Latest / Predictable with Stu Burguiere / Stu’s HEROIC Market Position You Can’t Afford to Miss!

Transcript

Stu’s HEROIC Market Position You Can’t Afford to Miss! · Predictable with Stu Burguiere

• 0:00
  Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
• 0:02
  Big show today.
• 0:03
  Uh,
• 0:03
  we have,
• 0:04
  we're only a few days away from another set of runoffs.
• 0:06
  We'll tell you a little bit about that.
• 0:08
  We have Stephen Kent joining us from the Consumer Choice Center,
• 0:10
  uh,
• 0:11
  you know,
• 0:11
  talking about prediction markets,
• 0:13
  some of his favorite positions,
• 0:14
  and also,
• 0:15
  uh,
• 0:15
  what is the state of affairs in DC,
• 0:18
  what's going on there,
• 0:19
  that's where he's from,
• 0:20
  so he'll we'll get into that as well.
• 0:21
  And
• 0:22
  I have to tell you about a national
• 0:24
  emergency,
• 0:25
  a potential national emergency
• 0:28
  that you might not know about yet.
• 0:30
  It's very,
• 0:30
  very important,
• 0:31
  and we'll get to that next.
• 0:47
  Well,
• 0:48
  welcome
• 0:49
  to Predictable.
• 0:49
  PredictableShow.com is the place to go to get uh
• 0:52
  all the information you need on prediction markets,
• 0:54
  elections,
• 0:55
  and so much more.
• 0:55
  We are 75 days away from the midterm elections.
• 0:59
  75 days.
• 1:00
  You might think that's kind of close.
• 1:02
  Not that far away.
• 1:03
  Well,
• 1:03
  what if I were to tell you it's 29 days
• 1:06
  until people start voting on those midterm elections,
• 1:08
  which is kind of interesting.
• 1:10
  There was a time in which we used to vote on election day.
• 1:12
  No more.
• 1:13
  29 days since the first round or till the first round of early voting,
• 1:16
  uh,
• 1:17
  begins.
• 1:17
  This is what the election calendar looks like right now.
• 1:19
  I left one off the other day by mistake,
• 1:21
  uh,
• 1:21
  South Carolina,
• 1:22
  the runoff,
• 1:23
  uh,
• 1:23
  very,
• 1:23
  very important one.
• 1:24
  We've talked about it.
• 1:25
  Basically,
• 1:25
  constantly.
• 1:26
  In fact,
• 1:26
  I talked about it in the show,
• 1:27
  uh,
• 1:28
  yesterday,
• 1:28
  but then forgot to put it in our little schedules.
• 1:30
  We have Oklahoma,
• 1:30
  the runoff,
• 1:31
  we have South Carolina,
• 1:32
  the runoff that is on Tuesday,
• 1:34
  uh,
• 1:34
  then on September 1st,
• 1:35
  Massachusetts,
• 1:36
  September 8th,
• 1:37
  New Hampshire and Rhode Island,
• 1:38
  and September 15th,
• 1:39
  Delaware,
• 1:39
  and then we're done.
• 1:41
  That's it for the primaries.
• 1:42
  We've got a lot
• 1:44
  uh to come.
• 1:44
  So we still have about a month of these primaries,
• 1:46
  so we're gonna be joining you on Tuesday nights that will happen,
• 1:49
  uh,
• 1:49
  coming up here in,
• 1:51
  uh,
• 1:51
  you know,
• 1:52
  for the next few weeks.
• 1:53
  Uh,
• 1:53
  we'll be doing the live vote coverage as it all comes out,
• 1:56
  trying to take advantage of those prediction markets,
• 1:58
  uh,
• 1:58
  as we,
• 1:59
  uh,
• 1:59
  as we go.
• 2:00
  Um,
• 2:00
  I wanna say too,
• 2:01
  we have this available for you.
• 2:03
  Predictable 101.
• 2:04
  It is a free guide.
• 2:05
  This is a printed version of it.
• 2:06
  We'll send you a digital copy of it.
• 2:08
  It's up to you whether you wanna print it.
• 2:10
  OK,
• 2:10
  I like printing stuff.
• 2:11
  But anyway,
• 2:12
  uh,
• 2:12
  this is what it looks like.
• 2:12
  It is a chock full of great information and,
• 2:15
  uh,
• 2:16
  you know,
• 2:16
  different things about,
• 2:17
  uh,
• 2:18
  prediction markets,
• 2:18
  how to sign up,
• 2:19
  how to fund your accounts,
• 2:21
  how to trade,
• 2:21
  all the basics
• 2:23
  are in there.
• 2:23
  Uh,
• 2:24
  we have some videos coming as well to go,
• 2:26
  to go along with this,
• 2:27
  but I wanted to get this out to you as fast as possible.
• 2:28
  If you're one of those people
• 2:29
  that is,
• 2:30
  uh,
• 2:30
  attempting,
• 2:31
  this shirt is driving me crazy,
• 2:32
  uh,
• 2:32
  attempting,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:34
  to,
• 2:34
  uh,
• 2:34
  get into the prediction markets right now,
• 2:36
  uh,
• 2:36
  and you don't wanna wait.
• 2:39
  That's an important thing.
• 2:40
  We wanna get that to you.
• 2:41
  How do you get it?
• 2:41
  Well,
• 2:42
  you go to predictableShow.com.
• 2:43
  You sign up to the free service,
• 2:44
  it's totally free.
• 2:46
  Uh,
• 2:46
  free,
• 2:46
  uh,
• 2:46
  membership over at the sub stack,
• 2:48
  and when you do that,
• 2:49
  we we'll email this resource to you right away,
• 2:51
  so you can look at it and get started.
• 2:52
  If you're looking to kind of just dabble a little bit,
• 2:54
  get started,
• 2:55
  a lot of people ask me those questions,
• 2:56
  like,
• 2:56
  hey,
• 2:57
  wait a minute,
• 2:57
  I know you keep talking about
• 2:58
  laddering out of a position.
• 3:00
  What does that mean?
• 3:01
  Uh,
• 3:01
  forget that.
• 3:02
  How do I sign up for a site?
• 3:03
  Where,
• 3:04
  which site should I use?
• 3:05
  Uh,
• 3:05
  what,
• 3:06
  uh,
• 3:06
  you know,
• 3:06
  how much money should I be putting in this?
• 3:08
  Uh,
• 3:08
  how do I trade?
• 3:09
  All these basic questions are really important as you're getting started.
• 3:12
  I wanna make sure this is clear though.
• 3:14
  You have plenty of time.
• 3:15
  You're not too late,
• 3:16
  you're still very,
• 3:17
  very early,
• 3:17
  you're ahead of all your friends on this.
• 3:20
  Most of your friends probably don't know how to do this stuff at all.
• 3:22
  The fact that you're here at all,
• 3:23
  it makes you way out in front of this situation.
• 3:25
  It is going to be a very,
• 3:27
  very big deal as we go into these elections and certainly as we go into 2028,
• 3:30
  it's gonna be massive.
• 3:31
  So,
• 3:32
  don't miss out on your opportunity to understand this stuff before,
• 3:35
  uh,
• 3:35
  everyone's trying to jump in last second and throwing money around.
• 3:37
  Don't be one of those people.
• 3:39
  We're gonna be the smart people,
• 3:39
  we're gonna do all the stuff,
• 3:40
  we get all prepared,
• 3:41
  so we're all ready to go.
• 3:43
  Join us at predictableshow.com.
• 3:46
  We do talk about prediction markets a lot on the show.
• 3:48
  But we talk about the country and how to understand the country,
• 3:50
  and that's why I want you to understand
• 3:53
  that there is a prediction market I wanna talk to you about here today,
• 3:55
  but it surrounds something much,
• 3:57
  much more important.
• 3:58
  A potential national emergency.
• 4:01
  This is the type of emergency that we have to all work together
• 4:05
  to prevent.
• 4:06
  It is vitally important
• 4:08
  that you do your part and I do my part to make sure
• 4:11
  we stop this.
• 4:13
  National tragedy,
• 4:15
  potentially national tragedy,
• 4:17
  uh,
• 4:17
  from occurring.
• 4:19
  I want to talk to you today
• 4:21
  about screwworm.
• 4:23
  Mhm.
• 4:24
  Screw worm.
• 4:25
  Have you heard about screw worm?
• 4:26
  Have you heard about what's going on
• 4:28
  with screw worm right now in this country right now?
• 4:31
  An invasion.
• 4:32
  You've heard about a lot of invasions.
• 4:34
  They've come all around the world,
• 4:35
  maybe on our border,
• 4:36
  but have you heard
• 4:38
  about the screwworm
• 4:40
  invasion in our country?
• 4:42
  Probably not.
• 4:43
  Media is hiding from,
• 4:44
  from you,
• 4:44
  uh,
• 4:45
  constantly.
• 4:46
  Is there a screwworm apocalypse?
• 4:47
  Maybe,
• 4:48
  maybe.
• 4:49
  And it's important you know about it.
• 4:51
  I'm gonna tell you about this.
• 4:54
  There's a slight part of it's kind of gross,
• 4:56
  but I'm gonna try to skip all those parts
• 4:59
  and just give you the information you need to know,
• 5:00
  so we can work together to stop screwworm
• 5:02
  in its tracks.
• 5:05
  About New World screwworm,
• 5:06
  this comes from the CDC.
• 5:08
  It's a real thing,
• 5:08
  I'm not making it up.
• 5:10
  New World
• 5:11
  screwworm,
• 5:12
  look at these little buggers.
• 5:14
  You want one of those things around you?
• 5:15
  Ew,
• 5:15
  that is a disgusting little creature.
• 5:18
  Why does it even exist?
• 5:19
  I don't understand.
• 5:22
  What does it do?
• 5:23
  It eats your flesh.
• 5:24
  Yeah,
• 5:25
  it's one of those things,
• 5:25
  it's a flesh eating guy,
• 5:27
  and he will uh put these little mouth hooks.
• 5:30
  Uh,
• 5:31
  don't zoom in on it.
• 5:33
  You crazy?
• 5:34
  That thing,
• 5:35
  the closer it gets to you,
• 5:36
  the scarier it becomes.
• 5:37
  It uses these little mouth hooks to get that off the screen,
• 5:39
  it's creeping me out.
• 5:43
  Now,
• 5:43
  you might say.
• 5:45
  How come I've never heard about this before?
• 5:46
  What do you mean screw worm?
• 5:47
  What is this?
