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Is Public Transit Back to Pre-pandemic Normal? That depends on where you look. · Thinking Transportation: Engaging Conversations about Transportation Innovations

0:16
Bernie Fette: Hey, everyone. Welcome to Thinking Transportation -- conversations about how we get ourselves and the stuff we need from one place to another. I'm Bernie Fette with the Texas A&M Transportation Institute. Public transit ridership still hasn't fully returned to the levels that we had before the COVID-19 pandemic. Across the U.S., the number of people riding buses and trains is only about 75 percent of what we experienced in 2019, though there are certain areas -- namely rural and smaller urban regions -- where the use of public transportation is increasing a bit faster. It's in the larger urban areas where recovery has been somewhat slower. To help us understand those trends and others, we welcome Michael Walk to this conversation. Michael is a research scientist at TTI and manager of the Transit Mobility Program. Michael, thanks very much for joining us today.
1:20
Michael Walk: Thank you for having me.
1:21
Bernie Fette: Looking back a few years, we saw a lot of change in the transit world as a result of the pandemic. Are any of those changes still in place or have we returned to what you might consider to be normal , whatever normal is?
1:37
Michael Walk: Well, I think it depends on what we're looking at in terms of the changes. There were several impacts of the pandemic, not least of which was impacts on ridership. That is less people using public transportation. You know , immediately when the pandemic hit and things were shutting down. Mm-Hmm. . So we have that impact. The ridership impact there were impacts to transit services, you know, the actual amount of services provided by transit agencies. You know, so that's the change caused by the pandemic as well as new processes and procedures that actually were put in place as a result of the pandemic. For instance, more often cleaning buses or sanitizing surfaces or operators wearing masks and things like that. Mm-Hmm . Right . So there were a lot of , there were a lot of things that happened . Yeah. Generally speaking, if you start with a ridership question, right? How close are we to getting back to what you might call pre pandemic or normal ridership?
2:42
Bernie Fette: Right.
2:42
Michael Walk: Really across the U. S., we're around 75 percent or so, you know, give or take a few percentage points of normal ridership. So where we are right now, the number of people riding buses and trains right now in the U. S. is about 75 percent of the number of people riding buses and trains before the pandemic, you know, hit. And things sort of shut down, but it's not the same in every region or agency, you know, across the U. S. there's still a lot of variety there.
3:10
Bernie Fette: So if I were to ask you whether the use of public transportation in America, generally speaking, whether it's increasing or decreasing compared to several years ago, pre-pandemic, it sounds like the answer might be, well, it depends on where you live.
3:28
Michael Walk: Yeah. In a sense, right . On the aggregate, ridership is increasing it , it has been increasing since , uh, late, you know, 2020. And it's even in the state of Texas here, you know, ridership is back to somewhere between 80 and 90 percent what it was pre-pandemic, depending on the type of system. Mm-Hmm. For instance, ridership really has returned a lot more in the rural areas and the smaller urban systems. Hmm . Okay . Right . So in those types of areas, you see ridership is actually getting back to that 80, 90 percent, even a hundred percent of what it was before the pandemic.
4:06
Bernie Fette: And why would it be increasing at a quicker pace in those areas as opposed to the more densely populated areas?
4:14
Michael Walk: Yeah, it's, it's a very good question and I, I think we can conjecture a little bit, you know, based on what we see and how those areas are different. One possible reason is that the larger metro areas often have more riders that are your white collar commute to work, you know, go in the morning, come back in the evening, kind of that typical white collar worker kind of a job. Many of the large metro systems have special services specifically just for that kind of rider. Right . Uhhuh , . And you know, when the pandemic hit, a lot of those riders went away because remote work and where I already had a car available at home anyway and sort of transit was just more convenient for me. But now I go back to driving because of the pandemic and for those particular workers, you know, again, which are more common in your large metro areas. Mm-Hmm. , I think it's gonna be really hard to get them back on transit. And I think that's what we're seeing in the large metro areas. But like in the rural areas, in the smaller cities, ridership, even before the pandemic was less of that kind of a worker, less of the white collar choice rider with a car. Right . The people that were riding transit before the pandemic often were ones that needed it regardless. Right. Right. It doesn't matter what's happening.
