Latest / Kinesis Money / Is the Stock Market Running Out of Road? Ft. Ted Oakley - LFTV Ep 272
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_02: The only really long, long-term money that's held its value has been gold.
- 0:06SPEAKER_02: You can go back a couple thousands of years.
- 0:18SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Life from the Vault.
- 0:24SPEAKER_01: Welcome to Life from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
- 0:28SPEAKER_01: Now, this is the show that goes beyond the headlines to uncover the truth about the gold and silver markets with world-renowned whistleblower and industry expert Andrew McGuire.
- 0:38SPEAKER_01: And this week he's joined in the vault by a brand new uh first-time special featured guest.
- 0:46SPEAKER_01: Yes, we're talking Ted Oakley with Oxbow Advisors.
- 0:50SPEAKER_01: You'll get to meet him right here in a few minutes.
- 0:52SPEAKER_01: And we're talking gold, we're talking silver.
- 0:55SPEAKER_01: You're just not gonna want to miss this conversation.
- 0:58SPEAKER_01: So let's head over to the UK and join Andrew Maguire and our featured guest, Mr.
- 1:04SPEAKER_01: Ted Oakley.
- 1:05SPEAKER_01: Over to you, Andrew.
- 1:08SPEAKER_00: Thanks, uh Shane, and thank you, Ted, for joining us.
- 1:11SPEAKER_00: This is um this is great for us today because um we've been uh obviously I've been following you for a long time.
- 1:17SPEAKER_00: You're on all the mainstream media, you're you're pretty much everywhere.
- 1:22SPEAKER_00: What does it say?
- 1:22SPEAKER_00: They say Ted Talks.
- 1:24SPEAKER_00: Is that is that what it is?
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: That's your hang.
- 1:26SPEAKER_00: I wish.
- 1:27SPEAKER_00: If not, and that's yeah, I wish it was.
- 1:30SPEAKER_00: Yeah, well then we we best listen then.
- 1:33SPEAKER_00: That's the thing.
- 1:34SPEAKER_00: Um, and obviously, you know, as I say, we're we're we're kind of focused very much on the precious metals, the the real assets, and all the stuff that, but but really what's so important to follow the cross is everything that interacts with that and that makes you that way who you make your decisions on so many of these inputs and how they all correlate together.
- 1:57SPEAKER_00: And that's a that's a tough job.
- 1:59SPEAKER_00: So um, and I know can we start with the psychology of staying rich?
- 2:04SPEAKER_00: And it seemed to kind of echo uh what you're currently uh calling a prioritizing, which is I think very much about capital preservation um uh versus chasing highs, etc.
- 2:20SPEAKER_00: Um, so could could you tell us there's a lot to unpick, um Ted.
- 2:24SPEAKER_00: Can we start maybe there and and see what what do you see?
- 2:28SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, Andy, uh we've we buy single stocks and single bonds, and but what we look at is really the the valuations of a lot of things in the marketplace.
- 2:40SPEAKER_02: And I have to tell you, most of them are very expensive, too expensive for us to buy.
- 2:46SPEAKER_02: Not everything.
- 2:46SPEAKER_02: I mean, we own things, but uh I think I think what's happening is that uh people have gotten so caught up in just buying the averages, buying the SP, they forgot about valuation.
- 3:00SPEAKER_02: And I know uh I I I I think in general, after this last 15 years, you know, it's sort of a situation where uh they can't go wrong.
- 3:10SPEAKER_02: In other words, it don't last very long, so they just dive back in.
- 3:13SPEAKER_02: And we're probably we're really at the highest point ever, uh, at least in the US, for people for households that own stocks.
- 3:21SPEAKER_02: They didn't they own more stocks now than they've ever since we've been keeping records.
- 3:25SPEAKER_02: So I know they're all in, you know, and actually on a worldwide basis they're all in too, because if you look at uh MSCI and all those sorts of things, the US is about 63% of it.
- 3:36SPEAKER_02: So it's it's uh it's very expensive.
- 3:39SPEAKER_02: And I think you just have to be very particular about what you own.
- 3:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and I think um what amazed me um through it all is the um is there there's the stock market making higher and higher highs through this entire war fog that that we've seen, all this volatility.
- 3:58SPEAKER_00: And yet we're seeing, we're seeing, as you say, every dip getting bored.
- 4:03SPEAKER_00: And as you say, is it retail that's buying these dips or or who is it?
- 4:07SPEAKER_02: Well, it's a lot of retail.
- 4:08SPEAKER_02: We've had more retail in the market today than we've ever had in the marketplace, and and and they're and they're used to buying these things and come off a little bit and they go back to a new high.
- 4:20SPEAKER_02: You know, they're really not really thinking, Andy, about the macro look or anything.
- 4:25SPEAKER_02: I don't think they uh really realize what, you know, again, uh anything about valuation, so they just buy it.
- 4:32SPEAKER_02: And uh, and we're we're seeing that all the way around, really a lot of speculation, just a tremendous amount of speculation.
- 4:40SPEAKER_02: And so it's not surprising that they didn't think nothing can go wrong.
- 4:46SPEAKER_02: But eventually, you know, I've been in this situation before.
- 4:48SPEAKER_02: I remembered uh 19, I've been around a long time, probably longer than most people, but I 1996 to uh 2000, you know, by the time we got to 98, I thought, gosh, this thing's expensive.
- 5:01SPEAKER_02: Well, it got more expensive, and uh, and we were sort of a fish out of water by the time we got to the end of 99.
- 5:08SPEAKER_02: However, it really paid off for us because we did well the next three years when everybody else was just really getting smashed.
- 5:16SPEAKER_02: But uh, I think you have to hold to your principles, and I don't think a lot of investors they have any principles.
- 5:22SPEAKER_02: I think they just they just buy it and they don't even really think about it.
- 5:26SPEAKER_00: Well, I guess I guess if you're um if you're uh uh in the game and your colleagues and your competitors uh are buying the dip and and and and you don't and you're wrong, you probably get fired.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: Um so so and and and but what it gets me is as you say, you've been around a long time, and and um and I and I look back and I see also uh a lot of these guys that I speak to on the desks, they haven't been around very long.
