Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 356 - 9/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 356 - 9/19/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to episode 356 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I am your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy Friday. Our work week is coming to an
• 0:39
  end. We got a huge weekend upon us
• 0:41
  here, guys. We're going to see if we can
• 0:43
  finish up strong here on a Friday as we steam into the
• 0:45
  weekend. I do have a loaded, and I mean
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  loaded. Usually I say that, but I
• 0:50
  really, really mean it this time.
• 0:52
  I'm actually a little bit nervous because I am going to
• 0:54
  try to maximize our edge and play every single system match
• 0:58
  this weekend. Hoping to come out on top of
• 0:59
  your guys, but I do have for you today a 2 pack of college
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  football plays. We got a couple Friday Night
• 1:06
  Lights matchups here and I've pretty much seen 2 sharp plays
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  on both games. So we'll talk Iowa and Rutgers
• 1:12
  and Tulsa and Oklahoma State. So 2 plays here for today.
• 1:16
  I know I tell you what, I'm not even touching baseball.
• 1:18
  I know there's a lot of baseball games, but I didn't really just
• 1:21
  it. Baseball's driving me crazier.
• 1:22
  So why? Why even chance a very volatile
• 1:26
  baseball market when we got our finger on the pulse of football
• 1:29
  right now? Pro in college, so 2 plays in
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  college for tonight. Also have two college football
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  plays for tomorrow. And then believe it or not guys,
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  I have 1010 NFL plays for this weekend.
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  I haven't had this many plays in a while now.
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  I used to always have 1015 plays in a in a NFL weekend.
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  And then I realized over time, you know what, you should limit
• 1:50
  your plays and not overextend yourself because anytime you
• 1:53
  have too many plays, sometimes you can get a little in a little
• 1:55
  bit of trouble. But you know what I was saying
• 1:57
  to myself after last night with the Pat McAfee Miami Dolphins
• 2:01
  coming up, huge, and I mean huge, covering the number plus
• 2:05
  11 1/2 + 12 1/2 fighting, playing hard and covering the
• 2:09
  number that O and two system match your O and two your dog in
• 2:13
  Week 3. There were nine matches Dolphins
• 2:16
  cash last night for us. That means there's eight more.
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  I'm going to play all eight of them guys.
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  So we're going to see if we can try to come out on top here.
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  But I do have 10 plays in the NFL for this upcoming weekend.
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  So we're going to run through all of those as well as 2
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  college plays tonight, 2 college plays for tomorrow.
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  So a big, big, big again, bigly, bigly, best bet card for this
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  weekend. Now looking back toward
• 2:38
  yesterday, I want to 1st thank everyone who tuned into the
• 2:41
  Rhythm Rundown. It's the new live stream myself
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  and my buddy Kate Harper put on every Thursday night, 6:00
• 2:47
  Eastern Time. You can just get right on
• 2:48
  Twitter, throw some questions. We'll run down all the games of
• 2:52
  course, but we had another good stream last night and we
• 2:56
  actually had a one and O night 1 and O + 0.91 units for the
• 3:00
  official ASG best bets, which by the way you can always find
• 3:04
  first exclusively and only on the Juice Reel app.
• 3:07
  I want to give a shout out to my guy Ricky Gold, who runs Juice
• 3:09
  Reel because he just added Doug Kazirian, who now has his place
• 3:14
  posted on Juice Reel as well as Warren Sharp, and he also added
• 3:19
  Taylor Mathis too as a huge following.
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  So shout out to my guy Ricky Gold for really getting more and
• 3:26
  more great people to to join and get followed there on Juice
• 3:30
  Reel. But anyway, you can always get
• 3:31
  these best bets that I put in officially exclusively on Juice
• 3:34
  Reel. It costs $4.99 a week, 5 bucks
• 3:37
  to get some insights and play. Get the plays early.
• 3:40
  You can always find them there. So over the weekend, again, I
• 3:43
  won't be doing the pod because we're actually going to host a
• 3:46
  party next weekend. It's my unofficial book release
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  party for friends and family. It's also my wife's birthday, so
• 3:53
  we're going to have a get together, have a backyard
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  cookout and I actually just bought a Solo Stove on at Home
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  Depot. So we're going to have a fire
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  pit late and we're also going to play beer pong, which we call
• 4:04
  Beirut. Whatever, we have long games.
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  It's going to be a lot of fun here, but I got to spend this
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  weekend getting ready for the party.
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  So again, you could there won't be pods on the weekends, but you
• 4:13
  can always get the best bets from Juice Reel.
• 4:16
  And you can also, of course, read the sharp reports that are
• 4:19
  right beeson.com. That'll be on my Twitter page at
• 4:22
  Josh under score Insights. But how about them fins baby?
