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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 5 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: I am live from my Tommy John home studio. I'm
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: joined as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: my BFF, professional better, Simon Hunter and Hols.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: I'm in Hello, Chad, how are we doing, dude?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: It's going to be a great day today, especially this show.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: I feel like there were two games in particular that
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: I cannot wait to dig into, one of which we
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: discussed you were being bullied. I wanted you to stand strong.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: One of which I came in hot and you immediately
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: flip me to other side. Today is our NFL Week
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: five Best Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: our five picks in the Favorites one hundred thousand dollars
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Pick Some contest presented by BET three sixty five.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Can still sign up Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: will also get into the Foxhole give out. Are still Undefeated,
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls Bet of the Week discuss Simon's
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted money Line Underdog Parlay, which cast
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: cashed last week, the Underdog Round Robin, and so much more.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in, lines are moving, decision need to
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: be made. As our volume podcast, boss Colin Cowherd likes
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: to say, there's a sea of money out there.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, don't get me wrong, I'm going to
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: be generationally wealthy.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: three six five and now new Bet three sixty five.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets when you
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: ten dollars, place a bet for five dollars to get
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Whatever the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older in present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off. In Iowa terms, conditioned
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we need to give a note
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: at the top of the podcast because Evan has some stats.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: I think a lot of us have been feeling like
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: these numbers are so tight. If you have been feeling
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: like every line is two, three, four, or five, you're
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: not wrong. This week, only two of the fourteen games
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: on the slate have a spread of six or more.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: Nine have spreads under a field goal. Looking at next week,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: every look aheadline is under a touchdown. If you think
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: that kind of parody is normal, it is nine. The
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: average spread for an NFL favorite this season is four
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: point two points per game through the first four weeks.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: That's the lowest number since the NFL strike season of
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighty. To take out that strike season, it's the
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: lowest since the fall of nineteen sixty during the campaign
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: for president between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon. That's insane.
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: And they may well ask why choose this, as I'll
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: go on, Why climb the highest mountain? Why fly the Atlantic?
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: Why does Rice play Texas? Not because they are easy,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: but because they are hard? Because that challenge is one
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: that we're willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postponed,
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: and one we intend to win.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: Does it feel like it's been harder or are we
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: making more of it than it is.
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't say harder is the right verb.
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: I would say it's than the league's ever been more competitive,
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: which I love.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: This is a weekend.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: If you're into college football, you can probably take this
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: weekend off. You're not really getting that in the NFL
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: right now, right we have a lot of really good
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: close games.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: That's the best part about this league.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: And you know, sometimes people say it makes it tougher
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: for betting, but not meet chat. I see a lot
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: of value this week, So I'm excited to dive into
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: these games me too.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I feel good. I actually felt like we were looking
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: at some games and finding some real clarity. There's gonna
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: be some real distinction between pros and Joe's and games
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: that are bet and ugly. As always, on Thursdays during
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the season, we like to hear how the wise guys
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: responding to our Tuesday conversation. I think that's especially true
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: this week. We had a lot of questions on Tuesday.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: We were wondering what the feedback would be the lines move.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Based on our conversation Silon, the pros feel compelled to
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: weigh in. Let's do it, Sharp Colls.
• 5:20
  Speaker 4: Hello, who's there.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do man?
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start just where the pros are split right now.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: We talked earlier in the week about this Panther Chicago game.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: The professionals are split on that game. They like both
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: sides for various reasons. Sam could be said for this
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: Jaguires Colts game we talked about earlier in the week.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: That's a really split game. Denver Raiders a game we
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: talked about. That's another game that's really split. Talked a
• 5:49
  Speaker 2: lot of professionals forty nine Ers, Cardinals, same deal. There's
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: there's people on both sides. Both are both guys are,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: you know, taking positions on what they believe in. And
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: you know this last one, this Chief Saints game. Shockingly,
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: I thought it was gonna be pros Joe's it's actually
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: a pretty split chat. I know some professionals that actually
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: liked them match up for this Chiefs team here, I
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: think it's more about fading. Derek Carr. So interesting to
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: dive into all those ones. For us, the pros, I
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: lined up with a lot of sides we loved, right.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: They love the Rams a game we talked about. They
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: love the Bengals the game we talked about. They love Houston.
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: That's another one we talked about in the game. I
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: kind of am getting you there, but I'm not sure
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: you're totally committed yet. Is Pittsburgh. That's just the pros
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: love this Pittsburgh side. The public absolutely loves the Dallas side.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, you're definitely right. This is a big Pros
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: versus Joe's week. It's very split, and it scares me
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: a little bit because the public there du chat, they've
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: been taking a beating this year. They are definitely overdue
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: to have a good week. So will it be this week?
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: I hope not.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the public has been getting slammed this year. I
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: can't remember the exact number. I know Evan. As soon
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: as I said that, Evan put his fingers on the keyboard.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I can see it in the screen. He's checking the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: latest stats to see how the public is doing this year,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: and he'll put it in the chat. But I know, Look,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: last year was the best year the public had ever had.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: This year, the public has been getting slammed through four weeks.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: I'm glad they raised some of these games the betting public,
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: so fifty one percent of tickets or more twenty two
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: and thirty eight and two against the spread this season.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: So look, that's that is the worst start for the
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: betting public through the first four weeks in the last
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: twenty years. By the way, how amazing is Evan Abrams
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: that before I even finished the sentence, he already had
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: the stat in the chat thirty seven percent against the spread.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: That guy is a freaking magician, Simon. This is why
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: when we do live events, people want Evan to sign
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: their authentic NFL jerseys. True, he's amazing. That Pittsburgh game
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: is interesting. I'm glad you brought it up. I definitely
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: want to talk about that one, all right, Carolina Chicago.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: It's I I understand why the wise guys are split
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: for us. It was see you.
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: I can't believe.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: I can see it. You know why, I can totally
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: see it because look when we talked about it Sunday night,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: and we loved the Bears at five.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: That was the plays.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, we love the Panthers at five. That was
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: the play. It was a one number play. It got
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: back down to three and a half and then it
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: came back up to four. So I could see why
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Wise guys were coming in on the three and a
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: half and from a matchup perspective makes perfect sense, right,
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Like the the Bear strengths play to what are now
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: some strengths for the Panthers. The Bears are great in coverage,
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: great in pass rush, right, so they can do things
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: to Andy Dalton and maybe he has a confront so
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: far in the games that he's played in stabilizing this team.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: The Panthers are probably first or second in a run blocking.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: The Bears are not very good against the run, So
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I do think that's an advantage for the Panthers, and
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: if they're smart enough to game plan to the Bears weakness,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: they could change the peace of this game and keep
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: it a little bit closer. Meanwhile, the strength for the
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: Bears potentially could be Caleb Williams, who has been improving
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: getting the ball downfield against a team that is twenty
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: sixth and coverage. So I can see why wise guys
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: see both sides of this.