- 6:00SPEAKER_00: And and they haven't seen any of that.
- 6:02SPEAKER_00: What you're just talking about, they haven't seen any of that.
- 6:04SPEAKER_00: They just figure you just keep buying it, it's fine.
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: Just keep buying it because look, it works every time.
- 6:10SPEAKER_00: And as long as they've been in it, it's worked.
- 6:13SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, statistically, and I've got a pretty good statistic on this about 46 or 47 percent of the people in the industry today have only been around since 2009 or 10.
- 6:26SPEAKER_02: And that just tells you that they've never been through any really particularly true bear markets.
- 6:31SPEAKER_02: Bear markets last long, or you know, they're they really take you apart.
- 6:35SPEAKER_02: Um, and so they they've never seen that, and really never seen until recently uh interest rates go up.
- 6:42SPEAKER_02: And so they're all sort of caught up in this uh Goldilocks, but but uh things change over over time, you know, things change.
- 6:50SPEAKER_02: I think we're making some significant changes in the marketplace today.
- 6:54SPEAKER_02: I think we're I think it's gonna be more commodity-based the next 10 years, and I think a lot of those kinds of people will miss that because they don't see it coming.
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I was listening to um Jeff Curry uh recently on Bloomberg, he's all over Bloomberg at the moment, talk about halos.
- 7:10SPEAKER_00: Um, and and and and it really, I mean, that to me sounds like a really excellent um uh place to be um uh in at this time.
- 7:22SPEAKER_02: Well, Jeff's a really bright guy.
- 7:24SPEAKER_02: He's written some really good stuff, and uh if I you probably can correct me on this, Andy, but I think it's is it hard assets, light something?
- 7:31SPEAKER_02: I mean it is for.
- 7:34SPEAKER_02: But anyway, he's got a uh he's he's very well be, of course, he's been around, he was a Goldman 20 years.
- 7:40SPEAKER_02: He's a great guy.
- 7:41SPEAKER_02: Um great stuff he talks about.
- 7:43SPEAKER_02: I think he's right though, and people are not ready for it.
- 7:46SPEAKER_02: If you look at ownership today, uh just any sorts of commodities, in most accounts, they have very little or zero.
- 7:55SPEAKER_02: And um, that leaves you a lot of room to the upside if if things change.
- 8:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I guess I guess what he he's he defines it as as heavy as it's low obsolescence.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: Yes, there it is.
- 8:07SPEAKER_02: It's kind of what you I know he uses that term all the time, and and uh you know he uh he's written a lot, a great deal about oil, which I agree with him on.
- 8:17SPEAKER_02: We're we're heavy in energy.
- 8:19SPEAKER_02: So um obviously I like what he says, but I think he's right.
- 8:24SPEAKER_00: And and speaking about oil, that what what puzzles me here is that everyone seems to expect, think, oh look, hey, um the it's the war's gonna get settled, uh oil's gonna come back down, um, which ultimately it will.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: Um but but I think what what confuses me is is that is that it won't it take a long time for for it to balance that to balance the supply um demand sort of uh I mean isn't there not I guess really what I'm getting at is with it is there not inflationary pressures yet to flow in?
- 9:03SPEAKER_02: What they miss on oil is that uh, and we we thought it would go up no matter whether it was a war or not, because we started owning oil a lot in the last two years.
- 9:12SPEAKER_02: And I think people didn't realize they were the most undervalued they'd been in a long, long time.
- 9:17SPEAKER_02: High cash flows, great dividends, everything that you wanted really in a stock.
- 9:23SPEAKER_02: Uh and I think people now are thinking, oh gosh, you know, we'll go right back to$50 oil or something, 60.
- 9:29SPEAKER_02: But we really don't have a glut.
- 9:30SPEAKER_02: I mean, we may have a a little bit, uh, if all this were to clear up, but by and large, you know, everybody's gonna be pretty much fulling in, fully producing.
- 9:41SPEAKER_02: And uh, and I think people have forgotten how much oil is used, not just not in driving, but in every other product, every product.
- 9:52SPEAKER_02: And I think that's the thing that happens on that.
- 9:55SPEAKER_00: And would this, what what effect would this place on on treasuries?
- 9:58SPEAKER_00: It's sort of this inflationary uh import that where we really do expect the oil prices, as you say to say, elevated, which is not what was anticipated, other than yourself and maybe some other people, very few people were expecting it.
- 10:14SPEAKER_02: Well, we've said for a number of years now that you cannot own the long-term treasuries.
- 10:19SPEAKER_02: Um I think what's throwing the Federal Reserve right here is they, yes, they can control zero to two years, but they can't control 20, 25, 30-year paper.
- 10:31SPEAKER_02: They yesterday, you know, we got over 5% on the 30-year U.S.
- 10:35SPEAKER_02: Treasury.
- 10:36SPEAKER_02: Um, and I think that's what throws them a bit because if inflation's really there, they cannot control that long end of that bond market.
- 10:45SPEAKER_02: And I think that's where people are making mistakes.
- 10:48SPEAKER_02: If you look at the 30-year bond, they had a new low for basically the last since 20 yesterday.
- 10:54SPEAKER_02: I mean, people have but generally, and we looked this back, I looked at David War yesterday with my chief investment officer.
- 11:01SPEAKER_02: And if you look at the 10-year bond, the 10-year U.S.
- 11:04SPEAKER_02: government, the seven-year return is zero.
- 11:08SPEAKER_02: But yet people still, they still go into the long paper.
- 11:11SPEAKER_02: I don't know why, you know, but they do.
- 11:14SPEAKER_00: So, so uh the way I would look at uh, or the way I understand just by looking at uh some of the things you talk about, uh I guess your portfolio would be um right now heavy cash, treasuries, hard assets, and then you talk about selected equities.
- 11:32SPEAKER_00: Um can I drill into that a second?
- 11:34SPEAKER_00: What what what what do you mean by selected equity equities?
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: What would you actually be looking for here?
- 11:40SPEAKER_02: Well, we run two different strategies.
