Latest / Run After Cast: The College Football Podcast / College Football Week 5 Predictions | What Are The Odds?
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- Aaron: on it. We're hosted. You do. Chandler: Got it. I got this guys. I'm gonna do it. First try. Aaron: I added a marker in for you, so you're ready. Chandler: Welcome back to Run After Cast, the College Football Podcast. I'm your Wednesday host, Chandler, along with Ryan. Ryan: What's up guys? Chandler: And Aaron. Aaron: Hail State. Ryan: Ooh. Chandler: And we're back with another Thursday prediction and pick'em show for you guys. So just as a quick refresher, we're gonna run through all of the different games that we're gonna be covering this week. We're gonna have these boys guess the lines and the over unders. I'm gonna tell them what the correct lines and over unders were, and then we're gonna all go through our score prediction. And just to kick things off, we're gonna get right into it, right into the the game of the weekend. Alabama versus Mississippi State. Aaron, start us off. Aaron: I agree. I think this is a game of the weekend. Like if you're not tuning in for this, A, it's embarrassingly sad that this is a big noon kickoff time for an SEC square off here. there's a lot of games Chandler: Enjoy it. Fun. Aaron: that shouldn't be in the primetime slot, and this one should. So let me go ahead and just hop into numbers here. I have the line 4.5 Alabama's favor with the over-under of 60.5. Ryan: I have Alabama favored by six, but same over under sixty point five. Chandler: Alabama is favored by six and the overunder Aaron: Mm-hmm. Chandler: is fifty nine and a half. So y'all are right there. All right, Aaron. Aaron: So now, this game, I think this will be electric, and I I think this will be a close game. I think Alabama has a lot of strength coming into this game right now. I think Geelon Russell is finding his groove, and my hope is that we disrupt that. I would be very excited to see what Zach Arnett does here because he is so creative with changing up defensive schemes. A lot of creative scheming. I think if he gets the right combination of schemes to throw at Russell, it may dislodge him a little bit. And I think Bothwell has been running the ball really well for Mississippi State. We have seen Alabama struggle to stop the run early game. So I if Levy is doing a really good job, he'll have both Bothwell covering the early yardage for the first half. And then lean back on Camario's arm whenever they fall asleep. So I think despite all that, Alabama has a good shot of winning this game. But I'm a Mississippi State fan, so I'm giving it to Mississippi State 34-31, close game at the end, but stay takes it. Ryan: Okay, that's really fair. yeah, I think Alabama's a pretty physical team. I think they actually have a pretty good O line in running backs, but the biggest question is like their run game. But I've heard arguments that they think that's the problem, but I really think it's grub. I think that we saw during the Kentucky game that they ran plays with a lot more eye candy, they started putting guys in motion, they started running the ball to the outside and some jet sweeps, and they were just faster and more physical than the other team. So they've kinda proved they could do it. In Mississippi State Has one of the best quarterbacks in the country right now, and he has the most natural arm talent I have ever seen. The issue is no matter how slow Alabama starts, they always seem to score like 50 points this year, and they're scoring a bunch of points. I think Mississippi State's look good on defense, but their offense is the thing that has shined for them. And I don't think Missouri was even really that good. And they probably shouldn't have been ranked. They are just in their honorary 25 spot. So Camario's gonna be a little more tested this week. I'm thinking it might be a little wake up call. So they're gonna finally have to play a real team. And I think that's gonna take a small adjustment period. So I think they're gonna come out slower than Alabama, and I think Alabama's just gonna outscore them. So give me Alabama forty eight to thirty four. So sorry. Aaron: Hey, fair enough. Hey, if Alabama comes out really strong in the beginning, I could see us falling behind. It doesn't seem like we really want to play from behind this year. Seems to be a weak position for us. So I think whichever team scores more in the first quarter wins this game. Ryan: Like I haven't seen someone who looked like they can stop you yet. But Missouri was close. Aaron: Yeah. But Alabama's definitely definitely more capable of the task. Chandler: I got Alabama taking this thing too. Thirty-seven twenty four, double digit win, just like Teal. I mean, I like Mario and I like those cowbells. But Aaron: Well, in the name of Camario, I forgive your football sins here, both of you. Ryan: And I hate Alabama. Like I hope they lose, but Chandler: I just you know yeah, I can't see it happening. Aaron: Hey, I Ryan: Just a gut. Aaron: I think it's fair. I I I one hundred percent I see this as a close game. I like this game. I'm so excited for this because I didn't think I would be excited for this game by this point in the season. So Chandler: Yeah, fair. Aaron: let's see it. Let's see a great game between two