Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 217 - 2/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 217 - 2/14/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 217 of the All Systems Go Sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Friday. More importantly, did you forget
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today is Valentine's Day? Happy Valentine's Day, it's all
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the married people, the people and relationships, the people
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who are single. Hopefully it's a good day to, I
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don't know, enjoy it with the person you love or if you don't
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have a person. And before I got married, before
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I was dating the wife, I was single at one point.
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You know what I did on Valentine's Day?
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I would order my favorite food, have a couple beverages, usually
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take out and sweat some games by myself and treat myself.
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So either way, whether you're single, whether you're married,
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whether you're in a situation ship, what the kids call it
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nowadays, regardless of your personal situation, happy
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Valentine's Day. So with that being said, we got
1:15
a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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I have another big college basketball slate for you.
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It's a smaller than usual slate, only around 16 games overall,
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but I have a three pack of plays that I'm excited to to share
1:27
with you guys seen of course, so we can go 2 and one and eek out
1:30
a winning night. Now I wanted to mention two.
1:33
Obviously a big Friday, no pod over the next couple days.
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So we'll be back on Monday, but tomorrow is a huge college
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basketball day. There's over 100 and I think
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40-50 hundred and 50 games across the market.
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And a lot of people say, you know, who are you on on the
1:46
weekends? Well, guess what?
1:48
There's two ways you can figure out who I'm on.
1:50
If you want to tailor get some insights.
1:51
One, just follow me on Twitter at Josh under score insights.
1:55
I will always tweet out the sharp reports that I write for
1:58
visen.com each day. Usually they come around, come
2:01
out around noon or one, but on Saturdays or Sundays when games
2:04
are earlier in the day, I'll probably put it out around 10:00
2:06
AM or so. So you can look forward to that.
2:08
And then also you can only support the pod by following the
2:11
all systems go best bet picks on juice reel.
2:15
All you got to do is download download the juice reel app, go
2:17
to the social tab, click find juicers, type in ASG under score
2:22
podcast and I'll always tweet out the link each day so you can
2:25
tell those best bets. If you're interested in again
2:28
pods free, consider consider the plays a tip jar.
2:31
They cost $4.99 a week for seven days of plays and literally it's
2:36
about a cup of coffee. So if you want to set up support
2:38
the pod out, very much appreciate that.
2:41
Now with that being said, we got a couple or three overall
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college hoops games to talk about today.
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And then I have to hit the road because I'm going to pick up my
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pup, my metal pup, my girl who I've missed for over about a
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week and a half. I left her with my mom and dad
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out in the boonies in Western Mass for over a week as the wife
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and I went to New Mexico. So I've missed her.
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I'm excited to go pick her up and bring her back home and then
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it'll be me, the wife and the pup back again.
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So I'm looking forward to that. And also, I'm technically
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leaving the wife alone on Valentine's Day, but she knows
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I'm going to get the dog. But you know what, I'll tell you
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guys if you have no idea what to get that person in your life and
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they're not paying me to tell you this, but I've been now
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married to my wife for two years.
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We've been together for almost six years at this point.
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Every Valentine's Day, I would go to CVS and I would get her
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like, you know, the chocolates that are in the chocolate aisle.
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I thought I was doing a good job getting her nice chocolates and
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some flowers, but she always hated the chocolate.
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She's like, do you ever listen to me?
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Do you ever listen to what I actually want?
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So I actually was an MVP this year.
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She had mentioned, I don't know, maybe a month ago, two months
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ago, that she always wanted to get Edible Arrangements.
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So they're basically, and she's on a kind of a bit of a diet or
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a health kick here recently. So I remembered what she said.
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I went to Edible Arrangements again, they're not promoting me
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to tell you this. I'm just telling you it was a
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bit expensive. I'll, I'll be honest with you, I
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think it was like 6570 bucks, but it got delivered to the
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house right on the steps there in front of our house.
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And it's got really good fruit, chocolate covered strawberries.
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There's a bunch of pineapple, which she likes.
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So it was a bit expensive, but that was the happiest I've seen
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her On Valentine's Day. She's like, you finally
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listened. You finally got what I wanted.
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So again, don't worry about the chocolates, the classic stuff.
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If your if your wife, girlfriend, whoever that person
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is in your life is a little bit, I don't know, healthier.
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Even though I think today's a day where you can get away with,
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get away with chocolate edible arrangements.
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It just was a big, big win for me.
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So I don't feel as bad leaving her alone.
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Going to pick up the dog here on Valentine's Day.
