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WEEK 9 College Football Picks: Are They Spot On? · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:00
Now. What's up guys, we are getting
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ready for Week 9 of the college football season.
0:08
Welcome to targeting winners. I am Darren, joined by Tim and
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Pete. Guys, week 8, fun week, great
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week. We all got to get together and
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go see UCF Battle West Virginia, but we are back in our regular
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homes. Little sunburn, little fatter,
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but you know, that's what happens when, you know, you send
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old fat guys on vacation, we get sunburned, we get fatter.
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But anyway, all back ready for another week of college
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football. Tim, how we doing?
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Great so far so good. Off to week 9 I guess.
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Got off to a good start the other day.
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Delaware getting an early opportunity to win the Rusty
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Butt Cheeks award for that wonderful clock management and
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passing with your backup quarterback.
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But that's for another day. Pete, how we doing today?
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I'm doing great. There's a lot of food last week.
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So yeah, a little fatter little we're in the hat here from from
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our game last Saturday. But had a had a great time and
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it was a lot of fun to get out to a game this year.
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So good to be back as well. Sunburn is peeling off slowly.
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But it is, I noticed like my left ear, cause like where we
1:14
were sitting, the sun was just like beating down on our left
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sides the entire day. And yeah, but my, my wife can't
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pick on me about being pasty anymore 'cause, you know, the
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burn has started to fade and appropriate time to get a tan
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the end of October when nobody cares.
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But anyway, so yes, to manage, we had a couple of Conference
1:33
USA games to start the week. I kind of got a mini rant in
1:36
about Delaware. We're not going to go there
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because, you know, we're all back from vacation.
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We're probably all had busy weeks at work so far.
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No sense getting irritated right off the bat.
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We did have a comment on on one of the shorts from our guy Drew.
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Want to know if we had any thoughts about tonight's stand
1:54
alone Sunbelt match up. And so Tim, we'll start with you
1:57
your South Alabama Jaguars looks like they're laying 6 1/2 at
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Georgia State with a total of 54 1/2.
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He just wanted to know if we had any thoughts on this.
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I I, I have maybe the slightest of liens to the over looks like
2:13
we got a couple of dual threat quarterbacks and crappy
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defenses. No bet for me, but if you had to
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have action because you don't have Amazon Prime like I do, not
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to watch the NFL game. Slightest of leads to the over
2:29
here, but I don't know if you guys had any.
2:31
Thoughts. I was actually thinking the same
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things. I know the defense can't slap
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anybody, so at least one team's going to score a lot.
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Depends on how much out South Alabama scores.
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But yeah, I'm, I'm leaning pretty big towards the courtesy
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over myself as far as who wins both of these teams.
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Speaking of fast cheeks, double award for next week.
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But yeah, I would I would stay away from who wins and I would
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say, you know, concentrate on the scoring.
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I would lean over for the scoring if I was going to bet on
3:01
this. Pete, what do you think?
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Yeah, same. I think I would lean over.
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I mean the recent performances in scoring wouldn't suggest an
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over, but this matchup would. The weather would, you know, so
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that's why I didn't play it. I was torn on it.
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But yeah, if I had to go anywhere, I'd go the over.
3:18
Yeah, I think if Cameron Brown starts over TJ Finley for
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Georgia State, I think you have to go over there that that
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offense is just a lot better when he's the quarterback.
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But yeah, I mean, I'll probably watch, you know, there's not a
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good hockey game on or something, but yeah, a couple of
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one in six teams. Yeah.
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Yeah, I just. Yeah, but anyway, Drew, slightly
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into the over, you know, so I don't know how many other
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opinions you've got out there. There you go.
3:46
You got three more slightly into the over.
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I don't believe any of us had anything for Friday, but we'll
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take a quick peek at that. North Texas laying 25 1/2 at
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Charlotte, Cal getting 5 1/2 at Virginia Tech, and Boise laying
4:00
21 1/2 at Nevada. Any thoughts on that?
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I don't like I'll get in five, but other than that, I, I would
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stay away from both of those if you're, if that was in the RPO
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segment, a big pass. No thanks.
4:15
Eat anything. Strike your fancy on that
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trifecta of awesomeness. Yeah, that I mean the, I don't
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know. I mean, I, I was taking a look
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at the Cal Virginia Tech thing. I, I don't know, I was leaning
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under there, but I, I didn't really do anything.
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Boise State, Nevada, I mean, I was once again, I was leaning on
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the over, but it's just a slight lean.
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Neither of those really felt too, too clear to me.
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So no, I don't have much there. Yeah, I had a slight lean on
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Boise. I mean, I'd rather see 21 than
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21 1/2, but Nevada's just that. That may be I, I believe I
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thought I read somewhere in Nevada might be headed into a
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bye week or something about the buyout drops a ton for that guy
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for was it Jeff Chode? I think his name is after
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January 1st. So maybe they wait, but seems
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like a lot of these coaches are getting canned right after, you
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know, the Sunday after game, knowing that the team's going
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into a bye week. So they have like 2 weeks to to
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kind of get some new people in place.
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But yeah, I, I didn't have any Boise State.
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If it was 21, maybe I would have fired, but nothing all right, so
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nothing for Thursday and Friday for us.
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So guys, any, any thoughts from the two games?
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I know, Tim, you were hope you bought like a scratch off or
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something because I mean, you had, you know, overtime where
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where unders go to die. You've got the multiple messed
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up field goal attempts. I mean, you're you're you're,
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you were living right man cuz. A.
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Lot went right there. Well Speaking of that game, if
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you're watching on YouTube, you can see I our first ass cheeks
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of the year an actual slide for it this time yeah this game was
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horrible congratulations to Western Kentucky.
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They sucked slightly less than Louisiana Tech.
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One highlight of the game so the opening kickoff of the
6:01
second-half. Thank God the diplomat season 3
6:06
started and my wife wanted to watch that.
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So we skipped out halfway through the 3rd and I just
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happened to see block field goal on the the game cast and then oh
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another by I thought it was the same team in the game.
