Latest / Simply Bitcoin / JP Morgan SAYS Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Is OVER!! | EP 1372

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JP Morgan SAYS Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle Is OVER!! | EP 1372 · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  One's been focused on Bitcoin's recent dip to 99 K.
• 0:03
  The world's largest bank has just doubled down and confirmed
• 0:07
  the four year cycle is over. They continue to stand by their
• 0:11
  170K Bitcoin prediction and they even think it can happen in the
• 0:16
  next 180 days, but it's not for the reason that you probably
• 0:21
  think. So let's break this down for you
• 0:24
  guys. Let me get everything going.
• 0:26
  Of course I'm with Sophie today, Nico.
• 0:30
  Nico needs to go take a shower. So he's not he's not doing the
• 0:32
  show. No, I'm trolling.
• 0:35
  He's not here to defend himself. Sorry, guys.
• 0:36
  Sorry, guys. Anyways, let's pull this up.
• 0:38
  So this came out this morning and if you've been watching the
• 0:42
  show, you're probably like, I remember you guys were talking
• 0:46
  about this the other day and we did mention that another JP
• 0:50
  Morgan analyst was saying that Bitcoin is going to 165 K by the
• 0:54
  end of the year. But this is not the same
• 0:57
  analyst. This is not the same report.
• 0:59
  We're not just rehashing the news.
• 1:01
  They have doubled down on this price prediction.
• 1:05
  And when you read between the lines, it's like the title says,
• 1:08
  it seems to me that JP Morgan is essentially saying the four year
• 1:13
  is over. Now.
• 1:14
  I know that's kind of the common, common meme right now.
• 1:18
  Four year cycle is dead. It's it's over.
• 1:20
  It's not happening anymore. I think there's still a little
• 1:23
  bit of debate open whether this is the case, whether we topped
• 1:27
  in October at 126, Are we going to continue to pump into 2026
• 1:32
  and further into 2028? Again, we've been kind of making
• 1:35
  the case on the last few shows why people believe this.
• 1:38
  Essentially, it all boils down to the liquidity that they have
• 1:42
  to inject into the system. So it seems like, you know Jamie
• 1:47
  Dimon out there. Well, it's not actually Jamie
• 1:49
  Dimon, it's more the analyst at JP Morgan.
• 1:51
  But this isn't going out without Jamie Dimon's approval.
• 1:54
  You can make the case for a few different things, and I'm sure
• 1:57
  we'll discuss which view we think it is.
• 1:59
  But before I get into that, before we speculate more and I
• 2:02
  ramble, let's break this down for you guys.
• 2:04
  So The Block reported that JP Morgan sees Bitcoin's price
• 2:08
  reaching about 170 K within the next 6 to 12 months.
• 2:13
  Again, they did say a few weeks ago, 165 K, they upped it a
• 2:17
  little bit. I believe the last time they had
• 2:20
  their analysts come out, they said 165 K by end of year.
• 2:24
  So you could argue that this new report, this new analysis is
• 2:28
  slightly less bullish because this is 170 K within the next 6
• 2:33
  to 12 months. But if you've been a bitcoiner
• 2:35
  for a long time, then it sounds like they're saying the four
• 2:39
  year cycle is done or the what I think is a worse meme, you know,
• 2:43
  the, the extended cycle. I, I, I just think that's a bad
• 2:47
  meme in and of itself. But I do believe we are entering
• 2:52
  different waters here, uncharted water.
• 2:54
  So I'm going to read a little bit guys.
• 2:55
  I know Opti read along, you guys hate it, but we got it.
• 2:58
  We got to give you guys the source material.
• 3:00
  OK, So it goes on again. It could go up to 107 within the
• 3:05
  next 6 to 12 months as leverage resets.
• 3:08
  And this is one of the basis of their analysis, what they think
• 3:12
  is actually going on, which I think is giving a lot of us some
• 3:16
  new kind of some new material here.
• 3:19
  I, I think we've all been looking in the wrong places
• 3:21
  right now. Again, I've been making the case
• 3:23
  for you guys on the show for the last couple of weeks that since
• 3:26
  the institutions came into Bitcoin, things are changing, at
• 3:31
  least based on what we've seen in the past.
• 3:33
  And we can't be looking at the same metrics that we used to
• 3:35
  look at because they're not trading on the same ideas as
• 3:40
  retail bitcoiners have been. So one of their new metrics is
• 3:45
  the leverage resets really perpetual futures and its
• 3:49
  relative volatility versus gold improves again.
• 3:51
  The last time they did their report, it was hinged on this
• 3:54
  idea of the relative volatility versus gold.
• 3:57
  So the analysis, the analyst, sorry, led by managing director,
• 4:02
  I'm not going to try to say your last name, sorry.
• 4:05
  Nicholas said in a Wednesday report yesterday that the crypto
• 4:09
  market is corrected by close to 20% from its recent highs, with
• 4:12
  the sharpest decline occurring on October 10 amid record
• 4:15
  liquidations in perpetual futures, the largest in history.
• 4:19
  Again, that was a little while ago when we were all sitting
• 4:22
  here and the IT looked like it was just going to freefall, but
• 4:26
  it it corrected. And then of course, November 3rd
• 4:29
  we saw another correction the followed by again a smaller
• 4:33
  liquidation in November 3rd. Despite the back-to-back sell
• 4:35
  offs, the analyst said the deleveraging phase in perpetual
• 4:38
  futures now appears largely over the ratio of open interest and
• 4:42
  Bitcoin perpetual futures. The market cap has fallen from
• 4:44
  above average levels back to its historical norms within weeks.
• 4:49
  So we did see two huge liquidation events.
• 4:52
  This is what we're dealing with right now.
• 4:53
  Everyone's wondering what is going on.
• 4:56
  We're like, man, is the cycle over?
• 4:59
  I know my, my boy's in the chat right now is like, cycle's over,
• 5:02
  bro. Pack it up.
• 5:03
  I, I and I might troll him a little bit at the end of the
• 5:05
  show. We're, we're actually, we, we
• 5:07
  might end this show a little bullish because Nico's not here
• 5:10
  and he can't tell me not to be bullish on the show.
• 5:12
  So I am going to rehash a combo that Sophie, Nico and I just had
• 5:15
  this morning, but that that'll come at the end of the show
• 5:17
  anyways. Overall, we believe that the
• 5:19
  perpetual futures are the most important instrument to watch in
• 5:23
  the current juncture. And the message from the recent
• 5:26
  stabilization is that deleveraging and perpetual
• 5:29
  futures is likely behind us. Now you're probably wondering
• 5:32
  what exactly the perpetual futures are.
• 5:35
  It is not just the CMEI know everyone's looking at the
• 5:38
  Bitcoin futures prices on the CME.
• 5:40
  There is a gap at like 91 K, which everyone's saying we
• 5:44
  haven't closed yet. We might go back to that.
• 5:46
  But the CME futures is not a perpetual future.
• 5:50
  It's really it's just like a more standard future.
• 5:53
  The perpetual futures are usually right now on offshore
• 5:57
  exchanges like Binance and Bitmex.
• 5:59
  And if you don't understand the perpetual futures, they are a
• 6:02
  little different than normal futures.
• 6:03
  One, they have no expiration date and two, probably the more
• 6:07
  important idea is they don't actually have to have any spot
• 6:11
  position in Bitcoin. They're usually highly levered
• 6:15
  and they do have like a a real interesting a balancing of long
• 6:19
  and short positions to reduce the, you know, the price
• 6:23
  deviation from spot. So you it's just it's a lot more
• 6:26
  complicated than just the futures.
• 6:28
  But again, the point for you guys is JP Morgan or their
• 6:32
  analyst over there is saying that the perpetual futures,
• 6:35
  what's happening on these offshore exchanges is really
• 6:39
  what's driving the Bitcoin price, which is a lot different
• 6:42
  than what other Bitcoiners have been saying.
• 6:44
  Again, we've been telling you guys that, hey, since the
• 6:47
  institutions are here, it makes perfect sense to be watching the
• 6:51
  Bitcoin ETF inflows. That is an indicator of what the
• 6:55
  Wall Street wants to do with Bitcoin.
• 6:58
  Wall Street themselves. JP Morgan, again, I, I, I troll
• 7:01
  all the time. But you know, Jamie Dimon, you
• 7:04
  could argue trollingly, is the real president of the United
• 7:08
  States. Him and Larry Fink are the real
• 7:10
  ones running the world. There's a couple of presidents
• 7:13
  of the United States. Yeah, yeah.
• 7:17
  So this is what Jamie Dimon, or rather JP Morgan analysts are
• 7:21
  saying, that you got to watch the perpetual futures, not just
• 7:24
  the ETF inflows, not just what's going on with the spot price,
• 7:27
  but the perpetual futures is really what's driving the price
• 7:31
  here. Obviously, if you've been in
• 7:33
  Bitcoin for a while, you do understand, you know, the CME
• 7:37
  Gap meme that yes, the futures do, you know, futures prices do
• 7:40
  drive the Bitcoin price. And if there's gaps in the
• 7:44
  futures price, it usually acts as a magnet.
• 7:47
  And so they're going a step further.
• 7:49
  They're like what's going on on these offshore exchanges is
• 7:52
  really what's kind of affecting the Bitcoin price.
• 7:55
  Now going a little further here on the positive side, JP Morgan
• 8:01
  analysts noted that the recent rise in gold volatility has made
• 8:04
  Bitcoin more attractive to investors on a risk adjusted
• 8:08
  basis. Again, this is going into the
• 8:10
  idea and I think this is what most people were thinking.
• 8:13
  Is that OK? I don't know if you guys been
• 8:15
  watching the gold price, but it has been struggling the last
• 8:18
  week, week or two. You know, the last couple of
• 8:21
  days it has corrected. It seems like the gold bull run.
• 8:25
  I'm not going to say it's over, but it is cooling off.
• 8:28
  And there has been this, this idea that if any of that capital
• 8:32
  of a small portion of that capital rolls into Bitcoin, then
• 8:35
  bitcoins going to pump. They're saying, you know,
• 8:38
  something similar, that it Bitcoin does look more
• 8:41
  attractive considering the risk adjusted basis to gold.
• 8:45
  Of course, they're all chasing the gold price right now.
• 8:47
  Well, they were chasing the gold price and I think that's what
• 8:49
  most people were thinking is, okay, gold's kind of cooling
• 8:53
  off. That's going to go into Bitcoin.
• 8:55
  That's what's going to make the Bitcoin price go up.
• 8:58
  JP Morgan analysts are like, you know, that that could be one of
• 9:01
  the cases that could be one of the bull cases here.