- 11:42SPEAKER_02: We won uh three really, but we have one that's called conservative income, and it's it's very conservative.
- 11:49SPEAKER_02: All maturities are less than 48 months.
- 11:51SPEAKER_02: I mean, it's just you know, it always makes some money.
- 11:54SPEAKER_02: It's not as much as sometimes, but it does well.
- 11:58SPEAKER_02: It carries about, it really carries a lot of treasuries, about 5% gold.
- 12:03SPEAKER_02: And it then at the other end, we have an all-stock portfolio.
- 12:06SPEAKER_02: And when we're looking at a stock, Andy, we look at a company that's usually gone down to a level to where if we we've got about 400 companies on a screen that we look at that we wouldn't mind owning, but uh they we look at what they can do over the next five years, and first what we think they can earn, and we try to we just basically present value that, and then we try to buy it about 20% less than that.
- 12:33SPEAKER_02: So um we don't have many that go uh go negative on us for that reason.
- 12:39SPEAKER_02: We have some that don't do what we expect, but generally that's what we're looking for in companies.
- 12:44SPEAKER_02: Now, right now, the only company it's odd, odd sets of companies that fill that category.
- 12:50SPEAKER_02: Um, you know, give you give an example.
- 12:53SPEAKER_02: You know, we just bought Hershey food.
- 12:55SPEAKER_02: Now, Hershey hasn't been a buy for us in a long, long time, but chocolate went way down.
- 13:01SPEAKER_02: And so they're able to really make a lot more money, pay a pretty good dividend, you know, on top of that.
- 13:07SPEAKER_02: We own uh we own a lot well bottle of a company called Ulta Beauty, which is uh all the women know that in this country because they you know they go shop with them because they're a wholesaler and a retailer, got really cheap, you know.
- 13:21SPEAKER_02: Um things like that.
- 13:22SPEAKER_02: You know, Gilden is a big t-shirt maker.
- 13:25SPEAKER_02: So we're not, you know what, we own, uh don't get me wrong now.
- 13:28SPEAKER_02: We own some Google, you know, and we own some Amazon, but we're not stacked into Nvidia and that kind of stock.
- 13:35SPEAKER_02: Those companies are really, really expensive.
- 13:38SPEAKER_02: And then we own uh quite a bit of energy.
- 13:41SPEAKER_02: And then one of our uh strategy where we own the commodities, and we own every almost every commodity in there.
- 13:48SPEAKER_02: We own fertilizer, we own tungsten, we own, we own um all sorts of critical minerals.
- 13:54SPEAKER_02: We own, we own iron, we own miners.
- 13:57SPEAKER_02: Um and I think I've I've that's that's probably done the best for us over the last year and a half, and we get a lot of energy.
- 14:05SPEAKER_02: Uh, and it's called a high income account because we search for things that pay a lot of cash flow out to the investor, never its dividends and interest.
- 14:14SPEAKER_02: But between the three of them, they all, you know, if you look at them, on average, we have about 45% right now, and and treasuries that are you know less than 15, 18 months or less.
- 14:27SPEAKER_02: Uh, if we found things we like, we're good, we'd buy them.
- 14:30SPEAKER_02: But you know, oddly enough, last year um we did almost as well as a star as the SP with a lot of treasuries.
- 14:40SPEAKER_02: And uh again, it comes back to what you own.
- 14:44SPEAKER_02: But uh that's makes us comfortable in that you know, we can find the right things, we're okay.
- 14:51SPEAKER_02: Uh sometimes they don't work, you know, but we take them out if they do.
- 14:54SPEAKER_02: But that's generally where our portfolios are.
- 14:57SPEAKER_02: Um, but we're we're in all of all all two of the three, we're certainly pretty big in energy.
- 15:05SPEAKER_00: And so what you're describing to me then is you're talking about hard assets, you're talking about gold, silver, miners, energy commodities.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: I mean, so this would be your way of hedging uh currency debasement.
- 15:19SPEAKER_00: Is is really that one of the main drivers for you to uh invest in that kind of uh Well, I I think so.
- 15:26SPEAKER_02: You know, like we never uh now I'll give you an example.
- 15:29SPEAKER_02: Yeah, the very, very last week of 25, first week of 26, we cut back on our gold miners.
- 15:36SPEAKER_02: We really felt like they were too expensive.
- 15:38SPEAKER_02: We sold all our silver miners and and and silver, but we we don't wanna we don't ever touch the gold bullion because we feel like it's more of a current it is more of a currency, especially now.
- 15:50SPEAKER_02: I see all the foreign countries, they don't want the dollar, and they're they don't trust the U.S.
- 15:54SPEAKER_02: anyway.
- 15:55SPEAKER_02: So they're like, hey, I've got to buy something else.
- 15:58SPEAKER_02: And I don't blame them, I mean, for what they're thinking, but um, but I think you have to have gold in in that respect.
- 16:05SPEAKER_02: And you know, it these miners have had a setback, but they're getting close, they're getting close to where we'll add, we didn't get out of them totally, but we're getting close to the point where we'll add them back because they're all down about 30 percent.
- 16:19SPEAKER_02: Um great cash flow, so you're gonna make a lot of money this year, next year.
- 16:24SPEAKER_02: So I I think people want don't I wouldn't give up on them, I'll put it that way.
- 16:28SPEAKER_00: Well, you're very good at recognizing bubbles, and and and I think um obviously gold is close to our heart.
- 16:35SPEAKER_00: And I think so so from a physical gold perspective, obviously we don't sell.
- 16:41SPEAKER_00: I mean, and and and nobody I know that we handle physical for has sold a single ounce in in all of this.
- 16:48SPEAKER_00: But when it comes to trading gold, I understand you recognized quite quickly that gold was being chased by the momentums, who control pretty much 80% of oil, gold, silver in the um derivative markets.
- 17:06SPEAKER_00: And I think you recognize that that was a bit of a bubble and they were driving it beyond fair value.
- 17:13SPEAKER_00: You got out, didn't you?
- 17:15SPEAKER_02: Well, we we like to say we didn't sell the bullyama, we sold a lot of, we sold and all the gold miners we had, we sold half the miners, okay?