• 5:48
  Well,
• 5:48
  it's been a problem in the United States for a a a long,
• 5:50
  long time.
• 5:52
  However,
• 5:53
  it was believed to be a problem we had solved,
• 5:56
  OK?
• 5:58
  The history of screw worms
• 5:59
  in the US.
• 6:03
  If you go back
• 6:04
  in the day.
• 6:06
  Screw worm is a huge problem.
• 6:08
  I mean,
• 6:08
  it costs,
• 6:08
  you know,
• 6:09
  billions and billions of dollars of damage because
• 6:11
  basically what happens
• 6:12
  is these little,
• 6:13
  uh,
• 6:14
  flies,
• 6:15
  OK,
• 6:16
  they lay their eggs and they turn into these little,
• 6:18
  then they're,
• 6:19
  it's called screw worm,
• 6:20
  even though it's really more like a,
• 6:21
  a maggot or larvae,
• 6:22
  uh,
• 6:22
  larvae,
• 6:23
  right?
• 6:23
  It's,
• 6:24
  they lay their eggs,
• 6:25
  uh,
• 6:25
  and they,
• 6:26
  they get sheep infected.
• 6:28
  And then,
• 6:28
  uh,
• 6:28
  when that starts happening,
• 6:30
  it's possible,
• 6:31
  though
• 6:32
  difficult
• 6:33
  for this to pass
• 6:35
  to human beings.
• 6:36
  Little flies buzz around.
• 6:38
  They're buzzing around all over the place,
• 6:40
  and then they land on you.
• 6:41
  And they,
• 6:41
  if they land on you and they lay their eggs on you,
• 6:43
  uh,
• 6:43
  first of all,
• 6:43
  gross,
• 6:44
  right?
• 6:45
  It's really nasty.
• 6:46
  But second of all,
• 6:47
  and more importantly,
• 6:48
  that doesn't really do much of anything.
• 6:50
  If a,
• 6:50
  if a screw worm,
• 6:52
  uh,
• 6:52
  one of the flies comes around,
• 6:53
  lays their little eggs on you,
• 6:54
  you're pretty much fine.
• 6:55
  Everything's gonna be fine.
• 6:59
  Except
• 7:00
  if they lay the eggs in a certain place,
• 7:02
  like an open wound or uh some sort of a scar,
• 7:06
  or God knows what,
• 7:07
  OK?
• 7:08
  The chances of that happening have gotta be really,
• 7:10
  really long,
• 7:11
  right?
• 7:12
  And what happened over a long period of time is
• 7:14
  this was infecting uh us up into the 70s,
• 7:17
  it was a real,
• 7:18
  real problem for us and also more,
• 7:20
  even more intensely,
• 7:21
  Central America,
• 7:22
  uh where this was a,
• 7:24
  a,
• 7:24
  a big deal.
• 7:25
  These worms would kind of,
• 7:27
  you know,
• 7:27
  get into uh the population of the livestock
• 7:30
  and other animals,
• 7:32
  and then would become a big problem for human beings.
• 7:35
  Then we came up with this like scientific
• 7:37
  uh solution to the whole deal,
• 7:39
  which was
• 7:40
  basically to take a bunch of flies,
• 7:42
  the male flies,
• 7:43
  and uh make it so they were,
• 7:45
  um,
• 7:46
  you know,
• 7:47
  their stuff didn't work anymore.
• 7:48
  How about that?
• 7:50
  We kind of just like
• 7:52
  evaporated their manhood a little bit,
• 7:54
  OK?
• 7:54
  And so
• 7:55
  the female flies
• 7:57
  can only mate once.
• 7:58
  So the female flies would be like,
• 8:00
  oh,
• 8:00
  I'm going out tonight.
• 8:01
  I'm gonna go hang out at the fly bar,
• 8:03
  uh,
• 8:03
  we have a couple of drinks.
• 8:05
  Hey,
• 8:05
  you're looking pretty good.
• 8:06
  Other additional fly.
• 8:08
  And that additional fly would be like,
• 8:09
  oh,
• 8:09
  yeah,
• 8:10
  you're looking pretty good too.
• 8:11
  The other fly,
• 8:11
  the guy flies like,
• 8:12
  ah,
• 8:12
  I'm all in on this,
• 8:14
  right?
• 8:14
  As,
• 8:14
  I mean,
• 8:15
  Flies and humans are a little too similar in that way.
• 8:18
  But the flies are like,
• 8:19
  the,
• 8:19
  the male flies don't know
• 8:21
  that they can't really reproduce.
• 8:24
  So,
• 8:25
  they hook up,
• 8:26
  the fly can't,
• 8:27
  the,
• 8:27
  the female fly can't,
• 8:29
  uh,
• 8:29
  engage in such activities anymore
• 8:32
  after this cause they can only do it once in their life.
• 8:34
  And,
• 8:34
  uh,
• 8:34
  the guy can't get the job done,
• 8:35
  frankly.
• 8:36
  Uh,
• 8:36
  he just,
• 8:37
  he just,
• 8:37
  he's,
• 8:38
  He lays an egg,
• 8:39
  and when he's trying to do that,
• 8:40
  not,
• 8:40
  not in a literal egg,
• 8:41
  he's just an,
• 8:42
  as a saying,
• 8:43
  he laid an egg.
• 8:44
  He,
• 8:44
  he does not get the job done with the female fly.
• 8:46
  And the female fly can't do it anymore,
• 8:48
  so these flies started going away
• 8:50
  and we had the whole thing eradicated.
• 8:52
  I think the last case,
• 8:54
  until very recently
• 8:55
  in a human being
• 8:56
  was back in the 70s.
• 8:58
  We went multiple decades with no human beings
• 9:01
  getting this
• 9:02
  whatsoever.
• 9:05
  And then,
• 9:06
  in 2025,
• 9:07
  it becomes some sort of issue in Central America,
• 9:10
  it starts popping back up.
• 9:11
  It's getting into uh people,
• 9:13
  it's getting into getting into sheep and other
• 9:15
  livestock first and then getting into people.
• 9:17
  And so,
• 9:17
  all this amounts to,
• 9:19
  it becomes like a legitimate thing in,
• 9:21
  in,
• 9:21
  in Central America where hundreds of people get it,
• 9:24
  a few people actually die from it.
• 9:25
  It's,
• 9:26
  I mean,
• 9:26
  it's terrible,
• 9:26
  it's,
• 9:27
  you don't want this.
• 9:28
  And one of those people
• 9:30
  who's in El Salvador
• 9:32
  gets screwworm,
• 9:34
  and he,
• 9:34
  you know what he decides to do?
• 9:36
  Travel
• 9:37
  to the United States of America.
• 9:39
  Now he's in the United States of America and becomes the first
• 9:43
  human screwworm case
• 9:45
  in multiple decades in the US.
• 9:48
  We think we've got the thing eradicated,
• 9:49
  we're like,
• 9:50
  this is,
• 9:50
  this is guy just travels here.
• 9:52
  So now we've gone all these years with 0 cases every single year.
• 9:56
  Last year,
• 9:57
  1 case.
• 10:01
  Now we're dealing with this.
• 10:02
  New world screwworm outbreak.
• 10:05
  Yes.
• 10:06
  It's happening.
• 10:07
  Let me show you a map.
• 10:08
  This is getting a little personal with this map,
• 10:11
  because I am in Texas right now,
• 10:12
  and there's a bunch of blue squares and a
• 10:14
  couple of orange squares in different counties around Texas,
• 10:17
  and some of them are getting awfully close
• 10:20
  to yours truly.
• 10:21
  I don't
• 10:22
  want
• 10:23
  screw worm.
• 10:24
  I'm,
• 10:25
  I,
• 10:25
  I will not be able to handle it.
• 10:27
  But beyond that,
• 10:28
  if you look here,
• 10:29
  there are 46 cases in animals that have happened in the United States this year.
• 10:34
  Uh,
• 10:34
  there were,
• 10:35
  uh,
• 10:35
  30,
• 10:37
  uh,
• 10:37
  back in June,
• 10:38
  14
• 10:40
  in July,
• 10:41
  and 2
• 10:43
  in August.
• 10:43
  So we have a decrease there,
• 10:46
  and this is part of my
• 10:48
  interest in this case.
• 10:50
  44 inactive
• 10:52
  cases
• 10:53
  of this outbreak and only 2
• 10:55
  active
• 10:56
  right on the border
• 10:57
  of,
• 10:58
  uh,
• 10:58
  screwworm.
• 10:58
  Again,
• 10:59
  0 for humans.
• 11:02
  It's growing though,
• 11:03
  some say
• 11:04
  more uh cases of parasitic screw worm are confirmed.
• 11:07
  Here's who at risk,
• 11:07
  here's who it's spreading.
• 11:08
  Again,
• 11:08
  this is
• 11:09
  a low risk.
• 11:11
  To get to you,
• 11:11
  but we have to take the steps
• 11:15
  necessary
• 11:16
  to avoid this.
• 11:18
  And if that's not enough,
• 11:19
  cause you might be like,
• 11:20
  I don't even like the people around me,
• 11:22
  let them all get screwworm.
• 11:24
  That might be you.
• 11:25
  I hope it's not,
• 11:26
  but that might be you.
• 11:29
  But then you see this,
• 11:31
  thousands of dogs,
• 11:33
  cats.
• 11:35
  You might not like cats,
• 11:36
  you might not like dogs,
• 11:37
  but
• 11:37
  whichever one you like,
• 11:38
  think of that one.
• 11:39
  Thousands of dogs and cats
• 11:41
  at risk of euthanasia over screw worm threat.
• 11:43
  Again,
• 11:45
  I haven't
• 11:46
  actually,
• 11:47
  hasn't actually happened,
• 11:48
  but they're at risk,
• 11:49
  and that's why I want you to take this seriously.
• 11:53
  Now all of this ties into,
• 11:54
  I wanted to give you that background so you can understand
• 11:57
  this particular prediction market.
• 12:00
  How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States this year?
• 12:04
  This is what this market looks for,
• 12:06
  looks like right now.
• 12:07
  Uh,
• 12:07
  the forecast is
• 12:10
  -1.3,
• 12:11
  which I don't,
• 12:12
  I don't really understand how you could have a negative projection,
• 12:15
  but that is
• 12:16
  what Calhi is telling us here.
• 12:17
  More importantly though,
• 12:18
  scroll down a little bit.
• 12:20
  And show us,
• 12:21
  uh,
• 12:21
  the above zero market.
• 12:23
  Here we go.
• 12:23
  Above 0.