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  Remember yesterday was a crazy day for for your buddy over here
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  because I woke up and it was going nuts with my Twitter going
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  viral because Pat Mcabee picked up on that system match led the
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  show off with it. Believe it or not, teams that
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  are O and two going into week 3 desperation mode, your dog
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  getting points. Dolphins coming through huge
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  last night. Also rhythm.
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  Remember they had Dolphins plus 7.3, which was basically spot on
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  until there's a field goal late to make it a 10 point game, but
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  that system is now 38 and 17 against the spread, 69 percent,
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  33% ROI. So I was praying the Dolphins
• 5:00
  would cover. I was like, again, they're
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  playing so hard. At one point they tied the game
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  in the fourth quarter and I'm like, Jesus, don't give up two
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  touchdowns and lose by 14 because I'll have all the McAfee
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  haters and everyone blowing me up telling me I'm an idiot.
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  But luckily the fins held on and covered that line, which was
• 5:16
  which was pretty amazing. So that being said, guys, as the
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  fins make us look good with our hazmat disgusting play covering
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  the number, let's see if we can get some winners tonight and
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  winners going into the weekend. So I want to start off with
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  college football because there are two games here for tonight.
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  Both look pretty sharp. So let's set the stage.
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  Talk about the first one here. 1st 7:30 PM Eastern Time, Tulsa
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  at Oklahoma State. Now Tulsa comes in one and two
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  just felt a Navy 42 to 23 in their last game didn't cover as
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  a 13 1/2 point home dog. You know Oklahoma State, Mr.
• 5:49
  Gundy, Mr. I'm a man I'm 40 attack me one of the greatest
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  press conferences of all time. They're 1:00 and 1:00, but they
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  just got destroyed by Oregon 69 to 3 did not cover has a 28 1/2
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  point Rd. dog. So what you seen across the
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  market here. Well, this game opened, believe
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  it or not, Cowboys, Oklahoma State listed as high as a 14
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  point home favorite. And boy, that number did not
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  last because we've seen the sign get all the way down to Oklahoma
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  State -10 and a lot of books even now down to Oklahoma State
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  -9 1/2. So the important thing for me,
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  not only this massive line move toward Tulsa, but the fact that
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  this is a 5050 game, public doesn't know what to do Oklahoma
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  State, bigger program, bigger name recognition, favorite at
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  home. But it's kind of a big number
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  and they just got blown out. Tulsa smaller team just got
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  rolled as well, but again, big number.
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  So what are you going to do? Public is undecided.
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  It's basically 5050 right down the middle.
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  So what do we always talk about? If the tickets are split 5050,
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  theoretically the line shouldn't move at all because you would
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  expect in a vacuum, you know, balanced action, both sides.
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  No need to go up or down on the odds maker side.
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  However, even though it's 5050, the sign is really moved toward
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  Tulsa. So it tells me Tulsa is taking
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  in some sharp action here. Tulsa at DraftKings, 48% of
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  spread bets, 64% of spread dollars.
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  At Circa, 56% of spread bets, 75% of spread dollars.
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  So both DraftKings and Circa are showing a pretty good low bets,
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  higher dollar split here in favor of Tulsa.
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  I do have a system match Friday night Rd. dogs six and one ATS
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  this year. They're 29 and 15 ATS, 66% since
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  the start of last year. And the key to me, guys, is
• 7:31
  getting the 10. Now most books are down to Tulsa
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  plus 9 1/2, but they are juiced a little bit on the OK state
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  side -9 1/2 -, 115. But there are a couple books at
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  10. So again, 10 is a key number.
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  Not quite as key as like 3 and 76, but that's a key number.
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  Add a touchdown and a field goal together, that's 10.
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  So you want to always make sure if you're a dog, you get the 10.
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  If you're on a favorite, you want to make sure you get the -9
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  1/2. So shop around.
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  I got Tulsa plus 10 at -112 at DraftKings.
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  And what I really like about Tulsa in particular, Big move in
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  their favor. Good system match, sharp
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  contrarian bet splits. But also if you look at Rhythm,
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  our friends at Rhythm, I have two models.
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  Listen to this. First one is Tulsa plus 5.2.
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  Second one is Tulsa plus 5.5. So you got to get the 10.
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  I wish I could have gotten 10 1/2.
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  That's long gone. There's a lot of nine and a
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  halfs out there. But we have a split public.
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  But line move toward Tulsa. Again, Rhythms telling us it
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  should be about a 5 or 6 point game.
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  I took Tulsa plus 10. Again, you got to get the 10,
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  not the 9 1/2. That way if Tulsa loses by 10,
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  we push instead of lose our bet. And I did notice as well a 21%
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  sharp mush edge in favor of Tulsa at Juice Rail.
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  So first play tonight, guys, I'm going Tulsa plus 10 next one for
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  you. Let's do it for Tony Soprano.
