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Episode 163 - 11/14/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to Episode 1. 63 of the all.
• 0:24
  Systems Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh. Applebaum What's going on,
• 0:35
  everyone? Happy Thirsty Thursday we have.
• 0:38
  NFL returning tonight guys big Thursday Night Football
• 0:41
  showdown. Between the commanders and the.
• 0:44
  Eagles or the Eagles? If you're.
• 0:46
  From the Philly area. Which I'm not, but I learned.
• 0:48
  From watching Silver Linings Playbook as the Eagles fans are
• 0:52
  some of the most rabid fans that I've ever encountered.
• 0:54
  True story when I first moved to.
• 0:56
  Boston. Right after graduating college,
• 0:58
  I was 21 years old. My first job was.
• 1:00
  Working at Jerry Remy Sports. Bar and Grill and we had, you
• 1:04
  know. I was a server.
• 1:06
  You know, bartender, all the different jobs there in
• 1:08
  hospitality world, if you know, you know.
• 1:10
  But every time, it was right next to Fenway Park.
• 1:13
  Every time. A visiting team would come in.
• 1:15
  You'd kind of get a feel for, you know, the people.
• 1:17
  From that city, all everyone. Was pretty much nice except the
• 1:21
  people from Philly, they're so insane.
• 1:23
  They trashed the bathrooms. They made a huge mess.
• 1:26
  They they drank heavily. So maybe that's something that
• 1:28
  you are proud of. Maybe it's something that.
• 1:31
  I don't know Philly fans got to work on, but that's when I
• 1:33
  first. Realized that Philly fans.
• 1:34
  Are kind of crazy. Almost like Boston fans like
• 1:36
  myself. Anyway, Washington Commanders.
• 1:39
  Philelph Eagles. Tonight, I have a reason.
• 1:42
  Why you should be careful? With the spread I do have a play
• 1:45
  on the total. And I do have a bet here.
• 1:47
  On a supplementary. Player hopefully going.
• 1:49
  Over their their yardage total here tonight so a play on the.
• 1:54
  Total Be careful, tread lightly. On the side and then a player
• 1:58
  prop as well and then. For college basketball today,
• 2:00
  guys. I'm going to look at a bit of
• 2:02
  an. Experiment I'm going to get.
• 2:04
  To obviously last night, which was.
• 2:06
  Not not a good night. But it got me thinking about
• 2:08
  something and I think. Sometimes in sports betting.
• 2:10
  You know. You stick to your philosophy.
• 2:12
  Like for us on the pod, it's. Data-driven, sharp contrarian
• 2:14
  betting. But then.
• 2:15
  Also, you kind of pick. Up on maybe some experiments or
• 2:19
  things that. Catch your eye or.
• 2:20
  Trying to just find. Value wherever it may be.
• 2:23
  And maybe it's not always. In the position that you're
• 2:25
  looking at initially, so I do. Have a bit of an.
• 2:27
  Experiment with some totals in college.
• 2:29
  Basketball tonight I got. 3 totals for you, so A5 pack
• 2:32
  overall. Two in the NFL for Thursday
• 2:35
  night. Football 3 College basketball
• 2:37
  five overall. You guys know?
• 2:38
  The drill can we get 3 of? These tonight, that's the.
• 2:40
  Goal to eke out a winning night. Now unfortunately, looking back
• 2:45
  to our last night, guys haven't gotten our.
• 2:47
  Our butts whooped like that. In quite a while.
• 2:49
  One in six. Pathetic.
• 2:51
  Embarrassing, disgusting -5 point.
• 2:53
  One units, sometimes there's going to be nights.
• 2:55
  Where nothing. Goes your way.
• 2:56
  The only winner was the Lakers over.
• 2:58
  That sailed over. Last game of the night What was
• 3:01
  really frustrating about last night is that.
• 3:03
  If you made me. Play these bets.
• 3:04
  Again, I probably would play them all again.
• 3:06
  Look at the two bets, or two of the three.
• 3:08
  We lost in college football. Dartmouth money line them when
• 3:11
  they were -3 1/2. They closed -4 1/2.
• 3:14
  We beat the closing line by a full point.
• 3:16
  We read the market correctly. Dartmouth loses Wofford.
• 3:19
  Wofford. I still can't pronounce your
• 3:21
  name correctly. Money line them at 3 1/2.
• 3:23
  They closed at minus. Five so.
• 3:25
  After we bet these. Game guys, games.
• 3:28
  The line moved in our favor. Again closing line value.
• 3:30
  Wofford. Loses.
• 3:32
  Southern lost by two. To the worst team in college
• 3:34
  basketball, which was pathetic. Capitals in the NHL.
• 3:37
  Had a three to one lead late. Into the third they.
• 3:40
  Blow it. And lose in overtime.
• 3:41
  That was disgusting. Canes lose on the road.
• 3:44
  That was not fun. And then Eastern Michigan, Ohio.
• 3:46
  Over 51 and a. Half made it.
• 3:49
  Made it interesting late. End up coming. 7 yards or seven
• 3:52
  points short, but it didn't help us that in the.
• 3:54
  First quarter there was 0. Scoring So last night's one of
• 3:57
  those nights guys where sports betting.
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  Humbles you. And I think.
• 4:01
  When I was. New into sports betting, You
• 4:03
  know, I was, you know, brand. New and, you know, wet.
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  Behind the ears, whatever. You want to call it if I had a
• 4:08
  one in six night? I would do 2.
• 4:10
  I would do one of two. Things I would either say.
• 4:12
  F this I can't believe. That I went one in six and none
• 4:15
  of these games. Went my way so I'm not playing
• 4:18
  tonight. It's just out of.
