgundy
57:26
Speaker 5: style with almost no feedback. You'll just knock it out
57:29
Speaker 5: and you're onto the next thing, which is a gift,
57:32
Speaker 5: and I do appreciate that. Unfortunately, I did decide to
57:35
Speaker 5: take advantage of that, and over basically a full calendar year,
57:38
Speaker 5: anytime we had a real adread to do, I would
57:42
Speaker 5: also write and make you read a second entirely phony
57:45
Speaker 5: and increasingly ludicrous adread, which you would happily knock out
57:51
Speaker 5: with almost no feedback whatsoever. And once we'd gotten a
57:55
Speaker 5: lot of them, we cut them together into a montage
57:58
Speaker 5: that Simon has now seen for the first time. Ocasi
58:01
Speaker 5: skips all company meetings, and I just want to say,
58:05
Speaker 5: I'm really proud of you, and we'll play it right
58:07
Speaker 5: now so everyone can can have the context. Please enjoy
58:10
Speaker 5: Chad reading entirely fabricated sponsorship reads.
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1:00:14
Speaker 2: Would you think I loved it? I mean obviously as
1:00:19
Speaker 2: someone that's watching it. It's like, how does this guy
1:00:21
Speaker 2: not know that these things are fake? But the biggest
1:00:24
Speaker 2: one is the Dalton King Kaid. I mean, how does
1:00:26
Speaker 2: he not know that this guy is starting tight end
1:00:29
Speaker 2: for Matt Mitchell's favorite team, the Buffalo bill So that
1:00:32
Speaker 2: one cracked me up.
1:00:33
Speaker 3: Him selling seafood.
1:00:36
Speaker 5: Seafood express right freshness, Ahoy for sure.
1:00:39
Speaker 1: Yeah, listen A, I'm a professional. If someone is paying us,
1:00:45
Speaker 1: I give it my all.
1:00:46
Speaker 2: That's true.
1:00:47
Speaker 1: I read it with enthusiasm. I respect Matt Mitchell's time.
1:00:51
Speaker 1: I respect Matt Mitchell as the producer of the show.
1:00:54
Speaker 1: If he says we got to read, I say, great,
1:00:57
Speaker 1: I'm going to go in. I'm going to read it
1:00:59
Speaker 1: with gust The words I don't know what they are.
1:01:02
Speaker 1: I am just reading them with GUSTA. Matt Mitchell, you
1:01:06
Speaker 1: disrespect in my time and my talent. This might be
1:01:10
Speaker 1: the last year you ever do.
1:01:11
Speaker 5: Yeah, it would be worth it, because I will say
1:01:13
Speaker 5: one Ying Yang Twins, if you're listening, we'd love to
1:01:16
Speaker 5: get in business with you. You guys are the best.
1:01:19
Speaker 5: My wife loved that read the most. I'll also note
1:01:21
Speaker 5: that a couple of times when you'd stumble in them,
1:01:26
Speaker 5: you'd go like, oh, this is kind of a weird one.
1:01:28
Speaker 5: I'd want to totally crack up and lose it. So
1:01:31
Speaker 5: I would react to that by just shouting at you
1:01:34
Speaker 5: because that was I need to react in a big
1:01:36
Speaker 5: way to cover that I was laughing. So I'd be like,
1:01:38
Speaker 5: shut up, Chad, just finish reading it, and you'd be like, okay,
1:01:41
Speaker 5: Jesus all right. So uh yeah, I almost lost it
1:01:43
Speaker 5: a couple of times, but we, uh we stuck the landing.
1:01:46
Speaker 5: I'm proud of you, and I look forward to taking
1:01:48
Speaker 5: advantage of you in a similar way when you're least
1:01:51
Speaker 5: suspecting it in the future.
1:01:53
Speaker 1: Your suspect Matt Mitchell, and I am onto you. I
1:01:56
Speaker 1: will be questioning everything from now on. Before we wrap
1:02:01
Speaker 1: up today's final preseason episode one, final bonus for you guys.
1:02:06
Speaker 1: Last episode, we had on Stucky and Colin Wilson to
1:02:10
Speaker 1: talk college football last week a there highly rated podcast
1:02:16
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus. Stucky and Colin were joined by
1:02:19
Speaker 1: our college Football inside our bette McMurphy, and he was
1:02:23
Speaker 1: browbeaten by Matt Mitchell to share a very personal story
1:02:28
Speaker 1: he never shared on air before. We all enjoyed it
1:02:33
Speaker 1: so much that we've clipped the story he told on BBOC.
