Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 504 - 5/1/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 504 - 5/1/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:01
54321 All systems. Go with Josh.
0:08
Appelbaum starts now. Hello and welcome to episode 5 O
0:17
four of the All Systems Go sports betting podcast powered
0:21
by Rhythm. I'm your host, Josh Appelbaum.
0:29
What's going on, everyone? Happy Friday.
0:32
The end of the week is here, guys.
0:33
We got the weekend. Upon us, as always, Sharp
0:36
reports all best bets. Posted on the Juice Reel app you
0:40
can follow for $4.99 a week. There's my shameless plug to
0:43
kick off the pod. We can get all the plays on the
0:46
weekend because I still get people D Ming me tweeting me
0:49
saying hey, where's the pod on Saturday or Sunday.
0:51
And I tell him, you know what? I'm a dad now.
0:53
I've been, I've been a husband for a couple years, but life's
0:56
getting busy. The weekends.
0:57
I now see what, what my parents look forward to on the weekends
1:00
because you get to, you know, go to go to Home Depot and do all
1:03
the fun things as a, as a young parent, of course, but again,
1:06
pod and no pod on the weekends. But Sharp reports.
1:09
Visen.com at Josh under score Insights Best bets on Juice Reel
1:14
now going to finish off the week, hopefully on a hot note,
1:17
and including the first day of the month of May, which happens
1:21
to be, believe it or not, my birthday.
1:23
That's right, I was born May 1st, 1987, So I am 39 years old
1:29
today. Guys, Can you believe it?
1:30
I mean, man, I'm getting old. I'm getting up there.
1:32
I can feel 40 right around the corner and I feel like yesterday
1:36
I was 17, you know, playing baseball with my friends,
1:39
partying on the weekends. But you know what I like my life
1:42
now better than I ever have. I got, I got a great wife, got a
1:44
house, got a baby and I'm doing what I love to do, which is
1:48
betting on sports and covering the sports betting world.
1:51
So I'm a pretty lucky guy. I might get a little sentimental
1:53
with you guys today, but yeah, not, not a bad birthday.
1:56
We're going out tonight. My mother-in-law is stopping by
1:59
in a couple hours to babysit our our daughter to give me and the
2:03
wife a couple hours off. And we're going to go to my
2:04
favorite restaurant and I'm going to get a steak, which is
2:07
very expensive steak. I never order a steak.
2:11
You know, I never, I never order the $5075 steak.
2:14
But I'll be doing that here tonight and now and then when I
2:17
get home again, this is how old we're getting.
2:20
We have a, we have a 5:00 or 4:45 PM Eastern Time reservation
2:24
here tonight. You know why he did it so early?
2:26
So that I can come home and watch the Boston Bruins.
2:30
I got no bet on the Bruins. I'm a little worried because
2:33
one, thank God we got a game tonight.
2:35
They forced to game six, came back to Boston, but they've been
2:38
so bad at home. It's almost like, you know, they
2:40
get you excited only to lose at home.
2:41
But you know what, I got my daughter in a Bruins onesie.
2:44
So we'll see if we can get a winner here on on her dad's
2:48
birthday. So that that's a big, big
2:49
birthday for me. My favorite restaurant going out
2:52
with the wife, mother in But. In terms of the pod, got three
2:59
more best bets for you today, guys.
3:01
Three Major League Baseball plays, so as always, trying to
3:03
go 2 and 1 eek out a winning day.
3:06
Now looking back toward yesterday, 2 and 2 -, 0.42
3:09
units. So we did have a nice hit with
3:11
the Phillies. Phillies were down bottom of the
3:13
ninth, came back, Bryson Stott had a huge triple.
3:16
And then here's how you know you're getting old.
3:18
Carl Crawford's son, Justin Crawford, had a infield single
3:23
to win the game. So Phil's were a nice hit.
3:25
Couldn't get the Braves, though. They were up to nothing.
3:27
And then their bullpen completely imploded and they
3:30
brought in Joel Piamps. I remember every time I used to
3:33
bet a game and he'd come in, it was usually with Milwaukee, he
3:35
would blow it. And that's exactly what
3:36
happened. So Braves let us down up to
3:38
nothing and then split. Our totals.
3:41
Got the Knicks Hawks over 213 1/2.
3:43
What a terrible performance by Atlanta, but was able to get
3:46
that over, which was nice. Couldn't get the Nuggets over
3:49
224 1/2. Came up just short.