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The screen just didn't reload. No2 block field goals.
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Yeah boy, this you know, it's a few hours of your life.
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You're not going to get back and you got happy to the bet hit.
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It was on the short. We put out a short this week.
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So if you saw that on YouTube, you know, hopefully you played
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along the over hit for me and if you saw it on YouTube, something
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like 700 people saw it. Like if they could get those
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people to like and subscribe, that'd be great.
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While you're watching the video, while you're there, you know
6:49
you. Got a free winner?
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Give it a like and a subscription.
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Was this 731 or something like that happened?
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Well, I think it was higher than that actually.
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Like YouTube was weird. Like I was looking at it and it
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was like it's 6 something, then it went down to like 5 something
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and then it went back up to like 8 something.
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So I'm not really sure how you can lose 100 views on a video.
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Plus people were watching like 205% of it.
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I, I, I don't know how that's possible.
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But then again, you know, we all went to Mohammed and I, I, we
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all don't really understand YouTube so.
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It's my obvious next appeal is what it was.
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That could be I mean next sells bro.
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That's that's why we need you to just make shorts every week.
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Yeah, I got to use all this, you know.
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That's right. Yeah, I think we're I think
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we're done for Conference USA now.
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Don't we start Mac? Goodness.
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I don't know if there's any other Conference USA Halloween,
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but yeah, I'm. Bringing on the Mac.
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Come on. Yeah, I think we're about ready
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for some some some more awful weekday football.
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But yeah, well, I'm excited, not gonna lie.
7:54
All right, so Tuesday, Wednesday's come and gone.
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Thursday and Friday we have nothing official that we've
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locked in. So let's get into Saturday.
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Well, all right, I've got my first game's up here at the
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first one. It's Saturday at noon.
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We have Virginia at North Carolina.
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Virginia giving 10 points. I jumped on this rather quickly,
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even before I look at some of the stats, because that's when I
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looked at the game. I was like, well, Virginia ought
8:20
to win by 17 at least, and that's how it was only 10.
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So I'm like, OK, let's jump on that pretty quickly.
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Weather is going to be 65°, which is perfect for getting
8:32
your ass kicked in Chapel Hill. So North Carolina should have a
8:35
problem there. Virginia's five and two against
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the spread. UNC is is 3 and 3.
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You know, the quarterbacks are terrible.
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Sorry, Gio, my boy, but you know, he only throws short.
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The other guy only throws interceptions and it's just been
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a bad year for everyone up in Chapel Bill and I think I think
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they keep it close. Maybe in the first half or by
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the end of the halfway through the 3rd beginning of the 4th,
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everyone's going to be Googling, you know, best barbecue in
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Chapel Hill and don't have to leave early.
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And I see Virginia just you know, just easily there's the E
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word having no problem covering this 10 points.
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So I I like Virginia here that I like the way they run the ball.
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You know, they protect the quarterback spends a lot of time
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out of pocket. He has time to throw the team
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looks for real. I did not see this coming.
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Very much. So, yeah, I like Virginia.
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Give the points to North Carolina.
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Hey any thoughts boys? I mean at this point.
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My surprise team in this conference.
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I'm sorry. No, you got keep going.
9:45
No, go ahead. I was just trying to pull up
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stats because the one thing I was going to disagree with, I
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agree with everything other than Tim saying that both
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quarterbacks are bad. I think Chandler Morris is
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actually kind of good. He's the main reason that
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Virginia's having quite the season that they're having.
10:01
So yeah, I mean, I think Virginia should cover here.
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They have the much better quarterback.
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North Carolina was somewhat competitive at Cal, but you
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never know what kind of version of Cal you're going to get
10:09
anyway. So, yeah, I agree with this.
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This will be the official end, Tim, of our futures bets
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involving North Carolina. I I'm, I have a feeling, but
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yeah, I mean, how do you, how do you go against Virginia at this
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point? I already chalked that one up as
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a loss. I didn't even.
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I didn't even wait. I have my own chart on keeping
10:25
track of. I just slacked that one out so
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it is dead. I think I put an L on mine
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Sunday night after I got back from our trip.
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I was like, yeah, this is not so.
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Yeah, agree with with which which you both said.
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I mean, North Carolina is as I predicted before the season
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started, is just a disaster. It's going to continue to be a
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disaster. I, I, I, I would lay those
10:46
points all day long here. I think that's a, that's a great
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bet. I love it.
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All right, Well, since we're going chronologically, we got
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another one of mine here. So buckle up folks.
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We have Arkansas getting a point and a half hosting Auburn.
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This was this was weird. I mean, they got a point and a
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half and the money line was the same as if they were just to or
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the juice was the same if you're just bet them to win overall.
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So I just took them to win. Doesn't quite count as a money
11:17
line sprinkle. So but it's it's probably going
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to rain. But judging on what I saw last
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week, we saw a lot of Arkansas last week.
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They can, they're pretty explosive.
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They have their own #10 that quarterback, I forget his name,
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but they put up 42 I believe, last week in Texas A&M.
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It's a very good team. The only thing as far as the
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things that I look at that favors Auburn is the turnover
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margin. And it's a big gap.
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I think it's a + 8 or 9 gap. But I think Arkansas should be
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able to sustain a lot of the drives.
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I I just think they're going to build on a loss last week
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because, you know, they, it's technically a good loss.
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I hate saying that because there's no such thing as a good
12:02
loss, but they lost to a very good team.
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I think they're currently ranked 4th if you care about the
12:07
rankings, which I don't, but a lot of people think they're
12:09
good. So yeah, I like Arkansas to win
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this game. Even though they're getting a
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point and a half, the juice is the same, you know, just bet
12:17
them to win outright and enjoy it.
12:23
Yeah, I'll jump in. I looked at the over on this 55
12:26
1/2. I agree, Arkansas look good.
12:28
I think there's going to be a lot of scoring in this game.
