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Inflation Falls?📉Crypto Crash Technical Analysis with Tim Warren · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Inflation numbers are coming in quite a bit different. How
0:03
Speaker 1: is this going to affect the market? Has the bottom
0:06
Speaker 1: actually occurred today, we'll break it down. I want to
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0:51
Speaker 2: Let's go over to our trader today.
0:53
Speaker 1: And then of course is mister Tim Warren coming in
0:56
Speaker 1: from Tim Warren Trades over on YouTube. If you guys
0:59
Speaker 1: haven't visited channel jump right there. You can go see
1:02
Speaker 1: Tim on YouTube and he's got a ten thousand dollars
1:06
Speaker 1: crypto portfolio in there, featured from four months ago. I'm
1:10
Speaker 1: going to ask you a question about that, Tim today,
1:13
Speaker 1: would you still use the same portfolio?
1:17
Speaker 3: Yeah? Outdated video there, you know, I'll tell you right
1:20
Speaker 3: now every coin in that video. I still like, does
1:24
Speaker 3: that mean that you're going to turn that ten thousand dollars?
1:27
Speaker 3: Is that ten thousand dollars still worth ten thousand dollars? No,
1:29
Speaker 3: it is not.
1:29
Speaker 2: No, it is not.
1:30
Speaker 3: Is it still a good long term hold those picks?
1:33
Speaker 3: I would think so, but clearly things have changed since
1:35
Speaker 3: that video was made. I like it.
1:37
Speaker 1: All right, Well, let's get into the news here because
1:40
Speaker 1: this is the one that is most perplexing to me,
1:44
Speaker 1: and I even think.
1:46
Speaker 2: Kobec hit it right here. Absolutely insane.
1:49
Speaker 1: Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the
1:52
Speaker 1: largest monthly declines since twenty twenty three. We saw a
1:55
Speaker 1: ten basis point increase inflation, which was what it was expected.
1:58
Speaker 1: It actually fell by forty basis points. This puts core
2:03
Speaker 1: CPI in the US at its lowest level since March
2:05
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty one. We know what that was, and
2:09
Speaker 1: that was really an era in which we don't want
2:12
Speaker 1: to revisit. So I don't know if First of all,
2:15
Speaker 1: I never trust the inflation data anyway, so I'm one
2:18
Speaker 1: of those that always doubts the data coming in. But
2:21
Speaker 1: the narrative that it puts out into the market is
2:24
Speaker 1: completely different than what we've been seeing overall. Do you
2:27
Speaker 1: think this signals anything at all, tim going forward, if
2:31
Speaker 1: you were trading in the market today.
2:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, clearly it's bullish. It's a depiction, you know,
2:37
Speaker 3: following up on news we got the other day, unemployment
2:40
Speaker 3: hit the highest level we've seen in how long now.
2:42
Speaker 3: Inflation is the lowest we've seen since that. What you
2:45
Speaker 3: just said there March of twenty twenty one, what do
2:48
Speaker 3: you do with that information? You say, we have an
2:50
Speaker 3: unemployment issue, not an inflation issue. What is that equal
2:53
Speaker 3: more more quantitative easing in the form of more rate cuts.
2:58
Speaker 3: I think what we're watching right now is the last
3:00
Speaker 3: FED meeting, the dot plot that was revealed projecting what
3:05
Speaker 3: the current FED members believe twenty twenty six would look like.
3:08
Speaker 3: Their average is predicting that or they're expecting to only
3:11
Speaker 3: have to cut rates one more time in twenty May six.
3:14
Speaker 3: I believe I saw that Futures is still predicting that
3:17
Speaker 3: they'll cut twice either way, I think a lot of
3:19
Speaker 3: Americans think that they should cut even more than that.
3:22
Speaker 3: And in an ecosystem where inflation continues to drop and
3:26
Speaker 3: unemployment continues to go to the upside, that is a
3:29
Speaker 3: recipe for more and more rate cuts, more liquidity or
3:32
Speaker 3: money printing, and what happens when that happens, risk on
3:35
Speaker 3: assets like cryptocurrency go to the upside. So we still
3:39
Speaker 3: see this whole recipe that we've been you know, we've
3:41
Speaker 3: been talking about for a long time. The signs of
3:43
Speaker 3: a bullsh twenty oy six are still there. And yet
3:47
Speaker 3: I'm sure we're gona discussed the Today's show. Crypto prices
3:50
Speaker 3: keep dropping? Why is that? I'll answer to the best
3:54
Speaker 3: I can here in a second.
3:54
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, two things to kind of consider here,
3:57
Speaker 1: because I think a lot of people were really disarmed
3:59
Speaker 1: by what that report did, and Trueflation put out a
4:04
Speaker 1: note on this. Their item number one was the one
4:06
Speaker 1: I wanted to pay attention to. As per the BLS
4:09
Speaker 1: they started to collect November data on the fourteenth of
4:11
Speaker 1: November and attempted to collect data for the entire month,
4:14
Speaker 1: which means some data is missing, so we're going to
4:17
Speaker 1: get a revision. But the fact that they were able
4:20
Speaker 1: to put out this is I think the bigger question now.
4:24
Speaker 2: Tariffs are still a big issue. Tim.
4:26
Speaker 1: I want to play a clip for you and then
4:27
Speaker 1: get your opinion.
4:28
Speaker 2: Take a look.
4:30
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's frustrating because they haven't even posted the information
4:33
Speaker 4: that I would need to really parcel of this, given
4:38
Speaker 4: the confusing way they've displayed the information. But the important
4:42
Speaker 4: number is the gear over year change in the prices
4:46
Speaker 4: of core goods, and that was one point four percent.
