Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 4/28/26: Trump Lashes Out At Iran, UAE Ditches OPEC, JD Thinks Hegseth Lying About War

Transcript

4/28/26: Trump Lashes Out At Iran, UAE Ditches OPEC, JD Thinks Hegseth Lying About War · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. I have an
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0:37
Speaker 4: Indeed, we do a lot that's interesting this morning.
0:40
Speaker 2: So Marco Rubio is saying the situation in Hormuz is unacceptable.
0:44
Speaker 2: This comes as Trump is apparently telling AIDS that all
0:47
Speaker 2: the Iranians understand is bombs. So some ominous warnings there.
0:51
Speaker 2: Jd Vance World is leaking that Hegseth may be lying
0:54
Speaker 2: to the President and presenting an overbly favorable view of
0:58
Speaker 2: the war in Iran. Republicans are now completely obsessed with
1:02
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1:05
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1:07
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1:20
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1:23
Speaker 2: which has gotten interesting. A coalition forming to oppose net
1:27
Speaker 2: Yahoo and and Culture has thoughts on the Iran War.
1:31
Speaker 2: So Sager and Emily are going to talk to her
1:33
Speaker 2: about what she thinks of the Trump presidency and the
1:35
Speaker 2: Iran War specifically.
1:37
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Speaker 3: But as Chrystal said, we're going to go ahead and
2:20
Speaker 3: start with the Iran situation. A lot of news coming out,
2:23
Speaker 3: some extraordinary comments here made by the Secretary of State
2:26
Speaker 3: in a new interview with Fox News.
2:28
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
2:29
Speaker 5: On Saturday, the President canceled the talks in Islam about
2:32
Speaker 5: Pakistan keeping special envoice Kushner and Wikoff here in the
2:36
Speaker 5: United States. He said, just ten minutes later, the Iranians
2:40
Speaker 5: made a new offer on paper, and it was better.
2:43
Speaker 6: If what they mean by opening the straits is yes,
2:45
Speaker 6: the straits are opened as long as you coordinate with Iran,
2:47
Speaker 6: get our permission, or will blow you up and you
2:50
Speaker 6: pay us. That's not opening the straits. Those are international waterways.
2:53
Speaker 6: They cannot normalize, nor can we tolerate them trying to
2:57
Speaker 6: normalize a system in which the Iranians decide who gets
3:00
Speaker 6: to use an international waterway and how much you have
3:02
Speaker 6: to pay them to use it.
3:04
Speaker 3: So this has continued a United States redline on the
3:07
Speaker 3: Straits of horn Moves. Note that the current red line
3:10
Speaker 3: has absolutely nothing to do apparently with nuclear weapons, with
3:13
Speaker 3: nuclear enrichment, with ballistic missiles, with proxies. It is purely
3:17
Speaker 3: on the Straits of horn Moves, which was completely open
3:19
Speaker 3: on February twenty seventh, before the war even started. It
3:23
Speaker 3: just goes to show the leverage really that the Iranians
3:26
Speaker 3: continue to have on the situation.
3:29
Speaker 1: The price of Brent crude oil as of this.
3:31
Speaker 3: Morning has resumed the exact same price as it was
3:34
Speaker 3: before the ceasefire, which shows the Iranian strategy working. The
3:38
Speaker 3: US naval blockade continues to try and cripple the Iranians,
3:42
Speaker 3: basically trying to shut in as much oil as possible.
3:45
Speaker 3: Some reports coming out this morning crystal that it is
3:47
Speaker 3: possible that they are beginning to fill the vast majority
3:51
Speaker 3: of their storage. So that would be a major decision
3:53
Speaker 3: point for Iran as well, is are they going to
3:56
Speaker 3: have to destroy their own oil production.
3:58
Speaker 1: Resume the war.
4:00
Speaker 3: Things seem to be reaching a critical nexus. I think
4:03
Speaker 3: in terms of the cease far. While the US may
4:07
Speaker 3: want to walk away, and they, you know, they could
4:09
Speaker 3: somewhat accept the situation, we would all just have to
4:12
Speaker 3: pay very very high gas prices and it would be
4:14
Speaker 3: a disaster for the rest of the world. For Iran,
4:17
Speaker 3: this might be entering an existential phase, although maybe because
4:21
Speaker 3: they don't necessarily want to be seen as the aggressor,
4:22
Speaker 3: they may not want to resume hostilities purely on their
4:25
Speaker 3: own terms. I'm just not sure which way it's going to.
4:27
Speaker 1: Go right now.
4:28
Speaker 7: Yeah.
4:28
Speaker 2: Well, and there's a new report from Axios, which you know,
4:31
Speaker 2: we all understand this is coming from the administration and
4:36
Speaker 2: they're pushing a certain line. But one of the things
4:38
Speaker 2: that was in this report was that Trump had told
4:41
Speaker 2: an advisor the only thing that the Iranians understand is bombs.
4:46
Speaker 2: So that doesn't seem like a good sign in terms of,
4:49
Speaker 2: you know, continuing to try to de escalade, try to
4:52
Speaker 2: get back to the negotiating table, et cetera. And Trump,
4:55
Speaker 2: of course, has been the person who has blown up
4:57
Speaker 2: the prospect of being able to come to some deal
5:00
Speaker 2: starting the Twelve Days War, than by starting this war,
5:03
Speaker 2: and now most recently during the ceasefire, immediately coming in
5:07
Speaker 2: and undermining the positions that he had apparently held out,
5:11
Speaker 2: continuing with the blockade, expanding the blockade even which is
5:15
Speaker 2: an active war, and undercutting any possibility of renewed talks
5:19
Speaker 2: in Islamabad. You know, with regard to Rubio's comments here
5:22
Speaker 2: on the strait of Hornbeuz, I think there's a couple
5:25
Speaker 2: things that are really important about that. Number one to
5:29
Speaker 2: this idea of you know, oh, maybe the current limbo
5:34
Speaker 2: status quo is something that the US could tolerate. What
5:37
Speaker 2: he's saying there is no, this is not acceptable. This
5:40
Speaker 2: is not something we can tolerate. The other way to
5:43
Speaker 2: interpret his comments is he again through Barockravita at Axios,
5:48
Speaker 2: they had leaked that oh Iran came up with this
5:51
Speaker 2: new proposal and this happened just before market's open Sunday night,
5:55
Speaker 2: and it's a better proposal, and you hear him, you know,
5:57
Speaker 2: reiterating that in this conversation with Fox News. Well, what
6:01
Speaker 2: was different about the proposal is the proposal said, look,
6:04
Speaker 2: we're not even going to talk about nuclear weapons, We're
6:06
Speaker 2: not going to talk about nuclear energy. We're putting all
6:08
Speaker 2: that to the side. We're willing to talk to you
6:11
Speaker 2: about a new status quot and the straight of horn moves,
6:13
Speaker 2: and he is saying also there, well, what they are
6:15
Speaker 2: offering on the straight of horn moves is unacceptable. So
6:19
Speaker 2: it undercuts the idea that the Iranians were feeling all
6:21
Speaker 2: this pressure and had to come up with some new,
6:23
Speaker 2: better proposal to try to come to the table, because
6:26
Speaker 2: Rubio was saying, no, this new approach of dealing just
6:31
Speaker 2: with the straight of horm moves and pushing off nuclear
6:32
Speaker 2: weapons is also unacceptable to us. In that Axios report
6:37
Speaker 2: where Trump said that all the Iranians understands bombs, and
6:40
Speaker 2: you also have now reporting from Wall Street Journal in
6:41
Speaker 2: New York Times. In fact, I think the last element
6:43
Speaker 2: in this block is New York Times. Right up of this,
6:46
Speaker 2: Trump is saying that the idea of putting that off
6:48
Speaker 2: the table, the nuclear talks off the table, is unacceptable
6:52
Speaker 2: to him. So where does that leave us If the
6:55
Speaker 2: status quot is unacceptable, If Trump is saying the only
6:58
Speaker 2: thing they understand is bombs, if he's saying no, I'm
7:01
Speaker 2: not willing to push aside the nuclear file, this has
7:04
Speaker 2: to be front and center. But the Iranians are saying
7:06
Speaker 2: we are not willing to negotiate on this at all
7:08
Speaker 2: at this point, given where we are. You know, it
7:12
Speaker 2: would not be a surprise at all if we return
7:14
Speaker 2: to some level of hostilities, because that seems to be
7:16
Speaker 2: the direction everything is pushing it.
7:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, and in a sense, I talked to there about
7:19
Speaker 3: how things are reaching a critical point for the Iranians,
7:23
Speaker 3: and I think that's definitely true because of oil destruction.
7:26
Speaker 3: But also the Wall Street Journal now says that last
7:29
Speaker 3: week was the single lowest traffic amount of traffic that
7:33
Speaker 3: ever went through the Straits of Hormones because of the
7:35
Speaker 3: US naval blockade and because of Iran. So actually it's
7:38
Speaker 3: not like there has been any opening up or even
7:41
Speaker 3: modest resumption of trade. There has been a single LNG
7:45
Speaker 3: tanker which was able to transit yesterday one compared to
7:49
Speaker 3: the hundreds that should have been going through over the
7:52
Speaker 3: last three months. So you can see how this is
7:55
Speaker 3: having catastrophic effects on the global economy. Brent crude, as
7:59
Speaker 3: I said, has already gone up. You will begin to see,
8:03
Speaker 3: Let's say, if we're in this stasis and every day
8:06
Speaker 3: the price of oil has been going up by like
8:08
Speaker 3: two or three percent, well you know over a week
8:12
Speaker 3: you're up by ten Well, how does that translate? It
8:14
Speaker 3: translates almost immediately into the price that you're going to
8:17
Speaker 3: be paying at the gas pump, right, So didn't you
8:19
Speaker 3: and I notice It's like, man, they're real quick to
8:21
Speaker 3: raise those prices whenever they need to write, Like in
8:24
Speaker 3: a single weekend, you can see the price of gas
8:26
Speaker 3: go up by twenty or thirty cents. And if that's
8:29
Speaker 3: the case, then six dollars gas in California, very.
