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Transcript

Valero Texas Open PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:03
  Speaker 1: All systems going clear, the Lift Up?
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: What's up? Ember one? Taler Tamboline here aka Totagging Tambo
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: back for another edition of Leverage Lane. Here on the
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: ship at Nation YouTube station, where we'll never leave you hanging.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: No such thing as Deactivation Nation, but we got a
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: ton to talk about. It was a wild week in
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: the world the DFS last week. Got Alex Blickle here
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: with me as always, gonna break down all things Valero
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Texas Open. Quick recap from last week. Not too long,
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: but we do have some weather to talk about. We
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: got the Masters coming up week, so some big conversation
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: just leading into that. And if you are playing MLBDFS
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: right now, I know there's other shows, including our own
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: going on. I mean, this show is meant to be
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: watched back. You don't have to be here live with us.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you, I want You're not kicking you out.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying, if you really are focused on mlbdfs
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: right now, the slate starts on like an hour and
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: forty five minutes, so you can always watch this back.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: But Alex, I'll bring you in, my friend. We got
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: a fun week ahead here. I like this tournament quite
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: a bit. I remember. I think it was one year
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Kevin Chappell might have just crushed my dreams at the
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: end of this one. But it's a fun tournament. I
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: have some fond memories of this one. How you doing,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: my friend, what's going on this week?
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah? I love this tournament. And you mentioned MLBDFS. I'll
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: be doing some ownership projections while we're live, but we'll
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: make it work. And the last thing about MLB that's
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: worth pointing out is they actually have some master satellites
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: in the lobby today, so even if you're not a
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: regular MLB DFS player, some extra incentive to go check
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: that out today. And yeah, I absolutely love this tournament.
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: Had a lot of success in Showdown last year, really
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: just kind of attacking some win specialists. Looks like we're
• 1:58
  Speaker 3: gonna have some really windy condition again this year. We're
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: gonna talk through all of that. And uh, this is
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: also one of my first, like ever, really really really
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: big DFS stays. Back when when Corey Connors won as
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: a Monday qualifier, had the outright and had him at
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: like zero point five percent, and I think it was like,
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: I don't know, sixty two hundred or something like that.
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: So that was a lot of fun and hopefully we
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: can make some magic happen this week as well.
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I love that too. And you brought up the
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: saddies and stuff, and a guy, Kyle Goclect says, you know,
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: saddies everywhere right now. I think it's funny even when
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: like so, first of all, I think like just monitoring
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: on X and talking to friends that are beginning. But
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: like in the poker streets, there was a lull where
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: people are like, all poker's dead and like there's not
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: gonna be the poker. You know, what still existed when
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: poker was quote unquote dead was there was still satellites
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: everywhere you could play to get into big time tournaments.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Like no matter what, the niche and the hobby and
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: the fun and all that still existed and people wanted
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: to play it. It was just maybe there was more satellites
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: and stuff. So I see a lot more people getting
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: into those. They are away to make it a game changer.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: But I think to your point, and just like we
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: always keep you know, evergreen topical whatever. If you look
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: like you know right now, if someone if you don't
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: play MLB dfs, I'm just I always gonna advise how
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: I feel about it. I want the sport to go.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: I want you to go and play it if you
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: want to play it, or you're good at it, or
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: you feel like you have an edge, but just noting it.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: I think i'll get your quick take on this too.
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: I think the MLB DFS pros are the best of
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: the best any sport. That's my opinion personally, And I
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: go off of like a lot of things, but one
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: of the things I'll say and then i'll kick it
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: to you is the live finals. There is never almost never,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: I should I can't say never because people give you
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: all one hundred percent of the time. But it's like
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: you go to the MLB DFS Live Final or even
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: like look in the MLB lobbies, the lotteries, the main tournaments,
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: all that the best of the best win at MLB DFS.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Like it's just the way it goes and that's who's there.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: You don't really see outsiders or like randoms getting lucky
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: to get into it. What what's your thoughts on the
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: MLBDFS streets.
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree with that, and I think it's because
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: MLB is probably the most just like game theory correlation
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: driven in less about who you're actually playing, and so
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: the DFS pros are very very good at that, and
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: that's you know, obviously what you and I really stress
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: a lot. And Yeah, the other thing I was thinking about,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: I was actually thinking about this last night is like,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: if you could be really really good at any one
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: DFS sport, it probably should be MLB because you get
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: to play it every single day, sometimes twice a day,
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: for eight months of the year. So if you're really
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: really good at it, that's quite a few opportunities to
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: make some good money, Whereas like if you're really really
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: good at NFLDFS, you have twenty main slights in the
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: entire season to take advantage of that. So, yeah, just
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: some late night thoughts that I had last night, and
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: we're we're trying some really cool stuff over my discord.
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: So if you are playing MLB ATFS and you want
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: to be on the cutting edge of some stuff, I
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: definitely recommend checking that out.
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a really good call out there. Like, you know,
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: people don't think about it like that. Most people say, well,
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: NFL's where all the money is. But to your point,
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: you only get so many weeks of that and if
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: you really write off like weeks one in week eighteen.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: As you know, the first week is always a bit
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: wild because we've had pricing for over a month. The
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: last week is always like who's gonna sit, who actually
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: has more? Who whatever? It's hard to tell. You might
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: only really get those sixteen weeks of NFL and then
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: you get the playoffs and all, and it's all exciting.
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: We're gonna play it no matter what. Huge prizes of
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: life changing money, every slate, you got, the showdown slates,
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: all of that. But like you said, you can get
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: really good at one. MLB would be one to dig into,
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: and it's really data driven, so if you like that
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: kind of stuff, there's a lot more into it most
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: people do. Speaking of good callouts, I mean, you had
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: one pre show, so I'm gonna start there because we're
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: not gonna do a big recap of last week whatever whatever,
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: but just noting it about like people taking last week's
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: results and being like, oh man, that guy really sucked,
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: and then so many people don't go back to them
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: this week where they say like oh or or it
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: could actually flip someone who did really good. You could
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: always also apply that, but just talked a little bit
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: about what we talked about pre show was sort of
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: like what the predominant setup was last week, what really
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: came through from the stats perspective and just even the
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: eye test of like clearly what you needed and what
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: worked and how that may or may not apply moving
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: forward because people can use that on any given week.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: Really, Yeah, I talk a lot about course fit on
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: the show, obviously, and it's one of my like obviously
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: main ways of analyzing PGA dfs. And last week's first
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: fit model was one of the most severe that I've
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: literally ever seen. Driving distance was three hundred and fifty
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: percent more predicted than usual. So you take any two players,
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: whatever their skill gap is in strokes game driving distance.
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: Let's say it's you know, a quarter of a stroke.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: It was almost a full stroke last week. Because whatever
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: that skill gap was, you have to multiply it by
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: three and a half for the expected strokes game per
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: round difference last week. Like, it's just nuts. We don't
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: see any skill sets ever with that crazy of a weight.
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: And so the takeaway there is, let's say you really
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: like a player this week, but you look at his
• 6:43
  Speaker 3: form last week and it was oh man, he just
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: really didn't play that well. Do do I really want
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: to go right back to him, Well, if he wasn't
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: one of the longer players last week, what he did,
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: just throw it out the window. It doesn't matter because
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: anyone who wasn't long last week was just facing such
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: an uphill battle that it does not matter how poorly
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: they played from that. And conversely, as you said, like
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: if someone played really well last week as a really
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: long hitter, now they're going to a course where distance
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: is less predictive than usual and every other skill set
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: is a little more predictive than usual. That form last
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: week it's not gonna help them a ton this week.
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: They have to be really good throughout the bag and
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: not succeed just because of their distance, which they were
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: able to do a week ago.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, good, great call outs.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Good.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: You know DFS perspective. I mean, that's how I'm always
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: thinking about things, And I know you're working on this tirelessly.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: You're working around the clockets and multiple different sports at
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: any given moment, and then just thinking about theories and
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: ideas and concepts that you can help others use to
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: get better at their game. So I love that from
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: that angle, you might be able to work on some
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: ownership here for a second, I will say one takeaway
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: I have from last week. It's more personal, but I'll
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: definitely bring it up. I thought it was, you know, awesome.
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: I think everybody knows and loves the story of Gary
• 7:48
  Speaker 2: Woodland getting the job done, which was obviously incredible to
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: see and just you know, everything that he's been through.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: But I really did like, and I'll be a little
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: more vulnerable myself on this, but his vulnerability of being
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: able to say, like how you know, CERTA things affect
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: you and how you can use those mentally, you know,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: thinking about things mentally and moving forward and DFS it's
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: a big mental game as well. It's not relating it
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: to sort of his you know, tumor and problems that
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: he had physically, but just talking about his his mental
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: stuff that he went through in the PTSD and and
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: all that. And I think if you look at like
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: Gary Woodland bouncing back and getting the win, to me,
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: it reflects like my sign and my mantra, like nobody
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: cares Worrek Carder, like you can go through any struggle
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: in life and you can bounce back and get there.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: But I will say, just for my own personal reflection
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: and just thinking out loud and just sort of saying
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: it like it is, like how Gary said it is.
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: He also allowed himself to be really vulnerable, go deep
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: on something that most people won't talk about, specifically men
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: going into saying and you know, talking about their mindset
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: and you know, how they feel and all of those things.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: And he did that and then kind of bounce back
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: and got to win from that. And I know, for
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: me this sign I've talked about the son in the past,
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: but you know, I do believe and nobody cares where
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: harder in. You know, if you win, you'll get congratulations,
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: but you got to keep after it or people are
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: gonna try and win the next one off of you,
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: even your best friends and closest allies. It's that's the
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: game we play. And when you lose, nobody cares. Everybody
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: has a sob story. It's like, Okay, great, that happened
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: to me tenfold worse, but also I hear you, but
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: like we just got to move forward. That's all you
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: can do. But all that to say, you know, sometimes Alex,
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: I've been on and you know, like a really bad
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: outcome on a Sunday, like again, no control. The game's
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: over when we locked it on Thursday, or in football
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: Sunday morning, whatever it might be, and just have to
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: hop on a show Monday morning and say, oh, but
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: this sign says everything. I think there is something to
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: be said about sort of just being able to live
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: in the moment, let those feelings happen, recognize that something's
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: not going great, and even talk about it with somebody
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: and then be able to sort of go on from there,
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: because then you can recognize what that downward spiral or
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: that worse moment for you felt like, and actually, you know,
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: learn from that and move on. I think even like
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: a guy like Rory who in the past you know,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: will shit on them because he's a pro athlete, you
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: should talk to the media all this. Look at these
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: young kids that walk in and talk to you know.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: But sometimes there's like something about going to your As
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: much as people talk about the happy place, sometimes going
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: to like your negative place can lead to more happiness
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: in the future because you recognize, like what that down
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: really feels like and where you wouldn't want to be
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: there again if you can avoid it. If not, at
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: least you can learn what those feelings feel like to
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: adjust from them for next time. So I mean my
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: tambo talk for the day, but I will say it's
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: just like something that I really thought of, what the
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: Gary Woodland thing. Congrats to him, amazing to see what
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: he can do and go out and get that w
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: But did you have any other follow up from last
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: week at all, anything else you want to talk about there?
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I mean Woodland himself talked about like what
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: an incredible weight was lifted off of his shoulders just
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: by having that conversation. So one hundred percent agree with
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: everything you said. And actually you and I on the
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: Mastermind episode we talked a lot about just like kind
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: of daily habits where we're just things we like doing,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: where it's kind of our own form of just taking
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: care of our mind, taking care of our emotions, and
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: so like, you know, it doesn't have to mean being
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: deeply vulnerable like that if you don't have something to
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: be deeply vulnerable about. But it's you know, reading every day,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: working out every day, eating wealth, just good habits like that.