5:33
Bernie Fette: People for whom that was the only option.
5:34
Michael Walk: Sure. And so those riders might have reduced, you know, their use of transit immediately, you know, when the pandemic went into effect, but they bounced back a lot quicker because, you know, I still have to get to my job. Right . Or I still have to get to my medical appointment. There's no other option available for me. And so I think we see that manifesting itself in these trends.
5:56
Bernie Fette: You wrote a few years ago about the catch-22 of public transit in a pandemic. It's difficult for transit riders to distance themselves on a bus or train, but we needed public transit to get those workers to their workplaces so that our society could keep running. Mm-Hmm.
6:15
Bernie Fette: In the event of another public health emergency, would we be any better able to manage that dilemma than we were four years ago?
6:26
Michael Walk: Yeah. I would say absolutely.
6:29
Bernie Fette: You sound confident.
6:30
Michael Walk: Yeah. , well , maybe too confident. Right . Don't ever be too confident. But it , you know, there's nothing like an emergency that spurs innovation and creative thinking and preparation, you know? And I think the transit industry, by and large , uh, simply is in a better position to today to handle a public health emergency like that than it was at the onset of the pandemic. Nobody was imagining at the beginning when covid, you know, was really catching. We weren't thinking about masks. We weren't thinking about, you know, active sanitization of vehicles or the air inside. They weren't really hot topics in the industry. And then with the pandemic, that changed very quickly. And now industry itself has guidebooks and playbooks to go off of. We learned from the things that we did to mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. Transit agencies have now stocks. Little things like having a stock of PPE, right. Personal protective equipment on hand right now as a common practice and making that available to your operators of your vehicles and the passengers. We now have procedures and processes in place to make sure that we're ready to do that. And not only that, but advancements in technology like an air purification. So that sort of a new innovation on board transit vehicles, although it's been around for a while , but it became much more important here with the pandemic. Contactless spare payment. It's, there's a lot that has changed and it really shifted the industry to be better prepared if in the event something like this happens again.
8:10
Bernie Fette: There are so many different things we could talk about in the broad arena of public transportation, but I know that bus rapid transit is one of the things that you and your colleagues have been working with a lot in recent years. Right.
8:23
Michael Walk: Yeah. I've been doing some research in it. Yeah.
8:25
Bernie Fette: Okay. So please tell us what is bus rapid transit and maybe specifically in part, how does it differ from routine bus service and how might it shape the picture of public transportation going forward?
8:40
Michael Walk: Yeah. Bus rapid transit or BRT for short, is that type of bus service that aims to be higher speed, more reliable and of higher quality than what you might think of traditional, you know, local bus service, the bus stopping at every other block or something like that. Sometimes people call bus rapid transit. Rubber tire , light rail. That's one sort of way of thinking of it. If you can think about a , a light rail system. But now you have buses as their vehicles instead of rail cars and the buses travel on a lane over the roadway instead of tracks. And the goal with BRT is to try to avoid or at least mitigate many of the sources of delay that often impact traditional bus service. Mm-Hmm. . And the main two sources of delay, right ? When you think about any sort of driving right on the road is traffic , right? So encountering other vehicles and things like that that causes delay. And of course when you're a transit vehicle, then there's also sources of delay caused by the boarding process, passengers getting on board the bus. So bus rapid transit aims to try to address those challenges by investing in infrastructure or technology that reduces or mitigates those challenges. For instance, operating at a dedicated lane. Mm-hmm . , right ? So that the bus has its own lane and doesn't have to wrestle with the rest of the vehicles on the roadway. Right. It seems like traffic signal priority. That BRT , that was my
10:25
Bernie Fette: That was my next question. Yeah. Yeah . My next question was, well the buses, even if they have their dedicated lane, they've still got traffic lights like the rest of us, right?