• 12:24
  Will there be one case of human screw worm in the United States
• 12:28
  this year?
• 12:29
  There is a 26% chance,
• 12:31
  says this market,
• 12:33
  that there will be.
• 12:34
  Above 1
• 12:35
  is also seemingly at
• 12:36
  26%,
• 12:38
  then 14% chance you get above 2,
• 12:40
  and they get 11% chance it's above 3,
• 12:42
  all the way down to above 10 cases
• 12:44
  would be only a 6% chance.
• 12:48
  I think you know me well enough to know.
• 12:51
  That I wouldn't do a segment like this
• 12:53
  and put all this importance on this just because I
• 12:56
  have a prediction market position in this particular market.
• 12:58
  I wouldn't do
• 12:59
  such a thing.
• 13:01
  As you know,
• 13:02
  that would be
• 13:04
  wrong,
• 13:05
  because what I really care about.
• 13:07
  Is you,
• 13:08
  me.
• 13:10
  The little doggies,
• 13:11
  the little kitties.
• 13:13
  And the sheep.
• 13:15
  That's what I care about.
• 13:16
  It's not a prediction market position at all,
• 13:19
  no,
• 13:19
  no.
• 13:20
  This is about saving lives.
• 13:22
  OK.
• 13:23
  It is vitally important
• 13:25
  that we take the steps necessary.
• 13:28
  To make sure
• 13:30
  we don't
• 13:31
  get human screwworm.
• 13:35
  I want to be known,
• 13:37
  not as a host of a stupid prediction market show or a stupid show with a comedian
• 13:41
  or a guy who used to show host a stupid show with a bunch of other people.
• 13:46
  I want to be known
• 13:48
  as America's number one advocate
• 13:51
  for screwworm awareness.
• 13:53
  That's who I am at my core.
• 13:56
  I want you to be thinking about how to prevent.
• 13:59
  Yourself
• 14:01
  Or literally anyone else from getting
• 14:04
  human screwworm,
• 14:06
  or someone in another country getting human screw worm and then
• 14:10
  visiting.
• 14:11
  That's what I care about.
• 14:14
  And that's why
• 14:16
  I want you to know that I am America's number one
• 14:18
  advocate for screw worm awareness.
• 14:20
  That is what I do.
• 14:21
  That is
• 14:22
  my job.
• 14:23
  That is who I am as a man,
• 14:26
  as a citizen,
• 14:28
  and as a human being.
• 14:31
  Just say no.
• 14:33
  To screwworm
• 14:35
  I hope
• 14:38
  I,
• 14:39
  and I wanna make sure you understand this.
• 14:42
  Cause sometimes they say this and they're like,
• 14:44
  00,
• 14:45
  gosh you,
• 14:45
  11 is too many.
• 14:47
  No,
• 14:47
  I mean this literally,
• 14:48
  1 case is too many.
• 14:51
  We need to have 0 cases of screw worm in this country,
• 14:54
  0,
• 14:54
  not 1,
• 14:55
  not 2,
• 14:56
  not 50.
• 14:59
  We need to stop this.
• 15:01
  Immediately
• 15:04
  0 cases,
• 15:05
  not a bunch of cases,
• 15:07
  not a few that turn out OK,
• 15:09
  no,
• 15:09
  0 cases,
• 15:10
  because that's how serious I am
• 15:12
  about screwworm awareness.
• 15:17
  Look,
• 15:17
  we've made it all the way to August.
• 15:20
  We've made it through
• 15:21
  8 months with 0 cases of screw worm so far.
• 15:24
  We need to continue that.
• 15:26
  You saw it ramping down from 30 cases to 16 to only 2 in August.
• 15:30
  We need
• 15:32
  no human cases.
• 15:34
  Look,
• 15:34
  if all the sheep on the planet get wiped out from screwworm,
• 15:38
  like that's bad,
• 15:38
  but it's not,
• 15:39
  but like I,
• 15:40
  what I'm talking about is humans.
• 15:43
  I'm a,
• 15:43
  I,
• 15:43
  I care about humans.
• 15:47
  If you live in Texas,
• 15:49
  under no circumstances should you go outdoors.
• 15:53
  Stay inside all the time.
• 15:55
  Now,
• 15:55
  I will say in August in Texas,
• 15:57
  it's pretty easy to convince people of this,
• 15:59
  but I don't,
• 15:59
  when you go to a wear a hazmat suit from your work to your car.
• 16:05
  That's what I want you to do.
• 16:07
  Take every
• 16:08
  precaution
• 16:09
  necessary.
• 16:10
  Wear band-aids for,
• 16:12
  for crying out loud,
• 16:13
  wear a band-aid.
• 16:15
  It won't matter what flies land on you,
• 16:17
  but if a fly's coming near you,
• 16:19
  you tell it no.
• 16:21
  I just say no.
• 16:22
  Now it might not be a screwworm fly,
• 16:24
  and you might be totally fine,
• 16:26
  but if you see a fly,
• 16:27
  I want you to run away as if it's a freaking grizzly bear.
• 16:34
  Stay
• 16:35
  away from flies,
• 16:37
  if you're in Texas or frankly anywhere else,
• 16:39
  especially if you're close to the border.
• 16:43
  I'm not being unreasonable here.
• 16:45
  But do it at least until January.
• 16:48
  If you,
• 16:49
  look,
• 16:49
  all I need you to do is to get to January.
• 16:52
  Run away from flies,
• 16:54
  swat them at all costs,
• 16:55
  stay away from sheep.
• 16:57
  That's good advice all the time.
• 16:59
  Some of these weirdos out there.
• 17:00
  Stay away from sheep.
• 17:03
  Stay away from screw worm at all costs,
• 17:05
  at least until January.
• 17:07
  Once we get to 2027,
• 17:09
  you wanna have a spring break screw worm party,
• 17:12
  you do what you do.
• 17:14
  It's important from now
• 17:16
  until December 31st,
• 17:18
  to make sure
• 17:19
  no one in the country gets screwworm.
• 17:22
  And if someone calls you and says,
• 17:23
  hey,
• 17:23
  I've got screw worm,
• 17:24
  can I come visit?
• 17:25
  You say no.
• 17:28
  Just say no.
• 17:30
  To screw worm
• 17:32
  I hope this message has come through
• 17:34
  loud
• 17:36
  and clear.
• 17:37
  And I hope you will take action.
• 17:39
  I hope you will spread the word
• 17:41
  to stay away from all screwworm flat.
• 17:44
  Look at that,
• 17:44
  it's got a screw on the bottom.
• 17:46
  That's not really the scale.
• 17:47
  But
• 17:48
  think of it that way.
• 17:49
  You want that thing just screwing itself into your arm or something,
• 17:53
  laying eggs.
• 17:55
  You want that?
• 17:57
  I hope not
• 17:58
  Because
• 17:59
  it's not pretty
• 18:00
  And it will result in terrible things happening
• 18:03
  to my prediction market account.
• 18:05
  Which is a totally secondary interest for me because I am,
• 18:08
  as you know,
• 18:09
  America's number one advocate for screwworm awareness.
• 18:13
  We do have other things to,
• 18:15
  to talk about today.
• 18:16
  You'll be surprised to hear.
• 18:18
  And uh
• 18:19
  we'll do those here in a second.
• 18:21
  You could join us at predictableShow.com.
• 18:23
  I will say,
• 18:23
  if you were at
• 18:24
  uh predictableShow.com and a premium subscriber,
• 18:26
  you get all my picks.
• 18:27
  There's over 200 of them on there
• 18:29
  in very random markets sometimes like
• 18:32
  Screwworm awareness,
• 18:33
  you would have seen the screwworm pick up there and you would have been like,
• 18:36
  I already know about the screw worm uh potential
• 18:38
  epidemic and that's why I'm taking the steps I,
• 18:40
  you wanna talk about a reason for a border wall?
• 18:44
  Stopping the screw worm
• 18:46
  from coming across.
• 18:47
  OK,
• 18:48
  no screw worms in this country.
• 18:51
  OK.
• 18:52
  PredictableShow.com,
• 18:53
  join us there.
• 18:54
  We get into something maybe a little bit more
• 18:57
  in the news cycle.
• 18:59
  Uh,
• 18:59
  although,
• 19:00
  again,
• 19:00
  this is,
• 19:01
  this is going on right now,
• 19:02
  I wanna be clear,
• 19:02
  but we'll get into,
• 19:03
  uh,
• 19:03
  something a little bit more related to,
• 19:05
  uh,
• 19:05
  elections and prediction markets and the future of them.
• 19:08
  Is there a future for them?
• 19:10
  Is the Trump administration turning on them?
• 19:13
  We'll get into that with Stephen Kent
• 19:14
  next.
• 19:29
  Welcome back.
• 19:30
  Uh,
• 19:30
  I,
• 19:30
  I wanna bring in,
• 19:31
  uh,
• 19:31
  Stephen Kent.
• 19:32
  He is the media director for a great,
• 19:33
  uh,
• 19:34
  organization,
• 19:34
  the Consumer Choice Center,
• 19:36
  and I think one of 4 people left in Washington DC that actually care about markets,
• 19:41
  um,
• 19:41
  and economic freedom.
• 19:42
  Uh,
• 19:43
  Stephen,
• 19:43
  thanks so much for coming back on the program.
• 19:44
  Appreciate it.
• 19:45
  Great to see you.
• 19:46
  Nice to be here with you.
• 19:47
  You know,
• 19:47
  is this my first time on Predictable?
• 19:49
  It is,
• 19:50
  uh,
• 19:50
  congratulations.
• 19:52
  Uh,
• 19:52
  yeah,
• 19:52
  your first time.
• 19:53
  You were on,
• 19:53
  of course,
• 19:54
  Studios America back in the day,
• 19:56
  been on with me and Glenn back in the day,
• 19:58
  but first time on Predictable,
• 20:00
  really happy you're,
• 20:01
  you're able to join us.
• 20:02
  Yeah,
• 20:03
  really nice to be here.
• 20:04
  This has been an awesome show.
• 20:05
  Me and my colleagues at the Consumer Choice Center,
• 20:07
  uh,
• 20:08
  watch this show
• 20:09
  at least a couple of times a week.
• 20:11
  So,
• 20:11
  uh,
• 20:11
  keep up the good work.
• 20:12
  Oh,
• 20:12
  awesome,
• 20:13
  awesome.
• 20:13
  It's a great,
• 20:14
  great group.
• 20:14
  You guys do great work over there.