3:52
And believe it or not, you know, I thought for sure the Nugs Wood
3:55
Forest, a game seven with a lot of injuries and no Edwards.
3:58
And of course you have the TT Wolves winning that game
4:01
outright. So two and two, but if you did
4:03
watch the rhythm rundown last night, which was our last rhythm
4:07
rundown before we kick back up in the fall, we did highlight
4:10
the Minnesota Twins. That was a late game with a good
4:13
rhythm system match. So maybe got a little plus money
4:15
on the Twinkies. But either way, guys, let's even
4:17
go 2 and one my birthday today and finish off the week strong.
4:21
Now that being settled to waste no more time because I got an
4:23
early game here that I want to hit on and then we'll go through
4:26
all the three bets here for today and then we'll get out of
4:28
here. So first one on the board.
4:30
Let's go to Chicago. Let's get some Chicago Dogs
4:33
Coach Ditka. Let's look at the Cubbies at
4:36
home against the Diamondbacks. This is a 2:20 PM Eastern Time.
4:40
First pitch. Let's set the stage.
4:42
Talk splits, line moves, and I'll give you my play here.
4:44
So we got the Diamondbacks coming in 16 and 14 on the year.
4:47
Did just drop two or three though against the Brew Crew.
4:50
Lost 13 to 1 yesterday as a + 110 road dog.
4:54
Meanwhile, the Cubbies 19 and 12 off to a great start.
4:57
Just took two or three against the Padres.
4:59
They won that series finale 5 to 4 as a -105 road dog.
5:03
So pitching match up here. We got the Diamondbacks going
5:06
with the righty Zach Gallon. He's one and one with a 3.14
5:10
ERA. You know the Cubbies are going
5:11
to go with the fellow righty Colin Ray.
5:13
He's three and one with a 4.61 ERA.
5:16
What do we see across the market here?
5:18
This game opened with Chicago listed around a -, 135 home
5:22
favorite Arizona around a + 115 row dog and sharps.
5:26
They're hammering the cubbies here because the Cubs have
5:28
gotten steamed up -135 up to now -150 even -155 I'm seeing some
5:34
shops even as high as like -160 So this is a very, very clear,
5:38
massive steam move in favor of the Cubs.
5:40
Tells me we got a lot of big money pouring in on Chicago
5:42
here. Circus got a really good split
5:45
on the Cubs, 65% of money line bets, but 89% of money line
5:50
dollars. So a good low bets, high dollar
5:52
split in favor of Chicago. I always mention this.
5:54
I just took Chicago on the money line.
5:57
I got him a bet MGM -148 but I did notice if you want to go -1
6:02
1/2 + 145 pretty good payout here on the run line.
6:05
Chicago is getting 68% of spread bets, 83% of spread dollars.
6:11
Cubs have that non division favorite value, so lack of
6:13
familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
6:16
They also have that correlative betting favorite low total
6:19
because a very low total in this one of seven.
6:21
Anytime you get a seven in a Cubs game, automatically you can
6:24
assume the winds blowing in, which is the case here, winds
6:27
blowing in about 10 mph from dead center.
6:31
But that would also be a few amount of expected run scored
6:33
more likely to come from quote UN quote that better team
6:36
benefiting. Hopefully Chicago Cubs have the
6:38
better bats. Let's hope they get to Zach
6:40
Gallon today. They're hitting 261 as a team,
6:43
353 on base percentage. They've scored 169 runs.
6:47
Arizona's only hitting 250 with a three O 8 on base percentage.
6:50
They've only scored 141 runs. The other angle that I like with
6:54
Chicago is a big rest first tired because we have Chicago
6:57
who was off yesterday versus the Diamondbacks who played in
7:01
Milwaukee and now travel to Chicago.
7:02
And it's not that, you know, Milwaukee to Chicago is this
7:05
cross country trip. It's really not that far, but
7:07
it's the fact that the Cubs are off and yet the Diamondbacks
7:10
played and have to travel. So that's kind of the advantage
7:12
here. Rest verse tired in favor of the
7:14
Cubs. And we do have a system play for
7:16
that. If you're a rested home favorite
7:18
coming off a day off and you're getting at least $0.05 of line
7:21
movement in your favor, which would match like here with the
7:24
Cubs, those teams are 102 and 5266 percent, 5% ROI since 2025.
7:30
Also, Cubs play pretty good at Wrigley.
