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WMPO - PGA Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel DFS | Single-Entry GPP Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the lift up? What's up everyone?
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Tyler Tamberline here aka Totag and Tambo back for another
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: edition of.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: The Leverage Lane Show PGA edition here on the ship
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Nation YouTube station.
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: Got my guy Alex Blickle here with me as always,
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: gonna be breaking down all things waste management, Phoenix open,
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: We'll have some of the weather, we'll break down the ownership.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: What's the chalk build look like? Really heavily focused on
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: a single entry GPP perspective and coming out for a
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: pretty big week. Our man go collect right here. Blickel,
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: just out here calling his sixty to one shots one
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: week out of time. Congrats to you on the Justin
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: Rose call. We had our lanes last week. Mine was
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: six north and six out. It actually ended up winning
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: me a forty four to forty four mega ticket for
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the upcoming players Megamilly, so I'm excited about that. But
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: got to bring you in right off the w man.
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: It was a nice call on Justin Rose, and I'd
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: love to see that.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: How you doing, my friend.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Doing very well. It's very nice when you're sixty to
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: one winner, gives you no stress throughout the week. I
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: mean that was as easy of an outright win as
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: I've ever had. And yeah, I mean never at any
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: point in the week was I even like remotely stressed.
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Once we got like even I don't know, halfway through
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: his Friday round, it was like, this looks pretty good
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: and I don't think it's going to change.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what do you think about that?
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Like, I think it's so funny to me it was
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: over on Saturday by the numbers and by the math
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: and by like anything you've ever seen. But then all
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, you know, people are trying to make
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Sunday exciting, and they're trying to put it in there
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: just from your golf background and history of knowing it,
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: like the guy just can't fall apart like that on Sunday,
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: or like, how do you feel about it, because a
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: lot of people were stressed that.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: It's like, oh, it's only justin Rose. It's like he
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: could give it back.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: We've seen five strokes from behind recently, et cetera, et cetera.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: How do you think about that?
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, the the only real stress was off
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: the tee. Like if you remember, I don't know, a
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: year and a half ago, two years ago, three years ago,
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: why was Rose not play anywhere near as well he's
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: playing now. It's because he hid no control over the driver.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: Like the you know, the putting has always been there
• 2:24
  Speaker 3: for him, the short game, the iron play, it's always
• 2:26
  Speaker 3: been there for him to some degree. He just couldn't
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: control the driver, and so if there was a concern,
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: it was just like what happens if he starts sniping
• 2:34
  Speaker 3: it left off the tea and suddenly can't figure it out.
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: That It's also what his miss was the week prior
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: at Amex, like especially day one, I think he shot
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: one over at Lakita or something like that. It was
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: because every single drive was left and he just had
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: no idea how to control it. So there was, you know,
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: a possibility that he would just suddenly lose it. But man,
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: he drove the ball so well those first two days
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: and then so well all weekend. It was really cool
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: to see. And the real key and the reason why
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: I was so high on Rose coming into the week
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: is because, like in addition to the fact that you know,
• 3:08
  Speaker 3: you know, Pat has said like he was number ten
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: in the world and he was thirtieth and on the
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: DraftKings or on the on the odds board, something like that.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: And the thing to me was he was tenth in
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: the world rankings, not because of some like inflated you
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: know performance two years ago or something, but literally because
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: of how well he had played in the previous six months.
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: And then the only reason to assume that he might
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: not continue that level of play was because of age.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: But the thing about his age is his ball speed
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: was up by like four miles per hour coming into
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: last week, and now it's up by even more than that,
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: because he was touching one to eighty at times last week.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: So he was clearly working hard this offseason and might
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: even be better now than he was last year.
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he's fired up long ways from doing ice cream
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: commercials for MasterCard and gazing off into the distance in
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: certain you know, I guess like apparel commercials and things
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: like that that you just used to make fun of Ros.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: But you know, good for him and getting it all
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: and putting it together, I know, speaking of a go
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: collect He did hit the sixty to one shot as well,
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: with you. I saw him post that in the discord.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: There was a lot of Shipping Nation members. I saw
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: that hit it, and I'm with Gary amazing Colin. I
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: didn't take because I'm a donkey, I believe, And it
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: was go Collect who messaged me.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: He was like, so did you end up betting that
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: Rose thing?
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: And I was like, oh, I meant to do it
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: right after the show and I did not, So I
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: missed out on that with you guys as well. But
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of fun and always great to see that
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: when it comes down to it. Recapping just from last week,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: we said we would talk a little bit about a
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: comment from last week. So I want to congratulate Aaron
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Smith sixty five sixty eight get a free week of
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: ship at Nation just reach out to me or info
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: at ship atnation dot com. But this was the comment
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: I wanted to hit on from last week. Then we
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: can round into coming into this week with weather and
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: course fit and I love the waste management Phoenix Open,
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: so we'll get to that in a minute.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: But said thought.
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: Provoking comment question. It seems from the first three leverage
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: lane pods that much of golf leverage is made from
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: embracing variants and the minute skill differences in players, such
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: that course fit and current form do not even play apart.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: And it seems that inefficiencies in the market are not
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: considered like maybe Jason Day just balls out at California courses.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: Quite the run on there, my friend Aaron, So congrats,
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: but you work on that spacing a little bit. Is
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: that intended? Or am I missing something important? Let's start there.
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: What's your thoughts on the first part of the question.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So the part where he gets into like inefficiencies
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: in the market, I've been considered, like Jason Day just
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: balls of California courses kind of loses me at that
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: point of the question. But prior to that, when you're
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: balancing embracing variants and trying to find inefficiencies in the market,
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: like hey, this players just under projector this player's under owned.
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: It's all the same thing, right, And so I think
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: the way that I would phrase it is, I think
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: the major mistake that a lot of the industry makes
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: is that they try too hard to predict what's going
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: to happen. And you know, examples of that are I
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: think like looking at putting splits by different surfaces is
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: like putting is always going to be extremely difficult to
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: predict if you're not just understanding that putting is volatile
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: and you're trying to say, I know, putting's really volatile,
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: but this guy puts really well on this surface, so
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: he's going to put well this week. You're probably overconfident
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: about that. And so when people try so hard to
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: predict that which can't be predicted, they're putting themselves in
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: a bad position, and they're putting themselves in a position
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: where we can take advantage. So it's not that inefficiencies
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: don't exist, it's that we have to be very careful
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: and very mindful of just how well we can predict things.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: And then even when we do think we have a
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: projection advantage and we do think, hey, this guy's under
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: a projector this guy's on own something like that, we
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: still need to understand just how volatile things are and
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: we want to embrace that variance. And so I talked
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: to with Pat about this yesterday on his DFS show
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: in regards to betting, actually, which is like, I think
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: one of the reasons why I've been successful in the
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: outright market is because I'm not just looking at how
• 7:01
  Speaker 3: guys project and saying, oh, this guy's projected way too
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: well to be sixty to one. Rose was projected well,
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: but he was projected this equally well to many guys
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: in that range. The reason why Rose stood out to
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: me as the best outright was because his event to
• 7:16
  Speaker 3: event volatility was by far the highest in that range,
• 7:19
  Speaker 3: and it was even the highest in the entire field.
• 7:21
  Speaker 3: So that volatility means that, like, look, when he has
• 7:27
  Speaker 3: a ninety fifth percentile outcome, he's winning the tournament. When
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: other guys around him have a ninety fifth percentile outcome,
• 7:33
  Speaker 3: they're finishing third. They need to have a ninety ninth
• 7:35
  Speaker 3: percentile outcome to actually win the event. And so when
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: you get into that kind of math and that kind
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: of understanding, again, it's not that there aren't important differences
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: in course fit and recent form. It's that there's a
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: very capped ceiling to how far that can take you.
• 7:54
  Speaker 3: And embracing the volatility of golf and understanding how important
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: volatility is to actually like harness that and use it
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: to your advantage and not just use it as an
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: excuse for why you didn't do well in the past
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: week is where I think an even larger edge lies.
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I like the second part of the question better,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: but I just want to add to that quickly. Is again,
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: I believe this is the biggest leak in all of
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: PGA DOFs, specifically of the focus on like the picks,
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: the plays and the ownership. Like people are in the
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: chat already ask do I need one play under this percent?
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: Do I need too my lineup that one with six
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: donkey chock plays. But we talked about it specifically when
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: you go with a side or a wave or whatever
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: it might be, they were all over ten percent owned.
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: It's it's what you always say, it's not just who
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: you're playing, it's who you're not playing. The efficient, the
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: leverage or the variants that I'm getting in there. The
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: volatility is while I'm on six guys that are popular,
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: I'm not on six to eight guys that are super
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: popular and are making up more of the combinatorial ownership
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: that we talk about.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So it's like you're already avoiding it.
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: People are so focused on I can't play this play
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: because he's eleven percent. Let me play this play at
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: three percent? Like it can help you. Sure, there's things
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: like that that get built in naturally. You can use
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: opt to make that happen. You can use contest.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Sims that can put you in that zone.
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: But it's what I've said, it for years, And I'll
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: say it again, it's not who you play, it's how
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: you play them. People get really caught up and just
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: struggle heavily with that. And if you would just ignore it,
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: like I said, if people all the time over at
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: ship a Nation with the stone, you could do it
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: with your stuff guaranteed at FTN with with GPV scores.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Delete the names, delete every name on the paper, and
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: just play. Play the game. Stop worrying about everything else.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: It's they're all eligible to be played, they all have
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: a projection, they all have an ownership percentage, they all
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: can be put into lineups in certain combinations.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: Play the game.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: Stop worrying about the other stuff. You will get so
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: much better. But people just can't do it right. There's
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: too much bias there. And oh tell me, if this
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: guy is gonna be good this week. If we knew,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: we wouldn't even have to play. If Alex knew Justin
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: Rose was the only guy that was gonna win last week,
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: he would only bet that he would have skipped out
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: on everything else where you need to play combos and
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: lineups and anything, and just jammed his entire life savings
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: and bankroll on Justin Rose.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows. That's why we do the show this way.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: So it always gets me on a tambo's tangent going
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: off about this stuff. But if honestly people wonder why
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: people stay successful at this game, they ignore all the
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: bullshit and focus on playing dfs. That's that simple go
• 10:12
  Speaker 2: ahead revital you do.
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: You remember what your what your lineup was last week?
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: It was I got it here, but it's I know
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: it had Decki, Patrick Rogers legit like every play that
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: was twelve or fifteen percent owned like it was. It
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: was what we talked about a little bit too, by
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the way of like, I know they're all gonna be
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: twelve to fifteen, but I'm not gonna have like a
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: forty percent in there or something like that. If you
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: think about it from that perspective, I can find it
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: here real quick, just to give you a second, and
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: it would have came like second in the eighty, like
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: I don't play those outside of the Weir, the fifty five.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Whatever. It's like, it's still scored well.
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: DECKI was the highest owned at twenty three in this tournament,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: so it was DECKI got her up at seventeen. McNeely
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: at fourteen Nap at fifteen, Cooty at thirteen, and Rogers
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: at thirteen.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: It was like basically six guys like that. But again
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: it's do you know what I left off? Tons of guys.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: You can go back just to you remember who was
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: in the field last week. It didn't have Justin Rose
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: the winner, et cetera, et cetera. And again it's all
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: for the tournaments that you're playing in, but it's really
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the main point of what this person is asking.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: And that sort of thing is like.
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: No matter what you see the you know, the inefficiencies
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: as yourself or the market or whatever is baked in
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: and isn't this that and the other. To me, it's like,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: I'm just focused on playing the game. I don't even
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: care what the names are. I don't care that one Oh,
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: they're all gonna be over ten percent. Can't do that,
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: or you can and just ship and do everything with
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: it like it's that's the point. So in large field
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: tournaments much different. Yes, you're gonna need certain separation pieces
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: and leverage. That's what you have, optimizers and contest sims
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: and portfolio diversification and things like that that can make
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: it happen for you.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: A bit different.