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I I was considering playing the over here if there was a little
12:34
bit lower, if I can get that number on, I don't know, 54 or
12:37
something, I would definitely play the over.
12:38
So kind of in that little weird in between area with with that
12:42
number. But yeah, I think it's going to
12:44
be a lot of scoring and I think Arkansas is going to do a lot of
12:46
scoring as well just by themselves.
12:48
So love that bet all together. Yeah, This is just kind of, I
12:53
mean, not to really simplify it, but you got a team that's shown
12:56
that it can score against a team that's shown that it cannot
12:58
score. I mean, why wouldn't you take
13:00
Arkansas here? The only possible thing I would
13:04
be concerned about is there some talk that all three Auburn
13:08
quarterbacks might play this week.
13:09
So, I mean, I don't know who you're going to see, whether
13:12
you're going to see a different guy where it's going to be a
13:14
combination two of the three, or whether you're going to see all
13:17
three. Who the hell knows?
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I mean, Hugh Freeze is probably out of a job on Sunday morning
13:22
if they lose this game. I mean, Arkansas can't stop
13:26
anybody, but doesn't seem like they can score on anybody.
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So yeah, I mean, just a simple handicap for me to, you know,
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and a spread less than a field goal.
13:34
You take the team that can score.
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Yeah. That makes sense.
13:39
I mean, it's, it's, you know, it's the, the best my three
13:42
brain cells could come up with. But I mean, how, how can you
13:45
try? I mean, I bet on 2 Auburn games
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and I'm, I'm Owen 2. So I'm the last one anybody
13:49
should be listening to when it comes to picking a game
13:52
involving Auburn. But I I haven't.
13:56
I mean, we can talk about the SEC official getting permanently
13:59
banned. Thanks, that really helped my
14:01
Auburn plus 3 1/2 against Georgia when you made the wrong
14:03
call and national television serves you right, you unemployed
14:06
bastard. But anyway.
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I digress. Yeah, I mean, I I if I had to
14:11
bet this game, which I'm anti Auburn games the rest of the
14:15
year, yeah yeah, give me the team that can score it's.
14:18
Your version of me with the Lane Kiffin effect.
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This is to her. That's why, that's why that's
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one of the that's why we track our bets.
14:26
What have I learned this year? Don't bet on Auburn game.
14:28
That's simple. Going to move on to next one.
14:32
We got Saturday at 3:30. We've got BYU and Iowa State.
14:38
Iowa State leads the series 5 and O, that's something to look
14:41
at. But BYU five and two against the
14:43
spread. Iowa State 3, three and one.
14:46
All right, Darren, is this one of yours?
14:48
Yeah. And I didn't look at any of
14:49
that, but I guess, but I guess that's a little comforting.
14:53
So Iowa State is laying 2 1/2 here.
14:56
Everything that I looked at tells me I should have probably
15:02
bet BYU, but I just think you're going to see people are going to
15:07
see that a little 11 next to their name when they open their
15:10
apps and they're just going to pile on BYU here.
15:14
Couple reasons why I'm going with the Cyclones here.
15:16
I don't know. A few weeks ago they lost two of
15:18
their top corners again, Cincinnati.
15:20
Their defense was was pretty bad.
15:22
They are coming off that bye week.
15:25
Matt Campbell is usually pretty good at overcoming things like
15:28
this. There's a team that was 5 and O
15:29
they have lost two in a row since those injuries.
15:33
BYU, they had, you know what, what they consider one of those
15:36
big rivalry games with Utah. Yeah, they won.
15:39
But if you look at the box score, they kind of got out
15:41
played. They they, they kind of got
15:43
lucky to to get that one under their belt.
15:45
So I'm going with a little bit of a of an emotional let down
15:48
here for the Cougars. And, you know, Iowa State's two
15:52
lost in a row. We're both in the conference.
15:53
So we we do know that this is a big 12A7 and two team will
15:57
almost certainly be playing for the conference title.
16:00
So, you know, not saying, you know, that doesn't guarantee
16:04
that Ohio State's going to win this by three or more, but I
16:06
think this is the one game that we're going to get their best
16:09
effort. And with an extra week to prep,
16:12
you know, I, I'm going to take the chance that, that Rocco back
16:14
to, I mean, come on, man, Who's more big game than Rocco Beck?
16:17
Is there anybody I don't even know if there is, you know, it's
16:20
2 1/2. It's a little highly juiced.
16:23
I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna count on Rocco Beck and Matt Campbell
16:25
to figure some things out off that bye week.
16:27
And, and BYUI think a little bit of a let down after that big win
16:31
last week. Hey, I want a big travel spot.
16:33
And you got to go almost across the country to, to play Iowa
16:36
State. So I got 1.
16:38
You did on Iowa State laying 2 1/2.
16:41
Well, it's a good bet, you know, either way for for my futures,
16:45
best for this conference. I think I have both of them to
16:47
win the Big 12. Ones 9 to 1 and ones 8 to 1 I
16:51
believe for eight and a. Half you had like half the
16:54
conference to win. I don't remember if I it wasn't
16:56
a BY in Colorado, in Utah, I think in Colorado in.
17:00
Utah, I believe. And Colorado, right?
17:03
I don't. I didn't think you had Iowa
17:04
State. Maybe you did.
17:05
Yeah, I had too many you. Had a lot of Big 12 stuff going
17:08
on. You know what, that's next week.
17:09
We'll, that'll be the Week 10 update.
17:12
We got a yeah, we got a few more wins and losses that are
17:16
definite now, so. Any thoughts Peter?
17:22
Yeah, I know. I like that bet.
17:23
I I was looking at the over under, which was 48 1/2 and I
17:27
was, I was leaning on the under in this game just because I'm
17:29
not exactly comfortable with the scoring that's going to come out
17:32
of here. But I do like BYU laying at at 1
17:34
1/2. So I would definitely go that
17:36
direction and really not touch the total here.
17:41
We're gonna move on. We got a 330 game.
17:43
We have Missouri and Vanderbilt. Dan, is this one of yours again?
