Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 10/29/26: Ealy Vote Doom For GOP, Shock Polls In SC & KS, Bill Gates Dire AI Warning

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10/29/26: Ealy Vote Doom For GOP, Shock Polls In SC & KS, Bill Gates Dire AI Warning · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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• 0:15
  Speaker 2: Join us now to break down all things midterms, the
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: early vote, how the votes are going to come in,
• 0:20
  Speaker 2: what the polls look like. Is Zachary Danini someone I've
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  Speaker 2: been really looking forward to speaking with? He is with
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  Speaker 2: VoteHub and his analysis on Twitter and elsewhere has been invaluable,
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  Speaker 2: certainly to me.
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  Speaker 1: So, Zachary, welcome.
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  Speaker 4: Thank you very much for having me on.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, of course. So we were just talking to Abdul El-Sayed.
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  Speaker 2: So I thought we would start with this because you
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  Speaker 2: just posted a long piece on how the votes are
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  Speaker 2: likely to come in in Michigan. And so for all
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: of the people who are anticipating these results on election night,
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: how is this going to unfold? Where are the votes
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  Speaker 2: going to come from initially? What do you expect here?
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  Speaker 4: Yeah, so I'll zoom out a little.
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  Speaker 3: The U.S.
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  Speaker 4: Doesn't make it easy on us, right? Because each state
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  Speaker 4: kind of conducts their own elections. Obviously, there are federal
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  Speaker 4: laws and regulations they need to stick to, but how
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  Speaker 4: ballots are cast, how they're counted, up to the states.
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  Speaker 4: Within each state, usually, it's counties counting the specific ballots.
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  Speaker 4: Then even within Michigan, within counties, you have towns, cities,
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  Speaker 4: townships counting in different ways. So this makes it for
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  Speaker 4: a pretty chaotic process that we study up on a
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  Speaker 4: lot before a big night like next Tuesday. And how
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  Speaker 4: Michigan works is there is a bit of preprocessing of
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  Speaker 4: absentee ballots. But these mail-in ballots that come in late,
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  Speaker 4: on Monday, on Tuesday, so not late as in after
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  Speaker 4: the election, I mean, but just later, are often counted
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  Speaker 4: right at the end in these major cities, Flint, Saginaw, Detroit,
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  Speaker 4: Ann Arbor. And these are very blue areas, and these
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  Speaker 4: are very blue ballots. So what this means, just all together,
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  Speaker 4: is after 3 a.m., when we have almost, I don't know, 15, 20%
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  Speaker 4: of the vote left in Michigan, those last 15 or 20%
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  Speaker 4: of the votes are going to be very good for Al-Sayed,
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  Speaker 4: and he could come back if he's losing by a little.
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  Speaker 3: Was this similar, Zachary, to what happened in 2024? I
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  Speaker 3: know Mike Rogers and others have said stuff like this
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  Speaker 3: in the past.
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  Speaker 2: Go ahead. Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: So in 2020, we saw across the country these absentee
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  Speaker 4: ballots getting counted last, and that was the whole thing
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  Speaker 4: that happened with January 6th and the fraud claims, et cetera.
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  Speaker 4: So a lot of states were like, okay, we need
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  Speaker 4: to fix this basically after 2020. So now in states
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  Speaker 4: like Pennsylvania, Georgia, those ballots are counted first. Michigan, Wisconsin
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  Speaker 4: are the two states still, and we saw this some
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  Speaker 4: in 2024, where you get still these late drops of
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  Speaker 4: tranches of blue ballots from places like Milwaukee, Detroit, that
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  Speaker 4: can shift toward Democrats. And we saw this with SLOC
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  Speaker 4: in closing really well in 2024.
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  Speaker 1: Gotcha.
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  Speaker 2: So everybody can go ahead and drop your nightmare scenarios.
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  Speaker 2: The Senate is coming down to Michigan and it goes
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: late into the night and then there's a big Detroit
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  Speaker 2: mail drop. And you can imagine how much chaos Trump
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: is going to pull if that ends up being the scenario. But, Zachary,
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  Speaker 2: I wanted to get your overall take on what you're
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  Speaker 2: seeing in the early vote. And perhaps you could just
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: start with what we can and can't learn from the
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  Speaker 2: early vote because those caveats are important. but also if
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  Speaker 2: there are any particular trends that are sticking out to
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  Speaker 2: you that you have found noteworthy thus far.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah.