10:32
Michael Walk: Yeah. Very true. Traffic signal priority is one of those technologies often implemented with a BRT system. Okay? So either help the bus get through the signal faster or even before the other traffic. There's lots of different ways to do traffic signal priority, but there's also ways to improve the boarding process or speed it up. For instance, offboard fare payment, that's often a feature of BRT routes so that passengers are buying their fares at a station and they don't have to queue up and pay when you get on the bus, right? Right . So everybody already bought their fare , the bus arrives, the door opens, boop, everybody gets on. And so that speeds that process up. And even things like multi-door boarding, opening all the doors on the bus and allowing everybody to get on rather than everybody having to go through one door. Right? There's other types of investments, but those are some of the key features of A BRT system to try to keep it fast. And
11:28
Bernie Fette: So, BRT systems , so BRT systems are intended to overcome some of those challenges, like you mentioned, just the, the other traffic, the competing traffic, and also the boarding times that cause delays.
11:41
Michael Walk: Right.
11:42
Bernie Fette: Is the theory that in addition to increasing operational efficiency, that in doing that you might be able to build ridership? Is that one of the goals of what you're talking about?
11:53
Michael Walk: Yeah, certainly. You know, regions implement BRT systems for lots of different reasons. One of which is I wanna try to induce ridership induce demand in this corridor and something as attractive as a rapid transit system can do that. Other goals might include reducing congestion in a given corridor. Mm-Hmm. , you know, where you have a lot of bus traffic and vehicular traffic and you wanna try to keep the bus out of that traffic. Mm-Hmm . or get more people to ride the BRT system, right? To, to help reduce the congestion in the corridor, get more people through the corridor. This isn't my area of expertise, but you know, there's also the economic development argument. You know, when you invest in transit infrastructure, particularly fixed guideway infrastructure where there's dedicated lanes and stations, you know , that aren't gonna just disappear overnight. Right ? Uh , that can also influence investment in the corridor, in businesses and housing, et cetera. Seeing that as a ripe opportunity for investment, right? Because you're gonna be attracting people to that area so they can get around their city faster.
13:03
Bernie Fette: Another thing that might make public transportation of the future look a lot different that like cars and semi trucks , we might have self-driving buses.
13:15
Michael Walk: Mm-Hmm.
13:15
Bernie Fette: . Um, I'm wondering if you could talk a little about the implications for a development like that. Not only implications for passengers, but for the transit driver workforce.
13:29
Michael Walk: Yeah, certainly there's still a lot of interest in automating transit vehicles and like everything we've talked about so far, it's complex. The implications are complex. But to answer your question, you know, when we're thinking about automating buses and other rubber tire transit vehicles, if you think of from the passenger experience, I mean I , I think the hope in the industry is for improved safety and even improved quality of service. It's a very tricky topic. However, because you know, just making a vehicle automated doesn't necessarily guarantee that the service is gonna be better. Right? From the outset. Maybe the vehicle , um, might be safer. And I think there's still a lot of uncertainty about that. But in the event that you have transit service that is fully automated and doesn't require an operator onboard the vehicle, you could have higher levels of service being provided at a equal or lower price point. The reason for that is that the bulk of transit cost comes from labor. Operator labor can account for 60, 70 percent of a transit agency's annual operating costs . Mm-Hmm . . And so it's a big cost driver, right? So on the one side, if you think of sort of the, wow, wouldn't it be great, you know, to have these automated vehicles? 'cause right now I can only afford to run a bus every half an hour, but I might be able to afford to run a bus every 15 minutes or every 10 minutes if I don't have to have a driver on board every vehicle. Right?
15:05
Bernie Fette: Right.