17:48
I think. We got those and this was real
17:50
simple that. Call me nuts man, but does this
17:53
just feel like that? This after all the crap football
17:57
that Vanderbilt has put out for decades, does it just not feel
18:00
like that this is their year? Am I crazy by thinking that?
18:03
I mean they just took down LSU their own what?
18:06
Their only loss was to Bama. No shame there.
18:11
I I trust Pavi a little bit more than I trust Privula in this
18:14
game. I know Ahmad Hardy is probably
18:16
going to have a big part in this game for Missouri, but man, I
18:22
don't know, man. Call this a gut feeling.
18:24
I don't have too much statistical analysis here.
18:27
These teams are pretty equal depending on what you look at.
18:31
Got something? Yeah, I just look at this
18:33
Vanderbilt team and how many weeks we think, you know.
18:35
OK, yeah, this is the week that it all goes crashing down.
18:41
You know, after Alabama, they've they've played great.
18:44
After that Alabama game, you know, Missouri hasn't been away
18:47
from home too much. Things only went their second
18:49
Rd. game of the year so far. They did play pretty solid
18:53
against against Bama, so give them credit for that.
18:56
But Oh no, man, it's, it's Vanderbilt's.
19:02
Yeah, I, I just said it's Vanderbilt's year, man.
19:04
I, I think this is a game they win.
19:05
I think I got 2, 2 1/2 I laid here.
19:08
It's a little bit juiced. Can you imagine Vanderbilt SEC
19:13
champions? I If Vandy and Bama play again
19:17
in the SEC Championship, would it really surprise anybody?
19:19
And I know they need a couple, couple teams to get some losses
19:24
in there, but. I would prefer they play Texas
19:27
A&M. Well.
19:29
That's fair. I would prefer that they play
19:31
that too for for your sake, but God, I don't know, man, I, they,
19:37
they haven't fallen. We've been waiting for them to
19:39
fall and they just have not I, it's just Clark Lee's got it
19:43
going down there, man. I almost made this A2 unit play,
19:48
but I was like, no, I'm not hard.
19:49
He'll rush for 300 yards or something if I do that.
19:51
So I, I did not. But yeah, just, I, I mean, Vandy
19:56
took down LSU and, and that pretty good defense.
20:00
I don't think Missouri's defense is as solid as what LSU is
20:03
putting out there, but. And it's at home, so yeah.
20:06
Gimme Vandy, Gimme Vandy. Any other thoughts, Pete?
20:11
No, we talked about it last week with both Vandy and Indiana,
20:13
right? Are these teams real or not?
20:15
And I think we came away at the conclusion that they are real,
20:17
right? And so I agree with Aaron.
20:19
I mean, it just feels like Vandy is going to keep rolling here.
20:22
And so I expect that will happen.
20:23
So I love that bet. Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing a
20:26
Vandy, Indiana championship game.
20:28
That would be fun honestly. I prefer Vandy or Indiana and
20:32
Texas A&M again for my future bet, but it'd.
20:36
Be fun to see 22 totally different teams that, you know,
20:38
weren't that highly thought of play, play in the game.
20:41
That'd be great. Oh yeah, I mean, the ratings
20:44
would be terrible, but it'd be great.
20:46
Oh, well, that's what's that's what's really important, you
20:48
know, is the rating. So I think we got a double
20:51
feature here on our next game at 4:15, we have Texas visiting
20:54
Mississippi State. I believe Texas leads historical
21:00
series 3 to 2 and they won last year 35 to 13.
21:05
Not much of A weather factor. It might rain in the
21:08
second-half, but other than that, it seems pretty good.
21:10
Who wants to go first, boys? I will take this one.
21:14
So total number here, 53 and half, yeah.
21:20
I mean, I have largely no faith whatsoever in Texas and their
21:24
offense, their defence is good. Their offense has been something
21:27
to be be desired. They've they've left a lot of
21:29
the floor. I don't know what's going on
21:31
there. I don't think they're going to
21:32
magically heal themselves. They look very inefficient.
21:36
If it does rain in the second-half, which absolutely
21:38
could happen, I I think that will be another issue for that
21:42
offense actually getting anything going, especially
21:45
trying to score any number of points.
21:47
So yeah, I really, I really like the under here, so I will take
21:51
the under for this game. And for a lot of the reasons
21:56
that Pete mentioned, I took the seven with Mississippi State.
21:59
I mean, we all watched Texas and Kentucky last Saturday night.
22:04
Did anybody see anything from Texas that led you to believe
22:08
that this is the week they they suddenly turn it on and become
22:12
the team that everybody thought in August that they were going
22:15
to be this offensive lines got problems.
22:19
Their head coach, he's still the play caller.
22:21
And she asked Billy Napier how that worked out for him while he
22:24
continued to call the plays. They're just I CJ Baxter
22:28
supposed to come back, but he I believe was a hamstring injury.
22:31
He's probably going to be unlimited carries, I would
22:34
guess. And Mississippi State's already
22:37
exceeded their expectations. Pete, I think that was your
22:39
first win total cash over 3 1/2 like 4 games into the season.
22:43
You know, night time with those cowbells.
22:45
Well, it's not night time. I guess it's a 4:00 game.
22:47
But still, that's can't be a good environment for a, for an
22:51
offensive line like Tex that isn't playing well.
22:53
I expect some false starts. I expect Manning to be under a
22:56
lot of pressure. And honestly, I think Blake
22:58
Chapin coming in is probably the better quarterback at this point
23:01
in the season. Yes, he had that ass
23:03
interception at the end. They should have beaten Florida.
23:06
But if they can put up that kind of effort against Florida on the
23:10
road, I mean, they should be able to stay within 7 at home.
23:13
So this is kind of more of a Texas fade than anything just
23:17
because we watch them. I mean, they should have lost to
23:19
Kentucky. And you know, Mark Stoops, can I
23:22
just tell you if we had an extra set of rusty gas cheeks to give
23:24
out? Dude, you're inside the 30 yard
23:27
line. You're you're down by three,
23:30
you've got 14 seconds left. Take a shot at the end zone.