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: Sleeping well obviously is the biggest of all I think
• 11:05
  Speaker 3: for any DFS player, like that sort of stuff has
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: a much greater impact on your df DFS success than
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: you realize. And so just doing those sorts of things
• 11:15
  Speaker 3: well every single day, that in and of itself will
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: probably make you more successful in DFS, like as well
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: as any tips you can learn as well as you know,
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: any improvement in your in your projection model or anything
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: like that. Just really good daily habits to take care
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: of yourself. Definitely pay pay dividends.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: And it's called leverage lane. And I know we'll get
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: to the m we'll definitely talk about our lane for
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: the week. But in personal habits and in life, like
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: you do, got to find your own lane. Like we
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: talked about that as well. Like everybody. Some people eat
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: on this diet, some people work out like this, some
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: people prefer running for their cardio, some people per swimming.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: It's like, whatever your lane is, find it in that
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: as well, because it's huge and it does play into
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: DFS because I know this happens a ton and if
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: you're out there watching, you can probably agree there's tons
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: of people that do this. You think you're getting a
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: six or six on Friday. To relate it fully to
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: DFS golf, that golfer fails on the last two holes
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: and screws you, and now you have a five or six.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: Now you are counting it as a six of six
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: when you shouldn't be. That's one thing you can learn
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: from and get better at over time. But I'm saying
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: what ends up happening is now people jump into the
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: round three showdown streets or sorry, yeah, round three moving day,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: like Friday, Friday afternoon. This happens that night. They're pissed
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: off about thinking about round two and how they got
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: screwed on the six of six. So they're jamming the
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: money in and playing with like no actual care to
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: the slate. There's no edge, angle work, prep attack. It's
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: just like, let me look at what the stuff says
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: and pound more money in because I got to make
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: up for everything I just lost, which, by the way,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: you didn't even know if you were going to win anything.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: But it's now you're putting bad money in because you're
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: not doing it from a good place. So just keep
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: that in mind. I love Stat's point here. I was
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: talking about the other side of this. Definitely, always celebrate
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: whatever it is, and again that's your lane. Some people say, oh,
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: I only you know I turned five bucks into a thousand.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: I wish it was in the one that would have
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: won me one hundred k. It's like, do you know
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: how hard it is to turn five bucks into a thousand?
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: That's phenomenally good? Like that's so good and you should
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: celebrate that. It's you celebrate and then you go back
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: to real life. But it's the other side of it.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: I think some people, like even myself, just too hard
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: on myself because of this sign exists to not be
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: able to be vulnerable and tell people like, man, that
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: still really sucked yesterday and I gotta tell you this
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: is why, and this is happening before and it's not
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: really whinding. Sometimes it's like getting the feelings and emotions
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: out that can help you learn from it and get
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: better for next time. So we'll move off that stuff.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: I do like what Kyle brought up here too. This
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: was Alex's idea. We didn't like have this thumbnail and
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: they'd be like, oh, I guess we got to X amount.
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: It's like, I'm just so sick of all the wd's
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: that we might as well just leave it and live
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: with it. Let's just bust it up right up on
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: the thumbnail and enjoy right that's the right Ryan sided here.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Good morning fellas to the WD Open or oops, I
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: mean the VLAIO Texas Open. It's kind of the same
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: thing there with that one. And then Matt I saw
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: your question. We'll bring that up here in a little bit,
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: but just go back to this week. Is there anything new?
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: If nothing else on the last week, then Alex, is
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: there anything else you want to bring up? Just on
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: weather Texas as a whole, the skill sets kind of
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: bringing across what your point was into. I don't know
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: if this week's the driving distance needed, like, but obviously
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: you know the driving distances can always help and these
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: guys have it in the bag. But what's your thoughts
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: on the course SMIT for this week?
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: Yeah, let's let's jump right into weather because this is
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: it's it's reminiscent of the Players Championship week where we
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: talked through the weather is like, look, we're seeing competing
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: reasons why you know, this wave might get an advantage
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: or this wave might get an advantage. And my biggest
• 14:31
  Speaker 3: takeaway isn't that I want to play one specific wave.
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: It's more so that it just seems unlikely that all
• 14:37
  Speaker 3: these factors are going to perfectly cancel each other out,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: and we're going to be left with no advantage. And
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: so the likelihood that unadvantage exists and a significant one
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: is high enough that I want to stack in one
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: direction regardless, just because that's going to be, you know,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: the the fastest way the path of leaves resistance to
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: a takedown and to winning some tickets this week. And
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: so I'll show you what I'm seeing right now. This
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: is one of the models. And so this looks like
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: pretty consistent on Thursday, maybe a little bit lighter early on,
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: maybe even some some delays throughout the day, and then
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Friday afternoon gets really gusty, really difficult. And so if
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: this happens, there's a good chance that late early is
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: gonna have an advantage. And there are storms heeries, like
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: already we're seeing there's so many variables in play. But
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: if we go to some of these other models, we
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: can see like this is showing actually a really calm
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: Thursday morning, no storms, no lightning in the area, tougher
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: in the afternoon, and then pretty consistent throughout Friday, maybe
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: a little bit tougher in the afternoon. And obviously this
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: model doesn't go all the way through the afternoon. So
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: this is gonna be something that I look at more tonight.
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: Once this model and the hr r R our boy
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: James this was his favorite model. Yeah, it doesn't have
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: it doesn't have anything yet for Friday, but tonight it'll
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: show all this and so we'll get an even better indication.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: But this one agrees that Thursday morning might actually be
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: really calm. So if Thursday morning has a chance of
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: being really calm, but then Friday afternoon has a chance
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: of being like the toughest wind of the entire week,
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: which is gonna win out, we have no idea. Plus,
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: it could be that it's really calm Thursday morning, then
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: the heavy winds don't come in Friday afternoon, or maybe
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: it's the opposite, And so they are just all these
• 16:22
  Speaker 3: possible outcomes. We don't yet know what's most likely, but
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: it seems really smart at the moment to build for
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: the possibility of a pretty big wave advantage in either direction,
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: so that you know in single entry that can mean
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: you just pick one. And the way that I usually
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: do it is I find my favorite plays and I say, okay,
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: are they all in the same wave if they are
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: easy answer that's the wave that I'm stacking. If they're not,
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: then I've got to think about it a little bit harder.
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: But if you're running multiple lineups, like I think, if
• 16:50
  Speaker 3: you're doing three entry this week, do one early stack,
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: do one late stack, and then the third one can
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: be whatever you think is best, or you can mix
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: between the two regardless of you know, that's a that
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: last one's kind of a personal preference. But I think
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: the stacking of each wave is just a really smart
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: thing to do if you're doing multiple lineups.
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: Yep, bubble popped. We'll skip to the end to my lane.
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: Because it's funny you said that. I literally have it
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: in my phone typed in. And this is actually an
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: annual reminder for this tournament because it's been so so
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: much experience with it. You know, you guys know I
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: love a good sample size. Well, what is it like
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: ten plus years of playing pgadfs, this event's been around.
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: It's like I said, I'm dating back to like the
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Kevin Chappel days, you know, the different events and stuff.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: So that's one that I have for sure that I
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: think is important. And I will note on that just
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: a couple we're not gonna do a million things about
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: last week, which is quickly somebody. I know Jason's joking,
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: He's serious, but Joe and congrats first off taking down
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: the Mini Max. But you can't spell Scott without Ott.
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: And the man was amazing off the t They told
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: us he can't do anything off the t He was
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: like seventeenth on the tournament at the first three rounds
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: were even better. It was like, man, he was doing
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: just fine off the t. So for people saying that,
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: and another thing about last week is it's when you
• 17:59
  Speaker 2: have fifteen to twenty guys in the seven K range
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: and upper six K range do really well, and you
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: have enough guys in the nine K range that's just
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: gonna be a product of roster construction. Like that just
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: fit too many times for too many people that worked
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: well enough that you're not gonna see the Adam Scott's
• 18:15
  Speaker 2: or the Keith Mitchells and those guys that had really
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: good weeks for their price tags fit in. But that's
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: why we build accordingly, and especially if you have a portfolio,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't for your single entry.
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: But if you have a portfolio, you probably had lineups
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: in all camps of those style of builds. It just
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: did you land on the right options of the right
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: guys within it. So I also saw like a Kenny
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: w slash Levitan sex joke here, like you know, where
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: the wife says it it doesn't really matter two point
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: twenty five three inches like those They make fun of
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: themselves for that all the time. But I think, like
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: from a rough perspective, this week it's you know, it's
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: every week you're gonna find situations like this. For me,
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: it's just not something I factor in enough. I think
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: it matters more to me at least, And like like
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: with the Bryce and one wing foot and it's like, Okay,
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: clearly there's gonna be this rough and clearly that's gonna
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: be a massive advantage. I don't care if he's in
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: it or not. He's gonna be playing like eighty yards
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: ahead of people. Sometimes more so, it's like that is
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: gonna matter a lot more to me. Where the others
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: are gonna take two shots from the place he's gonna
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: be taking one. It's that's definitely going to add up
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: over four days, and it's just gonna be that way.
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: And it was and he won. So anything you want
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: to add on the rough. When you when you see stuff.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: Like that, Well, the thing that I ask myself when
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: when I see things like that is Okay, if if
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: the rough is a lot more penalizing this week, how's
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: that gonna affect the course fit model. Well, it's probably
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: gonna make accuracy off the tea a little bit more predictive.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: It's probably gonna make around the green play a little
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: bit more predictive because the guys are gonna hit fewer greens.
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: All right, Both of those are already spiking in the course
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: fit model. So it's not it's not gonna change anything
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: in the in the way in which I, you know,
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: identify good plays. I'm already looking at those skill sets
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: pretty heavily. So it's just it's basically just gonna enhance
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: the guys that I already like, Yeah, I'm.
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: Gonna say my other takes on the wave stuff at
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: the end and go through it. It's not, you know,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: there's more to it, but just like, yeah, it's not
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: just the weather that's even bigger at an advantage. Obviously
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: a reason why, but we talked about a plenty in
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: the past for any regular watchers to know. Let's hop
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: into it. Then let's go to our topic of the
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: week real quick. And we did talk about it a
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: little bit already. We can probably probably round this out
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: in ten minutes or less, but just talking about it,
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: I think it's important. With the Masters on the horizon.
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: So how are you are? We talk about all the time.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: Everybody wants to start with the players. Well, guess what,
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: anybody who's in the Masters is already getting ready for it.
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: Some of them withdrew to get ready for it live
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: or in a different way. And then yes, you do
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: have the people that are on the bubble that need
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: to get in. It's to me again, not even about
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: naming them. That was forever proven wrong. You want to
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: sample size on that. Go back to the FedEx Cup
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: every year when people are like, oh look there's five
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: bubble boys. Yeah, there's also another five inside there, there's
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: ten and the or shift to whatever you want to
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: call it. There's a bunch out and a bunch in,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: and they both sets had all season to land where
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: they landed, and they're all trying just as hard to
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: the ultimate and outcome here. So guess what, anybody who's
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: not in the Masters has motivation to get into the
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: Masters that can anybody who's in has motivation to work
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: on some stuff and get after it and see what
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: happens and try and win a golf tournament. And then
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: anybody who didn't want to focus on that or focus
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: on it in their own way has already wd'd or
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: moved on. So anything on that front, and then yeah,
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: just talk to me about it from a DFS side,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: how you're prepping up for next week, the big Megamillie,
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: all those satellites that you talked about. I don't know
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: if you got any tickets yet. I got one so far,
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: so I'll kick it over to you on that, but yeah,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna be trying for more. I'll go more
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: on that in a minute. Yeah.