4:49
Speaker 4: And that may not sound like a lot, but this
4:51
Speaker 4: is a category that in normal times has negative inflation
4:55
Speaker 4: all the time, and this is where we're seeing tariffs.
5:00
Speaker 4: I don't think we've seen the last of the tariff
5:02
Speaker 4: effect by any stretch. I think we're only seeing a
5:05
Speaker 4: modest part of it so far, for a whole bunch
5:09
Speaker 4: of reasons, one of which is that we know firms
5:14
Speaker 4: hoarded inventory ahead of the tariffs and are probably still
5:17
Speaker 4: working through that. And I am very very puzzled by
5:21
Speaker 4: market expectations markets right now are expecting the next FED
5:26
Speaker 4: chair put in place by President Trump to cut by
5:30
Speaker 4: a sum total of forty basis points. My guess is
5:34
Speaker 4: if that came true, President Trump would be incredibly disappointed
5:39
Speaker 4: in his FED chair pick. So I think we're in
5:42
Speaker 4: for lower interest rates, higher inflation.
5:46
Speaker 1: All right, lower interest rates, higher inflation. She was, of
5:49
Speaker 1: course hitting on core, which is an issue. She is
5:52
Speaker 1: exactly right. Normally that does go negative, but a lot
5:57
Speaker 1: of this may be coming in from energy. Energy is
5:59
Speaker 1: another big factor in inflation.
6:01
Speaker 2: This, of course just the.
6:02
Speaker 1: US retail gas prices which have been plumbing. What's price
6:05
Speaker 1: of gas in your neck of the woods.
6:08
Speaker 3: They just bought some the other day for two fifty
6:11
Speaker 3: five or something.
6:13
Speaker 1: This is crazy to see this December fifteenth. This is
6:16
Speaker 1: the national average at three dollars right now. So maybe
6:20
Speaker 1: that is part of this number that is coming in.
6:22
Speaker 1: I don't know if this is a precursor into it,
6:25
Speaker 1: but it definitely puts a perplexing consideration of where this
6:29
Speaker 1: market is going. Crypto mad made this year feel worse
6:34
Speaker 1: than I think that. You know what we've seen in
6:36
Speaker 1: some of the biggest issues out there.
6:38
Speaker 2: COVID, FDx, LUNA.
6:40
Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at where bitcoin is on
6:42
Speaker 1: the year, it is a measly measley performance compared to
6:47
Speaker 1: every almost everything else, SMP gold, you name it. When
6:50
Speaker 1: you look at the bitcoin chart right now, Tim, tell
6:54
Speaker 1: me something good. Is there anything in there that you
6:58
Speaker 1: can say, here is a charge that's gonna show me something?
7:02
Speaker 3: You know. I love how you even kind of reped
7:05
Speaker 3: it off there. Let's look at something that's technically negative,
7:09
Speaker 3: but when you break it down should be longer term positive.
7:13
Speaker 3: So I'll go to my screen here. Let me zoom
7:15
Speaker 3: out a little bit, or zoom out and show you
7:17
Speaker 3: the broader time frame. This is a twelve month chart.
7:20
Speaker 3: That's why I'm zooming out so far, because each one
7:22
Speaker 3: of these candles right now I'm showing you, guys, is
7:24
Speaker 3: twelve months of price action. And if you're a four
7:27
Speaker 3: your cycle person, I understand a lot of people still
7:30
Speaker 3: heavily convicted about four your cycles. This is supposed to
7:33
Speaker 3: be majorly bullish, and on my chart, I like to
7:37
Speaker 3: mark my candles is white, bullish, blue bearish. This should
7:41
Speaker 3: be a very decent sized white candle in twenty twenty five.
7:44
Speaker 3: This is twenty twenty one, and to be fair, we
7:46
Speaker 3: had a nice long wit to the upside, but still
7:48
Speaker 3: the candleby is very very bullish. If you go back further, Actually,
7:51
Speaker 3: let me go to a different chart that gives me
7:52
Speaker 3: longer time periods. Here, this is twenty seventeen, right at
7:56
Speaker 3: the top of that four year cycle, and you go
7:58
Speaker 3: back before that, this is twenty thirteen. So if you're
8:00
Speaker 3: a four year cyclist, why is this candle blue? This
8:05
Speaker 3: is one of my biggest reasons, Paul, for continuing to
8:07
Speaker 3: believe despite the pullback, along with the right time frame
8:11
Speaker 3: of October being the top, this was a very disappointing year,
8:15
Speaker 3: not just for Bitcoin. I mean ethereum's in the blue.
8:18
Speaker 3: Don't even be started on what alt coins are gonna
8:20
Speaker 3: look like. Chain Link and uniswap and u ando didn't
8:24
Speaker 3: even have a four years let's say Cardono over here,
8:26
Speaker 3: nasty years that according to the four year cycle, we're
8:30
Speaker 3: supposed to be very very bullish. So on some timeframe,
8:35
Speaker 3: on some way of thinking, that actually is a sign
8:38
Speaker 3: that the four year cycle is dead. On how negative
8:41
Speaker 3: twenty ninety five was. And I've said this a lot, Paul,
8:43
Speaker 3: I think I've said on your channel before even the
8:46
Speaker 3: four year cycle theory whether you believe in it because
8:49
Speaker 3: of its relatability to the having cycle or not, you
8:53
Speaker 3: have to at least admit, well, how coincidental was it
8:56
Speaker 3: that in the years twenty twenty one, twenty seven, twenty thirteen,
9:02
Speaker 3: these were years of economic boom, years of quantitative easing,
9:06
Speaker 3: years of rates being cut by the Fed, and the
9:09
Speaker 3: following years twenty fourteen, twenty eighteen twenty twenty two were
9:13
Speaker 3: years of quantitative tightening and rate hikes. Well, we just
9:16
Speaker 3: went through entire twenty rainey five year of quantitative tightening,
9:20
Speaker 3: increased rates, they weren't cutting the rates, and now all
9:22
Speaker 3: signs of we're cutting rates going at the end of
9:24
Speaker 3: the year, we've ended quantitative tightening. We're probably going to
9:27
Speaker 3: get into official quantitative easing in twenty way six. Now
9:30
Speaker 3: you're seeing a flip paru where twenty twenty six is
9:33
Speaker 3: going to have a lot more economic similarities to twenty
9:36
Speaker 3: twenty one. In twenty seventeen versus twenty five was really
9:40
Speaker 3: more like the bear market year of twenty two and
9:42
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen and twenty fourteen.