• 4:18
  Spite. I need a day.
• 4:19
  Off. I'm not playing it.
• 4:20
  Or the younger me. Would say F this.
• 4:23
  I'm betting 10 games tonight. And I'm getting it.
• 4:25
  All back because screw you. I deserve a winning.
• 4:27
  Night tonight. I think both of those.
• 4:29
  Are bad strategies. Obviously you learn the hard way
• 4:32
  and it's very difficult. But one in six days happen, 6
• 4:36
  and one days happen. Again, we're beating closing.
• 4:39
  Lines and just not getting the brakes here.
• 4:40
  So again, that's kind of the most frustrating part in sports
• 4:43
  betting. Like in a way.
• 4:45
  I'd rather you know. Maybe see the line go.
• 4:47
  Against me and lose. And just be like, OK.
• 4:49
  I was on the wrong side, it kind of.
• 4:50
  Hurts even worse. It's like.
• 4:51
  Salt in the wounds when you when you beat the closing line and
• 4:53
  get the team still doesn't. Come through for you, but.
• 4:56
  As frustrating as it may. Be.
• 4:58
  Flat betting. Betting Tris, not betting to
• 5:00
  win, grinding, not getting too high, not getting too low.
• 5:04
  When you're when you're running. Hot You're never as good as you
• 5:05
  think. When you go 1.
• 5:07
  And six. You're never as bad as you
• 5:08
  think, but sports betting always can.
• 5:10
  Humble you and just when you think.
• 5:12
  You got it all figured out, sports betting says.
• 5:16
  This is a really tough game that we're playing so.
• 5:19
  I know it was a rough night for me.
• 5:20
  Maybe it was for you, but either way doesn't change our approach.
• 5:23
  Today we're going to see if we can get back to our winning
• 5:26
  ways. So let's let's put it behind us.
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  And I always think of when I have a bad night.
• 5:30
  Some you win, some you. Lose some, you throw away.
• 5:32
  So last night, throw it away. But anyway, guys, let's get back
• 5:36
  at it today. I think the beauty of sports
• 5:37
  betting is. I mentioned this too.
• 5:39
  You go one and six, it's a challenge the next.
• 5:41
  Day to get up. With a positive attitude.
• 5:44
  Stick to the model. Stick to the.
• 5:45
  Blueprint and get back in the green.
• 5:47
  When you go 6:00 and 1:00. It's the sun rises.
• 5:50
  Once again and the. Challenge is to try to.
• 5:52
  Produce another winning day. So the beauty of sports.
• 5:53
  Betting is. As good or as bad?
• 5:56
  Like last night. As your night may have been.
• 5:58
  You always get another. Chance to wake up and get right
• 6:00
  back to it and hopefully eke out a winning.
• 6:02
  Day. So that being said.
• 6:04
  Let's start off with some. NFL because we have a big
• 6:07
  Thursday Night Football. Showdown Washington Commanders
• 6:09
  and the. Philadelphia Eagles.
• 6:11
  Now we probably thought the. Eagles would be this good.
• 6:13
  You know, went to the Super. Bowl a couple years ago.
• 6:15
  They are coming. Into this 1/7.
• 6:17
  And two, probably didn't think the commanders.
• 6:19
  Would be this good? They're seven and three, Jaden.
• 6:21
  Daniels has. Been just incredible to start.
• 6:24
  Well, it's set the stage. I'm going to tell.
• 6:25
  You why I don't want to play the side and why I.
• 6:28
  Am going to play the total. So going to this one, Commanders
• 6:31
  7:00 and 3:00. Just saw their.
• 6:32
  Three-game winning. Streak come to an end.
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  They lost to the Steelers 28 to 27.
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  Lost outright as a 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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  On the other hand, the Eagles seven and two as we.
• 6:41
  Mentioned they've won five. Straight, really starting to get
• 6:43
  it going. Here, they just crushed the
• 6:45
  Cowboys. 34 to 6. Easily covering.
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  As a 7 point Rd. favorite so. What have we seen across the
• 6:50
  market for? This game here Will this game
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  open at? Philly.
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  Minus 3 1/2, so 3 1/2 point home favorite and pretty much.
• 6:57
  All week the line hasn't. Moved.
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  It was. 3 1/2 opener. It stayed 3 1/2.
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  Anytime you see a line that. Really doesn't.
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  Move at all for multiple. Days that kind of tells you.
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  That the odds makers. Are comfortable with their
• 7:08
  position, whatever number they're putting out.
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  There they see no reason. To bring it up or push it.
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  Down because maybe they're getting good two way.
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  Action and they haven't. Really.
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  Maybe seen a? Clear wise guy side so.
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  They're saying hey. Let's not move it.
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  Let's keep it right where it's at, however.
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  It was 3 1/2 eagles all week this morning.
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  I woke up. Started to see the juice creep
• 7:27
  up. By late morning, early
• 7:29
  afternoon. Now we have the Eagles up to
• 7:30
  minus. Four.
• 7:31
  So you're. Waiting on a line move and we
• 7:33
  finally got it. Now Eagles are -3 1/2 up to -4
• 7:37
  now. Why is that notable?
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  Because the public. Split down the middle. 5050
• 7:41
  public doesn't. Know whether to late with the
• 7:42
  Eagles who are. Running hot right now or?
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  How do you not take Jane Daniels, you know, getting 3 1/2
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  four points? Who's?
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  Look great so far. So 5050 bet.
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  Split. However, 63% of dollars are on.
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  Philly. So if you're telling me.