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: So essentially, like this topic boils down to the fact
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: that this DFS week is a little bit different than
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: most because you know, most DFS weeks are just kind
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: of all about that week and you're just trying to
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: do the best that you can that week. This week
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: I think is largely about maximizing and optimizing for next
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: week and the number one way in which that I'm
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: doing that because I don't have any tickets yet for
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: the mastersses. I'm trying to win tickets. So I'm trying
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: to win tickets in the MLB streets today. I'm trying
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: to win tickets all week this week. Hopefully they've got
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: some good tickets available satellites available in showdowns as well,
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: I'll be hammering those. And I personally am not going
• 22:06
  Speaker 3: to change my strategy of making one lineup per week,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: Like I'm not gonna do three lineups this week just
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: to have two extra chances to win tickets. I'm still
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: just gonna play my strategy because I think it in
• 22:16
  Speaker 3: the end like that's in the long run, it means
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: that I'm probably a little bit less likely to win
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: a ticket this week, But in the long run, I'm
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: still going to hit a good amount of tickets and
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna throw away extra money trying to get
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: the ones that I don't end up getting. So that's
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: a big thing for me. But then there are also
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: going to be many people who either already have tickets
• 22:38
  Speaker 3: and they know, Okay, I've got three tickets for the Masters,
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: so I need to build three lineups next week. This week,
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: I'm going to practice for that, and I'm gonna build
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: three lineups, and I'm gonna figure out how how I
• 22:50
  Speaker 3: want to build a portfolio of lineups that's better than
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: the sum of the three individual lineups. And that way,
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: next week, when I have to do the exact same thing,
• 22:59
  Speaker 3: I will have this past week to learn from. I'll
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: have this week to take lessons from and to say
• 23:04
  Speaker 3: I did this really well, or I want to change
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: it this next week. Maybe maybe I went a little
• 23:08
  Speaker 3: bit too hard on the wave stuff and didn't get,
• 23:10
  Speaker 3: you know, enough of a mix of the guys that
• 23:12
  Speaker 3: I really liked. Or maybe it's the opposite, Maybe I
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: cared too much about fitting players in and didn't do
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: enough strategy wise with the different wave possibilities. So get
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: that information, get that practice in this week. And that's
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: also true for anybody who like not everyone is trying
• 23:28
  Speaker 3: to win tickets the way that we are. And so
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: if you already know what kind of contest you're going
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: to play next week for the Masters, most of those contests,
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: by the way, are already in the lobby. Suit's already
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: easy to tell what you want to play next week.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: Maybe it's a three entry next week. Maybe you really
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: like the twenty max or something like that. Whatever, you're
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: going to play next week, try to apply it this week,
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: get some early practice, and that way next week you're
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: doing as little like adjusting of your process as possible,
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: and you just know exactly what you want to do,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: how you want to attack this light.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: Love that, And I'm gonna add on because obviously some
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: articles this stuff lately and just tying it into everything that
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: we talked about. I mean, first of all, like I
• 24:03
  Speaker 2: said earlier, if you're not good at baseball dfs, just
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: because they're satellites over there, is probably not best for
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: you to chase them. Guys like Alex and all kinds
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: of pros are going to be playing them too, and
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: that doesn't mean you can't beat them on a given slate.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: I want to support you and say, like, go do
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: your best, but I'm just saying, if you're not usually
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: in it, then why would he get over there just
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: because they have them. If you, if you usually are
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: in PGA satellites, that money is going to be much
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: better off being spent this week in the PGA satellite
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: lobby trying to get into what you would usually play.
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: And the segue on that is if you don't usually
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: play a ten dollars million maker with four hundred thousand people,
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: and you just want to take a couple of shots
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: at it. You don't even need a satellite in this week.
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: Just put that money towards the twenty bucks that you're
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: going to play next week and throw two lineups at
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: it and play to win and see what you can do.
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: But if you know the one hundred dollars million maker
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: with one hundred and fifty, if you would usually have zero,
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: but you feel very comfortable just building out three to
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: five lineups, or you feel comfortable just building one lineup,
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: and you and you want to try and win that
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: in then I would play satellites into that this week, right,
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: And you know the other thing is for Alex's point,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: because it kind of goes where I'm actually gonna tie
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: it in now with Matt's question, and I'll kick it
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: over to you to answer in better for him in
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: a second. But he says, when I when I, you know,
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: I do have a question about playing your lane which
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: talk like his own when I find it and I
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: want to play multiple single entry contest, do I just
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: play the same six or rotate the fifth and sixth
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: guy for better exposure leveraging, and you mentioned it, like
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: I guarantee you, and I almost speak for you, but
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: like you could obviously play a six max nineteen dollars
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: satellite like a single entry, and you could just rotate
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: the six man and run six lineups the same and say,
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: hopefully I get it right, but you're only gonna get
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: one ticket. So it's almost like in that instance, I
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: would honestly rather find like three nineteen dollars satellites that
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: are six max and play like two, two and two
• 25:46
  Speaker 2: and still rotate it to hopefully at least if I'm
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: very close with my five, the six man rotates, that
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: gets me multiple tickets. But the way you do it
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: and running the same lineup, there's a there's a fifty
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: max entry five zero in the thirty three thirty three.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Everybody wants one. I want one. I want at least
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: have a shot. I saw a giant squid do it
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: with two, but that was a forty four to forty
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: four with seven hundred people. But I can still apply
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: my thoughts and play my one to three. Whatever I
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: end up with here probably and hopefully it's more, but
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: it's likely one to three at least one. But with
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: you when you get into this may not be this week,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: maybe the PGA Championship, but if it is, you're probably
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: gonna have three to six to eight tickets where it's like,
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: is that fifty?
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: No?
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: But are you gonna be able to do some damage
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: now and play it accordingly if that's what your goal is, Yes,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: and that's the difference, you're gonna have an ability to
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: attack it in a different way. I'll let you add
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: on to mats and anything else you want to add
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: to that statement.
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: So when I talk about playing single entry, I I'm
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: really usually talking about just playing one lineup because I
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: think I've made this point on this show before. But
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: like in my mind, if you're playing five different single
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: entry lineups in five different single entry contests, you're kind
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: of playing five entry like you know it's it. You
• 27:00
  Speaker 3: should in that case, you should still be thinking about
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: how those five lineups create a portfolio of lineups and
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: not just I've got these five, I really like them,
• 27:10
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna play them. So when I talk about playing
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: single entry only, I'm talking about building one lineup and
• 27:16
  Speaker 3: the reason why I do that. I think I've talked
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: about this before, but so apology apologies for anyone who's
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: heard this before, but for anyone who hasn't, like the
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: reason why I play one lineup and one lineup only
• 27:27
  Speaker 3: ninety nine percent of the time is because I find
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: it easier to build one lineup really really well than
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: to build three lineups where they're all really good lineups
• 27:36
  Speaker 3: and they you know, they some to they're better than
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: the sum of their individual parts. I So for me,
• 27:42
  Speaker 3: like that's just easier. I find that I'm more effective
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: as a DFS player when I'm building one lineup and
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: one lineup. Only one of the times that I do
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: deviate from that is when I say, man, these first
• 27:54
  Speaker 3: five in my lineup are really really strong. This is
• 27:57
  Speaker 3: an outstanding start to the lineup. But when I use
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: these five, I know that my sixth player in the lineup,
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: my final spot in this lineup, is clear and a
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: way like the by far the weakest link in the lineup.
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: So I'm willing to now split that and I'll do
• 28:12
  Speaker 3: two different single entries and I will split that last one,
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: so now I at least have two chances or three
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: chances to get that final spot right. When I know
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: that the rest of the lineup is giving myself a
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: really really big advantage over the field, and then I'm
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: kind of losing that advantage with the six spot in
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: the lineup. So I'm at least going to give myself
• 28:29
  Speaker 3: multiple chances to get that spot correct. So that's one
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: of the ways that I differentiate. And then the second
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: way is like as I said, you know, sometimes, like
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: I did at the Players, I will say, Man, I'm
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: really not confident about which wave is going to be
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: the advantage, but I am very confident that people are
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: going to use six zero stacks significantly less than they
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: should be, So I'm going to use multiple six zero
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: stacks and play in both directions. So that's what I
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: did at TBC Sawgrass. You can do that this week.
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: But if that's the case, then you probably don't want
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: to just change the last guy in the in the lineup.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: You want to change the whole lineup so that you're actually,
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: you know, playing both sides of it really well. So
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: it's very slight dependent, but largely I'm I'm putting one
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: lineup in all those contests, not as like a strategic
• 29:13
  Speaker 3: thing where I think mathematically it's better to have the
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: same lineup in each contest. But because I think I'm
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: going to produce better lineups that way.
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that answers Matt. And I'm gonna tie to this
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: as well because i think that's another focus piece. And
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: then we'll get onto the Walhero Texas open and looking
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: at the chalk build for this week. But it's this,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: This is where people like, if you really think you
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: got the five guys first of all, like you should
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: be on like top forty parlays of like put five
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: guy top forty perlis. If you think you have the
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: nut five guys and you're just unsure on the six,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: get that going. Because one thing I would note, and
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: it goes with Timmy Dubbs here, you know, playing is
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: it a two v two or a three v three
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: that no one knows. There's no magic answer. It's like
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: you can vary it however you want. But what I'll
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: note to Alex's statement in my opinion, what I would do,
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: you know, as an add on to that, is it's
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: not always just the sixth man for me. And this
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: is where it comes into like playing a three max
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: like a single entry last week. I just gave the
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: example earlier where a lot of lineup Scott there with
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: three nine ks and multiple sevens or multiple sevens and
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: one six K. But that's because of how the week
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: played out, and that any week can do that. So
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: if you really are out on, like you, if you
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: just can't figure out the six man, but you think
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: you got the five, you could rotate that in one
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: sure or a couple. Whatever you choose to do depend
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: on how many lineups you have. But I think one
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: of the key components is look at the build, look
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: at the roster construction, because I don't care how good
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: you're You know, if you know your weakest link, that
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: is a great starting point for sure, the six spot.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: But even if you're unsure of like your fourth versus fifth,
• 30:35
  Speaker 2: but you're good on your top three, what roster construct, Oh,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: you got an eight K guy in there as one
• 30:40
  Speaker 2: of your main five. What if you take your eight
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: K and this final seventy five hundred dollars guy that
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: you're unsure of, let's just use math and you take
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: it up to nine K and sixty five hundred. Well,
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: now you've got yourself a different build. You've got a
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: six K guy that most aren't using. You're skipping the
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: eight K range. You get yourself a different build version,
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: even though you technically remove your fourth or fifth best guy,
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: It's like, do you really have the exact five right?
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: So why it's not always just about rotating one. For
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Matt's question and for Timmy Dubbs here, it's like, that's
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: where a TWOV two or a three B three could
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: end up making more sense depending on how many lineups
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: you have and how you're playing it. So like that
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: strategy quite a bit. We'll talk more on it next week. Obviously,
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: a couple of big Master shows are doing the Long
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: with Mayo on Tuesday, and then we're back Wednesday here
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: as usual at ten thirty am Eastern. You want to
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: talk about Valero, now you're good.
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: Well, Well, one last thing I want to say here
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: is it's really easy to think about when you're talking
• 31:33
  Speaker 3: NFL dfs or mlbdfs because the lineups there are so segmented.
• 31:36
  Speaker 3: So like, you know, you have a stack that you
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: really like in NFL, and now you're going to rotate
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: the running backs are in baseball, like I love the
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: five man Philly stack today, but I want to differentiate
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: my pitchers from one line up to the next door.
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: I want to differentiate my secondary stack from one line
• 31:50
  Speaker 3: up to the next, things of that nature. It very
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: much is harder to identify in pgadfs what it is
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: that you should be changing. But the best to do
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: it is just ask yourself, what is it about my
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: lineup that I'm most confident in and what am I
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: least confident in? And then change the thing that you're
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: least confident in and keep the thing that you're most
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: confident in. Pretty simple.
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And to add on just quickly of the MLB
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: side of things, you said too, like, I actually see
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: this A lot people land on a cheap Yankees outfield
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: or they got a Yankee stack, so they feel like
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: it's clear, but they like, I don't know Grissom and
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: it's like, but Stanton's there too, Oh, which one do?