- 17:23SPEAKER_02: We sold all the silver miners and um and most of the silver.
- 17:27SPEAKER_02: Just but what was happening was if you get to a point where it's in the news every day and every retail investor is going down to the nearest coin shop and buying silver and gold, you're probably close to at least a short-term high, and we felt like that's where we were.
- 17:44SPEAKER_02: You know, they've all uh sort of gone out of hibernation right now, but I think they'll come out again.
- 17:49SPEAKER_02: I mean, or it's I think we'll I think this thing will pick up steam again.
- 17:53SPEAKER_02: It's not abnormal for uh, you know, for these companies, I'm talking about these these miners to have a setback in here.
- 18:01SPEAKER_02: However, if they were to sell Andy at the same cash flow levels they sold out in 2011, they'll go up another 200% from here.
- 18:12SPEAKER_02: You know, you have to look at on a relative basis where they are, because they make a lot of money, their debt situation's much better than it's ever been.
- 18:21SPEAKER_02: And uh I think you'll start to see some merger acquisition as well.
- 18:25SPEAKER_00: That's really interesting.
- 18:26SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and and again, because there's a big difference between paper gold and physical gold.
- 18:32SPEAKER_00: And on yeah, so I think that's something that we teach a lot of people.
- 18:36SPEAKER_00: If you want to go and play in the um in the high volatile stakes, um derivative markets, be aware you're in the crosshairs because you're gonna be a small guy.
- 18:48SPEAKER_00: You're gonna, in fact, I I I've I've spoke to uh I know of one of financial analysts, he said, you know what?
- 18:55SPEAKER_00: He said, of the people it's specifically trading silver, he said of the people that trade silver, I he said probably a hundred one out one out of a hundred ever makes any money because they get picked off.
- 19:11SPEAKER_00: And and the thing is because it's it's I mean, look at look at what we've been we've been looking at.
- 19:16SPEAKER_00: Where is it used to be, oh maybe 15, 20, 30 cent moves in a day,$10 moves in a day?
- 19:23SPEAKER_00: I mean, you're talking major, major losses or gains.
- 19:28SPEAKER_00: If you're on the right side of it, that is, which you've got to be a big boy to be on the right side of that.
- 19:34SPEAKER_02: You know, Andy, uh, like I say, I've been around more than longer than most people.
- 19:38SPEAKER_02: So I watched goal in the late 70s go from very low price up around January of 80, uh, nine I'm sorry, January of uh of uh 1980 was about 850, and that was the high.
- 19:51SPEAKER_02: But here's the big thing I watched Bunker Hunt buy enough silver.
- 19:56SPEAKER_02: He kept, he really loaded up on silver at$20.
- 20:01SPEAKER_02: And I watched it go all the way to where he was the richest man in the world owning that much silver.
- 20:08SPEAKER_02: And I can't remember the number.
- 20:09SPEAKER_02: I wish I could, but it was something like six, seven, eight billion at the time, which was a lot of money then.
- 20:16SPEAKER_02: And and even doubled up and bought more when it was higher, and um and watched it ride all the way back.
- 20:26SPEAKER_02: I mean, I mean, you know, you're thinking, okay, here's a guy that knew when to buy it at the low.
- 20:31SPEAKER_02: I mean, I'm seriously, he would really at the time he had to be the richest man in the world by that time from buying that much silver.
- 20:39SPEAKER_02: But you be that's one of the things that I goal I can see owning forever.
- 20:44SPEAKER_02: But silver, I think you have to know, they have to trade it.
- 20:47SPEAKER_02: Um, and it it comes and goes, it's a little bit more industrial.
- 20:51SPEAKER_02: Uh, and and it'll go again.
- 20:53SPEAKER_02: I really believe that.
- 20:54SPEAKER_02: I think it'll go it will go again, but I think you ought to think about it and trade it if you can.
- 20:59SPEAKER_00: I think what's interesting also, we we've very, very close um uh to the Chinese um um the SGE markets, the free trade zone there.
- 21:10SPEAKER_00: Uh we've got um liquidity providers there.
- 21:13SPEAKER_00: Uh and it's it's interesting to see um that when for in order to own in order to trade uh gold or silver on that exchange, you need to first own it before you can put it up for sale.
- 21:28SPEAKER_00: And you need to so so what what's happening is I've noticed that a lot of uh uh refiners, uh producers, um, and institutional, rather institutional guys are saying, you know what, I I I I want to avoid what I all I want is a physical price.
- 21:47SPEAKER_00: And there is uh in our view, there is now sufficient liquidity, physical liquidity in the free trade zone uh um exchanges uh to actually f bring in That kind of open interest, so to speak.
- 22:04SPEAKER_00: And so if you've got a physical price for silver, for example, in particular, you've got a physical price, and it generally trades at a premium too, of course, to uh to to derivative silver, because it's physically settled and you have to own it.
- 22:20SPEAKER_00: So what's interesting is that uh slowly over time, and I think this may have influenced uh Bank of America's high target of 309, uh obviously 135 or 309, they're out of range, but is the ratio compression, because if you've got more of a physical settlement going on all the time, it kind of starts to dissolve the what we call the synthetic ratio, which is really paper, paper, paper, and silver.
- 22:51SPEAKER_00: So it's interesting.
- 22:52SPEAKER_00: I'm just thinking, watching that, that's quite an interesting dynamic.
- 22:56SPEAKER_02: Well, both silver and gold, and really all the metals, you know, they changed the way they traded, you know, not only that way, but in the future smart, everything has changed a lot.
- 23:07SPEAKER_02: Um, and it's interesting.
- 23:09SPEAKER_02: Um talking about this thing on Bunker Hunt, and one of the things that made that price go down is the commodity exchanges changed the leverage numbers.
- 23:22SPEAKER_02: They they did two or three things because it was getting too crazy.
- 23:26SPEAKER_02: This thing went nuts.
- 23:27SPEAKER_02: I mean, it went so high.
- 23:29SPEAKER_02: And as soon as they did that, that changed the game, you know.