• 7:55
  Based on a market perspective, it kind of looks like Philly
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  Sharp tonight. They went from -3 1/2 up to -4
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  they're only getting. Half the tickets, but nearly two
• 8:04
  out of three dollars. Later in some of these.
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  Thursday Night Football systems. If you look at favorites.
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  Home. Favorites on Thursday Night
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  Football? They're four and two against the
• 8:12
  spread. This year they are 94 and 77
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  against the spread 55%. With a 7% ROI.
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  Since 2006. So a lot of these historical.
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  System matches would say hey, home favorite short week
• 8:24
  Thursday night. That's a good sign for that home
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  favorite. Eagles also are the better.
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  Defense they're giving up around. 18 points a game versus
• 8:32
  22 for the commanders. So from a pure market.
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  Perspective which I try to stay. Glued to eagles look like.
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  They're kind of sharp, you know you.
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  Would have loved to. Have gotten them 3 1/2.
• 8:42
  I've seen a couple people money line the Eagles tonight.
• 8:44
  I mean, I don't. Totally disagree with that, but
• 8:45
  at minus. 200 -, 210. That's a little high for me.
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  We have seen though these. Thursday night.
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  Football favorite? Straight up.
• 8:52
  Are eaten to this year. They are 72.
• 8:55
  Percent with a 5%. ROI over the last what?
• 8:58
  Was it like last? Almost 2006, so big sample size
• 9:02
  there. But A2 10200, that's a little.
• 9:04
  High for me, which I probably. Should have learned my lesson.
• 9:07
  From the Hurricanes last night. But anyway.
• 9:10
  With that being said. Low bets, higher dollars. 5050.
• 9:13
  Line move. Line move to the Eagles Game
• 9:15
  day. Movement as well.
• 9:16
  Game day. That movement moves are really.
• 9:19
  Important to me because. That's when limits are raised
• 9:20
  and big bets come in. With all that being said.
• 9:23
  Though. You do have some.
• 9:24
  Indicators on Washington one. Would be the fact that.
• 9:28
  Road dogs have done well. This year Rd. dogs are. 49 and
• 9:31
  41 against the spread 54%. When you're a dog getting four
• 9:34
  or more, you're 40 and 34. ATS 54%.
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  Washington also is that classic. Divisional dog, so built in.
• 9:42
  Familiarity. Leveling the playing field.
• 9:44
  Benefiting the team, getting points.
• 9:46
  And then also Washington is a. Bit of a buy low, sell high play
• 9:48
  because they are a dog. Coming off a loss who didn't
• 9:51
  cover? Against a.
• 9:53
  Favorite coming off a win in on a win.
• 9:55
  Streak, who just covered. So a lot of the.
• 9:57
  Systems and indicators would say, oh, there's.
• 10:00
  Value on Washington now at +4, but yet the market and the
• 10:03
  percentages in the system matches are on.
• 10:06
  Basically Philly. With that game day line move.
• 10:08
  So anytime I see something like this guys.
• 10:10
  You know I lay off. Again, that's not the.
• 10:13
  Sexy answer, I know we. Want to say oh, take Washington,
• 10:15
  let's go sweat Washington or. Late with Philly and let's.
• 10:17
  Have Philly crush Washington tonight.
• 10:20
  As a data. Driven better.
• 10:21
  I like it when. We have all.
• 10:22
  Indicators on one side and really not.
• 10:25
  Much of anything. On the other side in this case.
• 10:27
  It looks like Philly is the data.
• 10:29
  Play, but Washington's. Got some of those divisional dog
• 10:31
  and system matches. As well.
• 10:33
  So that being said, without. A clear side.
• 10:36
  I'm laying off the side. Because I think you can make.
• 10:38
  Pretty good cases. For both sides, but.
• 10:40
  What I am going to do? Is play this total?
• 10:42
  Now the total. Has been interesting.
• 10:44
  It opened. At 50, the total got.
• 10:46
  All the way down to. 48 and a. Half.
• 10:47
  So it's pretty clear. You had some under money come
• 10:49
  in. Now, over the past 24 hours,
• 10:51
  it's gotten back up. To 49 1/2 so if you look from
• 10:55
  open to current. Basically was 50 down to. 49
• 10:58
  1/2. But it did get.
• 10:59
  All the way down to 48 1/2. So what's notable to me is it
• 11:02
  open at 50. It never got to 5152.
• 11:05
  It's. Only Fallen.
• 11:07
  So. Looking at the under here.
• 11:09
  It's got a pretty good. Bet split the.
• 11:10
  Under or flip it the. Other way the over.
• 11:13
  Is getting 67% of bets. The public's on the over.
• 11:16
  Jayden Daniels putting up points.
• 11:18
  Philly Jalen Hurts, Obviously, let's play the over.
• 11:21
  They're both. Going to be, you know, 25.
• 11:22
  Points or more? But if you look.
• 11:25
  At some of these indicators here.
• 11:26
  One the totals fallen this would be.
• 11:28
  Technically a reverse line move two out of three bets on the.
• 11:32
  Ovary at the total fell. When you look at the.
• 11:34
  Total high totals of. 49 or more.
• 11:38
  The under is 14 and 10 this year 58%.
• 11:40
  It is. 48 and 2566 percent 26. Percent ROI since 2000. 22
• 11:47
  outdoor divisional Unders. You don't have to or you don't
• 11:50
  have a, you know, a Dome. Or closed roof stadium.
• 11:52
  So you're out in the weather and it's a divisional game.
• 11:55
  You know how to. Match up against your opponent
• 11:56
  you play. Them.
• 11:57
  Twice a year, those outdoor divisional unders are 230. 7 and
• 12:00
  197. 55%, 5% ROI. Since 2021.