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  Iowa at Rutgers, 8:00 Fox tonight, big matchup.
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  Iowa comes in two and one just dominated UMass 47 to 7 covered
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  as a 35 point home favorite. Meanwhile Rutgers 3 and O just
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  destroyed Norfolk State 60 to nothing covering as a 44 1/2
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  point home favorite. So what we seen across the
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  market here, well this game opened at most shops.
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  Iowa listed as a 2 point Rd. favorite and the public says
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  this line is way too short. Public is all over Iowa.
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  Heavily bet primetime game on Fox 8:00 Seventy, 2% of spread
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  bets at DraftKings are laying with the Hawkeyes.
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  But here's the important thing. Even though it's a heavily
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  backed game and everyone's playing Iowa, Iowa is not up to
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  -2 1/2 - 3 - 3 1/2 - 4. Normally heavily lopsided
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  betting. You'd expect the line to get
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  adjusted toward that popular side because odds makers are
• 9:45
  taking in a ton of action. They got to mitigate some rest.
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  They got entice some betting on the other side at a better
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  price. But we haven't seen that.
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  We've opened pretty much Iowa -2 we've stayed pretty much Iowa -2
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  and we've actually seen some shops get down to 1 1/2.
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  That tells me we got a line freeze or even a little bit of
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  reverse line movement here in favor of Rutgers.
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  They happen to be the number one contrarian play of the night.
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  Again, it's on Fox 8:00. This will be on every bar in
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  America, and vast majority of the public is going Iowa.
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  But yet the line, again hasn't moved toward Iowa.
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  So you have a line freeze as only 28% of spread bets are on
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  Rutgers. If you look in particular,
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  Rutgers, 28% of bets, but 42% of dollars at DraftKings and at
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  circa 35% of bets, 47% of dollars at out in Vegas.
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  So both low bets, higher dollar splits in favor of Rutgers.
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  Home conference dogs. Rutgers would match here.
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  They're 340 and 295 against the spread, 54 percent, 2% ROI since
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  2022. And to make it even a little
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  sweeter, I popped open Rhythm. Guys don't tell anybody, but
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  Rhythm actually has Rutgers favored in this game.
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  Rhythm has Rutgers -0.4 and -1.3.
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  Now, the key here is shopping around because you can still get
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  a 2 1/2 only book across the market.
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  Still giving the hook is Bet MGM.
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  So I jumped on Rutgers plus 2 1/2 -, 115 at Bet MGM.
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  Let's do it for Tony Soprano. That'll be a nice.
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  But you know what, win the damn game out right, Make it make it
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  even sweeter for us. But let's go Rutgers plus 2 1/2
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  -, 115 at Bet MGM and Tulsa plus 10 -, 112 at DraftKings.
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  Now I want to quickly give you the 2 college plays for tomorrow
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  because then we got a lot of NFL games to talk about.
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  So the two games here that caught my eye for tomorrow and I
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  decided with UNLV, Miami, Ohio, they're on my radar, but I can't
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  get the three so I don't want to push it.
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  I hope if you know anyone does play that game, I hope Miami,
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  you know, wins and covers. But my only two official bets
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  are Texas Tech plus 3 1/2. I really like this one because
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  Utah opened around a 4 1/2 point favorite.
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  These are two ranked undefeated teams.
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  Publix leaning Utah, but line is down to Texas Tech.
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  So we are now seeing again plus 3 1/2 Texas Tech and and this is
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  a spot where I want to kind of follow that sharp line move four
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  and half to three and half. And you do have short Rd. dogs 4
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  or less covering around almost 54% of the time since 2012.
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  So big sample. And the other angle for me is
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  Texas Tech, a dog who can score system match.
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  I believe they ranked either first or second or third and
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  scoring like over 50 points a game.
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  If you're on a dog, either got to have a really good defense to
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  keep it close and cover or really good offense to score or
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  backdoor cover, keep pace and cover that number.
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  So that would be a dog who can score system match.
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  So I did take Texas Tech plus 3 1/2.
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  That's pretty widely available. A lot of books are plus 3 1/2 -,
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  115. But I'd love to grab the 3 1/2
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  in between now and noon tomorrow, see that fall down to
• 12:56
  three, maybe get some closing line value.
• 12:58
  But again, line moving toward Tech, good splits, good system
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  matches. I am on Texas Tech plus 3 1/2.
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  Then the other game I'm on is Louisiana Tech on the money
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  line. Now I got LA Tech little bit
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  earlier -145 on the money line. They're now about -160 -, 165.
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  But this one jumped out to me as kind of an under the radar play.