really good quarterbacks right now. Chandler: Okay, next we are going to Florida versus Missouri. Ryan, what you got Ryan: Okay. I Chandler: this this line being? Ryan: I think Florida's gonna be favored by seven and I think the overunder is gonna be fifty-seven and a half. Aaron: I see this favored towards Florida seven point five with fifty six and a half is the over under. Chandler: Florida is favored by five and a half, and the overunder Aaron: Really? Chandler: is fifty seven and a half. Ryan: See, I like the overunder. I like the overunder. Aaron: They have that pretty close. Ryan: I think this is gonna be a high scoring game. I think the spread's too close. I mean, I just talked about Missouri. They've proved nothing to me. I don't even think they should be ranked. They beat Kansas, whoop-de-doo, and I had high hopes for them this year. But I think the real question was Florida's defense. Where against Ole Miss, they actually proved they are pretty good and they are pretty physical. So they've done it. And they have one of the most electric offenses in the country. So I actually think Florida should be ranked even higher than they are. And I think their offense literally cannot be stopped. And I don't think Missouri is that great. They've sputtered. Austin Simmons hasn't looked awesome. So give me Florida fifty two to twenty four. Aaron: I agree with you here. I do see this as a little bit of a low-scoring game. I I would have the under on this, I think, if my math skills are right, but they're probably not because I'm dumb. But I just I don't know why they have this so close. We just watched Missouri at Mississippi. Jaden Ball's another level of running and I think Florida is more than capable of handling the war of attrition against Missouri here. I think Missouri just runs out of gas defensively. We saw them rally back, but then we saw a very sad final drive out of Missouri in that Mississippi State game. So I think this comes down to defenses. I think Florida does come out with a bit of a slower start as they wear down that line, scoring twenty eight two seventeen. Florida takes it over Missouri. Ryan: Yeah, and not even Ball. I mean Deuce Clark 2 proves that he can run for a hundred yards a game against a normal team. Aaron: yeah. Ryan: I think their offensive system under Baul Buster Faulkner is actually just really good. Aaron: Yeah, yeah, with a dynamic duo of running backs to carry it. Ryan: Yeah, that you can just place another guy in and he just produces just as much. Like I don't I just Aaron: And Philo has shown arm talent enough to back that up, to Ryan: Mm-hmm. Aaron: make the threat downfield, to have to keep some of the defensive Ryan: Yeah. Aaron: assets back. Ryan: Yeah. They have they have shocked me this year. Chandler: This is my put a lid on it game. I'm bringing it out early. Aaron: Ha ha ha. Chandler: And I agree. I think Florida is their offense is fun to watch. Run the ball. That's all you gotta do. The key to the game. It's all you have to do. Aaron: That's it. Chandler: Just Kitchen McCarthy style. Alright. So Ryan: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Chandler: 41 24. Put a lid on it. Florida wins. Aaron: Ooh. Chandler: Handily. Handedly. Hand hand Aaron: I could see it. Ryan: Yeah. Yeah. Chandler: Han and their Lee. Hans Aaron: Handed handedly. Chandler: with Lee. They win this game. Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: Alright, no more comments there. So next we are moving Aaron: Ha ha ha. Chandler: to Kentucky versus South Carolina. The battle of a team playing on Saturday. Aaron: Yeah. Yeah. The bat the battle of a football game. Ryan: Mm-hmm. Aaron: I feel like Vegas has this as a neutral game. So it's going to go home field advantage, give me three point five South Carolina's direction and over under of a fifty-two point five a defensive game. Ryan: Okay, I know that they picked South Carolina, but I'm gonna go Kentucky here anyway, minus four, fifty three and a half. Chandler: It is a fifty three and a half. But it is South Carolina's Aaron: Woo. Chandler: way at two and a half. Ryan: Mm. Mm. Wow. I can't believe it's that close. Aaron: Two and a half. I I'm shocked. I don't agree with that. I think South Carolina, as much as I've talked about liking the program, as much as I enjoy South Carolina and South Carolina fans, y'all are in a spiral right now. Things just aren't going well. Stewart's not in the game. So there goes the defensive pressure y'all had. that was an exciting bit of drama to watch last week. Chandler: Yeah. Aaron: And yeah, a real, a real punch in the mouth with a helmet on. And Ryan: Larry. Aaron: so I just don't see I still see offensively South Carolina still being there. Lenore Sellers shouldn't be underestimated. Seen it come together. But Kentucky's Kentucky's look pretty good. Like I they're solid enough that I think Kentucky takes us thirty one twenty four. Ryan: Yeah, even if Kentucky was favored here, I would still say Kentucky would cover. Will? Yes. Will Stein. I like him a lot. I think he's really flipped their program. I think they played competitive teams like Alabama and Texas St. and they've shown that they can produce offense and even win games, especially when they don't turn the ball over. Their defense also hasn't really looked that bad. And