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  Speaker 4: So, of course, caveats with early voting. We don't know
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  Speaker 4: who people are voting for. We know many of the
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  Speaker 4: people who are voting. We don't even know everyone who's
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  Speaker 4: voting yet. But in some states like Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas,
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  Speaker 4: we're talking about over two thirds of the votes being
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  Speaker 4: cast before Election Day. And what we like to do
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  Speaker 4: isn't just look at the overall number and say, oh,
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  Speaker 4: more Democrats are voting than Republicans. That's great, or something
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  Speaker 4: for Democrats, because that always happens. Election Day is always
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  Speaker 4: going to be more red. But what we really like
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  Speaker 4: to do is look at people who don't often vote
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  Speaker 4: in the past, people who it's a feat, an achievement
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  Speaker 4: to mobilize them, get them off the couch, and have
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  Speaker 4: them cast a ballot. And overwhelmingly, when we're looking at
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  Speaker 4: people who didn't vote in 2022, maybe didn't even vote
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  Speaker 4: in 2024, but are coming out in the last few weeks,
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  Speaker 4: they are disproportionately Democratic, which is good for Democrats because
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  Speaker 4: it means you're reaching deeper into the base. And we
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  Speaker 4: especially see this with two groups. First, young voters. In
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  Speaker 4: 2024 in North Carolina, Gen Z turnout between registered Democrats
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  Speaker 4: and registered Republicans was similar. This year, it's five to one.
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  Speaker 4: Republican youth turnout has fallen off of a cliff. Second,
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  Speaker 4: Hispanic voters, Hispanic turnout is very, very high, whether it's
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  Speaker 4: in Texas or even North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, places where
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  Speaker 4: you don't think there being as many Hispanics, Hispanic turnout
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  Speaker 4: is just very, very strong.
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  Speaker 3: So what's interesting, and I saw this specifically in Florida
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  Speaker 3: and in North Carolina, how much, Zachary, can we extrapolate
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  Speaker 3: state by state data to nationwide? Or is that just
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  Speaker 3: a fool's attitude?
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  Speaker 4: So what I was talking about is those four states, Florida,
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  Speaker 4: North Carolina, Texas, Georgia, and then also I'll toss a
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  Speaker 4: kind of Louisiana in there where we get really, really,
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  Speaker 4: really high quality early vote data. Or in a specific
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  Speaker 4: region of the U.S., kind of the southeast. But North
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  Speaker 4: Carolina and Texas aren't super similar states, right? Texas is
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  Speaker 4: kind of a sunbelt, heavy Hispanic state. North Carolina is
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  Speaker 4: kind of mixed white and black and almost closer to
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  Speaker 4: the mid-Atlantic region now.
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  Speaker 1: And Florida, of course, is just its own thing.
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  Speaker 4: But the reality is that consistently the last two election cycles,
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  Speaker 4: these states did have some red flags for them, for Democrats.
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  Speaker 4: And now they have red flags for Republicans. And even
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  Speaker 4: in other states where we don't feel we have as
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: high quality data to work with, but it's still something.
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  Speaker 4: So that would be Arizona, Nevada, Iowa, Kansas. It's still
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  Speaker 4: we're seeing the similar trends kind kind of come come
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  Speaker 4: out there as well, even if it's not what I'd
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  Speaker 4: lead a conversation with.
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  Speaker 2: So, Zachary, if the two groups that are really turning
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  Speaker 2: up for Democrats in significant ways are young voters and
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  Speaker 2: Hispanic voters, where are the states, the sort of key
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  Speaker 2: battleground states where you would expect those groups to be
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  Speaker 2: most impactful?
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  Speaker 3: Mm hmm.
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  Speaker 4: So I think Texas leads the list in the sense
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  Speaker 4: it's a very Hispanic state. We'll expect about one in
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  Speaker 4: four voters on November 3rd in Texas to be Hispanic.
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  Speaker 4: And then the Democratic base in states like Texas, Arizona,
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  Speaker 4: Florida is more of kind of a young, diverse vote.
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  Speaker 4: On the other hand, states like Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, the
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  Speaker 4: base for Democrats is very highly educated, high engagement white
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  Speaker 4: voters and often in college towns like Madison or Columbus, basically.
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  Speaker 2: So I.
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  Speaker 1: Don't want to.
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  Speaker 4: Overtly say that that just because, for instance, North Carolina,
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  Speaker 4: we're seeing a situation where the electorate just by registration. Again,
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  Speaker 4: we don't know who they're voting for. But these people,
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  Speaker 4: when you register to vote in North Carolina, you say,
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  Speaker 4: I'm a Democrat, I'm a Republican and correlates heavily.
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  Speaker 1: With vote choice.
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  Speaker 4: We're seeing a situation where the electorate in North Carolina.
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  Speaker 4: could be up to 10 points more blue alone just
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  Speaker 4: on who's turning out. That would be Harris winning the
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  Speaker 4: people who turn out in 2026 in North Carolina by seven.
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  Speaker 4: And that is a North Carolina specific thing. We are
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  Speaker 4: not seeing this anywhere else so far. But when you're
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  Speaker 4: just seeing that type of environment in a state, obviously
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  Speaker 4: states will be different. But still, just the overall picture,
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  Speaker 4: states just range from Mediocre to horrific for Republicans so
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  Speaker 4: far in what we're seeing.
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  Speaker 3: Wow.
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  Speaker 2: OK.
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  Speaker 3: Can we put C6 up on the screen?
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  Speaker 1: This is interesting. This is from Signal. It's a GOP pollster.