• 13:19
  If you look at the way this line is moved, it's only moved in
• 13:22
  favor of LA Tech. Again, they're at home against
• 13:24
  Southern Miss is a 730 game tomorrow night, but they open as
• 13:28
  low as -1 1/2. They're all the way up to -3 a
• 13:31
  lot of shops are juiced up looking like it may even go to 3
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  1/2. And my angle here was I want to
• 13:36
  be with the sharp line move, but I don't want to, you know, lay a
• 13:40
  three or even a 3 1/2 and win by three key number and lose the
• 13:43
  play. So I money lined a lot Tech
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  Again, they're as high as I'm seeing like you in one shot -175
• 13:49
  at this point. But this is kind of one of those
• 13:52
  under the radar games where you have a lot of liability and
• 13:55
  movement. And I don't think it's a game
• 13:56
  that really sharps are targeting, but if you look at
• 14:00
  out at Circa, only half the tickets, but over 90% of the
• 14:03
  money is on the Louisiana Tech money line.
• 14:06
  The other angle here is a pretty good rhythm edge rhythm has La
• 14:11
  Tech actually favored -4.2. So maybe that makes you feel
• 14:15
  better if you want to save the juice and lay the three.
• 14:18
  But this is a play for me that just win the damn game.
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  Again, let's protect ourselves. I got La tech -145 earlier in
• 14:25
  the week on the money line. Looks like you can maybe get
• 14:28
  around a -. 158 is your best price now, but some shops -160
• 14:33
  even as high as -170 So Texas Tech plus 3 1/2 lot tech money
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  line. Now what we've all been waiting
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  for. After a great start to the O and
• 14:43
  two system getting points week 3 with the fins covering last
• 14:47
  night I said to myself, you know what Josh?
• 14:50
  Maybe the gambling gods are smiling on you with Pat McAfee,
• 14:54
  you know, putting your tweet up there.
• 14:55
  Dolphins covering. Why not just play every single
• 14:58
  system match? So I don't love having a lot of
• 15:01
  plays like this. It definitely scares me.
• 15:03
  But if you have an edge, try to maximize your edge.
• 15:05
  No risk, no reward. So let's just run through all
• 15:09
  these plays. I'm playing all of the Owen two
• 15:12
  teams that are dogs. So first one on the board,
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  Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans.
• 15:18
  Now this line has moved toward the Colts.
• 15:21
  Colts open around as low as -2 they're now up to -4 1/2.
• 15:25
  And the public wants nothing to do with Tennessee.
• 15:28
  Right now. The Colts are getting 72% of
• 15:31
  spread bets at DraftKings, so they're a big public play.
• 15:34
  This would be an inflated line dog.
• 15:36
  Tennessee would also be a divisional dog system match, so
• 15:39
  two teams from the AFC South. And I also like the fact that if
• 15:43
  you look at at at a rhythm right now, Titans are plus 3.7 and you
• 15:50
  can get a four and a half. That's also a bit of a dog low
• 15:53
  total total. This one's like 43 1/2.
• 15:56
  And that would match Owen. Two teams dog week 3 again,
• 15:59
  Miami covered now 69% ATS since 2017.
• 16:03
  So I got Tennessee plus 4 1/2 -, 115 at ESPN.
• 16:10
  ESPN bet I should say next one for you, Atlanta and Carolina
• 16:15
  taking Carolina here, guys, plus 5 1/2.
• 16:17
  You can get a -, 110 at BET MGM. This is another play where
• 16:21
  public wants nothing to do with it.
• 16:23
  Atlanta is getting 74% of spread bets.
• 16:26
  So public is all over the Falcons here.
• 16:29
  This one opened as low as Atlanta.
• 16:30
  I want to say like as low as like 2 1/2.
• 16:33
  It really got shot up to -5 1/2. But you're starting to see some
• 16:37
  juice and maybe some buyback. Bring it back down to five.
• 16:40
  But this would be an own two team, super contrarian, inflated
• 16:43
  dog and divisional dog. So that would all be lighting up
• 16:47
  on Carolina. I did notice there was a tweet,
• 16:50
  no AJ Terrell, the top corner for Atlanta, he's going to miss
• 16:54
  this game. So maybe Carolina loses by 5,
• 16:57
  You know, they lose by three, who knows, maybe they have a
• 16:59
  win. But I did play Carolina plus 5
• 17:03
  1/2 -, 110 at BET MGM. And if you look at Rhythm, you
• 17:08
  can get plus 5 1/2 Panthers in the betting market.
• 17:10
  Rhythm has Panthers plus 3.5 SA. Little bit of a Rhythm edge as
• 17:14
  well. Next one for you I'm going back
• 17:17
  to Cleveland week one they covered for us.
• 17:19
  I'm hoping they do it again. Fully admit looks like Green Bay
• 17:22
  is going to blow him out. Green Bay open this game around
• 17:25
  A7 point Rd. favorite and now been bet up all the way to -8
• 17:29
  1/2. Public is hammering the Packers
• 17:31
  70% of spread bets but it provides a buy low spot in
• 17:35
  Cleveland O and two team dog getting point system match.