I think the South Carolina's defense, yes, will be worse without Dylan Stuart. But I think their offense hasn't even looked good. Lenoris hasn't really done it for me this year. And I'm sad about that 'cause I love Lenoris. But I think gimme Kentucky here, forty five to twenty seven. Chandler: I have this beat a little tighter, but I do have Kentucky winning. I Ryan: Don't hate it. Mm-hmm. Chandler: think it's gonna be twenty-seven to twenty-four Kentucky's way. Ryan: I like it. Aaron: I can see it. Ryan: I could see it happening. I I do think Kentucky wins this game then. Chandler: Now we go to the robbed game day of the weekend. And Aaron: the real big noon kickoff of the game. Ryan: It should be Mississippi State, Alabama, realistically, at night. Chandler: I I do agree. I think I think it if if Mississippi State and Alabama was a night game, it would game day would be there. But I think they had to have had that time slot already picked out or at least somewhat Ryan: Yeah. Chandler: picked out and that's why. So and you can't, you know, Aaron: Yeah. But Ryan: Yeah, same. Chandler: have consecutive big noon or SEC game days, you know, back to back to back. You gotta throw a bone every once in a while, you Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: know? Ryan: L lot of good games. What do you do about it? Aaron: Hey, game day can go to Iowa any day. I think this is gonna be a fun game day. Tune in for it. We'll see if I'm right. As a Mississippi State fan, I don't feel robbed. I think we're gonna have opportunities coming up. I think you know, if we have we have some games where I I think we could have game day, but I wanna see Iowa get it. I I wanna see Iowa fans going wild. Chandler: You want to get CI will get what? Ryan: Get into it. Like Like get into it. Aaron: A loss for their season record. Chandler: Not a win. Aaron: but Chandler: Mm-hmm. Aaron: wait, you're Europe. Yeah. Ryan: Turbo Tax, we get sponsored by them. Wait, you said what? Aaron: Your your your first player here. Chandler: Yeah, I didn't ever say the game either. We just rolled right into the head. So the game is Ohio Aaron: yeah, yeah, yeah. We started rolling. Go for it. Set us up. Post. Chandler: State versus Iowa. Brian, take us away. True. Ryan: Me. okay. Sorry, Aaron went so much I thought it was him. Ohio State sixteen and a half and forty eight and a half over under. Aaron: We're thinking similar here 'cause I got Ohio State fourteen and a half with forty seven point five. We both see this as a low scoring defensive game. Ryan: Mm-hmm. Well, for one team. Aaron: W well, if you combine the points together neutrally, the low scoring game. Chandler: The over or the line actually has been moving up slightly. It's 14 and a half now. This morning it was a fourteen, and I think it got as low as thirteen and a half. So now it's kind of a whole point. So it's Ohio State 14.5 and the over-under is 45 and a half. Ryan: Yeah, really low. I mean let's be honest. Ohio State's dominant. Iowa's a scrappy team, and their defense is really pretty good. And I'll give them credit. Team of North has a really great defense, and even though it came down to the wire, they did pull it off against them, but they did kind of struggle all game on offense. It was a low scoring game. But I think Ohio State just has such a great team. If they fix whatever was going on when Kenyatta said that they weren't gap sound, they were trying to play hero ball, they just need to humble themselves a little. They need to keep their gap integrity and they'll be able to fix all the issues with these huge explosive runs against them. And I don't even think we have to talk about the offense. They have weapons everywhere, and none of them even matter because they're all outsined by Jeremiah Smith. So I think this soundly goes to Ohio State forty two to thirteen. Aaron: So I think when it comes to Iowa, they can be a trap game. They can be scrappy. They play with everything they got. As I said last week. Never pretty. It's ugly football. But it shows up. Not always consistently. Not all the time. So I have this final score being twenty eight, fourteen, but it's going Ohio State's direction. Iowa's gonna show up. They're gonna play ball. They're gonna it's gonna be a great game. I think we're gonna see them get some. Lucky strikes against Ohio State. I think there'll be a couple things that they're not prepared for. I think it's a good game for Ohio State to have at this point in the season to get tested from a defense that can play a little ugly but still pull things off. So yeah, twenty-eight fourteen. Ryan: I don't hate it. I mean, I like Hank Brown though. He just like didn't get it done here. It's hard for me to imagine him doing against the best defense of the country. Maybe if Matt Patricia keeps playing this really loose zone, he might. I think if y'all run man coverage, should be good. Chandler: I have this being thirty-eight to sixteen. Ryan: Interesting. Aaron: I think I think that's a fair take. Chandler: A touchdown and three field goals. Ryan: Yeah, I I like Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: it. Chandler: I I just I know it's gonna be a defensive game. I Ohio State maybe like in the first quarter like mmm ten to three and then going into halftime, get a little separation and then