- 23:33SPEAKER_02: So you have to watch out for those things because if they change something on you, you know, you you you you you it can affect the price, and you're not ready for it because you're not you're not thinking about it.
- 23:44SPEAKER_02: Um, I'll give you a real good example.
- 23:46SPEAKER_02: The SP 500, the S Tandem Poors, is now starting are going to let companies that do not make any money come into the S P 500.
- 23:58SPEAKER_02: They've never done that before.
- 23:59SPEAKER_02: You had to have at least four, because that's why Tesla was never in it for a long time.
- 24:03SPEAKER_02: You have to have at least four quarters of profitability.
- 24:07SPEAKER_02: Well, think about it.
- 24:08SPEAKER_02: They're gonna dump all the all the venture capital and private equity firms and that stuff.
- 24:13SPEAKER_02: And so people not thinking are gonna buy the SP 500 and not realizing I'm not getting all profitable companies now.
- 24:21SPEAKER_02: That's gonna change that game.
- 24:23SPEAKER_02: So you have to watch for those outside influences, what you're talking about, because they'll change on you.
- 24:28SPEAKER_02: And if you don't know what you're doing, you'll go as business as usual, which is not.
- 24:34SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
- 24:34SPEAKER_00: Yeah, interesting.
- 24:36SPEAKER_00: Um, now I've I've been looking at, and again, I followed a couple of your recent interviews.
- 24:41SPEAKER_00: You're talking about the um US gross national debt is knocking on the door 40 trillion.
- 24:49SPEAKER_00: My goodness me.
- 24:50SPEAKER_00: Uh I mean, what is the path out of of that?
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: Obviously, that that is a problem.
- 24:56SPEAKER_02: Well, I mean, if you go back um and and and you look, you know, they could they call this this buffet indicator where it's a debt, you know, it's it's a debt to GDP.
- 25:09SPEAKER_02: And you look at it, we're higher than 29, and we're higher than 70, we're higher than tops in the market.
- 25:17SPEAKER_02: We're we've never been this high, 200 and something percent.
- 25:21SPEAKER_02: Um, and what has to happen, what happens in those cases, one of two things has to happen.
- 25:27SPEAKER_02: Either GDP really picks up, and that would be a six or seven percent growth rate, which I do not see, or or you have to have so much inflation that you become cheaper dollars on that debt, and some of the time GDP goes up nominally, goes up, but but the debt's actually cheaper in in dollar terms then.
- 25:50SPEAKER_02: And I wouldn't be surprised that that doesn't happen because that's what happened after World War II.
- 25:56SPEAKER_02: Um, the rate of interest, the the inflation rate basically was higher than answers rates.
- 26:04SPEAKER_02: And so we look at all of a sudden, you know, my dollar's not worth as much.
- 26:08SPEAKER_02: I'm paying it off in cheap dollars.
- 26:10SPEAKER_02: I think that's one of the few outs they have.
- 26:13SPEAKER_02: I think I wouldn't be surprised that the new guy coming in has got some things up his sleeve that they wanted to exchange debt.
- 26:20SPEAKER_02: But don't be surprised.
- 26:21SPEAKER_02: They did this World War II.
- 26:23SPEAKER_02: Don't be surprised if they don't come into all the U.S.
- 26:26SPEAKER_02: pension plans and IRAs and all that sort of thing and say, hey, look, if you don't buy, if you don't buy some treasuries, then you can't maintain tax-free status and that that sort of thing.
- 26:37SPEAKER_02: Uh they'll do anything if they they have to.
- 26:39SPEAKER_02: So you that's that's just another reason to own goal, honestly.
- 26:43SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
- 26:44SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I guess really um it's so it's manageable.
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: Because I mean, if if you look at the overall, if you look at the non-funded liabilities, they're much larger, aren't they?
- 26:56SPEAKER_00: So it w how does that fit into that equation?
- 27:00SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, this this country, like a lot of countries, honestly, is broke.
- 27:05SPEAKER_02: I mean, we have assets.
- 27:07SPEAKER_02: I mean, we have a tremendous the US as a government has a tremendous amount of land and buildings.
- 27:14SPEAKER_02: I mean, they have so much land they could probably clear out a lot of debt if they sold the land, but then they don't have it.
- 27:20SPEAKER_02: And I hope they don't sell their gold.
- 27:22SPEAKER_02: But um, there's things they can do to get out of the debt and may have to, but I think the biggest thing it does is it just hinders the level of cost of living and and and the and the level of living for people where their living levels are going to be lower uh because they got to deal with this.
- 27:40SPEAKER_02: You know, we we've got a whole group of people in this country that don't think about people that don't make any money, which is about 60% of the population.
- 27:49SPEAKER_02: Um, and I I I I see that becoming a real problem.
- 27:55SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so uh the the the other thing that um again I was looking for little um uh tail risks, perhaps.
- 28:02SPEAKER_00: Um what about the um i the private credit situation uh that relates very much to what you were talking about a minute a while ago.
- 28:11SPEAKER_00: Um would you see that as a problem or well I do.
- 28:15SPEAKER_02: I'll tell you why you know I owned um I just sold the bank uh December 31 to a public company.
- 28:22SPEAKER_02: So I've been around the banking business on on the particular bank, I was on the Holy Company and the board and the loan committee, everything for 26 years.
- 28:30SPEAKER_02: But uh so I know the business, and what happens is I always ask these people in private credit, and I say, look, if you have a credit that's paying you 11.5%, but you say, hey, it's a really great credit, I say, well, why wouldn't they go to the bank and get six and three-quarters on the prime if they're so good about that?
- 28:49SPEAKER_02: So a couple things have happened.
- 28:50SPEAKER_02: That's one of the reasons we will not own the insurance companies, is because they are stacked deep in this private credit a lot.
- 28:58SPEAKER_02: You know, I mean, a whole lot.
- 28:59SPEAKER_02: Um, in addition, private credit feeds right in because a lot of private equity is financed by private credit.
- 29:07SPEAKER_02: So those two are hung in there together, and you'll probably see private credit and your CNA will really, you know, kind of mess up first, but then it then it will eventually affect private equity.