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  Speaker 3: And they say among those who have already voted, 6
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  Speaker 3: percent of Republicans have voted for the Democratic candidate, while
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  Speaker 3: 0 percent Democrats have voted for Republicans. Among independents, Democrats
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  Speaker 3: are winning by 37 points. Almost all Republican crossover comes
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  Speaker 3: from voters who identify as mostly Republican voters.
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  Speaker 1: Rather than strongly Republican.
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  Speaker 3: So if that does hold, how would you see that
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  Speaker 3: and extrapolate.
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  Speaker 1: It to some of the data that we've seen so far?
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  Speaker 4: So the early voting stuff, a lot of what we
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  Speaker 4: just talked about is turnout, right? There are two ingredients
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  Speaker 4: in the recipe to win elections. One is good turnout.
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  Speaker 4: People who are more likely to vote for you than not,
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  Speaker 4: you want them to come out and vote. Second is persuasion,
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  Speaker 4: which is there are people who are pretty high engagement,
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  Speaker 4: but they switch cycle to cycle. And it might not
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  Speaker 4: be too many people. It might be 5% or 7%
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  Speaker 4: of the electorate. But that's the big swings we see
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  Speaker 4: from election to election. And so far, you know, it's Democrats.
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  Speaker 4: Turnout looks quite good for them. We're seeing that in
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  Speaker 4: this early voting data. And persuasion looks quite good for Democrats.
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  Speaker 4: We're seeing these polls where Trump is 20 points underwater.
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  Speaker 4: I mean, it shouldn't be a surprise when we're looking
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  Speaker 4: at then these national generic ballot polls. And we see
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  Speaker 4: a lot of people who said they voted for Trump
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  Speaker 4: in 2024 are now supporting Democrats. But so let's slow
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: down here.
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  Speaker 5: All right.
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  Speaker 4: Everything sounds great for Democrats, Zachary, right? Why is the
• 8:52
  Speaker 4: Senate not a lock? Why would you also say the
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: Senate's very competitive? The answer is because Democrats are fighting
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  Speaker 4: this battle on red turf. They have to win two
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  Speaker 4: states out of Iowa, Ohio, Texas, Alaska. Trump won all
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  Speaker 4: four of those states by double digits in 2024. Things
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: are going very well for Democrats and better be going
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  Speaker 4: very well for Democrats if they want a chance to
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  Speaker 4: win Texas. chance to win Alaska. These are not states
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  Speaker 4: that Democrats normally contend in. A Tallarico one point loss
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  Speaker 4: in Texas would be the best performance for a Democrat
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  Speaker 4: in the state in 32 years.
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  Speaker 1: And at this point, it would still be a big
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  Speaker 1: disappointment for Democrats.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Zachary, you had to quick move locations because
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: there was a meeting about to start there, although I
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: kind of like this new background better. But you were
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: saying 2022, tale of two candidates, pick up where you
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: left off. Yes.
• 9:38
  Speaker 4: A tale of two candidates and two races in 2022.
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  Speaker 4: So first of all, let's go to New York three.
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  Speaker 4: This is a seat that Biden won by double digits
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  Speaker 4: on Long Island. And there were some negative things for
• 9:48
  Speaker 4: Democrats going on. Kathy Hochul did not perform very well
• 9:52
  Speaker 4: in that gubernatorial election. There was some general fatigue from
• 9:56
  Speaker 4: New York voters in general against Democratic leadership. And Republicans
• 10:01
  Speaker 4: flipped the seat, even though Biden won it by double digits.
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: We'll go to Washington three. Republicans nominated Joe Kent there.
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  Speaker 4: This is a seat that Trump won. And in a
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: red year, you'd think this would be a lock for Republicans.
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  Speaker 4: Most forecasters, race raters had it as a seat that
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: Republicans should win.
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  Speaker 1: But Joe Kent, who had some ties to.
• 10:19
  Speaker 4: Fringe right groups, turned out to be a terrible candidate
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  Speaker 4: and ended up losing a district he should have won.
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: And this is something we see happen more in midterm years,
• 10:28
  Speaker 4: like 2022 was, 2026 is, because there's no national race
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: that's tying everything together. Different states and different candidates are
• 10:36
  Speaker 4: going to see bigger or smaller shifts usually toward or
• 10:40
  Speaker 4: away from Democrats. And in the case of Susan Collins
• 10:43
  Speaker 4: in Maine, even a shift toward Republicans in a blue year,
• 10:46
  Speaker 4: just because She's such a strong candidate.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: In the past.
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: Well, Zachary, we really appreciate your time, man. Thank you
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: for all of this breakdown and for bearing with us
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: as you had to change rooms. But excellent analysis. We'll
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: have a link to your Twitter in our description. We
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: recommend everybody go and follow him.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you, Zachary. Take care.
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: Turning now to polls. Well, what we have is some
• 11:09
  Speaker 3: very interesting ones from The New York Times.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: Absolute shocker. Let's put it up here on the screen.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: D1.
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  Speaker 3: Where we have the Senate race that is in the
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: state of South Carolina, officially a toss-up, according to them. 48-48, Dr.