second half just closes it. But I can't see it being close really at all. Ryan: Mm-mm. Aaron: Yeah, I I still see it as a double digit win Chandler: Yeah. Aaron: and at like at minimum. And I do think I will will come away with a defensive touchdown though. That's that's why I have him at 14. I think we get a lucky touchdown that they have something that just sneaks through and I think they get a defensive touchdown. Chandler: Aaron, I will on camera. A punishment of your choice that's not that crazy Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: or a affects my look because I have to go, you know, work without a hat on. Aaron: To work. Yeah. Chandler: whatever you want if they forty if it's a touchdown. Ryan: Let's either do the Lego one or an eating challenge. How about that? Chandler: Whatever you want. Aaron: I will I'll be thinking about this all week. Can't wait for Saturday. Yep. Ryan: You only gotta wait two days or something. Chandler: Okay. Okay. Now we go over to Auburn and Tennessee. Aaron, let Ryan ponder for a minute. What you got? Aaron: Yeah. Well, let's stay with Vegas. Vegas is impersonal. It's not me saying this. It's Vegas. This is gonna be a seven point five Tennessee favored game with an over-under of fifty point five. They see it as a bog standard score with just a touchdown advantage. Ryan: Yeah, I think they're gonna favor Tennessee by a touchdown and fifty two and a half. Chandler: Tennessee by seven and the over-under at fifty-four and a half. And kinda think Aaron: And Okafort. Chandler: that line's generous. Ryan: I fear that as well. And Aaron, let's hear why. Aaron: Generous. Tour two. Well, Auburn fans. Time. Chandler: Close your ears. Aaron: Don't close your ears. Open them. Listen. Listen real close for a minute. Things aren't going your way this season. Not looking good. Offense isn't really showing a lot to write home about. Defense under Durkin. Chandler: Except what was pointed out to us in the comments from the Gators. They their offense was really good against Florida. Aaron: They they Ryan: No. Aaron: put some points up, but not enough. You have to watch these games. If you watch these games, you'll see that there's not much to see. So there's always next year. And there's always next game, because this game's going to Tennessee. I I I didn't see a lot from Tennessee's anemic offense last week. It's twenty four seventeen Tennessee. Ryan: Apparently it's gonna rain all day, and it's at Tennessee. And that's especially bad for us because we can't run the ball. FaZe and Brandon got sacked ten times against Texas. And I don't think we can really do that against Texas. We actually do get a lot of pressure sometimes. We'll get Xavier Atkins back there, but we almost get so much pressure that we'll overcommit and end up high in the quarterback or not make a tackle. And Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: we're gonna have to control a good running in they have Deshaun Bishop. And I think if you don't pressure a young guy like like FaZian Brandon, which is why Texas did so good about him, that he'll be able to make plays. And he couldn't because he was all frantic and scared. But there are a lot of box score enjoyers saying that we actually produce a lot of offense. And if you're watching this, which you are, if you're hearing this, then this is you. And you are a certified box score enjoyer, if you believe this. And statistically, we have scored a lot of points and produced a lot of yards. But if you actually watch the game, we don't really have much going for us at all. And it all comes down to Byron Brown. If you look at South Florida last year, their running backs averaged 25 carries a game. But here at Auburn, we only average 18 carries a game from our running backs. And this is heavily skewed because in the Southern Miss game, we handed the ball 37 times. So the real three games that we've actually played, it's been 18, 12, and 18. And even though Byron Brown had most of the majority of the attempts at South Florida, which he still does here, it's super skewed because this also accounts for sacks and things like that. He doesn't really run the ball here as much as he did at South Florida. And we don't hand the ball to the running backs. And Alex Golish's whole thing is how he's gonna run the piss out of the ball. So Alex Gulish came out and publicly said that he needs Byron Brown to run the ball in order to be effective. But he is scared. That he is going to hurt Byron Brown. So he said he's only really gonna run when we really need to. But we need to every game because at some point we're gonna lose because you're not running the ball with Byron Brown. The only reason these spread offenses work, which is what we run, is if you're able to run the ball. They're not even stacking the box. They're putting six in the box. We only have one run play that we only run a draw. But if you get Byron going, you run a QB power with Byron Brown, you run a read option with Byron Brown, you run outside runs with the running back. It really switches up and it opens the run game because the whole point is these middle parts of the field, it spreads them out to create more vulnerabilities in the pass game. But if you're not even loading the box, which is what this is trying to force you to do, you're not putting