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: I guess I'd better run a second lineup. It's like
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: I would never do that personally, I teach their own
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying I'm right, but what I'm saying is
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: I would go with what I think makes the most sense,
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: whether I'm using a certain process, projection, stack ranking, whatever
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: you decide to use for your stuff that says this
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: is the way I'm going. If anything I would change
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: to like move I would look for a different version
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: of this lineup that moves, like a picture that I'm
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: in lineup one saying well, I can't go off him.
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: I'd move him to a lower end picture to boost
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: another bat, to allow something more to fit in there
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: and get it like from that decision up to like
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: another guy that goes with Judge, you know what I mean,
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: Like bring the picture down and back up Judge with
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: another good hitter as opposed to like someone that's fifth
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: or sixth in the order or something or whatever it
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: might be. Not that exact example, but just to give
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: you that example of roster construction again, I would rather
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: my second one have different roster construction for my path
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: than saying my eight guys are good, but I'm just
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: gonna change the ninth man and whoever does the best.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: If you really got those other eight things right, it's
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: gonna be very rare that like that one off is
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: gonna save you versus putting yourself in a different roster
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: construction zone could give you something that changes the slight completely.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: And now you've got the Yankee stacks that don't have
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: this super prevalent picture. So there you go little MLB
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: for the people too with the slate coming up there,
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: But we'll get to Valero Texas Open. Let's hop in
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: give me your thoughts on the chalk lineup you're seeing
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: right now and build that we're gonna talk about here
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: for Valero Texas Open. I know a ton of wds,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: but it still seems pretty clean cut at least for
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: the values and stuff. And I know some you know,
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: projection and stuff are showing different, but what do you
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: see right now?
• 33:59
  Speaker 3: It feels like we've had this kind of I don't
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: know if it's just a pricing trend or if it's
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: because we have this many players who are showing some
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: really good form this year, whatever it is, but we've
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: had this dynamic a bunch this season where everyone at
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: nine thousand or above is all going to be popular,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: and like the five, six, seven most popular players on
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: this slay are all gonna come from that range, and
• 34:23
  Speaker 3: then there are gonna be very many popular values at all.
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: So like, personally, I think Zaiden Hut could be really popular.
• 34:31
  Speaker 3: But beyond that post in McGreevy, Meisner addc Smotherman, these
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: are like the only guys who even have a chance
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: of getting to ten percent. So it's a really weird
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: dynamic where it's it's kind of difficult to make decisions
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: at the top based on, oh, I think this guy's
• 34:50
  Speaker 3: going to be like severely under owned, because they're all
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: going to be fairly owned. So we really are in
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: a situation, as we have been a lot recently it
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: seems where our only chance to find like actual separators
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: are down the board. We we can't find. You know,
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: it used to be that slipping through the cracks up
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: top men, he could be five percent. And we'll see
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: that again next week of the Masters, when we we
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: have more you know, elite players, and they're gonna be
• 35:14
  Speaker 3: more guys pricing around eleven and twelve thousand and not
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: just you know ten to five being the highest and
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: everybody except for two guys under ten thousand dollars. But now,
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: like the quote unquote slipping through the cracks that I
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: have projected over nine thousand dollars is McIntyre at fourteen
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: percent in single entries. That's low owned compared to his counterparts,
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: but it's not severely you know, low owned or under
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: owned for pgadfs. So it's just a really weird dynamic
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: in that sense, but a lot of guys who could
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: push thirty percent Fowler, McNeely, Mattsuyama, see who Kim Henley.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: All these guys are over twenty five percent in our
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: sickle entry ownership. And then we also have Tommy and
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: Oberg up there up top. So it again like it's
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: one of those weeks where I just think separators have
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: to come from down the board and I'm kind of
• 36:03
  Speaker 3: sick of that dynamic. I want to be able to
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: say this guy up top has so much win equity
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: and is low owned, he's an awesome starting point. We
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: just haven't had that like at all this year, and
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: it's something in the past years I found a lot
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: of success with.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: Do you think there's any chance just sticking with this
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: for two seconds, you think there's any chance. I was
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: just trying to pull the the easiest way I can
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: to get like a recent form quickly. But you know,
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: we've definitely seen this in the past where Tommy and
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: Ludwig are two guys that don't get over ten k often,
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: and when they do, we've actually seen it where sometimes
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: people shy away right because it's like a little bit
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: too much to pay for them. Neither have good history here. Again,
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: I know that's whatever, but that's just something people look at.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: And Ludwig's got a little bit better for him coming in,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: like Tommy's been bad. But like if you let people
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: see the forty ninth in there and some of the
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: other stuff, they may think differently. But just because of
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: how high people are on the nine K range and
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: the fact that exists, do you think there's any chance
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: going with like a Tommy or a Ludwig and skipping
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: the nine k Again, we're I'm talking more of a
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: way to get different, But do you think those guys
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: could come in lower owned based on the nine K range?
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: Pretty much all being owned? Like you said, just can't
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: get away from it?
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: Really yeah, I mean our single ownership, a single entry
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: ownership on those guys is below the industry. I think
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: it's it's the lowest in the industry on both at
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: least that I've seen. But I still have them over
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: slightly over twenty percent, So it's not like we're saying
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: that they're going to be crazy low owned. I do
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: think the combination of Tommy plus Luvig could be even
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: more controlling than you'd expect. Just giving their individual ownerships,
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: because I do think a lot like so many people
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: are going to that nine k range for their second
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: guy in or even for their first guy in. And
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: part of the reason for that is like, if you
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: have Tommy and Oberg, those are your two spend ups.
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: If you start with si Wu, you could have three
• 37:49
  Speaker 3: nine k guys pretty comfortably. And so what we've seen
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: so far this season is that that's the kind of
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: build that people prefer, and that's why we're projecting it
• 37:58
  Speaker 3: like that. This week, man, I.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Was trying to find and now that you said that
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: there was a man, what week was it? Maybe it
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: was just a if I feel like it was a
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago. Remember it was Xander and Hobland
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: were both up there.
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there was also a week where we had some
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: some withdraws that immediately made every single player on the
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: slate under ten thousand dollars. I think that was right
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: after Bridgeman won.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: I can't remember this week. Yeah, that was another week.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: I'm just trying to look though real quick, because you
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: can see it here exposure summary matching lineups. What would
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: it be like in the sey I'll just use the
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: sandtrap for this example. But if you go to like
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: turn these guys off and I go to Hoveland and
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: shaw fle together. So this was a week where those
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: guys and Akshay were ten k and above and I
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: think I can't remember what happened, but anyway, those two together,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: Hovelem missed the cut, Xander made it. They were only
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: two percent of the thirty six thousand entries. Only like
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: eight hundred had those two together in a lineup. But
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: it's because a lot of people were on the nine
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: K range. Had Fitzpatrick who won it at twenty six percent,
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: Bridgeman at thirty one, eighteen, twenty three, seventeen eighteen, like
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: everybody in the nine K range with eighteen percent or above.
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: So it's like, looking at it from that perspective, I
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: think that's at least a somewhat way to get different.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: And then people also recognizing and remembering to your point earlier,
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: like Bobby Mack, yeah, he'll be fit, Like, oh, if
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: he's fifteen percent, you're like, oh, Bobby Mack wasn't that
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: low and he was fifteen He's like yeah, but if
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: the guys around him are thirty plus in whatever tournament,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: you're playing well, that's a big difference that that's where
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: that exists. So you got to think about that. So
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: right now, do you think more three nine k and
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: then drop down into the sevens or do you think
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: more two nine K and eight and three sevens? Is
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: that kind of how you're feeling about it, because I
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: think it seems to be popping too, as does Keith
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: Mitchell and some of the others in there, but it's
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: the seven K range is loaded.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think two nine's in an eight is probably
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: the most popular.
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: So some combo in my eyes of see Wu Speith,
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: Hedeki and maybe make Neely like those four, it's gonna
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: be some combo of those two or three together, but
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: probably two in our example, and then Fowler Mitchell, those
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: guys pop a little bit and then you get like
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: your Meisner Bizaiden House, you know, JT. Post In Addc's
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: even get Love this week for once at seventy one hundred.
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: So I guess that kind of to me stands out
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: as like the Chalk Mild or the Common build. Yeah.
• 40:24
  Speaker 3: I think Henley and Norn both are going to be
• 40:27
  Speaker 3: popular as well. So yeah, lots of lots of lineups
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: are gonna have that construction for sure.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Henley and Norna the yeah I got them right
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: now is like the secondary. But they fit in and
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: obviously it's only because of I think people like Speeth
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: here Seawou, Decky Mav. Henley's right there with them though.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: And then yeah, like you said, even when you go down,
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: Norn's popping two. So yeah, you got it. That's kind
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: of the setup for the chalk mild. So let's talk
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: a little bit about how we can leverage that. You
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: can focus on sort of the single entry side. I'll
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: focus on. M Me. You gotta give our guy see
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: a shout out. Miss this guy awesome at what he does.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: Go follow him if you don't already, but I'd love
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: to see here sees so I appreciate you. Man, Go ahead, Alex,
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: I'll kick it back to you. Let's talk about leveraging
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: this build because it's also too by by the way,
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I should mention a product of last week, right, Like
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: we always talk about that, the recency bias. It's like
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: it's not people feel like, oh well, it's not that different.
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: You got two guys in the ten k range, but
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: it's not like, you know, they're super killers like people
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: don't think of it as talented as Ludwig and Tommy
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: are and have been, Tommy winning the FedEx and finally
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: getting things off his back and all that stuff. Sure,
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: but people still just don't think about them like that
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: enough to put them in like Tommy or like Scotty stratosphere,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: which by the way, hasn't been working out so far
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: for anyone either. So it's like anyway, the point being,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: there's a lot of conversation around certain stuff, but I
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: do see recency bias and people being like, well, didn't
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: really need the eight K range last week. Maybe I
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: can skip it again, and I can easily fit with
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: all these seven K values and even the upper sixes.
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: By the way, you get like Eric Cole, Bohostler, Putnam Whaley,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: like some of these guys I see popping in projections.
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: So any thoughts on that too, Like recency bias, then
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: how other ways that you can get different in single entry?
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's that's always a good thing to
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: think about. Particularly, I think it's it's especially relevant when
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: someone near the top one. I think when someone near
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: the very top wins, you see more ownership go to
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: like the top guys, the next week. So when when
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: someone like Airy wins, I don't think that's going to
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: affect to ownership a ton, But who really knows. But
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: I think I don't really have much to add base
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: to what we just talked about. Like, I think it
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: is pretty clear this week who the popular guys are,
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: who the popular or what the popular construction is, And
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: it's one of those weeks where we have both things
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: working in the same direction in the sense that when
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: we look at who the popular plays are, who are
• 42:49
  Speaker 3: the guys that people are most confident in playing, it
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: points to the same guys who are the roster construction
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: that people have preferred all season, where you're playing like
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: it's a more balanced approach than what we've often seen
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: in the past because the superstars aren't delivering as often
• 43:07
  Speaker 3: as they have in the past, and because the pricing
• 43:10
  Speaker 3: has just been such that like there aren't guys in
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: the six K range in the low sevens that many
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: people have conviction on it and are really excited to play,
• 43:20
  Speaker 3: And so more and more lineups are about making sure
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: that you feel somewhat decent about all six guys in
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: your lineup and not so much jamming in your favorite
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: plays and giving yourself, you know, two really weak links
• 43:32
  Speaker 3: at the bottom. So when people really like the plays
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: that are already pointing them in the direction of the
• 43:40
  Speaker 3: roster construction that's been popular, it's just like there's very
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: little chance that that's not going to be the way
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: that the field plays.
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I got to take a hard stop here for
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: just a two second break and ask you this, like,
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: where do you stand on April Fools If you saw
• 43:53
  Speaker 2: my post, so be it, But like, this has got
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: to be the worst day ever to be on the internet.
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: I did not see it, and I can't stand it.