• 9:04
  But watching what happens in the PERT futures is really they
• 9:07
  think what's driving it anyways. The Bitcoin to gold volatility
• 9:10
  ratio has drifted further below 2, implying that Bitcoin
• 9:13
  currently consumes about 1.8 times more risk capital than
• 9:16
  gold. And based on this relationship,
• 9:18
  the analysts estimated that Bitcoin's current market cap of
• 9:22
  around 2.1 trillion. It might be a little lower right
• 9:25
  now would need to rise by nearly 60 7% quote implying A
• 9:30
  theoretical Bitcoin price close to $170,000 to match the
• 9:34
  approximately $6.2 trillion of total private sector involvement
• 9:39
  and go through ETF and physical holdings And the current Bitcoin
• 9:43
  price is $68,000 less than what they are kind of forecasting
• 9:49
  here relative to gold, which you know on in this mechanical
• 9:54
  exercise implies significant upside for Bitcoin over the next
• 9:57
  6 to 12 months. Again, they are doubling down on
• 10:02
  their perspective that they think end a year 165 K.
• 10:06
  So it's hard to kind of grass in your mind, are they saying 165K
• 10:12
  by end of year or did they just kind of supersede their old
• 10:16
  prediction and saying actually it's going to be 170 K within
• 10:20
  the next 6 to 12 months, which does align to a lot of the
• 10:23
  things we've been hearing from Jeff Kendrick of Standard
• 10:26
  Charter. Arthur Hayes has been saying
• 10:28
  something similar. We've seen some problems in the
• 10:31
  regional banking. We're seeing some problems in
• 10:34
  the repo market. It seems for all intents and
• 10:37
  purposes that QE is back on the table.
• 10:40
  They are injecting the system with more liquidity and we all
• 10:43
  know what is what the Arthur Hayes thesis is.
• 10:47
  It's essentially, uh oh, we have a phone ringing.
• 10:53
  Oh, sorry, sorry, guys. This is connected to someone
• 10:56
  else apology. This is what Arthur Hayes has
• 10:59
  been saying, that we're essentially going to be pumping
• 11:01
  until the end of Trump's presidency.
• 11:03
  We all know what he wants to do. He wants to lower interest
• 11:06
  rates. They want to basically print
• 11:07
  their way out of the debt. The only way they can do that is
• 11:10
  by injecting mass amounts of liquidity into the system and
• 11:13
  literally devalue their debt, the national debt.
• 11:16
  OK, So that is the kind of breakdown from JP Morgan.
• 11:23
  Now I did bring up the perpetual futures charts here.
• 11:27
  It's not really saying too much, but I will show you guys.
• 11:30
  So this is the Binance Bitcoin to USD T to tether perpetual
• 11:36
  futures contracts. It's looking just as ugly as the
• 11:40
  spot Bitcoin price here. And I couldn't find the Bitmex
• 11:43
  1, the Bitmex perk futures, but I think this is kind of what
• 11:48
  you're seeing here. So it's, you know, holding up at
• 11:50
  roughly a little bit above 100K. So it's barely holding on to the
• 11:55
  100K price. Now going to the second point of
• 12:00
  that article from the JP Morgan analyst, this idea of what's
• 12:05
  going on with the gold markets, the gold volatility seems to be
• 12:08
  cooling off. The relative basis to Bitcoin
• 12:12
  seems to be kind of balancing itself out.
• 12:14
  And there was actually a really good tweet by was it VJ?
• 12:19
  Let me pull that up real quick. I, I didn't pull it put this
• 12:22
  into my my show notes here. So I will pull that up real
• 12:25
  quick. And he's making the case of gold
• 12:29
  cooling down and Bitcoin, yes, it's kind of corrected, but it
• 12:34
  seems like he's getting kind of bullish here.
• 12:36
  We're seeing an interesting divergent going on.
• 12:39
  So forgive me, guys, I should have added this to my notes
• 12:42
  here. But it is interesting that JP
• 12:46
  Morgan analysts, or rather Jamie Dimon, maybe himself, it's more
• 12:50
  bullish than most bitcoiners are on the price currently.
• 12:53
  I'm I'm going to troll Sophie a little later because she's
• 12:55
  feeling she's feeling a little beaten down right now.
• 12:58
  No, I think what they're bullish on is how much money they could
• 13:02
  make from this, right. So part of the reason that they
• 13:05
  haven't shilled Bitcoin to their clients in the past is because
• 13:09
  they didn't really figure out the mechanisms that they could
• 13:12
  use to kind of profit from it as a bank.
• 13:16
  And I think that now with the ETF, they've been able to figure
• 13:20
  that out and lock that down and they're finally offering
• 13:24
  Bitcoin, or at least what we call Bitcoin exposure because
• 13:28
  it's it's paper Bitcoin to their clients.
• 13:33
  And, you know, pensions, sovereign wealth, money, it's
• 13:35
  all possibly trickling in because of this financial
• 13:40
  traditional finance instrument. And it's a long term thing.
• 13:44
  I think that's why they're saying that it's the end of
• 13:46
  cycles. A lot of these people aren't
• 13:49
  willing to take the risk into something that was once
• 13:52
  perceived as volatile or subversive, You know, black
• 13:55
  magic Internet money. Now it's backed by, you know,
• 14:00
  the suits. And when the people in suits
• 14:02
  come in, people feel a lot more confident in their ability to
• 14:06
  store their wealth, even though, you know, it's it's kind of like
• 14:10
  a wolf in sheep's clothing, right?
• 14:12
  It's like, now we're going to make you rich.
• 14:15
  Like now we believe that Bitcoin is going to hit 170 K.
• 14:19
  And it's like we've been saying this all along.
• 14:22
  First of all, second of all, no, it's not in your hands.
• 14:28
  And third of all, it like nothing has changed with respect
• 14:34
  to the people who think that they're getting exposure to
• 14:36
  Bitcoin. That's just my opinion.
• 14:38
  I think that that's part of the reason why we haven't seen the
• 14:42
  pump that we were all expecting. I think the people in suits have
• 14:46
  come in and they have manipulated the market to an
• 14:49
  extent that it's difficult for retail to really catch up.
• 14:55
  I think just like 2 days ago BlackRock dumped like $200
• 14:59
  million worth of Bitcoin. I think, I think that I saw this
• 15:03
  morning their clients sold like 485 million as well.
• 15:07
  It's. Climbing.
• 15:08
  It's climbing more and more and like we're seeing it reflected
• 15:11
  in the price and like what is someone who is invested in
• 15:14
  retail to do? What is someone who, you know, a
• 15:18
  pleb who bought at 70,000 or 60,000 or whatever?
• 15:23
  Like it's like maybe not even someone who was in Bitcoin for
• 15:26
  that long but had these expectations OF200K by the end
• 15:30
  of the year. What are they supposed to do?
• 15:33
  Like you, all you can do is just hold and wait, and if you can,
• 15:37
  if you're lucky enough, stack more Bitcoin, you know?
• 15:41
  Literally doing nothing is the hardest thing to be doing.
• 15:45
  Have you ever tried meditating? Yeah, I'm great at meditating.
• 15:48
  Oh, I'm terrible at it. I'm I meditate every day.
• 15:52
  I. I can't sit still, I can't.
• 15:54
  Like my mind just goes 1,000,000 miles an hour.
• 15:56
  I think that's just like the mom and me.
• 15:58
  I literally have to meditate before I come into work because
• 16:01
  then I got to deal with Nico, so you know I have to meditate.
• 16:04
  How do you think I'm so Zen all the time?
• 16:06
  I got to do at least a little bit of meditating in the morning
• 16:08
  anyways. Anyways, enough of my my daily
• 16:11
  life here. Enough of my daily struggles
• 16:14
  here. I found the tweet.
• 16:15
  No, it was Nick Bodia. Sorry, I thought it was DJ and
• 16:18
  he goes unique, bullish, divergent in the Bitcoin price.
• 16:22
  Price made a lower low, which is what we've all kind of lived
• 16:25
  through, while price versus gold made a higher low.
• 16:28
  Good evening. Count your blessings.
• 16:30
  So this is an interesting thing. Again, I'm going to show you the
• 16:33
  the gold price here. This is just first, the gold
• 16:37
  price. As you can see, what was this
• 16:40
  day, October 20, one October 21st is when we started to see
• 16:47
  the gold price pull out or cool off a little bit, sorry.
• 16:51
  And if I zoom out on the monthly chart, if my Internet works,
• 16:55
  jeez, maybe this is trading view.
• 16:58
  Let's see, let's see, Trading View is dying on me.
• 17:02
  Oh, that's the Bitcoin chart. Sorry guys here we go one week
• 17:07
  let's go to the month everyone Oh wait, why is it?
• 17:11
  Oh whatever this is a Bitcoin price.
• 17:13
  This is this is the one I wanted to show you anyways, as you can
• 17:17
  see, high or low, so I'll go back here.
• 17:20
  Let me go back to the Bitcoin price and kind of show you what
• 17:26
  Nick was saying yeah, Bitcoins made a lower low on the price
• 17:31
  again, you know, low or low. We went a little lower.
• 17:34
  You can see here is June low or low or you can go to September,
• 17:38
  either one. We basically killed all of the
• 17:41
  2025 games. We are at a lower low on Bitcoin
• 17:47
  price, spot price, but we are on a higher low in comparison to
• 17:53
  gold, which is one of the things we've been kind of watching for
• 17:56
  a long time. A lot of people been saying,
• 17:58
  hey, yeah, Bitcoins been doing OK, but like, we haven't broken
• 18:04
  all time high in gold terms yet. And remember, Nico had this
• 18:07
  whole debate with Peter Schiff and that was his main point.
• 18:12
  And it's like, yeah, you know, he's right on that front.
• 18:14
  We haven't really broke out in gold terms yet.
• 18:17
  And then of course, gold rallies and Bitcoin does nothing and
• 18:21
  we're just like, OK, crazy, crazy stuff.
• 18:24
  Anyways, I'm gonna wrap this part up by what Samson Mao said
• 18:27
  again, everyone is wondering right now, are the Wall Street
• 18:34
  analysts correct here? Of course, Sailor's been kind of
• 18:37
  saying that's what he said yesterday on the show, or rather
• 18:39
  in a clip on the show. He said, look, the Wall Street
• 18:42
  analysts are predicting 150K by the end of the year.
• 18:45
  Now can we really believe them? I, I mean, they've, they've been
• 18:48
  in the market for two years. Of course they have years of
• 18:51
  experience kind of charting and analyzing markets.