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know, going back to Evans article. He
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: talked about how Caleb Williams we've never had let him
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: one pick start the way he started. Right, He's three
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: to one against the spread. You know, three games they've
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: been the favorite on the spread, which is pretty wild
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: to think will be the fourth game now that he's.
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: A favorite on the spread.
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: So you know, all the hype, all the public being
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: all over this team, You're right, like this has been
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: a really impressive start for this Bears team. I can
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: see why, you know, the public is still going to
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: be backing this spare team. I just from a betting perspective,
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: You're right, it's just like man at three and a half,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: I guess that makes sense to be on the Bears,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: But any other number you got to take Panthers, especially
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: now that it's back up to four. So I just
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: don't know if this's gonda up want to be one
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: of our fives now because I just don't really have
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: confidence in this number. But it is a game. I
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: bet on the Panthers, and maybe I'll end up being
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: a money line around Robin. But it just it's just
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: the lust and the love I've had for this number
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: on Sunday is kind of where off by the time
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: we've hit Thursday.
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: Here.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Well, listen, you're still young, but you less than love.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: It just doesn't last that long when you're old like me.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: It really I'm thirty years in at this point, so
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I can understand why I could continue to love the
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: Panthers and why at this point the Pan' I don't
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: think it'll end up this way right now. The Panthers
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: are my biggest bet of the weekend, but that's also
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: because I bet him at plus five. So I will
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: probably pile more money into some of these games that
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: we're going to be talking about, including one I think
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: that will surprise you as we get closer on I'm
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: not uncomfortable with the Bears with the Panthers being one
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: of our five. If we end up getting it at
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: four and a half, it's not going to be four.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: It's going to be four and a half or three
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: and a half. So you know, Buffalo Houston, like this
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: was a wait and see game for us. We wanted
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: sort of the hope expectation that the line, the line
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: may go up a little bit we get a bigger
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: number on Houston. There are some places where it's at
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: one and a half. We like the line flipping in.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: The Texans favor teams to open and as an underdog
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and close as a favorite. So in this case, the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Bills have historically struggled to cover that number. Basically, there's
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: seventy one and one hundred since twenty nineteen. This week,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: We've got a few candidates there. Pittsburgh, we'll talk about
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: that one. Green Bay talk about that one. Washington, we'll
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: talk about that one. Baltimore, we'll talk about that one.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: So interesting here, I'm liking Houston more and more.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: I do really like Houston. I would just say, you know,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: talking to professionals and hearing their reasoning for being on
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: the Bills even at this number, still this late into
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: the week, it's all sounds them trusting Josh Allen more
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: in this spot after a loss. I think even Evan
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: had it like he's he's good at bouncing back after
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: those type of games, but not so much at covering
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: in these type of games. Right, He's good at winning
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: them straight up. And that's what's tough here is this
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: is a straight up winner number. Right at plus one
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: and a half, you have a little bit more wiggle room,
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: but when it's just plus one it's like, Okay, we're
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: betting on Houston to win this game, Like there's no
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: real action here on the spread at plus one, so
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: uh yeah, in our contest, this will probably be plus
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: one and a half. My dream was that, right the
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: public would come in heavy on this Bill team when
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: we would get a really good number at plus two
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: plus two and a half on this Houston team, the
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: professionals have just kept it down right. Anytime it's even
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: crept up close to two, they've kind of hit it
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: back down a one and a half at a lot
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: of these public books. So look at that matchup wise,
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: we talked about it. I wanted to see Joe Mixon
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: in practice. Unfortunately he didn't practice yesterday. With what time
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: we're doing the show out right now, we just don't
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: have the information if he's going to be out there
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: for their practice. I believe it starts either at two
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: or one thirty Houston's practice, so we'll know better info after.
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: This show's over.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: But even if it's cam makers, I can still in
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: my mind lie to myself be like, oh, well, he's
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: good enough to make this war. But yeah, when you
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: go back and watch that Bill's Ravens game, it is
• 14:05
  Speaker 2: pretty damning how you can really attack the middle of
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: the field.
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: And the tape might be out now on this Bill's.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Team, So gonna be interesting if McDermot can make a
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: adjustment here and you know, fix this defense in a
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: one week turnaround on the road and back to back weeks.
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: But yeah, like we like the spot for Houston.
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: We talk all the time.
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: We like CJ as a dog. Right, he's six and
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: three in his career as a dog. I think he's
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: three and eight or three and seven as a favorite.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: So for us right in the wave that is this
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Houston team, you expect this to be a good spot.
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: They didn't play well against the Jacksonville team, but they
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: found a way to win. This is a game you
• 14:43
  Speaker 2: assume they'd start playing better because the matchup does favor them.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: And on the flip side, there's a reason that Bills
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: are been the conversation for Devanta Adams. As fun as
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: it is, having a bunch of nameless guys and trying
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: to make it work, you do need someone on third
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: down you can depend on. And who knows if Josh
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: set it to his coaching staff or the owner or
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: the gym or whoever, that he wonts someone like that
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: on this team, because they should be going after someone
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: like Devont Dams, Like, this team's too good, Josh Allen's
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: too good to waste a year.
• 15:11
  Speaker 4: So the Spills team, Chad, maybe this is the time
• 15:15
  Speaker 4: we do attack.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: And I think we maybe overrated them a little bit
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: because they played three bad teams to start the season.
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: So this is another great test for them.
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: On the same side for Houston, like, we'll get a
• 15:24
  Speaker 2: nice gauge of what this Houston team is because they
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: got absolutely rolled against that Vikings team. So yeah, we're
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: basically just playing the number here, playing the dog at
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: plus one plus one and a half.
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: Look, the numbers matter, especially when we put it in
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: context with what Evan said in his notes earlier about
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: parody has never been more evident with the spreads being
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: historically low, right, And just look at the Cowboys Giants
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: game on Thursday night. We loved the Cowboys when the
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: Cowboys were at four four and a half before the game,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: and then over twenty four hour that was like Tuesday Wednesday.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Over the next twenty four hours, it bumped back up
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. It got up to six
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: in some places, if you got the best of the number,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and that's never been more important. That half point when
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: the spreads are this small, means so much. The Cowboys
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: won that game by five, Aubrey missed the field goal
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: to put them up by eight. That's the difference. And
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: when the spreads are as small as they are, half
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: a point is by a percentage margin because that much
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: more important when you're trying to make these decisions. So
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: the difference between one and one and a half, in
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: again where Josh Allen historically doesn't cover, is the difference
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: between winning and losing. If you like the Texans in
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: this game, I think it's worth it to try to
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: find a one and a half somewhere. I do agree
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: Nico Collins is just a monster right now and CJ.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Stroud can find some of that third down mojo in
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the middle of the field against a Bill's defense that
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: really doesn't have linebackers and more importantly, doesn't have any
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: safeties right now who can play with any effectiveness against
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: someone like Nico Collins.