15:06
Michael Walk: I don't know how realistic that is. And you know, certainly the industry's in a space right now where they're trying to figure that out. And in my experience, talking with transit operators, you know , transit agencies, the providers of public transit service, and even what we know about the bus operator job, the likelihood that you're gonna have a large number of transit services that do not require a professional driver , uh, I think it's relatively low simply because the job that a bus operator does, we think about it, right? It's not just driving the bus. You know, a bus operator operates the bus, collects fares, interacts with passengers, answers questions, handles disputes, you know, responds to medical emergencies, right? The bus operator does so many other things that, you know, automating a vehicle in of itself can help relieve some of that duty, right. Of navigating the vehicle through traffic. But there's still other components of the job that just at this point don't seem feasible to automate and still require a person on board the transit vehicle to provide that professional customer experience and interaction with the rider.
16:19
Bernie Fette: The passenger experience might improve, but in a few examples you just gave there about that personal interaction, in some cases an emergency interaction Mm-Hmm. between a driver and passengers would suddenly not be there. It would disappear. Right?
16:34
Michael Walk: Right. Which is why at least, again, this is my opinion, based on interactions with the industry, I don't think it's likely that there'll be a mass replacement of current transit services with fully automated services that don't need bus operators. Maybe new services, new service expansions, innovative markets, you know , trying to serve a market we can't serve today, you know, in a very limited way with a fully automated vehicle. I, I think that's an option. We see opportunities for automating bus movements in yards. So where the buses are parked and fueled and cleaned when they come back from their day's work, there's currently several demonstration projects looking at how to automate those movements inside a bus yard so that they can go through the wash and then get charged up if it's an electric bus fueled up and then go park itself. Those kinds of things.
17:26
Bernie Fette: Yeah. And those are automated activities that do not involve the presence of passengers at all.
17:32
Michael Walk: Correct. Yeah. So it's 100 percent removed from the passenger experience. This , these are things where really the operator is only driving the bus. Yeah. And so in that case , uh, then the vehicle could be automated and accomplish the same task.
17:47
Bernie Fette: Okay. So we've talked just a little bit there about not only the passenger experience, but the operator experience. Mm-Hmm. . I wanted to talk about something else from the operator's perspective that I know that you're familiar with. I've read a bit recently about how violence against transit drivers has been on the increase. One reference that I saw said that serious assaults, those that caused death or serious injury have tripled over the past 15 years. It's a , according to a study from the Urban Institute, and there were many more assaults that didn't involve serious injury. That's something that I certainly was not aware of. Mm-Hmm. , it made me think of some of the other reading I've done and that maybe you've also seen about the sharp increase in violence that has been directed at flight attendants in recent years. Mm-Hmm. . And here again, I might be fishing for your opinion. I just wonder what do you think that those concurrent trends mean in the broader context of transportation?
18:59
Michael Walk: It is troubling, isn't it? And the statistics you cited are in line with, you know, other research that's being done. And even my own discussions with bus operators across different studies that we do for transit agencies. Right. You know, and it's interesting because we recently did a study for transit agency to help them figure out why are bus operators leaving as fast as they are. Right. They have a problem retaining the bus operators. And you know, the, based on the survey and focus groups discussions with operators, we interviewed a bunch of operators. One-on-one, you know, the number-one concern, not salary, not benefits, not transit schedules ... passenger behavior was the number-one concern out of all those things. So that's just additional evidence, right? Of what operators are experiencing. And unfortunately this is causing challenges in the transportation industry by and large, particularly in public transit. What I'm most familiar with, you know, it's creating challenges, keeping and hiring operators was always a difficult job as it was. And to then have the additional challenge caused by unruly passenger behavior or even the chance of violence against, you know, operators does not help improve the attractiveness of the job. And so there's a lot of room for improvement there. And it's really a hot topic right now in the transit industry trying to find solutions to protect operators deal with or curb and really passenger behavior. And how do you do that? Is it training? Is it laws, is it policies, is it protective barriers? What are the solutions? And I think we're still trying to figure that out all while , you know, operators are still driving the bus day in, day out and kind of dealing with these challenges. I don't know what it says about society in general, .