8:32
Speaker 1: Very easy to see.
8:33
Speaker 3: Within the next week or so period, it's already at
8:35
Speaker 3: five ninety two a gallon. Let's also continue then with
8:39
Speaker 3: how the Iranians want to play this. So while Trump
8:42
Speaker 3: in that same Axios report that you talked about, they're
8:45
Speaker 3: saying the Iranians only understand force. He also happens to
8:49
Speaker 3: be on the phone with Mark Tison, Jack Keene, and
8:52
Speaker 3: Lindsey Graham, who happened to be three of the most
8:55
Speaker 3: prominent neo cons probably in all of Washington, very tried
8:59
Speaker 3: and true Fox News guests. Just in case you aren't aware,
9:02
Speaker 3: Taston worked for George W. Bush, Jack Kane literally Emmy's
9:05
Speaker 3: architect of the surge. He's like Fox News as a
9:07
Speaker 3: resident general, never seen a war in more recent times
9:10
Speaker 3: that he doesn't want to support. And then Lindsey Graham,
9:14
Speaker 3: I also not to tie in too much of a
9:16
Speaker 3: later part of our show.
9:17
Speaker 1: I don't think it's an accident.
9:18
Speaker 3: Why Lindsay Graham is the chief co sponsor and introducer
9:21
Speaker 3: of the Ballroom Act. He's trying to curry favor with
9:23
Speaker 3: Donald Trump. He knows the way to Donald Trump's heart
9:26
Speaker 3: is via this ballroom and in fact getting taxpayers to
9:29
Speaker 3: fund it. So there is a big game going on
9:32
Speaker 3: here now in the Iranian side.
9:33
Speaker 1: We just talked here about Trump.
9:35
Speaker 3: You know, it is always important to try and look
9:38
Speaker 3: at your own country the way a foreign correspondent would.
9:41
Speaker 3: And so what we're about to show you is a
9:43
Speaker 3: secretary of State talking about how the hardliners are ascendant
9:46
Speaker 3: inside of Iran. You could say this is the very
9:48
Speaker 3: same thing here. But here's what the Secretary of State
9:51
Speaker 3: also said. Let's take a listen.
9:52
Speaker 6: Unfortunately, the hardliners with an apocalyptic vision of the future
9:56
Speaker 6: have the ultimate power in that country. That tension is
9:59
Speaker 6: always a existed there always. I think it's pronounced now
10:02
Speaker 6: that you have a supreme leader whose credibility is still untested,
10:06
Speaker 6: whose access is questionable, who has not been seen visibly publicly,
10:09
Speaker 6: has not spoken, We have not heard his voice, so
10:12
Speaker 6: I think that creates tension in the system as well.
10:14
Speaker 3: So that's what he says there about the hardlinner. It's
10:16
Speaker 3: actually a new story out just this morning. It says
10:19
Speaker 3: from Financial Times, and the dateline is in Tehran, so
10:22
Speaker 3: I'm assuming that they have very good sources here. Iran's
10:24
Speaker 3: hardliners are clashing over talks with the US. In the
10:28
Speaker 3: three weeks since the ceasefire came into effect, long standing
10:31
Speaker 3: divisions among arrival camps within Iran's political elite have broken
10:35
Speaker 3: out into the open, fueling a domestic debate over what
10:38
Speaker 3: the Islamic.
10:39
Speaker 1: Republics should do next.
10:40
Speaker 3: At the heart of the dispute, which is played out
10:42
Speaker 3: in parliament and state media, is it pushed by the
10:44
Speaker 3: most hardline politicians to oppose any negotiations with the United States.
10:49
Speaker 3: The primary target is Mohammed Budger Glibov, the veteran parliamentary
10:53
Speaker 3: speaker who led the talks with the Vice President earlier
10:56
Speaker 3: this month. Politicians who have been linked to Quote Pidar,
11:00
Speaker 3: an influential hard line faction, are now suggesting that negotiators
11:04
Speaker 3: have not fully followed the directives set by the new
11:07
Speaker 3: Supreme Leader. The Ayatola Kamani negotiations are now pure damage
11:12
Speaker 3: and nobody should go for negotiations, one of those members
11:16
Speaker 3: told a local media organization in Tehran. He also criticized
11:21
Speaker 3: inclusion of the Iranian nuclear program in talks as a
11:24
Speaker 3: strategic mistake and implied this is not what a top
11:27
Speaker 3: leader had sought. Another hard line politician told State TV
11:32
Speaker 3: the Supreme Leader opposes continuing the talks, and officials should
11:36
Speaker 3: know that at the sensitive time, their obligation is to
11:38
Speaker 3: thoroughly obey and carry out the guidelines of the Supreme Leader.
11:42
Speaker 3: So this is all factional control fights playing out in public.
11:47
Speaker 3: The fact is, I mean, or maybe what the fact is?
11:50
Speaker 3: We don't know for sure. The Supreme Leader appears to
11:53
Speaker 3: be injured, and more recently there have been multiple reports
11:56
Speaker 3: come out that said he's basically given de facto control
11:59
Speaker 3: over to his generals. So then what do the generals
12:02
Speaker 3: think and are they writing orders in his name? None
12:05
Speaker 3: of this is really known for sure as part of
12:08
Speaker 3: what's so difficult, and I would again compare it to
12:10
Speaker 3: our own system, where there are multiple warring facts inside
12:14
Speaker 3: of our government. We have different advisors and outside forces,
12:17
Speaker 3: and all of us are trying to read the tea leaves.
12:19
Speaker 3: It's a very unstable, chaotic situation with extremely high stakes
12:23
Speaker 3: in the streets.
12:23
Speaker 2: Of hormous Yeah, well, I really love your approach of
12:26
Speaker 2: let's look at it as like a foreign correspondent would
12:29
Speaker 2: look at our own system. I mean, our entire next
12:30
Speaker 2: block is going to be about jd Vance World leaking
12:33
Speaker 2: about how Pete Hegseth is lying to the president. Right,
12:36
Speaker 2: there's a bunch of articles on about the clash inside
12:39
Speaker 2: the Pentagon between heg Seth and Dan Driscoll and all
12:43
Speaker 2: of these firings that have come about because heg Seth
12:46
Speaker 2: wants to undercut anyone who might be aligned with Driscoll
12:49
Speaker 2: or who might be too close to the president. So, yeah,
12:53
Speaker 2: you can see reflections of those sort of battles and
12:56
Speaker 2: debates and factional infighting very easily within our own regime
13:01
Speaker 2: as well.
13:02
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and put a.
13:04
Speaker 2: Three up on the screen, because this gets to some
13:07
Speaker 2: of the actions that are being taken here, some of
13:09
Speaker 2: the rhetoric that is happening also between the US and Iran.
13:14
Speaker 2: Just in terms of whether or not we are going
13:16
Speaker 2: to be escalating or whether things will be cooling. You've
13:19
Speaker 2: got Janine Piro here saying, overnight, pursuant to a seizure
13:23
Speaker 2: warrant sumittimized by office and signed by a federal magistrate,
13:26
Speaker 2: US forces interdicted the dark fleet vessel NT Majestic, formerly
13:31
Speaker 2: known as the MPTY Phoenix, while carrying approximately one point
13:34
Speaker 2: nine million barrels of Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean.
13:37
Speaker 4: She goes on to say.
13:38
Speaker 2: There was another similar seizure that we had talked about
13:42
Speaker 2: previously on the show, and this is a response from
13:45
Speaker 2: an Iranian official who says, this is outright legalization of
13:50
Speaker 2: piracy and armed robbery on the high seas. Welcome to
13:54
Speaker 2: the return of the pirates, only now they operate with
13:57
Speaker 2: government issued warrant sale under official flags called their plunder
14:00
Speaker 2: law enforcement. The US must be held accountable for this
14:03
Speaker 2: brazenly lawless behavior, which strikes at the heart of international
14:06
Speaker 2: law and international free trade and threatens the basic principles
14:10
Speaker 2: of maritime security and sagara. I saw another Iranian official
14:14
Speaker 2: reacting to this analysis that there would be you know,
14:17
Speaker 2: if the blockade on the US side continues and their
14:21
Speaker 2: Iranian oil production has to be shut down because they
14:24
Speaker 2: run auto storage capacity, thereby damaging some of that you know,
14:29
Speaker 2: oil production capacity. That if they were damaged, that they
14:33
Speaker 2: would consider that, you know, damage through war, and that
14:35
Speaker 2: they would strike and not just equally damage other oil
14:40
Speaker 2: producing facilities in the region, but you know, for every
14:43
Speaker 2: one amount of damage, they would strike four blows in return.
14:48
Speaker 2: So this is the type of rhetoric and actions that
14:50
Speaker 2: are being traded back and forth right now.
14:55
Speaker 3: Similar thing, guys, let's add this in post production, because
14:58
Speaker 3: it's all coming out this morning. Iran is ludded with
15:00
Speaker 3: so much unsold oil it is stashing it in derrelic tanks,
15:04
Speaker 3: it said. Iran is scrambling to find ways to store
15:06
Speaker 3: its oil, hoping to avoid crippling production shutdown as a
15:10
Speaker 3: US naval blockade bottles up with oil backing up at home,
15:13
Speaker 3: it is reviving derylic sites known as junk storage, using
15:16
Speaker 3: improvised containers, and trying to ship crude by rail to China.
15:20
Speaker 3: The unusual steps are aimed at delaying an infrastructure crisis
15:23
Speaker 3: and blunting Washington's leverage. So Iran hopes to avoid the
15:27
Speaker 3: risk of having to turn off the spigots and deepen
15:30
Speaker 3: its revenue losses.