9:45
Speaker 1: Well, I think that there is when you look at
9:48
Speaker 1: crypto acts. People are very negative right now in general
9:52
Speaker 1: and rightly so. I mean they've lived through just like
9:55
Speaker 1: Ash Crypto just mentioned, a pretty crappy year for crypto
9:58
Speaker 1: in general. But I I think it is the expectation
10:01
Speaker 1: to your point that this was supposed to be that
10:04
Speaker 1: four year cycle year that really kind of took crypto
10:07
Speaker 1: to the next level. I think, you know, the likes
10:09
Speaker 1: of Michael Saylor have talked about this, but at the
10:11
Speaker 1: same time, Data Dash has been on here many times.
10:14
Speaker 1: He talks about twenty twenty six being the year to watch,
10:17
Speaker 1: and it sounds to me like with this cycle pivoting out.
10:20
Speaker 1: And if you've listened to Raoul Powell, you know he
10:23
Speaker 1: Raul Powell, I should say, yeah, Raul when he was
10:27
Speaker 1: on our show, he kind of talked about this elongation
10:30
Speaker 1: that is happening in the business cycle of the markets,
10:34
Speaker 1: and that does line up very similarly. The question, of course,
10:37
Speaker 1: is still going to be how does inflation play into this.
10:40
Speaker 1: The other thing that will be a factor here going
10:42
Speaker 1: forward is these crypto bills, And I'm also starting to
10:45
Speaker 1: flip on this.
10:46
Speaker 2: As of this morning.
10:47
Speaker 1: What seems to be happening is that we're starting to
10:50
Speaker 1: see the crypto contingency playing a card with Tim Scott
10:56
Speaker 1: and a lot of our congress people there in DC
10:59
Speaker 1: to try to resurrect what is going to be the
11:02
Speaker 1: Clarity Act and try to save it in essence from
11:04
Speaker 1: the banks. I want to play a clip for you
11:07
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that.
11:08
Speaker 3: We're making progress, but we're not. It's clear to me
11:13
Speaker 3: anyway that we're not there yet.
11:17
Speaker 5: That's that Senator John Kennedy, he's a member of the
11:20
Speaker 5: Banking Committee that initially hoped to mark up the bill
11:23
Speaker 5: this month, but that has now been pushed back yet again.
11:26
Speaker 5: Issues remained an A tentative vote on the bill that
11:29
Speaker 5: lawmakers hope to take this month could be going now
11:32
Speaker 5: until January. Remaining issues include whether top government officials like
11:37
Speaker 5: President Trump and his family should be able to profit
11:40
Speaker 5: from crypto ventures while they are in office. Another ongoing
11:44
Speaker 5: debate is to what degree decentralized finance should be regulated,
11:47
Speaker 5: and there's also a battle brewing between banks and crypto
11:51
Speaker 5: over interest payments. Now stablecoin issuers they are banned from
11:55
Speaker 5: paying interest to customers, but they can pay rewards that
11:58
Speaker 5: look a lot like interest, which banks argue is too similar.
12:03
Speaker 1: All right, so we know all the you know the
12:05
Speaker 1: issues there, but it does pose as of this morning,
12:09
Speaker 1: and I talked I fortunately I get a chance to
12:11
Speaker 1: talk to a lot of the guys in d C.
12:12
Speaker 1: We'll be by the way, we'll be at the DC
12:14
Speaker 1: Blockchain Summit in January talking with a lot of these lawmakers.
12:17
Speaker 1: But point being is that it appears that we've got
12:22
Speaker 1: a little bit more looseness after ripple coinbase A sixteen
12:26
Speaker 1: z all basically converged on DC to try to line
12:29
Speaker 1: out some of these things. If we get a market
12:32
Speaker 1: structure in January, where would you put that in terms
12:37
Speaker 1: of the bullish scale on a one to ten for
12:39
Speaker 1: crypto in general.
12:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think that event would look kind of similarly.
12:44
Speaker 3: I think charts would look kind of similar to what
12:46
Speaker 3: we saw maybe with bitcoin ETFs. Everyone's going to remember
12:49
Speaker 3: right there at the end of twenty twenty three, early
12:51
Speaker 3: twenty eighty four, when that came out, we started a boom.
12:54
Speaker 3: I think you're going to look at that. I think
12:55
Speaker 3: you're going to look at times like when you know
12:57
Speaker 3: at the time, whether people agree with it now or not.
13:00
Speaker 3: You know, twenty one five was a bad year. Everyone
13:02
Speaker 3: thought twenty one five was gonna be great because Donald
13:04
Speaker 3: Trump was coming into office, and he was supposed to
13:06
Speaker 3: be the greatest crypto president ever. Didn't work out as
13:09
Speaker 3: some people thought. But if you guys remember when it
13:12
Speaker 3: was announced he was officially the next president the United States.