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: But when we're talking about this single entry stuff and
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: people are, you know, ruling themselves out right out of
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: the gate or or making moves that you just don't
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: need to make, that's key second part though, This is
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: one that does come up often, and I think it's important,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: especially on Scotti Scheffler weeks, which we'll have another chat
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: about here again this week. People know this show is
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: meant to be like an evergreen, you know, sort of educational,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: bring some of that with it as well, and we
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: will get to waste management specifically, But starting here it says,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: on another thought, should six to six cut percentage be
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: the goal or boom bust upside for at least a
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: couple guys Hidekian Rose come to mind. Thanks for an
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: interesting and great work every week. So what what's your
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: thoughts on six to six cut percentage being the goal
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: versus like a boom bust of You know, you know
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: you're taking on that risk. You're hoping you get six
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: to six, but if you don't. If you do, at
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: least you'll have some boom in there for the ceiling opportunities.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: If you don't, that lineup was kind of dead anyway,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: Like I always talking about Yeah.
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: There are two things I'll say here. The first is
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: I'm going to tweak that a little bit and say
• 12:45
  Speaker 3: it's not the six for six percentage should be the goal.
• 12:48
  Speaker 3: It's having a six for six when the field six
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: for six percentage is very low. Like I you know,
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: I've had a bunch of takedowns in the last two years,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: and I think all but one, which was the Tour
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: Championship last year, so there was no cut, All but
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: one have come in weeks when the six for six
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: percentage was like three percent or four percent, and I
• 13:09
  Speaker 3: had six for six, And all the weeks that you know,
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: the field six for six percentages like twenty to twenty
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: five percent, I very rarely had six for six and
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: when I did, that lineup was dead. So I think
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: there's there's like a very purposeful approach when when I'm
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: building lineups that I'm thinking about what is the path
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: for the field six for six percentage to be low?
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: And then how do I make sure that I avoid
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: that path? And so a lot of the time that
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: literally just means fading a lot of the fragile, you know,
• 13:37
  Speaker 3: cheaper chalk. But sometimes it means, hey, you know, I
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: think there's actually some some fragile guys up top that
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: I'll avoid and get contraing up top, and now I
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: can use some of the chalk your values, and so
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: I think like I can kind of segue that into
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: the mistake that I thought I made last week, which
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: was the same love I had for Rose in the
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: outright market, I ended up having for Rose in just
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: traditional DraftKings, and I honestly wish that I had that
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: earlier because I could have been my leverage lane and
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: that would have been really really good. But once I
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: had that kind of love for Rose and understanding that
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: when he delivers, he's going to deliver in a huge
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: way and really give me a lot of separation the
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: rest of my lineup, and if you remember, like my
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: leverage lane was just be super contrarian across the board.
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: And I don't think that any anyone that I played
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: was bad as an individual play, but the lineup as
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: a whole would have been better if I had surrounded
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: the conviction on Rose and the potential separation with Rose
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: with higher probability plays. So like I didn't need Yes
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: Persvencent in that lineup. Do I think that he was
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: a very under owned play even though he missed the cut. Yeah,
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: he's a really good course fit. He's been better on
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: difficult courses, like there were a lot of reasons to
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: think he could do well, but there were also a
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: lot of reasons to think that he would continue to
• 14:58
  Speaker 3: not play well. And that's exactly what happened. And I
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: could have surrounded him with something like you know, got
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: her up and Keith Mitchell instead of Spawn and Spencon
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: or something like that, and now I would have been
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: rolling in money at the end of the week instead
• 15:14
  Speaker 3: of having missed cash in my lineup. And so step
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: one to answer this question is, yeah, I do think
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: you want to put a heavy emphasis on getting six
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: for six, but with the with the you know, awareness
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: of I want that six for six to come when
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: the field has a low six for six percentage. And
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: then the second part of that is you still need
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: someone who can really help you separate. Just six for
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: six alone isn't enough. You've got to have that six
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: for six with at least one separator. And that could
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: have been Rose for me last week, but I went
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: for extra separators and got earned in doing so.
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's the other thing too.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: Is just going back to my previous comment and people say,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: you know, fired up tambo is the best tambo. When
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: I only do one show a week, I do get
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: fired up because it's the only time I get to
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: talk about this stuff.
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. I'm passionate obviously, as you guys know.
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: But I will say, like you say, even there like
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: one separate, you're the lineup construction might be the separator.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: It's not always the play or this the golfer that
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: becomes the separated. By definition, it could of like the
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: ownership is low on Rose and he ends up going
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: to win and he is your separator this week. It's
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: like when somebody wins an NFL GPP and like, oh,
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: I better go buy the jersey of the lowest owned
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: guy on my team. It's like, did they really cause
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: it did the other guy throw an interception that led
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: to a pick six? And it was the defense that
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: was the lawyer You're gonna get the whole defense is jerseys,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Like it's all this stuff. It's like, it just build
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: good lineups and it doesn't mean winning lineup. We try
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and build lineup so that they're gonna win. I'm saying,
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: but think about what everybody's doing, how you can build
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: against it. To your point, I love what you said
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: there have like the probability stuff. That's why everybody loved
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: your math example. A couple of weeks ago with Scotty Scheffler,
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: you weren't just talking about made cut percentage. You were
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: talking about top okay winning. And that's why I said
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: the Scotty Scheffler example going to a bunch of different
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: places quickly but noting it. When Scotty Scheffler has like
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: a thirty five percent winiquity, You're not gonna be able
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: to get that much iniquity across all six guys. He
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: just has it and the rest don't really and then
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: the other six you're gonna need probably to focus more
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: on the made cuts with upside of what can still
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: beat them plus get you through because what you're hoping
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: on weeks like this one particularly, and we're gonna talk
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: about the Scotty situation again, this is not a guarantee
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: three rounds. This is not a full size field versus
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: some of the others things like that. So we'll get
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: to that in a minute, but just noting it on
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: a week like this even if Scotty gets there and
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: you're saying, okay, he gets there, you got to have
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: the other pieces right. And then on top of it,
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: it's like, will that be a six of six because
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: like you said, you end up getting the lower six
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: of six is because that now your other lineups could
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: just already be in better position by being six to six.
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: So having that you know, made cut plus that that's
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: where you make up. I think it was you that
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: said this to me before on a show we did together,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: and we were like, was, well, when I'm not getting
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: the win equity of Scotty Scheffler using the most common example,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: everyone knows, I'm looking to get made cut equity and
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: then upside from those guys, because that's the only way
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: to make it up, right, You're you need to make
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: up something. You're not gonna be able to make up
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: the win equity on paper. So now make and make
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: a lineup that has that upside potential but still has
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: that made cut. So congrats again to Aaron Smith. I
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: don't have too much else to add there. I know
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: people definitely though, want to talk about the weather for
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: this week and the course, so maybe you can start
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: us off there. And I don't know if you want
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: to bring up windy again if you have it there.
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: If not, you know, maybe just what you're seeing and
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: what you want to talk through when it comes to that,
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: because people are always looking for a good wave edge
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: or some sort of angle to attack with that. And
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: I know it looks like there is some wins on
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: Thursday morning. How it actually plays out, we'll see, but
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: I will say, well, you're pulling that up. Let's see
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: if we can do this here and then add that.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: We'll let you add that.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: To the stage.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: Can I do that? I think you might have to.
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's not letting me, so just let
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: me see. There we go, We're good.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: I will just say, because our guy Matt Gannon is
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: boots on the ground this week, He's actually gonna be
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: boots on the ground the next four weeks, which is
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: exciting inside the ropes, talking with the golfers, going through
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: it all. Really cool just for week one to have
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: him out there that his first week season. But he
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: was saying yesterday, the saying like yesterday was the opposite.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: There was like no wind when he got there all
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: morning and he was like it was crazy. As soon
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: as the wind picked up around lunchtime, things started flying off,
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: and the rough is a little bit more penal this year, and.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: So on and so forth.
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: Most just a few little bullets that I can throw
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: in there from the site and his expertise.
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: But what's your thoughts that you're seeing on the weather
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: for Thursday?
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have upright here the main European model
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: that defaults or that windy dot com defaults too, and
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: you can see there are some gusts projected on Thursday.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: And I will say it also note like it's pretty
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: chilly early on, and the cool air plus wind is
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: always going to be more impactful than the hot, humid
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: air and wind, So that's worth noting. But the second
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: thing worth noting is if I hit this wind button,
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: you see all of the different models and look how
• 19:55
  Speaker 3: like drastically different some of these models are to the others.
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: And then I don't know if you it might be
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: too small to see. But even like the NAM model,
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: which looks like the wind is pretty consistent throughout the
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: day thirteen miles per hour twelve fourteen, sixteen, fifteen fourteen,
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: and then down to about ten as the sun sets,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: the gusts are not consistent. They start at thirty six,
• 20:17
  Speaker 3: thirty five, thirty two, and then they go down to
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: twenty eighteen sixteen throughout the day. You see the same
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: thing here with the h R model, which goes up
• 20:25
  Speaker 3: to thirty nine mile per hour gusts early on. So
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: it's one of those things where we definitely have a
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: lot of uncertainty right now. Maybe we get the GFS
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: model and it's just calm throughout the day, or the
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: Media Blue Mark model that's calm throughout the day, and
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: there's really nothing here, and scores aren't going to be
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: drastically different. But they all agree that Friday is going
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: to be calm. They all agree that Saturday and Sunday
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: are going to be calm. So the only chance for
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: really impactful wind does seem to be Thursday morning and
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: a little bit Thursday afternoon and evening. But the Thursday
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: morning wind definitely looks like it could be the hardest,
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: and if you combine that wind with the coolest temperatures,
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: you really could see like a stroke and a half
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: to two stroke difference if it all breaks in that direction.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: So I'm definitely interested in full on after noonstacks, which
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: is unfortunate because you know, when I first looked at
• 21:19
  Speaker 3: the board and found guys that I thought were really
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: good plays and who score super well from a DraftKings perspective,
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: a lot of them are in the Thursday morning waves.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: So going to a Thursday afternoonstack is going to take
• 21:32
  Speaker 3: me off of some of my favorite plays for the week.
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: But that's something that like, in time, I have gotten
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: a lot better at. And when I've done that and
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: felt like, oh man, I'm really missing out on this
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: guy that I want to play well, you notice over
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: time that a lot of time the guys that you
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: have a lot of conviction on, that conviction doesn't end
• 21:48
  Speaker 3: up mattering and they don't play well and you're and
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: you end up much better off doing these structurally sound
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: and mathematically sound process instead of just getting too emotionally
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: attached to one player.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah I should know too, some of the stuff there,
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: like you know, it's crazy, but only from nine K
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: and above only Scotty, Ben Griffin, Burns, Fitzpatrick and JJ Spahn.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: That's it for a MPM if you're using it that way.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: So just a note, I mean, the Scotty decision is
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: certainly one I'm ready to get into that if you are,
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, I definitely want to talk Scotty again this week.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: I think it's an important conversation to have. And then
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: we'll talk about sort of what the chalk build looks like.
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: We'll go through how to leverage the chalk bill, We'll
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: get to our leverage lane at the end. We'll also
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: have the one and done and the betting breakdown segments. Everyone,
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: you better have another winner, Alex or we're done. We're
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: done for him, buddy. It's you know, gotta be every
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: week now as you know how the game goes. But
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: talking about the Scotty factor for a minute, and you
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: talked about this the pricing being better now with having
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: him at fourteen to five and a full four K
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: drop to Xander, it becomes a three v three conversation
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: again versus a two v two because you can play Scott,
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: you can't play like you could play three Scott. You
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: can play Xander and Seawou and you can't play Scotty
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: and someone for similar right, So it's like that's how
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: you gotta look it. But just noting it, where does
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: that leave your your thoughts on Scotty for this week?