7:33
Knock on wood. 11:00 and 5:00 at home.
7:35
D backs 7 and 8 on the road. So you had me at this team,
7:39
guys. Big move here toward Chicago.
7:41
See if we can start off the day with a winner.
7:43
I got the Cubs -148 but shop around.
7:46
A lot of books closer to -150 - 155 even -160 next bet for you,
7:52
7:10 PM Eastern Time. Let's go down to Florida where
7:55
the Tampa Bay Rays are hosting the San Francisco Giants.
7:58
Giants come in 13 and 18 on the year.
8:01
Just got swept by the Phillies. Lost the doubleheader 3 to 2 as
8:05
a + 125 road dog in the second game, six to five as a + 120
8:09
road dog as well. Rays, meanwhile, 18 and 12 on
8:12
the year. They just took two or three
8:13
against the Guardians. Couldn't get the sweep though.
8:16
They lost that series finale 3 to 1 as a -1 O 5 road dog.
8:20
So pitching match up for tonight.
8:21
We got a couple lefties on the bump.
8:23
Robbie Ray is going for the G men.
8:25
He's two and three with a 2.7 OERA raised.
8:28
Meanwhile going with the lefty Shane Mcclanahan 2 and two 3.91
8:33
ERA. So.
8:34
What do you see across the market here?
8:36
This game open Tampa around a -, 130 home favorite San Fran
8:40
around a + 110 row dog and all movement liability has been on
8:44
the race. The signs moving toward Tampa at
8:45
home guys, they went from -30 -, 130 up to -145.
8:51
They got a good bet split at circa 67% bets, 88% of money
8:56
line dollars, so good low bets, higher dollar split out in Vegas
9:00
from from the pros. The wise guys in favor of the
9:02
Rays also have some good run line support.
9:05
Tampa Bay run line -1 and F + 150 again to win by two or more.
9:09
47% bets, but 79% dollars at DraftKings.
9:13
So a good split on the run line again.
9:16
I just went money line. I got -139 with the raise at
9:20
Valley Bet Now Friday, home favorites -150 or less.
9:24
Didn't make the playoffs the previous year.
9:26
So you're like, hey, you know, yes, they're at home.
9:28
Yes, their favorite, but they didn't make the playoffs.
9:30
So should I really back them? Well, actually kind of buying
9:32
low on this on those teams has been a smart play.
9:35
They are 54 and 30 to 63% with an 11% ROI since 2025.
9:41
Now, Tampa has correlated betting value as a favorite low
9:43
total. So total on this one is 7 1/2.
9:46
Again, fair amount of expected run scored more likely to come
9:48
from quote UN quote that better team.
9:50
And Tampa has that interleague favorite value.
9:53
Once again, lack of familiarity benefiting that better team.
9:56
Tampa's bats have been better, knock on wood, but they have a
9:59
327 on base percentage. They scored 137 runs.
10:03
San Fran has a only 293 on base percentage, 100 and four runs
10:07
scored. And we talked a second ago about
10:09
the rest. First, tired in favor of the
10:11
Cubs over the D backs. But even more so, rest first
10:14
tired for the Rays over the Giants because the Rays were off
10:19
yesterday. But the Giants, not only did
10:21
they play yesterday, but they played a doubleheader yesterday.
10:23
So they're playing their third game in 2 days and they have to
10:26
travel. And again, Philly down to
10:28
Florida, you know, a little bit more of a journey from what is
10:31
it, Milwaukee to Chicago, what you just talked about for the D
10:34
backs. But again, that rested home
10:37
favorite coming off a day off at least $0.05 of line movement in
10:40
your favor, 66% five percent ROI since 2025.
10:45
Tampa 8:00 and 4:00 at home. San Fran 6:00 and 9:00 on the
10:48
road. Doesn't hurt that we have a 50%
10:51
five O big 50% sharp mush edge on the Rays from our friends at
10:56
Juice Reel. And I also have a green star
10:58
recommended smart signal play from Rhythm on Tampa Bay.
11:02
So again, short line, but a big move here toward Tampa.
11:06
Really good rest for his tired split.
11:08
I took the rays -139 at Ballybet last bed.
11:12
Of the night. Again, who likes staying up late
11:14
sweating the the dads with me? Well, hopefully you will tonight
11:18
because I'm looking at the Padres 9:40 PM Eastern Time
11:21
hosting the Chicago White Sox. Now white.