• 12:06
  Prime time unders with when the total.
• 12:08
  Is high high total. Prime time under of. 47 or more
• 12:11
  the under is 27 and 1564% with a 23.
• 12:15
  Percent ROI. Adrian Hill, the lead ref.
• 12:18
  This isn't a huge. Thing, but it's just little
• 12:20
  cherry on top. He's been under ref historically
• 12:23
  50 and 38 to the under when he's the lead ref 57% and in terms
• 12:27
  of. Weather it's.
• 12:28
  Not going to be. Terrible.
• 12:29
  It's also not going. To be perfect it's going to be
• 12:32
  about mid 40s around 7 mile per hour winds so nothing crazy but
• 12:35
  tiny bit of wind. So you add it.
• 12:37
  All up here guys, unlike the side which.
• 12:39
  Again, I think you can kind of make a.
• 12:41
  Case for both sides. It's pretty clear here that.
• 12:43
  All movement, at least since the open.
• 12:45
  Has been downward so I'm going to play this under shop around I
• 12:49
  was able to get. Under 49 1/2.
• 12:51
  Now what we would love for this total is.
• 12:54
  To. Get the under 49 1/2 and then
• 12:57
  from now until kickoff. We would love to see it fall to
• 12:59
  49. 48 1/2 that'll be a great indication that we are on the
• 13:03
  sharp side. I'll be at all up here, guys.
• 13:05
  I see much more clear. Value on the total.
• 13:08
  Then I do the side. So I'm going under 40.
• 13:11
  Nine and a. Half Washington and Philly next.
• 13:16
  Looking at. A player prop for this game.
• 13:18
  So a couple things I noticed. One you do have.
• 13:21
  Of course, a high total. So we could have some.
• 13:23
  Offense here tonight. But I was.
• 13:25
  Popping open my rhythm. App and I didn't.
• 13:27
  See a ton? On the star players like.
• 13:30
  You know. Hertz, Jaden Daniels running or.
• 13:32
  Passing, I didn't see much. For the star wideouts.
• 13:35
  Maclaurin You know, AJ. Brown, Devonta Smith.
• 13:38
  But I did see some value on Kenneth.
• 13:40
  Gainwell, in particular Kenneth Gainwell.
• 13:42
  'S rushing prop, I bet. Kenneth Gainwell at over 14 1/2
• 13:47
  rushing yards. Now a couple.
• 13:49
  Things I like about this. This prop here. 1st is the fact
• 13:52
  that. Gainwell.
• 13:54
  Is projected to go over. This one, now it's not a huge.
• 13:59
  Projection here he's only. Expected, I think, to get.
• 14:02
  Like 16 from rhythm but. If you kind of look.
• 14:05
  At the the angles in Gainwell's. Favor the first one is that.
• 14:10
  Last last week he had 30. Yards rushing, which again it's
• 14:13
  a one off. It was against the Cowboys.
• 14:15
  But he's gone over this number in.
• 14:16
  Four of his last five. Games.
• 14:18
  And over that time span. He's averaging 27 point. 4
• 14:21
  rushing yards per game. We all know Saquon.
• 14:23
  'S great, Jalen Hurts. Can run the ball, but again,
• 14:27
  Saquon. Was going to need a.
• 14:29
  Blow every now and again. He's going to have to catch his
• 14:31
  breath. Put it put in Kenneth Gainwell.
• 14:33
  He's been in the system and he's.
• 14:34
  Averaging around 5-6 carries per game.
• 14:38
  Over the last five or six round the last five games.
• 14:40
  So you know, 5 carries, 3 yards a clip.
• 14:43
  You know, that's probably. Pretty conservative he could
• 14:46
  get. More, but that gets you. 15
• 14:47
  yards. Which would cash are over?
• 14:50
  14 1/2 now. If you look at the.
• 14:52
  Match up here, I think it's. Pretty good for.
• 14:53
  Gainwell, the Commanders are giving up 142 rushing yards per
• 14:57
  game. That's 28th in the NFL.
• 15:00
  In particular last three games. They're giving up 160. 7 rushing
• 15:04
  yards, so they're kind of getting gouged here.
• 15:06
  In terms of the. Rushing attack for the opposing.
• 15:08
  Team and if you look at the Eagles.
• 15:10
  And the Commanders, they're both top five in NFL passing yards
• 15:15
  allowed per game. They are, I think I.
• 15:17
  Want to say Phillies 3 and maybe?
• 15:19
  Washington's 5, but they have pretty good passing.
• 15:23
  Defenses. But yet you know if.
• 15:26
  You look at the rushing. Attack again.
• 15:28
  Washington can get shredded. Here so hopefully that.
• 15:31
  Is an advantage to gain. Well.
• 15:33
  Hopefully that's also an advantage.
• 15:34
  To the under like if we. Are playing an.
• 15:36
  Over We want a good passing attack because it's quicker to
• 15:39
  score. When you're throwing the ball
• 15:40
  versus running the ball. Running the ball, you chew up
• 15:42
  the clock and it's a benefit to the under.
• 15:44
  So these are two teams that can. Run it.
• 15:47
  And they can defend the. Pass Let's chew up the clock.
• 15:51
  Maybe Philly will also look. To exploit Washington on the
• 15:53
  ground versus in the air. So it.
• 15:55
  It's not like a correlative. Play, but you know, hopefully.
• 15:57
  We're getting more running than throwing and I'm going.
• 16:00
  To go gain well over. 14 Half again rhythms got.
• 16:02
  Closer to a 16. It's not a.
• 16:04
  Huge rhythm edge. It is a slight rhythm edge.