• 20:15
  Um,
• 20:16
  I wanna talk to you a little bit about Prediction Mark because I kind of like the,
• 20:18
  the landscape,
• 20:19
  uh,
• 20:19
  because,
• 20:20
  uh,
• 20:20
  we,
• 20:20
  we,
• 20:20
  we discussed this a little bit.
• 20:21
  I saw you in DC a few months ago
• 20:23
  and,
• 20:23
  and spent a good amount of time thinking about this and,
• 20:26
  and talking about it,
• 20:26
  and it is.
• 20:28
  It,
• 20:28
  it's an interesting time because this is obviously a,
• 20:31
  um,
• 20:31
  a major financial innovation.
• 20:33
  Most people were not in prediction markets,
• 20:35
  never considered them before the last couple of years,
• 20:38
  and now they're really coming on the scene.
• 20:40
  Um,
• 20:40
  so far,
• 20:41
  the Trump administration,
• 20:42
  uh,
• 20:42
  Michael Selli at the CFTC,
• 20:44
  have been,
• 20:45
  uh,
• 20:45
  frankly great on this issue,
• 20:46
  uh,
• 20:47
  really welcoming the financial innovation and trying to structure this
• 20:50
  in a way that not only protects consumers but also,
• 20:53
  uh,
• 20:53
  allows
• 20:54
  kind of new branches to grow in our economy.
• 20:57
  I think that's a real positive.
• 20:58
  There is a story in The Hill today,
• 21:00
  uh,
• 21:00
  about,
• 21:01
  uh,
• 21:01
  prediction markets,
• 21:02
  uh,
• 21:02
  prediction markets shut out of Trump's meeting
• 21:04
  with tech executives.
• 21:06
  I mean,
• 21:07
  the way it's presented here is kind of like,
• 21:09
  well,
• 21:09
  it was a slight,
• 21:10
  they went with the,
• 21:10
  the crypto side and,
• 21:11
  and,
• 21:12
  and,
• 21:12
  and,
• 21:12
  and was a slight to prediction markets.
• 21:14
  Is there any evidence that the Trump
• 21:15
  administration's changing their mind on this stuff?
• 21:18
  Well,
• 21:18
  you know,
• 21:19
  Donald Trump himself,
• 21:21
  even though he is,
• 21:22
  he is the epitome of a Las Vegas
• 21:25
  Republican,
• 21:25
  er,
• 21:25
  and he is generally open and friendly to
• 21:29
  traditional gambling,
• 21:31
  he's interested in crypto as an investment asset.
• 21:34
  Um,
• 21:35
  he's a,
• 21:35
  he's a,
• 21:36
  a gonzo Republican,
• 21:37
  but when it comes to prediction markets,
• 21:39
  he himself has been a little hot and cold on the issue.
• 21:44
  I can't remember the exact quote,
• 21:45
  but it was sometime in the last year
• 21:48
  where he expressed reticence about Calci and polymarket,
• 21:52
  uh,
• 21:53
  and sort of what he called the casinoizing of everything.
• 21:56
  Uh,
• 21:57
  now this is of course not a viewpoint that that I agree with,
• 22:00
  um,
• 22:01
  but this might be an area where he is divided,
• 22:04
  uh,
• 22:04
  with his sons,
• 22:05
  Don Junior
• 22:06
  and Eric Trump,
• 22:07
  who
• 22:08
  are both involved in different prediction markets and companies
• 22:13
  and interested in them.
• 22:15
  As forms of investment tools.
• 22:17
  So this,
• 22:17
  this is an area of disagreement within this administration,
• 22:20
  but Mike Selig is running away at the CFTC and,
• 22:23
  and doing great work.
• 22:24
  Yeah,
• 22:25
  it's interesting because I think,
• 22:27
  cause I think you're right,
• 22:27
  he has,
• 22:28
  he has mentioned this and been a little bit hesitant.
• 22:30
  He said a couple of the,
• 22:32
  What I would call kind of like
• 22:34
  catchphrases of the opposition to prediction markets,
• 22:37
  the casinoization of America is just,
• 22:38
  it drives me absolutely insane,
• 22:40
  as if we aren't calculating risk on a day to day basis with everything we do,
• 22:43
  including driving our cars and picking a restaurant and
• 22:46
  100 different other things.
• 22:48
  Um,
• 22:48
  but
• 22:49
  one of the things about this in particular,
• 22:51
  which is interesting is the way Trump thinks,
• 22:53
  and I think,
• 22:53
  you know,
• 22:53
  look,
• 22:54
  we all know Trump is a unique guy.
• 22:55
  He does things differently than almost everybody else has ever been in,
• 22:58
  in politics.
• 23:00
  And I think that what what Trump does that's different
• 23:03
  than a lot of politicians or maybe you and I,
• 23:04
  Steven,
• 23:05
  like when I have an issue and I'm thinking about it,
• 23:07
  it pops in my head.
• 23:09
  I consider it,
• 23:09
  maybe I read a little bit about it,
• 23:11
  maybe I go back,
• 23:11
  maybe I talk to people that I trust and think,
• 23:13
  you know,
• 23:14
  uh,
• 23:15
  maybe people who I think are smart,
• 23:16
  I run it by them.
• 23:18
  I,
• 23:18
  I come through all the arguments.
• 23:19
  I try to eventually come to a decision.
• 23:21
  Trump tends to do a lot of that stuff publicly.
• 23:24
  Like he,
• 23:25
  his first thought might have been casino casinoization of America.
• 23:29
  That doesn't mean necessarily that's what he wants as a,
• 23:31
  um,
• 23:32
  as a,
• 23:32
  a policy proposal.
• 23:34
  He doesn't certainly,
• 23:35
  look,
• 23:36
  Michael Selli's a really smart guy.
• 23:38
  Um,
• 23:38
  he's in that position because Donald Trump wanted him in that position.
• 23:41
  Um,
• 23:41
  and,
• 23:42
  uh,
• 23:42
  you know,
• 23:43
  I frankly,
• 23:43
  when I look at it,
• 23:44
  I think
• 23:45
  he is
• 23:46
  generally speaking open to these things.
• 23:48
  Obviously his sons are as well.
• 23:50
  Um,
• 23:50
  I,
• 23:50
  I just wonder if maybe some of that early stuff was more of
• 23:53
  him thinking through the process and coming to a more concrete conclusion.
• 23:58
  Does that make any sense?
• 23:59
  No,
• 23:59
  I I,
• 24:00
  I think that that's absolutely fair,
• 24:01
  and I think the story in The Hill,
• 24:03
  again you mentioned it's,
• 24:04
  it's framing is a little curious,
• 24:05
  you know,
• 24:06
  as if that they were snubbed,
• 24:08
  and perhaps it might have just been simplifying,
• 24:10
  uh,
• 24:11
  the scope of the meeting to just focus
• 24:13
  on cryptocurrencies,
• 24:15
  particularly like as a national security and financial asset.
• 24:18
  You know,
• 24:19
  there was an early report that said prediction
• 24:21
  market companies were going to be present.
• 24:23
  In this room,
• 24:25
  uh,
• 24:25
  both from a technology and a finance perspective,
• 24:28
  and then they backtracked that and and didn't end up bringing them in.
• 24:32
  I,
• 24:32
  I really don't think it says anything in particular about this administration
• 24:35
  besides that it just might have been a miscommunication behind the scenes,
• 24:39
  um,
• 24:39
  but you know,
• 24:40
  the,
• 24:40
  the march against
• 24:43
  prediction markets,
• 24:43
  and I don't want to get ahead of you in the segment here,
• 24:46
  um,
• 24:46
  you know,
• 24:46
  it's,
• 24:47
  it's just a constant onslaught.
• 24:49
  There's a story in,
• 24:50
  in Bloomberg.
• 24:52
  Uh,
• 24:52
  just yesterday,
• 24:54
  um,
• 24:54
  looking at,
• 24:55
  you know,
• 24:55
  prediction markets and their susceptibility,
• 24:58
  you know,
• 24:58
  supposedly to fake polls that get put out there into the ether,
• 25:03
  and you mentioned Donald Trump as being a guy who just
• 25:05
  sort of does gut checks and vibe checks on the news.
• 25:08
  Well,
• 25:08
  you know,
• 25:08
  you sort of have a similar problem going on here,
• 25:11
  which is an allegation.
• 25:13
  That you can just flood the internet with fake polls about
• 25:17
  the mayor's race
• 25:18
  in Los Angeles,
• 25:20
  and then make money moving the polls,
• 25:24
  um,
• 25:24
  and moving prediction markets.
• 25:26
  I think this is actually bunk.
• 25:28
  I don't know if you got a chance to see that story,
• 25:29
  but it's,
• 25:30
  it's not very strong.
• 25:31
  Yeah,
• 25:32
  it's,
• 25:32
  it's,
• 25:32
  first of all,
• 25:33
  it's really interesting.
• 25:33
  There was actually a story about a fake poll that came
• 25:37
  out uh recently and it was in the uh Milwaukee,
• 25:40
  or excuse me,
• 25:40
  Wisconsin.
• 25:41
  Uh,
• 25:42
  statewide
• 25:43
  election with Francesca Hong,
• 25:44
  and it had her up by 20 points.
• 25:46
  There was a question at one point where
• 25:49
  they went to,
• 25:50
  uh,
• 25:51
  to the pollster afterward
• 25:53
  and said,
• 25:53
  hey,
• 25:54
  like what's your,
• 25:54
  what's your process for this?
• 25:56
  You got,
• 25:56
  you had her up by 20 points and she lost,
• 25:58
  and,
• 25:59
  and they,
• 25:59
  their response was basically like,
• 26:01
  oh yeah,
• 26:01
  we're not really a pollster.
• 26:03
  This is just an experiment to see what would happen.
• 26:05
  First of all,
• 26:06
  I am fascinated to see
• 26:08
  who was behind that.
• 26:09
  We've probably learned that.
• 26:10
  But there were legitimate pollsters in the state that had very similar numbers.
• 26:13
  It wasn't like they were the only outlier.
• 26:15
  There's a little bit of this with this fishback campaign thing
• 26:18
  as well where an internal poll was kind of mislabeled,
• 26:21
  um,
• 26:22
  look.
• 26:23
  The information diet we have,
• 26:25
  we can't,
• 26:25
  we live in a society,
• 26:27
  uh,
• 26:27
  Steven,
• 26:27
  especially in the internet era where there's gonna be a lot of information
• 26:31
  that is true and a lot of it that isn't.