13:14
Speaker 3: In November, markets took off once again. So what I
13:17
Speaker 3: would say is I think another thing that we I
13:20
Speaker 3: think another thing would happen like that. I'll show you
13:23
Speaker 3: on the charts to kind of show people what price
13:25
Speaker 3: looked like leading into these events. I just mentioned, you know,
13:28
Speaker 3: you got to go all the way back here, Like
13:30
Speaker 3: I said, into late twenty twenty three, bitcoin had already bottomed,
13:33
Speaker 3: obviously in the bear market. Let me grab my tool here,
13:37
Speaker 3: this was the bottom right here. Clearly bitcoin had a
13:39
Speaker 3: nice surge as things started getting into the bull market.
13:42
Speaker 3: But we had this period of time of consolidation, not
13:45
Speaker 3: really a major pullback. I think bitcoin didn't even quite
13:47
Speaker 3: pull back thirty percent, but after a long period of
13:50
Speaker 3: time we're talking about between April all the way until
13:53
Speaker 3: October of twenty three, there's a long lull of boring
13:56
Speaker 3: nothingness happening in the world of bitcoin and crypto. And
13:59
Speaker 3: then guess what happens. The rumors and the reality of
14:02
Speaker 3: the ETF started to come out, and bitcoin and crypto
14:04
Speaker 3: started to take off, right, And while there was a
14:06
Speaker 3: little hiccup when the ETF went live, the boom continued
14:10
Speaker 3: all the way until March of twenty four. Well, all
14:12
Speaker 3: of a sudden, we hit a new all time high
14:13
Speaker 3: before the Havy event. It was crazy, Crypto's going berserk.
14:17
Speaker 3: And then we entered this very long consolidated period. Right,
14:21
Speaker 3: some people are going to say that was even a
14:22
Speaker 3: bullflag pattern, but a very long consolidated period. We're waiting. Hey,
14:26
Speaker 3: is the Japanese carry trade, by the way, we're talking
14:28
Speaker 3: about that again. He even tonight is a big deal
14:30
Speaker 3: Japanese carry trade. Kind of scared markets here a little bit.
14:32
Speaker 3: But like I said, we start to hear, all right,
14:34
Speaker 3: it looks like Donald Trump's gonna be president. Market starts
14:36
Speaker 3: to move back to the upside. It becomes official. Everything
14:39
Speaker 3: takes off. Donald Trump becomes president. We think it's supposed
14:43
Speaker 3: to be very good. We get this long consolidated nothing's happening,
14:47
Speaker 3: and then what starts going into play. They start to
14:50
Speaker 3: give the rumors and rumbling mills of quantitative easing of
14:55
Speaker 3: the Clarity Acts. Although I think I had a different
14:57
Speaker 3: name back then, Well, market starts went through, just went through. Yeah,
15:01
Speaker 3: jeh g yeah, I was a genius act to that point.
15:03
Speaker 3: But now we've gone through another pullback, consolidation, boring period.
15:07
Speaker 3: Everyone thinks, I mean, by the way, bullmarket dead. If
15:11
Speaker 3: anyone was here in April twenty five, the word on
15:14
Speaker 3: the street was the bullmarket's dead mark. If anyone was here.
15:17
Speaker 3: In July of twenty four, the bullmarket was dead. If
15:20
Speaker 3: anyone was here. Back in September August area of twenty three,
15:24
Speaker 3: the ballmarket was dead. So we're at another place right
15:27
Speaker 3: now where the bullmarket is dead, that's the word on
15:29
Speaker 3: the street. But we're about to see something massive come out.
15:34
Speaker 3: And like I've just showed you, we've seen this in
15:36
Speaker 3: this you know, don't call the Fourier cycle, call it
15:39
Speaker 3: the every couple of months cycle where you wait for
15:42
Speaker 3: the highly anticipated news, you draw down into that news,
15:46
Speaker 3: and then when it launches, explosions and fireworks happened to
15:49
Speaker 3: the upside.
15:51
Speaker 1: Okay, with that being said, I want to bring something
15:53
Speaker 1: up on the chart that the team that we've been
15:55
Speaker 1: analyzing here this is just the macd on where the
15:59
Speaker 1: market's and this goes back here into February. You know,
16:04
Speaker 1: twenty two we saw basically which was the beginning of
16:06
Speaker 1: the bear market, market comes out. But now here we've
16:10
Speaker 1: got basically two months right now, Tim, that looks as
16:14
Speaker 1: though we might be going negative again. So is this
16:17
Speaker 1: a fake out because we have not seen that before
16:20
Speaker 1: in these kind of market cycles, to see a macdee
16:23
Speaker 1: respond this way specifically on bitcoin.
16:27
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's going to be too early to call that
16:29
Speaker 3: for certain. Here's what I'll I won't even try to deny.
16:32
Speaker 3: Every time the monthly chart has gone bearish when it
16:34
Speaker 3: comes to bitcoin, we start a bear market. Right This
16:37
Speaker 3: is one of the biggest rumblings of people who still
16:39
Speaker 3: leave in the fuller cycle. You know, we lost the
16:41
Speaker 3: fifty day weekly or the fifty weekly moving average. That's
16:44
Speaker 3: another big sign. Every time we lose that, we go
16:46
Speaker 3: into a bear market. We lost the monthly bullish macde
16:50
Speaker 3: we've crossed bearish. That's a major sign. But when you
16:54
Speaker 3: look at the stock market, when you look at the
16:56
Speaker 3: markets that these institutional players control, there's actually everal fake
17:00
Speaker 3: outs when it comes to the monthly macdee. And at
17:03
Speaker 3: some point we've all known this. At some point bitcoin
17:06
Speaker 3: and crypto will mature to a similar type of movements
17:10
Speaker 3: of the stock market. And that's a great indication right there. Yeah,
17:14
Speaker 3: you're looking at it. I think that's the sp fie hundred.
17:15
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's why head that was the one in May.