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: And then he does have the AMT time.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to deter anybody, and probably
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: shouldn't because by the way, Scotty can he can play
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: in any weather and.
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: Including any wins.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: So give us your thoughts on Scotty and how you're
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: seeing him for the week here, and then I'll chime
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: in after that.
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll start with if you if you want like
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: a similar comparison to the one we did two weeks ago, Scotty,
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: Patrick Rodgers, and Sam Stevens is the equivalent of Sewu
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: kim Hedeki Matsiyama and Ben Griffin. So look into those,
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: look into that three v three If you have a
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: strong preference to one the other, that can really just
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: help with your decision of should I play Scotty or not. Personally,
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: I very much lean towards not playing him. But before
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: we get into that, I actually want to ask you
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: a question. I'm gonna throw a few numbers out at
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: you here. Scotty won thirty percent of his events last year.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: He won thirty seven percent of his events the year prior.
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: He won the first event this year, and it looks
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: like he's still every bit of Scotti. Scheffler and this
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: field is weaker. It's a it's a very good field,
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: but this field is weaker than a lot of the
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: events that he has played over the last two years
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: because so many of those events are signature events and
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: major championships. Our simulations only have him at twenty five
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: percent to win. Do you think that that twenty five
• 24:22
  Speaker 3: percent number is too low? What would your kind of
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: what would be your expectation for what Scotty's win odds
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: should be? No more.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: Scott asked this stuff because again, when it comes to
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: playing the game, it's like about the whole roster. So
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: I do have very intense Scotty thoughts this week, which
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: I'll get to, but for me, like I just think
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: it is what it is, like that's you know, the
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: numbers are what they are, and I mean you dig
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: into that a little bit further.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to be owned more than that.
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: But I actually will say when we get to it,
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I feel like in single entry stuff, I think he's
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: coming down again to that twenty five to thirty range
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: more than he is that thirty five plus range that
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: we're seeing in some places.
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: So what's what are your thoughts on it? Based on
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: everything you just brought up.
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I honestly I'm torn. On the one hand, like
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: I can, I can very clearly explain why the simulations
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: are lower on him, and I think this is something
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: you'd see across the industry. This is not unique to
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: our simulations over at F ten Fantasy. But essentially, when
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: you look at like, take any player in the field.
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: Let's look at Ricky Vowler for example, whatever he's projected at,
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: there's a reasonable chance that over the next three months,
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: or actually, let me back up and say, his projection
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: is largely driven by how he's played over the last year,
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: over the last three months, over the last you know,
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: three events, whatever, over the next three months, over the
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: next six months, there's a very reasonable chance that he's
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: going to be better than he's been, and there's also
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: a reasonable chance that he's going to be worse than
• 25:44
  Speaker 3: he's been. Significantly so in either direction, that isn't necessarily
• 25:48
  Speaker 3: true of Scotty. He has the same possibility of being
• 25:53
  Speaker 3: worse than he's been because for him, like being worse
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: than he's been, could still be very clearly the best
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: player in the world. But there's there's not as strong
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: of a chance that he's significantly better than he's been
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: because he's already been historically good. He's already been good
• 26:09
  Speaker 3: to the point where the fact that he has sustained
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: this level of play for as long as he has
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: has already defied the odds of how well someone can
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: play and continue that level of play for an extended
• 26:21
  Speaker 3: period of time. So that I think is a very
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: clear explanation for why projection models and simulations are going
• 26:28
  Speaker 3: to be lower on him than what his actual win
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: probability or what his win frequency has been over the
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: last couple of years. And so I like, I wouldn't
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: fault anyone for saying, hey, he's won thirty percent and
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: thirty percent the last two years. This is a weaker
• 26:44
  Speaker 3: field than a lot of those than what a lot
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: of those wins have come in. Twenty five percent is
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: too low. He's thirty five percent likely to win. But
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: then at the end of the day, I don't even
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: think that that's necessarily a relevant conversation to whether you
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: should play Scotti or not, because to me, the decision
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: of whether you should play Scotty is about how you
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: feel about the six K range and the seven K range.
• 27:04
  Speaker 3: If you can build a lineup using five of those
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: players that you feel good about, that you feel like
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: someone there can give you separation that by all means
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: play Scotty. Personally, I don't. I don't like that route.
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: I want my separators to be better players than Like
• 27:19
  Speaker 3: you know, I'm a big fan of Michael Brennan. I
• 27:21
  Speaker 3: think that he's got a chance to be great. I
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: don't think he's there yet. I don't want to rely
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: on him as one of my best separators. I want
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: guys like Ben Griffin or JJ Spawn or Ricky Fowler,
• 27:33
  Speaker 3: someone better, just higher quality players when whenever I'm building
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: the lineup. I think I mentioned this last week, like
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: the weakest link is often making the weakest link as
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: strong as possible is one of like the things that
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: I like to do in my lineups. And that is
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: not a Scotty lineup this week for sure.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so I definitely have big thoughts on it this week,
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: and they're different than last time. So we agree on
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: this one. And it's not just because the math or
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: whatever like that, you know, the look at that. It's
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: a couple of different things. One I think in large field
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: tournaments and we focus mostly on single hundry, so I'll
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: get there in a second. But in large field tournaments,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: I like either committing to him or not. You are
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: playing like a bit of a game of as my
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: friend go Collect calls it.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Here, it's this is a great way of putting it.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: And I talked about even last time.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: Even though getting the Scotty win and knowing, you know,
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: having him with five under ten percent guys is awesome, Well,
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: you got to kind of commit to that. So if
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: I have, you know, if I'm maxing out to a
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: MME or something like that, I would kind of want
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: to be in on Scotty. Play them that way, know
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: that there's gonna be a bunch of dead Scotti lineups
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: with too much chalk in them where it's not as
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: likely to get there that way or get any separators
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: that way, and then do it that way. But you
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: said it best and shout up to our big guy
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: in the sky Djen from last year at this tournament.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: He brought up a really good point because Scotty was
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: less money then he was I think thirteen or something
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: or twelve eight. It might have been less twelve five,
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: but anyway, the point was is like, look at the
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: bottom of the board and see what you like and
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: think about the tournament at hand. If you love what's
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: going on down there, then it should be a very
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: easy decision because you'll find a great lineup that you say,
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: here's my best lineup, and I'm running with it. But
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: even if he's twenty five percent in single entry, there's
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be so many versions of that that could possibly
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: be dead and it. We'll go right back to Aaron
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: Smith's point at the beginning and our added points to
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: it of like getting the six to six with the
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: made cuts and the upside. This is a regular cut event.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: This is a smaller field than we saw a couple
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago. They're not getting three guaranteed rounds. I
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: think there is a ton of guys from seventy five
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: hundred to sixty seven hundred, but none of them are
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: popping nearly as much as that week when we had
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: just so there was like fifty guys down there that
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: were all popping in the in the projections, in the
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: point per dollar, in the sims, all.
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Of that stuff. I think this is a different week.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: And I also will say now with again, Xander had
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: a bad week last week, sure, but let's give the
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: guys I can give credit to here, si Wu, Cam
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: Young Hideki Burns, Fits, Hovelin, McNeely, Fowler, Nap Kafka was
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: fine last week, Harris English Digala got her up.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: These are real dudes that I want to play.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: So if I like the middle of the board more
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: and I know that I'm gonna be able to find
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: that lineup that fits in between, I'm definitely gonna be
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: leaning more there than I am Scotty for the start
• 30:04
  Speaker 2: of my single entry lineup, just because even if Scotty
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: does come out and win, I think there's gonna be
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: a lot of those lineups that will bust based on
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: having a you know, getting the wrong pieces down below,
• 30:13
  Speaker 2: and there's only so many to choose from. You know
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: that people are actually gonna be choosing from. Again, it's
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: not just who you're playing, but it's who you're not playing,
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: as Alex likes to say, So there's that factor to it.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: And then what part of the board do you like more?
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: I definitely like the middle of the board a lot
• 30:27
  Speaker 2: this week, and and the sort of ninety nine hundred
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: down to eight K a lot more than I usually do.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: I think they all are in play here, all really
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: solid options that I can make a good enough build from.
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: And then those lineups also, lastly, will will actually get
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: me different zones than the Scotti lineups will because now
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: I can still get the other guys that I like,
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: whether it's.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Straka, Connors, the ho Guards, McCarthy.
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: Again, they can fit into Scotty lineups, but only so
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: many of them and then dropping down. So I think
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: for me, I've got more interest in the non Scotti's
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: than I do the Scottis. But I I think, you
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: know it's Scotty Scheffler. It's someone said he's a walking
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: T five That most certainly is true. Last year, even
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: at T twenty five, well nowhere near the optimal because
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: of the worst Sunday of all time, he was still
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: in a lot of the tournament winning lineups because just
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: the way the rest of the board played out here.
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: I think we got a different rest of the board
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: this week in that four K price difference. And it's
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: really more than that, because see Wu would be my
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: favorite guy after Scotty, and it's like that's even more
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: than that. So I think it's an interesting week, But
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: I think that makes it better to go that way.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: That's also why I think, as I mentioned earlier, we'll
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: see more of like that twenty four to thirty range
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: on Scotty and single entry than we will the thirty
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: five plus that you know summer thinking.
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: That's what I was gonna ask you next, is where
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: do you think that ownership settles, Because we actually have
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: him right now at twenty two percent in MMY and
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: only nineteen percent in single entry.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: If it gets sub twenty five, I could see it.
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: I still think would be leaning closer to the twenty
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: five side than I would sub twenty.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: But that's pretty pretty interesting, I guess.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: Like for me, the challenge I have is I still
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: see value plays being higher owned than what most of
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: the market has them. Like, what do you have Sam
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: Stevens at, for example, thirteen.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: And a half for MM and eighteen percent for single entry?
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: Okay, so even with that, yeah, I guess he's it's
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: mainly he fits any bill too.
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: That'd be the other thing. What do you have Keith Mitchell?
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: Where do we have Keith ten percent MM, eleven percent
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: single entry?
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, depends on how these guys get steamed, I guess. Yeah.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: I think what I'll say is I think The reason
• 32:27
  Speaker 3: why we have Scotty so low is is very similar
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: to why we had Xander a lot lower than the
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: field last week, which it wasn't about the value plays
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: necessarily is about how much enthusiasm was for the guys
• 32:38
  Speaker 3: right below him. Now we had Cam Young as the
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: one getting the most steam. That was wrong. It ended
• 32:43
  Speaker 3: up being Hideki. Hideki gets like thirty three percent in
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: some single entries. But this week it's the same sort
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: of thing. It's like, the reason why I don't think
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: that Scotty can get to thirty percent or thirty five
• 32:56
  Speaker 3: percent is because I think see Wu, Cam Young, Decky,
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: Ben Griffin, Mav McNeely, Knap, Chris Goddrup's gonna get a
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: Ton Pierson, Cooty, Like, too many of these guys are
• 33:08
  Speaker 3: being enthusiastically played by the field, and you just can't
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: get to them if you have Scotty, like, maybe you
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: could get to god Roup, maybe you could get to Cooty,
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: but in order to do that, you'd have to play
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: probably like one guy in the really low sixes or
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: four guys in the six case, And I just think
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: most people are not going to want to do that,
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: And so the vast majority of lineups I think are
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: gonna say, man, I really like Scotti Schefflery, I think
• 33:31
  Speaker 3: Scotty's gonna win this week or are gonna do really well.
• 33:34
  Speaker 3: But I still think the lineup is better without him,
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: and we're gonna see that that movement continue. We saw it.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: I can't remember which event it was. It might have
• 33:43
  Speaker 3: been like the second last playoff event last year. It
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: was the same sort of thing. It was like they
• 33:48
  Speaker 3: they finally got the pricing right, and everyone was projecting
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: him around thirty percent or forty percent us included, and
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: he came in at twenty percent. And and so I
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: think I think with time, as long as they continue
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: to price him like this, we're gonna see this more
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: and more often. And part of that it's gonna because
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: is going to be because a lot of the people
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: who want to play Scotty are the people who played
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: him last time, right like, there aren't gonna be many people.