• 17:38
  You also look at the inflated line.
• 17:41
  I got Cleveland plus 8 1/2 -, 112 at DraftKings.
• 17:46
  So again, not a sharp play, but an inflated line dog.
• 17:48
  It's also a big kind of a big dog.
• 17:50
  Low total told this one is like 41 1/2.
• 17:53
  So it's hard to cover a big number with a low total like
• 17:55
  that. And if you look at DraftKings,
• 17:57
  only 30% of spread bets are on the Browns, but they're taking
• 18:00
  into account 76% of dollars. And if you look at circa 28% of
• 18:06
  bets, 95% of dollars on Cleveland.
• 18:09
  So again, some books are 7 and a half eight, but you can still
• 18:12
  get an 8 1/2 at DraftKings. I took Browns plus 8 1/2 -, 112
• 18:17
  at DraftKings. And oh, by the way, Rhythm has
• 18:20
  Browns plus 5.8 or plus 6.8. So even if you round up to 7,
• 18:25
  little bit of an edge there for my friends at Rhythm.
• 18:27
  So let's go, Brownies next one for you.
• 18:32
  The Jets, The Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets, they're on the road at
• 18:35
  Tampa Bay. We open this game, Tampa around
• 18:38
  a 5 1/2 point. Favorite public is all over
• 18:41
  Tampa Bay. 65% of tickets this line at one point got all the
• 18:45
  way to 7 1/2. It's down to 6 1/2.
• 18:48
  But I did shop around and find a + 7 with The Jets at -120 at
• 18:53
  Fanatics. I think you got to get the
• 18:55
  seven. You could wait it out.
• 18:57
  Maybe it naturally gets up to seven between now and Sunday.
• 18:59
  But again, Jets lose by 7:00. You want to cover this number.
• 19:03
  Jets are starting Tyrod Taylor, maybe a lower ceiling, but a
• 19:07
  higher floor compared to Justin Fields.
• 19:09
  But if you look at the splits right now, Jets 35% bets 84%
• 19:14
  dollars on the spread at DraftKings, and at circa 34%
• 19:18
  bets 53% dollars. They'd also match a big dog
• 19:22
  getting 6 1/2 or more. They'd also match a dog off a
• 19:25
  blowout loss of 20 or more. That's 56% ATS over the last
• 19:30
  five seasons. Oh, by the way, this wouldn't be
• 19:34
  a huge edge like Rhythm has Jets +8, but I'm going to stick with
• 19:38
  the system match here and hope Tyrod Taylor keeps it close.
• 19:41
  And Tampa Bay, I did read I believe they have like 3 of
• 19:44
  their starting offensive lineman out, so maybe that's a little
• 19:48
  bit of a benefit here to The Jets.
• 19:49
  But shop around. There's a lot of 6 1/2's out
• 19:51
  there. I got Jets +7.
• 19:54
  Next one for you, Houston Texans.
• 19:57
  I got Houston Texans plus 1 1/2. You could maybe tease this up.
• 20:01
  To 7 1/2 go through some key numbers, but this looks like a
• 20:05
  sharp line freeze. You open Jacksonville basically
• 20:09
  getting or laying 1 1/2. You pretty much stayed 1 1/2
• 20:13
  here. Houston would match that O and
• 20:15
  two team that's desperate. They're also divisional dog.
• 20:18
  They're also have a system. CJ Stroud has a dog.
• 20:21
  He's nearly 60% against the spread historically and at circa
• 20:26
  73% bets 99% dollars on Houston. So good split there.
• 20:32
  You also look at our friends at at at rhythm.
• 20:36
  I should say they have Texans plus 1.2.
• 20:40
  So again, you want to protect yourself, bring them, tease them
• 20:42
  up. Can't argue with that.
• 20:44
  But I'm going to take the 1 1/2 there.
• 20:46
  Hope they basically win that game out right.
• 20:49
  I got 1 + 1 1/2 -. 1 O 8 at FanDuel.
• 20:52
  Next one for you, New Orleans Saints.
• 20:55
  Saints on the road at Seattle? This one's interesting because
• 20:59
  it really hasn't moved much. You open most shops?
• 21:01
  I guess some shops open as low as -6 1/2, but 7/7 and 1/2
• 21:06
  pretty much stayed in favor of Seattle.
• 21:08
  Publix all over Seattle thinking they're going to easily cover
• 21:11
  this number. The Seahawks are getting 70% of
• 21:14
  spread bets at DraftKings. But if you flip it the other
• 21:17
  way, Saints 30% bets 48% dollars at DraftKings and then at Circa
• 21:23
  42% bets 90% dollars. So shop around.
• 21:27
  You can find a 7 1/2 there with the hook.