1:02:37
Speaker 1: We're going to play it for you now, please enjoy.
1:02:42
Speaker 6: I guess I'm about to hijack the rest of this conversation.
1:02:46
Speaker 6: This has nothing to do with football. How's that for
1:02:47
Speaker 6: a tease? June twentieth, nineteen seventy nine, I thought I
1:02:53
Speaker 6: was going to die.
1:02:54
Speaker 2: I boarded flight.
1:02:55
Speaker 6: Two ninety three, and so did a guy named Nikola Caba.
1:03:00
Speaker 6: He's from Yugoslavia. I found out later that he had
1:03:03
Speaker 6: killed more than seventeen people in his life. He committed
1:03:06
Speaker 6: his first murder when he was fourteen. He threw a
1:03:08
Speaker 6: wounded German soldier down a well. In November of seventy eight,
1:03:13
Speaker 6: he was arrested for bombing a Chicago home of a diplomat.
1:03:17
Speaker 6: Convicted in May of seventy nine in Chicago, but released
1:03:20
Speaker 6: on bailed in New Jersey, where he was living. A
1:03:23
Speaker 6: month later. He was on my American Airlines flight from
1:03:26
Speaker 6: LaGuardia to Chicago. Then I would go from Chicago to
1:03:29
Speaker 6: Oklahoma City. I had been in Europe with a group
1:03:33
Speaker 6: of high school seniors from Yukon, Oklahoma, and we were
1:03:37
Speaker 6: coming back from that trip. He had smuggled a homemade
1:03:40
Speaker 6: bomb onto the plane plastic explosives. Midway through our flight,
1:03:44
Speaker 6: he took over control of the plane and sat in
1:03:47
Speaker 6: the stewardess jump seat outside the cockpit and held on
1:03:51
Speaker 6: to these little looked like tubes of toothpaste in his hands.
1:03:55
Speaker 6: Flight attendants never told us we were hijacked. Eventually they
1:03:58
Speaker 6: said that he had taken control of the plane. We
1:04:02
Speaker 6: land in Chicago. As soon as we land, you know,
1:04:05
Speaker 6: usually go up to the gate or whatever. We just
1:04:08
Speaker 6: sat on the runway. We did not move. We sat
1:04:11
Speaker 6: there and sat there, and sat there. We sat there
1:04:13
Speaker 6: for eleven hours. Eleven hours.
1:04:17
Speaker 2: I was in the.
1:04:18
Speaker 6: First row of coach, so there was a bulkhead between
1:04:20
Speaker 6: first class and coach. I was in the first row
1:04:23
Speaker 6: of coach on the aisle, and I had a little
1:04:25
Speaker 6: instamatic camera and I would literally lean into the aisle
1:04:29
Speaker 6: and take a real quick snap of the hijacker. I
1:04:32
Speaker 6: didn't have the flash on. I didn't want them to
1:04:34
Speaker 6: see me. But out the window till my right there
1:04:37
Speaker 6: were you know, policemen swat whatever, crawling on their bellies
1:04:42
Speaker 6: through the field. I'm not exaggerating. There were one hundred
1:04:45
Speaker 6: police cars, ambulances, fire trucks during this whole time.
1:04:49
Speaker 2: You know, as a high school journalist, I'm.
1:04:51
Speaker 6: Actually taking notes on a little you know, the paper
1:04:54
Speaker 6: napkins they give you. I'm writing down notes of what
1:04:57
Speaker 6: all is going on. Like in my seventeen year old mind,
1:05:00
Speaker 6: I'm thinking, well, if the plane blows up, this little
1:05:02
Speaker 6: piece of paper is going to survive and it will
1:05:05
Speaker 6: solve everything. Everyone will know what happened. Side note on
1:05:09
Speaker 6: me trying to take photos of the hijacker.
1:05:12
Speaker 3: After we got off the.
1:05:13
Speaker 6: Plane, the authorities asked us if any of us had
1:05:16
Speaker 6: pictures of the hijacker, and myself and a parent that
1:05:20
Speaker 6: went with us did so. I gave the police my
1:05:23
Speaker 6: camera and my film well during the whole process. Afterwards,
1:05:27
Speaker 6: I talked to somebody with the Associated Press. They said
1:05:30
Speaker 6: they would buy my film for a thousand dollars. I
1:05:32
Speaker 6: said great. A couple days later they called me at
1:05:35
Speaker 6: home and they say that they are no longer have
1:05:38
Speaker 6: any interest in my film. So basically what I'm saying is, yeah, Ap,
1:05:42
Speaker 6: you stiffed me one thousand dollars. If you can figure
1:05:45
Speaker 6: out what the compounded interest is for forty five years, please.