17:19
Speaker 3: If you, if you're an institutional buyer, you ignored that,
17:23
Speaker 3: and that actually marked the bottom. And what we're watching
17:26
Speaker 3: right now in the world of manipulation, it is clear
17:28
Speaker 3: that the institutions are manipulating bitcoin price. So we're playing
17:31
Speaker 3: a different game than we've ever played before. By no
17:34
Speaker 3: means am I saying that this promises that we're going
17:37
Speaker 3: to go into a major bull market. I don't think
17:39
Speaker 3: it's smart to ignore the bitcoin historical precedence, but it's
17:43
Speaker 3: also not smart to act like this is the same chart,
17:47
Speaker 3: the same market we've ever been in before. The amount
17:49
Speaker 3: of differences between the last twelve to twenty four months
17:53
Speaker 3: between its relation to the four year cycle in the past,
17:56
Speaker 3: it's it's monumental how different we are. So it's not
18:00
Speaker 3: clear cut right now. To make a clear depiction either way,
18:02
Speaker 3: you kind of have to go with You have to
18:04
Speaker 3: go with your gut of what you truly believe in.
18:06
Speaker 3: And what I'm watching now, I think the biggest thing
18:09
Speaker 3: to watch is what do risk on assets cryptos a
18:12
Speaker 3: risk on asset class. What do risk on asset classes
18:15
Speaker 3: do during periods of quantitative easing? It is overwhelming they
18:20
Speaker 3: go to the upside. That to me is the biggest
18:22
Speaker 3: thing to tie to the past.
18:24
Speaker 2: All right, so a couple of things.
18:25
Speaker 1: Even though that does have a correlation to historical patterns, which.
18:30
Speaker 2: You know, maybe not.
18:31
Speaker 1: I mean people would say, well could that one break?
18:33
Speaker 1: Because if we're seeing one historical patterns breaking now with bitcoin,
18:37
Speaker 1: all right, here's bit why is this course Matt Hogan
18:40
Speaker 1: talking about this twenty twenty six prediction. Tom Lee has
18:43
Speaker 1: the same one, which is that Bitcoin's going to break
18:46
Speaker 1: the four year cycle, will get a new all time high.
18:48
Speaker 1: Forces like bitcoin having interest rates, you know, crypto booms,
18:51
Speaker 1: bus feel by leverage weaker in the past cycles, institutions
18:55
Speaker 1: now obviously City Morgan wells everybody moving in this is
18:59
Speaker 1: the big one that he goes in on it.
19:01
Speaker 5: Now.
19:01
Speaker 1: I want to go to a clip that gets into
19:04
Speaker 1: Tom Lee's predictions also looming into January, which may be
19:09
Speaker 1: in alignment with everything we're talking about.
19:11
Speaker 6: Listen it cryptos had a rough year. It was actually
19:15
Speaker 6: having a great year, until October tenth than any event
19:18
Speaker 6: in history. The most recent one before this would have
19:21
Speaker 6: been twenty twenty two with FTX, and that wipeout pales
19:26
Speaker 6: in comparison to what happened on October tenth. But in
19:29
Speaker 6: twenty twenty two, it took eight weeks before crypto the
19:33
Speaker 6: smoke cleared. The leverage wipeout was noth in the mirror
19:38
Speaker 6: that crypto prices began to recover. This week is the
19:43
Speaker 6: eighth week since that crisis, and I think crypto prices
19:47
Speaker 6: are beginning to actually recover. That's why I think bitcoin
19:52
Speaker 6: can can double from here by the end of January.
19:55
Speaker 6: And that's going to be the big question. If bitcoin
19:57
Speaker 6: breaks one twenty five in January, there is no for
20:01
Speaker 6: your cycle.
20:02
Speaker 1: I don't think that is going to happen, all right,
20:05
Speaker 1: So that was mine. I'm not going to say a
20:07
Speaker 1: doubling is going to happen in January. That would be
20:10
Speaker 1: almost a two hundred thousand dollars bitcoin by the end
20:14
Speaker 1: of January. So I mean, do we break the all
20:16
Speaker 1: time hi? Maybe that's a shot at it with good narratives,
20:20
Speaker 1: clarity proving outs that inflation is really happening. Maybe more
20:26
Speaker 1: rumblings at the FED that we get another rate drop
20:29
Speaker 1: in January. Maybe those kind of things could indicate it.
20:32
Speaker 1: But I just don't know what is your opinion right now?
20:35
Speaker 1: Do you agree with tom or do you feel like
20:38
Speaker 1: this a longer cycle.
20:40
Speaker 3: I agree with the heartbeat that Tom Lee is coming
20:43
Speaker 3: at it with. Okay, well, October tenth was rough. There's
20:46
Speaker 3: two things I disagree with Tom Lee about in this clip.
20:49
Speaker 3: Number one, right on the nose, bitcoin doubling by the
20:52
Speaker 3: end of January, as you disagreed in the clip that
20:54
Speaker 3: you responded to it, I'm on your page there too fast,
20:58
Speaker 3: too soon, that all coins double in price, Like could
21:02
Speaker 3: I see a theoryum get to like, you know, five thousand,
21:05
Speaker 3: a little over five thousand, sure, but bitcoin to let's
21:08
Speaker 3: go right now one hundred and ninety thousand dollars by
21:11
Speaker 3: the end of January. That's too much, too fast. But
21:14
Speaker 3: I agree with the heartbeat of a recovery should be coming.