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: Take Dell, Take and Dell.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure I can convince myself that Cam
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: Ankers can do what Joe Mixing can do. There is
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: a massive difference, but I can I can convince myself
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: that Joe Mixon if if he is, if they have been,
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: if Demiko Ryans has said Joe Mixon is day to day,
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: which is what he said earlier in the week, didn't
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: practice on a Wednesday, which is a veteran thing. It
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: might be right if he doesn't practice today, I still
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: might be able to convince myself that he's playing this weekend.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: I'm putting Houston down just as like maybe maybe, but
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: it's definitely not Foxhall. All right, one game, this was
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: your assignment, says Baltimore, since he sincey two and a half. Wise,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: guys coming in on the Bengals. If you made it
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: the Simon says it three, it makes perfect sense. Like
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: it's not technically a bi low Sell high spot right now,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: certainly a cell on the Ravens and a Bengals team
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: that has played well offensively the past few weeks. I
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: do like that you mentioned Burrow as an MVP candidate
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday. Currently twenty two to one. Reminder, in this spot,
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: home Division dogs fifty four percent against the spread since
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. In September and October, the past ten years
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: sixty percent against the spread. The real question is there
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: are some books Simon where the juice is indicating this
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: code go back to three. Do people wait for it
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to get back to three or do they just take
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: the two.
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: And a half.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: I'd wait, how does the public not keep coming in
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: on this team, especially where you know people have more
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: access to the numbers everyone just looked at the basically
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: the look at right now is the Bengals are one
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: of the worst teams against the run on football, and
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: that's exactly what the raven was gonna do. So I think,
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: you know, most fans are gonna hear that this whole
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: weekend and comes Sunday. I think it's gonna be too
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: tempting for them to not take this Ravens team at
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: minus two and a half, especially where you know, one
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: of my favorite stats ever is is if it's Lamar
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: and it's under a field goal, he's up to what
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: twenty four and seven now against the spread in the
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: spot when he's either under three or an underdog. So
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: you know, the trends point to it too as well.
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: We're really just playing the city team that they're gonna
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: be able to figure out this Ravens team and just
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: make them one dimensional. Right, everything I've read and seen,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: it's just like they know what they need to do.
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: They need to just load the box and try to
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: make Lamar beat you with his arm.
• 19:44
  Speaker 4: And you know, the key to that offense in the
• 19:47
  Speaker 4: Ravens is all the misdirection.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: When you go back and watch that Bills game, half
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: the team is going to the left, the other half's
• 19:52
  Speaker 2: going to the right, and there'll be none in the middle,
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: and they would just run it up the middle. Then
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: when if they would have guys stay in the middle,
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: Lamar would read it and they just take it out
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: to the right. It was everything they wanted to do
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: in that game that kind of had.
• 20:03
  Speaker 4: Them off tilt.
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: And you know in this matchup, I could see the
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: censing out really being thrown off by it.
• 20:08
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: They see Lamar twice a year every year. They kind
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: of know what's coming at this point. So I'm not
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: shocked that this numbers come down just because I knew
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: the professionals would come in on the three.
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: The shocking part of it is even like the Joe.
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: Public books moved at two and a half, So that
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: was pretty shocking to me that they're they're inviting all
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: this Ravens money, which means the books are taking their
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: own position on this one because they knew as soon
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: as that Sunday in that game ended, they're like, okay,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: this is gonna be one of our biggest needs for
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: the sides. Right, they knew everybody's to come in so
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: heavy on this Ravens team just because people were, you know,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: all week we're talking about the Bills the best team
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: of football, Josh Allen's you know, the MVP.
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: That's just how this league works, right, so weak the week.
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: So yeah, for us, Jed, this is just a prime
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: spot where even if Cincinnati gets rolled here, we were
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: never gonna dodge this bullet. Like we love playing these spots,
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: playing these was these home divisional dogs, So contest Deviso
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: is hoping we're gonna get spoiled and get a three
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: and a half because that would have been such a
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: key number in this game. But it feels like we
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: have to bite the bull and just take it two
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: and a half.
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we are. I agree with you. This is going
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: to be a contest play. Yeah, there's really there's no
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: question it's the right spot to play. The Bengals as
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: scary as it is. I I the the thing that
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: will make us think twice is that Lamar Jackson stat.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: If not for that Lamar Jackson stat about a short
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: favorite or an underdog, I don't have any hesitation at
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: all playing the Bengals really at almost any number between
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: two and three, two, two and a half or three.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: But that gives me a little pause. I think the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Bengals are the right side, but that gives me a
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: little bit of pause.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: No, I agree, I mean, honestly, it's it's why I've
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: just been riding this this Ravens team last two weeks,
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: like they've been really good to me. I know we
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: haven't had the contest, but like you know, me person,
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: I had been betting them. So this is just this
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: is part of the game where it's like eventually the
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: value gets too high, and I think it's gotten too high.
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: You're on this this Ravens team.
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: The next game that we got to talk about, we're
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: betting means doing bad things that make you really uncomfortable.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: Cleveland at Washington, it wasn't three and a half came
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: down to three, trending back towards three and a half.
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: All the money, all the tickets on Washington talk about
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Bilo sell High. I hate this, I hate it, I
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: hate it, but at some point we have to fade Washington,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: and in this game, it's either Cleveland or to pass.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Like there's no there's no other option here.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: I took another option I ended up taking. I told you,
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: I took Washington minus three.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: And it's just I think it's a mistake, big mistake.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: It probably is, But I can't find a reason to
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: bet Cleveland.
• 23:03
  Speaker 4: Like even when I went through.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Evans trends, there were no like huge trends. You got
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: to ride these trends to bet this Cleveland team here.
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: I think we're all betting it just because the books
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: coming into the year, and myself included, we're down on
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: this Washington team. Everyone's thinking, Okay, they've overcorrected at this point,
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: and my view is is, I don't know if they have.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: Like to me, this number feels right for how bad
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: this Cleveland team is, it's they've only they're only getting
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: worse every week. And you're really, if you're making this bet,
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: you're really betting on Jim Schwartz figuring out Jayden Daniels
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: Like there is there is no world where if Washington
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: gets over twenty one points, does Cleveland stay in this game.
• 23:44
  Speaker 4: I just I have no faith watching Desaun Watson.
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: I mean that Vegas team is not that good and
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: they had no Max Crosby, and he looked terrible once again.
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson, I mean he is.
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: I think he's like the fifty third graded QB right
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: now in the NFL, which sounds insane, I even real,
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: but that's a real statu It's how bad he's been
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: this season. So I get it, Chad, like the professional
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: me wants to take him. That's why it's like I
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: barely even really bet this game because I have no
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: read on it where I know I'm probably doing the
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: wrong thing and I'm overvaluing this Washington offense, but it's
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: like they match up well offensively and then defensively. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 2: don't really know if Watson don't attack this weakness of
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: this team in their secondary.
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: So you're right, this is probably where I should bet him.
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: But it's like I can't love every dog, and this
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: dog I just don't.