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: To your credit, you're one of the few who will
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: look at every single slate completely independent of one another,
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: and come to drastically different conclusions. You really liked Scotty
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: last time, this time, you don't like Scotty. Most people
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: are gonna be like me, and they're gonna have the
• 34:26
  Speaker 3: same opinion about Scotty lineups this time as they did
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: last time, except they're gonna be people who played Scotty
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: last time got the easy win, winning by multiple strokes
• 34:36
  Speaker 3: and did very poorly in DraftKings because they had a
• 34:39
  Speaker 3: three for six or two for six or nobody else
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: other than Scotty came in the top thirty or something
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: like that. I'm gonna say, Okay, it's just too hard
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: to get Scotty lineups correct. I'm gonna move away from it.
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: Even though he won for me last time, so I'd
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: be very surprised if he was higher owned than he
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: was last event. I'll put it that way.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: That's what I was thinking.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: So to start the week, I will say that's how
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: things change as the week goes on as well. I
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: actually thought that would be where people are like, oh,
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: now we saw what he can do even in a
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: field like amex with which is a birdie fest, and
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: he still boat raced them and everything. And on top
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: of that, people that missed out last time since he
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: was only twenty four or twenty five percent whenever he
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: ended up settling at it wasn't as nearly as high
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: as people had thought. That's why I think some of
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: the sites will have him higher right now. But I
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: think it's what you said is the more you get
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: to building, the more you start to see it, the
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: more it breaks down. It becomes like it's not gonna
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: be as much, which now goes back to why I
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: said and the MME approach. While you are playing yachtzie Scheffler,
• 35:32
  Speaker 2: like I always call it, like you got to get
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: him in the five other dice to land your way
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: at least then you can roll it that way. I
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: would not want to have like a my mme set
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: with like thirty percent Scott he or something like it,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: just at the end of the day you're probably not
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: landing on it. You want to try and have as
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: many combos as possible if going that route, and just
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: get maximum leverage because you can actually leverage the field's ownership.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: If he ends up coming in at twenty and you've
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: got one hundred, you've got that. But if you build
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: those lineups accordingly and also look to get off the
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: board with the rest of the bill to not just
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: eat chalk everywhere else within those you leverage up the
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: twenty percent that also has bad Scott. Of those twenty
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: percent that he's actually owned in the tournament, every twenty
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: per one hundred lineups, let's use an easy number, twenty
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: of those lineups, like probably five of them are built
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: really poorly, So he's not actually twenty he's twenty percent,
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: but like fifteen because the other five percent is just
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: built so poorly.
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: Well, I like that you you brought that up because
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: I actually just answered this question in my discord as
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: if I were building one hundred and fifty, what would
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: my Scotti exposure look like? And bear in mind, this
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: is coming from someone who very rarely MMYs and I
• 36:34
  Speaker 3: haven't MMed in probably at least an entire year, So
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: take this with a grain of salt. But my answer
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: was I wouldn't exceed your belief of his win probability
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: because I think in m me like, yeah, there are
• 36:45
  Speaker 3: times when he's going to finish second or third and
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: you're going to have the winner. So the fact that
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: he didn't win is actually good for you because then
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: you get even more points from your lower owned guy.
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: But that's I think going to be canceled out by
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: the many times where he does win and balanced lineups
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: are still better than lineups with Scotty. So I would
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: not go over twenty five percent since that's my belief
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: of his win probability. But if if someone out there
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: thinks I think he's forty percent to win, then I
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: think you can comfortably go up to like forty percent exposure.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: But whatever your belief of Scotty's win probability is, I
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: would not exceed that with your exposure.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's where everyone's mind is different. And again
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: that's the math game. So all the math wizards are
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: like Tampa's an idiot, trust the math, go with the
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: projections of the spreadsheets. To me, it's a risk, it's
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: a risk reward game. If you think Scotty's winning, you
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: actually think is probably you're saying in your head his
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: probability is one hundred percent. Now you're saying you want
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: to get the combinations of him. So I'm like, to me,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: that's how I think. If you're wrong, you're dead. Anyway,
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: there is worlds we've seen it where Scotty wins and
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: then still isn't required. They're definitely is worlds for that.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: But on the flip side, there's worlds that are opposite
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: of what Jerry Matt is saying here. Word that's not true.
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: Scotty came T. Twenty five last year and was in
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: a bunch of winning lineups because the rest of the
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: field sucked.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: His price was different. It's totally different result.
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: But we've seen a ton of times where Scotty was
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: T five, T three, T four.
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: He doesn't have to win.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: It also matters what happens around him, and what happens
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: with the plays down below, and so on and so
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: on and so forth.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Can you bring that comment back up for a second.
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: So the communis Scotty's approaching a price whereby he doesn't
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: just have to win, he has to win by a
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: wide margin. You could easily get the ak balance, build
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: all top ten and beat him. I think the second
• 38:25
  Speaker 3: part is the more important part. Whether Scotty wins by
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: one or by four, as we saw, isn't really going
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: to make a huge difference because it's going to change
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: his DraftKings score by what like nine points, ten points
• 38:37
  Speaker 3: something like that. The key is what do the cheap
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: guys do? Can you get a lineup full of cheap
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: plays and Scotty where you're getting multiple top tens, you're
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: getting a second top five. If you can do that
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: and obviously have six for six, then that's clearly going
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: to be the best way to build. But if if
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: the top twenty is is Scotty one or two cheap
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: guys and then fifteen, sixteen, seventeen guys who are between
• 39:08
  Speaker 3: eight thousand and ten thousand, five hundred, like, you're going
• 39:12
  Speaker 3: to have plenty of balanced builds that outscore Scotty lineups
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: across the board because that the difference in you know,
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: the first place finishing position bonus and the second place
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: finishing position bonus just doesn't come any we'd anywhere near
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: enough to make up for how much worse the rest
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: of the lineup is. So it's we're in a really
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: weird place with this pricing, where whether you Scotty or not,
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: I really think it should not come down to your
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: opinion of Scotty at all. We know who Scotty is, right,
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: we know how often he's gonna finish in the top five.
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: We know he's gonna win a handful of his arms.
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: He's not gonna win all of them, but he's gonna
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: win somewhere between like fifteen and fifty percent. Of his events, right,
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: we already know that about Scotty. The big question mark
• 39:53
  Speaker 3: every single week that Scotty is playing is what can
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: the cheap guys do? And how easy is it to
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: actually build Scotty lineups? And with this pricing, it's hard
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: to build Scotti lineups and I don't think there's a
• 40:03
  Speaker 3: high likely to success for those cheap guys. Yeah.
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: I want to add another point though, when it says
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: you could easily get the eight K balance build, well
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: no you can't. Like there's twenty guys, even if I
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: spread you out a little bit, there's Scotty's a given
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: in this example. You're making this up, not me. You're
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: giving the example here. The wide wide margin is not true.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: Having to win is not true. And also the second
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: part of your range is like twenty guys. Even if
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: I give you outside of the eight K range, like
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: up into the nines down into the upper sevens, it
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: is a more unique build.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: It could easily have six made cuts.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: Also on and so for whatever you want to say
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: or if you know, however you want to frame it up.
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: My point is though an mme for specifically, and we're
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: we're focused on segn lndary. But I'm just bringing this
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: up to close all these doors and these myths. Is
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: like there's Scotty, there's fifty guys you can build in
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: with Scotty, which means there's like all these different combinations
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: that you can get. Someone's gonna have you if it's
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: needed down there and you're easily eight k balance, you
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: have one or two bus in that and you're dead.
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: You only got so many combinations you're putting together in
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: that realm as well.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: So just noting.
• 41:02
  Speaker 2: That that's why it feels a bit better, like when
• 41:06
  Speaker 2: you're building a single entry and why you can get there.
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: To Alex's point, even last time out, when Scotty won
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: the Amex, there was Sea Wou, Ben Griffin, Henley lineups
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: that you had talked about on the Very Show that
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: week that were still in the mix.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: Until they weren't.
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: Like Seawoo fell back, those other guys did their little
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: T nineteen thing, Sea Woo finished, I believe T six
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: that's part of it. And then Scotty wins and it
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: wasn't really about the amount he won by. It was
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: just he won, and it was a three day guaranteed
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: cut event and it was also the rest of the
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: options that were just down there to start with this week,
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: there's still all those options. It's just you're taking on
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: a lot more risk with them with two days not
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: three to get through and the limited points in different
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: way the different ways that it can play out.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: But there's a ton more combinations down there that you
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: can run.
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, to add a little bit more context to that,
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: that was a really good call out, Tambo. Because Data
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: Golf has one guy other than Scotty with at least
• 41:59
  Speaker 3: a thirty percent chance to fit or to finish in
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: the top ten. We have one guy with at least
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: a thirty percent chance to finish in the top ten.
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: Outside of Scotty. There's is Xander, ours is Cam Young.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: So there is a difference. But talk about being dialed
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: in with the simulations. They've got Scotty at sixty nine
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: percent to finish in the top ten. We've got him
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: at sixty nine point eight percent. So I feel pretty
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: good about our simulations. And I think that's just more
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: proof and it definitely gives some extra credibility to like
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: these numbers where man, you say, like it's difficult to
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: get all your guys in the top ten absolutely. It's difficult.
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: It's hard to get any one individual guy in the
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: top ten, as we kind of just saw, so to
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: get all of them, you've got to have a damn
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: good lineup. But when you do have that, your chances
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: of winning, of getting a takedown are obviously sky high
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: for sure.
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: And if you got Scotty and he's the winner, and
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: then you know you're you've got one hundred and fifty
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: lineups based around that, you end up getting I don't know,
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent sixty six and sixty six comes in at
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: like three percent. Well, now you're in really good shape
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: because you've got Scotty going out there in the job
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: done and tons of lineups that go with it. Now
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: you don't always need the guy with the balanced eight
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: k lineup. Now who has a t eight at nine
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: and then four guys you'll blow the top twenty, Like
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: nice job six to six.
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: That ain't winning, Like it's just not anymore at that point.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: Now in single entry gets a bit different. So what
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: do you see the chalk build moving this along? What
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: do you see the chalk build looking like in single entry?
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: Something like the two hundred dollars thirty k up top
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: this week something like that.
• 43:27
  Speaker 3: So one final point I'll make before going to the
• 43:30
  Speaker 3: Chalk build is just to the same kind of token
• 43:33
  Speaker 3: that there's one guy Sam Stevens below seventy three hundred
• 43:38
  Speaker 3: dollars with at least a seventy percent chance in our
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: simulations to make the cut. So why is it so
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: hard to build good Scotty lineups? There's your answer. As
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: far as the Chuck build is concerned. It is another
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: week where we do have decently spread out ownership. Like
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: the last time we had Scotty in a field it
• 43:55
  Speaker 3: was Scotty or the nine K range or you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: and then all the way down to the like the
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: low mid sevens, we we do have eight K guys,
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: so there isn't a single range that is without Chalk.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: This week we've got Scottie, then Seawu, Cam Young Hideki
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: Ben Griffin, and we've got matth McNeely. We've got Jake Knapp,
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: We've got Chris Gottterup Coody and then the seven case.
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: We've got some popular guys here as well. We've got
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: thorpe Bjornson, Rasmus Kiddiyama, Nikolai, Keith Mitchell, and then you
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: get into the cheap arrangement now, Sam Stevens, Mack Meisner. Uh,
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: it's very kind of balanced across the board, and so
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: it's I do think this is another week where it's
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: very hard to nail down like this is the this
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: is the chalk build, this is what you have to
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: get off of. It's it's it's going to be very
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: diverse this week. It's you know, it's not like an
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: NFL DFS week where we can say people are going
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: to the expensive running backs and the cheap wide receivers.