- 29:20SPEAKER_02: Neither will those, by the way, rule high on.
- 29:23SPEAKER_02: Uh, but I think that's what people are missing with those.
- 29:27SPEAKER_00: And and now that we uh looking at the at your side of the pond and and um the the the the Trump story as as as it's playing out, um, and um it's what is interesting to me is that uh he's a very strong president, uh extremely strong president.
- 29:46SPEAKER_00: So um put it this way, in the private previous administration, um there were no speeches, they they happen every day.
- 29:54SPEAKER_00: So almost you're getting an over an overload.
- 29:56SPEAKER_00: And what you what you what you see is what you get, and which is to me, uh whether you like him or not, it's irrelevant.
- 30:04SPEAKER_00: What you see is what you get.
- 30:05SPEAKER_00: And I I like the fact that um that that information is there for us to make our own minds up about him.
- 30:13SPEAKER_00: So but do you he he's currently talking about stirring the tariff put up again.
- 30:19SPEAKER_00: And they're getting pretty ups upset about it in Europe.
- 30:23SPEAKER_00: What do you see happening there?
- 30:24SPEAKER_02: Well, I I I think, you know, as personal opinion, I'm not in favor of tariffs.
- 30:29SPEAKER_02: I mean, I I think I think it what you should do for your the people in your country is you buy anything you can as cheap as you can.
- 30:36SPEAKER_02: If it's made in your country, great.
- 30:38SPEAKER_02: It's made somewhere else, that's great too.
- 30:40SPEAKER_02: Uh, but I think I think they originally started that because they could not compete with China, but that's their that's the U.S.'s fault.
- 30:48SPEAKER_02: You know, if you think about work in the U.S.
- 30:50SPEAKER_02: between the government and lawyers and everything you have in a business, that's why China can run circles around them.
- 30:56SPEAKER_02: And that's why it all got started.
- 30:58SPEAKER_02: You know, and I I I don't I don't agree with it necessarily.
- 31:01SPEAKER_02: There's been tariffs around before, but I think what it has done though, because um how would I say this?
- 31:10SPEAKER_02: He could probably use some advice on how to talk to people and uh and have a uh a little bit more of a of a of a more of a statesman demeanor.
- 31:23SPEAKER_02: And uh I think he'd have more friends in the world than he has now.
- 31:28SPEAKER_02: And the thing about the tariffs is you know, uh, a lot of that comes back to bite you.
- 31:33SPEAKER_02: You have to be careful on things like that.
- 31:35SPEAKER_02: They, you know, yeah, yeah, you can throw a tariff on, but then all of a sudden they'll work around it.
- 31:40SPEAKER_02: Things like that happen.
- 31:41SPEAKER_02: I just um I think they're a bit misguided on that.
- 31:46SPEAKER_02: And uh that I know they think they're doing the right thing, but if you look back, you know, it's it hasn't been it hasn't been all that great.
- 31:55SPEAKER_02: The only time terrorists worked, I'll be honest with you, was back in the late 1800s, early 1900s, because it didn't, at that time, you know, uh they made money off of it.
- 32:07SPEAKER_02: We didn't have much of an income tax, so they didn't they just raised money through it, but um it's totally different now.
- 32:14SPEAKER_02: So I don't know that that's gonna work for them long term.
- 32:18SPEAKER_02: Uh and they keep you know trying to get around it different ways, and I guess uh, you know, but I I think all of a sudden they're going to need a product, okay, that somebody has, particularly China, and they're gonna have to really deal with it, you know, and say, okay, let's what can we do here?
- 32:36SPEAKER_00: Well, I think you also represent um the view of a lot of that you service a lot of ultra high net worth and high net worth individuals, companies, uh, high, you know, really at a high level.
- 32:50SPEAKER_00: And I think what what's interesting having a conversation with you, uh, Ted, is that I'm getting a sense of what you what what what you talk about with them.
- 33:02SPEAKER_00: And uh obviously they follow you um and um also you advise for them.
- 33:08SPEAKER_00: I know you do because you have a uh and we'll all put up some links as well, obviously, um, for those people that follow other institutionals that want to um contact you on that basis.
- 33:20SPEAKER_00: But it's interesting to hear you because you service those kind of people um and those kind of institutions, it's interesting to hear you talk about these aspects, which confuse us a lot, to be honest, as into making, you know, decisions um around the around the uh the the what we call the crosses or the impact, the things that impact what we really trade.
- 33:45SPEAKER_02: Well, I think again, I don't I don't think they're understanding the long-term aspects.
- 33:51SPEAKER_02: In other words, you won't know much about this till about three years from now.
- 33:55SPEAKER_02: And then everything that's gonna feed through the hour prices, et cetera, you know, whatever supplies, uh, then it's going to show up.
- 34:04SPEAKER_02: And you have to rem, you know, and people forget in this country, you know, you flip this deal every four years when you have a new president come in.
- 34:12SPEAKER_02: So there's so much, you know, uh there's so many things could come in and just overnight go the other way.
- 34:18SPEAKER_02: And I I think you can invest based on that.
- 34:21SPEAKER_02: You've got to really look at the companies you own, what they've got going for them, and try to get away from uh what they're doing politically in in Washington and the world, because you know, it's it's it's not it's not gonna work that way.
- 34:36SPEAKER_00: Well, uh other than me telling everyone after my every single interview I do is is own physical gold, own physical silver.
- 34:46SPEAKER_00: Don't trade it, own it, and ultimately in the long term, it's gonna preserve your wealth.
- 34:53SPEAKER_00: Because everything I look at, Ted, whether it's this desk or this computer or anything, it's just gonna cost me more dollars, pounds, euros next week, next month, uh, uh as my grocery uh cart shows me every time I go shopping.
- 35:07SPEAKER_00: So, so really it it to me that's a no-brainer.
- 35:11SPEAKER_00: Um, physical gold, physical silver, something that cannot be debased in any way, shape, or form.
- 35:17SPEAKER_00: Um, what what what advice are you giving to um your um your your the your subscribers um now who say, well, ask you a question about gold and silver.
- 35:28SPEAKER_00: Um do you differentiate the physical from the paper for them or what?