• 16:07
  But it's not like. He's predicted to get 25 and
• 16:09
  it's a, you know, 10 yard gap, but I think the game script
• 16:12
  hopefully will lend. Lend it to hopefully.
• 16:15
  A good a good gain well game tonight so.
• 16:17
  Gain well over 14. And a half rushing yards.
• 16:20
  And Washington, Philly, the under 49 1/2.
• 16:24
  Now I'll be. Honest with you guys.
• 16:26
  I need a night off from the NHL. It's driving me nuts.
• 16:30
  I feel like we're getting good sharp line.
• 16:31
  Moves that aren't coming through.
• 16:32
  So I know there's. A10 Pack tonight, NHL.
• 16:35
  You're in time out right now. NBA There's only one game.
• 16:38
  Mavericks and jazz didn't really see much either way.
• 16:41
  In terms of the side of the total.
• 16:42
  So I went. To the college basketball slate.
• 16:44
  And I'll tell you I found a couple.
• 16:45
  Interesting things in college basketball.
• 16:48
  So on the one hand. You know our system that.
• 16:51
  Again, low bet obscure. Sharp line moves which.
• 16:53
  Have been great for years, just we're not.
• 16:54
  Good last night O. And three there really.
• 16:57
  Aren't any of those tonight? So I started to look at the
• 16:59
  totals. And here's what I was.
• 17:00
  Thinking I was. Thinking it is.
• 17:02
  Really. In the season.
• 17:03
  Again, I have a lot of faith in that.
• 17:06
  Obscure line move system. You know, progressing positively
• 17:09
  and as you get deeper in the year, especially when we get to
• 17:11
  conference games, that's when you really can make a lot of
• 17:13
  money. That's when we'll get back to
• 17:15
  betting a lot of a lot of sides, like if you have a really
• 17:18
  heavily bet, you know. Kentucky, UNC and.
• 17:21
  Kentucky's getting 80. Percent, but they drop, you know
• 17:23
  -5 to -4 and we can go the other way and take the dog contrarian
• 17:28
  heavily betting the points like that is going to be a go to.
• 17:30
  Once we get to conference play, but I was looking at the totals
• 17:34
  and the first thing I noticed about.
• 17:35
  Some of these totals tonight is like.
• 17:37
  They've moved a lot. Like maybe you have.
• 17:39
  A total of like 1. 50 and now it's up to 155.
• 17:43
  And I'm like, OK, on the one hand that tells me.
• 17:46
  There was a lot of. Respective money that came in.
• 17:48
  On the over. To take the line up.
• 17:50
  But then on the other hand I'm saying OK, I know the over got
• 17:53
  hit. But if it's at 1:00. 55 and I'm
• 17:56
  going. Over 150.
• 17:57
  Five and an open one. 50 I'm kind of getting the worst of
• 17:59
  the. Number and I never want to do
• 18:01
  that I. Want to try?
• 18:02
  To get the best. Of the number.
• 18:03
  You can never. Guarantee a win, but you can
• 18:05
  guarantee that. You know, kind of try.
• 18:07
  To do your best to shop around and hopefully get down on a bet.
• 18:11
  Before it moves too much. So I noticed a lot of these
• 18:13
  totals. Boy, they have really moved a
• 18:15
  lot. Most of them have gone up a lot.
• 18:17
  Then I say OK. Let's see if we.
• 18:20
  Can maybe play some value? Bets here and what do I mean by
• 18:22
  that? I mean.
• 18:24
  Like if a total goes one. 50 to 155, we know it went up.
• 18:28
  But let's say rhythm. Says the total.
• 18:29
  Should be 151. Let's say Ken Palm says the
• 18:31
  total should be 150. You know one. 50 or 151.
• 18:36
  Then we're thinking, OK. Maybe we can.
• 18:38
  Buy low, Maybe we can. Basically or sell high I.
• 18:41
  Guess in this point. Where we are basically.
• 18:44
  Playing a value play where? We're kind of saying to
• 18:46
  ourselves, hey, the market has moved so much that it now
• 18:49
  creates an. Opportunity to.
• 18:51
  Kind of hit the high. Watermark and go the other way.
• 18:53
  So. I stumbled on three games
• 18:55
  tonight that kind of fit that bill, so it's a bit of an
• 18:57
  experiment, but I need a night. Off from sides.
• 19:00
  And there weren't. Really any indicators?
• 19:02
  Tonight anyway, so I said. Let's give this total.
• 19:05
  System or experiment a shot. So I leaned.
• 19:07
  On three of them. I'll tell you the first one.
• 19:09
  First one is 8:00 tonight. It's Oklahoma State, host to
• 19:14
  Southern Illinois. Now this is a pretty.
• 19:16
  Big number to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State Open.
• 19:18
  As around A10 point. Favorite they've been bet.
• 19:21
  Up to around a 12 point favorite, I'll walk you.
• 19:23
  Through this too how to use? Ken Palm to your advantage, you
• 19:25
  got to pay for the membership. It's only 20 bucks.
• 19:27
  Again, I'm not touting for Ken Palm.
• 19:29
  I have no. Affiliation with him he's just.
• 19:32
  Great analytics and I think it's a great value play to get these
• 19:35
  projections here for only 20 bucks.
• 19:37
  But anyway. You go to Ken Palm.
• 19:39
  You log. In for the paid membership, you
• 19:40
  go to fan match, then you go to. Oklahoma State.
• 19:44
  So Ken Palm is Oklahoma. State winning by 9.
• 19:48
  Basically, you got to do a little math.
• 19:49
  He has Oklahoma State winning. 82 to 70. 3 So to split the.
• 19:53
  Difference. That's a nine.