• 26:33
  And
• 26:34
  part of understanding prediction markets and understanding the
• 26:37
  news is trying to sort through that.
• 26:40
  Uh,
• 26:40
  that is what that is.
• 26:41
  We,
• 26:42
  we can all complain about this and say that it's,
• 26:44
  uh,
• 26:45
  a terrible thing,
• 26:45
  but like when you look at these pollsters,
• 26:47
  they were unreliable,
• 26:48
  they were brand new.
• 26:49
  No one had ever heard of them before.
• 26:50
  If that was,
• 26:51
  isn't it
• 26:52
  up to us?
• 26:53
  I hate to bring up personal responsibility in this country these days,
• 26:55
  Steven,
• 26:56
  but like,
• 26:56
  isn't that up to us to try to determine
• 26:58
  these things and hopefully get the right answer?
• 27:00
  That is so old fashioned of you to cite personal responsibility,
• 27:04
  but you know,
• 27:04
  that's,
• 27:04
  that's exactly it,
• 27:05
  and this is a thing that Americans,
• 27:07
  I think really all consumers everywhere
• 27:09
  don't generally understand about political polls,
• 27:11
  but just.
• 27:12
  Because you see a poll,
• 27:13
  uh,
• 27:13
  that says your guy is up,
• 27:16
  you should really talk to your friends
• 27:18
  and get a vibe check in your community and go,
• 27:21
  is this what I feel in my community about this race?
• 27:26
  You know,
• 27:26
  something that was so off about Francesca Hong in Wisconsin.
• 27:30
  Uh,
• 27:31
  where she was,
• 27:31
  uh,
• 27:32
  just assumed to be the dominant winner
• 27:34
  in the,
• 27:36
  uh,
• 27:36
  in the governor's,
• 27:37
  uh,
• 27:37
  race,
• 27:38
  was that,
• 27:39
  you know,
• 27:39
  she was going to be a shoo-in because
• 27:41
  democratic socialists are rising all across the country.
• 27:44
  And she was getting all this coverage from the legacy media,
• 27:48
  CNN and MSNBC and whatever circle of hell
• 27:52
  Joy Reid is currently in these days.
• 27:54
  Um,
• 27:55
  but look,
• 27:55
  you,
• 27:55
  you actually have to then pause,
• 27:57
  you go,
• 27:58
  OK,
• 27:58
  there's all this media energy because they want a leftist
• 28:02
  to get this seat.
• 28:03
  Who is currently the governor
• 28:05
  of Wisconsin?
• 28:07
  Tony Evers.
• 28:08
  He's been in the seat
• 28:09
  since 2019.
• 28:11
  He's considered one of the most boring governors in all of America.
• 28:15
  And so you should be asking yourself as a person
• 28:18
  watching this race and moving money in through prediction markets and going,
• 28:22
  Why would Wisconsin Democrats elevate the most boring man in America
• 28:27
  and then immediately switch
• 28:30
  to the most incendiary woman
• 28:33
  that has ever been seen from the Democratic socialist
• 28:36
  ranks?
• 28:37
  Is this,
• 28:38
  does this feel like a good connection?
• 28:41
  Uh,
• 28:41
  between the,
• 28:42
  what has been the past precedent and what's happening right now in the media,
• 28:46
  and there's no consequences for bad media coverage,
• 28:48
  but there are consequences,
• 28:50
  uh,
• 28:50
  for when markets get things wrong.
• 28:52
  Yeah,
• 28:52
  it's funny because I,
• 28:53
  we talked about this a little bit on the air at the time,
• 28:55
  and that I thought,
• 28:56
  I,
• 28:56
  I did have a belief that she would underperform a 20 point
• 29:00
  lead.
• 29:00
  I had no position on her with this,
• 29:02
  you know,
• 29:02
  one of the margin markets,
• 29:03
  uh,
• 29:03
  sorry,
• 29:03
  my,
• 29:04
  my eyes,
• 29:05
  I have these allergies,
• 29:05
  my eyes are watering like crazy,
• 29:07
  Steven,
• 29:07
  oh,
• 29:07
  drive me nuts,
• 29:09
  um.
• 29:09
  Uh,
• 29:10
  so,
• 29:10
  but I,
• 29:11
  I thought she would underperform 20 points.
• 29:12
  I still thought there was enough room there for her to hold it,
• 29:15
  but you make up a great point,
• 29:17
  uh,
• 29:17
  here,
• 29:17
  and I,
• 29:18
  I've come to the place now,
• 29:19
  uh,
• 29:19
  in,
• 29:20
  in Wisconsin.
• 29:20
  I'm never listening to another poll in Wisconsin.
• 29:23
  I,
• 29:23
  it's going back to 2016.
• 29:25
  Every single one of them
• 29:26
  has been off,
• 29:27
  even when they were right,
• 29:28
  you know,
• 29:28
  and it wound up,
• 29:29
  uh,
• 29:29
  successfully predicting the,
• 29:30
  the Biden win in 2020.
• 29:33
  Still missed by 7 or 8 points in that election.
• 29:35
  I mean,
• 29:36
  it's the,
• 29:36
  the polling in that state in particular,
• 29:38
  in that region in particular has been terrible for a while,
• 29:41
  and I,
• 29:42
  you know,
• 29:42
  I kind of blame myself for that,
• 29:43
  but that,
• 29:43
  again,
• 29:43
  that's,
• 29:44
  I guess personal responsibility.
• 29:45
  And that's an opportunity for traders,
• 29:47
  like that is an opportunity for traders
• 29:49
  to,
• 29:50
  the more that you know,
• 29:51
  when you see bad information out there or information that just isn't quite right.
• 29:57
  That is an opportunity for you to say,
• 30:00
  no,
• 30:00
  I've got better information and I'm going to put
• 30:03
  money in this direction,
• 30:05
  and that is how a market
• 30:07
  eventually brings us closer to truth.
• 30:09
  Now of course there are instances where people are just flat out wrong,
• 30:14
  prediction markets are not prophecies.
• 30:17
  I can't remember what the race was,
• 30:18
  I think it was in Georgia,
• 30:20
  uh,
• 30:20
  just,
• 30:20
  just the other day.
• 30:22
  Uh,
• 30:22
  with another Democratic socialist candidate who ended up sweeping their race,
• 30:26
  and you know,
• 30:27
  it was the the person who had 20% odds ended up,
• 30:30
  ended up winning.
• 30:31
  But you know,
• 30:32
  yeah,
• 30:32
  these things absolutely happen.
• 30:34
  Um,
• 30:35
  but this Bloomberg story is not able to actually point to any evidence
• 30:40
  of consumer harm,
• 30:41
  people losing money,
• 30:43
  simply the idea that fake polls could be put out there.
• 30:46
  I can put a fake poll on the internet right now,
• 30:49
  uh,
• 30:50
  and fake polls have been popping up in elections,
• 30:53
  you know,
• 30:53
  at least going back to 2.
• 30:54
  In 2012,
• 30:55
  there was an instance where the Daily Kos,
• 30:58
  uh,
• 30:58
  Daily Kos website and blog
• 31:01
  had been circulating a lot of uh totally bunk polls
• 31:05
  regarding Mitt Romney
• 31:06
  and Obama,
• 31:08
  and you know,
• 31:08
  there are again consequences for that.
• 31:10
  The media picked that up and they offer a false perception of where the race is going.
• 31:14
  But again,
• 31:15
  they just sort of sweep that under the rug,
• 31:17
  whereas when you're dealing with prediction markets,
• 31:20
  uh you're dealing with people who actually have an investment
• 31:24
  in being right,
• 31:25
  the information is going to be more high stakes and high quality.
• 31:28
  Yeah,
• 31:28
  and,
• 31:28
  and,
• 31:29
  you know,
• 31:29
  I,
• 31:29
  I don't want to get too into the weeds on nerdy probability talk here,
• 31:34
  Steven,
• 31:34
  but like,
• 31:35
  one of the things about somebody who has a 20% chance to win
• 31:38
  is they're supposed to win 20% of the time.
• 31:41
  That's what it means,
• 31:42
  right?
• 31:42
  And so when you go back and they've done studies of,
• 31:44
  of this,
• 31:45
  there was a study on,
• 31:46
  I think it was Calci of,
• 31:47
  of 74,000 markets over a very long period of time.
• 31:50
  And what they found is it was basically perfectly calibrated.
• 31:54
  If there was something that was had a 70% chance to win,
• 31:57
  it won about 70% of the time.
• 31:59
  When Francesca Hong has a 95% of the chance to win,
• 32:03
  she's supposed to lose 1 out of every 20.
• 32:06
  of those races.
• 32:07
  That is what's supposed to happen.
• 32:08
  That's what the information is communicated.
• 32:10
  People,
• 32:11
  people don't think about percentages that way.
• 32:13
  And this is,
• 32:14
  this is again where you go to the,
• 32:15
  the Bloomberg piece,
• 32:16
  and it's,
• 32:17
  it's sort of just this nanny state tone
• 32:20
  about protecting,
• 32:22
  uh,
• 32:22
  the consumer from this,
• 32:23
  this writer Erica Smith.
• 32:24
  And again,
• 32:25
  this Bloomberg story
• 32:26
  is in the opinion section,
• 32:28
  so it's one person's opinion,
• 32:30
  uh,
• 32:30
  here about how consumers need to be.
• 32:33
  Um,
• 32:34
  you know,
• 32:34
  protected from themselves,
• 32:36
  uh,
• 32:37
  when it comes to making investments in different outcomes,
• 32:40
  um,
• 32:40
  but there is no evidence in this,
• 32:42
  this write up of,
• 32:43
  of actual consumer harm done or large scale money
• 32:47
  lost,
• 32:47
  because bad information
• 32:49
  does tend to wash out,
• 32:51
  and you do get to actually
• 32:54
  change and pull out your money at any given time.
• 32:57
  There's all this false conflation.
• 32:59
  Between,
• 33:00
  like a sports bet,
• 33:02
  where you put down money on a certain outcome of a team,
• 33:05
  winning or losing,
• 33:06
  a binary choice,
• 33:07
  yes,
• 33:07
  no.
• 33:08
  Well,
• 33:08
  in those instances,
• 33:10
  once you do that,
• 33:11
  you're kind of locked in,
• 33:12
  uh,
• 33:13
  until the end of the ride.
• 33:15
  In prediction markets,
• 33:16
  you are able to move in and out of your position
• 33:19
  dynamically.
• 33:20
  Throughout the entire process.
• 33:22
  If a bad poll enters the mar the marketplace
• 33:25
  and skews perceptions of a race in California,
• 33:29
  give it a week.
