Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Vincent McAviney: UK Correspondent on election day and impending loss for the Conservative Party

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Vincent McAviney: UK Correspondent on election day and impending loss for the Conservative Party · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: I'm good.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: How are you doing very well on doing? Speaking of parties,
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: how big is it going to be at Labor HQ
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: tonight you Regon.
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  Speaker 1: I think it is going to be pretty big. As
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  Speaker 1: we speak. There are forty six million eligible voters going
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: to the polls here. They have until ten pm, and
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  Speaker 1: on the last bit of polling that was released last night,
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  Speaker 1: Labor is on course for the largest single party majority
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: since eighteen thirty two, with sixteen members of the current
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: twenty six member cabinet the government here expected to lose
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: their seats. To put that into context, only eleven cabinet
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: members have lost their seats in elections since nineteen seventy.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: It is expected to be a huge night for Labor,
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  Speaker 1: with them going up to as many as four hundred
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  Speaker 1: and thirty one MPs out of our six hundred and fifty,
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  Speaker 1: the Conservatives falling all the way down to one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and two MP's, basically losing about two thirds of their
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  Speaker 1: party in part parliament, and the Liberal Democrats are sort
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: of fighting now a bit for the third place because
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  Speaker 1: they're going to go all the way up to seventy
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  Speaker 1: two MP's. Its thoughts, that is their highest ever turnout
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  Speaker 1: so it is going to be a bit of a
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  Speaker 1: dramatic night in UK politics if these polls are to
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  Speaker 1: be believable.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it was my next question, do you believe the poles?
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  Speaker 2: When first of all tupac question you get an exit
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  Speaker 2: pole and the exit poles, broadly speaking accurate. Second part,
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  Speaker 2: do you believe the polls? Is it going to be
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  Speaker 2: that big or not?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, all of the UK broadcasters work together on the
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  Speaker 1: exit pole. It there's a mammoth exercise. It is normally
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  Speaker 1: pretty accurate. So that'll drop right at ten o'clock our time,
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  Speaker 1: and it's thought that the sort of will start to
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: get maybe an indication at about three am four am
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  Speaker 1: of how accurate it is. I think tonight honestly is
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  Speaker 1: going to either be the death of the British Conservative
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  Speaker 1: Party or the death of the British polling industry, because
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: if they have got it so wrong, then I think
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  Speaker 1: the whole mechanism that they use using landline phones and such.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: They are trying to diversify it, but then the whole
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  Speaker 1: mechanism is completely busted. The Conservatives are going to be
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  Speaker 1: in a state of freefall of it's going to be
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  Speaker 1: believed because the Prime minister even for the first time
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  Speaker 1: ever Rishie Sunak, no Prime minister has lost his seat before.
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  Speaker 1: He will likely lose his seat, it seems on these projections.
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  Speaker 1: And then there is going to be a big fight
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  Speaker 1: between the sort of more centrist wing of the party,
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  Speaker 1: the Cameronites that took them back into power in twenty ten,
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  Speaker 1: versus the sort of far right of the party, the
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  Speaker 1: Sewella Bravaman's, the Kemi Badanox, the people that were the
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: sort of leave tribe when it came to the EU ferendum.
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  Speaker 1: Whether or not they take control of the party, but
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  Speaker 1: I think it's pretty safe to say, no matter what
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  Speaker 1: happens tonight or whoever comes out on top by how much,
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  Speaker 1: it is very likely that this is the final day
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  Speaker 1: of fourteen years of Conservative government in Britain.
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  Speaker 2: That is true. What do we make of the Reform Party?
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  Speaker 2: They at least look like the going to at last
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  Speaker 2: get a few seats.
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  Speaker 1: I think we're going to see no more than four
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  Speaker 1: to five seats for them. The problem with Reform, as
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: it was with UKIP, is it is the Nigel Show.
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  Speaker 1: He doesn't like sharing the spotlight. This is Nigel Farage
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  Speaker 1: their leader. He is likely to become an MP out
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  Speaker 1: in Clacton. I don't think, having known Nigel for a
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  Speaker 1: long time, he's gonna much enjoy being an MP, to
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  Speaker 1: be honest, because it sort of diminishes his platform. If
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: they've only got four or five MPs, he's just one
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  Speaker 1: of sort of six hundred and fifty. He won't be
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: afforded sort of you know that many questions at Prime
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  Speaker 1: Minister's questions. He also will have to declare all his finances.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: He won't be able to jest around as much. You'll
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: have to do things like constituency surgeries. But there is
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  Speaker 1: this sneaking suspicion that he might make a bid to
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  Speaker 1: swap to the Conservative Party and try and take over
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: the leadership of that party. But there have been done
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: quite a bit of damage because a lot of their
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: candidates weren't properly vetted. There's been accusations levels of racism
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: by some of them. But also I've spoken to some
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: candidates around the country, Conservative candidates who've become slightly less
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: worried about THET in particular those who have a lot
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: of military personnel or families with military personnel who might
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: have been reform curious they're really unhappy with what Nigel
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Frage has been saying about Vladimir Putin and his sort
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  Speaker 1: of thoughts that NATO and the West provoked the invasion
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  Speaker 1: of Ukraine. So whilst I think they will split a
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  Speaker 1: lot of toy vote in parts of the country, in
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  Speaker 1: the North particularly, I don't think they're going to be,
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  Speaker 1: you know, anywhere going more than sort of five MP's
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  Speaker 1: at maximum because of the way our system works.
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  Speaker 2: What you read on the usumpage, given all the problems
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  Speaker 2: they've hid and does the rid wives sweep up north?
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  Speaker 1: I think Labor are going and this has always been
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  Speaker 1: the problem for Labor. They were so locked out of
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  Speaker 1: power after having lost basically all of their seats in
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  Speaker 1: Scotland back in twenty fifteen after that independence referendum, when
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the SNP storms through Scotland taking I think all but
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  Speaker 1: one seat at the time. I think the SNP are
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  Speaker 1: going to hold on to some of their key seats,
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  Speaker 1: but they are going to be much diminished in Westminster.
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  Speaker 1: They have tried to make this north of the border
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  Speaker 1: a you know, this is the sort of final stand
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  Speaker 1: for trying to get independence. They've had, you know, they
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  Speaker 1: only had a leader in position for about a week
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  Speaker 1: before this election was called after the previous one stood down,
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  Speaker 1: and of course the Nicholas Sturgeon the police investigations ongoing
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: about what's been going on with party finances. What will
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: be interesting is Nicholas Sturgeon is one of the main
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: contributors tonight on the ITV Overnight election program, so she'll
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: be in the studio having to react in real time
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  Speaker 1: to the fate of her party that she led for
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  Speaker 1: a long time successfully.
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  Speaker 2: Jus are going to be fascinating time, all right, Vincent
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  Speaker 2: appreciated very much, might go well. Vincent mcavinie, who was
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: in Britain for more from News Talks.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: It'd be listen live on air or online and keep
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: our shows with you wherever you go with our podcast
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: on iHeartRadio.