• 19:54
  Point game, which at this point if you're getting 12.
• 19:57
  With Southern Illinois. You can make a.
• 19:59
  Case that there's a value play there, but I'm look.
• 20:01
  Toward the total this total. Really has risen.
• 20:03
  This southern. Illinois, Oklahoma State Total.
• 20:06
  It's game 733734. It opened at around 1:00. 57
• 20:12
  now. This Oklahoma State Southern
• 20:15
  Illinois total is all the way up to one. 63 1/2.
• 20:20
  So we've literally gone. Up.
• 20:22
  What is that? 6 1/2 points.
• 20:25
  Off the opener again. Open 150.
• 20:27
  Seven. Now you're 163 1/2.
• 20:30
  Some books are at 160. 3 So definitely shop around.
• 20:32
  So I'm saying to myself. Southern Illinois, OK State.
• 20:35
  OK, there's a lot of over money that.
• 20:36
  Came in 157. All the way up to. 163 1/2.
• 20:40
  However, if I'm playing the over now, I'm getting the worst of
• 20:42
  it. Think of it this way if.
• 20:43
  Sharps hit the over 150. 7. 585960 you know, 61 even.
• 20:49
  And this lands 162. They win.
• 20:52
  We lose because. We're late to the party.
• 20:54
  You never want to be late to the party.
• 20:56
  In a betting sense, at least, you could be.
• 20:58
  Fashionably late. Fashionably late to parties that
• 21:00
  you know. Nothing wrong with that I guess.
• 21:02
  So I'm saying to myself. OK if.
• 21:04
  Maybe this is a? Buy low under one. 63 1/2.
• 21:07
  Let's look what Ken Palm. And rhythm have.
• 21:09
  Ken Palm has an. 83 or sorry 82 to 73 game his projection here.
• 21:16
  Add those two numbers up. 155 S Ken Palm has a 155.
• 21:22
  If we're getting under one. 63 1/2.
• 21:24
  That's a pretty good. Edge.
• 21:25
  That's a what, 5678 and a half point edge?
• 21:30
  Then I pop open my rhythm app and my rhythm prediction here.
• 21:33
  Is a 157.2 and a 156. .9. So even if you go off of.
• 21:40
  Rhythm this. Should be around 157.
• 21:43
  Ken Palm says it should be around 1. 55 and basically
• 21:47
  we're. Getting an under 163 1/2.
• 21:50
  So. Basically, reading between the
• 21:51
  lines looks like some. Good value there.
• 21:53
  On that under 160. 3 1/2 The other kind of angle here would
• 21:56
  be kind of a big spread. You know Oklahoma State.
• 21:59
  Is favored now by 12 points. So do they get up big?
• 22:02
  Take their foot off the gas. They're up by 20.
• 22:05
  You know, halfway through the. Second-half do you start?
• 22:06
  To bleed the. Clock and get out of there with
• 22:08
  a win I always like. If I'm betting it under a big
• 22:11
  spread under versus playing it over a short.
• 22:13
  Spread thinking a competitive back and forth game can produce
• 22:16
  more points. That's my first experiment
• 22:18
  tonight, guys. Southern Illinois, Oklahoma.
• 22:19
  State Open 157, you're all the way up.
• 22:22
  To 163 1/2. Ken Palm has a 155.
• 22:25
  Rhythm has a 157. I'm going to buy low and go
• 22:28
  southern Illinois. Oklahoma State under 160. 3 1/2.
• 22:33
  Couple eight games for you, next one Northern Arizona and.
• 22:38
  Pacific now. We're playing that same
• 22:40
  experiment, trying to buy. Low.
• 22:42
  And play an under. After the total has risen.
• 22:44
  Quite a bit. So northern Northern Arizona
• 22:47
  Pacific. Tonight game. 7437. 4410 o'clock
• 22:51
  start first thing you notice. Is once again this.
• 22:54
  Total has really ticked up. This total.
• 22:55
  Open at around 1:50. That's now been bet up to. 154 I
• 23:01
  think it's even. I thought it's a one shop at.
• 23:03
  150. 4 1/2, Yeah. Couple shops at 1:50. 4 1/2 Both
• 23:08
  FanDuel and ESPN. Bets.
• 23:09
  That's my play. I'm going under 150. 4 1/2.
• 23:13
  But it open at 1:50. You up to 154 1/2.
• 23:16
  It's move 4 1/2 points. Now we get to our Ken Palm data
• 23:20
  here. Ken Palm has a. 1:52.
• 23:23
  He's got Pacific winning 78 to 70. 4 Then I look at rhythm.
• 23:27
  Rhythm has a 150.7 and A-150. .1.
• 23:31
  So rhythm is around. 150. One Ken Palms around 1:00. 52 or
• 23:35
  at 1:52. And we're buying low.
• 23:37
  And getting the hook on under one. 54 1/2.
• 23:41
  This is a six point game, so nothing.
• 23:42
  Crazy in terms of a big spread under.
• 23:45
  But once again. We've created a buffer here and
• 23:47
  a bit of a. Buy low or again a sell high
• 23:50
  under. Value bet so.
• 23:52
  Again, this was a one. 50 it's up to 154 1/2.
• 23:56
  Ken Palm has a one. 52 rhythms. Got a 151.
• 23:59
  I'm going to go Pacific Northern Arizona under 150.
• 24:04
  What did I say 1? 50. 4 1/2.
• 24:08
  That's right, 150. 4 1/2. Then last bet 10:00.
• 24:12
  Games Seattle and Cal Poly. Another big line move here.
• 24:16
  With the total now this. Total open at 1:00. 48.