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: Like, we don't know about David and Djoku. If he
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: will be back after three games, I think that would
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: make a huge difference. For Deshaun Watson. I think we
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: need another day of practice to know what his status is.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I will give you one stat that plays to playing Cleveland.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: Teams covering the spread by more than five points per game,
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: which is the Washington Commanders only cover forty three percent
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: of the time when facing teams with a winning percentage
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: of less than sixty percent, which is the Cleveland Browns.
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: So there is a direct by low sell high stat
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: to help us make help us be a little bit
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: more comfortable betting Cleveland. I don't think I want to
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: bet them at three. If I'm going to bet him,
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: I want the three and a half, and it's probably
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: going to be a quarter unit to half a unit way.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: It's I don't know. I don't think it's gonna be
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: a big one, but I think we're gonna have a
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: hard time finding the final five, and this one could
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: be one of the last ones out or the last
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: one in.
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: That's actual worry. I already got our five or six
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: if you want to, but we'll get there.
• 25:47
  Speaker 4: Don't worry. This does not need to be one of
• 25:48
  Speaker 4: our five. I could good.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: I can't cheering on Watson this Sunday, the autumn win
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: is a rader pillaging.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Just Las Vegas at Denver. I don't know what's happening
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: with this game, you said, like you pointed out, this
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: is a game that's split. Are we fading the Broncos offense?
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Are we betting against sort of the short division home favorite?
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Don't forget last twenty years, that's forty five percent, just
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: as a short home favorite of three points or last
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the past since twenty twenty that's forty four percent. I'm sorry,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: forty two percent. So there is a trend here to
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: fade the Broncos. But Jesus Christ, like the Raiders offense
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: is terrible, The Broncos offense is terrible. The Broncos defense
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: is playing at an elite level. I know why this
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: is split. We were pretty heavy on the not heavy,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: but we were intrigued by the Raiders Sunday and then
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: early in the week.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just really liked the especially when I got
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: up to plus three. It's like that feels like way
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: too much respect to bo Nicks, who just won two
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: straight road games.
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: Now they're coming home, and.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: You know, I get the reaction to it, and historically,
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: I mean even haven't had it in as notes, I
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: mean this Raiders team, I think they're twelve and one
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: the last thirteen against the spread against this Denver team,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: like they usually own Denver, that's the one thing in
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: this division they do well against. I don't know what
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: to do either, Chat. I think we're just scared because
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: the number doesn't make sense, Like why there's no sense? Yeah,
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: Like some books do have it at one and a
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: half though, so like to me, that gives me a
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: little more confidence where it's like, okay, at least you know,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: some some books are taking professional money on this Raiders
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: team and they're bending down because I don't get it either.
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: Like I also thought maybe it's DeVante Adams stuff the
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: drama in the locker room, but apparently does not even
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: let him come into the facility right now, So it's like, okay,
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: that's not an excuse yet either.
• 27:54
  Speaker 4: So I don't know what to do either.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Like the problem is CHAT with this this sometimes it
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: is too easy and we should just try us the
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: number and be like this isn't a trap. This is
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: a good number.
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: We should bet it.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: But I think we both were just a little wary
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: of this one. There's something a little off with this
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: number and the fact that I know that there's professional
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: the other side, you know, they kind of talk about
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: what you're talking about here. They really like that defensive
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: front for Denver. They think they're gonna give them trouble
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: to this Raiders team. On the flip side, they think
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: they'll little move the ball against this Raiders team with
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: bo Nicks in this offense. So I get where they're
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: coming from. I just I can't believe bon Nicks is
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: a three point favorite over an NFL team right now.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: So that's my hardest one to adjust here. It's like
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: divisional game. The Raiders aren't that bad, right, they're two
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: and two. It's just, man, I can't believe this number
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: is two and a half three. It is.
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: It's the weirder number of the week.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: It's funny the way you say bo Nicks. You say
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: it with this weird aura and tone of disdain and disgust.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: I can't believe bone Knicks is gonna be a three
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: point favorite.
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: It's like it's Will Levis. It's Will Levis with Sean
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Payne and as his coach. Honestly, that's what he is
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: to me. It's just like this guy has so much.
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: To work on.
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: You see that, you see little sparks, right, He's got
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: good arm, he's got he's a good runner. There are
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: things there to like, but overall, it's just like he's
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: not even in the same conversation as you know, Jade
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: and Daniels or or Williams.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: It's just like, there's a reason people talk about him
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: being a second round pick that Sean Payne reached for him.
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: You're kind of seeing it earlier in the year. But
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: I don't want to knock him two back because he's
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: sitting here at two and two, like, that's that's pretty
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: impressive for the rookie.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: What I'm gathering is we don't feel great about this
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: game yet. We probably need more interesting if.
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: This is one of our three though that or one
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: of our five. I should say on Sunday to people,
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: I was.
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: Gonna I was just gonna say exactly what I my
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: next sentence, like my wife I will be talking and like,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: the next sentence I'm going to say is the answer
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: she wants. She never lets me get there.
• 30:00
  Speaker 4: Your wife, thanks, So it's so the.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Next sentence was going to be I feel like on
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: Sunday We're going to have a hard heart to heart
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: about this game. That's what I think.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: It's right on the edge. It's it's number tens right now.
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: Don't be bullied by this next game, Simon, Arizona, San Francisco.
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: Do not be bullied. You said you were getting bullied.
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: You shouldn't be bullied. The wise guys are seeing, they're
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: seeing ghosts. Okay. Yeah, the Cardinals were just blown out
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: teams to lose by twenty eight plus points the previous week,
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: and our dogs are four more sixty two percent against
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: the spread the past twenty years. The Niners just one
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: big teams to lose by seventeen versus a team who
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: won by seventeen the previous week, sixty percent against its
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: spread the past twenty years. Division dogs fifty six percent
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: since twenty twenty. Give me the Arizona Cardinals at seven
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: and a half.
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: All right, we can put him in. It's the most
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: public dog of the week, Chad. I don't know if
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: Fieldc's steping in it.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: It's not. It's the cowboys, the cowboys and the public dog.
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: Yeah, that's fair.