your receivers in favorable matchups that sometimes they'll be one-on-one in man, but you really want them to run zone coverage out of this. Because if you're in man and you have a guy over top, you can't run these in-releasing routes, which are good in man coverage, and you can't run the ball. So we need Byron Brown to get incorporated in the run game. And he just says, like, he's not gonna do it. If you watch Mississippi State, they're able to run the ball. They run a similar thing like this. And then finally, you get a good matchup, you run a bunch of short routes, you run the ball with Fluff Bothwell a few times for five or eight yards, and then you chuck a 50 yard bomb downfield. And that's what we need to be able to do. So we really the silver lining we've joked about is that we could actually be really good. But us not running the ball with Byron Brown just completely shuts down our whole offensive scheme and we have zero offense. So because of this, I don't think we're gonna be able to score enough points. we've been holding people to less points, but I still think Tennessee has a good offense. I think we're gonna lose twenty seven to seventeen. Aaron: I I could see it. It is our longest number prediction for a game so far. So it's Chandler: Is it me? Aaron: pure passion there, folks. Yep, you're up. Chandler: Twenty seven, twenty-four, Tennessee takes it. Aaron: you have it real close. You're following Heighter than Vegas there. Chandler: I do I think it is gonna be tighter. I think DJ Durkin's gonna have them a little more tightened up, but I just think like Ryan said, they have a lot of explosiveness on that offense and they're bound to, you know, hit a little bit more than than the than the average there. So Aaron: You know, I like that take because at the end of the season when Tennessee's eight and four and Auburn six and six, you know, that three points does feel like a gap between the two scores there. Ryan: Yeah, and I think I think Tennessee is overhyped, but they are still a good football team. And we're gonna have to prove it this week. Aaron: One of the best eight and fourteens in the SEC. Chandler: Now speaking of n the opposite of overhyped, we go to Virginia and Florida State. Aaron: a one Ryan: Is it me? Aaron: underhyped team and one very rationally Ryan: One bad? Aaron: hyped. Yeah. Bottom of the barrel. Ryan: I think they're gonna have the line Virginia seven and fifty four and a half over under. Aaron: Whew, a low, low score in game there. I agree that they're gonna give Virginia a touchdown, but for the home field advantage for Florida, I see it as a three point five Virginia's favor. Ryan: Okay. Aaron: And I got the over under fifty-three point three or fifty-three point five. Chandler: Point three, got it. Okay, so Aaron: Point three. Chandler: Virginia is favored by two and a half and the overunder is fifty Aaron: Woo. Chandler: one and a half. Ryan: I didn't really hate it. I could see this being a close game. But I thought Aaron: I can't. Ryan: Virginia just started so hot. And I really liked them. And they looked like amazing against NC State, but they turned out to be just like really terrible. But Florida State doesn't have the best defense. Aaron: Yeah. The Clemson effect. Ryan: Yeah, and Florida State doesn't have the best defense. They've allowed a lot of yards and a lot of points this year. But I think Virginia's offense has looked good, especially against Easy State, and I think they're gonna look good again. FSU has a pretty mediocre all around team. They run the ball well because they do it a lot, but they just don't look consistent to me. I think Virginia's gonna kind of tear it up. And I'm gonna give Virginia thirty-eight twenty-seven, so a double digit win. Aaron: Fair. I also have a double digit win for Virginia. I'm not gonna bet on Florida State at any point until Ryan: Mm mm. Aaron: that guy eats the dog poop. and then I'll start putting money down on him. But I have Virginia taking this twenty eight fourteen, Florida State, you're just in a bad place. It's just not Ryan: Mm-hmm. Aaron: looking good for you, and I don't think you're allowed to get wins. Ryan: I like it. I and I like Virginia. Like I kinda want them to be good. Yeah. Aaron: I do too. Yeah. Chandler: I have this at thirty to twenty-four and I have FSU winning this game. Ryan: Okay, dude. Aaron: Whoa, whoa. I think that's like a law. You're that's illegal. Chandler: Now here's my catch, the power has to be on. And if the power's on, Florida State wins the game. Aaron: Now what about water? If the water's off, what Ryan: Yeah. Aaron: other utility have they not paid for? Wi Fi is down. Chandler: Scoreboard's broken. Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: yeah, so Aaron: Fair enough. Hey, Florida State is capable of they just don't do it. Ryan: I I wouldn't mind it. Aaron: Yep. Ryan: And I don't really care. A C C Chandler: Okay, now Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: now we have one of Ryan's favorite Big Ten teams squaring off against USC. Washington versus USC. Take us away, somebody. Aaron: And so yeah, anyone. I USC still getting the hype. They got the Vegas hype. And so I think they're gonna give it to USC at a 10.5 favorite with the over under a 58.5. Ryan: I think USC by twelve and fifty six and a half. Chandler: USC is favored by nine and a half. And this the overunder is fifty eight and a half. Aaron: So that's where I start to split with Vegas here. I think USC showed an unraveling last week. That second half of that game, they were putting up, but we even taught. Oregon didn't look great in the first half. They haven't looked great in the first half of the season. We have USC just kind of keeping pace. We've seen them struggle. We've seen them stumble. Washington's one of those sneaky teams. Never count them out. And I think they're gonna come into USC. I think they're ready. I think they look composed right now. So I got Washington taking this twenty eight, twenty four. Ryan: Sierra and I think a similar thing about USC, but I have a slightly different reason. That I mean, I'm very disappointed in Washington. I thought they were my sleeper this year. At the beginning of this year, I thought they could sneak this game. I really liked them. They throw the six four corners last year, got rid of That might be part of the issue. And I love Damon Williams. But I don't think USC is really bad. I really like their offense. I think they'd be really explosive. And I've literally said they have the worst defense ever. And they did until last week. Where I don't even think they necessarily played that bad. They actually played pretty good. They only really lost that game because Dylan Riola came in. And he is about one thousand times better than Dante Moore. And him coming in had everything clicking, including their defense, which doesn't Chandler: There's the Dante More shot. Ryan: even make sense. They even played better somehow when he Aaron: Okay. Ryan: came out on offense. So USC wins this game if if Dante Moore stayed in. And I think they're really not bad. And I think they prove that their defense can actually be pretty good in Washington's kind of struggled this year, so give me USC forty two to twenty four. Chandler: I have this game at forty one to twenty one, USC takes it. Aaron: Wow. Ryan: I like it. Aaron: I'm gonna I'm gonna I'll I'll keep my faith in Washington here. I I I think they've got something ready to go. Ryan: I wish. Chandler: Okay. So now we have the most run heavy game that you will see all weekend, and that is a price lock guarantee. Ryan: The armor game? Chandler: Air Force versus Navy. Ryan? Where do you see this game going? Ryan: I think Air Force can be favored by three. I see it being tight. Forty-two and a half. Aaron: Ooh, I also see this tight that it is 3.5 Air Force's way, 45 and a half. Run games tend to be lower scoring. Chandler: Game here for us. Maybe The over under. Ryan: I think it's three or three and a half. Yeah. Aaron: You can just go with my guess. Ryan: Aaron did his formula. Aaron: I did. Chandler: The spread Aaron: Forces the heat. Chandler: is Air Force three and a half. And the over-under is forty-six and a half. Ryan: Ooh, a Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: little too high. for the outcome, I'm not really sure. I do like the idea of this game because I love our country and I love our military. But I don't really watch either Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: of these teams very much. I personally like the Air Force better. So I'm slightly biased. But there's some saying, and it's more of a chant, and it goes, do it like the army and shoot it, and do it like the navy and sink it. But they don't mention what the Air Force does. So I'll give them something and I'll assign to them that how about they just go ahead and they win? but they can sync stuff too, and the Navy can't fly, unfortunately. This is a pretty old school, they just run the ball. Army has a wing T football that you run in middle school and they run around a lot, and I think it's gonna Chandler: Not true. Ryan: be really sorry. Low scoring. So give me Air Force twenty seven seventeen. Dominate this game. Chandler: The n na Navy definitely has fighter pilots, but you know, that's like guess guess that's neither here nor there. Ryan: Yeah, but it's not it's not the same though. Aaron: Yeah, I was gonna say ap apologies for Ryan. We're literally next to one of the Ryan: No no no Aaron: most famous flying groups for our military, is like forty five minutes down the road as a Navy flight group. Yeah. Chandler: Yeah, they don't fly though. Ryan: I know they have it, but that's like their not that's not their main thing. And I'm not very aquatic as a person. Like get me out of the water. You know what I'm saying? So Aaron: So despite whatever Teal's talking about right now, I do like these armed forces games. I think they're always fun. There's there's an energy to them. And you know, Army Navy definitely one of the all-time rivalry games, but every one of these kind of has a little bit of a rivalry element to it. I grew up going to the Air Force games as a kid, they were cool. not enough for me to give Air Force a win here. Because I I do think there's a fun little stat to point out. Both these teams rushing yards average 33.3 point or 33 or shit. 333.7 yards per game. Both teams, exact same rushing average. So Ryan: Yeah. That's what they do. Aaron: that's the you're just running the ball. And Chandler: Three hundred and thirty-three. Aaron: 333.7 to the point both are equal. Chandler: What is their