• 24:19
  Seattle and Cal Poly The total is now bet up.
• 24:22
  To 153. So we've seen this total.
• 24:26
  Tick up about 5 points. Let me just pull up the game
• 24:29
  here. On my app.
• 24:33
  But if we go to Ken Palm. And we look at his.
• 24:35
  Projection for this game. He has Seattle winning 77 to 68.
• 24:40
  So that is a. 1:45 So if we're getting a 1:45 with Ken Palm.
• 24:47
  And. Seattle is now A1. 53.
• 24:52
  Thinking Do you have a? 153 1/2 out there?
• 24:54
  Doesn't look like it, but Caesar's is 153.
• 24:57
  There's a lot of one. 52 1/2's out there so try to get the one.
• 24:59
  53 if you can. I got that at Caesar's.
• 25:03
  But under 153? Ken Palm.
• 25:05
  Has a 145 rhythm. Has a one. 51.5 and a 149. .7 so
• 25:13
  Ken Palm. 'S got a 145 rhythm has a one.
• 25:15
  51153. And we are buying low on an
• 25:19
  under one. 53. Which opened at 1:48.
• 25:22
  So once again. Value play here.
• 25:25
  So add it all up here guys. Let's see if we can maybe get 2
• 25:28
  out of these. Three looking at some.
• 25:30
  Sell high I. Guess I should call it buy low
• 25:33
  is more of it falls in your buying low.
• 25:35
  Sell high. Of course it rises in your, you
• 25:37
  know, kind of. Selling high?
• 25:38
  And betting the under. But those are some bets.
• 25:40
  Here tonight, then I'm going to see if we can maybe.
• 25:43
  Take advantage of some. Value and some line moves that
• 25:45
  have moved so much. That they now create a.
• 25:47
  Little bit of opportunity to sell high and go the other way.
• 25:51
  So again, let's see if we can get two out of three.
• 25:54
  So that about does everybody. Another pod here in the books on
• 25:57
  a big Thursday looking for a bounce back day.
• 26:00
  But of course, this is the part of the pod where we wrap.
• 26:02
  Things up and I start. First by asking you a favor 1st
• 26:05
  I'm going to say thank you. Of course for taking.
• 26:07
  The time out of your day to pull up.
• 26:09
  A chair to the virtual bar and sweat some sharp contrarian
• 26:11
  breakdowns. With me secondly, could you?
• 26:14
  Please help me to grow this. Podcast by doing something so.
• 26:17
  Easy. So simple, so painless.
• 26:20
  Just by giving this. Podcast A five star review if
• 26:22
  you're listening on Spotify or iTunes.
• 26:24
  Go to the rate and. Review give it 5.
• 26:26
  Stars it would. Mean a lot to me.
• 26:27
  Help us to grow the pod. Continue to get more listens,
• 26:30
  more more exposure if you want to give it a nice.
• 26:33
  Review. That'll be great.
• 26:34
  If you want to click the follow. Button.
• 26:36
  That way you get. Alerted as soon as it drops each
• 26:37
  day if you want to. Recommend it to a friend.
• 26:40
  That'll be fantastic as well, but I would very much appreciate
• 26:43
  a five star review. Secondly, if you enjoy.
• 26:45
  The pod aside. From a bad night last night?
• 26:48
  Hey, that's betting it's going to happen.
• 26:49
  Sometimes, but if you enjoy. The pod you enjoy, the
• 26:51
  breakdowns maybe you've. Learned a thing or two.
• 26:54
  Since listening to the pod. Maybe you've now been.
• 26:57
  I don't know, kind of. Accustomed to a different.
• 26:58
  Style of sports betting. Which is really based on data,
• 27:01
  not on guts it got. Instinct or bias?
• 27:04
  But if the data-driven approach. Appeals to you or?
• 27:06
  You want to learn more about data-driven betting?
• 27:08
  Or maybe you have somebody in your life, A friend, a
• 27:11
  colleague, a family member. Who's into?
• 27:13
  Sports betting or wants to get into sports?
• 27:14
  Betting and has no freaking. Clue how to get started?
• 27:18
  Guess what? You should recommend or buy my
• 27:21
  book. I wrote a book, It's called the.
• 27:22
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 27:24
  Just go to. Amazon.com and type in the
• 27:26
  Everything guide to sports betting.
• 27:27
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry, how lines are
• 27:30
  set. How and why they move?
• 27:31
  How to? Read Line movement how to.
• 27:32
  Locate sharp action How to place the bet in person?
• 27:34
  Online how to shop for the best line?
• 27:36
  How to set? Up a bankroll management.
• 27:37
  Plan. It's all included.
• 27:39
  In the Everything guide to sports betting.
• 27:41
  So pick up a copy. Guess what, I'll.
• 27:43
  Bring it to the book. I'll sign it for you.
• 27:45
  I'll buy you a. Beer or ginger ale?
• 27:47
  Or maybe a shot after last night's results.
• 27:50
  Next, of course, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial
• 27:53
  of Juice Reel or? Rhythm yet?
• 27:54
  Well, if you haven't. Now's the time to do it.
• 27:57
  Especially with, of course, you know, college basketball in full
• 28:00
  swing now. But Rhythm is great for their AI
• 28:02
  backed models and predictions. Real.
• 28:04
  Best bets for game bets. And player props rhythm of
• 28:07
  course, which now all the. All systems go.
• 28:11
  Best bets will be available. On on, on, Juice Reel on, the
• 28:14
  social tab tweeted. Out I'll tweet it out again
• 28:17
  today, but you can follow the Robo Jackson best.
• 28:20
  Bet picks. You can follow the.