- 35:33SPEAKER_02: Yeah, we do.
- 35:34SPEAKER_02: I mean, I think uh I think from a when I tell people on physical goal, if you own it, you just gotta own it.
- 35:41SPEAKER_02: Okay, don't try to look at it every day.
- 35:43SPEAKER_02: And uh I I don't have it with me, but my good friend uh John Hathaway at Sprite gave me a graph, and it's a really good graph, Andy, it shows that the goal of the last 25 years has outperformed the SP 500.
- 35:59SPEAKER_02: I I doubt very few people know that, you know.
- 36:02SPEAKER_02: I I doubt that seriously that they know that.
- 36:04SPEAKER_02: But when you own gold, the physically, you just have to own it.
- 36:09SPEAKER_02: And if you go, if you have a few years where it slides back, and that's not what it's meant to do.
- 36:16SPEAKER_02: Uh what it's meant to do is over long periods of time is a maintain buying power, if not improve buying power.
- 36:23SPEAKER_02: And I always go back and use this as an example.
- 36:26SPEAKER_02: If you go back 20 years ago in the U.S.
- 36:28SPEAKER_02: and took the average home price and how much gold it took physical to buy it, okay, and you took that same amount of gold today to buy the average home price in the U.S., you could buy three times that amount.
- 36:43SPEAKER_02: That's that's where people miss the point.
- 36:46SPEAKER_02: They they have to own it but keep it.
- 36:49SPEAKER_02: And don't uh I you know I know I know people like Warren Bubby say, well, it doesn't pay any cash or that sort of thing, but I think what they miss is we have a poor setup in this country and the world on debt.
- 37:02SPEAKER_02: And the only really long, long-term money that's held its value has been gold.
- 37:09SPEAKER_02: You can go back thousands of years.
- 37:12SPEAKER_02: Um, and uh I I think that's where people probably is, and if if they're gonna try to trade it, I think they shouldn't be in it.
- 37:19SPEAKER_02: Either if you buy it and keep it, you need to just keep it, you know, and don't don't get hung up on trying to trade it.
- 37:26SPEAKER_00: That's sage advice.
- 37:27SPEAKER_00: And and I think um I I sometimes I have a sign up on the wall, and this is from maybe 30, 40 years ago.
- 37:35SPEAKER_00: Um, no position is a position.
- 37:38SPEAKER_00: And and I try and remember that occasionally, um, because it these days it's just too easy uh to get in and out.
- 37:45SPEAKER_00: Whereas before he'd be on the phone, you'd have to negotiate a deal.
- 37:49SPEAKER_00: Now it's click, click, click.
- 37:50SPEAKER_00: So um, but I know John Hathaway personally, uh, and especially when he was working for Tucker when he was uh working for Tockerville, um, really, really smart guy.
- 38:01SPEAKER_00: And um and and when he talks about gold like that, he's right.
- 38:05SPEAKER_00: And do you know what?
- 38:06SPEAKER_00: I walk around with in this country with this little sovereign.
- 38:10SPEAKER_00: Okay, it's just a little sovereign.
- 38:12SPEAKER_00: But in 1931, I could go to any bank and I could change that for a pound.
- 38:18SPEAKER_00: And and now, if I go to the bank, it it's gonna cost me 800 pounds, nearly 900 pounds to to get it.
- 38:27SPEAKER_00: So so really I walk around with it because people say, yeah, but isn't it volatile?
- 38:31SPEAKER_00: Well, it depends on your time frame, because sure as heck, as sure as heck hasn't changed.
- 38:37SPEAKER_02: This didn't change, so well, you know, uh in the US, they you don't see as many of them.
- 38:42SPEAKER_02: I have quite a few as silver dollars, the silver dollar.
- 38:46SPEAKER_02: And a silver dollar today is not a dollar, it's worth about$64 worth of silver.
- 38:50SPEAKER_02: Some similar to what you're talking about.
- 38:53SPEAKER_02: And I think people always forget about that, about that.
- 38:56SPEAKER_02: But like uh, you know, I have quite a bit of bullion, but I just have it, I don't look at it.
- 39:01SPEAKER_02: I have it two or three different places, and uh just keep it.
- 39:06SPEAKER_00: You know, I'm sure it's in a vault securely way away from the house.
- 39:11SPEAKER_02: Well, it's in it's in it's in three different places.
- 39:14SPEAKER_02: Uh I'll put it that way.
- 39:15SPEAKER_02: You know, I I guess I'm I guess I'm uh I'm untrustworthy enough to not trust one spot.
- 39:24SPEAKER_00: Ah do you know what?
- 39:26SPEAKER_00: Um, but really, really appreciate um you coming and sharing um your really sage thoughts with us.
- 39:34SPEAKER_00: And and I think, you know, because you do represent um what I think is what a lot of the ultra-high net worth people are thinking.
- 39:44SPEAKER_00: Uh uh institutions are uh the way they're approaching this, they follow you, um, and also your books.
- 39:52SPEAKER_00: You have many, many books you've written.
- 39:54SPEAKER_00: Um and what was the last one?
- 39:56SPEAKER_00: Um, I know that there was one I mentioned earlier.
- 39:59SPEAKER_02: Well, the last book was called uh Second Generation Wealth.
- 40:02SPEAKER_02: What do you really want for your children?
- 40:05SPEAKER_02: And um I wrote that book because we deal with a lot of people that have instant wealth.
- 40:11SPEAKER_02: They sell a business or they come into it through a public company, something.
- 40:16SPEAKER_02: And um they some of them do it right, but a lot of them don't, as far as how they handle money with their children.
- 40:24SPEAKER_02: But uh I in so many cases I have people come in to see us or whatever, talking to them, and they'll say, you know, um, I have these two kids or three kids and they're X, Y, Z age, and they say they're just they're just worthless, they don't do anything.
- 40:38SPEAKER_02: So, and I always say, Well, what did you do?
- 40:40SPEAKER_02: Did you just well, I gave them money most of their life.
- 40:43SPEAKER_02: Well, what'd you expect?