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: Annie Andrews tied with Lindsey Graham's sister, Darlene Graham. In Florida,
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: they find a much tighter race than originally expected, with
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: Ashley Moody at some 50%, Angie Nixon at 44%. Another
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: big headline out of this, which is a crazy, crazy finding.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: is Flanagan at 54 and Tafoya only at 40. Previous
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: polls out of the state of Minnesota had this to
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: be a three- or a four-point race. Obviously, we had
• 11:54
  Speaker 3: seen some tightening in the state of South Carolina, Crystal,
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: and we knew also that South Carolina had been visited
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: by Donald Trump, that they were putting $ 5 million in,
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: that Darlene Graham's campaign significantly seemed in trouble. This Darlene
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: Graham situation seems very emblematic of the whole Kemp-Paxton situation.
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: problem where if he was a normal John Cornyn Republican,
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: I think they would probably win, maybe not by a lot, but,
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: you know, maybe one or two points, which it shouldn't
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: be that close in the first place. But you have
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: a Democratic wave, an energized Democratic base, in addition to
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: an absolute joke of a candidate here with a woman
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: who who literally said something like foreign policy is not
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: my expertise. I mean, that's completely insane, considering that's the, quote,
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: legacy of your dead brother, who for some reason that
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: makes you qualified to be in the United States Senate. Remember,
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: not just appointed to full out the rest of his term.
• 12:49
  Speaker 3: but for a full six year term to the United
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: States Senate to represent South Carolina in the Senate. And
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: so regardless of whether Darlene Graham, you know, pulls this
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: off and we'll see the humiliating display now so far
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: is just enough of a problem for Republicans who don't
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: need to be spending money and spending Donald Trump's time
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: in the state if they want to try and hang
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: on here. It's just it's humiliating for them. It absolutely is.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I mean, we'll give that we'll just give the caveat.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: It's the New York Times, one poll. It could be
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: totally wrong, and we'll get to that in a second.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Of course.
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: Focusing on South Carolina first to begin with, even though
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: the Minnesota poll is in some ways just as striking
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: and more of an outlier, actually, from what the South
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: Carolina poll shows, because other polls have shown very similar dynamic.
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: One of the things that seems to be impacting some
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: of these races in the South is extraordinary Black turnouts.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: And some of the analysis I've seen is this has
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: a lot to do with the Supreme Court ruling on
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: majority Black districts, that that has really motivated people. You're
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: seeing a particularly striking turnout in Louisiana, which is the
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: state that was the focus of that Supreme Court ruling.
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: So any of the states that have significant Black populations,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: that may end up being a very critical factor. South
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: Carolina is one of those states that has a relatively
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: significant Black population. Another issue is I don't really understand
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: all of the intraparty beef here, but Darlene Graham's opponent
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: in the primary comes from the western part of the state,
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: Greenville-Spartanburg area. I know well because I went to Clemson
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: University for a while. And they apparently are not feeling
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: Darlene Graham. And the polling reflects her really underperforming with
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: Republicans in that part of the state. That being said,
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: I've been watching a lot of Nate Silver podcasts lately,
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: and he basically put it like, It's possible for Annie
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: Andrews to win, but it's going to have to be
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: like a parlay. Like, all of these things are going
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: to have to hit. The Black turnout has to be crazy.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: The underperformance in the western part of the state. Republicans
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: stay home. Democrats come out. Like, that's the way it's
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: going to have to be. White college educated voters in
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: South Carolina are much more conservative than in a lot
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: of other parts of the country. And there are much
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: less of a sort of swing between the parties kind
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: of demographic. So that makes the landscape very difficult. I think,
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: you know, I do think Annie Andrews is in the hunt.
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: I think it is possible for her, but it's still
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: just for me, it's still hard to imagine she's going
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: to be able to fully pull it off. If she does,
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: we are in really wild territory on the Minnesota piece.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: If we could talk about that for a minute. So
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: this result to me is actually less crazy than it
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: seems on its face, simply because Minnesota is a state.
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: that if the generic ballot nationwide truly is D plus 11,
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: you would expect the Democratic candidate to win by double digits,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: whether it's 10 or 14, somewhere in there. Now, you
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: might say, on the other hand, OK, well, Peggy Flanagan
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: is associated. She's part of the Tim Walz government. It's unpopular.
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: They've had all these issues with fraud. That's dragging her down. True.
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: On the other hand, Minnesota is also the focus of these,
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: you know, Minnesota, Minneapolis, with all of this, you know,
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: insane ICE activity that really inflamed Democratic voters and independents,
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: by the way, in the state. So if you kind
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: of take those as a wash and bring it back
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: to just neutral terrain. It will not shock me at
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: all if we end up with that race not being
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: close at all. And the thing that Nate Cohn points
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: out is that neither party is spending in that race
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: like it's close.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: Neither.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: The Republicans are not acting like this is a battleground
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and like they're just a few points down and they
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: can pull it over the line with a dump truck
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: of money. They're not acting like that whatsoever. And so
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: I think that's a really important tell, too, in terms
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: of whether they think that race is actually in range
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: or not.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: And picking up on that, I do think that this
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: interesting clip from Nate Silver about whether this is the
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: end of the Trump era or not is very relevant.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: So what feels momentous?