15:31
Speaker 1: The shutdown would add pressure.
15:32
Speaker 3: And motivate the negotiations, but it gets to your point
15:36
Speaker 3: where when you get to that, and you get to
15:38
Speaker 3: the point where you have to turn the pigot off.
15:40
Speaker 3: Remember Opek already had to do that. Saudi Arabia, UAE,
15:43
Speaker 3: many of these other countries, due to the continued closure
15:47
Speaker 3: of the straits and removes, many of them already suffered this.
15:49
Speaker 3: Now Iran is saying, if we suffer this even a
15:51
Speaker 3: little bit, we might further hit some of that oil infrastructure.
15:54
Speaker 3: And consider a damage that has been has done to
15:57
Speaker 3: us as a result of a war. And remember, you know,
16:00
Speaker 3: just because bombs are not going off, a naval blockade
16:03
Speaker 3: is an act of war under every recognized theory of warfare,
16:08
Speaker 3: not even just international law. A blockade itself as announced
16:11
Speaker 3: by the President of the United States. So it's not
16:14
Speaker 3: like they don't have the ability to go more kinetic
16:17
Speaker 3: if they don't need to. And then you couple all
16:20
Speaker 3: of that with these negotiation tactics being set forth by
16:24
Speaker 3: the Iranians. Jeremy Skahill over at drop Site has a
16:27
Speaker 3: great story. Let's put it up here on the screen,
16:30
Speaker 3: he says, as Trump's narrative on negotiation flails, Iran is
16:34
Speaker 3: setting its own terms for ending the war. They say
16:38
Speaker 3: that they believe they have three ms on its side, munitions, markets,
16:43
Speaker 3: and the midterms. And you know, reading through this, it
16:46
Speaker 3: is actually quite interesting. Just I don't necessarily agree, but
16:50
Speaker 3: this is their general theory. The Iranians are saving the
16:53
Speaker 3: three ms. Obviously in the US they want something to say,
16:56
Speaker 3: we squeezed around and we got this. My perception is
16:59
Speaker 3: that the ira means are keen to deny the United States,
17:02
Speaker 3: that they wouldn't give Trump what he wants as a victory.
17:06
Speaker 3: And the reason why that they look at munitions, markets
17:08
Speaker 3: in the midterms. Midterms obviously is a much longer term strategy.
17:11
Speaker 3: They want to tank Donald Trump's administration and really all
17:14
Speaker 3: of his presidency by tying him up. It's already been
17:17
Speaker 3: several months now that we've been involved in this, and
17:20
Speaker 3: nobody sees it ending anytime soon. Markets. Obviously, they're targeting
17:24
Speaker 3: the oil markets. Yet the S and P five hundred
17:26
Speaker 3: and all of that remains, they're very high. Has nothing
17:28
Speaker 3: to do with consumer spending. I was reading this morning
17:30
Speaker 3: the Tech companies just had their best month since two
17:34
Speaker 3: thousand and two, so it's that's what's really propping up
17:38
Speaker 3: the majority of our markets and then munitions. So obviously
17:41
Speaker 3: all we're going to spend a lot of time in
17:43
Speaker 3: our next block talking about this. But they can do
17:45
Speaker 3: the same math that we can. It's all open source
17:47
Speaker 3: and it's all out in the public. Not the exact numbers,
17:49
Speaker 3: but the general percentages. They have a pretty good idea
17:52
Speaker 3: of what they've been able to expend, and all of
17:54
Speaker 3: those give them a strategic advantage for a negotiated press.
17:59
Speaker 3: The problem is that Trump and Israel, especially with Trump
18:02
Speaker 3: with Israel and his ear with a lot of these
18:04
Speaker 3: neo cons in his ear, they could still escalate even further,
18:07
Speaker 3: fulfill their civilization ending you know, proclamation, and then we're
18:12
Speaker 3: never getting out of this thing. It will be a
18:14
Speaker 3: decades long conflict.
18:17
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean absolutely, that is certainly on the table
18:20
Speaker 2: at this point, and I think Jeremy's reporting is important
18:24
Speaker 2: for understanding that whether or not they're right, and I
18:27
Speaker 2: actually think, you know, I think they make some good
18:29
Speaker 2: points in terms of the points of leverage that they have,
18:32
Speaker 2: especially given the fact that the American public is not
18:36
Speaker 2: behind this war, has never been behind this war, does
18:39
Speaker 2: not want to be in this That there is a
18:41
Speaker 2: key election coming up this fall, that there is a
18:46
Speaker 2: lot of pressure on Trump market pressure, they're you know,
18:50
Speaker 2: obviously the stockpiles, and then I think the midterms a
18:52
Speaker 2: really critical point. And that's something they have been saying
18:55
Speaker 2: from the very beginning. So when we talk to Professor
19:00
Speaker 2: Morandi and asked him, I think you pressed him on like,
19:03
Speaker 2: isn't the ceasefire kind of a mistake from an Iranian perspective?
19:07
Speaker 2: His argument was no, because the longer this gets drawn out,
19:12
Speaker 2: the more days that tick by, the closer we get
19:15
Speaker 2: to those midterms, and the more that the economic pressure
19:18
Speaker 2: on the US and the rest of the globe mounts.
19:22
Speaker 2: So that is the way that they are viewing it.
19:25
Speaker 2: Any idea that you know, oh, if we just do
19:27
Speaker 2: one more blockade, or if we just do one more
19:29
Speaker 2: bombing campaign, or maybe if we attack some you know,
19:33
Speaker 2: defenses around the Street of Hormuz, then they're going to
19:36
Speaker 2: come to the table. Then we're going to get the
19:37
Speaker 2: deal of our dreams that's going to be vastly superior
19:40
Speaker 2: to anything that anyone could have gotten before.
19:42
Speaker 4: Is pure fantasy.
19:43
Speaker 2: I mean, really, what you're talking about here is the
19:46
Speaker 2: war continuing at some level until Trump realizes that some
19:51
Speaker 2: level of humiliating defeat is what is going to be
19:54
Speaker 2: required to end this thing and extricate ourselves and try to,
19:59
Speaker 2: you know, rebuild and restore the you know, the the
20:04
Speaker 2: baseline status quo that we had before. And the reality
20:06
Speaker 2: is that the real status quo, and with regard to
20:08
Speaker 2: the straight of Homboz and the way that world power
20:10
Speaker 2: is distributed, et cetera, is gone and it's not coming back.
20:13
Speaker 2: But you know how this logic work, Soca, and this
20:15
Speaker 2: is how you end up staying in Afghanistan for a
20:17
Speaker 2: million years. Is how you end up staying in Iraq
20:19
Speaker 2: for a million years. Nobody wants to end the war
20:22
Speaker 2: because then you have to deal with reality. As long
20:24
Speaker 2: as the war continues to go on. You can have
20:27
Speaker 2: your victory narrative. You can you know, you can just
20:30
Speaker 2: pretend that things are going great and no one has
20:33
Speaker 2: to deal with the actual concrete facts of what the
20:36
Speaker 2: war wrought and what.
20:37
Speaker 4: It meant for your country and for the world.
20:39
Speaker 3: Absolutely, this is the biggest and this is the you know,
20:41
Speaker 3: when we say America is addicted to war. This is
20:43
Speaker 3: why is war is actually the easiest course for everybody already.
20:47
Speaker 3: Look now, gas is four bucks a gallon? Have the
20:51
Speaker 3: have the headlines really caught up with it? If I
20:53
Speaker 3: turned CNN on today, So in the middle of the war, absolutely,
20:56
Speaker 3: that's what the major headline is. What am I likely
20:58
Speaker 3: to see?
20:59
Speaker 1: Probably some more.
20:59
Speaker 3: Stuff about the White House correspondence dinner shooting, because they're
21:02
Speaker 3: all obsessed with that and their own feelings everybody's, isn't
21:05
Speaker 3: it kind of moving on?
21:07
Speaker 1: We're doing ball. You could already see like little things.
21:09
Speaker 3: If you ask the average person, Hey, what's going on,
21:12
Speaker 3: they're gonna know a lot more about Diana Rossini and
21:14
Speaker 3: Mike Vrabel than they are necessarily about what's going on
21:17
Speaker 3: with the Iron negotiation. As long as nobody's dying bombs,
21:20
Speaker 3: things are not blown up four bucks a gallon.
21:22
Speaker 1: It's annoying, you know, but people can move on.
21:24
Speaker 3: Now. I think it's a crisis, but that's generally how
21:27
Speaker 3: things work.
21:27
Speaker 1: Don't believe me. Go look at a RAQ two thousand
21:29
Speaker 1: and five. We had five dollars gas.
21:31
Speaker 3: I would say it was definitely a big story, but
21:33
Speaker 3: there were a lot of others Hurricane Katrina.
21:35
Speaker 1: People have, you know, go.
21:36
Speaker 3: On with their life long the war goes on, KBR, Haliburton,
21:40
Speaker 3: everybody's still getting rich. It's definitely a political problem, but
21:43
Speaker 3: it's not really like the most pressing problem. And that
21:46
Speaker 3: was even with US soldiers who were dying in the conflict.
21:49
Speaker 3: US soldiers and US marines. This time around, you know,
21:52
Speaker 3: we don't have that right now, so you could I
21:54
Speaker 3: could easily see a situation where for Trump they just
21:57
Speaker 3: keep pushing it and then every one once in a
22:00
Speaker 3: while something will flare up. That's what a lot of
22:02
Speaker 3: the Iraq war coverage in the mid two thousands was
22:05
Speaker 3: like that. It would be a eight minute part of
22:08
Speaker 3: our long show, but you wouldn't spend the whole show
22:11
Speaker 3: on it. You would talk about Katrina and gas prices
22:13
Speaker 3: or the Bush tax cuts, right like, everybody had to
22:16
Speaker 3: move on with their life. And this is the issue
22:18
Speaker 3: is that nobody at that time was like, oh my god,
22:21
Speaker 3: what have we done. The easiest thing to do was
22:24
Speaker 3: for the Congress, both Democrat and Republican, to keep rubber
22:26
Speaker 3: stamping one hundred million a month, two hundred million a
22:30
Speaker 3: month to be pumped into this country.
