Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / Bombs Away | Grain Talk March 5th, 2026

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Bombs Away | Grain Talk March 5th, 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: You're locked in to the Grain Market Talk Podcast.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Fast updates, market movers, and the grain news you need right now.
• 0:12
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: Today is March 5th.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Jayden here with us.
• 0:24
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to talk about the grain markets.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: This has been a pretty exciting week for us.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_01: A lot of what Jaden and I do is managing marketing risk for row crop producers across the U.S.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: So the recent volatility in these grain markets has been a superb opportunity for us to interact with uh row crop farmers on getting some of those first sales on, for example, for new crop hedges.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: So it's been an exciting week here.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: So, Jaden, thanks for coming on the show today.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: Thanks for me having me on, Mike.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_01: Well, let's talk about a little bit about the corn and soybean futures here trade over the past week.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_01: Just I want to talk about relative to where we've been, what levels we're at.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: If you pull up a futures chart on corn, for example, for December new crop, we have made our march into the high 470s, which uh at this level a very similar spot to where we were last year when we peaked out in this corn market for December on February 20th.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, so very similar spot there relative to both time and price over the past few years.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_01: We've struggled as we got this corn market into this area around 470 and 480.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: It seems like that's been about where we've petered out on a lot of these rallies for both this contract and prior contracts.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of interest around this area, Jaden.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: It makes sense profitability-wise for a lot of folks.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: It's right time of the year to maybe start thinking about it.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_01: And it's relative to history a pretty good spot as well.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_01: So a lot of folks have been entertaining the idea of looking at this for new crop.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh talk to me about what you've been seeing out of the chart action here over the past volatile, crazy week that we've seen.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Mike, uh, I think the story of this week is money flow.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_02: So it seems like when when crude oil is turning higher, the the corn market wants to follow.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's a story to write write home about today.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_02: So we saw some massive amount of volume in the corn market today.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_02: We're at 22-month highs.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_02: So for a roll crop producer for you know hedging their corn for next year, I think it makes a lot of sense to take some risk off the table, whether using options or futures.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, when I look at this uh reaction from the row crop uh futures to this war in Iran, uh, it seemed like the soybean market reacted first and foremost.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: It was pretty aggressive right away.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_01: Soybean oil has been on an impressive, impressive rally here for quite some time since the start of the year on January 1st.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: So that rally we've seen after the 45Z credits have kicked on, that's been impressive.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_01: And now crude oil's been running higher.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_01: That's been pushing soybean oil up because of renewable diesel, for example.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_01: That was the first to really move.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: Now corn seems like today was a first main day.
• 3:01
  SPEAKER_01: I felt like we saw pretty strong money flow into that in the wheat market, Jaden.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_02: And also, I think another thing to note is we already do hold a very large long position in the soybean market.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_02: So the funds are already pretty extended as we are.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_02: Um, as of last Friday, we were about 180,000 long.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_02: So, and our records are on 250,000.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_02: So I don't know how much how much more of the funds can really push this soybean market.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_02: So they're probably pushing their money more towards the wheat and corn market this week.
• 3:29
  SPEAKER_01: On the commitment of traders, Cade there, if you pull that up, you can see on the corn side, for example, uh, when I look at that, I am not seeing a whole lot of major positioning.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_01: When I view the commitment of traders, I'm looking at uh corn at a pretty neutral position.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: So from that perspective, I don't see uh a whole lot of buying coming on major money until probably today, on major managed money flow, where like soybeans, for example, you said we pretty much ran out of steam.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_01: So some pretty good opportunity if the corn side wanted to take it.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_01: But one of the reasons, and one of the things that I think really pushing this, whether it be corn, soybeans, cattle, equities, crude oil, I think we're worth mentioning is one, they're all trading very similar day to day based on the information we're getting from the Iran war situation.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_01: That being the fact that I don't think they're trading many fundamentals outside of what's going on with this news that we're getting day to day out of the Iran situation.
• 4:28
  SPEAKER_01: So one, I just want to go back in time, kind of show you where we've been sitting at versus uh history out of this war situation in Iran.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think it goes back to the most recent thing, which would be last June of 2025.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_01: I'll have Cade pull up a chart, which is corn price versus um versus crude oil price, for example, just to show the recent correlation we've had as they've come together here really recently.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, one of the things is when I look at June of last year, the U.S.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_01: and Israel, they started bombing the Iran nuclear sites, and uh they were claiming that they obliterated the program through that time frame there, about June 13th uh on through the 24th.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_01: One, we saw cattle take pretty major pullback through that time frame.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_01: For example, crude oil spiked up quick, but was only about 10 days before the ceasefire, so it pulled right back.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, that's something worth mentioning, I think, just for going back.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_01: Some of the most recent time frames, if you wanted to look at the impact this has had, uh, that's a good time to look at.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_01: Real recently, here, February, we launched Operation Epic Fury.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, the US and Israel, they launched massive strikes, uh, causing huge casualties, including senior officials following failed nuclear negotiations.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_01: Jaden, basically, we've been negotiating on nuclear deals and concessions with them for years, and it's just time uh they felt to uh to make a step to take this uh to uh uh to a new to a new level here, anyways, and and force a regime change.