21:18
Speaker 3: The other thing I disagree with him on I want
21:20
Speaker 3: to move back, and we mentioned it here in this show,
21:22
Speaker 3: but he said, well, actually crypto was having quite a
21:24
Speaker 3: good year until October tenth. It was having a better
21:27
Speaker 3: year than it is right now, but it was not
21:29
Speaker 3: having a good year. Like we go back and look
21:31
Speaker 3: at when you look at twenty twenty one, when you
21:33
Speaker 3: look at twenty seventeen, when you look at twenty thirteen,
21:36
Speaker 3: these are major bullish year candles. And let's just pretend
21:41
Speaker 3: we were still at one hundred and twenty six thousand
21:43
Speaker 3: right now with bitcoin. Let's pretend the theoreum was still
21:45
Speaker 3: over four thousand per coin. That is still if you
21:48
Speaker 3: were to look at those candles, it would still not
21:50
Speaker 3: be impressive. It's one of the reasons why you know, people,
21:53
Speaker 3: there's a guy that comments on my show Overy Day.
21:55
Speaker 3: We love the comment section. There's a guy that says, clownshew,
21:57
Speaker 3: I'm sure he was medius a clown show likes to
22:00
Speaker 3: reference price predictions that I've made way back at the
22:03
Speaker 3: end of the year about some high levels some of
22:05
Speaker 3: these alt coins could have gotten to by the edit
22:06
Speaker 3: twenty by five. Well, guess what, the same people calling
22:10
Speaker 3: me a clown for these outlandish predictions, but they want
22:13
Speaker 3: to hold onto the four year cycle. If the four
22:15
Speaker 3: year cycle was still intact, my price predictions would have
22:18
Speaker 3: come true because this was supposed to be the biggest,
22:20
Speaker 3: most bullish year for the crypto markets, and we didn't
22:23
Speaker 3: even get close, which means everything has changed. We are
22:28
Speaker 3: playing a different game right now. It makes it in
22:31
Speaker 3: some ways more challenging. But that's why it goes back
22:34
Speaker 3: to question as earlier. I'm not as interested right now,
22:37
Speaker 3: Paul in looking at former bitcoin charts and former allt
22:40
Speaker 3: coin charts. I want to look at them. I want
22:42
Speaker 3: to take them into consideration. I think it's a whole
22:44
Speaker 3: lot more interesting right now to go back and say,
22:47
Speaker 3: what did gold look like after gold received its ETF
22:51
Speaker 3: What did the emerging computer technology world look like after
22:55
Speaker 3: mass adoption of computers. That's what we're talking about now
22:58
Speaker 3: right now with crypto. I think crypto's.
23:03
Speaker 1: It's yeah, the narrative has started to shift dramatically. It's
23:08
Speaker 1: the new cycle. Obviously, data is being pushed now into
23:11
Speaker 1: the markets, and this is how Wall Street responds all
23:15
Speaker 1: the time. This is not something new for Wall Street.
23:17
Speaker 1: So it's just different because in the past crypto has
23:20
Speaker 1: responded by cycles and charts and because that's what the
23:25
Speaker 1: market was essentially allowing it to do. Once you enter
23:28
Speaker 1: the game of Wall Street, it no longer does that.
23:31
Speaker 1: I mean, it has a certain amount of cycles and charts,
23:34
Speaker 1: but it's really about narrative performance. How Wall Street perceives
23:39
Speaker 1: the market to be. We also have to look at
23:42
Speaker 1: perceptions of this right here and this is the Bank
23:44
Speaker 1: of Japan Monetary policy meeting concludes tonight, this course converts
23:49
Speaker 1: prox will convert to approximately nine tonight, we'll know. Big
23:54
Speaker 1: question for crypto is the expected rate hike baked in.
23:58
Speaker 2: So here's my question.
24:00
Speaker 1: Were gonna We're gonna answer the poll, our own poll
24:01
Speaker 1: here today.
24:03
Speaker 2: What do you think, yes we.
24:05
Speaker 1: Bottomed, quick dip than all time high or the bear
24:08
Speaker 1: market is here?
24:09
Speaker 2: Which one would you choose? Oh man, bottom dip all
24:15
Speaker 2: time high.
24:15
Speaker 3: My answer is, I don't know. I want to hear
24:17
Speaker 3: what happens, but I'm going to lean towards no quick
24:19
Speaker 3: dip than all time high. It would be my middle.
24:21
Speaker 3: I'll go with the middle answer.
24:22
Speaker 5: There.
24:22
Speaker 2: Let's go there and see if well, see, oh wow, if.
24:25
Speaker 3: You agreed with the audience, that's not good. Poll, it's
24:28
Speaker 3: not good. It is not good. When I line up
24:31
Speaker 3: with the masses, that's that's not a good thing. I
24:33
Speaker 3: like being in the minority.
24:36
Speaker 1: So yeah, well, you know it's a The good thing
24:40
Speaker 1: is is I'm gonna I think I felt like I
24:42
Speaker 1: would have gone, we've bottomed, just to go.
24:46
Speaker 3: Okay, that was closer. That's closer to the minority, you know.
24:50
Speaker 3: But here's the thing is this is gonna happen tonight.
24:52
Speaker 3: And clearly the bag of Japan is a little bit
24:54
Speaker 3: different than the FMC. Right, They don't have an exact
24:56
Speaker 3: time they announce it. They don't always have a press conference,
24:59
Speaker 3: although ESPEC actually when they think they usually I guess
25:01
Speaker 3: what I understood my research. Someone might correct me on this.
25:04
Speaker 3: When they don't do anything, when they pause rates, there's
25:06
Speaker 3: no press conference, But when they raise or cut rates,
25:10
Speaker 3: they usually have a press conference. Their governor comes out
25:12
Speaker 3: and speaks. And just like we talked about here in
25:14
Speaker 3: the United States, the rate decision is important from the FMC,
25:17
Speaker 3: But what's even more important is Jerome Powell's presence at
25:21
Speaker 3: the press conference. Is he hawkish? Is he dubbish? Does
25:23
Speaker 3: he give us hope that things are getting better in
25:25
Speaker 3: the future, or do he say things like he has
25:27
Speaker 3: been recently. We have to keep reviewing the data. We
25:29
Speaker 3: have to keep reviewing the data. That's going to be
25:31
Speaker 3: important tonight. The governor Japan he'll be speaking in Japanese.