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I just I look at this one, and I
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: told you my issue is what the pros are seeing
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: is brock Purty is playing an MVP level, right, and
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: you know they they're two and two. None of that
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: is his fault. He's he's I mean, I guess you
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: could say the Vikings game, he didn't play great, but
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: overall he's just played amazing this season and all the
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: numbers back it up, like he easily is a top
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: three quarterback right now football, and another two might be
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: Jane Daniels and Sam Darnold, which is just crazy to think,
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: but that's just why this season's been. He's been playing
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: at such an elite level despite all the injuries to
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: this team. The only reason I'm coming around to Arizona
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: is because of the injuries to this forty nine ers team. Right, Like,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: even kidd, I know he's been playing. He's not right,
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: Debo is not right. You know we already talk about
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: they lost Hardgrave up the middle, like that was their
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: number one run defender. It's just Kyler Man, Kyler Murray Chad,
• 32:10
  Speaker 2: He's just I'm fucking disgusted with the kid, right, even
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: going back watching that game, he did look he looks
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: so disinterested in that game in every way, and the
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: coaches made zero adjustments with Arizona. So it's like Okay,
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: they're they're they're weak. They're weaker at the coaching position,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: they're weak at the QB position. And that's why this number,
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: to me makes sense. There's a reason this number is
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: so high despite all these injuries to this forty nine
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: ers team. So I'll bet it with you, but personally
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: I might end up on the seven forty nine ers.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: I haven't put a penny on this game yet, but
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: it's like, if you feel strong about Arizona, I could
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: probably get there because this is a huge number in
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: this league. We see a time and time again, these
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: big these big numbers cover like these big spreads if
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: you have a comparable quarterback. If you're not the Patriots,
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: usually they cover these numbers. Right.
• 32:57
  Speaker 4: They're able to keep these games close, especially with.
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: These refs bull in the whistle all the time. So
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: it's hard for me to stay away from this one chat.
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: I want to be on Arizona with you. I just
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: I don't have the confidence that you have on it
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: right now.
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: Your cat was up all night and it was, you know,
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: kicking things, and I feel like you're super tired and
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: I can bully you into Arizona right now.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: The other thing I will say, Jen Heat, I'm trying
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: to give you all these warnings, all these signs. It's
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: like turn around that end, no road ahead, the bridge
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: is out, and you're just like, we can make this jump,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: we can make this jump.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Come on, And then then I'll be like, why didn't
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: anybody tell me?
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah? Exactly.
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: The other thing I'll say is Trey McBride is going
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: to play in this game. He hasn't played a big
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: deal and that that to me, is a huge deal
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: for Kyler right as as as athletic as he is,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: he has not been able to incorporate Marvin Harrison Junior
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: in any consistent way beyond the first quarter. And having
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Trey McBride as his safety blanket, I do think makes
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: a bigger difference. I'm putting it on the list. I
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: think we're going to have after the show, We're going
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: to have a longer conversation, try to figure out which
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: ones are going to be the final five. We'll put
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: it in the contest. People can see that as soon
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: as we put in today.
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: Now, if you're stick your flagging in, this is Chad's
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: this is when Chad's five, I'm not going to stop
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: you because like you said, it's a good number.
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: It's seven and a half. I want to be there.
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: I'm just the spidy senses are tingling, brother, they're just
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: tingling on this one.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but they're also tingling on another game. And I
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: gave in and and we're going to talk about it
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: right now. It is our Big Balls bet of the Week,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: John has the support, great game, start with great underwear,
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: and Tommy John makes the great assignment. We are undefeated
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: with our Big Balls bet of the week, including the
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: Chargers at seven and a half last week with no
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: offensive tackles, missing their best defensive player, a quarterback on
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: one leg playing against the greatest quarterback of his generation.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: We can run it back with the Cardinals at seven
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: and a half. But this week the big Ball's better
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: the week Los Angeles Rams plus three hosting Green Bay.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: This was your comment to me on Tuesday. I was
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: all over Green Bay. Your comment to me, don't get cocky.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: H don't get cocky, Chad. This is where they get you.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Don't get cocky.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: It was like you said it in a way that
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: was like so endearing but also made me feel like
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: our age gap was entirely reversed, Like you're the guy
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: in his fifties and I'm the guy in my thirties.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: And that's how I talk to my younger son when
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: he thinks he looks extra good before going out, Like,
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: don't get too cocky, kid, Like you know, could come
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: back to haunt you. That's what it felt like. But
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: you were right. This line was at three. Three and
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: a half is now down to three massive pros, Joe's
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: different tier, tickets on the Packers, money on the Rams,
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: like all the stats we can get to them back
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: in the back in the Rams. Wise, guys clearly loved
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: it in the sharp calls, explain yourself.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that was typical, Like I knew a really
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: smart group was going to take a really big position
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: on that RAMS team, And I was just my fear
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: with you, even if you like the Green Bay. I
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: was like, Okay, that's fine, you liking them, don't bet
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: it at a bad number. That three and a half
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: is gonna be gone. You're gonna be able to get
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: a three if you really want a Green Bay. It
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: was kind of my pushback, but yeah, personally I would
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: not bet Green Bay. This week, I'd stay away people.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: This just feels like a little bit of a trap
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: from the sports books, and the professionals knew that right away,
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: so they came in grabbed all the three and a
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: halfs they could it could get.
• 36:59
  Speaker 4: Back there, right.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: A couple of books are now minus one eighteen, minus
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: one twenty on the three for Green Bay. So you know,
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: if you want to wait until to try to get
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: the Rams a plus three and a half again, you can.
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: I think the three is what matters here, though. This
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: feels like a game that's either gonna be the Rams
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: win it or they lose by two points. Right like this,
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: this just seems like one of those games the professionals
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: know and the books know they got a little bit
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: of a trap here, And you're right when you dive
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: into numbers and you look at the matchup, this actually
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: isn't that bad of a matchup for this Rams team,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: especially when you think about you know Williams.
• 37:34
  Speaker 4: Karen Williams is the running back.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: He's probably been a top five back this season and
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: displayed all the injuries to that offensive line, still one
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: of the best run blocking schemes. You know. McVeigh just
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: knows how to coach, up, backup lineman. It's incredible. So
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: that's a good matchup for this team. I think that's
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: the way they're going to attack Green Bay and try
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: to keep Jordan Love off the field. And on the
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: flip side, yes, you can say Jordan Love gotten a
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: little bit of rhythmic into that game, but the Vikings
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Rawson throwing anything at him right there were just simply
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: playing a prevent defense when they were up twenty one
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: points at that point. So I don't think he's right.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: I do think he is a little hampered by not
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: being able to move in the pocket as fluent as
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: we're used to seeing Jordan Love do. Because he came
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: back quick from that injury. Right, it was supposed to
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: be four to six weeks. He came back in the
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: third week. That's that's a lot. So to me, I'm
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: glad you listened to it. I don't know if it
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: was the Luck rankings or our guy Stucky and Chris
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: talked you out of it, but this I knew you'd
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: come around, and this was just gonna be a typical
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: pros Joe's game and the pros we're gonna be all
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: over this Rams team. So this This might be the
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: last gasp of the old gunslinger on Stafford with this
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: Rams team if they don't win this one. I mean
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: you talked about he's something that's definitely gonna be a
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: trading moving piece and asset towards this end of this,
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: before the trade deadline, I should say, so, yeah, we
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: love the number. If you're like us, you love the
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: Rams and you somehow didn't heed my warning and you
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: didn't get to three and a half, I'd wait and
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: just hope, hope the public keeps coming on this.
• 39:03
  Speaker 4: When you get it goes back up. So yeah, three.
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: I don't mind it being our big balls bet because
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: I do think it's going to land right under it.