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: Can't really say anything that specific this week about what
• 44:54
  Speaker 3: the chalk build will look like. It's more that there
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: are popular plays kind of all over the place.
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think one of the things for sure, at
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: least to me, and I think you hit on it
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit earlier. But I think see WU is
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: gonna be the starting point for a lot of people.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: I don't. Again, it's very obvious.
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: It's like what we said, there's gonna be a moonwalk
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: on Scotty to whatever you currently see out there right now,
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: or at least like somewhat like even like yours could
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: come back up a little from eighteen ish, but like
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: that's how confident you're in that it's gonna be lower
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: than twenty five. So it just tells the story you
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: need to know right there, nobody is super comfortable with
• 45:25
  Speaker 2: Xander because you know last week of course, right and
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: just you know everything that's going on there right now
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: and being ten five, but he is ten five.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I'm definitely comfortable.
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: With Xander this week, especially when you know I'm not
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: playing Scotty. So let's just say, you know, in my
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: non Scotty lines, but in my single entry, I may
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: consider im.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: I'll just see where it lands.
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: But just noting it, it does look like Sea Wu
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: will be the clear starting point for a lot of people.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: But there's so many ways still within that that can go.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: Like even if you just anchor it on both ends
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: and just say Sea Wu and Sam Stevens very possible,
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: there's a ton of different ways you could fill that
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: out right at that point. You could have two more
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: nine K guy, you could use some of the eight
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: K guys however you want to see it. But I
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: do think the guys like who you mentioned, Sam Stevens,
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: like Keith Mitchell, I think you know you like a
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: little bit could get a little bit of Steve McCarty
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: gets toalcked up a little bit that you know, some
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: of those guys stand out, maybe Kittiyama min Wu, Howtong
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: those guys there that have been big names or decent
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: results in the last couple of weeks, And that sort
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: of builds out two nines four sevens or like three
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: nines three sevens, Like you can do a couple different
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: ways that you could see it happen. Any any final
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: thoughts or any further thoughts on that before we talk
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: about how to leverage it.
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think the best way to approach this
• 46:35
  Speaker 3: conversation is to say, there's a truck build with Scotty
• 46:37
  Speaker 3: and there's a truck build without Scotty. So I think
• 46:39
  Speaker 3: the truck build with Scotty immediately like if you put
• 46:42
  Speaker 3: Scotty in, you've got seventy one hundred per per the
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: five remaining spots. So you've got to go down to
• 46:47
  Speaker 3: that range. And I think most people are gonna land
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: on Sam Stevens, a lot of gonna land on Mac Meisner,
• 46:53
  Speaker 3: a lot of gonna land on Hego or Keith Mitchell,
• 46:55
  Speaker 3: something like that, to the point where I think it's
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: worth mentioning like, if we are low on Scotty's ownership,
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: then we're also low on these guys. If Scotty actually
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: comes in at thirty percent, then Meser is probably twenty percent,
• 47:09
  Speaker 3: not eleven percent, and Stevens might be thirty percent instead
• 47:13
  Speaker 3: of eighteen percent. So keep that in mind as you're building.
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: Batilla could get to ten percent, John Perry could get
• 47:19
  Speaker 3: to ten percent if Scotty comes in higher, and then
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: the non Scotty lineups I think are going to look
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: like that at least one of Seawu, Camion Konducky. There's
• 47:27
  Speaker 3: a good chance that people are going to try to
• 47:29
  Speaker 3: get two of that group. I think they're going to
• 47:31
  Speaker 3: a lot of those builds are gonna then go immediately
• 47:34
  Speaker 3: to Chris godder Up and then probably at least one
• 47:38
  Speaker 3: of like Stevens still hego Keith Mitchell, either Hoyguard Kiddiama
• 47:44
  Speaker 3: of that group. So lots of popular plays in the
• 47:46
  Speaker 3: seven thousands put Coody and Thor Bjorensen in there as well.
• 47:50
  Speaker 3: So I think like one way to get different in
• 47:55
  Speaker 3: a non Scotty lineup would be to play three expensive guys,
• 47:57
  Speaker 3: or to play only two of them but avoid the
• 48:00
  Speaker 3: Sea Wou Camong Kindeki trio and then maybe differentiate off
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: of Chris Goddarp. So lots of options in that way,
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: but to me, that's I think like the way to
• 48:10
  Speaker 3: view the Chalk build is there's a Scottie chalk build
• 48:12
  Speaker 3: and there's a non Scottie Chalk build.
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: This is an interesting one because it was kind of
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: brought up earlier by Jerry Matt and then I think,
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: I think this has worked one time ever, to be honest,
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: and I believe it was the memorial that Billy Horschell
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: won if I recall correctly, and again it could be
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: like one or two other times, but that was the
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: one week where the complete balance build worked. It was
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: obviously a very strong field. It just had you have
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: to sort of have everything go your way. What are
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on something like that, because you mentioned we're
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: gonna get into it now anyway, Like we've talked about
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: the Chalk Scotty versus the non Chalk Scottie. We know
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: that that trio of Sea Wu Hideki Young will be popular.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: Sam Stevens fits with everything, so he's just gonna be
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: beyond owned like that. Eighteen could even end up low,
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: like you said, depending on what the Scotty ownership does,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: but just noting it, do you have any thoughts on
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: like just moving off the nine k's all together, or
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: even if you gave tim some Timmy Dubbs a little
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: extra love here, Like what if it's like five eight
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: K guys or like four eight k guys and you
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: anchor it one high one low, Like let's just talk
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: about that type of build.
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there are definitely some strong aspects of this type
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: of build. I think the number one thing that comes
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: to mind is, you know, we talked a lot about
• 49:18
  Speaker 3: like conditional ownership and combinatorial ownership all NFL season, And
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: because very few people are gonna build a line of
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: that just stacks the eight K range, you're gonna get
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: some really low combinatorial ownership. Not just across the board,
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: for like the combination of all six, you're gonna be
• 49:32
  Speaker 3: the only one who has all six, but like take
• 49:35
  Speaker 3: any group of two or any group of three from
• 49:38
  Speaker 3: your six, and your combinatorial ownership is probably gonna be
• 49:41
  Speaker 3: pretty good within that group. So that part is good.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: I think the the bad part of it, and I
• 49:46
  Speaker 3: wouldn't even necessarily necessarily say it's bad it's just like
• 49:50
  Speaker 3: a personal preference. There are a lot of guys in
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: the seven K range that I think are really good plays.
• 49:54
  Speaker 3: There are a lot of guys in the nine K
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: range that I think are really good plays. So that
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: last idea that you had where it's like four eight
• 49:59
  Speaker 3: k plus your favorite seven plus your favorite nine, I
• 50:02
  Speaker 3: think that's probably my preference.
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: I agree, And that's why I was gonna say that,
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: because it's so I want to give him a little more,
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: like to get just six eighths. And I know he
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: probably met like something along those lines because obviously there's
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: only so many guys. What is there like eleven guys
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: in the a K range. Yes, it can be done.
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: I'm just noting it from fact. I think that from
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: the back of my mind at least that you know
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: when you look at that, you know, g you land
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: on the perfect combo. I don't know or how you're
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: building or whatever, but I think what you said is perfect.
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: Where that's where people confuse, like, oh see Wu donkey
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: Chock can't play him? Well, what if you play Sea
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Wu three eight k's and two upper sevens in just again,
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: I know we're going away now from what Tim is asking,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: But my point being that's more how I would think
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: about these things, where I'd be more likely to do that,
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: versus most that have se Wu are going to have
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: at least one other nine K guy, if not two.
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: If you just have c WU, you can kind of
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: do whatever you want after that, as long as you
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: don't just what again, if you're anchoring it with sea
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: Wu and Stevens probably not the best. Again, It's just
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: little things like that that you can look at though,
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: where you can get different enough. So just using sea
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: Wu is one example. It could be cam Young for you.
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: It could be completely leveraged with someone like Hoblin for you.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: I'm just noting it that when you're thinking about it
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: from that perspective. That's more what I would do in
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: looking for like a different construction than just saying, obviously
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: six eight K guys would be unique and different if
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: you like it, roll it, but that should be what
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: you like within that range. What are some other things
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: you want to talk about when it comes to sort
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: of who's deserving of the ownership is one thing we
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: often talk about, or who the viable pivots are. Is
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: there any thoughts around that with the chalk Bill that
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: we talked about a moment ago.
• 51:33
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think up top, I'm most intrigued by cam Young,
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: and I think that would still be the case even
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: if he was slightly ahead of sea Wou, because if
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: you're not playing Scottie again, like you you're in an
• 51:46
  Speaker 3: uphill battle for win equity. And because Cam Young is
• 51:50
  Speaker 3: so much more volatile than Seawou, we have seen such
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: a higher ceiling for him, Like we've got cam Young
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: at six point four percent to win, we have Seawu
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: at one and a half percent to win. Could argue
• 52:00
  Speaker 3: that maybe we're a little bit low on Seawou because
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: he does have a history outside of the last two
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: years of being a bit of a volatile player, but
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: just hasn't been the case in the last two years,
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: so we haven't we haven't seen this ceiling from him.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: And part of that, by the way, is that he's
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: just not like ever spiking with the putter. So it's
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: really hard to have a week where you're beating Scottie
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: Scheffler's and or Shoffley, Camoon, Kindecki, all these guys. If
• 52:23
  Speaker 3: you can't have a week where you're actually making a
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: lot of putts. So I like him up top. I
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: think Got Her Up is a is a very strong
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: play like He's He's projected extremely well for us. Once again,
• 52:36
  Speaker 3: it is a bit of a week where like you
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: can avoid a lot of chalk, and I will I
• 52:40
  Speaker 3: will also make a disclaim here and say, the more
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: people who kind of catch onto this idea of I'm
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: going to stack the late Thursday wave, the more we're
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: gonna see ownership change where maybe Harry Hall and Corey
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: Connors really steam and Chris got Her Up actually moonwalks,
• 52:57
  Speaker 3: and you know Hovelin and mcne steam and spawn in
• 53:02
  Speaker 3: the trio of Ben Griffin, San Burns and Met Fitzpatrick moonwalk.
• 53:05
  Speaker 3: So we could still see a lot of movement and
• 53:08
  Speaker 3: ownership and it is worth pointing that out, particularly as
• 53:10
  Speaker 3: it pertains to the wave splits. But yeah, I think
• 53:15
  Speaker 3: to that point, like man, Keith Mitchell really stands out
• 53:19
  Speaker 3: to me because that the whole seven K range, like
• 53:21
  Speaker 3: I thought, was just phenomenal coming in. It's not just
• 53:24
  Speaker 3: that they're they're good talented players. It's also Keith Howtong
• 53:28
  Speaker 3: Nikolai actually both Hoyguards, Windham, Kittyama Thorpejornson, all of these
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: guys in addition to being very talented players who have
• 53:35
  Speaker 3: a chance to be on their own, they're all outstanding
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: when it comes to making birdies and eagles, and I
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: do think this is a course where they can kind
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: of separate in terms of just the number of birdies
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: and eagles that they make, even if they're not necessarily
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: separating from a strokes gain perspective. So I like this
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: entire group except the Hoyguards, Kittyama Clark, they're all in
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: the wrong wave. So of this group that I really
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: really like, thorp Bjornson's in the wrong wave as well.
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: It's only McCarty and Keith that are in the good wave.
• 54:04
  Speaker 3: So I think Keith really stands out to me as
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: one of the better chalk plays of the week.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, what about speaking of waves like this was brought
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: up from our guy Ryan, so that'speaking about weather. Earlier
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: in how blic Will said he has a lot of
• 54:14
  Speaker 2: interest in the PMAM waves. If you're playing like a
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: twenty max, how much would you invest in that style
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: compared to let's say one P fifty. Again, I know
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: you're playing a single entry, but just even talking about
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: just playing a wave in general, like you know, how
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: how likely are you to commit to it? And then
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: if you are committing to it, just extrapolated out what's
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: your thoughts on that kind of process.