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And you know what she got for me?
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I'm a very simple man. You know what I like?
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I am not a health freak. I probably should be though.
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I like Reese's. She got me a bunch of Reese's
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peanut butter cups, Reese's, everything, this and that and I
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was happy with that. So so there you go.
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But anyway guys enough about that.
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Let's talk some sharp betting angles for today.
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I got a three pack as you guys know the drill.
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Let's try to go 2 and one, but I buried the lead.
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Do you guys remember what happened last night?
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We swept the board, bust out the brooms. 3 and O + 2.15 units
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wins with Southern Utah, William and Mary, South Dakota.
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But most importantly, you know those people who always tell you
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if you like the team, why don't you just lay the points?
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What are you afraid? What are you not confident in
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your play? No laying the points sometimes
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can lead to a loss when going money line leads to a win.
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So 2 perfect examples last night, Southern Utah came
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through for the team. They're actually down for quite
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a bit and they came back in one by two and they were -2 1/2.
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So again, you lay the 2 1/2, you lose, you went money line like
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we did, you won the bet. South Dakota came through, they
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covered and won the money line. But then also William and Mary,
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Old Bill and Mary. Bill and Mary won by one point.
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They're down by one with four seconds left.
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The kid hit a great little, you know, contested layup.
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They won by 1.6160. And why is that important?
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Because you lay the 2 1/2, you lost, you went money line with
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the ASG pod, you won your bet. So that is why you should say it
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with me. Always money line short
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favorites. So that being said, let's see if
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we can put together another winning day for today.
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So first put on the board for me guys.
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Bit of an early matchup here. 6:30 PM Eastern Time.
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Mount Saint Mary's and Niagara now going in this one.
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Mount Saint Mary's 13 and 10 on the year.
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Did just see, however, their two game win streak come to an end.
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They lost to Iona 70 to 67 and overtime did not cover as a one
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point home dog. Meanwhile, Niagara 10 and 14,
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but they've won three of their last four.
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Just took down Canisius 71 to 60.
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They covered that game as an 8 1/2 point home favorite.
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So what have we seen across the board here?
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Well, sneaky sharp movement in favor of Niagara.
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Niagara opened as a very short 1 or 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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And there hasn't been a ton of movement.
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But I noticed that a lot of these minus ones immediately got
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up to 1 1/2. But then the 1 1/2's got juiced
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up 1 -, 1 1/2 -, 115 and some books even went to two today.
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So you might look at and say, oh, open 1 1/2, still 1 1/2.
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But this is the importance of, again, not just comparing open
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to current, but looking at all the moves in between, the juice
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in between. So it kind of tells me liability
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here on Niagara, the fact that they're juiced up and even went
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to two briefly today at some shops and there's still one book
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at -2. What I really like about Niagara
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is the bet split. Relatively low back game here
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tonight, but Niagara at DraftKings only getting 61% of
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spread bets, but 90%, nine O 90% of spread dollars.
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So really good low bets, higher dollars bet split, basically
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slight public support, but again, it's a low back game.
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But a ton of big heavy money here on Niagara, which kind of
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coincides with that juiced up angle as well as that line move.
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Again, the books that were at one or 1 1/2 up to two.
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Of course, you guys know the drill.
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Happened with Southern Utah and William and Mary.
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We just mentioned that. But I ain't laying a 1 1/2 or
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two with Niagara. They win by one, we lose.
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So this is a money line bet as you would expect.
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I got Niagara here on the money line -130 I'm going to bank on a
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few things with Niagara. Better offensive efficiency, not
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great, they ranked 282 in the country, but you look at Mount
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Saint Mary's, they ranked three O 7, so lesser of two evils
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there. Better effective field goal
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percentage, 52% versus 50%, Slightly better three-point
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shooting, 34% versus 33% and slightly better free throw
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shooting 74% versus 73%. Also big angle here, taking care
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of the ball. I always like it when I can bet
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on a team that takes better care of the ball and doesn't turn it
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over. How frustrating is it when the
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team you're betting on is coughing it up, making dumb
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passes, getting stolen, getting blocked?
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It's frustrating. You want to do it to your
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opponent, not have it done to you.