• 28:21
  All systems go. Best bet picks you can also look
• 28:25
  at. Sharp.
• 28:26
  Mush indicators. Here you'll have.
• 28:28
  The breakdown of a game where OK majority of sharp.
• 28:31
  Betters in the upper on this side and the bad betters are on
• 28:33
  that side. It's just kind of another cherry
• 28:35
  on top or. Box you can check when you're
• 28:37
  trying to figure out where the sharp.
• 28:38
  Money is at also arbitrage plays.
• 28:41
  They pop up each day where you can grind out a profit by
• 28:43
  betting those risk ratios at different books on basically
• 28:47
  different sides of the same. Bet and then.
• 28:49
  You're going to get. Those dollar.
• 28:50
  Breakdowns as well as great. Shopping for the best line
• 28:52
  Opportunities for futures. Bets.
• 28:54
  So both rhythm and juice reel great.
• 28:56
  Sports betting apps that help me win I.
• 28:58
  Want them to help you? Win so you can.
• 28:59
  Sign up for that by. Clicking those custom links.
• 29:02
  That are located in the bio description.
• 29:04
  Of each podcast. So for today's pod, it'll.
• 29:06
  Say something like in episode. 163 dot.
• 29:08
  Josh dishes out A5. Pack of sweats scroll right.
• 29:12
  After that, Scroll down a. Little bit.
• 29:13
  You'll see a link to. Rhythm and Juice reel.
• 29:15
  Then you'll get right into those seven day free trials.
• 29:18
  So that about does it, everybody hoping.
• 29:20
  For a bounce back day after a brutal, just almost comical
• 29:24
  night last night. We're reading lines correctly
• 29:27
  and just getting our getting taken to the woodshed, which is
• 29:30
  not. Fun, but again, sometimes that.
• 29:32
  Happens unfortunately. I wish it didn't, but it does.
• 29:36
  But here's the thing, there's a couple.
• 29:38
  Things I want to leave you with one.
• 29:40
  Whether I see you at the. Borgata in Atlantic.
• 29:42
  City Twin River in Rhode. Island, The Brooklyn, New
• 29:43
  Hampshire. Foxwoods.
• 29:45
  Or Mohegan. Sun down in Connecticut.
• 29:46
  At the Encore in Boston or Plain Rich.
• 29:48
  Park Casino. Or MGM Springfield and my neck
• 29:50
  of the woods in. Massachusetts.
• 29:52
  They're out in the desert where the true grinders get down,
• 29:54
  where Billy Walters sends his number runners.
• 29:56
  Where the lowest juice possible. Is found at the South point.
• 29:59
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian. Plays.
• 30:00
  Jumping in the stadium swim pool when?
• 30:02
  You cash a big ticket. Whatever it may be.
• 30:04
  You can show me the. Lakers over.
• 30:06
  But other than that. All these.
• 30:08
  Pathetic Losers. Dartmouth, Wofford.
• 30:10
  Southern Capitals. Having a three to one lead and
• 30:13
  against a. Team on the.
• 30:14
  Second leg of the back, that was just disgusting.
• 30:17
  The canes the the college football over.
• 30:20
  RIP them up. Recycle them and we'll we'll
• 30:23
  move on hopefully for some winners here for today.
• 30:26
  But that about does everybody as always.
• 30:29
  Leave you with some. Parting words.
• 30:30
  Stay sharp, stay contrary and bet against the.
• 30:32
  Public Place yourself on the side of the house.
• 30:34
  Always be with. The smart money never against
• 30:36
  it. Will smart money win every time?
• 30:38
  Unfortunately. It won't.
• 30:40
  Dartmouth and Wofford both beat the closing lines by a point or
• 30:43
  point and 1/2. They both lose.
• 30:44
  We did our part. The team on the court didn't do
• 30:47
  theirs, but here's the big Here's the.
• 30:48
  Important thing to remember. Sometimes sharp plays lose, but
• 30:51
  over the long haul, over. Thousands of bets that we're.
• 30:54
  Going to make in our life. Maybe 10s of thousands Maybe.
• 30:57
  Millions, hopefully. Let us bet in the.
• 30:58
  Afterlife so I can, you know, kind of still sweat when I'm
• 31:02
  hopefully you know, somewhere else.
• 31:05
  Even though you might lose 1 off here and there, sharp money is
• 31:08
  going to win. 55 to 60. Percent of the time
• 31:11
  historically. So if we can find that sweet
• 31:13
  spot. Stick to the model.
• 31:14
  Stick to the blueprint after a good day.
• 31:16
  Or a bad day? Never.
• 31:17
  Too high, never too low. We can do that.
• 31:20
  And bet against the public. With the house, with the.
• 31:22
  Pros flat bet avoid. Parlays and get that CLV if we
• 31:25
  can do. That we're going to be
• 31:26
  successful sports bettors. So have a fantastic Thursday
• 31:29
  night, everybody. Let's see if we can.
• 31:30
  Find a way to get. Three out of five tonight.
• 31:33
  And eke our way hopefully to a bounce back night and then I'll
• 31:36
  be. Right back at it.
• 31:37
  For a big Friday edition of the all systems go sports betting
• 31:40
  pod which I should have a. Biting.
• 31:42
  System match for you, which I'm excited about.
• 31:44
  We'll also unveil our final. College football and NFL.
• 31:47
  Card as well. But we'll talk about it.
• 31:49
  All on episode 160. Four of the all.
• 31:52
  Systems Go sports betting podcast.
• 31:53
  Powered by Rhythm for Tomorrow. On a big Friday.
• 31:57
  So good luck everybody. Have a great night and I'll see
• 31:59
  you tomorrow.