• 16:56
  Speaker 6: If the election goes roughly as the polls say it
• 16:59
  Speaker 6: will go, then in some ways it would mark the
• 17:02
  Speaker 6: end of the Trump era. I think he'll still be
• 17:07
  Speaker 6: president for two more years. But the minute the 2028
• 17:09
  Speaker 6: election campaign begins and if Trump has a bad night
• 17:12
  Speaker 6: as polls show, then. he's a super lame duck, right?
• 17:16
  Speaker 6: You might draw an analogy to Bush after 2006.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think that's undoubtedly correct. And I watched
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: this whole podcast with Ezra. I've been, I've mentioned before,
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: I've been listening to a lot of Nate Silver. He
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: has a podcast now with some of the old FiveThirtyEight friends.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: And you have to give him credit for the fact
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: that he has been pretty directionally correct basically every cycle.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: You know, even going back to 2016, He was one
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: of the few that was like, yeah, Trump could still
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: win this thing. You know, yeah, I know what the
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: polls look like, but there's still a chance that, you know,
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that he pulls this off.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Even Ryan got into a fight.
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: Do you remember that?
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Ryan got into a fight with him.
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: Oh, really?
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: No, I don't.
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: But, you know, last cycle with Trump, he basically said,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: I remember this very well. It's kind of a jump ball.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: But if I had to go with my gut, I'd
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: say Trump's going to win. And he was right. And
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: now he is looking at the polling. He's looking at,
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: I think, maybe even more significantly, those quote unquote fundamentals.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: And he's saying it would be crazy to think that
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: Democrats are not going to have a very good night
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: and potentially like a really crazy night. And it is
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: possible that the polls are actually underestimating Democrats. And the
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: way that he explained it, which to me made a
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: lot of intuitive sense, as he said, compare it to
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: twenty eighteen. You know, it's another midterm with Trump where
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: you've got tremendous Democratic energy and enthusiasm. And Democrats had
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: a good night. They won the House. They didn't take
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: the Senate because they had a similarly difficult landscape. But
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: it was overall, you know, Democrats, I think, won the
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: popular vote by like eight points. It was a good
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: night for Democrats. But Trump was still popular on the
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: economy then. His approval rating was not nearly as low.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: We were not mired in a deeply unpopular war. Gas
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: prices were not $ 4. 30 today. Diesel was not at record-breaking levels.
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: So if you think of 2018, plus you layer on
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: top of that deep disapproval of Trump, horrific economic numbers
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: and pain, and a Republican Party that really has no
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: response on the issues that are most critical to people
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: right now, then it becomes not hard to imagine how
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: the bottom really falls out for them.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: I What people need to remember about 07-08 is that
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: Bush really was a side character. And that sounds very
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: strange to say, but that was at the time of
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: the Barack Obama and the Hillary Clinton dramatic primary. To
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: the extent Bush was relevant, it was about what he
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: was doing in Iraq during the entire financial crisis. The
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: story of the financial crisis was always more about Hank
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: Paulson than about what Bush himself was going to do. Bush, remember,
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: famously tried to even push TARP over the line and
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: it didn't work at first because so many Republicans were like, yeah,
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: I'm not going along with you. I mean, people really
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: don't remember how much power he lost entirely in our system.
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: That's really when the Obama era began. So that's what's
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: the interesting thing about the Trump era, because the Trump
• 20:20
  Speaker 3: era has lasted longer than any politician in the United
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: States since FDR. And that is because he did not
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: serve in the middle of those of Joe Biden's term.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: And yet, even though Biden was president, he was a
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: side character to all of the forces that were happening
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: behind the scenes, really, since Trump came down the escalator
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: and Trump's grip on the GOP never broke. So that's
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: what the substantive question of this is, is if you
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: lose multiple red states, which you love won by double digits,
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: then your hold is dead, actually, entirely as a national
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: political figure.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: There really is no coming back from it.
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: And I think what the problem, though, and this is
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: the one issue, which is different than Bush, is that Bush,
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: he would still give Republicans permission to break with him
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: because he was a political pragmatist. Trump will never do that.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: And there is still a MAGA faithful who love Donald
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: Trump or who have a lot of trust in Donald Trump.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: And he and his brittle and narcissistic ego will never
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: allow a J.D. Vance to criticize him. I mean, Crystal,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: I mean, neither of us probably remember it, but I'm
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: sure you've read a little bit about the 2000 election.
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: You know, Bill Clinton was very personally hurt that Al
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: Gore distanced himself from Bill Clinton. In retrospect, it's actually
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: a bad idea. But, you know, at the time, Al
• 21:40
  Speaker 3: thought he was making the right decision. But it's not
• 21:42
  Speaker 3: like Clinton was demanding that Al Gore leave. you know,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: to take him on the campaign trail. He was hurt
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: by it, but he didn't say anything. Trump doesn't have
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: that in him. And so that is the last part
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: of this, which is I'm reluctant to say that we
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: can fully move on from where he's a main character.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: And that's because of Trump himself.