• 33:31
  Give it a week,
• 33:31
  that that number is going to adjust.
• 33:33
  Um,
• 33:34
  you know,
• 33:34
  I,
• 33:35
  I am only right now,
• 33:36
  uh,
• 33:37
  staked
• 33:38
  in the AOC for Democratic nomination.
• 33:41
  Race,
• 33:42
  and that's just been such a fascinating one.
• 33:44
  I mean,
• 33:44
  I wouldn't have,
• 33:45
  I wouldn't have considered,
• 33:47
  uh,
• 33:48
  six months ago when I made that position,
• 33:52
  that AOC announcing that she's freezing her eggs
• 33:55
  would make me money.
• 33:57
  But it,
• 33:57
  it does,
• 33:58
  it changes,
• 33:59
  it changes the dynamic and the.
• 34:02
  perception of the race,
• 34:03
  she's going to run,
• 34:04
  she's actually going to do this.
• 34:06
  And if you are,
• 34:07
  yeah,
• 34:07
  and if you're making that stake,
• 34:09
  you can then back out of it.
• 34:11
  The,
• 34:11
  the point is not always to win,
• 34:13
  and I think that you,
• 34:14
  you probably appreciate this,
• 34:15
  where
• 34:16
  AOC is being undertraded,
• 34:18
  and she has been getting undertraded for the past year.
• 34:20
  She is not a 10%.
• 34:23
  Likelihood of the nomination.
• 34:24
  She's up there closer to 50%,
• 34:27
  and it might be that you are riding this out to the 50% mark and then you get out,
• 34:32
  because you don't need to actually make a,
• 34:33
  make a stake in her winning.
• 34:35
  Just that she's being undervalued
• 34:37
  and,
• 34:37
  and all of that helps,
• 34:38
  uh,
• 34:39
  you know,
• 34:39
  deliver more accurate information,
• 34:41
  uh,
• 34:41
  to the American people.
• 34:43
  Um,
• 34:43
  you led me into something here I want to get to in a second,
• 34:45
  Steven,
• 34:45
  which is a piece you actually wrote a few months ago,
• 34:48
  uh,
• 34:48
  about,
• 34:49
  uh,
• 34:49
  you know,
• 34:49
  what people call insider trading.
• 34:51
  I wanna get,
• 34:51
  I wanna take a break and come back with that on the other side.
• 35:03
  We're talking,
• 35:03
  uh,
• 35:03
  prediction markets with Stephen Kent.
• 35:05
  Uh,
• 35:05
  Steven,
• 35:05
  uh,
• 35:06
  you know,
• 35:06
  we've talked about this on the show a few times.
• 35:07
  There's a sort of a traditional
• 35:09
  set of issues that
• 35:11
  every time I do an interview,
• 35:13
  somebody asks me one of these questions.
• 35:14
  One of them is about insider trading,
• 35:16
  and we've discussed this a,
• 35:18
  a,
• 35:18
  a bunch of times and that.
• 35:19
  You know,
• 35:20
  most people I think who are trading really don't want
• 35:22
  insiders to trade because it feels like they're being,
• 35:24
  you know,
• 35:25
  violated in some way.
• 35:26
  Maybe their,
• 35:26
  uh,
• 35:27
  their,
• 35:27
  uh,
• 35:27
  experience is,
• 35:28
  is poor,
• 35:28
  and it's one of the reasons,
• 35:29
  you know,
• 35:30
  first of all,
• 35:30
  there's legal issues with it.
• 35:31
  Secondly,
• 35:32
  that the exchanges don't like you doing it
• 35:34
  because it ruins people's experience,
• 35:35
  among other things.
• 35:37
  Um,
• 35:38
  but there is a sort of philosophical academic sort of argument that,
• 35:41
  that,
• 35:41
  that exists as well,
• 35:43
  which is if these markets are
• 35:46
  designed to bring the best information possible
• 35:48
  to the people as quickly as possible,
• 35:50
  then the insiders who have that information
• 35:53
  should be incentivized
• 35:55
  to trade,
• 35:56
  right?
• 35:56
  Like we would learn about things
• 35:58
  earlier.
• 35:59
  And so,
• 36:00
  uh,
• 36:00
  layered upon that whole conversation is a point
• 36:03
  you made which I thought was really interesting.
• 36:05
  You wrote it in,
• 36:05
  uh,
• 36:05
  Pirate Wires,
• 36:07
  which is let the door knockers trade.
• 36:09
  Allowing political staffers to wager on campaign results
• 36:12
  isn't corrupt.
• 36:14
  It's maximizing the utility that prediction markets
• 36:16
  were supposed to provide in the first place.
• 36:18
  It's a really interesting take for a bunch of reasons,
• 36:21
  including stuff that we've talked about today.
• 36:23
  Can you kind of walk us through your argument here?
• 36:25
  You know,
• 36:26
  the basics of my argument that are,
• 36:28
  uh,
• 36:28
  are,
• 36:28
  if you are in a marketplace,
• 36:31
  and you are in a physical zone,
• 36:34
  where people are wagering money and placing certain bets,
• 36:37
  making investments on different outcomes,
• 36:39
  and they know nothing
• 36:42
  about the inner workings or
• 36:43
  or details of a given industry or outcome,
• 36:47
  then you You are in a casino.
• 36:49
  That is what a casino is,
• 36:50
  when you go out onto the slot machine floor,
• 36:53
  and everybody is just playing the odds,
• 36:55
  and they don't know how any of this works.
• 36:57
  But in a prediction market,
• 36:59
  you are actually supposed to,
• 37:01
  and in a market,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:03
  generally,
• 37:03
  you know,
• 37:04
  such as Wall Street,
• 37:05
  you want people who understand what is happening.
• 37:09
  Uh,
• 37:09
  to be involved
• 37:11
  in actually making investments and showing what is going to be successful.
• 37:16
  So all knowledge
• 37:18
  is not insider trading.
• 37:19
  I,
• 37:20
  I'll offer an analogy,
• 37:21
  if you are an assistant camera operator,
• 37:23
  or even an editor,
• 37:25
  on the upcoming,
• 37:26
  you know,
• 37:27
  Disney Star Wars movie that's going to be
• 37:29
  coming out with Ryan Gosling called Starfighter.
• 37:32
  Is that really any different
• 37:35
  than you,
• 37:36
  um,
• 37:36
  being a campaign staffer,
• 37:38
  trading on the success of your campaign,
• 37:41
  and you say,
• 37:43
  this movie is not going to break 80% on Rotten Tomatoes.
• 37:46
  I,
• 37:47
  I was there on the production,
• 37:49
  I don't believe in it.
• 37:50
  I,
• 37:50
  I've seen the acting,
• 37:52
  the acting isn't particularly good.
• 37:54
  That is not insider trading.
• 37:57
  Insider trading
• 37:59
  is what happened on the the set of Mr.
• 38:01
  Beast,
• 38:02
  with an editor,
• 38:03
  uh who actually knew what the outcome of a video was,
• 38:07
  and then
• 38:08
  people who actually put their thumb on the scale and the outcome.
• 38:11
  So when a campaign staffer writes your speeches,
• 38:14
  and there's a prediction market that says Donald Trump is.
• 38:17
  Going to say the word burrito,
• 38:19
  and you put burrito into the prediction market because you wrote the script.
• 38:23
  That is insider trading,
• 38:25
  not knowledge and familiarity with the inner workings of any industry or outcome.
• 38:31
  Yeah,
• 38:31
  it's,
• 38:31
  it's a,
• 38:32
  it's a
• 38:32
  difficult distinction and look,
• 38:34
  in the,
• 38:34
  the leak,
• 38:35
  this happens in Wall Street all the time,
• 38:36
  like that,
• 38:37
  that distinction's really difficult for people to,
• 38:39
  to,
• 38:39
  to track down.
• 38:40
  But like,
• 38:41
  I,
• 38:41
  I'm always amazed by people who make,
• 38:42
  uh,
• 38:43
  points
• 38:44
  against some of the stuff where they're like,
• 38:46
  you know,
• 38:46
  we've noticed that,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:48
  people who are on Calci and Polymarket,
• 38:50
  it's the people who are
• 38:51
  good at trading who win
• 38:53
  and the people who just show up
• 38:55
  and start clicking around with no knowledge.
• 38:57
  Anything that they're doing,
• 38:58
  who lose.
• 38:58
  It's like,
• 38:59
  oh,
• 38:59
  you know,
• 39:00
  uh,
• 39:00
  we've noticed people in the NBA Hall of Fame practiced a lot of basketball.
• 39:04
  Well,
• 39:04
  yes,
• 39:04
  we want,
• 39:05
  like,
• 39:05
  that's the point of a market,
• 39:06
  that people who know something about it are going to do better.
• 39:09
  It would be a really stupid market
• 39:12
  if the opposite were true.
• 39:14
  But one of the things that I thought was interesting
• 39:16
  based on our,
• 39:16
  you know,
• 39:16
  kind of surrounding our previous conversation on polling,
• 39:19
  fake,
• 39:19
  let's say fake polls,
• 39:20
  for example,
• 39:22
  one of the ways that campaigns manipulate results all the time.
• 39:25
  Is
• 39:26
  they do internal polling,
• 39:28
  they get a real picture of what's going on,
• 39:31
  and then when it doesn't support their candidate,
• 39:34
  they don't release it.
• 39:35
  They hide it,
• 39:36
  right?
• 39:36
  They don't want people to know.
• 39:38
  And,
• 39:38
  you know,
• 39:38
  they paid for the poll.
• 39:39
  It's their right to,
• 39:40
  to not release it.
• 39:42
  But like,
• 39:42
  we would prevent in at least some version of this insider trading argument,
• 39:46
  we would prevent a person who knew.
• 39:49
  That the campaign was hiding information from the American people,
• 39:52
  from
• 39:53
  expressing that in this way
• 39:55
  and winding up incentivizing them to actually get that information out there,
• 40:00
  where I feel like
• 40:01
  the opposite should be our goal.
• 40:02
  Like we,
• 40:03
  we should want to unearth that information,
• 40:06
  just like we would encourage a journalist who's getting paid,
• 40:08
  by the way,
• 40:09
  to try to get that information.
• 40:10
  Uh,
• 40:11
  to,
• 40:11
  to try to unearth it and get it to the American people,
• 40:13
  we should want the same thing,
• 40:14
  I think,
• 40:15
  out of prediction markets to deliver that information that does exist
• 40:18
  and is being hidden from us in an efficient way.