23:32
Seriously, what have you got to lose at this point?
23:35
You're literally doing a disservice to your kids.
23:37
I mean, come on, you're not going anywhere.
23:39
Try and beat Texas. Wow, that's twice I've ranted.
23:42
We're only 20. 3 minutes. That's.
23:44
Good. That's good.
23:45
Yeah. Anyway.
23:45
Well, we're short right now, so that's good.
23:47
Hey, 11 minor correction here, by the way, for our listeners,
23:49
that over underline is not correct.
23:51
I didn't think so. It should be 45 1/2 and I'm
23:53
still under a 45 1/2, but it's a pretty big difference.
23:56
So I think we missed updating that.
23:57
But still that still speaks to the fact that I don't do much of
24:01
anything on offense as they have that.
24:03
So yeah. I just want to add, we do our
24:08
yearly football chip. Can we never go to Mississippi
24:11
State? Just.
24:12
I don't want to listen to those damn cowbells for three hours.
24:14
I would rather yeah, we're good without.
24:18
There's not enough to. Tell you right this going to
24:20
going to the high school football games here.
24:23
One of the football moms brings like a 6 to 8 pack of cowbells
24:28
and has passed them out to myself and other football
24:32
parents on various occasions. So I can speak to the
24:35
annoyingness as I have been annoying people with one Yeah
24:39
on. Occasion damned No, we do not
24:41
need more cowbell. No, I mean, I'd go to a game
24:45
with Christopher Walken if. You wanted to show us, but.
24:48
You know if. You're going to run here that.
24:51
'D be awesome you're. All morons kick the field goal.
24:56
Yeah, if if we go so I mean, I'd like we did what we did a Big 12
25:00
game. We last year we did an ACC.
25:02
I'd love to see if any of these colleges prefer the ones that
25:04
suck and the SEC or the Big 10 have inexpensive tickets.
25:08
At least we can hit all the all the power for conferences.
25:11
Yeah, I agree with Tim I yeah, we're old Headaches come easy.
25:16
I don't need to. Be sitting with.
25:17
Like 40,000 cowbells going at the same time.
25:21
Thankfully, we won't live long enough to make it there because
25:23
we have. Someone else that's also.
25:25
Right. All right, next 6:00 Saturday,
25:29
we've got TCU and West Virginia. TCU four and two against the
25:34
spread, West Virginia 3 and 4. We just saw West Virginia and
25:40
they are complete ass. I know Rich Rodger boy.
25:44
So with over under being 55 1/2, I took the over on this game.
25:49
TCU is explosive. I think they're a lot better.
25:53
If they seem better than UCFI think they'll take care of the
25:56
ball better, they'll prolong more drives.
25:59
They'll be on the field more even though it's on the road.
26:03
I almost like them. I think they were favored by 14
26:05
or 15 I believe. I even almost wanted them to
26:07
just cover the whole the whole spread here.
26:12
God, West Virginia just looks horrible.
26:15
I think they can probably score maybe 14, maybe 17.
26:19
TCU will take care of the rest. I'm expecting a big blowout win
26:22
here for TCU at West Virginia. They'll cover the 55 1/2.
26:27
Your thoughts? Yeah, I think we saw, I mean,
26:31
Rich Rod may be my boy, but he doesn't have his players yet.
26:34
And we clearly saw that last week, right?
26:36
He doesn't really have a quarterback.
26:37
He doesn't have any receivers. Says nobody's open ever.
26:40
There's nothing going on the offensive side of the ball for
26:42
them. And defense was probably worse.
26:44
So. All I do is run.
26:46
It's like, yeah. I mean, there's just nothing.
26:48
There's nothing going on in the team right now.
26:49
It's going to take a couple years.
26:51
I. 1977 all over again. We're just going.
26:53
To run out. You got it.
26:56
Yeah, if if you were at the UCF game and you played a drinking
27:00
game where you did a shot every time the PA announcer said the
27:03
word keeper. You would.
27:05
Have been dead. You wouldn't have made it to
27:06
halftime. You would have.
27:07
This show would have been cancelled.
27:09
We were telling you, you would have found.
27:10
I mean, West Virginia right now has got 3 plays in their
27:13
playbook. Keep her up the middle, keep her
27:15
left, keep her right and. That's it.
27:17
You know, but I did, I did mention to Pete, keep an eye on
27:20
the on, you know, we're down to 1 portal window now, like in mid
27:24
January. Keep an eye on what Rich Rod
27:26
brings in because I'm telling you right now, if he gets
27:29
himself a nice portal haul, whatever West Virginia's win
27:32
total is bet over because I'm, I'm not as big a Rich Rod fan as
27:37
Pete is, but I do know he will win wherever he goes.
27:40
So if he has a nice portal hall and that win totals like 4 1/2,
27:45
I'm telling you my first future bet for 2026, I'm going over.
27:50
He'll, he'll get. Yeah, he'll get some people in
27:52
there. He will.
27:53
But not. But not this year.
27:57
All right, Well, Michigan. Michigan State first rivalry
28:03
game. That's going to be at 7:30.
28:06
Well, Michigan won the last, what, the last three games, 7435
28:11
and five overall. Not much of A rivalry doesn't
28:14
look like. But Michigan 3 and 4, they're
28:17
both three and four against the spread this year, for whatever
28:18
that's worth. And who has this one?
28:22
Oh, that's mine. Big surprise.
28:24
Yeah, big shocker there. So I mean, I'll, I'll be the
28:27
first to argue that the Big 10 is better when Michigan State is
28:30
good, because then it's rivalry means something.
28:32
It is a rivalry. But I mean, Michigan State has
28:35
not been good. It doesn't matter who they're
28:37
playing now. They're getting better.
28:38
They're improving as we predicted they would last year.
28:40
So they're starting to move the right direction.
28:42
Not enough to beat Michigan here.