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: It's so annoying.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, are we still celebrating there, quote unquote celebrating that
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: it's at least created, by the way, totally in on
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: pranks hoax is Like, here's an example the PGA Tour
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: stick him Golf because it's people here for posted today
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: on April Fool's Day, the prank that they pulled off
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: years ago. Now, by the way, at the Players, which
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: is not on April Fools Day or April field Fools
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: Week or any whatever you want to call it. It's
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: it's definitely not a week it's supposed to end at lunchtime.
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: So any real trolls out there remember that as well.
• 44:26
  Speaker 2: That was part of the thing. But did you see
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: like the Tiffany cuff links and they try to tell
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: him it's like a tax thing and you got to
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: pay eight grand and like you can give him back,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: but at the time, Jay Monahan is the guy, so
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: like Jay will probably be disappointed, and you're like the Gallas,
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: like eight hundred bucks or a thousand, I'd do it,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: but he's like eight grand. No way, I'm in on pranks.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: The reason they're so fun is because no one would
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: know the difference when someone posts today like nuclear Golf,
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: which I follow it. I think it's a great follow
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: for curation and finding out news quickly. But you're posting
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: me that like Grant Horvat is in the Masters. It's
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: like literally the worst joke or prank or hoax, even
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: if it was and April Fool's Day, we know that's
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: not real. Like literally the hardest tournament in the world
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: possibly to get into, and it's like you'll barely get
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: to go there or do anything. And Grand horbats in it. No,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: he's not, so like just fire that into the sun.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: An absolute abomination is terrible. So do you have any
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: comment on this one too? I kind of like this.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Ryan's always interactive and engaging with us, says, is it
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: a mistake in thought process to see players like Tom Kim,
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: John Perry insert name here as a must have in
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: the pool as they have zero missed cuts this year.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: We always look for cut equity, and so far they
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: have that.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that's a mistake because mad cut odds
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: are not a product of the percentage of cuts that
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: you've made in the past, especially not in a small sample. So, like,
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: if you want to look at a player's entire history
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: to say, hey, this guy's made more cuts than we'd
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: expect given his skill set, sure that's something, But just
• 45:53
  Speaker 3: looking at the percentage of cuts that he's made, that's
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: not going to tell you what his percentage or what
• 45:58
  Speaker 3: his probability is of making the cut this week. So
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: you're gonna be over confident about guys who have made
• 46:03
  Speaker 3: a lot of cuts, and you're gonna be under confident
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: in guys who are better than the percentage of cuts
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: that they've made so far this year. So it's a
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: mistake in that regard. But I also think that, like
• 46:14
  Speaker 3: I like both of those players this week, so I
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: would put them in your playerpool. If you have multiple
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: lineups this week, especially if you're someone like Building twenty
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: or one hundred and fifty, then they definitely belong in
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: the player pool. But it's not because they haven't missed
• 46:29
  Speaker 3: a cut this year. It's because they are good players.
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: That's the key. That's what I want to point out.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you brought that point up because that's how
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: I str It's like the samples never it's it's not
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: gonna be great on you know, anything that's happened this
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: year this year on X amount of events and for them,
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure how many it is, but it really
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: ties more to what you set off the top about
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: like who did bad last week? When driving distance was
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: clearly the highest thing that you needed, the prevalent piece
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: that everybody was going off of. That's not gonna be
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: the same for this tournament necessarily. So it's like using
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: that it's kind of the same thing. We don't know
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: what the strength You can figure it out and go
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: back and if that helps youalidate this part of your
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: process than by all means, but there's different field strengths
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: that they played in different styles of courses, different all
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: these different factors that it could be that you'd want
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: to figure it out. Now. If you like both these
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: guys and they fit your process for this week, and
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: they're both low owned and they're in the roster construction
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: that you like and they help fill out your lineup,
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: then put them in. But I would not be putting
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: them in because of the zero misscuts. That would just
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: be a product or a result that you could lean
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: back on later to say, oh, they're still making cuts. Awesome,
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: that's good and I hope they do for you so
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: you can get your lineup through. But that's not what
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: I would be leaning on based off of that. So
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: anything else, Okay, one of mine is going to be
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: for lever my lane when we get there, which will
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: be getting there. Probably suon them later anyway, with today's show,
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: I want and done betting segment quick and then run
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: through it, but just noting it. Like the two guys
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: up top, I thought you said was an interesting one.
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: Those guys both do have good projection. They actually could
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: come in eight to ten percent or more even potentially
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: lower owned than the nine K range guys that are
• 47:57
  Speaker 2: going to be popular the fact that multiple nine K
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: guys are coming in that way, so you don't have
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: to play them both together. I think that's an interesting
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: way to do it because of how loaded the low
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: sevens and upper sixes are especially, so even the couple
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: of those guys could boost you into the range that
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: you want to be in any way, but you would
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: be with say two guys in that mid seven K
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: range where most the nine K lineups are gonna land
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: with three guys there, and you not only would have
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: only two or less because you might be able to
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: get up a little bit of a tier, but you
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: would be on no nine K guys, which there's a
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: lot of fear of missing out when you do that,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: but there's also a really different build that if those
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: lineups don't get there, you're in a really good place.
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: But I think it's clear too the eight K range
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: as much as we mentioned like, okay, yes you have
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Thor Fowler, who else, Noorn Mitchell, Yella and Rio maybe
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: like that's kind of what I'm seeing right now, but
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: a lot of those are gonna be guys that people
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: talk about and use sparingly as opposed to like I'm
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: playing a bunch of them together, I'm gonna get three
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: eight K guys in my line. It's just that that's
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: why there are all gonna everyone's said, but they're all
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: coming out like fifteen percent. Fine, but together it's gonna
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: be even less, and then multiples together even less. And
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: it's like, people, it's the reason they're all coming in
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: at twelve to fifteen percent is because they're probably solid
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: plays on paper, but it's all about the roster construction
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: of what you do with them, and not many people
• 49:18
  Speaker 2: are gonna commit to those builds. We know what they're
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: doing in the nine case, which is just gonna forcefully
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: put them off that range, which may which I look
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: for those options when when that happens, because it's like,
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: well man, that's a way to really get different as well.
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: You could also use like a Ludwig two eight K
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: guys and land in a completely different range and maybe
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: even get a third one in there and do stuff
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: like that. So I think there's a ton of ways
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: to get different that still make a ton of sense
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: this week. If that makes sense.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, And I think the other important point down
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: in that range is that like when you go from
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: from one DFS provider to the next, to the next,
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: you're gonna see different guys down there.
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: Pop.
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: When when we see someone end up you know, thirty
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: thirty five percent, it's because every single site degrees, Hey,
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: this guy's the best value in the seven thousand dollar range,
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: this guy's the best value in the six thousand dollars range.
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: We're not. We don't have that this week, and we
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: actually haven't had it a lot this year. And I
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: think part of the reason for that is Number one
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: Draftings has done a bit of a better job with
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: pricing in the sense that like the order in which
• 50:17
  Speaker 3: they priced players has been better than in past seasons.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: But it's also because they've changed the structure of the
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: pricing to the point where there are just so many
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: guys between like sixty five hundred and seventy five hundred
• 50:30
  Speaker 3: that it'd be really, really shocking to have any of
• 50:32
  Speaker 3: them stand out as like, you know, the clear option,
• 50:35
  Speaker 3: because any person going saying I need three guys from
• 50:39
  Speaker 3: the seventy five hundred dollar range, they've got forty some
• 50:41
  Speaker 3: guys to choose from there. You're not going to land
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: on the same combination as other people very often, right,
• 50:47
  Speaker 3: No talked about this.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: Earlier bad Lands. I appreciate you always supporting and just
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: noting this. Anyone who needs to make the Masters has
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: needed to make the Masters. It's like, you know, like
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: what was last week? There was the big thing around
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: Ricky Fowler, Right, Ricky Fowler was the talk last week
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: about needing to get in. How that work out? Miss
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: cut right, still needs to get in this week. Sure
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: he could do well this week, but it's not just
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: because he needs to get in the Masters. He still
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: needed that last week and I think even a top
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: twenty last week would have got him in, and he
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: could he even make the cut. So just noting it
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: from that perspective, go ahead.
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: This is the strangest narrative to me, and people love
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: it because if anything, like if you're telling me that
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: a player has extra pressure on him, we already know
• 51:31
  Speaker 3: how hard it is to win golf tournaments because the
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: pressure ramps up. In what world does added pressure make
• 51:37
  Speaker 3: it easier to win a golf tournament. It's crazy to me,
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: If anything, this narrative should be going in the opposite direction,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: and it doesn't. People love this because it's like it's
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: the same as you know, a revenge game in NBA
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: to people they want to do well, so they're more likely.
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: To do well.
• 51:51
  Speaker 3: Who teas up? Who teased it up in a golf
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: tournament and doesn't want to win, doesn't want to perform.
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: Who wants to go home because they missed the cut,
• 51:57
  Speaker 3: It doesn't happen. Motivation is not a predictive of success
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: at all, if anything works the apposite direction.
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that is actually really funny you said that, because,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: like I saw yesterday, this comes up all the time.
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: NFL people always relate to though. Like Campbell was talking
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: about David Montgomery and how they made the move and
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: like they're like, we got him to he wanted to
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: get to a team and be a belcow. We're happy
• 52:16
  Speaker 2: for him. We got him over to Houston. He said,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: they're gonna love what they got with David. Like, is
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: he gonna want to do well against his old team? Sure,
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: I mean that's built in, but it's like he has
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: a good game or he doesn't. If they even play,
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: I didn't look at schedules or like if they even
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: got that far with them yet, But just noting it.
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: It's like sometimes it's not always a negative vibe on
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: the way out the door either, it's like, hey man,
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: we want you to go be free and do your
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: own thing and crush it. There's no negative energy here
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: at all, and it's like they're still gonna David Montgomery
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: gets paid to play football and have good football games.
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: He's going to try and have a good football game
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: against any team that he plays. It's not just for revenge.
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: And it's like that that always gets brought up. It's
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: why we love leverage Lane versus narrative Street. Narrat the
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: Street's fun. It's like you know the Mardi Gras in
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: the New Orleans, or you go down the Broadway in
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: in Nashville and stuff like that. But it's like this
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: is more about tactical and like thinking through what's what
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: Like you said as a golf pro yourself and see
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: it's like, let me get more pressure tagged onto you
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: here and see how that goes through you. But that
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: should really make you pull the trigger on winning this thing. Now.
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: It's one of those things. It's always funny.
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: But if if our show was a narrative Street, I'd
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: have gray hairs by the end of next year because
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: I'd be so sick of it all.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: Yes, exactly, that's what makes us fun. I do think
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: this is good to talk about two. I mean, you
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: bring this up earlier and I'll give a quick one
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: on this. So last week, Yeah, a lot of people
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: wanted to play Marco at nine k he drops to
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: seventy eight. I don't think the field's that different. I'm
• 53:37
  Speaker 2: fine with this, so, you know, just saying it from
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: that perspective. But even if it was, I'm just noting
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: this different set up, different course. But like, excuse me,
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: he played really good bogie free sixty six in round one.
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Solid off the tea, solid on approach, found the putter
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: a little bit along the way, was good with that.
• 53:54
  Speaker 2: You look at round two, solid off the tea again,
• 53:59
  Speaker 2: and that's what one hole on ten where he lost
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: almost a stroke. He still gained over half stroke off
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: the tee, and he lost a full stroke on one
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: hole one shot basically you know, off the t on ten.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: But then you look at his approach, that was the
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: only thing that was off. He missed the cut on
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: the number and a hole sixteen, he had a double
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: bogie and lost almost three strokes on approach on that hole,
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: and on his approach on the day on round two
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: was just over three strokes, so it's like one bad
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: hole and now he's down to seventy eight hundred and
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: nobody wants them. Right. He stuck last week, he was horrible,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: and it's I mean, he has driving distance in the
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: bag for five recall correctly looking up the stats. I
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: think that was part of it, is like he definitely
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: has driving distance in the bag. But at the same time,
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: even if that's not needed here, he's definitely a good player.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: It wasn't just that that people want it. So if
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: you want to go back to a guy like him,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: I got no problem with that. I think that's kind
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: of just not about the play as much as about
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: the concept that Alex brought up earlier and then tying
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: it back there. So it's kind of looking for things
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: like that can make sense. And I like that pull there,
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: that that was a good one. His projection's gonna be okay.