• 40:21
  You know,
• 40:22
  going back to the Bloomberg article that we discussed,
• 40:24
  it says at the very top of that article that legitimate pollsters believe
• 40:29
  the company's motive that put out the fake poll was to influence public opinion
• 40:34
  and then manipulate prediction markets for financial gain.
• 40:37
  I know a lot of pollsters.
• 40:39
  I spent a little time working at one.
• 40:41
  At one period of time,
• 40:43
  and there's no manipulation going on,
• 40:45
  but I'll tell you who trades on prediction markets,
• 40:48
  pollsters,
• 40:49
  because they have privileged information
• 40:52
  about what is going on inside campaigns.
• 40:55
  They actually have hard numbers about what's You know,
• 40:59
  how the public are feeling about things,
• 41:01
  and nobody bats an eye
• 41:03
  at pollsters who have these numbers trading,
• 41:07
  but they do bat an eye if a campaign staffer
• 41:10
  were to then receive the information that said pollsters gave to them,
• 41:14
  and then make a trade.
• 41:16
  Um,
• 41:16
  you know,
• 41:17
  these are two very different things.
• 41:19
  These are two very different things when you're talking about insider trading.
• 41:22
  Um,
• 41:23
  you know,
• 41:23
  I do think that campaign staffers,
• 41:25
  to the point of my article,
• 41:27
  should absolutely be able to participate in these markets
• 41:30
  and tell us through
• 41:32
  their investing
• 41:33
  what they actually think is going to happen.
• 41:36
  There are tons of people who work on campaigns
• 41:38
  who realize that it is a sinking ship,
• 41:41
  um,
• 41:41
  and there's no inherent conflict of interest.
• 41:44
  And,
• 41:45
  and actually,
• 41:45
  you know,
• 41:46
  putting $10 on,
• 41:47
  on the outcome of the race that you're in.
• 41:49
  I was talking to somebody just the other day who was working for,
• 41:51
  uh,
• 41:51
  you know,
• 41:51
  a,
• 41:52
  a
• 41:52
  relatively well-known campaign.
• 41:54
  It was just like,
• 41:55
  look,
• 41:56
  you know,
• 41:56
  cause he,
• 41:56
  he knows I'm a prediction market guy,
• 41:58
  and he,
• 41:58
  he doesn't work with them,
• 41:59
  but he's,
• 41:59
  he's covered them and he's done some research on them,
• 42:01
  and he was just like,
• 42:01
  I.
• 42:02
  I don't know.
• 42:03
  That's not where I would be putting my money,
• 42:04
  uh,
• 42:05
  because he was,
• 42:06
  he thought like things could crumble perhaps in the future.
• 42:10
  Uh,
• 42:10
  you know,
• 42:10
  you,
• 42:11
  you
• 42:11
  people talk,
• 42:12
  they have those conversations like that is not a,
• 42:14
  a knowledge of what the vote is going to be.
• 42:17
  You can't know that information,
• 42:18
  which is the,
• 42:18
  the final outcome.
• 42:20
  Taking other information and trying to synthesize it into an argument.
• 42:22
  I,
• 42:23
  I thought it was a really interesting point and an interesting distinction
• 42:26
  from,
• 42:26
  uh,
• 42:26
  from,
• 42:27
  uh,
• 42:27
  from the insider trading conversation.
• 42:29
  You can see this at Pirate wires.
• 42:30
  We'll we'll tweet out a link to it as well,
• 42:32
  uh,
• 42:32
  Stephen Kent.
• 42:33
  Steven,
• 42:33
  I,
• 42:34
  I,
• 42:34
  I want to,
• 42:34
  I do a segment every once in a while on the show called,
• 42:36
  uh,
• 42:37
  Here's one I kind of like.
• 42:38
  Um,
• 42:38
  when I,
• 42:39
  when I talk about,
• 42:40
  uh,
• 42:40
  just
• 42:41
  markets that I've found that are
• 42:43
  interesting.
• 42:44
  It's not that I have some inside information certainly
• 42:46
  that I don't even have like extended insight.
• 42:49
  I just like them.
• 42:49
  I,
• 42:50
  this is,
• 42:50
  this is an interesting one and my,
• 42:51
  my mind's open.
• 42:52
  I'm taking a look.
• 42:53
  I wanted to run a couple by,
• 42:55
  uh,
• 42:55
  by you and I think,
• 42:56
  uh,
• 42:56
  you have one here that I wanted to talk about as well.
• 42:59
  Um,
• 43:00
  can you tell me about the Kim Jong-un market you're looking at?
• 43:04
  Yeah,
• 43:04
  well,
• 43:05
  there's an ongoing market for who will Donald Trump meet with this year.
• 43:10
  And you know,
• 43:11
  for example,
• 43:12
  around the time when
• 43:14
  Operation Epic Fury began,
• 43:16
  I was pretty sure he was going to meet with meet with Reza Pavlavi,
• 43:20
  you know,
• 43:20
  the Iranian dissident,
• 43:22
  uh,
• 43:22
  proper heir to the throne in Iran.
• 43:26
  Who lives in Washington DC.
• 43:28
  I,
• 43:29
  I felt personally like if we are going to
• 43:31
  be taking out the Ayatollah and flipping the country,
• 43:34
  Pavlavvi will at least get a White House meeting.
• 43:37
  That has not transpired because things have have gone so poorly
• 43:41
  over the last 6 months in terms of wrapping it up.
• 43:43
  But you know,
• 43:44
  it offers,
• 43:45
  will he meet with Kim Jong-un?
• 43:46
  Now he has not met with Kim since his first term,
• 43:50
  but he said yesterday the president said,
• 43:52
  Uh,
• 43:53
  after he,
• 43:54
  uh,
• 43:54
  made some remarks about South Korea and not doing drills with them,
• 43:57
  that he intends to meet with Kim Jong-un,
• 44:00
  who he has a wonderful relationship with
• 44:03
  by the end of the year.
• 44:05
  Now,
• 44:05
  we don't know if that is the calendar year or just the next 12 months,
• 44:10
  but right now,
• 44:10
  you know,
• 44:11
  Kim Jong-un meeting is trading,
• 44:12
  yes,
• 44:13
  at 37%,
• 44:15
  no at 66%.
• 44:17
  That seems to me like a pretty good opportunity.
• 44:20
  I personally don't think that this meeting is going to occur,
• 44:24
  so you'll notice that the market has trended up for Kim since Trump made this remark.
• 44:29
  I think the Pentagon will probably shut this thing down because of tensions within
• 44:34
  um uh uh Asia and the South Pacific.
• 44:37
  I think things are too hot right now,
• 44:39
  too uncertain,
• 44:40
  and I do happen to think that the State Department will not allow that to go forward.
• 44:44
  That's an interesting case because I mean I,
• 44:46
  I,
• 44:46
  you think about the first time they met.
• 44:48
  The goal there
• 44:50
  was to
• 44:51
  basically get rid of an accelerating situation,
• 44:55
  right?
• 44:55
  Like it seemed like at the time there was a chance that
• 44:58
  maybe Kim Jong-un was going to start firing missiles and everything else,
• 45:01
  and he was trying to calm that situation
• 45:03
  by putting himself on the line in,
• 45:05
  in that,
• 45:05
  in that particular meeting.
• 45:07
  Here,
• 45:07
  really his intent seems more to be
• 45:11
  to kind of punish South Korea.
• 45:13
  Like,
• 45:13
  you know,
• 45:13
  he's just,
• 45:14
  yeah,
• 45:15
  yeah,
• 45:15
  he's like basically saying like,
• 45:16
  hey,
• 45:16
  you guys aren't helping me with Iran.
• 45:18
  And I want you to be helping me with Iran.
• 45:19
  We help you with all this stuff.
• 45:20
  You know what,
• 45:20
  maybe I'll go talk to Kim Jong-un.
• 45:22
  That doesn't seem like the same sort of thing that's going to make him go over
• 45:26
  to Pyong and you know what else,
• 45:27
  you know what else didn't,
• 45:28
  wasn't occurring in in Trump 1.0,
• 45:31
  um,
• 45:31
  North Korean troops fighting on the Ukrainian front with Russians.
• 45:35
  Uh,
• 45:36
  you know,
• 45:36
  North Korea has soldiers on the ground.
• 45:39
  Uh,
• 45:39
  fighting the Ukrainians and presumably fighting CIA operatives,
• 45:43
  not
• 45:45
  as well on that eastern front.
• 45:47
  I don't think that Donald Trump in in this current
• 45:50
  climate is going to be meeting with Kim Jong-un,
• 45:53
  so that is an opportunity to not take the bait.
• 45:57
  Uh,
• 45:57
  and invest in the other direction.
• 45:59
  Just my opinion.
• 46:00
  I will say too,
• 46:01
  as,
• 46:01
  as,
• 46:01
  as,
• 46:01
  you know,
• 46:02
  I love just talking these things out.
• 46:03
  I,
• 46:03
  I don't have a hardcore position on this one,
• 46:05
  but
• 46:05
  it is one of those things that,
• 46:07
  uh,
• 46:07
  as a general sort of rule,
• 46:10
  going against hype
• 46:12
  is a great way to look at these markets.
• 46:14
  I can't tell you,
• 46:15
  I was,
• 46:15
  I was going through,
• 46:16
  um,
• 46:16
  you know,
• 46:16
  we,
• 46:16
  we listed all of my 200+,
• 46:19
  uh,
• 46:19
  prediction market positions
• 46:21
  on the premium tier over at PredictableShow.com,
• 46:23
  and as I was going through,
• 46:24
  I had to write notes for a lot of them.
• 46:26
  And over and over again I found myself like,
• 46:27
  you know,
• 46:28
  I was trying to explain
• 46:29
  why I took this position at the time,
• 46:31
  and almost,
• 46:32
  you know,
• 46:32
  I don't know,
• 46:32
  it's felt like a quarter of them.
• 46:33
  I just was like,
• 46:34
  well,
• 46:34
  I was going against the hype because everyone was promoting this thing
• 46:37
  and then it didn't happen and now it's come all the way back to the other side.
• 46:40
  It's a great way to look at this,
• 46:42
  and it's a great way to get,
• 46:43
  you know,
• 46:43
  it's a great way to check the,
• 46:44
  the,
• 46:45
  the news diet that we have.
• 46:47
  They all get excited.
• 46:47
  They run these stories constantly.
• 46:49
  If you kind of can catch that stuff and recognize that there's,
• 46:52
  there's opportunity there.