• 54:34
  Speaker 3: That's a good question, I think for any FTN subscriber.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: This is kind of made pretty easy for you guys,
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: because what I'm always going to do is whenever i
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: see like a real wave advantage, I'm actually going to
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: go in and I'm going to change our projections and
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: that will then get reflected in the sims that will
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: get reflected in the GPP scores. So you can kind
• 54:53
  Speaker 3: of just approach it as if there is that you're
• 54:55
  Speaker 3: unaware of the weather advantage, you don't have to make
• 54:58
  Speaker 3: any tweaks because the project and the optimizer going to
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: kind of do that for you. But if you're not
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: using projections that are already adjusted for the weather, and
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: even if you are, like maybe I because I'll always
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: put context to that, right, So I'll go into the
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: ft and discord and I'll say, hey, I made projections
• 55:15
  Speaker 3: assuming a point five or a one and a half
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: stroke advantage, whatever it is for the early wave, And
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: maybe you look at the weather and you say, man,
• 55:22
  Speaker 3: I really think this could be two and a half strokes.
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: So now you go in and you say, okay, I
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: do want you know, one hundred lineups with at least
• 55:30
  Speaker 3: five of the of the of the you know, good
• 55:33
  Speaker 3: wave guys, and then you can give me fifty lineups
• 55:37
  Speaker 3: that just take the best players and do whatever you
• 55:39
  Speaker 3: want with that. So I think it's a big personal
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: preference thing. But it's really important to understand if you're
• 55:46
  Speaker 3: using projections that are already factoring in the weather or not,
• 55:49
  Speaker 3: because you don't want to double count it.
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say that that's a key component. Actually
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: it's the ship a nation. We do the exact same thing.
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: Hence the success we see in the showdown streets. It's
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: really particular and Showdown obviously we have a partnership with Sabers,
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: so the contest sims are a big important factor of that.
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: And having accurate ownership is key and that's why everything's
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: so solid. But one thing I'll say is to me,
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: it's more of it's more of a single entry or
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: main lineup or handbuild thing where if I'm already going
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: down that road of saying all right, I've got you know,
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: five guys that are on the PMAM and my last
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: choice is one or the other, and I can just
• 56:19
  Speaker 2: land on another PMAM, then I'll go for that, or
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: I'll set it up that way in some instances of
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: like the North course versus South Course or things like that.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: But in reality, when when we're already making adjustments for
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: the projections based on strokes and changes in that like
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: if it's gonna be a one and a half stroke difference,
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: if someone's still popping in the opposite wave, like that's
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: a five to one that you might end up getting,
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: but it's they're still popping for that reason, the key
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: is the ownership projections that go with it, because that's
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: gonna be where Like you said, and I will say
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: this as of right now, I think the ownership projections
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: do swing in the favor of people going PMAM. People
• 56:52
  Speaker 2: are really gonna trust that Windy dot Com report, especially
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: with the NAM and NAM and also the h R
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: shout out to our guy DJ and again, but that
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: that's the ones that people like to use, and so
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: anybody that's really paying attention again, is it gonna swing
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: in a bunch?
• 57:07
  Speaker 3: No.
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: Look at last week the Round one North Course.
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: I think Sky from etr he put out it was
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: only like sixteen percent, maybe it was twelve percent, like
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: barely anybody full stack the North Course and had a
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: huge advantage. But again, you don't always have to double
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: count because it's if it's already baked into everything else,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: it's not necessarily going to matter as much.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: So you could just take what you get.
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: But if you wanted to force a set in something
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: like one fifty to say, listen, I'm gonna do what
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: Tam b and allis just said with a hundred of
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: my lineups, I'm gonna go with whatever I get from
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: the projections, ownership, the contest sims, whatever you're using out there.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: But I'm gonna make my best PMAM pool and plug
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: in fifty lineups based off of that. So I've got
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: a good mix, then I'm okay with that. It could
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: be one twenty and thirty. However, you do your maths,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: it's your own it's your own player poll, it's your
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: own money. I'm just noting it that you you essentially
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: are double counting when you're doing it the other way.
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: If your site, which we are, is adjusting for all
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: these factors, so hopefully that helps answer that for you.
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: But I think that's important to think about as well,
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: anything else you want to talk about, just with the
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: combinations that the chalk build, anything else there, or we
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: can get to the one and done segment, the betting breakdown,
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: and then of course our leverage lane to round things up.
• 58:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think we're ready to move forward.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: How do we do a one and done? Last week
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: we ended up going with.
• 58:21
  Speaker 3: I don't think we did very well.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: No, we wan with Zal. We went with Zal. That's why.
• 58:25
  Speaker 3: Damn that sucked, honestly, Like it'd be great to do
• 58:30
  Speaker 3: well in these weeks, and there are guys who have
• 58:33
  Speaker 3: done quite well and they've built a lead for themselves,
• 58:35
  Speaker 3: but these weeks, like the way one and done works
• 58:41
  Speaker 3: now since we're counting money and the signature events are
• 58:45
  Speaker 3: just we're so much more. They just have a massive
• 58:47
  Speaker 3: person in relation to these like this events just kind
• 58:50
  Speaker 3: of don't matter. So you're like, you're I think you're
• 58:53
  Speaker 3: better off having done poorly and burning nobody than if
• 58:57
  Speaker 3: you did pretty well in these weeks. But you burned
• 58:59
  Speaker 3: a good play already. So we didn't do well.
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: But Justin Rose is going to be needed, and he's
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: definitely winning a major this year. You just got to
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: figure out which one it is. Maybe a green jacket,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: maybe it's his time, could be we'll.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Think about him. But what do you think here for
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: this one?
• 59:13
  Speaker 3: Then?
• 59:13
  Speaker 2: I like last week, you know Rose was was on
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: the list English guys like that that I know that
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: you were sort of thinking about that fit the bill
• 59:20
  Speaker 2: for maybe you could outright them, but then also in
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: the case of Rose, but also you could use.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: Them in a tournament like that.
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: What are you thinking are the options that you consider
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: for this week because we don't actually have I know,
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: it's a Scotty event first of all. Second of all,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: we don't have signature events kicking off till next week,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: so I think we go back to back right with
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: Pebble Beach and then Genesis, So we've got a couple
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: of signature events coming up, so I mean, we're not
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: really burning anything that we would burn there. And then
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: I think you've done a really good job of explaining this.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: But I mean there's certainly names within this field if
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: I just sort my price for a second of even
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: like I think you mentioned in the past, but like
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, guys like that, where they Yeah,
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: I get it, but Also, they could be in a tournament.
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: They could be in a.
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: Field where they' like the third to fifth best golfer
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 2: where you could really use them at a tournament like
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: this where you can win him one point six million
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: or something with them. So what are your thoughts on
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: one and done for this week? With everything considered?
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 3: So let me talk about Harry Hall for a seconds.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 3: I think he's like a perfect example actually of this
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 3: whole thought process. You have Scottie Xander, see Wu Cam Young, Hitdecki,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: Ben Griffin, sand Burns, Like, there are so many really
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 3: really really good players in this field. To have a
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 3: decent chance of winning, you can't just have a player
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 3: who's a little bit worse than those guys. You have
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 3: to have someone who's worse than those guys but has
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: a really good ceiling and is a really volatile player
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 3: so that when he has his a game, he has
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 3: a decent chance of beating that collection of great players.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 3: Harry Hall is the lowest volatility player in our estimates
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 3: until you get like, actually he might be okay. So
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 3: Web Simpson is the first guy going down the draft
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: can pricing who's less volatile than Harry Hall. You're just
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 3: not going to see him win in a field like
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 3: this very often. Maybe we'll see it like once over
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 3: the next few years, but it's it's extremely unlikely compared
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 3: to a lot of other players who are close to
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 3: as good as he is. So like Chris Godrup, for example,
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 3: is projected point zero one strokes ahead of Harry Hall
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 3: and more than doubles Harry Hall's win equity because god
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 3: Up has a much higher ceiling and is just more
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 3: volatile overall. So I don't want to use a guy
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 3: like Harry Hall. But I also don't want to use
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 3: any of the higher quality players because this is just
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 3: the wrong event to do. So not only is it
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: a limited purse, but they also have to beat Scotty
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 3: this week, which they're going to get in a field
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 3: of this size or an event like this later in
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 3: the season where they are clearly, as you said, one
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 3: of the three four best players, and they don't have
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: to beat Scotty, or you can use them in a
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: signature event where them doing well means a lot more
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: money earned for them and for you. And so I
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: want to go to someone who is very clearly not
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 3: in you know, the upper echelon of this field, but
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: does have the volatility so that when they play really well,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: they can actually make some noise. And so the guys
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 3: that I'm looking at, Matt McCarty is probably my favorite
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 3: option this week. I do think you can go to
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 3: Got Her Up. But like we talked about, you know,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: a week or so ago, he's already won this year.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: So the best case scenario that you could possibly have
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 3: if you use him this week is matching the people
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: who have already used him. I would rather wait and
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 3: use him when he can then exceed the you know,
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: the people who already got the great outcome from Got
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 3: Her Up. So I think McCarty steps Straka is very interesting. Now,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: if Straca starts playing really well like you did last year,
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 3: you might want him in a signature event. So I
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: think McCarty definitely is my preference there. But Minwu Lee,
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 3: Garrett Higo, Andrew Novak, Haltong Lee, like, that's the kind
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 3: of player that I'm interested in this week for one,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: and which is not super exciting. They're not likely to win,
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 3: they're not likely to get you a great week. But
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 3: I'm I'm just you know, playing the playing the game
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 3: of one and done in a minute. For the long haul,
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: not trying to get off to a hot start for
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 3: no reason.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, one, a couple of other things very quick, and then
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: we'll move to the betting segment. I'll let you take
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: that one away.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: But just noting it.
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Like the other thing about the I know it's still
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: so early, nothing to be worried about yet at all.
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: We're literally just starting the season, no signature events, said
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: anything like that, But I think the godter Up one
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: is almost like you said, you're only gonna get the
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: same thing out of him that others have. He's actually great,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: And I know it's not like we're saving for this, it's.
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: Just noting it.
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: It's like, imagine you have him later on when you're behind,
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: nobody's on him, and he can not only be low owned,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: get you back in it at a signature event where
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: no one's on him because the lower owned the separation
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: and that value of that money now also doubles down,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: doubles down on beating the previous gotter Up owners, and
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: in a week where a big name fails for them,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: so it's like double leverage almost from that perspective, the
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: other guy was thinking of, I know you used him
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: in one.
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: Already, but was Ricky Fowler.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: What's the difference, Like we thought about him a couple
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago, It's like, I'm not saving him for
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: anything else.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: Crazy.
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 2: I think this could be a spot. We know he
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: has good history here from the past, not that I'm
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: a course history truth. I care way more about how
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: he's been playing late. He's actually been horrible here in
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: the past. He WDD last year, he had miscuts before that,
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: et cetera. When he wasn't playing well. He wasn't even
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: playing well here. That was the contrary to a guy
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: like Jordan Speith, who when he had his run of
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 2: downward spiral in those few years a couple of years,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: he was still playing good at the courses he played
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 2: good at at least, and that was kind of the
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: opposite for Ricky. But I think he's interesting. I like
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: your McCarty call. I like the Hego call.
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: I think all of those guys are pretty interesting.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: People are asking HI about, like Mav McNeely, Daniel Berger,
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: Max Homa, any any more of those that you want
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: to chime in on.
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 3: Mav is too good of a player for me to
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 3: want him this week, Burger and who else?