22:31
Speaker 1: And that's how you end up with the twenty year occupation.
22:34
Speaker 3: And I really do think that we are on a
22:37
Speaker 3: road to something like that, and it's only until another
22:41
Speaker 3: big thing happens that then we get to assess what
22:44
Speaker 3: the hell happened. Like, we didn't fully come to terms
22:46
Speaker 3: with Afghanistan until the exit. You know, you and I
22:49
Speaker 3: we've been reading cigar reports and talking about it here for.
22:53
Speaker 1: Years up to that point.
22:54
Speaker 3: So it wasn't a surprise at all to see the
22:56
Speaker 3: Afghan national security forces collapse. But for a lot of people,
22:59
Speaker 3: it was very shocked because you know, a lot of
23:01
Speaker 3: people take in the propaganda, so.
23:03
Speaker 4: I'm not sure I expected them to collapse quite so
23:05
Speaker 4: quickly as they did.
23:06
Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I would have called like they
23:08
Speaker 2: just instantly collapsed, But was I surprised that, you know,
23:12
Speaker 2: over the some period of time.
23:14
Speaker 4: We end up in that situation.
23:16
Speaker 2: And yeah, and then you have to reckon with the
23:18
Speaker 2: fact that we spend all these years in Afghanistan and
23:20
Speaker 2: now Taliban's back in control, after all this lives and
23:23
Speaker 2: treasure that was lost, it just ends, you know, with
23:27
Speaker 2: absolutely nothing having been accomplished, and and worse than nothing,
23:31
Speaker 2: obviously because of the tremendous cost of over that period.
23:34
Speaker 2: And if you're, you know, someone who cares a lot
23:36
Speaker 2: about America's position in the world, and I think this
23:40
Speaker 2: administration certainly does. I think a lot of their acts
23:43
Speaker 2: are sort of desperate attempts to hold on to American hegemony.
23:47
Speaker 2: So Iran is also, you know, in a position to
23:50
Speaker 2: make some significant moves here on the diplomacy front. We
23:52
Speaker 2: could put a four up on the screen. You had
23:55
Speaker 2: them in Russia meeting in Moscow with Putin to strengthen
24:01
Speaker 2: that relationship. Also going to Oman, could put a six
24:05
Speaker 2: up on the screen. This is sort of I don't
24:07
Speaker 2: know what you want to call this, funny, ironic whatever.
24:10
Speaker 2: A super yacht linked to a sanctioned Russian billionaire was
24:13
Speaker 2: able to sail through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday,
24:16
Speaker 2: according to shipping data, one of very few vessels to
24:19
Speaker 2: transit the blockaded shipping lane the heart of the US
24:22
Speaker 2: Iran conflict. And then Tzagara is just seeing this morning
24:25
Speaker 2: that this one's very significant. A Japanese tanker apparently has
24:30
Speaker 2: secured the ability to transit through the stick straight. Now
24:33
Speaker 2: why is that significant? Obviously because Japan is a key ally,
24:37
Speaker 2: so we already have. Yesterday we talked about how the
24:39
Speaker 2: German Chancellor was like, the entire nation of the US
24:42
Speaker 2: is being humiliated by Iran. There is no exit insight.
24:47
Speaker 2: You know, this is a complete disaster, so speaking this
24:49
Speaker 2: very unvarnished way that they were not speaking in at
24:52
Speaker 2: the beginning of this war whatsoever. And now you increasingly
24:56
Speaker 2: see key US allies going Iran and saying, all right,
24:59
Speaker 2: we need this OI, like, what do we need to do.
25:01
Speaker 2: Let's make a deal, and we know Iran's terms. Their
25:04
Speaker 2: terms are we're going to direct you through this particular
25:07
Speaker 2: shipping lane, You're going to pay a toll, and that
25:09
Speaker 2: toll is going to be either in crypto or it's
25:11
Speaker 2: going to be in Chinese one.
25:13
Speaker 4: So apparently those are the sorts of deals.
25:15
Speaker 2: That already our key allies are beginning to strike because
25:18
Speaker 2: they have no choice. I mean, East Asia is just
25:21
Speaker 2: absolutely screwed by not only Iranian control, and our blockade
25:28
Speaker 2: is really really hurting them. I mean, as much as
25:32
Speaker 2: four dollars gallon gas at the pump hurts Americans, it's
25:36
Speaker 2: nothing compared to what they are already experiencing. So if
25:40
Speaker 2: you want to see what the future looks like, look
25:42
Speaker 2: at what's happening in East Asia right now.
25:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, we didn't. It's all in Japanese. It wouldn't make
25:46
Speaker 3: any sense. But there was a television segment that happened
25:49
Speaker 3: in Japan a few days ago where they celebrated the
25:52
Speaker 3: arrival of a single oil tanker from the United States,
25:56
Speaker 3: and they were like, wow, look at this great and
25:58
Speaker 3: it was like a big headline piece of news. One
26:02
Speaker 3: tanker from the United States which had enough oil to
26:06
Speaker 3: supply Japan for half of one day of their entire consumption.
26:10
Speaker 3: Just to be very clear about how bad things are
26:13
Speaker 3: over there. No, it's not a surprise at all. Remember,
26:16
Speaker 3: Korea is also scrambling for oil. It's interesting to this
26:19
Speaker 3: point the Koreans and the Japanese are you know, originally
26:22
Speaker 3: when the war was happening, they were really sounding the alarm.
26:25
Speaker 1: So I've been reading their press. They've been trying to
26:27
Speaker 1: tamp down.
26:27
Speaker 3: The Japanese Prime minister actually is in a open conflict
26:31
Speaker 3: right now with the opposition over whether to do basically
26:34
Speaker 3: a bailout, a supplemental budget in order to purchase or
26:37
Speaker 3: you know, flood the economy again. As I understand it,
26:40
Speaker 3: I'm a layman, and I'm trying to read their Google
26:42
Speaker 3: Translate of their news, but as I get it, they're
26:44
Speaker 3: an argument over supplemental funding in a budget and over
26:49
Speaker 3: energy conservation because she's under fire right now and she
26:52
Speaker 3: keeps saying I'm not going to tell the population yet
26:56
Speaker 3: to cut down on their energy consumption. There's been some
26:59
Speaker 3: volunteer efforts, but she's under at least some internal pressure
27:02
Speaker 3: and press questions to be like, hey, when are you
27:04
Speaker 3: going to institute some sort of quotas, When are you
27:07
Speaker 3: going to institute, you know, a mandatory reduction in the
27:10
Speaker 3: amount of energy that's used. I think all of them
27:13
Speaker 3: are really hoping and they're trying to quiet down panic signals.
27:16
Speaker 3: But yeah, I mean, eventually, oil stocks are going to
27:19
Speaker 3: be oil stocks, so you have to look at it clearly.
27:22
Speaker 3: I believe that they triggered another release of their strategic
27:26
Speaker 3: petroleum reserve, and remember they do have a very very
27:28
Speaker 3: large one, almost two hundred days because they're so so
27:32
Speaker 3: reliant on Middle Eastern oil. I know Korea also struck
27:35
Speaker 3: a lot of deals with Kazakhstan and with others, but
27:38
Speaker 3: by and large, like the amount of oil that just
27:41
Speaker 3: continues to go that came from the Straits over moves
27:43
Speaker 3: is just impossible to replace in the immediate terms with
27:46
Speaker 3: the numbers of their own consumption without genuine drastic effects
27:51
Speaker 3: on their overall economy. So you will see much much
27:55
Speaker 3: more of this. Arachi was in Moscow, you know, clearly.
27:58
Speaker 3: I think that's maybe one of the reasons that I
27:59
Speaker 3: rushed supertanker or super yacht was able to go through.
28:03
Speaker 3: Maybe this is a gesture of goodwill to the Russian
28:06
Speaker 3: oligarical class. So I think you could start to put
28:09
Speaker 3: some of these things together and you can really look
28:11
Speaker 3: at how the world is shifting. The Germans, you know,
28:14
Speaker 3: the German chancellor, the Japanese potentially paying the toll, the
28:17
Speaker 3: Russian supertanker.
28:19
Speaker 1: The control over this choke point is.
28:21
Speaker 3: Just so so so important, and I guess was apparently
28:25
Speaker 3: underestimated by the US, which is just incredible in retrospect.
28:32
Speaker 2: Sager, I understand, we have some significant breaking news this
28:34
Speaker 2: morning speaking to the economic damage and the way that's
28:38
Speaker 2: already reshaping the globe.
28:39
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and put this up here on the screen.
28:41
Speaker 3: Just broke as we were recording full statement. The United
28:45
Speaker 3: Arab Emirates is saying that it will officially leave the
28:48
Speaker 3: OPEC cartel on May one, not just OPEK, but OPEC Plus.
28:52
Speaker 3: We're going to go and put their statement up here
28:54
Speaker 3: and I will read from it. They say, the UAE
28:56
Speaker 3: has today announced its decision to exit the Organization of
28:59
Speaker 3: Petroleum xiwar In Countries and Plus effective May first. The
29:02
Speaker 3: decision reflects UAE's long term strategic and economic vision, evolving
29:07
Speaker 3: energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production. The
29:12
Speaker 3: decision follows a comprehensive review of UAE's production policy and
29:17
Speaker 3: its current and future capacity. Is based on our national
29:19
Speaker 3: interests and our commitment to contributing effectively to meeting the
29:24
Speaker 3: market's pressing needs. Sovereign responsibility in a new energy age.
29:28
Speaker 1: They say.