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Niagara is ranked 259th in the country and turnover percentage,
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again, doesn't sound great, but Mount Saint Mary's was ranked
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353rd. That's got to be maybe dead last
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in the country because there's not many more than 353 teams in
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Division One. But anyway, Niagara also just
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kind of the classic situation of a team that is a below 500 team,
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10 and 14, that's actually favored over a team that's 13
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and 10. So even when you apply
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homecourt, why is the sub 500 team favored over the above 500
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team? Niagara's playing better as a
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late. They have some good bet splits
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here. Little bit of sneaky line
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movement. I also like the fact that even
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though it's not a huge edge, rhythm has Niagara -0.9.
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So again, if they can just win by 1, we can cash that money
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line. But I'm going with Niagara
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hopefully to get it done. Do you guys know the Niagara
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mascot? They are the purple eagles.
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I was actually writing a sharp report and I randomly wrote
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Purple Eaters. I said, oh, I got to fix that,
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the purple eagles. So Coco, or maybe that's a crow
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fly. Eagles fly.
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Let's go. Niagara on the money line.
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Niagara -130 that's the number that I got.
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Second game of the night, another kind of fishy 1 here.
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Marist against Sienna 7:00 Eastern Time tip off.
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We have Marist coming in really good record 16 and 5:00, but
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they have dropped two in a row. Just lost to Iona 75 to 71,
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losing outright as a 3 1/2 point home favorite.
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Meanwhile Sienna 11 and 13 did just see their two game win
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streak come to an end. However, they lost to Ryder 61
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to 59 didn't or lost outright as a 2 point Rd. favorite.
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So what have you seen across the market here?
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Well, very similar. If you like Niagara, I think you
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like Sienna. Give me Sienna money line guys.
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I got Sienna money line at -145 Sienna opened as a very short 1
10:49
1/2 point home favorite. And again, right off the bat,
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why is a below 500 team favored over and above 500 team?
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Not just any above 500 team. Marist is 16 and five.
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That's a really good record. Public says the wrong team is
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favored. However, even though you're
11:04
getting nearly 2/3 of bets at Draft Kings on Marist, the line
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is moved further towards Sienna. Sienna only getting around 1/3
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of bets, but they've moved from -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2.
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So take a step back. If Publix playing Marist the
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obvious play better record. You know, shouldn't this game be
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down to a pick em? Shouldn't it be moving back?
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No flipping to Marist, hopping the fence, going to a small
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favorite. No, it's gone further towards
11:28
Sienna, even though the public is on Marist, so you guys know
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the drill. Fade the trendy dog.
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Really sharp reverse line move here on the Sienna Saints.
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Now Draft King Sienna's only getting around 1/3 of bets, but
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nearly 65% of dollars. So really good low bets, higher
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dollars bet split in favor of Sienna.
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Now Ken Palm has Sienna winning by two points again, they're -2
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1/2. We ain't laying at 2 1/2, having
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them win by one or two and lose our bets.
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This is the money line play. As I mentioned, I got Sienna
11:56
money line at -145 I like the DraftKings split as well on the
12:00
money line. They're only getting 57% of
12:02
money line bets, but nearly 80% of money line dollars.
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And a couple things to bank on with Sienna Better offensive
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efficiency 264 in the country versus 3O2 for Marist.
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Better free throw shooting 72% versus 68%.
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And also just that classic Fishy Bilo favorite who's got a losing
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record against the sell High Dog with a winning record.
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By the way, our friends at Rhythm have Sienna -1.7, so
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again, as long as we get the money line 1.7.
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Ken Palms got him by two. Let's win this damn game.
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Give me Sienna on the money line at -145 Then the big one, the
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big boy tonight, UCLA and Indiana, the most heavily backed
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game of the night, 8:00 prime time.
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This one's going to be a banger. And I'm excited because I get to
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sweat this one with my dad spending the night with the
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parents, get to pick up the dog. I tell you what, my mom made
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homemade meals. I'm very lucky, made them my
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entire life and now I rarely get to visit and stay the night with
13:04
the parents. And I think my mom's making
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spaghetti and meatballs tonight. So I'm very much looking forward
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to that. And then I get to watch and
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sweat a game with my dad. I said, you want to sweat UCLA,
13:13
Indiana with me. He's kind of a not a huge
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college basketball guy. He he actually tunes in really
13:20
only to March Madness, but he said, sure, I'll watch it with
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you. He said, who are we on?
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And I said UCLA, let's go. Bruins set the stage here.
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UCLA is 18 and seven on the year.
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Just had their seven game win streak come to an end though
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they lost to Illinois 83 to 78. Did cover however, as a 7 1/2
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point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, Indiana Hoosiers are
13:41
15 and 10 this year. They just snapped A5
13:43
game-winning skid though, or five game losing skid I should
13:46
say, with a really big win over Michigan State.