• 21:29
  I got 7 1/2 - 110 at Bet MGM. This would match our system and
• 21:33
  also match that big dog system. 6 1/2 or more.
• 21:36
  They're covering 57% so far. ETS this year, 54% or sorry, 50.
• 21:43
  Yeah, 55% ETS since 2022. So maybe Seattle wins by 7.
• 21:48
  But again, it's another dog low. Total 41 1/2.
• 21:51
  So I got Saints plus 7 1/2 -, 110 at Bet MGM, next one Chicago
• 21:57
  Bears. Now I'm a little worried because
• 21:59
  it's flip dog to fave in favor of Dallas.
• 22:01
  Dallas went from getting a point and a half to not laying a point
• 22:05
  and a half. But this is a system match here,
• 22:07
  so I'm going to play it. You're kind of just buying low
• 22:09
  on this line move. Also, Bears are very contrarian.
• 22:13
  Remember Dallas had that walk off win with Brandon Aubrey.
• 22:16
  They're obviously America's team, all that.
• 22:18
  People are really down, probably deservedly so, on Caleb
• 22:21
  Williams, but the Bears are only getting 18% of spread bets at
• 22:24
  DraftKings. Big, big contrarian play at
• 22:27
  Circa, actually. 25% bets, 50% dollars.
• 22:32
  And what I like also about the Bears is don't tell anybody, but
• 22:36
  Rhythm has Bears favored in this game.
• 22:40
  Rhythm has bears -1.7 or 1.9. So hey, we got Rhythm saying
• 22:47
  Chicago should win. Win by basically 2 points,
• 22:50
  you're getting a point and a half.
• 22:51
  Again, you want to tease them up.
• 22:53
  Not a bad play either, but I got Bears plus 1 1/2 at FanDuel -115
• 22:58
  another play that I love, the G men.
• 23:00
  Sunday Night Football Giants at home against Kansas City.
• 23:04
  Public sees Kansas City in a get right spot.
• 23:06
  They're O and two, they got to win and cover this number right,
• 23:10
  8070% of tickets are on Kansas City laying the points.
• 23:14
  This is a great contrarian opportunity to take the points
• 23:17
  with the G Men, but really it's a line freeze pretty much.
• 23:20
  Kansas City open -6 they've stayed 6.
• 23:23
  Now you can get plus 6 and F -, 110 at BET MGM.
• 23:26
  So that's my play right here. Again, shop around, lose by
• 23:29
  6:00. You want to cover, but it's a
• 23:31
  prime time dog with the Giants O and two dog system match.
• 23:36
  Only 20% bets, 45% dollars at circa.
• 23:40
  You have prime time dogs. Russell Wilson has a dog 62%
• 23:43
  ATS. And again, I just think the love
• 23:46
  for Kansas City is too high. And they do.
• 23:48
  They're due anytime you you turn on ESPN, all this team's do
• 23:51
  Kansas City's do. No, no, that's, that's like when
• 23:54
  you go to the roulette table and it lands on red five in a row
• 23:57
  and you say, oh, it's got to be black the next time.
• 23:59
  No, it might just be red again. But I like the Giants in that
• 24:02
  spot. And it doesn't hurt that our
• 24:04
  friends at Rhythm have Giants plus 4.8 and plus 4.1 and we can
• 24:09
  get 6 1/2. So maybe that's a six point
• 24:11
  Kansas City when you cover by the hook, but I got G men plus 6
• 24:15
  1/2. Then my other two games, they
• 24:17
  are not the O12 system match, but they're just kind of classic
• 24:20
  sharp plays. I did take Rams plus 3 1/2.
• 24:23
  We got everybody and their mother going with the the
• 24:27
  Eagles. Right now the Eagles are getting
• 24:30
  upwards of 60% of tickets, yet the line is moved toward the
• 24:34
  Rams plus 4 1/2 down to plus 3 1/2.
• 24:37
  You'd also match with a both 2 and O take the dog system that's
• 24:42
  58% ATS over the last decade. Rd. dog 3 1/2 or more that would
• 24:46
  also match. And if you look at the Rams,
• 24:48
  they're only getting around 40% of tickets but 70% of the money
• 24:52
  money, money. Actually Jerry Maguire was on
• 24:56
  last night. I haven't seen in a while.
• 24:57
  One of my favorite movies, but show me the money with Cuba
• 25:01
  Gooding Junior. But I am on Rams plus 3 1/2.
• 25:04
  And then let's see what did I have here?
• 25:09
  The final game was the Broncos. Broncos plus three Broncos are
• 25:15
  on the road at the Chargers. We pretty much opened chargers
• 25:20
  -2 and half -3 everybody and their mothers on Chargers. 80%
• 25:24
  of tickets at DraftKings going with Herbert.