20:55
Bernie Fette: Hmm . I'm wondering what you think about what the future holds for the transit industry. Electrification, other alternative fuels as a couple of examples. You don't have to talk about those. I'm just wondering what are the big items that you think will help to define the future for the transit industry?
21:14
Michael Walk: Hmm . Yeah. So I get a chance to just sort of imagine, huh?
21:18
Bernie Fette: Yes, you do . It's encouraged. ,
21:20
Michael Walk: I mean, I , I think I'll hit on the first point you mentioned, which is electrification and alternative fuels. We can't ignore it . That's a really big issue for the transit industry and it's part of the future. There's a lot of federal investment right now in low- and no-emission buses. There's a whole federal transit program, you know, grant program to help fund low- and no-emissions buses, which includes battery, electric buses, hydrogen buses, other alternative fuels that have low and no emissions like CNG or propane and others. Mm-Hmm . . And it's definitely where the industry is heading and leading towards. But when it comes to electric buses, whether it's battery electric or hydrogen electric, there's still a lot of lessons to be learned. And there's a lot of challenges in the marketplace, both on the production side, you know, having manufacturers unable to meet the demand , uh, for electric buses. Some going out of business where you have transit agencies trying to figure out how to get adequate range out of the buses if they're battery electric in particular. Right. Because a typical bus might go 200, 300 miles in a day, particularly in a large city system. Yeah.
22:36
Bernie Fette: This question reaches into other industries as well, the power generation and Mm-Hmm . questions about power supply, questions about our power grid.
22:46
Michael Walk: Absolutely. I mean, and it's that way when you think about any sort of major technological innovation that fundamentally changes the distribution of energy. Right? I wasn't there, but I'm sure when the industry converted from horse-drawn or cable-drawn cars to diesel engines and gasoline engines, internal combustion engines, we were probably wringing our hands in the same way. , right? You know, back then and had to solve for a lot of things at the same time in order to make it work. Right. And so, yeah, this certainly is a big challenge for the industry, but, but definitely where it seems like things are heading, you know, we all recognize that emissions and public health and there's a lot of other benefits associated with getting away from, you know, conventionally powered engines and buses and , and moving towards hopefully something that's in the end better for the environment and better for the communities in which the service operates . I think that's one big issue . Another sort of future, I guess, if you would for the transit industry is continued improvement in the on-demand type of service. In other words, I hate making this analogy, but like the Uber of transit, right. , I
24:00
Bernie Fette: I think I saw that coming. Yeah. Okay.
24:01
Michael Walk: Yeah. Sort of micro-transit is a word we would use for it. Mm-Hmm . . But I like just using the word on-demand transit. So this is transit service, it's still public transit, but it has the capability to come when you need it to the location that you need it. It's doesn't solve all of the public transit challenges and it can't be implemented everywhere. It does not replace high capacity buses or even traditional fixed route transit in many cases. It's just not efficient to go where people want you to pick them up and drop them off where they want to be dropped off. But on-demand transit, being able to, on the same day or even an hour or half an hour or 20 minutes before you wanna go be able to request a transit vehicle come to a reasonable walking distance of you to get you to someplace that's a reasonable walking distance for your destination is an area that is really helping the transit industry solve some of those first and last mile challenges. And to be able to really extend their transit networks, you know, beyond sort of where the fixed routes are, being able to go into other communities and connect them to the fixed route network that they already operate. And this on-demand model helps to meet the needs of people with disabilities and others that traditionally would have to call a day in advance or two days in advance, you know, in order to be able to get their trip. So the innovation that's happening in this area of on-demand transit is really exciting and we're doing research in that area right now and trying to support agencies and others be able to get ready for that and look at the best options for that kind of service.
25:41
Bernie Fette: Yeah. You mentioned that you're doing some research in that area now. I wonder if you could talk for just a minute about what you see as near-term research priorities for the transit industry. Lemme put it this way. What if a research sponsor handed you a check for a million dollars to study whatever you wanted to study? You didn't have to be concerned with what the research sponsor's priorities were. You get to decide, you get to speculate again.