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They were an 11 1/2 point Rd. dog at Sparty.
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They won 71 to 67. Keep that in mind because I
13:55
think there's a spot, a let down spot to bet against Indiana.
13:58
Anyway, this game opened UCLA listed as a 1 1/2 point Rd.
14:02
favorite. And really we've seen sneaky
14:05
liability on UCLAUCLA open -1 1/2 -, 110.
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They're getting juiced up at quite a few shops -1 1/2 - 115
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and some shops have even gotten up to -2 So you open -1 1/2
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UCLA, it's not down to one or down to a pick them.
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It's actually stay the same or move toward UCLA.
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So kind of sneaky liability there on the Bruins now, I like
14:27
the bet split quite a bit. At DraftKings, they're getting
14:30
63% of bets. UCLA is, I don't love that, but
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they're getting 93% of spread dollars.
14:36
So slight public support heavy smart money.
14:39
Now, Ken Palm does have UCLA winning by two points.
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So of course you could lay a 1 1/2 win by two and you're good.
14:46
But you know, just like we saw last night with a one point win
14:49
with William and Mary, it's a money line bet for me.
14:51
So I got UCLA on the money line at -128 a couple things to like.
14:56
At Circa, this really jumped out to me.
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The Bruins are only getting 33% of money line bets, but 94% of
15:04
money line dollars. That really, really jumped out.
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The good spread split at DraftKings, the great money line
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split at Circa tells me the wise guys out in Vegas are looking
15:14
toward UCLA. Here.
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UCLA has a lot of advantages, better offensive efficiency,
15:19
44th in the country versus 65th for Indiana.
15:23
And UCLA is a really good defensive team.
15:24
They ranked 12th in defensive efficiency.
15:27
Indiana ranks 48th. The Bruins have the better
15:30
effective field goal percentage, 53% versus 52%.
15:34
They shoot the three better, 35% versus 32%, and they take much
15:39
better care of the ball. They ranked 65th in turnover
15:41
percentage. The Hoosiers ranked 185th.
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And then also forcing turnovers. The Bruins are #1 in the country
15:48
at forcing turnovers, Hoosiers ranked 276th.
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So usually takes care of the ball and turns the opponent
15:55
over. Indiana doesn't turn over the
15:58
the opponent and they turn it over themselves.
16:00
Hope that's a a benefit toward UCLA.
16:02
Then lastly, I kind of just like the spot with UCLA.
16:06
They're a good team who just had their winning streak coming and
16:09
they lost. So they're coming off a loss
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versus Indiana, who was a sell high home dog coming off a huge
16:16
win over Michigan State. So maybe it's a let down for
16:19
Indiana. Maybe it's a bounce back for
16:21
UCLAI noticed too, Mick Cronin, he was complaining about the
16:25
schedule and the travel. But UCLA just played Illinois,
16:29
so they're not going West Coast to Midwest.
16:31
They've been in the Midwest. So hopefully this isn't a bad
16:33
travel spot. Maybe that's an advantage or
16:36
maybe I'm looking too deep into it, who knows.
16:38
But I just kind of kind of thought that that was
16:40
interesting with UCLA. So Long story short, guys forgot
16:44
to mention Rhythm has UCLA -1.9, so closer to two.
16:48
So I'm going to sweat UCLA with my dad.
16:51
We're Boston Bruins fans, hasn't been a great year for the Bees,
16:55
but we are tonight. Big UCLA Bruins fans.
16:58
Give me UCLA money line -128 you might be able to find a -, 125
17:03
out there. So Niagara, Sienna, UCLA 3 money
17:07
lines. Let's try to go 2 and one and
17:09
continue our hot streak. So that about does it for
17:13
episode 217 of the ASG Pod on a big Friday and a little shorter,
17:18
shorter than usual, but I I got to hit the road and and go pick
17:22
up the pup and see my mom and dad.
17:24
But anyway, this is the part of the pod where we wrap things up
17:27
And 1st I start by saying thank you.
17:29
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
17:31
busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and sweat sharp
17:35
contrarian breakdowns with me. It means the world that win,
17:37
lose or draw, we get together each day and and keep a positive
17:41
attitude. Stick to the market, stick to
17:43
data-driven bets and try to produce and grind through the
17:46
challenges and produce winning days.
17:48
So thank you for tuning in. If you enjoy the pod and you
17:51
want to help me to grow the pod, I'd very much appreciate that.