29:29
Speaker 3: While near term volatility disruptions of the Arabian Golf and
29:32
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect supply dynamics, underlying
29:36
Speaker 3: trends point to sustained growth in global energy demand over
29:39
Speaker 3: the medium to long term.
29:40
Speaker 1: Yeah, sure it does.
29:41
Speaker 3: A stable energy system depends on flexible, reliable and affordable supply,
29:46
Speaker 3: and they say, following its exit, the UAE will continue
29:49
Speaker 3: to act responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a
29:52
Speaker 3: gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and with market conditions.
29:57
Speaker 3: Now you can read this and whatever corporate speak that
30:00
Speaker 3: you want.
30:00
Speaker 1: This is a titanic move.
30:02
Speaker 3: The UAE, I have the numbers here in front of me,
30:05
Speaker 3: is roughly between ten to thirteen percent of total OPEC output.
30:10
Speaker 3: It is also one of the very few countries in
30:13
Speaker 3: Opak that has spare capacity, which allows them to fluctuate
30:17
Speaker 3: the amount of production. It is pretty obvious I think
30:20
Speaker 3: from this statement they want to pump a lot more
30:22
Speaker 3: oil than necessarily opack in them want to do to
30:26
Speaker 3: flood the market and to get as much dollars in
30:28
Speaker 3: their pockets as were Real's or whatever, you know, a
30:31
Speaker 3: dollars real Juan Crypto. I think they're probably taking it
30:35
Speaker 3: all at this time. But I mean, the reason why
30:38
Speaker 3: this is so important is it is the biggest I
30:41
Speaker 3: think sign yet of what the inevitable fortieth order consequences
30:44
Speaker 3: of war always wrought, a new world order, a new empire.
30:48
Speaker 1: And here a significant chink.
30:50
Speaker 3: In the armor of one of the you know, Opak
30:53
Speaker 3: one of the most successful oil cartels in or one
30:56
Speaker 3: of the most cart successful cartels in the history of
30:58
Speaker 3: mankind in their ability to control energy production, oil production,
31:03
Speaker 3: the price of oil.
31:04
Speaker 1: It's geopolitically massively important.
31:06
Speaker 3: We learned all of that during the embargo back in
31:09
Speaker 3: the nineteen seventies. So just looking at this in its face,
31:12
Speaker 3: the UAE is charting a very interesting course which will
31:16
Speaker 3: dramatically change the entire way that things work in the
31:22
Speaker 3: in the Middle East. You have the UAE here, which
31:24
Speaker 3: accepted idea of soldiers on its own soil during the
31:28
Speaker 3: course of the war iron dome systems. They're now leaving
31:31
Speaker 3: Opek maybe at the Behaes to the United States or not.
31:34
Speaker 3: I'm really not sure exactly how that is working, but
31:37
Speaker 3: they're charting their own type of course. They went all
31:40
Speaker 3: in really on the Iran Warran I think they lost,
31:42
Speaker 3: and so now they have to really probably just continue
31:45
Speaker 3: to go all in and maybe sell as much oil
31:47
Speaker 3: as humanly possible to try and salvage their image. Dubai Airport,
31:53
Speaker 3: the city of Dubai. They need to restore some sense
31:56
Speaker 3: of normalcy, but they've also gone so hard against the
31:59
Speaker 3: Iranians that they need to finish the job. I don't
32:01
Speaker 3: know exactly everything that they're thinking, obviously, I'm just reacting
32:04
Speaker 3: to this in real time. But all the oil analysts
32:07
Speaker 3: are reacting to this as like a major holy shit
32:10
Speaker 3: moment from Weaken.
32:10
Speaker 2: Say, yeah, well, there's a lot to you know, to
32:13
Speaker 2: think about and to speculate about here. I have one
32:15
Speaker 2: thing to say very clearly is we knew UA was
32:18
Speaker 2: under a significant amount of financial pressure already, because they'd
32:21
Speaker 2: already come to us and said, hey, we may need
32:23
Speaker 2: this currency swap line, which the you know, Trump investent
32:27
Speaker 2: at all have seemed to be willing to offer them.
32:30
Speaker 2: And the reason why is because they don't want them
32:33
Speaker 2: to start dumping treasuries into the market or dumping I
32:36
Speaker 2: mean these you know, goulf air nations. UA in particular,
32:39
Speaker 2: they hold a lot of US assets of all sorts.
32:42
Speaker 2: So if they start having to sell off their US
32:45
Speaker 2: held stock portfolio, well that could crash the market. And
32:49
Speaker 2: god knows, you know, the rich people who support Donald Trump,
32:51
Speaker 2: which and he's you know, watching the markets very closely,
32:54
Speaker 2: they don't want that. So we knew that UA was
32:57
Speaker 2: under this financial pressure. We've been taught talking since effectively
33:01
Speaker 2: day one of this war. The way that the war
33:04
Speaker 2: is so devastating for them because so much of their
33:06
Speaker 2: attempt to diversify beyond being you know, an oil backed nation.
33:11
Speaker 4: Was this branding of.
33:13
Speaker 2: Dubai of Abu Dhabi, and that is something that once
33:16
Speaker 2: it's hit it may be impossible to bring back. So
33:20
Speaker 2: I think it's a sign of the financial pressure. You're right,
33:22
Speaker 2: it could be that the US told them we want
33:25
Speaker 2: you to leave Opek and you know, produce as much
33:28
Speaker 2: oil as you possibly can. That is also if that's
33:31
Speaker 2: the case, that's an indication of how much the US
33:35
Speaker 2: is feeling the squeeze. As you know, capacity has been
33:39
Speaker 2: and billions of a billion barrels of oil taken off
33:42
Speaker 2: the market because of the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz,
33:46
Speaker 2: So that would be an indication of how much pressure
33:48
Speaker 2: the US is feeling. But you know, if you think
33:50
Speaker 2: about it more broadly, Look, what's the This is very obvious,
33:54
Speaker 2: but what's the reason why anyone participates in a cartel?
33:56
Speaker 2: Because it's guaranteed over the long run to be more profitable.
34:01
Speaker 2: So it's an indication that they have decided they're in
34:04
Speaker 2: a desperate enough situation they need to deal with the
34:07
Speaker 2: short term and try to pump out as much oil
34:09
Speaker 2: as possible and try to get as much as they
34:12
Speaker 2: can right now versus prioritizing the long run profitability, because
34:16
Speaker 2: in the long run, like obviously that sort of cartel collaboration,
34:22
Speaker 2: the reason, whole reason you do it is to increase
34:24
Speaker 2: the profitability to control the market in a way that
34:27
Speaker 2: is beneficial to all of the participants in the cartel.
34:30
Speaker 3: Reading here just a more immediate now analysis from the
34:33
Speaker 3: Financial Times it golf under This move by the Golf
34:37
Speaker 3: State underlines long running frustration with the group of oil
34:40
Speaker 3: exporters over production quotas and specifically tensions with Saudi Arabia.
34:44
Speaker 3: Comes as the world is grappling with the biggest energy
34:46
Speaker 3: crisis in decades. The UAE has for several years expressed
34:49
Speaker 3: its frustration with OPEC as it has been annoyed by
34:52
Speaker 3: the cartel's production quotas and prevented it from exporting greater
34:56
Speaker 3: quantities of oil. So pump it if you got it,
34:59
Speaker 3: I guess is the mantra. The problem is export it
35:02
Speaker 3: where there's no oil that's leaving. So I don't know,
35:06
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a desperate move. Very likely again pure
35:10
Speaker 3: speculation on my part. If they're probably mad, they're mad
35:13
Speaker 3: at Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia, at the end of
35:15
Speaker 3: the day, they've got the East West pipeline and they
35:17
Speaker 3: can still export through the Red Sea. So they're hurting,
35:20
Speaker 3: but they're not hurting nearly as bad. They don't have
35:22
Speaker 3: a total shut in. They also didn't get hit nearly
35:24
Speaker 3: as hard as the UA, which is part of the
35:26
Speaker 3: reason why the UAE was going so hard. But now,
35:29
Speaker 3: as you said, the UAE was already looking for a bailout.
35:32
Speaker 3: They're looking for a dollar swap line or something akin
35:35
Speaker 3: to a semi bailout. I know it's a little bit
35:37
Speaker 3: more complicated than that, but it definitely works out more
35:39
Speaker 3: in their favor. And now here you have them a
35:42
Speaker 3: leaving OPAK. The initial report is they didn't even call
35:45
Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia or any of the other big powers inside
35:48
Speaker 3: of OPEK. And like I said in the beginning, ten
35:50
Speaker 3: to thirteen percent of total OPEC production, and really, I mean,
35:54
Speaker 3: what I think it is, more than anything, is just
35:56
Speaker 3: a sign of desperation there. They have been in this
35:59
Speaker 3: and they've been an OPEC for over fifty years. So
36:02
Speaker 3: the rewriting here of our energy markets, it's just, I
36:05
Speaker 3: mean incredible, Honestly, because now you have the not maybe
36:10
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna say the end of OPAK. At the
36:11
Speaker 3: end of the day, it's ten to thirteen percent. We
36:13
Speaker 3: have a member organization leaving you have the Iranian control
36:18
Speaker 3: over the Straits over moves. Maybe they are you know,
36:20
Speaker 3: maybe they will end up in charge of your charging tolls,
36:24
Speaker 3: like for traffic in and out of the Strait, Saudi
36:27
Speaker 3: Arabia itself, like their control over the GCC, and you know,
36:31
Speaker 3: with where it's always been, all these rival problems between
36:34
Speaker 3: Qatar and the UAE and Saudi Arabia, like all of
36:37
Speaker 3: that is not broken out into the open. So yeah,
36:39
Speaker 3: you can really see things are changing. That's that's really all.
36:43
Speaker 3: That's the big takeaway.