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean, it's going to be a sort of
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: death rattle where Republicans are going to be screwed because
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: they they will pay a price. for breaking with him,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: and they will pay a price for not breaking with him.
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: And you're getting a preview of that in a way
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: with the midterm elections right now, because Trump has decided
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: to put himself at the center of all of these races,
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: you know, going to Michigan, where Mike Rogers has tried
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: to be like, oh, I'm not really on board with
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: this Iran war. Well, now there you are on stage
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: hugging President Trump, and he is a deeply unpopular figure
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: in the state of Michigan. And so his midterm convention
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: down in Texas, Ken Paxton admitted on that leaked audio
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: that that was a disaster for him numbers wise. And
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: the polling bore out that it was actually bad for
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: all Republican candidates took a hit in the polls because
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: of the way he wanted to put himself. at the
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: center of the show and tell people, vote as if
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: I'm on the ballot. Well, guess what? You're underwater in
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: literally every single state in the entire nation. So if
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: people are voting like you're the one on the ballot,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: you're getting wiped down. And so that is the dynamic
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: that I think you're right is going to continue to
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: play out where Republicans will kind of be damned if
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: they do, damned if they don't. But in terms of
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: his dominance of the entire political conversation and the level
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: of sway that he's had, I do think we are
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: coming to an end of an era here, especially if
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: the midterms go the way that they're sort of trending
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: at this point.
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah. If it is an abject blowout. I mean, the
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: real question is whether people have their permission to break
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: from Trump. And I just I don't see that yet.
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: I know you think you see that.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I still don't.
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Here's what I he's never going to give them permission.
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: But what you are going to see is people who
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: some Republicans who calculate exactly what Nate Silver is saying here.
• 23:53
  Speaker 2: This guy's old and he's on the way out. And
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: the next part, what comes after, there's going to be
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: a scramble and there's going to be people positioning themselves
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: in different ways, making different bets about where the smart
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: place to land is ultimately going to be. So there
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: will be some who believe that the smart bet is
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: to now find some principles that especially on something like
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: the Iran war, which is deeply unpopular, right? Or on
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: his incredible earth shattering level of corruption. They may find that,
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: you know what, this is a place where perhaps I
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: should say something, perhaps I should take a stand. So
• 24:31
  Speaker 2: there's going to be a lot of jockeying and you're
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: going to have some people who make the bet that, no,
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: I'm just going to continue to tie myself to Trump.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: But I do think if you have this massive shellacking,
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: including in shocking red states, that you will have some
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: who calculate You know what? Now's the time actually to
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: position myself differently for the future.
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: You know, when we'll really find out is impeachment time
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: is Trump is going to be impeached. We all know
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: it is whether any Republicans will vote. That will be
• 24:59
  Speaker 3: the actual test of whether this is actually going to happen.
• 25:03
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I'm excited to find out. I certainly am.
• 25:08
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: Also wanted to keep our focus today on what is
• 25:11
  Speaker 2: going on in the world of AI. Bill Gates sounding
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: increasingly alarmed about the era that we are entering into,
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: saying that he predicts it will be the most chaotic
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: 20 years in human history. Let's take a listen.
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: My big concern is this 20-year transition period where you'll
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: have winners and losers and a lot of disruption. And
• 25:34
  Speaker 5: we have to get through that. in order to get
• 25:39
  Speaker 5: to that period of abundance.
• 25:40
  Speaker 6: You think it's 20 years from now?
• 25:42
  Speaker 5: You know, I pick that as a reasonably safe number.
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: There's a variety of milestones. For example, humanoid robots, you know,
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: are those two or three years away, as some would say,
• 25:55
  Speaker 5: or more like eight years away, as other people would say.
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: There's not that many people saying that given the amount
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: of capital and number of companies, particularly in China, that
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: are working on that, There's no notion that it's unsolvable
• 26:10
  Speaker 5: to have a hand and fingers and be able to
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: deliver physical labor at very, very low cost. And so
• 26:21
  Speaker 5: I could be wrong about that number. It could be
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: slightly less or slightly more. But on that order of magnitude, yes.
• 26:30
  Speaker 5: If we don't choose to massively slow down or stop, then...