25:34
Speaker 3: We I'll have to listen to a translation of it.
25:36
Speaker 3: Does he come out Paul, And does he say we
25:39
Speaker 3: are so glad about where we are as an economy.
25:41
Speaker 3: This is the last rate hike. We're going to be
25:43
Speaker 3: in such a strong position. If that comes out a
25:46
Speaker 3: dubbish approach, I think the bottom's in. I think we
25:48
Speaker 3: start to remove to the upside. But if he gives
25:50
Speaker 3: us a Jerome Palell esque, don't know what the future
25:54
Speaker 3: holds to review the data that to me would only
25:58
Speaker 3: be a nail in the coffin the bottom, is not it?
26:01
Speaker 2: Okay? All right? I like your analysis.
26:04
Speaker 1: There will be await on unbated breath here tonight December eighteenth.
26:07
Speaker 1: We'll get that decision. We already know what's coming in.
26:09
Speaker 1: The question is to your point, how do they look
26:11
Speaker 1: at it? Going in the forward looking statements, ethereum is
26:15
Speaker 1: down forty two percent man from all time high.
26:18
Speaker 2: This is where this is the question.
26:19
Speaker 1: Everybody's asking, is the ETH bottom now or are we
26:23
Speaker 1: potentially going to see a lower ETH? When you look
26:26
Speaker 1: at the chart on ethereum right now? Is this the
26:28
Speaker 1: time to buy ethereum?
26:30
Speaker 2: At? What are we twenty seven hundred.
26:34
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're twenty eight to forty right now, here's the question.
26:38
Speaker 3: Here's gonna be a question, and tonight's going to play
26:40
Speaker 3: a big role in this. This is what I have
26:42
Speaker 3: at the moment. You can clearly see Ethereum is in
26:45
Speaker 3: a up trending level of support at the moment. If
26:48
Speaker 3: you're resuming nice and close here uptraining level support. So
26:52
Speaker 3: either the support level got hit and we're good here
26:55
Speaker 3: around the golden pocket level of fibonacci. If it does
26:59
Speaker 3: not hold, though, if we lose this trend line, I
27:01
Speaker 3: don't think it's as simple as just double bottoming back
27:03
Speaker 3: at twenty six hundred. If we lose this, I will
27:06
Speaker 3: be looking for a move closer to twenty five hundred
27:08
Speaker 3: per coin into the platinum pocket on Fibonacci, into a
27:13
Speaker 3: zone of some high support right here. I think also,
27:16
Speaker 3: if you were to use fixed range volume, this is
27:19
Speaker 3: going to be another key factor here as well. That's
27:21
Speaker 3: going to be our point of control right this is
27:23
Speaker 3: where the most amount of volume since the lows back
27:26
Speaker 3: in April has been. That seems like a strong If
27:29
Speaker 3: the support level we're currently holding doesn't hold, twenty five
27:33
Speaker 3: hundred dollars area for me is the next spot to
27:37
Speaker 3: watch for a bottom on a theory.
27:39
Speaker 2: There you go.
27:40
Speaker 1: All right, So if you guys are dolly cost dollar
27:41
Speaker 1: cost averaging in many places, I think you know, like myself,
27:44
Speaker 1: Ethereum is long term play. Uh, sure you can take profits,
27:48
Speaker 1: it's you know, over this last little bit maybe you
27:50
Speaker 1: have considering the long term play though, I think is
27:53
Speaker 1: going to be the picture to watch out right now,
27:55
Speaker 1: especially with these big asset classes, including if you think
27:58
Speaker 1: about an XRP dropped down on to one eighty six.
28:00
Speaker 1: If you look at XRP right now, do you feel
28:03
Speaker 1: like it has another leg down where we could go
28:06
Speaker 1: in and snap some of that up.
28:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, good question. When it comes to XRP, I don't
28:13
Speaker 3: see XRP taking a different route than Bitcoin in ethereum.
28:17
Speaker 3: I think right now it's very important to understand what
28:19
Speaker 3: the two big ones are doing, and unless there's something
28:22
Speaker 3: crazy fundamentally going on with a different coin, you're looking
28:25
Speaker 3: at a similar trajectory. When I look at the XRP chart,
28:29
Speaker 3: you have this former resistance level from back on the
28:32
Speaker 3: highs in January of twenty five. You know, we broke
28:34
Speaker 3: through this. This is a major bullish move here, but
28:36
Speaker 3: it was cut short. It should have gone a lot higher.
28:38
Speaker 3: But that's what we've kind of discussed throughout the show.
28:40
Speaker 3: This was a disappointing crypto year. I think you could
28:44
Speaker 3: see a revisit of this line. I think you could again,
28:46
Speaker 3: keyword could revisit. Level it's closer towards one sixty. Doesn't
28:51
Speaker 3: mean it will happen again. If we get some good
28:53
Speaker 3: news tonight slash tomorrow morning. There is a chance, and
28:56
Speaker 3: that's the keyword chance, the bottom is in. I you
28:59
Speaker 3: know you asked me earlier how I kind of view
29:01
Speaker 3: the markets right now. I'm extremely long term bullish, but
29:04
Speaker 3: I'm defensive and I'm not convinced for sure the bottom's in.
29:07
Speaker 3: So I have some buy orders at lower levels for
29:10
Speaker 3: a lot of my favorite cryptos, and some people are
29:12
Speaker 3: calling me barrish, and some people saying, Tim, why do
29:14
Speaker 3: you flip? I'm just trying to be as realistic as possible.