• 18:55
  Is Bitcoin a different beast or is it just normal psychology
• 18:58
  playing out in a more free market hence why it's so
• 19:01
  volatile? Or are the Bitcoin cycles still
• 19:05
  in play? I have friends that do tell me
• 19:07
  the Bitcoin cycle still in play actually update.
• 19:10
  I don't know if my boys in the chat he was saying, look, if we
• 19:13
  can't break 126 K again by the end of the year, then you know,
• 19:19
  by like March or something, it's going to dump.
• 19:21
  And I'm like, bro, like I could have made that call too.
• 19:24
  Like, yeah, if we if we don't break all time high here, then
• 19:28
  it's going to be a rough Q2 though.
• 19:31
  I don't think he's he's literally just like TA chart
• 19:34
  bowling. He's just like I look at the
• 19:35
  four hour chart, bro and the weekly and I and this is what
• 19:38
  I'm making my trades based on. I'm like, yeah, but there is
• 19:43
  macro influences into the price now.
• 19:46
  And that's kind of the big uncertainty going on is how much
• 19:50
  money and how quickly can they inject that liquidity into the
• 19:54
  system. And if that happened and it's a
• 19:56
  boatload of capital completely off the table, everything we
• 20:00
  know about Bitcoin because we all know what's going to happen
• 20:03
  when they print a lot of dollars anyways.
• 20:05
  Last one I want to share. Do we know what's going to
• 20:08
  happen? Because.
• 20:10
  Yes, the more they print. Really.
• 20:13
  Because last. Time the more assets have to go
• 20:15
  up. Yeah, but the last time they
• 20:16
  printed the price just Pew crashed.
• 20:22
  Yeah, but the also the last time they printed was 2020 and we've
• 20:25
  gone up a lot. That's true.
• 20:28
  It did crash again. Bitcoin is the most hopeful.
• 20:31
  I'm like your friend. I'm I'm minute charting right
• 20:34
  now. I have, I like have the little
• 20:37
  thing that tells you the price of Bitcoin in the living room
• 20:40
  and I just look at it every like every couple of minutes and I'm
• 20:43
  just like, did it change? Did it go up?
• 20:45
  Are we are we good now? Is this nightmare over?
• 20:49
  Yeah, guys, you're going to, you're going to have to show
• 20:51
  Sophie some love on the show. She's a little demoralized right
• 20:54
  now at the price, the show, the work.
• 20:56
  It's the hormones. Yeah, we we'll blame the baby.
• 20:59
  We'll blame the oven. OK, here is Samson's Mao take.
• 21:04
  And it does kind of connect, well, it's really more big, I'm
• 21:07
  going to be honest, a little more big, but it does kind of
• 21:11
  connect with what the JP Morgan analysts are saying.
• 21:14
  So maybe he's having these, maybe he is the, you know, the
• 21:17
  quaint, the quant at JP Morgan. I I didn't, I didn't, I didn't.
• 21:24
  That was that was a joke. It might have been a bad one
• 21:26
  anyways, all right here here is this tweet.
• 21:31
  Bitcoin has basically been flat for 2025.
• 21:34
  If you believe in cycles, then it hasn't topped.
• 21:36
  That means a longer cycle cycle top in 2026 or it means a
• 21:40
  generational bull run for a decade like gold post ETF or it
• 21:45
  means no more cycles again, AKA the Omega cycle plan.
• 21:50
  Accordingly, he's still on on the the idea that the the bull
• 21:55
  run hasn't even started. So Opti pull up the one minute
• 21:58
  chart now. Dude, it is not one minute chart
• 22:01
  time. We only do one minute chart when
• 22:02
  it when it pumps or it dumps live on the show.
• 22:05
  OK, so that's where it's fun. Anyways, this is where I'm going
• 22:12
  to bring Sophie in. This is where we're going to
• 22:14
  have a discussion here because I think the big elephant here is
• 22:18
  we got to remember 1. I don't think Wall Street
• 22:22
  necessarily, like you said, has our or the Bitcoin network's
• 22:26
  best interest in mind. They, they just want to make
• 22:30
  their fees on top of it. You could argue on like a more
• 22:34
  bully side that since they are so greedy, they want to see
• 22:38
  Bitcoin go up and maybe they know that the liquidity cycle's
• 22:42
  coming, the big print is coming, etcetera, etcetera.
• 22:45
  I know Jamie Dimon's been out here saying for a while that the
• 22:48
  US economy is not in a good place.
• 22:51
  He's been positioning himself. I think that's why they, they
• 22:54
  did the Bitcoin collateral move. And of course they're, they're
• 22:57
  moving in the stable coins, etcetera.
• 23:00
  So you could argue there's, there's a couple different
• 23:02
  arguments, but I think we got to remember Jimmy Diamond's been
• 23:06
  one of the biggest critics of Bitcoin.
• 23:08
  He's been one of the biggest haters of Bitcoin.
• 23:11
  He's said multiple times he's never going to talk about
• 23:14
  Bitcoin again. And then he stealth launches
• 23:16
  some Bitcoin products and he's like, actually, you know, give
• 23:19
  me your Bitcoin, you know. He, he said that this was
• 23:22
  against his will, that apparently he had to launch this
• 23:26
  even though he didn't want to. Like he basically got
• 23:29
  outnumbered at his own company. And that's why they have a
• 23:33
  Bitcoin ETF now or whatever they're, you know, doing over
• 23:37
  there. I don't care 'cause I buy real
• 23:39
  Bitcoin, but I just who listen? Who cares what these bankers are
• 23:47
  saying? At the end of the day, they
• 23:51
  can't really predict what's going to happen.
• 23:54
  This they're fresh. This is their first cycle.
• 23:59
  We all have to remember that. And if they think that they can
• 24:03
  really like predict what is going to happen here, I think
• 24:07
  they're sadly mistaken and, and, and Bitcoin is going to serve
• 24:12
  them their little slice of humble pie.
• 24:15
  And I don't know, I just, I don't know.
• 24:18
  I know that they're moving billions.
• 24:20
  I know that there there has to be some sort of price
• 24:22
  manipulation. I know that, you know, retail
• 24:26
  has turned into the traditional finance side of things.
• 24:29
  But I I also think that Bitcoin is going to do what it does and
• 24:33
  what it's always done, which is go up.
• 24:35
  It's just I don't know when. And that's the thing that has me
• 24:39
  stressed out and I, and it's funny because Nico said it the
• 24:42
  other day so well, markets always do the opposite of what
• 24:46
  people actually think they're going to do because if they
• 24:49
  didn't, then everybody would be rich.
• 24:51
  Every like this would be easy. Holding Bitcoin would be easy,
• 24:54
  would be predictable, would be stable.
• 24:57
  And for the most part, it has been on a long term, but there's
• 25:00
  been a lot of pain along the way.
• 25:03
  And you know, personally, at least for me, this has been in
• 25:07
  one of the more disappointing parts of my Bitcoin journey
• 25:12
  because of the level of expectation that I have and
• 25:15
  because of like this short term, kind of like, which, you know,
• 25:21
  as a bitcoiner, you're not supposed to think this way.
• 25:23
  But but I'm human and I do think this way.
• 25:25
  It's it's hard not to look at the chart minute by minute and
• 25:30
  watch the price pump when you don't think that it's supposed
• 25:34
  to. So I just have a lot of
• 25:36
  questions. I'm confused.
• 25:38
  I and I want to see number go up and I know it will.
• 25:41
  It's just, you know, a number a, a question of patience, I guess,
• 25:46
  but whatever. I don't have really much to say
• 25:48
  on it other than banks don't know what the fuck they're
• 25:52
  doing. All right, I'm going to ask the
• 25:55
  audience here because I literally brought this up to
• 25:59
  Nico. And on the one hand, again, you
• 26:02
  guys know, I've been kind of, you know, dipping my toes in the
• 26:05
  macro geopolitical stuff because I, I think that is really what's
• 26:09
  driving all of the chaos in the world right now.
• 26:11
  There is a monetary reordering happening right now.
• 26:14
  And I think understanding where the chips may fall is probably
• 26:18
  the most important alpha you can have right now.
• 26:21
  And so with that as the context of what I'm going to say, on the
• 26:26
  one hand, I do understand the thesis that it's going to pump
• 26:30
  until 2028 because liquidity is going to go insane.
• 26:33
  Would they have to inject the system with liquidity?
• 26:37
  And we all know last time Trump was in, he literally gave his
• 26:40
  helicopter dollars. And so like, I think it was $7
• 26:43
  trillion that he printed and injected into the system, which
• 26:47
  was a lot at the time. Then Biden came in, I think it
• 26:49
  was a 8 trillion. And so I'm my, my simple, simple
• 26:52
  math, simple guess here is it's going to be at least 8 trillion,
• 26:56
  if not more amount of liquidity being entered into the system.
• 27:00
  So the Bitcoin pump until 2028 cycle.
• 27:04
  I think it makes a lot of sense when you put it in the
• 27:07
  geopolitical kind of landscape. When I brought this up to Nico
• 27:10
  this morning, he said 170. Jamie Dimon thinks Bitcoin's
• 27:14
  going to 170 K Damn, that confirms it.
• 27:17
  We're going into a bear market. Made-up like this is the first
• 27:22
  time these people have ever entered this market and they
• 27:25
  think that because they're the biggest institutions in the
• 27:27
  world that they can manipulate the price forever.
• 27:30
  But this is such a different asset.
• 27:33
  This is like the first actual like heart asset in the world
• 27:38
  that has the level of convenience that, you know, the
• 27:42
  banks offer essentially, well, you know, convenience for people
• 27:46
  who take the time to learn about it.
• 27:47
  But I, you know, I, I think that I agree with Nico here.
• 27:52
  Like the banks are called everything that they that's a
• 27:54
  thing. Like if you follow the pattern,
• 27:57
  everything that the institutions have said, everything that the
• 28:01
  government has said, it almost feels like the more good news we
• 28:04
  hear, the more the price dumps. And so I'm kind of, I'm kind of
• 28:09
  that like, you know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me
• 28:13
  twice, shame on me. I'm tired.
• 28:15
  I'm tired of listening to these people and I'm, I'm kind of just
• 28:19
  like at this point, shutting it all out and everyone who's
• 28:24
  saying like, oh, it's going to go to like all these price
• 28:27
  predictions. The reality is nobody knows
• 28:29
  what's going to happen that nobody has the crystal ball.
• 28:33
  Everybody has theories. Everybody has this good news.
• 28:36
  Like at least thankfully, like I am grateful that the obstacles
• 28:40
  are out of the way and I'm grateful for to, to the Trump
• 28:42
  administration for that at least.