36:45
Speaker 2: And US allies going to Iran making deals Aroun. You know,
36:49
Speaker 2: Iranian leaders traveling around the world to you know, strengthen
36:52
Speaker 2: diplomatic ties with other countries, now recognizing that they have
36:56
Speaker 2: more power in the global system than was previously understood.
37:00
Speaker 2: So you know, and I mean this really gets to
37:03
Speaker 2: the heart of US power and global hegemony. All you know,
37:07
Speaker 2: a lot centered around US as the reserve currency, US dollars,
37:11
Speaker 2: the reserve currency, the petro dollar being a very important
37:14
Speaker 2: part of that. So yeah, very hard to predict what
37:18
Speaker 2: things will look like at the end of this, but
37:19
Speaker 2: one thing that's for sure, the world is not going
37:21
Speaker 2: to be the same.
37:24
Speaker 3: We talked earlier about factional conflicts breaking within the Ranian government, Well,
37:30
Speaker 3: very same thing happening in our government. Let's put this
37:32
Speaker 3: up here on the screen from the Atlantic. Multiple reporters
37:36
Speaker 3: here on the byeline. The two I will draw your
37:39
Speaker 3: attention to are Vivian Salama and Nancy Yusef. These are
37:44
Speaker 3: very very good Pentagon correspondence. I follow them both for
37:48
Speaker 3: years at various different outlets. They decamped to the Atlantic,
37:51
Speaker 3: so their two bylines here definitely makes me pay a
37:54
Speaker 3: lot of attention. And they say the Pentagon may not
37:57
Speaker 3: be telling Trump the full picture about the now. I
38:00
Speaker 3: don't think you really need a reporter to tell you
38:02
Speaker 3: that part. But the rest of it is interesting. They
38:04
Speaker 3: say Vice President Vance is worried about what the US
38:08
Speaker 3: is running low on weapons In closed door meetings, Jade
38:11
Speaker 3: Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department's depiction of the
38:14
Speaker 3: war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what
38:17
Speaker 3: appears to be the drastic depletion of US missile stockpiles.
38:22
Speaker 3: Two senior Administration officials told us the Vice President has
38:26
Speaker 3: queried the accuracy of the information the Pentagon has provided
38:28
Speaker 3: about the war, has expressed concern about the availability of
38:31
Speaker 3: certain missile systems, and discussion with President Trump. The consequences
38:35
Speaker 3: of a dramatic drawdown its reserves are potentially dire. US
38:39
Speaker 3: forces would have to draw from these same stockpiles to
38:41
Speaker 3: defend Taiwan against China, South Korea against North Korea, and
38:45
Speaker 3: Europe against Russia. Both Pete Hegsett, the Secretary of Defense,
38:48
Speaker 3: and General Kine, have publicly said US weapons stockpiles are
38:52
Speaker 3: robust and portrayed the damage to Iranian forces as drastic.
38:56
Speaker 3: Vance's advisors, who spoke with us on the condition of anonymity,
39:00
Speaker 3: told us the Vice President has presented his concerns as
39:02
Speaker 3: his own, rather than accusing Hegzeth Kine of misleading the president.
39:07
Speaker 3: Fans is trying, they said, to avoid making this personal
39:10
Speaker 3: or to create divisions in Trump's war cabinet. Some of
39:13
Speaker 3: his confidants believe, however, the heck says the portrayal has
39:15
Speaker 3: been so positive as to be misleading. In a statement,
39:19
Speaker 3: he said that the Pentagon chief is doing a great job,
39:21
Speaker 3: and cited his work with Trump to ensure a warrior ethos.
39:24
Speaker 3: White House officials said he asked a lot of probing
39:26
Speaker 3: questions about strategic planning, as do all members of the
39:29
Speaker 3: president's national security team. I think that about sums up
39:33
Speaker 3: the whole thing, don't you Is you've got somebody who's
39:36
Speaker 3: got a concern here about the war. But you can't say, hey, sir,
39:40
Speaker 3: they're lying to you because they are.
39:42
Speaker 1: That's very obvious.
39:43
Speaker 3: So you know, you got to play the game, and
39:45
Speaker 3: you got to do it. Oh well, actually he's a
39:47
Speaker 3: great guy. But you know, maybe he's got bad information.
39:51
Speaker 1: Right.
39:51
Speaker 3: It's like no, like the invention, the information is just bad.
39:56
Speaker 3: The problem and I already know this. This is based
39:58
Speaker 3: on no inside info. This is just my own theory.
40:02
Speaker 1: Is Trump loves hegseeth. That's why Hegseth is out on
40:06
Speaker 1: the post.
40:06
Speaker 3: Why do you think he does these bullshit press conferences
40:09
Speaker 3: about how we're taking it to the enemy and you know,
40:11
Speaker 3: the warrior ethos and everybody loves President Trump and decisive
40:15
Speaker 3: leadership and we're winning. Why do you think that they
40:18
Speaker 3: do that, right? They do it for his consumption. Trump
40:21
Speaker 3: loves it and he berates the press. What did he say,
40:24
Speaker 3: Compare them again, I don't know anything about the Bible.
40:26
Speaker 3: Something about pharisees. He's like, people are pharisees, like some
40:29
Speaker 3: biblical curse or something on the members of the press corps,
40:33
Speaker 3: Like that's what it was all. It's all designed for
40:35
Speaker 3: one audience, so that whenever he goes to him and
40:38
Speaker 3: tells him how much we're winning, he's gonna believe it.
40:41
Speaker 3: And then same with the munition stuff, like remember those
40:44
Speaker 3: early truths from Trump, we have all the weapons we
40:47
Speaker 3: could ever need.
40:48
Speaker 1: Where do you think it's coming from? Right?
40:50
Speaker 3: Does anybody put in a spreadsheet in front of the
40:52
Speaker 3: man and being like, here's what you use and here's
40:54
Speaker 3: what we got left. Or they're saying, don't worry, there's
40:56
Speaker 3: plenty more to pull from, but they're not explaining necesscessarily
41:00
Speaker 3: the consequences. At the end of the day, Let's just
41:02
Speaker 3: be clear. This is all Trump's fault. He isn't who
41:04
Speaker 3: wanted to do this. He's not a complete idiot. He
41:07
Speaker 3: can read.
41:07
Speaker 1: He reads the same Wall Street.
41:08
Speaker 3: Journal pieces that you or I do about munition stockpile,
41:13
Speaker 3: so he knows if he wants to. But he's also
41:15
Speaker 3: being told something very very different from a lot of
41:17
Speaker 3: the people who are directly in charge of running the war.
41:20
Speaker 2: Well, and Trump decides to believe the things that he
41:23
Speaker 2: wants to believe. That's why when our own military officials
41:27
Speaker 2: were maybe way too meekly being you know, I see
41:30
Speaker 2: some problems here, right, There could be some issues here, sir,
41:33
Speaker 2: But of course we're.
41:34
Speaker 4: Behind you if you want to do it.
41:36
Speaker 2: What he wanted to hear was the Israelis going, Oh,
41:38
Speaker 2: it'll be cakewalk, don't worry about it, you'll take out
41:41
Speaker 2: the Ayatola. You'll be in and out of there three
41:43
Speaker 2: to four days. Because that's the narrative he wanted to hear.
41:47
Speaker 2: That's what he chose to believe. So he may be
41:50
Speaker 2: reading the same Wall Street Journal pieces about oh, the
41:53
Speaker 2: munitions are diminished in this way and that way, and
41:55
Speaker 2: fifty percent of that used, and you know, sixty percent
41:58
Speaker 2: of this used, and we barely have any interceptors left,
42:01
Speaker 2: and israels down to double digits of interceptors, et cetera.
42:04
Speaker 2: But if you've got someone else coming in with a
42:06
Speaker 2: happier narrative, he'll just go, oh, well, those people are
42:09
Speaker 2: just fake news and they hate America, And I'm going
42:11
Speaker 2: to go with what heagset is showing me in my
42:13
Speaker 2: two minute hype reel of all the ways that we're
42:16
Speaker 2: bombing and destroying the Iranian military. So, you know, he
42:20
Speaker 2: his own mental like, he has his own sort of
42:26
Speaker 2: landscape that he's created, an information bubble that he himself
42:30
Speaker 2: enforces even when counter information is easily readily available. In
42:36
Speaker 2: terms of the Headset dvance thing here too, I mean
42:39
Speaker 2: I think that jd vance based on this and based
42:42
Speaker 2: on other reports that have seemingly come from his camp,
42:46
Speaker 2: I think he wants to have distance from this war
42:48
Speaker 2: because he recognizes it's disastrous, he recognizes it's politically extremely unpopular.
42:55
Speaker 2: He still, you know, wants to be president in the
42:57
Speaker 2: future and thinks that one way that he can help
43:00
Speaker 2: position himself is if there's this track record relaid through
43:05
Speaker 2: the media of all the objections he had and all
43:07
Speaker 2: the concerns he had behind the scenes, etc.
43:09
Speaker 1: Etc.
43:10
Speaker 4: Now, I think that's foolish.
43:11
Speaker 2: I think, you know, your vice president, you're going to
43:14
Speaker 2: own whatever happens at this administration. But there also is
43:17
Speaker 2: that political game that is being played, and this article
43:20
Speaker 2: also indicates that Hext fancies himself a future presidential contender,
43:24
Speaker 2: so he's playing the same game at the same time.
43:26
Speaker 2: His calculus is no. The way for me to get
43:29
Speaker 2: ahead is to be the most sycophantic devotee of Donald Trump,
43:33
Speaker 2: which is why I'm going to do my press briefings
43:35
Speaker 2: at ten am. I know that's a time when Trump
43:38
Speaker 2: is watching Fox News. That's why he's doing all this
43:40
Speaker 2: performative victory narrative more aggressively than literally anyone else, because
43:45
Speaker 2: he knows that what Trump wants to hear. And Pete,
43:49
Speaker 2: whose primary background is in television and Fox News cable production,
43:55
Speaker 2: probably has a better lane to understand the mentality of
43:58
Speaker 2: Donald Trump than basically any one else.