• 26:37
  Speaker 5: We will have robots that can build houses, grow food,
• 26:41
  Speaker 5: do surgery. And none of the things that human labor
• 26:48
  Speaker 5: provides to the economy will be necessary.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: None of the things human labor provide will be necessary.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: 20 chaotic years. I think it's worth noting about Bill Gates,
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: however you feel about him. I've got a lot of
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: thoughts about him myself. This is someone who's obviously not
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: a Luddite, number one. Number two, he's also someone who
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: was initially quite skeptical of the technology itself. The folks
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: at OpenAI had brought him some early versions of ChatGPT,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: and he was like, eh, I'm not really that impressed.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: He thought there would really be a limit to it.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: And then they got to a point where it thoroughly
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: impressed him. And then he was excited about the technology.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: And now he's become quite fearful of where we're going,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: how quickly we're going there and how poorly prepared we are. So,
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: you know, add it to the list of voices of
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: people who know something about the space who are saying
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: that we are about to enter into a period unlike
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: any we have faced in human history. And, you know,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: you always make this point, Sarah, and I think it's
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: such a good one, too. Even he's, he talks about
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: the theoretical abundance once you, you know, if you can
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: survive this gauntlet of the 20 years of chaos that we're,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: you know, being plunged into against all of our wills.
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: And what he describes also is a sort of dystopia
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: that in their minds is is a utopian outcome. So
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: even the good version sounds terrifying. Even the, okay, you
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: survived the 20 years and you get to the other
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: side and we have, quote unquote, abundance, also sounds very
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: disturbing and I think will be uncomfortable for a lot
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: of people.
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: I totally agree.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: And I think this is where the whole probability of doom,
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: this is what's important. Like, oh, AI will kill us.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: It may not kill your body, but it'll kill your spirit.
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: It'll kill what makes being human even remotely important. You know,
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: the robotics piece is actually the one where I was
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: speaking with some people, very knowledgeable, kind of on the frontier.
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: They were telling me on the robotics front, we're about
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: a year away from complex like household and or labor tasks.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: And specifically, the bottleneck is not software. The software exists. Remember,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: we've showed everybody that video of that robot, which was
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: hooked up to the latest chat GPT model. But what
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: it really exists is the production pipeline to be able
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: to build this stuff, economy at scale, then be able
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: to self-regulate. If you take a look at some household items,
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: the leaps in technology are stunning. I'm talking about fridges.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: There are now fridges that are on the market, which
• 29:17
  Speaker 3: can scan the item of food as it goes into
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: your fridge and tells you whenever it expires.
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: This is readily available. You can go and you can
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: buy it at Home Depot.
• 29:25
  Speaker 3: Vacuums, a few other household appliances have new AI interfaces
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: that are built in, which are dramatically better than anything
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: you could buy even two or three years ago, not
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: to mention television. But the actual humanoid type robots, which
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: will immediately be put into place at manual labor, is
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: actually not that far away. And right now we're talking
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: about the white collar workforce reduction. And I don't want
• 29:48
  Speaker 3: to minimize that. Let's put, for example, E3 guys, please,
• 29:52
  Speaker 3: up on the screen. Microsoft, Bill Gates' former company, is
• 29:56
  Speaker 3: now literally going to lay off some 60,000 employees, 60,000,
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: in terms of letting them go and offering buyouts. Now, remember,
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: what we're already watching, let's put E4, is Goldman Sachs'
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: latest estimate. Quote, we are starting to see clear signs
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: that AI impact is spreading beyond the technology sector across
• 30:18
  Speaker 3: non-manufacturing industries, the share of U.S. firms that have adopted
• 30:22
  Speaker 3: AI and regular business now show statistically significant negative correlation
• 30:26
  Speaker 3: with employment growth and statistically significant positive correlation with unemployment.
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: But I actually think there is a hidden jobs crisis,
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: which is not even remotely measurable, and that is the
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: reduction of of entry-level jobs. Entry-level jobs, we can measure
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: a little bit through youth unemployment, but what we can't
• 30:46
  Speaker 3: necessarily measure are all the jobs that would exist if
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: they hadn't had all of this new technology. AI, work
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: from home, a lot of these things are boons for
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: people who are middle management and upper with some career experience.
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: But getting your foot in the door, a lot of that,
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: even though the labor itself you were doing was quite menial,
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: what you were really doing is you're learning how to
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: be an adult in the world.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: You're learning how to.
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: Socialize, you know, a lot of people meet their spouses
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: at work, a lot of people, you know, do stuff
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: like this, right? Or and so what the problem overall
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: of what we're watching is that the reduction in that
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: will create a genuine crisis.
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: I mean, what we're being sold from the ginseng huangs
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: of the world and whatever is, number one, the story
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: about employment that's like, well, every other technological revolution, humans
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: have found other things to do. And number two, when
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: you're asked, OK, well, what sort of things? He'll go
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: to like, well, maybe you'll work at like a high
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: end spa or you'll make artisanal cheese or something like that.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's going to be enough. I know
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure about that. If you look at the
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: trends throughout the modern era of human labor, most humans
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: worked as farmers. And then you have industrial revolution. Then
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: you have most people going into manual labor. And then
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: when you start to have technological automation there, then people
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: go into knowledge work. And you've seen the decline, and
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: this is globally, of manufacturing labor. There's obviously still a
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: lot of people that do that. But by and large,
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: the growth has all been in the knowledge sector. There
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: is nowhere else to go. Right. The last bastion of
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: things that humans do better than machines is to think
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: that's it. That's the last frontier. And so once that's gone, no,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: there isn't anywhere really to turn. Now, maybe and I
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: have socialist friends who think this and communist friends who
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: think this. Maybe it will be better. Maybe it is
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: a better world that we can aspire to where you
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: have fully automated luxury communism and people can focus on
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: things that are deeper meaning, actually, than just being able
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: having to, you know, go in and clock in. And
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: most people hate their jobs and earn a paycheck in
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: this sort of soul sucking way. There probably is a
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: world that exists that would be superior to that and
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: would have better and deeper meaning. But the way we're
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: barreling towards it is with no brakes and no safety
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: net is utterly terrifying because no one has any answers
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: for what people will do with their time. And Sagar,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: you rightly point out that on the current trajectory, the
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: answers about what we're likely to do with our time
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: are quite disturbing, are really quite disturbing indeed. And especially
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: on the track that we're on, where all of the
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: tech is owned in the hands of a handful of people,
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: this is going to result not in some luxury communism.