• 25:28
  But it's a short week, short turn around.
• 25:30
  You can sell high on the Chargers, who have looked good
• 25:33
  first two games, and buy low on Denver, who's coming off a last
• 25:35
  second loss to the Colts. And oh, by the way, if you look
• 25:38
  at Circa, only 21% of spread bets are on the Broncos, but 87%
• 25:44
  of spread dollars, a huge split in favor of Denver.
• 25:49
  And again, you got to get the key number.
• 25:50
  There's a lot of two and halfs out there, but you can find plus
• 25:52
  three around -110 -, 115. And that's also a divisional
• 25:57
  dog. So I did take Denver +3.
• 26:00
  So for those playing at home tonight, Tulsa plus 10.
• 26:03
  Rutgers plus 2 1/2 over the weekend, Texas Tech plus 3 1/2
• 26:08
  LA Tech money line. And then we got 10 plays here in
• 26:11
  the NFL. Can we get 6 or more Jets plus 7
• 26:14
  Tennessee plus 4 1/2 Carolina plus 5 1/2 Cleveland plus 8 1/2
• 26:20
  Houston plus 1 1/2 Saints plus 7 1/2 Bears plus 1 1/2 Giants plus
• 26:25
  6 1/2 Rams plus 3 1/2 Denver plus three.
• 26:31
  Feel like we just ran a marathon here guys, but it's a big
• 26:33
  weekend ahead and let's see if our O and two system can
• 26:36
  hopefully come through for us as it did last night.
• 26:39
  But that about does it episode 356 of the all systems go sports
• 26:43
  betting podcast As always guys, we finish up the pod by first
• 26:47
  saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 26:49
  out of your day. All of you out there listening.
• 26:51
  I appreciate you know you got a lot going on, but the fact you
• 26:54
  have, you know, 30 minutes that you can spend listing this pod
• 26:56
  each day, it means a ton to me. So if you'd like to help us grow
• 27:00
  the pod, please give it a five star review on Spotify or
• 27:04
  iTunes. You can always leave a nice
• 27:05
  comment if you if you would prefer, you can click the follow
• 27:08
  button. You can recommend the pod to a
• 27:10
  friend. All available to you, basically
• 27:13
  whatever platform you're listening to it.
• 27:14
  So I really much appreciate that.
• 27:17
  Next, if you enjoy the style of bedding breakdown, maybe never
• 27:20
  in your wildest dreams would you consider putting on the hazmat
• 27:23
  suit, taking dolphins plus 11 1/2 + 12 1/2.
• 27:26
  But you followed the system match, the sharp contrarian
• 27:29
  play, the the inflated line dog, primetime dog, divisional dog,
• 27:33
  you cashed. So hopefully this podcast, you
• 27:36
  find it insightful, you find the information helpful.
• 27:39
  Hopefully you're beating some closing lines.
• 27:41
  You're you're winning some bets and you're have having a
• 27:43
  blueprint here to attack the betting market.
• 27:46
  If any of that is true, I hope it is and you'd like to learn
• 27:48
  more about data-driven betting. You'd want to support the pod.
• 27:51
  Let me know you appreciate the insights or maybe have a friend
• 27:54
  or colleague or someone in your life who wants to get into
• 27:57
  sports betting but doesn't know how anything works.
• 28:00
  What's a spread? What's a what's a teaser?
• 28:02
  You know, how much do I bet a game?
• 28:04
  All that stuff. It's available in a in the the
• 28:08
  form of a book. Yes, books are still out there.
• 28:10
  I know no one reads anymore, but you should Reading makes you
• 28:13
  reading makes you smart. But I have two books.
• 28:16
  Go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL sharp betting playbook, type
• 28:20
  in the everything guide to sports betting.
• 28:22
  Pick up one or both of my books, give him a five star review in
• 28:26
  Amazon, bring him the sports book.
• 28:27
  I'll sign him for you. I'll buy a beer or ginger ale
• 28:30
  and we'll sweat some of these these dogs this weekend.
• 28:33
  Next, have you downloaded Rhythm and Juice Reel yet?
• 28:35
  My two favorite sports betting apps.
• 28:37
  Download Rhythm for their AI backed models and predictions,
• 28:40
  game bets and player props. Again, Rhythm had a 7.3 with the
• 28:42
  Dolphins. You're getting 11, half, 12 and
• 28:45
  half. That helped us cash that bet.
• 28:47
  Remember, you can use start 25 as a promo code to get 25% off.
• 28:52
  There's a leaderboard contest also so you can win some money
• 28:55
  went up to 1000 bucks each week. Whoever's got the best model and
• 28:59
  you get paid out 1-2 and three, think the first person gets
• 29:02
  1000, second person 600, third person 400.