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: But yeah, for the people out there like to wait
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: and always want the best of the number, you can
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: just throw a little bit here and just wait and
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: hope you get the three and a half.
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Simon, Yes, sir, you convinced me of that game all
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: on your own. As soon as we were done talking
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: about it on Tuesday, I'm like, all right, it's coffe.
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: You were coming in hot and confident on Green Bed.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: I was like, very hot, toternal, you know what.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: I'm a man of principle. I am a man of principle,
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: but I don't have to be stubborn about my positions.
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: There you go.
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: I can be flexible if someone I think is very
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: smart comes in with data that is better than mine.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: You turned me around, and by the end of our conversation,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: I think I had gone I have flipped my position.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I had gone from hardcore packers to hardcore rams one
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: hundred percent.
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: Well, it's nice to see what we were right too,
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: because if that number would have gone up the four,
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: I would have had a lot of eggle on my
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: fucking face. I would have looked like a real jackass
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: telling people not to hit that. So luckily it did
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: come down to three, and they know that heavy, heavy,
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: professional money came in on that RAM side.
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: You never look like a jackass, Simon. You are perfect
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: to me. You know who else is perfect? Our sponsor, Yeah,
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• 41:05
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh's at two and a half. I will
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: say there are places where you can get Pittsburgh at
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: one and a half, But you want to talk about
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: a public side here, Simon, Dallas has all the tickets,
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: like eighty percent of the tickets right now. This Dallas team,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: a bad defense that is thin, is now worse and
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: thinner without DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. I wonder what
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin is gonna say about that.
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: I just want to see your face. We win the
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: damn game.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: We are living Steelers defense we both believe is good
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: enough to neutralize Dak and CD Lamb. Brandon Cooks is
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: also out. This all depends on Arthur Smith trying to
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: make sure justin field isn't a hero. Just run the ball,
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: be very conservative, win the game.
• 41:56
  Speaker 4: Straight up, win this game. B win this game.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: The biggest thing we talked about this is just a
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: mismatchup team strengths for other teams weaknesses, right, and the
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: biggest weakness again, we talk at Naisma about it. Why
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: we didn't like Dallas coming to the season. They had
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: one of the worst running back rooms in football. Now
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: we didn't know that they would also defensively one of
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: the worst teams against the run of football.
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: They are.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, they are terrible against the run and now
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: you know two of their best defenders. I know they
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: haven't played like it this year, but they are.
• 42:28
  Speaker 4: You just said it.
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: Dextra Lawrence is out, Michael Parsons is gonna be out
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: for this game. Like, it just keeps adding up more
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: reasons to fade this team than the flip side. You know,
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh does have some injuries to their running back room,
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: but you know, justin Field is running that read option
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: with Cordell Patterson. I think it's going to be just
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: as effective against this terrible run defense. Like, even if
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: they prepare for it, Arthur Smith always has another piece
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: to move the counter whatever teams have done against him,
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: like he's been to me incredible this this year.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: What he's done with Justin Fields, Like.
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: You said it, our fear of Justin Fields is the
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: dumb turnovers, and he's kind of beating that out of him, right.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: I know, obviously it popped up last week with him,
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: but that was like we said, he was gonna be
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: down by multiple points. He needed a force play trying
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: to overdo it. That's not where you want Justin Field.
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: You want him to be in rhythm, to stick to
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: the playbook, to be on script every now and then.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: When he does go off script, it's not with his arm.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it's gonna be with his either. It could be
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: with his arm and going deep, we don't mind that.
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: But it's really his running ability and that's something that
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: they can really tap into here against this banged up
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: Dallas team. So that matchup is a phenomenal defensively, I mean,
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: it doesn't get any better for.
• 43:37
  Speaker 4: Pittsburgh, right.
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: They have a rookie tackle going against TJ.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: Watt.
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: This is terrible.
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: So and again we think they're gonna get down and
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: they'll be forced to pass heavily because they can out
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: run the ball against this Pittsburgh team. Pittsburgh gonna have
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: them right where they want. They want to make teams
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: pass against him. That's their biggest strengths. So the fact
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: that you can get this at one and a half, Chad,
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: how do you not take that number? So I'm not shocked.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: This is the public side, right people think after that
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh team gets embarrassed, they lose, they see, you know,
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: Dallas is on extended rest. They look like they kind
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: of got back to their old ways against Giants, where
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: it's like, why I watch that Giants game. I saw
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: two really bad teams fighting it out right. I don't
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: know if you felt the same way. It's like, that's
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: what's so crazy about this Washington thing. Washington looks so
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: much more complete of a team right now than the
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: Eagles and the Cowboys. It's just I don't really see
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: what people are betting here with the Cowboys to have
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: confidence and taking them as a dog, other than you know,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: maybe they feel good that it's Dack against Justin Fields
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: they're getting a plus two and a half number, But
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: that's just so basic, such a basic way to think
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: about this matchup here. So yeah, this I was gonna
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: not force you to make this one of our fives.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: It's like, this is the favorite I really like. As
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: much as you know, I'm okay with betting Washington and
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: minus three. I have zero confidence in the way I
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: do about this Pittsburgh favorite. So I really love this
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: number to be our favorite in our contest.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually I've come around to it. I I
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: didn't feel strongly about Dallas, like we talked about it
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night and you immediately pushed back. Not in
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: a strong way, but you at least matchup wise, felt
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: like Steelers had an opportunity to win this game. And
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: now without Parsons and Lawrence, everything is exacerbated, like the
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: matchups are even more in the Steelers favor and the
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: way you would expect the game to play out. So yeah,
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: I love the Steelers here, have no problem with it.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Like playing Mike. I don't like playing Mike Tomlin as
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: a home favorite, but I do like I do like
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: playing Mike Tomlin off a loss where he can rally
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: this team a little bit.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Get him ready to take the fail every series.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: So it feels like a good spot. And I do
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: think Mike Tomlin is just better than Mike McCarthy. So
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: I got no problem with the Steelers in this one.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: I think you and I are one hundred percent aligned.
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: All right, So those are those are four. We're probably
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: going to have inn.
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: Well, who's number five?
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know if we have four? I got, Well,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about that. New Orleans and Kansas City. I'm
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: surprised this is split. Yeah, this was my exact decision.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: We got to get in the foxhole. By the way,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: we're kind of not in a foxhole yet.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: When dow Pittsburgh for a foxhole you just said, it's
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: the most public side of the week in the alf.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Right, let's do the Steelers. Steelers were in the foxhole.
• 46:30
  Speaker 4: Love it.
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: Let's clid down into the foxhole. Beautiful. I was all
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: over New Orleans from the beginning. I betted at five
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. It got down, it got down to five.
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: I think it actually got down even lower, maybe even
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. Then it got that back up.