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: A lot of that other stuff that goes with him
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: seems fine, So I like it.
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: Active if Patt and I talked about him yesterday, I
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: do want to touch on the on the wind stuff
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: for a second. He's about zero point seven strokes better
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: in WINNI conditions so far than in non winny conditions,
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: but it's a sixth round sample, so it doesn't tell
• 55:16
  Speaker 3: us anything. Now we can look at his game and
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: we can say, all right, this guy with a ton
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: of ball speed, of penetrating ballflight. He has, you know,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: at least characteristics of someone who's going to be good
• 55:26
  Speaker 3: in the wind. So I do I do like that,
• 55:28
  Speaker 3: But don't hang your hat on on small samples of
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: how guys have done in WINNI conditions, because, like I
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: mean a six round samples like literally meaningless, meaningless. I think, yeah,
• 55:40
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm with you, though, like I definitely have interest
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: in him because it's it's it's just a talent bet.
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: And last week plenty of people played him as a
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: talent bet based on what they saw on the DP
• 55:52
  Speaker 3: World Tour last year, plus the fact that it was
• 55:55
  Speaker 3: a good course for him because of how long he
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: is off the tee, one of the longest on tour.
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: But last week you were making a talent bet on
• 56:03
  Speaker 3: a guy who had to beat other nine k players,
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: like really good players in the field. So the guys
• 56:08
  Speaker 3: that you were playing Pene instead of last week were
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: some of the best players in the field. If you're
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: gonna make a talent bet on somebody make it when
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: the guys he has to beat are Denny McCarthy, Rio Hassatsine,
• 56:20
  Speaker 3: Alex Smalley, Davis Thompson, Patrick Rodgers, not the guys that
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: he had to beat last week. So I think he's
• 56:26
  Speaker 3: a much much much better play this week than he
• 56:29
  Speaker 3: was a week ago.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: I love that. And also just even if you did
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: find like a longer sample size on it that you
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: brought it up, it's like that also can be irrelevant
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: because like a lot of people were one way two
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: years ago and are a totally different way this year,
• 56:42
  Speaker 2: So you're just never gonna get enough out of that
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: to me. Like again, that's why I know people hate
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: when I go into this route, Like I think data
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: is super important in golf and can help you out
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: a ton versus others like baseball, super important, NBA. It's
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: all in every sports kind of built in, but like
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: for example NBA, I want more of like what's the
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: projection now it's driven from the data. So I'm not
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: saying it is not important talking about when you're doing
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: these deep dives, though, when we say like everything's already
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: built in and baked into the projection true, but if
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: you can find another angle of attack, I'm all for it.
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: But I'm saying to me, when it comes to that,
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: I already know that's in there. And like, the last
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: reason I'm playing him is because of any wind data
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: this week. What I'm playing him for is everyone wanted
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: him last one last week, no one wants him this week.
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: He was nine K last week, He's seventy eight hundred
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: this week. Everything Alex just said about him is fine
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: in his favor. He's at seventy eight hundred, which, by
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: the way, is a price point that almost nobody's landing
• 57:30
  Speaker 2: on this week. Everyone's landing like seventy five hundred and
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: below and eighty eight hundred and above. So it's like
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: he kind of fits right in the middle there. He's
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: gonna build you some different roster construction. He still projects
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: well versus those around him. My process involves using the
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: stone over at chip Nation, like the chief sheet that
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: we have, and he's got good stuff across the board there.
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: So it's like, yeah, the last reason I'm playing him
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: is because of his wind data, but it's just built
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: in for me all those other factors, and that's why
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: I think that's important when you're looking at roster construction
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: and not just the play or the data that goes
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: with it.
• 58:01
  Speaker 3: And the last thing I want to say about this,
• 58:03
  Speaker 3: and this is true of wind splits. It's true of
• 58:05
  Speaker 3: like basically any splits that you can look at, even
• 58:07
  Speaker 3: like any projection. If you're doing this stuff really really
• 58:11
  Speaker 3: well and you're looking at all the right stuff, all
• 58:14
  Speaker 3: that's telling you is about the center of this player's distribution.
• 58:18
  Speaker 3: But it's golf. Every player has a really wide distribution,
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: and not all the distributions look alike, right, So some
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: guys have much better right tail, So that means their
• 58:28
  Speaker 3: ceiling outcomes are significantly better than other players ceilings. And
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: so that's the kind of stuff that when you're asking
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: those questions, that's where most of the money is in pgadfs.
• 58:37
  Speaker 3: When this guy plays well, how impactful is it going
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: to be for my lineup? When he plays somewhat poorly,
• 58:43
  Speaker 3: is he still making the cut and then making birdies
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: on the weekend or is it a miscut? And I
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: know that on Thursday, you know he's done because he's
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: already six over through twelve holes or something like that.
• 58:52
  Speaker 3: So asking those questions, I think is a lot more
• 58:55
  Speaker 3: important than those subtle little things that are going to
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: change the center of his distribution. Because he's been this
• 59:02
  Speaker 3: good in Wind or that good in Wind, especially in
• 59:05
  Speaker 3: those small samples. It's not gonna change much of anything.
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed, man, all right, So one and done? You
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: know what what do we what are we thinking for
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: this week?
• 59:16
  Speaker 3: My main thound in one and Done is that we
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: suck at it.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm forever, but I lean back on the same
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: thought that I've continuously brought up here, that there's there
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: is ways around it. I think it's like we're not
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: in too deep by any means. We still have all
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: the majors. We've got a bunch of Siggies. I'm just saying.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: I'm not saying to haven't figured out. I know you've done
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: a good job figured out the ownership from like the
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: course fit thing. I'm just thinking, like I really do
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: think you just have to nail the ciggies and the
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: and the majors. And at the end of the day,
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: even if h who do who do me? And you
• 59:47
  Speaker 2: had this exact conversation. By the way, this is not
• 59:49
  Speaker 2: a victory lap. Just to note it's a fact. I
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: said this last week, like play min Wu, who gives
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: a shit like he's not worth anything anywhere else, He's
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: gonna be super high owned. I know you weren't all
• 59:58
  Speaker 2: for that. I'm just noting it like I did. The
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: reason I called it out is I just don't think
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: these things matter. I think these things are like collect
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 2: your two hundred bucks and pass go and move on
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 2: and whatever min Wu got, if it was four hundred
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: grand or whatever, like that's four hundred grand, it doesn't matter.
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: You are going to need to win five to six
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: signature events to have any chance to win this thing.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: So really those ones matter more. And I'm almost not
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 2: saying to ignore the ownership at these events. I'm just
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: saying just don't mess up, like collect one hundred grand
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: or more at these events and put yourself in the
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: position to stack and then you and then So the
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: real the long winded thing here, but the real note
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: is don't blow someone that you're gonna want to have
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 2: at the signatures and that like plan those out. But
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: other than that, ignore the ownership shit at these ones
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: to me, because like min Wu was what eighteen percent
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: last week, Well eighteen percent picked up a pretty good
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: check and I'm not sure how many had Gary Woodland
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: on the card, so it's like that was irrelevant to
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: people in One and Done and whoever else the hell
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: was up there with them. It's like we're, you know,
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: we're people really on all those guys. I don't know,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: but min Wu would have just those guys just picked
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: up their cash and they got some cash, and then
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: they still need to hit the sigy's and they still
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: get to hit the majors. So I don't know. That's
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: my two cents on one and done right now. If
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: I could start over, I'm gonna kind of play it
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: like that from here and.
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: Out though well, And I think like we've had this
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 3: conversation before as well, but it's hard for us to
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 3: talk a lot about one and Done in a way
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: that helps everyone in the same way, because if you
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 3: are doing well in your one and done contest, your
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 3: strategy is very different than if you're doing very poorly
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 3: like we are. Because if you're doing well, if you're
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 3: in good shape, regardless of the one and done that
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 3: you're in in this tournament, your best course of action
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 3: is I want to eliminate anybody, then I know I'm
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: gonna want to play in a signature or a major,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: and then I'm gonna play the best available player beyond that.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: Like that, that's a really straightforward situation to be in.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: I'm very envious to the fact that you're in a
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: situation where you can simplify it like that. But one
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 3: thing that I take away from a lot of these
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: tournaments is we're seeing a lot of like, you know,
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 3: long shot ish guys who are one percent or less
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 3: in one and done who are going on to win.
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: And so if nothing else this week, I'm I'm a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 3: little bit more open to somebody way down the board
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 3: than I have been where I've I've tried to, you know,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 3: find the best player that's going to be low owned
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 3: or that's that I know I'm not gonna want to use.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: I kind of like the idea of just taking someone
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 3: that I know is going to be like zero point
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: one percent in the in the want and done contest
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: or something like that, and just ride it that way
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 3: and hope I get the super super super low owned win.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: Because to your point about how much more impactful signature
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 3: events and majors are, the one way that you actually
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: can gain like a really strong advantage in one of
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: these events is you get the super low owned win
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: where nobody who's owned does anything of any significance, and
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 3: so you're actually getting like the full effect of that
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: that winner's check, which is I think like one point
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: four or something like that. So uh, more contrarian than
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: usuals is probably my theme for one and Done this week.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'll just add like because somebody will say
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: it in the chat and like you you kind of
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: made a point too. It's like it's there's actually there's
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: huge strategy still to this game, and it matters more
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: like yeah, if you're if you're in a segment, stuff
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: like you got to save stuff for that. But the
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 2: biggest factor is just all I'm saying is like even
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: the leverage play, we're still so early in the season,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: even needing the leverage, you're like, well, I'm so far behind.
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Nobody is really so far behind yet you you could
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: be on paper four million dollars behind right now. That's
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: literally one winner at you know, you win, you win
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: the Masters next week with a who knows a ten
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: percent on play, even you're still really right back in
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: the mix and the season barely begun, so you're not
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: really behind, But even then, if I'm looking for like
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: high leverage me moving forward, it's gonna be in the
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: cigies and stuff like if I'm behind and now we're
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: going into a city and I don't have it, and
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: and obviously this increases as the season goes on, but
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: but that's where I'm looking to do it. Like, again,
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: nobody's really pulling a Gary Woodland, and if they did,
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: good for them, and congrats and awesome all around. But
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: it's like, and it matters up it's one point six
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: mill or whatever, but it's like you're not really gonna
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: worry about that as much as like I would rather
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: just have collected the four hundred k or whatever min
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: Wu got and called it a day, versus me trying
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: to pinpoint Gary Woodland week.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: And to your point there, like the nice thing about
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: the signatures and the majors is that there are so
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: many really good players that you can always find a
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: really good player with genuine iniquity at love ownership. So
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 3: even when we're talking about like I'm gonna get contrarian
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 3: and the cities, you're still gonna be doing so with
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 3: very good players. So it's just one of those things
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 3: where yeah, it's we've talked about this before. It's it's
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 3: kind of a shame that One and Done that these
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: weeks are so unimportant for One and Done because they
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: are really fun, and you know, picking picking players in
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: this type of field is arguably a more fun puzzle
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 3: than picking players in the signature event when it's the
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 3: same exact field over and over and over again. But
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 3: it just doesn't matter a whole lot who you take
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: this week.
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I learned this from my dad. He came
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: eighty second in the Mail Cup last year with a
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: horrible finish to the like go to the finish line.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: He missed a ton, like four signature events, and I
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: think he had a miscut in three of them, and
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: he still finished eighty second. But he literally just plays
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: the chalk. He's Papa Tambo is Chaka Tambo. He just
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: plays the chock. And someone said, like they're guessing all
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: this stuff, it's pretty clear he's on speed this week.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: I think his other choice was maybe see Wu is
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: what he brought up. But it's like he's on speed.