44:00
Speaker 3: I also heard, again this is just from a few people.
44:04
Speaker 3: I heard Pete wants to be the governor of Tennessee.
44:07
Speaker 3: That would be something that he has his eye on,
44:10
Speaker 3: and that's where he used to live previously.
44:12
Speaker 4: Again, I think he should resign and pursue that dream.
44:15
Speaker 2: You know, I think there's no time like the president
44:18
Speaker 2: Carpe DM Pete, go for it, right, you.
44:21
Speaker 1: Know, I mean, it's Tennessee. How much damage can you
44:24
Speaker 1: really do? Right? So I'm sorry Tennessee, all right, I'm sorry.
44:28
Speaker 2: No offense to Tennessee, which I actually do love as
44:30
Speaker 2: a state. But I don't even know who the governor
44:32
Speaker 2: of Tennessee is. That's how important they are to the
44:34
Speaker 2: rest of the nation.
44:36
Speaker 4: So if the.
44:36
Speaker 2: Residents of Tennessee what pete he said to be their governor,
44:39
Speaker 2: I say they should have that.
44:41
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, go for it. To put them in shure.
44:43
Speaker 1: Don't they have great smoky mountains? Isn't that in Tennessee?
44:45
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tennessee is beautiful.
44:47
Speaker 2: He could go great, there's beautiful lakes, there, mountains. It's not.
44:51
Speaker 2: There's a lot of great cities.
44:52
Speaker 4: See.
44:52
Speaker 3: Okay, let's continue here. B two, let's put this up
44:55
Speaker 3: here on the screen again. Just to this uh, to
44:59
Speaker 3: this point. This is from the New York Times. I mean,
45:01
Speaker 3: at a certain point this is almost repetitive, but having
45:03
Speaker 3: it on the record is really important. So let's read
45:06
Speaker 3: all the numbers. The United States has burned eleven hundred
45:09
Speaker 3: long range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China.
45:12
Speaker 3: This is for a person close to the total number
45:15
Speaker 3: of remaining the US stockpile. The military fired off more
45:18
Speaker 3: than one thousand Tamahawk cruise missiles, ten times the number
45:21
Speaker 3: that it currently buys each year. The Pentagon used more
45:25
Speaker 3: than twelve hundred Patriot interceptors in the war, at more
45:27
Speaker 3: than four million dollars of pop and more than one
45:31
Speaker 3: thousand percision strike and atkam at Akam ground based missiles,
45:35
Speaker 3: leaving inventories worrisomely low. Iran war has significantly drained much
45:42
Speaker 3: of the US military's global supply of munitions, and it
45:45
Speaker 3: forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles, and other hardware
45:48
Speaker 3: to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe.
45:51
Speaker 3: The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to
45:54
Speaker 3: confront potential adversaries like Russia and with China. The Defense
45:58
Speaker 3: Department has not disclosed how many munitions it used in
46:01
Speaker 3: the thirty eight days of the war. The Pentagon says
46:03
Speaker 3: it now hit more than thirteen thousand targets. Now, again,
46:06
Speaker 3: if these numbers were bullshit, they would say that they
46:08
Speaker 3: were bullshit.
46:08
Speaker 1: Let's just be very clear about that.
46:10
Speaker 3: So the truth is very clearly that in the first
46:13
Speaker 3: two days alone, two days of war, they fired.
46:16
Speaker 1: Six billion in munitions.
46:18
Speaker 3: Let's do some quick math here for the Patriots twelve
46:22
Speaker 3: hundred times four million. Let's see how much that is
46:27
Speaker 3: so twelve hundred times four million is what that's like?
46:31
Speaker 1: Four point eight billion? Is that right? So I might
46:35
Speaker 1: be totally wrong.
46:36
Speaker 3: It's either forty eight billion or four point eight billion
46:38
Speaker 3: either wy I'm using the Google here, But the point remains,
46:43
Speaker 3: that's an insane number no matter what that it actually is.
46:47
Speaker 3: It's almost unfathomable because we're not just talking about it
46:49
Speaker 3: in terms of dollars. What we're talking about it is
46:52
Speaker 3: in terms of how long would it be to replace
46:55
Speaker 3: set interceptors? And you and I know the answer ten
46:57
Speaker 3: years at a minimum. At a minimum the ten years,
47:01
Speaker 3: which leaves you really really unsafe. And also what China
47:06
Speaker 3: doesn't read the news, Russia doesn't read the news, North
47:09
Speaker 3: Korea doesn't read the news. I think that they all can.
47:11
Speaker 3: They all have New York Time subscriptions. So and again,
47:14
Speaker 3: you know these numbers. One of the most consistent pushback
47:17
Speaker 3: I get when I talk about this is Hugh idiot,
47:20
Speaker 3: You think that they would just tell you the exact number,
47:23
Speaker 3: And I'm like, no, I don't. But we live in
47:27
Speaker 3: actually a much more open society than people take that.
47:30
Speaker 3: People just like seem to forget Pentagon has got to
47:34
Speaker 3: go to Congress, all you gotta do is read these
47:37
Speaker 3: boring ass reports for production timelines, and deep within the
47:41
Speaker 3: spreadsheet are all of the numbers for the last ten years,
47:45
Speaker 3: not the exact number, but a general ballpark, because again
47:48
Speaker 3: they have to justify each weapon system and what they're
47:50
Speaker 3: buying it for. So you have a pretty good idea
47:53
Speaker 3: of what the exact total number is. Now in terms
47:56
Speaker 3: of what's being used, you're really going off of ballparks.
47:59
Speaker 3: But saying, I mean these think tanks and all these people,
48:01
Speaker 3: they are scarily accurate whenever it comes to their overall projection,
48:05
Speaker 3: and it's been tested.
48:07
Speaker 1: Time and time again.
48:07
Speaker 3: They would come out with an estimate from the April
48:10
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four conflict where we shot down all those
48:12
Speaker 3: Iranian missiles and drones headed towards Israel, and then a
48:16
Speaker 3: year later it would all get confirmed in an open
48:19
Speaker 3: source So you really should trust a lot of the
48:21
Speaker 3: stuff because this is not just from leaks. This is
48:23
Speaker 3: also from estimates that have come out from a lot
48:26
Speaker 3: of these think tanks. And the real reason why any
48:29
Speaker 3: of this word matter in the first place. Let's put
48:31
Speaker 3: B three up here on the screen is as they
48:34
Speaker 3: pointed to some of those missiles. They were literally designed
48:37
Speaker 3: for a potential conflict with China, and now you know,
48:40
Speaker 3: the same war planners and others are openly just leaking
48:43
Speaker 3: this stuff. The Iran war complicates contingency plans to defend Taiwan.
48:48
Speaker 3: Fully replacing stockpiles of weapons fired in the Middle East
48:51
Speaker 3: could take up to six years.
48:52
Speaker 1: That's in an accelerated timeline. Let's keep that in mind.
48:55
Speaker 3: And they have burned through so many munitions that some
48:58
Speaker 3: Administration officials increasingly assessed that the US couldn't fully execute
49:02
Speaker 3: these contingency plans from a Chinese invasion if it occurred
49:06
Speaker 3: in the near term. Holly replacing would take up to
49:09
Speaker 3: six years, kicking off discussion in the administration about adjusting
49:12
Speaker 3: operational plans in preparation for any order by the military
49:16
Speaker 3: to defend Taiwan. Shishingping is now preparing to hold this
49:19
Speaker 3: high stake summit in Beijing, and China's military is still
49:23
Speaker 3: reeling from a purge of generals. What they say, though
49:26
Speaker 3: specifically inside of it, is that the people familiar with
49:29
Speaker 3: the munition status didn't detail the precise impact that the
49:32
Speaker 3: depletions would have on the Chinese Russian related talks, but
49:36
Speaker 3: it means that it would potentially increase the on the
49:39
Speaker 3: agenda item for where they would discuss Taiwan in some
49:42
Speaker 3: sort of potential summit. I would also note ahead of
49:46
Speaker 3: the Tan Taiwan summit, something very interesting happened yesterday which
49:49
Speaker 3: very few people paid attention to. Facebook and or Meta
49:53
Speaker 3: tried to acquire this new Chinese AI company. It was
49:57
Speaker 3: a two billion dollar acquisition and they're actually going through
50:01
Speaker 3: it right now. China, out of nowhere just came out
50:05
Speaker 3: barred the founders of the company from leaving the country,
50:09
Speaker 3: and their equivalent of the FTC just came out, and
50:13
Speaker 3: I'm like, yeah, no, that deal, it's not going to
50:16
Speaker 3: go through.
50:16
Speaker 1: Now.
50:17
Speaker 3: Practically the deal probably will still go through because it
50:19
Speaker 3: was already happening and there's some offshore stuff. I don't
50:22
Speaker 3: fully understand it. It's a signal though, to the United
50:25
Speaker 3: States and others, all this financial entanglement that's over. We
50:29
Speaker 3: don't want much more of that. We want it totally
50:31
Speaker 3: on our terms. So I view all of these things
50:33
Speaker 3: as interconnected. You know, their economic leverage is their smartest play.
50:38
Speaker 3: They've used it time and time again, not just US, Korea, Japan,
50:42
Speaker 3: any country that they're having problems with So I put
50:44
Speaker 3: these two things together, They're feeling a little bit more bold.
50:47
Speaker 3: They're definitely going They're building a long game for any
50:50
Speaker 3: potential problems, and they can do math in the same
50:53
Speaker 3: way that we can, except their math looks a hell
50:56
Speaker 3: of a lot better than our math.