• 46:53
  Let me give you one more here though,
• 46:54
  Steven.
• 46:54
  This one's in your wheelhouse,
• 46:56
  OK?
• 46:57
  I don't know how you feel about this,
• 46:58
  but it's one I have.
• 47:00
  Best,
• 47:01
  uh,
• 47:01
  actor
• 47:02
  at the Oscars.
• 47:03
  OK.
• 47:05
  This is coming up here.
• 47:06
  We don't know who's gonna be nominated.
• 47:08
  The market is who will be
• 47:10
  nominated for,
• 47:10
  for an Oscar.
• 47:12
  There is a Star Wars tie,
• 47:14
  uh,
• 47:14
  to this particular market,
• 47:15
  and I have a no position on
• 47:17
  Pedro Pascal,
• 47:19
  uh,
• 47:20
  in Mandalorian and Grogu.
• 47:21
  Now,
• 47:21
  this movie was not particularly well received,
• 47:24
  I would say,
• 47:25
  as a Star Wars vehicle,
• 47:27
  and my main argument here is.
• 47:29
  Pedro Vpascal does a fine job with the role.
• 47:31
  I'm not criticizing what he's doing,
• 47:33
  but
• 47:34
  the role entails that he is in a mask for almost all of it,
• 47:38
  and
• 47:38
  he's talking in a very monotone way as part of the character.
• 47:43
  He's not doing all that much heavy lifting when it comes to his acting in this role.
• 47:48
  Why would he get a best,
• 47:49
  uh,
• 47:49
  actor nomination at the Oscars?
• 47:51
  I'm a no on this one.
• 47:52
  Am I insane?
• 47:54
  Oh yeah,
• 47:54
  this is,
• 47:55
  this is a total psyop that he has even listed on there.
• 47:59
  No,
• 48:00
  no,
• 48:00
  it's 72%.
• 48:02
  Yeah,
• 48:02
  again,
• 48:03
  he doesn't have
• 48:05
  meaningful screen time besides a fistfight with a sea monster
• 48:10
  towards the end of this film,
• 48:12
  and as far as I know,
• 48:14
  I'm pretty sure the voice acting through the rest of the movie
• 48:18
  is not even
• 48:20
  uh Pedro Pascal like underneath the helmet.
• 48:23
  Um,
• 48:23
  it's a lot of voice acting work.
• 48:25
  So this is an opportunity to gut check yourself and go,
• 48:29
  does Star Wars get
• 48:31
  best actor nominations?
• 48:34
  No,
• 48:35
  no,
• 48:35
  it,
• 48:35
  it does not.
• 48:36
  Star Wars does not.
• 48:38
  Uh,
• 48:38
  do well at the Academy,
• 48:40
  even the good Star Wars doesn't do good,
• 48:43
  uh,
• 48:43
  in the Emmys,
• 48:44
  like Andor,
• 48:45
  like you,
• 48:45
  you have to really take
• 48:47
  a historical note here and go,
• 48:49
  it ain't gonna be
• 48:50
  Mandalorian and Grogu that gets them an Oscar nomination for best
• 48:55
  actor.
• 48:55
  It is safer to go with these legacy popular actors,
• 48:59
  Ryan Gosling,
• 49:00
  John Malkovich,
• 49:01
  Robert Pattinson.
• 49:02
  Ryan Gosling is having a huge year right now.
• 49:06
  Uh,
• 49:06
  Project Hail Mary is a,
• 49:08
  yeah,
• 49:08
  it's a perfect blend between
• 49:10
  popcorn movie
• 49:12
  and actually artistically sound film that did well with the critics.
• 49:16
  Um,
• 49:16
  that is a much safer direction to go in.
• 49:19
  72% no
• 49:21
  is far too low on Pedro Pascal.
• 49:24
  Yeah,
• 49:24
  because I mean you're looking at what,
• 49:25
  33% profit.
• 49:27
  On your money,
• 49:28
  uh,
• 49:28
  uh,
• 49:29
  right,
• 49:29
  right,
• 49:29
  yeah,
• 49:29
  20,
• 49:30
  yeah,
• 49:30
  70,
• 49:30
  you'd be 28%,
• 49:31
  yeah,
• 49:32
  about,
• 49:32
  about a third
• 49:33
  profit
• 49:34
  on your money in,
• 49:34
  in a couple of months,
• 49:35
  and I honestly,
• 49:36
  like I love it.
• 49:37
  I might go bigger on it after talking to you,
• 49:38
  Steven,
• 49:38
  I might go bigger on that position.
• 49:40
  So if I,
• 49:41
  you know,
• 49:41
  if I can't pay my mortgage next month,
• 49:42
  that's really your fault.
• 49:44
  Uh,
• 49:44
  I,
• 49:45
  as I said,
• 49:45
  uh,
• 49:46
  personal responsibility is dead.
• 49:47
  So,
• 49:48
  uh,
• 49:48
  we're gonna move that way.
• 49:49
  Uh,
• 49:49
  Steven Kat,
• 49:50
  media director for the Consumer Choice,
• 49:51
  uh,
• 49:52
  Center.
• 49:52
  Uh,
• 49:53
  and so many more,
• 49:54
  by the way,
• 49:54
  if you haven't read his Star Wars book,
• 49:56
  it was,
• 49:56
  it's,
• 49:56
  uh,
• 49:56
  how,
• 49:57
  I mean you had a couple,
• 49:57
  but How the Force Can Fix the World Lessons on Life,
• 50:00
  liberty,
• 50:00
  and happiness from a Galaxy Far,
• 50:02
  far away.
• 50:02
  If you love Star Wars,
• 50:03
  Stu,
• 50:03
  real quick,
• 50:04
  if I may,
• 50:04
  I got a new book coming out this December.
• 50:06
  It's called Great Escape,
• 50:07
  30 Reflections on Stoicism,
• 50:09
  Faith,
• 50:09
  and the Wisdom of Great Stories.
• 50:11
  Uh,
• 50:11
  so go over to geeky stoics.com and you can learn all about it.
• 50:14
  G Geeky Stoics.com,
• 50:16
  perfect place to find Stephen Kent.
• 50:17
  Steven,
• 50:17
  thanks so much,
• 50:18
  man.
• 50:18
  I appreciate it.
• 50:19
  We'll talk to you soon.
• 50:20
  Thanks.
• 50:21
  All right,
• 50:21
  uh,
• 50:21
  that's it for the show today.
• 50:22
  Um,
• 50:23
  we,
• 50:23
  uh,
• 50:24
  that was,
• 50:24
  that was a lot of fun today.
• 50:25
  Uh,
• 50:25
  I want to,
• 50:26
  uh,
• 50:26
  thank Steven for coming onto the program,
• 50:29
  uh,
• 50:29
  and,
• 50:29
  uh,
• 50:29
  convincing me to lay more of my money against,
• 50:31
  uh,
• 50:31
  Pedro Pascal.
• 50:32
  Uh,
• 50:33
  we'll have more coming up next week.
• 50:34
  I,
• 50:34
  I meant to mention,
• 50:35
  by the way,
• 50:35
  uh,
• 50:35
  um,
• 50:36
  that,
• 50:36
  uh,
• 50:37
  South Carolina is also the runoff next week.
• 50:39
  So we have
• 50:40
  South Carolina,
• 50:41
  we have,
• 50:41
  I think it's is it Oklahoma?
• 50:42
  In South Carolina,
• 50:43
  I don't know.
• 50:43
  We'll get you,
• 50:44
  we'll get you all the details on the elections.
• 50:45
  There are still a few more primaries left,
• 50:47
  so
• 50:47
  some stuff to dive into.
• 50:49
  Wanna remind you,
• 50:49
  if you're interested in that sort of stuff,
• 50:51
  we're gonna be covering those elections
• 50:52
  live as the votes come out.
• 50:54
  We will give you all my picks as
• 50:55
  well as part of the PredictableShow.com premium tier.
• 50:59
  We would love to have you there.
• 51:00
  There's a bunch of great features.
• 51:02
  You're not gonna regret that if you're trading in these markets,
• 51:04
  especially.
• 51:05
  Uh,
• 51:05
  lots of great information as well.
• 51:07
  And then,
• 51:07
  uh,
• 51:07
  in addition to that,
• 51:09
  the free,
• 51:09
  uh,
• 51:10
  resource is available now too.
• 51:11
  If you just wanna get started on prediction markets.
• 51:13
  Uh,
• 51:14
  we've got a digital resource for you
• 51:15
  called Predictable 101.
• 51:17
  We have videos coming
• 51:18
  as well,
• 51:18
  but if you go to
• 51:20
  predictable.
• 51:20
  Show.com.
• 51:21
  Just put your email address in,
• 51:23
  we'll email you this right away.
• 51:24
  It's like,
• 51:24
  yeah,
• 51:25
  I don't know,
• 51:25
  20 pages or so
• 51:27
  of just kind of step by step stuff.
• 51:28
  Everything from like,
• 51:29
  I,
• 51:29
  how do I sign up to an account and how do I fund it?
• 51:32
  How do I trade?
• 51:33
  What are these,
• 51:33
  you know,
• 51:34
  what are these features,
• 51:35
  how do I use them?
• 51:36
  Just all in there if you wanna get familiar and get started before uh we go
• 51:40
  even deeper on that with the videos coming up here in the next few weeks.
• 51:43
  So,
• 51:43
  lots of stuff for you.
• 51:44
  That's a free resource,
• 51:45
  predictableShow.com.
• 51:46
  Just give us your email and we will email right back to you.
• 51:49
  Uh,
• 51:50
  as soon as you do.
• 51:50
  OK,
• 51:51
  that's all the time we have for today.
• 51:52
  We will talk to you,
• 51:54
  uh,
• 51:54
  next week.
• 51:55
  Uh,
• 51:55
  I'm gonna be,
• 51:56
  uh,
• 51:56
  traveling.
• 51:57
  I'm gonna be doing,
• 51:58
  uh,
• 51:58
  the Gutfeld show,
• 51:59
  uh,
• 52:00
  on,
• 52:00
  uh,
• 52:00
  the Gutfeld show on,
• 52:01
  uh,
• 52:02
  Monday.
• 52:03
  Uh,
• 52:03
  so that's gonna be a lot of fun.
• 52:04
  I'll be up in New York for that,
• 52:05
  but we'll still be doing episodes of Predictable for you
• 52:07
  all week.
• 52:08
  Thanks so much for joining us.
• 52:09
  We'll see you then.