• 46:50
  Speaker 1: Now I'm a little worried, not because of the wise
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: guy stuff. It's a very very public dog, very public
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: the Saints.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I didn't know that. I think. I mean,
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: it does make sense though, Like I just who has
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: confidence in betting the Chiefs offense, where at least we
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: know exactly the identity of the Saints offense, right, And Okay,
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: they struggled against the Eagles, and you know, maybe people
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: are viewing them as a team that's just going to
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: be better indoors than they will be outdoors. And it's
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: the type of game where you know, the Chiefs wet
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: the field before the game, they do everything they can
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: to make the grass longer. It's a late Monday night game.
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: I get all that, And I wanted to easily say
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: the Saints team is going to be the spot Like
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: it's just the number feel is way too big for
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: a Chiefs offense that just lost the only real piece
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: to the offense that made any type of sense, right,
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: Rice was everything for them, Like, I think there are
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: big plays outside of Worthy. Obviously it was always going
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: to Rice on third down. That's always who Mahomes is
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: going to. It's like, okay, they lost him in Pacheco.
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: The identity of that offense has been gone. I mean,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: it's not Travis Kelsey. This guy has not looked the
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: same all season. And Worthy is just so inconsistent, right,
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: He's one or two touches a game, and if they
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: don't work out, he's kind of.
• 48:10
  Speaker 4: Held in check.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: So I don't really I'm trying to figure out what
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: the professionals are seeing here that that's given them such
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: confidence in this Chiefs team. And maybe it is just
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: simple as fading Dennis Allen and Derek Carr in this
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: spot in this primetime game.
• 48:23
  Speaker 4: Like, I get it.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: The Chiefs have a massive coaching advantage between Spags and
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: Andy Reid, like they're gonna be able to get Theirs,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: They'll be able to figure this out. But man, mahomes
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: playing terrible all of it. Chat, I just I can't
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: believe the pros. Like when I hear pros are on
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: the other side, I'm just like, what are you guys
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: seeing here? And like the all the reasoning, I get it,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: but I just I just at my core, I just
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: cannot comprehend not taking the Saints here, especially a couple
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: of books hit plus six.
• 48:49
  Speaker 4: On this Saints team. I grabbed it right away.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: It's just like, man, I can't believe all this love
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: for the Chief's team, and you know you saying this
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: is a huge public dog a little scary, but at
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: the same time, we're on the public side with Arizona
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: here as well, So it's like, you know, I think
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: the public has come around to these big dogs are covering.
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: Like usually maybe they wouldn't be on this side and
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: they would be on the favorite side, but the public dogs,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: these big dogs have been covering. So that's the only
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: rational I can really think of, Chad. So, you know,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: I don't love if this may be this will be
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: our fifth one, and I don't love having to wait
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: to Monday night to try to go four to one
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: or five and whatever it is. But it's a tough week,
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: Like this is a good number. We kind of like
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: might be backed into the corner and have to take
• 49:34
  Speaker 2: this number, especially if it's up to six and a
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: half in the contest.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: I think we're going to have to, and I think
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: I have one more number to put us over the
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: top here. Yeah, you know how much I love the
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: Luck rankings, and I know you like the Luck rankings too.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: We don't bet them blindly, but they did go undefeated
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: last week the Luck rankings.
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think clearly ten and one on the season
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: or something crazy.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: It's crazy about really, So there is one side this
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: week that fits into the Luck Rankings criteria, it is
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: the New Orleans Saints, and it is a massive luck difference.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: There is a difference of twenty eight spots between how
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: lucky the Chiefs have been how we got to bet then, Yeah,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: unlucky teams with a luck difference of twenty eight or
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: more since we started doing the luck rankings twenty three,
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: twelve and one sixty five percent against the spread if
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: those teams are on the road, the unlucky team seventy
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: eight percent against the spread. That's New Orleans.
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: The only thing that pissed me off when you told
• 50:53
  Speaker 2: me they're a big public dog. I'm shocked by that
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: because when I was talking to bookmakers, it was all
• 50:56
  Speaker 2: Chiefs money, especially with all the teasers and everything like that.
• 50:59
  Speaker 4: But no, that's that's music to my ears. We're definitely
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: going to have them in there.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: So we'll sort of regroup when we get to the
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: end of the show and see if we can narrow
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: it down with the ones we want to put in. Yeah,
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: but I think we got a couple that we definitely
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: feel like we're strongly leaning towards turning good weekends into
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: great weekends. It's time for the money line parlay. It
• 51:27
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• 51:52
  Speaker 1: that was Indianapolis and Tampa Bay.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Paid on the first half because they were both up their.
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: First half because they both got up by seventeen.
• 51:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: Bet three six five has that no sweat bet. We're
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: like your team that you bet on in the money
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: line gets up by seventeen, you win automatically, doesn't matter
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: what happens the rest of the game. Your Week five
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: boosted Underdog parlay Rams and Texans find the boost under
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• 52:20
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  Speaker 1: where your money line pick gets marked as a win
• 52:27
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• 52:31
  Speaker 1: So you want to bet this betted at bet three
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: six five. Right, who do you want in the round robin?
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: There will come up payday Halla lu Yo wanna pay day.
• 52:43
  Speaker 4: There will come.
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: Up payday some day. Some day there, I will come
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: up pay day.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Halla, lou Yo, wanna pay day?
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: I will come up pay day some day. Okay?
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: I mean Houston and the Rams obviously like them.
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: You want to throw the Panthers in there against the Bears.
• 53:04
  Speaker 3: I do.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: I like the number. I like it at how it'll
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: boost the odds a little bit.
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: How do we not go Vegas against the rook Well,
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: I was thinking Cincy, Yeah, love Cincy.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: To me, it's Houston Rams, Panthers, Bengals, and then it's
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: either Raiders or Saints.
• 53:26
  Speaker 2: Obviously I like the Saints because plus two hundred. But
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: once again, I'd rather just get it all and knocked
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: out before a Sunday show.
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: So let's go Raiders, all right?
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: The money line underdog round Robin last week, I think
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: we won three of the games. Houston Rams, Panthers, Cincy Raiders. Simon,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: right now, tell me your biggest bets.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: Biggest bet for sure was the Rams three and a
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: half Bengals plus three. You know I'm gonna get there
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: on Houston. I'd just been waiting for that number to
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: keep going up, So I'm slightly invested right now in
• 54:06
  Speaker 2: the plus one and a half, not heavy, and then
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: obviously Pittsburgh and the Saints.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: I've just been betting all week.
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: So once again, if that Saints number gets up to six,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be very tempted to make that one of
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: my bigger bets of the week.
• 54:19
  Speaker 4: But it's it's a game. I can be patient because
• 54:21
  Speaker 4: it is the Monday night game.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: The hope is if the public does well, you know,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: all their teasers, everything will be tied to that chief's
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: number on the Monday Night. That's just how people bet
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: their parlays. And I'll either get a six or six
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: and a half on that Saints number. So that's one
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: you can be patient with Pittsburgh. I've been grabbing anywhere
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: any book that has the one and a half. I've
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: been grabbing it when I can.