28:44
I mean, not that Michigan looks that great, but Michigan State
28:46
still doesn't look that good. So yeah, of course, I'll.
28:49
I'll be watching it that the total is 46 and A and a half.
28:55
Yeah. I mean, Michigan is beating
28:56
people. They're not scoring a ton.
28:58
I don't love the Michigan offense.
28:59
I actually saw some articles this week that I've been saying
29:02
Sharon Mork should be on the hot seat.
29:03
And I think he very well might be in the hot seat soon, winning
29:07
or not. He should because the team
29:08
doesn't look good. That said, you know, it's a it's
29:11
a night game. It should be fun with these two
29:14
playing each other. So the rival, the rivalry will
29:16
be alive. You know, the fans are going to
29:18
go nuts. It's going to be interesting.
29:21
You know, unless Michigan start, I mean, if they stub their toe
29:24
and don't go in and win this game, just period.
29:26
Forget that, forget the points money line.
29:28
If they don't win this game, he should be fired on Monday.
29:30
That said, I don't expect, I don't expect that to happen, but
29:34
I do expect a low scoring game and especially 30 degrees, 35°.
29:39
It's not that great at Michigan at the moment.
29:40
It's going to be a little windy and it's just not going to be
29:42
great conditions. They're going to run the ball
29:44
the the numbers going to be suppressed.
29:46
So I really love the under here 46 1/2.
29:51
Did this line really open 8 1/2? Because it's 14 1/2 right now.
29:56
And if you're getting 14 1/2, I don't think I'm crazy to to lean
30:00
Michigan State here just because I mean, that hook in a game with
30:05
a somewhat low total is always enticing.
30:08
I mean, like Pete said, big rivalry game, night game.
30:12
You know, I mean, this is a game where I think Underwood's got to
30:16
like, you know, tell, tell the rest of the Big 10 in the
30:19
country that, all right, you know what, I've arrived.
30:21
And this is certainly the defense to do it against because
30:24
Michigan State is terrible on the defensive side of the ball.
30:29
But at the same time, taking that 14 1/2, I'm scared to trust
30:32
Dayton Childs to do anything against his Michigan defense.
30:35
I mean, it's not the Michigan defense of old, but it's still
30:38
hell of a lot better than what the Spartans are putting out
30:39
there. If I had a lean on the side just
30:44
because of the hook, I would probably go Michigan State, but
30:48
I would not feel good about it. Something tells me this is an
30:51
Underwood special. I I think he balls out here.
30:55
Yeah, I don't see that. I I mean, I like the points.
30:56
I would definitely take the points.
30:57
Historically, this game has been low scoring and close most of
31:00
the time. Occasionally something weird
31:02
happens, but for the most part it's low scoring and close.
31:04
So I'm kind of leaning into history here as well, just
31:06
because Michigan State may not be good, but they're going to
31:08
come out fired up as this is like their season, you know,
31:12
just like when we play Ohio State.
31:13
So they're going to play well in the first half.
31:14
Now they get blown out of the water in the second-half.
31:16
I don't know, but it should be close at least through the first
31:18
half. OK, well we're cruising along
31:21
this week. We're going to our last game
31:23
here. We've got Wisconsin at Oregon.
31:27
Well, Oregon leads the series four to three.
31:29
They lost first three, won the last four and big surprise.
31:33
Hey guys, it's going to rain in Oregon this weekend.
31:36
No. Go serious.
31:38
Hey, get that Almanac out. It's crazy.
31:42
So yeah, we got Wisconsin at Oregon.
31:45
Oregon five and two against this parade.
31:46
Wisconsin two and five. That's most people can probably
31:49
have guessed something that similar.
31:52
What you think of Pete? Totals 44 1/2.
31:55
I don't trust Oregon. I don't trust Washington to
31:57
travel out there and do much of anything at all.
31:59
I'll be shocked if they actually get off the plane, to be honest
32:03
with you. So I don't think Wisconsin's
32:04
going to score much of anything. Oregon hasn't been overly
32:08
impressive to me either. They've been good, but they
32:10
haven't. They've had a few kind of wet
32:11
downs at times here this year. So, yeah, I mean, 44 1/2, I
32:15
think it's a really strong under that here.
32:18
Heck, I mean, it's possible that Oregon come out and score 40
32:21
points at home. Wisconsin may score 3.
32:23
This will still go under, right? So I think that's fine.
32:26
That rain is going to suppress Oregon's ability to fling the
32:29
ball around a bit, and I think it will rain.
32:32
So, yeah, I mean, to me, this is, I don't care what Oregon
32:35
does. They're going to score some
32:35
points. Wisconsin's going to do
32:37
absolutely nothing and so unless Oregon goes ape shit, which in
32:41
the rain they probably can't go that ape shit.
32:44
I think this is a pretty strong under.
32:45
So that's that's my play here. Not bad.
32:50
I I would lean, I would just initially I would think Oregon
32:53
could score that by themselves. But yeah, I guess with the rain
32:56
and they haven't been too explosive.
32:58
It's not like it's Indiana or anything.
32:59
So we'll see what happens with that one.
33:02
What are you thinking, Darren? I honestly, guys, I had nothing
33:06
on this game. I mean, we, we also saw
33:07
Wisconsin Saturday night. We were out eating.
33:09
I mean, God, they haven't scored.
33:12
I mean, now, yeah, they've played Ohio State in Iowa their
33:14
last two games, two really, really good defenses.
33:17
But I mean, 0 points in two home games, come on, man.
33:21
And now you're flying 2/3 of the way across the country to take
33:25
on a team that's, you know, that's looks pretty legit, you
33:30
know, should certainly be a playoff team and maybe win a
33:32
playoff game or two. But my gosh, by the way,
33:35
coacheshotseat.com was chatting with Mark the other day.
33:38
He says Fickle's not getting fired till the end of the year
33:41
at the soonest, which I do not understand.
33:44
Maybe it's a buyout thing. I have no idea.