• 29:06
  You can also refer a friend and you both get some perks there as
• 29:09
  well. So download Rhythm, give them a
• 29:11
  five star view in the App Store. And remember TuneIn every
• 29:13
  Thursday at 6:00 PM for a Rhythm Rundown live stream and then
• 29:17
  Juice Reel. Juice Rail is hot right now.
• 29:19
  My buddy Ricky Gold is happy. Just got Doug Kazarian, Taylor
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  Mathis as well as Warren Sharp to put their plays up on Juice
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  Rail. And if you'd like to sport the
• 29:28
  pod, you can sign up to get my plays for $4.99 a week.
• 29:33
  I look at it not as selling pics, but tipping your podcast
• 29:36
  host. Again, you like the insights and
• 29:38
  you can tail fade, do whatever you like, but these are all real
• 29:40
  bets that I'm making. As soon as I make them, they go
• 29:42
  right to Juice Rail, so you also get the Robo Jackson best bet
• 29:46
  picks, the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays
• 29:49
  all available on Juice Reel. Next you have a live odds page.
• 29:53
  You need a live odds page. You get through and attract the
• 29:55
  market. You got to know what the lines
• 29:57
  First off, what games are being played tonight, start times,
• 30:00
  live scoring, live in game wagering.
• 30:01
  But what did the game open at? What is it currently?
• 30:04
  Shop for the best price, identify steam, all hugely
• 30:08
  important things you need to know.
• 30:09
  You can get it all using the odds logic.
• 30:12
  Live odds page so make sure you go to oddslogic.com/josh 123.
• 30:18
  You'll get a 7 day free trial 50% off your first month.
• 30:21
  Again that's odds logic.com/josh 123.
• 30:25
  Lastly, don't just bet through a sports book, bet through a
• 30:28
  betting exchange. Use Novig.
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  You can use the promo code Josh 123 for 100% deposit.
• 30:33
  Match up to 25 bucks. You put in 25, you get 25 back.
• 30:38
  But a betting exchange, it's pretty much the same as a sports
• 30:40
  book, but you're not betting against the house, you're
• 30:42
  betting against other betters. That means you're getting better
• 30:44
  numbers and if you win and do well, they're not going to limit
• 30:46
  you and kick you out. So you can always join Novig and
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  put in promo code Josh 123 for that deposit match.
• 30:54
  So that about does it for episode 356 on a Friday of the
• 30:57
  ASG pod. As always, guys, few final
• 31:00
  thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 31:03
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New
• 31:05
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sundown in Connecticut, the
• 31:08
  Encore in Boston, Plainridge Park Casino, MGM Springfield,
• 31:11
  the Nash Ramat in New England. Out in the desert where the true
• 31:14
  grinders get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
• 31:16
  number runners where the lowest juice possible is found at the
• 31:19
  South Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 31:21
  plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when he cash a big
• 31:24
  ticket at Circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
• 31:26
  to walk up to me, we're just going to smile.
• 31:28
  You're going to see me and Pat McAfee at the book.
• 31:31
  We're just going to we're just going to look like dolphins.
• 31:33
  I can't make a dolphin noise from Ace Ventura pet detective,
• 31:37
  but we're just going to flap our fins and and just smile as the
• 31:41
  dolphins come through bigly, bigly, bigly bigly for the team.
• 31:45
  So show me your fins ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
• 31:48
  you. We'll post it at the book.
• 31:50
  Hopefully have a winning weekend here ahead.
• 31:52
  As always, guys coming off A1 and O night O and one good
• 31:56
  night, bad night, hot, cold, somewhere in the middle.
• 31:58
  We always keep grinding when we're doing well.
• 32:00
  We never get cocky and arrogant and double, triple down when
• 32:03
  we're struggling and things aren't going our way.
• 32:05
  We don't smash our TV, bet more, chase or quit.
• 32:09
  We're in this for the long haul. So we can stay true to our
• 32:11
  bankroll management, stay disciplined with our flat
• 32:13
  betting and just find the games that fit the model.
• 32:16
  We don't have to bet every game. Here's the one at one of the
• 32:18
  advantages. Again, the odds makers have a
• 32:20
  ton of advantages over us. One of our advantages, they got
• 32:23
  to put numbers up for every game.
• 32:24
  We only have to pick the games that we that we are seeing that
• 32:28
  provide value basically. So if we can do that, if we can
• 32:32
  go against the public with the house, with the pros, flat bet,
• 32:35
  avoid parlays and get that CLV and hopefully I'm pretty
• 32:38
  confident we're going to be successful sports betters.
• 32:41
  So have a great Friday night, everybody.
• 32:43
  Good luck. I'll see you back on Monday.
• 32:45
  That'll be episode 357 of the All Systems Go sports Betting
• 32:49
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and have a
• 32:52
  great, great, great, great weekend.
• 32:55
  Take care.