11:24
Sox give them credit. They're better than they have
11:27
been in many years. My buddy Darusha, I know he's
11:28
happy about that. But the White Sox, 14 and 17
11:32
just swept the Angels won that series finale 3 to 2 in extra
11:35
innings as a -1 O 5 home dog. Meanwhile, the pods 19 and 11 on
11:39
the year just dropped two or three against the Cubs.
11:41
We just talked about lost that series finale 5 to 4 as a -115
11:46
home favorite. So for tonight's interleague
11:48
series opener, the White Sox are going with the lefty Noah
11:51
Schultz. He's one and one with a 3.52,
11:54
uh, a pods. Meanwhile, going with the ready
11:56
Herman Marquez. He is 3 and one with a 4.38 earn
12:00
run average now. What do we see across the
12:02
market? Will this game open San Diego
12:04
around a -. 135 home favorite Chicago around a + 115 road dog.
12:09
And if you like the Cubs, you like Tampa.
12:12
I think you like the Padres because it's another home team
12:14
with a sharp line move. We've seen the pods go up from
12:17
-135 up to -145 I'm seeing some shops creep above -150 good bet
12:23
split here, in particular on the run line.
12:25
So if you do like pods, swim by two or more -1 1/2 + 145.
12:30
San Diego is taking in only 59% of spread bets, but 80% of
12:35
spread dollars at Circa. So it tells us a lot of money at
12:37
Circa is going with the run line.
12:39
Again, I went money line here. I got pods -145 at Bet MGM, but
12:44
San Diego would have that interleague favorite value, lack
12:47
of familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
12:49
They'd also have that favorite low total correlative betting
12:52
value because the total is 1 is 8.
12:54
There were some 8 and a halfs, but there's a lot of eights.
12:56
So if it's an 8, that would be favorite low total system match
12:59
here. Now it's not a rest versus
13:01
tired. Both teams were off yesterday,
13:03
so that that makes it even. But when both teams are coming
13:05
off the day off, take the home favorite.
13:07
It's very simple system, but it's 122 and 6964 percent, 4%
13:12
ROI since 2025. Marquez, remember, he was with
13:16
Colorado forever and just poor guy at the rear at the rarefied
13:20
air, the altitude. You never, never want to be a
13:22
pitcher in Coors Field. But ever since he came to San
13:25
Diego, he hasn't been bad. They're four and O San Diego
13:28
Padres are in Marquez's last four starts and the pods are one
13:32
of the better home teams in baseball. 10 and six at home.
13:34
White Sox 7:00 and 9:00 on the road.
13:37
So line move toward the pods. Good bet a bet split interleague
13:40
favorite correlative betting both off a day off, take the
13:43
favorite. Hopefully Marquez can go 5 and O
13:46
his last five starts. And also by the way, I popped
13:49
open Rhythm and noticed all three of my rhythm
13:53
recommendations lighting up on San Diego, so I'm backing the
13:57
pods here -140. 5 S Cubs. Raise and pods, see if we can
14:01
get 2 out of 3 and finish off the week on a hot note.
14:05
So that about does it for episode 5 O four of the all.
14:07
Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
14:11
This is the part of the pod where.
14:11
We wrap things up and I always start first by saying thank you.
14:15
Thank you for listening, thank you for tuning in, thank you for
14:17
grinding in the arena with me every single day through the UPS
14:21
and the downs, the good and the bad, the great wins, the
14:23
heartbreaking losses. Just like in life, there's good
14:26
days and bad days, but we try to go with with a data-driven
14:29
approach, betting with our head and not our heart.
14:32
And I also want to say, as always, thank you for just
14:34
listening and supporting the pod.
14:36
But if you do enjoy the pod, you find the the breakdowns to be
14:39
informative. Maybe you want to help me grow
14:43
this podcast, which would be awesome.
14:44
I'd love for you to give this pod a five star review on
14:48
Spotify or iTunes. If you want to leave a nice
14:50
comment under rate and review, click the follow button, retweet
14:53
the pod when I put it out on Twitter at Josh under score
14:56
Insights or recommend the pod to a friend.
14:58
Any or all of those things will be very much appreciated.
15:01
Next, if you enjoy the. Style of sports.
15:03
Betting data-driven Sharp contrarian betting focusing on
15:06
line moves, bet split system matches.
15:08
Again making sharp data-driven bets with our head and not our
15:11
heart. Taking a contrarian approach,
15:13
focusing on the AI back models and predictions.