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: He's gonna play him, you know, the win here the
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: tenth to twelve. He's playing better recently, like that's what
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: it is, So I get it. And even if Speed
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: is eighteen percent owned or something like that, it's like
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: it just you get what you get and you move on.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: And what's really gonna matter is those signature in those majors.
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: So who do we want to use this week? Then
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: let's let'split the difference on this. We need to pick
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: somebody from the top, but it doesn't have to be Speed, Like,
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: who else are you thinking up there that can stand
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: out for us?
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: Well, my first thought is more contrarian that. My thought
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: is all the way down to Andrew Novak, who's one
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: of my favorite plays of the week.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: All Right, we're still in the one and done. I
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: know that's the betting segment, but just making sure you know.
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: But no, it's funny. We talked about that yesterday in
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 2: your discord. But I'm honestly fine with it because I
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: think if from your point of view and from the
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: alternate angle of what I'm saying, that is the other
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: side of the coin. Right, You're like, if you're not
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: gonna do the I'm gonna play somebody up top. I
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 2: don't care how popu they are. Just collect as we go.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Let's try you can. You can also see it from
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: that side of the coin where it's like, yeah, but
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: you're foreigner k from men making the bank either for you,
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: why not try and peg the guy like zero or
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: four hundred k? Certainly adds up. You'd rather a feur
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: er k in your bank account than zero. But it's
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: like at the same time that trying to pinpoint that
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: guy that really gets you double leverage of more money,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: like Garry Woodland one point six and nobody had them.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: Those are gonna be your separators on the season. So
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: I like it from that angle too, So I'm good
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 2: with with no vacundation.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 3: Also, let's think about it this way. Who's the best
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 3: player in this field that you're confident you're not gonna
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 3: want in a signature event at some point?
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: That's a good point.
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm just spit balling as quickly, but maybe, like
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: Alex Norn, I.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 3: Think that's I think that's a very good call. And
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 3: so let's compare their win odds in our simulations over
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 3: at f TN one point seven percent for Norn, one
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 3: point zero percent for Novak. That's not that different. And
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 3: if Norin is five percent and Novak is point five percent.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 3: You want the point five percent on guy at one
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 3: percent instead of the five percent guy at one point
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 3: seven percent. Like that's just very easy math to do.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 3: So uh yeah, I think I think Novak actually makes
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: a lot of sense this week.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: And this is the chalk version of for sure, that's
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: when my dad took it. It's like, are you really
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 2: gonna where else do you want?
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 3: Speed?
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: But if he continue again, it's just it's hard to
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 2: do this these days because like the name value is there,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: but it's like, then you don't think you're gonna use
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 2: them at anything else. I don't disagree with stat on that.
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 2: You know, you gotta remember Bobby Mack. You can play
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: at like the Scottish Open. You can play at the
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: different events too, even if it's not so, there's other
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 2: places you can use guys and I and again back
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 2: to the strategy for a second, I still think you
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: don't want to erase the fact of like is there
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: a tournament somebody's going to be in signature or not
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: that I'm fine with the I'm still gonna want them
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: in that field strength versus the current field strength that
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: they gotta go up against. I'm still factoring that in
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: as well, go ahead.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah. So the Speed answer to that question, I think
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 3: is an even more interesting one because he might be
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 3: like twenty percent on in one and done, he's at
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 3: two point three percent to win. So two point three
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: percent verse one percent, twenty percent versus point five percent.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: And the thing is like, sometimes you and I are
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 3: gonna say someone they're contrarian because we said it, the
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 3: ownership's gonna come up. I don't think that's gonna happen
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 3: with Novak. I think most people are hearing me say
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 3: Novak for when and done and they say, all right, well,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 3: he's crazy. I'm not doing that this week. And frankly,
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: if you're doing well, you shouldn't be considering Novak. You
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 3: should be considering someone like Speed, where the ownership doesn't
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 3: mean much to you because most of the people are
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 3: using him are already well behind you. So if you're
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 3: doing well, don't use Novak. If you're doing poorly, let's
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: let's not make Novak three percent here five percent. Let's
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 3: keep him one percent or below. But I think that
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: it's to me, it's less about like actually playing Novak,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: and it's more about the idea of being okay with
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 3: someone that contrarian, someone that you think is you know
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: it has a one percent chance of winning, but is
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 3: being owned like he doesn't have anywhere close to that
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 3: compared to it. Because the better players in this field,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: like the I think this is probably the more important
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 3: point that I'm making. The better players in this field,
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 3: It's not like they have a ten percent chance to
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: win or a fifteen percent chance to win. They have
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: a two percent chance to win. Yeah, three percent at best,
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: So keep those percentages in mind when you make your picks.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: And I think that can at least help understand why
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 3: I'm okay with being so contrarian.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: And it also something to add too, is like a
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: mimou this could have been made the exact It's just
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: why you can I'm good with this stat like you're saying,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: but it's also noting like again, what fields is going
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: to get? You don't know, Like Jordan could be the
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 2: top of the field in the John Deere this year
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: and it's the same amount of money. It's a way
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: weaker field. It's you know, anything can happen. I'm just like, again,
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: it's all how you see it. Mid Wu. We could
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: have said let's save him for the three m or
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: the whatever it is the Rocket Mortgage Classic now they
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: call it it's or it's just the Rocket Classic or whatever.
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 2: Like it's technically probably an easier field than last week,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 2: but it's like, yeah, it's it's gotta just fit your mold.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: Like we talk about our lane and we'll talk about
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: ours in a second for the Blurrow Texas open, but
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: just noting it. That's kind of how I would think
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: about it. A guys like McNeely, norin Speeth whoever else
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: you want to fit into that, that that you feel
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: fits that mold. I think are all fine depending on
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: where you stand. But but if you want to go
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: down the board, I'm fine. Then we do have a
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 2: little bit of narrative street now that leverage lane is
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: wrapping up, but narrative street on Novak. It's his birthday week,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 2: so maybe that's something to go off of as well.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: And we talked about yesterday.
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 3: But betting I already forgot about that, and now I
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: want to change my pick. I don't I don't want
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 3: the birthday guy.
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: Oh come on, you got you gotta say that. Isn't
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: he your betting betting segment too? We we got him
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: had a really good number yesterday. I'm not sure what.
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: He's down to now, but at you to one in
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 3: the bet three six five each way one fifth odds
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 3: for three spots.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it was solid. I think I took I think
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: it was like, man, I'll have to look it up anyway,
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: I took more places than you for like a still
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: pretty good number. But I know you guys have broken
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: that stuff down. I just was, I don't know if
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: I have full faith in it, but I was like,
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: you know what, I'm not gonna miss out. I kind
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 2: of like this one. I rarely bet if it is
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: it's like a tail or something small, and I think
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: I put like forty bucks to win two thousand or something. Yeah,
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: it was. It was eighty to one with eight places,
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: and I just said, you know what, I'm gonna I'm
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: gonna be in on this, but I don't know if
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 2: he's gonna hit the top of the board. So yeah,
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: I think good on that. Anything else you want to
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: talk about it? If not go into your lane for
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: this week?
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: Oh man, what is my lane this week? I'm gonna
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: go with what I hope is going to be my lane,
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: but it's it's a little bit too early to tell
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: if the ownership is going to be significant enough to
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: put me in the dis direction. But my leverage lane
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 3: is going to be to hammer the eight k range
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 3: because because as we talked about earlier, like I just
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 3: see so much ownership going to Henley see Wu Hitdecki,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: mav McNeely. Fowler is in the eight k range, but
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: there are enough guys around him that I really like
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 3: that he can be a part of this group that
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 3: is super owned and that it's just part of this
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: group that's like starting so many lineups and the eight
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: k range just once again it seems like it's gonna
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 3: slip through the cracks, and so there are a lot
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 3: of good players. Part of it, I think too, by
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: the way, is the fact that people are recognizing that
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 3: this is less of a distance demanding course, and so
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 3: they're coming off of guys like thorp Bjornson and Keith Mitchell.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 3: But these guys are also still accurate off the team
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: and the rest of their game is still solid. So
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 3: I really like thorp Bjornson, Spawn Mitchell, Danny McCarthy, Keifer,
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: Nick Taylor. This eight k range seems like it's full
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 3: of guys who are under owned, not because the field
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 3: doesn't think that they're good plays, but because the field
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 3: is just so gung ho about the nine K range
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: and the roster construction is just going to lead people
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 3: away from this range, so they if that continues, If
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 3: that trend continues and we and we see you know
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 3: that continue through the final ownership update tonight, then for
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 3: any ft and subscribers who have the GPPs course, you're
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: going to see great GPP scurse and like all of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: those guys that I just mentioned, and so really really
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 3: hoping that that's the case, because I think that will
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: lead to some really strong limps. We're not only am
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 3: I getting some separators from some of the better players
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 3: in the field, but I'm also saving enough money that
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 3: the weakest link in my lineup is going to be strong.
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: So I would love for this to be the case.
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 3: If it's not, then we'll have to find some other strategy.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: But at the moment, I'm hopeful that that's going to
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 3: be the case, and that that's going to be a
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: really strong way to build this week.
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: I think you're gonna get away with it no matter what,
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: because at the end of the day, it's just like
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 2: it's the way it sets up, the nine K's just
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 2: can't go away. The scott you know, the Tommy's and
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: the Ludwigs, and those guys get some even if people say, oh,
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: I don't think you're right. They're gonna be a little
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: lower than you think. Fine, but there's still at a
• 1:13:55
  Speaker 2: host Like even if you drop them to the fifteen
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: to twenty band and say like that range instead, it's like, fine,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: but that's still a lot. And then that just means
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: probably more people went to the Nines because remember those
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: are the most expensive guys on the slate. That doesn't
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 2: just leak down into the EIDs. That means people have
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 2: decided that the Nines are even better than they're currently deciding,
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: and now that means even more on them. And we
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 2: know a high percentage of people spend the majority of
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 2: their salaries so at all times.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick, you just made an awesome point that
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: I think we probably could have done a better job
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: vocalizing to this point. Like, what we're seeing with DraftKings
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: pricing so far this year is the ability to build
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: quote unquote balanced lineups using some of the more expensive
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 3: players on the slate. And so when we've talked about
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 3: like why is this the case? Why are we getting
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: so many weeks where all the ownership is concentrated on
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: up top. That's why. It's because we're building. It's because
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: the field is able to build balanced lineups with the
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: most expensive plays in the slate. It's like studz and
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 3: duds almost doesn't even exist with the current pricing. And
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 3: so I really like the way you put that in.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 3: And I think that that was just like a way
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 3: of communicating the thought that's going to register with people.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that. I like Jordan's comment here is
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: let me talk about birthdays. Every year on my birthday,
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 2: I play DFS and I never win anything. Don't think
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: it matters much. Sometimes it's because I've learned this myself.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: I know a lot of people say this. They win
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: on other people's days, like you know, like on my
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 2: daughter's birthday. I've had good luck on my my son's birthday,
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: my wife's birthday, things like that. It's like your own stuff,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: like or like life events. In some cases, maybe not
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: your own because there's like pressure of like you have
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: to like go these places. People are dragging you everywhere
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: and whatever and for you. But when it's for others
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: I find like, if your mind is off of it,
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: you sometimes have a more clear mind and you're not
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: like over analyzing or paralysis by analysis or all that stuff,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 2: and sometimes you just follow if you have a process.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it'd be nice if you had one,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: But if you have your own process and you can
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 2: just follow it without all the extra noise, sometimes that's helpful.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: So I thought that was a good call, and my
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: piece on this go collect would just be I actually
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 2: don't care where you sit. I think this is a
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: huge This is what I'm saying. I'm learning, and I'm
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: not saying I'm right either. I'm just telling you the
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: way it sets up right now. I don't think anyone
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: is ahead. I don't think anyone is behind sides what
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 2: the board physically says right now. Yes, if you're in
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 2: one thousand, three hundred ninety eighth place, you are one thousand,
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: threehundred ninety seven places behind first right now. But go
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 2: look at dfs. We see lineups that are in first
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 2: play a Sunday, finish outside the top thousand. We see
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: lineups that are in a thousand on Saturday, climb to
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 2: first on Sunday and win like, oh, you should have
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: came out of nowhere this this and this happened. It's like,
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: I think it's the seasons barely started. I know there's
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: Ben Siggi's and all this stuff and saying you can
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 2: get it back in two events right now and be
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 2: and be right there, so tons to I think to.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 3: That point, it's this is this is back to one
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: and done. For anyone who's a little bit confused about
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 3: this conversation, when you're trying to figure out where you
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 3: sit in one and done, don't just look at what
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 3: place you're in, look at how far behind are you
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 3: money wise to like, not even necessarily first place, because
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 3: first place might be an outlier, but how far behind
• 1:16:50
  Speaker 3: are you to the cash line and to you know,
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 3: the top one percent or the top ten percent of lineups,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: things of that nature. And that'll just give you a
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 3: sense of, oh, I'm one single sure event win behind.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 3: I don't need to be that contrarian. If you're more
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 3: than that, like we are, then maybe you do need
• 1:17:07
  Speaker 3: to be a little bit more concrian, but yes, but
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 3: to your point, like, it's still early in the season.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 3: Even if you're too signature event wins behind there's still
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: plenty of time to actually get those and make those up.