33:46
But if you can pay 50 million to get rid of James Franklin, I
33:48
don't even know why the buyouts matter anymore.
33:51
But yeah, when the spread's 34 and the total's 44, that, yeah,
33:56
it's a lot. It's just I I just kind of stay
34:00
away from those myself. Probably won't even watch too
34:05
much of this one to be honest with you.
34:09
Well, should we move along to the RPO segment?
34:15
There we go. Start us off, Darren.
34:19
All miss getting 5 1/2 at Oklahoma.
34:27
I've got some thoughts of one of you guys, one of you 2 want to
34:30
go first. I just want to bring up a a
34:32
point and I'll save. My again Lane Kiffin, I am not
34:36
involved out. Total total on this one is 54
34:41
1/2. I I consider the under here
34:44
because because I think they have two good fronts on both
34:46
sides. So it'll be interesting, but
34:47
honestly I I couldn't touch it. We talked last week about how
34:53
Matt Rule is being floated around for the Penn State job
34:55
and how they may be unprepared. You know, they were a 7 1/2
34:58
point favorite at Minnesota last week.
35:01
They didn't cover. They didn't win.
35:02
They didn't even get an offensive touchdown.
35:05
Now all of a sudden, neighbor gets fired.
35:07
Who do the boosters want to run? Florida Lane Kiffin, good luck.
35:12
Throw in how? Throw in how they lost at
35:14
Georgia game last week up by 9 and gave up 17 in the fourth
35:17
quarter. Matir's has got another week to
35:21
heal up his hand. I I would take the Sooners here.
35:27
No hard pass. Easiest one for me to hold it
35:31
all. Right next South Florida laying
35:35
4 1/2 at Memphis, a very important battle conference
35:39
wise. Any thoughts here?
35:42
I would run and bet South Florida.
35:45
I think they they're, yeah, the South Florida Memphis hasn't
35:48
been overly impressive, to say the least.
35:52
I don't think so. Agreed.
35:55
Yeah, that makes sense. I like that.
35:56
The total on this, it was 63 1/2.
35:58
It's pretty high. Got got would say go under an X.
36:02
It's a big number, but who the heck knows with these two teams.
36:04
So I just stayed away from it. Bama laying 11 1/2 at South
36:08
Carolina. Pete.
36:12
Yeah, I, I think the number was on 47 1/2 on this thing.
36:16
And I, I thought the under just because South Carolina is hot
36:20
garbage and I don't, and I don't think Bama's going to come out
36:23
and score, you know, 45 points themselves probably.
36:26
But I wasn't very sure of that. So I just tried to stay away
36:30
from it. But yeah, I think, I think Bama
36:32
from the points perspective, I would lay those points with Bama
36:34
all day, Deb. I'm going to run the Bama.
36:40
I think Bama is just going to roll them go.
36:43
Ahead easy, yeah. I mean, every week I just
36:46
question how the hell did this team lose to Florida State?
36:49
I mean, it's just yeah, I know everybody's got one ass game.
36:54
Maybe Bama just got theirs all the way early.
36:56
But yeah, I don't know the way they're playing how you know
36:59
this is this is almost like a bye week when you look at their
37:01
their last four games. I mean, I yeah, I don't know why
37:04
you wouldn't lay it here with the South Carolina, Illinois,
37:08
traveling across the country, getting 4 points, going to Tim's
37:11
favorite Big 10 location, Washington, to play the Huskies.
37:13
Tim, what do you think? Well, I already know Tim.
37:15
What you think to tell us anyway?
37:17
Run Washington, bet them. Yep, easy analysis right there.
37:24
Pete, Big 10 guy, what do you? What say you?
37:27
Yeah, a total of 55 1/2. I think this is going to be a
37:29
sneaky good game. I I really think this is going
37:31
to be a close game that will be pretty high, high and high.
37:36
I think it could be quite interesting if the weather is
37:38
OK, which I didn't look to see what it was going to be there.
37:41
Probably rain, I don't know since it's going to be raining
37:44
stayed over. But yeah, could be.
37:46
I want this is the game I want to watch, but I didn't like that
37:49
number, so I didn't touch it. What'd you say that total was?
37:53
I had 55 1/2. Yeah, I would lean over there.
37:57
I would lean over. There for sure.
37:58
Yeah, I think it's going to be fun. 4138 some along those
38:03
lines. Absolutely, if the weather's
38:04
good, if it's not pouring or something for.
38:07
Sure. All right.
38:08
Another one of Tim's favorite teams, A&M laying 2 1/2 at LSU.
38:15
Oh, poor LSU. Pete, we'll let you go first
38:18
because I'm sure Tim has some nice things to say about A&M.
38:22
I'll probably say the same thing here.
38:23
He's going to say which I take an A&M and lay those points all
38:26
day. LS U's offense has not looked
38:28
like I expected LS U's offense to do well.
38:30
I still think has the best quarterback, at least pro ready
38:34
quarterback, but the rest of their offense is it's not
38:37
clicking, it's not working. They're missing some tools
38:39
there. So I would lay that 2 1/2 all
38:41
day. I'm leaning that way, but I just
38:45
think the college football gods don't want me to have nice
38:47
things. So I would probably bet LSU here
38:50
just because of that. I I can just see them pulling
38:53
together for one night and totally ruining my A&M euphoria
38:57
here for their great season. So hearts, hearts is A&M, the
39:02
brain and the guts telling me LSU on this one, actually.
39:05
That's that's all that's fair. I mean, LSU at night, Brian
39:09
Kelly usually doesn't lose these type of games.
39:11
But I know man, I'm going to say that A&M's defensive effort last
39:18
week, if you want to call it that was, was maybe their their
39:22
ass game. Hopefully they get it back.
39:26
If they get out of this game with a win, lookout here now.
39:29
Now they're in the driver's seat for for a championship game and
39:33
all that and that. That yeah, 'cause that don't
39:36
they end against Texas again? I mean, jeez, if they play Texas
39:39
at the end of the season again, that shouldn't even be Tex A&M
39:41
should be favored by 6 1/2 already.