- 40:45SPEAKER_02: Uh, you know, I mean, and that's why we wrote it.
- 40:48SPEAKER_02: We wrote it just to say, look, you know, don't get caught up in telling your kids when they're in teenagers how much money you have, because that's not going to do them any good to know that you're worth a hundred million bucks.
- 41:00SPEAKER_02: Okay, just leave it, all right?
- 41:03SPEAKER_02: You can tell them when they're 35 and been on the street for a while or something.
- 41:07SPEAKER_02: But uh, you know, put them put them to work.
- 41:10SPEAKER_02: And I was interviewed here a week or so ago, and I told the lady, I said, Look, if if if you if your kids come out of high school and they never had a job or particularly out of college, and they never had a job of any kind, then as far as I'm concerned, you're an unsu you're an unsuccessful parent, okay?
- 41:29SPEAKER_02: Because you owe that kid the ability to make it on their own, self-esteem.
- 41:35SPEAKER_02: And that's what now a lot of people disagree with me on it, but that's okay.
- 41:38SPEAKER_02: I've seen it in action.
- 41:40SPEAKER_02: So I know the ones that work and the ones that don't.
- 41:42SPEAKER_02: Uh, and I really that's why I wrote it.
- 41:45SPEAKER_02: It's been a very popular book, by the way.
- 41:47SPEAKER_02: I mean, I've more than I ever expect.
- 41:49SPEAKER_02: It's not very long, less than 100 pages.
- 41:52SPEAKER_02: But everything I write, I always write so you can read it in about two and a half hours.
- 41:57SPEAKER_00: Well, I think uh ultimately, whichever whatever you do, doesn't matter what you do in life, you ultimately eat what you kill.
- 42:05SPEAKER_00: And it's as simple as that.
- 42:06SPEAKER_00: And if you don't uh go out and and work um uh and try and pursue uh betterment, then then clearly you may as well roll over um uh because it's pointless.
- 42:19SPEAKER_00: And you know, the reason I say it in this country, it is pathetic, it's it's sad that it's become so woke that you can now pick up the phone as a a young person and say, Oh, I'm feeling stressed, therefore I'm signing myself off.
- 42:35SPEAKER_00: And they do.
- 42:36SPEAKER_00: They actually get paid to not go to work.
- 42:40SPEAKER_00: But I mean, I pity them because in the real world, and and the real reality will come to us all at some point, they're gonna be unfit to handle anything.
- 42:52SPEAKER_02: I only have I only have one question, Andy, for parents when I'm busy with them.
- 42:57SPEAKER_02: I have only have one sort of one question that's a benchmark.
- 43:00SPEAKER_02: And I say, let me ask you a question.
- 43:04SPEAKER_02: Could your children make it today on their own if you gave them nothing?
- 43:10SPEAKER_02: Zero money, okay?
- 43:12SPEAKER_02: And if they can answer that question, yeah, they do make it on their own, then I think they've been really successful as a parent, okay?
- 43:21SPEAKER_02: Um, because they learn self-esteem, they learn what the real world is all about.
- 43:25SPEAKER_02: But in many, many cases they say, oh no, we couldn't make it on.
- 43:29SPEAKER_02: We paid, you know, we pay half the pay, we pay all the tuitions, we pay half half the home payment, the cars, you know.
- 43:35SPEAKER_02: Well, you know, all you're doing is making them uh subservient to you.
- 43:41SPEAKER_02: You know, you're not doing them any good, but it's too late at that point.
- 43:44SPEAKER_02: But that's the question I always ask them, you know, could your kids, could they make it on their own?
- 43:49SPEAKER_02: I know both of my kids can make it on their own.
- 43:51SPEAKER_02: Uh, and they have.
- 43:53SPEAKER_02: So uh I feel good about that, but that's that's that's one of the reasons I wrote that book.
- 43:58SPEAKER_00: Well, that's that's really interesting.
- 44:00SPEAKER_00: And I think what the what I like about these sessions, Ted, is that what we're what we're doing is we're sort of freewheeling some ideas here.
- 44:07SPEAKER_00: And and what we're doing is enabling people who look at these things, they're all different kinds of people from different walks of life.
- 44:15SPEAKER_00: Um, ultimately, it's information.
- 44:18SPEAKER_00: And information gives you power to make, take responsibility for yourself and make decisions that sit on yourself.
- 44:26SPEAKER_00: So rather than being told what to do.
- 44:28SPEAKER_00: And I've I I really thank you for joining us and actually sharing your wisdom with us, because it doesn't come from yesterday.
- 44:38SPEAKER_00: This is this goes back a long way.
- 44:40SPEAKER_00: And it's like and it and it's thought through, it's alchemized, it's sort of um it's there.
- 44:46SPEAKER_00: And I really appreciate you sharing it with us today.
- 44:49SPEAKER_02: Well, thank you, Andy.
- 44:50SPEAKER_02: You have a good great show.
- 44:51SPEAKER_02: I tell you, we obviously you cover a lot of territory.
- 44:54SPEAKER_02: You've been very successful.
- 44:55SPEAKER_02: You have a lot of people watching you, so you must be doing something really great.
- 45:01SPEAKER_01: Thank you so much.
- 45:02SPEAKER_01: And there you have it.
- 45:03SPEAKER_01: Thanks for joining us on this episode of Live from the Vault, brought to you by Kinesis Money.
- 45:08SPEAKER_01: And a huge thanks to Andrew McGuire and our featured guest, Ted Oakley, with Oxmo Advisors, for really cutting through the noise and sharing insights that you just won't find anywhere else.
- 45:20SPEAKER_01: Now, if you like this episode, hit that subscribe button right now.
- 45:24SPEAKER_01: Give us a like, you know, turn on your notifications so you never miss out on these conversations.
- 45:29SPEAKER_01: And don't forget as well to share this episode with someone who really needs to hear the real story behind the headlines.
- 45:36SPEAKER_01: And we're back soon with more hard-hitting truths from inside the precious metal space.
- 45:41SPEAKER_01: And until then, thanks for watching, and we'll see you right here on Life in the Vault.
- 45:46SPEAKER_01: Bye for now.