• 28:44
  But you know, it's like Nico said yesterday, the Trump
• 28:47
  administration has been a bear market and the, and these
• 28:51
  institutions, ever since they came in, like we haven't seen
• 28:55
  the same returns that we've seen in the in the previous years.
• 28:58
  This was supposed to be a massive bull market by all
• 29:03
  intents and purposes. We have the good news, we have
• 29:05
  the ETFs, we have all this money in flowing, and yet we see more
• 29:11
  infighting than ever. And the price is not what it's
• 29:15
  supposed to be at. Frankly, like this is breaking
• 29:19
  all of the molds, it's breaking all of the patterns.
• 29:22
  And I can't really. The only thing that's different
• 29:26
  is the institute, the institutions and the
• 29:30
  government's coming in. And I feel like there is
• 29:32
  sabotage and everything that they're saying.
• 29:36
  You just, you literally like almost have to do the opposite.
• 29:40
  And what was it that you and Nico say?
• 29:43
  You guys are like, I feel like these people watch, you know,
• 29:47
  all of our content. Yeah, yeah, they watch all the
• 29:49
  Bitcoin influencers and they counter trade it.
• 29:52
  Yeah, straight up like it's that's what's.
• 29:56
  Happening honestly could be the case.
• 29:58
  It could be the case, though. I'm glad that you did bring up
• 30:01
  Trump because he was at, let me let me see exactly.
• 30:05
  It was American Business Forum. He actually here in Miami.
• 30:10
  It was happening yesterday and it's happening today.
• 30:12
  And he did say some interesting things about Bitcoin.
• 30:15
  And actually, I think the more interesting kind of take on what
• 30:19
  he said was the tweet by Jack Posobik.
• 30:22
  I'm not the biggest Jack Posobik fan, but he is a part of Con
• 30:25
  Inc, as I like to call it, Conservative Inc.
• 30:28
  And he made a very interesting take that that I think kind of
• 30:32
  kind of connects to what Nico was saying yesterday.
• 30:35
  What you just re mentioned is like they forgot the most
• 30:37
  important part, which is number go up and pump our bags here.
• 30:41
  And so that's that's kind of the idea.
• 30:43
  So I'm gonna play a clip for you guys from Trump in a minute.
• 30:47
  Read a little bit of Jack Posobik.
• 30:48
  And then guys, also we did get an update on the samurai wallet
• 30:53
  dev. Not really good news.
• 30:57
  Cover that in the news and then I am, since I, like I said,
• 31:00
  since Niko's not here, I'm I'm going to troll a little bit, do
• 31:02
  some. I wouldn't say chart bowling.
• 31:04
  I, I have one tweet, but Niko was making a good case this
• 31:07
  morning about where he thinks the price is going.
• 31:11
  No, but honestly, but kind of bullish, no.
• 31:15
  That conversation just like saved my entire like depressive
• 31:19
  episode. Like I'm I'm much less depressed
• 31:21
  after having that conversation. Yeah, so the culture today is
• 31:25
  we're just gonna try to make Sophie feel good and make her
• 31:28
  feel less bearish about where we are right now.
• 31:31
  So that's the that's the layout of the show.
• 31:33
  But before I do that, of course I do.
• 31:36
  Got to plug our boys over at Bitcoin.
• 31:39
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• 31:43
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• 31:51
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• 32:13
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• 32:15
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  the wishing well. And that's when you sign up, you
• 32:21
  get three chances and when you refer friends and of course when
• 32:24
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• 32:25
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• 32:28
  on the sidelines, if you are one of the smart people that may be
• 32:32
  sold a little bit at 1:26 and you're sitting on some dollars
• 32:35
  and you're trying to figure out a way how to get $50,000 or more
• 32:38
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• 32:56
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• 32:59
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• 33:03
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• 34:25
  So current Bitcoin price is $101,280 per Bitcoin, which is a
• 34:32
  -19.7 decline from all time high.
• 34:38
  And we are barely, just barely scraping past the $2 trillion
• 34:43
  market cap with 2.02 trillion. But I guess guess what guys, you
• 34:47
  know, TikTok next block the Bitcoin block, the height is
• 34:52
  continuing to go up. We're at 922,504.
• 34:56
  OK, so as I was saying, Trump was at let me let me recheck
• 35:01
  this again. The American Business forum.
• 35:03
  You can kind of see it in the corner.
• 35:05
  It was in Miami yesterday. It's Live Today and he was
• 35:11
  talking. Apparently this event I'm I'm
• 35:13
  over here just like ChatGPT ING what this event is because I've
• 35:15
  never heard of it. And it goes.
• 35:17
  It marks the first time the forum is held in the United
• 35:19
  States and is described as the largest global business forum in
• 35:22
  the Americas. The event gathers over 40,000
• 35:25
  leaders, entrepreneurs and innovators worldwide and
• 35:28
  features prominent figures from sports, entertainment, business
• 35:31
  and global culture. Some of some, I guess some of
• 35:35
  the biggest names are in here. Let's see.
• 35:36
  It says, yeah, some cultural people.
• 35:40
  Ken Griffin, Adam Newman, Jamie Dimon.
• 35:42
  Course, Trump was there. It's sponsored primarily by
• 35:45
  Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
• 35:48
  Interesting. Interesting.
• 35:49
  Anyways, let's play the clip. It honestly, guys, I was
• 35:54
  watching this this morning. This clip is low key absolutely
• 35:58
  hilarious. Dude.
• 36:00
  He's still funny. All right, then that's all I'm
• 36:02
  going to say. He's still he's a natural born
• 36:05
  dude, he's still funny. Anyways, let's let's watch this
• 36:08
  clip. I I'm sure you kind of heard
• 36:10
  what he said in it, but it is actually kind of funny.
• 36:13
  But it is a perfect setup for what Jack persobic tweeted last
• 36:16
  night as well. So we'll be right back.
• 36:19
  For three years to embrace a vital industry here in Miami.
• 36:23
  I've also signed historic executive orders to end the
• 36:26
  federal government's war on crypto.
• 36:29
  Crypto was under siege. It's not under siege anymore
• 36:33
  because it's a big industry. It's a big industry and I have a
• 36:37
  lot of people that are great people, great business people.
• 36:39
  There are other businesses, but they're in crypto too, and it
• 36:42
  takes a lot of the pressure off the dollar it takes.
• 36:45
  It does a lot of good things, but we're into it.
• 36:47
  Biden was vicious on crypto. They were going after these
• 36:52
  crypto guys. It was terrible.
• 36:54
  They were under indictment, but I got indicted too.
• 36:56
  I got indicted. I made a phone call.
• 36:59
  Congratulations on your victory. He made a phone call.
• 37:02
  Let's indict him. These people are the worst.
• 37:06
  Then they say he's gonna have to call me.
• 37:09
  They indicted me. They impeached me.
• 37:11
  They did everything. It's unbelievable.
• 37:13
  Who the hell else could have taken that?
• 37:15
  You guys know anybody else I could have taken it?
• 37:17
  I don't think so. A lot of people say you're the
• 37:19
  only one could have taken that. I don't know if that's true, but
• 37:22
  there aren't too many. We're making the United States
• 37:25
  the Bitcoin superpower, the crypto capital of the world, and
• 37:28
  the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence.
• 37:32
  We're leading China by a lot. Don't forget, if we don't do the
• 37:38
  crypto properly, China, China wants to do it.
• 37:40
  They're starting it, but they want to do it.
• 37:42
  Other countries want to do it. If we don't do it, it's a big
• 37:44
  industry we're honoured to be. I I had you on because Sophie
• 37:51
  was like this like this during the video.
• 37:55
  Anyways, I watched this and I was laughing.
• 37:57
  My dog pumper bags. All right, perfect.
• 38:03
  Like literally just pump our bags.
• 38:06
  Pump your bags. I don't care what you do with
• 38:08
  your bags, just pump our bags. Yeah, yeah.
• 38:12
  And actually guys, I was mistaken.
• 38:13
  I guess I was reading it wasn't Jack posobic, it's another dude
• 38:16
  Jack, but I looked at his thumbnail or profile pic and I
• 38:19
  could have saw it was Jack posobic.
• 38:20
  Anyway, I think there's a great analysis of what's going on.
• 38:25
  He is connecting some dots and he goes.
• 38:27
  Like Trump is like if Frank Sinatra was a Bitcoiner.
• 38:31
  Like he just gives me like this old timey, like he's like you're
• 38:35
  crypto. China wants to do the crypto.
• 38:38
  So we're we have way more than that.
• 38:40
  Not really, not really. Like by the way, it's.
• 38:44
  Well, well, well, they did just seize another 100K.
• 38:48
  Now we haven't heard about the 1st 200 K but if if it's true we
• 38:53
  are actually bleeding a lot now by 100 and something 1000 coins.
• 38:58
  We need to get the Bitcoin Act passed.
• 39:02
  Senator, Senator Lovitz, call me, let me know what I could do
• 39:06
  'cause I can't do anything. But I really want to get this
• 39:11
  thing passed. We need to be by.
• 39:13
  It's not enough to seize it. It's actually counterproductive
• 39:16
  to seize it, and it's going to scare people away if you seize
• 39:20
  it. I think we should just start
• 39:23
  buying it and backing the dollar with it and then eventually
• 39:26
  replace the dollar with it. But that's a whole other
• 39:28
  conversation. Maybe like whoever's in charge
• 39:31
  in 2028 or 2032 can take care of that.
• 39:34
  But still, we need to start buying Bitcoin.
• 39:38
  Like, I don't understand why Trump is talking about crypto,
• 39:42
  saying we're going to be the crypto agent.
• 39:44
  Like we're not going to do anything unless we actually
• 39:48
  start buying Bitcoin. Like forget about crypto.
• 39:52
  Crypto will rise with the tide of Bitcoin.
• 39:55
  But Bitcoin is the big kahuna. And I don't know who needs to go
• 39:59
  explain this to him. I don't know who in his
• 40:02
  administration or his family or his whatever, like Sup, but
• 40:06
  somebody's got to let him know. Hey yo, Baron, if you can hear
• 40:10
  me. Baron.
• 40:12
  Get it yo chat with your dad bro.
• 40:14
  No, dude, Baron. Baron's off doing other degen
• 40:18
  things. Yeah, Baron's Baron's shorting
• 40:21
  the shit coin markets and making millions.
• 40:23
  Anyways. Anyways, I, I, I like this tweet
• 40:26
  here and I, I think there is something here.
• 40:30
  And he goes Bitcoin price action matters.
• 40:32
  It's not a coincidence that the day after Bitcoin crashed below
• 40:34
  100K, Trump suddenly comes out hyping Bitcoin and crypto.