passing average? Ryan: Like a hundred? Aaron: Not the same, about 160. Chandler: No, not even that. Aaron: and hold on. Let me let me get you the profit stat. So so Air Force Chandler: There's no way it's a hundred and sixty. There's no way they're they're averaging four hundred and something yards of Aaron: is averaging 96.7 yards of passing, and Navy only 90.7. So Chandler: That's insane. Aaron: both. So these are like two very similar teams going head to head. The reason I'm giving Navy the win here is because defensively. Navy has shown a little bit more capable to stop the run where their defensive average is 65.7 yards per game, where Air Force is 129 yards per game. So I think that's a pretty substantial margin in two teams that are very equally matched up. So I'm going Navy takes this 2117. And I I think it's gonna be if you want to watch a run game this weekend, tune in. Ryan: Yeah, I like it. And I I think they almost use the pass as like an extension to the run. They like run the ball. I this is still football that's made to be played, you know what I'm saying? Aaron: Yeah. One of those a a lot of behind the line passing to your running back. Ryan: Yeah, and they run some elaborate kinda schemes like I've seen. I I like it. It's just they run the ball. Chandler: I mean, anybody that's not an Air Force or Navy fan just learns something watching this exact clip or episode that you're talking about with that run stat. Because that's something that's insane and the fact that both of them are well under a hundred yards per game in the air is ins is nuts. But it's what you expect. Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: I mean, I think this is gonna be, you know Seventeen fourteen. Like a real real tight one. Ryan: I like it. Aaron: Yeah, I I I like whatever the score ends up being. I think it's close. Yeah. Chandler: By three. Yeah. But I I have I have I have Air Force winning this game. You know why? Because they're favored. And that's it. That's all my reasoning is. Aaron: Bare, bare point. Bare point. Ryan: Yeah, yeah it's fair. Aaron: I I think this will be a sneaky little game of the week that a lot of people are gonna miss. So Chandler: but I will I do want to also point out that I did a little bit of research on this as well because I wanted to know what their team stats were. And Navy's passing leader and rushing leader are both the quarterback, but the catch is it's two separate quarterbacks. The passing leader is one quarterback, and their second quarterback is their rushing leader. So they have two separate quarterbacks running and passing for their team leads. And then Aaron: Mm-hmm. Chandler: On the opposite side, the main quarterback for Air Force is also their leading rusher. So three quarterbacks Aaron: Yes, yeah, Sorsky. Chandler: are the key players of this game. Aaron: Yep. Yep. Ryan: That's hilarious. You know, I hope they let the second guy throw it. That's how they're gonna win. They're gonna win on a trick play. Is he? Chandler: Second guy runs only because he's black. Yeah. You're gonna have to cut that though. Yes! And his name's Braxton. No, Ryan: Is he the Russian guy? okay, that's I thought you were saying he's the passer. I was like, really? Chandler: but maybe she cut that part. I don't Ryan: Cut you. Chandler: Okay. Yeah. It's gonna be a good game. Regardless, I mean it when you term when you term in, when you tune in to any of these armed forces games, they're always just dog fights. And I love it. Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: They're always close. There's never usually a blowout. I mean there are there has been their blowouts in the past, but especially the la the last game of the year, the Army Navy game, it's always a fun one to watch. Ryan: Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Chandler: Okay, we have two left. We're gonna go BYU versus TCU. We have two absolute great games running off with. Aaron: it's me. So I have this game of course go in BYU's favor, according to Vegas, at a seven point five, with the over under of a low scoring game of si forty six point five. Ryan: Yeah, I've I've BYU fourteen and fifty two and a half. Chandler: It is BYU. Aaron: I like these. There's every once in a while we get a s we get a gap between our guesses. Ryan: Mm. Chandler: BYU's six and a half and the overunder is forty-seven and a half. Aaron: Hmm. 47. So they they do agree it's a low scoring game. Now, I've ever seen Chandler: twenty eight twenty four BYU Aaron: That is not what I have. However, I do have Chandler: Mm-hmm. Aaron: BYU scoring 28 points. I have it 2817. TCU's been real stuttery all season. And I think I haven't really seen BYU get tested yet. I just don't think TCU's gonna be the tester. Ryan: I mean, this is such a mid-off. BYU has done nothing to prove to me that they should be ranked number 10. They might Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: like shouldn't even be ranked because they only beat Arizona. Whoop-de-doo, you beat Arizona. But TCU is just as bad. And they lost to the Disney World USCF team. And then they lost to UNC after they realized that all of they do is run outside zone, HP slip screens, and rip seams to cover three. So BYU. If you're watching this and if you heard me say this, you are watching this, you know their playbook