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: It's going to result in digital feudalism. That is the
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: trajectory that we are very, very clearly on right now.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: I also just wanted to highlight another troubling incident as
• 33:45
  Speaker 2: we continue to stumble through what has been called Black
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: October because of all of the mass cybersecurity incidents that
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: we've had around the world and have been impacting people
• 33:55
  Speaker 2: more and more. Put E2 up on the screen. Now,
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: I want to be clear. It is not 100% clear
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: whether or not this cybersecurity breach was AI-driven. However, experts
• 34:06
  Speaker 2: in the field say you should just assume at this
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: point that any hack you're seeing is being at least
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: partially enabled by AI. So we have a cybersecurity issue
• 34:16
  Speaker 2: that forced a major New Mexico hospital to divert patients
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: and close clinics. They had to race to fix a
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: cybersecurity issue on Monday that forced it to send ambulances
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: to other hospitals, left the state without an emergency department
• 34:31
  Speaker 2: capable of treating the most serious injuries. The University of
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: New Mexico health system told people not to show up
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: at its main hospital in Albuquerque and canceled appointments at
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: its more than 30 clinics. said it was working to
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: resolve the issue, the extent and nature of which was
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: not immediately clear. That network conducts about 900,000 outpatient visits,
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: receives 100,000 emergency room visits each year. It operates the
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: state's only level one trauma center. And this hack took
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: them offline completely for some period of time where they
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: had to completely divert everyone to other systems. This is
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: a glimpse of the world we live in now and
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: what may be coming at us more and more frequently.
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: And it's just a reminder of how vulnerable we are,
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: whether it's the hospital system, whether it's the banking system,
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: whether it's the electrical grid, whether it's public utilities. We
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: just went, well, not us, but these oligarchs in combination
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: with the Trump government decided just to barrel forward with
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: these models, knowing to some extent the risk, understanding the
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: cybersecurity risk, and basically put superhuman cyber hacking capabilities in
• 35:40
  Speaker 2: the hands of anyone who cares to have them around
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: the globe. So that is the world we're living in.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: And we are playing with fire, I think is the
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: best way you can say it.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: I totally agree.
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: My last thought on this, what you were saying about,
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: you know, to great respect to those socialists and communists,
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: I think that reading history, the Industrial Revolution is easily
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: a informing us about what's going to happen. You know,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: we just go, oh, well, the Industrial Revolution happened and
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: it was all fine.
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there was about a.
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: 40 or 50 year period of deaths and mass labor
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: strikes and of social strife, of Great Depressions, of silver panics,
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: of mass suicides.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: And that's if you live in the developed world.
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: Yes, exactly.
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: If you live in the developing world, in a lot
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: of ways, you're still living in that realm.
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you are still living in that realm. You're exactly right.
• 36:26
  Speaker 3: And so let's think about that, what it was like
• 36:28
  Speaker 3: for the people who lived through that 40 or 50
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: year transition. It was one of the most extraordinary transitions
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: of their lifetime. Many of them saw it as some
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: of the hardest and most difficult fights that they ever had.
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: And In our U.S. education system, we learn nothing about
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: the labor movement or the fight for a, you know,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: for a four hour or for a 12.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Hour work day.
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: I mean, just to get lunch breaks was a titanic,
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: titanic effort to make sure that there was unionization and
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: worker protection was one of the greatest struggles of the
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: age in which thousands of people died. Tens of thousands
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: of people, if you count people who died from bad
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: working conditions, disease, they lived I'm not saying that's going
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: to happen to us, but I'm saying that is a
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: very instructive path about how difficult it was to live
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: through that.
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: It's even worse than that, because at least at that
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: point in time, they needed our labor. So we had
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: some leverage. We had some power. If you're talking about
• 37:28
  Speaker 2: a technology that eliminates that need entirely. then what leverage
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: and power do we have left in the system? And that,
• 37:38
  Speaker 2: to me, that dynamic is what is truly terrifying.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: That's right. All right.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Thank you guys so much for watching. We appreciate it.
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: There'll be a Friday show for tomorrow. And don't forget,
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: next week, it's the big one, Election Day.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: We'll see you then.