17:55
If you want to help, you can do one easy, simple thing.
17:58
It's going to take you 3 seconds or less.
18:01
All you got to do is give this podcast a five star review.
18:04
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, that would go a long
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way to helping us to continue to expand the pod as well as click
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the follow button. That way you get alerted as soon
18:12
as it drops each day. And you can always recommend it
18:15
to a friend. That would be great as well.
18:17
Secondly, if you enjoy this style of betting breakdown, you
18:20
notice we never say I think, I hope, I want, I bet this will
18:25
happen. That's all opinion.
18:26
Everyone's got opinions. That's fine, but opinions are
18:29
based in bias. We stick to what the market is
18:32
telling us. If this approach to betting
18:34
appeals to you, maybe you feel like you've become a sharper
18:37
better since putting your bias to the side and starting to bet
18:40
based on how the Wall Street traders at the stock market bet.
18:44
Not with opinion, but looking at hard numbers and how the market
18:47
moves and line moves and bet splits and where's the money
18:51
going? Where can we bet against the
18:52
public? If this style of betting appeals
18:54
to you and you want to learn more about data-driven betting,
18:57
you can always buy my first book, the Everything Guide to
19:00
Sports Betting on Amazon. But you know what I love you to
19:03
do? I would love you to pre-order my
19:06
new book. My second book.
19:07
It comes out August 12th of 2025.
19:11
Can't believe it, so excited about it.
19:13
But if you want to help to continue to generate buzz and
19:16
make the publishers happy, I want to accrue as many pre sales
19:20
as possible. So if you enjoy the pod, could
19:22
you please go to Amazon.com and type in the NFL sharp betting
19:27
playbook and you'll it'll pop up for you.
19:29
There'll be a pre sale option. Buy a pre sale copy.
19:33
You'll get it delivered as soon as it drops in August.
19:35
But seriously, the pre sales you guys are sending me screenshots
19:39
of your pre sales. It means the world to me.
19:42
Thank you thank you thank you. Lastly, if you haven't done it
19:46
yet, go download rhythm and juice reel, my two favorite
19:48
sports betting apps. Rhythm is great for their AI
19:51
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
19:54
And I mentioned it yesterday, but rhythm is going to have MLB
19:57
this year for the first time. So can't wait to have some
19:59
rhythm insights that we can use all year long betting MLB and
20:04
then also juice reel where you can follow the robo Jackson best
20:07
bet picks. You can follow the all systems
20:08
go best bet picks you can get. Arbitrage indicators and system
20:13
matches each day sharp mush plays shop for the best line
20:16
features prices all included in the juice reel app.
20:20
So download juice reel download rhythm and you can add them both
20:23
to your data-driven toolbox. So that about does it on a big
20:27
Friday on Valentine's Day. Hope you guys have a fantastic
20:30
weekend and a great night tonight.
20:32
But as always, I'm gonna leave you with a couple things.
20:34
One, whether I see you at the Borgata and Atlantic City, Twin
20:38
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
20:41
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, or Plain
20:45
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield, and my neck of the
20:48
woods in Massachusetts. Or out in the desert where the
20:50
true grinders get down. Or Billy Walter sends his number
20:53
runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
20:56
Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
20:58
plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
21:00
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may be,
21:02
you're going to walk up to me and we're we're going to both
21:05
bust out a broom and just smile and RIP a shot or I don't know,
21:09
a ginger ale, but show me a Southern Utah ticket, a William
21:13
and Mary ticket, a South Dakota ticket.
21:15
First one's on me, next one's on you.
21:17
We're going to post about the book Sweat Sharp can train place
21:19
all night long. So wish you the best of luck,
21:22
everybody. As always, some parting words.
21:25
Three and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
21:29
Whatever the case may be, always stick to the model.
21:31
Stick to the blueprint. Grinders with blinders, as my
21:34
old friend Danner B used to say back in the sports Insights
21:37
days, which I think perfectly encapsulated encapsulates it.
21:40
Grinders with blinders. Just keep pushing forward,
21:43
sticking to the model, sticking to the blueprint, and you guys
21:46
know what it is by now. Against the public, with the
21:49
house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
21:52
line value. If we can do that long term,
21:55
we're going to be successful sports betters.
21:57
So have a great Friday, have an even better Valentine's Day,
22:00
have a great weekend, and I will see you guys back at it on
22:03
Monday, which will then be episode 218 of the All Systems
22:07
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
22:11
Good luck everybody and have a great night.