now, so you should win. And BYU has Belatu Satala and he's six foot four. They have a great taste in D B's, and you you know my opinion on that. So give me them to win thirty two to seventeen. Chandler: 2824 BYA takes it. The last game we have is Miami Aaron: Ha ha ha ha. Chandler: versus Clemson. Aaron: Mm. Chandler: Miami's second Ryan: I think Chandler: Saturday game of the year. Ryan: This is not gonna be the line, but it should be. Miami thirty-two and a half over under seventy. Chandler: Okay. Aaron: Is this is this seventy? Chandler: Under seventy Ryan: I'm taking the over. Aaron: So I have it a little more reasonable here at a seventeen point five Miami advantage with a forty eight point five a forty eight point five over under. Chandler: Aaron, it is tighter than both of your numbers. Aaron: Really? That's Ryan: I can't believe that actually. Aaron: insane. Chandler: It is sixteen and a half Miami's way. And it is lost lost it, lost it. Forty seven and a half over under. Aaron: So Vegas knows this is Ryan: Okay. Aaron: Miami, Florida, right? Not Miami, Ohio. Like the Ryan: Yeah, yeah, yeah. If anyone's betting on this game, this is the game. Cover Miami to cover by a million. Aaron: Yes. Ryan: I just want to say congratulations to Clemson because you have my won my award this year for being the worst team of the big 26. The year 2026. But you get to play on a s Chandler: Do we make of a new conference? Ryan: no, no, no, no, no. I was trying to say year, and I knew you'd get confused by your whole big eighteen or whatever. So I had to clarify. So good for Miami. Because their streak of playing blind middle school games continues because they're playing Clemson. But you actually get to play on a Saturday this week instead of the primetime middle school Thursday slot. But Miami, I actually think they're really, really good. They do score a ton of points, and they're gonna do it again because that's just what they do. so give me Miami 70 to 10, because I think Dabo's gonna score one garbage time touchdown like he did against LSU. Where if I was Lane Kiffin. And he did that in the game, I would have put my starters back on the field and scored fifty three more points for disrespecting me. Aaron: You know, I'm shocked that this was not your 100 to zero. This felt like 100 to 0. Yep, 100 to Ryan: It is a hundred and nothing. Hundred nothing. Aaron: nothing. You might as well. 70 to 10 is 100 to nothing in any other any other place. I have as much faith in Clemson as I have in my hairline. Not gonna be around for postseason. So let's go ahead and say it's 42 10. Clemson er and the only reason it's forty two is that Miami starts pulling Tony and Mensa to save them for a real threat because Clemson is not it this year. Ryan: mean they did that against Fam U and they still scored like seventy five points. Their backups are just Aaron: Yeah. Ryan: fucking bombs. I think Mark Fletcher might be Chandler: I have this game Ryan: hurt though. That's not good. He needs to play. Chandler: I have Clemson covering this game. I have Miami winning 28 to 24. I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. I'm just ca- I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. I'm just Ryan: Damn, I'm sorry? Okay, I was about to say that is the worst thing I've ever heard you say. Like Aaron: Okay, so so you know this is Miami, Florida, not Ohio, right? I if it was Miami, Ohio, I'd say fair. Fair Yeah. Chandler: I'm just kidding. No, I have I have Miami winning this game. I do I d I don't think they're gonna score like in the fifties or sixties like they usually do, just because this defense is gonna have more of a pulse Ryan: Clemson is that bad. Chandler: than than Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: more defenses they played. So maybe give me like forty five to sixteen. Ryan: I like it. 'Cause yeah, Miami ha yeah, Miami isn't tested, but Aaron: Sixteen. Wow, where's Clemson getting this much better for? Ryan: like Clemson's not much of a test. Aaron: Yeah. Clemson's open book. Ryan: Feels like a like a participation assignment, like instead of a test. Chandler: Yes. Aaron: Yeah. Respond to your blackboard comments. Chandler: With with a hundred characters or more. Ryan: Yeah. Aaron: Yeah. Chandler: Okay, well, that wraps up our week five prediction and pick'em episode. We've had a blast recording these. We look forward to every week. We've had great engagement. We've had great feedback on the episode format. So we thank you as always. We're gonna be blasting out our clips like we usually do on Thursday and Friday. So wherever you get your social media, be sure to check those clips out and Jot down your score predictions in the comments for all of those clips that you see. Aaron: Yeah. Like your northwestern Penn State Northwestern Penn State predictions where Northwestern wins this week. Ryan: Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. I think so. Chandler: But Ryan: Indian is really good. Aaron: They are. Chandler: We appreciate you guys as always. And be sure to leave us a review on wherever you get your podcast. It helps us a lot. It helps the channel grow. It helps us get out there more. And we appreciate it. So, as always, thank you. We'll see you on our Monday episode. Have a great weekend. Enjoy your games. And Ryan: Bye bye.