1:05:49
Speaker 2: Let me know.
1:05:50
Speaker 6: Basically, he led us off. After eleven hours. They pulled
1:05:54
Speaker 6: stairs up to the plane. We walked off down the
1:05:57
Speaker 6: flight of stairs.
1:05:58
Speaker 3: It was weird.
1:05:59
Speaker 6: During the whole time, I never really thought I was
1:06:01
Speaker 6: going to die or anything that was going to happen,
1:06:03
Speaker 6: because the flight attendants did a great job keeping everybody
1:06:06
Speaker 6: call them and stuff. But when they opened the door
1:06:09
Speaker 6: to get off the plane. Since I was first row
1:06:12
Speaker 6: a coach, I was when one of the first ones off,
1:06:13
Speaker 6: and literally when I saw the mass of people and
1:06:17
Speaker 6: news truck, I mean, just everything out there cliche, but
1:06:20
Speaker 6: it looked like a movie. I mean, I lost it. Man,
1:06:27
Speaker 6: start crying out. That's that's that's probably. That's when I
1:06:33
Speaker 6: started crying and realized what could have happened. We go
1:06:37
Speaker 6: back to the airport. It's funny when we get to
1:06:40
Speaker 6: the airport, obviously they take us into a special room.
1:06:42
Speaker 6: They have one side. They say, if you want to
1:06:44
Speaker 6: talk to the media, go to left. Of course I
1:06:47
Speaker 6: got to talk to the media. In nineteen seventy nine,
1:06:50
Speaker 6: no cell phones, guys, a bank of telephones. Call whoever
1:06:53
Speaker 6: you want. I called my parents, Nobody answers the phone.
1:06:56
Speaker 6: I called all these different friends, nobody's at home. Finally
1:06:59
Speaker 6: I called good friend of mine. His sister answers, Kathy,
1:07:02
Speaker 6: is Jim there?
1:07:04
Speaker 2: No?
1:07:05
Speaker 6: She goes, what are you doing? And I said, we
1:07:07
Speaker 6: just got off the plane. She goes, everybody's at the airport.
1:07:10
Speaker 6: So literally, the whole town of Yukon Surrey Hills where
1:07:13
Speaker 6: I grew up, everybody's at the airport. I did a
1:07:16
Speaker 6: ton of interviews. I was looking through the clips. You
1:07:21
Speaker 6: think I'm a bad interview now, somebody quoted me saying
1:07:24
Speaker 6: I'm sure I wasn't misquoted. Oh gosh, we've seen a
1:07:27
Speaker 6: few reporters today. Here's some of the papers. Front page,
1:07:32
Speaker 6: front page.
1:07:33
Speaker 3: It' Icicgo Tribune.
1:07:35
Speaker 6: My mom had a great line. After we got off
1:07:38
Speaker 6: the plane in Chicago, we sat there, you know, they
1:07:41
Speaker 6: took care of ris. Then we flew to Oklahoma f City.
1:07:44
Speaker 6: We arrived fifteen hours later or whatever, and my mom said,
1:07:48
Speaker 6: the ironic thing is Brett has never gotten on time
1:07:52
Speaker 6: anywhere in his life. And I was late once again.
1:07:55
Speaker 6: Everyone thought, because you're hijacked, you get to fly free.
1:07:58
Speaker 6: After that, dozens of people when they knew I was hijacked,
1:08:01
Speaker 6: do you get a fly free now? No, I don't
1:08:03
Speaker 6: get a fly free. Also, after a few months after,
1:08:07
Speaker 6: American Airlines sent all of us a little silver pendit.
1:08:11
Speaker 6: I don't have it with me, and it had flight
1:08:13
Speaker 6: two ninety three on it in the date on the
1:08:15
Speaker 6: other side. As soon as we're done here, I guess
1:08:18
Speaker 6: I should check with Darren Ravel and see what that's
1:08:20
Speaker 6: worth on the open market. Yeah, my wife loves that
1:08:23
Speaker 6: I'm hijacked because she loves to fly with me. Because
1:08:25
Speaker 6: the odds of being on a hijack plane twice in
1:08:28
Speaker 6: your life, I'd say, are as long as Colorado winning
1:08:32
Speaker 6: the National Championship. Two things I forgot to mention again.