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Burger Holma and Speith were the other three.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: I don't use Speath because if Speed starts playing well,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: that's going to be like a big development and his
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 3: his projection compared to what it would be three months
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 3: from now, could be a lot a lot larger than
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: most players, just because you know, we know what the
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 3: elite Speed looks like. So if he, like, let's say
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 3: he won this week, our opinion of Speed would change
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 3: drastically if if a lot of these other players, like
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: if McCarty won this week, he's the same guy that
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: we we think he is. He's playing well right now.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 3: We know that his A game is really good, but
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 3: we've also seen him play very well for a month
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: before and then fall off the table for the next
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: two months. So our our opinion of McCarty wouldn't really
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: change the way it would have of Speed if Spith
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 3: I really delivered this week, So I don't want to
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 3: use him. Berger is a little bit on the low
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 3: volatility side, and even when Berger was at his best,
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 3: he was a really low volatility player. But you at
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 3: least have the outcome where like, you know, he he
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: could be really good, and we've seen that he's really
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 3: accurate and his iron plays back, So like the things
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 3: that made Burger really good at one point are there
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: except for the around the green play. When Berger was great,
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: he was accurate off the tee, great with his irons,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: and really good around the greens. Right now he stinks
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 3: around the green, So I would personally rather not use
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: him here since around the green is so predictive on
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: this course. But yeah, I think not the worst idea.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, people just look.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: I think the second place last year, the twenty eighth,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 2: the past history, even the year Scott When you know,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: using Rickey Fowler as the example earlier back in the
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: day and then having that sixth place recently, would you
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 2: know would be the reason to go there? I guess
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, if you burn someone
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: like that, does it really matter to you that much?
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: To Alex this point earlier, it's like it may or
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: may not really matter. But looking for that full on upside,
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: you'd want to repeat of last year for certain, So
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: if it could happen, definitely fine with that betting breakdown.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: What do you got for us this week?
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 3: Man? I had I had Sam Stevens ready to go,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 3: and his number has just fallen too much. I got
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 3: him at ninety and now if you want the each
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 3: way on him, he's all the way down to sixty
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 3: at both places with the each way, So I don't
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 3: mind the eighty that you can get in some places
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 3: without the each way. And I think that segues into
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 3: a good conversation. Pat and I talked a lot about
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 3: how to handle the no Scottie market on his show yesterday,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 3: So if you if you didn't get a chance to
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 3: see that, I do recommend going back and watching that.
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 3: I'll give like the spark Spark notes version here real quick,
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 3: which is I think the books did a pretty good job. Actually,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 3: I think they did a really good job of adjusting
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 3: the numbers for the no Scotty market.
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: Now, the important.
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 3: Point here is when you look at Scotty's odds, and
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 3: let's let's see what is he now in the betting market.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 3: He was like two twenty to two forty when I
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 3: looked yesterday. It looks like he's still in that range.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 3: U I see. The lowest I see is plus one
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: seventy five. The highest c's plus two forty. So let's
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 3: just use plus two hundred as the example. If Scotty
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 3: were plus two hundred that would be an implied odds
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: of thirty three point three percent. Essentially, if he's plus
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 3: two hundred, it means he's gonna lose two times every
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 3: one time he wins, so one out of three thirty
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: three percent. The books do not believe that that's his
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 3: actual win probability. If the books are setting him there,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 3: they they believe his actual win probability is lower than
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 3: that twenty five, twenty seven percent, twenty eight percent something
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 3: like that. They're adding that handle to the Scotti number
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 3: to give themselves some protection so that they don't get
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 3: burned by Scotty, knowing how many people are going to
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 3: bet on it. When they make the adjustment for the
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 3: no Scotti market, they're not using that inflated percentage. They're
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 3: using their actual expectation for what his win probability is.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 3: So if you think that he is more likely than
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 3: twenty five, twenty seven percent, twenty eight percent something like
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 3: that to win, then you probably will find some good
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 3: value in the no Scotty market. And there's plenty of
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: room there, and I think this is a bit of
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 3: a misconception around the industry. There's plenty of room there
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 3: to believe that the book is underestimating his odds to win,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: and therefore there's value in the no Scotty market. And
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: yet it's still not worth just betting on Scotty because
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 3: of how much juice you have to pay to bet
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 3: on Scotty. So I think, you know, I have definitely
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 3: come around on this a little bit where I'm more
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 3: open to the no Scotty market now than I was
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 3: a year ago. But the final point to this is,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: if you have access to each way bets, the top
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: five odds don't really change when you look at whether
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 3: Scotty is included or not. And so if you have
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: access to each ways, you want the value of the
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: each way itself. And so the number that I still
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 3: like is JJ Spawn forty five to one with the
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: each Way, And it's actually a bit of a similar
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 3: bet to Rose last week, where you're kind of just
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 3: betting on talent from a guy that you haven't seen
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 3: it from this year. Spawn hasn't looked good this year.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 3: Rose missed his first cut, but it's a guy who
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: is extremely viatle. He's the second most vosatile in our
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 3: numbers this week, only behind Cam Young. But I mean,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 3: think of the think of the events that Spawn contended
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 3: in last year, they were extremely strong fields. When he
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: has his A game, he can compete with Scotty's A
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: minus game. He can win a major championship. Of course,
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: he can win the WM Open. So you just have
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: to get that from him. Obviously, we haven't seen anything
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 3: from him so far this year that suggests that it's
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: actually going to come this week, but you don't when
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: you're betting outrights, you don't need to see it first.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: It can happen any given week you're leaning into the
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 3: volatility rights. It's going back to the question that won earlier.
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 3: It's like, how much is you know, of course fit
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: in recent form way in compared to just embracing the volatility,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 3: especially in outrights. You want to embrace the volatility as
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 3: much as you possibly can, and so seeing or being
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 3: willing to bet on the volatility of JJ Spawn before
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 3: you see the great version of him show up this
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: year is doing exactly that, and it's why we get
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 3: such a good number at forty five to one on
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 3: a player that like probably should be twenty five to
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: thirty or something like that based on what we have
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 3: seen from him over the last year.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: Which is interesting.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: Too, because you could look at it both ways, just
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: in the sense of I think a lot more people
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: look at it the other way of like, if he's
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: been horrible here, if he's been horrible recently last couple
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: times out, maybe that you know the number people always
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 2: like think of it as like the number should be,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: you know, uh, sixty to one or seventy one, So like, well,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 2: it's a worse number than that. And it's not saying
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: that that's why you go and bet it, but it's
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 2: saying like, if to your point, you're looking at it
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: from the full spectrum and it's like that actually could
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: be a pretty good number. Or on the flip side,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: it's like, why is it only that number if he's
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 2: been so bad, it's because he is capable, And so
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: I like it from that perspective, not ever guaranteeing any
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: back to backs here or anything like that, but obviously
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: coming off the back of a Justin Rose w people
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: are gonna be excited to go and hit that now
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: at forty five.
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: So I like that.
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 2: Call it anything else you had from a betting perspective.
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: If not, I'll let you get into your lane for
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 2: the week. In single entry, what.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 3: Is my lane for the week in single entry, I
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: have mine. If you want to wait, Yeah, why don't
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 3: you go first?
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: Sure, mine's easy.
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Xander Schaffle and I just don't care
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: anything about last week.
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: Again, it's one week. I get it.
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 2: People see it. It's this first miscut in seventy two events.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: Whatever it might be, it's not just to be unique
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: or tricky if you actually look at a lot of
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 2: the stuff, Like it's just pretty clear that people are
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 2: gonna go to Young Sea wou Matziama, Like, it's pretty
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: obvious there I am in my non Scotty single entry
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: that I'm that I'm talking about, I'm playing here.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: I want to start with Xander.
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: I can then easily play one of those three if
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: I want to fit them in. Because people said, oh
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: I saw earlier, why would you play Camo? Why would
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: you play Zander when you Coul play se Woo? Why
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: would you play Xander when you could play cam Young?
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: Multiple comments in the chat you by the way, you
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: can play them both, So just remember that, Like that's
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: part of it. So there's that, or depending on what
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 2: I find, there's actually some really nice unique builds that
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: start with Xander and skip the nines, and well you
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: will have fomo because you'll have no Scotti and no
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: Cam Young Seawoo or Matziama in that example, or whoever
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: else you like in the nine ks.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: I just don't care.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: Like it's that that would be be saying it's gonna
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: be Xander versus them. It's not gonna be Scotty. And
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: there is gonna be tons of guys in the eights
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: and upper sevens. That's Scotty lineups can't get. So it's
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 2: doubling that, and that those three nine K or two
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 2: nine K lineups most likely can't get either. So it's
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: like again, I always look for situations like this where
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: people will worry about the victory lap of if Xander
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: sucks this week, or you're playing them off a miss
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: cut or whatever whatever whatever, I don't care. I'm looking
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 2: for scenarios. And I always use our football one of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 2: the the Bresall Jets thing on the opposite side of
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: you know, Judkins and the Browns. It's like I'm looking
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 2: for different angles. If I'm not playing Breese Hall, I'm
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 2: playing Tyrod and the receivers, and then I'm getting the
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: opposite running back. And then I'm going against that defense
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 2: that is good DFS play.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: Whether or not it works out, I don't know.
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: And to be honest, go look at your projections, Like
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 2: Xander pops off the page versus nine k guys, he's
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 2: only a few bucks more. You just don't like that
• 1:13:45
  Speaker 2: he missed a cut last week. By the way, here
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 2: tenth third second, sixteen ten said, I mean he's been
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 2: fine at this course in the past. Whether or not
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 2: last week matters, we'll find out. But it's more than
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: just the Xander pick because he's lower owned and all
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 2: these different factors. It's the other angles, like I just said,
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 2: with all the roster construction thoughts. So for me, pretty
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: simple this week, Xander Schoffle is my leverage lane.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: What do you got?
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 3: Man? I like that call a lot, and in fact,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: like I'm on the I'm on his data golf page
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 3: right now. And for all the talk of how poorly
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 3: he played last year and what a down year it
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 3: was for him, he was a very good player last year.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 3: Like he just wasn't the guy who won multiple Majors
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 3: of the year prior and was clearly the second best
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 3: player in the world, but he was still really, really
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 3: good and then he did have a win in October
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 3: with no shot link data by the way, so over
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 3: at FTN, if anything, we're probably under projecting him a
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 3: little bit. He still has a positive GPP score in
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 3: the good wave. So I love that that that Xander
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 3: levage lane call I might I might end up playing Xander,
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 3: and I don't think I would have gotten there if
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 3: you hadn't made him your leverage lane. So hopefully that
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 3: doesn't mean that we're about to see a boom in
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 3: in Xander's ownership.
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 1: I just don't think it can happen either, by the way.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: It just it's gonna be so hard for it to
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: happen with the way it all sets up. So I'll
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: take what I get move on. But to Jerry's point
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: again here that is it is true. He looks a
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: little bit disheveled. If you will, if you look at
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 2: sorta Xander in the press conference talking about you know,
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: new dad life, all that different stuff. But at the
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 2: end of the day, our man Alex over here, that
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: just bet his man JJ Spahn. He won a major
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: last season. He looks if Xander eight forty five Krispy Kremes,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking JJ spawn maybe hit up two boxes, so
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: a lot more than that. But I think at the
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: end of the day, I think Xander will be just fine.
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: I love Alex's point there too of just even win
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: the long term stuff when you look at it, like
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: when he didn't win majors, he was never a closer
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 2: and he sucked. He goes and wins two majors in
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: the same season, he's a hero. Last season he doesn't
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: win another one, it's like, oh now he's terrible. Gat Like,
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: it takes a long time to win majors. Some don't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: win any and winning multiple in the same year is
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: already crazy enough as it is, So yeah, I'm fine
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 2: with that.
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 3: Yeah, there's also like this is getting too narrativey, but
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 3: there's also a bit of an angle where he talked
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 3: about like how much that made cut streak meant to him,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 3: to the point where I think he was probably thinking
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 3: about it on a lot of fridays when I'd rather
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 3: have him just thinking about how can I shoot, you know,
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 3: the lowest score of the round and get myself in
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 3: contention and not feeling like he has to protect some
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 3: kind of streak, so that could help him. But again,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 3: it's probably too narrative one last week while.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: We're on leverage lane with no narratives, but let's just
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: add them anyway for the fun. He also could have
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: looked at the board and saw that his pal Can'tlay
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: missed the cut and was like, you know what, if
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: I'm not really gonna crush this weekend, why not miss
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: the cut as well? Go hang out with my boy.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: You never know, Xander and those guys. Man, it's funny,
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm with you on that stuff.