• 40:38
  The Trump administration definitely doesn't want this
• 40:41
  kind of bearish price action. Honestly, these massive dumps
• 40:44
  look like an attack on Trump's plan for monetary policy.
• 40:47
  That speech feels like a part of countermove.
• 40:49
  Like I mentioned in my earlier post today, if Bitcoin drops
• 40:52
  below certain key levels, it becomes a lot harder for this
• 40:55
  administration to push it as a reserve asset during Trump's
• 40:58
  term. That's why they had to step in.
• 41:00
  More updates soon. Now it is a little tinfoil, Y
• 41:03
  tinfoil hat, but I think there's something there because we we've
• 41:09
  actually heard something similar come out from the Trump
• 41:11
  administration, not necessarily Trump himself.
• 41:15
  Obviously, he's always been super bullish.
• 41:16
  He dropped a couple shit coins. You know that his children have
• 41:19
  world liberty Finance. His sons come out and they're
• 41:22
  hanging out with Sailor and they're being very pro Bitcoin.
• 41:25
  They're going basically all in, But we have heard from
• 41:29
  spokespeople from the Trump administration essentially say
• 41:32
  two things. One, they're watching Wall
• 41:34
  Street, what happened on Wall Street very closely, and that is
• 41:38
  an indicator of how good he's doing as a president.
• 41:42
  And two, we heard something very similar come out about Bitcoin,
• 41:46
  that they're watching the price of Bitcoin very closely.
• 41:49
  And that is also going to be an indicator of how successful this
• 41:53
  second presidency is. And so I think what Nico was
• 41:57
  saying yesterday, what you kind of just said a minute ago, I
• 42:00
  don't think they have forgotten about number go up.
• 42:03
  Maybe there's just other things that they're putting ahead of
• 42:07
  it. And on the SBR at this point,
• 42:09
  guys, I'm not going to, I'm not going to lie.
• 42:10
  I'm like, I, I really don't care about an SBR.
• 42:13
  All I what I care about is elimination of capital gains.
• 42:17
  And like, he'll be the goat. He'll be the goat.
• 42:19
  Don't get me wrong, the SBR is important for literally one
• 42:23
  thing and it's just initial exposure basically we didn't
• 42:29
  have one before. It's like probably better that
• 42:32
  we have one then we don't, but it but it literally doesn't
• 42:36
  matter unless we have a significant amount and you're
• 42:40
  not going to be able to seize a significant amount.
• 42:42
  You're going to have to eventually buy some, you know,
• 42:46
  and and it's to our benefit as a country.
• 42:50
  So I just, I don't understand if the price is tanking, why the US
• 42:55
  hasn't made strides to accumulate Bitcoin and, you
• 42:59
  know, make it wait. Wait, wait.
• 43:02
  Yeah, we need capital controls in Bitcoin.
• 43:06
  Yeah, Daddy Trump buy Bitcoin low.
• 43:09
  I'm I'm, I'm trolling. That's not what I want.
• 43:11
  But that, that's basically what someone said.
• 43:14
  Yeah. You're Venezuelan.
• 43:15
  What are you doing? I just want them to buy Bitcoin.
• 43:18
  OK? I just want the US to buy some
• 43:21
  Bitcoin. Wait, why would that be bad?
• 43:23
  It's literally a telltale sign of of collectivism.
• 43:26
  It's like, hey, the markets are doing bad, please save us.
• 43:31
  Yeah. Tell me honestly.
• 43:32
  Honestly, yeah, I didn't really think about it that way.
• 43:34
  But, you know, if we if we trickle that back down to like
• 43:40
  what's going on in New York and, you know, a certain mayor who
• 43:43
  just got elected, I mean, people are talking about the why,
• 43:47
  right? You know, prices are super high.
• 43:50
  Inflation is making it impossible to live on one
• 43:54
  paycheck. People are getting multiple jobs
• 43:56
  just to be able to survive. And Bitcoin really helps fix
• 44:01
  this situation because it's not so much about the wealth
• 44:05
  inequality, it's about the opportunity inequality and the
• 44:08
  fact that some people can hold on and live with that inflation
• 44:13
  longer than others. And I think that we're seeing
• 44:15
  that very clearly with these these banks who are shaking
• 44:19
  people out and with the government itself.
• 44:22
  You know, you know, you don't think that the Trump family has
• 44:25
  enough capital to be able to wait out a little, a little dip,
• 44:30
  which for them, you know, it's, it's probably like not a big
• 44:33
  deal. But for the average person, it's
• 44:35
  like everyone is hurting so badly.
• 44:38
  I just, I think, I think that that Bitcoin would solve a lot
• 44:43
  of these things. You know, made me think of Nancy
• 44:47
  Pelosi and Baron and Baron Trump.
• 44:50
  I would be such a good trader if I knew what was going to happen
• 44:53
  in the market. You know, if I knew it was going
• 44:55
  to happen before, I'd be the best trader in the world.
• 45:01
  All right, guys, let's keep it moving.
• 45:03
  We're we're going to get to the news.
• 45:05
  We'll be right back. I want to give a shout out to
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• 47:43
  Hello, Baron. Yes.
• 47:46
  You're talking to your dad about pumping our bags.
• 47:49
  Oh my God, that's amazing. What did Nancy say?
• 47:52
  She's going all in. That's great.
• 47:55
  That's great. Make sure to make sure to get a
• 47:58
  big key. OK?
• 48:00
  Make sure to get a big key because if not, none of that
• 48:03
  stuff is going to be secure. So please let me know.
• 48:06
  Let me know when it's in. Confirmed Baron's gonna pump our
• 48:10
  bags. You know, we really miss the
• 48:14
  Sophie ASMR. Nico can't do it as well.
• 48:17
  I know I heard him do it yesterday and I almost peed my
• 48:19
  pants laughing. It's like yo-yo tap it with your
• 48:23
  fingers. It's like tap.
• 48:24
  It and I was like. It's like tap it with your
• 48:27
  finger. It's like dotting.
• 48:28
  It's like doing nothing. Amazing, amazing.
• 48:32
  OK guys, we are going to pivot a little bit.
• 48:38
  We've been having a lot of fun so far on the show.
• 48:40
  Yeah, so, so much fun. So much fun.
• 48:42
  Sophie's over here about to UN alive herself and you know,
• 48:47
  we're we're gonna walk her off the ledge in a in a minute.
• 48:49
  But before we do that. I think I might just be hungry.
• 48:53
  I'm so hungry right now. I'm literally.
• 48:55
  So that honestly might just be it.
• 48:56
  Like I might just be hungry. I I'm with you anyways anyways,
• 48:59
  here's the news for today guys. So this literally just happened
• 49:02
  breaking breaking breaking right before I went live.
• 49:05
  This just happened. I've been covering this.
• 49:07
  So the Samurai wallet devs, well one of them so far I, I'll look
• 49:13
  on Twitter real quick, see if it, you know, I got another
• 49:17
  update, but they, he was sentenced to the maximum of five
• 49:21
  years with a $250,000 fine. Now they followed this up a
• 49:25
  little bit and it goes, the Samurai wallet dev, one of them
• 49:28
  has received the maximum possible sentence on his guilty
• 49:31
  plea for operating an unlicensed money transmitter.
• 49:34
  Again, they pleaded guilty to it.
• 49:36
  They didn't really get him on anything else except for this,
• 49:39
  you know, quote, unlicensed money transmitter.
• 49:41
  He will serve 60 months or five years in prison, pay a $250,000
• 49:44
  fine. And they're going to do more
• 49:46
  details on this in a minute. So I haven't checked this while
• 49:49
  we were live. Let me see if there's something
• 49:51
  new on here. OK, here.
• 49:54
  Actually, let me just play this. It is short.
• 49:57
  Hopefully this comes through and we'll just watch this together.
• 50:04
  Hi, this is David Morris for the rage here at the Southern
• 50:06
  District. Tell me if you guys can hear
• 50:07
  this. Completion of a sentencing
• 50:08
  hearing for Keoni Rodriguez, one of the two creators of Samurai
• 50:12
  Wallet, a privacy slash mixing service Rodriguez, which some
• 50:17
  people will be disappointed by. Rodriguez got the full possible
• 50:20
  sentence for his guilty plea on the charge of operating an
• 50:25
  unlicensed money transmitter 1960 C, the same charge that
• 50:30
  Roman Storm was recently found guilty of and that people
• 50:35
  including Peter Peter Van Valkenburg Berg from Coin Center
• 50:38
  have have said is being interpreted strangely in these
• 50:42
  cases. But regardless, we saw a judge,
• 50:46
  Judge Coat, who seemed very unsympathetic to the arguments
• 50:51
  for financial privacy that were made by Rodriguez in some of his
• 50:55
  submissions ahead of the sentencing.
• 51:00
  I'll, I'll be writing more about that at the Rage soon.
• 51:03
  So full five year sentence on that one charge.
• 51:06
  It is worth keeping in mind that in exchange for his guilty plea,
• 51:09
  several other charges with a potential maximum of 25 years in
• 51:13
  prison were dropped. And so it's not necessarily that
• 51:18
  he he got a raw deal for the the plea.
• 51:20
  He he did potentially reduce his sentence by pleading guilty.
• 51:26
  He will also pay a $250,000 fine, which according to his own
• 51:30
  defense lawyers is going to be a real challenge because he has
• 51:34
  obligations already greater than money that he had on hand from
• 51:38
  his his work prior to Samurai Wallet.
• 51:43
  So it's it's not the outcome that I think many viewing this
• 51:46
  are going to have hoped for, but it is still probably less than
• 51:51
  at least a worst, worst case scenario.
• 51:54
  Lots more detail to come as I write for the Rage over the next
• 51:57
  couple of hours, so stay tuned to this space.
• 51:59
  Thanks. OK guys, so there's the breaking
• 52:04
  news. Thank you Ron and Grant for the
• 52:08
  lunch money. Yeah, I'm going to totally use
• 52:11
  it. I did.
• 52:12
  I'm really, I actually here, let me before I troll a little more.
• 52:18
  We're like in the middle of a serious, serious story and it's
• 52:21
  like man, I'm so hungry. Anyways, of course you guys are
• 52:24
  familiar. We've been covering this for a
• 52:26
  while. I am going to read this a little
• 52:29
  bit just to kind of give you guys a little more info here.
• 52:33
  So let's see. Of course they've been covering
• 52:37
  this for a while. They pled guilty to conspiracy
• 52:40
  to violate money transmission licensing requirements for
• 52:42
  building a non custodial Bitcoin privacy wallet.