1:08:36
Speaker 6: This is nineteen seventy nine, before nine to eleven. Everyone
1:08:39
Speaker 6: got off the plane. They gave him a plane to
1:08:42
Speaker 6: fly back from Chicago to New York. When he got
1:08:45
Speaker 6: to New York at JFK, they gave him another plane
1:08:48
Speaker 6: because he wanted to fly to Yugoslavia to get an
1:08:51
Speaker 6: associate of his out of prison. So they actually gave
1:08:54
Speaker 6: him a plane and flew him back to Yugoslavia. On
1:08:57
Speaker 6: the way, he decided he wanted to go to Io,
1:09:00
Speaker 6: Ireland instead. He got to Ireland and he did surrender.
1:09:04
Speaker 6: He spent twenty years in jail. When he got out
1:09:06
Speaker 6: of jail, he did some interviews. I've read a lot
1:09:09
Speaker 6: of those. One of them he said that he is
1:09:12
Speaker 6: the one that gave Ben Lauden the idea of flying
1:09:15
Speaker 6: planes into buildings. He actually said when he was flying
1:09:19
Speaker 6: back to Ireland that his idea was to take over
1:09:23
Speaker 6: that plane and fly into a specific building, but because
1:09:26
Speaker 6: they didn't have the right proper tracking equipment, he decided
1:09:30
Speaker 6: not to do that. His attorney convinced him to surrender
1:09:34
Speaker 6: when he got to Ireland, so he died I think
1:09:37
Speaker 6: fifteen twenty years ago. He was in his seventies when
1:09:40
Speaker 6: he died. You know, quite a footnote.
1:09:42
Speaker 2: I guess.
1:09:43
Speaker 6: Now one other quick thing. So my first year at
1:09:45
Speaker 6: ESPN covering the National Title game, and afterwards, I'm at
1:09:48
Speaker 6: dinner with Chris Fowler, Heather Cox, and John Saunders. May
1:09:53
Speaker 6: he rest in peace, great guy. We're sitting around the
1:09:56
Speaker 6: table just talking about different things. I didn't bring this up,
1:09:59
Speaker 6: and I know it wasn't Chris Fowler, so it was
1:10:01
Speaker 6: either Saunders or Heather Cox. And somehow they said, what's
1:10:05
Speaker 6: the weirdest thing about you that nobody knows? I put
1:10:09
Speaker 6: twenty dollars down on the table and said, I'm winning.
1:10:12
Speaker 6: So Chris Fowler said, basically he didn't have anything. Heather
1:10:17
Speaker 6: Cox at that point lived in Colorado. If people remember
1:10:22
Speaker 6: the name John Bena Ramsey and she went through the
1:10:24
Speaker 6: whole thing. They lived in the same neighborhood and police
1:10:27
Speaker 6: actually interviewed her husband. He was one of the last
1:10:30
Speaker 6: people to see John Bena Ramsey, but obviously he had
1:10:32
Speaker 6: nothing to do with it. So that was her deal.
1:10:35
Speaker 6: John Saunders, who's from Canada, he was like, I was
1:10:39
Speaker 6: arrested not once, but twice on suspicion of armed robbery,
1:10:45
Speaker 6: Like what some reason? He got picked up for arm
1:10:48
Speaker 6: rawery in Canada. So so then I followed up with okay, guys,
1:10:53
Speaker 6: I was on a hijack plane. I raked in my
1:10:56
Speaker 6: money and it's obviously a good icebreaker. Somebody needs to
1:11:01
Speaker 6: do a Netflix series if they haven't already. It seemed
1:11:03
Speaker 6: like there was a hijack plane every month back then.
1:11:06
Speaker 6: That was just kind of like the thing to do,
1:11:08
Speaker 6: and security obviously was a big issue.
1:11:11
Speaker 2: So that's it my hijack story.
1:11:14
Speaker 6: If you hate it, blay Matt Mitchell, that's.
1:11:16
Speaker 2: All I got.
1:11:21
Speaker 1: Out.
1:11:23
Speaker 6: Don't carry me.
1:11:24
Speaker 1: To buy away.
1:11:27
Speaker 2: The line out.
1:11:32
Speaker 1: Today as a reminder of the Favorites podcast is presented
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