39:44
Speaking of the Penn State's owned Matt Rule, he is at home.
39:48
He is late. 7 1/2 to this smokin hot Northwestern Wildcats.
39:53
Just from a number play. I would take Northwestern.
39:55
I can't trust Nebraska, but Tim, what do you think?
39:59
I'm going to actually trust Nebraska.
40:01
If I was going to run to this one, I I would take Nebraska.
40:05
Give the points. Yeah, totals 43 1/2.
40:09
I'm just going to go back to the Terence that earlier.
40:11
I don't know where Nebraska's head is right now.
40:13
I mean, they're their coach is probably out the door here and I
40:16
I don't, I don't know if he's just there, they don't they're
40:18
not want to play anymore or whatever.
40:20
I I wouldn't touch this thing. So I have no idea what
40:22
Nebraska's going to do. If I was forced to do something
40:24
here, I would probably take Northwestern the points, but I'm
40:27
not doing anything. Another huge rivalry game,
40:30
Kansas hosting Kansas State. Kansas State getting 3 1/2.
40:35
Pete, what do you think about this one?
40:37
Should be fun. So totals 56 1/2.
40:41
I was leaning over. I obviously didn't play it, but
40:43
I thought about it because I think it could be a very fun
40:47
kind of shootout game. Perhaps we'll see how that plays
40:50
itself out. But yeah, that's where I would
40:52
be leaning. But yeah, I didn't play it here.
40:55
Tim, thoughts? Pass Hard pass on this one.
40:59
I haven't seen enough of either of these those two teams this
41:01
year to even play. Yeah, I mean, I was impressed
41:04
with Candace early on, but some of their defensive losses have
41:07
have started to show up here in the last few weeks.
41:10
Kansas State, Dylan Edwards, man, congratulations.
41:12
You're the you're the new Cam Rising of college football.
41:15
We never know from week to week what the hell you're doing.
41:16
So unless you know Dylan Edwards and you know whether he's
41:20
playing or not, I would just avoid this game altogether.
41:24
Tim, I didn't put this one in here as a dig or anything.
41:27
I just thought our thoughts on how Miami would respond was the
41:31
only reason I put this one in here.
41:33
They are at home. They are laying 30 1/2.
41:38
Run to the window, lay that 30 1/2 all day long.
41:43
They are going to destroy. Stanford should stay home.
41:48
Because it is not going to be pretty.
41:50
From the sickening of the bus to the minute they leave that
41:53
field, they are going to get absolutely firebombed by a
41:56
pissed off Miami. If it was any other team, I
41:58
would have bet that game. But I, you know, I hate Miami,
42:00
so I don't know. But they're going.
42:02
To They could win by 60. They might score 60.
42:04
I was going to say, I was thinking like 56 to 14 or
42:07
something. This just screams, yeah, Miami's
42:12
got to be mad. But yeah, anyway, all right.
42:17
And the last one, Arizona's top receiver are going to miss this
42:21
game. A little hammy injury, I
42:22
believe, but they are still currently laying 7 to Houston.
42:27
Nice Big 12 match up here. Where do you guys think?
42:29
Tim, we'll start with you. My first thought was Arizona
42:32
State. I like them, but my initial
42:35
after my afterthought is just passing us all together.
42:39
I'm not liking it. Yeah, total.
42:43
Is 46 1/2. I thought about going over on
42:46
this at a slight lean on it and I decided I just does not very
42:49
comfortable with with all of it so I just stepped away.
42:52
So yeah, I did nothing here. Yeah, yeah.
42:56
Losing that receiver, I think it's going to hurt Arizona State
43:00
and Houston. I watched him September when I
43:03
was in Florida. You know, they took down
43:05
Colorado, but that's not really saying a whole heck of a lot.
43:07
But yeah, whenever a key injury happens, you don't know how
43:11
that's going to affect the team. So I I just, I would pass on
43:14
this one as well. All right.
43:19
Well, let's recap what we got, Pete.
43:22
And look at that beautiful record, 15 and 17.
43:25
I'm, I'm cruising here -3 1/2 units.
43:27
That's great. All right, so Michigan, Michigan
43:30
State under 48 1/2. As I said, historically, even if
43:34
Michigan State's not any good, they come out like fire and play
43:36
well against the team. So I expect to be suppressed in
43:39
terms of scoring. Texas, Mississippi State under
43:41
44 1/2. I have absolutely 0 faith in
43:44
Texas and their offense right now and Wisconsin.
43:47
Oregon under 44 1/2 sandwich Wisconsin.
43:49
They said they didn't score twice at home.
43:52
I don't know how they're traveling to Oregon and scoring
43:55
anything so. So those are my 3 for this week.
43:58
All right, I got Western Kentucky Louisiana Tech over
44:00
that one already hit so gave me. I also I'm playing 2 units on
44:05
Arkansas money line over Auburn. I have Virginia -10 1/2 over
44:10
North Carolina and TCU versus West Virginia over 55 and a
44:16
half. Darren.
44:17
And I'm already owing one this week.
44:19
Shout out to the Delaware head coach who got a win and cashes
44:22
Middle Tennessee State plus 8 1/2 ticket, which he obviously
44:25
had. If you saw some of that play
44:26
calling. Also, Iowa State, little fade of
44:29
BYU here after their big game against Utah.
44:32
Lane 2 1/2, Bandy, the year of the Pabia Mafia, Baby Lay the 2
44:36
1/2 over Missouri, and again, no faith in Texas to score points
44:40
here. As long as that stays at 7,
44:42
which is what I got, I will take Mississippi State fighting
44:45
cowbells with seven points over Texas.
44:49
All right, all right, Well, I'll wrap it up for us.
44:51
Thank you all for listening. Don't forget to please like and
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44:56
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Please like leave a review, leave a comment, let us know
45:02
what you're betting on. Will be will be happy to hear
45:04
from you. This has been targeting winners
45:07
week 9. Thank you all for listening.