• 52:47
  Rodriguez doesn't identify the problem of Samurai sought to
• 52:49
  solve, Coach said quote. There is no acknowledgement of
• 52:52
  the criminal world for whom digital currency is a gift.
• 52:55
  There seems to be no recognition of the human suffering that was
• 52:58
  facilitated by the defendant. The defendant engaged in very
• 53:01
  serious antisocial behavior. I don't see the letter to
• 53:05
  acknowledge this, Coat said. The judge said in response to
• 53:08
  the clemency letter filed by one of the Samurai Wallet Dev, the
• 53:11
  head of the sentencing quote. The letter misunderstands many
• 53:14
  things. It identifies his motive as
• 53:16
  protecting financial privacy. That's fine, that's good, but I
• 53:20
  don't think that's what's really at stake here, the judge said.
• 53:23
  I pleaded guilty to a subsection of money transmitter licensing
• 53:27
  law criminalizing the knowing transmission of illicit
• 53:29
  proceeds. The defense requested a
• 53:32
  sentencing of one year and one day a pre sentencing
• 53:34
  recommendation from probation authorities recommended 42
• 53:38
  months. Subsection applied to Rodriguez.
• 53:41
  It's the same subsection that prosecutors used to convict
• 53:44
  Tornado Cash Co creator Roman Storm this August.
• 53:47
  At the time, many scholars argued that the subsection was
• 53:49
  misapplied due to a lack of licensing requirements for non
• 53:53
  custodial services. Earlier this year, Assistant
• 53:57
  Attorney General Matthew Galletti stated that the DOJ
• 54:01
  would no longer bring prosecutions against non
• 54:04
  custodial developers under the subsection applied to Rodriguez,
• 54:07
  Hill and Storm. The defense highlighted
• 54:09
  ambiguities in the law itself, citing confusion around whether
• 54:13
  licensing and regulatory requirements such as the Bank
• 54:15
  Secrecy Act applied to non custodial services.
• 54:19
  It also highlighted the need for services like Samurai Wallet to
• 54:21
  conceal otherwise public funds to protect Bitcoin users from
• 54:24
  extortion and kidnappings. And I guess in addition to the
• 54:29
  five years and 250K fine, he will be supervised released for
• 54:33
  three years, 20% of his gross income will be garnished after
• 54:37
  release to pay the fine as will $25.00 a month or up to 50% of
• 54:41
  income earned in federal prison work program.
• 54:44
  So obviously from a privacy perspective, not really the
• 54:52
  result that a lot of Bitcoiners wanted.
• 54:55
  From a personal case perspective, it it could have
• 55:00
  been a much worse for for Rodriguez himself.
• 55:04
  So I'm sure there is some sense of relief here from from like
• 55:09
  how much time am I going to get lost for trying to fight for
• 55:12
  financial privacy, though I think as a lot of bitcoiners
• 55:16
  kind of mention and then the cocaine of worms that fell
• 55:19
  afterwards. I think in hindsight, we can
• 55:23
  maybe say that some of the messaging probably wasn't the
• 55:27
  best. You know, I, I don't want to get
• 55:29
  tomatoes thrown at me and then you guys can call me a coward or
• 55:31
  whatever, but I, I think, I think, I mean I think.
• 55:35
  They probably knew that and. They just said fuck it.
• 55:38
  And it they just said, yeah, like they said, we're going to
• 55:42
  do it anyway because this is the price of free speech and this is
• 55:46
  the price of protecting privacy in in Bitcoin.
• 55:49
  Yeah, 100%. I, I think that was kind of the
• 55:52
  take. Now, from a more big picture
• 55:55
  view of this, it does bring up a bunch of interesting, I don't
• 56:01
  know if you want to call him dichotomies or hypocrisies that
• 56:04
  we are kind of seeing right now. I saw my boy Mark Goodwin.
• 56:08
  Of course, you guys know him. He's been on the beat with
• 56:10
  Whitney Webb on the whole stable coin, Peter Thiel kind of
• 56:13
  dystopian surveillance CBDC stuff.
• 56:16
  And he was trolling earlier and he's like Bitcoin president,
• 56:20
  LOL. Like, yeah, right.
• 56:22
  And I think that does bring up the greater conversation that
• 56:25
  I've kind of been bringing to the show the last couple of
• 56:28
  weeks. You know, all of what Simon
• 56:30
  Dixon's been saying is we are seemingly seeing this kind of
• 56:36
  fork in the road right now where Wall Street is entering Bitcoin.
• 56:40
  And they want your Bitcoin, but they also don't want the more
• 56:45
  radical elements that are a part of Bitcoin.
• 56:47
  And they are trying to whitewash Bitcoin.
• 56:50
  And it does seem at least maybe from this precedent here, excuse
• 56:54
  me, from the DOJ where they are totally willing to embrace
• 56:59
  Bitcoin, but they're going to try to do this in a way where
• 57:03
  there is no privacy at all. And obviously from these last
• 57:07
  two precedents, I know like it said, they changed the law to
• 57:11
  basically say you can create non custodial Bitcoin software.
• 57:15
  But from the Roman Storm case and this one, it is starting to
• 57:19
  look like they don't like privacy at all and they are
• 57:23
  attacking privacy. So we are in the midst of the
• 57:25
  privacy wars. They don't like privacy, they
• 57:27
  don't like self custody. Like this is a very slippery
• 57:31
  slope, right 'cause the road from privacy to self custody is
• 57:37
  like, it's like really like real an inch short.
• 57:41
  And I don't know, I think I think they definitely took one
• 57:45
  for the team. And I'm very grateful for it.
• 57:48
  And I know that, you know, a lot of people might think that the
• 57:51
  way that this was handled on their end might have been stupid
• 57:55
  and, you know, they're going to jail and all the stuff.
• 57:57
  But like in the future, this is probably going to be seen as
• 58:02
  like a heroic act, you know, and and they're going to be seen as
• 58:07
  heroes for protecting privacy and not, you know, bending the
• 58:11
  knee to the institutions that are calling them criminals
• 58:14
  because privacy is not a crime and having your Bitcoin in self
• 58:20
  custody is not a crime. So I think that, you know, it,
• 58:24
  it sucks. It really sucks.
• 58:27
  But I didn't expect anything different from the government.
• 58:32
  Facts, 100% facts. Someone in the chat said choke
• 58:36
  .3 point O. That's actually kind of an
• 58:38
  interesting take here because Trump has been saying we ended
• 58:41
  choke .2 point O. Or, you know, the Biden
• 58:44
  administration's attack on Bitcoin.
• 58:46
  And it does seem, you know, maybe you don't want to be as
• 58:50
  harsh and say it's an attack, but it does seem like there is a
• 58:54
  new kind of choke point, which is the KYC AM L money
• 58:58
  transmitters, privacy aspects of Bitcoin.
• 59:02
  And it does kind of fit into that narrative that Simon
• 59:06
  Dixon's been saying for the last couple of weeks, months, I guess
• 59:09
  years saying like there's a 2 tiered Bitcoin world that is
• 59:12
  developing the captured Bitcoin in Wall Street and then those
• 59:15
  that have Bitcoin in self custody.
• 59:17
  And I, I think just very clearly we're just like right smack dab
• 59:21
  in the middle of that. So again, for you guys out
• 59:24
  there, you do not get called by the siren of Wall Street and
• 59:29
  give them your Bitcoin. Keep it in self custody, secure
• 59:32
  it, make sure that you are doing whatever you can, you know,
• 59:38
  legally I suppose at this point to protect your Bitcoin.
• 59:42
  Yeah, you have to like, that's the other thing.
• 59:45
  Like, I think on the other hand, everybody who is ruining
• 59:50
  Bitcoin's name by using it for illicit purposes, it's like
• 59:55
  you're you're not helping anyone, not even yourself.
• 59:58
  And I think that's one of the great things about Bitcoin and
• 1:00:00
  its incentive structure. It's like if you hold Bitcoin,
• 1:00:04
  you shouldn't be incentivized to make the general public go
• 1:00:09
  against it by using it for illicit purposes.
• 1:00:12
  However, that doesn't mean that you're going to use it for
• 1:00:17
  illicit purposes just because you want to.
• 1:00:19
  Protect your privacy, right? The two are not mutually
• 1:00:23
  exclusive. And it's funny that Trump was
• 1:00:26
  talking about how he's protecting crypto in that
• 1:00:30
  conference yesterday. But by the same hand, the
• 1:00:33
  government, I mean, I know it's not that they're two totally
• 1:00:36
  different branches of government.
• 1:00:37
  It's not his administration per SE, but it's, you know, it's
• 1:00:43
  still the government coming after it.
• 1:00:44
  It's still the institutions coming after your Bitcoin.
• 1:00:47
  And this is the part of, you know, we thought we had hit the
• 1:00:51
  then we fight them stage a couple of years ago and that we
• 1:00:55
  won. But honestly, the battle has
• 1:00:57
  just begun because we're still in the midst of getting these
• 1:01:02
  people to understand that they can't change Bitcoin and that
• 1:01:06
  Bitcoin changes you. And actually they're going to
• 1:01:08
  have to capitulate to a lot of things that are going to be very
• 1:01:13
  uncomfortable for them. They're going to have to give up
• 1:01:15
  a lot of power. They can take advantage and and
• 1:01:18
  accumulate some power for themselves now by buying
• 1:01:21
  Bitcoin, but the reality is they're not going to have a a
• 1:01:26
  complete monopoly on power like they used to.
• 1:01:29
  And that makes them so uncomfortable.
• 1:01:31
  It makes it so that banks actually have to be useful for
• 1:01:35
  you now. It makes it so that governments
• 1:01:38
  actually have to work for you now they have to earn your vote
• 1:01:42
  because they can't just, you know, hold the money printer
• 1:01:46
  over your head anymore. Now you are the the holders of
• 1:01:50
  real money. It's not just them.
• 1:01:52
  And that terrifies them. And I think that the fact that
• 1:01:55
  they are, they're trying to penalize people for just writing
• 1:02:01
  code essentially is it's a travesty on our liberties.
• 1:02:06
  And we, they just don't see it that way because they have been
• 1:02:09
  so used to sitting in the position of power and having
• 1:02:13
  that monopoly and complete control of power that they,
• 1:02:18
  it's, it's a perspective game. And that perspective will shift
• 1:02:22
  over time. It's just a matter of, you know.
• 1:02:29
  Sophie, the motherly wisdom. All right, guys, Yeah, it's the
• 1:02:34
  hunger. Last commercial break and we're.
• 1:02:38
  So we're going to try to make Sophie feel good about the price
• 1:02:41
  and where we are right now. And you as well.
• 1:02:44
  I feel great. I feel great.