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually bet it while we were talking. All right,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: let's get to the last word with our good friend
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: Evan Abram's, senior director of research here at Action Network.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Can you please tell us some things that will justify
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: any decisions we've made today?
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: The last word with Van Abrams, we're finished talking.
• 55:06
  Speaker 5: I need to pull back the curtain a tiny bit
• 55:07
  Speaker 5: as well. So when we're setting up this segment, I'm
• 55:10
  Speaker 5: usually speaking with producer Matt Mitchell, trying to figure out
• 55:13
  Speaker 5: the games, the notes, trying to, you know, marry some
• 55:15
  Speaker 5: stuff with your picks. We have a bunch of Arizona
• 55:17
  Speaker 5: and San Francisco stuff. I mostly have to just throw
• 55:19
  Speaker 5: that out the window because I have no idea which
• 55:21
  Speaker 5: side we really like this. Since we're all over the place,
• 55:23
  Speaker 5: I'll just give you one piece of this.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: And say we like Arizona. We'll be happy with your
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: stats if you're like Arizona.
• 55:30
  Speaker 5: It was funny because Matt did want me to set
• 55:32
  Speaker 5: up something here that's anti Arizona, so I'm just gonna
• 55:34
  Speaker 5: get it out of the way since we assumed you
• 55:36
  Speaker 5: were pro San Francisco. It's just a good note, so
• 55:39
  Speaker 5: let me throw it out there. A schedule note just
• 55:41
  Speaker 5: in this spot, Arizona's played three straight at home. They
• 55:44
  Speaker 5: now hit the road for the first time. I was
• 55:46
  Speaker 5: kind of surprised by this, but those teams forty five
• 55:48
  Speaker 5: percent ATS two hundred game sample and fifteen thirty two
• 55:53
  Speaker 5: and one ATS thirty two percent last five years, so
• 55:55
  Speaker 5: recently it's been absolutely terrible. I would have kind of assumed,
• 55:58
  Speaker 5: you know, players at home and families all that stuff.
• 56:01
  Speaker 5: Then you hit the road you kind of play well
• 56:02
  Speaker 5: complete opposite. So I found that kind of interesting. But
• 56:05
  Speaker 5: let's get into the real picks here, the real information,
• 56:08
  Speaker 5: and that is Cincinnati.
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: This is probably.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: Pretty much the game of the week. And when you
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: look at the AFC North, it really doesn't matter the
• 56:15
  Speaker 5: team underdogs in the AFC North divisional games, cash Cow
• 56:20
  Speaker 5: forty five and twenty nine ats, sixty one percent since
• 56:23
  Speaker 5: twenty eighteen, best of any division. And this is really
• 56:26
  Speaker 5: the note. They are five hundred or better in seven
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: straight seasons twenty three and fourteen since twenty twenty one,
• 56:31
  Speaker 5: so really competitive almost all the time. And you take
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: the dog in these spots. Now you mentioned it earlier,
• 56:37
  Speaker 5: Lamar three points are less of a favorite underdog now
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: in the regular season, that's actually twenty four and five ats.
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: I know, absolutely absurd, but I think it's really important
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: to see the other side of this. So Burrow as
• 56:49
  Speaker 5: a dog of two plus eighteen and eight ats, and
• 56:52
  Speaker 5: he's twenty two and four in a six point t's
• 56:54
  Speaker 5: in that spot, so almost always close games when he's
• 56:57
  Speaker 5: a dog of over two points eighteen and four ats,
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: and this is one I thought was kind of important.
• 57:02
  Speaker 5: So Ravens are off this very emotional Sunday night football
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: bulldoze of Josh Allen. You would think all maybe letdown
• 57:08
  Speaker 5: spot teams after facing Buffalo. Since Allen's first season as
• 57:11
  Speaker 5: a full time starter in twenty nineteen, thirty three and
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: fifty three straight up thirty eight percent. Second worst on
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: the money line in all of football. The worst is
• 57:20
  Speaker 5: San Francisco after playing San Francisco after banging Buffalo people
• 57:24
  Speaker 5: not playing well, not really shocking, and I'll give you
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: one more here. We seem to be kind of all
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: over the Saints. So here's some interesting notes to kind
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: of look into. So Carr has struggled in his career
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: facing softer defenses, which kind of makes sense more points
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: against defenses allowing twenty one points per game or more.
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: He's actually thirty seven percent in almost one hundred games,
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: dead last of every quarterback in our database last twenty years. Luckily,
• 57:50
  Speaker 5: the Chiefs defense is actually isn't soft, right. They allow
• 57:53
  Speaker 5: eighteen points per game this year versus teams allowing fewer
• 57:56
  Speaker 5: than twenty one points per game. He is thirty five
• 57:59
  Speaker 5: and twenty one against the spread. Fifth best here are
• 58:02
  Speaker 5: the quarterbacks. He's behind Brady Breeze, Rogers and Peyton Manning.
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: So not a terrible list. And this, to me was
• 58:10
  Speaker 5: just unbelievable. So one final nugget on Casey. They've won
• 58:14
  Speaker 5: all four games this year by seven points or less.
• 58:17
  Speaker 5: Teams who have won by a touchdown or lesson four
• 58:19
  Speaker 5: straight just sixteen and twenty seven ats in their next
• 58:22
  Speaker 5: game thirty seven percent, and that drops another five percent
• 58:25
  Speaker 5: lower one favored by a field goal or Moore. So
• 58:28
  Speaker 5: it's the spot. It's scary taking them out of the
• 58:30
  Speaker 5: dome and bring them on the wet grass, as Simon
• 58:32
  Speaker 5: alluded to, which is a great note.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: But got to take the points. You know what, I've
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: never felt better, Simon. Thank you, Evan, you did a
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: great job. I think giving us a little bit of
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: a handrail on the roller coaster there to help so
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: we can try to make some better decisions, Simon, is
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: what I would say right now. Steelers yep. Saints got
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: gotta gotta since love it, Houston yep. And then I
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: think it comes down to Arizona, the Rams or the Panthers.
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: I know I feel strong about it.
• 59:12
  Speaker 4: I put Rams above Houston.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: Okay, all right, So so then it comes down to Houston, Arizona.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: Houston Arizona.
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: If we want to make for really good content, yeah,
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: we go with Arizona.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: I agree because I just I'm not there and you're
• 59:32
  Speaker 2: you're all in, which I totally get.
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: All right, well, I'm excited to put those in after
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: the show.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: Is that? So?
• 59:38
  Speaker 4: Is that where you're gonna do.
• 59:39
  Speaker 2: You're gonna go with Arizona over Houston.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna go. Uh yeah, I'm gonna go
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Sincy Arizona rams Pittsburgh, New Orleans?
• 59:51
  Speaker 3: Right?
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: Love?
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: It is that?
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Is that?
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Five? Sincey Arizona rams Pittsburgh, Ne Orleans. Yep, Yep, there
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: we go, brother, Another exciting week in the Favorites Podcast.
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  Speaker 1: next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube
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