29:17
Speaker 3: I've gotten things wrong in the past. That doesn't affect
29:19
Speaker 3: my future. I'm going to continue to evaluate the charts
29:21
Speaker 3: of valuate the news and change my thoughts on the
29:25
Speaker 3: markets as things develop. Right now, tonight will be a
29:28
Speaker 3: pivotal moment. I still can see the one sixty to
29:31
Speaker 3: one fifty on XRP. So if you're a big XRP lover,
29:35
Speaker 3: that's great news. Buy it cheap, have some buy orders
29:37
Speaker 3: in preparation.
29:39
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. Let's go on to UNISWAP.
29:42
Speaker 1: Heresayn Adams talking about just submitted the unification proposal.
29:45
Speaker 2: This is for your final governance.
29:46
Speaker 1: This is going to be where they're going to be
29:48
Speaker 1: sharing yields back into the ecosystem. If it passes after
29:51
Speaker 1: two days, the timelock one hundred million unie swap will
29:55
Speaker 1: be burned. So this is bullish if you're looking at
29:59
Speaker 1: UNISWAP as a whole. But if you look at the
30:01
Speaker 1: chart for unie swap, it has struggled dramatically here recently.
30:05
Speaker 1: Where would you put this one right now? The vote
30:08
Speaker 1: is supposed to happen before Christmas or end up on.
30:12
Speaker 2: I like that, Hayden.
30:14
Speaker 1: It's always fun to listen to Where would you put
30:17
Speaker 1: uniswap though, in the near term and long term? Is
30:19
Speaker 1: this one of those you're looking forward? Would it be
30:21
Speaker 1: an all coin you would stick with?
30:25
Speaker 3: You know, it wouldn't be one that I'd put in
30:27
Speaker 3: my high convicted place. I do think there's a world.
30:29
Speaker 3: I think there's a future for unie swap. I think
30:32
Speaker 3: especially on the retail front. As far as how interested
30:35
Speaker 3: the institutions are in it. I are into it. You
30:38
Speaker 3: know there's an ETF filing, so that's a good sign.
30:40
Speaker 3: But I don't know. You don't hear rumblings of banks
30:44
Speaker 3: and large investment firms talking a whole lot about unicewap.
30:47
Speaker 3: That being said something about this chart. I just told
30:50
Speaker 3: you on the last one, look for something different to happen.
30:54
Speaker 3: This is clear, like this is a pretty clear demarcation
30:58
Speaker 3: of support that we just bounce off of. Again, yes,
31:00
Speaker 3: we have a couple of candles on daily charts. Let's
31:02
Speaker 3: go to the weekly chart here to kind of actually
31:04
Speaker 3: give anything. We have a couple of candles since the
31:07
Speaker 3: bear market ended back in twenty twenty two that have
31:10
Speaker 3: come below this level. But look at this support level
31:14
Speaker 3: that started back here in May of twenty nine two.
31:16
Speaker 3: Look how many bounces we have on it, even times
31:18
Speaker 3: we lost it. This was an area of rejection. So
31:21
Speaker 3: there's something about four dollars and seventy eight cent range
31:24
Speaker 3: on uniswap that is a very very big buy or
31:28
Speaker 3: sell place and with a recent bounce on this again,
31:32
Speaker 3: this could be one of those that the institutions, like
31:34
Speaker 3: I just said, don't really have their teeth sunk into,
31:37
Speaker 3: so they're not manipulating as much. So retail has kind
31:41
Speaker 3: of bottomed out here several times, and retail is the
31:43
Speaker 3: decider of hey, do we bounce here or not. The
31:46
Speaker 3: less institutions have their hands on you, the more likely
31:49
Speaker 3: you are into having your bottom in. It's the ones
31:51
Speaker 3: that institutions have sunk their teeth into that could go
31:54
Speaker 3: a little lower.
31:55
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, well, and it's interesting because we're now
31:59
Speaker 1: talking about instant tutions. Obviously, the challenge right now in
32:02
Speaker 1: DC is that the banks are going head to head
32:05
Speaker 1: with the crypto markets, mainly because of DeFi privacy, you know,
32:08
Speaker 1: issuance on stable coins, how we're going to deal with
32:10
Speaker 1: yields all that. The good thing is is that all
32:13
Speaker 1: of this is front and center for sure, so both
32:16
Speaker 1: in Wall Street d C, which only to me looks
32:20
Speaker 1: long term bullish, and I think for many of you
32:22
Speaker 1: guys watching right now, you may be looking at this
32:25
Speaker 1: much like stocks because many people are worried about our
32:27
Speaker 1: wen and I AI bubble could we see in video fall,
32:30
Speaker 1: especially if you look at some of the most recent
32:33
Speaker 1: departures of funding that's going into some of these data centers.
32:38
Speaker 1: So there's a lot still on the ground around decisions
32:42
Speaker 1: being made that will affect twenty twenty six for sure. Tim,
32:45
Speaker 1: thanks so much for coming in today. We appreciate you
32:48
Speaker 1: stopping by.
32:49
Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for having me.
32:50
Speaker 2: Paul, You bet all right, So you guys know what
32:52
Speaker 2: to do.
32:53
Speaker 1: Make sure and jump into our own private member group
32:56
Speaker 1: that's the bar and Market Edge. You can join over
32:58
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33:00
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33:02
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33:05
Speaker 1: level research. We also do some sentiment and trend analysis there,
33:09
Speaker 1: stuff that we don't necessarily do here on the show
33:11
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33:13
Speaker 1: Paul Baron. We'll catch the next time right here on
33:15
Speaker 1: The Paul Baron Show.