• 1:02:45
  I'm I'm cooked everybody. I'm cooked from the gym.
• 1:02:48
  I'm cooked from the gym and I'm hungry, but I'm actually
• 1:02:51
  bullish. I'm like, I'm literally bullish
• 1:02:53
  right now. I think we're going up anyways.
• 1:02:56
  So now you know, the Bitcoin price is going to dump 11 more
• 1:02:59
  commercial break. We'll be right back.
• 1:03:00
  We're done. I want to give a shout out to
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  our partner Hive Digital Technology.
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  digitaltech.com. I want to give a shout out to
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• 1:05:04
  All right guys, so yesterday if you were watching the show, I
• 1:05:09
  was kind of teasing you guys. I'm like, if you guys saw my
• 1:05:12
  chart bowling, you guys would be bullish and Nico's like no,
• 1:05:17
  we're dude, we're not doing that today.
• 1:05:19
  No chart bowling. But hey, Nico's not here so I
• 1:05:22
  can drop this for you guys. Now I am low key trolling a
• 1:05:25
  little bit like I'll, I'll be fully, fully, you know, serious
• 1:05:30
  about like I am kind of low key trolling here.
• 1:05:31
  But we will have a little more serious conversation and rehash
• 1:05:34
  the conversation that we had with Nico this morning.
• 1:05:37
  So I posted this on Twitter again.
• 1:05:40
  I was going to drop it last night.
• 1:05:42
  Everyone on Twitter is dropping charts and everyone's chart
• 1:05:46
  bowling here, but here's the 42 IQ chart bowling and oh God.
• 1:05:53
  So hey, you know when I'm in control, we have a little fun
• 1:05:56
  here. All right, So again, this is not
• 1:05:59
  financial advice. This first part.
• 1:06:00
  I am like low key trolling, but you know, can a boy dream?
• 1:06:04
  Can we can we go back to dreaming and being extremely
• 1:06:06
  bullish? So here is what I was going to
• 1:06:09
  tell you guys yesterday and yeah, yeah, you this, this is,
• 1:06:15
  this is my, yeah, this is this is No, no, no, I this is, this
• 1:06:21
  is my high level, high level TA on my phone here.
• 1:06:28
  OK, so again, I'm trolling. I like kind of trolling, all
• 1:06:32
  right? Just sort of trolling a little
• 1:06:33
  bit, only a little bit. Only a little bit, only a little
• 1:06:36
  trolling. All right, So what what am I?
• 1:06:39
  What am I looking at here? This is what I was going to say
• 1:06:42
  yesterday, but I'm having more fun today.
• 1:06:44
  So we had a lot of fun yesterday, but let's just have a
• 1:06:46
  little fun. So again, one thing we have
• 1:06:49
  noticed is recently, since 2023, it's roughly around here.
• 1:06:54
  Can you guys see my arrow? Is my arrow popping on?
• 1:06:57
  Can you see that on the chart so.
• 1:06:59
  Let me see. Yeah.
• 1:07:00
  OK. So it's roughly around here ish
• 1:07:03
  is when the ETFs were launched. What?
• 1:07:06
  Are we? Looking at so here, this is just
• 1:07:08
  the Bitcoin price. I'm on the weekly here, weekly
• 1:07:10
  Bitcoin price and then you can see my MA crosses here.
• 1:07:15
  So the red one here is the 50 week moving average ever since
• 1:07:18
  the ETF launch with roughly around here, every time it comes
• 1:07:22
  back to the 50 week moving average, it kind of holds up.
• 1:07:24
  And that's essentially where we are right now.
• 1:07:27
  And the reason I circled this area is because I was looking at
• 1:07:30
  this yesterday and I was like, you know, let me let me zoom out
• 1:07:34
  a little bit like where are we? And I am trolling here a little
• 1:07:38
  bit. But you know, here you can see
• 1:07:41
  after this bear market, this is 2016, the 50 week moving average
• 1:07:47
  or 200 week moving average. They kind of pinch here.
• 1:07:49
  We did get across in hours. But anyways, I was just looking
• 1:07:53
  at them like, you know, it's starting to open up almost like
• 1:07:56
  2017. I'm like, hey, you know, just
• 1:07:59
  just kind of eyeing this one. He's just vibe, just vibe
• 1:08:02
  trading here. I'm like, what if this is where
• 1:08:05
  we are right now in 2017, April of 2017 and we are on the verge
• 1:08:09
  of a huge, huge pump. And if you do the like, you
• 1:08:14
  know, the same price, that's like saying it's going to like
• 1:08:17
  $3,000,000. So like again, I'm low key
• 1:08:19
  trolling. I'm like low key trolling here.
• 1:08:21
  Like totally low key trolling. But hey, can a boy dream?
• 1:08:24
  All right, can we dream? Anyways, here you guys can see,
• 1:08:28
  you know, it's 50 week moving average.
• 1:08:29
  Here's the Bitcoin one price on the weekly.
• 1:08:32
  It is what it is. But while we were sitting here
• 1:08:35
  before the show again, Sophie was 2 dark policies of these
• 1:08:41
  kindergarten drugs. I was.
• 1:08:44
  Like I need, I was like I need to call.
• 1:08:46
  Nico yeah, Sophie was so. What's going on?
• 1:08:48
  And, you know, the first thing he told me was, you know, we
• 1:08:53
  have to be grateful at least we have Bitcoin.
• 1:08:56
  There's people who don't have Bitcoin, like everything has
• 1:09:01
  been, you know, going really well if you look at it long
• 1:09:04
  term. And I was like, yeah, but.
• 1:09:06
  And then he brought something up that I hadn't thought about in a
• 1:09:11
  really long time. And that is the power law.
• 1:09:15
  Yeah, and so Nico was essentially, you know, perma
• 1:09:18
  bear Nico. He was like, look what?
• 1:09:21
  I'm I didn't hear the whole combo.
• 1:09:22
  I heard a little bit. And he's like, look, Sophie,
• 1:09:25
  everyone has been wrong. He's like, I watch all the
• 1:09:28
  content creators, all the price content creators, and every
• 1:09:33
  single one of them has been wrong except for the power law
• 1:09:37
  guys, the square circle you've dude, it's I got fat fingers.
• 1:09:43
  Guys, you can't see these. These are fat fingers.
• 1:09:44
  OK, this is on my phone. This is TA on my phone.
• 1:09:48
  OK this is I literally like screenshot and like circling on
• 1:09:52
  my phone. Anyway, you know if you make a
• 1:09:54
  circle and then just hold it, the iPhone just makes it a
• 1:09:57
  perfect. I didn't know that again, I got
• 1:09:59
  a 42 IQ over here, so I didn't know that now I now I got some
• 1:10:02
  game here anyways anyways, Nico is like look, all of the price
• 1:10:06
  predictions. Every Bitcoin influencer has
• 1:10:09
  been wrong except for and he hated saying this.
• 1:10:13
  He's like the power law guys, the power law guys.
• 1:10:16
  It's literally following exactly the power law.
• 1:10:19
  And I'm not the biggest power law guy.
• 1:10:21
  I honestly, to be fully transparent, I was kind of
• 1:10:24
  shitting on the power law a lot earlier in the year.
• 1:10:26
  Like it's not bullish enough. Like you're wrong.
• 1:10:30
  Like. It makes sense, you know,
• 1:10:33
  because I didn't understand the power law until I was forced to
• 1:10:38
  understand it. Yeah, and how, how did Nico say
• 1:10:40
  it again? He's like the basics of the
• 1:10:42
  power law is that it takes twice as long for the price to double.
• 1:10:47
  Correct which makes which makes complete sense because if it
• 1:10:51
  takes four years for for the having right for you know the
• 1:10:57
  the difficulty of mining a Bitcoin to basically increase or
• 1:11:02
  double then that means that the price also has to double and
• 1:11:07
  that if it goes above that range it will correct and if it goes
• 1:11:12
  below that range it will correct it makes total sense I mean it's
• 1:11:17
  it's sound diminishing returns law of economics you know so
• 1:11:24
  it's. That's why that's why I was
• 1:11:25
  hating on power law. I'm like diminishing returns is
• 1:11:27
  dumb. Like there's 3% of the
• 1:11:29
  population. It's not going to diminish.
• 1:11:32
  Like, that's just where we are. Anyways, Niko was then following
• 1:11:36
  this up and and we were sitting there and we were kind of, you
• 1:11:40
  know, making Sophie feel better, I guess is probably the best way
• 1:11:44
  to say this. And we're like, OK, so like,
• 1:11:46
  what is the power law price? Like what?
• 1:11:49
  What is it saying the price should be today?
• 1:11:52
  And so I pulled this up. I'm using the Bitcoin fair price
• 1:11:55
  and let's see. So I have to wait three years
• 1:11:58
  for the net worth to double instead of 18 months from here
• 1:12:01
  on out. I want to speak to the manager.
• 1:12:04
  Exactly, exactly so. Like my Karen, energy is coming
• 1:12:09
  out so hard, right? Now exactly.
• 1:12:12
  So anyways, Nico then made the case and he goes, look, we asked
• 1:12:18
  him, OK, what, what is the power law saying the price should be
• 1:12:20
  today? And he's like, it's basically
• 1:12:22
  saying where we are right now. So the current price of course
• 1:12:26
  is 101. The it's 11% undervalued based
• 1:12:32
  on the fair price of the power law, which is saying roughly 113
• 1:12:35
  bottom 47. But it gets a little interesting
• 1:12:39
  and kind of depressing when you go into what the price should be
• 1:12:44
  end of year, then it says roughly power law 1:20.
• 1:12:48
  And you're like, bro, what? Like this is whack.
• 1:12:51
  I want to speak to the manager what is going on.
• 1:12:54
  But then when you go out a little bit, you know, we'll go
• 1:12:57
  2026, let's go 2026, December 167.
• 1:13:02
  You're like, OK, not as good as I want it to be, but OK,
• 1:13:06
  whatever. The scary thing is the bottom
• 1:13:08
  price. Yeah, let's not talk about
• 1:13:09
  bottoms, OK? Yeah, no, cuz I was like oh OK.
• 1:13:13
  Yeah, like I thought he was only talking about like the fair
• 1:13:16
  price, and then he brought up the bottom price.
• 1:13:19
  I'm like, there's a bottom price.
• 1:13:22
  What do you mean? What do you mean there's a
• 1:13:25
  bottom price? Yeah, so you know, here we go.