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_01: One of the things we've noticed with regime changes over the years is that they take time, they take boots on the ground, it's not something quick.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_01: I I would like to think Trump wants this war to be over somewhat quick because of the appreciation we've had in crude oil prices, gas, and and diesel, for example.
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we've seen uh fuel prices skyrocket here recently, and that's not in Trump's best interest, right?
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_01: He he's proven to us time and time again he likes cheap energy.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_01: Um seems like he tried to plan for that a little bit by taking over Venezuela, for example.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_01: That was uh right ahead of this just a couple months, so that makes sense from that perspective.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_01: We've taken a lot of the red tape off in the United States, for example.
• 6:40
  SPEAKER_01: We produced 22% of the world's oil production, for example, in the United States here, the highest out of anybody.
• 6:47
  SPEAKER_01: So when I look at what steps he's taken to prepare for for this invasion, he's put a few things in in line to prepare for it.
• 6:55
  SPEAKER_01: But overall, the impact this has had, I think, commodity-wise, is incredible.
• 7:00
  SPEAKER_01: I think it's uh it's triggered heavy commodity buying, particularly in oil and gas, uh, and due to the immediate fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the global oil flow, actually.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_01: So investors and industries, they they bought to hedge against rising inflation on these commodities and any potential infrastructure shutdowns and just safe haven assets, basically, lately, Jaden.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_01: And I think that's important in especially the agricultural world because crude oil and corn and soybeans are tied together based on ethanol and renewable diesel now, especially in biofuels.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_01: So those two have been very reactive to this.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: Cattle, obviously, from they hold a massive long position and manage money.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_01: Are they gonna take some risk off uh at any point here?
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's a potential concern.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_01: The equities with the stock market, are they gonna take any uh anything off the market for that as well?
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_01: And then there's the other player in this, which would be China.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: At this point, it looks like China gets about 15% of our oil from Iran.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_01: 38% of the oil that goes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China.
• 8:07
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, 5% of their oil imports come from Venezuela as well.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: And we've just pretty much completely shut off those valves for China.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: So the grain markets had to try to figure this out of sure, it's pretty bullish and we want to buy it because of the energy side of things.
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: But are we worried about China saying, hey guys, this is pretty big lever that you're pulling here on us.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_01: This doesn't make us very happy.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Do we have to be worried about us not selling soybeans to China?
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_02: And and to also add on that, Trump's supposed to meet with China here at the end of the month, so that that might add some conflict there as well.
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_01: So far, most of what China said, which isn't much, which is surprising, and or what they have said, hasn't seemed to be much of a mover and a shaker in the markets.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: I feel like when this first happened, Monday was a pretty good way to look at it because Monday was pretty big down day in the soybean market, and it was having a really hard time to like, okay, China's gonna have to say something here soon that could maybe trouble the stock, uh trouble the soybean market going forward.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: So I thought that was I thought that was a little bit scary at the beginning of the week, but the soybean market has handled this very well, and China hasn't really said much about the soybean side of things.
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: So I I think those are a few things really worth mentioning when it comes to the influence that this Iran war has had on these, on these uh prices and the especially in the the grain side.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_01: But I also want to mention the implication this this could have to acres, Jaden.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh last week or so, uh we uh a couple of weeks ago, we got uh our first indication of a of a new crop balance sheet from the uh USDA.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_01: The Feb Outlook report showed 94 million acres of corn.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_01: At that point, it sh it seemed a little low to us.
• 9:47
  SPEAKER_01: I I thought we all believed it was 95 or higher pretty easily.
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_01: This might change things.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_01: If you're looking at a fast planting pace because the 41% of the U.S.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_01: corn production is in a drought today and we get off to a fast planting pace, let's say I want to plant some more corn acres because I wrapped up quickly.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: Now it's gonna be a little bit tougher to do that because fertilizer prices, a lot of folks have completely pulled their bids off the markets because of this, and a lot of the fertilizer coming from that Black Sea region, Jaden.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_01: And this is gonna make those extra additional acres come a lot harder on the corn side.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe 94 million acres does look a little bit more reasonable now than what we were thinking, Jaden.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: Right, Mike.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_02: I think you hit the nail on the head there.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_02: Just looking at online here, roughly 30 to 35 percent of the world's fertilizer trade uh transit to the street of our mew.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_02: So that's that could be a pretty big deal for thinking about adding more corn acres next year, especially if you don't have your fertilizer booked already.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_01: Very much so.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_01: All right, any other final thoughts on this podcast here for this week, Jaden?
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think it'll just be interesting to see tomorrow's trade go going into a Friday and going into a two day weekend where are we gonna see some type of risk off trade where where we basically do the opposite of today, sell oil and buy in the equities.
• 11:04
  SPEAKER_02: It'll be interesting to see what we kind of see tomorrow to set the stage for next week.
• 11:08
  SPEAKER_01: That it will be.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_01: All right.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_01: Thank you for your time today.
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_02: I appreciate it.