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it also matters too if you're like comparing it
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: to where it originated from and like NFL like or
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 2: like at least they're similar. I actually don't know like
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: the chicken or the egg story on this, but the
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 2: NFL Survivor is obviously massive and like it's kind of
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: brought in with that kind of component people like play
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 2: the best teams in the start of the season, And
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: this is early for this in golf because we're still
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 2: it's gonna start soon with like we just had the players.
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 2: Now I get the Masters and so on, and it's over.
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: But what I'm saying is you could be past the
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: first Major and then have all the same but you got,
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 2: you know, murders Row lined up ready to go, versus
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 2: somebody else is like in really good shape and they're
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 2: beating you on the leader board, but they're like, damn,
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 2: who am I gonna play at the US Open? Now
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: I already used X, Y and Z, or I only
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: have one out to this guy or something like that,
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: and you've got three to four. It's all about what
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: you have left as well. In NFL Survivor, people get
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: far in NFL Survivor and be like, oh, I'm just
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 2: as far as you are. And I'm like, buddy, I
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: got five of the best teams left in the best
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: matchups going, you've burned all five of those teams. I'm
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 2: actually way further ahead even though we're currently in the
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 2: same place. If you don't apply that theory as well. Again,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean it will happen, doesn't mean it's right, but
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: I mean that's obviously something you set up to work
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 2: in your favor. And that's why sometimes taking the risk
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 2: early to be alive, to be able to survive when
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: it actually matters down the road when the money's on
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: the line and the ev increases, is worth more than like,
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: oh but I made it to week ten, Okay, you
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 2: have nothing left now. In golf, it can be similar
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: as well. So my lean and symbol, I said it
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 2: early off the top, you gave it away, but it
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: was good. This is definitely somewhere that I'm stacking. I
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 2: actually love what I was waiting to see and I
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 2: got it was the way the board set up with
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 2: the tea times and it's like if you just use
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: nine K and above there's four guys in the morning,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: there's five in the afternoon. It's like perfect for that.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: You go to the eight K range five guys and
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 2: five guys it's split. So it's like, I actually love
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: this week because it has If we get the weather great,
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: I actually don't care. It looks pretty equal both days.
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 2: It's Texas, it's wind, it's crazy. There's always a battle,
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: but we've often seen splits, and when my lineups are
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: built within them, there's definitely gonna be guys that come
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: from both sides and people say, well, you didn't need
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: that or whatever. You know, you know, everyone had this
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 2: one all mixed as well. But I'm saying it just
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: lumps you into that that if we do get that angle,
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: you not only have lineups that go together for a
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: reason like that, but you have lineups that are so
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: unique to the chalk. And now let me give you
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 2: a quick example and then we'll get out of here.
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: If Speeth Henley, let's use Ludwig, Denny, Mitchell, Harmon, whoever
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 2: people are on that fit these lineups, Johnny Keith for
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 2: all the whatever it is, all these guys that have
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: ownership that are in the afternoon, well, if you play
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: those guys. It's like they're gonna be popular, but not
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: all together. But you would be leaving out Fleetwood, see Woo, McNeely, Hideki, Noririn, Ricky,
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 2: rio Yella thor all the top guys. So it's like,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: you know, it's like Alex always says that, you know,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: I said, it's not who you play, it's how you
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: play them. That's true, but it's also you know, it's
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: not just about who you're playing, it's who you're not playing.
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: You're avoiding so many super high on guys. Like there's
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 2: way more ownership or high value in projection sets right
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: now in the AM guys. People if you look at
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 2: like sort of get my value, you will see McNeely, Bez, Wou, Fowler,
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: ad d C, like all these guys in the morning, Meisner, Hideki,
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 2: they're all in the morning. So like your AM lineups
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: should come together nicely if you're going that route. But
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely gonna be building both sides in the one
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: fifty set and then in the main lineups. You can
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: see what you like best or go from there, but
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: I like building from that angle, and I had the
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 2: reminder of my phone that sort of every year that's
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: kind of how you want to build at this tournament.
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 2: The other thing I'll add is like a bonus here
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: and a caveat that was in the note as well.
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: We didn't get it this year. I wish we did,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: but there's only two guys in the ten k's. But
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 2: it's just basically been a thing at Valerio Texas Open
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: in the past that, like the ten k is just
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: it's just the odds inflation. Like if you look like Fleetwood, yeah,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: playing great, you'll playing good enough flute big player, but
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: like you don't. There's nothing saying that they're the winners here,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: like you said earlier, the winequity, like, there's nothing that
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 2: much different about them in the nine k, meaning you
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: don't have to max out your salary on that. You
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: could build like your best Tommy Fleetwood lineup and then
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: just take Tommy down to a very popular speak if
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: you wanted, and now you'd have the Tommy build, but
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 2: speak over Tommy, and that would get you a more
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: unique speed lineup and allow you to get away with
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 2: a more popular speeth play. So there's things like that
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 2: that you can do as well, a lot of good
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 2: optimizers and contest sims and things like that will find
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 2: those for you as well. You see it in baseball
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 2: speaking of that, where you get like two stacks, it
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: leaves three thousand bucks on the table, but it's like, man,
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 2: that is the perfect stacks with these two really good pitchers.
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 2: But most people would never leave twenty eight hundred or
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: three grand. But it just fits. It's amazing if it works.
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 3: I like the way that you put it a little
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: bit earlier when you're just talking about like the split
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 3: between how many guys are in each wave, because thing
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 3: of it this way. Let's say that you know that
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: your lineup, you're trying to get two nine k guys.
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 3: The likelihood that you get the correct two guys there
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 3: are nine guys over nine thousand dollars or nine thousand
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: or above, so it's two out of nine. Well, if
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 3: you're just choosing from a wave, it's either two out
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: of four or two out of five. Your odds of
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: picking the right guys given your strategy, it's just higher.
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 3: So I think like one of the over or one
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 3: of the underrated types of things that you can do
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 3: in DFS when you're building lineups. It's just make things
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 3: a little bit easier on yourself make it easier for
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: you to get the right guys given your strategy, and
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: so you know, simplifying to a wave is always a
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: good idea. And then you just have to hope to
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 3: get lucky that the wave advantage actually comes to a
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: fruition in your favor. But getting lucky's part of any
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: DFS win, so it can it can be a good
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 3: part of you know, your your wave stack.
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and they can all be like twelve percent on guys.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: Like I talked my two tickets that I won the season,
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 2: the big ones, we're both with similings. The North Course
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: set up with nobody over fifteen percent and then the
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: AMPM when everyone was on the opposite side or the
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: majority were on the opposite side, and it was like
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: I still had everyone from twelve to fifteen percent in
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: that lineup. It's like it all still came together, but
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: nobody really landed on that and it wasn't necessarily gonna
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: win all of the money. But it plays really well
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: in a lot of these spots where it's like you
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: don't need to be perfect in those spots, but if
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: you are, you get even more on top of that.
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: But it can really work in your favor, So hopefully
• 1:23:45
  Speaker 2: that helps some people out there when you're trying to
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: build or just thinking about it. For this week, Alex,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 2: let everybody know where they can find you. What else
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: you have going on already previewed For next week? I
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: know we got the Masters Show with Mayo, who's texting
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 2: me throughout this. We're gonna be on that, and then
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: Wednesday we'll be back at ten thirty am Eastern for
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 2: the Master's Show for Average Lane, and that's a fun one.
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: All of them are fun, but that one, to me
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: is so much wrong because the pricing has been out
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: for so long. It's the most course history of all
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: course history courses, even though it's something I normally never say,
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: but we know that for the Masters it's quite true.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: So I'm excited to go through that and really break
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: down what the chalk build looks like and then how
• 1:24:15
  Speaker 2: we can take advantage of it. But let the people
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 2: know where they can find you for everything got going on.
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 3: It's kind of fun. Like we all know that the
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 3: NFL season is like the height of DFS season, but
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 3: this time of year is freaking awesome for DFS and
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 3: for Props and Pickham because we got baseball, golf, Golf
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 3: is like literally in the most exciting part of the
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 3: year coming into Master season. Baseball is just starting, NBA
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 3: is about to reach the playoffs. This is an awesome
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 3: time of year. Props and pick them has been spectacular.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 3: We just had an NBA three pick hit and an
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 3: MLB hit last week or last night, I should say
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 3: not last week Elver in the discord, So check it
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 3: out at alex Plicka one on Twitter. You can find
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 3: all the FTN stuff and my discord there. Continuing to
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 3: do really really cool stuff in and pick Them and
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 3: some really like cool cunning edge research that I've started
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 3: to do for MLBDFS that I think anyone out there
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 3: who's really interested in just DFS theory and trying to
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 3: find some edges that not the whole industry is on,
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 3: you'll enjoy what you see inside my discord.
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm in there. I think it's a lot of
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: fun going through it and back and forth on it.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: Like everyone's you know, sort of into their own stuff,
• 1:25:20
  Speaker 2: and that's what I like. It's different, but you you know,
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: you can actually get some different angles of attack and
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: some different ideas to bring to the forefront. Of course,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: if you guys do want to check out ship at
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: nation dot com. We've got the Masters promo on that
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: includes Sabersim and the rest of the entire season for
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: three forty nine. But we also simplified the joint options
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: so if you just click join, it's very simple. There
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 2: is a five day trial for nineteen dollars. You've seen
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: it on the screen the entire time. It's five days
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: all access with Core, discord everything. Try out all the sports.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: Like you said, we've got NBA, we've got MLB, we've
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: got MMA. I mean different weeks are on different breaks,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: like NASCAR, NHL, different things. But PGA Projection showdown all
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: the stuff that goes with at the Stone tool that
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 2: I talked to and more. If you want all access,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 2: it's built in. There's different packages. You can see how
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: those break down at the bottom all the differences between
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: what comes with each package. And then the other nice
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 2: thing is if you want single sport, you say I
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: just want PGA only, you can get monthly, you can
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: get annual, and you can get a deal right up
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: to including Rick run good stuff with just Sabersim, with
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: both or without either, and just get PGA only better
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 2: deals on the annual as well. All right, it's gonna
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 2: do it for this one, guys. Hopefully it was helpful.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: We appreciate you as always excited for a big, big
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 2: week ahead at the Valero Texas open for alex for myself,
• 1:26:32
  Speaker 2: to Tag and Tambo. Good luck this week and led Ship.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 1: It still