• 1:13:28
  2027 December 31st Fair value based power law to 2:30 roughly.
• 1:13:34
  Bottom 96 K you GO-202832029 Oops. 2029 wait, what's going
• 1:13:45
  on? 2029 four 100,000 and then you
• 1:13:49
  go, you know, 20-30 wait 20-30. So in five years is when we get
• 1:13:56
  to half a mil. And then I think if he did what
• 1:13:59
  he do, if you go to 2040, you're at 5 million based on the power
• 1:14:05
  law. So it's not as bad, you know,
• 1:14:10
  I'm not. And then the bottom is 2 mil.
• 1:14:12
  So anyways, we were talking about all this I I'm not the
• 1:14:16
  biggest power law believer. I think it's too bearish.
• 1:14:19
  But that also doesn't necessarily mean it won't
• 1:14:22
  fluctuate more than the fair value.
• 1:14:26
  But anyways, after this conversation, Sophie was like,
• 1:14:29
  OK, maybe maybe I feel a little better about this.
• 1:14:32
  It's like, OK, this year was awash.
• 1:14:35
  It's basically exactly the power law.
• 1:14:36
  Next year it's 167. The following year is roughly
• 1:14:40
  200K. The following year after that,
• 1:14:42
  2029, like 300 K, 2030 half a mil, you move out like 2040 and
• 1:14:49
  you're like, it's $5,000,000. Like all right, I guess it's not
• 1:14:54
  that bad. But that was Nico's case.
• 1:14:56
  He's like, dude, I, I don't like to admit it, but the power law
• 1:14:59
  guys, I think might be right. And Luke's, and Luke's going to
• 1:15:02
  lose it tomorrow 'cause he's a power law disrespector.
• 1:15:05
  You know, I and it doesn't mean that it's not going to go up way
• 1:15:11
  higher than that, right? It just means that yeah, yeah,
• 1:15:14
  correct back down. And to be honest with you, I
• 1:15:17
  like tempering my expectations. I think part of the reason why I
• 1:15:21
  feel so demoralized right now is because my expectations were so
• 1:15:26
  high from looking at previous charts and I just didn't expect
• 1:15:32
  this to happen. And, and now that I have like a
• 1:15:35
  different framing it, it, it does make me feel better, even
• 1:15:39
  if it means that, you know, we're going to have to wait
• 1:15:41
  longer, like just having a timeline.
• 1:15:44
  So it's I feel calm, I feel, I feel placated now.
• 1:15:48
  Here and and I pulled up I pulled up the the live chart
• 1:15:52
  here guys so we can we can kind of play with it here a little
• 1:15:56
  bit, but what someone said. No, Someone was like, hold on,
• 1:16:00
  now I have to find it. They were basically saying like,
• 1:16:04
  wouldn't you be happy if your favorite purse was on sale?
• 1:16:08
  And in my mind, I'm just like, no.
• 1:16:12
  I want it at full price bro it's.
• 1:16:15
  Like if you don't buy it at full price it just doesn't feel the
• 1:16:18
  same. I don't know.
• 1:16:18
  How to explain? It.
• 1:16:19
  Like, well, well, hey, welcome to welcome to Bitcoin.
• 1:16:23
  So I, I honestly, before I, we, before we kind of wrap up the
• 1:16:27
  show with the actual chart. I, I think what is kind of
• 1:16:32
  getting you more involved now is that you work with us every day
• 1:16:37
  and so you really feel the day-to-day stress of what we do.
• 1:16:41
  And you're like, man, it's, they make it look so easy, but
• 1:16:44
  there's stress constantly, honestly.
• 1:16:46
  Honestly shouts out to the Simply Bitcoin team because you
• 1:16:52
  guys are all killing it. And if you love us, subscribe to
• 1:16:55
  our channel Smash the Like Button.
• 1:17:00
  Wait, no Self. Self just dropped the video
• 1:17:03
  today. I did.
• 1:17:04
  Just give her some love and watch her video.
• 1:17:06
  Talked about what all you nerds wanted me to talk about.
• 1:17:10
  OK, I talked about the core versus knots debate.
• 1:17:14
  Maybe that's the reason that the price is being suppressed, blah,
• 1:17:17
  blah blah blah blah. Go watch it, OK?
• 1:17:21
  I learned a lot. There was a lot of research
• 1:17:24
  done. People are still calling me dumb
• 1:17:26
  in the comments. Fair fine.
• 1:17:30
  Go watch the video, okay? Share it with your Mama.
• 1:17:34
  Yo Sophie crashing out on the show, love to see it.
• 1:17:39
  Love to see it Okay you not. Entertained.
• 1:17:42
  Are you not entertained? Honestly, the more I lose it, I
• 1:17:47
  feel like the more the more we're gonna get.
• 1:17:49
  Oh my God, that was funny. That was good.
• 1:17:53
  Wow, We haven't had a simply Bitcoin crash out in a minute.
• 1:17:57
  That was great. All right, let me, let me just
• 1:17:58
  I'll pull up this chart again guys, we're just having some fun
• 1:18:03
  here. We're having some fun.
• 1:18:04
  You know, you got to remember rule #1 have a little fun.
• 1:18:07
  So here is Bitbo, here is the long term power law.
• 1:18:12
  So as you can see, is this today's no, this is this
• 1:18:20
  January, this is next year power law price 145K as kind of the
• 1:18:30
  fair value low of 51, high of 521,000.
• 1:18:36
  So that's where it gets interesting.
• 1:18:37
  There are highs here, which basically means it can fluctuate
• 1:18:41
  between these prices. But again, when you go and zoom
• 1:18:44
  out to like 20-30 is when things do get very interesting fair
• 1:18:50
  value. This is the end of 2030, fair
• 1:18:55
  value 654,000, a low of 225 and a high of $1.85 million.
• 1:19:02
  So maybe the power law isn't as bearish as I would like to say
• 1:19:08
  it is. But yeah, for reals, it's.
• 1:19:13
  So good, it's so real. But I don't know, that's, that's
• 1:19:17
  Nikko's take. The power law guys are the only
• 1:19:19
  ones that have really kind of been right so far.
• 1:19:22
  Obviously, you know, the math here in first and standard
• 1:19:25
  second deviations and all this stuff, It's almost like they can
• 1:19:28
  never be wrong. But you know, I don't know, I'm,
• 1:19:30
  I'm not the mathematician here, But hopefully that makes you
• 1:19:34
  feel a little better. Someone in the chat earlier said
• 1:19:36
  thank you guys for the show. You do.
• 1:19:38
  You guys are like therapy for us and it's so true dude.
• 1:19:41
  You're a therapy for me. Therapy for each other.
• 1:19:43
  Yeah, well, I'm like therapy for myself here, guys.
• 1:19:46
  So I'm glad that you're on the journey with us.
• 1:19:49
  I'm glad we could have Sophie crashing out, showing you guys
• 1:19:52
  her true emotions. It's.
• 1:19:54
  Called, it's called being genuine and authentic.
• 1:19:57
  And I know that half the people watching this feel like I do.
• 1:20:02
  And you probably need us to to show you that you're not alone.
• 1:20:07
  That's why you tune in. That's probably why you support
• 1:20:10
  us here at Simply Bitcoin. And you know, we're all in this
• 1:20:13
  together, like they said in the great feature film High School
• 1:20:18
  Musical. Okay, that's enough.
• 1:20:21
  I'm getting muted. All right, she's off the camera.
• 1:20:25
  All right, guys. All right, again, as Sophie was
• 1:20:28
  saying, I, I do agree with luck. We, we totally love you guys.
• 1:20:31
  We appreciate you guys. You guys know me, I, I'm, I'm
• 1:20:34
  always in the chat listening to what you guys are saying.
• 1:20:37
  You know, I, I really, really, I know there's some people that
• 1:20:41
  don't like all of the techniques that we do and what we try to do
• 1:20:44
  here. So I love all the criticism.
• 1:20:48
  I love all the love. I appreciate it all you know,
• 1:20:52
  I'm listening and I I do my best to make this the best show for
• 1:20:55
  everyone that watches it. We have a lot of fun doing it.
• 1:20:59
  We are super blessed to be here doing this.
• 1:21:01
  We're super blessed to have made this into something that not
• 1:21:04
  only you guys enjoy, but that we can continue to do and support
• 1:21:08
  ourselves and our families. So again, without you guys, we
• 1:21:12
  would not be here. We love you guys and we will be
• 1:21:15
  here on the journey with you guys every single day.
• 1:21:18
  You know, it's crazy. So it's like we, we are a part
• 1:21:22
  of their lives and we don't even know who they are.
• 1:21:26
  They're just hanging out with every single day.
• 1:21:28
  And it's like we are a part of their lives.
• 1:21:30
  And I, I don't take that lightly.
• 1:21:32
  I really, I really do take it very seriously of coming here
• 1:21:35
  every single day giving you guys some quality, some value,
• 1:21:38
  whether it's just entertainment or, you know, reading the news
• 1:21:41
  and all that stuff. So anyways, peace and love.
• 1:21:44
  I love you guys. We will be back tomorrow for our
• 1:21:46
  last show of the week. But like I said, make sure you
• 1:21:49
  subscribe to our channel. You know, Sophie's dropping
• 1:21:51
  content, Ruston's dropping content, Dante's dropping
• 1:21:54
  content. And guys, honestly, go check out
• 1:21:57
  Ocean's new show. It's not the new show, it's not
• 1:22:00
  a new show, but it's a new format and he's killing it.
• 1:22:04
  We're still kind of polishing it, but Ocean's new, new show
• 1:22:09
  is, is really, really good. We just need to kind of put the
• 1:22:12
  finishing Polish touches on it. Guys, I'm obsessed with Ocean
• 1:22:17
  show and like I don't say that lightly.
• 1:22:20
  I don't watch a lot of Bitcoin content and I love Ocean's show.
• 1:22:27
  It's literally a work of art. You if you guys haven't seen it,
• 1:22:31
  go check it out. It's really, really great.
• 1:22:34
  Agreed. Agreed.
• 1:22:35
  He's killing it. We're super hyped on it.
• 1:22:36
  We we're still kind of figuring out how to package it correctly,
• 1:22:41
  but the videos are amazing. Anyways, guys, we love you.
• 1:22:45
  We shouldn't be as late tomorrow as we were today.
• 1:22:48
  Again, I'm going to blame Sophie for that one.
• 1:22:53
  Oh my God, I was on time. I was actually on time today.
• 1:22:59
  Yeah, I was on the couch chilling.
• 1:23:01
  Anyways, guys, we love you. See you tomorrow.
• 1:23:04
  Peace out. This has been goodbye.
• 1:23:09
  Today's episode was brought to you by bitcoinwell.com, a
• 1:23:13
  Bitcoin only platform on a mission to enable financial
• 1:23:16
  independence.