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: I'll let you go ahead. All right.
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 3: My lane is going to be to hammer the seven
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 3: k range. And this is tough because I, like this
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 3: was absolutely going to be my leverage lane if we
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 3: didn't have a reason to stack one of the waves
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 3: and take me off of the Hoyguards and Kiddiama and
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 3: Clark because like Anthorp Bjornson, because like those those were
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 3: my guys this week. If if I wasn't potentially doing
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 3: this wave stack. But even if I, even if I
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 3: do wavestack the other wave, there's still Harry Hall, who's
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 3: not technically in the sevens but eight to one, Corey Connors,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 3: Matt McCarty, how Tong Homa, Keith Mitchell, so there are
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of guys. And then like the second part
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 3: of this leverage lane is that this is where I'm
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 3: gonna try to bottom out my lineup. So I want
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 3: to make my lineup have like a very clear and
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: distinct advantage over Scotty lineups in the sense that I'm
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 3: much more likely to get up six for six, I'm
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: much more likely to have you know, four guys in
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: the top twenty things of that nature. And the way
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: to accomplish that is by making my strongest or my
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 3: weak link stronger than not just the week link of
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineups, so maybe like the third week link of
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: Scotty lineups, and so that's gonna be my leverage lane
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 3: this week.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: What was the sort of thought process on like the
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 2: the Hoyguards and the Kitty Almas and like obviously the
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: opposite wave I think that, But was it like mainly
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 2: due to ownership? Was it like a lot to do
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 2: with their style of game play? Like we didn't talk
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 2: a ton of course, spit off the top of just
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 2: out of curiosity when you mentioned those, because I think
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 2: if people are hearing that and now wanting to apply
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: it to whatever their lane is for their week, was
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 2: there other stuff that stood out?
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Who are the guys you mentioned it was Kittyama Wornsen.
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 3: Yeah, Kitty Aama, Thorpejornson, Wyndham Clark and the Hoyguards and
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 3: actually I mean McCarty, Keith Mitchell, howtong Like those guys
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 3: are all in this group as well. So from a
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 3: course fit perspective, the biggest thing here is that driver
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: is massively important. Distance is over fifty percent more predictive
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 3: than usual, and usually when you have either distance or
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 3: accuracy that much more predictive than usual, it steals single
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: from the other because there's there is a bit of
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 3: a trade off, right like the further you hit the
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: ball of the smaller your margin for air. Now, our
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: strokes skin driving distance and stroke skin driving accuracy do
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 3: account for that, so there's less of a trade off,
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: but you still see it in the Courseit model a bunch.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 3: But here accuracy is also more predictive than usual, about
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 3: fifteen percent more predictive than usual, So it's very unique
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 3: in that sense. It's it's reminiscent of a US open
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 3: in that sense where both aspects are more predictive than usual,
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: and you also get a crossover with the US Open
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 3: in the sense that around the green play is more
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 3: predictive than usual. When you think of this golf course,
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 3: the thing that stands out to me is there are
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of what I call high leverage holes, in
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 3: high leverage shots where if you execute, you hit the
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 3: shot you want, you're in great position for a birdie.
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 3: Maybe you even have an eagle opportunity. Think of fifteen
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 3: the par five, or seventeen the driveable part four with
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 3: the water left. But if you miss in the wrong spot,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 3: you've got a good chance to make bogie or double bogie.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 3: And part of the reason why I think around the
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: green play is so predictive here is because around the
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 3: green play has this like hidden signal of course fit management.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 3: Are you consistently missing in the right spot?
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: Now?
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 3: For around the green play, that often means are you
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 3: missing below the hole where the up and down is
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 3: really easy, as opposed to being short sighted with no
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 3: chance of getting up and down. But it can also,
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 3: of course therefore mean missing right of seventeen and having
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 3: a a chance to you know, lean into your strong
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 3: short game and get up and out for bertie, as
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 3: opposed to pulling it left into the water. And now
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: staring at bogie or double. So all of that said,
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 3: one of the things that these this group of players
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 3: does really well is they make a ton of birdies.
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 3: And when you're on a golf course where you have
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 3: a lot of holes that if you execute, you can
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 3: make birdie. If you don't execute, you're not making birdie.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 3: I want guys who make a high percentage of birdies,
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 3: and all of these guys do that at a really
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 3: high clip. And it's nice because one of like the
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 3: major predictors of how many birdies you make relatively your
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 3: skill level is how long are you off the tee
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 3: And all of these guys have a ton of distance
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 3: off the tea, so it's no surprise that they are
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 3: as good as they are at making birdies.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're already an hour and twenty in, so it's
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: like if we go another five minutes, it won't kill me.
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: But just to note it for like a couple of things.
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 2: One shoot, there was something, oh they're around the green play, Yeah,
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: that you talked about, Like that's the other thing too.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 2: Why I think it's interesting just with projections as a
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 2: whole in general, Like I know it's baked into the weather,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: and the things, But a lot of it is to
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: do with what have.
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: They done lately? Right?
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 2: And how good are they playing and so on and
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 2: so on. But it doesn't always mean they fit the
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 2: course as well. Every it's all a good player is
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 2: a good player, yeah, Scotti, Scheffler, anywhere you want to
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 2: take them. But some guys do have different skill sets
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: that are built better. So we've seen it a ton
• 1:21:13
  Speaker 2: in the past where you know, Brian Harmon or someone
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 2: is on a bit of a run and then meets
• 1:21:18
  Speaker 2: a longer course, yet the odds still don't fully go
• 1:21:20
  Speaker 2: with that, and then he still projects well and it's like, well,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: why is this guy getting all this chalk to this level?
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: Sometimes that is part of it as well. What's being
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 2: baked in is off of their strokes gained game and
• 1:21:30
  Speaker 2: how good but what have they played lately and that
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 2: sort of thing. So think about that when you're building
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 2: a lineups as well. And I never have a problem
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 2: with this. Ben Roza used to do this quite often
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 2: and talk about it. That's where sort of building and
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 2: sets we're talking about. But like the skill set lineups,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 2: that's why I asked on that group of players. That's
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: why even you know, when you have course history at
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 2: an event that's a little bit more sticky. It's not
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 2: always that those guys are popular, Like I don't see
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 2: Rickey Fowler or you know, maybe we'll see where Hedeki
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 2: comes in. But you still do have Camjung and Scottie
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 2: and see Wou and all those guys around him. But
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 2: like all those guys, think back to the year Rickey
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 2: Fowler one with the you know, over the green and
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 2: then had to click it back up and off the
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 2: concrete and move it forward and then click it up
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 2: off of that. Like, it's a lot of that stuff
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 2: of at least even if your misses are bad, you're
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 2: putting in the spot where you can make it up from.
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 2: And some guys are just better at that then others.
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 2: Again hard to predict that and put it pointed out,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 2: but just want to note from the projection side of things,
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 2: if you see something like that and it's like, well,
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 2: one guy's gonna be eighteen percent on because of this,
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 2: and there's like two guys around him, I actually think
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 2: fit the course well, or I saw this, or I
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 2: looked at my stats or models or whatever it is
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: you're using. Don't be afraid to sort of move those
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: projections around on your own, because some of that stuff
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 2: can just get you on a naturally different bill.
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 3: That's why at FTN we have baseline projected stroke skins
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 3: and then also course fit expected strokes skin that we
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 3: then blend together to make our actual expected strokes scain
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: for the week. But so like, I'll give you an example,
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 3: Sam Stevens. He's long off the tee, he's accurate off
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 3: the tea, he's very good around the green and then
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 3: the two aspects of the course FOT model that are
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 3: less predictive than usual this week, iron play and putting.
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 3: Those are his weaknesses. So on a on a neutral course,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 3: a baseline week, we would have him projected at point
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 3: four to five strokes gained here on this golf course,
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 3: it literally doubles two point nine. Similar story for Wyndham Clark,
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 3: he'd be at point one on a neutral course. He's
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 3: at point four to nine here at TPC Scottsdale. So yeah,
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: check out check out ft and Fantasy and you can
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 3: use promo code blick for ten percent off.
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: There is there anything else that you want to talk
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: about here before we get out here?
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: Don't believe so so yeah, if if man. I think
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 3: the last thing I'll say is we talked a little
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 3: bit about this already, but like ownership really could move
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 3: a lot based on on the waves, and so that's
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 3: that's gonna be basically everything that I'm doing tonight is
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 3: just kind of trying to figure out exactly what the
• 1:23:54
  Speaker 3: actual wave advantage is going to be and how much
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 3: of is the field actually going to be that there's
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 3: a wave advantage, and what does how does that change ownership?
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 3: How does that change our projection? So our sims are
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 3: going to potentially change as well. Over at FTNC. Yeah,
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 3: a lot of potential movement tonight. It's not a week
• 1:24:10
  Speaker 3: where you want to, like, you know, if you're listening
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 3: to this live, don't finish this show, build your lineup
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 3: and then call it a week. You've got more work
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: to do tonight to make sure that you're building the
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 3: best lineup possible.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: I think that's going to be something I'm looking heavily at.
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 2: We'll see as the night goes on. But befogdad Air
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 2: just want to remind everybody about the promotions over at
• 1:24:29
  Speaker 2: ship in Nation. We still have the early Bird on
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: if you want to just check it out for the week.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 2: You can go to join the nation. There is trials there.
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: The five day all access is definitely the best value.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 2: You get five days for nineteen dollars and you just
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 2: want to check out this week of PGA, get the
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: super Bowl, all of that included. But the biggest thing,
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: got to give my man props right now, he's literally
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 2: texting the discord as we speak. I'm not going to
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 2: load him up because it's for members only, but he
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: did the Boots on the Ground episode last night. Matt
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: Gannon just an absolute grinder out of these events, really
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 2: cool little tidbits, if you will.
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: So instead of Tambo's tidbits, we.
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: Got boots bullets and he's got points. He's literally walking
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 2: around on the course as he's following Scotty Scheffler with
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: Brooks Koepka and Travis Kelce right now in the pro
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 2: am and being able to see sort of what these
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: guys are up to, what they're talking about.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: He's inside the ropes with them.
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: Yesterday was right next to EVR on whole sixteen with
• 1:25:16
  Speaker 2: the stadium set up, as EVR put it to, like
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 2: a foot So that was a cool video that he
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: had in the discord, but we're over there chatting about
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 2: at a ton. He's got the bullet points up right now
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: for almost seventy five golfers, so little things you can
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 2: pick up on or see, or things that he's asked
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 2: them or talk to him about. He's throughout there. We
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 2: still have all the other content as usual, but check
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: it out. If you want to get in for the season,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: just go to single Sport PGA. There is three tiers.
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: You can get the content only for his lowest twenty
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: five bucks a month. You can get it with Sabersim
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: for as low as twenty nine dollars a month, and
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 2: then if you want to add in with Rick run Goods, tools,
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 2: build models, all that stuff and more less than fifty
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: dollars a month, just forty five bucks a month for
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 2: all of that. So check out ship at nation dot com.
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: Alex.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: If you don't have jjspond winner this week, you are
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: going to get crushed.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 1: But congrat agate man.
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: Honestly, last week is such a sick on justin Rose,
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: I know a ton of people benefited from that. If
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: you guys haven't checked out all of Alex's stuff, make sure.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 1: To do so.
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: Follow him over on X. You can follow me on
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 2: X at Totagg and Tambo. We'll be back next Wednesday,
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: same time, ten thirty am Eastern. That's gonna do it
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: for this week, guys on Leverage Lane for Alex and
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 2: for myself. Totagg and Tambo led ship it