50:58
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, listen, this is the goal of every administration,
51:03
Speaker 2: both Republican and Democrats, the idea that our military needs
51:06
Speaker 2: to be of a sufficient size and scope to be
51:10
Speaker 2: able to counter China. Whether you agree without approach or not,
51:14
Speaker 2: that certainly has been what the like, you know, what
51:16
Speaker 2: the US Empire has done, and I think there's an
51:19
Speaker 2: argument for it, Like you don't want to be left vulnerable,
51:22
Speaker 2: you know, I personally think, Look, I feel for the
51:24
Speaker 2: tai Taiwanese people. I personally think it would be insane
51:27
Speaker 2: to go to war with China over Taiwan. But we
51:30
Speaker 2: do need to get our semiconductor act together, and we
51:32
Speaker 2: have not done that. We have not got our act
51:34
Speaker 2: together on any number of the critical supply lines that
51:37
Speaker 2: China has significant control over, which is why when Trump
51:40
Speaker 2: tried to implement a massive terror regime against China, China
51:44
Speaker 2: was like, great, let me show you some of the
51:46
Speaker 2: cards that we hold, and Trump immediately folded to use
51:49
Speaker 2: the analogy that he that he prefers. So, you know,
51:53
Speaker 2: the other way you can tell that this reporting about
51:55
Speaker 2: munitions is relatively spot on is the fact that the
51:59
Speaker 2: administration is desperately trying to get more funds from Congress
52:02
Speaker 2: to rearm both for the short and the longer term.
52:05
Speaker 2: You know, they keep making these announcements that like, oh,
52:07
Speaker 2: we went to the Ford and the automakers so that
52:10
Speaker 2: we can invoke the Defense Production Act and get them
52:12
Speaker 2: to start making helping us with weapons production. And oh,
52:15
Speaker 2: we have this agreement with all of the military industrial
52:18
Speaker 2: complex providers that they're going to quintuple production or whatever
52:23
Speaker 2: the number was. Oh they met with us, and oh
52:25
Speaker 2: my god. Turns out they're happy to make more money.
52:27
Speaker 2: Isn't that crazy? But none of those things are going
52:29
Speaker 2: to be built out until they actually have secured the
52:31
Speaker 2: cash from Congress, which has not happened. So as of now,
52:35
Speaker 2: there is no increased ramped up production. We're still on
52:39
Speaker 2: the same slow timeline and burning through I mean, we
52:43
Speaker 2: burned through so many different types of munitions during the
52:46
Speaker 2: period of this war. And again I think it looks
52:49
Speaker 2: increasingly likely, certainly possible, if not likely, that we will
52:53
Speaker 2: go back into some level of hot conflict because you've
52:57
Speaker 2: got Rubio and Trump both signaling that they do not
53:00
Speaker 2: find this limbo to be satisfactory. You've got continued pressure
53:05
Speaker 2: on the US economy, and all of the logic pushes
53:09
Speaker 2: in the direction of some sort of heightened conflict, you know.
53:12
Speaker 2: At the same time, just to get back to the
53:14
Speaker 2: like vance Hegseth thing, like Hegseth is such an incredible club.
53:17
Speaker 2: This is just such a ridiculous country we live in
53:19
Speaker 2: at this point, we put before up on the screen.
53:21
Speaker 2: Ryan is the first to report this, and then the
53:24
Speaker 2: Pentagon actually confirmed it. They did some whole like presser
53:27
Speaker 2: with Kid Rock, but he had this first.
53:29
Speaker 4: He said.
53:29
Speaker 2: Kid Rock flew to Fort Belvoir this morning on his
53:32
Speaker 2: private jet, took joy ride on too Apache helicopters with
53:35
Speaker 2: War Secretary Pete Hegseth.
53:37
Speaker 4: A courting multiple Army sources. Patchies typically have two pilots.
53:40
Speaker 2: They went up with one so the boys could each
53:42
Speaker 2: ride Shotgun. I'm told Apache helicopters or not stationed at
53:46
Speaker 2: Fort Belvoir, so unclear where they came from. Spokesperson at
53:49
Speaker 2: the base referred questions to the Secretary's office. So we're
53:51
Speaker 2: in the middle of a war and Hegseth, the Secretary
53:55
Speaker 2: of War is spending his time taking Kid Rock on
53:59
Speaker 2: joy rides in military assets. So that's that's kind of
54:03
Speaker 2: the state of the country right now.
54:05
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's almost like two it's like a skit.
54:10
Speaker 1: It's like an SNL skit.
54:11
Speaker 3: You know that they were hanging out with Kid Rock,
54:14
Speaker 3: and Kid Rock even did a brief look whatever, all right,
54:17
Speaker 3: I got nothing against Kid Rock.
54:18
Speaker 1: I guess I like the Born Free song. That's about it.
54:22
Speaker 3: But beyond you know, why is the Secretary of Defense
54:25
Speaker 3: hanging out with Kid Rock and then giving him joy
54:28
Speaker 3: rides on military helicopters and then letting him do like
54:32
Speaker 3: a briefing or whatever with the troops.
54:34
Speaker 1: Maybe the troops.
54:34
Speaker 3: Wanted it, Okay, fine, but you know, just this is
54:37
Speaker 3: where your attention is, dude. Really and remember, you know
54:40
Speaker 3: we talked about his press conferences earlier. He actually gave
54:43
Speaker 3: one on Friday, which is really important for the same
54:46
Speaker 3: victory narrative. Member, this is the stuff that's going into
54:49
Speaker 3: Trump's brain. Let's take a listen.
54:51
Speaker 7: Operation Epic Fury has delivered a decisive military result in
54:55
Speaker 7: just weeks Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan. As resident has pointed out,
55:01
Speaker 7: all took years, decades, vague missions, shifting sands little to
55:08
Speaker 7: show for it. Operation Epic Fury has been laser focused
55:12
Speaker 7: from the very start. As I've said to all of you,
55:15
Speaker 7: clear mission objectives, and ultimately Iran will not.
55:19
Speaker 1: Have a nuclear weapon.
55:22
Speaker 7: It's a bold and dangerous mission, a gift to the world.
55:26
Speaker 7: The War Department stands ready for what comes next, locked
55:30
Speaker 7: and loaded. May God continue to bless our warriors each
55:35
Speaker 7: and every day and on each and every mission.
55:40
Speaker 3: Okay, yeah, this is Korea and Vietnam. They were declaring
55:45
Speaker 3: victory all in the middle. It's so ridiculous. There are
55:48
Speaker 3: a few important things that we didn't want to flag.
55:50
Speaker 3: Let's put the next one up here on the screen.
55:52
Speaker 3: The House is now voting on Josh Gotttheimer's Iran War
55:55
Speaker 3: Powers resolution, and the only Democrat, Jared Golden, to join
55:59
Speaker 3: the Republican's feeding it is an original co sponsor now
56:02
Speaker 3: of the Gottheimer resolution. So nine members had introduced that
56:06
Speaker 3: new war Powers resolution actually on the Iran war, it
56:10
Speaker 3: would still direct the US President to end US military
56:13
Speaker 3: action against the Islamic Republic of Iran within thirty days.
56:17
Speaker 3: So signs of some movement inside of Congress Crystal, but
56:20
Speaker 3: still none of the requisite amount of pushback needed.
56:24
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it. And in the House.
56:26
Speaker 2: This one is really interesting and kind of funny because
56:30
Speaker 2: so when the original war Powers resolution push was being
56:33
Speaker 2: made by Rocanna and Thomas Massey and others gottheimer and
56:37
Speaker 2: Jared Golden and some others introduced this alternative war Powers
56:42
Speaker 2: resolution to which had like, you know, a time frame
56:45
Speaker 2: on it and was much weaker to undercut support for
56:49
Speaker 2: the more fulsome war powers should be offered by Rocanna
56:53
Speaker 2: and Thomas Massey. So now that original and that thing
56:57
Speaker 2: had like, you know, a date set of like, okay,
57:00
Speaker 2: what this is, you know the timeline, and here's how
57:02
Speaker 2: we're going to vote on it, etc. And so now
57:03
Speaker 2: that one is coming up. Jared Golden, who had originally
57:08
Speaker 2: sponsored this war Powers resolution as a way to undercut
57:12
Speaker 2: Rokanna's war Powers resolution, now he is in the position
57:16
Speaker 2: of Okay, so you are originally co sponsor of this
57:19
Speaker 2: thing when you thought that this was going to undercut
57:22
Speaker 2: a vote on a war Powers resolution now that it
57:24
Speaker 2: is actually coming up for a vote, what are you
57:27
Speaker 2: going to do? And of course Julian with Dropsite News
57:31
Speaker 2: caught up with Josh Gottheimer, who was another one who
57:34
Speaker 2: obviously you know, spearheaded this original War Powers resolution and
57:37
Speaker 2: asked him, Hey, did you talk to Jared Golden?
57:40
Speaker 4: What's he going to do?
57:41
Speaker 2: How's he going to vote? Which seems like kind of
57:44
Speaker 2: the first thing you would want to know here in
57:46
Speaker 2: terms of whether it will be successful or not. And
57:48
Speaker 2: he's like, oh, I haven't talked to him.
57:49
Speaker 4: I don't know.
57:49
Speaker 2: So we'll see how all of this goes down, whether
57:52
Speaker 2: Golden votes against his own War Powers resolution, because he
57:56
Speaker 2: actually appears to be pro war. He's also retiring, so
58:00
Speaker 2: doesn't really matter to him politically how he appears, or
58:03
Speaker 2: you know, how much the base hates him appearing as
58:06
Speaker 2: like a you know, a warmonger manger siding with the
58:10
Speaker 2: Trump administration on their disastrous war. So we'll see how
58:13
Speaker 2: this all goes. Maybe they'll find another rotating villain to
58:15
Speaker 2: fill a nut spot to make sure that this one
58:18
Speaker 2: fails as well, but right now the outcome is pretty uncertain,
58:21
Speaker 2: so definitely something to watch