15:15
If this style of betting has appealed to you, you want to
15:18
learn more about data-driven. Betting or maybe have.
15:20
Someone in your life who could use some data-driven tips.
15:23
I know Mother Days, Mother's Day is coming up.
15:24
Then you got Father's Day and again, a lot of a lot of, you
15:28
know, people's birthdays got to keep an eye out for, you know,
15:30
you should do an easy gift. Something that hopefully will
15:33
make them money is go to Amazon.com and type in either
15:36
the NFL Sharp Betting playbook or the Everything Guide to
15:39
Sports betting. The two books that I've written,
15:41
very proud of both. But if you want to grab one or
15:43
both of them, bring the sports book.
15:45
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
15:47
ale. And you know what, it's my
15:48
birthday. We'll take a couple shots.
15:50
What do you think? Hopefully get some winners here
15:51
tonight. Next, if you haven't done it
15:55
yet, you should go download rhythm and juice reel, my two
15:57
favorite sports betting apps to help me win.
15:59
They're going to help you win. So rhythm great for their AI
16:02
backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
16:05
Juice reel so many great features.
16:07
You can sync up your sports books, get a running report card
16:09
of your action, keep yourself honest, see which sports and bet
16:13
types your best at understand your strengths and weaknesses,
16:16
track your closing line value. But then also you can get the
16:19
robo Jackson AI driven best bet picks, which are two plays that
16:22
come out each day at noon. You can get the all the all
16:26
systems go best bet picks for $4.99 a week.
16:29
I consider that a tip jar because the pot is free.
16:32
So you can get those plays again for 5 bucks a week, less than a
16:35
dollar a day and you're supporting the team.
16:38
You can also get the sharp mush indicators, arbitrage plays.
16:41
Shop for the best line futures all available when you download
16:44
juice reel. So download rhythm, download
16:46
juice reel. Give them both a five star
16:48
review and the App Store. Next you have a live odds page.
16:51
Well if you don't have one, you need one.
16:53
You got to be able to track the market in real time.
16:55
Got to identify line movement. What did the line open at?
16:59
Where is it currently? Compare the opening opening
17:01
column that never changes to the current odds.
17:03
Shop for the best line. Identify one of teams getting
17:06
steamed. It gets lit up in red.
17:07
Pull up the line history. Get a live in game wagering
17:10
opportunity. You can do it all with odds
17:13
logic. So I would highly recommend
17:15
giving odds logic a shot. I use them every day.
17:17
They're the best live odds page around.
17:20
All you got to do is go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
17:25
That's going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off your
17:28
first month of service. So that about does it for
17:31
episode 5 O 4. Of the ASG pod on a big.
17:34
Friday as always, guys. Two final thoughts.
17:36
One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
17:40
River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
17:42
Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut, at the Encore in
17:46
Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM, Springfield, or the
17:49
Nash in my neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts and
17:52
New HAMP and Nashua, NH. We're out in the desert where
17:55
the true grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
17:57
number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
18:00
South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
18:02
plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool.
18:04
When you cash a big ticket at Circa, you're going to walk up
18:07
to me. Show me a nice Phillies ticket,
18:09
a nice Knicks, Hawks over first ones on me, next ones on you.
18:13
We'll post about the book. Sweatshare Contrarian lays all
18:15
night long. O as always guys coming off A.
18:18
Two and two or a four and oh an OH and four.
18:21
A3 and 1A1 and 3A winning night. A losing night, A hot streak, a
18:24
cold streak, we just can never get too high when things are
18:27
going good, never get too low and things aren't going our way.
18:29
We just got to stick to the model, stick to the blueprint,
18:32
fearless but disciplined, stay true to our bankroll management
18:36
and play the system matches the games that are against the
18:38
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bat, avoid parlays
18:42
and get that CLV. If we can do that, we're going
18:45
to be successful sports bettors. So everyone has a fantastic
18:48
Friday. Hope everyone has a great
18:51
weekend as well and then we'll be right back at it on Monday.
18:54
That'll be episode 5 O five of the All systems go sports
18:57
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
19:01
Good luck everybody. And by the way, let's go Bruins
19:05
win the damn game. Don't let me down.
19:07
I'm nervous, but who knows, maybe they'll surprise me.
19:10
Knock on wood, I want to Game 7. Let's go Bees, but good luck
19:13
everybody have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
19:16
I'll see you on Monday. Good luck.