26:11
Michael Walk: Okay . I mean, honestly, it'd be tough. I have sort of two top priorities. The first is one we already talked about today, which is the bus operator job in and of itself. You know, research to help support and improve the work life balance. And the quality of the bus operator job in and of itself has an option for something to do as a job, as a career. I think there's a lot of opportunity there. And in a way, I think the industry has kind of ignored innovation in improving the job of a bus operator for a while. And there's a lot that we can be doing, I think, to figure out how to make the job better, how to make it more attractive, how to improve the health and safety of bus operators. And that would be something that, it would be on my million dollar checklist. I think the last would be ways to improve the accessibility of transit services. And by accessibility, I mean, so to people with disabilities. Mm-Hmm . , particularly people who are blind or low vision or have mobility impairment of some kind. And although the industry's made a lot of strides over the years, you know, since the , uh, Americans With Disabilities Act, there's still room for improvement in not only making the services themselves accessible to people with disabilities. You know, improving like bus stop accessibility, vehicle accessibility, the responsiveness of transit services to people with disabilities. That's one area. But then another is even just providing information to people with disabilities. Like how do you get to the bus stop on an accessible pathway, providing information to people who are blind or low vision on where bus stops are, or when the next bus is coming, how do you buy if there's a lot of things that still need to be improved for people with disabilities. And so I think if given the million dollar check, those are probably the two things that I'd have to decide between focusing on those two topics.
28:21
Bernie Fette: So why is public transportation important to those of us who don't use it?
28:27
Michael Walk: A very good question. When you think about public transportation, I , this isn't my quote, but even if you don't use public transit, somebody you know likely does, or one day you might have to, and particularly when we talk about the significant increase in population, you know, that are seniors, that's gonna be an ongoing challenge. And public transportation often becomes one of the key mobility options for people who are aging, trying to age in place, still be able to interact with their community, but can't drive anymore. And the other reality is that particularly as we talk about moving around urban areas, there's really no more space efficient way to move people around a limited space than public transportation. Putting those people in a single vehicle and right, and moving them together is the most space efficient way to move people through a corridor. And so public transportation has value in many different applications, not only in rural areas, not only in people with disabilities, people who cannot drive, but also dealing with urban congestion, enhancing urban mobility.
29:41
Bernie Fette: Just make the rest of the system operate better.
29:43
Michael Walk: Yeah, absolutely.
29:45
Bernie Fette: Last question, what is it that motivates you to show up for work every day ?
29:51
Michael Walk: Being here at TTI is one of those opportunities that I never really dreamed that I would have. I hadn't thought about it. I used to work for a transit agency and I really enjoyed doing that work. But what I do day in day out here, I really believe in the mission and being able to be a part of research that actually enhances the quality of life of people, whether it's the employees of a transit agency or it's people in the community, that to me, I can't ask for anything better to be able to do the work we do, results in improved quality of life and enhanced mobility for those that rely on public transportation. And nothing more encouraging to me and really gives a lot of purpose to my daily work.
30:52
Bernie Fette: Michael Walk , research scientist and program manager at TTI and expert in all things public transportation. This has been really enlightening, Michael. Thanks very much for sharing your insights and your perspective.
31:06
Michael Walk: It was a lot of fun. Thanks for having me here.
31:10
Bernie Fette: By many estimates, the transit industry is in a far better position today to handle a public health crisis than it was at the onset of COVID-19. Even as it faces persistent financial pressures and workforce challenges, public transportation remains an essential piece of how society moves about every day. And that's true even for those of us who don't use it on a regular basis. Thanks for listening. Please take just a minute to give us a review, subscribe and share this episode. And please join us next time for another conversation about getting ourselves and the stuff we need from point A to point B. Thinking Transportation is a production of the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, a member of the Texas A&M University System. The show is edited and produced by Chris Pourteau. I'm your writer and host , Bernie Fette. Thanks again for joining us. We'll see you next time.